Toledo Et Al. A Retrospective Overview of Amphibian Declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest
Toledo Et Al. A Retrospective Overview of Amphibian Declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest
Biological Conservation
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Amphibians are facing population declines and extinctions across the globe, and megadiverse Brazil is no
6th mass extinction exception. One of the global hotspots of amphibian declines is Brazil's Atlantic Forest (AF), an ecoregion that in
Amphibian declines the past covered over 1,300,000 km2 of luxuriant coastal rainforests. Reports of historical declines were
Atlantic forest
concentrated in the southern and southeastern sections of AF, however we now propose that these reports did not
Conservation
Disease outbreaks
capture the whole extent and complexity of historical amphibian declines. Here, we conducted a refined review
Ghosts of the past of historical amphibian declines that have been linked to environmental factors, climatic anomalies, and the
Lazarus effect emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We reviewed data on 169
Population recovery populations of 106 species that have undergone population declines in the southern and southeastern Atlantic
Forest, more than doubling the number of population declines reported in previous studies. These numbers place
the Atlantic Forest among the ecoregions with the highest rates of amphibian declines and extinctions globally.
We provide novel spatiotemporal information of amphibian declines, underscoring that the peak of declines
happened in 1979, and that population recoveries, when they occurred, often took over 30 years. Our analyses
indicate that the volume of field collections accessioned in museums over time matched temporal patterns of
declines and extinctions, which indicates that historical declines might have impacted a far larger number of
amphibian populations and species. Our review helps guide targeted management programs for amphibian
surveys and Bd surveillance with practical implications for conservation.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (L.F. Toledo).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109845
Received 23 August 2022; Received in revised form 26 November 2022; Accepted 2 December 2022
Available online 14 December 2022
0006-3207/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
L.F. Toledo et al. Biological Conservation 277 (2023) 109845
play an important role (Becker and Zamudio, 2011; Pounds et al., 2006). in a straight-line distance (see Smith and Green, 2005). Our classifica
Bd was described in the late 1990's (Longcore et al., 1999), but the tion was based on a stepwise system that followed the sequential scheme
fungus was linked to amphibian declines in Central America and below:
Australia even before its description (Berger et al., 1998; e.g., Groff
et al., 1991; Taylor et al., 1999a, 1999b). In Brazil, despite studies 1) Did the population decline?
reporting Bd infections in amphibians across several Brazilian ecor a. Yes = considered in the present study; proceed to question 2. In
egions such as the Atlantic Forest (e.g., Becker and Zamudio, 2011; this case we considered the first year that a multi-year population
Lambertini et al., 2021), Caatinga (Benício et al., 2019), and the Amazon decline was recorded; or the year of decline if data from multiple
basin (Becker et al., 2016; Lambertini et al., 2017), Bd was only recently years was absent (YOD); or the year when the last individual was
linked with historical declines and extinctions (Carvalho et al., 2017). deposited in a museum collection; or the last year when the spe
Recent studies have linked climatic anomalies with Bd-induced die- cies was detected in the wild; hereafter, last year observed (LYO).
offs in Brazilian amphibians, including droughts possibly inducing host Because YOD is the exact year when the decline started, or a year
aggregation and disease outbreaks near drying water bodies (Moura- very close to that, we chose to use it instead of LYO whenever
Campos et al., 2021). Furthermore, temperature increases have been possible.
linked to higher Bd loads and mortality in Brazilian frogs both under b. No = not considered in the present study.
laboratory (Neely et al., 2021) and natural settings (Rebouças et al., 2) Did the population disappear? (Individuals of that species could not
2021). Modeling analyses predict a reduction in habitat suitability for be found in the site where it previously occurred).
several Brazilian amphibian species (e.g., Costa et al., 2012; Haddad a. Yes = meaning that no individuals could be detected in the wild
et al., 2008; Zellmer et al., 2020), including those caused by sea-level despite subsequent targeted sampling events with significant
rise (de Oliveira et al., 2016a, 2016b), ultimately altering host den effort in that site. Proceed to question 3.
sity, community-level interactions (Gomes-Mello et al., 2021), and b. No = meaning that the number of individuals reduced consider
pathogen transmission. ably, but at least a few individuals could be detected. Proceed to
The Atlantic Forest (AF) of Brazil has always been an emblematic question 4.
ecoregion due to its megadiverse amphibian fauna. Several studies have 3) Was the population rediscovered? (Individuals of a particular species
looked into multiple threats to the rich AF amphibian fauna (e.g.,Car were found after years where they previously occurred, but were
valho et al., 2017; Costa et al., 2012; Eterovick et al., 2005; Verdade missing for a given period despite significant survey efforts).
