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6 Random Variable
and Mathematical
Expectation
Introduction

B
e t w e e n
Sylvestre-François
Lacroix in 1816 and Louis Bachelier
in 1914, the concepts random variable and mean of
a random variable were invented. Some authors contend that
Simeon-Denis Poisson invented the concepts random variable and
expected value. Simeon-Denis Poisson, a French mathematician
Simeon-Denis Poisson known for his work on probability theory. Poisson’s research was
(June 21, 1781 – April 25, 1840) mainly on Probability. In 1838, Poisson published his ideas on
probability theory, which also included what is now known as Poisson
distribution. He published between 300 and 400 mathematical works including applications to electricity
and magnetism, and astronomy.

Learning Objectives

After studying this chapter students are able to understand

zz Why do we use random variable?
zz Why do we need to define the random variable?
zz the types of Random variables.
zz the probability function.
zz the distribution function.
zz the nature of problems.
zz the methods for studying random experiments with outcomes that can be
described numerically.
zz the real probabilistic computation.
zz the concept of mathematical expectation for discrete and continuous
random variables.
zz the properties of mathematical expectation for discrete and continuous
random variables.
zz the determination of mean and variance for discrete and continuous
random variables.
zz and the practical applications of mathematical expectations for discrete
and continuous random variables.

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6.1. Random variable Here X is a real number connected with the

outcome of a random experiment E. The details
Introduction:
given below
Let the random experiment be the toss
Outcome Values of Outcome Values of
of a coin. When ‘n’ coins are tossed, one may
(ω) X=x (ω) X=x
be interested in knowing the number of heads
(HHH) 3 (HTT) 1
obtained. When a pair of dice is thrown, one
(HHT) 2 (THT) 1
may seek information about the sum of sample
points. Thus, we associate a real number with (HTH) 2 (TTH) 1
each outcome of an experiment. In other words, (THH) 2 (TTT) 0
we are considering a function whose domain is
i.e., RX = {0, 1, 2, 3}
the set of possible outcomes and whose range
is subset of the set of real numbers. Such a From the above said example, for each
function is called random variable. outcomes ω, there corresponds a real
number X(ω). Since the points of the sample
In algebra, you learned about different
space ‘S’ corresponds to outcomes is defined for
variables like X or Y or any other letter in a
each ω ∈S.
particular problem. Thus in basic mathematics, a
variable is an alphabetical character that 6.1.1 Definition of a random variable
represents an unknown number. A random
Definition 6.1
variable is a variable that is subject to randomness,
A random variable (r.v.) is a real valued
which means it could take on different values. In
function defined on a sample space S and
statistics, it is quite general to use X to denote a
taking values in (– ∞, ∞) or whose possible
random variable and it takes on different values
values are numerical outcomes of a random
depending on the situation.
experiment.
Some of the examples of random variable:
(i) Number of heads, if a coin is tossed Note
8 times. (i) If x is a real number, the set of all ω in
(ii) The return on an investment in S such that X(ω)=x is, denoted by
one-year period. X = x . Thus P(X = x) = P{ω:X(ω) = x}.
(iii) Faces on rolling a die. (ii) P(X < a) = P{ω:X(ω) ∈(– ∞, a]} and
(iv) Number of customers who arrive P(a < X < b) = P{ω:X(ω) ∈(a, b]}.
at a bank in the regular interval
(iii) One-dimensional random variables
of one hour between 9.00 a.m and
will be denoted by capital letters,
4.30 p.m from Monday to Friday.
X , Y , Z ,..., etc. A typical outcome of
(v) The sale volume of a store on a
the experiment will be denoted by ω.
particular day.
Thus b ∈X(ω) represents the real
For instance, the random experiment ‘E’ number which the random variable
consists of three tosses of a coin X associates with the outcome w . The
and the outcomes of this values which X , Y , Z ,..., etc, can
experiment forms the sample assume are denoted by lower case
space is ‘S’. Let X denotes the letters, viz., x, y, z ,..., etc.
number of heads obtained. Tossing a Coin
Fig.6.1

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Table 6.1

Values of Random
variable
(i) If X1 and X2 are random variables Possibilities P1 P2 P3 (Number of Yes
and C is a constant, then those who are given)

CX1 , X1 + X2 , X1 X2 , X1 − X2 a r e 1. Y Y Y 3
also random variables. 2. Y Y N 2
1 3. Y N Y 2
(ii) If X is a random variable, then (i)
X 4. Y N N 1
and (ii) X are also random variables. 5. N Y Y 2
6. N Y N 1
Types of Random Variable:
7. N N Y 1
Random variables are classified into two 8. N N N 0
types namely discrete and continuous random
Form the above table, the discrete random
variables. These are important for practical
variable take values 0, 1, 2 and 3.
applications in the field of Mathematics and
Statistics. The above types of random variable Probability Mass function
are defined with examples as follows.
Definition 6.3
6.1.2 Discrete random variable If X is a discrete random variable with
distinct values x1 , x2 , ..., xn , ... , then the
Definition 6.2
function, denoted by PX ( x ) and defined by
A variable which can assume finite
P(X = x i ) = pi = p(xi ) if x = xi , i = 1, 2,..., n,...
number of possible values or an infinite PX (x ) = p(x)= 
0 if x ≠ xi
sequence of countable real numbers is called
a discrete random variable. This is defined to be the probability mass
function or discrete probability function of X.
Examples of discrete random variable:
The probability mass function p( x ) must
zz Marks obtained in a test.
satisfy the following conditions
zz Number of red marbles in a jar. ∞
zz Number of telephone calls at a particular (i) p( xi ) ≥ 0 ∀ i , (ii) ∑ p(xi ) = 1
time. i =1

zz Number of cars sold by a car dealer in

one month, etc., Example 6.1
The number of cars in a household is
For instance, three responsible persons
given below.
say, P1, P2 and P3 are asked about their opinion
No. of cars 0 1 2 3 4
in favour of building a model school in a certain
No. of Household 30 320 380 190 80
district. Each person’s response is recorded
Estimate the probability mass function.
as Yes (Y) or No (N). Determine the random
Verify p( xi ) is a probability mass function.
variable that could be of interest in this regard.
The possibilities of the response are as follows Solution:
Let X be the number of cars

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Example 6.4 Table 6.4

If you toss a fair coin three times, the

(1,6) (2,5) (3,4) (4,3) (5,2) (6,1)

outcome of an experiment consider as random

(2,6) (3,5) (4,4) (5,3) (6,2)

(1,5) (2,4) (3,3) (4,2) (5,1)
variable which counts the number of heads on

(1,4) (2,3) (3,2) (4,1)

(3,6) (4,5) (5,4) (6,3)

the upturned faces. Find out the probability

(4,6) (5,5) (6,4)

(1,3) (2,2) (3,1)
mass function and check the properties of the

Out comes

(1,2) (2,1)

(5,6) (6,5)
probability mass function.

