lOMoARcPSD|53594808

AI Unit 4 - Unit 4

Artificial Intelligence (Sathyabama Institute of Science and Technology)

Scan to open on Studocu

Studocu is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])
 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning: Acting under Uncertainty, Basic

Probability Notation, Inference Using Full Joint Distributions,
Independence, Bayes‘ Rule and Its Use, Representing Knowledge in an
Uncertain Domain, The Semantics of Bayesian Networks

Till now, we have learned knowledge representation using first-order logic and
propositional logic with certainty, which means we were sure about the predicates. With this
knowledge representation, we might write A→B, which means if A is true then B is true, but
consider a situation where we are not sure about whether A is true or not then we cannot
express this statement, this situation is called uncertainty.

So to represent uncertain knowledge, where we are not sure about the predicates, we need
uncertain reasoning or probabilistic reasoning.

Causes of uncertainty:
Following are some leading causes of uncertainty to occur in the real world.

1. Information occurred from unreliable sources.

2. Experimental Errors
3. Equipment fault
4. Temperature variation
5. Climate change.

Probabilistic reasoning:
Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge representation where we apply the concept of
probability to indicate the uncertainty in knowledge. In probabilistic reasoning, we combine
probability theory with logic to handle the uncertainty.
We use probability in probabilistic reasoning because it provides a way to handle the
uncertainty that is the result of someone's laziness and ignorance.
In the real world, there are lots of scenarios, where the certainty of something is not
confirmed, such as "It will rain today," "behavior of someone for some situations," "A match
between two teams or two players." These are probable sentences for which we can assume
that it will happen but not sure about it, so here we use probabilistic reasoning…

Need of probabilistic reasoning in AI:

 When there are unpredictable outcomes.

 When specifications or possibilities of predicates becomes too large to handle.
 When an unknown error occurs during an experiment.

In probabilistic reasoning, there are two ways to solve problems with uncertain knowledge:

 Bayes' rule
 Bayesian Statistics

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

As probabilistic reasoning uses probability and related terms, so before understanding

probabilistic reasoning, let's understand some common terms:

Probability: Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain event will occur. It is
the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. The value of probability
always remains between 0 and 1 that represent ideal uncertainties.

1. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, where P(A) is the probability of an event A.

1. P(A) = 0, indicates total uncertainty in an event A.

1. P(A) =1, indicates total certainty in an event A.

We can find the probability of an uncertain event by using the below formula.

 P(¬A) = probability of a not happening event.

 P(¬A) + P(A) = 1.

Event: Each possible outcome of a variable is called an event.

Sample space: The collection of all possible events is called sample space.

Random variables: Random variables are used to represent the events and objects in the real
world.

Prior probability: The prior probability of an event is probability computed before

observing new information.

Posterior Probability: The probability that is calculated after all evidence or information has
taken into account. It is a combination of prior probability and new information.

Conditional probability:
Conditional probability is a probability of occurring an event when another event has already
happened.

Let's suppose, we want to calculate the event A when event B has already occurred, "the
probability of A under the conditions of B", it can be written as:

Where P(A⋀B)= Joint probability of a and B

P(B)= Marginal probability of B.

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

If the probability of A is given and we need to find the probability of B, then it will be given
as:

It can be explained by using the below Venn diagram, where B is occurred event, so sample
space will be reduced to set B, and now we can only calculate event A when event B is
already occurred by dividing the probability of P(A⋀B) by P( B ).

Example:
In a class, there are 70% of the students who like English and 40% of the students who likes
English and mathematics, and then what is the percent of students those who like English also
like mathematics?

Solution:

Let, A is an event that a student likes Mathematics

B is an event that a student likes English.

Hence, 57% are the students who like English also like Mathematics.

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence

Bayes' theorem:
Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian reasoning, which
determines the probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.

In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of two
random events.

Bayes' theorem was named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes. The Bayesian
inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which is fundamental to Bayesian statistics.

It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).

Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by observing new
information of the real world.

Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by using Bayes' theorem, we can determine
the probability of cancer more accurately with the help of age.

Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability of event A with
known event B:

As from product rule we can write:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or

Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)

Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:

The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem. This equation is basic of
most modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.

It shows the simple relationship between joint and conditional probabilities. Here,

P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we need to calculate, and it will be read as Probability
of hypothesis A when we have occurred an evidence B.

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we consider that hypothesis is true, then we calculate
the probability of evidence.

P(A) is called the prior probability, probability of hypothesis before considering the
evidence

P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an evidence.

In the equation (a), in general, we can write P (B) = P(A)*P(B|Ai), hence the Bayes' rule can
be written as:

Where A1, A2, A3,........, An is a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

Applying Bayes' rule:

Bayes' rule allows us to compute the single term P(B|A) in terms of P(A|B), P(B), and P(A).
This is very useful in cases where we have a good probability of these three terms and want
to determine the fourth one. Suppose we want to perceive the effect of some unknown cause,
and want to compute that cause, then the Bayes' rule becomes:

Example-1:

Question: what is the probability that a patient has diseases meningitis with a stiff neck?
Given Data:
A doctor is aware that disease meningitis causes a patient to have a stiff neck, and it occurs
80% of the time. He is also aware of some more facts, which are given as follows:
 The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000.
 The Known probability that a patient has a stiff neck is 2%.
Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff neck and b be the proposition that patient has
meningitis. , so we can calculate the following as:
P(a|b) = 0.8

P(b) = 1/30000

P(a)= .02

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

Hence, we can assume that 1 patient out of 750 patients has meningitis disease with a stiff
neck.

Example-2:

Question: From a standard deck of playing cards, a single card is drawn. The
probability that the card is king is 4/52, then calculate posterior probability P(King|
Face), which means the drawn face card is a king card.

Solution:

P(king): probability that the card is King= 4/52= 1/13

P(face): probability that a card is a face card= 3/13

P(Face|King): probability of face card when we assume it is a king = 1

Putting all values in equation (i) we will get:

Application of Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence:

Following are some applications of Bayes' theorem:
 It is used to calculate the next step of the robot when the already executed step is
given.
 Bayes' theorem is helpful in weather forecasting.
 It can solve the Monty Hall problem.

Bayesian Belief Network in artificial intelligence

Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for dealing with probabilistic
events and to solve a problem which has uncertainty. We can define a Bayesian network as:
"A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set of variables
and their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph."
It is also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network, or Bayesian model.
Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from a probability
distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and anomaly detection.

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to represent the relationship between
multiple events, we need a Bayesian network. It can also be used in various tasks including
prediction, anomaly detection, diagnostics, automated insight, reasoning, time series
prediction, and decision making under uncertainty.

Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts opinions, and it
consists of two parts:

 Directed Acyclic Graph

 Table of conditional probabilities.

The generalized form of Bayesian network that represents and solve decision problems under
uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence diagram.

A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed links), where:

 Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can be continuous or
discrete.
 Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional probabilities between
random variables. These directed links or arrows connect the pair of nodes in the graph.
These links represent that one node directly influence the other node, and if there is no
directed link that means that nodes are independent with each other
o In the above diagram, A, B, C, and D are random variables represented by the
nodes of the network graph.
o If we are considering node B, which is connected with node A by a directed
arrow, then node A is called the parent of Node B.
o Node C is independent of node A.

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

Note: The Bayesian network graph does not contain any cyclic graph. Hence, it is known as a
directed acyclic graph or DAG.

The Bayesian network has mainly two components:

 Causal Component
 Actual numbers

Each node in the Bayesian network has condition probability distribution P(Xi |Parent(Xi) ),
which determines the effect of the parent on that node.

Bayesian network is based on Joint probability distribution and conditional probability. So

let's first understand the joint probability distribution:

Joint probability distribution:

If we have variables x1, x2, x3,....., xn, then the probabilities of a different combination of x1,
x2, x3.. xn, are known as Joint probability distribution.

