CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION
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1.1 Artificial Intelligence (AI)

As the global demand for renewable energy continues to rise, solar power has emerged
as one of the most promising and sustainable energy sources. However, efficient solar energy
generation is highly dependent on various environmental factors such as solar radiation, weather
conditions, and geographical location. Accurately predicting solar power generation and radiation
levels is essential for optimizing energy production, improving grid stability, and enhancing the
economic viability of solar power systems.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized the field of solar energy forecasting by
enabling data driven predictive models that can analyze vast amounts of meteorological and
historical solar data. AI-based predictive models utilize machine learning (ML) and to forecast
solar power generation and radiation with high accuracy. These models integrate multiple data
sources, including satellite imagery, weather forecasts, and real-time sensor data, to make reliable
predictions. The application of AI in solar intelligence enhances decision-making for energy
producers, grid operators, and policymakers. By leveraging predictive analytics, solar power
plants can optimize energy storage, reduce operational costs, and efficiently manage electricity
distribution. Additionally, AI-powered models contribute to the integration of solar energy into
smart grids, ensuring a stable and reliable energy supply. This study explores the development and
implementation of AI-driven predictive models for solar power generation and radiation
forecasting. It highlights various machine learning techniques, data processing methodologies, and
real-world applications of solar intelligence to improve the efficiency and sustainability of
renewable energy systems.

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 Fig 1.1 Components of AI

AI Techniques for Solar Prediction

AI-based predictive models for solar power generation primarily rely on machine learning and
deep learning algorithms, including:
 ARD Regression (Automatic Relevance Determination) – A Bayesian approach to linear
regression that determines the relevance of each feature automatically.
 Decision Tree Regression – Capable of learning complex patterns in large datasets to predict
solar radiation with high accuracy. A tree-based model that splits data into branches to predict
values.
 Ridge Regression – A linear regression model that reduces overfitting by adding a penalty
term.
 Regress Random Forest – An ensemble of decision trees that combine the results of multiple
trees to improve accuracy and prevent overfitting
1.1.1 Components of AI
1. Data Collection &

Preprocessing Data Sources:

 Meteorological data (solar radiation, temperature, humidity, wind speed)

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  Satellite imagery for cloud cover analysis.
 Historical solar energy production data from power plants.
Data Preprocessing:
 Handling missing values, data normalization, and feature selection.
 Time-series data transformation for accurate forecasting.
 Noise reduction using statistical techniques
2. Machine Learning (ML)

Traditional ML Models:
 ARD Regression (Automatic Relevance Determination) – A Bayesian approach to
linear regression that determines the relevance of each feature automatically.
 Decision Tree Regression – Capable of learning complex patterns in large datasets
to predict solar radiation with high accuracy. A tree-based model that splits data into
branches to predict values.
 Ridge Regression – A linear regression model that reduces overfitting by adding a
penalty term.
 Regress Random Forest – An ensemble of decision trees that combine the results of
multiple trees to improve accuracy and prevent overfitting
3. Natural Language Processing (NLP) for Weather Reports & Forecasts
 AI can extract insights from unstructured weather reports, news, and research articles.
 NLP models help in understanding climate trends affecting solar energy.
4. Computer Vision for Solar Panel & Cloud Cover Analysis
 Satellite & Drone Imagery Processing: AI models analyze cloud movement,
shading effects, and terrain conditions.
 Defect Detection in Solar Panels: AI-powered image processing detects cracks,
dust accumulation, and degradation in solar panels for maintenance.
5. Reinforcement Learning for Energy Optimization
 Adaptive Energy Storage Management: AI-based reinforcement learning
dynamically manages battery storage for solar energy.
 Grid Stability & Demand Forecasting: Predicts electricity demand-supply balance
to optimize power distribution.

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6. AI-Driven Smart Grid Integration
 Predictive Load Balancing: AI ensures stable electricity supply by forecasting
solar power generation trends.
 Energy Trading Systems: AI-driven platforms manage surplus solar energy
distribution in microgrids.
7. Real-World Applications
 Google DeepMind: Uses AI to forecast solar energy production, improving
efficiency.
 IBM Watson Solar Forecasting: Integrates AI with satellite data for solar
radiation prediction.
 Smart Grid Systems in Germany & India: AI ensures reliable solar power
integration into national grids.

Fig 1.2 Application of AI

1.2 Machine Learning (ML)

Machine Learning (ML) plays a crucial role in the development of solar
intelligence predictive models by enabling accurate forecasting of solar power

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 generation and radiation levels. ML algorithms analyze vast amounts of historical and
real-time meteorological data, identifying complex patterns and relationships that
traditional statistical models might overlook. These models leverage supervised learning
techniques such as linear regression, support vector machines (SVM), and decision trees
to predict solar radiation based on temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and other
environmental factors. Additionally, deep learning architectures like Artificial Neural
Networks (ANNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are employed for
time-series forecasting, providing highly accurate predictions of solar energy output.
Machine learning also facilitates adaptive optimization by continuously learning from
new data, improving energy management strategies, and enhancing the efficiency of
solar power generation systems. By integrating ML with IoT-enabled sensors and
satellite imagery, AI-powered predictive models can make real-time adjustments,
ensuring optimal energy utilization and grid stability.
1.2.1 Types of Machine Learning
 Supervised Learning

In supervised learning, the algorithm learns from labeled data, where each
example consists of input features and corresponding labels.

 Unsupervised Learning

Unsupervised learning involves learning patterns and structures from unlabeled

data. Clustering and dimensionality reduction are common tasks in unsupervised
learning, where the goal is to discover hidden patterns or group similar data points.

 Semi-Supervised Learning

Semi-supervised learning combines elements of supervised and unsupervised

learning, where the algorithm learns from a small amount of labeled data and a large
amount of unlabeled data.

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 Fig 1.2.1 Types of ML

Fig 1.2.2 Benefits of Machine Learning

1.3 Generative AI

Generative AI is an advanced subset of Artificial Intelligence that creates new

data, predictions, or simulations based on existing datasets. In the context of solar
intelligence predictive models, Generative AI can be used to enhance forecasting
accuracy, simulate solar energy production under different environmental conditions, and
generate synthetic weather data to improve model robustness. One of the key applications
of Generative AI in solar forecasting is using Generative Adversarial Networks

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 (GANs) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to generate synthetic solar radiation and
weather datasets. These models can simulate rare climate conditions, such as prolonged
cloud cover or extreme temperature variations, allowing AI models to learn from
scenarios that may not frequently occur in historical data. This helps in improving the
generalization of AI-based solar energy predictions, making them more reliable in real-
world applications

1.3.1 Applications of Generative AI

Fig 1.4 Application of Generative AI

The image below illustrates the diverse and rapidly growing applications of Generative
Artificial Intelligence (AI) across multiple domains. It categorizes use cases into four main areas:
Visual Content, Audio Generation, Text Generation, and Code Generation. Within each
category, specific applications are highlighted ranging from image enhancement, video
prediction, and 3D shape generation in visual content; to music composing, text-to-speech
(TTS), and speech-to-speech (STS) conversion in audio generation. Text generation
encompasses capabilities such as creative writing, chatbot interactions, and language
translation.

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 CHAPTER II
FEASIBILITY STUDY

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FEASIBILITY STUDY

2.1 Existing System

The current solar power generation and radiation prediction systems rely on
traditional statistical methods, numerical weather models, and satellite-based
observations. These systems use meteorological data, such as temperature, humidity,
cloud cover, and solar irradiance, to estimate power generation. Many existing
solutions rely on physical models like the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
system and empirical equations such as the Angström-Prescott model. While these
methods provide reasonable accuracy, they often struggle with short-term forecasting
due to the dynamic nature of weather conditions. Additionally, these models may not
effectively adapt to regional variations and require significant computational resources.
The increasing demand for more accurate and real-time solar predictions has led to the
integration of AI and machine learning approaches to improve forecasting efficiency
and reliability.

Limitation

• Data Inconsistency & Availability: Many existing models rely on historical weather
and solar radiation data, which may be incomplete, inconsistent, or unavailable for
certain regions.
• Accuracy Limitations: Traditional models, such as regression-based or simple time-
series forecasting, struggle with non-linear relationships in solar power generation due
to environmental factors like cloud cover, pollution, and seasonal variations.
• High Dependency on Weather Forecasts: Many models rely on meteorological
predictions, which themselves are subject to inaccuracies, affecting the reliability of
solar power generation forecasting.
• Limited Real-Time Adaptation: Conventional models do not adapt well to sudden
weather changes, leading to inaccurate short-term forecasts.

