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Voting patterns and election trends in the past 2 presidential elections: an in-
depth look in the political psychology in the Philippines
Research · September 2021
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30147.58404
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Voting pattern and election trends in the past 2 presidential elections:
an in-depth look in the political psychology in the Philippines
Emmanuel Paciano M. Mabulay., MA
Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology
Polytechnic University of the Philippines
Abstract
This study looks at how and why Filipino voters' preferences have shifted between
the last two presidential elections. With such a lengthy history of voting, it will be
interesting to see if there have been any notable changes in voter behavior leading
up to the national elections in 2022. Voting preference, party affiliation, rational
choice, retrospective choice, and prospective voting are only few of the aspects
that are investigated in this study, which draws on theoretical approaches to voter
behavior including David Mayhew's idea of individual motivation.
Candidates in the Philippines often align themselves with political parties in order
to gain support for their platforms and organize their campaigns. However, Filipino
political parties are frequently characterized as short-lived coalitions or partisan
organizations. Voters have shown a tendency to consider candidates who share
their qualities or have a track record of addressing certain concerns, even if party
affiliation and pre-election polls don't ensure a candidate's eligibility or ability.
Voters, according to rational choice theory, back candidates whose policies make
sense to them. Benigno Aquino III won the 2010 election on a platform of fighting
corruption, increasing government transparency, and helping small companies
thrive. Manny Villar campaigned on a platform of revitalizing the economy and
bolstering local entrepreneurs. Angry with the current quo and hopeful that he
could give decisive leadership in combating crime, inequality, and corruption,
Filipinos voted for Rodrigo Duterte in the 2016 election.
Voters have also impacted elections in the past by looking back and considering a
candidate's track record of reliability while in office. Voters in 2010 were impressed
by Aquino's record in the House of Representatives and the Senate, whereas in
2016, they were moved by Duterte's tenure as mayor of Davao. Voters'
expectations of a candidate's future behavior and effectiveness are at the center
of prospective voting. Voters favored Villar and Duterte in part because of their
business acumen and change-making credentials, respectively.
Elections also involve elements of social and political psychology. The steady rise in
support for Duterte before the 2016 election was indicative of the bandwagon
effect, in which voters choose candidates based on popularity. Voter preferences
were heavily influenced by personalities and planned campaigns.
Finally, there have been some subtle shifts in voter behavior in the Philippines' last
two presidential elections. Voter choices have been influenced by things like party
affiliation, logical choice, looking back on past votes, and looking ahead to possible
options. In light of the upcoming presidential election in 2022, a deeper
comprehension of these phenomena will allow observers to better measure how
voters process candidates' statements and make well-informed decisions.
Introduction
Despite its colonial status for over four hundred years, the Philippines has a
relatively long electoral history under American colonial administration in the first
half of the 20th century, a considerable degree of Filipino political participation was
permitted in terms of appointment and office. elected to government
On May 9, 2022, the Philippines will hold the next national elections, the nation’s
citizens are given the power to vote for who they want to lead the nation for the
next six years.
The Philippine government is a democracy- a form of government where leaders
are voted by its people, the power to determine who will lead the country is given
to its citizens, they apply all this power to all levels of the government during the
elections, from their mayors to their president, each voter is eligible to vote only
once and has to the choice to fill up the whole ballot to its limit for possible votes
per position or to vote abstain to every position up for grabs, every citizen that fits
eligibility can sign up to vote The criteria to be eligible to vote according to the
constitution must be the following: One must be a citizen of the Philippines; one
must be at least 18 years of age (except for Sangguniang Kabataan elections); one
must have resided in the Philippines for at least one (1) year, immediately
preceding the election; one must have resided in the place where he or she
proposes to vote for at least six (6) months, immediately preceding the election;
one must not be disqualified by law.
With the current advances in the technology together with the upcoming elections
this paper wanted to identify if the voter’s behavior changed significantly though
the past 2 presidential elections.
