AI-Driven Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting

with Remote Sensing Data

Author Name 1* * , Author Name2
1
Designation, Department Name, Collage Name, City
2
Designation, Department Name, Collage Name, City

Abstract

Floods are among the most devastating disasters, presenting significant dangers to human
life, property, and infrastructure. Accurate and prompt flood detection and forecasting are
essential for disaster preparation, early warning systems, as well as risk management.
Traditional methods often depend on both physical & statistical models, which may be
constrained by data complexity and fluctuating environmental circumstances. A powerful
substitute in recent years, "machine learning (ML)" is skilled in spotting intricate,
nonlinear patterns in large datasets. This paper examines the use of many machine
learning approaches, such as Decision Trees, Random Forests, "Support Vector
Machines", Neural Networks, "Gradient Boosting", & Logistic Regression, in flood
prediction and detection. It emphasises the data sources, preprocessing techniques,
assessment measures, as well as integration with "Internet of Things" (IoT) as well as edge
computing technologies. The research also examines the strengths, limitations, as well as
practical applicability of various models. The study continues by highlighting future
research avenues, underscoring the promise of hybrid models, deep learning, as well as
explainable AI in improving both the reliability and accuracy of flood prediction systems.
Keywords: Flood Prediction, Flood Detection, Flood Forecasting, Machine Learning, Early
Warning System, Data-Driven Models, Rainfall Forecasting, Disaster Management, Hydrology.

I. INTRODUCTION

Flooding is a highly devastating natural event, resulting in a huge loss of life and property.
Conventional flood forecasting techniques often depend on intricate and time-consuming
hydraulic and hydrological models. The advent of "machine learning (ML)" has revolutionised
this field by providing improved efficiency and accuracy in predictive capabilities. Machine
learning algorithms can analyse large datasets from several sources, including historical flood
records, real-time meteorological data, as well as satellite imagery, to forecast flood events with
higher accuracy. [1]

*
Flood prediction systems have been significantly improved in recent years by combining
machine learning with remote sensing as well as Geographic Information Systems (GIS). These
tools provide geographical analysis as well as visualisation of flood-prone areas, aiding
authorities in disseminating early warnings and organising disaster responses. Methods include
"Artificial Neural Networks" (ANN), "Support Vector Machines" (SVM), as well as Random
Forests have shown significant accuracy in forecasting flood occurrences when trained on high-
quality datasets. Furthermore, real-time data collection via Internet of Things (IoT) sensors and
meteorological stations enhances the dynamic updating of models, hence augmenting the
timeliness as well as reliability of predictions. [2]
In the whole world India has the greatest yearly risk of floods. Water logging usually occurs in
low-lying regions of major cities. In these places, flood forecasting is very important. In recent
years, several areas, including "Assam, Bihar, Goa, Orissa, Pune, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu,
Karnataka, Kerala, and Gujarat," have experienced flooding.
Chennai saw 1049 millimetres (mm) of rain in November 2015. The precipitation total of 1088
mm was the highest since 1918. The Kanchipuram district receives an average of 64 cm of
rainfall between October and December. It had the highest amount of precipitation, 181.5 cm,
which is 183% higher than normal. Although 146 cm of rain was reported, the Tiruvallur area
typically receives 59 cm.
Despite extensive research on flood prediction, few methodologies provide accurate forecasts.
When analysing flood predictions, machine learning is frequently used. Machine learning
provides many ways for enhanced problem prediction. This study proposes estimating flash
floods to avoid flood-prone areas. Establishing the ML algorithm model is the tactic. For more
precise short-term projections in metropolitan areas, it takes the flood component into account.
Information retrieval may take hours, depending on the data transfer mode. Nevertheless,
streams of photos and videos may provide valuable information for a range of uses. An early
warning system for managing and avoiding flooding is one use for the visual sensing approach.
Visual sensing systems rely on image processing, which involves using algorithms to derive
useful information from digital images. [3]