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 • Computational Complexity: Advanced AI-based models (e.g., deep learning,
LSTMs) require high computational resources, making them expensive to deploy and
maintain.
• Lack of Generalization: Models trained on data from one region may not
perform well in another due to differences in geographic and climatic conditions.
• Integration Challenges: Predictive models must integrate with power grids and
IoT systems, but compatibility issues often arise due in protocols and data formats.
2.2 Proposed system
The proposed system aims to enhance solar power and radiation forecasting using
advanced machine learning models such as Random Forest, ARD Regression, Ridge
Regression, and Decision Tree Regression. Unlike traditional statistical models, which
struggle with real-time adaptability and weather variability, the proposed system leverages
historical and real-time data to improve accuracy and reliability. This system collects solar
irradiance, temperature, humidity, and power generation data from various sources. The data
is preprocessed using NumPy and Pandas, ensuring it is clean and normalized for efficient
model training. The machine learning models are then trained and evaluated based on key
performance metrics like Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
to determine the most effective approach. Once the best model is selected, it is deployed into
a web-based application using Django for real-time predictions. Users can input weather
parameters and receive accurate solar power forecasts. Additionally, the system is integrated
with cloud platforms like AWS or Google Cloud, making it scalable and accessible for real-
world applications. By automating the forecasting process, the proposed system reduces
manual intervention, improves energy grid stability, and optimizes solar panel performance,
leading to more efficient renewable energy utilization.

Limitation

• Data Availability & Quality: Inaccurate, incomplete, or missing historical weather

and solar radiation data can affect model performance.
• Weather Dependency: Sudden atmospheric changes like cloud cover, storms, or
pollution can cause significant prediction errors.
• Model Generalization Issues: A model trained on one geographical region may not
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work well in another due to different climatic conditions.

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 • Computational Complexity: Deep learning models, such as LSTMs and CNNs,
require high computational power and long training times.
• Real-time Prediction Challenges: Processing large datasets and making accurate
predictions in real time can be difficult, especially with edge computing constraints.
• Feature Selection Complexity: Identifying the most relevant features (temperature,
humidity, wind speed, etc.) for accurate predictions can be challenging.
• Solar Panel Efficiency Variability: Predictions might not account for degradation,
dirt accumulation, or technical issues affecting panel efficiency.
• Regulatory and Policy Factors: Changes in government policies or incentives for
solar power may impact predictions for financial and energy planning.
Conclusion

The development of solar intelligence predictive models for power generation and
radiation plays a crucial role in optimizing renewable energy utilization. By leveraging AI
and machine learning techniques, these models enhance forecasting accuracy, enabling better
energy planning and grid stability. However, challenges such as data availability, weather
unpredictability, computational complexity, and model generalization must be addressed to
improve system reliability. Future advancements in deep learning, real-time data integration,
and IoT-based smart monitoring can further enhance prediction accuracy. Overcoming these
limitations will pave the way for more efficient and sustainable solar energy solutions,
contributing to global renewable energy goals.

HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

1. Hardware Requirements

• Processor: Intel Core i7/i9, AMD Ryzen 7/9, or higher (for training ML models)
• GPU (Optional but Recommended): NVIDIA RTX 3060/RTX 4090 or
equivalent for deep learning acceleration

• RAM: Minimum 16GB (32GB+ recommended for large datasets)

• Storage: SSD (512GB or higher for faster data access)
• Internet Connection: Required for cloud-based model training and data retrieval

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2. Software Requirements
• Operating System: Windows 10/11, Linux (Ubuntu), or macOS

• Programming Languages: Python (preferred), R, MATLAB

• Libraries & Frameworks:

o TensorFlow / PyTorch (for deep learning)

o Scikit-learn (for ML models)

o Pandas & NumPy (for data processing)

o Matplotlib & Seaborn (for data visualization)

• Database (if needed): MySQL, PostgreSQL, MongoDB

• Cloud Platforms (Optional): Google Colab, AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud for
model training and deployment

• IDE: Jupyter Notebook, PyCharm, VS Code

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 CHAPTER III
LITERATURE SURVEY

LITERATURE SURVEY
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 3.1 K.C.Jayasankar, G.Anandhakumar and A.Kalaimurugan “Prediction of Solar Radiation
using Deep LSTM-based Machine Learning Algorithm” Journal of environmental
nanotechnology 2024, Volume 13, Issue 3, Pages 01-08,ISSN: 2279-0748

Abstract

The study focuses on predicting solar radiation using a Deep Long Short-Term Memory
(Deep LSTM) machine learning algorithm. Solar radiation is crucial for applications like solar
energy systems and weather forecasting, but traditional methods struggle to capture its complex
temporal patterns. The Deep LSTM model is trained on historical meteorological data,
including temperature, humidity, wind velocity, and past solar radiation metrics. Data
preprocessing, feature selection, and hyperparameter optimization are applied to enhance
accuracy. The model outperforms traditional approaches, demonstrating superior accuracy and
resilience in different meteorological conditions. The study contributes to more efficient solar
energy management and planning.

Description

The research proposes an advanced solar radiation prediction framework using Deep
LSTM, a variant of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). The study integrates historical
meteorological data with machine learning techniques to enhance prediction accuracy. The
methodology involves:
• Data Collection: Historical meteorological records, including temperature, humidity, and
cloud cover.
• Feature Selection & Preprocessing: Selecting key parameters that influence solar
radiation.
• Model Training & Optimization: Training the Deep LSTM model using a
regression-based dataset with polynomial extrapolation.

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 • Performance Evaluation: Comparing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of different
models, including LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and Deep LSTM. Results indicate that Deep LSTM
achieves better accuracy compared to traditional methods. The study suggests that
incorporating hybrid approaches like CNN-LSTM could further improve performance.
Limitation
• Dependence on Large Datasets: The Deep LSTM model requires extensive
historical data for effective training, which may not be available in all locations.
• Computational Complexity: The model’s deep architecture increases training time
and computational costs.
• Overfitting Risks: The use of a large number of hidden layers (200) may lead to
overfitting, especially if the dataset is not sufficiently diverse.
• Limited Generalization: While the model performs well on the given dataset, its
accuracy may decrease when applied to regions with different climatic conditions.
• Not Incorporating Real-Time Updates: The study primarily relies on historical data,
and realtime adaptability remains a challenge.

3.2 Anas Al-lahham , Obaidah Theeb , Khaled Elalem , Tariq A. Alshawi and Saleh A. Alshebeili 1,

"Sky Imager-Based Forecast of Solar Irradiance Using Machine Learning" 2020, Volume 9,
Issue 10, Article number 1700. The ISSN for Electronics is 2079-9292.

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is essential for maintaining the stability of electricity
grids, particularly as the use of renewable energy sources increases. This study presents a
machine learning (ML)-based approach for short-term solar irradiance prediction using sky
images. The proposed model extracts features from sky images and applies regression techniques
to estimate global horizontal irradiance (GHI). Two publicly available datasets with over
350,000 images spanning 16 years (2004–2020) are used for model evaluation. The study
employs K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms for nowcasting and
forecasting up to 4 hours ahead. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves
competitive accuracy while maintaining low computational complexity compared to deep
learning-based methods.
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Description
The study explores the application of deep learning techniques, specifically Long Short-
Term Memory (LSTM) networks, for the prediction of solar radiation. Accurate solar
radiation forecasting is essential for optimizing solar energy utilization, improving grid
stability, and enhancing the efficiency of photovoltaic systems. The proposed approach
leverages Deep LSTM networks trained on historical meteorological datasets, incorporating
parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and past solar radiation values. The
methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and hyperparameter optimization
to refine the model’s predictive performance. Comparative analysis with conventional
methods demonstrates that the Deep LSTM model achieves superior accuracy and robustness
in forecasting solar radiation. The results highlight the potential of deep learning in renewable
energy forecasting and suggest future improvements through hybrid models integrating
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Explainable AI techniques for better
interpretability and efficiency.

Limitation

• Dependence on Clear Sky Conditions:

o The model performs well under clear and partly cloudy conditions but struggles
with sudden weather changes (e.g., rain and storms).

• Limited Generalization to Different Locations:

o The datasets used are from specific geographical locations (Colorado, USA).
Performance in other climates remains uncertain.

• Accuracy Declines with Forecast Horizon:

o Prediction error increases as the forecast period extends beyond 2–3 hours.

• No Consideration of Meteorological Parameters:

o Unlike hybrid approaches that integrate weather data (e.g., wind speed,
humidity), this model relies solely on sky images, which may limit accuracy.

• Potential Overfitting with Small Training Data:

o While the study uses a large dataset, performance may degrade fewer training.
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 3.3 Salwan Tajjour1 · Shyam Singh Chandel1 Hasmat Malik2,5 Fausto Pedro García
Márquez3· Majed A. Alotaibi4 “Daily power generation forecasting for a grid-connected
solar power plant using transfer learning technique”, 0924-669X (Print), 1573-7497
(Online), Volume55, Issue 6, in January 2025.

