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Fasikaw Atanaw Zimale
Temesgen Enku Nigussie
Solomon Workneh Fanta (Eds.)

274

Advances of Science
and Technology
6th EAI International Conference, ICAST 2018
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, October 5–7, 2018
Proceedings

123
Lecture Notes of the Institute
for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics
and Telecommunications Engineering 274

Editorial Board
Ozgur Akan
Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
Paolo Bellavista
University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Jiannong Cao
Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Geoffrey Coulson
Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Falko Dressler
University of Erlangen, Erlangen, Germany
Domenico Ferrari
Università Cattolica Piacenza, Piacenza, Italy
Mario Gerla
UCLA, Los Angeles, USA
Hisashi Kobayashi
Princeton University, Princeton, USA
Sergio Palazzo
University of Catania, Catania, Italy
Sartaj Sahni
University of Florida, Florida, USA
Xuemin Sherman Shen
University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
Mircea Stan
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, USA
Jia Xiaohua
City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8197
Fasikaw Atanaw Zimale •

Temesgen Enku Nigussie •

Solomon Workneh Fanta (Eds.)

Advances of Science
and Technology
6th EAI International Conference, ICAST 2018
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, October 5–7, 2018
Proceedings

123
Editors
Fasikaw Atanaw Zimale Temesgen Enku Nigussie
Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Faculty of Civil and Water Resources
Engineering Engineering
Bahir Dar Institute of Technology Bahir Dar Institute of Technology
Bahir Dar University Bahir Dar University
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
Solomon Workneh Fanta
Faculty of Chemical and Food Engineering
Bahir Dar Institute of Technology
Bahir Dar University
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

ISSN 1867-8211 ISSN 1867-822X (electronic)

Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics
and Telecommunications Engineering
ISBN 978-3-030-15356-4 ISBN 978-3-030-15357-1 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15357-1

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 Preface

We are delighted to introduce the proceedings of the 6th EAI International Conference
on Advancement of Science and Technology (ICAST 2018). This conference brought
together scholars, scientists, researchers in academia and institutes, as well as
experts from industry to exchange knowledge, experiences, the latest technological
advancements, research findings, innovations, and applications in all aspects of science
and technology.
The technical program of ICAST 2018 consisted of 47 full papers, in oral
presentation sessions during the main conference tracks, and eight poster presentations.
The conference tracks were: Track 1 – Agro-Processing Industries for Sustainable
Development; Track 2 – Water Resources Development for the Shared Vision in the
Blue Nile Basin; Track 3 – IT and Computer Technology Innovation; Track 4 – Recent
Advances in Electrical and Computer Engineering; Track 5 – Progresses in Product
Design and System Optimization. Aside from the high-quality technical paper
presentations, the technical program also featured four keynote speeches and three
session keynote speakers. The four keynote speeches were Professor Mammo Muchie
from DST-NRF SARChI Chair in Innovation Studies, Tshwane University of Tech-
nology, South Africa, Prof. Chiuhsiang Joe Lin from the Department of Industrial
Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taiwan, Prof.
Zhiyan Pan from the Department of Environmental Engineering Zhejiang University of
Technology, China, Prof. Yunghsiang S. Han (Distinguished Professor) from the
School of Electrical Engineering and Intelligentization, Dongguan University of
Technology, China. The three session keynote speakers were Prof. Muluneh Yitayew,
University of Arizona, USA, Dr. Yilma Seleshi, School of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, AAiT, Addis Ababa University, and Dr. Shimelis Emire, School of
Chemical and Bio Engineering AAiT, Addis Ababa University. The five tracks were
conducted as parallel sessions in four halls and poster presentations were held during
the coffee breaks.
Coordination with the Steering Committee chair, Prof. Imrich Chlamtac, the
Organizing Committee chair, Dr. Seifu A. Tilahun, the co-chairs, Dr. Atikilt Abebe and
Mr. Endalkachew Chanie, and the Technical Program Committee chair was essential
for the success of the conference. We sincerely appreciate their constant support and
guidance. It was also a great pleasure to work with such an excellent Organizing
Committee who worked hard in organizing and supporting the conference. In partic-
ular, the Technical Program Committee, led by Prof. Kibret Mequanint, and the
co-chairs, Dr. Bereket Haile, Dr. Gebeyehu Belay, and Prof. A. Pushparaghavan, were
instrumental in organizing the peer-review process of the technical papers, which led to
a high-quality technical program. We are also grateful to the conference manager,
Radka Pincakova, for her support, and all the authors who submitted their papers to the
ICAST 2018 conference and workshops.
vi Preface

This volume contains the papers presented at the 6th EAI International Conference
on Advancement of Science and Technology (ICAST 2018), which was held during
October 5–7, 2018, at Grand Resort and Spa, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. All submissions
were strictly peer reviewed by the Technical Program Committee and only the papers
accepted were presented.
We strongly believe that ICAST 2018 provided a good forum for all researchers,
developers, and practitioners to discuss all science and technology aspects that are
relevant to advancements in this subject. We also expect that future ICAST conferences
will be as successful and stimulating, as indicated by the contributions presented in this
volume.

February 2019 Seifu A. Tilahun

Kibret Mequanint
Fasikaw Atanaw Zimale
 Organization

Steering Committee Chair

Imrich Chlamtac Bruno Kessler Professor, University of Trento, Italy

Organizing Committee
General Chair
Seifu A. Tilahun Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

General Co-chairs
Endalkachew Chanie Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia
Atikilt Ketema Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

TPC Co-chairs
Kibret Mequanint University of Western Ontario, Canada
Bereket Haile National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taiwan
Gebeyehu Belay Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia
A. Pushparaghavan Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia
Tammos S. Steenhuis Cornell University, USA

Sponsorship and Exhibit Chair

Tesfa Tegegne Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

Local Chair
Sisay Geremew Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

Workshops Chair
Zenamarkos Bantie Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

Publicity and Social Media Chairs

Abaynesh Yehedgo Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium
Fikreselam Gared Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia
Sewunet Alemu Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

Publications Chair
Fasikaw Atanaw Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia
viii Organization

Web Chair
Tewodros Worku Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

Posters and PhD Track Chair

Sam Goundar Victoria University, New Zealand

Panels Chair
Moges Ashagre Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium

Demos Chair
Temesgen Enku Nigussie Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia

Tutorials Chair
Yenenh Tamirat Asia University, Taiwan

Technical Program Committee

Kibret Mequanint University of Western Ontario, Canada
Bereket Haile National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taiwan
Gebeyehu Belay Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia
A. Pushparaghavan Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia
Tammos S. Steenhuis Cornell University, USA
 Contents

Application of Lean Tools for Reduction of Manufacturing Lead Time . . . . . 1

Star Abrham and Sisay Geremew

Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios for Reducing

Soil Erosion in Data Scarce Regions, Blue Nile Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Berhanu M. Mekuria and Mamaru A. Moges

Morphological Changes in the Lower Reach of Megech River,

Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Getachew Asmare and Mengiste Abate

Development of Rainfall Disaggregation Model in the Awash

River Basin, Ethiopia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Tsegamlak D. Beyene, Mamaru A. Moges, and Seifu A. Tilahun

Evaluation of Processing Conditions for Lentil and Corn Blend Extrudate . . . 65

Tadesse Fenta and Yogesh Kumar

Machine Repair Problem with Preventive Maintenance and Multi

Criteria Prioritization of Machines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Ahmed Abide, Jeyaraju Jayaprakash, Bereket Haile, and Sisay Geremew

Cascaded Hybrid Device Multilevel Converters for Wind

Mill Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
P. Palanivel, R. Selvarasu, B. Barani Sundaram,
and Hinsermu Alemayehu

Evaluation of Workplace Environmental Ergonomics and Method

Development for Manufacturing Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Tomas C. Kassaneh and Ahmed A. Tadesse

CSN 12050 Carbon Steel Mechanical Property Enhancement

Using Thermal Treatment to Optimize Product Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Melesse Workneh Wakjira, Holm Altenbach,
and Perumalla Janaki Ramulu

Physico-Chemical Characterizations of Ethiopian Kaolin for Industrial

Applications: Case Study WDP Propoxur Formulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Tadele Assefa Aragaw and Feleke Kuraz
x Contents

Effect of Biochar Application Rate, Production (Pyrolysis) Temperature

and Feedstock Type (Rice Husk/Maize Straw) on Amendment
of Clay-Acidic Soil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Brook Tesfamichael and Nebiyeleul Gessese

Performance Comparisons of Solar Mixed and Indirect Dryers

for Maize Grain Drying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Aynadis Molla, Sajid Alavi, Bhadriraju Subramanyam,
Solomon Workneh, and Nigus Gabbiye

Test and Characterization of Tensile Strength of Oxytenanthera Abyssinica

and Yushania Alpina Bamboos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
Fentahun Ayu Muche and Yonas Mitiku Degu

Effects of Soil and Water Conservation Practices on Runoff,

Soil and Nutrient Losses in Alekt Wenz Watershed, Ethiopian Highland . . . . 170
Simir Birihan Atanaw, Dessalew Worku Aynalem, Anwar Assefa Adem,
Wolde Mekuria, and Seifu Admassu Tilahun

Optimization of Green Logistic Distribution Routing Problem with Multi

Depot Using Improved Simulated Annealing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Teshome Bekele Dagne, Jeyaraju Jayaprakash, Bereket Haile,
and Sisay Geremew

Failure Mode Analysis of Automotive Final Drive Gears . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

Rajesh Murukesan and Teshome Dengiso Megiso

Design, Fabrication and Testing of Animal Drawn Multiple

Mouldboard Plough. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
Abebe Firew Guadie and Yonas Mitiku Degu

Design, Construction and Testing of Hybrid Solar-Biomass Cook Stove . . . . 225

Bisrat Yilma Mekonnen and Abdulkadir Aman Hassen

Design and Analysis of Low-Transition Address Generator . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

Sivasankaran Saravanan, Mikias Hailu, G. Mohammed Gouse,
Mohan Lavanya, and R. Vijaysai

Modeling of Induction Heating Inverter Using System Identification . . . . . . . 248

Mulugeta Debebe, Endalew Ayenew, Beza Neqatibeb,
and Venkata Lakshmi Narayana Komanapalli

Development of Low Cost Gemstone Polishing Cum Cutting Machine . . . . . 258

Fetene Teshome and Kishor Purushottam Kolhe

Kinetic Modeling and Gas Composition Analysis

During Sawdust Pyrolysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
Tesfaye Alamirew and Solomon W. Fanta
 Contents xi

Evaluating the Role of Runoff and Soil Erosion on Nutrient Loss

in the Chenetale Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Alemsha G. Bogale, Dessalew W. Aynalem, Anwar A. Adem,
Wolde Mekuria, and Seifu A. Tilahun

Adaptive Cloudlet Scheduling Algorithm Using Three Phase

Optimization Technique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
Mohan Lavanya, B. Santhi, and Sivasankaran Saravanan

Design and Development of Household Gasifier Cooking Stoves:

Natural Versus Forced Draft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
Eshetu Getahun, Dawit Tessema, and Nigus Gabbiye

PSNR and Robustness Comparison Between DCT and SVD Based Digital
Image Watermarking Against Different Noise and Attacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
Tarun Rathi, Rudra P. Maheshwari, Manoj Tripathy,
and Vikas Chaudhary

Multi-font Printed Amharic Character Image Recognition:

Deep Learning Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322
Birhanu Hailu Belay, Gebeyehu Belay,
Tewodros Amberbir Hebtegebrial, and Didier Stricker

Modeling and Control of Electro-Hydraulic Actuator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332

Beza Nekatibeb, Venkata Lakshmi Narayana Komanapalli,
Mulugeta Debebe, and Endalew Ayenew

Wind Energy Conversion System Model Identification and Validation . . . . . . 343

Endalew Ayenew, Mulugeta Debebe, Beza Nekatibeb,
and Venkata Lakshmi Narayana Komanapalli

Evolutionary Based Clustering Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks . . . . . 354

Melaku Tamene, Kuda Nageswara, and Ravuri Daniel

SMS Based Agricultural Information System for Rural Farmers . . . . . . . . . . 366

Alemu Kumilachew Tegegnie, Tekeste Demessie Dagne,
and Tamir Anteneh Alemu

Review on Dynamic Stall Control in Airfoils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380

Abraham Adera and Siva Ramakrishnan

Simulation Study of Inventory Performance Improvement in Consumer

Products Trade Business Unit Using System Dynamic Approach . . . . . . . . . 401
Maseresha Agumas, Jeyaraju Jayaprakash, and Melkamu Teshome
xii Contents

Optimized Secure Scan Flip Flop to Thwart Side Channel Attack

in Crypto-Chip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410
Sivasankaran Saravanan, Mikias Hailu, G. Mohammed Gouse,
Mohan Lavanya, and R. Vijaysai

Inbound Multi-echelon Inventory Supply Network Model in Ethiopian

Leather Industry: A Simulation Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418
Robel Negussie and Jeyaraju Jayaprakash

Efficient FPGA Implementation of an Integrated Bilateral Key

Confirmation Scheme for Pair-Wise Key-Establishment
and Authenticated Encryption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
Abiy Tadesse Abebe, Yalemzewd Negash Shiferaw,
Workineh Gebeye Abera, and P. G. V. Suresh Kumar

