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TOWARD PEACE
IN BOSNIA
INTERNATIONAL PEACE A C A D E M Y
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES
 TOWARD PEACE
IN BOSNIA
Implementing the Dayton Accords

Elizabeth M. Cousens
and Charles K. Cater

LYN N E
RIENNER
PUBLISHERS

B O U L D E R
L O N D O N
Published in the United States of America in 2001 by
Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc.
1800 30th Street, Boulder, Colorado 80301
www.rienner.com

and in the United Kingdom by

Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc.
3 Henrietta Street, Covent Garden, London WC2E 8LU

© 2001 by the International Peace Academy, Inc. All rights reserved by the publisher

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Toward peace in Bosnia : implementing the Dayton accords / Elizabeth M. Cousens
and Charles K. Cater.
p. cm.—(International Peace Academy occasional paper series)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-55587-942-X (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Dayton Peace Accords (1995) 2. Yugoslav War, 1991-1995—Peace. 3. Yugoslav
War, 1991-1995—Bosnia and Hercegovina. 4. Bosnia and Hercegovina—History—
1992- 5. Bosnia and Hercegovina—History, Military. I. Cousens, Elizabeth M.
II. Cater, Charles K. III. Series.
DR1313.7.P43 T68 2001
949.703—dc21
2001019008

British Cataloguing in Publication Data

A Cataloguing in Publication record for this book
is available from the British Library.

Printed and bound in the United States of America

The paper used in this publication meets the requirements

@ of the American National Standard for Permanence of
Paper for Printed Library Materials Z39.48-1984.

5 4 3 2 1
 Contents

List of Illustrations 1
Foreword, David Malone 9
Acknowledgments 11

Introduction 13

1 War and Settlement 17

2 The Dayton Framework 33

3 Security 53

4 Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons 71

5 Economic Reconstruction and Development 87

6 Reunification 101

7 Democratization 111

8 International Authority 129

9 Evaluating the Dayton Project 137

10 Conclusion 151

5
6 CONTENTS

Appendix 1: List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 155

Appendix 2: Chronology 159

Bibliography 167
Index 179
About this Publication 187
Other International Peace Academy Publications 188
The International Peace Academy 189
 Illustrations

MAPS

Yugoslavia (1991) 20
Bosnia and Herzegovina (2000) 35

TABLES

2.1 The Dayton Agreement and Its Implementers 38

2.2 International Membership in Bosnian Offices 40
2.3 The Dayton Agreement and Its Deadlines 47
3.1 Arms and Troop Limits in the Florence Agreement 55
4.1 Refugee Repatriation to Bosnia, 1996-1999 73
4.2 IDP Returns Within Bosnia, 1996-1999 75
4.3 Minority Returns to and Within Bosnia, 1996-1999 79

FIGURE

2.1 Relationships Among Major Implementing Agencies 42

7
 Foreword
David Malone

The civil wars of the 1990s tested the multilateral community's capacity
to respond to mass violence and its aftermath to unprecedented degrees.
Increasingly, practitioners and analysts have recognized the importance
of developing strategies to consolidate and build peace beyond the
mediation or conclusion of active armed conflict. Determining how the
international community can best organize itself to engage in effective
peacebuilding, however, remains an ongoing challenge.
This volume examines international efforts to implement the
Dayton Accords that ended the Bosnian war in 1995 very much in this
wider context. Elizabeth M. Cousens has closely followed political
developments in southeastern Europe throughout the 1990s. She has
also been involved since 1997 in an ambitious study of comparative
peace implementation, conducted jointly by the Center for International
Security and Cooperation at Stanford University and the International
Peace Academy (IPA) and involving more than two dozen scholars and
practitioners. By 2000, a thorough assessment of the international expe-
rience in postwar Bosnia seemed both feasible and useful.
Consequently, I was delighted that Cousens tackled the challenge,
drawing on both strands of her research, with the splendid result that
you have before you. Her coauthor, Charles Cater, a colleague within
IPA, drew on his own practical experience documenting persecution
claims for Bosnian refugees with the International Rescue Committee
(IRC), as well as on previous research on civil conflicts.
This particular research and policy development project made
excellent use of IPA's niche as an independent institution close to the
United Nations and several relevant regional organizations. Many of the
implementers in Bosnia shared their perspectives with the authors. So
have many of their critics.

