CRITICAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE
ABANDONMENT OF HOUSING PROJECTS IN
OSOGBO, NIGERIA
1 2
Daniel Ibrahim Dabara and Oluseyi Joshua Adegoke
1
Department of Estate Management, Federal Polytechnic Ede, Nigeria
2
Department of Estate Management, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria
ABSTRACT
The study aims at examining the critical factors influencing the abandonment of housing projects in Osogbo,
Nigeria with a view to providing information that could guide real estate investors' decision making. Through
preliminary investigation, 138 abandoned housing projects were sighted in the study area. The study
purposively distributed questionnaire to 67 owners of abandoned housing projects that were available.
However, only 30 questionnaires were properly filled and retrieved for collation and analysis. Relative
Importance Index (RII) and Multiple Regression Models were used to determine the interrelationships
between housing project abandonment and the factors influencing it. Findings from the study revealed that
insufficient funds was the most critical factor influencing housing project abandonment in the study area (RII
0.892), while change of project scope ranked the least critical factor (RII 0.725). The regression analysis carried
out indicated a high positive correlation of 0.995 between all the variables revealing that the overall model is
statistically significant, [F (19, 10) = 53.956, P = 0.000]. It was recommended among others that before
prospective real estate investors venture into the construction of desired housing projects, it is imperative that
sufficient funds be generated to cater for the proposed project. Similarly, clients should avoid changing the
scope of the project in the middle of the housing project work. This could go a long way in reducing housing
project abandonment in the study area.
Keywords: abandonment, funds, housing, investor, project.
INTRODUCTION
Housing project abandonment is increasingly becoming an issue of concern in the real estate
sector. It has been observed that many cities in developing economies are littered with
abandoned building projects. Osogbo in Osun State, Nigeria, is not an exception. Housing
project abandonment is however not peculiar to Nigeri, but also occurs in countries such as
Spain (Carrero, 2009), United States of America (Hillier, Culhane, Smith & Tomlin, 2003), and
Malaysia (Hoe, 2013). However, in Nigeria this problem which seems to be aggravated by the
current economic recession has generated a lot of concern among real estate stakeholders which
necessitated an in-depth study of the phenomenon.
The abandonment of development projects is seen as the act of discontinuing any activities or
maintenance works on such projects within a time frame of the contract agreement and with no
intention of returning back to the development (Spelman, 1998). Hoe (2013) asserted that a
housing project is said to be abandoned at any level of its developmental stage when there is a
stoppage of any substantial activity on the construction site for duration of time ranging from
six or more consecutive months. Developmental project abandonment of housing units poses
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greater concern to stakeholders and deserves attention because housing is established in
literature to be one of the three basic needs of man (Morckel, 2013; Ihuah & Fortune, 2013). The
housing need has not been completely satisfied in Nigeria. Previous studies such as Ademiluyi
& Raji (2008) and Dabara, Adegoke, Ankeli, & Akinjogbin (2014) posited that there is wide gap
between housing demand and housing supply in the nation with housing deficit running to
about 17 million housing units.
According to Lam & Chua (2005), Mallach (2006), Hollander (2010) and Olalusi & Otunola
(2012), factors influencing abandonment of building projects include: inadequate planning;
weak response to market signal, poor quality control by regulatory agencies; corruption, death
of client, inadequate funds, land disputes, economic recession etc. However, these factors
cannot be generalized as they may be relevant and specific to some countries and not to others
due to differences in both micro and macro economic factors peculiar to these nations.
Abandoned housing projects have negative consequences which can bring both environmental
and socioeconomic effects. The negative effects of abandoned housing projects include threat to
public health, e.g by being used as a refuse dump site; and threat to public security by being
used as hideout for delinquents such as drug users and criminals. Other effects include loss of
jobs and sore visual impact and environmental pollution (Cohen, 2001; Olusegun & Michael,
2011; Han, 2014). In a similar study carried out by Carrero (2009) it was found that the
unpleasant view presented by abandoned housing projects reduces the value of the
surrounding properties. Despite the negative consequences presented by abandoned housing
projects, the subject is not sufficiently studied in most developing economies, hence this study.