Spatial Analysis of Groundwater Potential Using GIS Based Multi Criteria

Decision Analysis Method in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439
Agumase T. Kindie, Temesegen Enku, Mamaru A. Moges,
Berhanu S. Geremew, and Haimanot B. Atinkut

Hydrothermal Synthesis of Na-P1 Zeolite from Pumice to Enhance

Moisture Content and Water Retention Capacity of Sandy Soil . . . . . . . . . . . 457
Yonas Desta, Nigus Gabbiye, and Agegnehu Alemu

Spectrum Sensing Using Adaptive Threshold Based Energy Detection

for LTE Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
Hiwot Birhanu, Yihenew Wondie, and Fikreselam Gared

Evolving 3D Facial Expressions Using Interactive Genetic Algorithms . . . . . 492

Meareg Hailemariam, Ben Goertzel, and Tesfa Yohannes

Comparative Study of Modulation Techniques for 5G Networks . . . . . . . . . . 503

Getachew H. Geleta, Dereje M. Molla, and Kinde A. Fante

Phytoremediation Potential of Free Floating Plant Species for Chromium

Wastewater: The Case of Duckweed, Water Hyacinth, and Water Lilies. . . . . 519
Samuel Gemeda, Nigus Gabbiye, and Agegnehu Alemu

Rainfall-Runoff Process and Groundwater Recharge in the Upper Blue

Nile Basin: The Case of Dangishta Watershed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536
Abdu Yimer Yimam, Ayele Mamo Bekele, Prossie Nakawuka,
Petra Schmitter, and Seifu Admasu Tilahun

Testing the Bending Strength of Solid Bamboo and Hollow

Bamboo Particleboard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550
Melak Misganew and Nehemiah Peddinti
 Contents xiii

Investigations of the Influence of Fiber Orientation on Strength Properties

of Agrostone Composites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 562
Ephrem Zeleke, Mulugeta Eshetu, Taye Meheretu, Mehiret Betemariam,
and Samuel Melkamu

A Comparative Analysis of Watermarked and Watermark Images

Using DCT and SVD Based Multiple Image Watermarking . . . . . . . . . . . . . 574
Tarun Rathi, Rudra P. Maheshwari, Manoj Tripathy, Rahul Saraswat,
and X. Felix Joseph

The Role of Natural Ecosystem in Purifying Municipal Wastewater

in Bahir Dar Metropolitan City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 582
Fitfety Melese, Ayalew Wondie, and Nigus Gabye

Analysis of Flexural Strength of Jute/Sisal Hybrid Polyester Composite . . . . . 599

Yesheneh Jejaw Mamo and Ramesh Babu Subramanian

Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611

 Application of Lean Tools for Reduction
of Manufacturing Lead Time

Star Abrham(&) and Sisay Geremew

Faculty of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering,

Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
[email protected], [email protected]

Abstract. In the recent years, manufacturing industries are trying to improve

customer service by reducing wastes, reducing lead time, improving quality and
improving productivity using lean tools. Value Stream Mapping is one of the
lean tools for analyzing the current state and designing a future state for the
series of events that take a product from its beginning through delivery to the
customer. The goal of this study is to apply Value Stream Mapping in pro-
duction line of Fuel tank semi trailers at XYZ PLC Metal Industry for reducing
the manufacturing lead time. In this case study, the existing state of the pro-
duction line is mapped with the help of Value Stream Mapping process symbols
and the biggest improvement areas like excessive work in process and long lead
time are identified. Some improvements in current state Value Stream Mapping
are suggested and with these improvements future state Value Stream Mapping
is developed. Current state and future state of the production line are compared;
the results show that 47.45% reduction in lead time, 50.2% reduction in work in
process time, 59.2% reduction in total waiting time, 72.72% reduction in
number of work in process products, 7% reduction in number of workers and
over 89.65% increase in the yearly throughput of products.

Keywords: Manufacturing lead time
Value stream mapping
Lean tools

1 Introduction

In this competitive world, the competitive edge of manufacturing industries depends

largely on their ability of delivering their goods at low cost and high quality to
customers [1]. To achieve this edge, manufacturing industries use lean tools because of
their systematic approach in manufacturing waste and lead time reduction. Value
Stream Mapping is a powerful lean tool that combines material processing steps with
information flow as well as other important related data. The ultimate goal of Value
Stream Mapping is identifying and eliminating the different types of wastes in the
production line in order to increase its efficiency and productivity. This paper presents a
case study on the application of Value Stream Mapping in one of the metal industries in
Ethiopia facing different problems related to overall work efficiency, throughput and
production lead time. It addresses the implementation of lean manufacturing in the
production line of Fuel tank semi trailers with a focus on analyzing the processes;
identifying and minimizing wastes and reducing the manufacturing lead time.

© ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering 2019
Published by Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019. All Rights Reserved
F. A. Zimale et al. (Eds.): ICAST 2018, LNICST 274, pp. 1–10, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15357-1_1
2 S. Abrham and S. Geremew

2 Literature Review

Lean manufacturing is a systematic method for waste minimization within a manu-

facturing system without sacrificing productivity. Lean also takes into account waste
created through overburden and waste created through unevenness in workloads.
Working from the perspective of the client who consumes a product or service, value is
any action or process that a customer would be willing to pay for. Lean manufacturing
has different tools like Value Stream Mapping, Single-minute exchange of die
(SMED), Five S, Kanban, poka-yoke (error-proofing), total productive maintenance,
kaizen, cellular manufacturing, standardized work and one piece flow that assist in the
identification and steady elimination of waste. As waste is eliminated; quality improves
while production time and cost are reduced. Today the use of lean tools in the man-
ufacturing world has been increased because of their capability in manufacturing waste
and lead time reduction. Value Stream Mapping is a lean tool that helps users see and
understand the flow of material and information as products make their way through
the value stream [2]. The value stream includes the value adding and non value-adding
activities that are required to bring a product from raw material through delivery to the
customer. According to Hines and Rich [3] value stream includes the complete value
added as well as non-value added activities, from conception of requirement back
through to raw material source and back again to the consumer’s receipt of product.
Jones and Womack [4] explain Value Stream Mapping as the process of visually
mapping the existing stage of manufacturing as it now occurs and preparing a future
state map with better methods and performance. Singh et al. [6] have carried out a case
study to identify areas of wastes in manufacturing of components to meet the main-
tenance need of diesel traction fleet, Indian railways. They have tried to discuss the lean
implementation process with the help of Value Stream Mapping. As a result many
benefits are reported such as reduction in lead time by 83.14%, reduction in processing
time by 12.62%, reduction in Work in process inventory by 89.47%, reduction in
manpower requirement by 30% and rise in productivity per operator by 42.86%.
Vinodh et al. [7] apply Value Stream Mapping for enabling leanness in the manu-
facturing process of stiffer camshaft in an Indian camshaft manufacturing organization.
As a result, idle time has been decreased from 19,660 to 19,449 min; total cycle time
has been reduced from 539 to 525 min, number of work-in-progress inventory has been
reduced from 4,660 to 4,610 units. On time delivery of products has been improved
from 70% to 85%. Defects have been reduced by 4% and uptime has been increased by
1.72%. Seth and Gupta [8] have made an attempt to use Value Stream Mapping as a
technique to achieve productivity improvement at supplier end for an auto industry.
They reported a reduction in number of work in process inventory and finished goods
inventory as well as an improvement in production output per person. Like these
promising studies the authors were provoked to conduct this study with the lean tools
in one of the metal industries in Ethiopia to reduce the manufacturing lead time.
 Application of Lean Tools for Reduction of Manufacturing Lead Time 3

3 Research Methodology

To conduct this case study research we start with the review of different research works
on lean manufacturing and Value Stream Mapping applications in manufacturing
industries. This is followed by identification of critical shop floor and selection of a
product for the case study. And then, all important data related to the product such as
material & information flow, cycle time, value added time and non-value added time
for each process has been collected and current state Value Stream Mapping has been
developed to show the existing status of the selected production line. Then the current
state Value Stream Mapping has been analyzed; some improvements are suggested and
with these process improvements a future state Value Stream Mapping is prepared to
design a lean process flow.

4 Case Study

The case study has been carried out at XYZ PLC Metal Industry located in Mekelle,
Ethiopia. The company deals with manufacturing of truck mounted fuel tankers, 2 axle;
3 axle dry cargo trailers and semitrailers for transporting heavy duty equipment. Truck
mounted fuel tanker has been chosen as the candidate product for the case study. The
reason behind the selection of this product family is that they have high volume of
production; high number of manufacturing processes over the others and are highly
demanded by the customers when compared to other family of products. Figure 1

Fig. 1. Ratio of value added time, non value added time and necessary non value added time in
each work station
4 S. Abrham and S. Geremew

shows us the amount of value added time, necessary non value added time and non
value added times in each work station of Fuel tank semi trailers production line.
As it is shown in Fig. 1, there is a high amount of waiting time or non value added
time in each work station. So by reducing this waiting time or non value added time,
the manufacturing lead time can be reduced. The pie chart below displays the contri-
bution of value added time, non value added time and necessary non value added time
to a total time of the current Fuel tank semi trailers production line (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Percentage of value added time, non value added time and necessary non value added
time in the production line

This study continues with mapping of current state of Fuel tank semi trailers
production line. The mapping is done in software using various process symbols of
Value Stream Mapping to visualize the flow of material and information as the product
takes its way in the production line. Mapping is carried out keeping in view of the lean
manufacturing principles as discussed by Rother and Shook [5] and Seth and Gupta [6].
These principles are: define value from your customer’s perspective; identify the value
stream; eliminate the seven deadly wastes; make the work flow; pull the work rather
than push it; and pursue to perfection level. So the main idea of this work is to give a
clear view of how lean practices and Value Stream Mapping can be applied to a
production line of Fuel tank semi trailers to reduce manufacturing lead time.

5 Results and Discussion

5.1 Current State Value Stream Mapping

Value Stream Mapping helps in visualization of station cycle times, inventory buffers,
material and information flows in the entire transformation of a product from raw
material to the end product. Figure 4 shows a Value Stream Mapping that indicates a
pictorial representation of the data for the Fuel tank semi trailers production line. The
timeline at the bottom of the map shows the value added and non value added times.
The rectangle blocks represent process stations, the triangles represent the waiting
times at each process station. The figure inside the rectangular box represents the
average value added time and the figures under the triangles in-between process
 Application of Lean Tools for Reduction of Manufacturing Lead Time 5

stations represent the non-value added time. The cycle time is calculated in
hours/batch. The available time is calculated based on regular production time of 8 h
per shift. As it is shown in the timeline of the current state value stream mapping, the
total task time or cycle time of the fuel tanker is 263.01 h consisting of 201 h of value
added time and 62.01 h of necessary non-value added time. This indicates that the fuel
tanker spends a total of 263.01 h being processed at different work stations. The fuel
tanker also stays for about 1252.3 h as work in process product starting from the
cutting station to the last finishing work station. There is a total of 1059.9 h of waiting
time through all stations that indicates the average waiting time of the fuel tanker per
work station is about 96.51 h. The sum of the value added and non-value added time
also known as the lead time is also calculated to be 1324.6 h. This means a single fuel
tanker that could be made in 263.01 h is taking 1324.6 h to be produced due to non
value added activities in the current state Value Stream Mapping. The total distance
travelled by the worker and materials in the current production process is also calcu-
lated to be 1787 m. The Takt time; the rate at which one product has to come out of the
manufacturer to meet the customer demand is calculated to be 53.5 h by dividing the
available working hours per year which is 5940 h to customer requirement of products
per year which is 111 fuel tankers. The comparison analysis of Takt time and cycle
time of the processes is shown in figure below (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3. Takt time versus cycle time before improvement

As the graph shows, the production line is not balanced because the tasks are not
uniformly distributed among the work stations. In some of the work stations, there is a
lot of free time for workers. This shows that the line is capable of making more
products but there is a need to have the line balanced. The line balancing efficiency for
the workloads at the eleven work stations of the production line is calculated as the
ratio of total processing time and the value of multiplication of actual workstation
number with the largest assigned cycle time. The total processing time is equivalent to
 6
S. Abrham and S. Geremew

Fig. 4. Current state value stream mapping

 Application of Lean Tools for Reduction of Manufacturing Lead Time 7

the sum of the operation cycle times which gives 263 h whereas the actual number of
workstations is 11 and the largest assigned cycle time is 53 h (assembly work station).
Thus, the line balancing efficiency is found to be 45.1% as calculated below.

P Line balancing efficiency

¼ Total processing time=ðNo of stations  Longest processing timeÞ
ð1Þ
Line balancing efficiency ¼ 263 h=ð11  53 hÞ
Line balancing efficiency ¼ 45:1%

Once the current state Value Stream Mapping is completed, the next step is to look
for possible improvements and start outlining a future state Value Stream Mapping.
The main goal of developing future state Value Stream Mapping is to eliminate
identified wastes and make a continuous and smooth flow that generates shortest lead-
time, highest quality and lowest cost. Different types of wastes have been identified
from the current state Value Stream Mapping. The identified wastes have been reduced
by applying different lean tools such as line balancing and First in First Out rule to
prepare a future state Value Stream Mapping. The Future State Value Stream Mapping
shows how the shop floor will operate after lean improvements are implemented.

