Power

2025

Trends
THE NEW YORK ISO ANNUAL GRID
AND MARKETS REPORT

New York ISO

 New York ISO

THE NEW YORK INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR, INC. (NYISO)

is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the state’s
bulk electricity grid, administering New York’s competitive wholesale
electricity markets, conducting comprehensive long-term planning for
the state’s electric power system, and advancing the technological
infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State.

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ON THE COVER

This image is a snapshot of the real-time fuel mix captured

on April 22, 2025.

To learn more, read the “A diverse resource mix supports

grid reliability” in the Overview section or view the
Figure 22: Summer 2025 Installed Capacity and
Figure 23: Energy Production by Fuel Source pie charts
in the Appendix section of this report.

© COPYRIGHT 2025 NEW YORK INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR, INC.

Permission to use for fair use purposes, such as educational, political, public policy or news coverage, is granted.
Proper attribution is required: “Power Trends 2025, published by the New York Independent System Operator.” All rights expressly reserved.
 2025 POWER TRENDS

A letter

From
the CEO
On behalf of our team at the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), welcome to the 2025
edition of Power Trends. Our flagship report explores the issues and challenges shaping the grid of the
future based on the latest facts and data, information and figures.
The electric system is the backbone of our economy. It is essential to the health and safety of all
New Yorkers. Since the NYISO’s inception in 1999, protecting electric system reliability and evolving
competitive markets has been our top priority in the face of great change, whether it be societal, public
policy, or extreme weather. As older resources retire and new resources transform the way the system
performs, this commitment remains.
The electric system is undergoing rapid and instrumental change on a scale not experienced since
1882 when Thomas Edison first electrified the Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan.
The influx of intermittent, renewable resources, and the advance of storage technology is changing
the supply side. The building and transportation sectors continue the march toward electrification.
The swift development of energy-intensive economic development projects like semiconductors,
data centers, and hyperscale computing promises to change not just the electric system but society
as a whole. It is imperative during this period of transition that we maintain an adequate supply of
resources with the right performance characteristics to meet growing consumer demand for electricity.
This year’s Power Trends spotlights the uncertainty inherent in forecasting the adoption of
emerging technologies like electric vehicles and electric heating equipment. Equally challenging is
predicting the pace of development with regard to energy-intensive data centers and manufacturing
facilities seeking to connect to the grid.
To keep the system reliable during this period of uncertainty means our planning engineers are
running multiple models, with scenarios that provide outlooks for a range of possible outcomes.
Subsequently our planning and forecasting work at the NYISO has become more complex, but we
embrace this challenge to serve our mission and support consumers, investors, and policymakers.
What we do know with certainty is that as public policies drive more fossil generators into
retirement to meet decarbonization goals and tighter emissions restrictions, new carbon-free resources
are not being added to the grid fast enough to keep pace with expected demand growth. Meanwhile,
the traditional fossil-fueled generation fleet is aging, increasing concerns for their ongoing ability to
provide essential reliability services to the grid at a time when reliability margins are shrinking.

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Strong reliability margins enable the grid to meet peak demand and respond to sudden
disturbances and avoid outages. As these margins narrow, consumers face greater risks of outages if
the resources needed for reliability are forced out of service by policy mandates or failures associated
with aging equipment.
How do we address these risks in the short-term? As Power Trends highlights, we’ve recently made
enhancements to the interconnection process, the system by which the NYISO is required to study the
reliability impacts of new generation and large loads seeking to connect to the grid. Hundreds of wind,
solar, and battery storage projects are currently being evaluated under the NYISO’s new streamlined
process. New resources have been applied to improve the experience and make progress faster. We are
committed to moving these projects as swiftly through the process as possible while also evaluating
and identifying any reliability impacts to keep the future grid safe for consumers.
Power Trends also demonstrates how competitive electricity markets continue to provide the
most powerful vehicle available to align investments in the grid with reliability needs. During a time of
changing policy mandates, supply chain constraints, and economic uncertainty, competitive wholesale
electricity markets administered by the NYISO continue to provide superior cost efficiency and strong
investment signals for innovation while shifting that investment risk away from consumers. At the
same time, we recognize that the changing nature of the grid requires continuous enhancements to our
markets to ensure that the market signals drive the most reliable service and performance to benefit
New Yorkers.
As residents and businesses across New York become more dependent on electricity to power their
lives and livelihoods, the expectation for reliable electricity grows. A careful and collaborative approach
by all stakeholders is required for success across the broad range of economic and environmental
policies. To that end, we must consider all options for investing in the grid to provide for reliability and
certainty at the most efficient cost.
The addition of new dispatchable generation needs to be considered in the near term to mitigate the
dual risks of accelerated load growth and aging infrastructure. In addition to new conventional supply,
the repowering of aging, inefficient and higher emitting assets should be evaluated as a bridge to a lower
carbon future while delivering a more reliable electric system to support new economic development
projects. Repowering older, renewable facilities may also hold promise for needed capacity.
In short, every plausible option and opportunity to bolster both reliability and resource needs
should be on the table. All of us at the NYISO are committed to a continued strong partnership
with policymakers, market participants, and industry stakeholders to address these priorities and
challenges. Our promise at the NYISO is to always provide our independent, fact-based perspective and
expertise to assist in a reliable transition of the electric system. We are proud of that work and the role
we play in serving New York. We are excited for the future.
Sincerely,

Rich Dewey
Rich Dewey
President and CEO

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Contents
1 A letter from the CEO
4 New York's grid of the future -
overview
Large energy-intensive economic
development projects - 6
Reliability margins are declining - 7
Electric system reliability in winter is an
increasing concern - 10 38 On the Horizon
New York's generation fleet is aging - 13 next steps for the
grid in transition
A diverse resource mix supports grid reliability - 13
Enhancing the interconnection process - 14
The power of competitive electric markets
to support investment in the grid and state - 15

17 Planning for a reliable future grid

Reliability planning process - 17
Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) - 19
2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) - 21
2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) - 22
System and Resource Outlook (The Outlook) - 25
Interconneting new resources - 26
New, improved interconnection process - 27

29 Wholesale electricity markets

Competitive electric markets: 25 years
of reliability and economic efficiency - 29
Supporting economic development and
technological innovation - 29
Competitive electric markets benefit
39 Appendix
NYISO by the numbers
consumers and system reliability - 30
Energy Market - 32
Capacity Market - 33
47 Glossary
Ancillary Services Market - 34 Definitions and explanations
Market enhancements currently underway - 34 of terms and phrases

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New York's
grid of the future

Overview
The creation of New York City's electric system began in 1882 with the activation of Thomas
Edison's Pearl Street station. The invention marked the beginning of what would eventually become our
grid-based electric system, transforming the city and state with great speed.
Innovation and economic growth followed, bringing electricity for the first time to homes and
businesses, eventually leading to the construction of public transportation, high rise buildings, and
manufacturing.

