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Origin and Routes. The Black Death

The article examines the origins and dissemination routes of the Black Death in the Nordic countries and the British Isles, comparing these patterns with trade routes of the time. It discusses various theories regarding the plague's spread, including the role of the black rat and its fleas, and the impact of climate on the disease's transmission. The research highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of the epidemiology of the Black Death, suggesting that multiple factors contributed to its rapid spread across Europe.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
61 views18 pages

Origin and Routes. The Black Death

The article examines the origins and dissemination routes of the Black Death in the Nordic countries and the British Isles, comparing these patterns with trade routes of the time. It discusses various theories regarding the plague's spread, including the role of the black rat and its fleas, and the impact of climate on the disease's transmission. The research highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of the epidemiology of the Black Death, suggesting that multiple factors contributed to its rapid spread across Europe.

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dig oooooon
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Scandinavian Journal of History

ISSN: 0346-8755 (Print) 1502-7716 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/shis20

The Black Death


Its origin and routes of dissemination

Kristina Lenz & Nils Hybel

To cite this article: Kristina Lenz & Nils Hybel (2016) The Black Death, Scandinavian Journal of
History, 41:1, 54-70, DOI: 10.1080/03468755.2015.1110533

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/03468755.2015.1110533

Published online: 13 Nov 2015.

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https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=shis20
Scandinavian Journal of History, 2016
Vol. 41, No. 1, 54–70, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03468755.2015.1110533

Kristina Lenz
Nils Hybel

THE BLACK DEATH

Its origin and routes of dissemination

The purpose of the present research is to examine various theories concerning the origin of
the Black Death, to record its routes of dissemination in the Nordic countries and across
the British Isles, and to compare the pattern of that dissemination with trade routes
carrying grain throughout northern Europe in the period up to and including 1350.

Keywords the Black Death, epidemiology, northern Europe, the British Isles,
the Nordic countries

For the major part of the 20th century the Black Death1 was afforded little attention by
Danish researchers of medieval history. Since the 1930s, and in common with many of
their eminent British, French, and German colleagues, they have if not neglected then
certainly played down the significance of the Black Death. The first Danish account of
the Black Death and ensuing epidemics was not published until 1991. Erik Ulsig’s
article ‘Pest og befolkningsnedgang i Danmark i det 14. århundrede’ [The Plague and
its Diminishing Effect on the Population in the 14th Century] was seminal for Danish
research; at the same time it relied heavily on a historiographic tradition dating back to
the second half of the 19th century, when the Black Death was considered to have had
a revolutionary impact not only on demography but also on the social and economic
development of society.2 Ulsig demonstrated that outbreaks of the plague in Denmark
correlated chronologically with a well-documented pattern known to have been
prevalent in northern Europe and he advanced the hypothesis that the plague was
bubonic in origin and spread along the trade routes of Europe, carried like metastases
by the black rat and its parasitic fleas.3 The theory that it was primarily the trade in
grain that gave rise to an explosive spread of the plague over vast areas was suggested
the following year by the Norwegian scholar Ole J. Benedictow, a specialist in the
history of epidemiology. In Plague in the Late Medieval Nordic Countries, Benedictow’s
principal argument in support of this theory was that the main carrier of the disease,
the rat flea, was able to survive on grain.4 How he reached this conclusion is not
entirely clear, partly because at the time of publication the history of the grain trade in
northern Europe shortly before the Black Death was obscure, although much sub-
stantive evidence has since seen the light of day.5
© 2015 the Historical Associations of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
THE BLACK DEATH 55

