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Sustainable road transport from the energy and modern society points of view: Perspectives for the
automotive industry and production

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Sustainable road transport from the energy and modern society points of view: Perspectives for the automotive industry
and production / DALLA CHIARA, Bruno; Pellicelli, M.. - In: JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION. - ISSN 0959-6526.
- STAMPA. - 133:I(2016), pp. 1283-1301. [10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.015]

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Accepted Manuscript

Sustainable road transport from the energy and modern society points of view:
Perspectives for the automotive industry and production

B. Dalla Chiara, M. Pellicelli

PII: S0959-6526(16)30683-7
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.015
Reference: JCLP 7386

To appear in: Journal of Cleaner Production

Received Date: 10 November 2015

Revised Date: 4 May 2016
Accepted Date: 1 June 2016

Please cite this article as: Chiara BD, Pellicelli M, Sustainable road transport from the energy and
modern society points of view: Perspectives for the automotive industry and production, Journal of
Cleaner Production (2016), doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.015.

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 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

Role and relevance of sustainability in road transport

Role of used energy in the context of sustainability and the consequent

emissions

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Impact of sustainability concepts on the automotive industry:

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solutions proposed in literature

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Recent trends in demand and transport policies concerning energy in the

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automotive field

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Impact of the transport systems in general and of the automotive field on

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energy usage: evolution

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Energy usage in the road transport sector

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Need for a comprehensive analysis based on overall energy consumption:
the WTW index
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Potential energy migrations, with the role of the occupancy of vehicles

Transport and industrial policy towards differentiated fuels: hybrid plug-in

solutions for automotive production together with “mobility as a service”
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Sustainable road transport from the energy and modern society points
of view: perspectives for the automotive industry and production

B. Dalla Chiaraa,∗, M. Pellicellib

a
POLITECNICO DI TORINO, Engineering, Department DIATI, Transport systems, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129
Torino, Italy
b
UNIVERSITY OF PAVIA, Department of Economics and Management, Via San Felice 5, 27100 Pavia, Italy

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Abstract

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This paper attempts to provide an overall analysis of the most recent, relevant and
consolidated issues of sustainable transport with the aim of indicating a specific perspective in
the automotive field for a defensible production of an acceptable product, which would be

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able to satisfy the modern aspirations of the industrialised society.
A broad framing of the role of sustainability in transport systems as well its impact on the
automotive industry are presented first, focusing in particular on the energy consumption of

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road vehicles; the impact of transportation on energy use and the weight of energy
consumption on the operational costs of the different transport modes are dealt with, together
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with the evolution of this consumption.
These elements are essential for a clearer understanding of where and how much energy
efficiency and the related emerging technologies can have an impact on road transport, mainly
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in the automotive field; furthermore, they provide the grounds for some overall considerations
on the energy demand for transport. The environmental impact is implicitly a consequence of
choices in the use of energy.
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Technical and economic solutions for a transport system that complies with the energy supply
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i.e. automotive production and the expected availability of the main used sources, and for its
sustainability can thereafter be analysed: quantitative analyses, such as the well-to-wheel
method, and the energy related to the actual occupancy of vehicles, are also taken into
account, before some main technological perspectives are proposed for automobiles, which
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the authors consider to be winning, from a strategic viewpoint, and which should be closely
coupled to industrial choices in the most technologically advanced countries in the world.
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Keywords: Road transport systems; energy efficiency; sustainable motorised mobility; well-
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to-wheel analysis; automotive industry; production.

∗
Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 011 0905621; fax +39 011 0905699.
E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Dalla Chiara).
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1. The key factors of sustainability in the land-based transport system

For the last few years, road transport has become burdened by a number of issues related to
sustainability, namely by the kind of energy that is used, the consequent emissions and
connected points of view of modern society. With this paper the authors would like to provide
some perspectives to the automotive industry and its related production by suggesting goals
for transport policy makers and the public at large. This wide analysis has been faced
according to the steps outlined in Fig. 1.

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Fig. 1. The main steps of this analysis: from sustainability of road transport to a policy concerning the
automotive production, passing through the energy usage
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The almost continuous growth of road circulating vehicles, of infrastructures and of personal
motorised mobility – which has significantly marked the second half of the last century in the
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United States, Japan and in Europe – has been showing some conditionings or constraints for
a number of years; these have strengthened and made the concept of what is nowadays called
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“sustainable transport” or “sustainable motorised mobility” to be felt more by modern society,

as not-motorised mobility is implicitly sustainable inasmuch as people have the ability to
move. These conditioning elements can be summarised as follows:

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1) Saturation of the land, in the meaning of both infrastructures constructed throughout the
territory and of vehicles using these infrastructures; a profound awareness of such an
issue already surfaced in the nineteen eighties with the consequent spreading of
environmental impact assessments and similar analyses in the nineties.
2) Concerns arising from the impending and inevitable lack of energy resource, and of black
oil in particular, at least at widely accessible prices, of which approximately half of the
extraction is absorbed by transport systems throughout the world and on which they
depend for at least 96% in European countries and nearly 93% in the US in terms of t.o.e.

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(tons of oil equivalent), to mention just some of the relevant industrial areas.
3) The release of gases and materials, derived from the combustion of combustibles obtained
from black-oil, into the environment, with the subsequent atmospheric pollution, health

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issues and possible climate changes, which have resulted in global commitments being
taken worldwide, and in particular in the aforementioned industrialised areas, together
with continental standards on car-engine emissions.

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4) The need to physically and functionally maintain as well as technologically update the
existing transport infrastructures, here intended as their economic sustainability during
their whole life cycle (their maintenance and technological upgrading): The property of a

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country increases with the development of new infrastructures as well as with the
upgrading of the existing network; neglecting an infrastructure may imply its loss of
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attractiveness and of value, while it continues to be the responsibility of the State from the
moment a decision was made concerning its realisation.
5) The increase in safe mobility, which is a binding road transport objective of the EU as
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well as of the USA and Japan and which – as intended as a reduction in road accidents in
particular, in absolute terms and not as a rate - results to be incompliant with the growth
of motorised mobility, even though the incidence of accidents due to additional road
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traffic was limited, possibly due to assisted driving and ITS, and in the future possibly to
the use of autonomous automobiles.
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6) A natural limit in the increase of long-range relationships between people, a possibly

ethic objective with which the continuous growth of motorised mobility may become
incompliant with local relationships, with one owns’ family and with the regular
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development of on-site working activities. This increase in mobility was welcome in the
past because of the growth in relationships beyond the reference housing context; since
roughly the beginning of the new century, bidirectional communication without mobility
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has emerged and conquered a relevant part of modern society (internet, smart phones,
teleconferences and the like, and possibly one day tele-presence), and has sometimes
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substituted communication associated with movement, i.e. effective and not virtual
transport.

Given this entire recent burden on the automotive industry, it is reasonable to ask: how can
today’s industrial production still satisfy the transportation needs of modern society without
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losing the market in favour of motionless communications and, at the same time, overcoming
the modern constraints related to sustainability? An attempt will first be made to understand
the impact of modern constraints, generated by a more diffused green oriented consensus, on
sustainability in the automotive industry, from the literature viewpoint, within the business
and management context, in order to face the technical and technological aspects; a proposal
for a cleaner production of an up-to-date product will then be made.

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2. The impact of sustainability on the automotive industry

During the 1980s and ‘90s, some serious international environmental problems, such as a

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reduction in the ozone layer and climate changes, began to stimulate greater attention towards
the concept of ‘sustainable growth’. The modern concepts of sustainability began to take
shape during the 1990s. Recent years have witnessed a proliferation in business and

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management literature, and even an explosion in international literature, of publications in
which sustainability is the main theme and in which it is used to describe problems related to
technology, economic development and managerial approaches in various areas such as

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‘sustainable technology’, ‘sustainable economics’, ‘sustainable business’ and certainly
sustainable transport. Thus, in order to progress towards ensuring a sustainable economy and
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production, various key areas have been explored. In particular the environmental effects and
the consequences on nature of an unconstrained economic growth, along with the prospects of
economic activity that takes greater account of the social and environmental consequences of
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market behaviour, have been analysed (Lovins et al., 2007). The concept of sustainability is
often associated with the term social innovation. In this context, the institutions and the
governance at a regional and local level play fundamental roles in promoting sustainable
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growth.
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The transport context is influenced by sustainability at two levels: from the macro-operational
point of view of the vehicles and personal mobility, as synthesised in the previous section,
and from the micro-industrial one.
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Car makers have become more involved in social and environmental issues within the
community over the last two decades indicatively: they are market players who operate within
a variety of relationships with economic, political and social parties; they are subject to the
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constraints of international organisations and local governments and to the pressure of civil
society; they have to comply with laws and to take into account ethical values in full respect
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of the individuals, the community and the environment. In this network of interconnections,
car makers are inevitably social and political actors who are called upon, by governments and
other stakeholders to be cost-effective, and socially and environmentally responsible, and
have even been pushed or self-oriented in recent years to publish Sustainability Reports.
Nowadays, this all constitutes a large burden, which risks making automotive production
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unbearable in some cases, unless government subsidies are provided or worldwide economies
of scale are pursued. However, a technological solution has to be found, otherwise it will be
necessary to renounce mobility and logistics or to give up the production of modern vehicles
that are able to satisfy such constraints, and this in itself would represent losing behaviour,
like hearing a policy maker or a private citizen say: “I’m going to give up my car and move
by bicycle, on foot, by public or shared transport (i.e. I interpret mobility as a service)
because cars are no longer environmental friendly or economically competitive”.