5.2 Combining Similar Operations and Line Balancing

In sanding, anti rust, stucco and painting work stations; the cycle time and the number
of operators were high. So to reduce that, the operations have been combined to be
performed in one big work station by balancing the line; and the sanding operation has
been started to be performed by the workers of anti rust and stucco painting work
stations since it takes a small amount of time. As a result, the number of workers has
been reduced from 72 to 67. The comparison analysis of Takt time and cycle time of
processes after balancing the line is shown in figure below.

Fig. 5. Takt time versus cycle time after combining work stations

As it is shown in Fig. 5, the tasks are uniformly distributed among work stations
and the line is balanced with all processes. This means that the line is capable of
making more products than before and on the basis of the collected processing time
8 S. Abrham and S. Geremew

data, line balancing efficiency is calculated to see the improvements in the proposed
state of a value Stream. The total processing time is equivalent to the sum of the
operation cycle times which gives 263 h whereas the actual number of workstation is
nine as a result of combining the sanding, antirust and stucco operations to be per-
formed in one work station and the largest assigned cycle time is 53 h (assembly work
station). Thus, the line balancing efficiency is found to be 55.13% as calculated below.

P Line balancing efficiency

¼ Total processing time=ðno of stations  longest processing timeÞ
ð2Þ
Line balancing efficiency ¼ 263 h=ð9  53 hÞ
Line balancing efficiency ¼ 55:13%

From the above result, the improved line balancing efficiency of the production line
is 55.13%. This result is better in comparison with the previous line balancing effi-
ciency but there is a room for improvement of the production line using other lean tools
and techniques.

5.3 One Piece Flow and First in First Out (FIFO) Techniques
One piece flow means components are produced one by one, and each component
progresses instantly from one operation to the next without having to wait in a buffer.
In the current production process, the product passes through the work stations in a
batch mode. This results in high travelling distance, high lead time and high work in
process time. In order to keep the flow continuous that leads to reduction in buffer time,
one piece flow and FIFO technique have been applied. One piece flow technique has
been applied in the production line to transfer the products from one station to another
station one by one rather than in a batch in order to eliminate all the waste. The FIFO
technique has been also applied to process and deliver the products to the next station
in the same order they entered the first work station. This results in clear and smooth
flow with reduced waiting time and reduced inventory (Fig. 6).
In the developed future state value stream mapping, one piece flow and First in First
out techniques have been implemented to reduce the inventory time and lead time. As a
result, Information flow is improved and Entire system is converted from push system
to pull system. After these lean techniques are applied, the software automatically
calculated the improved performance indicators result as follows. The time the fuel
tanker spends as work in process product starting from the cutting station to the
finishing station has been reduced from 1252.3 h to 623.71 h; the total waiting time
(work in process inventory time) between stations has been reduced from 1060 h to
432.74 h. This means the average waiting time of the fuel tanker per work station has
been reduced from 96.51 h to 39.36 h and the sum of the value added and non-value
added time also known as the lead time has been reduced from 1324.6 h to 696.01 h by
combining similar operations, balancing the line and applying FIFO rule. This indicates
that a single fuel tanker that could be made in 263.01 h is taking 696.01 h to be
produced in the improved Value Stream Mapping. The total travelled distance between
stations has been also reduced from 1787 m to 1017 m. As it is observed from the
result of the Value Stream Mapping, every unit of fuel tanker come out with in 53.5 h’s
 Application of Lean Tools for Reduction of Manufacturing Lead Time

Fig. 6. Future state value stream mapping after lean tools implementation
9
10 S. Abrham and S. Geremew

interval and the line balancing efficiency has been improved from 45.13% to 55.13%
by combining similar operations.

6 Conclusion

The goal of this paper was to reduce manufacturing lead time in the production line of
Fuel tank semi trailers at XYZ PLC Metal Industry using Value Stream Mapping and
other lean approaches. Based on the findings of the research; comparison between the
current state and future state of the production line was made. The results show that
47.45% reduction in lead time, 50.2% reduction in work in process time, 59.2%
reduction in total waiting time, 72.72% reduction in number of work in process
products, 7% reduction in number of workers and over 89.65% increase in the yearly
throughput of products. Hence, from the findings of this research it can be concluded
that Value Stream Mapping and other lean tools are effective tools for identifying and
reducing the non-value added activities, shortening the lead time for on-time delivery
of products and enabling the companies to move towards their ultimate goal leading to
profitability.

References
1. Onesime, O.C.T., Xu, X., Zhan, D.: A decision support system for supplier selection process.
Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Mak. 03, 453 (2004). http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.
1142/S0219622004001197#citedBySection
2. Lovelle, J.: Mapping the value stream. IIE Solut. 33(2) (2001). http://proquest.umi.com/
pqdweb?did=68597087&sid=3&Fmt=4&clientId=10342&RQT=309&VName=PQD
3. Hines, P., Rich, N.: The seven value stream mapping tools. Int. J. Oper. Prod. Manag. 17(1),
46–64 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1108/01443579710157989
4. Jones, D., Womack, J.: Seeing the Whole: Mapping the Extended Value Stream. Lean
Enterprise Institute, Massachusetts (2000)
5. Rother, M., Shook, J.: Learning to See–Value-Stream Mapping to Create Value and Eliminate
Muda, pp. 1–4. Lean Enterprise Institute, Cambridge (2009)
6. Singh, B., Garg, S.K., Sharma, S.K., Grewal, C.: Lean implementation and its benefits to
production industry. Int. J. Lean Six Sigma 1(2), 157–168 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1108/
20401461011049520
7. Vinodh, S., Arvind, K.R., Somanaathan, M.: Application of value stream mapping in an
Indian camshaft manufacturing organization. J. Manuf. Technol. Manag. 21(7), 888–900
(2010). https://doi.org/10.1108/17410381011077973
8. Seth, D., Gupta, V.: Application of value stream mapping for lean operations and cycle time
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 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management
Scenarios for Reducing Soil Erosion in Data
Scarce Regions, Blue Nile Basin

Berhanu M. Mekuria1 and Mamaru A. Moges2,3(&)

1
Amhara Design Supervision Works Enterprise, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
2
Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute
of Technology, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 26, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
3
Blue Nile Water Institute, Watershed Hydrology Directorate,
Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
[email protected]

Abstract. This study presents modeling runoff and sediment with management
scenarios for watershed management and resource erosion in Koga watershed
using AnnAGNPS model. Calibration of the model was carried from 1988–2001
and validation from 2002–2007. The result of sensitivity analysis indicated that
the CN was the most sensitive parameter to runoff and peak runoff rate whereas
LS and K-factor were for sediment yield following RF, and these parameters
were subjected to calibration. For model calibration, R2 of 0.69, 0.35, 0.55; NSE
of 0.69, −0.38, 0.55; RSR of 0.54, 1.14, 0.67; and PBIAS of 0.07%, −80.56%
and 4.09% were obtained for surface runoff, peak runoff rate, and sediment load,
respectively. Similarly validation results indicated an R2 of 0.76, 0.54, 0.62;
NSE of 0.76, 0.38, 0.62; RSR of 0.43, 0.71, 0.56, and PBIAS of 2.31%,
−36.58% and 5.68% for surface runoff, peak runoff rate, and sediment load,
respectively. Where the model efficiency was rated at the range of fair to
excellent for three of the outputs of the model for both calibration and validation
period. Only 21.5% of the area was able to generate the 78.8% of total soil
erosion, with higher than tolerable limit. Hence converting of 21.5% of highest
eroding cropland cells either to forest or grassland would reduce soil erosion,
sediment yield and load significantly. Ultimately it would help to reduce the
sedimentation in Koga dam which could result in reduction of storage capacity.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin
Koga watershed
Runoff
Sediment yield

AnnAGNPS

1 Introduction

1.1 Background
Soil erosion, which accelerated by anthropogenic effects which is resulting soil degra-
dation and becoming a severe ecological challenge worldwide [1]. Mainly it is aggravated
by rapid population growth, deforestation, unsuitable land cultivation, uncontrolled and
overgrazing [2]. It results the non-point source (NPS) pollutants is inflow in to surface
water system from agricultural watersheds. Intensive agriculture has been long
© ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering 2019
Published by Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019. All Rights Reserved
F. A. Zimale et al. (Eds.): ICAST 2018, LNICST 274, pp. 11–31, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15357-1_2
12 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

recognized as a major source of NPS pollutants such as sediment, nutrients and pesticides
which are the major cause of water-quality degradation [3]. This results eutrophication on
reservoirs and loss of valuable essential nutrients and fertile topsoil [4] and reduces
productivity. Across the globe soil erosion causes the largest contaminant of surface
water which the leading pollution problem in rivers and streams [5].
In Ethiopia soil erosion is considered as the main challenge for agriculture due to its
capability to reduce productivity [6]. Particularly in the highland areas and which with
43% of the total area of the country [7] soil erosion is at high rate and threatening
productivity. In the Blue Nile basin, specifically in In Koga Watershed there was con-
tinuous soil erosion challenges in Koga watershed [8] and it decreases farm income [9]. In
order to rescue the soil erosion best management practices has to be identified and targeted
for watershed management. To accomplish this watershed models could play key role for
evaluating the runoff, sediment and source areas in the watersheds to reduce soil erosion.
Watershed models were developed to describe help to understand the watersheds
management dynamics [10]. For example it helps to understand the land degradation
related to soil erosion [11], and help to identify recommendable solutions through best
management practices [12]. In addition models also could help for planning effective
landscape interventions to reduce land degradation and requires knowledge on spatial
distribution of runoff [13]. Hence models for predicting sediment yield based on dif-
ferent management scenario are very important for reducing threats of the soil erosion.
There have been different watershed models for predicting runoff, sediment load and
other hydrological variables including Areal Non-point Source Watershed Environment
Response Simulation-2000, ANSWERS-2000 [14], Soil and Water Assessment Tool,
SWAT [15], Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source, AnnAGNPS [16]. The
AnnAGNPS model has been applied worldwide and proved as very effective tool for
identifying erosion source areas. It helps in decision-making processes for adopting
BMPs and/or conservation programs. Where NPS pollution control can be achieved in the
most efficient way [17, 18]. Some of the models have been developed and tested in
different part of the world such as in the United States [17], Norway [19], China [18],
Island [20], Canada [21], Spain [22], Belgium [23], and Portugal [24]. In Ethiopia,
AnnAGNPS model has been used in some parts of the country by [25–28]. Among these
models AnnAGNPS was widely applicable in the range of watershed to predict flow,
sediment, and nutrients [29].
Predicting the sediment load from rivers is important for estimating the siltation of
artificial and natural reservoirs [30]. Modeling of runoff and sediment would help
evaluation of soil erosion and loss of nutrient [31] from watersheds. Hence looking for
the model which will mainly predict the runoff and sediment in identifying the source
areas for simulating the management scenario for reducing erosion is paramount. In this
regard this study chooses the AnnAGNPS model for predicting runoff, peak runoff rate
and sediment yield in the study area. Simulation and investigation of sources soil
erosion in the agricultural watersheds such as in the Koga watershed was vital. Because
in less than 2 km upstream of the watershed was existing dam with an irrigation
potential of 7000 ha which has been started since 2007. Hence effective watershed
management and planning is critically needed reduce the soil erosion. This will help to
minimize the inflow of sediment in to the reservoir. Therefore the objectives of this
study were trifold (1) to evaluate capability of the AnnAGNPS model to predict the
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 13

runoff and sediment yield, (2) to assess the sediment yield and runoff generation with
respect to different land use practice and (3) to identify the source areas (hot spots) of
erosion and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative BMPs scenarios with its impact on
soil erosion, sediment yield and sediment load of Koga watershed.

2 Research Methodology
2.1 Description of the Study Area
Koga watershed with 293 km2 in lies in the head water of the Blue Nile basin. Geo-
graphically it is located at 37°2ʹ0ʺ to 37°19ʹ0ʺE longitude and 11°10ʹ0ʺ to 11°25ʹ0ʺN
latitude with altitude range 1883 to 3084 a.m.s.l. (Fig. 1). The upland of the watershed is
narrow and mountainous while the downstream flat and gentle slope [32]. The climate in
the watershed is categorized under subtropical climate zone (Yeshaneh et al. 2013).
Where the weather condition is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons and cold
locally known as “woina dega”. The rainfall is mono-modal which lasts from end of
May to end of September. The mean annual rainfall in the watershed was 1403 mm from
1988 to 2007. The annual average minimum and maximum temperature in the water-
shed was 11.5 °C and 27 °C, respectively. The major crops grown in the watershed
were teff, millet, maize, barley, wheat, rice, pulses, oilseed and potatoes. The soil type
constitutes 32.2% Nitosols, 24.7% Vertisols, 16.4% Alisols, 15.4% Luvisols, 9.7%
Leptosols and 1.6% Regosols. The land use in the watershed was characterized as
71.32% cropland, 12.76% forest, 10.29% pasture and 5.62% built up.

