Environmental Science and Engineering

Subodh Chandra Pal

Uday Chatterjee
Martiwi Diah Setiawati
Dipankar Ruidas Editors

Remotely Sensed
Rivers in the Age
of Anthropocene
Environmental Science and Engineering

Series Editors
Ulrich Förstner, Buchholz, Germany
Wim H. Rulkens, Department of Environmental Technology, Wageningen
University Inst Landbouwuniv, Wageningen, Gelderland, The Netherlands
The ultimate goal of this series is to contribute to the protection of our environment,
which calls for both profound research and the ongoing development of solutions
and measurements by experts in the field. Accordingly, the series promotes not only a
deeper understanding of environmental processes and the evaluation of management
strategies, but also design and technology aimed at improving environmental quality.
Books focusing on the former are published in the subseries Environmental Science,
those focusing on the latter in the subseries Environmental Engineering.
Subodh Chandra Pal · Uday Chatterjee ·
Martiwi Diah Setiawati · Dipankar Ruidas
Editors

Remotely Sensed Rivers

in the Age of Anthropocene
Editors
Subodh Chandra Pal Uday Chatterjee
Department of Geography Department of Geography
The University of Burdwan Bhatter College, Dantan
Burdwan, West Bengal, India Kharagpur, West Bengal, India

Martiwi Diah Setiawati Dipankar Ruidas

United Nations University Department of Geography
Institute for the Advanced Study The University of Burdwan
of Sustainability (UNU-IAS) Burdwan, West Bengal, India
Tokyo, Japan
Research Center for Oceanography
National Research and Innovation Agency
of the Republic of Indonesia (BRIN)
Jakarta, Indonesia

ISSN 1863-5520 ISSN 1863-5539 (electronic)

Environmental Science and Engineering
ISBN 978-3-031-82310-7 ISBN 978-3-031-82311-4 (eBook)
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Dedicated to
Young Scholars in the Field of Hydrology,
Water Resource Management, Environmental
Science, Hazard and Disaster Management,
Geospatial Science, Geography, Social
Science and Sustainability Science and Policy
Makers.
Foreword

The Anthropocene epoch, yet to be formally recognized by the International Commis-

sion on Stratigraphy, connotes the part of the Holocene since the beginning of the
industrial revolution, during which the collective activities of human beings (Homo
sapiens) emerged as one of the ‘forcings’ capable of bringing substantial changes to
the dynamic equilibrium of the Earth System. Rivers essential elements of the earth
system experience profound impact of human interventions, manifested through
alterations of fluvial processes. Globally, more than 50% of the rivers have been
impounded through dams and reservoirs disrupting the normal flow regime. It has
been further reported that 25% of the world’s rivers run dry before reaching the ocean
due to the use of the fresh water resources within the basin. Connecting the moun-
tains and the sea, rivers form a continuum from headwater through river channels
to estuaries/lagoons and coastal waters and serve as the main conduit of sediment
and water movement and provide an open corridor for human-nature interactions.
The riparian zones, including flood plains, wetlands, and aquifers, offer a remarkable
variety of goods and services to human beings. Apart from providing unhindered and

vii
viii Foreword

easy access to drinking water, rivers facilitate movement through water transport and
support agriculture, crop production, energy generation, and other economic activi-
ties. All these functions are now disrupted to some degrees due to human intervention.
Moreover, being located at the lowest level of topography, water bodies receive all
the residues, natural and anthropogenic, that are generated within the river basin and
the terrestrial system. Growing urbanization is modifying the river ecology to such
an extent that a term, ‘Urban River Syndrome,’ emerged to indicate the extreme dete-
riorated condition of a river segment flowing through the urban areas. There is hardly
any ‘Room for River’ left for fluvial activities. Manipulation of the freshwater cycle
affects geomorphic processes, ecological functions, biodiversity, food and health
security, including climate regulations, undermining the resilience of terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems.
The rivers are now considered co-evolving, where natural and social processes
feed each other. A paradigm shift in river management is evident globally, with
increasing stress on the drainage basin approach. The thrust is now on drainage basin
security and its linkage to ecologic, economic, and social security. The emerging
practices address river management under four broad themes: rivers as ecosystems,
river basins as resource units, users of river resources, and governance. While the
first two items fall under the purview of natural sciences, analysis of the last two
themes is related to social sciences. A hydro-social approach is necessary to address
the problems of rivers and fresh water in this era of the Anthropocene.
This book titled ‘Remotely Sensed Rivers in the Age of Anthropocene’ is a
timely attempt to highlight the problems that the rivers are facing and the solu-
tions by applying remote sensing, GIS, and also modeling. A collection of 25 arti-
cles contributed by authors belonging to various disciplines from different countries
around the world, mainly Asia and Africa. Most of the articles are case-study-based,
reporting ground-level information. There are two sections. The first section on
‘Susceptibility’ consists of 15 articles. The issues dealt are sustainable river manage-
ment, problems of sand mining, mapping of flood susceptibility, water resource vari-
ability as linked to climate variability, flood risk zonation, soil erosion susceptibility,
heavy metals in aerosol and groundwater, urban riverine ecosystem, heavy metal
contamination of groundwater, river bank erosion, land use/land cover change, and
soil erosion using USLE and EPM models. The second section on sustainability
dealt with riparian ecology, flood risk assessment, river health monitoring, river
health assessment-seasonal and spatial, flood vulnerability analysis, human impact on
rivers, landscape, land cover, and forest disturbance to inform management models,
risk assessment of hydropower projects, assessment of human impacts, and water
quality monitoring. The editors of the book, Subodh Chandra Pal, Uday Chatterjee,
Martiwai Diah Setiawati, and Dipankar Ruidas, deserve high appreciation for under-
taking this commendable job. Selection of topics, identification of experts, quality
of paper, and sequencing of the articles manifest their scholarship and deep under-
standing of the subject. I am sure that this book will be a good addition to the body of
Foreword ix

existing knowledge and will be useful for students, academicians, professionals, and
all those interested in learning about the state of the rivers during the Anthropocene
and the scope of applying remote sensing and GIS to study the subject.

Dr. Srikumar Chattopadhyay

(Retd) Scientist G (Director Grade),
and Head, Resources Analysis Division
National Centre for Earth Science
Studies (CESS)
Thiruvananthapuram, India
Preface