Theoretical approaches to voter’s behavior
This study is rooted in the idea of David Mayhew (1974) who provides a simple
illustration in which he found that individual motivation could tell a lot about how
members behaved and even about types of policy actions audience they could
produce. from this theory, a conclusion can be drawn by proving or disproving the
above theory.
Voting Preference and voting behavior
Voting preference is a dimension of voting behavior that refers to what makes
people prefer one party or candidate over other parties and candidates (Roskin et
al., 1997). Therefore, the basic factors influencing voters' decisions are the
biological nature of voters and their needs, their psychological characteristics, their
membership in social groups and the communications they receive (Ranney, 1999).
(Cutler; 2002) explained that many voters tend to believe that candidates and party
leaders who share the characteristics of a voter are more likely to act in that
person's interest when in office.
Party Identification
Party line voting describes consistently voting for candidates of the same political
party at all levels of government. (Elliott, 2018). And Party affiliation played a huge
role in the Philippine politics, most of the candidates who run for a position affiliate
themselves in a political party that will help them advance their causes and build
their campaigns. ideally, these parties should align with the candidates’ ideologies
so that the proper programs and platforms are created for the electorate.
In addition, political parties should include proper selection of candidates and
leadership training for them, as well as setting an agenda and awakening interest
among people, but according to Aceron (2019) that political parties in the
Philippines can best be described as "temporary political alliances while it is more
of a fan club of politicians. But in terms of people voting based on their
identification with the party. But on the study of Batara, Labadan and Roa (2021)
where they examined the factors influencing the voting preferences of young
people in the Philippines, they argued that party affiliation and status in pre-
election polls when voting does not guarantee a candidate's eligibility in an election
, nor guarantee competence and skill in the performance of the duties and
functions
Rational Choice
Elliott (2018) defined on her article that rational choice theory is someone voting
in their best interest, supporting the candidate whose platform will give them the
most favorable outcomes, the 2010 election outcome, Benigno Aquino III won in a
clear and wide margin against his opponents at this time, building on the anti-
corruption, transparency and good governance platform plans to lead the
government for the next 6 years (Mogato & Mair, 2010). In addition Manny Villar,
one of the presidentiables got a total percentage vote of 15.42%, with a platform
to revive the economy by supporting local small businesses and opening up the
strained domestic financial sector to greater competition (Montlake, 2010) but that
did not bring voters to his side, with Aquino's goodwill generated by the surname's
reputation for decorum (Mogato & Mair, 2010).
While the 2016 presidential election was different from the previous, with
Duterte's term in office stems from Filipinos' collective anger at the status quo, but
also from their unwavering belief that, as a catalyst for change, Duterte can provide
decisive leadership to tackle crime, inequality, and corruption, which become his
selling point to the Filipino voters that time and against his opponents in that time.
With convincing margin Rodrigo Duterte’s victory in the election (Arugay, 2016)
which proved that Filipino voters also take into consideration what a candidate can
give them a most favorable outcomes especially to the candidates’ hometown
where they won with an exceptional margin which can be clearly observed on the
past elections.