9
 The IPA Occasional Paper Series, as with all IPA work, aims to
serve both practitioners and scholars in offering analysis and conclu-
sions that do not shy from raising troubling questions. Cousens and
Cater do not suggest that easy answers are available to international
actors attempting to implement welcome but often imperfect peace
plans. However, they do identify major pitfalls that could be avoided in
the future while highlighting the areas decisionmakers should worry
about the most, both in drafting peace agreements and then in attempt-
ing to implement them.
For this, I am deeply grateful to them both. I am also very grateful
to the United States Institute of Peace for generously funding the
research involved.
 Acknowledgments

We wish, first, to pay sincere thanks to those practitioners and analysts

who agreed to be interviewed by Elizabeth M. Cousens between 1996
and 1999. In particular, colleagues at the United Nations Mission in
Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Office of the High Representative, the UN
High Commissioner for Refugees, the World Bank, the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the International Crisis Group
took much time and great care, when they had little to spare of the for-
mer and far too much of the latter. This study would not have been pos-
sible without their contributions. Any of our insights properly belong to
them, while any errors in fact or analysis are, of course, our own.
Over the course of our respective work on Bosnia, many at the
International Peace Academy have offered invaluable help, especially
Florence Musaffi. To Karin Wermester, we owe an enormous debt for
her tireless efforts to coordinate what became at its last stage an inter-
continental publication. We also benefited from a superb series of
interns at the IPA, including Peter Singer, Alicia Allison, Bei Hu, and
Diana Van Walsum, whose hard work greatly facilitated our research
and writing. To David Malone and John Hirsch, we owe profound
thanks for their encouragement and support.
We would further like to thank our publisher, Lynne Rienner, and
the rest of her team for their hard work, patience with geographically
scattered authors, and exceptional professionalism.
We are also grateful for the energy and intellectual inspiration of
our colleagues in a joint research project on peace implementation con-
ducted by the IPA and the Center for International Security and
Cooperation at Stanford University, especially Donald Rothchild and
Stephen John Stedman. In addition, several colleagues very helpfully

11
12 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

commented in detail on earlier drafts of our manuscript, notably Marcus

Cox and Mats Berdal.
A very particular and personal thanks is owed by Elizabeth to two
individuals who helped shape an early interest in and commitment to
matters Balkan: Susan Woodward, who from first meeting has been not
only a mentor and a much admired colleague but also a dear friend; and
Jan 0berg, whose unceasing commitment to conflict resolution and rec-
onciliation remains an inspiration.
Likewise, Charles would like to thank Bob Carey and the staff of
the International Rescue Committee.
We also gratefully acknowledge those institutions that financially
and intellectually supported this project, beginning with the United
States Institute of Peace, which made this publication possible, and
including the Ford Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur
Foundation, and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, all of which
supported our related work on Bosnia and on peacebuilding more
broadly.
Finally, though acknowledgments in an Occasional Paper offer a
frail and inadequate way to do so, we wish to pay tribute to Mr. F. T.
Liu. For years, he graced the IPA with his wit, insight, and wisdom. His
knowledge of the United Nations, peacekeeping, and the intricacies of
world politics was breathtaking, and we gained much from the far too
little time spent in his presence. His was a remarkable spirit—he will be
sorely missed.

—E. M. Cousens
—C. K. Cater
 Introduction

By the end of 1999, the enormous international effort to implement the

peace agreement that ended Bosnia's civil war in November 1995 had
gone on longer than the war itself. Two basic concerns animated inter-
national activities in 1995: first, that war would not resume; and sec-
ond, in the absence of war, that Bosnia would rebuild for itself a just
peace, which international observers by and large considered a multi-
ethnic one. Over five years later, neither concern has been conclusively
resolved, Massive hostilities are unlikely to resume, but armed conflict
over more targeted objectives remains a sufficient worry that interna-
tional peacekeepers show no inclination to leave. More troubling, the
parties to Bosnia's peace have resisted committing themselves credibly
to a common political design for the country, leaving most of Bosnia's
population under the governance of monoethnic authorities and the
country's unity as yet unrealized.
Several years of peace implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina
have not been without significant accomplishments: several rounds of
internationally certified elections have been held at national, subnation-
al, and local levels; the power-sharing institutions designed to reunify
the country are up and running, if with debatable effectiveness; nearly
650,000 of Bosnia's forcibly displaced citizens had returned by early
2000 to the country, if not primarily to their original homes; 1 significant
portions of the country's infrastructure have been repaired; and not
least, the military-on-military cease-fire that took hold at the end of
1995 has not been broken.
None of these achievements is without a subversive element, how-
ever. In this volume we argue, for example, that early elections militat-
ed against broader democratization and that military cease-fire in the
absence of civilian security did as much to deepen certain of Bosnia's