Fig. 1. Relative and geographical positioning of the study area

14 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

2.2 Data
Primary data such as observation of operation and management in the watershed,
hydro-geological features, visiting detail investigation for specific sites for a confi-
dential conceptual model and confirmation of the secondary data collected at the
deskwork were performed. Main data type used for this study was presented in Table 1
with the source availability and duration. Details on description of data input types used
were presented in the following sub sections.
Climate Data
Daily climate variables such as precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature,
dew-point temperature, solar radiation and wind speed were required by AnnAGNPS
model. This helps for the model simulation to consider the temporal and spatial climate
variability. The nearest weather stations for Koga watershed were Meshanti, Adet,
Dangila and Bahir Dar. Precipitation was obtained from Meshanti, Adet and Dangila.
Temperature data was used from stations of Adet, Dangila and Bahir Dar stations.
Similarly from Adet and Bahir Dar stations relative humidity for calculating of dew
point temperature Sunshine for computation of solar radiation and wind speed.
Thiessen polygon method was used for estimating the areal climate data from the
selected stations. Climatic data quality has also been be carried out. The consistency of
the data was tested by a double mass curve whereas homogeneity and trend analysis of
the data were tested using RAINBO software version 2.2 [33]. The data quality tests
indicated that the time series of climatic data was found consistent and homogenous.
Station-average method (for missing data less 10%) and normal ratio method (for
stations with missing data greater than 10%) was used to fill the missed data [34].
Topography Data
DEM processing (Watershed delineation) was based on an outlet location and two user-
defined network parameters, (i) the high source area (CSA) and (ii) the minimum
source channel length (MSCL). The watershed discretization was to form homoge-
neous drainage areas (cells). The hydrographic network segmentation into channels
(reaches) was performed using TopAGNPS and AgFlow programs integrated with
AnnAGNPS and MapWinGIS interface. The geometry and the density of the drainage
network in the watershed were set by fixing the CSA to 20 ha and the MSCL to 140 m.
Hydrological Data
The runoff and sediment data was necessary for performing calibration and validation
of the AnnAGNPS. The data was collected from Ministry of Water Irrigation and
Electricity (MoWIE). Twenty years daily flow data were collected (1988 to 2007) from
Koga watershed gaging station near Merawi. Where the data collected was the stream
which includes direct runoff and base flow. AnnAGNPS model does not simulate base
flow contribution to stream flow. However in order to evaluate the observed and
simulated runoff the base flow was separated from the observed stream flow records to
get the observed runoff. This was carried out using the Water Engineering Time Series.
Land Use/Land Cover Data
The land use map for Koga watershed obtained from Ministry of Water and Irrigation
Electricity (MoWIE). The watershed was classified in to four major types of land use
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 15

(Table 2). The major crops grown in the watershed were teff, millet, maize, barley,
wheat, rice, pulses, oilseed, and potatoes. The dominant land use was assigned to each
AnnAGNPS cell. There were five types of land use identifier (cropland, pasture, forest,
rangeland, and urban) in the AnnAGNPS model. Crop management operation in the
watershed was vital to estimate the sediment yield [18]. It was prepared based on field
observation in the watershed and RUSLE as recommended by [35].
Soil Data
Soil physical properties such as particle size fraction, depth, texture, field capacity and
wilting point were required by the AnnAGNPS model. Organic matter content, PH,
bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil hydrologic group and soil erodi-
bility factor were also required as the model input. Soil layer particle size fraction,
depth, texture, PH and organic matter content were extracted from the soil data
obtained from the Amhara Design and Supervision Works Enterprise [36]. Soil Plant
Air Water, SPAW [37] was used to estimate the soil hydraulic parameters such as
saturated hydraulic conductivity, field capacity, bulk density and wilting point of the
soil. The soil erodibility (K) was computed based on [38].
Sediment Data
The sediment data collected at the gaging station of the Koga watershed was used for
was used for calibration and validation of the runoff from 1988 to 2007. Nevertheless,
for sediment data is not enough to carry out the calibration and validation as measured
values obtained from the Ministry of Water and Electricity were scarce where the 63
event sediment data in the years of 1990–2011 were used to generate the observed data
for calibration using the rating curve.

2.3 AnnAGNPS Model Description

The AnnAGNPS [16] model is a distributed physically based, continuous simulation,
daily time step model. It was developed through a project between the USDA Agri-
cultural Research Service (ARS) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service
(NRCS). AnnAGNPS model was planned to be used as a decision support tool to
evaluate the NPS pollution from the agricultural watersheds ranging in size up to
300,000 ha [39]. The AnnAGNPS hydrologic sub-model the SCS curve number
technique [40] was used to determine the surface runoff on the basis of a continuous
soil moisture balance. The model only needs an initial values of curve number (CN) for
antecedent moisture condition (AMC) II. Despite the model updates the hydrologic soil
conditions based on the soil moisture balance and crop cycle [41].
The model requires physical parameters of the watershed, soil data, climate data, and
land use and management data. Topographic Parameterization, TOPAGNPS [42] used
to extract the physical parameters including the cell and stream network information
from DEM. The output from TOPAGNPS was used by Agricultural Watershed Flownet
generation (AGFLOW) convert the output in to the format required by AnnAGNPS
[41]. Climate data can be either simulated by using t Generation of Weather Elements
for Multiple Applications (GEM) program or manually using historical data [43]. Spatial
data such as DEM, soils, and land use for AnnAGNPS model was prepared by using
MAPWinGIS. It also makes an intersection of each generated cell with land use and soil
16 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

spatial to assign each cell with specific land use and soil type. The AnnAGNPS Input
editor has a spreadsheet with all the data collected from the cell and the reaches. After
importing the parameters in the cell it will automatically sort and check all the infor-
mation within each cell. At the end the model simulation was taken place.

2.4 Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis is a measure of the response of selected output variables to vari-
ations in input parameters and/or driving variables [44]. It helps to look for the most
sensitive parameters which can significantly play role in the simulation of runoff, peak
runoff, and sediment. According to [25, 26, 44] parameters such as CN, RF, RUSLE
LS-factor, SRR, 10 Year Energy Intensity factor (EI10), soil erodibility factor (K),
sheet flow manning’s (SFM), concentrated flow manning’s (CFM) were selected for
sensitivity analysis. Likewise this study has also used this parameter for sensitivity
analysis. The relative parameter importance was evaluated by using [45]. Accordingly,
each selected parameter was changed with an increment of ±10%, ±20, ±30 and ±50
and by fixing the values of the remaining parameters.

2.5 Model Performance

The model performance during calibration and validation periods was evaluated on the
monthly time scale by using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The quali-
tative procedure consisted of visually comparing in data-display graphics of the
observed and predicted values. Quantitative evaluation was based on the range of
statistical summary. Mainly the model performance efficiency of the AnnAGNPS
model was evaluated by using statistical criteria’s. Which include the Coefficient of
determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliff efficiency, NSE [46], percentage bias (PBIAS), Root
Mean Square Error (RMSE) and RMSE-observation standard deviation ratio (RSR) as
presented Table 4. Where each statistical output of the model efficiencies were eval-
uated by using the class category based on [29].

3 Result and Discussion

3.1 Sensitivity Analysis of AnnAGNPS Model

CN was found the most sensitive parameter to surface runoff and peak runoff rate with
high output variations. For instance, the percent deviation of runoff and peak runoff rate
were −35.04 to +129.52%, and 17.05 to +17.34% respectively due to changes in CN
from −10% to +10% (Fig. 2). Similarly changes in precipitation had a great impact on
the output variations of runoff and peak runoff rate. LS-factor, soil erodibility factor
(K), concentrated flow manning’s (CFM) and surface random roughness (SRR) did not
significantly resulted variation in the hydrological outputs. Sediment yield was highly
sensitive to RF. Following RF, change in LS, K, CN, CFM, and SRR had an impact on
sediment yield in decreasing order. Unlike these parameters EI10 was less sensitive and
did not have significant effect variation of the model output.
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 17

Fig. 2. Sensitivity of (a) runoff, (b) peak runoff rate, (c) sediment yield by ±10, ±20, ±30 and
±50 input variation

The same trend with outputs was observed to ±20%, ±30% and ±50% change in
input parameters as the response to ±10% input changes but with a higher magnitude.
In Ethiopia sensitivity of CN by using the AnnAGNPS model has been observed from
studies by [25, 28]. In addition, CN higher sensitivity was reported in studies carried
out worldwide on as indicated by [20, 29, 44, 47, 48].
18 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

Calibration of AnnAGNPS Model

The curve numbers for each cell were proportionally adjusted, from the model default
value by trial and error for calibration period. LS-factor, K-factor, CFM and SRR were
varied, increased or decreased, while curve numbers were decreased or increased in the
contrary until the predicted runoff and sediment yield came closer to the observed
outputs. Reducing curve number by 8.8% from its original value, increasing LS-factor,
K-factor, CFM and SRR by 40%, 31.7%, 1250% and 625%, the best result was
obtained for runoff, peak runoff and sediment yield calibration.
Surface Runoff
The comparisons between monthly observed and simulated surface runoff amounts were
presented in Table 1 and Fig. 3. The coefficient of determination, R2, for runoff amount
was 0.69 (good correlation). This reveals that measured and predicted runoff was lin-
early correlated. The Nash and Sutcliff coefficient of efficiency, NSE, was 0.69 which
demonstrated good agreement. The RSR value which was 0.54 indicated good agree-
ment. On average, the model under predicted runoff only by PBIAS of 0.07% (Table 1).

Fig. 3. Observed and predicted runoff (a) scatter plot (b) hydrograph for calibration period on
monthly scale
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 19

Based on o model performance measuring criteria classification by [29] the results

indicated a good to an excellent agreement of simulated runoff by the AnnAGNPS
model. Closely related model prediction performance values were obtained during
calibration period time for AnnAGNPS model by [28] an R2 of 0.83 and NSE of 0.76,
[27] an R2 of 0.78 and NSE of 0.73, [24] an R2 0.87 and NSE of 0.73. The model
prediction for the runoff was relatively better than by [25] in Augucho catchment,
Ethiopia with an R2 of 0.57 and NSE of −0.69. The poor model prediction performance
was attributed to the shortfalls of Soil Conservation Research Program database and
inconsistencies in data collection.
Peak Runoff Rate
The model performance in predicting peak runoff rate was fair with an R2 value of 0.35
although according to the NSE, RSR and PBIAS value unsatisfactory correlation
between observed and simulated data exist (Table 1 and Fig. 4). The model over pre-
dicted peak runoff rate by PBIAS of 80.56%. The over prediction of the model for peak
runoff rate was also found by [25–28] The model prediction for peak runoff rate (NSE of
−0.38) was better than in the study conducted by [28] reported the NSE values of −33.

Table 1. Estimated statistical parameters of model performance for calibration and validation
period
Calibration on monthly scale (1988–2001) Validation on monthly scale
(2002–2007)
R2 NSE RMSE RSR PBIAS R2 NSE RMSE RSR PBIAS
Surface runoff 0.69 0.69 22.08 0.54 0.07 0.75 0.75 20.17 0.433 2.31
Peak runoff 0.35 −0.38 18.23 1.14 −80.56 0.54 0.38 13.25 0.71 −36.58
Sediment 0.54 0.54 0.20 0.67 4.09 0.62 0.62 0.19 0.56 5.68

Sediment Load
The evaluation of model performance observed and simulated sediment load provided
an R2, NSE, RSR and PBIAS were 0.55, 0.55, 0.67 and 4.09% respectively (Table 2
and Fig. 5). This indicated fair to an excellent agreement with the simulated value.
Similarly the study by [26] with NSE of 0.9; [28] with NSE of 0.71; [27] with NSE of
0.47; [25] found less result of NSE value of 0.158 during calibration. Comparing the
average monthly values of measured and predicted sediment load, the model under
predicted sediment load by 4.09%. The result in this study indicated better statistical
performance than the study conducted by [26] which reported that the model under
predicted sediment yield by 15%. Similarly in terms of performance the result provided
better result by [23] reported NSE values of 0.16, and [22] found NSE values of 0.2.
20 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

Fig. 4. Observed & predicted peak runoff rate (a) scatter plot (b) hydrograph for calibration
period on monthly scale

Validation of AGNPS Model

Validation of AnnAGNPS was performed on a monthly time scale from 2002–2007.
The observed and validated output results were presented in Table 3 and the statistical
parameters of the model performance were summarized in Table 1. Surface runoff
validation provided a very good agreement of 0.75 for both R2 and NSE, also the value
of RSR and PBIAS were 0.43 and 2.31%. This illustrated a very good to excellent
agreement respectively (Table 1). The comparisons between monthly observed and
simulated surface runoff amounts were improved during validation period (Fig. 6).
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 21

Fig. 5. Observed & predicted sediment load (a) scatter plot (b) hydrograph for calibration period
on monthly scale

Peak runoff rate during validation was in a satisfactory agreement with 0.54 and
0.38 value for R2 and NSE respectively and the model overestimated peak runoff rate
by 36.58% (Table 1). This indicated improved agreement than during calibration. The
comparisons between monthly observed and predicted peak runoff rate was indicated in
Fig. 7.
22 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

Fig. 6. Observed and predicted runoff (a) scatter plot (b) hydrograph for validation period on
monthly scale

The overall efficiency for predicted peak runoff rate was a little bit improved during
the validation period. The comparisons between observed and predicted sediment load
were shown in Fig. 8. The attained statistical parameters value of R2, NSE, RSR and
PBIAS were 0.62, 0.62, 0.56 and 5.68% respectively (Table 1 and Fig. 8). These
indicated a good to an excellent agreement. All statistical model performance mea-
suring parameters except PBIAS were improved during validation period.
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 23

Fig. 7. Observed and predicted peak runoff rate (a) scatter plot (b) hydrograph for validation
period on monthly scale

3.2 Sediment Yield and Soil Erosion

The soil erosion amount varied greatly with different land use types (Table 2). The
results indicated that the highest amounts of average annual runoff and soil erosion,
405.17 mm/ha and 10.99 ton/ha respectively. It were generated from cropland (culti-
vated agricultural land), followed by pasture (grass land) and urban (residential area)
which had contributed average annual soil erosion of 0.05 and 0.03 t/ha respectively.
Forestland had contributed the least soil erosion (0.001 t/ha). The study indicated that
erosion increases as the land use changed from grassland/forest land to crop land for
agricultural crop production. The spatial distribution in soil loss ranges from
insignificant amount (nearly zero) up to moderate in around middle of the watersheds.
It also ranges from low up to severe in lower parts and very severe to extremely severe
24 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

Fig. 8. Observed and predicted sediment load (a) scatter plot (b) hydrograph for validation
period on monthly scale

in the upper part of the watershed. Soil erosion highly affected areas were spatially
located in the narrow steep slope which is the mid upper part of the watershed. In
addition to the steep slope (>30%) mainly the cultivated agricultural land was more
highly susceptible to erosion.