The aim of this study is to examine the critical factors influencing abandonment of housing
projects in Osogbo, Nigeria with a view to providing information that could guide real estate
investors in decision making. The study seeks to answer the following questions: What are the
factors influencing abandonment of housing projects in Osogbo, Nigeria? What is the level of
abandoned housing projects in Osogbo? What are the effects of abandoned housing projects in
the study area? What are the factors influencing housing abandonment and the level of
abandoned housing projects in Osogbo? The remaining aspects of the paper are structured as
follows: the review of related literature; the research methodology; the results and discussions,
and the conclusion.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Hillier, et al. (2003) examined the causes of housing project abandonment in the US using
information systems from a database developed to predict risk of housing project
abandonment. The methodology adopted involved the use of logistic regression to analyze the
relationship between housing abandonment and factors influencing the said abandonment.
Findings from the study revealed that characteristics of neighboring buildings, housing code
violations and tax evasion among others are the major predictors of housing project
abandonment in the US. However, the study was conducted in a developed economy which
may present a different scenario when compared to developing economies like Nigeria.
Olusegun & Micheal (2011) investigated the major causes and consequent effects of project
abandonment in Nigeria. Questionnaire survey was used to elicit for data from Architects,
Quantity Surveyors and Civil Engineers in the Southwestern region of Nigeria covering a
period of ten years. RII was used to analyze the data obtained. Findings from the study
180
indicated that inflation, variation of project scope, death of client and political factors among
others constituted the major factors influencing project abandonment in the study area.
However, the study considered building projects generally irrespective of the type of project
(whether residential, commercial, industrial etc) hence the specific characteristics and
peculiarities inherent in different types of building projects were not considered. However this
present study focused on housing projects specifically as results from general constructional
projects cannot be generalized.
Ewa (2013) investigated the major factors influencing project abandonment in Nigerian tertiary
institutions. The study involved the use of structured questionnaire which were administered
on relevant stakeholders (directors of physical planning, directors of works among others) in
the various tertiary institutions. RII as well as frequencies and weighted mean were used in
analyzing the data obtained for the study. Findings revealed that inadequate planning,
inadequate funds, poor contract documentation among others were the major factors
responsible for project abandonment in Nigerian tertiary institutions.
Woka & Miebaka (2014) examined the causative factors responsible for real estate project
abandonment and its resulting effects on real estate values in Nigeria, using RII to analyze the
data obtained through questionnaire administration. Findings revealed lack of adequate funds,
faulty design; and land disputes among others as the major factors influencing project
abandonment in the study area. The resulting effect of the abandonment was property value
decline of adjoining properties. However the study looked at developmental projects in general
which might not capture the individual peculiarities inherent in different types of properties.
Similarly, the study concentrated on the impact of real estate project abandonment on property
values. This present study will consider the effects of housing project abandonment on a wider
range of factors, including economic, social and environmental.
METHODOLOGY
The study area is Osogbo, the capital of Osun State, the seat of administration, as well as the
commercial nerve centre of the state. Influx of people settled in Osogbo in different types of
housing accommodation (either rental or owner occupied). The areas of Osogbo selected for
this study include Abere and Ata Oja estate areas. These areas were purposively selected
because preliminary investigation showed the presence of plenty ongoing housing projects at
different developmental stages, being locations at the outskirt of Osogbo with much vacant
land for developmental projects. Unlike core areas at the center of the town like Okefia, Oja
Oba, Olaiya etc which are already saturated with buildings with little land space for more
developmental building projects. The population for the study consisted of all the owners of
abandoned housing projects in the study area. About 138 abandoned housing projects were
sighted by the researchers through preliminary investigations of the study area. The study
purposively distributed questionnaire to 67 owners of abandoned housing projects that were
available. The questionnaire consisted of two main types of questions: those which required a
specific response from a limited set of choices and those where respondents were asked to
indicate their opinions in their own words. The variables used in the questionnaire were
obtained from the literature; and were used to test the perception of the respondents as to
whether it will be congruent with what is obtainable in literature or otherwise. However, only
30 questionnaire were properly filled and retrieved for collation and analysis representing
44.78% response rate. This is due to the fact that most of the respondents were cold towards the
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research work and some displayed a sense of stigmatization associated with abandoned
housing projects, hence did not provide the needed cooperation. The data elicited from the
respondents were collated and analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistical tools;
and the results are presented in the next section.