It is necessary to be aware of the fact that the automotive sector has always been characterised

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by expensive product features that lead the firms to require extremely large initial capital
investments and to achieve economies of scale1. It is also necessary to be aware of the fact
that the automotive industry has nearly always benefited – in a more or less evident way –

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from governmental financial sustainment, especially when a new concept of vehicle has been
proposed. However, car makers are “prisoners of enormous sunk costs which they treat as

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unamortized assets” … “This mind-set is a critical obstacle” (Lovins, 1993). The advantages
for these companies originate from the increase in the production scales, together with the
complexity of both the products and the manufacturing systems. However, the risk of failing

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is high, and this is why both product and process technologies are often developed
incrementally. Nevertheless, if the innovation is successful, the impact can be significant in
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terms of revenues. Finally, the recession witnessed in these last few years has weakened
multinational automotive companies that operate on traditional markets, with particular
reference to Europe. The strategies that have prevailingly been adopted by the most important
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business groups have involved a contraction of the traditional markets and development of
high growth rate ones. European automobile companies in particular, as a result of the
economic crisis2, which involved the Euro area countries to a great extent, and with the aim of
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containing the loss of market shares, have been forced to sell at competitive prices, compared
to the past. In general, they rationalised their activities by adopting actions aimed at
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containing costs - most of which were introduced because of environmental constraints, such
as those pertaining to the Euro 1 up to the Euro 6 engines – by introducing lay-offs and
disinvestments of entire production lines in order to satisfy the new pollution constraints. The
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search for profitability and development opportunities on other markets has forced these
companies to aggregate and search for strategic alliances, thus making the global automotive
market a high-concentration one, with significant barriers to new competitors. In some
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countries, such as India, the market demand has called for adaptations of the product to the
local market. Nevertheless, the general trend of car makers has been to search for scale
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economy and product standardisation for large-volume sales and to limit the costs generated

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“This constitutes a trap as each competitor has to sell a large number of vehicles in order to reach a break-even-point”
(Zapata et al, 2010).
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“Crisis” is here used with reference to one of its etymologies: “crisis” as that of “cross”, with “choice” being the Greek root
of the term.
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by the introduction of adaptations by producing in different geographic areas. This has led to
economies of scale for internal combustion engines, that is, those that were chosen
approximately one century ago, in spite of the existence and efficiency of electric motors, ?a
scale (economy) difficulty reachable in a few years with alternative motors.

In spite of all this, new demands are pushing the automotive market towards a change.
The stakeholders, and governments in particular, the local communities and the consumers are
requesting more attention towards energy efficiency, as well as partial independence from
black-oil, with consequent decreases in pollution and increases in safety and quality, which

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translate, for instance, into reliability of the vehicle, infotainment and in general into an
economic, social and environmental impact by car makers. The limited margin of investment
forces them towards the conquest of high volumes of production and even to strive to reach a

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leadership position, irrespective of the laws, in order to obtain economies of scale, thus
risking the company’s credibility and the market share itself.

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The move towards change has therefore become highly pressing and sometimes vital for
these companies. As is the case of other industries, automotive companies are also called
upon to increase their internal sustainable value3. This issue is becoming particularly

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significant and strategically relevant for car makers4. The recent evolution in the role of
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multinational companies has led to the recognition of a social and environmental aspect of
their activities, which obliges them to seek sustainable growth5 (Labuschagne et al, 2005) and
innovation as conditions for success in the medium-long term. Thus, the above factors
become strategically significant, and the adoption of socially responsible practices represents
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the way towards long-term profits and solid foundations6. The economic crisis and its social
consequences have shaken the trust of consumers; greater attention has subsequently been
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requested from companies towards social and ethical aspects (EC, 25/10/2011; Christensen,
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In the Communication from the Commission of the European Communities on the European Union Strategy for Sustainable
Development (EC, 15/5/2001), the Commission invited all publicly-quoted companies with at least 500 members of staff to
publish a “triple bottom line” in their annual reports to shareholders that measures their performance against economic,
environmental and social criteria.
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The developed product has special features: cars can be a cause of excessive pollution, road accidents, stress and the like,
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thus damaging both the personal interests of the individuals and the general collectivity.
5
As defined by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), the “Brundtland Commission” (1987):
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs”.
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“When looked at strategically, corporate social responsibility can become a source of tremendous social progress, as the
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business applies its considerable resources, expertise and insights to activities that benefit society” (Porter and Kramer,
2006). “Companies must take the lead in bringing business and society back together.” … “The solution lies in the principle
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of shared value, which involves creating economic value in a way that also creates value for society by addressing its needs
and challenges. Businesses must reconnect company success to social progress.” (Porter and Kramer, 2011). The attention of
stakeholders is also requested when the objective of the enterprise is the creation of value for its own shareholders and is
oriented towards value-based management (Copeland et al, 2000, Cornelius, Davies, 1997; Pellicelli, 2007). As the EU
Commission also underlines: “ ... enterprises should have in place a process to integrate social, environmental, ethical, human
rights and consumer concerns in their business operations and core strategy in close collaboration with their stakeholders,
with the aim of: maximising the creation of a shared value for their owners/shareholders and for their other stakeholders and
society at large.” (EC, 25/10/2011).
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2011). Certainly, decision making in the energy and environmental management fields
includes the application of tools to support decision making on environmental strategies and
operations (Lai et al, 2008), tools such as: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Cumulative Energy
Requirement Analysis (CERA), Material Flow Accounting (MFA), Total Cost Accounting
Analysis (TCA) and Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA). The results and corporate
sustainability should also be controlled by means of sustainability indicators (according to
Triple Bottom Line and GRI guidelines) and sustainable production indicators (Veleva and
Ellenbecker, 2001).

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In the last few years, both the USA and European governments have been fostering –
through allocations of funds for research and financing to enterprises - the search for clean air
solutions and – behind this, being an economic issue for the balance of payments of entire

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nations - alternatives to black-oil as a source of energy for vehicles, as well as innovative
technological solutions. For example, according to EU Directive 2009/33/EC and subsequent

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adaptations, European car makers are called upon to provide future mobility solutions in an
extremely competitive global environment, and therefore to spread the adoption of green cars
and heavy-duty vehicles as well as of systems that contribute towards improving road safety

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and fight pollution (such as Intelligent Transport Systems - ITS).
In this context, the development of innovation also becomes a strategic factor to achieve
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sustainability and social consensus. Already in the nineteen seventies, Ansoff suggested
trying to acquire new technologies as they surfaced or, as an alternative, leaving the market
and shifting resources from old technologies to new ones as soon as an opportunity of
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marketing the new products arose (Ansoff, 1965). Usually, once a technological innovation
passes the initial market phase, it may/can generate significant competitive advantages for the
company that introduces it. This translates into a greater capacity to diversify than the
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competitors (Porter, 2008a; Porter 2008b). Markides and Geroski (2005) highlighted to what
extent radical innovations (i.e. those that have an important effect on both the behaviour of the
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consumers and the competitors) can generate a new market by influencing the consumers and
revolutionising the existing business patterns.
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In the automotive industry, companies innovate in order to satisfy the consumers’ demand, to
increase their market share and profits as well as to compete on the global market (Lin and
Lu, 2006). Generally, pushing eco-innovations onto the market, when consumers presumably
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do not dare, are not interested in or do not want to buy this genre of innovative products, may
even result in a losing strategy for the manufacturers. If the stimulus to adopt innovation
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instead stems from the consumers’ needs, and manufacturers develop technologies
accordingly, innovations might be adopted quickly (Zhang et al., 2011).