Table 2. Average soil erosion of different land use types predicted by AnnAGNPS
Land use Area Percent Average soil Percent of Average soil
types (ha) of area erosion soil erosion erosion rate
(%) (t/year) (%) t/ha/year
Cropland 21,027.4 71.70 249.91 99.37 10.99
Forest 3,738.4 12.75 0.02 0.01 0.001
Pasture 3,061.8 10.44 1.00 0.40 0.05
Urban 1,501.1 5.12 0.56 0.22 0.03
Total 29,328.7 100 251.49 100 11.07
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 25

Soil erosion rates/soil loss predicted was spatially variable and reached up 82
t/ha/year (Fig. 9). The total soil erosion from the study watershed was estimated to be
276.37  103 t/year (Table 3). The overall average soil erosion estimation was
9.4 t/ha/year. This result was in line with the range of the average annual soil erosion
estimated for Ethiopian highlands with an average soil erosion of 9.7 t/ha/year by [49].
Soil loss tolerance was the maximum amount of soil erosion that can occur without
any reduction in crop productivity [50]. Worldwide accepted maximum limit of soil
loss tolerance was 11.2 t/ha/year [51]. Whereas for Ethiopia maximum tolerable soil

Fig. 9. Spatial distribution of soil erosion rates in Koga watershed

loss of 18 t/ha/year was recommended by [52]. Similarly [53] recommended

10 t/ha/year as the tolerable limit of soil loss. Therefore, by considering the recom-
mended value of 10 t/ha/year, a soil loss less than 10 t/ha was on 78.53% of the
watershed area of land and accounts only 21.2% of the total soil erosion. The remaining
area of land with 21.47% accounts 78.8% of total soil erosion indicating above the
recommended tolerable limit of soil loss. Out of the area that was above the tolerable
limit of soil loss 4.99% belongs to severe, 39.71% to very severe and 34.10% to the
extremely severe erosion classes (Table 3). Thus priority watershed management
should be carried out on those areas considered and found as highly affected area.
Where the best management practices recommended would reduce the soil erosion in
the watershed.
26 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

Table 3. Soil erosion rates numeric classification according to [11]

Soil Soil Area Percent Soil Percent Average
erosion erosion (ha) of total erosion of total annual soil
rate risk class area (t/year) soil loss erosion rate
(t/ha/year) (%) (%) (t/ha/year)
0–1 Very low 8750.0 29.83 449.4 0.16 9.4
1–3 Low 4778.8 16.29 10352.7 3.75
3–5 Moderate 5332.4 18.18 20740.7 7.50
5–10 High 4173.2 14.23 27053.1 9.79
10–20 Severe 1020.8 3.48 13788.6 4.99
20–40 Very 3422.9 11.67 109734.0 39.71
severe
40–82 Extremely 1850.7 6.31 94251.2 34.10
severe
Total 29328.7 100.00 276369.9 100.00

3.3 Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR)

Sediment yield is usually not available as a direct measurement, but it can be estimated
by using a sediment delivery ratio, SDR [54]. The SDR estimated in the Koga
watershed outlet by the AnnAGNPS model was about 25.5%. This indicated that soil
materials that carry non-point source pollutant loadings (soil material and nutrients
such as nitrogen and phosphorus) could be delivered to Koga watershed dam. Where
this dam is located 1 km upstream of the gaging station and commenced started in
2007. While 74.5% of the eroded soil materials were re-deposited in the catchment of
the watershed. The SDR information is helpful in planning future the watershed
management for effective reduction soil erosion [18] because it helps to estimate the
amount of sediment load from the soil loss estimation. To reduce soil erosion/sediment
loss it is important to have more soil deposited in the cells. Hence Best Management
Strategies has to focus on cells or sub basins which have more soil loss rate to reduce
further siltation of Koga reservoir.

3.4 Best Management Practices

Best Management Practices (BMPs) are treatment alternatives. Such as conversion
from cropland cells having erosion risk class of severe and above to forest or grassland.
It was demonstrated and simulated run in the AnnAGNPS model as a means to reduce
soil erosion within the watershed. Similarly to minimize and sediment load from the
watershed i.e. the cells that produce erosion above tolerance limit should be converted
to forest or grassland. Average annual values of soil erosion, sediment yield and
sediment load over twenty years of simulations (1988–2007) were presented in
Table 4. It was summarized based on reference to the different management practices
that were implemented. By implementing scenario III or V, the maximum soil erosion
in the watershed was reduced to less than 10 t/ha/year. This indicates that the landscape
soil loss became within the tolerable limit of soil loss. Converting croplands cells
 Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios 27

having severe and above soil erosion risk classes to grassland have the same trend as
converting to a forest (Table 4). Therefore converting the traditional agriculture in to
conservation agriculture with and afforestation in degraded areas could bring tolerable
soil loss in the watershed. The systems (scenarios) considered in this study have a
reasonable chance of being implemented with appropriate rural policy of development
including with some incentive for encouragement programs.

Table 4. Summary (1988–2007) of management scenario analysis and results of reduction for
sediment load & yield
Scenario Average Reduction (%) Maximum
No Description Runoff Landscape Sed. Sed. Soil Sed. Sed. landscape
amount erosion yield loading erosion yield load erosion
(mm) (t/ha/yr) (t/ha/yr) (t/ha/yr) (t/ha/year
I Baseline condition 354.25 9.42 3.08 2.41 0 0 0 81.34
(no change of
original land use)
II Cropland cell 338.73 6.21 1.89 1.53 34.10 38.53 36.51 39.90
having soil erosion
risk classes of
extremely severe
(40–82 t/ha/year)
changed to forest
III Cropland cell 301.26 2.00 0.45 0.39 78.79 85.41 83.63 9.91
having soil erosion
risk classes of sever
and above (10–82
t/ha/year) changed
to forest
IV Cropland cell 345.02 6.25 1.91 1.55 33.65 38.01 35.75 39.90
having soil erosion
risk classes of
extremely severe
(40–82 t/ha/year)
changed to
grassland
V Cropland cell 322.82 2.10 0.48 0.42 77.75 84.28 82.42 9.91
having soil erosion
risk classes of very
sever and above
(10–81.34
t/ha/year) changed
to grassland

4 Conclusion

The total annual erosion of the Koga watershed was 0.3 million metric tons, and of
which about 74.5% of the eroded soil materials was re-deposited in the catchment of
the watershed, with the rest (25.5%) delivered to the watershed outlet. The simulations
28 B. M. Mekuria and M. A. Moges

result of alternative management practices showed that converting 21.47% of highest

eroding cropland cells, to either forest or grassland would reduce soil erosion, sediment
yield and sediment load by 78.79%, 85.41% and 83.63% respectively, indicating that
the maximum soil erosion in the watershed was reduced to less than 10 t/ha/year which
means that the landscape soil loss was became within the tolerable limit of soil loss.
Above all the results obtained from applying AnnAGNPS on Koga watershed
demonstrate that the model has significant potential as a management tool for evalu-
ation of the effectiveness of alternative BMPs scenarios and their impact on soil ero-
sion, sediment yield and sediment load, long term monthly estimation of runoff, peak
runoff rate and sediment load, identification of hot spot area of erosion, and investi-
gation of sediment delivery characteristics. Hence, the method could be replicated in
other parts of Lake Tana sub-basin in general in the country for similar watersheds to
predict of runoff and sediment, assessment of conservation prioritization, to evaluate
the effectiveness management practices to reduce soil erosion.

Acknowledgment. We would like to than Bahir Dar University, Blue Nile Water Institute for
funding this research project. In addition our thanks also extended to the National Meteorological
agency (NMA) and Ministry of Water Irrigation and Electricity of Ethiopia for providing climatic
and hydrological data respectively.

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 Morphological Changes in the Lower Reach
of Megech River, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Getachew Asmare1(&) and Mengiste Abate2

1
Amhara Design and Supervision Works Enterprise,
P.O. Box-1921, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
[email protected]
2
Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering,
Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University,
P.O. Box-26, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
[email protected]

Abstract. This study examined and identify, map the plan-form changes and to
evaluate, investigate and explore the effect and impact or influence of
drivers/catchment process induces for the plan-form changes along a 44.43-km
stretch of Lower Reach of Megech River, Lake Tana Ethiopia, for the last 30
years by using secondary climate data, catchment characteristics, field obser-
vation, key informant interview and Satellite images of the year 1984, 1995,
2000, 2006, 2009 and 2014. For data preparation and analysis, Image analysis
software (ERDAS 2014), Arc GIS and Terrain analysis tools were used. Lower
reach of Megech River has undergone major plan-form changes for the past 30
years. At a distance about 19.3 km from the Lake, the river abounded the old
channel course and shifted from west to east and developed new channel which
directly drains to Lake Tana. The sinuosity of Megech River shows an overall
increase of 8.2% for the 30-year study period. Generally, the plan form alter-
ation of Megech River at different reach is due to natural and artificial influ-
ences. Hence, appropriate river engineering works should be practiced so as to
minimize the negative aspects of channel bank retreats.

Keywords: Anthropogenic impacts
Megech River
Plan form
Sinuosity

Meandering

1 Introduction

Morphology of river is a field of science which deals with the change of river plan form
and the shapes of river channels and how they change over time (Uddin et al. 2011).
Rivers can degrade or aggrade, widen or narrow, become coarser or finer, meander or
straighten, and braid. The response and the change can also change over the time and
space of adjustment.
The continuous change of river channels over time has been a major focus study in
geomorphology various techniques, such as sediment logical, historical sources, plan
metric resurvey, repeated cross-profiling, erosion pins and terrestrial photogrammetric,
have been used to measure riverbank erosion, bank collapse, deposition, channel
direction change and channel change.
© ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering 2019
Published by Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019. All Rights Reserved
F. A. Zimale et al. (Eds.): ICAST 2018, LNICST 274, pp. 32–49, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15357-1_3
 Morphological Changes in the Lower Reach 33

Plan-form/pattern or adjustment of an alluvial river is organized through a feedback

between channels, floodplain, bars and vegetation which in turn is controlled by the
spatial sorting of aggradation and degraded bed load and wash load sediments. The
migration of meandering rivers results from interactions among flow, sediment trans-
port, channel, land use land cover, human interaction and environmental activities form
that create complicated sedimentary structures and lead to the evolution of channel plan
form over time (Singh 2014). The interference of anthropogenic activities on the
natural river or environment influences the nature of the landscape processes and their
activities also the increasing extent of the human disturbances or anthropogenic
activities such as land feature changes, irrigation practice, urbanization, quarry mining
or production for construction material, channelization, gravel and sand mining and
hydraulic structures construction along or across the river have brought changes to a
power of changing the river channel characteristics’.
The variables that affect channel or river system, such as climate, geology, vege-
tation, valley dimensions, hydrology, channel morphology and sediment load, have
different causal relationships one with another, depending upon the time scale of
analysis which means spatial and temporal analysis. However, channel form in par-
ticular is mainly a result of the interaction between river flows, sediment yields (driving
variables), valley characteristics (boundary characteristics) and human activity (Taylor
2002). River form at all scales is controlled by a complex interaction of many envi-
ronmental variables and the relative importance of any particular variable in shaping
channel form depends on the time and geographic scale being considered (Taylor 2002)
which those factors can be either natural or human-induced and can act at different
spatial and temporal scales and river morphology investigates the evolution of fluvial
environments through the analysis of qualitative and quantitative aspects to interpret
valuable relationships.
The existence of infrastructural projects, urbanization, road construction, dam
constructions, sand and gravel mining activities, quarry production for construction
materials also lead to increase or decrease the stream transport capacity and thereby
aggradation or degradation processes could occur which impacts the plan form and
shape of the river (Abate et al. 2015).
Morphometric parameters, such as channel width, water surface area and sinuosity,
were calculated in several studies to evaluate the migration of channel plan form
morphology. Bank erosion and deposition, channel pattern identification, bank line and
centerline shift and channel change caused by human intervention have been investi-
gated on the basis of remotely sensed data (Yang et al. 2015).
The river Megech is one of the four main rivers of Lake Tana sub basin, which
contributes flow for Lake Tana. The river is a major contributor to the building up of
the delta which was evidenced of severe bank erosion and rapid rates of bank line
retreat along the Dembia plain as we observed during site observation. The lateral
migration (right and left bank shifting) of the river results in displacement of population
and loss of fertile agricultural land as it is one of the most potential irrigation scheme of
lake Tana (Getachew et al. 2013).
This study examined and identify, map the plan-form changes and to evaluate,
investigate and explore the effect and impact or influence of drivers’/catchment process
induces for the plan-form changes along a 44.43-km stretch of Lower Reach of Megech
34 G. Asmare and M. Abate