The epidemiology, symptomatology, and mortality of the Black


Death
In 1894 microbiologists identified Yersinia pestis as the cause of plague as we know it in
modern times. Historic pandemics, like the Black Death, were also attributed to this
bacterium.6 As the Black Death is significantly different from the ‘modern’ bubonic
plague of the 20th century,7 both epidemiologically and symptomatically, this inter-
pretation has since been challenged by doctors and historians.8 Furthermore, many
zoologists have doubted that the rat and its parasitic fleas, responsible for the spread of
bubonic plague in the present day, could have survived in northern Europe at the time
of the Black Death.9
However, since the start of the new millennium, research teams have provided
ample examples of incontrovertible evidence in the shape of Yersinia pestis DNA and
antigen from victims of the Black Death that leave little doubt that the plague ravaging
the Middle Ages was a Yersinia pestis infection.10 However, before concluding that the
Black Death and the bubonic plague of the modern age were spread by the same agent,
a number of epidemiological questions need to be addressed.
Yersinia pestis is primarily a bacterium found in rodents and transmitted by fleas.11
Early 20th-century research into contemporary outbreaks of bubonic plague identified
the black rat, Rattus rattus, as the main agent of the disease and also applied this
retrospectively to the Black Death.12 However, there is no evidence to suggest that
rats were involved in the spread of the plague in the Middle Ages. No contemporary
historical accounts exist of dead rats being found ahead of an outbreak of the plague, as
witnessed in Asia during the third pandemic.13 Until the middle of the 19th century no
evidence had been found to suggest that the black rat lived in Europe in the Middle
Ages. This may be due to the fact that the tiny bones of rats seem to have attracted
little attention from archaeologists; only recently have they begun to search system-
atically for the distribution of animal remains in archaeological digs, an exercise that
has produced plenty of evidence of the existence of the black rat in northern Europe
during the Middle Ages.14
Many scholars have doubted that a subtropical animal like the black rat could survive
and multiply north of the Alps in the mid-14th century, a period when evidence suggests
that Europe was entering ‘the minor Ice Age’.15 However, it is significant that these
somewhat uncertain signs of climate change have not been supported by accompanying
reports of famine, as documented in Europe in the High Middle Ages.16 Apart from
severe frost during the winters of 1305–1306, 1309–1310, 1334–1335, and 1338–1339,
studies of the climate in northern Europe in the 14th century have shown that the period
leading up to the Black Death was characterized by extraordinarily mild weather devoid
of any frost or snow. The great famine in the years 1315–1317, caused by heavy rainfall,
is not relevant in the present context.17 Research into the climate of the latter part of the
14th century, when Europe experienced cyclical attacks of the plague every 10 years,
shows a similar pattern. Every new attack was preceded by a period of relatively mild
weather. Research also demonstrates that the epidemics were often followed by a period
of extremely cold weather, from which it is reasonable to conclude that those rats not
brought down by the plague would have perished in the cold.18
At this stage one may well ask why climate is seen as such an important factor
in this context. Although the rat roamed at large in the warm Mediterranean
56 SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF HISTORY

countryside, it sought the comfort of heated dwellings in its conquest of the north.
Through time the rat became more and more closely associated with human
dwellings and especially with their granaries, from which they rarely strayed
more than 200 metres.19 To insist that the black rat was unable to exist in the
cold climes of the north is to underestimate its ability to adapt, particularly as we
know that it can thrive in both the Atlantic climate of the Hebrides and on the sub-
Antarctic island of Macquarie.20
Like the rat, the existence of its parasitic flea in northern Europe has been doubted
by many scholars of medieval history. According to the Indian Plague Research
Commission, not all fleas were capable of transmitting the disease to human beings.
The rat flea, Xenopsylla cheopis, admittedly had the most favourable conditions to do so,
but research demonstrates that it was extremely sensitive to changes in temperature and
humidity.21 Habitually the flea lives in the warm fur of the rat and will only reluctantly
abandon its cosy abode if its host succumbs to disease. Fleas are far more likely to
migrate to the people visiting a plague-ridden house than venture out into the cold. In
this way, even in the depth of winter, fleas would be transported in the garments of
visitors to neighbouring houses, where they could generate a new epidemic among the
colony of rats in their new dwelling completely independently of climatic conditions.22
Perhaps the rat and its parasitic flea were not the only agents in terms of the
dissemination of the disease at the time of the Black Death. It is possible that the
human flea Pulex irritans played a role, as suggested by the French physician and
historian Jean-Noël Biraben.23 Certainly, research over the past 10 years has demon-
strated how several species of human fleas are capable of transmitting Yersinia pestis
between mammals within a few days of being infected themselves. This research has
challenged the conclusions of previous studies that a blocked flea, i.e. a rat flea, as the
only known species with two stomachs, enables the Yersinia pestis bacteria to multiply
faster than they would if passed through a single digestive system.24 Despite persistent
efforts, research into various outbreaks of bubonic plague in modern times has not
succeeded in identifying the rat flea, while overwhelming numbers of human fleas have
been present in dwellings ridden by the plague. Furthermore, American scientists have
recently managed to prove the ability of the human flea to act as a vector for the
Yersinia pestis bacterium.25
As Yersinia pestis is a bacterium prevalent among rodents, we must ask whether
other animals could have been responsible for transmitting the plague in the Middle
Ages. Just because the bubonic plague was a disease borne by rats in the early 20th
century, it does not mean that other ‘domestic animals’ should be ruled out from
spreading the disease at the time of the Black Death. In the United States alone, 23
cases have been recorded of cats transmitting the plague bacterium to humans.26 In
Africa, the common shrew has been shown to host the Yersinia pestis bacterium.27
However, as we have no evidence of these animals playing a part in the transmission of
the plague in the Middle Ages, this theory can only be speculative.
An issue that has caused many scholars to question whether the Black Death and
the bubonic plague of modern times share the same agent is the mortality rate.
Nothing exact is known about the overall mortality rate caused by the plague during
the Middle Ages, but several analyses of the existing sources suggest that as many as
75–80% of the population perished in the summer of 1348.28 One of the first accounts
of the demographic consequences of the Black Death seen in a historical context
THE BLACK DEATH 57

