National Data ManagementCenter for health (NDMC)

Tracking progress in HIV/AIDS; Ethiopia vs regional countries

 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3 targets to eliminate HIV from being a public health threat
by 2030.
 Reducing new HIV infection and HIV/AIDS related mortality by 75% by 2020 from the 2010 baseline
are major millstones set to monitor progress towards the SDG target.
 As the HIV/AIDS epidemic is stabilizing, the UNAIDS has endorsed composite measures for tracking
countries progress towards SDG targets.
 Using Global Burden of Disease 2017 data, a team from the National Data Management Center for
health (NDMC) at EPHI has tracked progress in HIV/AIDS prevention and control in Eastern Sub-
Saharan Africa (ESSA) countries using recommended proposed composite measures.

Progress in reducing new HIV infection

 Slow progress in reducing new HIV infection Progress in people living with HIV/AIDS
has been recorded in ESSA region since 2010  The number of people living with HIV has
 Except Uganda none of the ESSA countries stabilized across the countries since 2010
would achieve 75% decline by 2020 to reach  Ethiopia has recorded a 23 % significant
the SDG target. decline between 2010 and 2017.
o Ethiopia recoded only 13.3 % decline Progress in reducing HIV/AIDS deaths
o Eretria recorded 13.6 % increase  All the counties have recorded significant
decline in HIV/AIDS related death rate
ESSA Eritrea between 2010 and 2017.
361 Ethiopia Kenya
Rwanda Tanzania o Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda have
304 Uganda achieved the 75% decline needed to
be reached by 2020.
248
220
225
210 o Eritrea, Kenya d Rwanda are less likely
187 197
162
to achieve the 2020 target unless they
131 140 116 made accelerated progress.
112 109 114
98 102 104
78 19 27 ESSA
53 2017 71 120 63 74 Eritrea
26 27 28 30
17 30 Ethiopia
16 16 15 27
2015 92 148 34 91 96 Kenya
2010 2013 2015 2017 36 Rwanda
40 Tanzania
Acknowledgment 2013 130 179 45 155 158 Uganda
The NDMC at Ethiopian Public Health Institute 46
(EPHI) acknowledges the Inistitute for Health 74
2010 203 252 79 273 270
Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for the collaborative 69
endavour to generate burden of diseases estimates for
0 400 800 1200
strengthen evidence informed health decion in
Ethiopia.

For more information, Contact Alemnesh Hailemariam Mirkuzie ,

EPHI, National Data Management Center for health (NDMC),
Tele: + 251 929376628
 Tracking resource need; Incidence:mortality ratio
 Most ESSA countries have more new HIV infections than HIV/AIDS related deaths. By contrast, Ethiopia
has more HIV/AIDS related deaths than new HIV infections
 UNAIDS proposed the use of Incidence:mortality ratio to forecast how current investments will impact
future resource needs. A ratio greater than 1 indicate net increase in new HIV infections and the likely
increase in the financial burden. A ratio less than 1 indicates net reduction in prevalent HIV cases due
to mortality, and the likely decrease in financial burden.
 This ratio for Ethiopia has been consistently less than 1 due to high death rate
 Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda have a ratio of greater than one due to high rate of new
infections, which implies high resource need to the countries to address the problem
INCIDENCE:MORTALITY RATIO

2.00
Eritrea

Ethiopia

1.00 Kenya

Rwanda

0.00
2010 2013 2015 2017

Tracking progress; Incidence:prevalence ratio

 According to UNAIDS, Incidence:prevalence 0.09
Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya
ratio of 0.03 is an epidemic transition Rwanda Tanzania Uganda
benchmark that signal whether a given
ESSA
country is on track to end HIV from being a 0.06
public health threat by 2030

 Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda have a ratio

less than 0.03 and are on track to achieve the 0.03
2030 goal.

 In Eritrea the ratio has been increasing year

0.00
by year since 2010 and the country is less 2010 2013 2015 2017
likely to achieve the goal.

Conclusion
Ethiopia has recorded an HIV incidence:prevalence ratio of < 0.03 and reduced HIV/AIDS related mortality by
75% and is on track to achieve these two 2020 Fast Track targets but unlikely to achieve 75% reduction in
new HIV infection between 2010 and 2020
About NDMC
The National Data Management Center for health at EPHI works in collaboration
For more information, contact
with the Global Burden of Diseases study group at the Institute for Health Metrics
and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The GBD study is a systematic,
Alemnesh Hailemariam Mirkuzie,
scientific effort to quantify the comparative magnitude of health loss from EPHI, National Data Management Center for
diseases, injuries, and risks by age, sex, and population over time. The study health (NDMC) coordinator
includes contributions of more than 400 Ethiopian researchers. The goal of the Tele + 251 929376628
study is to provide decision-makers with the best possible and most up-to-date
evidence on trends in population health.

Tele: + 251