EQUITIES

AUTOMOTIVE

INDIA ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Tesla’s India entry – A non-starter without a low-cost model

Renewed fear of Tesla’s entry into India

24 FEBRUARY 2025
Securities Research Report There has been renewed news flow around Tesla’s (-) entry into India, along with an expectation of
Production time: 10:28* (London time) a lower-cost model that could disrupt the Indian Automotive sector. While we have seen such news
Research Analysts & Publishing Entities
previously as well, customer-facing job postings in India by Tesla make the news more credible.
Kumar Rakesh
BNP Paribas Securities India Private Tesla - A true low-cost model unlikely
Limited
(+91) 22 6196 4350
We expect Tesla's entry into India to be slow and measured, given the low average price point in
[email protected] the market. Tesla has plans to launch an affordable version of the M3/Y in 2H25, with management
Stuart Pearson, CFA guiding to a price of cUSD30k after IRA subsidies of EUR7.5k in the US, implying an ex-subsidy
BNP Paribas London Branch price of cUSD37.5k. Assuming Tesla can produce and sell at as low as USD30k, it will be
(+44) 203 430 8545 considered expensive for mass volume in India once 15% custom duties are considered. In our
[email protected]
view, local production won’t make sense unless Tesla can reduce the price to <USD30k to allow for
mass volumes in India. Tesla has also ended its true low-cost Model 2 efforts a year ago, with
focus shifting to Robotaxi and robotics plans. Tesla's plans for a new 'unboxed' assembly process
and plant in Mexico have also been shelved as a result. Hence, we it unlikely these plans will be
revived for India. Note that Musk has said that developing a cUSD25k car is pointless in a Robotaxi
world, as it will simply not be required (link). We expect Tesla to address India by exporting from
one of its existing plants. This would limit volumes to very low levels for the foreseeable future.

Recent correction in Mahindra looks overdone

India offers a c1m unit market opportunity for cars priced >USD23k. Among the OEMs most at risk
in that segment is Mahindra (c46% volume share). We do not see any material risk to MM from the
existing Tesla models and a new USD25k model is unlikely. We also believe Tesla launching a
locally manufactured model at <USD30k is unlikely. Post the recent correction, MM’s core Auto P/E
Fenil Jain^
Associate who provided support
is trading below that of MSIL and looks attractive to us. Recall, last year MM’s stock corrected by
services in the preparation of this report c9% in two weeks on fears of Tesla’s entry. However, the stock recovered swiftly post that.
Mahindra and Mahindra (+) Maruti Suzuki (+) Tata Motors (+)
Closing Price*: INR2,839  TP: INR3,520  Upside: 24% Closing Price*: INR12,441  TP: INR17,900  Upside: 44 Closing Price*: INR689.8  TP: INR935  Upside: 36%
OEMs  India OEMs  India OEMs  India
Market cap: INR3,418.1bn / EUR37.7bn Market cap: INR3,911.3bn / EUR43.1bn Market cap: INR2,641.0bn / EUR29.1bn

03/24 03/25e 03/26e 03/27e 03/24 03/25e 03/26e 03/27e 03/24e 03/25e 03/26e 03/27e
EPS, Adjusted (INR) 88.7 99.4 110.2 131.2 EPS, Adjusted (INR) 431.1 452.6 566.4 634.2 EPS, Adjusted (INR) 57.1 62.4 71.0 86.3
EPS, Company (INR) 88.4 99.4 110.2 131.2 EPS, Company (INR) 431.1 452.6 566.4 634.2 EPS, Company (INR) 82.0 62.4 71.0 86.3
EPS - Refinitiv (INR) 89.1 100.9 116.8 131.1 EPS - Refinitiv (INR) 431.1 461.0 526.5 587.2 EPS - Refinitiv (INR) 84.4 58.9 68.7 81.0
P/E (x) 17.4 28.6 25.8 21.6 P/E (x) 23.3 27.5 22.0 19.6 P/E (x) 11.8 11.1 9.7 8.0
Net yield (%) 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.4 Net yield (%) 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 Net yield (%) 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6
FCF yield (%) 4.5 3.6 3.7 4.1 FCF yield (%) 2.7 2.6 3.3 3.9 FCF yield (%) 0.1 16.4 9.2 13.6
EV/Sales (x) 1.5 2.6 2.1 1.9 EV/Sales (x) 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.3 EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6 18.5 16.8 13.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6 14.7 12.1 10.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 4.6 3.9 2.9
EV/EBITA (x) 15.9 24.4 21.8 17.4 EV/EBITA (x) 14.2 17.8 14.7 12.3 EV/EBITA (x) 9.5 7.7 6.3 4.6
EV/CE (x) 8.5 13.4 11.3 9.2 EV/CE (x) 12.4 11.3 7.7 5.5 EV/CE (x) 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4
Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) - - - - Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) - - - - Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x) 0.4 - - -
* Closing prices at 20 February - All valuation metrics based on
adjusted figures

See page 10 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures, Non-US Research Analyst disclosures and BNP Paribas Group Corporate Social Responsibility ("CSR") policies. For
time of dissemination, please refer to the Cube. In November 2023, Exane SA and BNP Paribas SA completed their legal merger, with BNP Paribas SA as the succeeding legal entity. BNPP has adopted strict CSR policies that govern financing
and investment in certain sectors.

[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.

Refinitiv

Tesla needs a cheaper model for India

Tesla incorporated its Indian entity in early 2021, Tesla India Motors and Energy. Since
then, the entity has seen ramp-ups and ramp-downs in the number of employees.

Figure 1: Tesla India’s ramp-ups and ramp-downs in its local workforce

Number of Tesla India Motors and Energy employees

18

16

14

12

10

0
Apr-21

Oct-21
Aug-21

Dec-21

Apr-22

Oct-22
Aug-22

Dec-22

Apr-23

Oct-23
Aug-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Oct-24
Aug-24

Dec-24
Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24
Feb-22

Feb-23

Feb-24
TESLA INDIA MOTORS AND ENERGY PRIVATE LIMITED

Source: EPFO, BNP Paribas Exane

We have seen news flow of Tesla’s entry into the Indian Automotive market multiple
times in the past. However, job postings in India by Tesla, especially those related to
vehicle service, and sales and customer support, do make it more credible than in the
past.

Figure 2: Recent job listings by Tesla in India

Job listings by Tesla on its portal for India
Designation Category Location

Charging Developer Charging Mumbai Suburban

PCB Design Engineer, Electronic Systems Engineering & Information Technology Pune, Maharashtra
Business Operations Analyst Operations & Business Support Mumbai Suburban
Delivery Operations Specialist Operations & Business Support Mumbai Suburban
Order Operations Specialist Operations & Business Support Mumbai Suburban
Tesla Advisor Sales & Customer Support Mumbai Suburban
Store Manager Sales & Customer Support Mumbai Suburban
Customer Support Supervisor Sales & Customer Support Mumbai Suburban
Customer Support Specialist Sales & Customer Support Mumbai Suburban
Inside Sales Advisor Sales & Customer Support Mumbai Suburban
Consumer Engagement Manager Sales & Customer Support Mumbai Suburban
Service Advisor Vehicle Service Mumbai Suburban
Parts Advisor Vehicle Service Mumbai Suburban
Service Technician Vehicle Service Mumbai Suburban
Service Manager Vehicle Service Mumbai Suburban

Source: Tesla, BNP Paribas Exane

We find the current models of Tesla to be too expensive for the Indian Automotive
market. Tesla’s models, after considering the likely reduced customs duty, would still
start at INR4.2m, well above cINR1.1m, which is the average price of models sold in

BNP Paribas Exane Research India Electric Vehicles 24 FEBRUARY 2025 page 2

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 India. Hence, we do not see a material disruption potential from Tesla’s existing model
portfolio.

Figure 3: Likely prices of Tesla’s model in India

Ex-showroom prices (INR)

Variant Model S Model 3 Model Y New Model Y Model X Cybertruck

Plaid 9,464,424 9,962,604
All-Wheel Drive Long-range 7,969,884 4,731,714 4,731,714 5,977,164 8,468,064 7,969,884
Performance 5,478,984 5,130,258
Rear-Wheel Drive Long-range 4,233,534 4,482,624
Performance
Cyberbeast 9,962,604

Calculated based on the USDINR rate of 86.5 and custom duty of 15%
Source: BNP Paribas Exane estimates

Indian market opportunity of c1m units but needs lower-priced models

The average price of cars sold in India is cNR1.1m or USD13k. We estimate
approximately 25% of the industry volume to be of models sold above the price of
USD23k, which would be the most at risk if Tesla launches a product below USD30k.
Hence, the estimate the Indian Automotive market offers c1m annual volume
opportunity at a price above USD23k. However, to capture this, the company will need
a lower-priced model, preferably one that is priced below cUSD30k and manufactured
locally.

Figure 4: Indian Automotive industry is dominated by models priced <INR1.5m

Share of industry volume by segments

Vans Mini hatchback

SUVs priced 4% 3%
INR2m+
15%
Compact
hatchback/sedan
27%

SUVs priced
INR1m+
18% Mid-sise and
premium sedan
2%

Compact SUV
31%

Mini :Seats upto-5, length normally <3600 mm, engine displacement normally up to 1.0 Litre
Compact hatchback/sedan: Seats upto-5, length normally between 3600 - 4000 mm, engine displacement
normally up to 1.4 Litre
Mid-size and premium sedan: Seats upto-5, length normally above 4250 mm
Compact SUV : Length < 4000 mm & starting price <INR2m
SUVs priced over INR1m are usually of length 4000 - 4400 mm
SUVs priced above INR2m are of length above 4400 mm
Based on April to December 2024 data
Source: SIAM, BNP Paribas Exane estimates

BNP Paribas Exane Research India Electric Vehicles 24 FEBRUARY 2025 page 3

[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.

 Indian OEMs at risk
Among OEMs with SUVs priced above INR2m, Mahindra has the highest share of
c46% and hence is at the highest risk of a disruption if Tesla enters the Indian
Automotive market with a lower-priced model.

Figure 5: OEM wise market share in the segments at most risk

Market share in SUV models priced above INR2m Market share in the compact SUV (priced INR1m+)
50% 45%
45% 40%
40% 35%
35%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15% 15%

10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
FCA India Automobiles
Kia India

Maruti Suzuki India

Hyundai Motor India

SkodaAuto India
JSW MG Motor India

Volkswagen India
Tata Motors

Isuzu Motors India

Mahindra & Mahindra

Toyota Kirloskar Motor

Force Motors

PCA Motors.

Maruti Suzuki India

Hyundai Motor India

Kia India

Honda Cars India

Volkswagen India

SkodaAuto India

JSW MG Motor India

Tata Motors
Toyota Kirloskar Motor

PCA Motors.

Force Motors
Data for the period April-December 2024
Source: SIAM, BNP Paribas Exane estimates

Figure 6: Mahindra & Mahindra’s model wise pricing

XUV 3XO
Bolero
Bolero Neo
Thar
Thar Roxx
Scorpio
XUV400
XUV700
Scorpio N
Marazzo
BE 6
XEV 9e

900 1,400 1,900 2,400 2,900 3,400

(INR '000)

Source: BNP Paribas Exane estimates

Among Mahindra’s models, we see XUV7OO and its upcoming BEV models as the
most at risk. However, we do not see any material risk from the existing Tesla models
on Mahindra’s portfolio. The risk only emerges if Tesla launches a lower-priced locally
manufactured model.

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 Figure 7: Mahindra & Mahindra: We see XUV700 to be at most risk, along with the
upcoming BEV models
Models Top variant price (INR) Volume share (%)
Scorpio N 3,002,000 30.3
XUV 3XO 1,839,000 19.3
XUV700 3,146,000 17.5
Bolero 1,322,000 16.5
Thar 2,132,000 9.3
Thar Roxx 2,810,000 5.4
XUV400 1,891,000 1.0
Bolero Neo 1,465,000 0.8
Marazzo 2,051,000 0.0

Volume share data based on April to December 2024

Source: SIAM, BNP Paribas Exane estimates

Indian government’s EV policy needs a localisation plan by OEMs

In March 2024, the Government of India announced a new EV policy under which the
customs duty is proposed to be reduced to 15% (from 110% at the time of policy
announcement). However, there are several riders to take advantage of this reduced
customs duty.

