Fertility is a demographic term that refers to the actual reproductive performance of

individuals, couples, or a population, specifically measured by the number of live births

produced, typically by a woman or within a population group.

In demographic studies, fertility is often quantified using various measures, such as:

1.​ Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman would have
during her lifetime if she experienced the current age-specific fertility rates throughout
her childbearing years (usually ages 15 to 49).

Example: Let’s say in a particular country, women in different age groups have the
following average numbers of children:

●​ Ages 15-19: 0.5 children per woman

●​ Ages 20-24: 1.0 children per woman
●​ Ages 25-29: 1.2 children per woman
●​ Ages 30-34: 1.1 children per woman
●​ Ages 35-39: 0.7 children per woman
●​ Ages 40-44: 0.3 children per woman
●​ Ages 45-49: 0.1 children per woman

Adding these together gives a TFR of 4.9 children per woman. This means that, on
average, each woman would have about 4.9 children if she went through her
reproductive years experiencing these age-specific birth rates.

2.​ Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the number of live births in a
population per 1000 individuals during a specific time period, usually one year.

Example: Let’s say a country has a population of 1,000,000 people, and 20,000 live
births occur in a year. The CBR would be calculated as:

20,000 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠

𝐶𝐵𝑅 = 1,000,000 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒
× 1000 = 20 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 1000 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒

So, the CBR is 20, meaning there are 20 live births per 1,000 people in that population
for that year.

3.​ Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): The number of live births to women in a
particular age group (usually in five-year intervals like 20-24, 25-29) per 1,000 women in
that age group during a specific time period, usually one year.
 Example: Let’s say we are looking at women aged 25-29 in a country. If there are
200,000 women in that age group and 10,000 births in a year among them, the ASFR
for women aged 25-29 would be:

10,000 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝐴𝑆𝐹𝑅 = 200,000 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛
× 1000 = 50 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 1000 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛

So, the ASFR for the 25-29 age group is 50. This means that in this year, there were 50
births per 1,000 women aged 25-29.

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Fecundity refers to the biological capacity or potential of individuals or a population to

reproduce, representing the maximum possible reproductive capacity under ideal conditions
assuming no barriers to conception or childbirth.

Fecundity is shaped by several key biological factors, including:

●​ Age: Women’s fecundity generally reaches its peak in their 20s, then gradually declines,
with a notable decrease after age 35. This age-related decline is due to changes in the
quality and quantity of eggs over time.

●​ Health: Overall health, including nutrition and the absence of reproductive health
disorders, is crucial for fecundity. Conditions like obesity, malnutrition, or diseases
affecting the reproductive system can reduce a person's reproductive potential.

●​ Genetics: Genetic factors can affect an individual's reproductive potential. Inherited

traits may impact the likelihood of conception or influence fertility-related health
conditions, which can, in turn, affect fecundity at both individual and population levels.

A woman might be biologically fecund (capable of conceiving and bearing children) but may
not actually produce children (fertility) due to personal choices, use of contraception, or societal
factors. Fecundity represents the potential for population growth if all individuals or couples
were to reproduce at their biological maximum capacity.
Fertility and fecundity are related but distinct concepts in demography. Fertility refers to the
actual number of children born to an individual or population, while fecundity represents the
biological potential to reproduce under ideal conditions. The table below summarises
the key differences between these two terms.

Basis of differences Fertility Fecundity

Actual number of live births Biological capacity or

Definition a woman or population potential to reproduce under
produces. ideal conditions.

Measured through Not directly measurable;

Measurement demographic indicators like inferred through biological
TFR, CBR, and ASFR. studies.

Socio-economic, cultural,
Biological factors (e.g., age,
Influencing Factors personal choices (e.g.,
health, genetics).
contraception, marriage age).

Can vary widely due to Relatively stable, influenced

Variability social, economic, and mostly by age, health, and
personal factors. genetics.

Targeted by family planning, Influences reproductive

Policy Implications reproductive health policies, health and fertility treatment
and population control. policies.

Can change over a person’s Peaked in early adulthood,

Temporal Dynamics life based on life declines with age, mainly
circumstances. biological in nature.

Strongly influenced by
Psychological & Social Less influenced by social
cultural, economic, and
Influences personal factors.
factors, more biological.

Can be indirectly influenced

Can be directly influenced by
by medical treatments for
Medical Interventions medical treatments like IVF,
reproductive health like
fertility drugs.
hormone therapy.

Directly impacted by health

Environmental & Affected by lifestyle choices
and environmental factors
Lifestyle Factors like diet, stress, and health.
(e.g., toxins, diet).
 Population-Level Impacts population growth Sets the upper biological
Implications rates and structure. limit for population growth.

Education improves overall

Higher education is linked to
Role of Education health, indirectly affecting
lower fertility.
fecundity.

Varies widely across cultures Less variation across cultures,

Cross-Cultural
due to social norms, religion, as it is biologically similar
Variations and economic conditions. worldwide.