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3. Methods: the sustainability of the transport system in automotive literature

Up to the end of the last century, none of the elements that influenced the almost continuous
increase in motorised mobility were as significant as they are today, since they affect - at its
very base - the current sustainability of the transport system as a whole, including automotive
development in most developed countries. This paper is addressed to an analysis of the users’
and society’s requirements – the demand - with respect to alternative cleaner and sustainable
industrial solutions pertaining to past and present motorised mobility, which might be electric

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or hybrid vehicles, and to the indirect analysis of the emissions; the latter usually considers an
overall energy analysis (here intended from the source) as of less importance or even ignores
it, though energy stays earlier in the process and on which we rely our man attention. These

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aspects have already been addressed in literature, in particular over the last twelve years.
Starting from alternative solutions to internal combustion engines, in order to address the
energy and environmental issues of sustainability, which are generally exhibited through

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electric traction, Graham-Rowe et al., 2012, reported a qualitative analysis of the responses to
the demand for electric cars or plug-in hybrid cars, based on semi-structured interviews
conducted with 40 non-commercial drivers in the UK. The results highlight the potential

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barriers to the adoption of current-generation (2010) plug-in electric cars by mainstream
consumers. Years before, Chéron, E., Zins (1997) analysed the buyers’ purchasing intentions
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towards electric vehicles and pointed out the constraints.
Vance and Hedel, 2007, in a study which had the aim of contributing to this line of inquiry,
estimated econometric models on a panel of travel-diary data collected in Germany between
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1996 and 2003, focusing on individual automobile journeys. The authors employed the two-
part model (2PM), a procedure that involves a probit model and OLS estimators, to assess the
determinants of the discrete decision to use a car and the continuous decision of distance
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travelled. Unlike much of the work to date, the results suggest the urban form has a causative
impact on car use, a finding that is robust to alternative econometric specifications. In fact,
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these results need to be considered here because of their relations with the compliancy of
frequent and short daily trips in urban contexts with the autonomy of electric batteries,
without changing the behaviour of nearly ¾ of the European population, which lives in
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metropolitan areas so carries out for most of the week journeys of 10-20 km.
The paper by Kim and Ulfarsson (2008) reports a transportation modal choice for short home-
based trips, using a 1999 activity survey from the Puget Sound region of Washington State,
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U.S.A, and it claims that an environment that attracts the interest of people and provides
activity opportunities also encourages people to walk short trips or - as authors we add - to
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use vehicles whose autonomy and recharging possibilities are compliant with such distances,
again particularly electric ones. This aspect shall be addressed later on in the present paper.
Influencing the choice of the transport mode of people on short trips should be an important
part of the efforts that are necessary to encourage the use of non-automobile alternatives, such
as metros, surface public transport or electric traction. The paper by Scheiner and Holz-Rau,
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2013 examines changes in travel modes after residential relocations using structural equation
modelling. The findings show that relocations and the associated changes in the built
environment induce significant changes in car ownership and in the travel mode, and may
thus be regarded as key events in an individual's mobility biography.
Schwanen et al, 2011 focused their research on climate change mitigation in transport systems
and related land vehicles: the analysis points out that ecological modernisation and neo-liberal
govern-mentality in general provide the context for the current focus on and belief in
technological, behaviour change and especially market-based mitigation strategies; this is an

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input that will here be used later on when referring to industrial choices.
The paper by Te Brömmelstroet and Bertolini, 2010, analysed the central position of the
integrated automotive Use and Transport (LUT) strategy development in establishing more

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efficient and sustainable urban environments, and it introduced the concept of 'knowledge
generation' as a potentially useful mechanism to close the gap between support tools and
planning practice: these results have proved useful for the authors of the present paper to

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assign the most suitable transport modes and new concept of automobiles, in terms of
sustainability (traffic, energy, environment, safety) and of the appropriate distances.
An analysis of the rapid development of motorisation in Asian cities, in terms of urban

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transport infrastructure, spatial development and travel behaviour, was made by (Kitamura
and Mohamad, 2009) from another point of view, that is, of the most quickly evolving
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countries, considering diffused personal motorised mobility.
The paper by Frondel et al., 2011, critically assesses EU legislation, with reference to its
economic and technological underpinnings: the need to more accurately reflect the industry’s
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technological status quo is outlined, and alternative targets are proposed which seem to be
related to the subsequent proposals in this paper.
The paper by Wells et al., 2013, analyses the issue of whether governmental regulation results
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in higher producer costs, which then result in higher prices for the consumer. They conducted
a longitudinal study of the European automotive market and dealt with features related to
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energy use and, above all to the emissions of vehicles with alternative traction or propulsion.
They concluded that regulators need a better understanding of what the ‘cost of regulation’
entails over the longer term. This suggestion has been considered relevant in the present paper
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for dealing with governmental policies on energy, which have been related to that of subsidies
to more oil independent transport modes in order to pursue energy independence, at least in
those countries that want to reduce their economic reliance on other countries that extract
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black-oil.
Mathez et al., 2013, have focused on the city of Montreal, which has invested large amounts
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in alternative transportation systems, and have considered the recent initiatives to significantly
reduce the consequences of the use of black-oil derived fuels, by containing the overall
greenhouse (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. The paper presents a methodology
that was developed to estimate the GHG emissions generated by commuters; this

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methodology is linked to a multimodal approach which reserves to metropolitan trips by
means of the electric traction, no matter where it is used (on public or private vehicles).
The paper by van Ristell et al., 2013, examines the traffic and environmental impacts of the
school choice policy in England and analyses whether the reduction in vehicle miles travelled
could lead to less congestion on the roads during the morning rush hour and fewer cars
driving near school gates, besides – for this paper - allowing a greater usability of private
vehicles with limited autonomy, such as electric ones.
The effect of the London congestion charge on road casualties was analysed by Noland, et al.,

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2008: an intervention analysis was conducted to investigate the effect of the congestion
charge on traffic casualties for motorists, pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists, both within
the charging zone and in areas of London outside the zone. We use this with a critic: we

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intend to address rather an urban policy based on engines and motors, therefore on pollution
rather than on congestion, being energy and environment much more interesting when
considering cleaner industrial policies.

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Looking back to the bases of ITS, as a support for the energy efficiency issue and related
dependency on black-oil, when using electric traction for private mobility and multimodal
transport, Kanninen, 1996, in what was likely one of the first analyses in the field, discussed

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the congestion relief and environmental impacts that could be expected from Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS), on the basis of a qualitative assessment of the generated
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incentives. He argued that although ITS is intended to improve system efficiency, the
technology could in fact exacerbate the already existing, economic inefficiencies in the
surface transportation system and that policies to correct these inefficiencies could become all
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the more crucial if the implementation of ITS is considered. Several policies that target
environmental externalities were discussed as possible complements to ITS; ITS, we add, is a
necessary basis for electric traction when we think about the needs to book charging spots, to
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choose optimal routing for recharging and the like, being recharging much more restricting
that fuelling.
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The role of ICTs in the transformation and the experience of travelling has been taken into
account in the paper by Lee-Gosselin and Buliung, 2012, in which the role of ITS in a more
oil independent transport system is emphasised.
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Hybrid vehicles projects have been investigated in the paper by Hannan et al, 2014, who gave
details about related industrial technologies and their shortcomings; some studies on
renewable energy technologies, energy management systems and other related topics have
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been reinvestigated.
The papers by Aftabuzzaman and Mazloumi, 2011, Shaik Amjad Neelakrishnan,
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Rudramoorthy, 2010, and Al-Alawi and Bradley, 2013, present both energy issues, which are
hereafter analysed, and comprehensive summaries on HEV, PHEV and EV penetration rates
studies, their methods and their recommendations. In the third one, these studies have been
applied with a set of analytical and computational tools to model the consumers’ acceptability
of these technologies under a wide variety of policy and macro-economic scenarios.
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4. Recent trends in demand and transport policy concerning energy in automotive field

From the previous paragraphs, a few main elements emerge: in the present century, the
strengthening of sustainability issues and the development of motionless communication have
been conditioning the increase in transport, and therefore the use of automobiles, at least in
the most technologically advanced areas in the world. In recent years, the constraints on

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emissions have also had important effects on the production of engines, and have opened the
door to alternative solutions; automobile makers have tried to respond to these twofold
restraints by merging for pursuing economies of scale and by innovating, in order to have the

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possibility of investing. However, they cannot make faults on such revolutionary investments
on cleaner production that road transport sustainability requires. The double-attacking

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sustainability concept has to be faced with a winning cleaner solution that will be able to
satisfy the current modern transport demand. An attempt has here been made to try to
understand this latter aspect at both a macro level and then at a personal choice level.
Starting from the macro level, attention has here been focused on Europe, as Europe is at the

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core of this issue and one of the main supporters of energy and environmental issues. The
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European Union appears to be determined to tackle the energy issues pertaining to transport
sustainability: its White Paper “Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area - Towards a
competitive and resource efficient transport system" (COM/2011/144, EC, 28.3.2011) targets
ambitious objectives concerning independence from black oil as well as the utilisation of
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technologies in such a pursuit, in line with “Horizon 2020”; the USA has also made
significant steps (April 2013) towards independence from black oil for the traction and
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propulsion of transport systems. In 2016, Japan declared the will to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions from transport usage.
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In order to lay the bases for viable future technological evolutions and industrial outcomes,
the authors here intend to deal specifically with the following topics on the demand and use of
energy in transport systems:
1. to what extent transport systems and road transport have an impact on the use of energy;
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2. how energy consumption has evolved in transport systems and in the automotive industry;
3. to what extent the use of energy has an impact on road transport;
4. what the involvement of the governments is in the use of oil-derived energy for
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automobiles;
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5. what cleaner industrial solutions can be prospected in a changing economy, related to both
the traction of vehicles and the economic interest of the public administrations.