 Minimum investment required: INR41.5b (cUSD480m at current exchange

rate)
 Timeline for manufacturing: 3 years for setting up manufacturing facilities in
India, and to start commercial production of EVs, and reach 50% domestic
value addition (DVA) within 5 years at the maximum.
 Domestic value addition (DVA) during manufacturing: A localisation level of
25% by the third year and 50% by the fifth year.
 The customs duty of 15% on CKD units will be applicable on vehicles with a
minimum CIF value of USD35k and above for a total period of 5 years, subject
to the manufacturer setting up manufacturing facilities in India within a 3-year
period.
 Limitations on lower customs duty: A maximum of 40,000 EVs at the rate of
not more than 8,000 per year would be permissible if the investment is
USD800m or more.

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 MM’s valuation looks attractive

After the recent correction, Mahindra is trading at a one-year forward P/E (core Auto),
which is lower than that of Maruti Suzuki and looks attractive to us.

Figure 8: MM valuation correction offers an attractive entry point

MM’s core Automotive business’ one-year forward P/E multiple

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0
(x)

15.0

10.0

5.0
Aug-20

Nov-20

Aug-21

Nov-21

Aug-22

Nov-22

Aug-23

Nov-23

Aug-24

Nov-24
May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

May-24
Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22

Feb-23

Feb-24

Feb-25
P/E (implied core auto) -1SD 5-yr average +1SD

Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Exane

Recall, last year in March as well, we saw a sharp correction in Mahindra’s stock driven
by fears of Tesla’s entry into the Indian market (link). The stock corrected by c9% in two
weeks. However, the stock recovered swiftly the following month.

Figure 9: Impact of news of Tesla potential entry in March 2024

Stock price reaction of key Indian Auto stocks to Tesla’s entry news flow last year
------------------------- 2024 Performance -------------------------

1-Mar to 15-Mar 15-Mar to 15-Apr

BSE Sensex -1% 1%
Maruti Suzuki -1% 8%
Tata Motors -3% 6%
Mahindra & Mahindra -9% 14%

Source: BNP Paribas Exane

BNP Paribas Exane Research India Electric Vehicles 24 FEBRUARY 2025 page 6

[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.

 Investment case, valuation and risks

Mahindra and Mahindra (Outperform, Target Price INR3,520)

Investment case
MM continues to see strong traction in new SUV models, with new monthly bookings
exceeding its billings. Also, the company's target capacity of 72k/month by end-FY26
offers significant volume growth upside. Through recent model launches, MM has
repositioned itself with a strong brand identity in the SUV space. While the slow
production ramp-up has been disappointing, we see MM's SUV portfolio to be among
the strongest in the industry. This should also help MM's BEV models as they are
launched in the coming years. Also, we expect MM's tractor model launches, to plug
gaps in its product portfolio, to drive continued tractor market share gain. We also see
material value-unlocking potential if MM's board decides to list auto and farm
businesses separately.

Valuation methodology
MM is a combination of a variety of businesses that have different cycles and demand
drivers. It is also a holding company of several listed and unlisted firms across sectors
such as technology, hospitality, financial services and real estate. We value its Farm
Equipment Segment (FES) at 21x Dec-26E EV/EBIT, which is similar to the current
one-year forward multiple of its peer Escorts. We now blend in EV volumes into our
Automotive business estimates. Accordingly, we value its automotive business (PV +
LCV) at 25x Dec-26E EV/EBIT, derived from assigning a 25% premium to our target
multiples for MSIL (PV proxy) and AL (LCV proxy). We value its equity holding in listed
subsidiaries by using latest market prices and applying a holding company discount of
20%.

Risks
To the upside:
Upside risks to our SoTP-based TP include: 1) Recovery in tractor demand, resulting in
a prolonged upcycle; 2) faster-than-expected production ramp-up, resulting in strong
revenue growth; and 3) material market-share gains, resulting from upcoming BEV
models.

To the downside:
Downside risks to our SoTP-based TP include: 1) Loss of market share in utility
vehicles; 2) aggressive market share gains by new LCV models from competitors; 3)
higher-than-expected impact of emission regulations; and 4) higher-than-expected
impact of commodity inflation.

Maruti Suzuki (Outperform, Target Price INR17,900)

Investment case
MSIL is known for its conservative approach to capacity addition. However, after
struggling the most among peers with supply constraints over the past two years,
which also exacerbated its market share loss, MSIL is bouncing back with an
aggressive production ramp-up plan. It aims for a 9% capacity CAGR over the next
seven years - 2x the rate of the past seven years. MSIL's solid execution in the SUV
segment should boost investors' confidence about the sustainability of its leadership
in the Indian PV industry. We derive comfort from MSIL's aggressive capacity
expansion and model launch plans, which give us long-term earnings growth visibility.
MSIL is trading more than 1SD below its past 10-year mean NTM P/E, which looks
attractive to us given the potential for market-share recovery, premiumisation and
margin expansion.

Valuation methodology
Unlike most of its automotive peers, MSIL has a single business operation. We value
MSIL at 29x P/E applied to Dec-26E EPS. Our target multiple is set at a discount to the
past five-year mean NTM P/E (based on Bloomberg consensus estimates), as we

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 expect the company's volume growth to be similar to long-term averages.

Risks
To the upside:
Key upside risks to our P/E-based TP include: 1) Tax benefits for hybrid vehicles
resulting in a material reduction in the prices of MSIL's hybrid models, thus creating a
significant competitive advantage for MSIL as most peers do not possess the
technology; 2) recovery in entry segment demand, driven by rural recovery; and 3)
tightening of emission regulations, resulting in higher pressure on peers.

To the downside:
Key downside risks to our P/E-based TP include: 1) Any incremental supply
constraints; 2) a higher-than-expected impact of commodity inflation; 3) a significant
increase in competitive pressure from peers; 4) failure of new model launches; and 5)
any regulatory changes, such as mandatory six airbags, which materially increase the
cost of the vehicle or make some of the models unviable.

Tata Motors (Outperform, Target Price INR935)

Investment case
JLR is now pivoting to become a modern luxury brand. We think the strategy, if
successful, could offer upside to our margin and FCF expectations, as the JLR
turnaround is the most audacious strategic step by the company, which should offer
material long-term upside. In its domestic business, TTMT aims to expand its PV
market share further through: 1) model launches and refreshes; 2) front-end re-
imagination; and 3) expanding the addressable market for EVs. We continue to see
TTMT going through consolidation in 2025 and the stock lacking positive catalysts.
However, attractive FCF yield and JLR's potential of getting closer to its FY26
guidance keep us interested in TTMT's equity story.

Valuation methodology
TTMT has a diverse set of businesses that are at various stages of capex and have
different accounting policies than peers. Hence, we think a blended valuation method
taking the average of EV/sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and P/E valuations normalises
the impacts of these idiosyncrasies. TTMT's earnings are split into JLR, China JV, CV,
PV, and India EV businesses. Our target valuation multiples for JLR are set by
benchmarking to valuation multiples of BMW and Mercedes Benz. For the China JV,
we use the valuation multiples of Brilliance China Automotive as the benchmark. Our
target multiples for CV are similar to those of AL and for PV. It is at 50% discount to our
target multiple for MSIL, as TTMT's PV business margins reach the industry average.
We value its India EV business at the average of the valuation range of the last funding
round, taken with a 30% discount to factor in the correction in global EV peers'
valuation since then. The company also has various subsidiaries and investments,
which we value at a 30% holding company discount to the latest market price, where
available, or at multiples similar to those of listed peers.

Risks
To the upside:
Key upside risks to our SoTP-based target price include: 1) Strong customer
acceptance of new JLR model launches; 2) prolonged mix and pricing benefits,
resulting in strong margins and FCF at JLR; 3) longer-than-expected CV upcycle; and
4) strong pricing discipline, leading to higher-than-expected margin expansion in CVs.

To the downside:
Key downside risks to our SoTP-based target price include: 1) A sharp increase in
interest rates; 2) a fall in consumer confidence across key markets; 3) strict lockdowns,
resulting in economic impact; 4) a further sharp increase in commodity prices; 5) any
trade tariffs between the UK and key markets; and 6) a significant loss of market share
due to the poor traction of JLR's EV models.

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 Tesla (Underperform, Target Price USD157)
Investment case
Tesla may be the victim of its own ambition in our view, with its insatiable appetite for
growth leaving the company with more on its plate - and more in consensus
expectations - than it is able to execute on successfully in our view. With an ageing
product range, we see material downside to consensus estimates. We are also
sceptical regarding the firm's software opportunity, where it has consistently missed
self-driving targets, and is essentially still focused on a Level-2 camera-based
system. The path to Robotaxi deployment will also likely be a long and uncertain one,
with significant cash burn on the way. We thus struggle to justify the valuation that
bulls see and rate the stock at Underperform.

Valuation methodology
We use a SOP based valuation for Tesla consisting of the following components: (i)
Core autos (incl. FSD), which we value using a DCF approach through to 2030e, using
a 7% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth; (ii) Energy storage, which we value using
clean energy peer multiples; (iii) Robotaxi, for which we use a DCF model running out
to 2040e, using a 9% WACC and 5% terminal growth; (iv) Robotics, which we value
using capital goods peers multiples. We do not attribute separate value for batteries, as
Tesla is only supplying a few percent of its own battery needs, and we do not see it
becoming a 3rd party supplier within our forecast horizon.

Risks
To the upside:
Key upside risks include (i) a faster ramp up of more affordable BEV Models; (ii) higher
licensing royalties of FSD to other OEMs; (iii) swifter execution on Robotaxi plans; and
(iv) increasing profits in the energy storage and services businesses.

To the downside:
Key downside risks include (i) execution risk on the Mexican factory start-up and Model
2/Q ramp; (ii) saturated demand for EVs; (iii) reduced subsidies for EVs; (iv)
governance related risks associated with Tesla's CEO's public statements and
management style; and (v) broader macro-economic risks that could derail demand,
thus undermining FCF and liquidity. Tesla is also exposed to geopolitical trade risks
given its exports of vehicles from China and dependence on a global - but China
dominated - battery supply chain.

BNP Paribas Exane Research India Electric Vehicles 24 FEBRUARY 2025 page 9

[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst Certification
We, Stuart Pearson, Kumar Rakesh, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal
view(s) about the company or companies and securities discussed in this report. No part of our compensation was, is, or will be,
directly, or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Non-US Research Analyst Disclosure
The research analysts named below were involved in preparing this research report. They are not associated persons of BNP Paribas
Securities Corp. and thus they are not registered or qualified in the U.S. as research analysts with the Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority (FINRA) or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). These non-U.S. analysts are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 concerning
communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Stuart Pearson BNP Paribas London Kumar Rakesh BNP Paribas
Branch Securities India Private
Limited
Research Analyst Compensation
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report receive(s) compensation based upon various factors including
overall firm revenues, which include revenues from investment banking activities and/or sales and trading activities.
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Company/ies Ticker/s Relevant Disclosures

Mahindra and MM IN 2; 3; 4; 7; 8; 9; 10
Mahindra
Maruti Suzuki MSIL IN 3; 4; 7; 8; 9; 10
Tata Motors TTMT IN 7; 9; 10
Tesla TSLA US 6
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3 – BNPP received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company/ies in the past 12 months.
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past 12 months.
8 – BNPP has or had an investment banking client relationship with the subject company/ies in the last 12 months.
9 – BNPP has or had a non-investment banking securities services client relationship with the subject company/ies in the last 12
months.
10 – BNPP has or had a non-securities services client relationship with the subject company/ies in the last 12 months.
11 – BNPP beneficially owns a net long or short position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the subject company/ies.
12 – BNPP is party to an agreement with the issuer relating to the production of the recommendation.
13 – Sections of this report, with the research summary, target price and rating removed, have been presented to the subject
company/ies prior to its distribution, for the sole purpose of verifying the accuracy of factual statements.
14 – Following the presentation of sections of this report to the subject company/ies, some conclusions were amended.
15 – A member of BNPP Equity Research is an officer or a member of the Board of the subject company/ies.
16 – The subject company/ies hold(s) more than 5% of the total issued share capital of BNPP.

