Projections of future climate, measuring anthropogenic climate change, what are GCMs?

Carbon emission scenarios, Sustainability

Climate Projections
What are Climate Projections?
Climate projections are long-term estimates about how the Earth’s climate might change in the
future. Scientists use computer models to predict things like temperature, rainfall, sea levels, and
extreme weather events based on how much greenhouse gases (like carbon dioxide) we might
release.
These projections don't give daily weather forecasts — instead, they show general trends over
decades or centuries.
Why They Matter:
They help scientists, governments, and planners prepare for future changes and make good
decisions about protecting people and the environment.
How are Climate Projections Made?
They are created using Global Climate Models (GCMs).
 GCMs are powerful computer programs that simulate how the atmosphere, oceans, land,
and ice all interact.
 They break the world into a 3D grid and calculate climate variables (like temperature, wind,
rain) in each grid cell.
 GCMs are used to understand past climates (like ice ages), predict future changes (like
effects of CO₂ rise), and help plan climate policies.
Types of GCMs:
1. Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs (AOGCMs): Focus on how the atmosphere and oceans
interact.
2. Earth System Models (ESMs): Include more factors like carbon cycles, forests, and
human activities.
How They Work:
 GCMs solve thousands of complex math equations based on physics to model the climate.
 They first test the model against past climates to check accuracy.
 Then, they run future simulations using different greenhouse gas scenarios.

Carbon Emission Scenarios

What are Carbon Emission Scenarios?
These are different "what if" stories about how human activities (like industry, farming, energy
use) might affect future greenhouse gas emissions.
They help scientists explore different possible futures, not predict exactly what will happen.
They consider things like:
 Population growth
 Economic development
 New technologies
 Climate policies
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to zoom into smaller areas and give more detailed
projections based on GCM outputs.

Key Parts of Climate Projections

 Spatial Scale: Models can be global or regional. Finer details need more computer power.
 Baseline Period: Future changes are compared to past climate (often 1986–2005).
 Projection Timeline: Projections usually look at mid-century (2040–2060) and end-
century (2081–2100).
 Uncertainty:
o Uncertainties happen because we don’t know exactly how emissions or natural
changes will happen.
o Scientists deal with this by using many models and scenarios to show a range of
possible outcomes.

Measuring Human-Caused (Anthropogenic) Climate Change

Human activities (burning fossil fuels, cutting forests, farming) are heating the planet. Scientists
use many methods to measure and prove this:
1. Measuring Greenhouse Gases
o Direct Sampling: Stations like Mauna Loa (Hawaii) record CO₂ levels, showing a
steady rise (from 280 ppm before industrialization to over 420 ppm today).
o Satellites: Measure greenhouse gases all over the world and track trapped heat.
2. Isotope Analysis (Carbon Fingerprinting)
o Fossil fuels have a special carbon signature (more ¹²C, less ¹³C and ¹⁴C).
 o Measuring the atmosphere shows a fossil fuel fingerprint, proving the CO₂ rise is
human-caused.
3. Global Temperature Records
o Thermometers, buoys, and satellites show Earth’s surface has warmed about 1.2°C
since the 1800s.
o The last 10 years have been the hottest on record.
4. Paleoclimate Records (Past Climate Data)
o Ice Cores: Trapped bubbles show CO₂ and temperature over 800,000 years.
o Tree Rings, Sediment, Coral: Also show strong evidence of rapid warming since
the Industrial Revolution.
5. Attribution Studies Using Climate Models
o Models without human activity can’t explain current warming.
o Models with human activities match observed warming closely.
6. Physical Changes in Nature
o Melting Glaciers and Ice Sheets: Mass loss in Greenland, Antarctica, and Arctic
sea ice.
o Rising Sea Levels: Oceans rising about 20 cm since 1900.
o Ocean Acidification: Oceans absorbing CO₂, becoming more acidic, harming
marine life.
7. Scientific Consensus
o Over 97% of climate scientists agree that humans are the main cause of current
climate change.
o Major organizations like IPCC, NASA, and NOAA support this conclusion.