Human activity has a geomorphic impact on the Earth that is now comparable to that
of the natural Earth in the age of Anthropocene. The perceived demands of human
populations are what lead to human disturbance in river systems of all kinds and
scales, but these needs must be in harmony with those of the river itself. To execute
activities like flooding and the creation of floodplains, for instance, the river needs its
own place. Through the construction of roads, embankments, dams, dredging, gravel
mining, urbanization, trails, ditches, channelization, in-channel agriculture, and the
constriction of channels by dikes, it is possible to intentionally alter the channel flow
and form with the effect of increasing or decreasing stream power. Every river in
the world reacts to the Anthropocene’s altered conditions as well as climate change,
and the observed variability over time is crucial to understanding how each river will
adjust, how complex it will be, and how sensitive it will be to the condition that must
be met in order to conserve water. The main study concerns are on the natural and
anthropogenic variables and processes involved in human alteration of the rivers,
as well as the projection of future geomorphic changes brought on by humans. It
should go without saying that a multidisciplinary strategy comprising geologists,
engineers, geomorphologists, social scientists and ecologists, would be necessary to
answer these study concerns. It is now time to heavily promote river science and
fluvial geomorphology across the world as the best venue to address such concerns.
In order to review the numerous aspects of the fluvial reaction to the many stimuli
in the age of Anthropocene, this work will do just that. Because large percentages of
the world’s people reside in floodplain areas and are directly or indirectly dependent
on the floodplain, human activities, river changes, habitat degradation, and climate
change can pose a significant danger to the world. The downstream morphology of the
river, in particular, is an essential aspect of flood control, hydrography, flood plains,
reservoirs, and the construction of various engineering works. Previous research has
shown that the bank-full channel cross-section area, width, depth, and discharge
improve the flow downstream of the river to accommodate the available discharge.
However, flooding may occur if the available discharge exceeds the capacity of the
bank-filled canal. The occurrence of floods in a drainage basin is closely related
to channel form. The management of the river basin is a must in order to protect

xi
xii Preface

human culture and civilization from this sort of threat. This book discusses the most
current developments in the study of rivers and water resources during the age of the
Anthropocene.
Geospatial information technologies have gotten a lot of attention in the Earth’s
environmental and social scientific study groups in recent decades because of their
effective capacity to solve and recognize global challenges and generate innovative
remedies for a healthy Earth and human civilization. This book divided into two
sections: Susceptibility (Part I) and Sustainability (Part II) these sections explore the
outcomes of advanced applications of Geospatial technology in river basin manage-
ment, including all types of modelling and mapping in a Geospatial environment
based on statistical, machine learning, and soft computing approaches to river basin
challenges and Sustainable management. This book seeks to promote synergistic
practices among scientists and technicians working in fields such as data mining
and machine learning by integrating spatial computational intelligence technology to
social and environmental concerns. We hope that this book will be of great interest to
a wide range of academics, biologists, geographers, remote sensing and GIS special-
ists, activists, meteorologists, and computational experts worldwide who are inter-
ested in geospatial artificial intelligence technologies in the environmental, human,
and social sciences.

Burdwan, West Bengal, India Subodh Chandra Pal

Medinipur, West Bengal, India Uday Chatterjee
Jakarta, Indonesia Martiwi Diah Setiawati
Burdwan, West Bengal, India Dipankar Ruidas
Acknowledgments

We want to thank the contributors, colleagues, researchers, and reviewers for their
valuable contributions and dedication in making the book Remotely Sensed Rivers in
the Age of Anthropocene possible. Their dedication, understanding, and assistance
have enhanced this project and enabled its success. Special acknowledgment is also
being given to our families for their constant support, comprehension, and motivation
during the sometimes difficult task of finishing this book. The constant motivation
we received was due to their patience and belief in us. I would like to express my
sincere appreciation to the outstanding publishing team at Springer for their guidance,
expertise, and unwavering dedication to excellence. Their meticulous editing, design,
and production efforts have turned this book into a detailed and accessible resource,
for which we are immensely thankful.

Burdwan, West Bengal, India Subodh Chandra Pal

Medinipur, West Bengal, India Uday Chatterjee
Jakarta, Indonesia Martiwi Diah Setiawati
Burdwan, West Bengal, India Dipankar Ruidas

xiii
Contents

Part I Susceptibility
1 Navigating the Anthropocene: Embracing Change
for Sustainable Fluvial Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Soufiane Haddout and K. L. Priya
2 Voices for River Rights: Monitoring the Effects of Sand
Mining in Ethiope River, Nigeria from 1991 to 2020 Using
Remote Sensing/GIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Angela Oyilieze Akanwa and Victor Iko-ojo Idakwo
3 Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Microwave Sentinel-1A
Data and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Lowland
Area of Keleghai River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Suman Das, Jatisankar Bandyopadhyay, Nirupam Acharyya,
and Saroj Maity
4 Water Resource Vulnerability Assessment to Climate
Variability: A Case Study of the Opak Watershed, Indonesia . . . . . . 61
Eko Pujiono, Wieke Herningtyas, Rajif Iryadi,
Muhammad Hadi Saputra, Nida Humaida,
Muhammad Bima Atmaja, Aditya Hani, Sutomo,
Jalma Giring Sukmawati, Reni Setyo Wahyuningtyas,
and Inda Dwi Solina
5 Zoning Flood Risk of Catchments Prone to Flooding
by Geographical Information Systems Analysis Approach . . . . . . . . . 85
Zahra Nik, Assefa M. Melesse, Kouros Yazdjerdi,
Hadi Abdolazimi, Seyed Masoud Soleimanpour,
and Mohammad Reza Nik

xv
xvi Contents

6 Application of MCDA-GIS Methods for Soil Erosion

Susceptibility Mapping in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,
Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Muralitharan Jothimani, Prafulla Kumar Panda, Leulalem Shano,
Ephrem Getahun, and Zerihun Dawit
7 Seasonal Variations and Distribution of Heavy Metals
in the Aerosol and Ground Water Around a Coal-Fired
Thermal Power Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Minal Gune, K Balakrishna, B. R. Manjunatha,
and Mohan Vanarotti
8 Assessment and Monitoring of Flood Susceptibility
Zones Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Model
and Geospatial Techniques in the Lakhimpur Block,
Lakhimpur District, Assam, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Manju Narzary, Praduyt Dey, Santanu Kumar Patnaik,
and Tilling Riming
9 Ramifications of Anthropogenic Activities on Urban Riverine
Ecosystem: A Study of Mithi River in Mumbai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Sujayita Bhattacharjee and Madhuri Sharma
10 Heavy Metals Contamination and Vulnerability in Vellore
District, Tamil Nadu, India—An Exclusive Study
on Historic and Current Scenarios of Toxic Heavy Metals
and Hydrochemistry Impacts on Groundwater Quality . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Vignesh Rajkumar Lakshmanan, Loganathan,
Challapudi Ajithraj, Kurella Paritosh,
and Saikam Venkata Sai Kumar
11 Geospatial Techniques for Mapping, Monitoring,
and Modeling Erosion of Jamuna River in the Shahjadpur
Upazila of Sirajganj District, Bangladesh to Support Risk
Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
K. M. Nafee, Mohammad Sofi Ullah, Md. Shakib Al Fahad,
Munira Nusrat, Md. Khayrul Islam Tuhin, and Sadman Ahmed
12 Soil Erosion Estimation Using the E.P.M Model
in the Ouaouizeght River Basin—Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
Khalid El Haddaoui, Abderrahmane Jadouane,
Badreddine Ennassiri, and Mohamed Mouhiddine
Contents xvii

13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping,

Monitoring and Modeling Environmental Changes in Segara
Anakan Due to Heavy Sedimentation in the Downstream
of Citanduy River-Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
Bayu Prayudha, Yaya I. Ulumuddin, Vincentius Siregar,
Atriyon Julzarika, Lilik B. Prasetyo, Syamsul B. Agus, Suyadi,
Suyarso, Praditya Avianto, Nurjamin, Riza A. Pasaribu,
Muhammad Faisal Rachmansyah, and Arif Seno Adji
14 Flood Susceptibility Analysis in Kollidam Lower Watershed
of Cuddalore District Leveraging a Sophisticated
GIS-Enhanced Frequency Ratio Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
Baranidharan Sathyanarayanan, Vasudevan Sivaprakasam,
Sivaranjan Periyasami, and Pravinraj Sambath
15 Comparing Soil Erosion Rate Predictions Using USLE
Method Based on Conventional and Remote Sensing Data
Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357
I Wayan Sandi Adnyana, Abd. Rahman As-syakur,
I Wayan Nuarsa, Moh. Saifulloh, and Martiwi Diah Setiawati

