Darmand’s Ultimate Science Academy

CSEC Additional Mathematics

To conclude our study of probability, we will now venture into the construction and analysis of probability
diagrams. This section of the topic is very important as probability diagrams significantly aid statisticians to
visualize a solution which may not come to light using another method.

For this course of study, we will construct and analyse the following probability diagrams:

1. Sample/Possibility Space Diagram

Sample Space Diagrams

Recall that the sample space is the set of all possible outcome for a probability experiment. With this, we can
deduce that the sample space diagram is an illustration of all possible outcomes.

The sample space diagram is mostly used to combine the outcomes of two experiments. There are rare cases
when it can be used to show the outcomes of three experiments, but this is highly unlikely to happen at the
CSEC level. The sample space diagram is a table with the following features:

1. The outcomes of the individual experiments are listed as column and row headings
2. If there is a mathematical operation being performed on the outcomes, we place the operation at the
intersection of the row and column headings and the result of the operation in the cells (the intersection
of rows and columns)
3. If there isn’t a mathematical operation being performed on the outcomes, we write the result as ordered
pairs in the cells.

Example 1

In a probability experiment, two fair coins are thrown at once.

(a) Construct a sample space diagram for this experiment

H T
H (H,H) (H,T)
T (T,H) (T,T)
(b) What is the probability that at least one head is obtained?
Example 2

Two fair tetrahedral dice with faces numbered 1,2,3,4 are rolled. The numbers obtained on the turned – down
faces of each dice are noted.

(a) Create a sample space table listing ALL possible outcomes for the two dice

(b) Using your sample space table, determine the probability of a 4

(i) on both dice

(ii) on at least one dice

(iii) on exactly one dice

(c) Show that obtaining a 4 on both dice are independent events

(d) Determine the probability of obtaining a 4 on both dice, given that a 4 was obtained on at least one dice
Example 3

Two fair dices are thrown at once and the values showing on their uppermost faces are added.

(a) Construct a sample space diagram for this experiment.

(b) Determine the probability that the sum is

(i) Less than 8

(ii) At least 4

(iii) A prime number

(iv) A factor of 12

(c) Given that the same number is obtained on both dice, determine the probability that the sum is a factor
of 6.
Example 4

Two unbiased tetrahedral dice each have four faces numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4. The two dice are thrown together
and the sum of the numbers on the faces on which they land is noted. Calculate the probability that the sum is
less than or equal to 6.
Example 5

Two fair six sided dice are thrown.

(a) Event A is ‘the scores differ by 3 or more’. Find the probability of event A.

(b) Event B is ‘the product of the scores is greater than 20’. Find the probability of event B.

(c) State with a reason, whether events A and B are mutually exclusive.
Contingency Tables

Contingency tables are used to represent the qualitative results of a research. Like the sample space diagrams,
categories/groups are listed as the row and column headings and the values in cells represent either the number
of objects in the both categories (the intersection) or the probability that an object chosen at random is in both
categories. Note that the CSEC Additional Mathematics syllabus does not include the contingency table but we
will cover them here briefly for completeness.

Example 6

At a given high school, there are 320 sixth form students. It is known that

150 students are in upper sixth

82 lower sixth male students

89 upper sixth female students

(a) Construct a contingency table for the data given

(b) Determine the probability that an upper sixth male student is selected.

(c) Given that an upper sixth student is selected, determine the probability that the student is a male.
Example 7

Data about employment for males and females in a small rural area are shown in the table.

Unemployed Employed
Male 206 412
Female 358 305

A person from this area is chosen at random. Let M be the event that the person is male and let E be the event
that the person is employed.

(a) Find 𝑃(𝑀)

(b) Find 𝑃(𝑀 𝑜𝑟 𝐸)

(c) Given that the person chosen is unemployed, find the probability that the person is female.

(d) Are M and E independent events? Justify your answer.

(e) Are M and E mutually exclusive events? Justify your answer.

Venn Diagrams can be used to solve both simple and complex problems. Using some basic understanding of
Venn diagrams from CSEC math, we solve more complicated problems. Before we jump into solving questions
with the Venn Diagram, we will first look into how we can identify different sets.

Example 8

Shade the region corresponding to each of the following in a venn diagram.

(i) 𝐴 ∩𝐵 (ii) 𝐴∪𝐵

(iii) 𝐴′ (iv) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′

(v) 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ (v) (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′

In a group of 35 students, 17 take art, 19 take music and 6 takes both.