II. RELATED WORK

[4] Frequent emergencies are a major issue for mankind. The world has experienced countless
natural as well as man-made disasters. More people have been impacted by floods than any other
disaster in the 21st century, according to a new analysis. Africa was the second most vulnerable
continent after Asia, with 43% of disasters in 2019. Any nation's leadership, especially in flood-
prone areas, must manage floods to preserve the environment and the population. Predictive
machine learning and analytics may improve risk management. Since flood risk cannot be
eradicated, scientific mitigation is essential. The research recommends using machine learning to
identify and forecast pluvial floods. Fuzzy rule classification will be used to assess the machine
learning approach on pluvial flood conditioning factors.
[5] Climate change causes complex global floods. Certain gauging stations predict floods,
although their accuracy is low. Unexpected floods damage lives and infrastructure. Our study is
focused on developing a deep learning-based system that can accurately identify and monitor
floods in real-time. This study recommends wireless sensor networking for flood detection due to
its reliability, low power, and large area connectivity. Our convolutional neural networks also
discover flood-affected organisms.
[6] Floods, one of nature's worst calamities, destroy infrastructure, crops, lives, and the economy.
Flood forecasting and catastrophe management have been extensively studied. Floods are hard to
forecast in real time. Predicting water levels and velocities over a large area requires data and
computationally expensive flood propagation models. This study uses numerous machine
learning models to forecast floods and provide policy suggestions to reduce their risk. This study
will use Decision Tree Classifier, "Binary Logistic Regression", K-"Nearest Neighbour (KNN)",
and Support Vector Classifier (SVC) to make accurate predictions. A comparative study will use
the findings to evaluate whether model is more accurate.
[7] Floods are one of worst natural calamities, destroying infrastructure, crops, people, and the
economy. Flood forecasting and catastrophe management have been extensively studied. Floods
are hard to forecast in real time. Predicting water levels and velocities over a large area requires
computationally complex flood propagation models and data. In order to lessen the likelihood of
this natural catastrophe and provide legislative remedies, this study forecasts floods using several
machine learning techniques. "Decision Tree Classifier", "Support Vector Classifier" (the SVC),
K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), and Binary Logistic Regression will all be used in our study to
make correct predictions. In order to determine which model is more correct, the results will be
compared.
[8] Flooding, a complicated phenomenon that happens all across the world, is the ultimate result
of climate change. While certain gauging stations are employed to predict the probability of
floods, their accuracy is low. In addition to killing people, unexpected floods are damaging
important infrastructure. Our study's overarching goal is to design a deep learning-based system
for accurate, real-time flood warning and monitoring. This paper proposes a method for flood
detection using "wireless sensor networking technology" that is dependable, uses little power,
and communicates over large areas. We also search for any live organisms affected by the flood
using a convolutional neural network.
[9] Floods are our century's most catastrophic disaster. Unreliable flood predictions has caused
severe infrastructure and human losses. This reinforces the need for flood prediction. This
project aims to produce the best flood model. AI calculations and a comprehensive, effective, as
well as accurate flood expectation framework will enable residents and the government obtain
the relief they need. Thus, the Decision Tree Model is being created. This method performs
dataset calculations with varying precision. The software forecasts floods using AI and notifies
local and governmental institutions via Android. Gradient Boost, Random Forest, as well as
Decision Tree are being compared. This approach seeks to improve prediction by using more
complicated data and a sophisticated algorithm.
[10] Floods, one of the greatest natural calamities, must be dealt swiftly. Satellite imaging
monitors and assesses flood damage. By evaluating remote sensing data, effective and scalable
machine learning and deep learning may improve flood control and detection. Floods are
predicted using Sentinel-1 SAR data and Random Forest (RF) and "Histogram-based Gradient
Boosting Decision Tree" machine learning algorithms. HHO and ACO metaheuristics optimised
hyperparameters. To improve model performance and flooded pixel identification, the pre-
trained VGG-16 "Neural Network" was employed as the deep feature extractor. After that, the
"four ensemble flood detection models" (RF-HHO, RF-ACO, HGBDT-HHO, and HGBDT-