Power Trends Key Messages

> Generator deactivations are > Repowering aging power plants > Driven by public policies, new
outpacing new supply additions. can lower emissions, meet rising supply, load, and transmission
Electrification programs and new consumer demand, and provide projects are seeking to interconnect
large-load customers associated with reliability benefits to the grid that are to the grid at record levels. NYISO's
economic development initiatives are needed to integrate additional clean interconnection processes continue
pushing projected demand higher. energy resources. to evolve to balance developer
Together, these forces are also flexibility with the need to manage
> New York is projected to become
narrowing reliability margins across the process to more stringent
a winter-peaking electric system
New York and increasing the risk of timeframes. New processes have
by the 2040s, driven primarily by
future reliability needs. been implemented to accelerate
electrification of space heating and
the process while protecting grid
> As public policy goals seek to transportation. On the coldest days,
reliability.
decarbonize the grid, fossil-fired the availability of natural gas for
generation will be needed for reliable power generation can be limited, and > The competitive wholesale
power system operations until the interruptions to natural gas supply electricity markets administered by
capabilities it offers can be supplied will introduce further challenges for the NYISO support reliability while
by other resources. Energy efficiency reliable electric grid operations. minimizing costs to consumers.
and Demand-Side Management Competitive wholesale markets are
(DSM) will continue to play a key role essential to a reliable, affordable
in reducing energy consumption, and cleaner grid of the future.
lowering costs, and mitigating
environmental impacts.

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Today, the electric grid in New York is undergoing a transformation. Driven by changes in public
policy, technological advances and economic development, the electric grid is in the midst of a
monumental change that promises a new set of challenges and opportunities.
Data centers, fueled by the rise of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, and
cryptocurrency mining activities, are becoming major electricity consumers. Electrification continues
to expand across transportation, industrial processes, and buildings and homes. The NYISO’s forecast
scenarios indicate that by 2030 demand could increase by an additional 1,600 megawatts (MW) to
nearly 4,000 MW due primarily to the combination of new large loads and building electrification.
With a robust resource mix, New York is home to more than 450 generating stations and 11,000
miles of transmission lines. The grid’s central function is to safely and reliably deliver electricity to
homes and businesses across the state. The electric grid powers our society, our economy, and supports
the health, safety and welfare of nearly 20 million residents. However, the forecasted growth in
consumer and industrial demand will need to be met with a similar growth in supply.
While stricter state emissions regulations have resulted in the exit of fossil fuel generation, and
the state continues to pursue efforts to comply with the state’s Climate Leadership and Community
Protection Act (CLCPA), forecasts for electricity demand are increasing. So too are expectations for a
more reliable grid.
High-tech manufacturing is expanding in New York. Several projects are underway or on the
horizon, promising to create thousands of jobs for New Yorkers while also highlighting the need for
large investments in energy infrastructure.
The challenge for policymakers and industry stakeholders is how to continue to power our society
and economy in a way that is reliable, affordable, and sustainable ― even while much of the clean
generation technologies mandated by state policies are weather-dependent and thus variable in nature.
The transition of the electric system presents a set of challenges that can only be solved through a
coordinated effort of industry, government, and stakeholders. Together, we must keep a careful watch
on how the electric system itself reacts and responds to this change. The reliability of the system is
showing strains under a mix of changing conditions and new pressures. Balancing the needs of grid
reliability with the growing amount of weather-dependent generation and increasing demand requires
careful attention to system data and information.

NYISO Independence and Transparency

Regulatory and reliability Shared governance Independence

organization oversight > This process engages > The NYISO is transparent, open,
> The NYISO serves New Yorkers under suppliers, transmission owners, and independent of its stakeholders.
the oversight of the Federal Energy consumers, environmental and We are a registered 501(c)3 not-for-
Regulatory Commission, the New York environmental justice interests, profit corporation. NYISO and its
Public Service Commission, the North and state organizations to directors, executives, and employees
American Electric Reliability Corp., facilitate the development of the are prohibited from having financial
the Northeast Power Coordinating rules and processes for a reliable interests in any company participating
Council, and the New York State and economically-efficient grid in in New York wholesale competitive
Reliability Council. New York. electricity markets.
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The NYISO’s mission is to ensure power system reliability and competitive markets in a clean
energy future. A core activity through which we serve that mission is to perform in-depth analyses of
power system data and then provide information on the changing electric system to all stakeholders.
This information is intended to help policymakers, developers, market participants, and
stakeholders make the most informed decisions possible. With a focus on system and resource
planning, efficient, competitive markets and grid operations, Power Trends captures much of the recent
work the NYISO has performed in fulfilling that role and responsibility.

NYISO's Powerful Purpose

MISSION VISION
Ensure power system reliability and competitive Working together with stakeholders to build the
markets for New York in a clean energy future cleanest, most reliable electric system in the nation

Maintaining Planning Operating Providing

and enhancing the bulk power open and fair wholesale factual information to policymakers,
regional reliability system for the future electricity markets stakeholders and investors

Large energy-intensive economic development projects

Large energy-intensive economic development projects are driving up demand for electricity.
Over the last decade, demand for electricity in New York has been relatively flat as energy efficiency
programs counterbalanced an increase in demand from homes and businesses across the state.
While recent demand forecasts have lowered expectations of how quickly electrification measures
are being adopted, the building and transportation sectors are expected to increase demand on the
system. Even as the expected adoption of electrification slows, economic development projects like
microchip fabrication and data centers are projected to be major drivers of load growth.
The number of new interconnection requests from large loads has grown dramatically in just a few
years. In 2022, six large load projects in the interconnection queue accounted for 1,045 MW. As of April
2025, there are 20 large load projects in the queue which would collectively add nearly 4,400 MW of
load to the grid. Load forecasters anticipate that as much as roughly 2,500 MW of that new demand will
be on the system by 2035. The increase in forecasted demand poses a major challenge to grid reliability
in New York.

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FIGURE 1: 2,567 MW OF EXPECTED DEMAND

FROM LARGE LOAD PROJECTS BY 2035 651

70
40

346
1,056
MW

129

275

As initially highlighted in our 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), some large load projects are
expected to have flexibility in the amount of power they need from the grid. More specifically, the 2024
RNA assumed that approximately 1,200 MW of demand from large loads can be reduced during peak
periods, which can provide an important reliability benefit.
The ability to shift load from times of greater system demand to times with lower demand or higher
renewable energy production could significantly reduce the amount of generation capacity buildout
required to serve demand. As discussed further, the NYISO’s wholesale electricity market design
includes demand-side programs which empower consumers to compete with suppliers to provide
reliability services to the grid, supporting reliability, affordability, and a clean energy future.

Reliability margins are declining

As traditional fossil-fueled generation deactivates in response to decarbonization goals and tighter
emissions regulations, reliability margins on the grid are eroding. Further, the remaining fossil-fueled
generation fleet, which provides many of the essential reliability services to the grid, is increasingly
made up of aging resources, raising further concerns about grid reliability.
Strong reliability margins enable the grid to meet peak demand, respond to sudden disturbances,
and avoid outages. They also support the grid’s ability to respond to risks associated with
extreme weather conditions. As these margins narrow, consumers face greater risk of outages if
the resources needed for reliability are unavailable due to policy mandates or failures associated
with aging equipment.

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The benefits of repowering

A change as monumental as decarbonizing our electric system can be challenging and unpredictable.
For instance, to achieve the mandates of the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection
Act, new, emission-free generating technologies must replace retiring fossil fuel-based generation.
However, these new technologies are not yet available on a commercial scale.
In addition, economic development investments, the likes of which haven’t been seen in New York
in decades, are driving a need for additional power. New data centers, chip fabrication facilities, and
even traditional manufacturing projects are arriving at a quickening pace.
So, what options exist in the short-term to transition the electric system, support economic
development, and achieve deep emissions reductions? One idea is the repowering of existing, older
fossil fuel power plants, or upgrading existing renewable generating facilities with new technologies.
Repowering can offer a bridge between old and new, the past and the future. It involves replacing
or upgrading existing components with new equipment that can increase power output, improve
efficiency, and aid the transition to cleaner energy sources.
Repowering is especially important to consider as we rely more on an aging generation fleet. With
many power plants in New York already beyond industry standards for their expected useful life, the
NYISO has raised concerns with future reliability. Upgrading our existing fleet not only can help with a
stepped approach to carbon reductions by replacing older, dirtier turbines with new, cleaner cutting-
edge technology, it also holds the potential for helping avoid future generator breakdowns, therefore
bolstering grid reliability.

