Issue: 28042025

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Bullis h Momentum Starting to
Form Bitcoin continues to showcase impressive resilience, climbing over 10
percent in the past week and outperforming traditional risk assets like the
S&P 500. After enduring several weeks of choppy price action and low
liquidity, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $94,000 range lows - a pivotal marker
as this was the level that underpinned the rally that sent BTC to its
all-time high in January. The recovery has been supported by a shift in
macro sentiment, with renewed optimism around potential tariff relief
from the US administration sparking a broader risk-on move across
global markets.

Bitcoin has now also reclaimed the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis level at
around $92,900, a critical on-chain pivot level that typically separates
corrective phases from renewed bullish momentum. Adding to the
positive market structure, the Percent Supply in Profit metric has also
rebounded to 87.3 percent, indicating improving market health and
investor profitability.

The next few weeks will be crucial. We are not yet at full euphoria levels,
and Bitcoinʼs ability to maintain these gains in the coming weeks will be
key to determining whether a new leg higher toward all-time highs is
achievable, or if another pullback is in store.

Recent US trade policies, especially the imposition of high tariffs on

imports from China and other countries, are beginning to strain the
economy. Although initial jobless claims remain low and unemployment
stands at 4.2 percent, there are signs of weakening confidence in the
labour market.
Wage satisfaction and minimum acceptable salary expectations
(reservation wages) have fallen sharply, indicating growing concerns
about long-term job security and wage growth.

Meanwhile, durable goods orders rose significantly in March, driven

largely by a surge in commercial aircraft demand. However, core capital
goods orders — a better indicator of business investment — showed
almost no growth, reflecting cautious corporate sentiment amid tariff
uncertainty. Companies are delaying major investments, raising concerns
about a potential slowdown in economic momentum later this year.

The US dollar has also weakened, driven by reduced confidence in US

economic leadership, sharply downgraded GDP forecasts, and stronger
global competition, particularly from Europe. The decline in consumer
sentiment and the risk of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could
accelerate the dollarʼs depreciation. Potential repatriation flows from
Japanese investors and interventions by the Bank of Japan may further
complicate the dollarʼs trajectory.

On a positive front, however, The Federal Reserve has eased crypto-asset

rules by withdrawing prior supervisory requirements for the US banking
sector, aiming to promote innovation and simplify procedures for banks
who want to engage in crypto and dollar token activities. This move
signals a more supportive and adaptive regulatory stance toward the
digital asset sector.

In a parallel development, Securitize and Mantle launched the MI4 crypto

index fund with a $400M commitment, offering regulated, diversified
exposure to major cryptocurrencies for institutional investors. The
partnership reflects the growing integration of blockchain into traditional
finance and the advancement of asset tokenization.

CME Group also announced the launch of XRP futures. This expansion
beyond Bitcoin and Ether futures highlights increasing institutional interest
in altcoins and aims to boost XRPʼs liquidity, price discovery, and
mainstream financial adoption following Rippleʼs settlement with the SEC.
 INDEX
1. MARKET SIGNALS 69
- Bitcoin Stands Firm 7-9

2. GENERAL MACRO UPDATE 1019

- How US Trade Policies Affect Employment and Wages 11-13
- US Durable Goods Orders: Cautious Optimism From Uncertain Tariff Policies 14-15
- Behind the Dollarʼs Decline: Economic Implications and Future Risks 16-19

3. NEWS FROM THE CRYPTOSPHERE 2026

- Federal Reserve Eases Crypto-Asset Rules 21-22

- Securitize and Mantle Launch $400M MI4 Crypto Index Fund 23-24
- CME Group to Launch XRP Futures 25-26
MARKET SIGNALS

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 Bitcoin Stands Firm
Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable strength, and has outperformed all other major risk
assets, particularly the S&P 500. Over the past week, BTC has risen by 10.7 percent, against a 4.5
percent increase by the SPX. BTC has also registered seven consecutive green daily closes for
the first time since November 2024.

