Class Numerical
Class Numerical
Month Actual Sale 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month Error Absolute Error MAD Error Square MAPE
24-Jan 10
24-Feb 12
24-Mar 13
24-Apr 16 11.67 4.33 4.33 4.33 18.78 0.27
24-May 19 13.67 12.75 5.33 5.33 5.33 28.44 0.28
24-Jun 23 16.00 15.00 14.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 49.00 0.30
24-Jul 26 19.33 17.75 16.60 15.50 6.67 6.67 6.67 44.44 0.26
24-Aug 30 22.67 21.00 19.40 18.17 7.33 7.33 7.33 53.78 0.24
24-Sep 28 26.33 24.50 22.80 21.17 1.67 1.67 1.67 2.78 0.06
24-Oct 18 28.00 26.75 25.20 23.67 (10.00) 10.00 10.00 100.00 0.56
24-Nov 16 25.33 25.50 25.00 24.00 (9.33) 9.33 9.33 87.11 0.58
24-Dec 14 20.67 23.00 23.60 23.50 (6.67) 6.67 6.67 44.44 0.48
24-Jan 16.00 19.00 21.20 22.00 MAD 6.48
MSE 47.64
MAPE 33.68
4 Month Moving Avg 5 Month Moving Avg 6 Month Moving Avg
Absolute Error Error Square FOR MAPE Absolute Error Error Square FOR MAPE Absolute Error Error Square FOR MAPE
0.24
0.25 5.30 28.09 0.28
0.26 6.80 46.24 0.30 7.53 56.75 0.33
0.21 6.60 43.56 0.25 7.53 56.75 0.29 8.38 70.24 0.32
0.21 7.30 53.29 0.24 8.40 70.56 0.28 9.38 88.00 0.31
0.02 1.70 2.89 0.06 2.87 8.22 0.10 4.00 16.00 0.14
0.57 9.70 94.09 0.54 8.87 78.62 0.49 7.95 63.24 0.44
0.46 8.20 67.24 0.51 8.47 71.68 0.53 8.33 69.44 0.52
0.33 6.40 40.96 0.46 7.47 55.75 0.53 8.05 64.76 0.57
6.50 7.30 7.68
47.05 56.90 61.95
28.30 33.01 36.50 38.59
Moving Avg Weighted Moving Average Error
Month Actual Sale 3 months 5 months 3 months 5 months 3 months 5 months 3 months WA
24-Jan 10
24-Feb 12
24-Mar 13
24-Apr 16 11.67 12.17 4.33 3.83
24-May 19 13.67 14.33 5.33 4.67
24-Jun 23 16.00 14.00 17.00 15.47 7.00 9.00 6.00
24-Jul 26 19.33 16.60 20.50 18.47 6.67 9.40 5.50
24-Aug 30 22.67 19.40 23.83 21.60 7.33 10.60 6.17
24-Sep 28 26.33 22.80 27.50 25.13 1.67 5.20 0.50
24-Oct 18 28.00 25.20 28.33 26.87 10.00 7.20 10.33
24-Nov 16 25.33 25.00 23.33 24.47 9.33 9.00 7.33
24-Dec 14 20.67 23.60 18.67 21.47 6.67 9.60 4.67
24-Jan ? 16.00 21.20 15.33 18.27 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
rror 3 months Moving Avg 5 months Moving Ave 3 months WA 5 months WA
5 months WA MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE
0.33
0.29
0.28
0.10
0.49
0.53
0.53
#VALUE!