Here's a more detailed examination of the benefits of repowering:

What it is
Repowering is the process of retrofitting and modernizing existing power plants, often focusing
on replacing older components with cleaner, more efficient, and powerful equipment that can provide
more energy and lower emissions.

Why it's done

• Increased efficiency: Newer technologies can generate more power with the same or even less
resources.
• Reduced environmental impact: Repowering can allow for a transition to cleaner energy
sources, reducing carbon emissions.
• Extended lifespan: By upgrading components, the overall lifespan of a power plant can be
extended, bolstering reliability.
• Cost savings: Repowering can be a more cost-effective solution than building a new plant,
especially when existing infrastructure can be utilized.

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Examples of repowering
• Fossil plants: Replacing older boilers or turbines with newer, cleaner, more efficient, cutting-
edge technology.
• Hydro power: This process often includes replacing turbines, generators, automation systems,
and hydraulic components to enhance the plant's performance,
• Solar power: Replacing older photovoltaic equipment and inverters with newer, more efficient
generating equipment.
• Wind power: Replacing turbines with greater capacity or upgrading older blades with more
efficient technology can improve energy yield.

The benefits
• Increased power generation: Repowering can lead to a material increase in the total capacity
of a power plant, something increasingly important as we observe declining reliability margins
across the state.
• Improved grid stability: Newer, thermal-based generating technologies can provide what’s
known as “voltage support,” which bolsters grid reliability and keeps the flow of electricity
steady along transmission infrastructure over great distances.
• Reduced environmental impact: Building large generating facilities on new sites can impact
existing ecosystems, infrastructure or even residential areas. Power plant repowering is a tool
in the energy toolbox that goes beyond emissions reductions, avoiding costly and possibly
disruptive new construction.
From extending the lifespan of existing infrastructure to enhancing grid stability and supporting
economic growth, repowering can provide a practical pathway or bridge for achieving lower
emissions profiles, and a more resilient energy future.

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Since 2021 NYISO reliability reports have noted that

DSM, Energy reliability margins are declining. In July 2023, the NYISO issued
a Quarterly Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) report
efficiency that identified a reliability violation in New York City beginning
in the summer of 2025, when several generation facilities
> Energy efficiency and Demand-Side
Management (DSM) play a key role in (commonly referred to as “peaker plants”) were slated to exit
reducing energy consumption, lowering the market due to stricter emissions requirements imposed by
costs, and mitigating environmental the state Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC).
impacts. After soliciting solutions, the NYISO received none that could be
installed in time or were sufficient to fully address the identified
> Energy efficiency programs offer
customers incentives to decrease overall deficiency. As a result, the NYISO identified the need to retain
electricity demand. DSM focuses on certain dual-fuel generators as the temporary solution for New
managing energy use through various York City’s Reliability need until the Champlain Hudson Power
strategies to optimize grid operations Express (CHPE) transmission line from Quebec to New York City
during times of peak demand. By is completed. CHPE is expected to enter service in the spring of
promoting energy-efficient technologies
2026 and, as the STAR report and other NYISO planning reports
and behaviors, DSM initiatives help
have highlighted, delays in that project could prolong the need
reduce overall energy consumption,
which in turn lowers electricity demand. to retain the peaker plants.
More recently, the 2024 RNA identified another Reliability
> Energy efficiency measures and
need in New York City beginning in summer 2033. The need
demand response programs can help
was driven by a combination of the legislatively mandated
individuals and businesses save money
on energy bills. Reducing energy demand deactivation of generating units owned by the New York Power
can lead to lower emissions. Authority (NYPA) by the end of 2030, forecasted increases
in peak demand, and limited new supply. To underscore how
> DSM also helps manage the flow of narrow reliability margins create uncertainty, the NYISO’s
electricity on the grid, ensuring a stable
most recent annual forecast update projects roughly 200 MW
and efficient power supply, especially with
the increasing integration of renewable less demand in New York City by 2035. The reduction reflects
energy sources. By proactively managing slower adoption rates for electrification technologies and is
demand, DSM can also minimize the need enough to eliminate the Reliability need identified in the 2024
for costly infrastructure upgrades and RNA. But while the Reliability need no longer exists, significant
promote a more efficient and sustainable uncertainties associated with future demand growth and
energy system.
the changing supply mix could result in the identification of
reliability needs in the future.

Electric system reliability in winter is an increasing concern

Issues associated with maintaining grid reliability during the winter months are expected to
become more acute in the coming years. As severe winter weather events, such as Winter Storm Elliott,
demonstrated, the connection between fuel security and grid reliability is an important topic that
requires more attention and discussion.
While New York’s electric grid is still currently a summer-peaking system, the state will in the
coming years see electricity demand reach its highest points in colder months. Winter demand is
expected to grow by approximately 14,000 MW by the year 2040.
Historically, investments have been made to meet high summer demand, which is driven primarily
by air conditioning use, especially during prolonged heat. As more consumers rely on the electric system

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to meet space heating needs, however, the NYISO must ensure the grid is prepared to supply winter
peak periods reliably under various conditions.
Current statewide reliability margins in winter are sufficient. However, if gas-fired generators
cannot secure fuel during peak winter demand periods, statewide deficiencies could arise as soon as
winter 2029-2030 under normal weather conditions. Considering higher demand growth or extreme
winter weather conditions, deficiencies may happen years earlier.
For health and safety reasons, FIGURE 2: EXPECTED IMPACT OF ELECTRIFICATION
natural gas is prioritized for ON STATEWIDE WINTER PEAK DEMAND
residential consumers to heat their
homes in the winter. As a result, 45,000
winter-time gas constraints affect all MW
generators that rely on natural gas.
The impact is mitigated for
dual-fuel units, which can switch 35,000
Building
to oil as a backup fuel when gas Electrification
demand is high or gas supply is
otherwise constrained. 25,000 EV Demand
With natural gas serving as the
primary fuel for more than 60%
of the generating capacity in
15,000
the state, potential fuel constraints
can have serious consequences for Winter Demand
grid reliability. Most of the
gas-powered generation located 5,000
downstate is dual-fuel. This
0
flexibility supports system reliability
2025-26

2029-30

2034-35

2039-40

2044-45
during extreme weather events like
the recent polar vortex.
The state’s clean energy goals seek to decarbonize the electric grid by 2040, and natural gas will
continue to be necessary to maintain grid reliability during the transition period. Fuel security is also
critical for the ongoing electrification of housing and transportation, as gas-based generation helps
power heat pumps and electric vehicles.
With winter peak demand approaching summer peak demand levels within the next 10-15 years,
the winter reliability margin is shrinking, underscoring the need to more accurately account for winter
operating conditions in reliability planning models.
The New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC), which establishes rules used to assess grid
reliability, identified the need to model winter operations under conditions in which generators have
limited access to natural gas. A new rule, adopted in May 2024, seeks to model future winter system
operations under gas supply constraint conditions.
The rule is reflected in the findings of the NYISO’s 2024 RNA. In that report, NYISO planners
modeled the system with the assumption that 6,400 MW of gas-only generation will be unavailable
during winter peak conditions due to gas system constraints. This assumption contributes to the
forecasted narrowing of reliability margins across the RNA’s study horizon.