Figure 1 BTC/USD Daily Chart. Source: Bitfinex)

BTCʼs recovery off its lows following ‘Liberation Dayʼ on April 2nd, has now reached 28.6 percent.
This has pushed Bitcoin above the $94,000 level — the previous range lows— for the first time
since the breakdown on 24th February (see Figure 1 above). This $94,000 range is important as it
had previously formed the foundation for Bitcoin's move to its current all-time high of $109,590.
Regaining this level marks a key technical development, suggesting that the market has absorbed
much of the initial selling pressure, and that confidence may be returning as Bitcoin attempts to
re-establish itself within the prior range structure.

The catalyst behind this rally has been renewed optimism following signals from the US
administration of potential tariff relief on Chinese imports. This shift in tone helped ignite a broader
risk-on move across markets, with both equities and crypto assets climbing higher. Bitcoinʼs sharper
and more sustained reaction compared to traditional equities reinforces its growing resilience and
the underlying demand profile that we have continued to highlight throughout this corrective phase.

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In Bitcoinʼs case, the recent rally has also put it above a crucial on-chain threshold: the Short-Term
Holder STH Cost Basis, currently positioned at $92,900. The STH Cost Basis reflects the average
acquisition price of coins held by newer market participants and has historically acted as a pivotal
marker. Sustained moves above the STH Cost Basis often signal the transition from bearish
corrective phases to renewed bullish momentum during recoveries.

Figure 2 Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realised Price. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro)

However, similar to the dynamics observed in July–September 2024, the current move has, so far,
only resulted in a brief reclaim of the STH Cost Basis. While this signals an initial spark of optimism
among short-term holders, it has not yet confirmed a full regime shift back into a decisive bullish
structure.

The price action from here will be critical: if Bitcoin can hold and consolidate above the previous
range lows (see Figure 1, it could potentially open the path towards challenging the all-time highs
once again. Conversely, failure to sustain above the $92,900 level could indicate that a significant
local top is forming, setting the stage for a broader retracement back towards the low $80,000s or
even revisiting the low $70,000s region. The next few weeks will be key in defining the medium-term
trajectory.

The marketʼs recent push above $94,000 has also been accompanied by a notable recovery in
unrealised profits held by investors. The Percent Supply in Profit metric has climbed to 87.3 percent,
marking a sharp rebound from the local lows seen in March. This uptick in profitability reflects the
broader recovery across the Bitcoin market.

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 Figure 3. BTC Percent Supply In Profit. Source: Glassnode)

Interestingly, when Bitcoin last traded around the $94,000 level in late February and early March,
only 82.7 percent of the circulating supply was in profit. This suggests that since then, around 5
percent of the total Bitcoin supply has changed hands at lower prices, as the market underwent a
period of consolidation and downward volatility.

Historically, an extended period where more than 90 percent of supply remains in profit tends to
align with euphoria phases within bull markets, often signalling widespread investor confidence and
elevated risk appetite. While we are not quite at that critical threshold yet, the current trajectory
indicates that a foundation for more sustained upside could be forming — provided that broader
macroeconomic conditions remain supportive and Bitcoin can continue building strength above key
technical and on-chain levels.

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GENERAL MACRO
UPDATE

10
 How US Trade Policies Affect
Employment and Wages

Figure 4. Initial Jobless Claims Source: Macromicro, Department of Labor)

The Department of Laborʼs Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report, issued last Thursday,
April 24th, indicated only a slight rise in Americans filing for unemployment benefits. The report
further highlighted the ongoing resilience of the US labour market, despite increased worries
about the future trajectory of the economy. Last weekʼs report reported initial jobless claims
climbing by just 6,000, bringing total joblessness to a seasonally adjusted 222,000—in line with
consensus forecasts. However, concerns, particularly related to US President Donald Trumpʼs
shifting trade policies and his changing position on tariffs, are increasing concerns about how
resilient the economy can continue to be.

Tariffs currently stand at 145 percent on various Chinese imports, with a 10 percent universal tariff
on most other trading partners, and a 25 percent levy on specific goods such as steel, aluminium,
and automobiles. While these measures are intended to support domestic industries and generate
revenue to counterbalance tax cuts, they also risk triggering higher inflation and slowing overall
economic growth.

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Moreover, the ongoing trade uncertainty is notably impacting consumer and business confidence.
Businesses, wary of escalating costs and unpredictable market conditions, have increasingly
expressed caution. This sentiment was further underscored by recent government data revealing
minimal growth in investment in equipment during March. Such hesitation in capital expenditure
typically signals that businesses are concerned about long-term profitability and operational
sustainability.