(1,1)

(6,6)
Solution:
Let X is the random variable which
counts the number of heads on the upturned
faces. The outcomes are stated below
Values Values
Outcomes Outcomes
of X of X

Sum of the upturned

(HHH) 3 (HTT) 1
(HHT) 2 (THT) 1

faces (X)
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
(HTH) 2 (TTH) 1
(THH) 2 (TTT) 0
These values are summarized in the
following probability table. 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
PX (x ) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
Table 6.3
Value of X 0 1 2 3 Total Discrete distribution function
p(xi ) 1 3 3 1 3
Definition 6.4
8 8 8 8 ∑ p(xi )= 1 The discrete cumulative distribution
i =0
function or distribution function of a real
(i) p( xi ) ≥ 0 ∀ i and
valued discrete random variable X takes the
3
countable number of points x1 , x2 , ... with
(ii) ∑ p(xi )= 1 corresponding probabilities p( x1 ), p( x2 ), ...
i =0
Hence, p( xi ) is a probability mass function. and then the cumulative distribution function
is defined by
Example 6.5 FX (x ) = P ( X ≤ x ), for all x ∈R
Two unbiased dice are
thrown simultaneously and sum i.e., FX (x ) = ∑ p(xi )
xi ≤ x
of the upturned faces considered
as random variable. Construct a
probability mass function. Fig.6.2 For instance, suppose we have a family of
two children. The sample space
Solution:
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
S = {bb, bg, gb, gg}, where b =boy and g = girl
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5)) (2,6)
 
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) Let X be the random variable which counts
Sample space (S) =  
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (44,5) (4,6)
the number of boys. Then, the values (X)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

(6,1)

(6,2) (6,3) (6,44) (6,5) (6,6) corresponding to the sample space are 2, 1, 1,
Total outcomes : n(S) = 36 and 0.

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Hence, the probability mass function of X is X=x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

X=x 0 1 2

0.10

0.12

0.20

0.30

0.15

0.08

0.05
P(x)
p(x)
1 1 1
4 2 4 Solution
Then, we can form a cumulative distribution From the values of p( x ) given in the
function of X is probability distribution, we obtain

X=x 0 1 2
F (1) = P (x ≤ 1) = P (1) = 0.10
F (2) = P (x ≤ 2) = P (1) + P (2) = 0.10 + 0.12 = 0.22
1 1 1
p(x) F (2) = P (x ≤ 2) = P (1) + P (2) = 0.10 + 0.12 = 0.22
4 2 4
1 1 1 3 3 1 F (3) = P (x ≤ 3) = P (1) + P (2) + P (3)
FX (x ) = P ( X ≤ x ) + = + =1
4 4 2 4 4 4 = F (2) + P (3)

Example 6.6 = 0.22 + 0.20

A coin is tossed thrice. Let X be the = 0.42
number of observed heads. Find the cumulative F (4) = F (3) + P (4)
distribution function of X .
= 0.42 + 0.30
Solution:
= 0.72
The sample space (S) ={ (HHH), (HHT),
(HTH), (HTT),(THH),(THT),(TTH),(TTT)} F (5) = F (4) + P (5)

X takes the values: 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, and 0 = 0.72 + 0.15

= 0.87
Range of X(Rx) 0 1 2 3
F (6) = F (5) + P (6)
Px(x)
1 3 3 1
= 0.87 + 0.08
8 8 8 8
1 4 7 = 0.95
Fx(x) 1
8 8 8 F (7) = F (6) + P (7)
0, for x < 0 = 0.95 + 0.05
1
 , for 0 ≤ x < 1 = 1.00
8
4 Graph of p(x)
Thus, we have FX (x ) =  , for 1 ≤ x < 2 0.35
8 0.30
7 , for 2 ≤ x < 3 0.25
8
1, 0.20
p(x)

 for x ≤ 3
0.15
0.10
Example 6.7
0.05
Construct the distribution function for
the discrete random variable X whose 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
X=x
probability distribution is given below. Also
Fig.6.3
draw a graph of p(x) and F(x).

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Other names that are used instead of

1.2 probability density function include density
1.0 function, continuous probability function,
Graph of F(x)
0.8 integrating density function.
The probability density functions f X ( x )
F(x)

0.6

0.4
or simply by f ( x ) must satisfy the following
conditions.
0.2
∞

1 2 3 4
X=x
5 6 7 (i) f (x) ≥ 0 ∀ x and (ii) ∫ f (x )dx = 1 .
−∞
Fig.6.4
Example 6.8
0, if x < 1 A continuous random variable X has the
0.10, if x ≤ 1 following p.d.f f ( x ) = ax , 0 ≤ x ≤ 1

0.22, if x ≤ 2  1
Determine the constant a and also find P  X ≤ 
  2
0.42, if x ≤ 3 Solution:
F(x) is FX ( x ) = 
0.72, if x ≤ 4 We know that
0.87, if x ≤ 5 ∞

0.95, if x ≤ 6 ∫ f (x )dx = 1
−∞
1, if x ≤ 7
 1 1
6.1.3 Continuous random variable ∫ ax dx =1 ⇒ a∫ xdx = 1
Definition 6.5 0 0
1
A random variable X which can take on  x2 
⇒ a  =1
any value (integral as well as fraction) in the  2 0
interval is called continuous random variable. a
⇒
2
(1 − 0) = 1
Examples of continuous random variable
⇒a=2
zz The amount of water in a 10 ounce bottle. 1
zz The speed of a car. 2
 1
P  x ≤  = ∫ f (x )dx
zz Electricity consumption in kilowatt hours.  2  −∞
zz Height of people in a population. 1 1
2 2
zz Weight of students in a class. 1
= ∫ axdx = ∫ 2 xdx = \
zz The length of time taken by a truck driver 4
0 0
to go from Chennai to Madurai, etc.
Probability density function Example 6.9
A continuous random variable X has p.d.f
Definition 6.6
The probability that a random variable f (x ) = 5x 4 , 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 Find a1 and a2 such that
X takes a value in the interval [t1 , t 2 ] (open (i) P[ X ≤ a1 ] = P[ X > a1 ] (ii) P[ X > a2 ] = 0.05
or closed) is given by the integral of a function Solution
called the probability density function f X ( x ) : (i) Since P[ X ≤ a1 ] = P[ X > a1 ]
t2
1
( )
P t1 ≤ X ≤ t 2 = ∫ f X (x )dx . P[ X ≤ a1 ] =
2
t1

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a1
1 d
(v) F ′( x ) = F (x ) = f (x ) ≥ 0
i.e., ∫ f (x )dx =
2 dx
(vi)  F ′(x ) = d F (x ) = f (x ) ⇒ dF (x ) = f (x )dx , dF (x )
0
a1
1 dx
∫ 5x dx = 2
4
i.e., is known as probability differential of X .
0 b b a
a1 (vii) P (a ≤ x ≤ b) = ∫ f (x )dx = ∫ f (x )dx − ∫ f (x )dx
 x5  1
5  = a −∞ −∞

 5 0 2 = P ( X ≤ b) − P ( X ≤ a)
1
a1 = (0.5) 5 = F (b) − F (a)