Abstract

Deep learning has been widely applied in photovoltaic (PV) power generation
forecasting to address the intermittent nature of solar energy. However, newly installed solar
plants often lack the extensive historical data required to train deep learning models effectively.
To overcome this limitation, this study proposes a novel strategy utilizing transfer learning. A
deep neural network is pre-trained using solar radiation data and subsequently fine-tuned using
actual power generation data from a 400 kWp solar power plant in the Himalayan region. The
network architecture is optimized using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) to ensure high
accuracy while maintaining low model complexity. The proposed approach improves
forecasting accuracy, with a 2% reduction in percentage error and a 7.7% increase in the
correlation coefficient after applying transfer learning. Explainable AI techniques such as
SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) reveal that the
model primarily relies on past generation values (up to four days), followed by temperature and
solar radiation.

Description

This study presents a deep learning-based approach for forecasting daily power generation in a grid-
connected solar power plant. Due to the scarcity of sufficient training data in newly installed
plants, transfer learning is utilized to enhance model performance.The proposed methodology
involves pre-training a deep neural network on extensive solar radiation data and subsequently
finetuning it with actual power generation data. The model is optimized using the Grey Wolf
Optimizer (GWO) to determine the best network configuration, balancing accuracy and
computational efficiency. The evaluation is conducted on a 400 kWp solar power plant in the
Himalayan region, incorporating 10 meteorological input features such as temperature, humidity,
wind speed, and past generation values. Performance analysis demonstrates a significant
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 improvement in forecasting accuracy, with lower mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean
square error (RMSE) after applying transfer learning. The study also integrates explainability
techniques, including SHAP and PDP, to interpret model predictions, highlighting the dominant
influence of past generation values and environmental factors on power output. The findings
confirm that transfer learning is a viable solution for power forecasting in data-scarce scenarios,
enabling improved decision-making for solar energy management and grid stability.

Limitation

• Limited Availability of High-Resolution Data: The model relies on publicly

available solar radiation datasets, which may lack real-time granularity.

• Dependency on Meteorological Conditions: Forecast accuracy depends on weather

data, which can be unpredictable and variable across different regions.

• Computational Complexity: Despite optimization, the deep neural network requires

significant computational resources, making it less feasible for real-time applications
on low power devices.

• Transfer Learning Challenges: The effectiveness of transfer learning depends on the

similarity between the pre-training and fine-tuning datasets, which may not always
align perfectly.

• Model Generalization Issues: The model’s performance may decline when applied to
solar plants in different geographic locations with unique climatic conditions.

3.4 Md. Nayem Sharker1 , Md. Ahsanul Alam1, Md. Badrul Ahsan Tamal , Mohibul Islam
Sazib1 “Short-Term Solar Power Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms A
High Performing approach” 2022, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 82–95, ISSN: 2409-0476

Abstract

The use of solar energy is growing in popularity across the globe as a clean and
sustainable energy source. Nevertheless, integrating solar power into the grid and guaranteeing a

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 steady supply of electricity is made more difficult by the weather patterns’ tendency to cause
unpredictability in solar power generation. One potential solution to these issues is the use of
machine learning (ML) techniques for short term solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting.
This research looks into how well various machine learning algorithms work for short-term
PV power forecasting. It also offers a summary of the variables that affect time-series data
performance and suggests high-performance methods. Long Short- term Memory (LSTM),
Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were tested on an
88,494-item dataset with 20 features at a 15-minute resolution. As accuracy metrics, root
mean square error (RMSE) and mean square error (MSE) show that ANNs and LSTM
perform better than SVM. The superiority of the suggested methods is demonstrated by a
careful comparison with recently published results. The reason for the effectiveness of
ANNs and LSTMs is their capacity to represent the complex and non-linear relationships
found in the data. Shortterm solar power forecasting is complex, and SVMs are better
equipped to handle linear relationships. These findings will be a useful guidance for those
who intend to work in the field of PV power forecasting, even though further research is
required to generalize this observation.

Description

This study explores short-term solar power prediction using machine learning algorithms,
emphasizing their ability to handle the unpredictable nature of photovoltaic (PV) power
generation. The research compares the performance of three machine learning models:
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Support Vector
Machines (SVM). The dataset, consisting of 88,494 records with 20 meteorological features
at a 15-minute resolution, was used to evaluate the models' accuracy in forecasting solar
power output. The study highlights the importance of feature selection and data preprocessing
in improving model efficiency. The results show that ANN and LSTM outperform SVM in
capturing complex, non-linear relationships in the data. A comprehensive performance
evaluation using Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) confirms
the superiority of deep learning-based methods. The research provides valuable insights into
selecting appropriate machine learning models for solar power prediction, enabling more
efficient energy management and integration of renewable sources into the power grid.
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Limitation

• Data Dependency: The accuracy of the models depends on the quality and quantity of
historical meteorological data, which may not be available for all locations.

• Computational Complexity: Deep learning models like LSTM require significant

computational power, making real-time predictions challenging for low-resource
environments.

• Overfitting Risk: ANN and LSTM models may overfit when trained on limited or
noisy datasets, reducing their generalization ability.

• Limited Model Generalization: The models may perform well on specific datasets
but may require retraining or fine-tuning for different climatic conditions or
geographical locations.

• Feature Selection Sensitivity: The performance of the models is influenced by the

choice of input features, and improper selection may lead to suboptimal results.
• SVM Performance Limitation: The SVM model struggles with capturing complex,
time dependent patterns in solar power data, making it less suitable for short-term
forecasting.

3.5 HUGO RIGGS1 , SHAHID TUFAIL1 ,MOHD TARIQ1 (Senior Member, IEEE), and
ARIF SARWAT “Combined Machine Learning and Physics-Based Forecaster for Intra-
day and 1Week Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting Under Variable Weather
Conditions” ISSN: 2331-8422,Open access journal, March 16, 2023
Abstract
Power systems engineers are actively developing larger power plants out of photovoltaics
imposing some major challenges which include its intermittent power generation and its poor
dispatchability. The issue is that PV is a variable generation source unless additional planning
and system additions for mitigation of generation intermittencies. One underlying factor that
can enhance the applications around mitigating distributed energy resource intermittency
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 challenges is forecasting the generation output. This is challenging especially with renewable
energy sources which are weather dependent as due to the random nature of weather variance.
This work puts forth a forecasting model which uses the solar variables to produce a PV
generation forecast and evaluates a set of machine learning models for this task. In this paper,
a forecaster for irradiance prediction for intra-day is proposed. This forecaster is capable of
forecasting 15 minutes and hourly irradiance up to one week ahead. The paper performed a
correlation and sensitivity analysis of the strength of the relationship between local weather
parameters and system generation. In this study performance of SVM, CART, ANN, and
Ensemble learning were analyzed for the prediction of 15- minute intraday and day-ahead
irradiance. The results show that SVM and Ensemble learning yielded the lowest MAE for
15-minute intraday and day-ahead irradiance, respectively

Description

This study presents a hybrid forecasting approach for intra-day and one-week-ahead
solar irradiance prediction under variable weather conditions. It integrates physics-based
modeling with machine learning techniques, including Artificial Neural Networks (ANN),
Support Vector Machines (SVM), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), and an
ensemble forecasting model. The research aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy
forecasts, addressing challenges posed by the intermittent nature of photovoltaic (PV) power
generation. The model utilizes historical weather data, numerical weather predictions (NWP),
and solar position calculations to estimate irradiance and PV power output. The results
indicate that SVM performs best for 15-minute intra-day forecasting, while ensemble learning
provides the most accurate day-ahead irradiance predictions. The study also explores the
impact of cloud coverage on forecasting errors and highlights the importance of feature selection
and sensitivity analysis in optimizing model performance.

Limitation
• Weather Dependency: The accuracy of the forecasting model is highly influenced by
cloud coverage and other atmospheric conditions, making predictions less reliable
under rapidly changing weather.

• Computational Complexity: The ensemble model and machine learning algorithms

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 require significant computational resources, limiting their real-time applicability in
low-power devices.

• Data Availability: The model relies on historical meteorological data, which may not
always be available or consistent across different locations.

• Generalization Challenges: The forecasting approach is optimized for a specific PV

plant in Florida, and its performance may degrade when applied to different
geographic locations with distinct weather patterns.