ACO) were compared using statistical measures. The "four ensemble flood detection
models" were all successfully validated and tested. Validation accuracy for the models was over
95%, while testing accuracy was above 97%. Top model HGBDT-ACO identified flood pixels
with the greatest accuracy as well as lowest error rate. HGBDT models did better than RF
models because they learnt quicker and performed similarly. Thus, they were more efficient and
computationally complex.
[11] Flooding happens when a water body surges above its capacity, engulfing dry land. Heavy
rain and runoff are the main causes of floods, which immerse neighbouring land regions in water
and destroy buildings, bridges, power supply, transportation, and the economy. Sensor
technologies and active parameter monitoring have been used to predict flood warnings for
years. Many future-use data sets were created. Data analytics methods have emerged as a result
of the renaissance of machine learning and the concept of intelligent machines. These approaches
enable computers to learn from data and create a model equation that can be used to forecast
future occurrences. To maximise the utility of the datasets we'll be using to train a Decision
Tree-based weak prediction model, we propose a Flood Detection approach that makes use of the
"Gradient Boost Algorithm" for data type and regression. To prevent the issue, the results could
be presented to the appropriate authorities. This method produces accurate predictions and was
developed specifically for these kinds of uses. Accurate datasets for training models are provided
by means of sensor and remote sensing technologies.
[12] Flooding is water spilling onto dry land or a considerable rise in water that impacts human
existence. As one of the most prevalent natural events, it causes major financial issues for assets
and products and affects human lives. Residents would benefit from preventing such floods so
they may flee flood-prone areas before they happen. Academics have proposed several flood
solutions, including prediction models and infrastructure. All recommended economic cures fail
in Somalia. In order to anticipate the humanitarian consequences of flooding, this project seeks
to develop a powerful "real-time flood detection system" using machine learning algorithms such
as Random-Forest, Naive-Bayes, and J48. The studies conducted using this strategy will address
the fourth issue and demonstrate how a combination of Arduino as well as GSM modems might
imitate a one-of-a-kind system for monitoring water levels. Classification accuracy for Random
Forest is 98.7 percent, while that of J48 and Naive Bayes are 88.1 and 84.2 percent, respectively,
according to the study. The recommended flood prevention method enhances research by using
artificial intelligence and data mining.
[13] Besides damaging lifelines and infrastructure, urban flooding endangers people and autos.
To understand how much flooding an area may face at any one time, cities and local authorities
need faster flood detection techniques. Thus, flood control orders are issued quickly, allowing
individuals as well as motorists to avoid flooded areas. In order to create and train "machine-
learning models" for the flood detection in San Diego, CA, USA, this study makes use of
remotely sensed satellite photographs and records of road closures maintained by the police
department. To identify flooded pixels in photos and assess their efficacy, Sentinel 1 flood data
is input into supervised and unsupervised machine learning models such as Maximum
Likelihood Classifier (MLC), "Support Vector Machine" (SVM), as well as Random Forest
(RF). We also build an unsupervised ML system that uses iso-clustering, fuzzy rules, and the
Otsu algorithm to identify urban floods. Change detection (CD) is used. Accuracy measurements
were 0.69, 0.87, 0.83, and 0.87, while F1-scores were 0.67, 0.85, 0.79, as well as 0.85, and recall
values were 0.9, 0.85, & 0.9, according to the performance assessment of the RF, the SVM,
MLC, as well as CD models. Precision values were 0.53, 0.85, 0.75, as well as 0.81,
respectively. The novel unsupervised flood picture classification and detection method uses less
data and processing time to get higher results, allowing for speedier flood mapping. If other
flood-prone cities adopt this methodological approach, they may be able to use satellite photos to
better identify nuisance floods and mitigate the risks associated with building and planning for
urban infrastructure and transportation.
[14] Flooding is the worst land calamity. Flooding will worsen during storms. Risk reduction,
preparation, saving lives, and property damage reduction are all goals of the research into flood
prediction models. Artificial intelligence has improved the consistency and execution of financial
planning and forecasting in the last two years. This activity may prioritise all participants'
sentiments. Flood warning, mitigation, and forecast need AI models. Machine learning
techniques are widely used since they need a lot of computing power for little data.