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Explanation of Research Ratings
Rating System
Our coverage analysts use a rating system in which they rate stocks as Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform (as defined below) relative to other
companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a 12-month investment horizon.
Prior to 23 September 2024, BNPP ratings were relative ratings defined against the performance of the relevant MSCI sector index, at either the country or
regional level over a 12-month investment horizon.
Outperform (O/P): The stock is expected to outperform the average total return of all companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a 12-
month investment horizon.
Neutral: The stock is expected to perform in line with the average total return of all companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a 12-
month investment horizon.
Underperform (U/P): The stock is expected to underperform the average total return of all companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a
12-month investment horizon.
Under review: The rating of the stock has been placed under review after significant news. Any possible change will be confirmed as soon as possible in
the form of a new broadly disseminated report.
Restricted (RS): The stock is covered by BNPP but there is no Rating and no Target Price because BNPP is involved in an equity capital market/ merger
and acquisition transaction relating to the subject company.
Not Rated (NR): The stock is covered by BNPP but there is no Rating and no Target Price at this time.
Not Covered (NC): BNPP does not cover this company.
ESG Rating Explanation and Methodology
ESG integration methodology: The BNP Paribas approach offers an alternative to mechanistic ESG scores and leverages the in-depth knowledge of
our industry equity research teams by combining quantitative and qualitative factors. There are three steps to our framework; firstly, our teams build a
materiality map to assess which ESG topics are most relevant to their respective industries. Secondly, for the chosen topics, companies are assessed
relative to sector peers. The assessment can be based on metrics and qualitative judgements. Each company is given a one to five score per topic, with
five being the best. Thirdly, based on the topic scores, and any other significant ESG factors, we identify companies in the sector as ESG Leaders, ESG
Laggards or ESG Average. The definition of the ratings is shown below: they are not based on the average topic score as some topic scores can be more
material than others.
ESG Leader: Relative to sector peers an ESG Leader is better positioned on the chosen ESG topics, or other relevant ESG considerations.
ESG Average: A company rated as ESG Average may have strong or poor performance on an individual ESG topic, but overall has an average exposure
to ESG risks and opportunities.
ESG Laggard: Relative to sector peers an ESG Laggard is poorly positioned on the chosen ESG topics, or other relevant ESG considerations for the
stock.
Distribution of BNP Paribas’ Equity Recommendations
As at 01 January 2025 BNP Paribas covered 1054 companies. The companies that, for regulatory reasons, are not accorded a rating by BNPP are
excluded from these statistics. For regulatory reasons, our ratings of Outperform, Neutral and Underperform correspond respectively to Buy, Hold and
Sell; the underlying signification is, however, different as our ratings are relative to the sector.

Investment Banking Services

Ratings Stocks coverage
Within the previous 12 months
Counts %* Counts %*
Outperform (Buy) 490 46 165 34
Neutral (Hold) 386 37 114 30
Underperform (Sell) 178 17 45 25

* Please note that the percentages might not add up to 100% because of rounding.

BNP Paribas Financing and Investment Policies

Sustainability is core to BNP Paribas’ company purpose: “we are engaged with our clients to create a better future”.
In line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the BNP Paribas Group has thus pledged to act as a catalyst in the energy transition, and
to contribute to a responsible and sustainable economy. As a bank, we are required to finance a number of industries, some of which can pose major
environmental, social and governance (ESG) challenges. That’s why, since 2010, BNP Paribas has adopted and regularly reviewed sector policies laying
down strict ESG criteria meant to govern our financing and investments in these sensitive areas. They aim to support our customers in their transitions
towards sustainable practices. For more details, please refer to: Financing and investment policies - BNP Paribas (https://group.bnpparibas/en/our-
commitments/transitions/financing-and-investment-policies).

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Price and Ratings Chart#

Mahindra and Mahindra

Historical Closing Price & Target Price (closing price as of 21/02/2025)

Source: BNP Paribas

Historical rating & target price changes#

Date & Time of
Dissemination Rating Target Price Closing Price  Key Changes Person(s) Involved
(London time)
24 Jan. 2025 13:21 + INR3520.00 INR2801.40 TP up K. Rakesh
7 Nov. 2024 19:02 + INR3400.00 INR2891.35 TP up K. Rakesh
16 Oct. 2024 04:23 + INR3330.00 INR3068.00 TP up K. Rakesh
31 Jul. 2024 22:43 + INR3100.00 INR2907.80 TP up K. Rakesh
15 Jul. 2024 12:18 + INR3000.00 INR2731.05 TP up K. Rakesh
17 May 2024 03:04 + INR2550.00 INR2514.60 TP up K. Rakesh
17 Apr. 2024 13:02 + INR2050.00 INR2031.30 TP up K. Rakesh
15 Feb. 2024 01:43 + INR1980.00 INR1765.05 TP up K. Rakesh
24 Jan. 2024 02:38 + INR1960.00 INR1628.10 TP up K. Rakesh
18 Oct. 2023 23:00 na INR1905.00 INR1574.85 TP down K. Rakesh
7 Aug. 2023 23:00 na INR1930.00 INR1526.90 TP up K. Rakesh
18 Jul. 2023 23:00 na INR1920.00 INR1534.70 TP up K. Rakesh
29 May 2023 23:00 na INR1835.00 INR1316.36 TP up K. Rakesh
12 Feb. 2023 23:00 na INR1780.00 INR1351.29 TP up K. Rakesh
17 Jan. 2023 23:00 na INR1760.00 INR1307.15 TP down K. Rakesh
14 Nov. 2022 23:00 na INR1790.00 INR1264.89 TP up K. Rakesh
29 Sep. 2022 23:00 na INR1575.00 INR1245.30 TP up K. Rakesh
7 Aug. 2022 23:00 na INR1390.00 INR1223.08 TP up K. Rakesh
20 Jul. 2022 23:00 na INR1325.00 INR1153.56 TP up K. Rakesh
31 May 2022 23:00 na INR1130.00 INR1013.26 TP up K. Rakesh
14 Apr. 2022 23:00 na INR1100.00 INR848.44 TP down K. Rakesh
11 Feb. 2022 23:00 na INR1160.00 INR836.24 TP down K. Rakesh
Note:
- Closing price is based on market close price on last business close date.
- Closing prices and target prices have been adjusted to take into account stock split or corporate actions where applicable.
- All ratings and target prices are valid for 12 months.

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Maruti Suzuki
Historical Closing Price & Target Price (closing price as of 21/02/2025)

Source: BNP Paribas

Historical rating & target price changes#

Date & Time of
Dissemination Rating Target Price Closing Price  Key Changes Person(s) Involved
(London time)
29 Jan. 2025 17:46 + INR17900.00 INR11977.90 TP up K. Rakesh
24 Jan. 2025 13:21 + INR17600.00 INR11967.90 TP up K. Rakesh
29 Oct. 2024 17:51 + INR16600.00 INR11046.00 TP down K. Rakesh
16 Oct. 2024 04:23 + INR16900.00 INR12383.90 TP down K. Rakesh
31 Jul. 2024 22:45 + INR17200.00 INR13115.80 TP up K. Rakesh
15 Jul. 2024 12:18 + INR16230.00 INR12643.95 TP up K. Rakesh
2 May 2024 18:44 + INR15800.00 INR12805.35 TP up K. Rakesh
1 Feb. 2024 01:24 + INR12200.00 INR10637.95 TP up K. Rakesh
24 Jan. 2024 02:38 + INR12000.00 INR9988.20 TP down K. Rakesh
30 Nov. 2023 18:54 + INR13500.00 INR10608.70 TP up K. Rakesh
18 Oct. 2023 23:00 na INR13000.00 INR10788.45 TP up K. Rakesh
1 Aug. 2023 23:00 na INR12700.00 INR9626.16 TP down K. Rakesh
18 Jul. 2023 23:00 na INR13000.00 INR9575.54 TP up K. Rakesh
27 Apr. 2023 23:00 na INR12500.00 INR8463.30 TP up K. Rakesh
25 Jan. 2023 23:00 na INR12100.00 INR8702.21 TP up K. Rakesh
17 Jan. 2023 23:00 na INR11800.00 INR8400.30 TP down K. Rakesh
29 Oct. 2022 23:00 na INR12300.00 INR9404.05 TP up K. Rakesh
29 Sep. 2022 23:00 na INR11800.00 INR8544.44 TP up K. Rakesh
28 Jul. 2022 23:00 na INR11250.00 INR8583.23 TP down K. Rakesh
20 Jul. 2022 23:00 na INR11350.00 INR8610.79 TP up K. Rakesh
1 May 2022 23:00 na INR10500.00 INR7595.84 TP up K. Rakesh
14 Apr. 2022 23:00 na INR10300.00 INR7351.46 TP down K. Rakesh
Note:
- Closing price is based on market close price on last business close date.
- Closing prices and target prices have been adjusted to take into account stock split or corporate actions where applicable.
- All ratings and target prices are valid for 12 months.

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Tata Motors
Historical Closing Price & Target Price (closing price as of 21/02/2025)

Source: BNP Paribas

Historical rating & target price changes#

Date & Time of
Dissemination Rating Target Price Closing Price  Key Changes Person(s) Involved
(London time)
30 Jan. 2025 02:16 + INR935.00 INR696.85 TP down K. Rakesh
24 Jan. 2025 13:21 + INR990.00 INR734.10 TP down K. Rakesh
11 Nov. 2024 02:00 + INR1050.00 INR804.70 TP down K. Rakesh
16 Oct. 2024 04:23 + INR1120.00 INR907.45 TP down K. Rakesh
2 Aug. 2024 03:31 + INR1220.00 INR1096.65 TP up K. Rakesh
15 Jul. 2024 12:18 + INR1215.00 INR1024.45 TP up K. Rakesh
17 Apr. 2024 13:02 + INR1200.00 INR989.74 TP up K. Rakesh
5 Feb. 2024 02:51 + INR1035.00 INR923.94 TP up K. Rakesh
24 Jan. 2024 02:38 + INR1000.00 INR808.40 TP up K. Rakesh
3 Nov. 2023 23:00 + INR785.00 INR645.50 TP up K. Rakesh
26 Jul. 2023 23:00 + INR770.00 INR637.14 TP up K. Rakesh
18 Jul. 2023 23:00 + INR710.00 INR608.32 TP up K. Rakesh
15 May 2023 23:00 + INR655.00 INR527.57 TP up K. Rakesh
17 Jan. 2023 23:00 + INR535.00 INR412.73 TP down K. Rakesh
10 Nov. 2022 23:00 + INR545.00 INR409.65 TP down K. Rakesh
29 Sep. 2022 23:00 + INR565.00 INR399.76 TP down K. Rakesh
14 Apr. 2022 23:00 + INR690.00 INR428.38 TP up K. Rakesh
Note:
- Closing price is based on market close price on last business close date.
- Closing prices and target prices have been adjusted to take into account stock split or corporate actions where applicable.
- All ratings and target prices are valid for 12 months.

BNP Paribas Exane Research India Electric Vehicles 24 FEBRUARY 2025 page 14

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Tesla
Historical Closing Price & Target Price (closing price as of 21/02/2025)

Source: BNP Paribas

Historical rating & target price changes#

Date & Time of
Dissemination Rating Target Price Closing Price  Key Changes Person(s) Involved
(London time)
24 Jan. 2025 23:00 - USD157.00 USD406.58 TP down S. Pearson
8 Jan. 2025 16:39 - USD157.00 USD394.94 TP up S. Pearson, S. Benhamou, W. Jones
20 Dec. 2024 05:57 - USD155.00 USD421.06 TP up S. Pearson, W. Jones
30 Oct. 2024 06:06 - USD116.00 USD257.55 TP up S. Pearson, W. Jones
24 Jul. 2024 06:18 - USD103.00 USD215.99 TP down S. Pearson
10 Jun. 2024 06:18 - USD105.00 USD173.79 TP down S. Pearson, W. Jones
24 Apr. 2024 11:20 - USD113.00 USD162.13 TP down S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, W. Jones
17 Apr. 2024 06:21 - USD116.00 USD155.45 TP down D. Cresswell, S. Pearson, S. Benhamou, W. Jones
10 Oct. 2023 06:11 - USD120.00 USD263.62 TP down S. Pearson, G. Pescatore
5 Jul. 2023 06:06 - USD130.00 USD282.48 TP up S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, G. Pescatore, W. Jones
19 May 2023 06:06 - USD120.00 USD180.14 TP down S. Pearson, G. Pescatore
20 Apr. 2023 09:16 - USD125.00 USD162.99 TP down S. Pearson, G. Pescatore
23 Mar. 2023 06:14 - USD140.00 USD192.22 TP up S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, G. Pescatore
23 Feb. 2023 11:39 - USD125.00 USD202.07 TP up S. Pearson, G. Pescatore
23 Jan. 2023 06:12 - USD93.00 USD143.75 TP up S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, G. Pescatore
13 Jan. 2023 14:52 - USD89.00 USD122.40 TP down S. Pearson, D. Cresswell
11 Jan. 2023 16:40 - USD97.00 USD123.22 TP down S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, G. Pescatore
21 Dec. 2022 08:46 - USD130.00 USD137.57 TP down S. Pearson, G. Pescatore
8 Dec. 2022 05:59 - USD145.00 USD173.44 TP down D. Cresswell, S. Pearson
10 Oct. 2022 16:41 - USD165.00 USD222.96 TP down S. Pearson, D. Cresswell
21 Jul. 2022 08:47 - USD180.00 USD271.71 TP down S. Pearson, A. Bregeaut
18 Jul. 2022 06:02 - USD188.33 USD240.55 TP up S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, G. Pescatore, A. Bregeaut
28 Jun. 2022 16:43 - USD180.00 USD232.66 TP down S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, G. Pescatore, A. Bregeaut
17 May 2022 16:40 - USD200.00 USD253.87 TP down S. Pearson, A. Bregeaut
21 Apr. 2022 11:13 - USD233.33 USD336.26 TP up S. Pearson, A. Bregeaut
16 Mar. 2022 16:52 - USD215.00 USD280.08 TP down S. Pearson, D. Cresswell, G. Pescatore, A. Bregeaut
Note:
- Closing price is based on market close price on last business close date.
- Closing prices and target prices have been adjusted to take into account stock split or corporate actions where applicable.
- All ratings and target prices are valid for 12 months.