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 CHAPTER IV
SYSTEM DESIGN

25
 SYSTEM DESIGN
4.1 System Architecture

Fig4.1 System Architecture

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Description
The Solar Intelligence Predictive Model using machine learning and deploying it through
a Django-based web application. The process begins with sourcing a solar radiation and
generation dataset from Kaggle. The collected dataset is then preprocessed using NumPy and
Pandas to clean, transform, and prepare the data for modeling. After preprocessing The core of
the project involves building predictive models using various regression algorithms, including
ARD Regression, Decision Tree Regression, Ridge Regression, and Random Forest
Regression. The models are compared to select the one with the highest accuracy, and the
best- performing model is saved in a .pkl format for future use. The backend is built using
Python and the Django framework. The trained model is integrated into the backend to enable
real- time predictions. The frontend is designed using HTML for structure, CSS for styling,
and JavaScript for interactivity. The application includes multiple user interface pages, such as
the Landing Page for welcoming users, Register Page for user registration, Login Page for
authentication, Home Page for dashboard access, Input Page for feeding new data, and the
Prediction Page for displaying solar radiation and generation predictions.
4.2 Use Case Diagram

Fig 4.2 Use Case Diagram

The use case diagram illustrates the development process of a Solar Generation and
Radiation Prediction System using machine learning and a web-based interface. The process
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 begins with collecting a suitable dataset from the Kaggle website, which contains relevant
features required for predicting solar power generation and radiation levels. Once the data is
acquired, a machine learning algorithm is selected and applied to the dataset. The data is then
divided into two parts: 80% is used for training the model, and the remaining 20% is reserved
for testing and validating its accuracy. After successful training and evaluation, a machine
learning model is built. This model is then integrated into a web application using the Django
framework, allowing seamless interaction between the backend model and the frontend user
interface. Finally, the system enables end users to input data and receive predictions regarding
solar energy generation and radiation levels, providing a valuable tool for energy planning and
environmental monitoring.
4.3 Modules
1. Data Pre-processing
2. Exploration Data Analysis Of visualization
3. Data Validation/cleaning/Preparing Process
4. Web application & deployment module

4.3.1 Data Pre-processing

Validation techniques in machine learning are used to get the error rate of the
Machine Learning (ML) model, which can be considered as close to the true error rate of the
dataset. If the data volume is large enough to be representative of the population, you may
not need the validation techniques. However, in real-world scenarios, to work with samples
of data that may not be a true representative of the population of given dataset. To finding
the missing value, duplicate value and description of data type whether it is float variable or
integer. The sample of data used to provide an unbiased evaluation of a model fit on the
training dataset while tuning model hyper parameters. The evaluation becomes more biased
as skill on the validation dataset is incorporated into the model configuration. The validation
set is used to evaluate a given model, but this is for frequent evaluation. It as machine
learning engineers use this data to fine-tune the model hyper parameters. Data collection,

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 data analysis, and the process of addressing data content, quality, and structure can add up to
a time-consuming to-do list. During the process of data identification, it helps to understand
your data and its properties; this knowledge will help you choose which algorithm to use to
build your model. A number of different data cleaning tasks using Python’s Pandas library
and specifically, it focus on probably the biggest data cleaning task, missing values and it
able to more quickly clean data. It wants to spend less time cleaning data, and more time
exploring and modeling. Importing the library packages with loading given dataset. To
analyzing the variable identification by data shape, data type and evaluating the missing
values, duplicate values. A validation dataset is a sample of data held back from training
your model that is used to give an estimate of model skill while tuning models and
procedures that you can use to make the best use of validation and test datasets when
evaluating your models. Data cleaning / preparing by rename the given dataset and drop the
column etc. to analyze the uni-variate, bi-variate and multi-variate process. The steps and
techniques for data cleaning will vary from dataset to dataset. The primary goal of data
cleaning is to detect and remove errors and anomalies to increase the value of data in
analytics and decision making.
Class Diagram

Fig 4.3 Class Diagram for Data Pre-processing

29
 The class diagram represents a predictive model system designed for solar intelligence,
focusing on power generation and radiation analysis using machine learning. The system
begins with Data Preprocessing, which handles the input data source and preprocessing steps
through the Run Preprocessing() method. The processed data is fed into the Predictive
Model. The predictive model interacts with both Power Generation and Radiation classes.
The Power Generation class generates power through the Generate Power() method, while
the Radiation class measures radiation using the Measure Radiation() method. The predictive
model also relies on the Machine Learning class, which defines the type of algorithm
(Algorithm Type) and executes it through the Execute Algorithm() method. The system
status is tracked using the Status enumeration, which includes possible states like Initialized,
In Progress, Completed, and Error. This structured design highlights the workflow from data
preprocessing, model training, and prediction to power generation and radiation analysis,
incorporating machine learning to enhance predictive accuracy.
Sequence Diagram

Fig 4.4 Sequence diagram for Data Pre-Prossing

30
The sequence diagram outlines the process of building a Solar Intelligence Predictive Model,
starting with the User providing raw solar data to the Raw Data Source. This data includes
variables such as irradiance, temperature, and power output. The Raw Data Source sends the
raw data to the Data Preprocessing Module for cleaning and transformation. The
preprocessing stage involves handling missing values using statistical methods (mean,
median, or mode), normalizing data through Min-Max scaling, and removing outliers using
methods like the Interquartile Range (IQR) or Z-score. After cleaning, the data is encoded
for compatibility using one-hot or label encoding techniques. The processed data is then sent
to the Model Training module, where the predictive model is trained using machine learning
algorithms. After training, the model is sent to the Evaluation module to assess performance.
The model's performance metrics, such as accuracy, RMSE, and R², are output to the user to
provide insight into the model's predictive power and effectiveness. The sequence diagram
illustrates the detailed process involved in developing a Solar Intelligence Predictive Model
for power generation and radiation, highlighting the data preprocessing, model training, and
evaluation stages. The process begins when the User supplies raw solar data to the Raw Data
Source. This raw data typically includes key solar and environmental parameters such as
irradiance (W/m²), temperature (°C), humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), and power output (kW)
collected from weather stations, solar panels, or IoT-based sensors. Once the data is received,
it is passed to the Data Preprocessing Module, where it undergoes multiple cleaning and
transformation steps to prepare it for machine learning model training.

31
Collaboration Diagram

Fig 4. 5 Collabration Diagram for Data Pre-processing

The collaboration diagram illustrates the process of solar power prediction by

showing the interaction between different components. The User initiates the process by
providing raw solar data to the Raw Data Source, which stores and manages the input. The
Raw Data Source then sends this data to the Data Preprocessing Module, where it undergoes
cleaning, normalization, and feature extraction to improve data quality. Once preprocessed,
the data is forwarded to the Module Training component, where machine learning algorithms
are applied to build predictive models. After training, the model is sent to the Evaluation
Module, where its performance is assessed using metrics like RMSE, MAE, and accuracy
scores. Finally, the Evaluation Module sends the results back to the User, providing insights
into the model’s performance. This structured flow ensures accurate solar energy
forecasting, allowing better decision-making in power generation and grid management.

32
4.3.2 Exploration Data Analysis Of Visualization
Data visualization is an important skill in applied statistics and machine learning.
Statistics does indeed focus on quantitative descriptions and estimations of data. Data
visualization provides an important suite of tools for gaining a qualitative understanding.
This can be helpful when exploring and getting to know a dataset and can help with
identifying patterns, corrupt data, outliers, and much more. With a little domain knowledge,
data visualizations can be used to express and demonstrate key relationships in plots and
charts that are more visceral and stakeholders than measures of association or significance.
Data visualization and exploratory data analysis are whole fields themselves and it will
recommend a deeper dive into some the books mentioned at the end. Sometimes data does
not make sense until it can look at in a visual form, such as with charts and plots. Being able
to quickly visualize of data samples and others is an important skill both in applied statistics
and in applied machine learning. It will discover the many types of plots that you will need
to know when visualizing data in Python and how to use them to better understand your own
data. Pre-processing refers to the transformations applied to our data before feeding it to the
algorithm. Data Pre-processing is a technique that is used to convert the raw data into a
clean data set. In other words, whenever the data is gathered from different sources it is
collected in raw format which is not feasible for the analysis. To analyzing the variable
identification by data shape, data type and evaluating the missing values, duplicate values. A
validation dataset is a sample of data held back from training your model that is used to give
an estimate of model skill while tuning models and procedures that you can use to make the
best use of validation and test datasets when evaluating your models.

33
Class Diagram

Fig 4.6 Class Diagram for Exploration Data Analysis of Visualization

The diagram is a class diagram representing a comprehensive data exploration and

predictive modeling system. At the core of the system is the Explore Data class, which has
attributes like Title, Description, and Created By, and methods for Start() and Analyze Data().
The Explore Data class is linked to various components. It uses the Predictive Model class,
which defines the type of model (Model Type) and includes methods for training (Train
Model()) and making predictions (Predict()). The system generates outputs through the
Visualization class, which specifies the graph type and display format. The model’s
predictions are related to the Power Generation class, which calculates generation capacity
and efficiency through Calculate Efficiency(). Similarly, the model measures radiation levels
via the Radiation class using the Measure Radiation() method. User interaction is handled
through an Abstract User class, which stores the UserID, Username, and Email, and provides
Login() and Logout() methods. There are two user types: Admin, who can manage models
and view analysis reports, and Regular User, who can view reports and update model
34
 parameters. The system also includes an Interface-Analys is Manager that manages data
analysis through the Data Analysis App class, which supports report creation, removal, and
detailed viewing. The structured design shows how data is explored, modeled, and analyzed
while incorporating user roles and interactions.

