Generative AI's Economic Impact in Norway
Generative AI's Economic Impact in Norway
potential of
Generative AI
in Norway
The next productivity frontier
June 2023
Generative AI (GenAI) enables the creation of new Although some areas are unsuited for GenAI, several
unstructured content, such as text, images, etc. applications emerge2:
Recent GenAI efforts are powered by Foundational Code/image/audio/video/text generation and editing,
Models trained on a broad set of data that enables while taking surrounding context into account
them to respond to a wide range of prompts.
Conversational interfaces to convert natural language
These models are typically also better at interpreting /
dialog into specific executions of a technical system
labelling unstructured data than traditional AI
Querying a large set of unstructured data, and
synthesizing a human readable output
High-stakes scenarios with potential for harm
Unconstrained, long, open-ended generation that may
expose harmful or biased content to users
Generate marketing or Automate code generation
social media copy in ”house in programming languages Applications requiring explainability and/or full
style” using ChatGPT, like Python with Codex / understanding of potential failure modes, including
Copy.A, etc. Github Copilot, etc.
numerical reasoning1
1. Current topic of research: how to use GPT-like models to generate code that involves solving numerical problems
2. Additional resources can be found in the McKinsey Report “Economic potential of generative AI”, and the article “What every CEO should know about generative AI”
leading to
reinvention of major
processes in Norway
and rest of world Augmentation
A GenAI-chatbot is already in use in several
large Norwegian banks, and institutions, to
improve productivity and reduce use of
Enhance human productivity to do human agents in more simple cases
Automation adoption, generative AI early scenario1, % automation Automation adoption, generative AI late scenario1, % automation
100% 100%
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
0% 0%
2025 30 35 40 45 50 55 2060 2030 40 50 60 70 80 2090
1. Early scenario - aggressive scenario all key model parameters (tech automation, integration timeline, economic feasibility, regulatory and public adoption); late scenario - parameters are set for the later adoption potential
2. McKinsey Norway estimate
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; European Commission; press search; Eurostat McKinsey & Company 7
X % of GDP Value realized by 2030
Value realized by 2045
Value potential per industry2, bn NOK
Energy3 16-26 0.4 %
High tech4 12-24 0.3 %
Travel, transport & logistics 13-21 0.3 %
1. Based on the early adoption scenario, median expected impact of GenAI, % Agriculture <1 0.0 %
of industry revenues. 2020 revenues, inflation adjusted
2. By 2030, ~60% of the value potential will be unlocked, by 2045 100% of Pharma & medical products <1 0.0 %
the value will be unlocked. Calculations based on 2020 industry revenues
3. Includes utilities and oil and gas, of which oil and gas contributes
~85% of revenues
4. Includes advanced electronics Total 95-159 2.4%
5. Includes automotive and assembly, and aerospace and defense
0,7 0,8
0.2 0,6
0.1
0.1
1972-82 1982-92 1992-2002 2002-2012 2012-2022 Early scenario Late scenario Early scenario Late scenario
Source: The Conference Board Total Economy database; Oxford Economics; McKinsey Global Institute QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey 10
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Key activities forecasted to be affected are typically executed by
employees holding an advanced degree
With generative AI
Without generative AI1
Incremental technical
automation potential
Overall technical automation potential, Share of NO
Education level Comparison in midpoint scenarios, % in 2023 work force1, % Comments
1. Does not sum up to 100% due to some minor educational levels not included
2. 2014 statistic
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; SSB; OECD; Scientific American article “Scientists Reading Fewer Papers for First Time in 35 Years”, 2014 McKinsey & Company 11
GenAI could have the biggest impact on activities which previously
had a lower potential for automation
Automation potential of more than 50% with GenAI With GenAI
Incremental technical Automation potential of more than 50% without GenAI Without GenAI1
automation potential with GenAI
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Midpoint 2017
50%
50%
Midpoint
40% updated
The advent of GenAI has sped up
30% the automation timeline by ~10
years from previous estimates in
20% which GenAI was not considered
10%
0%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
1. Includes data from 47 countries representing about 80% of employment across the world. 2017 estimates are based on the activity and occupation mix from 2016. Scenarios including generative AI are based on the 2021
activity and occupation mix
2. Early scenario: aggressive scenario for all key model parameters (technical automation potential, integration timelines, economic feasibility, and technology diffusion rates)
3. Late scenario: parameters are set for later adoption potential.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute McKinsey & Company 16
GenAI is expected to have different impact across the business
functions dependent on industry sizes
Generative AI productivity impact by business functions1, % of industry revenue
Impact in bn NOK Low High Impact as % of industry rev. Low High Low High
Source: Internal experts; McKinsey Global Institute; annual reports; SSB McKinsey & Company 17
GenAI can reduce the cost of large effort tasks, enabled through
4 archetype of applications which are emerging across industries
Not exhaustive for all use cases for Generative AI
Use case Summarize text or audio and Generate code and assist Generate visuals (images, Streamline customer
generate insights developers designs, 3D models) to communications, e.g.,
Perform actions triggered by Refactor translate code to accelerate the product design customer service issue
user prompt accelerate mainframe process resolution (driving action to
migration Draft and personalize resolve) and Q&A
Augment capabilities of
operations staff (e.g., Create model outbound customer comms Model and predict elements
inventory/maintenance documentation (e.g., risk) or marketing in patient or customer journey
management)
22
highest value 20
Energy
most disruptive 14
Retail
in High Tech 12
10 Advanced Manufacturing
Source: McKinsey
Internal experts,
GlobalDatabases:
Institute Annual reports, SSB McKinsey & Company 19
>50% of the value unlock can be achieved in two large
business functions
Deep dive follows
Software engineering 21 - 43
Customer operations 12 - 17
Analysis 25
Key CPG
industries Retail Other admin 13
Travel, Transport & Logistics
Insurance Total
Financial services
Total value
potential, bn NOK 28 - 43
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; internal experts; press search McKinsey & Company 21
“50% of code on
GitHub is written by an
Emails 10
Key High Tech
industries Media Admin 10
CPG
Retail Total
Energy
Insurance
Financial services Total value
potential, bn NOK 21 - 43
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; internal experts McKinsey & Company 22
3: Customer Operations Productivity opportunity with GenAI
Not expected to be affected by GenAI
Illustrative
Email / chat 6
Key CPG
industries Retail
Other 3
Insurance
Financial services
Total
Travel, Transport & Logistics
Telecommunications
Total value
potential, bn NOK 12 - 17
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; internal experts; press search McKinsey & Company 23
4: Supply Chain & Operations Productivity opportunity with GenAI
Not expected to be affected by GenAI
Illustrative
Document review 10
Key Energy
industries CPG
Other admin 5
Retail
Advanced Manufacturing
Total
Travel, Transport & Logistics
Basic Materials
Total value
potential, bn NOK 10 - 19
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; internal experts; press search McKinsey & Company 24
“The amount of time spent in each category depends on
which stage of development you are, but most time is spent
on product development, troubleshooting or fixing”
Fixing 17
Meetings 25
Key High tech
industries CPG
Other admin 15
Retail
Travel, Transport & Logistics
Total
Telecommunications
Insurance
Financial services Total value
potential, bn NOK 8 - 15
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; internal experts McKinsey & Company 25
6: Risk & Legal Productivity opportunity with GenAI
Not expected to be affected by GenAI
Illustrative
Meetings 5
Key Energy
industries High Tech
Other admin 6
Media
Insurance
Total
Financial services
Real Estate
Telecommunications Total value
potential, bn NOK 7-9
Source: McKinsey Global Institute; internal experts; press search McKinsey & Company 26