INDIAN INSTITUTE OF LEGAL STUDIES

DAGAPUR, SILIGURI

WEST BENGAL

BUSINESS STATISTICS

PROJECT ON :-

“Make an in-depth study on the concept of equally likely

events in Probability”

SUPERVISED BY:- SIDDHANT RAI

SUBMITTED BY:-SAJJAD HOSSAIN

REGISTRATION NO:-

ROLL NO:- 23

COURSE:-B.COM LLB (HONS)

SEM:- I
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all those who supported me

throughout my time in college. I am especially thankful to my professors,
particularly MR SIDDHANT RAI whose guidance, encouragement, and
expertise have been instrumental in my academic growth. Their dedication
to teaching and support have greatly enriched my college experience,
inspiring me to reach higher and broaden my understanding.

I would also like to thank to MR SABIR ALI SIR (Librarian at Indian Institute
of Legal Studies) who have also been there to provide the resources required
for the completion of this assignment.

I am also incredibly grateful for the support of my family and friends. Their
encouragement and belief in my abilities provided me with strength and
motivation through challenging times. Special thanks to my Friend or Family
Member’s for always being there, offering wisdom and laughter along the
way. Without each of you, this journey would not have been as rewarding.
Thank you for making this chapter unforgettable.
Signature of Student

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CONTENCE

CHAPTER Topic Page no.

CHAPTER:-1 INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER:-2 CASE STUDY

CHAPTER:-3 CONCLUTION

BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Introduction

Probability is the mathematical study of uncertainty, predicting the

likelihood of outcomes in various situations. A core concept within
probability theory is that of "equally likely events," which forms a
foundation for understanding how probabilities are assigned in certain
scenarios. Equally likely events refer to situations where each possible
outcome of an event has the same probability of occurring. This
concept is essential for analyzing fair games, simple random
experiments, and statistical experiments, where assumptions of
fairness or randomness lead to equal chances for all outcomes.

For instance, when tossing a fair coin, there are two equally likely
outcomes: heads or tails. Similarly, in rolling a fair six-sided die, each
of the six faces has an equal probability of appearing. Recognizing
when events are equally likely helps in setting up accurate probability
models and calculating probabilities in a straightforward manner. It
also aids in understanding more complex probabilistic ideas like
combinations, permutations, and dependent or independent events.

In this study, we will explore the concept of equally likely events in

depth, covering its formal definition, examples, applications, and the
mathematical frameworks used to analyze such events. Additionally,
we will discuss the conditions required for events to be equally likely,
examine the use of equally likely events in theoretical probability
calculations, and consider practical applications in real-world scenarios.

1.1 Significance of the Problem:

Understanding equally likely events is essential in probability theory as it

forms the basis for accurately calculating the likelihood of various outcomes
in random experiments. Equally likely events are scenarios where each
possible outcome has the same probability of occurring, such as flipping a
fair coin or rolling a fair die. Grasping this concept is foundational for
students and researchers in fields such as mathematics, statistics,
engineering, and the social sciences, where probabilistic analysis plays a
crucial role.

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An in-depth study of equally likely events not only aids in simplifying

probability calculations but also enhances our ability to model real-world
situations with fairness and predictability, allowing for informed decision-
making across diverse applications.

1.2 Object of the Study :

The main objective of this study is to gain a deep understanding of the

concept of equally likely events in probability theory. Equally likely
events are a foundational concept in probability, underpinning much of
how probability is calculated and understood. Through this study, the
following goals will be pursued:

 Define Equally Likely Events: Establish a clear definition of

equally likely event and distinguish them from other types of
events in probability theory. Understanding what makes events
"equally likely" is essential for calculating probabilities
accurately.

 Explore Mathematical Principles: Investigate the mathematical

principles that apply to equally likely events. This includes the
formula for calculating probabilities for equally likely events,
where each event has the same chance of occurring.

By the end of this study, the aim is to establish a comprehensive

understanding of equally likely events, enabling an accurate application in
theoretical and practical probability problems. This knowledge can serve as a
foundation for further

exploration in probability and statistics, and support informed decision-

making in areas reliant on probabilistic outcomes.
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1.3 METHODOLOGY :

To conduct an in-depth study on the concept of equally likely

events in probability,

here is a concise methodology framework:

1. Literature Review

Objective: Explore foundational texts, research papers, and reputable

resources to define equally likely events, their historical development, and
applications.