Sequence Diagram

Fig 4.7 Sequence Diagram for Exploration Data Analysis of Visualization

The process begins with the Researcher initiating the system by gathering solar data
from sensors, weather stations, or other external sources. This data is fed into the Data
Collection System, which collects and stores both real-time and historical solar data, such as

35
 irradiance, temperature, wind speed, and power generation values. Once the data is collected,
it is sent to the Machine Learning Model for processing. The machine learning model is then
trained on this historical data to identify patterns and correlations between input parameters
(e.g., irradiance, temperature) and the output (e.g., power generation). After training, the
model generates predictive results, which are passed to the Data Analysis Tool. The data
analysis tool evaluates the model's performance and analyzes data trends to assess the
accuracy and reliability of the predictions. The analyzed data and insights are then forwarded
to the Visualization Dashboard, where visual reports such as graphs, charts, and heatmaps are
generated to present the data in a user-friendly format. The Researcher can then review these
results and, if necessary, request model updates based on new data inputs or changing
environmental conditions. The data collection system receives the updated data, which is
then processed and sent back to the machine learning model for re-training. This feedback
loop ensures that the model remains accurate and adaptive to changing solar and
environmental conditions.
Collaboration Diagram

Fig 4.8 Collabration Diagram for Exploration Data Analysis of Visualization

36
 A collaborative diagram (also called a communication diagram) in UML shows how
different objects in a system interact with each other to complete a process. It focuses on the
relationships and message exchanges between objects rather than the sequence of events. In
the given diagram, the Researcher gathers solar data using the Data Collection System,
which then sends the collected data to the Machine Learning Model for training and
prediction. The Data Analysis Tool processes these predictions and generates reports, which
are then visualized in the Visualization Dashboard. Finally, the Researcher receives the
updated results. This diagram provides a clear visual representation of object collaboration,
making it useful for understanding system behavior. It helps in identifying dependencies
between components and ensures smooth data flow. By using collaboration diagrams,
developers and researchers can optimize interactions and improve system efficiency.
4.3.3 Data Validation/cleaning/Preparing Process
The Data Validation, Cleaning, and Preparation process is a crucial foundational
step in the development of Solar Intelligence Predictive Models, ensuring that the data used
for training and prediction is accurate, consistent, and of high quality. This process begins
with data validation, where raw datasets—typically collected from solar sensors, weather
stations, and satellite feeds—are examined for completeness, correct formatting, and logical
consistency. Common issues such as missing entries, data type mismatches, or invalid
values (e.g., negative solar irradiance or out-of-range temperature readings) are flagged
during this stage. Time-series data is checked for uniform intervals and chronological
integrity to maintain temporal consistency. Following validation, the data cleaning phase
addresses these issues by applying appropriate techniques. Missing values may be handled
using interpolation methods (linear, spline, or polynomial), or through statistical imputation
techniques such as mean, median, or mode substitution, depending on the nature of the
feature. Outliers are identified using methods like Z-score analysis or the Interquartile
Range (IQR) approach and are either corrected or removed to prevent skewed model
learning. Duplicate and redundant records are also eliminated to preserve data integrity.
Once the data is clean, the preparation stage involves feature engineering to derive
meaningful variables such as solar irradiance, ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed,
and temporal indicators like hour-of-day or day-of-year. These features are then normalized
or standardized to ensure consistency across the dataset and compatibility with different
37
 machine learning models. Finally, the dataset is split into training, validation, and testing
subsets to facilitate effective model training and evaluation. This end-to-end process ensures
that the input data is robust, reliable, and optimally structured for accurate solar radiation
and energy generation predictions using advanced AI techniques.

Class Diagram

Fig 4.9 Class Diagram for Data Validation/cleaning/Preparing Process

The process of developing a solar power and radiation prediction model begins with Data
Collection, where raw data is gathered from various solar sources, including solar
irradiance, temperature, and power output readings. This data is categorized under Solar
Data, focusing specifically on variables related to solar power generation and radiation.
Once collected, the data undergoes Data Validation to ensure its accuracy, completeness,

38
 and consistency. After validation, the Data Cleaning phase involves identifying and
rectifying errors, handling missing values, and eliminating any inconsistencies in the dataset.
The cleaned data is then passed through Data Preparation, where it is transformed into a
suitable format for machine learning models—this may include normalization, encoding
categorical variables, and splitting into training and testing sets. In the Feature Engineering
stage, new relevant features are created to enhance model performance, such as time-based
patterns, weather conditions, or derived statistical indicators.
Sequence Diagram

Fig 4.10 Sequence Diagram for Data Validation/cleaning/Preparing Process

The sequence diagram illustrates the interaction between the user, data engineer,
machine learning model, and data storage system during the solar power prediction process.
Initially, the user sends a request to the data engineer for data validation and preparation.
The data engineer then retrieves raw solar data from the storage system. Upon receiving the
data, the data engineer performs data cleaning and validation, which includes removing
outliers and filling in any missing values to ensure accuracy and consistency. Following this,
the engineer proceeds to transform and prepare the features by normalizing, encoding, and
aggregating the data to make it suitable for machine learning processing. Once the data is
ready, it is sent to the ML model, which acknowledges the receipt of the prepared dataset.
39
 The ML model then proceeds to train a predictive model designed specifically for
forecasting solar power generation and radiation. After training is complete, the results and
the trained model are returned to the data engineer, who subsequently provides the final
output back to the user. Throughout the process, the storage system plays a key role in data
delivery and retrieval, ensuring a seamless flow of information across all entities involved.
Collaboration diagram

Fig 4.11 Collaboration Diagram for Data Validation/cleaning/Preparing Process

The collaboration diagram for the Data Validation, Cleaning, and Preparation
Process illustrates the sequence of interactions between various components involved in
preparing solar data for machine learning modeling. The process initiates when the User
sends a request to the Data Engineer to validate and prepare the data (Step 111). In response
to this request, the ML Model component initiates the data retrieval process by accessing the
raw solar data from the Storage unit (Step 222). Upon successful retrieval, the Storage
returns the raw dataset to the ML Model (Step 333), which then forwards the unprocessed
40
 data to the Data Engineer for further handling (Step 444). At this stage, the Data Engineer
takes responsibility for the data cleaning and validation phase (Step 555), which involves
identifying and removing outliers, handling missing values through imputation or
interpolation, and ensuring data completeness and format consistency. Once the data is
cleaned, the feature preparation stage begins (Step 666), where the Data Engineer
performs tasks such as normalization, categorical encoding, temporal feature extraction, and
aggregation to enhance the dataset’s usability for modeling. Finally, the prepared and
structured data is returned to the ML Model for training and evaluation (Step 777). This
collaborative workflow ensures that the input data is thoroughly validated, cleaned, and
optimized before it is used to train AI-based models for accurate solar radiation and energy
generation predictions.
4.3.4 Web application & deployment module
The Web Application & Deployment Module is a crucial component of the Solar
Intelligence Predictive System, providing an interactive and accessible platform for users to
utilize AI-powered models for predicting solar power generation and radiation levels. This
module seamlessly integrates advanced machine learning algorithms, including Random
Forest, ARD Regression, Ridge Regression, and Decision Tree Regression, to ensure high
accuracy and robustness in solar data forecasting. Through a user-friendly web interface,
users can input relevant meteorological and environmental parameters, view real-time and
historical prediction outputs, and compare model performances through dynamic
visualizations and charts. The backend is built to support the deployment of trained AI
models, enabling smooth data processing and prediction generation.

41
Class Diagram

Fig 4.12 Class Diagram for Web application & deployment module
The Web Application & Deployment Module serves as the central hub for delivering AI-
powered solar energy predictions through an interactive and scalable platform. At its core, the
Web Application handles user interactions, graphical visualizations, and access to prediction
results via the User Interface, which provides controls and displays outcomes. This interface
communicates with the backend through the API, which bridges the frontend services with the
underlying logic and data processing components.. It ensures smooth interaction with the Solar
Model, which focuses on forecasting solar power generation and radiation levels. This model
operates in conjunction with the Machine Learning module, which incorporates algorithms such
as Random Forest, ARD Regression, Ridge Regression, and Decision Tree Regression to
provide accurate and reliable predictions. The predictions are driven by data
collected through the Data Collector, which gathers both real-time and historical solar and
environmental parameters.

42
Sequence diagram

Fig 4.13 Sequence Diagram for Web application & deployment module

43
 The system begins when a web user initiates a request for solar power generation
and radiation prediction via the Web Application interface. This triggers a sequence where
the ML Prediction Module fetches historical solar and radiation data from the Data
Service, which in turn queries the Database and returns the relevant data. Once the
historical data is received, it is sent to the ML module where predictive models—such as
Random Forest, ARD Regression, Ridge Regression, and Decision Tree Regression—are
executed to generate accurate solar power and radiation forecasts. The prediction results are
then returned and deployed to the user dashboard through the Deployment Module, which
confirms successful deployment and ensures the user sees the results in a timely manner.
Simultaneously, the Logging Service records the user request and prediction outcome to
maintain system transparency and traceability.