(a) Construct a venn diagram to represent the information given

(b) Determine the probability that

(i) a student chosen at random does at least one of the two subjects

(ii) a student does neither music nor art

(iii) a student does art but not music

(iv) a student does art, given that the student does not do music.
Example 10

In a survey, 15% of the participants said that they had never bought lottery tickets or premium bonds, 73% had
bought lottery tickets and 49% had bought premium bonds.

(a) Construct a venn diagram to represent the information given.

(b) Are the events that the participant has bought a lottery ticket and the participant has bought a premium
bond:

(i) Mutually Exclusive?

(ii) Independent?
Example 11

In a class of 25 students it is found that five of the students play both tennis and chess, ten play only tennis and
three do not participate in either tennis or chess. A student is selected at random from the class. Find the
probability that the student:

(a) plays both tennis and chess

(b) plays chess only

(c) does not play chess

The Venn diagram below shows events A and B where

𝑃(𝐴) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 0.6 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 0.1. The values of 𝑚, 𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝 are probabilities.

A B

m n p

(a) Write down the value of 𝑛

(b) Find the value of 𝑚, 𝑜𝑓 𝑝, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑞.

(c) Find 𝑃(𝐵 ′ )

Consider the events A and B, where

𝑃(𝐴) = 0.5, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.7 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.3

The Venn diagram below shows the events A and B, and the probabilities 𝑝, 𝑞 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟

A B

p q

(a) Write down the value p, q and r

(b) Find the value of 𝑃(𝐴 |𝐵′)

(c) Hence, or otherwise, show that the events A and B are dependent.
Tree Diagrams

The tree diagram is used to show how successive events occur. As such, you should be able to gather that
conditional probability is a fundamental part of constructing and analysing tree diagrams. The rules for
constructing a tree diagram are given below

1. Probabilities are written along branches while events are written at the end of branches
2. Probabilities along branches from a single point of origin must add up to 1
3. Every tree diagram must have a key. Without it, your diagram is useless to the user.

Consider the experiment of drawing two markers, one at a time without replacement, from a bag that contain 6
red and 3 black markers. We can draw a tree diagram to represent the outcomes of this experiment.

Note that this is she standard layout of a Tree Diagram. Note that all three rules from above are demonstrated in
this example.

Recall from our study that

𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝑅|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

Which implies that

𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)

From our tree diagram, we can see that these values are along the branches of the tree diagram.
Therefore, if you want to find the intersection of two events, we multiply the values along the branches.
Example 14

When Andrea needs a taxi, she rings one of three taxi companies, A, B or C. 50% of her calls are to taxi
company A and 20% to C. A taxi from company A arrives late 4% of the time, a taxi from company B arrives
late 6% of the time and a taxi from company C arrives early 83% of the time.

(a) Construct a tree diagram using the information given

In a certain country 54% of the population is male. It is known that 5% of the males are colour-blind and 2% of
the females are colour-blind.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the information provided

(b) Find the probability that a person chosen at random is colour blind

(c) A person selected at random is found to be colour blind, find the probability that this person was a male.
Example 17

Jamie is equally likely to attend or not attend a training session before a football match. If he attends, he is
certain to be chosen for the team which plays the match. If he does not attend, there is a probability of 0.6 that
he is chosen for the team.

(a) Construct a tree diagram to show all possibilities

(b) Determine the probability that Jamie is chosen from the team

(c) Given that Jamie was chosen for the team, find the probability that Jamie attended the training session,
Example 18

Rachel and Anna play each other at Badminton. Each game results in either a win for Rachel or a win for Anna.
The probability of Rachel winning the first game is 0.6. If rachel wins a particular game, the probability of her
winning the next game is 0.7, but if she loses, the probability of her winning the next game is 0.4.

(a) Construct a tree diagram to represent the information given.

(b) Determine the probability that Rachel wins the second game

(c) Hence, find the probability that Rachel wins the first game, given that she loses the second.
Example 19

The probability that Henk goes swimming on any day is 0.2. On a day when he goes swimming, the probability
that Henk has burgers for supper is 0.75. On a day when he does not go swimming, the probability that he has
burgers for supper is 𝑥. This information is shown on the following tree diagram.

The probability that Henk has burgers fror supper on any given day is 0.5.

(a) Find 𝑥

(b) If Henk has burgers for supper, find the probability that he went swimming that day.