(ii) P[ X > a2 ] = 0.05 Example 6.10

1 Suppose, the life in hours of a radio tube
∫ f (x )dx = 0.05 has the following p.d.f
a2
1 100
 , when x ≥ 100
∫ 5x dx = 0.05
4
f (x ) =  x 2
a2  0, when x < 100
1
 x5  Find the distribution function.
5   = 0. 05
 5  a2 Solution:
1 x
a2 = [0.95]
∫
5
F (x ) = f (t )dt
−∞
Continuous distribution function
x
100
Definition 6.7 = ∫ t 2
dt , x ≥ 100
If X is a continuous random variable 100

with the probability density function f X ( x ), x

then the function FX ( x ) is defined by  100 
=  , x ≥ 100
x  −t 100
FX (x ) = P[ X ≤ x] = ∫ f (t )dt , −∞ < x < ∞
 100 
−∞ F (x ) = 1 − , x ≥ 100
 x 
is called the distribution function (d.f) or
sometimes the cumulative distribution function
(c.d.f) of the continuous random variable X .
Example 6.11
The amount of bread (in hundreds of
Properties of cumulative distribution function pounds) x that a certain bakery is able to sell in
The function FX(x) or simply F(x) has the a day is found to be a numerical valued random
following properties phenomenon, with a probability function
specified by the probability density function
(i) 0 ≤ F (x ) ≤ 1, − ∞ < x < ∞
f (x ) is given by
(ii) F (−∞) = lim F (x ) = 0 and F (+∞) = lim F (x ) = 1.
x →−∞ x →∞
(iii) F(⋅) is a monotone, non-decreasing  Ax , for 0 ≤ x < 10

function; that is, F (a) ≤ F (b) for a < b . f (x ) =  A(20 − x ), for 10 ≤ x < 20
0, otherwise
(iv) F(⋅) is continuous from the right; that is, 
lim F (x + h) = F (x ). (a) Find the value of A.
h→0

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6.2. Mathematical Expectation

zz In (1), E(X) is an “average” of the
Introduction
values that the random variable takes
An extremely useful concept in problems on, where each value is weighted
involving random variables or distributions by the probability that the random
is that of expectation. Random variables can variable is equal to that value. Values
be characterized and dealt with effectively that are more probable receive more
for practical purposes by consideration of weight.
quantities called their expectation. The concept
zz In (2), E(X) is defined to be the
of mathematical expectation arose in connection
indicated integral if the integral
with games of chance. For example, a gambler
exists; otherwise, we say that the
might be interested in his average winnings at
mean does not exist.
a game, a businessman in his average profits
on a product, and so on. The average value of zz In (2), E(X) is an “average” of the
a random phenomenon is also termed as its values that the random variable
Mathematical expectation or expected value. In takes on, where each value x is
the following sections, we will define and study multiplied by the approximate
the concept of mathematical expectation for probability that X equals the value x,
both discrete and continuous random variables, namely f X ( x )dx and then
which will be used in the following subsection. integrated over all values.

6.2.1 Expected value and Variance

Expected value
The expected value is a weighted average
of the values of a random variable may assume.
zz E(X) is the center of gravity or
The weights are the probabilities.
centroid of the unit mass that is
Definition 6.8 determined by the density function
Let X be a discrete random variable with of X. So the mean of X is measure
probability mass function (p.m.f.) p( x ) . of where the values of the random
Then, its expected value is defined by variable X are “centered”.
E( X ) = x p(x ) ∑ ... (1)
zz The mean of X, denoted by mx or
x
If X is a continuous random variable E(X).
and f(x) is the value of its probability density
function at x, the expected value of X is Variance
∞
The variance is a weighted average of the
E( X ) = ∫ x f (x) dx ... (2)
squared deviations of a random variable from
−∞
its mean. The weights are the probabilities. The
Note mean of a random variable X, defined in (1)
and (2), was a measure of central location of the
zz In (1), E(X) is defined to be the
density of X. The variance of a random variable
indicated series provided that the
X will be a measure of the spread or dispersion
series is absolutely convergent;
of the density of X or simply the variability in
otherwise, we say that the mean
the values of a random variable.
does not exist.

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Definition 6.9 6.2.2 Properties of Mathematical

The variance of X is defined by expectation
2
Var ( X ) = ∑  x − E( X ) p(x ) ... (3) (i) E(a)= a , where ‘a’ is a constant
(ii) E(aX ) = aE( X )
if X is discrete random variable with
probability mass function p(x). (iii) E(aX+ b) = aE( X ) + b , where ‘a’
∞ and ‘b’ are constants.
2
Var ( X ) = ∫  x − E( X ) f X (x ) dx ... (4) (iv) If X ≥ 0, then E( X ) ≥ 0
−∞
if X is continuous random variable with (v) V (a)= 0
probability density function f X ( x ) . (vi) If X is random variable, then
V (aX+ b) = a2V ( X )
Definition 6.10 Concept of moments
Expected value of [X –E(X)]2 is called the The moments (or raw moments) of a
variance of the random variable. random variable or of a distribution are the
i.e., Var ( X ) = E [ X − E( X )]2 = E ( X 2 ) − [ E( X )]2 ... (5) expectations of the powers of the random
variable which has the given distribution.
where
∑ x 2 p(x ), if X is Discrete RandomVariable Definition 6.11
 x
( )
E X2 =  ∞ If X is a random variable, then the r th moment
 ∫ x 2 f (x ) dx , if X is Continuous RandomVariable
 −∞ of X , usually denoted by m¢r , is defined as m¢r =
∑ x r p(x ), for discreterandom variable
 x
Note ( )
E Xr =  ∞
 ∫ x r f (x )dx , for continu
uous random variable
 −∞
zz In the following examples, variance
will be found using definition 6.10. provided the expectation exists.
zz The variances are defined only if the
series in (3) is convergent or if the Definition 6.12
integrals in (4) exist. If X is a random variable, the r th central
zz If X is a random variable, the moment of X about a is defined as E ( X − a)r 
standard deviation of X (S.D(X)), . If a = mx , we have the r th central moment of X
denoted by s X , is defined as about mx , denoted by mr , which is
+ Var [ X ] . mr = E[(X–mX)r]
zz The variance of X , denoted by s X 2
or Var ( X ) or V ( X ) Note
zz m¢1 = E(X) = mX , the mean of X.
zz m1 = E[X–mX] = 0.
Mean is the center of gravity of a
zz m2 = E[(X–mX)2], the variance of X .
density; similarly, variance represents
the moment of inertia of the same zz All odd moments of X about mX
density with respect to a perpendicular are 0 if the density function of X is
axis through the center of gravity. symmetrical about mX , provided
such moments exist.
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7 Probability
Distributions

Introduction

T
he frequency distributions
are of two types namely Observed
frequency distribution and Theoretical frequency
distribution. The distributions which are based on actual data or
experimentation are called the Observed Frequency distribution. On
the other hand, the distributions based on expectations on the basis
Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss of past experience are known as Theoretical Frequency distribution
(April 30, 1777 – Feb. 23, 1855) or Probability distribution.
Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss (30 April 1777 – 23 February 1855)
was a German mathematician and physicist who made significant
contributions to many fields in mathematics and sciences. Gauss had an exceptional influence in many
fields of mathematics and science, and is ranked among history’s most influential mathematicians
In discrete probability distribution we will discuss Binomial and Poisson distribution and the
Normal Distribution is a continuous probability distribution

Learning Objectives

After studying this chapter students are able to understand

zz Concept of Bernoulli trial
zz Binomial , poisson and normal density function
zz Mean and variance of binomial and poisson distribution
zz Properties of normal probability curve

7.1 Distribution
The following are the two types of Discrete distribution
Theoretical distributions :
The binomial and Poisson distributions
1. Discrete distribution
are the most useful theoretical distributions for
2. Continous distribution discrete variables.

