Assessing Your Financial Risk in
2025: A 3-Level Framework
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Today’s Presenters
Hilda Polanco Teresa Stafford-Wright Lorin Thies
Market Managing Principal, Chief Executive Director Director, Fund Development
BDO USA Hope & Healing Survivor Resource Center 904WARD
Dana Britto Ruth McCambridge
NFC Moderator and Founder Director of Content
Principal of Cultivar Consulting, LLC Nonprofit Financial Commons
NFC Moderators
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Wade Rogers, CPA
NFC Moderator even with edits - without clear credit
Financial Consulting and Training for Nonprofits
or attribution.
Dana Britto
NFC Moderator and Founder &
Principal of Cultivar Consulting, LLC
Impact of Government Grants on Nonprofits
At least 100,000 nonprofits receive a total of $303 billion in government grants annually, with
these grants representing a primary revenue source for over a third of these nonprofits
Source: Candid
Impact of Government Grants on Nonprofits
Source: Candid
The Broad Impact of Potential Large Federal
Cuts
Government funding, historically considered
relatively predictable, is already being impacted
by freezes and cuts
➢ Larger government-funded nonprofits may be most at risk
due to their relative dependence on this funding
➢ Increased scrutiny and compliance problems may
particularly impact smaller government-funded nonprofits
The Broad Impact of Potential Large Federal
Cuts (Continued)
Even nonprofits that do not receive any Government
funding could likely be impacted by shifts at the
federal level
➢ Unpredictability of private funds could increase if and
when individual, corporate and foundation donors change
their priorities in response to threats at the federal level
➢ Private foundations would have to increase their
grantmaking by an estimated 282% to fully offset
complete cuts in government grants (excluding
government contracts)
➢ Given these circumstances, competition for private
grants and individual contributions will likely increase
with any drastic federal cuts
Hilda Polanco
Market Managing Principal,
BDO USA
Assessing the Risk Landscape
Minimal Expected Impact: Significant Areas at Risk: Existential Redefinition:
Maintain Current Business Model Rightsizing or Alternative
Operations Recalibration Operating Model
Either no changes to revenue OR Moderate to significant funding Significant funding decreases from
minor funding decreases from some, decreases from one or multiple primary revenue sources
but not all, revenue sources revenue streams
• Programs and/or core services
• Programs are sustained or • One or more programs may wind are unable to be maintained at
moderately reduced down with focus shifting to current levels
delivery of core services
• Focus on minimizing controllable • Dramatic restructuring which
expenses that do not • Staffing and/or infrastructure might include moving to fiscal
significantly impact mission may be significantly reduced sponsorship, consolidation, or
activities sunsetting
Case Study
Lorin Thies
Director, Fund Development
904WARD
Case Study
Teresa Stafford-Wright
Chief Executive Director
Hope & Healing Survivor Resource Center
Hilda Polanco
Market Managing Principal,
BDO USA
Revenue Strategy
Individual Foundations Corporations Government Earned In-Kind
Contributions Revenue
SCENARIO PLANNING
Revenue Strategy
A Three-Dimensional Approach to Revenue Planning
SCENARIO PLANNING
Revenue Mix Example
DIVERSE SOURCES BUT LOW FLEXIBILITY
Individual,
10% Unrestricted
Funding, 15%
Foundation Government
Grants, 35% Contracts, 55%
Restricted
Funding, 85%
SCENARIO PLANNING
Layering in Revenue Predictability
To be
Identified,
10%
Considerations When Analyzing
Predictability:
Characteristics of each revenue stream
Likely, 20% Tolerance for including uncommitted
sources in the budget
Committed, Track record of prior performance
70%
Portion of funding made up of multi-year
commitments
Revenue Likelihood
Committed Pending To Be Raised
Already confirmed Already requested Remaining revenue
Secured and planning from a specific source needed
to release from Could have a No specific source
Restrictions within the likelihood of “High”, identified
fiscal year “Medium” or “Low”
May also have a %
likelihood
SCENARIO PLANNING
Q&A
Ruth McCambridge
Director of Content
Nonprofit Financial Commons
We’ve been here (or near here) before.
Your promise fulfillment is your call on social capital – and that social
capital comes with political will and influence, extra hands and voices,
information, and treasure$$$$$. Make sure your promise is a clarion call.
What is sacred? What is not?
Nurture these and seek other ways if necessary Eliminate, outsource or compromise
Steve Zimmerman and Jeanne Bell, Jim Collins, C.K Pralahad
Words Create Worlds –
which of your self-protections don’t serve you?
Graie Hagans, Bend the Arc
The highest and most powerful leverage points in a system
6. The structure of information flows (who does and does not have access to information).
5. The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishments, constraints).
4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure.
3. The goals of the system.
2. The mindset or paradigm out of which the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays,
parameters — arises.
1. The power to transcend paradigms.
Donella Meadows
Resources and Wrap Up
Financial Management Resources
► This library of
free tools and
resources was
created in
collaboration
with the
Wallace
Foundation to StrongNonprofits.org
help
organizations
become
“fiscally fit.”
SCENARIO PLANNING
Revenue Scenario Planning
SCENARIO PLANNING
Cash Flow Projections
Cash Flow Projection Template + Online Tutorial www.strongnonprofits.org
SCENARIO PLANNING
Financial
Health
Analysis
strongnonprofits.org
SCENARIO PLANNING
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