Part II Sustainability
16 Enhancing River Sustainability: A Comprehensive Approach
to Riparian Ecology Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
Jalma Giring Sukmawati, Sutomo, Muhammad Hadi Saputra,
Eko Pujiono, Nida Humaida, Aditya Hani,
Muhammad Bima Atmaja, Rajif Iryadi, Wieke Herningtyas,
Reni Setyo Wahyuningtyas, and Inda Dwi Solina
17 Flood Risk Assessment of the Mand River Basin,
Chhattisgarh, Using GIS-Integrated Multi-criteria Decision
Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
Pooja Patel, Rohan Kar, and Arindam Sarkar
18 River Health Monitoring and Mapping for Environmental
Sustainability Using Geospatial Techniques: A Case of River
Ganga in Patna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453
Abdul Quadir, Mohammad Salman, Safiullah Khan,
and Zalina Samadi
xviii Contents

19 Geospatial Mapping of River Health Assessment: A Study

Case of Spatial and Seasonal Monitoring at Sumbawa Island
Watersheds, Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483
Hedi Indra Januar, Eko Pujiono, Sutomo, Relawan Kuswandi,
Muhammad Hadi Saputra, Hery Kurniawan, Etik Erna Wati Hadi,
Nida Humaida, Izhamil Hidayah, and Jalma Giring Sukmawati
20 Flood Vulnerability Analysis Using Multi-Sensor Satellite
Imagery-Based on Multi-Parameter to Support National
Urban Flood Resilience Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505
Mohammad Ardha, Rizky Faristyawan,
Khalifah Insan Nur Rahmi, Kurnia Ulfa, and Restu Wardani
21 An Assessment of Human Impact on the River Godavari:
A Critical Review on Worship to Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541
Rajasekhar Reddy Muttana and Manoj Mitra Kasibhotla
22 Quantifying Landscape Metrics Land Cover and Forest
Disturbance to Inform Management Models in the Tropical
Basin, Bedugul, Bali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559
Rajif Iryadi, Sutomo, Muhammad Bima Atmaja,
Muhammad Hadi Saputra, Eko Pujiono, Nida Humaida,
Aditya Hani, Jalma Giring Sukmawati, Wieke Herningtyas,
and Reni Setyo Wahyuningtyas
23 Risk Assessments of Hydro-power Projects Along the Nagavali
River, Orissa-Andhra Pradesh, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583
Shreya Bandyopadhyay
24 An Assessment of Human Impact on Tropical Rivers:
A Critical Review on Worship to Responsibility, Case of India . . . . . 607
Sharduli Joshi and Prajakta Chakravarty
25 Satellite-Based Monitoring of Water Quality
in Mukutmanipur Dam: A Google Earth Engine
Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 637
Surajit Dey and Abira Dutta Roy
Chapter 13
Land Use/Land Cover Change Model
for Mapping, Monitoring and Modeling
Environmental Changes in Segara
Anakan Due to Heavy Sedimentation
in the Downstream of Citanduy
River-Indonesia

Bayu Prayudha , Yaya I. Ulumuddin , Vincentius Siregar ,

Atriyon Julzarika , Lilik B. Prasetyo , Syamsul B. Agus , Suyadi,
Suyarso , Praditya Avianto , Nurjamin, Riza A. Pasaribu ,
Muhammad Faisal Rachmansyah, and Arif Seno Adji

Abstract Water erosion in upland riverine areas leads to sedimentation in the

lowlands, which also affects certain habitats in the estuarine ecosystem. The alter-
ation of the estuarine ecosystem has affected the shifting of mangrove habitat in
Segara Anakan Lagoon (SAL). Heavy sedimentation has impacted this area as a
result of complex natural and anthropogenic activities that are causing soil erosion

B. Prayudha (B) · Y. I. Ulumuddin · Suyarso · P. Avianto · Nurjamin · A. S. Adji

Research Center for Oceanography - National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Jl. Pasir
Putih I, Ancol Timur, 14430 Jakarta, Indonesia
e-mail: [email protected]
Y. I. Ulumuddin
e-mail: [email protected]
Suyarso
e-mail: [email protected]
P. Avianto
e-mail: [email protected]
Nurjamin
e-mail: [email protected]
A. S. Adji
e-mail: [email protected]
V. Siregar · S. B. Agus · R. A. Pasaribu
Departmemt of Marine Science and Technology, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences - IPB
University, Jl. Raya Dramaga, Kampus IPB, Dramaga Bogor 16680, Jawa Barat, Indonesia
e-mail: [email protected]
S. B. Agus
e-mail: [email protected]
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025 307
S. C. Pal et al. (eds.), Remotely Sensed Rivers in the Age of Anthropocene,
Environmental Science and Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-82311-4_13
308 B. Prayudha et al.

in the Citanduy River’s upstream area. Sedimentation causes new land to emerge
gradually, reducing water area. It had also altered the environment, particularly in
the western part of the SAL. It is responsible for the degradation of critical habitats
such as marine biota and mangrove forests. Monitoring is essential for providing
policymakers and other stakeholders with an accurate picture of the situation when
managing their area and its resources. With spatial-based information, users can
easily understand a comprehensive picture of phenomena that occur in a specific
area. This study used the LULCC (Land Use/Land Cover Change) model to predict
a shift in the lagoon habitat. The model revealed that the change in landform has
mostly contributed to the alteration of mangrove composition and its distribution in
the study area. The sedimentation process has led to the development of new lands,
creating a low-saline environment that fosters the growth of invasive plant species.
Further, invasive plant species will replace mangrove forest in the majority of the
lagoon water area. The model predicted that the lagoon’s water area would shrink
by 57% over the next five decades.

Keywords Landuse/landcover change · Spatial model · Environmental changes ·

Sedimentation · Segara Anakan

13.1 Introduction

Water erosion, pollution, and seasonal flooding are typical hazards in riverine areas
(Talbot et al. 2018; Tockner and Stanford 2002). Water erosion in upland riverine
areas leads to sedimentation in the lowlands. Massive development in the hinterland