A multiple regression model was used to determine the interrelationships between the
dependent variable (housing project abandonment) and the predictors or independent
variables (i.e. factors influencing housing abandonment). The model is not only capable of
handling the problem of interactions amongst the independent variables but also it enables us
to know the contributions or the importance of each variable to the explanation of variation in
the dependent variable.
The regression equation adopted is as follows:.
HPA = a + b1ISF + b2DOC + b3INF + b4BAC + b5IPL + b6UPM + b7POF + b8ICC +
b9LID + b10COP + b11FAD + b12NAD + b13INC + b14IMD + b15LAA + b16DOL +
b17DIP + b18CIP + b19WRE 2
Where:
Y = Housing Project Abandonment (HPA)
ISF = Insufficient Funds (X1)
DOC = Death of the Client/Investor (X2)
INF = Inflation (X3)
BAC = Bankruptcy of Contractor (X4)
IPL = Improper/Defective Planning (X5)
UPM = Unskillfulness of the Project Manager (X6)
POF = Political Factor (X7)
ICC = Inadequate Cost Control (X8)
LID = Loss of Investment Drive (X9)
COP = Change of Priority (X10)
FAD = Faulty Design (X11)
NAD = Natural Disaster (X12)
INC = Inexperienced Consultants (X13)
IMD = Improper Documentation (X14)
LAA = Legal/Administrative Actions (X15)
DOL = Disputes on Land (X16)
DIP = Disruption in Payment (X17)
CIP = Change in Project Scope (X18)
WRE = Wrong Estimate (X19)
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b1, b2 ……..bn are multiple regression coefficients for the independent variables
“a” is an error term which points to the fact that a proportion of the variance in the dependent
variable Y is unexplained by the regression equation.
Similarly, a Relative Importance Index (RII) was used to identify and rank the variables. In the
calculation of the Relative Importance Index (RII), the formula suggested by Lim & Alum (1995)
was used.
3
where;
W = weighting given to each statement by the respondents and ranges from 1 to 5;
n5 = strongly agreed; n4 = agreed; n3 = uncertain; n2 = disagreed; n1 = strongly disagreed
A = Higher response integer (5); and
N = Total number of respondents.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
This section presented the results obtained from analysis of data collected from the field and
discussed same.
Table 1: Respondents Profile
Socioeconomic Characteristics Frequency Percentage
Sex Male 23 76.7
Female 7 23.3
Education O’Level 17 56.7
B.Sc/HND 8 26.7
M.Sc 4 13.3
PhD 1 3.3
Occupation Civil Servant 19 63.3
Self employed 9 30.0
Others 2 6.7
Family Size 3–5 8 26.7
6–8 16 53.3
9 – 11 6 20.0
11 – 13 0 0
Income
(monthly) Below 50,000 10 33.3
51,000-100,000 11 36.7
101,000-150,000 5 16.7
151,000-200,000 2 6.7
Above 200,000 1 3.3
Source: Field survey, 2016
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Table 1 presents the profile of respondents for this study, among which 76.7% were male, and
56.7% did not attain above secondary school education. Most of the respondents are civil
servants (63.3%). The highest percentage with respect to family size is within 5 to 8 (53.3%) and
income level of between 51,000 to 100, 000 thousand naira monthly was predominant (36.7%).