Representative vectors with the highest scores may come from a tiny data set. The precise and
high-scoring tree won. In order to compare and evaluate different approaches, this flood forecast
makes use of machine learning techniques such as logistic regression and decision trees. Logistic
regression may beat other methods in accuracy, efficiency, and improvement. One of the worst
natural disasters, flooding may inflict lifelong devastation and misery. Farmers are the saddest
people when their hard effort fails. A safe exposure model is required to monitor water level and
velocity over a vast region. These models enhance projections in numerous ways. Additionally,
these models properly predict floods in a particular year but don't provide detailed answers.
III. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
A. Limitations of Traditional Flood Prediction Models
Traditional flood prediction techniques primarily depend on hydrological as well as hydraulic
models that replicate "natural water systems" using physical as well as mathematical equations.
Parameters like "rainfall-runoff relationships," infiltration rates, "terrain topography", as well as
"river geometry" are crucial to models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the
Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Although successful in
several organised settings, they need substantial domain-specific expertise, manual adjustment,
and significant computing resources.
A significant limitation is their restricted adaptability in managing high-dimensional & non-
linear data, typical of dynamic environmental systems. Moreover, their reliance on fixed
thresholds as well as assumptions often results in diminished predictive accuracy amid swiftly
changing climatic conditions, urban expansion, and unpredictable hydrometeorological
occurrences. These models also encounter difficulties in real-time applications because to delay
in data processing and their incapacity to adapt to changing data streams. The need for scalable
and accurate flood forecasts has led to a critical shortage of adaptive, data-driven approaches.
B. “Emergence of Machine Learning in Flood Prediction”
Machine learning (ML) has arisen as a revolutionary substitute for conventional flood prediction
by using historical and current information to reveal intricate correlations among many factors.
In contrast to physical models, machine learning algorithms may autonomously discern patterns
and connections from extensive datasets without requiring intricate physical representations of
the system.
Accurate and timely flood warnings can be generated by integrating diverse and heterogeneous
features, including rainfall intensity, rivers water levels, land use data, soil saturation, humidity,
as well as weather forecasts. Machine learning models that fall into this category include
"Support Vector Machines" (SVM), Decision Trees, "Random Forests", Neural Networks, along
with Gradient Boosting algorithms. These models are especially advantageous for non-linear &
high-dimensional datasets, making them suitable for flood-prone areas where several
interdependent factors affect results.
Furthermore, developments in sensor networks & remote sensing have facilitated more
accessible real-time data collecting, enabling machine learning systems to perpetually update and
enhance predictions. The amalgamation of machine learning with cloud computing and the
Internet of Things significantly augments its ability for real-time flood monitoring as well as
decision-making assistance systems.
C. Role of HistGradientBoostingClassifier
This review focusses on the "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier
(HistGradientBoostingClassifier)" as the principal model for flood detection and prediction. This
classifier enhances the conventional gradient boosting framework by including a histogram-
based binning method, which significantly decreases memory consumption and expedites
computation. The model converts continuous numerical characteristics into discrete bins before
to fitting the weak learners (decision trees), facilitating the effective management of large-scale
tabular information.
HistGradientBoostingClassifier provides robust regularisation features and inherently
accommodates missing values, making it effective in noisy or incomplete datasets often
encountered in environmental monitoring. It also addresses unbalanced classification challenges
—such as identifying infrequent flood occurrences—more efficiently than other baseline models,
owing to its sophisticated splitting techniques and emphasis on difficult-to-predict instances
during boosting rounds.
By using hyperparameter adjustment (such as learning rate, number of bins, and maximum
depth), the model attains enhanced accuracy, recall, as well as precision in flood classification
tasks. Its capacity to encapsulate intricate, non-linear interactions among environmental factors
and function well in real-time settings establishes it as a formidable instrument in advanced flood
forecasting systems.
IV. METHODOLGY