R. A. Pasaribu
e-mail: [email protected]
A. Julzarika
Research Center for Limnology - National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Jl. Raya
Jakarta-Bogor No.Km.46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Jawa Barat, Indonesia
e-mail: [email protected]
L. B. Prasetyo
Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry and
Environment, IPB University, Jl. Raya Dramaga, Kampus IPB, Dramaga, Bogor 16680, Jawa
Barat, Indonesia
e-mail: [email protected]
Suyadi
Research Center for Ecology and Ethnobiology - National Research and Innovation Agency
(BRIN), Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor No.Km.46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Jawa Barat, Indonesia
e-mail: [email protected]
M. F. Rachmansyah
Center for Coastal Ecological Research Studies, FPIK UNDIP, Jl. Prof. Jacub Rais, Tembalang,
Semarang 50275, Jawa Tengah, Indonesia
e-mail: [email protected]
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 309

area has reinforced the erosion and sedimentation process. The extensive sedimenta-
tion in the lowlands or coastal areas leads to environmental changes, which also affect
specific habitats (Thrush et al. 2004; Gonzalez Rodriguez et al. 2023). Providing an
accurate picture of the situation is crucial for making informed decisions to antic-
ipate this hazard. Geospatial technology has the potential to help with this situa-
tion because it provides spatial information. Therefore, it enables the acquisition
of comprehensive and easily comprehensible information. Moreover, it facilitates
the investigation, monitoring, and prediction of future environmental changes (Daud
et al. 2024; Bhunia and Shit 2022; Zhang 2020).
Numerous studies have employed geospatial technology to monitor and model
ecosystem alteration. Bagaria et al. (2021) utilized the LULCC (Land Use and
Land Cover Change) model for monitoring and predicting the changes in the estu-
arine ecosystem. The variables of the model highlighted the socially driven factors,
including the distance from transportation infrastructure, distance from aquaculture,
distance from settlements, and population density. Caiza-Morales et al. (2024) used
a remote sensing model and cloud computing to monitor the changes in Ecuador’s
Guaya estuarine that affected mangrove loss between 2018 and 2022. They detected
the mangrove cover using multi-temporal SAR satellite images of Sentinel-1 and
Sentinel-2, combined with machine learning processes. Wang et al. (2021) combined
the MaxEnt model and the Dyna-CLUE landcover change model to predict changes
in mangrove habitat along China’s coastline. The model revealed the environmental-
driven factors that contributed to the habitat changes. Li et al. (2023) discovered a
comparable outcome in the mangrove habitat of Beibu Gulf, China, which indicated
that salinity and elevation were the primary factors influencing the distribution of
mangrove tree species. However, most of the studies never used the variable that
linked the riverine process with habitat alteration in the estuarine ecosystem.
The Citanduy River in West Java, Indonesia, is a good example of water erosion,
which causes heavy sedimentation in the coastal area, changing the landscape,
geomorphology, vegetation cover, and socioeconomic status of the people as a
response to natural changes (Malawani et al. 2020; Lukas 2017). The Citanduy River
meanders from Mount Cakrabuana in West Java, passing through forests, plantations,
paddy fields, and villages. This river flows into the Segara Anakan Lagoon in Central
Java, which has two outlets and connects to the Indian Ocean in the south. Because
of river erosion, one of the outlets has become shallow as a result of sedimentation,
clogging the river flow to the ocean. As a result, sedimentation increases and new
islands form, narrowing the lagoon (Cahyo et al. 2024; Lukas 2017).
Heavy sedimentation in Segara Anakan Lagoon has reduced lagoon water levels
by up to 92% in 2020 compared to the early nineteenth century, or around 1857/1858.
Water erosion, which causes sedimentation, is first detected in the age when land
transformation occurred, converting virgin forests into plantations (Prayudha et al.
2023; Lukas 2017). On the one hand, the new islands formed in the lagoon provide
new habitat for mangrove trees. On the other hand, as new islands grow in size,
they block the tidal flow from the ocean into the lagoon, preventing freshwater from
the river from flowing easily to the ocean. As a result, water salinity decreases and
may even reach zero. The geomorphic and water salinity conditions, as well as forest
310 B. Prayudha et al.

cutting, have altered the mangrove vegetation community. Understory (Acanthus spp.
and Derris trifoliata) and palm mangrove (Nypa frutican) replace mangrove trees
and dominate the habitat (Prayudha et al. 2023; Ardli and Yani 2020; Nordhaus et al.
2019). This process appears to be ongoing, with these mangrove species becoming
invasive and encroaching on mangrove forest.
Segara Anakan Lagoon and the surrounding land have changed and continue to
transform, with the lagoon water narrowing and the mangrove forests converting into
bushes of understory mangroves (Prayudha et al. 2023). People adapt to these changes
by transforming their livelihoods. They used to rely heavily on lagoon fishing, but
now some of them have turned to farming. Many young people choose to relocate to
cities or even abroad in search of work rather than remain in their changing homeland
(Ardli et al. 2022; Ulya and Sanjatmiko 2018; Reichel et al. 2009).
The government is aware of the situation in Segara Anakan, but the response
appears to be too slow to address the changes. Furthermore, the problem is complex,
multifaceted, and has persisted for centuries. With the accumulation of knowledge
in the Segara Anakan literature, as well as the advancement of geospatial technology
and remote sensing, the complex issues of Segara Anakan Lagoon could be addressed
more effectively. We propose using the Land Use/Land Cover Change Model to map,
monitor, and predict the alteration of mangrove habitat in the estuarine environment,
which is affected by changes in landform due to sedimentation. This model can
reveal not only the problem’s underlying causes, but also predictions for alternative
measures and how to evaluate the results. For example, we may be aware of the
primary influences on mangrove community formation and distribution. We can
predict how it will change in the absence of intervention, or we can examine the
scenario to find the best solution that achieves the desired result. Here, we would like
to introduce the Land Use/Land Cover Change Model, which is a geospatial technique
for mapping, monitoring, and modelling riverine hazards to aid risk management.

13.2 Material and Methods

This study employed spatial modelling to analyze and examine the changes in
mangrove communities in SAL, based on the LULCC framework suggested by
Prayudha et al. (2023), which was adapted from Moulds et al. (2015). This frame-
work consists of three main steps to simulate a shifting in mangrove communities,
including: (1) data processing, (2) predictive modelling, and (3) spatial allocation
modelling (Fig. 13.1). Data processing consisted of change detection using multi-
temporal mangrove maps, preparing scenarios and selecting the explanatory vari-
ables. Multi-temporal mangrove maps were used as the primary dataset to illustrate
the shifting pattern of mangrove distribution. The pattern was reported in the tran-
sition matrix which calculated the change area of each land cover types. Several
thematic maps informing environmental condition of SAL was used as the explana-
tory variables to develop a predictive model which elucidated its relationship with
the mangrove distribution pattern. The variables were selected according to various
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 311

Fig. 13.1 The workflow of study

references identifying the environment state in relation to the mangrove composition

in SAL (Prayudha et al. 2023). Furthermore, the predictive model was served as the
input for simulating changes by employing a spatial allocation model (Prayudha et al.
2023; Moulds et al. 2015). The simulation was conducted on different scenarios for
predicting the shifting of mangrove communities in the future. The scenarios included
BAU (Business As Usual) and conservation measures.