concludes that two-thirds of the clergy in the West Riding and around half of the
clergy in the East Riding perished. Subsequent British research confirms a mortality
rate of around 50%.29 In his research into the English inquisitiones post mortem, the
American demographer J.C. Russell established the somewhat less dramatic mortality
level of 40% for the period between 1348 and 1377, during which England was
ravaged by four outbreaks of plague. It is generally accepted that population figures
were more or less restored between the outbreaks in 1348–1350, 1360–1361, 1369,
and 1375.30 In his detailed study of the demographic development of the English parish
of Halesowen, Zvi Razi estimates mortality to be around 43% in 1348–1349, 14% in
1361–1362, 17% in 1369, and 12% in 1375.31 These findings parallel a note made in
1382 by Raymundus Chalmelli de Vinario, a personal physician to Pope Clement VII,
about the mortality of the disease, which indicates that over time the population of the
Middle Ages developed an immunity to the plague.32
The third pandemic in Asia did not quite equal these levels, even in India, where
most of the outbreaks of plague occurred in the 20th century. In some major cities,
like Mumbai, mortality was as low as 3%, although in rural districts like Punjab it
reached 36%.33 It is important, however, to distinguish between case fatality, i.e. the
proportion of deaths out of the number of patients actually infected by disease, and the
overall mortality of the population at large. In terms of case fatality, today’s figures are
40–60% in outbreaks of bubonic plague, while outbreaks of pneumonic plague see
figures soar to almost 100% if the victims are not treated with antibiotics.34 In terms
of the Black Death, we have only scanty information relating to case mortality;
however, contemporary accounts suggest that some people infected by the plague
did, in fact, survive the disease. Today very few people have been infected by the
bubonic plague more than once; however, it is a well-known fact that patients who
have been treated with antibiotics do not develop the same degree of life-long
immunity as those who have managed to survive without any treatment.35
The main controversy, however, in terms of epidemiology has to do with the
dissemination of the disease. Based on accounts of the Black Death spreading in just
four years to most parts of Europe, critics of the rat–flea model have argued that this
pestilence must have been extremely contagious, particularly in comparison with the
bubonic plague of the 20th century, which is known to spread over land by no more
than 15 kilometres per year from its epicentre.36
The incubation period for bubonic plague is three to five days, whereas contem-
porary accounts of the plague in the Middle Ages attest that up to 21 days could pass
from the time the first member of a household was struck by the disease until the next
victim was infected. According to the rat–flea model promoted by Simond, it takes
exactly 21 days from the point when the Yersinia pestis bacterium has entered a
dwelling until infection has wiped out its resident colony of rats, the invading fleas
have transmitted the infection and the disease has erupted among the inhabitants of the
dwelling.37
The dissemination of the disease within a local community is easy to explain.
Visitors to plague-infected dwellings were often bitten by the infectious rat fleas
abounding there or else carried rat fleas back home in their garments, resulting in
an epizooty breaking out in another colony of rats.
It is more difficult to explain how the disease could spread over distances of
hundreds of kilometres. Given the fact, already noted, that the rat only rarely moves
58 SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF HISTORY

further than 200 metres from human dwellings or granaries, the spread of the disease
could only have been caused by passive transport. The predilection of Rattus rattus for
seafaring vessels is well known, but a period at sea lasting more than 14 days would
have completely eradicated a colony of rats already infected by Yersinia pestis.
The explanation for this seems to hinge on the rat flea. Since grain is part of the
rat’s staple diet, its fleas have probably developed an ability to survive by hibernating
in grain even where only tiny residues are to be found, for example in a ship’s hold.38
This would explain how the rat flea can be passively transported over great distances
provided that the climate is not too hot or dry causing desiccation and death. Humidity
during transportation enables infected fleas to survive for many weeks and would
explain how the plague bacterium could spread over vast distances as long as it was
carried by sea.39