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7.1.1 Binomial distribution Definition 7.1

Binomial distribution was discovered by A random variable X is said to follow
James Bernoulli(1654-1705) in the year 1700 binomial distribution with parameter n and
and was first published posthumously in 1713 , p, if it assumes only non- negative value and
eight years after his death. its probability mass function in given by
 n C x p x qn− x , x = 0,1, 2,…..n; q = 1 − p
A random experiment whose outcomes 
P (X = x) = p(x) =  0 , otherwise
are of two types namely success S and failure F, 

occurring with probabilities p and q respectively,
is called a Bernoulli trial.
Note
Some examples of Bernoulli trials are :
Any random variable which
(i) Tossing of a coin (Head or tail) follows binomial distribution is known
(ii) Throwing of a die (getting even or as binomial variate i.e X ~ B(n,p) is a
odd number) binomial variate.

Consider a set of n independent The Binomial distribution can be used under

Bernoullian trails (n being finite) in which the the following conditions :
probability ‘p’ of success in any trial is constant 1. The number of trials ‘n’ finite
, then q = 1–p , is the probability of failure. The 2. The trials are independent of each other.
probability of x successes and consequently
3. The probability of success ‘p’ is constant for
(n–x) failures in n independent trials, in a
each trial.
specified order (say) SSFSFFFS….FSF is given
in the compound probability theorem by the 4. 
In every trial there are only two possible
expression outcomes – success or failure.

P(SSFSFFFS…..FSF) = P(S)P(S)P(F)P(S)… Derivation of the Mean and Variance of

P(F)P(S)P(F) Binomial distribution :
= p.p.q.p … q.p.q
The mean of the binomial distribution
= p.p.p.p … q.q.q.q.q.q ...
= {x factors} {(n–x) factors}
n
 n
E(X) = ∑x  x  px qn− x
= p x q (
n− x ) x =0

 n   n − 1
n
x successes in n trials can occur in nCx =p ∑x.  x   x − 1 p x −1qn− x
ways and the probability for each of these ways x =1
is same namely p x qn− x . = np (q+p)n–1 [since p+q = 1]
The probability distribution of the number
of successes, so obtained is called the binomial = np
probability distribution and the binomial
E(X) = np
expansion is (q + p)n

∴ The mean of the binomial distribution
is np

Var (X) = E(X2) – {E(X)}2

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 n n Example 7.1
Here E(X ) = ∑x   p x qn− x
2 2
A and B play a game in which their chance
 x
x =0
of winning are in the ratio 3:2 Find A’s chance
n
 n of winning atleast three games out of five games
∑ {x ( x − 1) + x}  x  p x qn− x played.
x =0

n
 n n
 n Soltion:
= ∑{ }
x ( x − 1)   p x qn− x + ∑x   p x qn− x
 x x=0  x 
x =0
Let ‘p’ be the probability that ‘A’ wins the
game. Then we are given n = 5, p = 3/5,
p 2 n (n − 1)
n    n − 2  x −2 n − x
{
= ∑ x ( x − 1) }
 x x −1 
 ( )  x − 2 p q q = 1–
3 2
= (since q = 1–p)
x=2
5 5
n  n Hence by binomial probability law, the
+ ∑x   p x qn− x
x=0  x  probability that out of the 5 games played, A
wins ‘x’ games is given by
n
 n − 2  x −2 n − x x 5− x
= n(n–1) p2 { ∑ + np  3  2 
 x − 2 p q } P(X=x) = p ( x ) = 5Cx    
x=2
 5  5
= n(n–1)p2(q+p)(n–2) + np The required probability that ‘A’ wins
atleast three games is given by
= n(n–1)p2+ np
P ( X ≥ 3) = P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) + P (X = 5)
∴ Variance = E(X2) – {E(X)}2
3 2 4 1 5 o
2 2 2 2 2 = 5C 3  3   2  + 5C 4  3   2  + 5C 5  3   2 
= n p – np + np – n p  5  5  5  5  5  5

= np(1–p) = npq = 0.6826

Hence, mean of the BD is np and the Example 7.2

Variance is npq. A fair coin is tossed 6 times. Find the
probability that exactly 2 heads occurs.
Note
Solution :
Mean and variance in terms of raw
Let X be a random variable follows
moments and central moments are
binomial distribution with probability value
denoted as μ′1 , and μ2 respectively.
p = 1/2 and q = 1/2

Properties of Binomial distribution Probability that exactly 2 heads occur are

as follows
1. Binomial distribution is symmetrical if p  6
= q = 0.5. It is skew symmetric if p ≠ q. P(X = 2) =   p x qn− x
It is positively skewed if p < 0.5 and it is  x
negatively skewed if p > 0.5
2
=  6  1   1 
6-2

 2  2   2 
2. For Binomial distribution, variance is less
than mean
15
= 64
Variance npq = (np)q < np

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13. Out of 750 families with 4 children each, 7.1.2 Poisson Distribution
how many families would be expected to
Poisson distribution was derived in 1837
have (i) atleast one boy (ii) atmost 2 girls
by a French Mathematician Simeon D. Poisson.
(iii) and children of both sexes? Assume
If n is large, the evaluation of the binomial
equal probabilities for boys and girls.
probabilities can involve complex computations,
14. Forty percent of business travellers carry in such a case, a simple approximation to
a laptop. In a sample of 15 business the binomial probabilities could be use. Such
travelers, approximation of binomial when n is large and p
(i) what is the probability that 3 will have is close to zero is called the Poisson distribution.
a laptop?
Poisson distribution occurs when there
(ii) what is the probability that 12 of the
are events which do not occur as a definite
travelers will not have a laptop?
number on trials but an events occurs rarely
(iii) what is the probability that atleast and the following examples may be analysed:
three of the travelers have a laptop?
(i) 
Number of bacteria in one cubic
15. A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting centimeter.
a doublet is considered a success, find the
probability of 2 successes. (ii) 
Number of printing mistakes per
page in a text book
16. The mean of a binomial distribution is 5
and standard deviation is 2. Determine (iii) 
the number of alpha particles
the distribution. emitted by a radioactive substance
in a fraction of a second.
17. Determine the binomial distribution for
which the mean is 4 and variance 3. Also (iv) Number of road accidents occurring
find P(X=15) at a particular interval of time per
18. Assume that a drug causes a serious side day.
effect at a rate of three patients per one
hundred. What is the probability that Number of lightnings per second.
atleast one person will have side effects Poisson distribution is a limiting case
in a random sample of ten patients taking of binomial distribution under the following
the drug? conditions :
19. Consider five mice from the same litter,
(i) n, the number of trials is indefinitely
all suffering from Vitamin A deficiency.
large i.e n → ∞ .
They are fed a certain dose of carrots. The
positive reaction means recovery from the (ii) p, the constant probability of success
disease. Assume that the probability of in each trial is very small, i.e. p → 0
recovery is 0.73. What is the probability
l
that atleast 3 of the 5 mice recover. (iii) np = l is finite. Thus p = and
 l n
20. An experiment succeeds twice as often as q = 1 −   where l is a positive
 n
it fails, what is the probability that in next
real number.
five trials there will be (i) three successes
and (ii) at least three successes