13.2.1 Data Processing

This study employed multi-temporal Landsat satellite images to examine the changes
in mangrove ecosystems over a span of thirty years, with observations made at ten-
year intervals in 1990 (t0), 2000 (t1), 2010 (t2), and 2020 (t3). As reported by
prior studies (Prayudha et al. 2023; Ardli and Yani 2020; Nordhaus et al. 2019), the
mangrove dynamics in SAL are described by the encroachment of nypa and under-
story into the forest interior. Therefore, the mangrove map used in this study includes
distinct life-form classes as defined by Saenger (2002), Duke (2011), and FAO (2007).
These classes consisted of trees, nipah, and understorey. In this study, a mixed class
is included to reflect the mangrove community, where the composition coverage is
not dominated by a single of the three lifeforms. Furthermore, the remaining land
cover classes are further classified into two additional groups: water bodies and other
types of non-mangrove covers. The surface reflectance image product was used for
generating cloud-free image refered to Stuhler et al. (2016). According to Prayudha
et al. (2024), three spectral indices, namely EMI, NDWI, and AMMI, may effec-
tively differentiate between three different mangrove communities. However, none
of them can provide confident accuracy for the Nypa class. They discovered that
the RF classification model yielded higher accuracy for the Nypa class compared to
using only single spectral indices. Therefore, our research integrated those indices
312 B. Prayudha et al.

with RF classification to generate a mangrove map that includes several life-form

groups.
The selection of environmental variables for this research was based on a compre-
hensive assessment of both the characteristics of the mangroves and the state of
their habitat in the SAL. Holtermann et al. (2009) observed a gradual decrease in
salinity from the eastern to the western regions of SAL, indicating geographical vari-
ation. The significant volume of discharge from the Citanduy River has resulted in
the setting up of a low salinity environment in the western region. Conversely, the
salinity distribution in the eastern region is mostly affected by the influx of seawater
from the sea inlet. The variation in the salinity has influenced the composition of the
mangrove communities. The tree community in the eastern portion of SAL tends to
adapt to the high-saline conditions easily. While, the dominance of Nypa and under-
storey communities in the western region is attributed to the low-saline environment
(Nordhaus et al. 2019). The emergence of new land through sedimentation has also
played a role in the composition of mangroves in the western region by restricting
the inflow of seawater and affecting the frequency of flooding (Prayudha et al. 2023;
Lukas 2017). The frequency of flooding is closely associated with the elevation of
the land, with lower elevations experiencing more frequent flooding compared to
higher elevations. Using the aforementioned states, we have identified and compiled
various physical variables, which are presented in Table 13.1.
The landform map used in this research was generated through a process of manual
delineation and visual analysis of multitemporal Landsat imagery from 1990 to 2020
within 10-year intervals. The landform is classified into two main categories: water
and land. This accommodates the research’s necessity to observe the relationship
between changes in the distribution of mangrove communities and the expansion of
land followed by declining of water areas.
The salinity maps were acquired from a prior investigation utilizing hydrodynamic
modelling carried out by Holtermann et al. (2009). According to this study, the distri-
bution of salinity was observed in two distinct seasonal variations: the dry season,
which occurs in July and August, and the wet season, which occurs in February
and March. The distribution of salinity was obtained by combining both data sets
in this study. To our knowledge, only this data is appropriate for providing precise
information on the distribution of salinity in LSA.
This study calculated the distance between pixels at a specific position and refer-
ence objects to create raster distance maps. The mouth of the Citanduy River, the
seawater inlets, and the shoreline represent the reference objects. This process gener-
ated several raster maps with each pixel indicating the distance (in meters). This
technique was used to determine how these objects affect mangrove distribution.
The spatial principle of Tobler (1959) states that “everything is related to every-
thing else, but near things are more related than distant things.” This fundamental
geography law states that the relationship between objects in space increases as their
distance decreases and vice versa.
The raster digital terrain model (DTM) was used as variable for representing
its relationship with the flooding period. This data was obtained from PT. Citra
Bhumi Indonesia which is generated by using a combination of various satellite
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 313

Table 13.1 Physical variables as the predictor for explaining the shifting on mangrove extent and
its composition in SAL
Code Variable Data type Value Method Source
ef_001 Landform Multi-temporal 1: Water Visual Landsat TM
maps of landform body interpretation and OLI of
2: Land 1990, 2000,
area of 2010, 2020
2020
3: Land
area of
2010
4: Lahan
area of
2000
5: Land
area of
1990
ef_002 Salinity Salinity map Salinity Hydrodynamics Holtermann
content content in model et al. (2009)
ppm
ef_003 Freshwater Proximity map Distance Proximity distance Landsat TM
input (distance from the value in and OLI of
freshwater inlet of meters 1990, 2000,
Citanduy river) 2010, 2020
ef_004 Seawater Proximity map Distance Proximity distance Landsat TM
input (distance from the value in and OLI of
seawater inlet) meters 1990, 2000,
2010, 2020
ef_005 Inundation Proximity map Distance Proximity distance Landsat TM
period (distance from the value in and OLI of
shoreline) meters 1990, 2000,
2010, 2020
ef_006 Digital Terrain Elevation Combination of Secondary
Model (DTM) value in stereo photo and data of 1990
meters D-InSAR and 2020

imagery sources through stereo photography and D-InSAR methods (Julzarika 2021;
Julzarika et al. 2021).

13.2.2 Predictive Modelling

The relationship between environmental factors and mangrove community distribu-

tion was represented by using suitability maps, which are raster maps that indicate
the probability that a particular class occupies a given pixel. This study utilized
314 B. Prayudha et al.

three models—rpart (recursive partitioning), rf (random forest), and glm (general-

ized linear model)—to represent both non-linear and linear models, respectively. The
complexity of activities and processes in nature often makes it difficult to explain
the relationships that occur, but non-linear models can produce accurate predictions
(Liang et al. 2022). The ROC (Receiver Operator Characteristic) method was used
to test and select the best of the three models based on the AUC (Area Under Curve)
value. An AUC value of one (1) suggests that the model demonstrates a perfect fit
in its ability to predict the result. On the contrary, when the AUC value reaches 0.5,
it suggests that the model’s ability to forecast the result is inadequate (random fit)
(Moulds et al. 2015).

13.2.3 Spatial Allocation Modelling

This research employed the CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at
Small regional extent) spatial allocation model to predict the placement of pixels
for various mangrove classes. The model took into account the changing trends of
each class and the suitability of the land. The trends of change for each class of
mangrove community were determined by using linear extrapolation based on the
calculation data of change areas in the transition matrix extracted from multitemporal
mangrove maps. Subsequently, we employed a land suitability model to guide the
allocation of pixels from each distinct mangrove class. A larger probability value in
the land suitability model indicates a greater probability of pixels in the same class
occupying a specific space. Otherwise, pixels belonging to other classes that have
a higher probability of being suitable will occupy this space (Moulds et al. 2015).
The entire modelling process was conducted using R 4.3.0 software and the Lulcc
library.

13.2.4 Scenario Simulation

This research carried out simulations based on certain scenarios to provide an

overview of the distribution of mangrove composition in the future so that it can
be used as a consideration for SAL management. There have been and are ongoing
efforts to manage mangroves in LSA. Conservation projects were carried out from
1990 to the mid-2000s. The conservation projects aimed to rehabilitate mangroves
and maintain the lagoon waters by periodically dredging sediments (Prayudha et al.
2023; ADB 2006). After this period, certain efforts ceased due to their significant
financial requirements. Mangrove rehabilitation, one of the ongoing efforts, operates
on a small scale through government programs, corporate social responsibility (CSR)
funding for environmental enhancement, and voluntary efforts from various commu-
nities concerned with mangroves. Therefore, this research conducted simulations
with three distinct possible scenarios:
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 315

(1) For the next ten years (2030), maintain the composition of mangroves and other
covers, including the water area (S1).
(2) Carry out mangrove rehabilitation efforts by planting tree species on potential
land covered by understorey (S2).
(3) As well as, making efforts to maintain the area of the lagoon waters, especially
in the Western region, for the next ten years (S3).
In the spatial allocation model, we conducted the scenarios by interrupting the
trend of land cover change in the transition matrix. The interruption in the transition
matrix will also change the trend pattern for extrapolation. This will lead to the
formulation of distinct future projections. In each scenario, we added the projected
mangrove map for 2030 (t4) as an input to the transition matrix. We generated
the projected mangrove map by tailoring the area size of specific land covers to
each scenario. In the S1 scenario, we generated the projected mangrove map by
keeping the area of each land cover consistent with the final map from 2020. In
the S2 scenario, we generated the projected mangrove map by reinstating the 2020
understorey area with mangrove tree cover. Furthermore, in the S3 scenario, we
generated the projected mangrove map by retaining the water bodies area from the
last state in 2020 exclusively.

