Chapter 15-Probability

→ It is a chance of occurance of an event.

If ‘A’ is an event then the probability of occurance of A is given by
𝑛(𝐴)
P(A) = 𝑛(𝑆)

Where n(A) is number of favourable outcomes

n(S) is total number of possible outcomes
Initially probability was a branch of mathematics
Classification of probability
Probability is broadly classified into
a) Subjective probability:
Is is based on one’s experience and observation
b) Objective probability:
It is based on mathematical facts
Note:
→Probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 (both inclusive)
→If the probability of an event is equal to 0. Then it is said to be impossible or improbable
event.
→If the probability of an event is equal to 1. Then it is said to be a sure event.
→If the probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 then it is said to be a possible or probable
event.
→The sum of the probabilities of occurance of an event and non occurance of the same event
is equal to 1.
i.e. P(A) + P(A′) = 1
Where A’ is non occurance of an event A.
→An event which can produce only one outcome is said to be a simple event
Ex: Getting a number 2 on tossing a die once, where the outcome is only 2
→An event which can produce more than one outcomes is said to be a composite or
compound event. Ex: getting number multiple of 2 on tossing of a coin , where the outcomes
are 2,4,6

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Sample Space (S):
It is a set of all possible outcomes
Sample space for tossing of a coin
→ When a coin is tossed once
S = { H, T}
n(S) =2
→ When a coin is tossed twice
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
n(S) =4
→ When a coin is tossed thrice
S ={ HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT}
n(S) = 8
Note: n(S) = 2n for tossing of a coin
n is no. of tosses
Note:
The probability of getting head and tail alternatively on tossing a coin ‘n’ times is
𝟐
= 𝟐𝒏

Example:
Find the probalility of getting head and tail alternatively on tossing a coin 6 times

Sample space for tossing/rolling of a die (dice)

a) When tossed once
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
n(S) =6
b) When tossed twice
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3) , (1,4) , (1,5) , ( 1,6)
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 (2,1) , ………………………..(2,6)
(3,1) , ………………………..(3,6)
(4,1) , ……………………….(4,6)
(5,1), ………………………...(5,6)
(6,1), ………………………..(6,6) }
n(S) = 36
When a die is rolled twice ( 2 dice rolled simultaneously

Sum of Favourable outcomes Probability

points

2 1 1/36

3 2 2/36 = 1/18

4 3 3/36 =1/12

5 4 4/36 = 1/9

6 5 5/36

7 6 6/36 = 1/6

8 5 5/36

9 4 4/36

10 3 3/36

11 2 2/36

12 1 1/36

Note: n(s) =𝟔𝒏 for tossing a die

Where n is number of tosses

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Sample space for deck of cards
Total number of cards = 52
a)Red (26)
i)Hearts (13)
ii)Diamonds (13)
a)Black (26)
i)Spades (13)
ii)Clubs(13)
Each suit of 13 cards consists of :
Number cards = 9 ( 2-10)
King =1
Queen =1
Jack =1
Ace =1
No of face cards:
King, queen and jack are face cards.
Therefore the number of face cards = 4+4+4 = 12
Simple Problems on Tossing of a coin, Tossing of dice and Deck of cards
Example1:
A Coin is tossed twice what is the probability that atmost 1 head occurs.

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Example2:
A coin is tossed thrice. What is the probability that exactly 2 heads occur

Example3:
A Coin is tossed thrice what is the probability that at least 1 head occuss.

Example4:
Two dice are tossed simultaneously, Find the probability of getting a doublet.

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Example5:
Two dice are tossed simultaneously. What is the probability that the sum of two
point is equal to 7.

Example6:
A card is drawn at random from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that
the card is a face card of spades.

Example7:
A card is drawn at random from a deck of 52 cards what is the probability that the card is a
numbered card of red .