Approach: Review books on probability theory, academic journals, and online

databases for scholarly articles.

2. Theoretical Analysis

Objective: Analyze the mathematical principles behind equally likely events.

Approach: Derive the probability formulas for equally likely events using
probability axioms, with examples to illustrate.

3. Practical Examples and Case Studies

Objective: Apply concepts to real-world scenarios and examine examples

where equally likely events are assumed.

Approach: Use simple cases (like dice rolls and coin tosses) and more
complex applications (e.g., in games, decision-making, and risk assessment).

4. Comparative Analysis

Objective: Differentiate equally likely events from non-equally likely events.

Approach: Compare cases with different probabilities, examining how

likelihood affects outcomes and interpretations.
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5. Conclusion and Implications

Objective: Summarize findings and consider the importance of equally likely

events in probability theory and other fields.

Approach: Draw insights from theoretical and practical analyses, highlighting

applications and potential limitations in assuming events are equally likely.

This methodology will provide a structured approach to understand, analyze,

and interpret the concept of equally likely events in probability.

1.4 REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE :

A review of the literature on the concept of equally likely events in

probability reveals its fundamental role in classical probability theory. Equally
likely events refer to outcomes of an experiment that have the same
probability of occurring. This concept is foundational in probability theory and
has been studied extensively, both in historical and theoretical contexts.

Historically, the principle of equally likely events dates back to the work of
early probability theorists, such as Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat in the
17th century. Their studies in gambling laid the groundwork for defining
probability by assigning equal chances to simple outcomes, an idea later
formalized by mathematicians like Jakob Bernoulli and Pierre-Simon Laplace.
Laplace, in particular, contributed to this concept by formulating the classical
definition of probability, which states that the probability of an event is the
ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of equally
likely outcomes. This perspective has been foundational for probability as it
applies to discrete, finite sample spaces, like tossing a fair coin or rolling a
fair die.

The assumption of equally likely events is a cornerstone in classical

probability because it simplifies the calculation of probabilities. However,
later literature notes that this assumption is often idealized, as real-world
events are seldom perfectly balanced. As probability theory evolved,
limitations of the equally likely assumption led to the development of
alternative probability models that account for events with unequal
probabilities, introducing concepts such as weighted probabilities, conditional
probabilities, and Bayesian inference.

Modern studies continue to investigate equally likely events in the context of

discrete probability, emphasizing its importance in fields ranging from
statistical inference to information theory. Researchers also examine cases
where equally likely events do not

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hold, using empirical and Bayesian methods to address scenarios with

unequal likelihoods, complex dependencies, or continuous sample spaces.

In summary, the concept of equally likely events has been essential in

building the foundations of probability theory. Despite its limitations, this
concept remains a critical component in understanding basic probability and
serves as a stepping stone to more complex models and real-world

1.5 RESEARCH QUESTION/HYPOTHESIS:-

Research Question:

How does the concept of equally likely events influence probability

calculations in theoretical and real-world scenarios?

Hypothesis:

If events are equally likely

, then each event in a sample space has an identical probability of occurring,

which simplifies the calculation of probabilities by allowing direct
proportionality based on the total number of events. This hypothesis will be
tested by examining cases where equally likely events apply and comparing
results to scenarios with unequally likely events.

1.6 Scope and Limitations of the Study:

This study focuses primarily on the theoretical aspects of equally likely

events and their implications in basic probability. It does not extensively
cover advanced probabilistic models or statistical distributions where events
may not be equally likely. Additionally, practical applications in complex real-
world scenarios are acknowledged but not analyzed in detail. The study's
conclusions may not fully apply to situations with non-uniform distributions
or when external factors influence the probability of events.

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CHAPTER:-2
CASE STUDY

CASE:

FACT:-

In probability theory, the concept of equally likely events is a foundational

idea that helps simplify and structure our understanding of outcomes and
chances in various scenarios. Here’s an in-depth look:

1. Definition of Equally Likely Events

Equally likely events refer to outcomes of a random experiment that have

the same probability of occurring. In a well-defined sample space, if each
event has an equal chance of happening, then they are considered equally
likely. For example, when rolling a fair six-sided die, each of the numbers (1
through 6) is an equally likely outcome since each number has an identical
probability (1/6) of being rolled.