The following sections first gather and synthesise a general framing on the role and impact of
transport systems on the overall energy consumption, with the related evolution, and –

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conversely – on the impact of consumption on the operational cost of the different transport
modes. These elements are essential for a better understanding of where and to what extent
energy efficiency can have an impact on automotive transport, and they provide the grounds
for some general considerations on the energy demand in transportation, as well as on its
subsequent impact on economics in general.
As mentioned above, the literature on this subject has produced a multitude of technical
reports, analyses and descriptive articles; however, a more accurate investigation of the
general matter still seems to be useful. The aim of the present paper has been to provide a

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perspective of consequent industrial choices, engines, automobiles and preferable transport
solutions, taking into consideration the per-capita energy use in transport modes, which, in
this frame, becomes essential.

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5. Impact of the transport systems in general on energy usage

The transport industry is mainly characterised by the use of distributed energy vehicles,

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with the exception, in general terms, of those systems which operate on tracks or fixed
installations, such as railways, subways, cableways and automated people movers (Dalla
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Chiara et al, 2008a). As will be specified further on, in most cases, the energy source is
combusted directly by engines on-board vehicles - be they on road, sea, inland waterways or
air – that are provided with a fuel tank.
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Almost all these transport systems are based upon oil derived fuels, and the current
alternatives often show significant limits. The transport systems operating on fixed
installations do not depend only on the aforementioned fuels since – as is well known – they
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also use, with the exception of infrequent Diesel traction vehicles, electric lines supplied by
power stations, irrespective of the energy source used to supply such stations. Moreover, the
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automobile field is the only one which is almost exclusively based upon a sole primary source
(Dalla Chiara et al, 2008b). For example, the data supplied by the Italian Ministry of
Economic Development in 2010 have shown that, in Italy, such a dependence was nearly
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93.4% for use in transport system (road, rail, ...), although this figure seems to be reducing
compared to 2005, when the use of black oil was nearly 97%: This dependence on black oil
was estimated as 98.2% in Great Britain in 2011 (Department of Energy and Climate Change,
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2012), 98.5% in Switzerland in 2011 (Federal Department of the Environment, 2012) and
99% in Australia in 2002 (ABARE, 2004). Some figures, at a European level, dating back to
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the beginning of the decade (2001 EC White Book on transports [COM/2001/0370 def.])
estimated this value as 98% while it was estimated as 96% in the USA in the same period,
although it reduced to 93.2% in 2010 (US Transportation, Energy Data Book, 2011). The
2011 White book on Transport Systems reports a figure of 96% in the EU. These values also

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include capital expenditures: for example, nearly 67.4 billion Euros - nearly 30 of which of
industrial component - for Italian drivers each year, in 2012-2013-2014: this value was
somewhat lower in 2015 because of the reduction in cost per barrel of oil; reducing the overall
amount by the industrial component, the remaining part is mainly associated with taxes
absorbed by the government.

According to Eurostat, the impact of transport systems in Europe (EU-25) on the overall
energy consumption in EU countries in 2004 resulted to be equal to 30.7%; such a value grew
to approximately 32% (2006) and to 33-34% (2008) in the following years (Dalla Chiara,

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2010; Dalla Chiara et al, 2008b; EIA, 2006 and 2008). The impact of the transport systems in
Europe is nearly 10% greater than the world average (estimated as 20.42% in 2003), due to
the presence of a larger average motorised mobility than in other continents. Europe shows

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variability in the impact of transport consumption on the overall final values reported for the
different countries (Unione Petrolifera, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014) (Fig. 2). Transportation

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accounted for almost 70% of petroleum use in the USA from 2008 to 2014 and had an impact
of 28% on the total energy use in the USA. The total petroleum consumption reached more
than 20 million barrels per day in 2007, but has been below that level from 2008 onwards

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(U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review,
June 2015).
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Fig. 2. Impact of the energy consumption of transport on the final domestic consumption in Europe and in the
relevant nations, - data from 2006-’08-’10-’11 (Dalla Chiara, 2010; Unione Petrolifera, 2009, 2011, 2013,
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2014).

According to publications referring to EU25 (EC, 2004, 2005, 2006), within the framework of
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motor transport systems, road haulage covers a share of the overall energy consumption
(equivalent tons of oil) of approximately 82.5%, and is therefore predominant - at a
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continental scale - over other modalities (EC, 2007); railways have been estimated to be
approximately 3% below (Table 1).
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Table 1. EU-25, consumption of transport modality in 1990, 2004 and 2010, in 1000 toe7 (EC, 2007 and EU
Transport – Statistical Pocketbook 2012).

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6. Evolution of energy consumption in transport systems and in automotive field

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In order to start answering the second question, circulating vehicles need to be considered.
The number of automobiles in European countries can be seen to have experienced
continuous growth in the second half of the 20th century (Fig. 3, referring to Italy), as has also
been shown for Germany (Woldeamanuel et al., 2009).
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In 2008, approximately 176.5 million vehicles out of the 806 million ones in the whole world
(Fig. 4) were circulating in China alone, that is, approximately 21% of the whole world’s fleet
(Dalla Chiara, 2010)8.
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However, more worrisome data are expected for the future (The Worldwatch Institute, 2007):
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the European population is approx. 500 mln. inhabitants, i.e. one fifth of the overall
population of China and India.
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Equivalent tons of oil.
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To define the present consumption, it would also be necessary to examine the use people make of such a
circulating fleet, which is related to both the average distance covered and the relevant occupancy rate; the latter
aspect cannot be obtained as reliable information.
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Fig. 3. Evolution of light and heavy-duty vehicles in Italy from the end of the 19th century until today (elaborated
on data collected by Maggi, 2005; ACI/ANFIA-I, for various years) and our association to a typical or
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generic phases of business evolution.
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Fig. 4. Vehicles circulating in the world: approximate trend on the basis of a few known data and estimates from
different sources (Sources: miscellaneous; Unione Petrolifera, 2009, 2011; The Physics Factbook, World
motor vehicle market report, 2010).
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Consequently, if, according to the current trend, these two countries reach an average level of
motorisation equal to the European one, the conditions might come to a head, since the
demand for oil in these Countries would grow at a very fast rate, with an expectable
subsequent increase in its sale price, except – of course – in the case of very competitive
alternative resources. In China, in the last 40 years (i.e. between 1965 and 2005), oil
consumption has increased from approximately 11 million tons per year to 327 million tons
(Dalla Chiara, 2010): i.e. a 2,900% increment for an average increase of approximately 72.5%
each year.

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Considering the above information an attempt will here be made to verify whether the recent
almost constant values of circulating vehicles in most industrialised countries can be
confirmed by the current mobility of people; recent trends of individual motorised mobility in

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Europe and USA show a nearly constant trend (Fig. 5, Fig. 6).

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Fig. 5. Annual vehicle distance covered on highways in the USA, Moving 12-month total on all highways (US
Department of Transportation, 2013; US Department of Transportation, Federal Highways Administration
(FHA); 2013, Traffic volume trends; Compiled with available data from January 17, 2014).
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.
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Fig. 6. Passenger kilometres travelled by private cars and light trucks, 1990-2010 (index 1990=100) (OECD,
2013).
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As an example, it can be observed that the total distance covered by light vehicles along
Italian toll-paying motorways (figure 6) decreased by 1.6% in 2011 compared to 2010; as far
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as heavy-duty vehicles are concerned, the v·km were almost equal to those of 2010 (-0,1%);
the traffic of heavy-duty vehicles was less in 2011 than that recorded in 2003. The
comparison shows -23.5% t·km for toll-paying motorways in France between 2007 and 2012
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(FNTR, 2013). The traffic was almost constant between 2012 and 2015, but there has been a
slight increase since 2014 and a notable increase in 2016.
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Fig. 7. Vehicles per kilometre for all vehicles, 1970-2012 (elaboration by the authors on data obtained from
AISCAT, 2013).