The spread of the Black Death in the Nordic countries and the
British Isles
In order to account for the spread of the plague, this study traces the advance of the
Black Death in both the Nordic countries and the British Isles. The Nordic sources are
sparse but a certain pattern does seem to emerge when they are studied alongside their
British counterparts. Only a year after the epidemic had ravaged southern Europe it
struck Norway on two fronts: in Oslo, by then the largest town in the southern part of
the country,40 and Bergen on the west coast.41 From these two points the infection
spread inland along main roads and pilgrim routes, both south of the Oslo fjord and all
the way up north to the Archdiocese of Nidaros, where the archbishop himself
succumbed in 1349.42
From Norway the plague must have been transmitted to Denmark, where, in the
autumn of 1349, it erupted in the port of Halmstad in Halland on the east coast of the
Kattegat.43 Closer scrutiny of the sources reveals that in the same year the infection
also reached Ribe, then an important port on the west coast.44 The following year the
Black Death had the entire country in its grip according to contemporary chronicles,
annals, and anniversary of deaths registers.45
With the exception of Gotland, where the plague reached Visby, none of the
contemporary sources refers to the Black Death in Sweden.46 Iceland avoided the
infection the first time round but was hit by the plague in the following century. No
sources shed light on whether Finland was hit by the second pandemic.
History paints quite a different picture in terms of British sources. By all accounts,
the Black Death spread from France in the summer of 1348 to the port of Weymouth
on the southern coast of England,47 from whence it travelled very rapidly to other
ports in both directions along the coast. It progressed up through the Bristol Channel
to Bristol before advancing along the Severn to Gloucester.48 From here it spread
inland towards the east along the main routes to London, but also north and north-
west, eventually invading Wales.49 Simultaneously, as proved by research, the infec-
tion spread along the Thames from east to west to reach London towards the end of
1348.50
In the same year the Black Death established itself in ports along the coast of the
North Sea. The eastern parts of England were thus attacked on two fronts. From Lynn
at the mouth of the Great Ouse the plague penetrated Cambridgeshire and the Diocese
THE BLACK DEATH 59

of Ely.51 From Grimsby and Hull, both situated at the entrance to the Humber, the
epidemic advanced inland along the rivers of Trent and Ouse until it eventually
reached the cathedral city of York in May 1349.52 From York the progress of the
plague towards the north is less well documented; however, according to English
chronicles it is believed to have reached the southern part of Scotland towards the end
of 1349, while the rest of that country was invaded the following year.53
According to an account written by the Irish monk John Clyn, the Black Death
arrived in Dalkey and Drogheda, two small towns situated in the English colony
known as the Pale on the east coast of Ireland, in August 1348.54 The explanation for
such an early outbreak in this location must be that the infection was carried in
provisions brought by sea direct from one of the ports along the south coast of England
already hit by the epidemic. Figure 1 traces the routes of dissemination of the Black
Death in the Nordic countries and in the British Isles.

FIGURE 1 The spread of the Black Death in northern Europe, 1346–1351.55


60 SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF HISTORY

The trade routes of northern Europe


Research into the trade routes of northern Europe has shown that even the very early
Middle Ages witnessed well-developed trade relations enjoying an extensive traffic
network of vessels, partly along the coastline but also along the major rivers and
canals, at that time constituting an extremely important part of the transport system of
Europe. It is well documented that trade in northern Europe grew exponentially in the
12th century: the rapid growth of towns and markets, especially from the latter part of
the century onwards, and advancements in maritime technology are just some of the
signs of this commercial expansion. The most significant development in this context is
that trade in heavy goods like timber, cloth, artefacts in limestone and lead, and not
least grain over long distances rapidly gained impetus from the middle of the 12th
century. Trade of this kind influenced patterns of consumption, technology, and
specialization in agriculture; however, sadly, it also created routes of dissemination
for epidemic diseases centuries before the Black Death devastated the population of
Europe.56 In order to substantiate a hypothesis that the Black Death was a bubonic
plague spread by rats and their parasitic fleas and aided by the transport of grain, we
need to examine the trade in grain in northern Europe in the period preceding the
Black Death. It should be emphasized at this stage that grain, like many other
commodities in the Middle Ages, was transported by sea as mixed cargo. In other
words, even vessels not regularly carrying grain would doubtless have shipped it on
previous occasions, so that residues remained in the hold. In addition, all ships would
obviously have carried victuals for the crew.
During the second half of the 13th century, the trade in grain overseas from
English ports along the coast of the North Sea was dominated primarily by the export
of wheat to Norway. However, in the first decade of the 14th century the export of
grain was in decline. In 1303 Edward I had granted privileges to foreign merchants in
the Carta Mercatoria; these included free trade and the avoidance of certain excise
duties. These privileges were revoked in 1309 and the export of grain virtually ground
to a halt.57 In contrast, the import of grain increased after 1322 when the Carta
Mercatoria was once more reinstated.58 Imported grain comprised primarily oats and
especially rye from the hinterland of the German towns on the Baltic Sea.59 The export
of grain from north-east Germany and Poland to western Europe, by now heavily
urbanized, can be traced far back in history. From very early on, towns in the Low
Countries were supplied with grain from northern France, and by the 13th century
France was the most important supplier of grain to Flanders. However, German grain
also made its way to Flanders during the first half of the 12th century. These early
supplies were derived from the areas along the Rhine and the Elbe, but during the 13th
century import from Pomerania and Prussia increased and by about 1300 grain was
imported to Flanders from all of the southern and south-eastern parts of the Baltic
region. The grain was transported either along the traditional Hanseatic route,
Lübeck–Hamburg, or ummeland, i.e. through Danish waters from the Baltic Sea to
the Kattegat, passing the Skaw en route to the North Sea or Norway.60 As early as the
second half of the 13th century, the supply of grain to the western part of Norway
(particularly Bergen) by Hanseatic merchants was significant.61 However, research has
shown that in the period leading up to the Black Death, English towns along the
Channel between Exeter and Sandwich also nurtured close trade relations with both
THE BLACK DEATH 61