The methodology chapter outlines the methodological technique used to achieve the study goals
of flood detection and prediction using machine learning. This section establishes the basis for
understanding the collection, processing, analysis, as well as modelling of the data to provide
precise and timely flood predictions. The intricacy of flood occurrences, shaped by several
dynamic parameters like the rainfall intensity, "river water levels", soil saturation, as well as
climatic conditions, renders a data-driven method using machine learning a viable alternative to
traditional hydrological models.

Figure 0-1 Proposed Model Flow

The proposed model for real-time flood prediction is a "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting
Classifier (HistGradientBoostingClassifier)". This model is selected for its enhanced accuracy,
expedited training time, and capacity to manage intricate, non-linear interactions among
variables, which are essential for dependable flood forecasting. Gradient Boosting is the
ensemble learning technique that constructs a robust classifier by amalgamating the outputs of
several weak learners, usually decision trees. The histogram-based alternative enhances this
process by increasing processing performance and managing massive datasets more efficiently.
The study proposes the "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier
(HistGradientBoostingClassifier)" for flood prediction, owing to its efficiency, accuracy, and
capability to manage enormous datasets. This section explores the theoretical basis,
implementation procedures, rationale for selection, benefits, and its particular use in flood
forecasting.

Figure 0-2 F1 scores bar graph Histogram-based Gradient Boosting model

A. Data Collection
The effectiveness of "machine learning-based flood prediction systems" is mostly contingent on
the quality, diversity, and “comprehensiveness” of the used datasets. This work employs two
unique but complementary datasets sourced from open platforms, that together augment the
training, validation, as well as testing of robust predictive models. Despite originating from
different sources, both databases provide significant meteorological as well as hydrological
information vital to regions susceptible to flooding in India.
For some places in Bangladesh, the data covers the years 1948–2013 and contains monthly
averages for things like high temperature, low humidity, wind speed, temperature, cloud cover,
and bright sunshine. Includes X and Y coordinates, as well as height and longitude, as well as the
weather station numbers.
Having access to high-quality data that is also contextually relevant is crucial for developing a
robust and dependable flood prediction model. This research gathered a comprehensive dataset
from publicly accessible meteorological and hydrological information, including several
parameters that affect flood episodes. These records include many decades and reflect consistent
data gathered from several weather monitoring stations in South Asian locations that exhibit
similar meteorological and monsoonal traits with flood-prone areas within India.
The collection combines historical atmospheric data with real-time hydrological metrics, offering
a comprehensive perspective on the environmental factors that contribute to flood events. This
integration facilitates the examination of long-term climate patterns, seasonal precipitation
dynamics, and the development of models that can provide precise and prompt flood alerts.
 Table 1 Integrated Historical and Real-Time Meteorological Dataset for Flood Prediction

Name Unit
Station Names
Year
Month
Max Temp Celsius
Min Temp Celsius
Rainfall cm
Relative Humidity Percentage
Wind Speed meters per second
Cloud Coverage Okta
Bright Sunshine Hours per day
Station number
X Coordinate
Y Coordinate
Latitude
Longitude
Altitude meter
Period
Flood? 1(Yes)
.”
The presence of the binary target variable denoting flood status facilitates the use of supervised
machine learning methods, making the dataset suitable for classification-oriented predictive
modelling. The inclusion of real-time data, including river water levels and soil moisture, makes
the model better at predicting when floods will happen.

Figure 0-3 Data Sample

The dataset was preprocessed to address issues such as missing values, inconsistent formats, and
skewed distributions prior to model building. To improve data quality and model efficacy,
methods such as power translation, standardisation, and feature engineering—including
polynomial features, interaction terms, and temperature range—were used.
The dataset's richness and variety facilitate the development of time series forecasting models as
well as classification algorithms. It establishes a robust basis for developing precise, dependable,
as well as real-time flood prediction systems which may substantially enhance early warning
efforts as well as disaster risk reduction initiatives.
This unified dataset enables both "time series forecasting models and categorisation methods". It
allows the creation of prediction models which are both accurate and suitable for real-time
application in flood-prone areas, hence improving disaster preparedness and risk mitigation
strategies.
B. “Data Pre-Processing”
The "flood prediction pipeline" would be incomplete without data pre-processing, which cleans,