All the aforementioned conditioning aspects associated with sustainable transport – i.e. land
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use, energy use, environmental impact, maintenance, increased safety, level of personal
mobility – seem to have had a real impact on mobility and therefore require an appropriate
analysis for a subsequent general economic and cleaner industrial solution in the automotive
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field. Attention has here been focused on the energy aspect, given this monopolistic situation
on the used energy source and on the driving population – which has become consolidated
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over nearly/almost one century – together with the implications it has on technological
innovation, industrial production and, consequently, on the environment.
The almost complete monopoly of one energy source in this field is not necessarily negative,
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since it creates a global standard for both production and for the maintainability of internal
combustion engines, while their production is balanced between two options, on the basis of
the availability and prices of oil-derivate fuels: It also creates economies of competence: one
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century of results cannot be disregarded. However, it could become an issue if one or more of
the already long-lasting threats begins to compromise the already slaving balance of payments
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of those nations that cannot take advantage of internal oil extraction at competitive costs,
being exporters of black oil part of an oligopoly: the exhaustion of oil-wells producing oil so
far available at reasonable prices, which are being taken over by unpredictable self-
establishing and self-declaring states, because of the unsettled conditions of the Islam area,
the convenience of the WTW analysis (see below), environmental constrains – such as, for
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example, those officially stated on CO2 emissions in Europe – which, as far as all combustion
products are concerned, are closely related to both climate change aspects and Public health,
could all play a role. There is still a need to examine the energy usage pertaining to land
transport into more detail for our subsequent proposals concerning the automotive industry.

7. Energy usage in the road transport sector

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The impact of energy consumption on road transport vehicles is extremely variable, mainly
because of the very different kinds of vehicles that circulate: those with from 2 up to 10
wheels and sometimes more, with related masses and mutable usage in terms of grades of

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roads, speeds of vehicles and their variations. As an example, it is possible to mention the
exceptional impact of energy consumption on the running cost of freight - i.e. heavy-duty

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vehicles – in many industrialised countries between 2008 and 2010, a value that was
approximately equal to 25 to 35%, with further peaks of up to 37% in the 2011-2015 period.
The incidence of road freight transport, including industrial and commercial vehicles, on the
overall road transport energy consumption reached approximately 39.5% in 2008 (Dalla

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Chiara and, Pinna, 2012).
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The purely indicative example reported in Fig. 8 shows the incidence of the cost of gasoil on
road haulage, as taken from data supplied by the Italian Ministry of Infrastructures and
Transport. The values obviously vary on the basis of the total weight and average yearly
coverage of the heavy-duty (industrial) and commercial vehicles, but there is no particular
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reason for such different percentages in other similar countries, apart from a variability of
State taxes, as modern freight vehicles are all similar in terms of average consumption.
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Fig. 8. Incidence of the cost of gasoil on freight road haulage, elaborated on the basis of Ministerial data for
2011 and on field data for the 2012-2014 period (for Italy): the columns report the distance classes [km],
while the lines report the total weight on the ground.

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The incidence of road transport energy consumption on the overall energy consumption in a
given country can be estimated from this information. If Italy is taken as an example, energy
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consumption can be seen to have consistently increased during the second half of the 20th
century as a result of the progressively large number of circulating vehicles: such a growth
was moderate from the second half of the nineteen forties until the first half of the nineteen
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sixties (nearly 430,000 commercial and industrial vehicles were circulating in Italy in 1960 ),
but increased remarkably faster – on average– in the nineteen seventies and eighties (nearly
1,370,000 in 1980) and then decreased (negative second derivative) in the last fifteen or so
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years. In the last 12-15 years, the number of registered vehicles – both light and heavy duty
ones – has remained nearly constant in Italy, i.e. approx. 3 million units. This trend is rather
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similar to that of other European countries.

However, although the scenario of the circulating fleet, which is obviously not the only
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factor that affects energy consumption, shows a trend going towards saturation in European
countries, the worldwide status is rather different; the 46,614,342 heavy-duty vehicles
estimated in 1968 (i.e. 21.5% of the overall fleet) rose to approximately 109,000,000 in 1985
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(22.5% of the total) and to approximately 185.404.000 in 1996 (27.6%). Nowadays, according
to data derived from the literature, heavy-duty vehicles may amount to approximately 300
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million units, with a continuous increase that has mainly been ascribed to industrially
evolving areas throughout the world.
The evolution of petrol and gasoil consumption for automotive traction in industrialised
counties can be calculated; a trend that has constantly grown over various decades for
different nations as well as a reduction over the last few years (see, for example, Maggi, 2005;
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Dalla Chiara and Pinna, 2012; The Executive Office of the President of the United States,
2015) can be observed.

If Italian data are again considered as an example, it can be seen that the consumption of
petrol and gasoil in 2005 resulted to be:
- approximately 18,766 billion litres of petrol;
- approximately 29,85 billion litres of gasoil;
- approximately 47,851 billion litres in total.
These figures rose to 12,530 billion litres of fuel in 2011 and 30,000 109 of litres of gas oil

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(diesel); in in 2013 these were 11,146 109 litres of fuel and 30,488 109 of litres of gas oil
(diesel). It can therefore be seen that a remarkable reduction has taken place. Gasoil
consumption results to be much higher than that of petrol, even though the number of petrol-

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fuelled vehicles in Italy was more than double o gasoil-fuelled ones; this is because of two
partially obvious reasons, namely:

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- the yearly average road coverage of gasoil vehicles is far greater than that of petrol
vehicles;
- approximately 91% of the road vehicles devoted to the transport of goods are gasoil

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fuelled; it is well known that they cover long distances per year and their consumption is
higher than that of passenger cars.
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During the last five-year period, gasoil consumption in Italy has been recorded as being
approximately 60 to 70% of the total consumption (petrol and gasoil), with a growing trend in
the last few years; the average road coverage of heavy-duty vehicles compared to that of
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passenger cars is not known: however, some estimates can be made to identify the energy
impact.
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The total consumption of fuels is obtained by adding the consumption of petrol-fuelled

vehicles to that of light vehicles, multiplied by the relevant road coverage plus that of diesel
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and the heavy-duty vehicles, multiplied by the respective values. The above mentioned
individual factors, although they cannot be established precisely for the current situation, may
be ascertained in the future, through the use of black boxes9. However, the overall refuelling
data at petrol stations are instead available.
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The data provided by the Conto Nazionale dei Trasporti (i.e. the Italian Report on National
Transport Data) reported that, in 2004, the fleet of diesel cars - even though they represented
little more than 25% of the total fleet- consumed almost 38% of oil derived fuels.
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In April 2015, the European Parliament voted in favour of an eCall regulation which requires all new cars to be
equipped with eCall technology from April 2018 onwards. In the event of a serious accident, eCall automatically
dials 112 – the established emergency number throughout Europe, according to Commission Delegated
Regulation (EU) No 305/2013 of 26.11.2012, which updates Directive 2010/40/EU of the European Parliament
and of the Council with regard to the harmonised provision of an interoperable EU-wide eCall.

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The same source also shows, with reference to in 2010, that the percentage of gasoil cars had
increased over the previous few years: 14.72% in 2000, 19% in 2002, 25.23% in 2004,
31.18% in 2006 and 35.47% in 2008, up to 44.6% in 2014 (41.1 considering the new electric
and natural gas vehicles).
Furthermore, the circulating fleet of industrial and commercial vehicles being known
(4.672.659 in 2005, 5.039.327 in 2015), as well as that of buses and diesel cars, it can be
inferred that diesel traction vehicles consumed an average of little less than 2000 litres per
vehicle per year in those years; with diversified assessments on the consumption of passenger

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cars and heavy vehicles, it is possible to estimate an impact of between 35 and 40% of the
total litres consumed for traction by heavy vehicles : these vehicles have represented
approximately 12 to 13% of the total number of vehicles and approximately 29 to 32% of the

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Diesel vehicles in the last 5 to 6 years: However, it can easily be assumed that their average
road coverage is higher than that of cars.
On the other hand, other analyses (e.g. that of ENEA) show that the impact of heavy vehicles

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on road energy consumption in Italy is approximately 35 to 40%; these values are essentially
similar to the aforementioned ones.