et al., 2012). Recently, Carvalho et al. (2017) conducted a thorough a. Yes = population rediscovered. For each rediscovered population,
retrospective survey of Bd in museum-preserved specimens and found we included the rediscovery date. In this case, we used the year in
that most of the 73 records of population declines (of 65 species) which the rediscovery happened, hereafter year of rediscovery
spatiotemporally matched clusters of Bd outbreaks. These striking (YORd); or the year of the first individual deposited in a collec
numbers underscore the likely vulnerability of AF frogs to chy tion; or first year that the species was observed since the past
tridiomycosis compared to other tropical regions (Scheele et al., 2019). decline, hereafter first year observed (FYO). When the YORd was
Expert opinion acknowledges that previous surveys underestimated the known, we used it instead of FYO. Proceed to question 4.
real number of population declines, especially in the southern and b. No = population missing.
southeastern Brazil, and a significant number of amphibian species 4) Did the rediscovered population or the declined population recover?
ended up not listed as endangered due to lack of data, including several (The overall abundance of individuals of that population recovered
IUCN Data Deficient (DD) species. For instance, Greenspan et al. (2018) to previous numbers).
already added (in their supplementary material) three terrestrial a. Yes = population recovered. In this case, we used the year in
breeding species (Brachycephaloidea) to the list provided by Carvalho which the recovery began; hereafter year of recovery (YORc).
et al. (2017). In the present study we reviewed multiple sources of data b. No = population not recovered.
to provide a more comprehensive picture of the past amphibian declines
in the south and southeast political regions of Brazil where most records A summary of the historical notes on each population, including data
of amphibian declines were reported (e.g., Carvalho et al., 2017; on collection voucher specimens, references, and personal communi
Greenspan et al., 2018; Heyer et al., 1988; Weygoldt, 1989). We also cations are reported in Table S1. This dataset will be a valuable
reviewed data on recent population recoveries or rediscoveries, which contribution to future ecological studies testing the impacts of global
could improve our understanding of the underlying causes of past change stressors on disease emergence and amphibian community
amphibian die-offs and provide a baseline for understanding amphibian resilience.
community resilience and management. We acknowledge that some of the populations we considered in
Table S1 could be influenced by some different source of errors. For
2. Methodsb.2)b.3)b.4)b. example, if the specific site of the population was unknown for a long
time, or incorrectly assigned in the original records, an increased time-
We summarized records of declines and extinctions of Atlantic Forest lag for its rediscovery or a perception of decline could have been
amphibians up until the year of 2020. We included records from compromised. In order to account for that, we made a separate set of
southeastern and southern Brazil: states of Espírito Santo (ES), Minas analyses without those species (n = 23 species; ~13 % of the total
Gerais (MG), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), São Paulo (SP), Paraná (PR), Santa dataset) for which we did not have the precise locality of its original
Catarina (SC), and Rio Grande do Sul (RS) – as these states combined population (only the municipality centroid for example), or we are
encompass the area where most of the past declines occurred (Carvalho confident that the geographic coordinates were incorrect (such as those
et al., 2017). Within this region, we i) reviewed primary literature and locations that had their type locality corrected). Additionally, as
dissertations from university repositories, summarized accession data different species have different detectability or some individuals could
from museum collections (using available information from the online have been misidentified in museum records, we did another set of an
database SpeciesLink, added to the data directly from the curatorship of alyses excluding 15 % (which was set to be a higher percentage than the
Museu Nacional), and ii) interviewed amphibian experts in Brazil to previous error estimation, in order to be more conservative) of the
identify populations that have declined or disappeared from the wild species, randomly selected, from the raw dataset. Both sets of analyses
(Table S1). In order to avoid data inflation by clumping those close range are available in Appendix I and their results are consistent with those
metapopulations into the same unit, we considered distinct populations obtained using the full dataset.
those of the same species that were at least 15 km apart from each other To highlight which taxonomic group declined at a higher-than-
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L.F. Toledo et al. Biological Conservation 277 (2023) 109845
expected rate if declines were evenly distributed across all anurans (Table S1). The families that had a relatively higher proportion of spe
sampled in the south and southeast Brazil, we calculated the difference cies that declined were Cycloramphidae, Hylodidae and Phyllomedusi
between the number of species that suffered declines within a family and dae (Fig. 3).