organises, and otherwise prepares the raw data for training accurate and efficient machine
learning models. The relevance and accuracy of the input data greatly determine the predictive
system's performance. This project, which focusses on flood prediction using meteorological as
well as environmental information, included extensive pre-processing to manage missing values,
normalise data, create meaningful features, and rectify class imbalance.
Handling Missing Values and Data Formatting: The initial dataset, including rainfall and
related meteorological data, often exhibits missing or inconsistent entries attributable to sensor
malfunctions or lapses in data collection. To resolve this issue, missing data were imputed by
statistical methods such mean substitution, therefore preserving critical information.
Additionally, the 'YEAR' column was converted into a standardised datetime format with
Python's pandas module to enable time series operations and maintain chronological consistency
in modelling.
Feature Construction and Transformation: To increase the prediction capability of the
"machine learning model", new mathematical features were derived from the current dataset.
This included creating derived features that depict monthly as well as seasonal rainfall trends,
cumulative rainfall at designated periods, and changes in precipitation patterns. These designed
attributes enhance the model's understanding of temporal relationships and environmental
changes. Furthermore, the Yeo-Johnson approach was used for power transformation to stabilise
variance and normalise the distribution of the skewed data. This modification is very beneficial
for machine learning models that are sensitive to data distribution, such gradient boosting as well
as vector machines. It guarantees which each feature contributes proportionately throughout the
training process.
Data Standardization: To guarantee that all input characteristics contribute uniformly to the
model, data standardisation was executed with StandardScaler from Scikit-learn. Standardisation
normalises features to possess a mean of zero and a variance of one, hence avoiding features
with higher numeric ranges from overshadowing model training. This is particularly significant
for distance-based or gradient-based models, including SVMs and gradient boosting classifiers.
Feature Selection: After the creation of more features, the dataset's dimensionality increased,
potentially leading to multicollinearity and elevated computational costs. Feature selection was
performed using the "ANOVA F-test (SelectKBest) method." This statistical strategy evaluates
the association between each parameter as well as the desired variable (flood condition) to
discover those with the highest predictive power. The eight most significant features were
retained according to the F-scores. The variables encompassed precipitation, soil moisture, river
water levels, humidity, temperature range, and engineering aspects, including the correlation
between precipitation and temperature. The removal of unnecessary features improved model
performance and reduced overfitting.
Imbalance Handling: Flood prediction datasets often demonstrate imbalance, with flood events
(label = 1) much less common than non-flood occurrences (label = 0). This discrepancy may
result in the model favouring the predominant class, hence diminishing its sensitivity to genuine
flood occurrences. The "Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique" (SMOTE) was used to
address this problem. By extrapolating from current samples, SMOTE creates synthetic instances
of the minority class, bringing the dataset into balance without sacrificing any data. Improving
the model's memory & accuracy for high-risk predictions, this phase was critical in strengthening
its capacity to identify real flood occurrences.
Train-Test Split: The dataset was partitioned into training and testing sets to facilitate model
evaluation. Evaluating the model's generalisability and practical usefulness is made easier by
training it on a subset of the data and then testing it on new data. The combination of these pre-
processing approaches produced a high-quality dataset suitable for training sophisticated models
such as the “Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier”, facilitating dependable and accurate
flood prediction.
C. Model Building and Hyperparameter Tuning
The model building stage is crucial to a flood prediction system's capacity to identify trends in
the past and forecast future flood events. Several machine learning models were investigated and
put into practice in this research to assess how well they predicted flood events. The models were
chosen for their ability to classify data, their capacity to withstand noise, and their
appropriateness for tabular and unbalanced data.
Model Selection: A number of machine learning classification models, such as "Support Vector
Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron Classifier (MLPClassifier), AdaBoost Classifier,
SGDClassifier, Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier (HistGradientBoostingClassifier),
and Logistic Regression," were taken into consideration for the prediction and detection of flood
events. When it comes to categorisation jobs, each of these models offers distinct advantages.
Table 2 Machine Learning Models Used for Flood Prediction