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For any 2 events A & B
1.The probability that either A or B occurs (probability that at least 1 event occurs)
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A⋂B) → eqn1
where, P(AUB) →probability of A or B
P(A∩B) → probability of A and B
Note :-
Equation  is also called as addition theorem of probability.
2. If A & B are mutually Exclusive
Two events A&B are said to be mutually exclusive when there is nothing Common between the two
events.
P(A∩B) = 0
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) → eqn2
3. A & B are said to be exhaustive when n(AUB) = n(s).
n(AUB)
P (AUB) = 𝑛(𝑠)

P(AUB) = 1 → eqn3
If A&B are mutually exclusive & exhaustive
P(AUB) = 1 for exhaustive events
P(A∩B) = 0 for mutually exclusive event
Now P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A⋂B)
1= P(A)+P(B) -0
i.e P(A)+P(B) = 1

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5.Conditional Probability
If A&B are 2 events, with B has already occurred then the probability of occurrence of A is P(A/B) =
P(A∩B) n(A∩B)
=
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑛(𝐵)

→Probability of Occurance B, given that event A has already occurred.

P(A∩B) n(A∩B)
P(B/A) = =
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑛(𝐴)

Example:
There are 50 men & 30 women in a locality. Out of them 35 men & 15 women are service holders. If
one person is selected at random, then what is the Probability that the selected person is a service
holder given that the person selected is a woman.

5. Independent events
→ Two Events are said to be independent if occurrence or Non-occurrence of one event
doesn't affect occurrence or non-occurrence of other event
i.e
• P(A/B) = P(A)
• P(B/A) = P(B)
• P(A/B’) = P(A)
• P(B/A’) = P(B)

→ If the 2 events A & B are independent then P (A∩B) = P(A)X P(B) (Multiplication theorem of
probability
→If the 2 events are mutually exclusive then they can't be independent & vice-versa.
7.Probability of occurrence of only A (out of A & B)
P(A-B) = P (A∩BI) = P(A) -P(A∩B)
8.Probability of occurrence of only B
P(B-A)=P(B∩Al) = P(B) -P(A∩B)
9.Probability of occurrence of only 1 event
only one Event means only A or only B
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→P(A)-P(A∩B] + P(B) -P (A∩B)
→ P(A) + P(B) - 2P(A∩B)
10.If the events A&B are equally likely
→Equally likely events will have equal probabilities
P(A) = P(B)=K
Where K is a constant
For any 3 events A,B, & C
1. probability that at least one event occurs is
P (AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(c) -P (A∩B)-P(B∩C)- P(A∩C) + P(A∩B∩C) →
2. If A, B, C are mutually exclusive then
P(A∩B) = 0
P(B∩C) =0
P(A∩C) = 0
P(A∩B∩C) = 0
Now  => P(AUBUC) = P (A) + P(B) +P(C)→ 2
3. If A, B, C are Exhaustive then n(AUBUC) = n(S)
P(AUBUC) = 1 → 3
4. If A.B, C are mutually exclusive & exhaustive then
P(A) +P (B) +P(C) = 1 [:. By combining ② & ③]
5. If A, B, C are equally likely then
P(A)= P(B) = P(C) = K
Where K is a constant.
De Morgan’s Theorem
1) P(Al∩Bl) = P(AUB)′
2) P(A'UB') = P (A∩B)′
Note :-
P(AUB) ′ = 1- P (AUB)
This formula is to be used when the Probability of occurrence of neither A nor B is asked.
Sample Space for leap year and non leap year problems
a) Non Leap year:
Total number of days in non leap year = 365

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No. of odd days =1
The sample space for this odd day is S = {Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,
Saturday}
n(S) = 7
Note: P(A∩B)=0 for non leap year problems
b) Leap year
Total number of days in a leap year = 366
No. of odd days =2
Sample space for these two odd days is
S ={Sun-Mon, Mon-Tue, Tue-Wed, Wed-Thur, Thur-Fri, Fri-Sat, Sat-Sun }
n(S) = 7
Note:P(A∩B) = 0 if the 2 days given are non successive days
P(A∩B) =1/7 if the 2 days given are successive days.
Problems on 2 events & 3 events
Example1:
2 dice are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting the sum neither 8 nor 9.