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In comparison to other countries in Europe, it results that such a value – was at a
minimum of 23.8 in Germany in 1990 and a maximum of 36 in France. As an example, the
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percentage impact of energy consumption of heavy-duty vehicles on the total figure was
33.5% in Austria in 2007, 34.3% in Croatia, 41% in France and 29.2 in Germany (Energy
Efficiency Indicators taken from Europe, Odysee, 2011).
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All the above information leads to the fact that - on the basis of the 2012 data, i.e. the most
completely available ones, since at that time transports were impacting for approx. 33.2% of
the overall energy consumption in Italy, if we reasonably assume that the European average of
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82.6% approx. as energetic impact of road transport on the transports applies to this country
as well - the freight vehicles and the connected activities of external logistics consume
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approx. 10% of the overall energy; with the values of the most recent years, we reach an
impact of 11 to 12%.

Fig. 9 reports the impact of road freight transport on the overall road transport energy
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consumption. A value close to 40% is shown for Italy. Data from the USA Transportation,
Energy Data book (for 2012 and 2015) show that approximately 22% of consumption is for
medium and heavy trucks.
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As far as the use of alternative fuels is concerned, the percentage of Biofuel in Italy was 0.9 in
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2006, 0.9 in 2007 and 2.3 in 2008; the European average over 27 countries was 2, 2.6 and 3.5,
respectively.

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Fig. 9. Impact of road haulage on the overall energy consumption for road transport (Italy).

What do all these values actually mean for this paper? The sustainability of road transport
passes through a reliable quantification of its incidence on energy production and, reversely,
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the comprehension of energy impact on road transport operation. As black oil has emerged as
a relevant problem, whether in terms of prices, availability, reserves, political stability or
emissions, an industrial solution for production should be proposed than should be compliant
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with constraints and the available technological solutions, while respecting economies of
scale and engineering competence associated with oil usage, as will be pointed out in more
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detail hereafter.

However, it is also necessary to recall that the automotive field is currently put in competition
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with both motionless communications (e.g. teleworking, teleconferences, etc.) and with more
competitive trains: automated undergrounds in metropolitan contexts as well as regional or
high-speed trains over medium and long distances, of up to approximately 600-800
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km/direction per day. Motionless communication is competitive in terms of costs and of

energy usage. However, the impact on the operational cost of energy consumption for the
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main land transport alternatives such as railways, subways and tramways, are meaningful.
Some indicative data, which are similar to one another, show values of between ~4-5% and
~6% (Dalla Chiara, 2010.), in terms of energy impact for operating rail systems on their
overall costs (we have seen a 30-35% for the heavy-duty trucks, less of course for
automobiles but the ratio remains around 1/5-1/7 as that of the rolling resistance). This means
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that, when applicable, they potentially constitute a very important alternative to road vehicles,
in terms of energy and environmental sustainability, as well as to motorised and clean means
(such as bicycles, bike-sharing services, car sharing using electric cars, ...), for short ranges. It
is therefore possible to wonder whether automotive production has a way-out or solution in
this context: for this purpose, if the usage of either alternative fuels or energy carriers
represents a solution, a more extended analysis on the overall energy consumption is required
for a sustainable technological and economic solution in terms of a clean production for the
market.

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8. A comprehensive analysis based on the overall energy consumption

In order to provide an appropriate analysis on energy consumption, within its sustainability

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context, and to trace an appropriate technological perspective - which can be considered as
satisfactory from a methodological point of view - related to all transport systems, the well-to-
wheel (WTW) index (a tool which was first proposed and consolidated in the automotive

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industry, but which is rarely applied to the other modes) needs to be applied once we decided
to abandon the near-monopoly of black oil and the direct combustion of its derivatives on
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board.
WTW is an absolute energy index, whose function enables combinations of different
propulsion technologies and different fuels or energy carriers (i.e. hydrogen and electricity,
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which - once they are produced - can be considered as fuels), obtained from a wide variety of
primary sources to be compared.
The WTW index, which can be defined as the integration of all the processes required to
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produce and distribute fuel (starting from its primary energy source) and to use it in a vehicle
(EC, 2004 and 2007), consists of the combination of two more specific sub-indexes, namely:
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the well-to-tank (WTT) and tank-to-wheel (TTW) indexes, although an intermediate index,
referring to the charging solution, i.e. how the tank or battery is charged or refuelled, is
introduced when useful.
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WTT considers the amount of energy required to make fuel available from the primary energy
source (energy expenditure for extraction, for the chemical transformation processes and for
transport) to the supply to the car tank, in a broad meaning; it is usually expressed as MJt/MJf,
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where MJt is the overall amount of energy spent to make such an MJ of fuel available and MJf
is the energy contained in the fuel stored in the vehicle tank.
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TTW instead considers the amount of energy used to move a means of transport over a given
distance, which depends on the combination of the fuel and of the used propulsive
technology. From the analysis point of view, the assessment of the WTW index is obtained
from the following ratio:

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 MJt   MJt   MJ f 
WTW   = WTT   ⋅ TTW   (1)
 km   MJ f   km 

In the automotive industry, TTW can be determined through standardised guiding processes,
where the speeds and the driving conditions (i.e. stops at traffic lights and slopes) are as close
to reality as possible (typical driving cycles).
It should be mentioned that calculating WTW for the rolling stock is instead a complex

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exercise. The standard pathway on which the consumption of the different trains is calculated,
as well as the broad heterogeneity of the circulating stock and the relevant performances all
represent significant drawbacks of this method. Because of the lack of availability to the

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public of data from energy counters either on board locomotives (Dalla Chiara et al, 2008b) or
at sub-stations, pertaining to the connected rail traffic, three alternative options need to be

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taken into account, namely:
− the use of empirical formulas, which have to be specific for each section and for each type
of train; this option is more functional in a case study scenario, since, because of the broad
heterogeneity of lines and vehicles, it cannot provide general indications as the car WTW

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(instead) can;
− the use of other empirical formulas based upon the resistances of the train and therefore on
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the equation of motion;
− the use of analytical models to establish the dynamics of train motion; this would call for
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highly accurate data which are often difficult to find.

While the mass of a vehicle is highly significant in rail transport, since it prevails over the
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weight of the transported passengers, it has little significance in the car industry. This is why,
when only conducting a comparison between different trains, analysing and proposing the
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data in MJf/(p·km) is not always sufficient, and it would sometimes be more meaningful to
consider the handled load, e.g. in MJf/(t·km).
Another parameter that has to be known in order to determine the WTW of trains is the load
factor, which, reporting the number of passengers as a percentage of the seats available on a
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train, quantifies its occupancy and therefore establishes an index for its utilisation.
In order to calculate the absolute energy expenditure of each mode, the WTW needs to be
multiplied by the number of transported passengers and by the kilometres covered by each
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vehicle.
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This section shows that road transport can only be sustainable as far as it can remain
competitive not only from the TTW analysis, which has implicitly accompanied our market
and our car manufacturers for almost all of the last century, but also from the overall energy
chain viewpoint, that is the WTW. The latter index is competitive for trains as far as they are
well used, that is do not transport almost “air” but passengers or freight. So the sustainability
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seems again to burden much the automotive field, leaving market to trains when they are well
satisfying the demand in terms of services.

9. Potential energy migrations

An important consideration here needs to be pointed out: the WTW analysis becomes
necessary when it is needed or present policies (as in EU) oblige one to migrate from one
transport market, which is almost completely dominated by black oil - through the products of

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its distillation, as the primary energy source chosen nearly one century ago – to a different
one; any alternative has to be evaluated on the basis of the energy needed to obtain it -
especially in the case in which it is not used directly , i.e. burnt, inside the vehicle, as occurs

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with fuels – with particular reference to energy carriers (Fig. 10).
Once the energy monopoly has partially been abandoned in the automotive filed, the energy
supply for transport could take a large number of different pathways, as shown in Fig. 10.

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Alternative fuels would gradually become a much more significant part of the energy mix.
However, it is difficult to identify a single candidate for a cleaner market and, consequently,
production; the fuel demand and the challenges set by greenhouse gases will most likely

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imply the use of a wide variety of primary energies. There is rather broad agreement that all
the available sustainable fuels will be needed to resolve the expected supply/demand tensions.
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Fig. 10. Energy pathways in transport and other sectors (Source: our/the authors’ modifications of ERTRAC,
2011).

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Irrespective of the costs and prices of the energy source, which are subject to variations due to
the market fluctuations, it is necessary to underline that the WTW index varies over time and
space, since it is related to the current or known availability of sources and to the kind of
energy in use within a given country or region.