the estimated number of species that would suffer declines if they were The number of herpetologists holding faculty positions in the tar
evenly distributed across all families (Fig. S1). The deviation of data geted states increased over the years, reaching a total of 63 researchers
points (observed) to the predicted points was plotted in a ranked bar who were actively studying and collecting frogs in southern or south
chart. eastern Brazil as in 2014 (Fig. 4; Table S2). In general, the number of
In addition to the above classification, we compiled two additional collected specimens increased over the years, peaking in 2011 with
sets of historical data (up to 2020) as follows: i) the number of collected almost 4800 specimens sampled. Despite this general trend, there was a
specimens/year deposited in the main zoological collections of the south marked reduction in the number of specimens sampled in the 1970's,
and southeast Brazilian states (with the exception of Museu de Zoologia with the lowest number of individuals sampled (n = 239) in 1979
da Universidade de São Paulo – MZUSP, for which we could not retrieve (coinciding with the peak of reported population declines). After this
the data; Table S2) independently of species identity; and ii) the number period of declines, the number of individual frogs sampled remained low
of active and hired faculty herpetologists/year at Universities in the up until the year 2000 (for 21 years; Fig. 4A, D), when it started to in
same Brazilian states (Table S3). We used linear regressions to test for crease to levels prior to the declines of the 1970's (Table S2). This
associations between number of herpetologists and number of sampled pattern indicated the presence of three temporal phases: a) pre-decline
frogs per year. peak (before 1976): when number of faculty actively studying am
phibians was a positive predictor of amphibian collections (r2 = 0.35;
3. Results F(1,66) = 34.6; P < 0.001; Fig. 4B); b) decline peak (from 1976 to 1985),
when the largest declines were observed and the number amphibian
We compiled information of 169 populations of 106 amphibian specimens deposited in museum collections had a negative, non-
species that have undergone significant declines in the AF (Fig. 1; significant association with the number of active herpetologists (r2 =
Table S1). Among these species, 35 currently lack other viable pop 0.29, F(1,10) = 3.2; P = 0.111; Fig. 4C); and c) post-decline peak (after
ulations in situ or ex situ, and most populations that experienced de 1985), when again amphibians collections were positively associated
clines (n = 128) are still missing. Our data indicates that the peak of with an increasing number of active herpetologists (r2 = 0.79; F(1,29) =
amphibian declines in the Atlantic Forest occurred in 1979, and only 24 100.7; P < 0.001; Fig. 4D), which also included part of the 21-year
populations have recovered or have been rediscovered after that, with period when amphibian sampling remained low (Fig. 4).
an average of 33.8 years post-decline before recovery (Fig. 2; Table S1).
The taxonomic representation of species that declined was diverse, 4. Discussion
including direct developing (16 populations; 14 species; 2 families) and
indirect developing species (153 populations; 92 species; 10 families) Amphibian declines in Brazil have been recently analyzed and
Fig. 1. Distribution of amphibian declines in south (RS = Rio Grande do Sul, SC = Santa Catarina, and PR = Paraná) and southeast (SP = São Paulo, RJ = Rio de
Janeiro, ES = Espírito Santo, and MG = Minas Gerais) Brazil. Circle size indicates the number of population declines in a single site. Ecoregions are shaded in
different colors.
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L.F. Toledo et al. Biological Conservation 277 (2023) 109845
Fig. 2. The upper graph shows the number of populations that declined (in red) and that were rediscovered or recovered (in green) over the years. The dashed lines
enclose the decline peak. The lower graph indicates the number of populations that declined, classified in each of the three proposed decline progression categories.
For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.
discussed in both local and global-scale studies (Carvalho et al., 2017; there might be other populations to add to this list, our novel data
Scheele et al., 2019), but our novel dataset added nearly 100 records of emphasizes that amphibian population declines in southern and south
population decline to the existing data, doubling the original number of eastern Brazil were among the most severe ones observed in the tropics.
amphibian declines in Brazil's AF (Carvalho et al., 2017). Our data On the other hand, it is possible that some species were not detected
suggests that these alarming numbers could be an underestimation of over several decades because field herpetologists did not know the exact
historical amphibian declines in the AF. For instance, we are aware that sampling location, or whether species experienced declines, became
other populations (besides those reported here) of Allobates olfersioides rare, and subsequently experienced population recovery. Another
in the state of Rio de Janeiro are missing, but we were unable to retrieve possible shortcoming of our dataset is the heterogeneity in species
the specific dates of declines (as there was no available data for some detectability (Tanadini and Schmidt, 2011). There are evident differ
collected specimens), hindering their inclusion in our analyses. Thus, as ences in species conspicuousness in this study, which could increase the
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L.F. Toledo et al. Biological Conservation 277 (2023) 109845
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