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Example2:
A card is drawn at random from a well shuffled deck 52 cards. what is the probability that the Card is
either a face card or red

Example3:
The probabilities of a Person getting qualified for 2 different entrance exams are 1/3 & 3/4 .
Find the probability that he would get qualified in one of the 2 exams.

Example4:
1 1 3
There are 3 events A,B,C having probabilities 2 , 3 & 4 . If the Probabilities of Occurrence of A&B, B&C,
1 1 1 1
A&C and A & B & C are , , and 15 respectively. Then find the probability of occurrence of at least
3 5 6
one event.

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Example5:
What is the probability of getting 53 sundays or 53 wednesdays in a non leap year

Example6:
What is the probability of getting 53 Fridays or 53 Saturdays in a leap year

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Random variable & probability Distribution
Random variable (x)
It is a function defined on a sample Space associated with a random experiment assuming any real
number. It is denoted by x.
Probability Distribution :-
It is the distribution of a random variable with corresponding Probability
Note: ∑ 𝑷(𝒙) = 𝟏
Mathematical Expectation of x
→ It is also called as expected value or mean
→ It is denoted by E(x)
→ E(x) = ∑ 𝑥. 𝑃(𝑥)
→ E(x²) = ∑ x². P(x)
Variance of X :
V(x) = E(x²) – [E(x)] ²
Example1:
write down the probability distribution for getting head on tossing a coin twice.

Example2:
Find the expected value & variance of getting heads on tossing Coin thrice

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Example3:
Find the mathematical expectation of number on the upper face of the dice, when rolled once

Properties of E(x)
(i) E(K) = K
Where 'k' is a constant.
(ii) E (x+y) = E(x) + E(y)
(iii) E(XY) = E(x) x E(y)

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(iv) E(a+bx) = a + b E(x)
Ex:-
E(3 + 2x) = 3+ 2 E(x)

Baye's theorem
If E₁, E₂, E3 ……….. En are the events which are mutually Exclusive
and 'A' is an event which has already occurred
Then probability of occurance of Ei given that ‘A’ has already Occurred is.
P(A/𝐸 ), P(𝐸 )
P(Ei/A) = ∑ P(A/𝐸𝑖 ),P(𝐸𝑖 )
𝑖 𝑖

where i can be 1, 2, 3, 4……….n

∑ P(A/Ei) .P(Ei)= P(A/E1) P(E1) + P(A/E2). P(E₂) +...

Example:
There are 3 bags.
Bag 1 consists of 3 red & 4 white balls
Bag 2 consists of 4 red & 5 white balls
Bag 3 consists of 5 red & 2 white balls
If one ball is drawn at random. then what is the probability that the ball is selected from bag2 given
the selected ball is red

odds in favour and against the occurrence of an event :-

•
If the odds in favour of an event is given as a:b.

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Then ‘a’ is the no. of favourable outcomes, where as ‘b’ is against it. & a+b = n(S)
•
If the odds against of an event is given as a:b.
Then b is the number of favourable outcomes and a is number of against outcomes.
& a+b = n(S)
Example:-
If the odds in favour of an event 2:3 then find the
Probability of
(i) occurrence of an event
(ii) Non-occurrence an event

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 Problems involving Combination
Example1:A bag consists of 5 red ball, 3 blue balls & 2 green balls.
If 4 balls are drawn at random, them what is the probability that all of them being red balls.

Example2:
A bag Consists of 9 balls of which 5 are blue. If 3 balls are selected at random. Then what is the
probability that out of 3 balls 2 are blue.