13.3 Results and Discussion

13.3.1 Temporal Distribution of Mangrove in SAL

Figure 13.2 depicts changes in the distribution of mangrove composition over three
decades, specifically from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, tree and mixed communities
dominated the LSA’s mangroves, accounting for 36.21% (3,168.81 ha) and 35.95%
(3,146.22 ha), respectively (Table 13.2). Nipah and understorey accounted for
23.09% (2,020.41 ha) and 4.76% (416.52 ha), respectively. The results showed that
the tree community continued to decrease until the last observation (2020), leaving
1,875.87 ha, or 59% of the baseline in 1990. During the observation period, the
understorey area increased to 3,164.85 ha and became dominant in 2020, accounting
for 35.40% of total mangroves in the LSA. Compared to 1990 observations, the
distribution of understory has increased by 760% until 2020. Nipah experienced a
decrease until 2010, but then increased to 1,746.27 ha in 2020.
Changes in mangrove composition in LSA are evident in the West and Central
regions (Fig. 13.2). Understorey was increasingly dominant in both regions,
displacing other mangrove cover, particularly by 2020. In 2020, the remaining tree
community was distributed in the eastern part of LSA only. In contrast to nypa, its
distribution in 2020 was concentrated in the Central region. In the 1990s, Nypa was
abundant in the West, but it changed to non-mangrove cover in the following decades.
Sedimentation-induced formation of new land in the west significantly influences
316 B. Prayudha et al.

Fig. 13.2 Multi-temporal mangrove maps of SAL, top-left (1990), top-right (2000), bottom-left
(2010) and bottom-right (2020)

Table 13.2 Mangrove composition in SAL over three decades

Mangrove 1990 (%) 2000 (%) 2010 (%) 2020 (%)
class
Trees 3,168.81 36.21 2,667.06 32.38 2,347.47 27.03 1,875.87 20.98
Nypa 2,020.41 23.09 1,616.94 19.63 1,217.52 14.02 1,746.27 19.53
Mixed 3,146.22 35.95 2,838.06 34.45 3,234.51 37.24 2,153.97 24.09
Understorey 416.52 4.76 1,115.19 13.54 1,885.41 21.71 3,164.85 35.40
Source GIS processing

changes in mangrove cover (Nordhaus et al. 2019; Lukas 2017; Ardli and Wolff
2008).
The development of new land has resulted in a reduction of water bodies (Ihsan
et al. 2019; Lukas 2017; Ardli and Wolff 2008; Olive 1997; Romimohtarto et al.
1991). The new land creates mudflats that are ideal for mangrove habitats (Suyadi
et al. 2019; Meijer et al. 2021). However, between 2010 and 2020, nipah and under-
storey were found to be more common, replacing trees and mixed communities
(Fig. 13.2). This is most likely due to environmental conditions caused by low
salinity and land clearing activities. Nypa frutican and understorey thrive in low
salinity environments (Nordhaus et al. 2019; Ukpong 2015; Joshi et al. 2006). The
Citanduy River’s large discharge and the presence of new land limit seawater input,
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 317

resulting in the area’s low salinity. Furthermore, due to these environmental condi-
tions and the availability of land as a result of past pond activities and logging, the
understorey grows faster than other mangrove communities (Ardli and Yani 2020;
Nordhaus et al. 2019; Hinrichs et al. 2009).

13.3.2 Predictive Modelling

The relationship between environmental conditions and mangrove distribution

explains the zonation pattern in SAL. Therefore, any changes in environmental
conditions will impact the dynamics of mangrove distribution. This research used
this relationship model as input to predict changes in the distribution of mangrove
composition in SAL. The statistical regression test revealed significant contributions
from almost all explanatory variables, with p-values <0.05 (5%) (see Table 13.3).
It demonstrates that over 95% of the data can explain the relationship between the
distribution of mangrove communities and the environmental variables used. Among
all the variables, the landform (ef_001) had the most influence on the mangrove
distribution, as indicated by the greatest coefficient value in all mangrove classes
(Table 13.3). The negative value in the coefficient indicates that mangroves tend to
be distributed in low-valued landforms. According to Table 13.1, the lowest value
is the water body, followed gradually by the newly formed land with the higher
value. Therefore, the distribution of mangrove communities tends to occur in the
land adjacent to the water body, as this is their natural habitat.
All mangrove classes also have high coefficient values for the salinity (ef_002)
and elevation (ef_006) variables, respectively that follow the landform. However,
the understorey class presents a different situation, in which the coefficient value
of ef_006 exceeds that of ef_002. This indicates that, in addition to the landform,
elevation plays a more significant role in determining the distribution of understorey
than salinity does. It provides evidence that understorey communities tend to grow
within the margin area of mangroves (Van Loon et al. 2016). Others similar studies

Table 13.3 The regression coefficient of each explanatory variable

Variable code Trees Nypa Mixed Understorey
ef_001 −8.764e-01*** −2.149e-01*** −3.236e-01*** −5.894e-01***
ef_002 8.720e-02*** 4.816e-02*** 2.521e-02*** 3.189e-02***
ef_003 1.585e-04*** −4.180e-05*** −2.200e-05*** −1.461e-04***
ef_004 −1.256e-04*** 1.259e-04*** 7.931e-05*** 2.027e-04***
ef_005 −2.214e-03*** −1.059e-04 −1.595e-04* −3.046e-04***
ef_006 7.335e-02*** −4.422e-03 3.076e-02* 6.618e-02 ***
Significance: p-value < 0,.01 ‘***’; p-value < 0.01 ‘**’; p-value < 0.05 ‘*’; p-value < 0.1 ‘.’; p-value
<1‘’
Source Statistical analysis
318 B. Prayudha et al.

have also revealed that topography or elevation and salinity significantly contribute
to the habitat suitability of mangrove including understorey species such as Achantus
ilicifolius (Li et al. 2023; Wang et al. 2021).
According to the ROC test, the AUC value of rf in each class was better than
the linear (glm) and other non-linear (rpart) models for predicting the distribution
of mangrove cover (Fig. 13.3). The rf model’s AUC values in all mangrove classes
ranged between 0.7724 and 0.9475. Moreover, the mangrove tree has a confident
AUC value of 0.8634. This number is quite similar to another study using the MaxEnt
model that has an AUC value of 0.869 for mangrove tree species (Li et al. 2023). In
contrast, Nypa has the lowest AUC value for all models. The glm and rpart models
had AUC values close to 0.5, indicating that the Nypa prediction was less accurate
because they tend to be random (random fit). On the other hand, rf has a higher value,
thus indicating excellent performance for predicting Nypa.
Among the other mangrove classes, Nypa has the lowest AUC value because
Nypa distributions are more random than other communities. Figure 13.4 shows that
Nypa has a tendency to be present in several small parts of east SAL, as indicated
by a convincing probability value (>0.6 or 60%), even though the area has high
salinity. The distribution of Nypa in the west SAL region clearly has a relatively
high probability along land and water borders. This demonstrates that low salinity
plays an important role in determining Nypa distribution. The low salinity factor also
appears to influence the distribution of understorey, which is clearly visible from the
high probability values in the west and central SAL regions. This condition is in
accordance with previous findings that analyzed the relationship between salinity