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Definition 7.2 = λ2 e–λ eλ + λ = λ2 + λ

A random variable X is said to follow
a Poission distribution with parameter λ if Variance (X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
it assumes only non–negative values and its
probability mass function is given by = λ2 + λ – (λ)2

P(x, l ) = P(X=x) = λ

 e − ll x Properties of Poisson distribution :

 , x = 0,1, 2…….; l > 0
=  x! 1. Poisson distribution is the only
 0 otherwise distribution in which the mean and

variance are equal .
Derivation of Mean and variance of
Poisson distribution Example 7.14
∞
Mean E(X) = ∑x p ( x,l ) In a Poisson distribution the first
probability term is 0.2725. Find the next
x =0
∞
e − ll x Probability term
=
x!
∑x
x =0
Solution :
  λ x −1
−λ 
∞  
= λ e ∑  
x=1  ( x − 1) !   Given that p(0) = 0.2725

= λe – λ(1 + λ + λ2/2! +……) e − ll 0

= 0.2725
0!
= λe – λ eλ
⇒ e −l = 0.2725
= λ
(by using exponent table)
Variance (X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
l = 1. 3
∞
Here E(X2) = ∑ x 2 p ( x,l ) ∴ p ( X = 1) = e −1.3 (1.3) / 1!
x =0
∞
= ∑ x 2 p ( x,l ) = e −1.3 (1.3)
x =0
∞ = 0.2725 x 1.3
= ∑ {x ( x − 1) + x} p ( x,l )
x =0
= 0.3543
∞ −l x
e l
= ∑ {x ( x − 1) + x} x! Example 7.15
x =0

lx In a book of 520 pages, 390 typo-graphical

= e–λ x(x–1) λx/x! + x e– λ
x! errors occur. Assuming Poisson law for the
∞
number of errors per page, find the probability
l x −2
=λ e ∑
2 –λ
+λ that a random sample of 5 pages will contain no
x =2 ( x − 2)! error.

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7. It is given that 5% of the electric bulbs heights of individual, a continuous distribution

manufactured by a company are defective. is needed. Normal distribution is one of the
Using poisson distribution find the most widely used continuous distribution.
probability that a sample of 120 bulbs will Normal distribution is the most important
contain no defective bulb. and powerful of all the distribution in statistics.
8. A car hiring firm has two cars. The demand It was first introduced by De Moivre in 1733
for cars on each day is distributed as a in the development of probability. Laplace
Poisson variate, with mean 1.5. Calculate (1749-1827) and Gauss (1827-1855) were also
the proportion of days on which associated with the development of Normal
(i) Neither car is used distribution.
(ii) Some demand is refused
7.1.3 Normal Ditribution
9. The average number of phone calls
per minute into the switch board of a Definition 7.3
company between 10.00 am and 2.30 pm A random variable X is said to follow a
is 2.5. Find the probability that during
normal distribution with parameters mean
one particular minute there will be (i) no
phone at all (ii) exactly 3 calls (iii) atleast and variance σ2 , if its probability density
5 calls function is given by
10. The distribution of the number of road
accidents per day in a city is poisson with 1  1  x − µ 2
f(x : m, σ) = exp  −   
mean 4. Find the number of days out of σ 2π  2 σ  
100 days when there will be (i) no accident
(ii) atleast 2 accidents and (iii) at most 3 −∞ < x < ∞,

accidents. −∞ < ∝< ∞, 
11. Assuming that a fatal accident in a factory σ>0 
during the year is 1/1200, calculate the
probability that in a factory employing Normal distribution is diagrammatically
300 workers there will be atleast two fatal represented as follows :
accidents in a year. (given e–0.25 = 0.7788) Highest point of curve
Downward cup
12. The average number of customers, who
appear in a counter of a certain bank per
minute is two. Find the probability that
during a given minute (i) No customer Inflection points
appears (ii) three or more customers Upward cup
Upward cup
appear .

μ – 3σ μ – 2σ μ–σ μ μ+σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ
Continuous distribtuion Normal curve
Fig 7.1
The binomial and Poisson distributions
discussed in the previous chapters are the most Normal distribution is a limiting case
useful theoretical distributions for discrete of binomial distribution under the following
variables. In order to have mathematical conditions:
distributions suitable for dealing with quantities
whose magnitudes vary continuously like weight,

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(i) n, the number of trials is infinitely probability occurring at the point x =

large, i.e. n → ∞ μ and is given by [p(x)]max =

(ii) neither p (nor q) is very small, 1 / σ √ 2π

The normal distribution of a variable (viii) The total area under the normal curve
when represented graphically, takes the shape is equal to unity and the percentage
of a symmetrical curve, known as the Normal distribution of area under the normal
Curve. The curve is asymptotic to x-axis on its curve is given below
either side. (a) About 68.27% of the area falls between
Chief Characterisitics or Properties of μ – σ and μ + σ
Normal Probabilty distribution and Normal
P(μ – σ < X < μ + σ) = 0.6826
probability Curve .
(b) 
About 95.5% of the area falls
The normal probability curve with mean
between μ – 2σ and μ + 2σ
m and standard deviation σ has the following
properties : P(μ – 2σ < X < μ + 2σ) = 0.9544
(i) the curve is bell- shaped and (c) 
About 99.7% of the area falls
symmetrical about the line x=μ between μ – 3σ and μ + 3σ
(ii) Mean, median and mode of the
P(μ – 3σ < X < μ + 3σ) = 0.9973
distribution coincide.
f(x)
(iii) x – axis is an asymptote to the curve.
( tails of the cuve never touches the
horizontal (x) axis)

(iv) No portion of the curve lies below the

x-axis as f (x) being the probability
function can never be negative. μ–3σ μ–2σ μ–σ μ μ+σ μ+2σ μ+3σ x
68.27%
95.45%
Inflection points 99.73%
–3 –2 –1 z=0 1 2 3
Fig 7.3

Standard Normal Distribution

A random variable Z = (X–μ)/σ follows
μ – 3σ μ – 2σ μ–σ μ μ+σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ x
the standard normal distribution. Z is called
Fig 7.2
the standard normal variate with mean 0
(v) The Points of inflexion of the curve and standard deviation 1 i.e Z ~ N(0,1). Its
are x = µ ± σ Probability density function is given by :
(vi) The curve of a normal distribution has 1 z2
f ( z ) =
−
e −2 –∞ < z < ∞
a single peak i.e it is a unimodal. 2π
(vii) As x increases numerically, f (x) 1. The area under the standard normal curve
decreases rapidly, the maximum is equal to 1.