Sustainability
What is Sustainability?
Sustainability means using natural resources wisely so they are available for future generations.
It involves three main areas:
 Environmental Sustainability: Protecting nature, reducing pollution, and conserving
ecosystems.
 Economic Sustainability: Growing the economy in ways that don’t waste resources.
  Social Sustainability: Making sure everyone has fair opportunities and a good quality of
life.

Climate Action
What is Climate Action?
Climate action is about efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for the effects of
climate change.
 It is urgent because climate change is already harming people and nature.
 It needs international cooperation since emissions anywhere affect the whole world.
 It is part of the United Nations’ goals (SDG 13) and the Paris Agreement (aiming to limit
warming to below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C).
How Climate Action and Sustainability Connect:
 Climate action is one part of sustainability.
 Sustainability is broader, covering how we use all resources fairly and responsibly.
 In simple words: Climate action focuses on reducing climate damage. Sustainability
focuses on taking care of everything for the future.

Examples of Sustainable Climate Actions

International Agreements and Efforts:
1. Paris Agreement (2015)
o Aim: Keep global warming well below 2°C.
o Progress: Many countries made pledges, but more action is needed.
o Key Updates:
 2023 Global Stocktake showed slow progress.
 A "Loss and Damage Fund" was set up to help vulnerable countries.
2. Global Methane Pledge
o Goal: Cut methane emissions 30% by 2030.
o Over 150 countries joined.
3. Kigali Amendment (2016)
o Goal: Phase out HFCs (super-warming gases).
National and Local Actions:
 Pakistan:
o "10 Billion Tree Tsunami" project to restore forests.
o Plans for 60% renewable energy by 2030.
 United Kingdom:
o Net-zero emissions by 2050 through clean energy and home upgrades.
 Local Governments:
o West Hollywood promotes green businesses.
o Richfield, Minnesota focuses on renewable energy and green spaces.
Sector-Specific Actions:
1. Energy:
o Tripling solar and wind power by 2030.
o Ending international coal financing.
2. Transport:
o Aviation sector plans net-zero emissions by 2050.
o Growing support for electric vehicles.
3. Nature-Based Solutions:
o Planting trees (like Pakistan’s project).
o Sustainable farming to avoid deforestation.
Corporate and Community Efforts:
 Thousands of companies setting net-zero targets.
 Grassroots movements promoting recycling, plant-based diets, and reducing waste.

Key Challenges and Innovations

 Financing: Poorer countries need about $300 billion a year by 2035 for climate protection.
 Technology: Green hydrogen, carbon capture, and better energy storage are promising
solutions.
 Equity: Vulnerable communities must be central to climate solutions.
Critical Actions Needed Now
 Triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
 Phase out fossil fuels completely.
 Redirect the $5.3 trillion spent yearly on fossil fuel subsidies into clean energy.
In short: To stop climate change, countries, businesses, and communities must work together like
never before — across borders and sectors — to keep the planet safe for future generations.
Energy: Science of Energy, Forms of Energy, Energy Conversion, Sustainability of Energy
Systems

The Science of Energy:

The science of energy studies how energy works, how it behaves in physical systems, and how it
is used and transformed. At its core, it involves understanding:

Concept of Energy:

Energy is the capacity to do work or bring about change. It exists in everything around us and
is essential for all physical and biological processes. When an object moves, heats up, or changes
in any way, energy is involved. Although energy itself cannot be seen, its effects—like motion,
light, or heat—can be observed. It can be stored or transferred and exists in different forms such
as motion (kinetic), stored (potential), heat, or electricity.

Energy is a fundamental physical quantity defined as the capacity to perform work or cause change.
The core concept of energy is governed by the law of conservation of energy, which states that
energy cannot be created or destroyed; it can only be transformed from one form to another or
transferred between systems.

The characteristics of energy can be summarized as follows:

1. Conservation of Energy

Energy cannot be created or destroyed; it can only be transformed from one form to another or
transferred between objects or systems. The total amount of energy in a closed system remains
constant over time. For example, kinetic energy lost due to friction is converted into heat energy,
but the total energy remains unchanged.
2. Transferability

Energy can be transferred from one body or system to another. This transfer can occur through
various mechanisms such as conduction, convection, radiation, or mechanical work. For instance,
heat energy can transfer from a hot object to a cooler one, or mechanical energy can be transferred
through collisions.