Collaboration diagram

Fig 4.14 Collaboration Diagram for Web application & deployment module

The collaboration diagram represents the workflow for handling a power generation
prediction request within a web-based system. The process begins when the Web User sends
a prediction request to the Web Application. In response, the Web Application contacts the
Data Service to fetch historical power and radiation data. The Data Service then queries the
Database and retrieves the required information, which it sends back to the Web Application.
44
 CHAPTER V
SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION

45
 SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION
5.1 Sample Code View.py
from django.shortcuts import render, redirect
from django.urls import reverse_lazy
from django.contrib.auth.views import LoginView, PasswordResetView,
PasswordChangeView
from django.contrib import messages
from django.contrib.messages.views import SuccessMessageMixin
from django.views import View
from django.contrib.auth.decorators import login_required
from django.contrib.auth import logout as auth_logout
import numpy as np
import joblib
from .forms import RegisterForm, LoginForm, UpdateUserForm, UpdateProfileForm
def home(request):
return render(request, 'users/home.html')
@login_required(login_url='users-register')
def index(request):
return render(request, 'app/index.html')
class RegisterView(View):

form_class = RegisterForm
initial = {'key': 'value'}
template_name = 'users/register.html'
def dispatch(self, request, *args, **kwargs):
# will redirect to the home page if a user tries to access the register page while logged in
if request.user.is_authenticated:
return redirect(to='/')
# else process dispatch as it otherwise normally would

46
 return super(RegisterView, self).dispatch(request, *args, **kwargs)
def get(self, request, *args, **kwargs):
form = self.form_class(initial=self.initial)
return render(request, self.template_name, {'form': form})
def post(self, request, *args, **kwargs):
form = self.form_class(request.POST)
if form.is_valid():
form.save()
username = form.cleaned_data.get('username')
messages.success(request, f'Account created for {username}')
return redirect(to='login')
return render(request, self.template_name, {'form': form})
class CustomLoginView(LoginView):
form_class = LoginForm
def form_valid(self, form):
remember_me = form.cleaned_data.get('remember_me')
if not remember_me:
self.request.session.set_expiry(0)
self.request.session.modified = True
return super(CustomLoginView, self).form_valid(form)
class ResetPasswordView(SuccessMessageMixin, PasswordResetView):
template_name = 'users/password_reset.html'

email_template_name = 'users/password_reset_email.html'
subject_template_name = 'users/password_reset_subject'
success_message = "We've emailed you instructions for setting your password, " \
"if an account exists with the email you entered. You should receive
them
shortly." \
" If you don't receive an email, " \

47
 "please make sure you've entered the address you registered with, and check
your spam folder."
success_url = reverse_lazy('users-home')
class ChangePasswordView(SuccessMessageMixin, PasswordChangeView):
template_name = 'users/change_password.html'
success_message = "Successfully Changed Your Password"
success_url = reverse_lazy('users-home')
from .models import Profile
def profile(request):
user = request.user
if not hasattr(user, 'profile'):
Profile.objects.create(user=user)
if request.method == 'POST':
user_form = UpdateUserForm(request.POST, instance=request.user)
profile_form = UpdateProfileForm(request.POST, request.FILES,
instance=request.user.profile)
if user_form.is_valid() and profile_form.is_valid():
user_form.save()
profile_form.save()
messages.success(request, 'Your profile is updated successfully')
return redirect(to='users-profile')
else:
user_form = UpdateUserForm(instance=request.user)
profile_form = UpdateProfileForm(instance=request.user.profile)

return render(request, 'users/profile.html', {'user_form': user_form, 'profile_form':

return render(request, 'App/Deploy_8.html', {'form': form})
models.py
from django.db import models

48
 from django.contrib.auth.models import User
from PIL import Image
# Extending User Model Using a One-To-One Link
class Profile(models.Model):
user = models.OneToOneField(User, on_delete=models.CASCADE)
avatar = models.ImageField(default='default.jpg', upload_to='profile_images')
bio = models.TextField()
def str (self):
return self.user.username
class Solar_Prediction(models.Model):
distance_to_solar_noon=models.FloatField()
temperature= models.FloatField()
wind_direction= models.FloatField()
wind_speed=models.FloatField()
sky_cover= models.FloatField()
visibility=models.FloatField()
humidity=models.FloatField()
average_wind_speed_period=models.FloatField()
average_pressure_period= models.FloatField()
power_generated=models.FloatField()
def str (self):
return f'Prediction on {self.power_generated}'
def str (self):
return f"Transformer {self.Radiation}"
Home.html
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge">
49
 <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<meta name="viewport" content="initial-scale=1, maximum-scale=1">
<title>Power</title>
<meta name="keywords" content="">
<meta name="description" content="">
<meta name="author" content="">
{% load static %}
<link rel="stylesheet" href="{% static 'css/bootstrap.min.css' %}">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="{% static 'css/style.css' %}">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="{% static 'css/responsive.css' %}">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-
awesome/4.7.0/css/font-awesome.min.css">
<script src="https://oss.maxcdn.com/html5shiv/3.7.3/html5shiv.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://oss.maxcdn.com/respond/1.4.2/respond.min.js"></script><![endif]-->
</head>
<body class="main-layout">
<header>
<div class="header">
<div class="container-fluid">
<div class="row d_flex">
<div class=" col-md-2 col-sm-3 col logo_section">
<div class="full">
<div class="center-desk">
<div class="logo">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="col-md-8 col-sm-9">

50
 <nav class="navigation navbar navbar-expand-md navbar-dark ">
<button class="navbar-toggler" type="button" data-toggle="collapse" data-
target="#navbarsExample04" aria-controls="navbarsExample04" aria-expanded="false" aria-
label="Toggle navigation">
<span class="navbar-toggler-icon"></span>
</button>
<div class="collapse navbar-collapse" id="navbarsExample04">
<ul class="navbar-nav mr-auto">
<li class="nav-item active">
<a class="nav-link" href="/">Home</a>
</li>
<li class="nav-item">
<a class="nav-link" href="{% url 'solar_report' %}">solar_DS</a>
</li>
<li class="nav-item">
<a class="nav-link" href="{% url 'Radiation_report' %}">Radiation_DS</a>
</li>
<li class="nav-item">
<a class="nav-link" href="{% url 'Db_solar' %}">DBSolar</a>
</li>
<li class="nav-item">
<a class="nav-link" href="{% url 'Db_Radiation' %}">DBRadiation</a>
</li>
<li class="nav-item">
<a class="nav-link" href="{% url 'users-profile' %}">Profile</a>
</li>
<li class="nav-item"><a href="{% url 'login' %}" class="nav-link">Sign in</a></li>
</ul>
</div>

51
 <div class="col-md-2 d_none">
<ul class="email text_align_right">
<li> <a href="{% url 'logout_view' %}">Logout </a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</nav>
</div>
</div>
</header>
<div id="top_section" class=" banner_main">
<div class="container">
<div class="row">
<div class="col-md-12">
<div id="myCarousel" class="carousel slide" data-ride="carousel">
<ol class="carousel-indicators">
<li data-target="#myCarousel" data-slide-to="0" class="active"></li>
<li data-target="#myCarousel" data-slide-to="1"></li>
<li data-target="#myCarousel" data-slide-to="2"></li>
<li data-target="#myCarousel" data-slide-to="3"></li>
</ol>
<div class="carousel-inner">
<div class="carousel-item active">
<div class="container-fluid">
<div class="carousel-caption relative">
<div class="bluid">
<h1>Generation and <br>Solar Radiation </h1>
<p>In a solar power plant, the radiation coming from the sun's rays are
converted into electricity for domestic<br>industrial use using diverse systems such as solar
thermal plants or photovoltaic power plants.