Practice questions:
1) A dice is thrown once. What is the mathematical expectation of the number on the dice?
(a)16/6 (b)13/2 (c)3.5 (d)4.5
2) If P (A/B)= P (A), then A and B are
(a)Mutually exclusive events (b)Dependent events
(c)Independent events (d)Composite events
3) A bag contains 3 white and 5 black balls and second bag contains 4 white and 2 black balls. If one ball
is taken from each bag, the probability that both the balls are white is ________

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 (a) 1/3 (b)1/4 (c)1/2 (d)None of the above
4) The odds in favour of A solving a problem is 5:7 and odds against B solving the same problem is 9:6.
What is the probability that if both of them try, the problem will be solved?
(a) 117/180 (b)181/200 (c)147/180 (d)119/180
5) Consider
Urn I : 2 white balls, 3 black balls
Urn II: 4 white balls, 6 black balls
One ball is randomly transferred from first to second urn, then one ball is drawn from II urn. The
probability that drawn ball is white is
(a)22/65 (b)22/46 (c)22/55 (d)21/45
6) If P(AUB) = P(A), Find P (A∩B).
(a) P(A).P(B) (b) P(A)+P(B) (c) 0 (d) P(B)
7) The probability of Girl getting scholarship is 0.6 and the same probability for Boy is 0.8. Find the
probability that at least one of the categories getting scholarship.
(a)0.32 (b)0.44 (c) 0.92 (d) None of the above
8) Exactly 3 girls are to be selected from 5 girls and 3 boys. The probability of selecting 3 girls will be:
5 1 15
(a) 28(b) 56 (c)28 (d) None
9) Two unbiased dice are thrown. The expected value of the sum of numbers of the upper side is:
(a)3.5 (b)7 (c)12 (d)6
10) One card is drawn from pack of 52, what is the probability that it is a king or a queen?
(a) 11/13 (b)2/13 (c)1/13 (d)None of the abov
11) In a packet of 500 pens, 50 are found to be defective. A pen is selected at random. Find the probability
that it is non-defective.
(a) 8/9 (b)7/8 (c)9/10 (d)2/3
12) Four married couples are gathered in a room. Two persons are selected at random amongst them. Find
the probability that selected persons are a gentleman and a lady but not a couple.
(a) 1/7 (b)3/7 (c)1/8 (d)3/8
13) A team of 5 is to be selected from 8 boys and 3 girls. Find the probability that it includes two particular
girls.
(a) 2/30 (b)1/5 (c)2/11 (d)8/9
14) Let A and B two events in a sample space S such that P(A) = 1/2, P(B ̅) = 5/8, P(AUB) = 3/4; Find P(A ̅∩
̅)
B
(a) 3/4 (b)1/4 (c)3/16 (d)None of the above
15) A card is drawn out of a standard pack of 52 cards. What is the probability of drawing a king or red
colour?
(a) 1/4 (b)4/13 (c)7/13 (d)1/2
16) A player tosses two fair coins, he wins Rs.5 if 2 heads appear, Rs.2 if one head appears and Rs.1 if no
head occurs. Find his expected amount of winning.
(a)2.5 (b)3.5 (c)4.5 (d)5.5

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17) Arun and Tarun appear for an interview for two vacancies. The probability of Arun’s selection is 1/3 and
that of Tarun’s selection is 1/5. Find the probability that only one of them will be selected.
(a)2/5 (b)4/5 (c)6/5 (d)8/5
18) Two dice are thrown together. Find the probability of getting a multiple of 2 on one dice and multiple of
3 on the other.
(a) 2/3 (b)1/6 (c)1/3 (d)None of the above
19) The odds against A solving a certain problem are 4 to 3 and the odds in favour of B solving the same
problem are 7 to 5. What is the probability that the problem will be solved if they both try?
(a) 15/21 (b)16/21 (c)17/21 (d)13/21
20) Find the expected value of the following probability distribution
x : -20 -10 30 75 80
p(x) : 3/20 1/5 1/2 1/10 1/20
(a) 20.5 (b) 21.5 (c) 22.5 (d) 24.5
21) A bag contains 6 red balls and some blue balls. If the probability of drawing a blue ball from the bag is
twice that of red ball, Find the number of blue balls in the bag.
(a) 10 (b) 12 (c) 14 (d) 16

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