01 Articulo DosierIA 2 2024
01 Articulo DosierIA 2 2024
4-12
Stephen Murgatroyd
Futures Leadership for Change Inc., Canadá
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2696-8779
E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract
This paper explores the difference between the transformation idea and the reality of how colleges and
universities leverage technologies for teaching, learning and assessment. We seek to understand why a structural
and operational transformation of these institutions rarely happens and offer an understanding of the structural,
operational, financial, and political constraints that prevent transformation but encourage continuous improvement.
More specifically, we suggest that AI will not deliver on its promise to finally “solve” the so-called “two sigma”
problem, which arises from the work of Bloom (1984), who showed that students taught through tutoring
performed better by two standard deviations than those taught in a traditional classroom.
Keywords: artificial intelligence, AI, artificial intelligence in education, AIED, higher education, transformation.
Resumen
Este documento explora la diferencia entre la idea de transformación y la realidad de cómo las facultades
y universidades aprovechan las tecnologías para la enseñanza, el aprendizaje y la evaluación. Tratamos de entender
por qué rara vez se produce una transformación estructural y operativa de estas instituciones y ofrecemos una
comprensión de las limitaciones estructurales, operativas, financieras y políticas que impiden la transformación,
pero fomentan la mejora continua. Más concretamente, sugerimos que la IA no cumplirá su promesa de «resolver»
por fin el llamado problema de las «dos sigmas», que se deriva del trabajo de Bloom (1984), quien demostró que
los estudiantes a los que se enseñaba mediante tutoría obtenían mejores resultados en dos desviaciones estándar
que los que recibían enseñanza en un aula tradicional.
Palabras clave: inteligencia artificial, IA, inteligencia artificial en la educación, AIED, enseñanza superior,
transformación.
Sal Khan, has suggested that artificial intelligence (AI) will have a profound impact on
the future of education. As founder of the Khan Academy and pioneer of video and chatbot-
based learning, Khan has a vested and fiduciary interest in saying so. In his book (Khan, 2024),
he suggests that “we're at the cusp of using AI for probably the biggest positive transformation
that education has ever seen. The way we're going to do that is by giving every student on the
planet an artificially intelligent, but amazing, personal tutor."
He is not alone. Others have suggested that a major transformation fuelled by AI and
educational technology is now clearly on the horizon. This is even though this narrative began
in the 1920s with early teaching machines and has so far failed to materialize (Watters,
2019,2021) and repeated attempts to revive the idea (Christensen et al., 2008) prove hollow.
This paper explores the difference between the transformation idea and the reality of
how colleges and universities leverage technologies for teaching, learning and assessment. We
seek to understand why a structural and operational transformation of these institutions rarely
happens and offer an understanding of the structural, operational, financial, and political
constraints that prevent transformation but encourage continuous improvement. More
specifically, we suggest that AI will not deliver on its promise to finally “solve” the so-called
“two sigma” problem, which arises from the work of Bloom (1984), who showed that students
taught through tutoring performed better by two standard deviations than those taught in a
traditional classroom.
Not only in various industries but also within education, AI offers significant
opportunities for performance and productivity improvement (Mollick & Mollick, 2024; Khan,
2024). Along with recent developments and innovations with each new release of a generative
AI model like ChatGPT5 or Claude 3 Sonnet, the promise that AI brings to education expands
and new applications become apparent. Many benefits are already apparent, including serving
as a 24x7 assistant with providing round-the-clock support, answering questions, dialogue-
based tutoring, and gathering, analyzing, and summarizing data from various sources only in
seconds (Miao et al., 2021). AI also enables multi-language learning with instant translation.
Moreover, AI enriches learning environments through multiple types pf learning materials such
as multimedia and simulations (Ghnemat et al., 2022; Holmes & Tuomi, 2022; Murgatroyd,
2024a). AI is seen by some to have the potential to revolutionize higher education (HE) with
personalized learning and feedback (George, & Wooden, 2023). AI functions as a kind of
intelligent tutoring system providing computer-based step-by-step tutorials to learners (Holmes
& Tuomi, 2022; Miao et al., 2021), providing automatic feedback, formative assessment,
alternative approaches, and guidance. It can identify at-risk students and provide early
interventions for them to support their learning journey (George, & Wooden, 2023). For
educators, AI brings an efficient and effective way of in-classroom monitoring and automating
summative evaluation. AI can help educators to easily create various forms of instructional
materials and smart curation. There is a great deal of potential for education in the effective
deployment of AI in colleges and universities (Murgatroyd, 2024b).