For policies for managing conflicts of interest in relation to investment research, go to COI_investement_research.pdf (cib.bnpparibas)

The company-specific disclosures, history of recommendations, valuation methodologies and investment case risks for companies covered by
this report are available on https://cube.cib.bnpparibas/slink/sk6Ekek18ZSWszRb.
For material information about the proprietary models used, please see summary of financials in company-specific research reports and company
page on https://cube.cib.bnpparibas.

Legal Entity/ies Responsible for the Production of Research

This report is produced by the publishing entity/ies identified on the cover page which is/are member company/ies of the BNPP group of
companies. Please refer to the Legal Entity Disclosures and Country-/Regional-Specific Disclosures for their relevant competent authority/ies.
'BNP Paribas Exane' is a trade name of BNP Paribas SA and its affiliates and branches.

BNP Paribas Exane Research India Electric Vehicles 24 FEBRUARY 2025 page 15

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Price at 21 Feb. 25 / 12m Target Price
INR2,669 / INR3,520 +32% MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA (Outperform)
Refinitiv / Bloomberg: MAHM.NS / MM IN Analyst: Kumar Rakesh (+91) 22 6196 4350 OEMs | Automotive - India
Com pany Highlights INRm / EURm
4,000.0
Enterprise value 2,789,159 / 30,767 Target Price
Market capitalisation 3,213,369 / 35,446
2,500.0
Free float 2,313,625 / 25,521
3m average volume 9,124 / 101
1,500.0
Perform ance (*) 1m 3m 12m
Absolute (5%) (9%) 44%
Rel. Sector NC NC NC
Rel. MSCI India (3%) (5%) 40%
500.0
12m Hi/Lo (INR) : 3,211 -17% / 1,800 +48%
CAGR 2011/2024 2024/2026
EPS restated 11% 15% 246.5
CFPS 12% 13% Price 15.3*CFPS Relative to MS CI Ind ia ( INR)
Price (yearly avg from Mar. 14 to Mar. 24) 411.0 563.4 576.2 618.1 657.2 767.6 539.8 610.1 793.7 1,167.9 1,542.8 2,669.4 2,669.4 2,669.4
PER SHARE DATA (INR) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
No of shares year end, basic, (m) 1 200.602 1 203.002 1 203.802 1 203.802 1 189.933 1 191.587 1 193.040 1 194.768 1 196.601 1 198.118 1 199.240 1 203.802 1 203.802 1 203.802
Avg no of shares, diluted, excl. treasury stocks (m) 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 200.128 1 201.178 1 200.055 1 203.802 1 203.802 1 203.802
EPS reported, Gaap 30.81 28.46 27.78 32.31 38.41 43.27 6.14 7.67 40.56 54.80 88.38 99.44 110.22 131.23
EPS company definition 30.81 28.46 27.78 32.31 38.41 43.27 6.14 7.67 40.56 54.80 88.38 99.44 110.22 131.23
EPS restated, fully diluted 30.49 26.43 27.83 31.15 35.81 41.59 24.07 26.97 41.69 63.44 88.68 99.44 110.22 131.23
% change 2.2% (13.3%) 5.3% 11.9% 15.0% 16.1% (42.1%) 12.1% 54.6% 52.2% 39.8% 12.1% 10.8% 19.1%
Book value (BVPS) (a) 144.3 165.2 192.0 219.4 256.2 293.7 290.3 295.6 319.2 361.9 435.9 533.7 643.9 775.2
Net dividend 7.00 6.00 6.00 6.50 7.50 8.50 2.35 8.75 11.55 16.22 21.11 30.00 33.00 39.00
STOCKMARKET RATIOS Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
P / E (P/ EPS restated) 13.5x 21.3x 20.7x 19.8x 18.4x 18.5x 22.4x 22.6x 19.0x 18.4x 17.4x 26.8x 24.2x 20.3x
P / E relative to MSCI India 67% 87% 90% 81% 75% 75% 101% 64% 73% 66% 59% 107% 111% 107%
P / CF 9.9x 15.8x 17.2x 13.8x 13.8x 12.2x 11.0x 12.4x 12.2x 13.8x 14.8x 20.2x 18.6x 15.9x
FCF yield 3.5% 2.9% 1.5% 2.1% 3.6% 3.4% (0.3%) 8.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0% 4.4%
P / BVPS 2.85x 3.41x 3.00x 2.82x 2.57x 2.61x 1.86x 2.06x 2.49x 3.23x 3.54x 5.00x 4.15x 3.44x
Net yield 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5%
Payout 23.0% 22.7% 21.6% 20.9% 20.9% 20.4% 9.8% 32.4% 27.7% 25.6% 23.8% 30.2% 29.9% 29.7%
EV / Sales 0.89x NS 1.29x 1.20x 1.18x 1.27x 0.97x 1.09x 1.19x 1.25x 1.49x 2.42x 1.97x 1.74x
EV / Restated EBITDA 7.6x NS 10.6x 10.0x 8.0x 8.9x 6.9x 7.0x 9.8x 10.2x 11.6x 17.2x 15.6x 12.7x
EV / Restated EBITA 9.5x NS 13.8x 13.5x 10.3x 12.2x 10.9x 10.7x 15.2x 14.6x 15.9x 22.7x 20.2x 16.2x
EV / NOPAT 11.1x (16.7x) 18.9x 18.5x 14.8x 17.0x 37.5x 26.0x 19.3x 18.1x 20.1x 29.7x 26.3x 21.0x
EV / OpFCF 21.2x NS 24.4x 31.4x 12.7x 19.7x 78.6x 6.6x 16.2x 15.8x 16.2x 22.3x 21.0x 18.2x
EV / Capital employed (incl. gross goodw ill) 4.5x 5.4x 4.3x 4.1x 4.5x 2.5x 2.9x 2.8x 4.1x 8.5x 12.5x 10.5x 8.5x
ENTERPRISE VALUE (INRm ) 380,124 -461,044 558,354 563,040 560,285 672,030 435,375 484,831 686,043 1,063,846 1,473,438 2,789,159 2,707,813 2,617,530
Market cap 493,465 677,794 693,679 744,011 781,369 913,848 643,623 728,325 948,930 1,398,032 1,850,198 3,213,369 3,213,369 3,213,369
+ Adjusted net debt (4,697) (8,325) (22,659) (14,947) (36,475) (43,944) (32,732) (35,597) (48,096) (90,042) (100,814) (148,264) (229,610) (319,893)
+ Other liabilities and commitments 5,154 23,576 22,808 12,998 21,221 22,286 23,865 32,754 27,757 31,802 0 0 0 0
+ Revalued minority interests
- Revalued investments 113,799 1,154,089 135,474 179,022 205,830 220,160 199,381 240,651 242,549 275,946 275,946 275,946 275,946 275,946
P & L HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Sales 427,986 406,776 431,588 469,216 475,774 528,482 448,655 445,744 577,869 849,603 990,033 1,153,435 1,375,358 1,500,394
Restated EBITDA (b) 50,263 46,033 52,464 56,556 70,434 75,301 63,506 68,866 69,974 104,424 127,389 161,758 173,854 205,349
Depreciation (10,382) (10,980) (12,047) (14,721) (16,254) (20,030) (23,631) (23,624) (24,984) (31,545) (34,747) (39,051) (39,975) (43,580)
Restated EBITA (b) 39,881 35,053 40,418 41,836 54,181 55,271 39,875 45,242 44,990 72,879 92,642 122,707 133,879 161,769
Reported operating profit (loss) 39,881 35,053 40,418 41,836 54,181 55,271 39,875 45,242 44,990 72,879 92,642 122,707 133,879 161,769
Net financial income (charges) 2,759 5,162 5,191 9,749 7,635 14,836 14,146 8,016 18,276 22,724 41,913 33,541 38,661 43,661
Affiliates
Other 528 3,357 60 2,012 4,336 2,905 (28,647) (30,845) (1,787) (14,295) (471) 0 0 0
Tax (6,176) (9,339) (12,230) (14,708) (19,920) (20,922) (17,977) (13,183) (12,781) (15,821) (28,017) (36,541) (39,857) (47,454)
Minorities
Net attributable profit reported 36,993 34,233 33,439 38,889 46,232 52,088 7,397 9,229 48,698 65,486 106,065 119,707 132,683 157,976
Net attributable profit restated (c) 36,597 31,715 33,394 37,380 42,980 49,910 28,882 32,363 50,038 76,208 106,419 119,707 132,683 157,976
CASH FLOW HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
EBITDA (reported) 50,263 46,033 52,464 56,556 70,434 75,301 63,506 68,866 69,974 104,424 127,389 161,758 173,854 205,349
EBITDA adjustm ent (b) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 2,918 2,905 2,980 2,764 1,865 2,377 5,231 0 0 0
Change in WCR (8,857) (1,694) (9,713) (19,131) 3,616 (9,206) (15,041) 35,643 3,913 3,871 8,681 11,586 14,801 3,453
Operating cash flow 41,406 44,339 42,751 37,425 76,968 68,999 51,444 107,272 75,752 110,673 141,301 173,344 188,656 208,802
Capex (23,469) (21,232) (19,893) (19,517) (32,874) (34,930) (45,908) (33,855) (33,490) (43,542) (50,291) (48,298) (60,000) (65,000)
Operating free cash flow (OpFCF) 17,937 23,107 22,858 17,908 44,094 34,069 5,537 73,418 42,262 67,130 91,010 125,045 128,656 143,802
Net financial items + tax paid (462) (3,180) (12,304) (2,621) (16,308) (2,748) (7,529) (12,723) 5,942 (5,200) (7,510) (3,000) (1,196) (3,794)
Free cash flow 17,475 19,928 10,554 15,287 27,786 31,322 (1,992) 60,694 48,204 61,931 83,499 122,045 127,460 140,009
Net financial investments & acquisitions (18,399) (7,510) (18,042) (21,328) (35,022) (14,475) (26,641) (125,846) (28,960) (34,247) (20,761) (52,484) (30,000) (30,000)
Other 19,852 (1,021) 24,324 (5,210) 34,845 10,992 37,495 47,965 (30,025) 12,079 43,514 0 0 0
Capital increase (decrease) 1,839 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 83
Dividends paid (8,896) (9,581) (8,654) (8,667) (9,390) (10,834) (12,132) (2,936) (10,891) (14,359)
Increase (decrease) in net financial debt (11,871) (1,842) (8,181) 19,919 (18,219) (17,005) 3,269 20,123 21,637 (25,487) (106,252) (69,561) (97,460) (110,009)
Cash flow , group share 49,801 42,853 40,160 53,935 57,043 75,458 58,956 58,906 77,781 101,602 125,110 158,758 172,658 201,555
BALANCE SHEET HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Net operating assets 90,555 100,807 108,653 113,449 130,070 144,969 169,093 181,325 201,667 197,608 197,608 259,339 309,364 360,784
WCR (6,786) (11,961) (4,762) 17,187 6,044 4,270 7,727 (16,390) 44,418 60,402 (24,197) (35,783) (50,584) (54,037)
Restated capital em ployed, incl. gross goodw ill 83,769 88,846 103,890 130,636 136,114 149,240 176,820 164,935 246,085 258,010 173,411 223,556 258,780 306,747
Shareholders' funds, group share 173,224 198,769 231,108 264,101 304,874 349,937 346,291 353,212 381,981 433,567 522,764 642,471 775,154 933,130
Minorities 0 0 0 0
Provisions/ Other liabilities 21,946 24,199 19,306 21,734 18,466 23,184 32,115 33,549 35,823 39,685 40,908 25,678 25,678 25,678
Net financial debt (cash) 11,225 9,382 1,201 21,120 2,900 (14,104) (10,835) 9,287 30,925 5,438 (100,814) (170,375) (267,835) (377,844)
FINANCIAL RATIOS (%) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Sales (% change) (0.7%) (5.0%) 6.1% 8.7% 1.4% 11.1% (15.1%) (0.6%) 29.6% 47.0% 16.5% 16.5% 19.2% 9.1%
Organic sales grow th
Restated EBITA (% change) (11.6%) (12.1%) 15.3% 3.5% 29.5% 2.0% (27.9%) 13.5% (0.6%) 62.0% 27.1% 32.5% 9.1% 20.8%
Restated attributable net profit (% change) 2.2% (13.3%) 5.3% 11.9% 15.0% 16.1% (42.1%) 12.1% 54.6% 52.3% 39.6% 12.5% 10.8% 19.1%
Personnel costs / Sales 5.5% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 6.7% 6.2% 7.2% 7.3% 5.8% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Restated EBITDA margin 11.7% 11.3% 12.2% 12.1% 14.8% 14.2% 14.2% 15.4% 12.1% 12.3% 12.9% 14.0% 12.6% 13.7%
Restated EBITA margin 9.3% 8.6% 9.4% 8.9% 11.4% 10.5% 8.9% 10.1% 7.8% 8.6% 9.4% 10.6% 9.7% 10.8%
Tax rate 14.3% 21.4% 26.8% 27.4% 30.1% 28.7% 70.8% 58.8% 20.8% 19.5% 20.9% 23.4% 23.1% 23.1%
Net margin 8.6% 7.8% 7.7% 8.0% 9.0% 9.4% 6.4% 7.3% 8.7% 9.0% 10.7% 10.4% 9.6% 10.5%
Capex / Sales 5.5% 5.2% 4.6% 4.2% 6.9% 6.6% 10.2% 7.6% 5.8% 5.1% 5.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3%
OpFCF / Sales 4.2% 5.7% 5.3% 3.8% 9.3% 6.4% 1.2% 16.5% 7.3% 7.9% 9.2% 10.8% 9.4% 9.6%
WCR / Sales (1.6%) (2.9%) (1.1%) 3.7% 1.3% 0.8% 1.7% (3.7%) 7.7% 7.1% (2.4%) (3.1%) (3.7%) (3.6%)
Capital employed (excl. gdw ./intangibles) / Sales 17.2% 18.0% 18.6% 21.6% 21.2% 20.1% 27.5% 24.5% 31.7% 23.6% 11.7% 14.4% 14.6% 16.6%
ROE 21.1% 16.0% 14.4% 14.2% 14.1% 14.3% 8.3% 9.2% 13.1% 17.6% 20.4% 18.6% 17.1% 16.9%
Gearing (3%) (4%) (10%) (6%) (12%) (13%) (9%) (10%) (13%) (21%) (19%) (23%) (30%) (34%)
EBITDA / Financial charges 34.6x 54.9x NS NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
Adjusted financial debt / EBITDA NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
ROCE, excl. gdw ./intangibles 46.4% 37.6% 36.9% 29.9% 37.6% 37.0% 9.4% 17.0% 19.5% 29.3% 63.3% 56.6% 51.2% 49.9%
ROCE, incl. gross goodw ill 40.8% 31.0% 28.5% 23.2% 27.8% 26.4% 6.6% 11.3% 14.5% 22.8% 42.3% 42.1% 39.8% 40.6%
WACC 14.3% 13.4% 12.9% 12.4% 11.9% 12.2% 11.5% 10.0% 9.7% 10.6% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%
Latest Model update: 10 Feb. 25
(a) Intangibles: INR57,604.30m, or INR48 per share. (b) adjusted for capital gains/losses, exceptional restructuring charges, capitalized R&D; EBITA also adjusted for impairments and am. of intangibles from M&A
(c) after EBITA adjustments and financial result/tax adjustments, (*) In listing currency, w ith div. reinvested