The uncertainty and rising business costs linked to tariffs are expected to lead to job losses later in
the year, particularly affecting sectors heavily reliant on international trade, such as retail,
manufacturing, and transportation. We expect other sectors will feel the full force of the tariffs by the
second half of the year, which may lead to a potential downturn in the labour market despite current
stability.

Figure 5. Manufacturersʼ New Orders: Non Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

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 Figure 6. New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Wage Satisfaction

Interestingly, despite low unemployment rates (currently at 4.2 percent, typically indicating full
employment), dissatisfaction within the labour market has become increasingly evident. Recent
findings from the New York Federal Reserve's Labor Market Survey reveals a notable drop in the
"reservation wage," or the minimum salary at which individuals would accept new job offers. This
reservation wage fell significantly from $82,135 to $74,236 over the past year, and was particularly
pronounced among men aged over 45. This drop reflects decreasing optimism about wage
prospects and working conditions.

Further, the survey also highlighted falling satisfaction levels related to wage compensation,
benefits, and promotional opportunities. Satisfaction with wage compensation, specifically, has
declined to its lowest point since November 2021. These trends highlight a growing disconnect
between official employment figures and workers' lived experiences, driven partly by fears of
stagnation and limited economic mobility.

In conclusion, while the US labour market shows apparent strength, underlying issues related to
trade policy-induced uncertainty are becoming increasingly visible. Tariffs, intended as economic
stimulants, instead introduce volatility that affects businesses and workers alike. If these policies
persist unchanged, the result may be reduced employment opportunities, slower wage growth, and
an eventual weakening of economic stability.

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 US Durable Goods Orders: Cautious
Optimism From Uncertain Tariff Policies

Figure 7. US Durable Goods Source: US Census Bureau)

In March, orders for US manufactured durable goods experienced a substantial rise, primarily
fueled by a significant increase in demand for commercial aircraft, according to the Census
Bureauʼs Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods. Durable goods orders rose 9.2 percent, as
commercial aircradt order jumped 139 percent. The surge was notably tied to Boeing's report of
192 new aircraft orders in March, a sharp contrast to just 13 orders the month before.

However, this robust activity in aircraft demand masked a broader underlying weakness, given that
core capital goods orders, which is a critical indicator of businessesʼ future investment intentions -
and excludes volatile aircraft and defense-related items - were up only 0.1 percent in March. This
marginal improvement followed a revised 0.3 percent decline in February, highlighting restrained
spending amid escalating trade uncertainties.

The muted growth in core capital goods orders reflects businessesʼ cautious approach as
tariff-related economic uncertainties intensify. This hesitation became evident as US businesses
reconsidered investments due to unpredictable tariff policies and trade disruptions, which threaten
profitability and operational planning.

The stark contrast between the robust aircraft order numbers and the lacklustre performance in
broader business investment points directly to the influence of US trade policies. Recent tariff
developments have created a volatile environment, prompting many companies to delay significant
spending decisions. We expect this cautious stance to continue as tariff-related unpredictability
persists.

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While the spike in aircraft orders contributed significantly to Marchʼs headline durable goods
numbers, broader trends reveal a cautious economic stance among businesses. The escalating
uncertainty surrounding tariffs has dampened investment sentiment, potentially slowing economic
momentum.

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 Behind the Dollarʼs Decline: Economic
Implications and Future Risks
The US dollar has seen significant depreciation in the past four months, triggering concern
about the impact this could have on global markets. Multiple factors have converged to drive this
decline, highlighting deeper structural issues within the US economy and its position relative to
global peers.

A significant factor contributing to the dollarʼs decline is the surprising fiscal stimulus by Germany
last month. This stimulus unexpectedly bolstered Europe's economic outlook, and reduced the
relative attractiveness of the US economy. Concurrently, confidence in the US government's ability
to effectively negotiate favourable trade policies has diminished, leading to downward revisions of
US economic forecasts. Specifically, expectations for US GDP growth have significantly dropped
from an original estimate of 2.5 percent last month to just 2.5 percent, as of April 24th, according
to the US Atlanta Fed GDP Estimates. In contrast, Europeʼs growth outlook has remained relatively
stable, with only minor downward adjustments.