Table 2: Level of housing project abandonment in Osogbo
Level of housing abandonment Frequency Percentage
Very High 5 16.7
High 8 26.6
Low 15 50.0
Very low 2 6.7
Total 30 100
Source: Field survey, 2016
Table 2 presents the perception of the respondents with respect to the level of housing project
abandonment in the study area. 26.6% of the respondents opined that the issue of housing
project abandonment is high in the study area. This is evident by the number of abandoned
housing projects observed in the study area. However, 50% and 6.7% of the respondents opined
that housing project abandonment is low and very low respectively. From the foregoing it is
evident that the phenomenon of housing project abandonment is also seen in the study area.
This is congruent with findings from similar studies such as Olusegun & Micheal (2011) and Yin
& Silverman (2015).
Table 3: Factors influencing housing project abandonment in Osogbo
Factors influencing housing abandonment
1 2 3 4 5 RII Rank
Improper/Defective planning 0 7 0 5 18 0.842 10
Disputes on land 1 1 0 12 16 0.858 3
Inexperienced consultants 2 4 0 6 18 0.853 4
Insufficient funds 0 0 0 13 17 0.892 1
Death of the Client/Investor/Owner
0 2 0 13 15 0.858 5
Faulty design 1 10 0 7 12 0.750 17
Inflation 0 5 0 8 17 0.850 7
Improper documentation 4 4 0 6 16 0.783 14
Wrong estimate 1 3 0 10 16 0.842 9
Legal/Administrative actions 2 1 0 7 20 0.875 2
Change of priority 2 5 0 5 18 0.825 11
Unskillfulness of Project Manager 1 10 0 5 14 0.767 16
Political factor 2 4 0 9 15 0.808 13
Loss of investment drive 0 8 0 6 16 0.817 12
Bankruptcy of Contractor 2 8 0 5 15 0.775 15
Change of project scope 4 8 0 5 13 0.725 19
Inadequate cost control 0 5 0 9 16 0.842 8
Natural disaster 3 5 0 13 9 0.733 18
Disruption in payment 1 4 0 7 18 0.850 6
Source: Field survey, 2016
184
Table 3 shows that insufficient funds is the most critical factor influencing housing project
abandonment in the study area ranking number 1 (RII 0.892). This could be connected to the
economic recession being experienced in Nigeria, as prices of building materials have doubled
and in some cases tripled because of the inflation associated with the recession thereby eroding
the purchasing power of the Nigerian currency. Change of project scope ranked the least (RII
0.725) in the study area. This could be because property owners hardly change the scope of their
developmental projects putting into consideration the finance and other logistics involved in
such changes.
Table 4: Effects of housing project abandonment in Osogbo
Effects of housing project abandonment 1 2 3 4 5 RII Rank
Hideout for criminals 2 3 0 10 15 0.817 4
Wastage/underutilization of financial and 1 7 0 7 15 0.804 6
material resources
Decrease in real property’s value 1 4 0 8 17 0.842 2
Deprives the government of expected revenues 4 5 0 11 10 0.725 10
from property rates and taxes
Pollution of the environment 1 8 0 9 12 0.767 9
Defaces the environmental scenery 0 4 0 13 13 0.825 3
Loss of job 3 4 0 5 18 0.817 5
Reduces employment opportunities 1 4 0 7 18 0.854 1
Decrease in the tempo of economic activities 3 6 0 6 15 0.775 8
Inability to obtain loan facility 2 5 0 11 12 0.775 7
Source: Field survey, 2016
Table 4 presents the effects of housing project abandonment in the study area with reduction in
employment opportunity ranking the highest (RII 0.854). This is because the construction
industry brings together a large number of both skilled and unskilled labor ranging from Estate
Surveyors, Architects, Building Engineers, and laborers among others. When there is a
stoppage of building activities on sites it reduces employment opportunities to a wide range of
job seekers. Deprivation of government of expected revenues from property rates and taxes
ranked the least (RII 0.725). Other effects include pollution of the environment as such sites
were mostly turned to refuse dump sites by neighboring houses and reduction of property
value of adjoining properties among others. These finding is in agreement with similar studies
conducted in the US and Malaysia by Carrero (2009) and Hoe (2013) respectively.