[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.

Price at 21 Feb. 25 / 12m Target Price
INR12,323 / INR17,900 +45% MARUTI SUZUKI (Outperform)
Refinitiv / Bloomberg: MRTI.NS / MSIL IN Analyst: Kumar Rakesh (+91) 22 6196 4350 OEMs | Automotive - India
Com pany Highlights INRm / EURm
20,000.0
Enterprise value 2,663,857 / 29,384 18,000.0 Target Price
Market capitalisation 3,874,435 / 42,738 14,000.0
Free float 1,697,002 / 18,719
10,000.0
3m average volume 4,975 / 55
Perform ance (*) 1m 3m 12m
Absolute 4% 13% 8% 6,000.0

Rel. Sector NC NC NC
Rel. MSCI India 6% 18% 5%
12m Hi/Lo (INR) : 13,496 -9% / 10,737 +15%
CAGR 2002/2024 2024/2026
EPS restated 23% 18% 1,647.9
CFPS 16% 22% Price 22.7*CFPS Relative to MS CI Ind ia ( INR)
Price (yearly avg from Mar. 14 to Mar. 24) 1,452.3 2,718.0 3,811.0 4,709.0 7,565.3 7,662.6 6,419.4 6,467.0 7,239.3 8,394.7 10,064.9 12,323.5 12,323.5 12,323.5
PER SHARE DATA (INR) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
No of shares year end, basic, (m) 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 306.431 314.395 314.395 314.395
Avg no of shares, diluted, excl. treasury stocks (m) 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 302.080 306.431 314.395 314.395 314.395
EPS reported, Gaap 87.40 122.86 177.58 239.32 255.62 249.04 187.06 140.02 124.68 266.46 431.07 452.62 566.45 634.15
EPS company definition 87.40 122.86 177.58 239.32 255.62 249.04 187.06 140.02 124.68 266.46 431.07 452.62 566.45 634.15
EPS restated, fully diluted 91.18 126.83 177.58 243.23 267.24 244.01 187.06 140.02 124.68 266.46 431.07 452.62 566.45 634.15
% change 15.2% 39.1% 40.0% 37.0% 9.9% (8.7%) (23.3%) (25.1%) (11.0%) 113.7% 61.8% 5.0% 25.1% 12.0%
Book value (BVPS) (a) 694.5 841.6 989.3 1197.4 1382.3 1527.5 1603.4 1700.4 1790.5 1998.9 2740.6 3016.6 3433.0 3897.2
Net dividend 12.00 25.00 35.00 75.00 80.00 80.00 60.00 45.00 60.00 90.00 128.25 150.00 170.00 190.00
STOCKMARKET RATIOS Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
P / E (P/ EPS restated) 15.9x 21.4x 21.5x 19.4x 28.3x 31.4x 34.3x 46.2x 58.1x 31.5x 23.3x 27.2x 21.8x 19.4x
P / E relative to MSCI India 79% 87% 93% 79% 116% 127% 154% 131% 223% 112% 79% 108% 100% 102%
P / CF 10.4x 14.7x 13.9x 13.9x 26.2x 29.1x 32.2x 43.6x 46.5x 28.5x 23.9x 23.3x 17.9x 15.8x
FCF yield 3.4% 3.8% 4.8% 6.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.0% 3.3% (0.7%) 1.2% 2.7% 2.7% 3.3% 4.0%
P / BVPS 2.09x 3.23x 3.85x 3.93x 5.47x 5.02x 4.00x 3.80x 4.04x 4.20x 3.67x 4.09x 3.59x 3.16x
Net yield 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%
Payout 13.2% 19.7% 19.7% 30.8% 29.9% 32.8% 32.1% 32.1% 48.1% 33.8% 29.8% 33.1% 30.0% 30.0%
EV / Sales 0.75x 1.11x 1.29x 1.27x 1.98x 1.89x 1.61x 1.65x 1.51x 1.31x 1.34x 1.74x 1.53x 1.31x
EV / Restated EBITDA 6.4x 8.2x 8.3x 8.4x 13.0x 14.9x 16.7x 21.9x 23.4x 14.0x 11.6x 14.5x 12.0x 9.9x
EV / Restated EBITA 10.8x 12.9x 12.2x 11.2x 16.8x 20.7x 32.2x 51.3x 45.7x 18.9x 14.2x 17.5x 14.5x 12.2x
EV / NOPAT 14.4x 16.9x 17.0x 15.2x 23.6x 29.0x 40.3x 62.6x 55.6x 23.8x 18.3x 24.1x 18.7x 15.7x
EV / OpFCF 14.6x 13.1x 12.1x 9.6x 14.7x 33.3x 86.6x 15.5x NS 30.2x 16.2x 21.8x 20.0x 15.6x
EV / Capital employed (incl. gross goodw ill) 3.0x 5.3x 8.2x 11.2x 24.1x 16.7x 9.6x 18.5x 17.6x 14.1x 12.4x 11.1x 7.6x 5.5x
ENTERPRISE VALUE (INRm ) 326,657 551,591 741,385 865,556 1,577,305 1,617,758 1,216,384 1,157,180 1,332,072 1,544,532 1,893,919 2,663,857 2,643,184 2,540,211
Market cap 438,697 821,062 1,151,234 1,422,498 2,285,329 2,314,732 1,939,169 1,953,558 2,186,835 2,535,873 3,084,205 3,874,435 3,874,435 3,874,435
+ Adjusted net debt (102,734) (150,862) (209,985) (288,368) (359,250) (372,071) (365,316) (456,594) (468,544) (498,302) (699,275) (790,168) (870,841) (1,043,814)
+ Other liabilities and commitments 12,643 4,973 5,932 9,130 11,189 11,884 12,780 11,263 8,613 10,038 12,066 82,668 142,668 212,668
+ Revalued minority interests
- Revalued investments 21,949 123,582 205,796 277,704 359,963 336,787 370,249 351,047 394,832 503,077 503,077 503,077 503,077 503,077
P & L HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Sales 437,007 498,740 574,851 680,116 795,827 858,203 756,106 703,325 882,956 1,175,229 1,409,326 1,532,340 1,723,534 1,939,533
Restated EBITDA (b) 50,959 67,559 88,872 102,998 121,585 108,473 73,026 52,874 57,012 110,077 163,601 183,709 221,042 255,348
Depreciation (20,844) (24,703) (28,230) (26,030) (27,579) (30,189) (35,257) (30,315) (27,865) (28,233) (30,223) (31,616) (38,566) (46,346)
Restated EBITA (b) 30,115 42,856 60,642 76,968 94,006 78,284 37,769 22,559 29,147 81,844 133,378 152,093 182,476 209,002
Reported operating profit (loss) 30,115 42,856 60,642 76,968 94,006 78,284 37,769 22,559 29,147 81,844 133,378 152,093 182,476 209,002
Net financial income (charges) 6,471 7,326 13,795 22,586 19,538 25,076 32,879 29,035 16,676 19,747 37,026 43,588 47,611 48,588
Affiliates
Other (1,144) (1,200) 0 (1,180) (3,510) 1,520 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tax (9,041) (11,870) (20,794) (26,080) (32,816) (29,650) (14,142) (9,297) (8,160) (21,099) (38,310) (53,380) (52,000) (58,215)
Minorities
Net attributable profit reported 26,401 37,112 53,643 72,294 77,218 75,230 56,506 42,297 37,663 80,492 132,094 142,301 178,088 199,375
Net attributable profit restated (c) 27,545 38,312 53,643 73,474 80,728 73,710 56,506 42,297 37,663 80,492 132,094 142,301 178,088 199,375
CASH FLOW HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
EBITDA (reported) 50,959 67,559 88,872 102,998 121,585 108,473 73,026 52,874 57,012 110,077 163,601 183,709 221,042 255,348
EBITDA adjustm ent (b) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other items (1,165) (1,402) 0 0 (3,783) 1,998 1,041 2,269 767 726 849 1,016 0 0
Change in WCR 7,561 8,356 (2,358) 23,063 28,058 (13,196) (25,659) 43,352 (28,098) 3,787 22,777 17,004 21,179 27,402
Operating cash flow 57,355 74,513 86,514 126,061 145,860 97,275 48,408 98,495 29,681 114,590 187,227 201,729 242,221 282,750
Capex (34,984) (32,468) (25,108) (36,276) (38,918) (48,701) (34,359) (23,699) (34,587) (63,461) (70,077) (79,763) (110,000) (120,000)
Operating free cash flow (OpFCF) 22,371 42,045 61,406 89,785 106,942 48,574 14,049 74,796 (4,906) 51,129 117,150 121,966 132,221 162,750
Net financial items + tax paid (7,444) (10,447) (5,940) (797) (30,596) (30,832) (13,835) (10,310) (10,797) (21,961) (35,388) (18,381) (4,389) (9,628)
Free cash flow 14,927 31,598 55,466 88,988 76,346 17,742 214 64,486 (15,703) 29,168 81,762 103,585 127,832 153,122
Net financial investments & acquisitions (16,493) (14,671) (59,239) (81,689) (45,046) 10,289 27,487 (50,363) 29,074 (19,914) (38,832) (55,630) (60,000) (70,000)
Other 379 (5,483) 12,747 2,072 (8,301) (2,461) (1,604) 34,282 (633) (25,142) (18,287) 0 0 0
Capital increase (decrease) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,828) (4,241) (9,090) (12,677) (27,268) (29,134) (29,134) (18,125) (13,594) (18,125) (27,187) (39,301) (47,159) (53,447)
Increase (decrease) in net financial debt 4,015 (7,203) 116 3,306 4,269 3,564 3,037 (30,280) 856 34,013 2,544 (8,654) (20,673) (29,675)
Cash flow , group share 42,350 55,710 82,932 102,201 87,206 79,639 60,232 44,833 46,982 88,842 129,062 166,345 216,653 245,721
BALANCE SHEET HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Net operating assets 134,118 138,291 135,169 145,415 154,849 170,079 171,186 164,468 166,467 207,019 250,292 354,069 485,503 629,157
WCR (26,939) (34,877) (45,234) (67,796) (89,446) (73,125) (44,790) (101,757) (90,967) (97,192) (97,681) (114,685) (135,863) (163,265)
Restated capital em ployed, incl. gross goodw ill 107,179 103,414 89,935 77,619 65,403 96,954 126,396 62,711 75,500 109,827 152,611 239,384 349,640 465,893
Shareholders' funds, group share 209,781 254,219 298,842 361,711 417,573 461,415 484,370 513,668 540,860 603,820 839,820 948,398 1,079,326 1,225,254
Minorities 0 0 0 0
Provisions/ Other liabilities 12,643 4,973 5,932 9,130 11,189 11,884 12,780 11,263 8,613 10,038 12,066 82,668 142,668 212,668
Net financial debt (cash) 14,919 7,716 7,832 11,138 15,407 18,971 22,008 (8,272) (7,416) 26,597 29,141 20,487 (186) (29,861)
FINANCIAL RATIOS (%) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24 Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Sales (% change) 0.3% 14.1% 15.3% 18.3% 17.0% 7.8% (11.9%) (7.0%) 25.5% 33.1% 19.9% 8.7% 12.5% 12.5%
Organic sales grow th
Restated EBITA (% change) 27.2% 42.3% 41.5% 26.9% 22.1% (16.7%) (51.8%) (40.3%) 29.2% 180.8% 63.0% 14.0% 20.0% 14.5%
Restated attributable net profit (% change) 15.2% 39.1% 40.0% 37.0% 9.9% (8.7%) (23.3%) (25.1%) (11.0%) 113.7% 64.1% 7.7% 25.1% 12.0%
Personnel costs / Sales 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7% 4.5% 4.8% 4.6% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%
Restated EBITDA margin 11.7% 13.5% 15.5% 15.1% 15.3% 12.6% 9.7% 7.5% 6.5% 9.4% 11.6% 12.0% 12.8% 13.2%
Restated EBITA margin 6.9% 8.6% 10.5% 11.3% 11.8% 9.1% 5.0% 3.2% 3.3% 7.0% 9.5% 9.9% 10.6% 10.8%
Tax rate 24.7% 23.7% 27.9% 26.2% 28.9% 28.7% 20.0% 18.0% 17.8% 20.8% 22.5% 27.3% 22.6% 22.6%
Net margin 6.3% 7.7% 9.3% 10.8% 10.1% 8.6% 7.5% 6.0% 4.3% 6.8% 9.4% 9.3% 10.3% 10.3%
Capex / Sales 8.0% 6.5% 4.4% 5.3% 4.9% 5.7% 4.5% 3.4% 3.9% 5.4% 5.0% 5.2% 6.4% 6.2%
OpFCF / Sales 5.1% 8.4% 10.7% 13.2% 13.4% 5.7% 1.9% 10.6% (0.6%) 4.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.7% 8.4%
WCR / Sales (6.2%) (7.0%) (7.9%) (10.0%) (11.2%) (8.5%) (5.9%) (14.5%) (10.3%) (8.3%) (6.9%) (7.5%) (7.9%) (8.4%)
Capital employed (excl. gdw ./intangibles) / Sales 24.1% 20.1% 15.0% 10.9% 7.8% 10.8% 16.2% 8.2% 7.8% 8.8% 10.3% 15.2% 19.9% 23.7%
ROE 13.1% 15.1% 18.0% 20.3% 19.3% 16.0% 11.7% 8.2% 7.0% 13.3% 15.7% 15.0% 16.5% 16.3%
Gearing (49%) (59%) (70%) (80%) (86%) (81%) (75%) (89%) (87%) (83%) (83%) (83%) (81%) (85%)
EBITDA / Financial charges 29.0x 32.8x NS NS NS NS 54.9x 52.5x 45.3x 59.0x 84.7x 95.8x NS NS
Adjusted financial debt / EBITDA NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
ROCE, excl. gdw ./intangibles 21.5% 32.6% 50.5% 76.8% 107.3% 60.4% 24.7% 32.2% 34.7% 62.7% 70.9% 47.6% 41.2% 35.2%
ROCE, incl. gross goodw ill 21.2% 31.6% 48.6% 73.2% 102.2% 57.6% 23.9% 29.5% 31.7% 59.0% 67.7% 46.2% 40.4% 34.7%
WACC 12.4% 11.9% 11.3% 10.8% 10.3% 10.9% 10.2% 8.9% 8.8% 9.6% 10.0% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7%
Latest Model update: 29 Jan. 25
(a) Intangibles: INR6,815.00m, or INR22 per share. (b) adjusted for capital gains/losses, exceptional restructuring charges, capitalized R&D; EBITA also adjusted for impairments and am. of intangibles from M&A
(c) after EBITA adjustments and financial result/tax adjustments, (*) In listing currency, w ith div. reinvested