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Demand for natural gas drove electricity prices during 2024/2025
winter season
FIGURE 3: WINTER 2024/25 DAILY TEMPERATURE
As winter weather impacted
AND ENERGY PRICES
much of the nation, demand for
natural gas increased, leading to 100 $300
higher electricity costs for New Average Daily Temperatures

York consumers.
HIGH
80 51° $250
That’s because generators that Gas Price Electricity Price

Electric $/MWh
use natural gas in the production of $200
Gas $/mmBtu
electricity experienced price spikes 60
in fuel supply and factored those $150
increases into their production costs.
40
The NYISO administers $100
the state’s competitive markets
where the price of electricity is 20 LOW $50
established. The wholesale price 11°
of electricity can fluctuate month-
0 $0
to-month, influenced by several
12.01.24 01.01.2025 MLK Day 02.01.25 02.28.25
factors including market forces, Weekend
weather, and operating conditions.
The country’s pipeline network is a highly integrated system that moves natural gas throughout the
continental United States, with millions of miles of pipelines that link natural gas production and storage facilities
with New York consumers and power plants. The NYISO does not oversee the natural gas system.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), demand by residential and commercial
customers using natural gas for space heating rose significantly in January and February as severe cold weather
swept the nation.
As reported in the EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Report, released February 12, 2025, the January polar vortex
caused natural gas prices in New York to increase nine-fold. “Colder-than-normal temperatures across much of the
United States in mid-January increased natural gas consumption, resulting in the fourth-largest reported weekly
withdrawal from natural gas storage in the lower 48 states,” according to the EIA analysis.
Other elements that factor into electricity costs include the increased expense of maintaining aging power
plants, investments in much-needed transmission and distribution equipment, and investments in renewable
energy to support the state’s climate policies. Inflation has also contributed to higher electricity prices as the cost of
materials and labor has risen across industries.
While the NYISO cannot control these costs, we monitor market participants’ buying and selling behavior to
keep the electric system reliable and as cost-efficient as possible for consumers. The NYISO’s role is to oversee
the wholesale markets and ensure that buyers and sellers operate within the markets according to regulations
determined by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, other regulatory bodies, and state and regional
reliability organizations.
The NYISO’s market mitigation and analysis team examines data on market transactions and operating
behaviors of generating assets to verify that consumer prices reflect competitive market circumstances. If they
detect anomalies or a trend that raises questions, they can investigate and request additional information from
market participants.

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New York’s generation fleet is aging

A growing number of fossil-fuel generators in New York are reaching an age at which similar units
across the country have been deactivated. New York’s fleet of fossil-fuel-based generation includes
more than 10,000 MW, roughly 25% of the state’s total generating capacity, that has been in operation
for more than 50 years.
As these fossil-fuel generators age, they are FIGURE 4: ENERGY PRODUCTION FROM AGING
experiencing more frequent and longer outages. FOSSIL-FUEL-BASED GENERATION: 2024
Greater difficulties in maintaining older equipment,
combined with the impact of policies to restrict or 12,000

eliminate emissions may drive aging generators

GWh
11.4%
to deactivate, which would exacerbate declining 10,000 of total
in-state
reliability margins. Reliability concerns associated
generation
with the age and condition of New York’s fossil fleet 8,000
were underscored this past winter by the outages of
three units.
6,000
In addition to the concerning issue of
deteriorating performance of aging fossil-fuel
4,000
generators, the pace of generator deactivations
is exceeding the development of new generating
2,000
resources. Since the passage of the state’s 2019
CLCPA, 4,315 MW have left the system while only
0
2,274 MW have been added. This net loss of more 50-59 60-69 70+
than 2,000 MW represents enough capacity to Years Old Years Old Years Old
power roughly 2 million homes.

A diverse resource mix supports grid reliability

The most basic measure of grid reliability is resource adequacy, which measures if there is
sufficient generating capacity available to meet expected peak demand on the grid. But resource
adequacy is only one test of reliability. More than megawatts, resources powering the grid must
deliver certain capabilities to maintain reliability under dynamic conditions.
These critical capabilities include:
∎ Dispatchability: Resources that provide the real-time ability to turn on, off, increase, or
decrease output in response to changing conditions. Dispatchable resources offer highly
controllable, reliable, and predictable electricity supply.
∎ Flexibility: Resources that can be dispatched through a wide operating range with a low
minimum output.
∎ Multi-start: Resources that can be brought online or switched off multiple times throughout the day.
∎ Dependable fuel source: Resources that have secure, reliable sources of fuel that can be
brought online across a range of operating conditions.
∎ Non-energy limited: Resources that can provide energy for multiple hours and days regardless
of weather conditions.

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Most of these capabilities can be supplied by existing fossil-fired resources and certain
hydropower assets, which can respond quickly to changing conditions. While all resources supplying
the grid offer some of these capabilities, only New York’s existing fossil resources and certain hydro
generators deliver the full array of services needed to balance a dynamic grid. Despite the need
to reduce fossil fuel use to meet the state’s emissions reduction targets, some level of fossil-fired
generation will be needed for reliable power system operations until the capabilities they offer can be
provided by other resources.
Existing nuclear energy, in addition to being emissions-free, provides reliable, continuous,
predictable supply. Wind and solar resources lack dispatchability (producing electricity only when
wind and sun are present) and are considered energy-limited because they rely on fluctuating weather
conditions for their fuel. Battery storage, while offering dispatchability and dependability, is also
considered energy-limited because batteries can typically only supply the grid for limited durations
before needing to be recharged. Emerging nuclear technologies hold promise for added flexibility and
dispatchability, but the commercial availability of advanced nuclear designs is uncertain.
Even the capabilities of fossil-fired generators can vary. Generators fueled solely by natural gas
are subject to potential fuel disruptions due to pipeline constraints in the winter months. On the other
hand, dual-fuel generators that are capable of operating on natural gas or oil are less susceptible to
fuel disruptions and offer greater support to power system reliability in cold winter conditions.
In New York City and Long Island, most generators are required to maintain dual-fuel capability
and supply. Dual-fuel generation is particularly important for meeting downstate energy needs, where
it accounts for 74% of the region’s capacity. The availability and consistent contributions of dual-fuel
resources are necessary to maintain power system reliability in cold winter conditions throughout the
transition toward a zero-emission system.
Simply put, as New York seeks to retire more fossil fuel units in the coming years it will be
essential to deploy new energy resources with the same reliability attributes to maintain grid
reliability. Until new, non-emitting alternatives like hydrogen or advanced nuclear generation are
developed and commercialized, fossil resources are needed to fill an essential role in preserving
reliable grid operations.

Enhancing the interconnection process

The NYISO recently unveiled a new-and-improved interconnection process to accommodate the
large volume of renewable energy resources seeking to connect to the grid.
The NYISO is tasked with evaluating proposals in our interconnection queue to ensure projects
can connect to the grid without harming the system or imposing undue costs on consumers.
In August 2024, the NYISO launched a streamlined “Cluster Study” process for developers
consistent with regulatory reforms in FERC Order No. 2023. Under the new process, NYISO’s
interconnection team evaluates a large group of interconnection requests collectively rather than
individually, saving time and workload for the NYISO, utilities, and developers.
Key aspects of the new cluster study process:
∎ Expedites the interconnection process significantly.
∎ Provides more information to prospective developers, including a pre-application process and
physical infeasibility screens.

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∎ Emphasizes commercial readiness and incentivizes uncertain projects to exit the queue early.
∎ Establishes firm study deadlines for work performed by the NYISO and transmission owners
with consequences for missed deadlines.
∎ Integrates requests from facilities that are 20 MW or smaller into the single, standardized
process.