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2. 68.26% of the area under the standard and 1.65 is 0.4505 (from the table).
normal curve lies between z = –1 and Z =1 Since the area to the left of zero is 0.5,
3. 95.44% of the area lies between Z = –2 P(Z< 1.65) = 0.5000 – 0.4505 = 0.0495.
and Z = 2
4. 99.74% of the area lies between Z = –3
and Z = 3

Example 7.21
What is the probability that a standard
normal variate Z will be z = –1.65 z = 0

(i) greater than 1.09 Fig 7.5

(ii) less than –1.65
(iii) lying between –1.00 and 1.96
(iii) lying between –1.00 and 1.96
(iv) lying between 1.25 and 2.75 The probability that the random
variable Z in between –1.00 and 1.96
Solution :
is found by adding the corresponding
(i) greater than 1.09 areas :

The total area under the curve is equal

to 1 , so that the total area to the right
Z = 0 is 0.5 (since the curve is
symmetrical). The area between Z = 0
and 1.09 (from tables) is 0.3621

Z=–1.00 Z=0 Z=1.96

Fig 7.6

Area between –1.00 and 1.96

= area between (–1.00 and 0) + area
z = 0 z = 1.09 betwn (0 and 1.96)
Fig 7.4
P(–1.00 < Z < 1.96) = P
 (–1.00 < Z < 0) +
P(0 < Z < 1.96)
P(Z > 1.09) = 0.5000 – 0.3621 = 0.1379
= 0.3413 + 0.4750 (by tables)
The shaded area to the right of
Z = 1.09 is the probability that Z will = 0.8163
be greater than 1.09
(iv) lying between 1.25 and 2.75
(ii) less than –1.65
Area between Z = 1.25 and 2.75
The area between –1.65 and 0 is = area between (z = 0 and z = 2.75)
the same as area between 0 and 1.65. – area between (z=0 and z = 1.25)
In the table the area between zero

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8 Sampling Techniques
and Statistical
Inference
Introduction

P
andurang
Vasudeo Sukhatme
(1911–1997) was an award-winning
Indian statistician. He is known for his pioneering
work of applying random sampling methods in agricultural
statistics and in biometry, in the 1940s. He was also influential in
the establishment of the Indian Agricultural Statistics Research
Pandurang Vasudeo Sukhatme Institute. As a part of his work at the Food and Agriculture
(July 27, 1911 - January 28, 1997) Organization in Rome, he developed statistical models for assessing
the dimensions of hunger and future food supplies for the world.
He also developed methods for measuring the size and nature of the protein gap.
In any statistical investigation, the interest lies in the assessment of one or more characteristics
relating to the individuals belonging to a group. When all the individuals present in the study are
investigated, it is called complete enumeration, but in practice, it is very difficult to investigate all
the individuals present in the study. So the technique of sampling is done which states that a part
of the individuals are selected for the study and the assessment is made from the selected group of
individuals. For example
(i) A housewife tastes a spoonful whatever she cooks to check whether it tastes good or not.
(ii) A few drops of our blood are tested to check about the presence or absence of a disease.
(iii) A grain merchant takes out a handful of grains to get an idea about the quality of the
whole consignment.
These are typical examples where decision making is done on the basis of sample information.
So sampling is the process of choosing a representative sample from a given population.

Learning Objectives zz sampling and non-sampling errors

After studying this chapter students are able zz sampling distribution
to understand zz statistical inference
zz sampling techniques zz estimation
zz random sampling zz test of statistical hypothesis
zz simple random
sampling 8.1 Sampling
zz stratified random Sampling is the procedure or process of
sampling selecting a sample from a population. Sampling is
zz systematic sampling quite often used in our day-to-day practical life.

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8.1.1 Basic concepts of sampling Types of sampling

Population The technique or method of selecting
The group of individuals considered a sample is of fundamental importance in the
under study is called as population. The word theory of sampling and usually depends upon
population here refers not only to people but the nature of the data and the type of enquiry.
to all items that have been chosen for the study. The procedures of selecting a sample may be
Thus in statistics, population can be number of broadly classified as
bikes manufactured in a day or week or month, 1. Non-Random sampling or Non-
number of cars manufactured in a day or week probability sampling.
or month, number of fans, TVs, chalk pieces, 2. Random Sampling or Probability
people, students, girls, boys, any manufacturing sampling.
products, etc…
Note
Finite and infinite population:
When the number of observations/ Here we confine ourselves to Random
individuals/products is countable in a group, sampling or Probability sampling.
then it is a finite population. Example: weights
of students of class XII in a school. Random sampling or Probability sampling
When the number of observations/ Random sampling refers to selection
individuals/products is uncountable in a group, of samples from the population in a random
then it is an infinite population. Example: manner. A random sample is one where each
number of grains in a sack, number of germs in and every item in the population has an equal
the body of a sick patient. chance of being selected.

Sample and sample size “ Every member of a parent population has

A selection of a group of individuals from had equal chances of being included”.- Dr.
a population in such a way that it represents the Yates
population is called as sample and the number “A random sample is a sample selected in such
of individuals included in a sample is called the a way that every item in the population has an
sample size. equal chance of being included”.-Harper
Parameter and statistic The following are different types of probability
Parameter: The statistical constants of the sampling:
population like mean (m), variance( s 2 ) are
(i) Simple random sampling
referred as population parameters.
(ii) Stratified random sampling
Statistic : Any statistical measure computed
from sample is known as statistic. (iii) Systematic sampling
(i) Simple random sampling
Note In this technique the samples are selected
in such a way that each and every unit in the
In practice, the parameter values population has an equal and independent
are not known and their estimates based chance of being selected as a sample. Simple
on the sample values are generally used. random sampling may be done, with or without
replacement of the samples selected. In a simple
random sampling with replacement there is