France and Spain.62 Furthermore, these English ports had well-developed trade
relations with the English dominions in the west of France. The ports and towns of
Flanders had grain delivered not only from Spain but also on occasion from Italy.
Maritime traffic from the Mediterranean through the Straits of Gibraltar to Flanders
and England gained impetus in the late 13th century, and Italian merchants played a
progressive role in this development.63 This information concurs with contemporary
accounts that the plague could have reached the southern coast of England on board
ships direct from France or even Spain or Italy.
London, already a principal trade centre in the Middle Ages, was in regular
contact with the rest of Europe, particularly through its relations with Flanders and
Bruges.64 At the same time, trade routes from Europe incorporated the south-eastern
part of England, particularly the ports along the Channel. For this reason the plague
could easily have reached London very soon after ships had berthed in Weymouth;
alternatively, it could already have been introduced by vessels arriving in London
direct from the continent.
Poundage accounts that have survived since the granting of the Carta Mercatoria in
1303 testify to the fact that Lynn, Hull, Ipswich, and Boston, on the English coast of
the North Sea, were vital hubs for the trade in grain.65 Through the shipping trade
these ports were in close contact; at the same time they maintained trade relations
with the major towns and cities in their hinterland thanks to a well-developed system
of rivers. Consequently, once the plague reached one port, there was a real danger
that the infection would spread inland and contaminate large swathes of the country.
Some grain exports, however, seem to move counter to the routes of dissemina-
tion of the plague. It is true that England exported wheat to Norway, but the lists of
levies show that at the same time oats were imported from Flanders, not to mention
rye from the Baltic countries.66 It is important to note that rat fleas do not necessarily
need a full cargo of grain to travel the world. Any vessel engaged in trade could be the
transmitter of the disease, provided that there was just a fraction of grain left in the
hold. Whether on disembarkation the crew brought goods ashore or simply shook out
sacks that had contained grain, fleas carried in the cargo would quickly rouse from
their dormant state and target the nearest colony of rats only to set off a new epizooty.
The Icelandic Sagas describe the plague reaching Bergen from England by boat in
1349; this seems more than probable. A surviving register of vessels going in and out
of Hull demonstrates the extent to which England exported wheat just before the
Black Death; at the same time, other documents make it clear that as late as 1349 the
King of England allowed the export of grain to Norway.67
Source material pertaining to the Black Death in Denmark and Sweden is too
sparse for any conclusion to be made about the spread of the disease in these lands, but
there are strong indications that the plague entered Denmark via the two ports of
Halmstad and Ribe as early as 1349. It is probable that the infection was introduced by
ships either from Oslo or, more likely, by the so-called ‘ummeland voyagers’ travelling
north of the Skaw into Danish waters en route to the Baltic countries to pick up grain
for export. The disease could also have been brought into the country by Danish
merchants or by the many foreign merchants who facilitated the extensive commercial
trade between Denmark and the rest of Europe in the Middle Ages.68 Although
evidence of the import of grain into Denmark is scanty, it is likely that more grain
was imported into the country than exported. On the other hand, there is plenty of
62 SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF HISTORY

FIGURE 2 Trade routes of grain in northern Europe before 1350.70

evidence to suggest that Danish agricultural exports were dominated by animal


products and livestock.69 The trade routes of grain in northern Europe are indicated
in Figure 2.