13
14 •ELIZABETH M . COUSENS A N D CHARLES K . CATER

internal divisions as to heal them. Moreover, one cannot avoid tough

questions about strategy and effectiveness when much of Dayton imple-
mentation remains to be realized, even after such massive and continu-
ing expenditure of international personnel, resources, and energy. 2
Indeed, international implementers have faced iterated obstruction from
Bosnian authorities, so much that even as they have drawn down their
military presence, they have ramped up their civilian, political involve-
ment. Several villages have even acquired special "envoys" because
implementing local election results without sustained international pres-
sure has proved so difficult.
To explain persistent divisions in Bosnian politics, one need not
look far for explanations. To list just a few: a centuries-old history of
interethnic a n t a g o n i s m and b l o o d s h e d ; the " a r t i f i c i a l i t y " of the
Yugoslav state and the Bosnian Republic within it; an intensive recent
war aimed at segregating populations; political leaderships whose com-
mitment to an ongoing peace process in the country was questionable;
and a peace agreement whose internal compromises—some would say
contradictions—may have made it impossible to implement from the
start. Most analysts would agree that each factor has played some role
in Bosnia's postwar developments, even if they might disagree over
their relative significance. In this sense, Bosnia's present state of affairs
is what social scientists would call "overdetermined": too many expla-
nations chasing a regrettably limited range of outcomes.
Within this matrix of contributing factors, however, we find that a
disproportionate share of the explanation for Bosnia's current state
belongs to strategic flaws in the international implementation effort.
Between priorities set by involved governments and agencies and
choices made by implementers on the ground, the process of implemen-
tation has needlessly helped consolidate the tripartite division of
Bosnia. Indeed, the cumulative impact of these decisions has made it a
much harder task to "implement Dayton" today than when the war
ended.
In this volume we examine the first four years of international
efforts to implement the Dayton Accords and argue the following: First,
the Bosnian war ended with a deeply dissatisfying compromise among
the warring parties to which they had only acceded under intense inter-
national pressure, especially from the United States. They could be pre-
dicted to try to turn the agreement to their respective aims during imple-
mentation or otherwise use implementation as an opportunity to revise
or obstruct the settlement to which they had pledged themselves. An
obvious implication was that international implementers would need a
clear strategy for dealing with obstruction and an adequate set of tools
INTRODUCTION 15

with which to pursue such a strategy, very much including the capacity
to exert sustained pressure or even coercion.
Second, the settlement reached at Dayton was sufficiently ambiva-
lent between its separatist and integrationist components that it placed
an enormous burden on implementers to decide their relative weight.
This ambivalence was largely expressed in the tension among different
provisions of the accord. Such tensions were not insuperable but could
only be overcome by a serious, deliberate effort by a wide range of
implementers to render their collective efforts coherent.
Third, international implementers actually enjoyed great potential
influence in this regard. The agreement formally mandated to interna-
tional third parties an extraordinary level of involvement and authority
along multiple dimensions of postwar Bosnian politics. International
parties also enjoyed leverage over the parties through their role as gate-
keepers to membership in regional and international organizations and
through their capacity to apply pressures and incentives of the type that
got Bosnia's parties to agree to peace. Despite its constraints, the
Dayton Agreement contained multiple opportunities for implementers
to use these formal roles and informal relationships to overcome central
weaknesses in the agreement itself, provided that they recognized the
need to do so and could rise above their own institutional limitations.
Fourth, however, more opportunities were missed than seized by
international implementers since late 1995. Early policy choices—such
as the decision to decentralize implementation efforts among multiple
international organizations, the unwillingness to use military resources
in support of civilian implementation, and the sequencing of key provi-
sions once implementation began—worked against Dayton's integra-
tionist goals even while these were still publicly championed. The
broader implementation effort was also weakened by competing strate-
gies among key implementing actors and contributing governments,
which were as often driven by bureaucratic and domestic considerations
as authentic disputes about the best way to consolidate peace in
Bosnia.
Finally, the principal result of such shortcomings was a growing
gap between accomplishment and aspiration. This, in turn, generated
great pressure on implementers to overcompensate in order to make up
lost ground. The result has been an arrogation to international imple-
menters of increasing authority to make binding decisions in Bosnian
politics where the indigenous peace process fell short. Some have called
this a "creeping protectorate," others an attempt to build "peace by
fiat." By any name, the exercise of such powers by international parties
in an essentially domestic context stands as an object lesson about the
16 •ELIZABETH M . COUSENS A N D CHARLES K . CATER

requirements of peace implementation under conditions as inhospitable

as those of Bosnia.