10. The role of occupancy and load

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As previously mentioned, a merely quantitative analysis would not be sufficient for the aim of
this paper. Instead, the actual use of each and every transport mode should be taken into

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consideration. From this point of view, public transport is obviously favoured, especially rail,
cableways and underground systems, because of their lack of dependence on black oil.
However, occupancy is also a relevant factor. The graphs reported in Fig. 11 and in

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Fig. 12 represent the energy consumed on board per person per kilometre and for each vehicle
kilometre, on the basis of the calculation of energy dissipation for an aerodynamic, specific

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resistance along a straight and plane path.
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Fig. 11. Energy consumed per person-km

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Fig. 12. Energy consumed per vehicle-km.
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From these graphs, it is possible to observe how relevant the good use of a vehicle can be to
obtain its sustainability, also quantifying the competition with other transport alternatives.
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11. Economic issues and their potential evolutions

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In such a general energy context related to sustainability, which is characterised by the almost
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exclusive use of oil derived fuel in the automotive transport systems, the role of Governments
should not to be underestimated: this role is quite significant in some cases, and has been of
particular relevance since the second half of the past century. This fact has been clearly
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documented, for example, for road transport in Italy: the tax components weigh by roughly
60% on the overall cost of one litre of fuel, and has remained almost the same over the last ten
years.
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Hence, the significance of the consumption of energy for transport - mainly road transport –
on Italian state revenues can be highlighted:
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− income for petrol excise taxes in 2013 = 0,7284 €/litre · 11,298,792,958 litres =
− 8,230,040,790 €;
− income for gas oil excise taxes in 2013 = 0,6174 €/litre · 29,642,129,870 litres =
18,301,050,982 €;

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− total revenue for excise taxes in 2013 = 8,230,040,790 + 18,301,050,982 =
26,531,091,772 €

Such values can also be estimated on the basis of the average distance covered yearly by
vehicles in Italy, which, according to a analyses of data collected by the “National Transport
Account” over several years, multiplied by the average consumption and the money income
from the excise taxes, is approximately equal to 12,500 km.
The data, which have been obtained theoretically, can be compared with and confirmed by

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those found in the State Budget. The aforementioned derived data on excise taxes can be
added to the income obtained from V.A.T.
Subsequently, the consumption of fuels generated revenues for the State - as excise taxes and

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V.A.T- of approximately 38,610,127,961 € in 2013 ( 31,712,424,567 € in 2005). This value
can be added to the income from V.A.T. for the purchase of vehicles and to road taxes; the
total revenue for excise duties in 2005 was 22,532,494,656 €.

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The last six to seven decades have witnessed a positive economic cycle in many industrialised
countries, where an increase in the road infrastructures has been accompanied by an increase

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in the national circulating fleet and vice-versa, as well as by an increase in the overall fuel
consumption, and hence in the State income: an economically profitable loop for the car
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industry, its staff, Governments, road manufacturers and infrastructure managers. Since
approximately the turn of the century, the conditioning elements listed in § 1 have taken on
more relevance, and an upper limit has been reached – together with the saturation of the
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market – for this positive collaboration within our industrial society over the last century.
This has triggered the scientific community to search for alternative solutions, both for the
general Economy and for a cleaner production, by studying typical distances covered by cars,
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the competitiveness of more oil independent and environmentally-friendly vehicles and ITS
(Intelligent Transport Systems) based on the intensive use of ICT. The main streams and
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recent results in literature pertaining to these aspects have already been synthesised.
On the basis of the available data on the vehicle fleet, the average distances covered per year
and the average emissions of the vehicles (EC, 2004, 2005; Jørgensen and Soreson, 1997;
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Strelow, 2006), the total emissions can also be estimated for different means of transport,
although they remain a consequence of the chosen energy.
An assumption that can be derived from the previous observations concerns what kind of
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payment can be applied to the use of the natural resources utilised to meet the modern
requirements of transport and mobility, namely:
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- A charge on oxygen, accompanied by the well-known considerations on CO2, which is

instead a combustion product and has arisen in the international panorama according
to Kyoto’s and subsequent agreements, does not seem to be realistic at all;

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- Payment related to the actual the road usage, intended as payment for the coverage of
the infrastructure (road pricing), with the support of transport telematics, would seem
far more realistic and has already been applied in a few countries.
This would have an impact on the transport demand, as it would generate the awareness of the
actual utilisation of the distances covered by means of one's own motor vehicle, and a
correction could be applied on the basis of the related market. In many countries, the current
tax system responds to a logic which does not depend on the covered mileage, but is a
function of the power and emission class of the engine. This innovation aspect could be

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considered in the mosaic that is traced hereafter for a cleaner production and cleaner
automobiles.

What has emerged from the previous remarks implies that, in most industrialised countries, a

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continuous increase should not necessarily be expected in either mobility or in the
consumption related to it – as occurred for many decades–while safety, quality and efficiency

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– mainly as far as energy is concerned – should be pursued (Deflorio et al., 2008).
Subsequently, the industrialised economic system, i.e. that of one of the most mature
countries, from the industrial point of view, seems to be passing from a context that is

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prevailingly based on both industrial and civil production, the latter being intended
specifically as the building of transport infrastructures, to another one based upon
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maintenance, but also on efficiency, quality and safety.
However, considering the world scenario, one of the main challenges our society is facing
remains the procurement and management of energy for transport fuels and carriers, as well as
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the consequences of their use on both people and the environment, in the wide meaning of the
word.
Such issues have a great influence on all the sectors of energy consumption, and on land
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transport in particular.
For this reason, an important step has been taken with EU Directive 2009/33/EC of the
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European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of clean and energy-efficient road
transport vehicles. However, other relevant activities have also been carried out, as in the
USA and other nations around the world. The directive considers the emissions that occur
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during Tank-To-Wheel (TTW) energy use. Details of various categories and sub-categories of
vehicles can be obtained by adopting this methodology. It should be borne in mind that, given
the variability of sources for WTT, the WTW index, which varies in time and space, has to be
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considered as a necessary and unavoidable instrument to choose innovation in transport

systems, although it is not necessarily a mathematical instrument of choice.
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12. Not a single fuel

As regards road vehicles, on the basis of the previous analysis, Fig. 13 reports a viable
scenario, in the authors’ opinion, for future traction and propulsion, on the basis of the WTW
analysis and all the aforementioned considerations, interactions of production with the
territory and energy availability (European Expert Group on Future Transport Fuel Report,
2011). The concept expressed within the graph is that, according to the energy availably and
environmental sensibility within a country (left side) and the research plus industrial

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capabilities throughout the territory, the production and usage of internal combustion engines
(e.g. in an oil producing area, such as an Arab country) or electric vehicles (e.g. in an electric
current producing area from nuclear power, such as in France), will be favoured, with all the

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intermediate mixtures leading to different kinds of hybrid vehicles in relation to the weight of
black oil or alternative carriers within energy economy. Moreover, the availability of
recharging spots available either in private areas or on public land, together with the usage

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(mass, distances) made of vehicles will help to frame the market: short trips and light-duty
vehicles, of up to approximately 3.5-5 tons of gross vehicle weight (GVW), will lead people
to prefer electric traction (not necessarily by fully electric vehicles, but perhaps by the electric

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motor of plug-in hybrid one) while higher masses or long distances will continue to be
covered by internal combustion engines (gasoil, compressed or liquid natural gas, liquefied
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propane gas); in the latter case, the availability of recharging spots has been found to not be of
great importance . Flexible engines, such as multi-fuel ones, help where high masses and long
journeys need alternatives to black-oil derivate fuels (e.g. in Brasil). This is a differentiated
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market, more oil independent and respectful of the local energy preferences, addressed to a
cleaner production and operation of road vehicles.
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Fig. 13. A perspective of road vehicle traction and propulsion on the basis of an WTW analysis, an interaction of
the production with the territory and energy availability (elaborated on Dalla Chiara and Pinna, 2012).
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The present analysis leads to the conclusion that there is no single solution that could be
used for all transport modes in order to respect the recent environmental constraints; a viable
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energy carrier, such as biofuels, cannot be sustainably produced in the required quantities for
this purpose. Biofuels could therefore be used selectively for transport modes in which
electric vehicles and fuel cells are not expected to be technically viable. Rechargeable Hybrid
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electric vehicles (R-HEVs), that is, battery and fuel cell vehicles could be developed for
passenger cars and light-duty vehicles (LDVs), bearing in mind the different upfront costs of
these two technologies and the local, regional and national energy production (WTT).
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The viability of a large-scale market penetration of both battery and fuel cell vehicles
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depends to a great extent on the forthcoming developments of the basic technology they both
require. Literature sources claim that such technologies may achieve sufficient development
to start penetrating the market within the next 10 to 15 years. If only one of the two
technologies reaches the development required to penetrate the market of light-duty vehicles
(i.e. covering all the possible distance and weight segments of LDVs), refuelling/recharging
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infrastructures will need to be built at the same time as, or shortly before, any large scale
penetration, and this technology could then dominate the market and could even replace oil-
based fuels. In addition, if an energy carrier is produced with low or free carbon sources, the
developments could easily lead to reductions of as much as 60% in transportation emissions
by 2050.
The development of both the aforementioned technologies, as already mentioned, would
depend to a great extent on the conducted research and development as well as on the
implementation of infrastructures, which, to a certain extent, would need to rely on public

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resources and investments. The development of rechargeable hybrid road vehicles, mainly
light-duty ones, would be much freer. These would need to maintain the global
standardisation so far introduced for internal combustion engines and leave both the user and

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the public administrations greater ranges of freedom in the use of either electric motors or
internal combustion engines, according to both the WTT and the TTW, besides respecting any
constraint imposed by local administration (e.g., city centres allowed only to non-polluting

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vehicles) and also leaving the Governments some grades of freedom to impose excise taxes
on the use of fuels or (fast) electric current (the slow domestic one can be distinguished with
difficulty from other uses as oven and refrigerators rather than for charging a vehicle).