In addition to these process enhancements, NYISO’s interconnection team upgraded the

online portal through which developers and utilities submit and access information on pending
interconnection proposals. This enhancement makes it easier to access project status information and
connect to NYISO staff.
In June 2025, nearly 240 project proposals were under evaluation in the NYISO’s initial cluster
study comprised almost entirely of wind, solar, and energy storage resources. Collectively, the capacity
of those projects totaled approximately 35,000 MW.
NYISO continues to engage with interconnection customer focus groups and other stakeholders
to develop additional interconnection process enhancements. These steps demonstrate NYISO’s deep
commitment to improving the efficient integration of new generation projects onto the grid.

The power of competitive electric markets to support investment in the grid

and state
Managing wholesale electric markets is a core responsibility for the NYISO. We are committed to
administering and overseeing the competitive electricity markets as the most cost-effective way to
attract and retain new resources to meet our reliability needs as we transition to a decarbonized grid.
For 25 years, competitive
FIGURE 5: EMISSIONS RATES FROM ELECTRIC GENERATION
electricity markets have provided IN NEW YORK: 2000-2024
New Yorkers with reliable, least-
cost power. Since 2000, the CO2 4.5 0.45
emissions rate in the power sector
decreased by nearly 45%. 4.0 0.40
NOx and SO2 Emissions Rate (lbs/net MWh)

Competitive markets produce

CO2 Emissions Rate (tons/net MWh)
3.5 0.35
real-time price signals that allow
power suppliers and flexible loads 3.0 0.30
CO2
to respond to the grid’s changing
2.5 0.25
needs. With ever-increasing SO2
intermittency, extreme weather, 2.0 0.20
and demand from electrification
and economic development, the 1.5 0.15
balancing force of markets is
1.0 0.10
essential.
Our market design team is hard 0.5 NOx 0.05
at work developing new tools and 0.0 0.00
programs to encourage investment
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

in resources that are fast-ramping, Sources: U.S. EPA, U.S. EIA, RGGI

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flexible, dispatchable, and emissions-free ― resource characteristics that are becoming increasingly
important for grid reliability.
NYISO market design innovations underway include winter reliability capacity improvements;
dynamic reserves to balance intermittency; advanced battery storage modeling; and a review and
analysis of the current Capacity Market structure. Each of these is discussed in detail under the
Markets section of Power Trends.
Economic development investment, the likes of which haven’t been seen in New York in decades, is
driving a need for additional power supply. New data centers, AI technology, chip fabrication facilities
and even traditional manufacturing projects are arriving at a quickening pace.
Wholesale electricity markets in New York send strong price signals to guide new market entry
and retain existing resources necessary for maintaining reliability. Wholesale electricity markets
also provide strong economic signals to attract generation that possess the specific characteristics
necessary for a more reliable, flexible, distributed, and dispatchable grid. In this era of rising costs
and supply chain challenges, competitive electric markets also provide the valuable benefit of shifting
investment risks away from the consumer and onto financiers and developers.
Repowering existing generation can help meet rising consumer demand, lower emissions, and
provide reliability benefits to the grid. Without investment in new dispatchable resources, grid
operators are increasingly relying on an aging fleet of fossil generation.
Achieving the state’s climate goals in an orderly fashion is a challenge given ever-changing market
conditions. A careful and collaborative approach is important as we strive to meet the goals of the
CLCPA and maintain a reliable grid. As residents and businesses across New York become more
dependent on electricity to power our lives and livelihoods, the expectation for reliable electricity will
also continue to grow.

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Planning
for a reliable
future grid

Reliability planning process

The electric system planning process is crucial for ensuring a reliable, safe, and affordable
electricity supply. It involves forecasting future demand, planning new generation, transmission,
and distribution infrastructure, and coordinating these plans to meet economic, reliability, and
environmental objectives. This process is essential for adapting to changes in energy sources,
technologies, and consumer needs.
The NYISO’s Comprehensive System Planning Process (CSPP) focuses on the impacts of forecasted
changes in supply, identifying future system needs before a possible impact to reliability occurs.
It has taken on even greater importance and complexity in recent years as the grid is impacted by
a confluence of public policy mandates, advancing technology and more frequent extreme weather.

NYISO Comprehensive System Planning Process

Reliability Planning Economic Planning Public Policy Transmission
Process Process Planning Process

Conducts Short-Term
Assessment of Reliability Develops the Identifies transmission
(STAR) and 10-year System and Resource needs to meet
Reliability Needs Outlook to identify public policy
Assessment (RNA) and economic investment requirements for
Comprehensive opportunities NYPSC consideration
Reliability Plan (CRP)

Evaluates and selects Conducts analysis and Solicits, evaluates,

transmission determination of and selects solutions
project to meet beneficiaries, who to meet needs identified
reliability needs must approve project by the NYPSC

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NYISO planners continuously study the electric system to identify and address changes that pose a
risk to reliability. Planners conduct short-term and long-term assessments of reliability. They evaluate
the system from an economic perspective, identifying investment opportunities that can support policy
goals and improve the efficiency of the grid. Further, NYISO planners evaluate transmission expansion
needs driven by public policies.

FIGURE 6: NEW YORK STATE CLEAN ENERGY POLICIES

ACHIEVED
2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

6,000 MW 10,000 MW 70% 6,000 MW ZEVs 9,000 MW 100% 85%

Distributed Distributed Renewable Battery Vehicle Offshore Zero-Emissions Reduction
solar solar energy storage sales mandate wind electricity in GHG
6,415 MW
as of 2024

The NYISO’s planning FIGURE 7: ACTUAL AND FORECAST ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND:
process functions in compliance 2024-2045
with FERC-regulated tariffs and
reliability standards established 70,000
MW
by NERC, NPCC, and the NYSRC.
The NYISO’s Reliability Planning 60,000
Process includes biennial reliability High-Demand
Scenario
planning reports focused on
50,000
identifying and resolving reliability Baseline
needs over a ten-year time horizon Forecast
through the RNA and the CRP. 40,000

The biennial long-term

reliability planning process is 30,000
Lower-Demand
performed in two steps, where Scenario
the even-year Reliability Needs 20,000
Assessment (RNA) identifies any ACTUAL USAGE
reliability needs and the subsequent 31,264 MW
10,000
odd-year Comprehensive Reliability
Plan (CRP) identifies the plan for
the planning horizon, including 0
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045

appropriate solutions to needs.

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Both planning processes evaluate the New York transmission system’s ability to meet established
transmission security and resource adequacy criteria and have procedures for identifying solutions in
their respective timeframes. As described below, transmission-security driven reliability needs were
identified in New York City in the short-term and long-term reliability planning processes.
In 2019, anticipating that the FIGURE 8: ADDITIONS AND DEACTIVATIONS SINCE 2019
pace of change on the grid was
increasing, the NYISO established a
Short-Term Reliability Process in its
Additions
federally regulated tariffs. Through & Uprates
this process, each quarter the NYISO 2,274 MW
issues a Short-Term Assessment of
Reliability (STAR) report to identify
reliability needs that may arise over
the next five years due to various
changes to the grid such as generator
deactivations, revised transmission
plans, or updated electricity demand Deactivations
forecasts. Should a reliability need -4,315 MW
be identified in a STAR, the NYISO
solicits for and selects solutions to
address the need. This approach
provides the opportunity to proactively identify reliability needs that may arise due to changes to the
grid from generator deactivations, transmission availability, and updated electric demand forecasts.

Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR)

The 2023 Quarter 2 STAR (Q2) and the 2025 Q1 STAR are particularly notable because they address
specific reliability impacts and expected changes to future demand forecasts.
In 2019, the New York State DEC took steps to limit Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions and adopted
what has become known as the “Peaker Rule.” This resulted in 1,027 MW of affected fossil-fired
generators being deactivated or limited as of May 1, 2023, and an additional 590 MW expected to
become unavailable by May of 2025.
The 2023 Q2 STAR, issued July 14, 2023, found a reliability need due to a deficiency of up to 446 MW
within New York City beginning in summer 2025. The need was driven by a combination of forecasted
increases in peak demand and the assumed unavailability of certain generation in New York City
affected by the “Peaker Rule.”
The report identified the need based on a deficient “transmission security margin.” A transmission
security analysis tests the grid’s ability to withstand disturbances, such as electric short-circuits or
unanticipated loss of system elements (such as a generator or a transmission line) that can risk the
grid’s ability to safely and reliably deliver electricity from where it is produced to where it is consumed.
Per regulatory oversight by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the finding of
a reliability need initiates a process administered by the NYISO to bring reliability margins back to
acceptable operating levels.

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To resolve the reliability need, the NYISO determined that

The DEC the Gowanus 2 & 3 and Narrows 1 & 2 generation units, which
provide 508 MW toward meeting the identified deficit, are
Peaker Rule necessary to maintain reliability of the system. The NYISO’s
designation of these plants as necessary for reliability allows
> In 2019, New York took a bold
for their continued operation beyond May 2025 consistent with
step towards cleaner air and public
health with the introduction of the provisions in the DEC’s “Peaker Rule.” The continued operation
“Peaker Rule” by the New York of the Gowanus and Narrows units was described in the STAR as
State Department of Environmental a temporary solution until the CHPE transmission project enters
Conservation (DEC). This regulation service and fully addresses the need for the remainder of the
targets the state's oldest, most STAR’s five-year outlook.
inefficient power plants, requiring
that they meet stringent emissions The NYISO continues to evaluate the reliability of the system
standards. These plants generally in each quarterly STAR study to confirm if system changes mitigate
provide electricity during peak demand the New York City deficiency or require extending the permits for
times — think sweltering summer days the designated units to address such deficiency an additional two-
or frigid winter nights. The DEC rule year period beyond 2027.
mandated that these units make a
choice: invest in cleaner technologies, For the 2025 Q1 STAR, the NYISO evaluated the impact of
cease operations for certain times, updated forecasts and uncertainties in potential system changes
or shut down. or study assumptions. The following factors were evaluated
> Cost challenges: As power plants in the sensitivity analyses: updated New York City demand
navigate stricter emissions standards, forecasts, CHPE unavailability, heatwave conditions, accelerated
the transition is steering New York deactivations of the certain NYPA fossil-fired plants, unplanned
towards a cleaner energy future failures or outages of aging fossil fuel generators, and different
but also bringing its share of cost methods for determining the expected availability (or “derating
challenges. Since the rule went
factors”) of thermal generation units.
into effect and affected units have
shut down, noticeable increases in Some of the sensitivities showed improved reliability margins
capacity charges have been observed, while others showed even further risks. Considering the baseline
particularly during the peak demand results in the 2025 Q1 STAR and the heightened uncertainty of
periods of winter and summer. These future system conditions, the NYISO’s designation of the Gowanus
charges ensure power availability
2 & 3 and Narrows 1 & 2 generators to allow their continued
when it's needed most, bolstering
system reliability. Yet, amidst this
operation beyond May 2025 continues to be necessary to address
shift, the energy sector's adaptation to the reliability need identified in the 2023 Q2 STAR.
a cleaner mix of generation sources Through the quarterly STAR studies, the NYISO continues
is introducing a period of market to work closely with the DEC, the New York State Public Service
volatility, characterized by fluctuating
Commission (NYPSC), stakeholders, and the New York State
or increased prices, as we move
towards sustainability.
Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to
evaluate the reliability of the electric system, assess the continued
need for the peaker plants, and monitor progress by CHPE.

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2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA)

The RNA, issued biennially, evaluates the future reliability Planning Reports
of the New York electric grid considering forecasts of power and Studies
demand, planned upgrades to the transmission system, public
policy and changes to the generation mix over a ten-year period. > Short-Term Assessment of
Reliability (STAR): Conducted every
The RNA assesses an actionable “base case” set of assumptions,
quarter to assess reliability needs
referred to as “baseline assessment,” as well as various within a five-year horizon to determine
scenarios that are provided for information. whether the grid will be able to supply
The 2024 RNA closely evaluated risk factors, such as winter enough power to meet demand.
system conditions, the impact of large industrial and other > Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA):
energy-intensive loads, and anticipated generator deactivations Evaluates the reliability of the New
that could potentially lead to deficiencies in reliable electric York bulk electric system considering
service over the planning horizon. forecasts of peak power demand,
planned upgrades to the transmission
A key finding of the 2024 RNA was the increasing system, and changes to the generation
uncertainty about important system trends over the next ten mix over the next ten years.
years. Primarily among these trends are the development and
> Comprehensive Reliability Plan
flexibility of large loads and the impact of electrification and
(CRP): Integrates STAR reports and
electric vehicle adoption on the demand forecast. The RNA the most recent RNA, resolves any
provides a variety of plausible, if not probable, scenarios of identified reliability needs and develops
generation development over the next ten years that would a ten-year reliability plan.
result in positive margins, while also noting scenarios in which > System and Resource Outlook
reliability margins are degraded. (Outlook): The Outlook will provide a
The 2024 RNA continued to observe a declining statewide comprehensive overview of system
system margin due to increased demand, anticipated generation resources and transmission constraints
throughout New York, highlighting
retirements without adequate new generation addition, and
opportunities for transmission
the potential unavailability of natural gas during winter peak investment driven by economics and
conditions. A negative statewide system margin on its own public policy over a 20- year period.
is not a criteria violation, but it is a leading indicator of the
system’s inability to securely serve demand under normal
operations while fully maintaining operating reserves.
Additionally, state legislation enacted in 2023 requires the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to
deactivate certain of its natural gas plants located in New York City and Long Island. These retirements
would result in a loss of 517 MW. The new law authorizes NYPA to confer with the NYISO to determine
if the plants are necessary for electric system reliability.
The 2024 RNA identified a reliability need beginning in summer 2033 within New York City driven
primarily by a combination of forecasted increases in peak demand and the assumed retirement of
the affected NYPA plants. Accounting for these factors, the bulk power transmission system was not