Retrospective Choice of Voting
Where voters decide to choose their candidate based on their consistent record in
office (Elliott, 2018), in which became also a basis for voters to choose their
president in the past two presidential elections. Whereas with Ninoy Aquino III’s
accomplishments date back to his early days as a congressman in Tarlac from 1998
to 2007 focusing on the fiscal role of lawmakers during his nine years in the lower
house and before winning the presidential election in 2010, he became a senator
and chaired the Local Government Committee of the Senate, and also became
deputy chairman of the Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
While on the other hand convincing margin Rodrigo Duterte’s victory in the
presidential election are backed with a sole issue which is fighting criminality,
backed by a record of previous performance to address this concern as mayor of
Davao. According to the Commission's Election Report, turnout in the 2016
elections was over 80%, a higher percentage than in previous elections. (Holmes,
2016). The trend greatly changed in the past 6 years after Aquino’s term to Duterte
with his known performance in the city of Davao that is very different from the
image of the previous presidents of the Philippines that swept the majority of
voters into electing him, showing that voters are also taking into consideration the
previous track record and accomplishments of the candidates before electing them
to office, a clear sign of retrospective voting at work
Prospective voting
In addition Elliott (2018) also defined prospective voting as how a citizen thinks of
a candidate will act and perform if elected in the office, this phenomena was clearly
observed on those who voted for Manny Villar in 2010, where his background in
business, he aimed for to foster the economy and to seed homegrown businesses
that can generate jobs, in addition he invested on his image of “rags-to-riches”
story, (Montlake, 2010) in which he hopes he can related to the masses that he is
trying to get their votes. While on 2016 election is a different story, where
personality become one of the forefront to winning the elections, with Duterte
represented the Antithesis of Aquino and the political elegance that had lengthy
ruled Philippine politics (Arugay, 2016) in which is something new to the masses on
that time, on the other hand one notable political opponent of duterte in that time,
Manuel Roxas II, the political candidate of the incumbent administration, with
inconceivable advantages Arugay (2016) argued that his poor performance as a
member of the government cabinet and his inability to show effective leadership,
a criticism that was contrary which alienated him from voters.
Social Psychology and Political Psychology at play
Most of the time Bandwagon effect can also come into play every elections with
people choosing who to vote based on the candidate that is most being talked at
during the period of campaign especially in the 2016 election where Arugay (2016)
cited on the data of SWS in the 2016 elections that since December of 2015 leading
may election of the following year, it can be clearly seen the steady increase of
candidate support of Rodrigo Duterte while Until the last few weeks before the
elections, the frontrunner in election polls was incumbent Senator Grace Poe and
Vice President Jejomar Binay, can be clearly seen a steady drop, with dissatisfaction
with an ineffective government set a more piercing and resonant tone for most.
Aquino’s amazing trust ratings must be put into the context that his immediate
predecessors were disgraced, incarcerated, and/or convicted of plunder (Hegina,
2016), while duterte’s campaign at that time was impressive because he slowly
gained the support of the vote through what, based on interviews with key
informants, was a strategic campaign. (Arugay 2016), Unlike other candidates,
whose messages were quite abstract, Duterte repeatedly emphasized one
problem: crime in general and the pervasiveness of illicit drugs in particular,
his campaign carried the message that “change is coming.” This abstract promise
was complemented by the slogan tapang at malasakit (courage and
compassion)(Nawal, Manlupig & Gonzales 2015). This simple and orthodoxic
approach of delivery of message and anti-crime plans resonated because it was
supported by his undisputed record of performance in addressing such a concern
crated a buzz and noise in the general population in which boost the support in his
presidential bid.
Conclusions
The 2010 and 2016 presidential election had many of the same characteristics as
the previous ones. Personalities dominated. A variety of strategies have been used
to support the candidate's positive characteristics and to deflect negative aspects
that could lead to the loss of voter support. Voter’s behavior slightly changed
together with their preference of how a candidate presents himself and it can be
clearly seen in the 2016 elections where Duterte’s orthodoxic approach swayed the
voters into choosing him, party identification cannot be applied to the current
Philippine electoral system for it’s a temporary alliance and can be considered as
fan-club for politicians and it depends on where the party and its members stand
on the current issues that the country needs to adders hence its temporary, while
rational choice and prospective voting was clearly present in the past 2 presidential
elections which became one of the key factors in winning and swaying people to
vote a candidate in the elections, this also talks the same with Retrospective choice
of voting where Duterte and his campaign team heavily invested in during the 2016
election in which helped him winning the said polls.
With the ongoing election season and on-going campaign for the 2022 presidential
election the 4 phenomena are now clearly can be seen and felt again but this will
all depend on how people will perceive a candidate’s message in order to persuade
them into voting the right candidate based on their choice and preference.
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