52
 </p>
<br>
<a class="read_more" href="{% url 'solar_Model' %}">Solar Model
</a><a class="read_more" href="{% url 'Radiation_Model' %}">Radiation Model </a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<div class="container-fluid">
<div class="carousel-caption relative">
<div class="bluid">
<h1>Solar <br>Power Prediction </h1>
<p>Although both solar thermal plants and photovoltaic power plants use
solar energy to produce electricity, <br> the process to generate it is different in each case.
We'll explain in detail how these two types of facilities
</p>
<a class="read_more" href="{% url 'solar_Model' %}">Solar Model </a><a
class="read_more" href="{% url 'Radiation_Model' %}">Radiation Model </a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<div class="container-fluid">
<div class="carousel-caption relative">
<div class="bluid">
<h1>Solar Power<br>Solar Radiation </h1>
<p>There are many variations of passages of Lorem Ipsum <br>available,
but the majority have suffered alteration
53
 </p>
<a class="read_more" href="{% url 'solar_Model' %}">Solar Model
</a><a class="read_more" href="{% url 'Radiation_Model' %}">Radiation Model </a>
{% endif %}
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<div class="container-fluid">
<div class="carousel-caption relative">
<div class="bluid">
<h1>Solar<br> Radiation </h1>
<p>A solar power plant is a facility that converts solar radiation, made up
of light, heat, and ultraviolet radiation<br>into electricity suitable to be supplied to homes and
industries.</p>
<a class="read_more" href="{% url 'solar_Model' %}">Solar Model
</a><a class="read_more" href="{% url 'Radiation_Model' %}">Radiation Model </a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<a class="carousel-control-prev" href="#myCarousel" role="button" data-
slide="prev">
<i class="fa fa-angle-left" aria-hidden="true"></i>
<span class="sr-only">Previous</span>
</a>
<a class="carousel-control-next" href="#myCarousel" role="button" data-
slide="next">
54
 <i class="fa fa-angle-right" aria-hidden="true"></i>
<span class="sr-only">Next</span>
</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="we_do">
<div class="container">
<div class="row">
<div class="col-md-12">
<div class="titlepage text_align_center">
<h2>What we do </h2>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="row">
<div class="col-md-12">
<div id="we1" class="carousel slide" data-ride="carousel">
<ol class="carousel-indicators">
<li data-target="#we1" data-slide-to="0" class="active"></li>
<li data-target="#we1" data-slide-to="1"></li>
<li data-target="#we1" data-slide-to="2"></li>
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<div id="bo_ho" class="we_box text_align_left">
<i><img src="{% static 'images/we1.png' %}" alt="#"/></i>
<h3>What is a solar <br>power plant?</h3>
<p>A solar power plant is a facility that converts solar radiation,
made up of light, heat, and ultraviolet radiation, into electricity suitable to be supplied to homes
and industries.</p>
<a class="read_more"
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power">Read More</a>
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<h3>Types of solar power <br>how they work</h3>
<p>A solar thermal plant is a facility designed for converting
solar energy into electricity through a conventional thermodynamic cycle. However, unlike
thermal power plants ,</p>
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<h3>Solar photovoltaic <br>power plant</h3>
<p>The operation of a solar photovoltaic plant is based on photons
and light energy from the sun’s rays. The types of solar panels used in these types of facilities are
also different.</p>
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<h3>How do these solar <br>cells work?</h3>
<p>the electrons contained in the more external layers of the
photovoltaic cells absorb the radiation and generate direct current electricity. To build a solar
photovoltaic plant .</p>
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href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power">Read More</a>
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<h3>Machine Learning</h3>
<p>Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) and
computer science that focuses on the using data and algorithms to enable AI to imitate the way
that humans learn, gradually improving its accuracy.</p>
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<h3>What is regression in <br>machine learning?</h3>
<p>Regression is a supervised machine learning technique which is
used to predict continuous values. The ultimate goal of the regression algorithm is to plot a best-
fit line or a curve between the data.
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61
 CHAPTER VI
SYSTEM TESTING

62
 CHAPTER VI
SYSTEM TESTING
6.1 Introduction
The software which has been developed has to be tested in its validity. Testing is considered
to be the least creating phase whole cycle of system design. In the real sense it is the phase, which
helps to bring out the creativity of other phase makes it shine. Testing is the most important space
in the software development activity. In software development lifecycle, the main aim of the testing
process is the quality, the developed software is tested against attaining the required functionality
and performance. During the testing process the software is worked with some particular test case
and the output of the test cases are analyzed whether the software is working according to the
expectations or not. The success of the testing process in determining the error is mostly depends
upon the test case criteria, for testing any software we need to have a description of the expert
behavior of the system and method of determining whether the observed behavior conformed to the
expected behavior.

6.2 Developing Methodologies

The test process is initiated by developing a comprehensive plan to test the general
functionality and special features on a variety of platform combination. Strict quality control
procedures are used. The process verifies that the application meets the requirements specified in
the system requirements document and is bug free. The following are the consideration used to
develop the framework from developing the testing methodologies.

6.3 Test Objectives

 All fields entries must work properly.

 Detecting bugs as soon as feasible in any situation.
 Avoiding errors in project and product’s final versions.
 Inspect to see whether the customer requirements criterion has been satisfied.
 Last but not least, the primary purpose of testing is to gauge the project and product
level of quality.

63
6.4 Types of Testing

Since the error in the software can be injured at any stage, we have to carry out the testing
process at different levels during the development. The basic levels of testing are

1. Unit Testing.
2. Functional testing.
3. System Testing.
4. Performance testing.
5. Integration Testing.
6. Acceptance Testing.
6.4.1 Unit Testing

Unit testing involves the design of test cases that validate that the internal program logic
is functioning properly, and that program input produces valid outputs. All decision branches and
internal code flow should be validated. It is the testing of individual software units of the
application. It is done after the completion of an individual unit before integration. This is a
structural testing, this relies on knowledge of its construction and is invasive. Unit tests perform
basic tests at component level and test a specific business process, application, and/or system
configuration. Unit tests ensure that each unique path of a business process performs accurately
to the documented specifications and contains clearly defined inputs and expected results.

6.4.2 Functional testing

Functional tests provide systematic demonstrations that functions tested are available as
specified by the business and technical requirements, system documentation, and user manuals.
Functional testing is centered on the following items: Valid Input: Identified classes of valid
input must be accepted. Invalid Input: Identified classes of invalid input must be rejected.
Functions: Identified functions must be exercised. Output: Identified classes of application
outputs must be exercised. Systems Procedures: Interfacing systems or procedures must be
invoked.

6.4.3 System Testing

System testing ensures that the entire integrated software system meets requirements. It
tests a configuration to ensure known and predictable results. An example of system testing is the
64
configuration-oriented system integration test. System testing is based on process descriptions
and

65
 flows, emphasizing pre-driven process links and integration points.

6.4.4 Performance Testing

The Performance test ensures that the output will be produced within the time 49 limits,
and the time taken by the system for compiling, giving response to the users and requests being
sent to the system to retrieve the results.

6.4.5 Integration Testing

Software integration testing is the incremental integration testing of two or more integrated
software components on a single platform to produce failures caused by interface defects. The
task of the integration test is to check that component or software application, for example,
components in a software system or - one steps up - software applications at the company level -
interact without error. The following are the types of integration testing.

 Top-down integration
 Bottom-up integration

Top-down Integration

Top-down integration testing is an integration testing technique used in order to simulate

the behavior of the lower-level modules that are not yet integrated. Stubs are the modules that act
as temporary placement for a called module and give the same output as that of the actual
product.

Bottom-up Integration

Bottom-Up Integration testing is a kind of testing methodology in which the modules are
tested from the bottom of control flow upwards. Bottom-Up integration testing is opposite to the
Top-down integration testing. In this testing first the bottom modules of lower levels are tested
and then the higher-level modules are tested. As the lower Evel components are started first,
means all

the complex modules are tested find. So, any errors in the complex modules will be solved in
the early stage only.

6.4.6 Acceptance Testing

66
 Once the applications ready to be released the crucial step is user acceptance testing. In
this step a group representing a cross section of end users tests the application. The user
acceptance

67
 testing is done using real world scenarios perceptions relevant to the end users. User acceptance
testing is often the final step before rolling out the application. usually, the end users who will be
using the application test the application 50 before accepting the application. This type of testing
gives the end users the confidence that the application being delivered to them meets their
requirements.

6.4.7 Build the Test Plan

Any project can be divided into units that can be further performed for detailed
processing. Then a testing strategy for each of this unit is carried out. Testing helps to identify
the possible bugs in the individual components, so the component that has bugs can be identified
and can be rectified from errors.

6.5 Quality Assurance

Quality assurance defines the objectives of a project and reviews the overall activities. So
that errors are connected early in the development process.

Levels of Quality Assurance

Quality assurance comes in three main levels namely

 Testing
 Validation
 Certification

Testing

In system testing the common view is to eliminate program errors. This is extremely
difficult and time consuming. Since designers cannot prove 100% accuracy. A successful test,
then is one that finds errors.

Validation

Software validation checks that the software product satisfies or fits the intended use that
is the software meets the user requirements, not as specification artefacts or as needs of those
who will operate the software only but, as the needs of all the stakeholders. There are two ways
to perform software validation, internal and external. During internal software validation it is
assumed that the goals of the stakeholders were correctly understood and that they were

68
expressed

69
 in the requirement artefacts precisely and comprehensively. If the software meets the
requirement specification, it has been internally validated. External validation happens when it is
performed by asking the stakeholders if the software meets the needs.51 Different software
development methodologies call for different levels of users and stakeholder involvement and
feedback, so external validation occurs when all the stakeholders accept the software product and
express that it satisfies their needs. Such final external validation requires the use of an
acceptance test which is a dynamic test.