For poliEdTech entrepreneurs, they regard higher education as a very large public sector
industry worth around $1.5 trillion worldwide. The sector spends less than 4% of its budget
(app.$75-100 billion) on technology hardware and software. EdTech developers and vendors
want to move this spending to nearer 7 or 8%. Most of them have convinced themselves that
education is ready for an AI transformation, providing individualized learning, adaptive
assessment, and personal support for learners. More online and hybrid learning, more data-
driven instruction, more formative assessment, and less reliance on precarious instructors which
in turn come up with the idea of automating teacher tasks (Selwyn, 2019; Sperling et al., 2022)
is anticipated to ‘transform’ education. Between 2015 and 2023 a total of$75.5 billion in venture
capital has been invested in EdTech, mainly in China, US, India and Europei.
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“banking activity” (Biesta, 2017; Freire, 1973; Murgatroyd, 2024a); but rather is a collective
engagement guided and influenced by teachers who serve as a catalyst for liberation and
reimagination in that process as being a creative talent. A lack of understanding of what
educators do in society results in an exaggerated expectation of AI as a transformative tool
(Jean-Louis, 2021). There is a distinct gap between the reality and expectations of AI in HE.
A ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach in education is impossible for any learning technology.
Defining educational problems as simpler than in reality and standardizing a technology
deployment strategy as if responding to the needs of all learners and their instructors is clearly
an overhype. It does not fit with the reality and challenges of college and university classrooms.
Underestimating the complexity and nuances of educational problems, outcomes, solutions, and
challenges leads to more harm than good. Education challenges are complex, “wicked
problems,” not as easy and simple to respond to as many AI developers anticipate. Although
reaching a consensus is challenging when the future of a learning community and education
eco-system, rather than just individuals, is at stake, there is a need for genuine, open dialogue
and engagement of students, teachers and policy makers for the next stage of development of
AI for education. AI is not a panacea in education, despite being showing potential and promise.
There is also a need to understand that educational systems are at different stages of
development. Education is culturally located, local and different. Literature or history courses
are different in New York, Lagos, Caracas, and Bangladesh. No one size fits all.
Despite increasing promise and potential shown with each new release of a generative
AI model or application, AI remains overhyped and underused. A platform adopted in January
2024 become outdated in March due to the rapid pace of AI development and refinement. For
example, the power of ChatGPT4o was, within three weeks, surpassed by Claude 3 Sonnet.
Consequently, many institutions avoid the risk of failure by making such a significant
investment in training and deployment, especially since there is limited funding available for
innovation and risk-taking (Bates et al., 2020; Wheeler, 2019; Murgatroyd, 2024b). Colleges,
and universities generally need to be convinced that new technologies can enhance learning
outcomes and learner experience in significant and sustainable ways. Most technologies do not.
This is why the education sector tends to remain highly conservative when new technologies
emerge (Bates et al., 2020; Watters, 2021).
AI also poses ethical concerns. Problems of academic integrity, cheating, faculty
dishonesty in academic writing, and issues about bias, equity, and inclusion have also led to
resistance by faculty and administrators. These issues slow AI-driven change and
transformation in education, leading to a more gradual, considered and measured pace of
change. Higher education institutions have to implement precautionary policies and practices
to respond to these issues since fundamental human rights and data privacy issues are at the
heart of these ethical concerns. This has also slowed and inhibited the deployment and use of
AI (Berendt, Littlejohn & Blakemore, 2020). In addition, nation-level laws, regulation and
policies are being developed that will require certain conditions of transparency and protection
to be implemented, which is also causing caution in the institutional deployment of AI.
Many of the established EdTech companies have been selling the same basic proposition
about what technology can do since the 1920s and have yet to deliver (Cuban, 1986; Watters,
2019; 2021). They are selling the idea that “education is broken” and that they can now fix it
using AI. In this, they are mistaken. The following table compares and contrasts the EdTech
“value proposition” with the reality of the situation in education as we understand it.