Fig. 13.3 ROC test graph on several land cover suitability prediction models
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 319

Fig. 13.4 The suitability model for mangrove land cover in SAL indicates variations in the
probability value of each class through gradations of color differences

levels and variations in mangrove types in SAL (Nordhaus et al. 2019). Because
of the Citanduy River and Nusakambangan Island, the west SAL region has low
salinity. This is because sea water can’t get in through the narrower lagoon inlet
compared to the east region (Hariati et al. 2019; Holtermann et al. 2009). The eastern
region clearly appears to have a higher probability of mangrove tree distribution.
The study’s combination of environmental variables appears to influence variations
in the distribution patterns of mangrove communities in SAL.

13.3.3 Spatial Allocation Modelling

Spatial modeling reveals that the distribution of mangrove communities changes

under BAU (Business As Usual), with Nypa and understorey becoming more domi-
nant. In 1990, mangrove trees still dominated the LSA, along with mixed commu-
nities and water bodies, each around 21% (Table 13.4). However, in 2020, the tree
community accounted for only 12.48% of the area, and projections indicate a decrease
to 3.54% by 2070. In 1990, the understory only reached 2.81%. Then, it increased
to a predicted 44.83% in the next five decades (Table 13.4). Similarly, projections
indicate that Nypa will rise to 20.11% in 2070.
The changes are clearly evident in the western and central regions. The mixed
community was replaced by the Nypa and understorey communities (Fig. 13.5). The
model illustrates the existence of a mixed community in the Central LSA region,
320 B. Prayudha et al.

Table 13.4 The percentage of mangrove area between 1990 and 2070
Year Trees Nypa Mixed Understorey Water bodies Non-mangrove
1990 21.40 13.64 21.25 2.81 21.94 18.96
2000 18.06 10.54 19.34 7.53 17.80 26.73
2010 16.13 7.22 20.54 12.54 17.49 26.08
2020 12.48 11.20 14.45 20.96 15.15 25.76
2030 10.41 14.52 6.28 29.09 13.99 25.71
2040 8.52 16.69 0.47 36.46 12.75 25.11
2050 6.67 16.61 0.47 40.27 12.15 23.84
2060 3.54 18.08 0.47 44.41 11.20 22.31
2070 3.54 20.11 0.47 44.83 8.75 22.31
Source Modelling

gradually supplanted by non-mangrove vegetation, and finally settled by understorey

vegetation. According to Ardli and Yani (2020), Nordhaus et al. (2019), and Hinrichs
et al. (2009), the understorey rapidly covers land openings. However, the tree commu-
nity tends to remain present in the eastern region for the next fifty years, until 2070.
The increase in understorey vegetation suggests a decline in the overall condition
of the mangrove forests in SAL. Moreover, the decrease in function, productivity,
structure, and species composition signifies that forest degradation has taken place
(Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity 2009; Nordhaus et al. 2019;
Hinrichs et al. 2009) observed a decline in structure and biomass (above ground
biomass) in SAL mangroves. We observed the condition in the western and central
parts of SAL, where the understorey is expanding and the number of mangrove trees
is declining.
The prediction result demonstrates a gradual decline in water bodies, particularly
in the western area (Fig. 13.5). The reduced area of water bodies has been replaced
by the Nypa cover. This indicates that the area is still flooded, creating favorable
conditions for Nypa growth. Nypa is typically well-adapted to environments with low
salinity and shallow waterways (Numbere 2021, 2019). In addition, Numbere (2019)
discovered that the rapid growth of Nypa in shallow water channels restricted the flow
of water into the mangrove area located behind them. This leads to a decline in water
quality, consequently disturbing the health of other mangroves. Additionally, Nypa’s
ability to efficiently utilize nutrients that other mangrove trees do not utilize leads to
a higher growth rate (Numbere 2019). The model results also show that Nypa grows
along water channels in the west and central regions, while the understory covers
the back zone. The combination of these environmental conditions, including low
salinity and rising land elevation caused by sedimentation, poses challenges for the
growth of mangrove trees, preventing them from effectively competing with Nypa
and understorey vegetation.
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 321

Fig. 13.5 Spatial model of mangrove distribution in SAL

13.3.4 Scenario Simulation

If we maintain the current composition of mangrove cover in SAL over the next five
decades, the simulation result of the first scenario (S1) indicates minimal changes
in mangrove cover (Fig. 13.6). Table 13.5 shows that the tree community has a
percentage area that is twice as large as the BAU prediction for the next five
decades. Furthermore, in the next five decades, the mixed community will still have
a percentage area that is almost equal to the tree mangrove. This is distinct from the
BAU simulation, which predicts a percentage area of less than one percent of the
mixed community. The water area also continues to decline, but slower than BAU.
The change did not double from the first year of the 2020 to 2030 scenario interven-
tion. Similarly, there was an increase in the understorey area compared to the BAU
simulation. According to the S1 scenario simulation, if we try to keep the area of
all land cover the same for ten years (2020–2030), we can slow down the loss of
tree, mixed, and water body communities and still be able to handle more understory
plants growing.
Currently, multiple stakeholders in SAL can execute this effort. The Asian Devel-
opment Bank (ADB) provided financial support for the conservation of mangroves
and lagoons in Segara Anakan between 1996 and 2006, as documented by Dhar-
mawan et al. (2016) and ADB (2006). During this period, the project regularly
dredged the lagoon waters to prevent sediment accumulation and maintain the size
322 B. Prayudha et al.

Fig. 13.6 Simulation maps of the changes of mangrove cover (S1)

Table 13.5 The percentage of mangrove area (S1)

Year Tree Nypa Mixed Understorey Water bodies Non-Mangrove
2030 13.00 9.67 14.86 21.34 15.37 25.77
2040 11.45 8.78 12.89 26.60 14.66 25.62
2050 9.98 9.00 10.57 30.87 14.11 25.47
2060 9.28 9.18 7.39 35.56 13.58 25.02
2070 7.96 9.37 7.39 37.93 12.70 24.65
Source Modelling

of the water bodies. Similarly, conservation efforts are implemented to preserve

the area of mangrove forests. As a result, the decline of both lagoon waters and
mangrove cover was slower during this period (Prayudha et al. 2023). Despite the
cessation of project activities, numerous community groups remain committed to
mangrove conservation. This community group initiated a planting project to promote
ecosystem rehabilitation in Segara Anakan. The private sector also backed this
group’s activities through corporate social responsibility (CSR) programs. The Patra
Krida Wana Lestari (PKWL) community initiated the mangrove planting activity,
which received support from the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) program
of PT Pertamina UP IV Cilacap (Hariyadi and Madduppa 2018). The endeavor led
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 323