Figure 8. US Dollar Index Chart Source: Tradingview)

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 Figure 9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimates for 2025 Source: The Federal Reserve Atlanta)

Figure 10. Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow Real GDP Estimate for 2025 Q1

Since the 200809 Global Financial Crisis, the dollar has benefitted from the concept of "US
exceptionalism." The phenomena, following the end of the GFC, which saw investors around the
world investing in large unhedged positions that offered exposure to US assets.

According to a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research, about $2 trillion worth of US
investments held by foreign investors are still unhedged. If these investors decide to start hedging
now—or move investments back to their home countries—the dollar could fall even further, as US
assets are sold.
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While many market participants anticipate further declines in the dollarʼs value, uncertainty persists
regarding both the timing and scale of such a move. On a historical basis, the lower dollar levels
recorded during the height of the COVID19 pandemic, suggest that substantial further depreciation
is plausible.

The timing of additional depreciation largely hinges on two critical factors: consistency in US trade
policy and forthcoming economic indicators. A Recent Survey of Consumers from the University of
Michigan, shows a significant weakening in US consumer sentiment, dropping to 52.2 in April,
down from 57.0 in March. This decline marks four consecutive months of deteriorating sentiment
driven by tariff-related economic uncertainty.

Figure 11. Index of Consumer Sentiment Source: University of Michigan)

If key economic indicators such as employment and consumer spending continue to weaken, the
Federal Reserve could respond by cutting interest rates, further reducing the appeal of
dollar-denominated investments, and potentially accelerating currency depreciation.

Within currency markets, the dollar-yen pair is drawing particular attention. Analysts anticipate the
yen to appreciate significantly against the dollar, driven by expected increases in Japanese investor
repatriation flows and currency hedging activities that typically take place during US economic
downturns. The yen traditionally strengthens during periods of economic stress, making it a
favourable hedge against global market volatility or recessions.

Complicating this scenario is the policy stance of the Bank of Japan BOJ, which has been slow in
raising interest rates. The BOJʼs cautious approach contrasts sharply with Washingtonʼs preference
for a weaker dollar relative to the yen, which would help reduce the trade deficit. This mismatch
could heighten tensions between the two countries. If Japan intervenes in currency markets by
selling US Treasury holdings to strengthen the yen—as was seen recently with a $20 billion Treasury
sell-off—it would drive US yields upward, which is definitely not the scenario desired in Washington.

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 Figure 12. Japanese Investors Selling Long-Term Foreign Debt in April
Source: Ministry of Finance Japan)

In conclusion, the recent depreciation of the US dollar reflects deeper economic adjustments and
shifting global dynamics. The dollarʼs trajectory will be heavily influenced by US economic data,
governmental policy coherence, and central bank actions.

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NEWS FROM THE
CRYPTOSPHERE

20
 Federal Reserve Eases Crypto-Asset
Rules

Figure 13. Federal Reserve Eases Crypto-Asset Rules to Encourage Innovation

● The Federal Reserve withdrew several crypto-asset supervisory guidance documents to

better support innovation
● The move simplifies procedures for banks engaging in crypto and dollar token activities
and signals a more adaptive regulatory stance

Last Thursday, April 24th, the Federal Reserve Board rescinded several supervisory guidance
documents related to banks' crypto-asset and ‘dollar tokenʼ activities. This decision aims to align
Fed policy with a more accommodative crypto regulatory environment in the US.

Among the key changes, the Federal Reserve withdrew its 2022 supervisory letter that previously
required state member banks to notify regulators in advance of any planned or ongoing
crypto-asset activities. Going forward, crypto-related activities will be monitored through standard
supervisory processes, eliminating the need for prior notification.

In addition, the Fed has withdrawn its 2023 supervisory letter that outlined a "non-objection"
process for banks participating in dollar token activities. This move reduces procedural hurdles for
banks seeking involvement in dollar-linked digital tokens, such as stablecoins.

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The Fed also announced that, alongside the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, it will join the
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in withdrawing two joint statements issued in 2023,
highlighting risks associated with crypto-asset activities and liquidity risk in crypto markets.