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expected to be able to securely and reliability serve the forecasted demand starting in summer 2033
by as much as 17 MW for 1 hour and increasing to 97 MW for 3 hours in summer 2034 on the peak day
during expected weather conditions. However, updated forecasts resulted in a decrease in New York
City peak demand. Forecasted peak demand in New York City is now anticipated to be roughly 200 MW
lower than previous forecasts. While demand is still forecasted to grow year-over-year in New York City
driven by building and transportation electrification, increasing by 500 MW over the 10-year planning
period, the NYISO determined that the updated forecasts eliminated the reliability need identified in
the 2024 RNA.
While the reliability need no longer exists at present, the 2024 RNA noted uncertainties that could
affect the findings in future reliability studies. For instance, statewide reliability margins continue
to shrink over the next ten years, due to forecasted growth in demand coupled with retirements of
conventional generation that are outpacing renewable generation additions.
The 2024 RNA also continued to underscore the importance of the timely completion of planned
transmission projects — primarily CHPE — to maintain system reliability. The 2024 RNA highlights
that without the CHPE project in service by May 2026 or other offsetting solutions, reliability margins
within New York City may be deficient beginning in summer 2026.
The forecasted transition from a summer-peaking system to a winter-peaking system also poses
challenges to grid reliability. This shift, driven by the electrification of the building and transportation
sectors, is expected to accelerate over the next 10-15 years. Increased winter demand introduces
new reliability concerns, particularly around fuel availability for gas-fired generators. On the coldest
days, natural gas distribution companies prioritize residential heating and limit the fuel available to
generators without firm contracts. These coldest days also correspond to peak winter electric demand
periods when the gas-fired generation fleet is needed most.
As New York becomes a winter-peaking system, the gas supply to electric generation plants
is expected to be strained. On the coldest days, the natural gas distribution companies must serve
residential heating first and, when there is insufficient gas supply, limit the fuel available to generators
without firm contracts. These coldest days also correspond to peak winter demand periods when
the gas generation fleet is needed the most. As described elsewhere in Power Trends, the NYSRC
in 2024 revised its reliability rules to require the NYISO to plan for credible system conditions
that model anticipated winter peak load and the unavailability of generation with non-firm gas
contracts. Accounting for this new reliability rule in the RNA results in the assumed unavailability of
approximately 6,400 MW. The 2024 RNA is the first NYISO study to apply the new NYSRC reliability
rule. The specific modeling of gas unavailability is expected to be refined in future STAR reports and the
2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan.
Longer-term potential risks identified in the RNA may be resolved by new capacity resources
coming into service, construction of additional transmission facilities, increased energy efficiency,
integration of distributed energy resources and/or growth in demand response participation.

2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP)

The NYISO is expected to release the 2025-2034 CRP in November 2025. The CRP, issued biennially,
sets forth a plan to maintain a reliable bulk electric grid based on expected changes and forecasted
conditions over a ten-year planning period.

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The CRP will review the reliability margins forecasted from previous CRPs to identify the historical
trends and further investigate a variety of risk factors and plausible ways the system could change over
the next ten years. In consideration of increasing uncertainty about key system trends over the next ten
years, the CRP will also consider and analyze the following uncertainty factors:
∎ Aging generation: A growing amount of New York’s fossil-fired capacity is reaching an age at
which, nationally, the majority of similar capacity has been deactivated. By 2028, more than
6,500 MW of existing gas-turbine and steam-turbine based capacity in New York will reach an
age beyond which 95% of these types of generators have deactivated. The CRP will consider the
potential for additional generation retirements due to asset age and if resulting reliability concerns
can be mitigated by new renewable and other clean energy additions.
∎ Large loads: There is significant uncertainty about the recent trend of large loads seeking to
connect to the NYISO. This is a trend that system operators around the country are grappling with,
and the NYISO is actively coordinating with its peers to best capture the reliability impacts of
different types of large loads. For example, data centers potentially have very different operating
characteristics depending on whether they are used for cloud computing, AI, or crypto mining.
∎ Winter and extreme weather reliability risks: The CRP will continue to evaluate the evolving
winter reliability risks and extreme weather resiliency.
∎ Reliance on imports: Past studies have shown that future system reliability in New York is, in
part, dependent on scheduled imports and emergency assistance from neighboring control areas.
However, these neighbors are experiencing tighter margins for many of the same reasons as New
York. Consequently, there is a growing concern whether the NYISO can depend on these imports
when most needed.
∎ Delays in transmission: The NYISO will conduct analysis to highlight the reliability benefits
of certain transmission upgrades and risks posed by potential delays to the completion of
such upgrades.

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Interregional imports and exports support reliability
New York is at the center of
FIGURE 9: INTERREGIONAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS: 2024
a strong and expansive electrical
hub, with transmission pathways
interconnecting our grid to those in Hydro-Quebec

New England, Quebec, Ontario, and 3,616 GWh 1,899 GWh

the Mid-Atlantic.
These connections across state (IESO) Ontario New England
and national boundaries provide 234 GWh 12,782 GWh
valuable flexibility and reliability to
6,473 GWh 8,880 GWh
the greater electric system, allowing
New York to rely on neighboring PJM
power systems, if necessary, when our 1,516 GWh 21,533 GWh
grid is stressed, and demand is high.
The U.S. electric system has a long Source: 2025 NYISO Gold Book

tradition of coordinating operations to

enhance reliability and lower costs across regional boundaries. While energy can be traded across regions, the bulk of
electricity wheeled through New York is from transactions between Canada and New England.
Historically, New York and Canadian provinces have relied on each other to supplement their power generation
because demand tends to peak in the winter in Quebec, while the New York electric grid sees the highest electricity use
in the summertime. That dynamic flipped this past summer, however, when Canada’s drier-than-usual season reduced
its hydroelectricity production.
In addition to reliability benefits, economics plays a significant role in the amount of electricity traded between
regions. NYISO’s wholesale Energy Markets involve a competitive bidding process designed to ensure that there
is a sufficient flow of electricity at the least possible cost to consumers. Canadian hydroelectric power can be less
expensive to produce than electricity generated from other sources, making it a cost-effective option at times for
New York.
In recent years, regional power grid operators have worked together to expand access to resources and provide
electricity at an efficient price to consumers. For instance, New York’s Empire State Line project, a 345-kilovolt
transmission line serving Western New York, has facilitated greater utilization of electricity imports from Ontario,
while the CHPE project, which is in development, will deliver up to 1,250 MW of renewable hydro power to New York
City from Quebec.

FIGURE 10: SNAPSHOT OF NEW YORK'S ELECTRICITY IMPORTS AND EXPORTS: 2024
New York’s transactions with neighboring control areas can be tracked on the NYISO’s Real-Time Data Dashboard on our
webpage and annual import-export figures provided in the 2025 Load & Capacity Data Report (Gold Book). In 2024, New York
relied on roughly 38,785 GWh of energy imports to meet its needs and exported 18,148 GWh.

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System and Resource Outlook (The Outlook)

The System and Resource Outlook is the NYISO’s primary What is a DEFR?
economic planning report that analyzes how changes in supply > DEFR stands for Dispatchable
and demand will affect the grid of the future. The Outlook Emission-Free Resource. In the context
provides a wide-ranging assessment of future transmission and of energy and climate change, DEFRs
generation investment opportunities driven by economics and are emission-free resources that can
be reliably dispatched to provide
public policy.
both energy and capacity over long
The Outlook is not intended to fully assess reliability like durations. They are crucial for meeting
the RNA but instead identify potential future operational needs energy demands when intermittent
to facilitate a more reliable and decarbonized system in New renewable sources like solar and wind
York. It also differs from the STAR, RNA, and CRP reports in that are unavailable.
the Outlook evaluates the New York power system over a Here's a more detailed explanation:
20-year period. > Dispatchable: DEFRs can be turned
The latest Outlook, released July 2024, forecasts electricity on or off as needed to match energy
demand to increase by 50% - 90% over the study horizon demand, unlike some renewable
sources that are inherently intermittent.
driven by electrification of housing and transportation sectors,
and energy-intensive economic development projects. The > Emission-free: They produce no
Outlook found that between 100 and 130 gigawatts (GW) of greenhouse gas emissions, making
installed capacity will be needed to reliably meet forecasted them important for decarbonizing the
energy sector.
increases in demand while also meeting the state’s energy
policy mandates. Of that total, at least 20 GW of Dispatchable > Long-duration: They can provide
Emission-Free Resource (DEFR) capacity will be needed by power and capacity for extended
periods, unlike some short-duration
2040 to replace the current 25.3 GW of conventional fossil-
energy storage options.
based generation.
> Reliability: DEFRs can offer the
The Outlook notes that future DEFR technologies could
same reliability attributes as traditional
include (but are not limited to), long-duration batteries, small synchronous generation, which is
modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen-powered generators, important for grid stability. Examples
and fuel cells. No DEFR technology is currently available of DEFRs may include advanced
at a commercial scale. The Outlook notes that research, nuclear power, long-duration energy
development, and construction lead times of DEFR technologies storage, and certain forms of
renewable energy coupled with
may extend beyond the state policy timelines, requiring existing
long-duration storage capabilities.
generation to remain in operation to maintain system reliability
until adequate replacement options are available.
Finally, the Outlook highlighted that while historic levels of investment in the transmission system
have been made over the last decade, more is necessary to achieve public policy mandates and avoid
future possible transmission congestion. The Outlook shows that completed transmission projects
advanced through the NYISO’s Public Policy Transmission Planning Process and other state initiatives
have delivered significant benefits to the high voltage system and toward the achievement of state
policies. For example, the upgrades in response to the Western New York and AC Transmission Public
policy transmission needs have increased the ability to deliver power across the state, reducing
congestion at critical times of demand.