River, Lake Tana Ethiopia, for the last 30 years by using secondary climate data,
catchment characteristics, field observation, key informant interview and Satellite
images.
The characteristics and dynamics of meandering rivers have been the subject of
extensive research, Megech River channel plan form geometry has been changed over
past years. Lateral migration of Megech River path specifically at the lower reach of
Dembiya Woredas is enormous. Though, the mechanism involved, causes of shifting,
migration, bank erosion, Valuable irrigated lands are lost because of riverbank erosion
are not yet well investigated. In addition, Investigation of interaction of human
activities and rivers has become an important problem because they have essential role
on rivers morphology. This study is equally important as it will offer the option of
using the capabilities of GIS and highly resolution Remote Sensing data or images (like
Spot Images, rectified Google earth images, topo map and latest DEM) rather than
using low resolution images like land sat image and 90 by 90 m DEM to solve problem
associated with river course changing, channel pattern, channel shifting, bank erosion,
bank line shifting, active and previous channel width and meandering at the study area,
but land sat data will show only center line of the river, does not show bank line, width,
delta, island and river spatial extents. This high resolution data’s can help in under-
standing how river features are clearly identified and showed, how fast or slow is the
river morphology is change. Previously studied shows researchers and other organi-
zations use different catchment area and catchment stream length for their work still
now a day they use the previous outlet for their watershed delineation. But now this
research will provide and answer as to why and how changes of channel occur by using
time series high resolution remote sensing data over decadal time scales are essential to
study plan form change.

2 Materials and Methods

2.1 Descriptions of the Study Area

The Megech River is one of the four tributary of Lake Tana, Ethiopia (Fig. 1). It rises
just from the nearest highlands of Gondar City, and has a catchment area of about
741.8 km2 and the catchment elevation is ranging between 1784–2960.65 m above sea
level. Approximately, the area where Megech River lays found between 12°45′25″N to
12°16′8″N latitudes and 37°33′19″E to 37°24′5″E longitudes. Megech River flows
southward crossing the Denbia floodplain into Lake Tana for a total river stream length
of about 92.6 km from the source to lake Tana but the studied reach of Megech River
has length of about 44.43 km; it starts from Bahir Dar- Gondar bridge and ends at Lake
Tana among the total stream length of 92.6 km of Megech River.
Major tributaries of Megech River are the Lesser Angereb, Keha Mezoriya and
there are small intermittent and perennial rivers in the catchment, which flow into the
main stem, Megech.
The farmers used the river for traditional irrigation agriculture for long years.
Recently, the Federal Government of Ethiopia and regional government of Amhara
plans a medium dam at the upper course of the river to irrigate the downstream of the
 Morphological Changes in the Lower Reach 35

Dembia plain. Denbia is one of the most important potential areas for irrigation like that
of Fogera floodplain in the above part of Lake Tana. Sand mining activity has also
practiced in Megech River.

Fig. 1. Location map of study area (Megech catchment and Megech River)

2.2 Delineation and Characterization of the Study Reaches

The study of lower reach of Megech river is divided into 8 sub reaches of channel
reaches and 34 cross sections (trans versed sections cross sections) based on channel
characteristics the above criteria (Table 1) that reflect changes in channel pattern,
dominant types of channel movement, channel bed morphology, and channel shifting,
widening, erosion, observation of cut off and confinement.
36 G. Asmare and M. Abate

The division of Megech study was made based on observations in channel pattern
change, channel bed morphology, channel shifting, widening, erosion, observation of
cut off and confinement. The methods described by Abate et al. (2015) were followed
for reach demarcation. In addition to that for this study the subdivision of reaches was
based up on the following criteria (Table 1).

Table 1. Characterization of the study reaches

Reach Cross Length Demarcation characteristics
section (m)
1 1 to 2 1850.6 Formation of delta and islands when the lake level
fluctuates (spatially or plain extent) which means when the
lake level decreases or drops there is delta and island when
the lake level increases or rises the island or delta was
submerged in the other hand back water effect affects the
outlet point to other direction
2 2 to 4 3210.9 ✓ Is located immediately u/s of Lake Tana, it is flat and
plain area
✓ There is more irrigation during winter when the lake
rerates (lake level drops and the water leaves the plain)
✓ There is over grazing land for cattle and facilitate for
sediment input in to lake during site observation
3 4 to 9 4761.3 ✓ Most sand mining activity area, pump irrigation in the
right bank of the river, construction of dyke during flood
mitigation area and artificial sand bag for ponding water
for pump suction hose during pump irrigation
4 9 to 13 4128.7 ✓ Pump irrigation and island formation
5 13 to 20 8946.5 ✓ Most river meandering area
6 20 to 28 7932.7 ✓ Formation of different river features area
7 28 to 29 1478.4 ✓ Most stable river channel formation (straight plan form
which is a more defined channel area
8 29 to 34 9612.8 ✓ U/s of the study area up to bridge and most regular
meandering area

2.3 Data Collection

Figure 2 shows general flow chart of the methodology starting from data collection.
Satellite images (1984, 1995, 2000, 2006 (Spot 5), 2009 and 2014 (Spot 5)), 12.5 m by
12.5 m DEM, field observation and information obtained from local people were the
main data for the analysis of Megech channel planform change. The Spot 5 imagery
has a ground resolution of 2.5 m by 2.5 m and gives clear channel information.
“On 11 Jan 2016, field observation and measurements were made on channel
width, available infrastructures around the river, sand mining activities, the extent of
bank erosion, over bank deposition, breaching points and existing irrigation practice.”
GPS points were also taken for accuracy assessment and for the interpretation of
satellite images.
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
I
Le père Honoré Le Bolloche, n'ayant plus d'ouvrage du tout, sortit de
l'apentis où il travaillait, fit trois pas dehors, et s'assit sur la chaise qu'il
venait de rempailler, car il était, de son état, rempailleur de chaises. Il
étendit d'abord sa jambe de bois, puis l'autre, chercha du tabac dans son
gousset, et, n'en trouvant pas, il se sentit pauvre.

Pauvre, Le Bolloche l'avait toujours été, mais il ne s'en était pas toujours
aperçu, ce qui constitue, au fond, la vraie manière de ne pas l'être. A
l'armée, par exemple, quand il était sergent de zouaves, de quoi
manquait-il? Le plus bel homme du régiment, la figure longue et
bronzée, avec un nez bien droit d'arête, légèrement aplati et large à la
base, une barbiche qui eût fait envie à plus d'un commandant--à cette
époque napoléonienne où il y avait des commandants si décoratifs--les
épaules effacées, le cou tanné et sillonné de ravins blancs, la poitrine
bombée, il jouissait de la considération de ses compagnons d'armes et
d'un traitement qui lui suffisait. Son livret ne portait, au passif, que des
punitions insignifiantes, pour quelques fortes bordées militaires à des
anniversaires glorieux, une poule chapardée à des Bédouins, deux ou
trois réparties trop vives à des chefs plus jeunes que lui: des misères.
L'actif était superbe; cinq campagnes, tout ce qu'on pouvait avoir de
chevrons, une citation à l'ordre du jour, la médaille militaire, un cor de
chasse de tir: la menue monnaie d'un général en chef. Plusieurs fois il
avait passé en triomphe dans des villes, sous des arceaux de lauriers,
marchant sur les fleurs, applaudi par les femmes au retour d'Italie ou de
Crimée. On le mettait en avant, ces jours-là, à cause de sa prestance, et
de quelque blessure qu'il avait l'esprit de recevoir aux bons moments et
aux bons endroits: une balafre de sabre en pleine tempe à Solférino, et
une balle dans le mollet à Malakoff. Le Bolloche aimait la gloire. Les
jeunes soldats, tout en l'admirant, le dotaient aussi d'une humeur
grincheuse. Mais les chefs, mieux informés sans doute, le disaient
seulement un peu haut d'honneur. Le ciel l'avait doué d'une santé à toute
épreuve. Le Bolloche était heureux.

Plus tard même, atteint par la limite d'âge, selon son expression, et sorti
du régiment, il avait rencontré quelque douceur dans cette vie civile dont
il médisait journellement autrefois. Habitué à être commandé et entouré,
sa liberté lui pesait, non moins que sa solitude. Encore vert, d'ailleurs, et
de galantes façons, il avait aisément trouvé à se marier. La femme n'était
pas toute jeune, mais lui commençait à vieillir. Elle apportait, du reste, ce
qui peut passer pour jeunesse aux yeux de bien des gens, une dot, une
petite maison bâtie dans un bas-fond, au-delà des octrois, et autour un
pré de quelques ares ou pour mieux dire deux bandes d'herbe en pente,
traversées, l'hiver, par un filet d'eau, dont il restait, l'été, un marécage en
rond, grand comme une aire à battre.

Le voisinage des joncs qui poussaient la, l'ignorance de tout métier, une
certaine adresse de main, furent causes que l'ancien soldat se mit à
rempailler des chaises. Il ne prenait pas cher. La pratique lui arrivait
abondamment du faubourg, où les enfants se chargeaient de lui donner
de l'ouvrage. Sa santé se maintenait. Et, plusieurs années encore, Le
Bolloche n'eut pas lieu de se plaindre.

Bien au contraire, une joie lui vint, la plus vive qu'il eût connue, et de
celles qui durent: un enfant. Il avait immensément souhaité une fille.
Celle que sa femme lui donna était rose, blonde et gaillarde. Le Bolloche
se reconnut tout de suite en elle. Ce fut une adoration immédiate. Il
voulut--bien que très peu dévot--la porter lui-même à l'église, et quand le
curé lui demanda le nom sous lequel elle devait être baptisée: «Appelez-
la Désirée, dit-il, car jamais je n'ai rien désiré tant qu'elle.»

Il prit soin d'elle, et l'éleva plus encore que la mère. Toute petite, avant
même ses premiers pas, elle se roulait dans l'apentis, tandis qu'il
travaillait. Elle riait, et il était content. Si elle pleurait, il avait des
inventions incroyables pour la consoler, il la berçait, il lui chantait, comme
une nourrice, des chansons qui n'ont que trois notes, de celles qu'on
entend dans les arbres, au temps des nids. A peine fut-elle assez sage
pour se tenir tranquille et assez forte pour plier un jonc, il lui apprit à
tresser des cages, des paniers, des bateaux qu'on allait ensemble lancer
sur la mare.

Puis l'amusement devint un art. Elle sut bientôt ce que savait le père, et
plus encore. Celui-ci n'en fut pas jaloux. Il lui confia les ouvrages fins, qui
demandaient une main agile, un peu de goût et d'invention. Et toutes les
fois qu'une chaise bourgeoise, non pas grossièrement joncée, mais
paillée en belle paille de seigle, d'une ou de deux couleurs, arrivait au
logis, avec un siège à remplacer ou une blessure à fermer seulement, Le
Bolloche en chargeait Désirée.

Ainsi élevée tendrement, entre trois personnes qui la choyaient à l'envie,-

-car Le Bolloche avait retiré chez lui sa très vieille mère aveugle,--il
n'était guère possible que l'enfant ne devînt pas aimable. En effet, on
n'aurait pu trouver, dans tout le faubourg et dans la campagne voisine,
une fille plus avenante. A quinze ans, on l'eût prise pour une femme
déjà. Elle était grande, bien faite, rose de visage, légèrement rousselée.
Ce n'est pas qu'elle eût les yeux plus longs ou plus larges qu'une autre,
mais elle regardait tout droit, si franchement qu'on devinait en elle un
cœur tout simple. Elle riait volontiers, et son rire demeurait dans la
pensée, comme une chose fraîche. Elle ne portait pas de bonnet, un peu
par économie, beaucoup pour montrer ses cheveux qui ondaient sur ses
tempes en deux écheveaux d'or, et qu'elle tordait par derrière, à la
diable. Son goût lui conseillait les robes claires. Elle piquait souvent un
brin de fuchsia rouge à sa casaque d'indienne.

Pourvu qu'il pût la voir, ou seulement l'entendre près de lui. Le Bolloche

ne trouvait rien à reprendre à la vie. Comme Désirée, pour causer, ne
s'arrêtait pas de tordre la paille, ils bavardaient en travaillant; comme elle
était déjà d'un âge qui fait songer, ils parlaient presque toujours d'avenir.