The trade routes of grain and the routes of dissemination


If we compare Figure 2 with Figure 1, showing the spread of the bubonic plague, it is
tempting to conclude that shipments of grain in northern Europe before 1350 played a
significant part in the spread of the disease. However, as noted earlier, the infection
was not spread directly along these trade routes. Rats and fleas and thus the contagion
itself could also be spread by transport going in the opposite direction, carrying
residues of grain and grain-based provisions that would feed the carriers of the disease
on their journey. The traffic of vessels between western France and the southern parts
of England and between the Low Countries and eastern parts of England were
potential routes of contagion, as was the export of grain from eastern parts of
England to Bergen. Along these routes the spread of the infection matched directly
the trade routes of grain from France and the Low Countries to England and from
England to Norway. The dissemination of the disease from England to Denmark via
Ribe took place both along and counter to the trade route of grain. In the latter part of
the 13th century Ribe was granted permission to import grain on a number of
occasions. Merchants from that city are shown in English customs records from the
first part of the 14th century as importing grain from ports on the east coast of
England.71 The population of Norway was not infected from England alone. The
considerable export of grain from Germany to Norway was equally important for the
transmission of the disease, and with cargo going back along the coast of Halland and
through Danish waters to the Baltic Sea the plague reached Denmark from the north
along the same route that saw the populations of the Prussian towns and their
THE BLACK DEATH 63

hinterland fall victim to it. We know for certain that ships would dock at Skanør and
the Skaw and other ports as they passed through Danish waters.72
The spread of the infection from the coast further into Poland was probably caused
by commercial traffic along the inland waterways, as occurred in England and mainland
Europe. Trade in grain along the rivers of Europe was widespread: for example, we
have evidence that grain was transported from central Poland and Ukraine along the
Vistula to Torun, where it was bought up by merchants from western Europe and
transported by boat to Norway, the British Isles, and the Low Countries.
This account of the spread of the Black Death in the British Isles and the Nordic
countries, comparing the evidence with the trade routes of grain, demonstrates how it
was possible for a Yersinia pestis infection to spread very rapidly over huge distances by
means of the rat and its parasitic flea. Unlike the third pandemic in Asia, in which the
disease was carried over land, geographical and trade-related conditions in Europe
made it possible for the rat flea and thus the plague bacterium to be carried by ship
overseas and inland on board vessels sailing along the rivers and extensive canal
systems already well developed in the 14th century. As early as the 11th century,
Adam of Bremen noted that marine transport was relatively speedy. In his survey of
European shipping routes and the duration of voyages, he writes that it took two days
to reach Flanders from Ribe and one and a half days to reach England.73 We are not
suggesting that the trade in grain by sea was the only route of dissemination, but it
appears to have been the most important factor in the regions that we have researched,
not least because it gave rise to an almost explosive spread of the Black Death.
Despite the fact that an increasing quantity of clear evidence based on DNA and
protein-based studies indicates that the Black Death was caused by the Yersinia pestis
bacterium, there are still scholars who doubt this. By means of the present study, in
which we have compared the trade routes of Europe, and the transport of grain along
these routes, with the dissemination of the plague, we believe that we have demon-
strated that it was possible for the bubonic plague to spread in giant leaps across the
whole of Europe in just four years. Based on this research we believe that there can be
no doubt remaining that the Black Death was an infection caused by Yersinia pestis and
disseminated by the black rat and its parasitic flea.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes
1 This anachronistic term refers to the first outbreak of the plague in Europe (1347–
1351), the subject of this investigation.
2 Hybel, ‘Teorier om de vesteuropæiske godssystemers afvikling’.
3 Ulsig, ‘Pest og befolkningsnedgang’.
4 Benedictow, Plague in the Late Medieval Nordic Countries.
5 Hybel, ‘The Grain Trade in Northern Europe before 1350’.
6 Yersin, ‘Le peste bubonique à Hong Kong’; Hirst, The Conquest of Plague; Lenz,
‘Justinians Pest’.
64 SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF HISTORY