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a possibility of selecting the same sample any sample can be done through “Random Number
number of times. So, simple random sampling Table”. The random number table has been so
without replacement is followed. constructed that each of the digits 0,1,2,…,9 will
Thus in simple random sampling from a appear approximately with the same frequency
population of N units, the probability of drawing and independently of each other.
1
any unit at the first draw is , the probability The various random number tables available are
N
a. L.H.C. Tippett random number series
of drawing any unit in the second draw from
1 b. Fisher and Yates random number series
among the available ( N − 1) units is ,
(N − 1) c. Kendall and Smith random number series
and so on. . Several methods have been adopted d. 
Rand Corporation random number
for random selection of the samples from the series.
population. Of those, the following two methods
Tippett’s table of random numbers is most
are generally used and which are described
popularly used in practice. Given below the first
below.
forty sets from Tippett’s table as an illustration
(A) Lottery method of the general appearance of random numbers:
This is the most popular and simplest
method when the population is finite. In this 2952 6641 3992 9792 7969 5911 3170 5624
method, all the items of the population are
4167 9524 1545 1396 7203 5356 1300 2693
numbered on separate slips of paper of same
size, shape and colour. They are folded and 2670 7483 3408 2762 3563 1089 6913 7991
placed in a container and shuffled thoroughly.
0560 5246 1112 6107 6008 8125 4233 8776
Then the required numbers of slips are selected
for the desired sample size. The selection of 2754 9143 1405 9025 7002 6111 8816 6446
items thus depends on chance.
Suppose, if we want to select the required
For example, if we want to select 10 number of samples from a population of size
students, out of 100 students, then we must write
N(<99) then any two digit random number
the names/roll number of all the 100 students
can be selected from ( 00 to 99) from the above
on slips of the same size and mix them, then we
random number table. Similarly if N(< 999) or
make a blindfold selection of 10 students. This
(< 9999), then any three digit random number
method is called unrestricted random sampling,
because units are selected from the population or four digit random number can be selected
without any restriction. This method is mostly from (000 to 999) or (0000 to 9999).
used in lottery draws. If the population or The procedure of selecting the random samples
universe is infinite, this method is inapplicable. consists of following steps:
(B) Table of Random number 1. Identify the N units in the population
When the population size is large, it is with the numbers from 1 to N.
difficult to number all the items on separate
2. Select at random, any page from the
slips of paper of same size, shape and colour.
‘Random Number Table’.
The alternative method is that of using the table
of random numbers. The most practical, easy 3. Select the required number of samples
and inexpensive method of selecting a random from any row or column or diagonal.

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(iii) If the selected first random sample is 5, then (i) Sampling Errors
the rest of the samples are automatically selected (ii) Non-Sampling Errors
by incrementing the value of the sampling interval
(i) Sampling Errors
(k = 10) i.e., 5, 15 , 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85, 95.
Errors, which arise in the normal course
Example: of investigation or enumeration on account of
Suppose we have to select 20 items out of chance, are called sampling errors. Sampling
6,000. The procedure is to number all the 6,000 errors are inherent in the method of sampling.
items from 1 to 6,000. The sampling interval is They may arise accidentally without any bias or
N 6000 prejudice. Sampling Errors arise primarily due
calculated as k= = = 300 . Thus
n 20 to the following reasons:
sampling interval = 300 denotes that for every (a) Faulty selection of the sample instead
300 samples one sample has to be selected. of correct sample by defective sampling
The first sample is selected from the first 300 technique.
(sampling interval) samples through random (b) The investigator substitutes a convenient
selection procedures. If the selected first sample if the original sample is not available
random sample is 50, then the rest of the samples while investigation.
are automatically selected by incrementing the (c) In area surveys, while dealing with border
value of the sampling interval (k=300) ie,50, lines it depends upon the investigator
350, 650, 950, 1250, 1550, 1850, 2150, 2450, whether to include them in the sample or
2750, 3050, 3350, 3650, 3950, 4250, 4550, 4850, not. This is known as Faulty demarcation of
5150, 5450, 5750. Items bearing those numbers sampling units.
will be selected as samples from the population.
(ii)Non-Sampling Errors
Merits The errors that arise due to human
1. This is simple and convenient method. factors which always vary from one investigator
2. Th
 is method distributes the sample more to another in selecting, estimating or using
evenly over the entire listed population. measuring instruments( tape, scale)are called
Non-Sampling errors.It may arise in the
3. The time and work is reduced much.
following ways:
Demerits (a) Due to negligence and carelessness of the
1. Systematic samples are not random samples. part of either investigator or respondents.
2. If N is not a multiple of n, then the sampling (b) Due to lack of trained and qualified
interval (k) cannot be an integer, thus investigators.
sample selection becomes difficult. (c) Due to framing of a wrong questionnaire.
(d) Due to apply wrong statistical measure
8.1.2 Sampling and Non-Sampling Errors: (e) Due to incomplete investigation and sample
A sample is a part of the whole population. survey.
A sample drawn from the population depends
8.1.3 Sampling distribution
upon chance and as such all the characteristics
Definition 8.3
of the population may not be present in the
sample drawn from the same population. The Sampling distribution of a statistic is the
errors involved in the collection, processing frequency distribution which is formed with
various values of a statistic computed from
and analysis of the data may be broadly
different samples of the same size drawn from
classified into two categories namely,
the same population.

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For instance if we draw a sample of size n 8.1.4 C

 omputing standard error in simple
from a given finite population of size N, then cases
the total number of possible samples is Example 8.6
N N!
Cn = = k (say). For each of these A server channel monitored for an hour
n !(N − n)! was found to have an estimated mean of 20
k samples we can compute some statistic, transactions transmitted per minute. The
t = t (x1 , x2 , x3 ,...xn ), in particular the mean variance is known to be 4. Find the standard
x , the variance S2, etc., is given below: error.
Statistic
Sample Number Solution:
t x s2 Given s 2 = 4 which implies s = 2 ,
1 t1 x1 s12 n = 1 hour = 60 min, X = 20 /min
s 2
2 t2 Standard Error = = = 0.2582
x2 s2
2 n 60
3 t3 x3 s32 Example 8.7
Find the sample size for the given standard
. . . . deviation 10 and the standard error with respect
. . . . of sample mean is 3.
. . . .
Solution:
k tk xk sk2 Given s = 10 , S.E. X =3 We know that
The set of the values of the statistic so S.E = s
obtained, one for each sample, constitutes the n 10 10
sampling distribution of the statistic.
Therefore, 3= ⇒ n=
n 3
Taking Squaring on both sides we get
Standard Error
The standard deviation of the sampling
2
 10  100
distribution of a statistic is known as its Standard n=  = = 11.11 ≅ 11 ,
 3 9
Error abbreviated as S.E. The Standard Errors
(S.E.) of some of the well-known statistics, for The required sample size is 11.
large samples, are given below, where n is the Example 8.8
sample size, s 2 is the population variance. A die is thrown 9000 times and a throw of
Sl. 3 or 4 is observed 3240 times. Find the standard
Statistic Standard Error
No. error of the proportion for an unbiased die .
1. –)
Sample mean (x s n
Solution :
Observed sample
2. PQ n If the occurrence of 3 or 4 on the die is
proportion (p)
called a success, then
Sample standard
3. s 2 2n Sample size = 9000; Number of Success =
deviation (s)
3240
4. Sample variance (s2) s2 2 n 3240
Sample proportion = p = = 0.36
5. Sample quartiles 1.36263 s n 9000
Population proportion (P) = Prob (getting
6. Sample median
1.25331 s n 3 or 4 when a die is thrown)
7. Sample correlation 1 1 2 1
coefficient (r) (1 − r 2 ) n = + = = = 0.3333
6 6 6 3
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be 1350 hours with a standard deviation of 8.3.1 M