[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.

Price at 21 Feb. 25 / 12m Target Price
INR673.2 / INR935 +39% TATA MOTORS (Outperform)
Refinitiv / Bloomberg: TAMO.NS / TTMT IN Analyst: Kumar Rakesh (+91) 22 6196 4350 OEMs | Automotive - India
Com pany Highlights INRm / EURm
1,200.0
Enterprise value 2,673,189 / 29,487
Target Price
Market capitalisation 2,577,457 / 28,431
Free float 1,363,475 / 15,040 600.0

3m average volume 10,491 / 116

Perform ance (*) 1m 3m 12m
Absolute (12%) (13%) (27%)
200.0
Rel. Sector NC NC NC
Rel. MSCI India (10%) (9%) (29%)
12m Hi/Lo (INR) : 1,162 -42% / 673.2 +0% 100.0
CAGR 2012/2023 2023/2026
EPS restated 5% 15% 47.9
CFPS 6% 38% Price 5.4*CFPS Relative to MS CI Ind ia ( INR)
Price (yearly avg from Mar. 14 to Mar. 24) 330.3 487.6 392.1 477.6 415.4 232.6 155.7 164.0 389.2 423.9 675.8 673.2 673.2 673.2
PER SHARE DATA (INR) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24e Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
No of shares year end, basic, (m) 3 218.680 3 218.680 3 395.756 3 395.900 3 395.900 3 395.900 3 496.712 3 639.561 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665
Avg no of shares, diluted, excl. treasury stocks (m) 3 218.680 3 218.680 3 395.707 3 395.707 3 395.707 3 395.707 3 612.186 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665 3 828.665
EPS reported, Gaap 43.47 43.45 34.10 21.73 26.47 (84.66) (33.42) (35.13) (29.88) 6.31 82.01 62.40 70.99 86.31
EPS company definition 43.47 43.45 34.10 21.73 26.47 (84.66) (33.42) (35.13) (29.88) 6.31 82.01 62.40 70.99 86.31
EPS restated, fully diluted 46.53 44.03 44.31 29.96 18.56 (1.41) (25.47) 0.81 (28.24) 2.15 57.07 62.35 70.99 86.31
% change 41.4% (5.4%) 0.6% (32.4%) (38.0%) NS NS NS NS NS NS 9.3% 13.8% 21.6%
Book value (BVPS) (a) 203.8 174.8 232.5 171.0 281.0 177.2 180.4 151.8 116.4 118.4 207.8 260.8 320.7 394.1
Net dividend 2.14 2.12 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 8.00 9.50 11.00
STOCKMARKET RATIOS Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24e Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
P / E (P/ EPS restated) 7.1x 11.1x 8.8x 15.9x 22.4x NC NC NS NC NS 11.8x 10.8x 9.5x 7.8x
P / E relative to MSCI India 35% 45% 38% 65% 92% NC NC NS NC NS 40% 43% 43% 41%
P / CF 8.3x 8.3x 6.7x 10.8x 8.1x 7.4x 16.7x 8.4x NC 45.3x 10.8x 3.6x 4.9x 4.1x
FCF yield (9.4%) (10.4%) (7.7%) (7.4%) (16.8%) (40.0%) (38.5%) (18.7%) (16.9%) (9.7%) 0.1% 16.7% 9.5% 13.9%
P / BVPS 1.62x 2.79x 1.69x 2.79x 1.48x 1.31x 0.86x 1.08x 3.34x 3.58x 3.25x 2.58x 2.10x 1.71x
Net yield 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6%
Payout 4.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% NC 0.0% 10.5% 12.8% 13.4% 12.7%
EV / Sales 0.49x 0.71x 0.64x 0.82x 0.64x 0.48x 0.51x 0.53x 0.82x 0.68x 0.70x 0.60x 0.54x 0.43x
EV / Restated EBITDA 3.0x 4.4x 4.2x 6.0x 5.0x 4.8x 5.5x 3.7x 6.7x 7.4x 5.2x 4.5x 3.9x 2.8x
EV / Restated EBITA 4.8x 7.2x 8.1x 14.2x 15.4x 56.6x NS 18.9x NS 33.9x 9.5x 7.6x 6.1x 4.5x
EV / NOPAT 6.3x 11.1x 9.7x 19.5x 19.6x 72.0x NS 24.0x NS 43.1x 12.5x 9.9x 8.2x 6.0x
EV / OpFCF 8.4x 24.0x 20.7x 135.8x NS NS NS 12.1x NS 11.5x 7.5x 5.3x 7.2x 4.5x
EV / Capital employed (incl. gross goodw ill) 1.5x 2.3x 1.6x 2.2x 1.5x 1.4x 1.1x 1.2x 1.9x 2.0x 2.1x 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x
ENTERPRISE VALUE (INRm ) 1,139,349 1,862,559 1,742,308 2,210,238 1,888,815 1,448,222 1,325,141 1,322,278 2,290,616 2,361,890 3,074,696 2,673,189 2,464,798 2,142,193
Market cap 1,063,116 1,569,278 1,331,596 1,622,044 1,410,759 789,786 544,593 596,724 1,490,085 1,622,892 2,587,531 2,577,457 2,577,457 2,577,457
+ Adjusted net debt 156,704 229,995 122,677 165,600 203,150 379,853 468,215 409,127 609,753 509,714 231,331 (39,585) (226,517) (536,247)
+ Other liabilities and commitments 199,707 328,305 460,226 622,314 554,356 601,347 591,681 612,531 403,076 437,025 463,575 343,058 321,599 308,724
+ Revalued minority interests 4,207 4,333 4,328 4,532 5,251 5,231 8,136 15,735 42,711 72,777 72,777 72,777 72,777 72,777
- Revalued investments 284,385 269,353 176,520 204,251 284,701 327,994 287,483 311,839 255,009 280,518 280,518 280,518 280,518 280,518
P & L HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24e Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Sales 2,306,771 2,607,343 2,730,456 2,696,925 2,946,192 3,024,003 2,610,680 2,497,948 2,784,536 3,459,670 4,379,278 4,428,339 4,555,136 5,012,997
Restated EBITDA (b) 374,186 421,138 417,763 369,124 374,480 303,725 239,143 357,819 340,227 318,295 596,101 589,477 640,202 755,456
Depreciation (136,434) (162,638) (201,796) (213,186) (251,855) (278,152) (256,139) (287,733) (340,452) (248,604) (272,701) (235,729) (236,643) (278,966)
Restated EBITA (b) 237,752 258,500 215,967 155,938 122,625 25,573 (16,996) 70,086 (225) 69,692 323,400 353,907 403,559 476,490
Reported operating profit (loss) 237,752 258,500 215,967 155,938 122,625 25,573 (16,996) 70,086 (225) 69,692 323,400 353,747 403,559 476,490
Net financial income (charges) (39,209) (39,628) (40,037) (34,835) (37,929) (41,611) (60,089) (37,218) (63,514) (55,022) (41,076) (35,765) (34,767) (27,532)
Affiliates (537) 134 5,775 14,930 22,783 2,095 (10,000) (3,790) (741) 3,364 6,998 (631) (494) (3,002)
Other (9,854) (1,847) (34,672) (27,955) 26,854 (282,673) (28,714) (137,610) (6,296) 15,905 95,499 160 0 0
Tax (47,648) (76,429) (30,251) (33,266) (43,419) 9,375 (3,953) (25,419) (42,313) (7,041) (66,754) (75,435) (92,900) (111,060)
Minorities (595) (868) (989) (1,022) (1,025) (224) (956) (563) (1,327) (2,756) (4,077) (3,181) (3,616) (4,428)
Net attributable profit reported 139,910 139,863 115,793 73,790 89,889 (287,466) (120,709) (134,514) (114,415) 24,143 313,991 238,896 271,782 330,467
Net attributable profit restated (c) 149,764 141,710 150,465 101,745 63,035 (4,793) (91,994) 3,096 (108,119) 8,238 218,492 238,736 271,782 330,467
CASH FLOW HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24e Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