* * *

This Occasional Paper proceeds along the following lines: Chapter

1 gives a short history of the Bosnian war and its settlement, emphasiz-
ing those factors that bear most heavily on the process of peace imple-
mentation. Chapter 2 focuses on the Dayton Agreement itself, its key
terms as well as its ambiguities and the roles it devised for international
implementing agencies. Chapters 3-8 treat what we argue are the six
most critical aspects of implementation: security, refugees and internal-
ly displaced persons, economic reconstruction and development, reuni-
fication, democratization, and international authority. Chapter 9 sets cri-
teria for evaluating Dayton implementation, reviews notable
achievements and disappointments, and offers an explanation for this
course of events. Finally, our conclusion, Chapter 10, reviews the poli-
cy lessons emerging from Bosnia, with a focus, first, on the likely effect
on Bosnia's long-term peace process of such a heavy and protracted
international presence and, second, on the implications of the Bosnian
experience in the broader context of the rapidly evolving roles and mis-
sions of international organizations in the post-Cold War era.

NOTES

1. UNHCR Sarajevo, Returns Summary to Bosnia and Herzegovina from

0 1 / 0 1 / 9 6 to 30/04/00. Accessed 26 June 2 0 0 0 online at www.unhcr.ba/
Operations/S tati stic al % 20package/1. htm.
2. In early 2000, the international military presence was scaled down to
approximately 20,000 troops, and international police were maintained at just
over 2,000, still considerable numbers in a country slightly smaller than West
Virginia (51,233 km 2 ). Worryingly for prospects of long-term stability, one
might draw a comparison to Sierra Leone in 2000, which was then attempting
to stabilize a spectacularly fragile cease-fire: at one-and-one-half times the size
of Bosnia, Sierra Leone was mandated by the UN Security Council a peace-
keeping force of 13,000—one-quarter that of Bosnia's first implementation
force, only two-thirds the size of its present peacekeeping strength, and pre-
sumably somewhat less well equipped than NATO-contributed troops. See
http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/unamsil/UnamsilF.htm, accessed 26 June 2000.
 1
War and Settlement

Bosnia and Herzegovina found itself fully at war in the spring of 1992,
after a year in which the Yugoslav federal state to which it belonged had
come sequentially and violently apart. The Bosnian war was the third
and most destructive stage of Yugoslavia's disintegration, following a
short scuffle over Slovenia's secession and a serious, though also short,
war over Croatia's departure. The dynamics of Yugoslavia's breakup
bear heavily on Bosnia's evolving prospects for peace. Moreover, the
circumstances that enabled the war to conclude and led to the signing of
a peace agreement had concrete implications for what would be
required to implement the agreement.

THE ONSET OF W A R

From at least the late 1980s, Yugoslavia's complex balance of powers

among its six republics, two autonomous provinces, and six constituent
nationalities had become increasingly untenable as well as fertile
ground for competition among political leaders emerging in
Yugoslavia's republics. 1 Long before it would have seemed plausible
that Yugoslavia would literally dissolve, the political center of gravity
had shifted significantly from the country's federal institutions to its
republics and provinces (see map p. 20). Yugoslavia's third constitution,
adopted in 1974, devolved authority along virtually every axis of insti-
tutional power: each republic now had its own central bank, communist
party, educational system, judiciary, and, very importantly, police. The
only institution that still operated exclusively at the federal level was
the Yugoslav National Army (JNA), though it now acquired as com-
mander-in-chief an eight-member, rotating federal presidency.2