 eaning : Null Hypothesis and
100 hours. Establish 90% confidence limits Alternative Hypothesis - Level of
within which the mean life time of light bulbs is Significants and Type of Errors
expected to lie. Statistical Hypothesis
Solution: Statistical hypothesis is some assumption
Given: n = 169, x = 1350 hours, s = 100 or statement, which may or may not be true,
hours, since the level of significance is (100- about a population.
90)% =10% thus a is 0.1, hence the significant There are two types of statistical hypothesis
value at 10% is Za = 1.645 (i) Null hypothesis (ii) Alternative hypothesis
2
s 100 Null Hypothesis
S.E. = = = 7.69
n 169 Definition 8.7
Hence 90% confidence limits for the According to Prof. R.A.Fisher, “Null
population mean are hypothesis is the hypothesis which is tested
x − Zα SE < µ < x + Zα SE for possible rejection under the assumption
2 2 that it is true”, and it is denoted by H0 .
1350 − (1.645 × 7.69) ≤ m ≤ 1350 + (1.645 x 7.69)
For example: If we want to find the population
1337.35 ≤ m ≤ 1362.65 mean has a specified value m0 , then the null
Hence the mean life time of light bulbs is hypothesis H 0 is set as follows H 0 : m = m0
expected to lie between the interval (1337.35,
1362.65) Alternative Hypothesis
Any hypothesis which is complementary
8.3 Hypothesis Testing
to the null hypothesis is called as the alternative
One of the important areas of statistical
hypothesis and is usually denoted by H1 .
analysis is testing of hypothesis. Often, in
real life situations we require to take decisions For example: If we want to test the null
about the population on the basis of sample hypothesis that the population has specified
information. Hypothesis testing is also referred mean m i.e., H0 : m = m0 then the alternative
to as “Statistical Decision Making”. It employs hypothesis could be any one among the
statistical techniques to arrive at decisions in following:
certain situations where there is an element of
(i) H1 : m ≠ m0 (m > or m < m0)
uncertainty on the basis of sample, whose size is
fixed in advance. So statistics helps us in arriving (ii) H1 : m > m0
at the criterion for such decision is known as
Testing of hypothesis which was initiated by J. (iii) H1 : m < m0
Neyman and E.S. Pearson. The alternative hypothesis in H1 : m ≠ m0
For Example: We may like to decide on the is known as two tailed alternative test. Two
basis of sample data whether a new vaccine is tailed test is one where the hypothesis about the
effective in curing cold, whether a new training population parameter is rejected for the value of
methodology is better than the existing one, sample statistic falling into either tails of the
whether the new fertilizer is more productive sampling distribution. When the hypothesis
than the earlier one and so on. about the population parameter is rejected only
for the value of sample statistic falling into one

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of the tails of the sampling distribution, then it Critical region or Rejection region
is known as one-tailed test. Here H1 : m > m0 and A region corresponding to a test statistic
H1 : m < m0 are known as one tailed alternative. in the sample space which tends to rejection of
H0 is called critical region or region of rejection.

Note
The region complementary to the critical
region is called the region of acceptance.
Two tailed diagram
Fig.8.1 Level of significance
The probability of type I error is known
as level of significance and it is denoted by α.
Right tailed test: H1 : m > m0 is said to
The level of significance is usually employed in
be right tailed test where the rejection region or
testing of hypothesis are 5% and 1%. The level
critical region lies entirely on the right tail of the
of significance is always fixed in advance before
normal curve.
collecting the sample information.

Critical values or significant values

The value of test statistic which separates
the critical (or rejection) region and the
acceptance region is called the critical value or
significant value. It depend upon
Right tailed diagram
Fig.8.2
(i) The level of significance
(ii) Th
 e alternative hypothesis whether it is
Left tailed test: H1 : m < m0 is said to be left
two-tailed or single tailed.
tailed test where the critical region lies entirely
on the left tail of the normal curve. (diagram) For large samples, the standardized
variable corresponding to the statistic viz.,

t − E(t) t − E(t )
Z= =  N (0,1) as n → ∞
Var (t ) S.E.(t )
… (1)
Left tailed test The value of Z given by (1) under the
Fig.8.3 null hypothesis is known as test statistic. The
Types of Errors in Hypothesis testing critical values of Z , commonly used at the level
There is every chance that a decision of significance for both two tailed and single
regarding a null hypothesis may be correct tailed tests are given in the normal probability
or may not be correct. There are two types of table (Refer the normal probably Table).
errors. They are Since for large n, almost all the
Type I error: The error of rejecting H 0 distributions namely, Binomial, Poisson, etc.,
when it is true. can be approximated very closely by a normal
Type II error: The error of accepting when probability curve, we use the normal test of
H 0 it is false. significance for large samples.

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Test of significance for single mean

Note Let xi , (i = 1, 2, 3,..., n) is a random
For practical purposes, the sample may sample of size from a normal population with
be regarded as large if n > 30. mean m and variance s 2 then the sample mean
is distributed normally with mean µ and
s2  σ2 
8.3.2 T
 esting Procedure : Large sample theory variance , i.e., x  N  µ,  . Thus for
n  n
and test of significants for single mean large samples, the standard normal variate
The following are the steps involved in corresponding to x is :
hypothesis testing problems. x −µ
Z = σ
 N (0, 1)
1. Null hypothesis: Set up the null hypothesis n
H0 Under the null hypothesis that the sample
2. Alternative hypothesis: Set up the alternative has been drawn from a population with mean
hypothesis . This will enable us to decide and variance s 2 , i.e., there is no significant
whether we have to use two tailed test or difference between the sample mean ( x ) and
single tailed test (right or left tailed) the population mean (µ), the test statistic (for
3. Level of significance: Choose the appropriate large samples) is:
x −µ
level of significant (a) depending on the Z=
σ
reliability of the estimates and permissible n
Remark:
risk. This is to be fixed before sample is
If the population standard deviation s is
drawn. i.e., a is fixed in advance.
unknown then we use its estimate provided by
4. Test statistic : Compute the test statistic the sample variance given by ŝ 2 = s2 Þ ŝ = s.
using
t − E(t) t − E(t ) Example 8.14
Z= =  N (0,1) as n → ∞ An auto company decided to introduce
Var (t ) S.E.(t )
a new six cylinder car whose mean petrol
5. Conclusion: We compare the computed consumption is claimed to be lower than that of
value of Z in step 4 with the significant the existing auto engine. It was found that the
value or critical value or table value Za at mean petrol consumption for the 50 cars was 10
the given level of significance . km per litre with a standard deviation of 3.5 km
per litre. Test at 5% level of significance, whether
(i) If | Z |< Z a i.e., if the calculated value of
the claim of the new car petrol consumption is
is less than critical value we say it is not
9.5 km per litre on the average is acceptable.
significant. This may due to fluctuations
of sampling and sample data do not Solution:
provide us sufficient evidence against Sample size n =50 Sample mean x = 10
the null hypothesis which may therefore km Sample standard deviation s = 3.5 km
be accepted.
Population mean m =9.5 km
(ii) If | Z |> Z a i.e., if the calculated value of
Since population SD is unknown we
is greater than critical value Za then
consider s = s
we say it is significant and the null
hypothesis is rejected at level of The sample is a large sample and so we
significance a . apply Z-test.

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