185
Table 5: Model Summary
Adjusted R Std. Error of
Model R R Square Square the Estimate
1 .995 0.99 0.972 0.238
Source: Analysis of survey data, 2016
Table 6: ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)
Sum of Mean
Model Squares df Square F Sig.
Regression 58.232 19 3.065 53.956 .000
Residual 0.568 10 0.057
Total 58.8 29
Source: Analysis of survey data, 2016
Table 7: Coefficients
Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
(Constant) 0.145 0.407 0.356 0.729
Insufficient Funds 0.113 0.239 0.04 0.472 0.040
Death of the Client/Investor -0.132 0.159 -0.083 -0.83 0.008
Inflation -1.138 0.324 -0.783 -3.517 0.006
Bankruptcy of Contractor -0.129 0.178 -0.113 -0.725 0.485
Improper/Defective Planning 0.931 0.331 0.668 2.814 0.018
Unskillfulness of Project Manager 0.003 0.256 0.002 0.011 0.992
Political Factor -0.847 0.434 -0.744 -1.953 0.079
Inadequate Cost Control 0.01 0.289 0.007 0.034 0.973
Loss of Investment Drive 0.185 0.291 0.142 0.635 0.539
Change Of Priority -0.114 0.494 -0.11 -0.23 0.823
Faulty Design -0.023 0.058 -0.027 -0.4 0.698
Natural Disaster 0.399 0.22 0.431 1.811 0.100
Inexperienced Consultants 0.788 0.323 0.669 2.445 0.035
Improper Documentation -1.146 0.281 -1.14 -4.085 0.002
Legal/Administrative Actions 0.159 0.431 0.143 0.37 0.019
Disputes On Land -0.079 0.453 -0.021 -0.174 0.005
Disruption In Payment 0.893 0.322 0.785 2.774 0.020
Change In Project Scope 0.991 0.168 1.15 5.891 0.000
Wrong Estimate 0.077 0.365 0.061 0.211 0.837
Source: Analysis of survey data, 2016
Table 5 shows the regression model summary result, which indicates a high positive correlation
of 0.995 between all the variables. Table 6 tests the overall significance of the coefficients (β's).
The results indicated that the overall model is statistically significant, [F (19,10) = 53.956, P =
0.000]. Table 7 presents the coefficients, the Enter Method was employed in the analysis (this
186
will cause all predictors to be included in the output). Looking at the significance values of the
individual β's, it is revealed that of all the predictors, only the following critical factors
significantly predict housing abandonment in the study area: Insufficient funds, death of the
client/investor, inflation, improper/defective planning, inexperienced consultants, improper
documentation, legal/administrative actions, disputes on land, disruption in payment and
change in project scope in the study area, with t = 0.356, p = 0.040? 0.05; t = 0.472, p = 0.008? 0.01; t
= 3.517, p = 0.006? 0.01; t = 2.814, p = 0.018? 0.05; t = 2.445, p = 0.035? 0.05; t = 4.085, p = 0.002? 0.01;
t = 0.37, p = 0.019? 0.05; t = 0.175, p = 0.005? 0.01; t = 2.774, p = 0.020? 0.05; t = 5.891, p = 0.000? 0.01
respectively, hence they are statistically significant at both 0.05 and 0.01 level of significance.
CONCLUSION
This study examined the factors influencing housing project abandonment in Osogbo, Nigeria.
Findings from the study revealed that there are 19 critical factors that influence housing project
abandonment in the study area; with 'insufficient funds' as the most critical factor (RII 0.892)
and 'change of project scope' as the least critical factor (RII 0.725). The findings of this study is
congruent with what was found in literature as it showed agreement with similar studies such
as Hillier, et, al. (2003), Olusegun & Micheal (2011), Ewa (2013) and Yin, & Silverman (2015). To
curb housing project abandonment in the study area it was recommended among others that
before prospective real estate investors venture into desired housing projects, it is imperative
that sufficient funds be generated to cater for the proposed project. Similarly, clients should
avoid changing the scope of the project in the middle of the housing project work. This could go
a long way in drastically reducing the menace of housing project abandonment in the study
area.
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