P[x1, x2, x3,....., xn], it can be written as the following way in terms of the joint probability
distribution.

= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2, x3,....., xn]

= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2|x3,....., xn]....P[xn-1|xn]P[xn].

In general for each variable Xi, we can write the equation as:

P(Xi|Xi-1,........., X1) = P(Xi |Parents(Xi ))

Explanation of Bayesian network:

Let's understand the Bayesian network through an example by creating a directed acyclic
graph:

Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect burglary. The alarm
reliably responds at detecting a burglary but also responds for minor earthquakes. Harry has
two neighbors David and Sophia, who have taken a responsibility to inform Harry at work
when they hear the alarm. David always calls Harry when he hears the alarm, but sometimes
he got confused with the phone ringing and calls at that time too. On the other hand, Sophia
likes to listen to high music, so sometimes she misses to hear the alarm. Here we would like
to compute the probability of Burglary Alarm.

Problem:

Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is neither a burglary, nor an
earthquake occurred, and David and Sophia both called the Harry.

Solution:

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

 The Bayesian network for the above problem is given below. The network structure is
showing that burglary and earthquake is the parent node of the alarm and directly
affecting the probability of alarm's going off, but David and Sophia's calls depend on
alarm probability.
 The network is representing that our assumptions do not directly perceive the burglary
and also do not notice the minor earthquake, and they also not confer before calling.
 The conditional distributions for each node are given as conditional probabilities table
or CPT.
 Each row in the CPT must be sum to 1 because all the entries in the table represent an
exhaustive set of cases for the variable.
 In CPT, a boolean variable with k boolean parents contains 2K probabilities. Hence, if
there are two parents, then CPT will contain 4 probability values

List of all events occurring in this network:

 Burglary (B)
 Earthquake(E)
 Alarm(A)
 David Calls(D)
 Sophia calls(S)

We can write the events of problem statement in the form of probability: P[D, S, A, B, E],
can rewrite the above probability statement using joint probability distribution:

P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]

=P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]

= P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]

= P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]

= P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

Let's take the observed probability for the Burglary and earthquake component:
P(B= True) = 0.002, which is the probability of burglary.
P(B= False)= 0.998, which is the probability of no burglary.
P(E= True)= 0.001, which is the probability of a minor earthquake
P(E= False)= 0.999, Which is the probability that an earthquake not occurred.

We can provide the conditional probabilities as per the below tables:

Conditional probability table for Alarm A:

The Conditional probability of Alarm A depends on Burglar and earthquake:

B E P(A= True) P(A= False)

True True 0.94 0.06
True False 0.95 0.04
False True 0.31 0.69
False False 0.001 0.999

Conditional probability table for David Calls:

The Conditional probability of David that he will call depends on the probability of Alarm.

A P(D= True) P(D= False)

True 0.91 0.09
False 0.05 0.95

Conditional probability table for Sophia Calls:

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])

 lOMoARcPSD|53594808

The Conditional probability of Sophia that she calls is depending on its Parent Node "Alarm."

A P(S= True) P(S= False)

True 0.75 0.25
False 0.02 0.98

From the formula of joint distribution, we can write the problem statement in the form of
probability distribution:

P(S, D, A, ¬B, ¬E) = P (S|A) *P (D|A)*P (A|¬B ^ ¬E) *P (¬B) *P (¬E).

= 0.75* 0.91* 0.001* 0.998*0.999

= 0.00068045.

Hence, a Bayesian network can answer any query about the domain by using Joint
distribution.

The semantics of Bayesian Network:

There are two ways to understand the semantics of the Bayesian network, which is given
below:

1. To understand the network as the representation of the Joint probability distribution.

It is helpful to understand how to construct the network.

2. To understand the network as an encoding of a collection of conditional independence

statements.

It is helpful in designing inference procedure.

Downloaded by Aditya Yevate ([email protected])