EBITDA (reported) 374,186 421,138 417,763 369,124 374,480 303,725 239,143 357,819 340,227 318,295 596,101 589,477 640,202 755,456
EBITDA adjustm ent (b) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other items (11,159) 9,349 (31,501) (80,723) (41,357) (16,101) (5,618) (45,843) (70,123) 98,646 54,964 209,993 (9,714) (1,415)
Change in WCR 41,568 (36,718) 13,132 32,542 (64,337) (72,123) 50,654 (925) (104,737) (31,271) 73,252 74,830 42,351 47,431
Operating cash flow 404,595 393,769 399,393 320,944 268,786 215,502 284,179 311,052 165,368 385,670 724,316 874,300 672,839 801,472
Capex (269,751) (316,138) (315,030) (304,669) (350,789) (353,035) (297,020) (202,054) (151,684) (180,957) (314,136) (365,907) (328,923) (321,176)
Operating free cash flow (OpFCF) 134,844 77,631 84,363 16,275 (82,003) (137,533) (12,842) 108,998 13,683 204,713 410,180 508,393 343,916 480,296
Net financial items + tax paid (234,799) (240,915) (187,440) (136,516) (155,457) (180,328) (199,760) (223,495) (273,029) (369,177) (407,213) (64,571) (92,900) (111,060)
Free cash flow (99,955) (163,284) (103,076) (120,241) (237,460) (317,861) (212,601) (114,497) (259,345) (164,463) 2,967 443,821 251,016 369,236
Net financial investments & acquisitions (1,346) 742 237 (73) (2,688) (669) 2,101 12,192 5,014 6,818 2,755 (16,824) 0 0
Other 109,872 31,004 124,354 (31,115) 352,535 114,670 124,788 113,162 74,519 215,672 0 0 0 0
Capital increase (decrease) 1 0 0 0 0 0 38,888 26,025 186 (3,758) 38,942 0 0 0
Dividends paid (7,220) (7,204) (1,081) (1,212) (960) (947) (568) (303) (999) (1,409) (10,591) (35,836) (42,556) (49,275)
Increase (decrease) in net financial debt (1,352) 138,741 (20,434) 152,641 (111,427) 204,808 47,393 (36,579) 180,626 (52,860) (34,073) (391,161) (208,461) (319,961)
Cash flow , group share 127,721 188,419 197,524 150,375 174,824 107,296 33,765 74,870 (2,924) 35,791 239,386 725,236 530,530 634,479
BALANCE SHEET HIGHLIGHTS (INRm ) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24e Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Net operating assets 1,023,542 1,171,196 1,331,507 1,296,429 1,614,474 1,431,183 1,564,541 1,531,809 1,424,205 1,385,532 1,760,205 1,907,207 1,999,487 2,041,696
WCR (271,151) (354,379) (231,092) (302,047) (347,174) (369,722) (348,633) (437,523) (199,644) (190,333) (263,585) (338,415) (380,766) (428,197)
Restated capital em ployed, incl. gross goodw ill 752,391 816,817 1,100,416 994,383 1,267,300 1,061,461 1,215,908 1,094,286 1,224,562 1,195,199 1,496,620 1,568,792 1,618,721 1,613,500
Shareholders' funds, group share 656,035 562,619 789,524 580,619 954,279 601,796 630,785 552,467 445,612 453,218 795,560 998,619 1,227,846 1,509,038
Minorities 4,207 4,333 4,328 4,532 5,251 5,231 8,136 15,735 42,711 72,777 76,854 80,035 83,650 88,078
Provisions/ Other liabilities 193,862 197,803 182,103 159,862 250,277 235,426 270,076 280,107 252,806 264,141 267,212 523,674 548,727 574,844
Net financial debt (cash) 182,673 321,414 300,980 453,621 342,194 547,002 594,395 557,816 738,442 685,581 651,508 260,347 51,887 (268,074)
FINANCIAL RATIOS (%) Mar. 14 Mar. 15 Mar. 16 Mar. 17 Mar. 18 Mar. 19 Mar. 20 Mar. 21 Mar. 22 Mar. 23 Mar. 24e Mar. 25e Mar. 26e Mar. 27e
Sales (% change) 22.9% 13.0% 4.7% (1.2%) 9.2% 2.6% (13.7%) (4.3%) 11.5% 24.2% 26.6% 1.1% 2.9% 10.1%
Organic sales grow th
Restated EBITA (% change) 39.9% 8.7% (16.5%) (27.8%) (21.4%) (79.1%) NC NC NC NC 364.0% 9.4% 14.0% 18.1%
Restated attributable net profit (% change) 42.7% (5.4%) 6.2% (32.4%) (38.0%) NC NC NC NC NC NC 9.3% 13.8% 21.6%
Personnel costs / Sales 9.3% 9.8% 10.6% 10.5% 10.3% 11.0% 11.7% 11.1% 11.1% 9.7% 9.7% 11.0% 11.3% 10.7%
Restated EBITDA margin 16.2% 16.2% 15.3% 13.7% 12.7% 10.0% 9.2% 14.3% 12.2% 9.2% 13.6% 13.3% 14.1% 15.1%
Restated EBITA margin 10.3% 9.9% 7.9% 5.8% 4.2% 0.8% (0.7%) 2.8% (0.0%) 2.0% 7.4% 8.0% 8.9% 9.5%
Tax rate 24.0% 34.9% 17.2% 27.5% 51.3% NC NC 77.3% NC 48.0% 23.6% 23.7% 25.2% 24.7%
Net margin 6.5% 5.5% 5.5% 3.8% 2.2% (0.2%) (3.5%) 0.1% (3.8%) 0.3% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0% 6.7%
Capex / Sales 11.7% 12.1% 11.5% 11.3% 11.9% 11.7% 11.4% 8.1% 5.4% 5.2% 7.2% 8.3% 7.2% 6.4%
OpFCF / Sales 5.8% 3.0% 3.1% 0.6% (2.8%) (4.5%) (0.5%) 4.4% 0.5% 5.9% 9.4% 11.5% 7.6% 9.6%
WCR / Sales (11.8%) (13.6%) (8.5%) (11.2%) (11.8%) (12.2%) (13.4%) (17.5%) (7.2%) (5.5%) (6.0%) (7.6%) (8.4%) (8.5%)
Capital employed (excl. gdw ./intangibles) / Sales 10.3% 10.1% 17.7% 14.7% 18.8% 14.6% 19.8% 17.7% 23.2% 18.2% 21.2% 22.6% 23.1% 20.9%
ROE 22.8% 25.2% 19.1% 17.5% 6.6% (0.8%) (14.6%) 0.6% (24.3%) 1.8% 27.5% 23.9% 22.1% 21.9%
Gearing 24% 41% 15% 28% 21% 63% 73% 72% 125% 97% 27% (4%) (17%) (34%)
EBITDA / Financial charges 7.9x 8.7x 8.5x 8.7x 8.0x 5.3x 3.3x 4.4x 3.6x 3.1x 6.0x 8.7x 13.6x 18.0x
Adjusted financial debt / EBITDA 0.4x 0.5x 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 1.3x 2.0x 1.1x 1.8x 1.6x 0.4x NC NC NC
ROCE, excl. gdw ./intangibles 76.2% 64.2% 37.0% 28.6% 17.4% 4.5% (2.6%) 12.4% (0.0%) 8.7% 26.6% 26.9% 28.7% 34.3%
ROCE, incl. gross goodw ill 24.0% 20.6% 16.3% 11.4% 7.6% 1.9% (1.1%) 5.0% (0.0%) 4.6% 16.5% 17.2% 18.7% 22.2%
WACC 15.7% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6% 13.3% 14.0% 13.7% 12.3% 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9%
Latest Model update: 30 Jan. 25
(a) Intangibles: INR566,919.20m, or INR148 per share. (b) adjusted for capital gains/losses, exceptional restructuring charges, capitalized R&D; EBITA also adjusted for impairments and am. of intangibles from M&A
(c) after EBITA adjustments and financial result/tax adjustments, (*) In listing currency, w ith div. reinvested

[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.

Price at 21 Feb. 25 / 12m Target Price
USD337.8 / USD157 -54% TESLA (Underperform)
Refinitiv / Bloomberg: TSLA.O / TSLA US Analyst: Stuart Pearson, CFA (+44) 203 430 8545 OEMs | Automotive - USA
Com pany Highlights USDm / EURm
500.0
Enterprise value 1,046,903 / 1,001,342
350.0
Market capitalisation 1,075,893 / 1,029,070
250.0
Free float 710,089 / 679,186
3m average volume 31,179 / 29,822 150.0 Target Price

