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2.1 Reading - Unit 2 - Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule - Introduction To Probability - EdX

The document discusses the concept of conditional probability, emphasizing its importance in updating beliefs based on observed evidence. It highlights that all probabilities are inherently conditional and that conditioning serves as a powerful problem-solving strategy in statistics. The reading is part of the HarvardX course 'Introduction to Probability' on edX.

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48 views2 pages

2.1 Reading - Unit 2 - Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule - Introduction To Probability - EdX

The document discusses the concept of conditional probability, emphasizing its importance in updating beliefs based on observed evidence. It highlights that all probabilities are inherently conditional and that conditioning serves as a powerful problem-solving strategy in statistics. The reading is part of the HarvardX course 'Introduction to Probability' on edX.

Uploaded by

lujobcas
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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2024/3/28 清晨5:27 2.

1 Reading | Unit 2: Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule | Introduction to Probability | edX

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Introduction to Probability
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Course / Unit 2: Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule / 2.1 Reading

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2.1 The importance of thinking conditionally
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Unit 2: Conditioning
Adapted from Blitzstein-Hwang Chapter 2.
Conditional probability is the concept that addresses the following fundamental question: how
should we update our beliefs in light of the evidence we observe? In fact, a useful perspective is
that all probabilities are conditional; whether or not it's written explicitly, there is always background
knowledge (or assumptions) built into every probability.
In addition to giving us a technique for updating our probabilities based on observed information,
conditioning is a very powerful problem-solving strategy, often making it possible to solve a
complicated problem by decomposing it into manageable pieces with case-by-case reasoning. Due
to the central importance of conditioning, we say that conditioning is the soul of statistics.

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