to the establishment of a mangrove arboretum tourist park located in Ujung Alang

Village, Kampung Laut District, Cilacap.
In the second scenario (S2), the effort to plant mangrove trees on poten-
tially understory-covered land indicates the future expansion of tree communities
(Fig. 13.7). The percentage of tree community distribution area increased from
12.56% before planting efforts in 2020 (Table 13.4) to 62.46% by 2070 (Table 13.6).
Particularly, tree communities are increasingly dominating the eastern and central
regions of SAL. Additionally, the tree community is growing in the western region,
leaving only a small area of understory cover. This scenario has the potential to
reduce understorey dominance to 0.78% of the total area over the next five decades.
The presence of a dense tree canopy prevents the growth of the understorey due to
limited sunlight availability for photosynthesis (Nordhaus et al. 2019; Finn et al.
1999; Janzen 1985). In contrast to Nypa, its distribution in both the western and
central regions of the SAL will remain relatively stable over the next few decades.
The salinity and flooding conditions present in the area facilitate Nypa growth. The
scenario simulation result shows that mangrove planting initiatives can effectively
rejuvenate forests that are primarily characterized by tree structures. However, the
act of planting in SAL requires substantial effort because of the low salinity of
the environmental conditions, especially in the West and Central regions, and the
continuous rise in land elevation caused by sedimentation. Hence, it is necessary to
engage in land engineering endeavors to modify the natural landscape to promote
the proliferation of mangrove trees, taking into account the impact of salinity and
flooding on how they grow (Nordhaus et al. 2019; Van Loon et al. 2016). Another
obstacle pertains to land tenure disputes in Segara Anakan. The endeavor to establish
mangroves frequently neglects the consideration of community land use rights as a
means of livelihood, resulting in insufficient community support and maintenance.
Initially, the local community endorsed the restoration of mangroves to enhance
fisheries resources and sustain their livelihood. Ultimately, the implementation of
mangrove protection policies led to a decrease in people’s sources of livelihood due
to the restrictions placed on fishing activities (Reichel et al. 2009). Hence, community
engagement plays a crucial role in shaping government policies in the future.
The result of the third scenario simulation (S3) indicates that the lagoon water
area, particularly in the western LSA, is likely to remain stable over the next few
decades (Fig. 13.8). This is also demonstrated by the percentage of the area of water

Table 13.6 The percentage of mangrove area (S2)

Year Tree Nypa Mixed Understorey Water bodies Non-Mangrove
2030 33.65 11.27 13.80 0.75 15.25 25.28
2040 44.42 8.07 11.47 0.78 14.12 21.15
2050 52.24 4.99 9.95 0.78 13.09 18.95
2060 55.39 4.05 9.57 0.78 12.76 17.45
2070 62.46 2.70 6.89 0.78 12.20 14.96
Source Modelling
324 B. Prayudha et al.

bodies over the next five decades, which fluctuates by less than 1% (Table 13.7).
Nevertheless, the transformation of the mangrove cover will result in its predomi-
nant composition of understorey vegetation. In the coming decades, tree distribu-
tion in the west and central SAL regions will decrease significantly. The mixed
community will also experience a significant decrease in tree distribution. Unlike
the eastern region, the tree community in this area is expected to remain unchanged
for the next fifty years. This scenario specifically addresses the issue of lagoon shal-
lowing and proposes the use of routine dredging, as previously implemented during
the period of 1996–2006 (Prayudha et al. 2023). The development of understorey
caused by environmental changes such as decreased mangrove tree cover, elevated
land elevation due to sedimentation, and decreased salinity was not accounted for
in this scenario. However, the scenario simulation result indicates that the under-
storey remains progressively expanding and replacing other mangrove covers. Unlike
mangrove trees, Nypa demonstrates a notable ability to thrive, particularly in the
western and central regions (Fig. 13.8).
The scenario options presented in this research are the results of simulations that
consider historical patterns of changes in mangrove cover and incorporate relevant
environmental factors. Similar research conducted by Li et al. (2023) and Wang et al.
(2021) did not consider changes in landform, as their study location was not affected
by sedimentation. The sedimentation process influences the mangrove habitat in SAL
differently. Supriatna et al. (2018) conducted a similar study in SAL. However, the

Fig. 13.7 Simulation maps of the changes of mangrove cover (S2)

13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 325

Fig. 13.8 Simulation maps of the changes of mangrove cover (S3)

Table 13.7 The percentage of mangrove area (S3)

Year Tree Nypa Mixed Understorey Water bodies Non-Mangrove
2030 12.43 12.46 6.05 28.01 15.77 25.28
2040 10.91 12.48 2.10 34.45 16.00 24.06
2050 10.38 12.87 2.10 36.05 16.17 22.43
2060 9.31 12.69 2.10 39.97 16.22 19.71
2070 8.79 12.90 2.10 40.28 16.22 19.71
Source Modelling

study did not accurately depict the sedimentation-influenced situation in the western
part of SAL. Instead, in the eastern part, the mangrove distribution decreased. This is
most likely due to the multitemporal map used, which does not accurately depict the
distribution of mangroves in SAL and does not incorporate landform and elevation
variables into the spatial allocation model.
This research’s simulation predictions may improve stakeholders’ and the commu-
nity’s awareness, highlighting the importance of exercising caution when making
management decisions in SAL. However, the success of this research heavily depends
on the accessibility of the simulation’s data. Although this study has considered the
development of new land as the result of sedimentation processes in the western part
326 B. Prayudha et al.

of SAL, it still lacks hydrodynamic data on currents that impact the direction of land
growth. Furthermore, the salinity data utilized in this study lacks temporal fluctu-
ations, leaving it unsuitable for predicting future scenarios. Hence, it is imperative
that we utilize the results of scenario simulation in this study with caution to generate
meticulously planned and suitable decisions.

13.4 Conclusions

The research results show that a spatial approach through geospatial technology
and modeling can be used to monitor, predict, and simulate the shifting pattern of
mangrove composition in SAL. This research’s modeling not only simulated the shift
in mangrove distribution but also captured the sedimentation-influenced landform
dynamics in the western part of SAL. Therefore, it clearly presents the driving factors
that contribute to the shifting of mangrove communities in SAL.
Landforms are the most influential factor in changing the mangrove composi-
tion in Segara Anakan, according to the study. This demonstrates that succession
resulting from geomorphic changes controls the occurrence of changes in mangrove
communities. Sedimentation, which forms emergent land, is the primary cause of
geomorphic changes in SAL. This succession process is clearly visible in SAL’s west
and central regions which understorey and Nypa replacing mangrove trees commu-
nities. In contrast, the eastern SAL region tends to show a more stable community
composition over the next few decades.
The scenario simulation results show that efforts to maintain the composition of
mangrove communities and landforms over a certain period of time (one decade)
can slow the rate of change for the next few decades. Then, efforts to rehabilitate
mangroves in degraded areas can increase the distribution of tree communities for
the next few decades. Policymakers can use the results of this research to guide their
planning decisions, ensuring the sustainability of the mangrove ecosystem in SAL.

Acknowledgements This research was supported by the capacity building research of COREMAP
- CTI BRIN 2021–2022 and degree by research program of BRIN – IPB 2020–2024.

Authors Contribution All authors have contributed equally to this work.

Funding The research was not supported by any funding.

Data Availability Statement The datasets during and/or analyzed during the current study
available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Potential conflicts of interest On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there
is no conflict of interest.

Informed Consent Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in
the study.
13 Land Use/Land Cover Change Model for Mapping, Monitoring … 327

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