7 This pandemic began in Yunnan province in China in 1855 and was, according to
the World Health Organization, considered active until 1959, when worldwide
casualties dropped to 200 per year. While writing this paper, the World Health
Organization reports of an outbreak of plague allegedly similar to the Black Death.
8 Shrewsbury, A History of Bubonic Plague; Biraben, Les hommes et la peste; Carmichael,
Plague and the Poor; Cohn, The Black Death Transformed; Christensen, ‘In These
Perilous Times’.
9 Twigg, The Black Death; Scott and Duncan, Biology of Plagues.
10 Drancourt et al., ‘Detection of 400-Year-Old Yersinia pestis’; Bianucci et al., ‘A
Rapid Diagnostic Test Detects Plague in Ancient Human Remains’; Haensch et al.,
‘Distinct Clones of Yersinia pestis Caused the Black Death’.
11 Simond, ‘La propagation de la peste’; Hirst, The Conquest of Plague.
12 Yersin, ‘Le peste bubonique à Hong Kong’, 1894.
13 Davis, ‘The Scarcity of Rats and the Black Death’.
14 Teichert, ‘Beitrag zur Faunengeschichte der Hausratte’; Dahlbäck, Helgeandsholmen,
294; McCormick, ‘Communications and Plague’; Hufthammer and Walløe, ‘Rats
cannot have been Intermediate Hosts’, 1755.
15 Shrewsbury, A History of Bubonic Plague; Twigg, The Black Death; Cohn,
‘Epidemiology of the Black Death’.
16 Hybel, ‘Klima og hungersnød i middelalderen’; Hybel and Poulsen, The Danish
Resources, 59–78.
17 Britton, A Meteorological Chronology, 131–41; Titow, ‘Evidence of Weather in the
Account Rolls of the Bishopric of Winchester’; Brandon, ‘Late-Medieval Weather
in Sussex’; Lamb, Climate: Present, Past and Future, 440; Pfister, Schwarz-Zanetti,
and Wegmann, ‘Winter Severity in Europe’; Ogilvie and Farmer, ‘Documenting
the Medieval Climate’, 127; Glaser and Riemann, ‘A Thousand-Year Record of
Temperature Variations’.
18 Britton, A Meteorological Chronology, 177; Pfister, Schwarz-Zanetti, and Wegmann,
‘Winter Severity in Europe’, 101; Glaser, Klimageschichte Mitteleuropas, 77.
19 McCormick, ‘Communications and Plague’.
20 Ibid., 22.
21 ‘Reports on Plague Investigations in India’, 7; Bacot and Martin, ‘Observation on
the Mechanism of the Transmission of Plague by Fleas’.
22 Benedictow, The Black Death, 19.
23 Biraben, Les hommes et la peste, 13.
24 Bacot and Martin, ‘Observation on the Mechanism of the Transmission of Plague
by Fleas’.
25 Eisen et al., ‘Early-Phase Transmission of Yersinia pestis’; Eisen, Eisen, and Gage,
‘Studies of Vector Competency and Efficiency of North American Fleas for Yersinia
pestis’, 737–44.
26 Gage et al., ‘Cases of Cat-Associated Human Plague in the Western US’.
27 McCormick, ‘Communications and Plague’, 2.
28 Cohn, ‘Epidemiology of the Black Death’, 83.
29 Hybel, Crisis or Change, 1–2, 9–10, 73–5.
30 Russell, British Medieval Population, 262–3.
31 Razi, Life, Marriage and Death in a Medieval Parish, 114–17, 124–31.
32 Zinsser, Rats, Lice, and History, 89.
33 Cohn, ‘Epidemiology of the Black Death’.
34 Smith, ‘Plague’, 1119–25.
THE BLACK DEATH 65