Ce fut à cette époque, précisément, que l'épreuve commença pour le

père Le Bolloche. D'abord la blessure de sa jambe, qui n'avait jamais
totalement guéri, s'envenima. Il eut beau jurer, la gangrène s'y mit.
Après des semaines de souffrance, il fallut couper la cuisse. Toute la
réserve du ménage s'en alla en honoraires de chirurgien, et en petites
fioles qui s'alignaient sur la cheminée, vides, avec des étiquettes rouges.
Le malade ne décolérait pas d'être au lit, et de voir couler son argent. Il
fut une saison entière convalescent. Et, quand il reprit sa place sous
l'apentis, il constata bien vite qu'il avait perdu de son corps beaucoup
plus qu'il ne croyait, hélas! la souplesse, l'énergie, cette vaillance de
muscles enfin qui est la bonne humeur de nos membres. Le mal l'avait
usé.

Désirée était là, sans doute, chaque jour plus experte, pour gagner le
pain de la maison. Grâce à l'activité de sa fille et à une légère
augmentation de prix, Le Bolloche espérait que les trois femmes, l'âne,
les poules et la chatte, qui formaient le personnel confié à sa sollicitude,
ne ressentiraient point trop les suites de cet accident qui, de simple
blessé, l'avait fait invalide. Il gagnerait moins peut-être, mais sa fille
gagnerait un peu plus: le résultat serait le même.

Il se trompait. Un second obstacle surgit, celui-là invincible. Ni le père ni

la fille ne refusaient le travail; ce fut le travail qui commença à manquer.
D'une saison à l'autre, la diminution des commandes se faisait plus
sensible. Il y eut d'abord des heures de chômage, puis des jours entiers.
En vain Le Bolloche, avec son âne et sa charrette, continua de parcourir,
chaque samedi, les quartiers suburbains, et d'envoyer aux fenêtres où
fleurissent les géraniums-lierres en éventail et les oeillets en pyramides
son cri traditionnel: «Pailleur! pailleur de chaises!» De moins en moins
son appel trouvait de l'écho. Et la cause? Le progrès, l'envahissement du
luxe qui, de proche en proche, des châteaux aux maisons des bourgeois,
et jusque dans les fermes, supplante l'antique tradition, et, à la place des
sièges aux armatures massives recouvertes de jonc, introduit les meubles
légers et à bon marché sortis des fabriques de Paris ou de Vienne.
Triomphe du rotin, des fauteuils d'étoffe, des tresses d'alfa, des
berceuses d'osier blanc, par lequel les rempailleurs étaient lentement
évincés. Un métier finissait.

Que d'autres ont disparu de la sorte! Combien d'humbles artisans ont

senti avec un étonnement désespéré l'outil tomber de leurs mains, et
l'état appris aux jours d'enfance, l'état qui avait honorablement nourri le
père et leur avait suffi à eux-mêmes une moitié de leur vie, devenir ainsi
progressivement hasardeux et ingrat! Est-il rien d'aussi dûr? Quelques-
uns sans doute peuvent chercher un autre ouvrage. Mais les vieux, pour
qui le temps de l'apprentissage est passé, accrochés à ces professions en
ruines, n'ont plus qu'à disparaître avec elles.

C'était le cas du père Le Bolloche. Le bonhomme le comprenait bien. Il

laissait les choses aller, avec cette arrière-réserve d'espérance que nous
avons, tant qu'elles vont encore. L'herbe commençait à envahir l'atelier
sous les bottes de seigle jaune qui pourrissaient par le pied. Dans
l'étang, les joncs et les roseaux, coupés ras autrefois, grandissaient, se
gonflaient, montaient en quenouilles. Et comme, ici-bas, la plupart de
nos tristesses ont un envers de joie pour quelqu'un, les fauvettes du
quartier ne s'en plaignaient pas, n'ayant jamais, ni leurs devancières,
trouvé au bord de la mare tant de duvet pour leurs petits.

Il attendit jusqu'au bout, jusqu'à ce que le dernier sou de leur épargne à

tous fût dépensé.

Et voilà que cette heure était arrivée. La grand-mère,--qui tenait les

comptes, de mémoire, bien entendu, et gardait la bourse,--en avait, le
matin même, prévenu son fils. Il fallait prendre une résolution, trouver
un expédient, car le pain du lendemain n'était plus assuré.

C'est à quoi le Bolloche réfléchissait, sa longue face encore allongée par

la tristesse, à trois pas de l'apentis, un jour de printemps.

Pour tromper sa passion de fumeur, il aspira deux ou trois bouffées d'air

à travers le fourneau vide de sa pipe, et la première idée qui lui vint fut
qu'il pourrait se priver de tabac. Il se sentait capable de ce sacrifice. Mais
il ne tarda pas à s'apercevoir que ce n'était pas une solution. Alors que
faire? Envoyer Désirée en condition? Jamais il n'y consentirait. Il aimerait
mieux mendier son pain. Dire à la grand-mère: «Nous ne pouvons plus
vous nourrir. Cherchez, demandez à l'assistance publique...» Allons donc!
Est-ce qu'un enfant peut seulement penser à cela? Vendre la maison? Il
faudrait en louer une autre, et les loyers avaient doublé, triplé, depuis
que Le Bolloche habitait son coin de pré. Où serait l'avantage?
Evidemment il n'y avait qu'un seul parti, dont sa femme et lui avaient
causé déjà: ils partiraient tous deux, ils laisseraient la maison à l'aïeule
qui était trop vieille, et à Désirée qui était trop jeune et trop aimée pour
porter un tel deuil.

Partir! Quand il fut arrivé à cette conclusion, Le Bolloche appuya son

coude sur sa bonne jambe et regarda lentement autour de lui, de ce
regard chargé d'adieux qui découvre toujours quelque beauté nouvelle
aux choses les plus familières. Le pré où l'herbe renaissait, où les
boutons d'or échappés à l'âne commençaient à s'ouvrir, lui parut
promettre une fenaison abondante. Les haies qui, de trois côtés,
couraient autour, n'avaient plus cet air souffreteux et défraîchi, ces
trouées lamentables qu'elles offraient jadis. Bien épinées, drues, tendues
de fil de fer aux endroits faibles, elles défendaient la maison mieux qu'un
mur. Et le mur qui longeait la route, pour un peu moussu qu'il fût, était
encore solide et d'aplomb. Le Bolloche avait souvent rêvé d'élever là,
pour son gendre, une maison semblable à l'autre qui était à mi-pente.
Ah! si le métier ne l'avait pas trahi! Quelle jolie vue on aurait eue des
fenêtres, sur la rue qui remonte vers l'octroi, éclairée au gaz, si gaie le
dimanche, si coquette avec ses cabarets peints de couleurs vives, ses
jeux de boules, ses charmilles et ses grands jardins tout roses de pêchers
en fleurs!

A ce moment, Désirée apparut au haut du pré, venant de la ville. Le vent

l'avait un peu décoiffée. Elle marchait, une main retombante le long de
sa hanche, l'autre passée au travers du siège défoncé d'une chaise qui,
pendue à son bras, l'enveloppait d'un disque inégal de rayons jaunes. La
jeune fille avait fait deux kilomètres pour trouver ce travail. Elle arrivait
sans se plaindre, contente même, dans la lueur du couchant qui traînait
sur le pré. Et quand Le Bolloche la vit, il comprit mieux encore que la
séparation d'avec elle serait la plus dûre de toutes, et qu'auprès de celle-
là les autres n'étaient rien.

--Eh bien! dit-elle de son ton de bonne humeur, vous demandiez de la

besogne, en voilà: une chaise comme vous les aimez, à rempailler en
gros jonc.

--Non, petite, répondit tristement le bonhomme, j'ai fini tantôt ma

dernière, et je suis assis dessus.

Elle approcha, sans comprendre ce qu'il voulait dire, s'étonnant

seulement qu'il fût sombre. D'habitude il était joyeux quand elle était
joyeuse. Qu'avait-il?

--Appelle ta mère, ajouta Le Bolloche, j'ai à lui parler.

Elle entra dans la maison, et la mère en sortit, toute petite sous son
énorme bonnet blanc. Le Bolloche emmena sa femme au bord du
ruisseau que longeait un sentier. Il l'avertit de son projet, non pas
rudement comme il avait coutume de le faire quand il lui disait la
moindre chose, mais presque doucement, très troublé qu'il était lui-
même et hors de son naturel. Désirée les regardait de loin. Elle les voyait
côte à côte, lui un peu penché, elle au contraire la taille cambrée et la
tête levée. Ils parlaient bas. Malgré le calme du soir, on n'entendait que
des bourdonnements alternés et le grincement régulier de la gaine de
cuir où s'enfonçait la jambe coupée.

Quand ils rentrèrent. Le Bolloche alla se placer en face de la grand-mère,

affaissée dans un fauteuil garni d'oreillers, à droite de la cheminée, et
porta la main à son front, pour saluer, d'un geste familier d'ancien soldat.

--Maman, dit-il, l'ouvrage ne va plus.

--C'est vrai, mon petit.

--Je mange encore beaucoup pour mon âge, continua Le Bolloche, plus
que je ne gagne. Ça ne peut durer: Il faut que je m'en aille avec
Victorine.

La nonagénaire, toute alourdie qu'elle fût par l'immobilité, eut un

tressaillement. Elle essaya, d'un mouvement instinctif, d'ouvrir ses yeux
morts, qui n'étaient plus qu'une fente mince dans l'enfoncement ridé de
l'orbite.

--T'en aller, fit-elle, et où t'en irais-tu, Etienne?

Le Bolloche se détourna à demi, comme si la grand-mère l'eût réellement

regardé et qu'il n'eût pu supporter ce regard. Il répondit, avec un peu de
confusion:

--Aux petites sœurs, Victorine prétend qu'on y est bien.

La vieille femme se souleva sur les bras de son fauteuil.

--C'est moi qui partirai, dit-elle, de ce même ton rude qu'elle avait
transmis à son fils.

--Non, maman, non pas! Tu es trop bien habituée ici. Nous sommes plus
jeunes, nous autres, le chagrin ne nous tuera pas!

--C'est que, mon enfant, rien ne m'appartient ici, je suis chez...

--Chez toi, dit rapidement Le Bolloche.

Et cet homme, qui était vieux aussi et infirme, eut, pour convaincre sa
mère, une inspiration de petit enfant. Il l'entoura de ses bras et lui dit à
l'oreille, avec un enjouement moitié voulu, moitié vrai:

--Maman, quand j'étais au régiment, et que je faisais les cent coups, je

dépensais plus que mon prêt, hein?

--Oui.

--Des cent sous, des dix francs par semaine. Qui est-ce qui payait?

--C'était moi.

--T'ai-je rendu l'argent?

--Non.

--Alors tu vois bien que tu es chez toi, maman, puisque je te dois!

Elle resta un moment sans rien dire, puis elle reprit:

--Je veux bien. Seulement tu emporteras tes bardes et du meuble, pour

ne pas arriver là-bas comme un mendiant.

--Pourvu que tu aies ta suffisance, dit Le Bolloche, je ne demande pas

mieux.

La grand-mère ne répondit plus. Le sacrifice était accepté. C'était fini.

Parmi les pauvres, les effusions de remerciements sont inconnues. Il n'y

en eut pas. L'aïeule, qui avait les mains jointes sur la poitrine, les souleva
seulement par deux fois, pour montrer combien elle était touchée.

Et ce fut tout.

Ils s'assirent pour souper, autour d'une salade dont le pré avait fait les
frais. Rendus tristes par la pensée d'un changement si grand et si
prochain, ils ne se parlaient pas. A quoi bon? Le même regret les
poignait tous. Ils avaient lutté jusqu'au bout. La misère était la plus forte.
A quoi bon?

Cependant Le Bolloche remarqua que la grand-mère ne mangeait rien.

Elle remuait les lèvres, comme si elle n'osait faire une question qui la
troublait. A plusieurs reprises, les mots s'arrêtèrent ainsi sur sa bouche.
Enfin, elle fit effort sur elle-même, et d'une voix toute angoissée:

--Etienne, dit-elle, est-ce que tu me laisseras Désirée?

Deux gros soupirs lui répondirent oui.

Alors on aurait pu voir le visage de l'aïeule, inexpressif et détendu

comme tous ceux auxquels aucune impression n'arrive plus par les yeux,
s'éclairer d'une lueur soudaine. La joie rompait la nuit de cette face
d'aveugle. Il semblait que l'âme s'en était approchée, et souriait au
travers. En même temps les deux époux regardaient Désirée du même
regard morne. La place que la jeune fille tenait dans le cœur de tous se
montrait ainsi, sans phrase, plus éloquemment que par des mots. Car un
enfant, cela se partage. Il n'en faut qu'un pour plusieurs vieux. Et quand
ces pauvres gens s'étaient unis pour vivre sous le même toit, la mère, le
fils, la bru, ce n'était pas seulement leur petit patrimoine qu'ils avaient
mis en commun, ni le courage qui vient de l'un à l'autre à ceux qui
travaillent ensemble, ni la mutuelle assistance que leur misère se prêtait,
c'était encore, c'était surtout la jeunesse de Désirée.