2. Mathematical Representation

If a sample space contains outcomes, and each outcome is equally likely,

then the probability of any single event occurring is given by:
P(E) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes for } E}{\text{Total
number of outcomes in } S}

For equally likely outcomes, this becomes:

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P(E) = \frac{|E|}{|S|}

where represents the number of outcomes in event , and represents the

total number of outcomes in the sample space.

3. Examples of Equally Likely Events

Rolling a fair die: Each number from 1 to 6 has an equal probability (1/6) of
occurring.

Flipping a fair coin: The outcomes “heads” and “tails” are equally likely, each
with a probability of 1/2.

Drawing a card from a well-shuffled deck: Each of the 52 cards has an equal
probability (1/52) of being drawn.

4. Importance in Calculations and Assumptions

In many probability problems, the assumption of equally likely events

simplifies calculations. It allows for the straightforward use of ratios to
determine the probability of events. This assumption is critical in classical
probability, where the focus is often on ideal scenarios like fair dice, unbiased
coins, or random draws from a deck of cards.
5. Role in Different Probability Approaches

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Classical Probability: This approach heavily relies on the concept of equally

likely outcomes, especially in cases where each outcome is equally possible,
such as in games of chance.

Frequentist Probability: While it doesn’t assume equally likely outcomes, the

frequentist interpretation can apply this concept in cases where empirical
data suggests equal likelihood across outcomes.

Subjective Probability: In this approach, personal belief about the likelihood

of events plays a role, and equally likely events might not necessarily apply
as subjectivity can skew the perception of likelihood.

6. Challenges and Limitations

Real-World Scenarios: Not all events in real-life situations are equally likely.
For example, a biased coin may have a higher chance of landing on one side,
or a die may be weighted. Thus, the assumption of equally likely events
might not always be practical.

Complex Events: When outcomes have different probabilities or when

dependencies exist between outcomes, the concept of equally likely events
doesn’t apply, and more complex probabilistic models are needed.
7. Applications of Equally Likely Events

Basic Probability Calculations: In simple problems like calculating the

probability of getting a certain card, equally likely events allow for direct
calculations.

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Games and Gambling: Many games are designed with equally likely
outcomes to ensure fairness.

Statistics and Simulations: In modeling and simulations, assumptions about

equally likely events can provide baseline models, particularly in scenarios
where data is limited.

8. Conclusion

Equally likely events serve as a crucial simplifying assumption in probability,

enabling straightforward calculations and theoretical models. This concept is
central in classical probability theory, especially when dealing with idealized
situations. However, it’s essential to recognize its limitations and to consider
real-world conditions, where outcomes might not be equally probable.
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CHAPTER:-3

Conclusion:

The concept of equally likely events is foundational in probability theory,

allowing us to fairly assign probabilities when each outcome of an event has
the same chance of occurring. This idea simplifies probability calculations,
especially in cases where outcomes are symmetric, such as in tossing a fair
coin or rolling a balanced die. Through an in-depth study, we find that
equally likely events align well with the classical definition of probability,
where the probability of an event is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the
total possible outcomes.

However, real-world events rarely guarantee equal likelihood due to external

factors, such as biases in physical systems or subjective probability
assessments. Thus, while equally likely events offer a simplified and powerful
framework for understanding probability, it is essential to evaluate
assumptions in practical applications carefully.

In summary, equally likely events provide a theoretical basis that can guide
us in making fair and objective probability calculations. Understanding this
concept helps in both theoretical studies and practical applications, although
adjustments are often necessary when dealing with real-world complexity.
This concept remains vital to a wide range of fields, including statistics,
economics, and decision-making, where predicting outcomes accurately is
key to sound conclusions.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY

WEBSITES

❖ https://www.ebcreader.com

❖ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India

❖ https://lawcommissionofindia.nic.in

❖ https://www.iilsindia.com

❖ https://www.lawctopus.com

❖ https://www.makeuseof.com

❖ https://www.lawteacher.net/case

BOOKS

Dr. S. M. Shukla vs Dr. S. P. Sahai