Classifier Description Use Case

 SVM (Support Vector Effective in managing high- Classification tasks
Machine) dimensional spaces and non-linear with complex
boundaries using kernel functions. boundaries.
MLPClassifier A type of feedforward neural Analyzing flood data
network suitable for capturing and other complex
complex, non-linear relationships. datasets.
AdaBoost An ensemble learning algorithm Enhancing accuracy
that improves model performance in various
by combining multiple weak classification tasks.
classifiers.
SGDClassifier Efficient for large-scale data and Real-time predictions
online learning, especially with and large datasets.
sparse datasets.
HistGradientBoostingClassifier A faster variant of traditional Reducing memory
gradient boosting that discretizes consumption while
continuous features into maintaining accuracy.
histograms.
Logistic Regression Serves as a baseline model, useful Binary classification,
for binary classification tasks. e.g., flood vs. no
flood events.
.”
Hyperparameter tweaking: GridSearchCV was used to enhance performance of every
“machine learning model”. This extensive search approach systematically assesses
hyperparameter combinations using cross-validation, determining the optimal configuration for
enhanced accuracy and generalisability.
Table 3 The tuned hyperparameters for each model

Model Tuned Hyperparameters

SVM Kernel type (linear, RBF), C (regularization), Gamma
MLPClassifier Hidden layer sizes, Activation function (relu, tanh),
Learning rate
AdaBoost Number of estimators, Learning rate
SGDClassifier Loss function (hinge, log), Penalty (l1, l2), Learning rate
HistGradientBoostingClassifier Learning rate, Maximum depth, Number of bins
Logistic Regression Solver (liblinear, saga), Penalty (l2, none), Regularization
strength (C)
.”
Proposed Model: HistGradientBoostingClassifier
The HistGradientBoostingClassifier is the efficient gradient boosting solution designed for
tabular data. It functions by partitioning continuous input data into discrete bins (histograms), so
considerably expediting the training process and reducing memory use. Unlike traditional
gradient boosting, which creates trees with precise thresholds for continuous variables, this
method use histograms to approximate splits, enabling greater scalability with larger datasets and
increased speed without significant loss of accuracy.
The HistGradientBoostingClassifier is the complex ensemble learning method that improves
upon the traditional Gradient Boosting framework. By merging many decision trees, which are
poor learners, it builds robust prediction models by learning from past mistakes and improving
upon them. The histogram-based variant is distinguished by its novel method of transforming
continuous data into discrete histogram bins. This alteration dramatically accelerates model
training and reduces memory use without sacrificing performance.
Transforming "continuous input variables" into discrete bins simplifies the identification of splits
during tree construction, hence accelerating computation. Despite this optimisation, it maintains
the flexibility and capability to depict complex, non-linear interactions. Its tolerance for missing
values as well as categorical variables enhances its applicability in actual flood prediction
scenarios where data inaccuracies are prevalent.
The objective of using the HistGradientBoostingClassifier in flood prediction is to develop a
high-performing and efficient model capable of reliably classifying flood-prone instances by
identifying complicated, non-linear patterns within extensive and unbalanced meteorological
datasets. This approach improves prediction speed and memory efficiency by transforming
continuous data into discrete histograms, it is perfect for use in real-time scenarios that need for
accurate and quick flood detection.
V. “RESULTS AND DISCUSSION”

This section outlines the outcomes obtained from the installation and assessment of various
"machine learning models" for flood prediction by employing meteorological data. The models
were trained on a preprocessed dataset with sophisticated approaches, including "feature
selection (ANOVA F-test), dimensionality reduction (PCA), class balancing (SMOTE), power
transformation (Yeo-Johnson), and standardisation" to optimise model performance.
Among the trained models, including "SVM, MLPClassifier, SGDClassifier, AdaBoost, Logistic
Regression, as well as HistGradientBoostingClassifier, the Histogram-based Gradient Boosting
Classifier proved to be the most accurate and resilient model. After the hyperparameter tuning
using GridSearchCV, the HistGradientBoostingClassifier exhibited enhanced performance across
all principal assessment criteria.
1. All model result

Multiple classification models were trained and evaluated on the preprocessed dataset for a
comprehensive comparison. The models include "SVM, MLPClassifier, AdaBoost,
SGDClassifier, Logistic Regression, and Histogram-based Gradient Boosting." Each model was
evaluated according to Accuracy, F1 Score, Recall, and Training Time as the primary criteria.
 Model Results
0.929
0.93 0.924 0.925
0.923 0.923 0.922
0.925 0.920.919 0.920.919
0.916 0.917 0.917
0.92 0.915 0.915
0.915 0.909 0.908
0.91
0.905 0.898
0.9
0.895
0.89
0.885
0.88
Accuracy F1 Score Recall

Support Vector Machine Multi-layer Perceptron AdaBoost

SGDClassifier Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Logistic Regression

Figure 0-3 “Machine Learning Models for Flood Prediction Comparison”

This bar chart, titled "Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Flood Prediction,"
graphically contrasts the efficacy of six distinct models: "Support Vector Machine, Multi-layer
Perceptron, AdaBoost, SGDClassifier, Histogram-based Gradient Boosting, and Logistic
Regression."
Table 4 “Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Flood Prediction”

Model Accuracy F1 Recall Training Time

Score (seconds)

Support Vector Machine 0.920 0.920 0.923 10.144

Multi-layer Perceptron 0.919 0.919 0.915 13.121

AdaBoost 0.909 0.908 0.898 1.339

SGDClassifier 0.915 0.917 0.925 0.037

Histogram-based Gradient 0.923 0.924 0.922 0.488

Boosting

Logistic Regression 0.916 0.917 0.929 0.024

.”

With a relatively short training time, the "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier"
performed the best overall out of all the models, especially for Accuracy (0.923) and F1 Score
(0.924). It was thus the most reliable option for further optimisation.
 Figure 0-4 “Performance of Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Model Before & After Tuning”