The Board emphasised that these changes are intended to ensure regulatory alignment with the
shifting risk appetite towards the crypto industry, and the desire to promote technological
advancement in the financial sector. The Fed also reiterated its commitment to working alongside
other agencies to evaluate whether additional guidance will be needed in the future to maintain
innovation and financial stability.

For the crypto market, this could mean a more favourable environment for institutional adoption of
digital assets, including stablecoins and tokenised dollars. Increased participation by regulated
banks could enhance the credibility and stability of certain crypto projects, potentially boosting
confidence in the sector. However, the Fedʼs commitment to "monitor evolving risks" suggests that
stricter oversight could still return if market instability resurfaces.

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Securitize and Mantle Launch $400M MI4
Crypto Index Fund

Figure 14. Securitize and Mantle Launch $400M MI4 Crypto Index Fund to Advance Real-World
Asset Tokenisation

● Securitize and Mantle launched the MI4 crypto index fund with a $400M commitment,
offering regulated, diversified exposure to major cryptocurrencies for institutional and
accredited investors

● The partnership highlights the growing integration of blockchain into traditional finance,
setting a new standard for compliant crypto investing and advancing tokenisation in asset
management

Securitize, a real-world asset RWA) tokenisation platform, unveiled last Thursday, April 24th, a new
crypto index fund, backed by a $400 million commitment from Mantle, a Layer 2 blockchain project
built on Ethereum. This fund aims to offer investors diversified exposure to major cryptocurrencies
through a regulated and transparent investment vehicle. The MI4 fund is designed to track a curated
basket of leading crypto assets, providing institutional and accredited investors with a streamlined
entry point into the digital asset market

The partnership underscores a growing trend of integrating blockchain technology into conventional
financial products. By leveraging Securitize's experience offering compliant digital securities, backed
by Mantle's significant investment, the MI4 fund could become one of the leading crypto index
investors.

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The launch of the MI4 fund reflects the increasing demand for regulated crypto investments, and
highlights the potential of tokenisation in transforming asset management. As regulatory
frameworks continue to evolve, collaborations like that of Securitize and Mantle are poised to play a
pivotal role in shaping the future of finance by seamlessly integrating digital assets into mainstream
investment portfolios.

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 CME Group to Launch XRP Futures

Figure 15. CME Group to Launch XRP Futures

● CME Group will launch cash-settled XRP futures on May 19th, 2025 , expanding its crypto
offerings beyond Bitcoin and Ether and reflecting rising institutional interest in altcoins
● The move follows a relatively strong increase in the XRP price year-to-date and the SEC
settlement reached by Ripple. The launch of XRP futures should further boost XRP liquidity,
price discovery, and integration into mainstream finance

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME Group announced plans last Wednesday, April 23rd, to
introduce cash-settled futures contracts for XRP, the digital asset associated with Ripple Labs. This
move marks a significant expansion of CME's cryptocurrency derivatives offerings, which currently
include Bitcoin and Ether futures, and underscores the growing institutional interest in altcoins
beyond the dominant cryptocurrencies.

The proposed XRP futures contracts are designed to cater to both institutional and retail investors,
and will offer both standard and micro-sized contracts to accommodate a range of investment
strategies. These contracts will be financially settled on a monthly basis and will feature
functionalities such as Basis Trade at Index Close BTIC) and block trading, providing traders with
enhanced flexibility and precision in managing their exposure to XRP.

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The introduction of XRP futures is timely, as XRP has demonstrated resilience in 2025, appreciating
by 5.3 percent year-to-date, while Bitcoin and Ether have experienced declines. This performance,
coupled with Ripple Labs' recent settlement of a lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange
Commission over alleged unregistered securities sales, has bolstered confidence in XRP's
regulatory standing and market potential.

CME's initiative aligns with a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial
markets. The launch of XRP futures is expected to enhance liquidity, facilitate price discovery, and
provide a regulated avenue for investors to gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the
underlying asset. This development also paves the way for potential future products, such as
XRP-based exchange-traded funds.

CME Group's expansion into altcoin derivatives signifies a pivotal moment in the convergence of
traditional finance and digital assets, offering investors diversified tools to navigate the evolving
landscape.

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