36.50
Mont Actual Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha =
h Sale 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
24-Jan 10 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
24-Feb 12 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
### 13 10.20 10.40 10.60 10.80 11.00 11.20 11.40 11.60 11.80
24-Apr 16 10.48 10.76 11.04 11.32 11.60 11.88 12.16 12.44 12.72
### 19 11.03 11.58 12.14 12.69 13.24 13.79 14.34 14.90 15.45
24-Jun 23 11.83 12.63 13.42 14.22 15.02 15.81 16.61 17.41 18.20
24-Jul 26 12.95 14.06 15.18 16.30 17.41 18.53 19.65 20.77 21.88
### 30 14.25 15.56 16.86 18.17 19.47 20.78 22.08 23.39 24.69
### 28 15.83 17.40 18.98 20.55 22.13 23.70 25.28 26.85 28.43
24-Oct 18 17.04 18.26 19.48 20.70 21.91 23.13 24.35 25.57 26.78
### 16 17.14 17.23 17.33 17.43 17.52 17.62 17.71 17.81 17.90
### 14 17.03 16.91 16.80 16.68 16.57 16.46 16.34 16.23 16.11
24-Jan ? 16.72 16.42 16.12 15.82 15.51 15.21 14.91 14.61 14.30
Mont Actual Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha = Alpha =
h Sale 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
24-Jan 10 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75
24-Feb 12 17.88 17.00 16.13 15.25 14.38 13.50 12.63 11.75 10.88
### 13 17.29 16.70 16.11 15.53 14.94 14.35 13.76 13.18 12.59
24-Apr 16 16.86 16.43 16.00 15.57 15.14 14.72 14.29 13.86 13.43
### 19 16.77 16.69 16.60 16.52 16.43 16.34 16.26 16.17 16.09
24-Jun 23 17.00 17.22 17.44 17.66 17.89 18.11 18.33 18.55 18.78
24-Jul 26 17.60 18.20 18.80 19.40 20.00 20.60 21.20 21.80 22.40
### 30 18.44 19.28 20.12 20.96 21.80 22.64 23.48 24.32 25.16
### 28 19.59 20.75 21.91 23.06 24.22 25.37 26.53 27.69 28.84
24-Oct 18 20.43 21.27 22.11 22.96 23.80 24.64 25.48 26.32 27.16
### 16 20.19 19.95 19.70 19.46 19.22 18.97 18.73 18.49 18.24
### 14 19.77 19.35 18.93 18.51 18.10 17.68 17.26 16.84 16.42
24-Jan ? 19.19 18.62 18.04 17.46 16.89 16.31 15.73 15.15 14.58
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.00 4.00 0.17 2.00 4.00 0.17 2.00 4.00 0.17 2.00 4.00 0.17 2.00 4.00
2.80 7.84 0.22 2.60 6.76 0.20 2.40 5.76 0.18 2.20 4.84 0.17 2.00 4.00
5.52 30.47 0.35 5.24 27.46 0.33 4.96 24.60 0.31 4.68 21.90 0.29 4.40 19.36
7.97 63.49 0.42 7.42 55.00 0.39 6.86 47.11 0.36 6.31 39.84 0.33 5.76 33.18
11.17 124.80 0.49 10.37 107.63 0.45 9.58 91.73 0.42 8.78 77.10 0.38 7.98 63.74
13.05 170.41 0.50 11.94 142.49 0.46 10.82 117.07 0.42 9.70 94.14 0.37 8.59 73.71
15.75 248.02 0.52 14.44 208.61 0.48 13.14 172.60 0.44 11.83 140.01 0.39 10.53 110.82
12.17 148.20 0.43 10.60 112.34 0.38 9.02 81.43 0.32 7.45 55.49 0.27 5.87 34.51
0.96 0.91 0.05 0.26 0.07 0.01 1.48 2.19 0.08 2.70 7.27 0.15 3.91 15.31
1.14 1.30 0.07 1.23 1.52 0.08 1.33 1.77 0.08 1.43 2.03 0.09 1.52 2.32
3.03 9.15 0.22 2.91 8.48 0.21 2.80 7.83 0.20 2.68 7.20 0.19 2.57 6.60
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
6.30 67.38 28.62 5.75 56.20 26.29 5.37 46.34 24.84 4.98 37.82 23.39 4.59 30.63
0.6 0.8
Actu
Mont Alph Bet
MAPE al FIT MAD MSE MAPE
h a a
Sale
0.98 24-Jan 10 ### 1.00 ### 9.75 95.06 0.98
0.21 24-Feb 12 ### ### ### 1.78 3.17 0.15
0.11 ### 13 ### ### 8.46 4.54 20.59 0.35
0.34 24-Apr 16 ### ### ### 5.46 29.84 0.34
0.35 ### 19 ### 1.97 ### 3.21 10.31 0.17
0.29 24-Jun 23 ### 3.52 ### 1.77 3.13 0.08
0.16 24-Jul 26 ### 4.36 ### 0.66 0.43 0.03
0.09 ### 30 ### 4.05 ### 0.31 0.10 0.01
0.18 ### 28 ### 3.90 ### 6.02 36.29 0.22
0.90 24-Oct 18 ### 1.01 ### 13.42 180.03 0.75
0.70 ### 16 ### ### ### 1.93 3.74 0.12
0.39 ### 14 ### ### ### 3.59 12.87 0.26
### 24-Jan ? ### ### 7.93 ### ### ###
39.00 4.37 32.96 28.61