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Table1. The EdTech Value Proposition to “Fix” Broken Education versus Reality
Education is Broken – Technology Can Fix It Educational Institutions Are Complex and Their
Challenges Complex: No Quick Fixes
• Define the problem as simple and offer a • Educational outcomes and “performance” are
standardized solution (e.g. No Child Left “wicked problems” not simple ones.
Behind, tutoring beats classroom teaching). • Both the problem and the solution are local,
• The problem is a global one, not just local. A not global, and need to be owned locally.
fix in New York will work in Bangladesh or • So as to make progress, all need to understand
Turkey. the past, present, and future and the way in
• So as to gain control of the situation, we need which outcomes are shaped by factors outside
to make increased use of data and analytics the institution (inequality, poverty, precarity,
and chatbots. food poverty, homelessness).
• By imposing targets and deadlines we can • There needs to be a recognition that no one
push the system to respond – we also need to size fits all and that consensus is difficult
intervene with more technology and new when what is at stake is the future of the
leadership if targets are not met. community, not just individuals.
• Standardize the strategy and responses to all • What is needed is robust, evidence-informed
challenges - one size fits all. decision-making and risk-taking.
• This all requires agile and adaptive
leadership.
Over the long one-hundred-year history of EdTech, the value proposition has remained
largely the same, but the tools used to suggest a “Solution and fix” keep changing (Watters,
2019, 2021). The challenges within higher education have become more complex, volatile,
uncertain, and brittle, made worse by the continued underfunding of higher education around
the world.
Educators need to pay attention to the potential of AI, rather focus on the negatives
(Bates et al., 2020; Murgatroyd, 2024b). Beginning from Vygotsky’s empirical work on the
role of tools in human cognition in which he asserted that technology can augment human
thinking (Tuomi, 2022), there is a need to systematically explore the potential and opportunities
AI affords to shift teaching, learning and assessment to a more twenty-first century approach.
AI can help, but the key is that it supplements and supports the work of compassionate and
effective teachers. As individuals interact with tools, they engage in a process of cognitive
transformation, where these tools become integral to their thinking processes. That means it
expands their capacity for problem-solving and conceptual understanding beyond what is
achievable through unaided cognition. This perspective underscores the profound influence of
technology on human intellectual development, influencing how we perceive, learn, and
innovate in our increasingly complex world. Considering the role of technology in enhancing
our cognition as described by Vygotsky, leaders can leverage technology for robust, evidence-
informed decision-making.
AI can also enhance leaders' capacity in higher education since it can provide calculated
risk assessment tools and evidence-informed strategies for fostering continuous adaptation,
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Susskind, 2020). To achieve this, they will need to develop AI literacy and digital fluency as
well as new relevant competencies of evidence assessment and AI ethics into the curriculum.
Every student should leave college or university with a high level of skill and experience in
using AI tools as a co-intelligent partner in their learning (Mollick, 2024). This, in turn, requires
higher education institutions to adopt innovative teaching pedagogies and assessment
techniques and also build interdisciplinary programs very soon. They need to follow the
developments and fulfill the needs and necessities of the fourth industrial revolution to boost
student preparedness for the next-generation workforce.
As is always the case with innovative developments, spectacular failures are likely to
occur. The question is: will schools, colleges, and universities learn from failure and use the
failure as a basis for “leap-frogging to the future”, or will the failure inhibit innovation
(Murgatroyd, 2023)?
To sum up, as we see more effective, innovative, and successful AI-assisted and AI-
enabled implementations in universities and colleges, change will occur gradually. Despite the
venture capital push and the vendor claims about AI having the power to “revolutionize” and
“transform” education, it will not happen - at least not in the next decade. Despite the promises,
increasing demand, and over $150 billion in EdTech investment since 2000, we should not
expect AI to be a magic wand. Instead, AI technologies should be recognized as ‘far from
perfect, but improving’ (Miao et al., 2021, p. 11).
Author Contributions: All authors contributed equally to the conception, development, and
writing of the article.
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End Notes
i
See https://www.holoniq.com/notes/edtech-vc-collapse-at-580m-for-q1-not-even-an-ai-tailwind-could-hold-up-
the-10-year-low for detailed analysis of EdTech investments.
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