3. Convertibility

Energy exists in many forms (kinetic, potential, thermal, chemical, electrical, nuclear, radiant, etc.)
and can be converted from one form to another. For example, potential energy can convert into
kinetic energy, chemical energy into thermal energy, or electrical energy into mechanical energy.
These conversions follow physical laws and are subject to efficiency limits.

4. Scalar Quantity

Energy is a scalar quantity, meaning it has magnitude but no direction. It is fully described by a
single numerical value (such as joules) without vector components.

5. Extensive Property

Energy is an extensive property, meaning its value depends on the size or extent of the system.
The total energy increases if the system size or amount of substance increases.

6. Degradability (Entropy and Usability)

While energy is preserved, it tends to degrade into less useful forms, such as heat degenerate into
the environment. This is related to the second law of thermodynamics, which states that energy
transformations are not 100% efficient, and some energy becomes unavailable to do useful work.

Summary Table of Energy Characteristics

Characteristics Description

Energy cannot be created or destroyed; total energy remains constant in a

Conservation
closed system.
Characteristics Description

Energy can be transferred between objects or systems via conduction,

Transferability
convection, radiation.

Convertibility Energy can change forms (e.g., potential to kinetic, chemical to thermal).

Scalar Quantity Energy has magnitude (level) but no direction.

Extensive
Energy depends on the size or amount of the system.
Property

Degradability Energy tends to convert into less usable forms, increasing entropy.

These fundamental properties explain how energy behaves in physical systems and underpin all
natural phenomena and technological processes.

Forms of Energy:

Energy exists in various forms, broadly classified into two main types: potential energy (stored
energy) and kinetic energy (energy of motion).

Forms of Energy:

Potential Energy (stored energy) includes:

 Chemical Energy: Stored in the bonds of atoms and molecules, such as in food,
gasoline, or batteries. When these bonds break, energy is released as heat, light, or
kinetic energy.
 Gravitational Energy: Energy stored due to an object's position in a gravitational
field, like water held behind a dam or a ball held at height.
 Mechanical Energy: Energy stored in objects by force or position, such as a drawn
bow or compressed spring. It can be potential or kinetic depending on context.
 Nuclear Energy: Stored in the nucleus of atoms, released during nuclear reactions like
division in power plants or fusion in the sun.
 Elastic Energy: Stored when objects are stretched or compressed, like rubber bands or
springs.
Kinetic Energy (energy of motion) includes:

 Electrical Energy: Energy from the movement of electrons, as in electricity or

lightning.
 Heat (Thermal) Energy: Energy from the vibration and movement of atoms or
molecules within substances, felt as heat.
 Light (Radiant) Energy: Electromagnetic energy visible to the human eye, such as
sunlight or light from a fire. Radiant energy also includes invisible forms like X-rays
and radio waves.
 Sound Energy: Energy carried by sound waves produced by vibrating objects.
 Mechanical Energy: The energy associated with motion, such as a moving ball or
flowing water, which is a form of kinetic energy.

Energy can transform from one form to another-for example, chemical energy in food is converted
to kinetic energy when we move, or kinetic energy of flowing water can be converted into electrical
energy in hydroelectric plants.

Energy conversion, or energy transformation, is the process of changing energy from one form
to another, following the law of conservation of energy which states that energy cannot be created
or destroyed but only transformed. This process is fundamental in both natural phenomena and
human-made devices.

Common Types of Energy Conversion

 Chemical to Electrical or Light Energy: In a flashlight, chemical energy stored in

batteries converts first to electrical energy, then to light energy.

 Radiant (Light) to Chemical Energy: Plants convert radiant energy from the sun into
chemical energy through photosynthesis, storing energy in glucose.

 Mechanical to Electrical Energy: Windmills convert the mechanical energy of moving

blades into electrical energy.