35 Titball and Williamson, ‘Vaccination against Bubonic and Pneumonic Plague’,


4175–84.
36 Christakos et al., Interdisciplinary Public Health Reasoning, 223.
37 Benedictow, The Black Death, 58.
38 Ibid., 20.
39 Bacot and Martin, ‘Observation on the Mechanism of the Transmission of Plague
by Fleas’, 437.
40 Diplomatarium Norvegicum, Vol. 3, no. 298, 311, 425, and Vol. 5, no. 269;
‘Hamarkrøniken’, 117–46, 136.
41 Storm, Islandske annaler indtil 1578, xxi, xxv–xxxii; see note 4 above, 44–5.
42 Benedictow, Plague in the Late Medieval Nordic Countries, 151.
43 Hildebrand, Tunberg, and Nygren, Diplomatarium Suecanum 1348–1355, no. 4483;
Diplomatarium Danicum, 1st–3rd series, 3, 3, no. 217.
44 Kinch, Ribe Bys Historie og beskrivelse, 196–209; Benedictow, The Black Death, 162.
45 Jørgensen, Valdemar Atterdag, 89, 100; Jørgensen, Annales Danici Medii Ævi, 174,
175; Gertz, Scriptores minores historiae Danicæ medii ævi, 117; Kroman, Danmarks
Middelalderlige Annaler, 72; Ulsing, ‘Pest og befolkningsnedgang’, 22.
46 Jørgensen, Valdemar Atterdag, 99.
47 Gransden, ‘A Fourteenth-Century Chronicle’, 274; Thompson, Adae Murimuth
Continuatio Chronicarum; Fletcher, ‘The Black Death in Dorset’, 1–14; Watts,
‘The Black Death in Dorset and Hampshire’, 21–8; Gasquet, The Black Death of
1348 and 1349, 81, 82, 111.
48 Martin, Knighton’s Chronicle, 94–7; Thompson, Chronicon Galfridi le Baker de
Swynebroke, 99–100; Boucher, ‘The Black Death in Bristol’, 31–46.
49 Rees, ‘The Black Death in England and Wales’, 27–45.
50 Luard, Annales Monastici, vol. 3, 475; Brie, The Brut or The Chronicles of
England, 303; Thomas and Thornley, The Great Chronicle of London, 38;
Kingsford, Chronicles of London, 12; Gasquet, ‘A Fourteenth-Century
Chronicle’, 107, 112.
51 Aberth, ‘The Black Death in the Diocese of Ely’, 275–87.
52 Benedictow, The Black Death, 139–40.
53 Ibid., 145.
54 Gasquet, ‘A Fourteenth-Century Chronicle’, 138–9; Benedictow, The Black Death,
127.
55 Berggren, Hybel, and Landen, Cogs, Cargoes, and Commerce; Hybel and Poulsen, The
Danish Resources, 227–58, 353–80; Postan, ‘The Trade of Medieval Europe’,
168–305.
56 Hybel, ‘Sildehandel og sildefiskeri i den nordvestlige Nordsø’, 27–42.
57 Hybel, ‘The Grain Trade in Northern Europe before 1350’.
58 Ibid., 233.
59 Diplomatarium Danicum, 1st–3rd series, 2, 1, no. 50, 52.
60 Hybel, ‘The Grain Trade in Northern Europe before 1350’, 226–7.
61 Kowaleski, ‘The Grain Trade in Fourteenth-Century Exeter’, 1–52.
62 In the second half of the 13th century, Italian merchants lent money to the kings of
England. As security they were granted the prerogative of collecting duties in a
number of English ports. Italian merchants probably inspired the introduction of
the first poundage in northern Europe, Carta Mercatoria, in 1303. Hybel,
‘Sildehandel og sildefiskeri i den nordvestlige Nordsø’.
66 SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF HISTORY

63 Höhlbaum, Hansisches Urkundenbuch, vol. 3, 419–20.


64 Hybel, ‘The Grain Trade in Northern Europe before 1350’.
65 Ibid., 224.
66 Regesta Norvegica, vol. 5, no. 1158 a; Hybel, ‘The Grain Trade in Northern Europe
before 1350’, 231.
67 Grautoft, Chronik des Franciscaner Lesemeisters Detmar, vol.1, 263; Hybel and Poulsen,
The Danish Resources, 354–79.
68 Hybel, ‘Dansk eksport på det nordeuropæiske marked’, 183–97.
69 Ibid., 225–6.
70 Cf. e.g. Diplomatarium Danicum, 1st–3rd series, 2, 9, no. 447.
71 Schmeidler, Adam von Bremen, 4.1., Skolion 99.
72 Benedictow, The Black Death, xvii.
73 Hybel, ‘The Grain Trade in Northern Europe before 1350’, 223.

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Kristina Lenz Doctor of Medicine 1970. General Practitioner in Copenhagen since 1980.
Master of Arts in History from University of Copenhagen 2014. She has written articles in
Dansk Medicinhistorisk Årbog about The Plague of Justinian, the infant mortality in the
Danish West Indian Islands, and the health conditions in St Croix after the emancipation,
and also in Historisk Tidsskrift about leprosy and tuberculosis in Denmark during the late
Middle Ages. Address: Skodsborg Strandvej 275, DK- 2942 Skodsborg, Denmark. [email:
[email protected]]

Nils Hybel dr. phil., Associate Professor at the History Department, University of
Copenhagen. Hybel specializes in medieval history and economic history. He has written
numerous books, including Crisis or Change. The Concept of Crisis in the Light of Agrarian
Structural Reorganization in Late Medieval England (1989) and The Danish Resources c
1000–1550 (with Bjørn Poulsen, 2007). Address: The Saxo Institute, History Department,
University of Copenhagen, Karen Blixens Vej 4, DK-2300 Copenhagen, Denmark. [email:
[email protected]]

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