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Therefore, the problem might be solved by partially reversing the energy used by a sector
onto the electric grid. This energy constitutes nearly one third of the overall energy
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consumption in Europe, which aims to exit from the monopoly of the source that was chosen
at the beginning of the last century. Various solutions could be adopted, from the higher
efficiency of the internal combustion engines to the hybrid-electric, fully-electric vehicles
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(charged on the grid, at a price that would likely vary from nation to nation and from Region
to Region), to a higher load on electric powered public transport, to alternative primary
energies, including Natural Gas.
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The potential scenario outlined in this paper could determine remarkable changes for
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corporate systems that operate in the automotive field. In recent years, different alternative
proposals to the use of oil have been made and significant forward-looking technologies have
been developed to improve energy efficiency and emissions to the environment, together with
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the implementation of ITS, infotainment systems and other innovative characteristics in a

perspective of reducing the purchase cost of vehicles as well as the costs related to their
utilisation. However, some aspects have hindered a fast transition in this direction. Only a few
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companies have connected and innovated their productions. Some have proposed innovative
models in the energy field, while others have developed product innovations to attract their
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customers. However, mass production still focuses on the most conventional products i.e.
those that make use of the black oil monopoly, most likely because of the uncertainty of the
responses by the market and the capability of oil producers to apply dumping on new markets
(e.g. shale gas) which do not ponder them enough. The choice of the technologies to introduce
is particularly complex, as described: some solutions may result to be winning, and
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governments may foster the spreading of some of them or introduce different standards (for
electric recharging, for emissions, for taxation with excise duties), for different geographic
areas, thus creating unavoidable barriers to entry on their markets.

In this way, production in the automotive field could evolve in this changing economy,
otherwise it will lose the battle, because of the environmental constraints, against alternative
more energy-friendly transport modes (bicycles, electric car sharing, fully automated
undergrounds, high speed trains, mobility as a service), and against motionless
communication, from the saturation of the market viewpoint.

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The range of technologies that can be implemented is currently wide and, as observed, the
choice could be implemented as a function of the availability of the different energy resources

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throughout the different territories, and this could also occur at an international level, with
adaptations, if required, – on the local markets. The search for partners in order to develop

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innovative technologies might lead to a significant increase in mergers, acquisitions and
strategic alliances in the USA, Europe and Japan as well as in emerging countries. The
strategy adopted by the automotive field to develop innovation and creativity is based on the
cooperation strategy. There have been many cooperation agreements, with suppliers (for

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production) and also with their competitors (Williams et al., 2011). The proposals of
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innovative cars might also come from companies or other industries.
Therefore, the European automotive manufacturers who win the challenge and manage to sell
green cars and vehicles provided with ITS at a large scale might make their market more
attractive and also meet the consumers’ demands on the international markets, thus increasing
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their share and – subsequently – their global usage economic results. These manufacturers
could meet the primary needs of other stakeholders, and thus achieve sustainable growth and
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social consensus by developing eco-innovations and generating new economies.

Only if European automotive industry companies manage to develop, produce and spread the
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use of vehicles fuelled by alternative sources to oil and which are equipped with ITS systems
in the forthcoming years, with the support of governments, will they also be able to strengthen
their competitiveness on international markets; numerous countries that are currently oil-
dependent could converge to be independent of the use of oil. As an example, Italian drivers
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spend 60 to 70 billion Euros per year on purchasing oil (a total of 67.4 billion Euros was spent
at petrol and gasoil pumps in 2012); in European Union, they spend a few hundreds of million
Euros/year for the same purpose.
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13. Conclusions

In this historical period, technology is offered as a crossover solution to resolve energy and
the consequent environmental issues, as well as a tool through which Automotive production

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can remedy the fact that the resource which was prevailingly utilised for transport during the
last century may become scarce, compromised politically unmanageable and not
environmentally-acceptable or could be perceived as such. Moreover, this is happening at the
same time as the explosion of motionless communication, a phenomenon which has become
diffused with an almost contemporaneous saturation of the road vehicle market. This
technological solution can be obtained by improving the efficiency of engines or of journeys
or even by rationalising the consumption of the related activities by using ITS (Intelligent
Transport Systems) and by developing a production which can become sustainable by limiting

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the use of fossil fuels.
The main results of this work can be synthesised as follows: there is a need to respect the
centenarian economies of competence and of scale gravitating around internal combustion

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engines, to pursue independence from the main source, which is almost a monopoly, and to
use lower unitary energy in motorised mobility in order to reduce the fuel consumption per
person or per ton and – consequently – emissions. This aim can be pursued either through

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higher capacity transport modes, such as trains, while guaranteeing that vehicles are loaded
more than their break-even in energy as much as possible, or with a low level of oil-derived
energy used for operating road vehicles. The WTW analysis in fact synthesises most of these

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ideas. AN
Production in the automotive field is therefore called upon to evolve in this changing
economy, otherwise it may lose the battle because of the environmental constraints, the
saturation of the traditional market, in favour of alternative more energy-friendly transport
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modes, when suitable (bicycles, bike-sharing, electric car-sharing, full automated

undergrounds in metropolitan areas, high speed trains for medium range travels, also
integrated through personal cards for mobility as a service), or of motionless communications.
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An improvement in road transport can be pursued, in terms of quality, safety and efficiency of
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engines, and through the support of ITS. It would be necessary to try to develop independency
in transport from the almost only energy resource, i.e. oil, so as not to be restrained by it and
temporarily immobilised: the path that should be followed is through both efficiency and
alternative energies.
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The present analysis has pointed out that there is no single solution which could be used for
all transport modes to respect the recently introduced environmental constraints.
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Rechargeable Hybrid electric vehicles (R-HEV), that is, battery and fuel cell vehicles, have to
be developed for passenger cars and light-duty vehicles (LDVs), while bearing in mind the
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different upfront costs of these two technologies and the local, regional and national energy
production (WTT).

On the basis of the energy availably and environmental sensibility within a country as well as
the research plus industrial capabilities throughout the territory, a range of internal
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combustion engines to electric vehicles, with a prevalence of intermediate hybrid vehicles will
evolve in relation to the lack of black oil or richness of alternative carriers within a national or
regional energy economy. Moreover, the availability of recharging spots in either private
areas (preferable, up to indicatively the 90% of recharges, with slow charging) or on public
land , together with the usage (mass, distances) made of vehicles will frame the market: short
trips and light-duty vehicles, up to approximately 3.5-5 tons of total weight on the ground will
lead to electric traction (FEV or R-HEV) being favoured, while internal combustion engines
will continue to be used for higher masses and long journeys. Flexible engines, such as multi-

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fuel ones, help to resolve the problem when high masses and long journeys require
alternatives to black-oil derivate fuels. This in fact represents a differentiated market, which
would be more oil independent and respectful of the local energy preferences but also a much

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cleaner production.
For policy makers, a hybrid solution which could guarantee both independent recharging
(fuel and grid) and independent motorisation – by electric traction or ICE propulsion –

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currently (approx. 2016-2021) results to be the most viable solution for a green, connected
road vehicle, equipped for assisted driving and which could last for a number of years, as it
would have to be compliant with the natural cyclical renewal of personal cars. In a couple of

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years an engineering footprint might also be quantifiable, on the base of the actual efficiency
of hybrid solutions and related impacts on the electric grid.
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Highlights:
1. We introduce the role of sustainability in road transport, focusing on energy and emissions
2. We let emerge the impact of sustainability concepts on the automotive industry
3. We synthesise recent trends in demand and transport policies concerning energy in the
automotive field
4. We quantify energy usage in the road transport sector, outlining the need for a

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comprehensive analysis
5. We propose a transport and industrial policy with solutions for automotive production
together with “mobility as a service”

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