Le souper achevé, Le Bolloche se secoua un peu pour chasser cette

tristesse indigne d'un homme. Pendant que sa femme aidait la grand-
mère à se coucher, il entraîna Désirée dehors, et se mit à se promener
avec elle dans la tiédeur de la nuit déjà venue, depuis l'apentis qui
terminait la maison à droite jusqu'au clapier en treillage accolé au mur de
gauche.

S'apercevant qu'elle avait les yeux rouges:

--Allons, dit-il, Désirée, ça passera! Du courage! Regarde-moi, je ne

pleure pas. Et pourtant j'ai du regret de te quitter, va, surtout de te
quitter pas mariée.
--Pourquoi donc?

--Parce que c'était mon idée de te voir établie. Nous t'aurions choisi tous
les deux ton mari, un ancien soldat comme moi... tandis que là-bas, tu
comprends...

Il n'acheva pas sa pensée, et, croisant les bras, il s'arrêta, les yeux dans
les yeux de sa fille:

--Dis-moi au moins, fit-il, avant que je ne parte, une chose que je

voudrais savoir?

Elle le regardait, elle aussi, de son regard franc où des clartés d'étoiles
passaient.

--As-tu un amoureux? demanda le père.

Cela parut drôle à Désirée, qui répondit en riant, malgré son chagrin:

--Mais non, père, je n'ai personne.

--Au fait, tu ne sortais guère, et ils ne pouvaient pas te voir. S'ils t'avaient
vu, ceux qui sont en âge de chercher femme! Enfin, Désirée, si tu es de
mon sang, comme je le crois, tu n'épouseras qu'un ancien soldat.

--Un ancien?

--Oh! il peut être ancien sans être vieux. Pourvu qu'il ait porté les armes
et fait une campagne, cela me suffira, je serai content. Tout le monde
n'est pas médaillé comme moi.

--Sans doute.

--Pour le régiment, je te laisse à peu près le choix. Un zouave me plairait

mieux, naturellement. Mais tu peux aussi épouser un cavalier. Il y a aussi
de beaux petits dragons.

--Bien, répondit la jeune fille, un zouave ou un dragon.

--Même un chasseur à pied, reprit Le Bolloche. C'est un corps d'élite.
Mais pas un lignard, tu entends?

--Non.

--Surtout pas un civil! Quelle conversation aurais-je avec lui, quand je le

verrais? Rappelle-toi ça, Désirée: si tu m'amènes un bleu qui n'ait jamais
servi, je refuse!

Il était un peu solennel, disant cela, un bras étendu vers la ville. Cet
ancien sous-officier n'avait jamais pu se défaire d'un certain penchant au
mélodrame. La solennité de ses formes ne tirait pas, d'ailleurs, à
conséquence. Désirée ne l'ignorait point. Elle allait sans doute répondre
non pour lui plaire. Mais voilà que Le Bolloche, machinalement, laissa ses
yeux suivre la direction de son bras levé. Il aperçut les toits d'ardoise
étagés qui luisaient sous la lune comme des écailles d'argent, la ligne
montante des réverbères qui ne paraissaient que de misérables points
jaunes dans l'immensité bleue de la nuit, tout le quartier qu'il parcourait
si souvent depuis des années. Derrière ces fenêtres éclairées, que de
gens il connaissait, tranquilles, assurés de dormir demain dans la même
chambre où ils veillaient encore ce soir! Cette pensée lui fit mal.

Il se détourna brusquement et dit:

--Rentrons, Désirée, voilà le serein qui tombe.

II

Le lendemain, sur la route qui conduisait aux Petites Sœurs des pauvres,
à Jeanne Jughan, comme on disait dans le faubourg, l'âne traînait le plus
singulier chargement qui eût jamais pesé sur son bât de misère. C'étaient
d'abord, sur le siège de la charrette basse, Le Bolloche, en redingote
marron, coiffé de sa chéchia de zouave, et sa femme, dans sa meilleure
robe de futaine à carreaux, les yeux mouillés derrière ses lunettes de
corne; puis, juste sur la ligne des essieux, une pyramide composée d'un
coffre où se trouvaient les vêtements moins habillés du ménage, d'une
caisse percée de trous qu'habitait une famille de lapins habitués au jour
crépusculaire et, en couronnement, une bourriche d'où sortaient en
houppes blanches et noires, les plumes d'un couple de poules de
Barbarie, maintenu par des baguettes; enfin trois pots de basilic, un gros
flanqué de deux petits, luxuriants, arrondis, superbes, amarrés par une
corde sur le plancher du véhicule, terminaient le chargement en poupe. Il
y avait encore, entre les bonnes gens, à la naissance des brancards, une
petite chatte maigre et grise, compagne du rempailleur et qui, de temps
à autre, le long de la jambe de son maître, frottait sa tête de vipère.

Tout cela s'en allait cahotant, les gens, les bêtes, les meubles, vers la
demeure où tant d'épaves semblables les avaient précédés. Pour arriver,
il fallait trois quarts d'heure à pied, et une grande heure au train de l'âne.
Mais qu'importait à Le Bolloche? Il n'avait pas de hâte d'achever ce
voyage-là. Il ne criait plus comme autrefois par les rues: «Pailleur,
pailleur de chaises!» Il n'était plus rien dans le monde, pas même
tresseur de jonc, et il le sentait cruellement. Quand il levait les yeux, d'un
côté ou de l'autre, vers les maisons de ses anciennes pratiques, son
sourire navré répondait aux étonnements que provoquait son équipage.
Les petits garçons riaient, pieds nus sur les seuils, les grandes filles
paraissaient aux fenêtres, et d'un mouvement d'épaules, tenant encore à
brassées les paillasses qu'elles remuaient, se penchaient pour voir, à la
volée, ce qui se passait en bas. Ce déménagement leur paraissait drôle,
ils ne se doutaient pas du chagrin de ces deux voyageurs. Encore la
femme, plus douce de nature, se résignait-elle un peu. Mais l'homme
avait une douleur violente. Il s'y mêlait chez lui beaucoup d'orgueil
blessé. L'idée de s'enfermer, lui qui avait commandé une section, sous
l'autorité d'une femme, d'une religieuse surtout, l'irritait au plus haut
point. Il en voulait par avance à celle qui allait le recueillir. Et à mesure
qu'il s'avançait vers le terme de son voyage, son visage devenait plus
rude, ses sourcils se fronçaient: il avait son grand air des jours de revue.
Le Bolloche entendait en imposer dès l'abord. On ne le prendrait pas
pour un fainéant à bout de ressources, las de rouler et mendiant un
asile, non, sûrement; ni pour un homme sans caractère qu'on peut
commander comme un enfant. La première nonne qui l'apercevrait ne s'y
tromperait pas!
Enfin la route monta. Un moulin blanc se dressa vers la droite, et le
moulin touchait l'hospice. Avec une bande de pré qui les séparait, ils
occupaient tout le sommet de la colline. Les voyageurs s'arrêtèrent un
peu. En face, au bout du chemin, deux corps de bâtiments très élevés
s'avançaient en angle ouvert, masquant le reste de la maison, qui ne
montrait ainsi que ses deux bras tendus. Un mur d'enceinte tournait
autour et descendait la pente de l'autre côté. Des cîmes d'arbres, aux
feuilles nouvelles, le dépassaient çà et là. Toutes les fenêtres étaient
ouvertes.

Le Bolloche poussa l'âne jusqu'au pied d'un perron, et attendit.

C'est là comme dans une ruche: on n'est jamais longtemps sans voir une
abeille sortir. Une cornette parut, et dessous une sœur toute petite, toute
jeune et toute brune.

--Que voulez-vous? demanda-t-elle.

--Celle qui commande ici, répondit sévèrement Le Bolloche.

--Est-ce pour lui vendre quelque chose? La bonne mère est très occupée,
voyez-vous, et si c'était pour cela...

--Est-ce que j'ai l'air d'un marchand ambulant? répondit Le Bolloche.

Vous n'y êtes pas du tout, mademoiselle--il insista sur le mot, sachant
fort bien qu'il s'émancipait d'une tradition respectueuse--j'ai à lui parler,
une affaire à lui proposer, et même une bonne affaire.

La sœur jeta un coup d'œil rapide sur les voyageurs, le coffre, les trois
pots de basilic.

--Je comprends, dit-elle, mon petit bonhomme: je vais la chercher.

Et elle se détourna si prestement qu'il ne put savoir si elle avait disparu

derrière le pilier de droite ou celui de gauche.

--Petit bonhomme, grommela-t-il, en voilà une péronnelle, pour

m'appeler petit bonhomme!
Il se laissa glisser le long du marchepied, et se tint debout, les rênes de
corde passées autour du bras, la chéchia impertinente posée en arrière,
un peu de côté.

Une ombre courut sur le vitrage cintré du cloître, et une autre sœur
parut au seuil de la porte, de taille moyenne, celle-là, mais si frêle qu'elle
paraissait petite. Ses mains, quelle avait jointes sur sa robe noire, étaient
blanches et transparentes. Il eût été difficile de dire son âge. Tous les
traits de son visage très fin s'étaient encore amenuisés par la fatigue et
l'effort dévorant d'une âme ardente. On n'y voyait cependant pas une
ride. Elle avait dans le regard quelque chose d'enfantin, et en même
temps le sourire compatissant de celles qui ont vécu. Sa coiffe cachait la
couleur de ses cheveux. C'était «la bonne mère», une grande dame qui
gouvernait deux cents pauvres et soixante religieuses d'un signe de ses
doigts de nacre.

Elle considéra un instant l'équipage arrêté devant elle. Le coin de sa

bouche mince se souleva involontairement, par une surprise de sa nature
qui était vive et enjouée dans le monde. Mais tout de suite la volonté
réprima ce mouvement désordonné. Et elle dit, de sa voix qui n'avait ni
timbre ni chant, mais très douce pourtant:

--Vous venez pour entrer chez nous?

Le Bolloche, un peu déconcerté, répondit:

--Oui, madame, si vous avez de la place.

--Nous vous en ferons une, mon ami, et nous vous servirons de notre
mieux.

--D'ailleurs, je ne vous demande pas la charité, j'apporte mon ménage.

--Et jusqu'à votre chat!

--Tout cela est à vous, reprit-il en désignant d'un geste large l'âne, la
voiture et le chargement; je n'y mets que deux conditions.

--Lesquelles?
 --Tout à l'heure, une de vos
inférieures...

--Vous voulez dire une de nos sœurs?

--Oui. Je suis un ancien soldat, voyez-

vous: pour moi, tout ce qui n'est pas
un supérieur est un inférieur. Eh bien!
votre sœur m'a appelé «petit
bonhomme», je n'aime pas cela.

--Il faudra nous pardonner si nous

recommençons, dit la sœur, sur le
visage de laquelle le même sourire
léger reparut: c'est un peu l'usage chez
nous.

--Et puis, je voudrais savoir si on a la

liberté de son opinion ici? Je préfère vous le dire tout de suite, je ne crois
pas à grand'chose, moi, je ne suis pas dévot, je ne fais pas de mômeries.
Et si on n'a pas la liberté de son opinion, je me remmène!

Le Bolloche disait cela de son plus grand air. Il s'aperçut avec

étonnement que la sœur souriait pour tout de bon, d'un sourire si
épanoui, si profond, si jeune, qu'il en perdit contenance.

Dame, fit-il, puisque c'est mon opinion!

--Ne craignez rien, répondit-elle: nous avons plusieurs petits

bonshommes qui pensent comme vous.

Puis elle descendit le perron et vint donner la main, pour l'aider à sortir
de la voiture, à la mère Le Bolloche, tout effarée des audaces de son
mari.

Celui-ci avait déjà commencé à dételer l'âne.

--Conduisez-le à l'écurie, dit la sœur, là-bas... oui, c'est cela... tournez à

gauche... devant vous, maintenant.
Autour de Le Bolloche s'étendaient de
nombreux bâtiments de service,
porcherie, écurie, poulailler, étables, et,
sur la pente de la colline, du côté
opposé à celui de l'entrée, un vaste
champ de seigle avec des cordons de
pommiers nains. Dans les allées se
promenait une population lente,
voûtée, cassée, trébuchante, de
vieillards. Il y avait autant de béquilles
que de jambes saines. Le vent
maussade qui, là-haut, chassait des
nuées fumeuses, aurait pu, se gêner,
coucher à terre ces pauvres ruines
humaines. En les regardant, Le
Bolloche s'attendrit sur son propre sort.
Il détela l'âne tristement, l'attacha devant une crèche, et le combla de
foin. «Toi, au moins, dit-il, tu ne souffriras pas.» Ensuite il se mit à
décharger la voiture, et, commençant par la bourriche, il enleva les
baguettes qui retenaient captifs le coq et la poule. A peine sorti, le coq
battit des ailes, et chanta. La poule se frotta le bec aux touffes d'herbe
de la cour, et picora, sans le moindre trouble.

Le vieux Le Bolloche, qui avait en ce moment la comparaison triste, leva

les épaules.

--Les bêtes, murmura-t-il, ça ne s'aperçoit de rien: ici, là-bas, tout leur

est égal.

Et, du revers de sa manche, il essuya une larme qu'heureurement

personne n'avait vu couler.

(A suivre.)

René Bazin
 *** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK L'ILLUSTRATION,
NO. 2501, 31 JANVIER 1891 ***

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