The accuracy of the "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting model" both before and after
hyperparameter change is shown in the above chart. At first, the model's accuracy was 92%. The
accuracy rose to 93% after using tuning techniques like GridSearchCV and optimising crucial
parameters, demonstrating the effectiveness of model optimisation in improving predictive
performance.
Model-wise Analysis
Support Vector Machine (SVM): Showed great classification effectiveness with a high
accuracy (0.920) and F1 Score (0.920). However, it has a somewhat long training period (10.144
seconds), which might hinder real-time implementation.
Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP): The Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) obtained a similar F1 Score
of 0.919, however it is computationally expensive for frequent usage due to its lengthy training
time of 13.121 seconds.
AdaBoost: AdaBoost showed somewhat reduced recall and accuracy measures, along with a
moderate training time. This makes it inadequate for certain flood forecast situations.
SGDClassifier: SGDClassifier demonstrated impressive performance (F1 Score: 0.917) with a
very short training time (0.037 seconds), making it suitable for lightweight applications.
Logistic Regression: Despite its simplicity, logistic regression demonstrated excellent
performance (recall: 0.929) and the fastest training time (0.024 seconds), indicating the
possibility of quick and scalable implementations.
Histogram-based Gradient Boosting: Established itself as the preeminent performer in
classification metrics and training efficiency. With an accuracy of 0.923, an F1 score of 0.924, as
well as a recall of 0.922, it demonstrated considerable dependability for accurate flood
prediction.
2. Proposed model result after hyperparameter tuning
Due to its outstanding baseline performance, the "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier"
was chosen as the preferred model for flood prediction. To improve its prediction capacity,
"GridSearchCV" was hyperparameter tuned using 5-fold cross-validation. By using these
optimal configurations, the model achieved:
 Accuracy: 0.92
 F1 Score: 0.92
 Recall: 0.92

Figure 0-4 Confusion Matrix & ROC Curve of HGB

Results confirm the model's robustness and efficacy. Despite small inconsistencies compared to
the untuned version, the performance stability as well as enhanced recall value highlight its
appropriateness for real-time flood prediction tasks, where minimising missed alerts is crucial.
Table 5 Performance of Proposed Model After Hyperparameter Tuning

Metric Value
Model Histogram-based Gradient Boosting
Accuracy 93%
Precision 0.92
Recall 0.92
F1 Score 0.92
ROC-AUC Score 0.98
Training Time (seconds) 4.67
.”
 Value
0.98
98%
97%
96%
95%
94% 0.93
93% 0.92 0.92 0.92
92%
91%
90%
89%
Accuracy Precision Recall F1 Score ROC-AUC
Score

Figure 0-5 Performance of Proposed Model After Hyperparameter Tuning

The performance of the suggested "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting model" upon

hyperparameter adjustment is shown in this chart.
In contrast to a pre-existing flood prediction system using a Logistic Regression[15], our model
demonstrated enhanced performance across all critical parameters, achieving an accuracy
improvement from 0.86 to 0.93 and a decrease in training duration from 4.67 seconds to 0.49
seconds. The ensemble-based method also yielded enhanced prediction robustness and increased
tolerance to noise and variability within the dataset.
Table 6 Comparison of Existing and Current Work

Aspect Existing Study [15] Our Study (Histogram-based

Gradient Boosting)
Accuracy 0.86 0.93
F1 Score 0.88 0.92
Recall 0.87 0.92
Training Time 4.67 seconds 0.49 seconds
Hyperparameter No Yes (GridSearchCV)
Tuning
Model Type Logistic Regression Ensemble Learning
(HistGradientBoosting)
Predictive Moderate High
Robustness
Handling Imbalance Not Specified SMOTE + PCA
.”
This comparison clearly demonstrates that our "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting model" far
surpasses the current method across all critical parameters while also decreasing computation
time.

VI. CONCLUSION

Floods are among the most catastrophic natural disasters worldwide, inflicting significant harm
on people, property, & infrastructure. Advancements in technology and the accessibility of
extensive meteorological data have positioned machine learning as a formidable instrument for
enhancing both the accuracy as well as timeliness of the flood prediction systems. The paper
analysed the integration of multiple machine learning models and data preparation techniques to
improve the detection and prediction of flood disasters.
The research demonstrates that models like the "Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier
(HistGradientBoostingClassifier)" outperform conventional techniques in accuracy, precision,
recall, and overall resilience. Pre-processing techniques such as SMOTE for addressing class
imbalance, PCA for dimensionality reduction, Yeo-Johnson power transformation, as well as
feature selection approaches substantially enhance model performance. These approaches
guarantee that the models are both precise and efficient, as well as scalable for the real-time
applications.
The study highlights that the efficiency of flood prediction by machine learning is significantly
contingent upon data quality, suitable feature engineering, and algorithm selection. The use of
these systems in practical applications necessitates ongoing validation, prompt upgrades, and
interaction with IoT as well as edge computing technologies for the real-time response. In
summary, machine learning provides a revolutionary method for flood prediction, improving
readiness and reducing disastrous impacts via immediate alerts as well as decision-making.

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