17
18 E L I Z A B E T H M . C O U S E N S A N D C H A R L E S K . CATER

In theory, the 1974 constitutional amendments were a progressive

response to demands for local autonomy; in practice, they gave each
republic an institutional toolkit to become a powerful rival to the central
state and to one another. This unwieldy institutional framework was a
godsend to any politician interested in building a personal power base,
and Yugoslavia had several. The most ambitious of these appealed to
national loyalties, grievance, and fears, particularly as the Yugoslav
state's capacity to deliver basic goods shriveled and as Yugoslavia's
economic and strategic status was called into question with the end of
the Cold War. 3 Nationalism had long been the primary language of
political opposition in Yugoslavia. National sentiment was also general-
ly on the rise as the Cold War drew to a close, which Western govern-
ments and institutions greeted with a degree of, arguably, careless
a c c e p t a n c e . By the end of the 1980s, as a result, c o n d i t i o n s in
Yugoslavia closely resembled those described by scholars as creating a
high risk for ethnic conflict: declining overall and relative socioeco-
nomic standards, weakening state institutions, social uncertainty and
anxiety about "plausible futures," along with such longer-term attri-
butes as a history of intergroup violence and affinities between groups
on different sides of political or administrative boundaries. 4
By 1990, when the first democratic elections were held in all six
republics, nationalist politicians and parties were clear winners. 5
Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic had emerged as a champion of
the Serb people, whose rights he encouraged them to believe were
under assault everywhere from the province of Kosovo—which was 90
percent Albanian Muslim to 10 percent S e r b — t o the republic of
Croatia, whose draft constitution in June appeared to grant rights only
to Croats and not to the 12 percent of its population that was Serb.
Slovenian leaders had openly declared their desire for national inde-
pendence, directly challenging Milosevic in particular, who expressed a
fierce commitment to keeping Yugoslavia together. 6 Croatia, mean-
while, was experiencing its own nationalist revival, electing the well-
credentialed nationalist Franjo Tudjman as its first president of the post-
communist era. Its new ruling party—the Croatian Democratic Union
(HDZ)—replaced the emblems of Yugoslavia with Croatian symbols
last seen during Croatia's collaboration with Nazi Germany. At the
same time, hard-line Croatian Serbs had begun a militant autonomy
movement whose core became the new Serbian Democratic Party
(SDS). Bosnian politics had also turned in nationalist directions. The
Muslim-dominated Party for Democratic Action (SDA) was founded in
the spring, with Alija Izetbegovic as its president; and sister parties of
the Croat HDZ and the Serb SDS were founded shortly thereafter.
W A R A N D SETTLEMENT 19

Still more ominous, segments of the political population in Croatia

and Bosnia had already begun to prepare for armed confrontation, both
at the boundaries of the republics and within them. Within Croatia, the
SDS, with support from Serbia proper, was building its own village-to-
village military capacity in pursuit of what would soon be declared an
independent "Republic of Serb Krajina." 7 By early fall of 1990, the
Croatian government was secretly arming police and territorial defense
forces and purging its security forces of Serbs in anticipation of JNA
resistance to its secession. In Bosnia, Serb communities also began set-
ting up village patrols that were increasingly militarized over the course
of 1991 and 1992, when the JNA began discreetly transferring its
Bosnian Serb troops back to Bosnia.
The immediate sequence of events that culminated in full-scale war
in Bosnia was swift and brutal. Slovenia declared its independence on
25 June 1991, which it effectively won after an extremely short "war"
with the JNA—more of a halfhearted police action conducted by mili-
tary troops. Croatia simultaneously declared independence but met far
more serious resistance from the JNA, Serb paramilitary units, and its
own autonomy-seeking Serbs. As war in Croatia continued through late
1991, Bosnia's Serb and, to a lesser extent, Croat communities also
began to mobilize for conflict. Serb leaders very vocally declared their
intention to remain within the Yugoslav Federation or seek separation
from Bosnia. Serb "autonomous areas" were set up in the fall, and a
plebiscite was held in Serb areas to demonstrate Serbian opposition to
Bosnia's secession from Yugoslavia. By early January 1992, Serbian
president Slobodan Milosevic also began transferring Bosnian Serbs in
the JNA back to Bosnia in anticipation of hostilities. Meanwhile,
Bosnia's president, Alija Izetbegovic, and the SDA grew increasingly
committed to Bosnian independence. When the European Community
(EC) recognized both Slovenian and Croatian independence in January
1992, largely as a gambit to end the war in Croatia, it worked. Within
two months, however, war had engulfed neighboring Bosnia.
Once Slovenia and Croatia had successfully seceded, Bosnia was
left with a Hobson's choice: remain in a much smaller Yugoslavia that
would be overwhelmingly dominated by Serbia and by implication its
own large Serb minority, or leave the Yugoslav Federation, leaving
Bosnian Serbs, and Bosnian Croats to a much lesser extent, analogously
worried about domination by the country's Muslim plurality. Anxiety
about the status of non-Muslim nationalities was not without basis, but
it was also extravagantly stoked and manipulated by Serbian and
Croatian leaders. Bosnia resembled the Yugoslav Federation uniquely
among Yugoslav republics in its mix of nationalities, lack of an absolute
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