Perform ance (*) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute (20%) (1%) 73%
Rel. Sector (1%) (24%) 8% 50.0
Rel. MSCI USA (20%) (2%) 42%
12m Hi/Lo (USD) : 479.9 -30% / 142.1 +138% 25.0
CAGR 2009/2024 2024/2030
EPS restated NC 13% 11.3
CFPS NC 15% Price 53.1*CFPS Relative to MS CI US A ( USD)
Price (yearly avg from Dec. 17 to Dec. 24) 21.0 21.2 18.2 96.7 260.0 263.1 217.5 230.6 337.8 337.8 337.8 337.8 337.8 337.8
PER SHARE DATA (USD) Dec. 17 Dec. 18 Dec. 19 Dec. 20 Dec. 21 Dec. 22 Dec. 23 Dec. 24p Dec. 25e Dec. 26e Dec. 27e Dec. 28e Dec. 29e Dec. 30e
No of shares year end, basic, (m) 2 486.370 2 557.875 2 626.500 2 850.000 2 958.000 3 200.000 3 185.000 3 185.000 3 185.000 3 185.000 3 185.000 3 185.000 3 185.000 3 185.000
Avg no of shares, diluted, excl. treasury stocks (m) 2 486.370 2 557.875 2 662.500 3 249.000 3 387.000 3 475.000 3 485.000 3 496.000 3 496.000 3 496.000 3 496.000 3 496.000 3 496.000 3 496.000
EPS reported, Gaap (0.79) (0.38) (0.33) 0.26 1.87 4.01 4.72 2.23 2.20 2.32 2.13 2.69 3.88 4.86
EPS company definition (0.79) (0.33) (0.28) 0.26 1.86 4.07 4.72 2.45 2.20 2.32 2.13 2.69 3.88 4.86
EPS restated, fully diluted (0.79) (0.34) (0.28) 0.22 1.62 3.66 4.30 2.16 2.01 2.11 1.94 2.45 3.53 4.42
% change (152.8%) 57.0% 17.8% NS NS 125.6% 17.6% (49.8%) (7.1%) 5.1% (8.0%) 26.1% 44.4% 25.2%
Book value (BVPS) (a) 1.7 1.9 2.5 7.8 10.2 14.0 19.7 22.5 25.4 28.4 31.2 34.5 39.1 44.7
Net dividend 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
STOCKMARKET RATIOS Dec. 17 Dec. 18 Dec. 19 Dec. 20 Dec. 21 Dec. 22 Dec. 23 Dec. 24p Dec. 25e Dec. 26e Dec. 27e Dec. 28e Dec. 29e Dec. 30e
P / E (P/ EPS restated) NC NC NC NS NS 71.9x 50.5x 106.8x NS NS NS 138.1x 95.6x 76.4x
P / E relative to MSCI USA NC NC NC NS NS 350% 197% 410% NS NS NS 843%
P / CF 55.0x 36.5x 20.5x 68.0x 82.1x 49.2x 34.7x 58.8x 79.8x 69.3x 63.8x 55.1x 44.3x 37.8x
FCF yield (6.8%) (1.4%) 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2%
P / BVPS 12.30x 10.99x 7.24x 12.40x 25.48x 18.83x 11.06x 10.24x 13.31x 11.92x 10.84x 9.78x 8.64x 7.56x
Net yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Payout 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EV / Sales 5.08x 2.94x 2.28x 8.37x 14.10x 9.88x 6.89x 7.23x 9.51x 8.58x 7.77x 6.95x 6.25x 5.82x
EV / Restated EBITDA NS 38.3x 25.1x 61.1x 80.7x 45.8x 49.2x 54.2x 78.3x 66.6x 61.7x 51.3x 39.0x 32.1x
EV / Restated EBITA NS NS NS NS NS 58.2x 75.0x 92.2x NS NS NS NS 72.8x 56.5x
EV / NOPAT NS NS NS NS NS 63.4x 89.3x NS NS NS NS NS 93.3x 72.5x
EV / OpFCF NS NS 51.5x 87.4x 130.8x 90.3x 119.0x NS NS NS NS NS 91.7x 63.9x
EV / Capital employed (incl. gross goodw ill) 3.3x 3.5x 3.0x 12.8x 28.9x 23.0x 13.0x 12.6x 16.3x 15.0x 14.0x 13.1x 12.2x 11.4x
ENTERPRISE VALUE (USDm ) 59,746 63,195 56,023 263,859 759,028 805,072 666,611 706,160 1,046,903 1,042,805 1,038,479 1,032,427 1,023,124 1,009,874
Market cap 52,100 54,109 47,895 270,567 769,075 823,481 690,266 734,509 1,075,893 1,075,893 1,075,893 1,075,893 1,075,893 1,075,893
+ Adjusted net debt 6,692 8,093 6,905 (7,883) (11,218) (19,380) (24,407) (28,893) (29,380) (33,324) (37,496) (43,394) (52,697) (65,947)
+ Other liabilities and commitments
+ Revalued minority interests 1,395 1,390 1,492 1,454 1,394 1,194 975 767 613 459 305 151 151 151
- Revalued investments 442 398 269 279 223 223 223 223 223 223 223 223 223 223
P & L HIGHLIGHTS (USDm ) Dec. 17 Dec. 18 Dec. 19 Dec. 20 Dec. 21 Dec. 22 Dec. 23 Dec. 24p Dec. 25e Dec. 26e Dec. 27e Dec. 28e Dec. 29e Dec. 30e
Sales 11,759 21,461 24,578 31,536 53,823 81,462 96,773 97,690 110,107 121,528 133,655 148,640 163,808 173,627
Restated EBITDA (b) 4 1,648 2,234 4,316 9,407 17,579 13,558 13,027 13,371 15,665 16,842 20,132 26,243 31,460
Depreciation (1,636) (1,901) (2,154) (2,322) (2,911) (3,747) (4,667) (5,368) (5,861) (7,707) (9,722) (10,826) (12,188) (13,596)
Restated EBITA (b) (1,632) (253) 80 1,994 6,496 13,832 8,891 7,659 7,509 7,958 7,120 9,306 14,055 17,864
Reported operating profit (loss) (1,632) (388) (69) 1,994 6,523 13,656 8,891 7,076 7,509 7,958 7,120 9,306 14,055 17,864
Net financial income (charges) (577) (617) (596) (840) (180) 63 1,082 1,698 1,291 1,300 1,379 1,463 1,581 1,767
Affiliates
Other
Tax (32) (58) (110) (292) (699) (1,132) 5,001 (1,837) (1,936) (2,037) (1,870) (2,369) (3,440) (4,319)
Minorities 279 86 (87) (141) (125) (31) 23 154 154 154 154 154 154 154
Net attributable profit reported (1,961) (976) (862) 721 5,519 12,556 14,997 7,091 7,018 7,375 6,783 8,554 12,350 15,466
Net attributable profit restated (c) (1,961) (868) (743) 721 5,495 12,717 14,997 7,552 7,018 7,375 6,783 8,554 12,350 15,466
CASH FLOW HIGHLIGHTS (USDm ) Dec. 17 Dec. 18 Dec. 19 Dec. 20 Dec. 21 Dec. 22 Dec. 23 Dec. 24p Dec. 25e Dec. 26e Dec. 27e Dec. 28e Dec. 29e Dec. 30e
EBITDA (reported) 4 1,513 2,085 4,316 9,434 17,403 13,558 12,444 13,371 15,665 16,842 20,132 26,243 31,460
EBITDA adjustm ent (b) 0 135 149 0 (27) 176 0 583 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 1,192 249 640 1,762 2,390 2,408 9,540 827 2,069 2,110 2,153 2,198 2,245 2,295
Change in WCR (496) 58 (349) 184 518 (3,908) (8,597) 1,208 (2,966) (941) (1,635) (2,148) (2,583) (2,326)
Operating cash flow 699 1,955 2,525 6,262 12,315 16,079 14,501 15,062 12,473 16,834 17,360 20,182 25,905 31,428
Capex (4,081) (2,320) (1,437) (3,242) (6,514) (7,163) (8,899) (11,339) (11,341) (12,153) (12,697) (13,378) (14,743) (15,626)
Operating free cash flow (OpFCF) (3,382) (365) 1,088 3,020 5,801 8,916 5,602 3,723 1,132 4,681 4,663 6,804 11,162 15,802
Net financial items + tax paid (248) (416) (509) (559) (827) (1,355) (1,245) (139) (645) (736) (491) (906) (1,859) (2,552)
Free cash flow (3,630) (781) 579 2,461 4,974 7,561 4,357 3,584 487 3,944 4,172 5,898 9,303 13,250
Net financial investments & acquisitions (115) (18) (45) (13) 0 (9) (64) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other (317) (708) (199) (130) (2,292) 277 (71) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital increase (decrease) 947 296 1,111 12,686 707 541 700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (262) (227) (311) (208) (161) (157) (144) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase (decrease) in net financial debt 3,377 1,439 (1,135) (14,796) (3,228) (8,213) (4,778) (3,584) (487) (3,944) (4,172) (5,898) (9,303) (13,250)
Cash flow , group share 947 1,481 2,365 4,616 10,726 18,587 21,853 13,715 14,794 17,039 18,504 21,423 26,629 31,203
BALANCE SHEET HIGHLIGHTS (USDm ) Dec. 17 Dec. 18 Dec. 19 Dec. 20 Dec. 21 Dec. 22 Dec. 23 Dec. 24p Dec. 25e Dec. 26e Dec. 27e Dec. 28e Dec. 29e Dec. 30e
Net operating assets 20,913 20,042 20,736 23,895 31,633 37,044 45,554 51,525 57,005 61,450 64,425 66,976 69,531 71,561
WCR (3,001) (2,003) (2,092) (3,247) (5,325) (2,098) 5,595 4,387 7,353 8,295 9,930 12,078 14,662 16,988
Restated capital em ployed, incl. gross goodw ill 17,912 18,039 18,644 20,648 26,308 34,946 51,149 55,912 64,358 69,745 74,355 79,055 84,192 88,549
Shareholders' funds, group share 4,237 4,923 6,618 22,225 30,189 44,704 62,634 71,724 80,811 90,296 99,232 109,984 124,578 142,339
Minorities 1,395 1,390 1,492 1,454 1,394 1,194 975 767 613 459 305 151 (3) (157)
Provisions/ Other liabilities 6,030 4,030 3,898 4,614 5,598 8,134 11,404 10,869 10,869 10,869 10,869 10,869 10,869 10,869
Net financial debt (cash) 6,847 8,286 7,151 (7,645) (10,873) (19,086) (23,864) (27,448) (27,935) (31,879) (36,051) (41,949) (51,252) (64,502)
FINANCIAL RATIOS (%) Dec. 17 Dec. 18 Dec. 19 Dec. 20 Dec. 21 Dec. 22 Dec. 23 Dec. 24p Dec. 25e Dec. 26e Dec. 27e Dec. 28e Dec. 29e Dec. 30e
Sales (% change) 68.0% 82.5% 14.5% 28.3% 70.7% 51.4% 18.8% 0.9% 12.7% 10.4% 10.0% 11.2% 10.2% 6.0%
Organic sales grow th
Restated EBITA (% change) (144.6%) 84.5% NC NC 225.8% 112.9% (35.7%) (13.9%) (2.0%) 6.0% (10.5%) 30.7% 51.0% 27.1%
Restated attributable net profit (% change) (190.6%) 55.8% 14.4% NC NC 131.4% 17.9% (49.6%) (7.1%) 5.1% (8.0%) 26.1% 44.4% 25.2%
Personnel costs / Sales NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
Restated EBITDA margin 0.0% 7.7% 9.1% 13.7% 17.5% 21.6% 14.0% 13.3% 12.1% 12.9% 12.6% 13.5% 16.0% 18.1%
Restated EBITA margin (13.9%) (1.2%) 0.3% 6.3% 12.1% 17.0% 9.2% 7.8% 6.8% 6.5% 5.3% 6.3% 8.6% 10.3%
Tax rate NC NC NC 25.3% 11.0% 8.3% NC 20.9% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
Net margin (19.1%) (4.4%) (2.7%) 2.7% 10.4% 15.6% 15.5% 7.6% 6.2% 5.9% 5.0% 5.7% 7.4% 8.8%
Capex / Sales 34.7% 10.8% 5.8% 10.3% 12.1% 8.8% 9.2% 11.6% 10.3% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
OpFCF / Sales (28.8%) (1.7%) 4.4% 9.6% 10.8% 10.9% 5.8% 3.8% 1.0% 3.9% 3.5% 4.6% 6.8% 9.1%
WCR / Sales (25.5%) (9.3%) (8.5%) (10.3%) (9.9%) (2.6%) 5.8% 4.5% 6.7% 6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 9.0% 9.8%
Capital employed (excl. gdw ./intangibles) / Sales 148.7% 82.4% 73.7% 63.8% 48.0% 42.4% 52.4% 56.8% 58.1% 57.0% 55.3% 52.9% 51.1% 50.8%
ROE (46.3%) (17.6%) (11.2%) 3.2% 18.2% 28.4% 23.9% 10.5% 8.7% 8.2% 6.8% 7.8% 9.9% 10.9%
Gearing 119% 128% 85% (33%) (36%) (42%) (38%) (40%) (36%) (37%) (38%) (39%) (42%) (46%)
EBITDA / Financial charges 0.0x 2.6x 3.5x 6.0x 29.9x NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
Adjusted financial debt / EBITDA 1,708.4x 4.9x 3.1x NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
ROCE, excl. gdw ./intangibles (7.5%) (1.1%) 0.4% 7.4% 22.4% 36.7% 14.7% 10.9% 9.2% 9.0% 7.5% 9.2% 13.1% 15.8%
ROCE, incl. gross goodw ill (7.3%) (1.1%) 0.3% 7.2% 22.0% 36.3% 14.6% 10.8% 9.1% 8.9% 7.5% 9.2% 13.0% 15.7%
WACC 9.3% 8.8% 9.1% 9.5% 8.5% 9.9% 9.1% 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%
Latest Model update: 30 Jan. 25
(a) Intangibles: USD431.00m, or USD0 per share. (b) adjusted for capital gains/losses, exceptional restructuring charges, capitalized R&D; EBITA also adjusted for impairments and am. of intangibles from M&A
(c) after EBITA adjustments and financial result/tax adjustments, (*) In listing currency, w ith div. reinvested

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[email protected] Vedant Karnatak 05/13/25 12:28:48 PM Ernst & Young.