Alpha and Beta Testing

Alpha testing is a type of acceptance testing, performed to identify all possible

issues/bugs before releasing the product to everyday users or the public. The focus of this testing
is to simulate real users by using black box and white box techniques. The aim is to carry out the
tasks that a typical user might perform. Beta Testing of a product is performed by "real users of
the software application in a “real environment and can be considered as a form of external User
Acceptance Testing. Beta version of the software is released to a limited number of end-users of
the product to obtain feedback on the product quality. Beta testing reduces product failure risks
and provides increased quality of the product through custom validation.

6.5.1 Generic risk

Risk is an expectation of loss, a potential problem that may or may not occur in the
future. It is generally caused due to lack of information, control of Time. A possibility of
suffering from loss in the software development process is called a software risk. Reduce the
probability or likelihood of risk.

Risk monitoring

 A less associated with the event.

 The likelihood that the event will occur.
 The degree to which we can change the outcome.

Security Technologies and Policies

The software quality assurance consists of a variety of tasks associated with seven major activities.

 Application of technical methods

70
 Conduct of formal technical reviews
 Software testing
 Enforcement of standards52
 Control of change
 Measurement
 Record keeping and reporting

Security is part of the software development process, is an ongoing process involving

people and practices, and ensures application confidentiality, integrity, and availability. Secure
software is the result of a security aware software development process where security is built in
and the software is developed with security in mind. Security is most effective if planned and
managed throughout every stage of Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC), especially in
critical applications or those that process sensitive information. Common attributes of security
testing include authentication, authorization, confidentiality, availability, integrity, non-
repudiation and resilience. Security testing is essential to ensure that the system prevents
unauthorized users from accessing its resources and data. some application data is sent over the
internet which travels through a series of servers and network devices. This gives ample
opportunities to unscrupulous hackers. All secure systems implement security controls within the
software, Hardware, systems and networks- each component or process has a layer of isolation to
protect an organization's most valuable resource which is its data. There are various security
controls that can be incorporated into an application’s development process to ensure sound and
prevent unauthorized access.

71
CHAPTER VII
CONCLUSION
AND FUTURE
ENHANCEMENT

72
Conclusion

The Solar Inteligence predictive models power generation and Radiation Using Machine
Learning project leverages machine learning algorithms to forecast solar power generation
and radiation levels with high accuracy. By utilizing diverse datasets, including weather
conditions, geographical factors, and solar panel performance, machine learning techniques
such as regression models, time-series forecasting, and deep learning methods can predict
solar energy output under various conditions. These predictive models can optimize solar
energy production, improve efficiency, and assist in better decision- making for energy
storage and consumption. Ultimately, this project has the potential to enhance the reliability
of solar energy systems, promote sustainability, and support the transition towards
renewable energy by providing more precise and real-time predictions of solar radiation and
power generation.

Future Enhancement

1. Data Preprocessing and Feature Engineering:

 ARD (Automatic Relevance Determination)
 Feature Selection: ARD is useful for automatically determining the relevance of each
feature. It helps in identifying the most important weather and geographical factors
that influence solar radiation and power generation.
 Regularization: ARD uses a form of regularization that can prevent overfitting,
especially when dealing with large datasets and many features.
 Future Enhancement: Expand feature engineering by including additional
environmental data (e.g., dust, pollution levels) that may impact solar radiation.
 Ridge Regression
 Handling Multicollinearity: Ridge regression can help when features are correlated
(e.g., temperature, humidity, wind speed). It can be useful when there are many
weather variables that influence solar power generation simultaneously.
 Regularization: Ridge regression applies L2 regularization to prevent overfitting by
shrinking large coefficients.

73
  Future Enhancement: Use cross-validation techniques to identify the best alpha
(regularization parameter) and ensure the model generalizes well to unseen data.
2. Advanced Model Tuning:
Hyperparameter Tuning:
 Use techniques like Grid Search or Random Search to optimize key
hyperparameters, such as the number of trees in Random Forest, the depth of
decision trees, and the alpha value in Ridge regression.
 Random Forest and Decision Tree Regressors require tuning parameters such as
max depth, min samples split, n_estimators, and max features for optimal
performance.
Ensemble Techniques:
 Boosting: Consider using Gradient Boosting or XGBoost in conjunction with
Random Forest to improve prediction accuracy.
 Stacking Models: Combine multiple models like Ridge, Random Forest, and
Decision Tree Regression in a stacking ensemble model to reduce bias and variance
for more robust predictions.
3. Real-Time and Temporal Prediction Enhancement:
 Random Forest and Decision Tree Regressions are well-suited for handling
nonlinear relationships in time-series data (like solar radiation), making them ideal for
real-time forecasting.
 real-time predictions, ensure your model can process incoming data (like hourly or
daily weather forecasts) and update solar generation predictions accordingly.
 Feature Engineering for Time-Series: Include time-related features such as hour of
the day, day of the week, and seasonality (summer, winter) to capture temporal
dependencies that affect solar radiation.
4. Integration of Multiple Models (Hybrid Approach):
 ARD with Ridge Regression: Combine ARD with Ridge Regression to handle both
feature selection and multicollinearity. ARD will help reduce irrelevant features, and
Ridge regression will shrink coefficients to prevent overfitting, especially when
working with a large number of features.

 Hybrid Random Forest and Decision Tree Models: Use Random Forests for broad,
high-level predictions (such as total solar power generation) and Decision Tree
74
 Regression for more specific predictions (such as power generation in particular weather
conditions).
 Ensemble Methods: Create hybrid models by combining Random Forests, Ridge
Regression, and Decision Tree Regressions in a stacked ensemble. This approach will
allow each model to specialize in different aspects of prediction (e.g., Ridge for smooth
predictions, Random Forest for non-linear patterns, Decision Trees for specific
conditions).
5. Model Evaluation and Performance Improvement:
 Cross-Validation: Use k-fold cross-validation to evaluate the models' generalization
ability and avoid overfitting, especially when working with large, diverse datasets (e.g.,
different geographical areas).
 Evaluation Metrics: Track metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean
Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared for regression models to measure prediction
accuracy.
 Feature Importance: For Random Forest and Decision Trees, extract feature importance
to understand which features contribute most to the prediction of solar power generation
and radiation. This can help with feature selection in future model iterations.
6. Scalability and Deployment:
 Cloud Deployment: Deploy models on cloud platforms such as AWS, Google Cloud, or
Microsoft Azure to allow for scalable computation and real-time data processing.
 Edge Computing: Consider deploying the model at the edge (e.g., on IoT devices
installed on solar panels) for real-time decision-making and faster predictions, especially
for solar farms or distributed energy systems.
7. Enhanced Interpretation and Explainability:
 SHAP Values: Use SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values to interpret the
impact of each feature on the predictions made by the model. This will help understand
how features like temperature, humidity, and cloud cover influence solar power
generation and radiation.

 LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations): Use LIME for local model

75
 explanations, especially when working with complex models like Random Forests or
Decision Trees, to explain individual predictions.
8. Energy Storage and Grid Integration:
 Energy Storage Predictions: Integrate these predictive models with energy storage
systems to forecast when to store excess energy and when to discharge it, based on
predicted solar power generation.
 Smart Grid: Use these models to optimize grid integration, where the predictions inform
grid operators about solar energy availability, helping to balance supply and demand
more efficiently.

76
CHAPTER VIII
APPENDICES

77
 APPENDIX I

A1.1 Screenshot

Fig A 1.1 Home page

Fig A 1.2 User Login page

78
 Fig A 1.3 Register page

Fig A 1.4 Admin Login page

79
 Fig A 1.5 Admin Data page

Fig A 1.6 Solar prediction page

80
Fig A 1.7 Solar prediction output page

Fig A 1. 8 Radiation prediction page

81
 Fig A 1.9 Radiation prediction output page

Fig A 1.10 Solar Data prediction Database output page

82
Fig A 1.11 Radiation Data prediction Database output page

Fig A 1.12 profile page

83
CHAPTER IX
REFERENCES
AND
BIBLIOGRAPHY

84
A2.1 References

[1] Neha Sehrawat, Sahil Vashisht, Amritpal Singh, "Solar Irradiance Forecasting Models Using
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[2] Bharat Girdhani, Meena Agrawal, "Prediction of Daily Photovoltaic Plant Energy Output
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A2.2 Bibliography

[1] https://youtu.be/z_dbnYHAQYg?feature=shared
[2] https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/haar-cascades-explained-38210e57970d
[3] https://flask.palletsprojects.com/
[4] https://www.sqlite.org/
[5] https://docs.opencv.org/4.x/dc/dc3/tutorial_py_face_recognition.html
[6] https://developer.mozilla.org/
[7] https://www.python.org/doc/

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