The Davis and Blake model, proposed by sociologists Kingsley Davis and Judith Blake
in 1956, provides a comprehensive framework for analysing the direct determinants of fertility
within a population. It identifies three main categories of intermediate variables that directly
affect fertility: intercourse variables, conception variables, and gestation variables.
1.​ Intercourse Variables

These factors relate to how often and when people have sexual intercourse, which in
turn influences how many opportunities there are for conception. This includes:

●​ Age at Marriage or Union Formation: The earlier individuals marry, the

longer their reproductive period, often resulting in higher fertility rates. Delayed
marriage reduces the reproductive window, leading to lower fertility rates.
★​ Example: In Bangladesh, early marriage contributed to high fertility
rates, but later marriages have led to a decline in fertility as women have
more opportunities for education and career development.
●​ Frequency of Intercourse: Regular sexual activity increases the likelihood of
conception. Cultural, social, and personal factors play a role here.
★​ Example: Some societies impose periods of abstinence for religious
reasons, which can temporarily reduce fertility.
●​ Voluntary and Involuntary Abstinence: Abstinence, whether for personal,
religious, or health reasons, reduces sexual activity and fertility.
★​ Example: Postpartum abstinence practices can extend birth intervals,
lowering fertility.

2.​ Conception Variables

These factors influence whether conception occurs when couples have intercourse. They
include:

●​ Use of Contraception: Contraceptive use allows couples to control the timing

and number of children, thus reducing fertility rates.
★​ Example: In Bangladesh, increased access to contraceptive methods has
been crucial in reducing fertility rates.
●​ Fecundity: Fecundity refers to biological capacity to conceive and carry a
pregnancy to term. Women’s fecundity peaks in their 20s, and declines with age,
particularly after 35.
★​ Example: In populations where women delay childbirth, fertility rates
may be lower, even when fecundity is high in early reproductive years.
●​ Infertility: Infertility, whether voluntary (e.g., sterilisation) or involuntary (e.g.,
due to medical conditions), reduces fertility rates.
 ★​ Example: Conditions like PCOS or endometriosis lower fertility rates,
and infertility treatments such as IVF may help couples conceive.

3.​ Gestation Variables

These factors influence whether pregnancies result in live birth, thus impacting overall
fertility. They include:

●​ Miscarriage or Stillbirth: Health complications, age, and environmental factors

can lead to miscarriage or stillbirth, impacting fertility.
★​ Example: Higher maternal age increases the risk of miscarriage and
stillbirth, particularly when childbirth is delayed.
●​ Abortion: The availability of abortion services affects fertility rates, as women
can terminate unwanted pregnancies.
★​ Example: In countries where abortion is legal, fertility rates may be
lower due to the ability to control family size through abortion.
●​ Maternal Health: The health of the mother, including access to prenatal care
and general well-being, impacts pregnancy outcomes.
★​ Example: Improvements in maternal healthcare in Bangladesh have
resulted in fewer miscarriages and stillbirths, contributing to lower
fertility rates.

The Davis and Blake model holds significant relevance for Bangladesh as it
offers a comprehensive framework for understanding and addressing fertility
rates in the country. Here’s how its application impacts Bangladesh in various
key areas:

1.​ Framework for Population Control​

The model provides a structured approach to identify factors affecting fertility, like age
at marriage, contraceptive usage, and maternal health, which are crucial in the context
of Bangladesh's efforts to control population growth. This helps policymakers in
formulating targeted interventions to manage population size effectively.
2.​ Guidance for Family Planning Programs​
By focusing on direct determinants of fertility, the model has been instrumental in
shaping family planning programs across Bangladesh. Access to contraception and
 reproductive health education, informed by this model, have contributed significantly
to the reduction of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).
3.​ Influence on Health Policy​
The model underscores the importance of maternal health as a critical factor for
successful pregnancies and reducing infant mortality. In Bangladesh, this has led to
increased investment in maternal healthcare, which in turn has positively influenced
fertility rates and overall health outcomes.
4.​ Support for Women’s Empowerment​
Recognizing the role of women’s education and empowerment in lowering fertility
rates, the model supports initiatives that promote female education and delay marriage.
This has been essential in improving women's socio-economic status and reducing
fertility rates in Bangladesh.
5.​ Adaptability to Cultural Contexts​
The model's focus on factors like voluntary abstinence and marriage timing aligns well
with Bangladesh's cultural and religious context. This cultural adaptability allows
policymakers to design fertility management strategies that are respectful and effective
within the country’s societal norms.
6.​ Impact on Economic Development​
With reduced fertility rates, the model indirectly supports economic growth by
promoting a manageable population size. This contributes to a better allocation of
resources and improved quality of life, fostering overall economic progress in
Bangladesh.
7.​ Reduction of Child and Maternal Mortality​
By emphasising maternal health and safe abortion services as factors influencing fertility,
the model supports interventions that improve health outcomes. Bangladesh’s progress
in these areas has led to lower maternal and child mortality rates, aligning with the
model’s insights.
8.​ Basis for Policy Formulation​
The model acts as a foundation for creating policies in healthcare, education, and social
welfare that address fertility factors directly. This ensures that policies are responsive to
the actual needs of the population, leading to more effective outcomes.
9.​ Contribution to Sustainable Development​
Lower fertility rates, as promoted by the model, contribute to sustainable development
in Bangladesh. This helps in managing resources efficiently, improving health, and
promoting long-term sustainability goals, supporting Bangladesh’s commitment to the
UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
 10.​Promotion of Gender Equality​
By focusing on factors like the timing of marriage and family planning, the model
contributes to gender equality. Empowering women to make informed reproductive
choices has broad implications for gender relations and improves the overall status of
women in Bangladesh, promoting greater equality.

In sum, the Davis and Blake model offers Bangladesh a versatile and culturally adaptable
framework that is instrumental in controlling fertility rates and advancing socio-economic
development.