 Electrical to Mechanical Energy: Electric fans convert electrical energy into mechanical
energy to rotate blades.
  Electrical to Thermal Energy: Toasters and electric heaters convert electrical energy into
heat.

 Potential to Kinetic Energy: A roller coaster’s potential energy when stationary converts
to kinetic energy as it moves.

 Nuclear to Thermal and Electrical Energy: In nuclear power plants, nuclear energy is
converted to thermal energy by fission, then to mechanical energy in turbines, and finally
to electrical energy by generators.

Examples in Machines and Nature

 Coal-fired power plant: Chemical energy in coal → thermal energy (combustion) →

steam thermal energy → mechanical energy (turbine) → electrical energy (generator).

 Automobiles: Chemical energy in fuel → kinetic energy of expanding gases → mechanical

energy moving pistons → rotary motion → vehicle motion.

 Photosynthesis: Solar nuclear energy → radiant energy → chemical energy stored in

plants.

 Electric generators and motors: Mechanical energy ↔ electrical energy conversions.

Significance and Efficiency:

Energy conversions often involve some loss, usually as heat, reducing overall efficiency. For
example, internal burning engines convert only about 20-30% of chemical energy into mechanical
energy, while modern photovoltaic cells convert about 20-22% of solar energy into electrical
energy. Understanding these conversions helps optimize energy use and develop sustainable
technologies.

1. What is a Sustainable Energy System?

A sustainable energy system is one that can meet the present energy demands without
endangering the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It ensures a balance
between environmental protection, economic development, and social well-being while
providing secure, affordable, and clean energy.

It focuses on:
  Using renewable energy sources

 Efficient energy use

 Reducing environmental impact

 Promoting equitable access to energy

2. Key Components of Sustainability in Energy Systems

A. Environmental Sustainability

 Reduces greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution.

 Minimizes ecosystem disruption.

 Promotes clean technologies (e.g., solar panels, wind turbines).

B. Economic Sustainability

 Encourages long-term cost efficiency.

 Supports green jobs and industries.

 Reduces dependency on imported fuels.

C. Social Sustainability

 Ensures access to energy for all (energy equity).

 Enhances quality of life through reliable and clean energy.

 Supports community development.

3. Role of Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is central to sustainable energy systems. These include:

 Solar Energy – Abundant and clean.

 Wind Energy – Renewable and cost-effective.

  Hydropower – Reliable and scalable.

 Geothermal and Biomass – Useful in various climates and regions.

Unlike fossil fuels, renewables do not deplete and have minimal environmental impact.

4. Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Sustainability is not just about the source of energy, but also how we use it:

 Using energy-efficient appliances and machines.

 Improving building insulation and design.

 Promoting smart grids and public transportation.

 Encouraging behavioral changes (turning off unused lights, etc.).

5. Challenges to Achieving Energy Sustainability

 High initial cost of renewable infrastructure.

 Technological limitations (e.g., energy storage).

 Policy and political barriers.

 Need for public awareness and behavioral change.

 Issues with intermittency of some renewables (e.g., solar and wind).

6. Solutions and Strategies

To build sustainable energy systems, we need:

 Government policies and incentives to support clean energy.

 Research and innovation in energy storage, smart grids, and clean tech.

 Global cooperation to meet climate targets (like the Paris Agreement).

  Education and awareness to promote responsible energy use.

 Investment in infrastructure, especially in developing regions.

7. Global Goals Related to Sustainable Energy

 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7):

"Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all."

This includes:

o Universal access to electricity.

o Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency.

o Increasing the share of renewables in the global energy mix.

8. Real-World Examples

 Germany’s Energiewende: A transition policy towards 100% renewable energy.

 Iceland: Nearly all electricity comes from hydro and geothermal energy.

 India’s Solar Mission: Aiming for large-scale solar power expansion.

✅ Conclusion

A sustainable energy system is not just about switching energy sources—it’s about transforming
the entire energy structure to ensure long-term environmental health, economic prosperity, and
social equity. It requires collaboration between governments, industries, and individuals to
create a clean, efficient, and fair energy future.