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The report also concluded that additional voltage support

Maximizing facilities must be added to the grid in upstate New York to fully
utilize the transmission capability already in place.
transmission
Interconnecting new resources
> To fully leverage the transmission
system’s capability as fossil There has been an unprecedented increase in the number
generation retires, additional dynamic of projects seeking to connect to the bulk power system since
reactive power must be added to
the passage of the state’s 2019 CLCPA. Through the NYISO’s
the grid.
interconnection process, major generation, transmission, and load
> Dynamic reactive power will improve projects are studied to assess the reliability impact they may have
the delivery of electricity from
on the electric system. The interconnection process is coordinated
renewable resources and help
by the NYISO but requires significant involvement by both the
alleviate congestion.
electric utilities and developers. Each party has an important role
> Potential technology options include to play, and success of the process depends on coordination and
various Grid-Enhancing Technologies
timely delivery of information by all participants. Through the
(GETs), including power flow
control devices, static synchronous interconnection process, as required by FERC, the NYISO seeks to
compensators, and synchronous balance the demands of open access to the electric system with
condensers. grid reliability while protecting customers from undue costs.
> This is especially important to the Transparent and robust rules for reliably connecting to
Central East Interface which plays the grid provide essential information for developers. Working
a key role in moving energy from closely with developers and affected utilities, studies identify
upstate generation pockets to necessary system upgrades and estimated costs to allow new
downstate communities.
resource developers to make informed investment decisions.
Costs identified as necessary to maintain reliability are borne by
developers and not consumers under the NYISO’s interconnection process. If electric system upgrades
are found to be necessary to maintain reliability, project developers, not consumers, are required to pay
for investments identified through the process.
In August 2018, the NYISO’s interconnection queue hosted 174 proposals. The queue at that
time included 26 proposals representing more than 8,400 MW of fossil fuel-based generation.
In 2025, the queue contains nearly 350 proposals, with nearly 50,000 MW of proposed clean energy
supply resources.
The NYISO must also perform a rigorous analysis of large load projects, like major manufacturing
facilities, data centers, and chip fabrication, that plan to draw substantial amounts of power from the
grid. Since 2018, the number of load-related interconnection requests have grown from just one project
with a proposed 500 MW load to more than 20 requests by spring of 2025, totaling nearly 4,200 MW.
It is important to note that, for various reasons, not all proposals in the interconnection queue are
destined to enter commercial operations. Multiple factors outside the scope of the NYISO’s control can
impact whether a project elects to move forward with the interconnection process, including the status
of siting and other regulatory matters, investment risks, and supply-chain concerns. These factors can
result in developers electing to defer or drop out of the process, even after the final interconnection
studies have been completed and interconnection costs have been allocated and accepted.

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New, improved interconnection process

In May 2024, the NYISO implemented new procedures to Interconnection
improve the efficiency and transparency of its interconnection
process. The inaugural cluster study commenced in August
Queue
2024, and more than 240 generation projects are currently > What is it?: A queue of transmission
advancing through the first phase of the cluster study — a and generation projects that have
submitted an interconnection request
crucial step and significant milestone toward integrating new
to the NYISO to be interconnected to
generation facilities onto the grid.
the state’s electric system. Depending
The new process, which expedites the interconnection on the level of proposed capacity, most
study process for developers, was developed in response to the projects must undergo three studies
regulatory reforms required by FERC Order No. 2023. before interconnecting to the grid.

The interconnection process requires significant > 174 proposals, 26 of which

coordination between utilities, developers, and state and local represented more than 8,400 MW of
governments. NYISO leads this process, ensuring that projects fossil fuel-based generation, were in
can connect to the grid without harming the system or imposing the queue in August 2018.
undue costs on consumers to upgrade the electric system.
> 350 proposals, with nearly 50,000
Overall, key improvements include: MW of proposed clean energy supply
resources, were in the queue in 2025.
Feasibility screen
> Since 2018, the number of
The new study process includes a customer engagement load-related interconnection requests
window that includes a “physical infeasibility screen” to have grown from just one project
determine early on whether there are any known issues with a proposed 500 MW load to more
than 20 requests by spring of 2025,
preventing a project from feasibly connected to the grid at its
totaling nearly 4,200 MW.
desired location.

Two-phase cluster study approach

The NYISO has transformed its study process into a two-phase “cluster approach” to evaluate a
large group of interconnection requests collectively rather than individually, saving time and workload
for developers, utilities, and NYISO staff. The timeframes set by the new cluster study process represent
a significant reduction from prior interconnection procedures.

Process changes to speed study time

The cluster study approach limits the number of “mid-stream” project modifications during the
interconnection process to help speed timelines and avoid the possibility of one project creating delays
for other projects looking to move forward within the cluster.
∎ The two-phase study includes several decision periods with commercial readiness deposits and
withdrawal penalties, to incentivize uncertain projects to exit the queue early.
∎ The study process includes firm tariff-mandated study deadlines for work performed by the
NYISO and utilities and tariff consequences for missed deadlines.

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∎ The two-phase study aligns the treatment of generating facilities 20 MW or smaller with the
overall process, incorporating all generation facilities into a single, standardized process.
∎ The new rules provide for additional pro forma documents and agreements to expedite the
interconnection process, the negotiation of required agreements, and the construction of
required upgrades.

A new interconnection portal

The interconnection portal is a digital platform where developers and utilities submit and gain
information on pending interconnection proposals and applications. The NYISO has made several
improvements to the interconnection portal to enhance the user experience and streamline the process.
These improvements include:
∎ Streamlined inquiry submissions: The portal now offers a more streamlined process for
submitting inquiries, making it easier for users to request information and assistance.
∎ Enhanced transparency: The portal provides improved transparency of project progress and
status, which helps parties stay informed about developments during the study process.
∎ On-demand access: Users have on-demand access to common interconnection questions, which
provide immediate answers to frequently asked questions.
∎ Ongoing technology improvements: NYISO has held numerous focus groups with developers
since 2023 to identify areas for improvement with the portal. NYISO continues to engage
with customer focus groups and other stakeholders to discuss and develop additional portal
functionality.
These steps demonstrate NYISO’s deep commitment to improving the efficient integration of new
generation projects onto the grid.

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Wholesale Electricity

Markets
Competitive electric markets: 25 years of reliability and economic efficiency
For a quarter century, competitive wholesale electricity
markets in New York have provided the foundation for grid Protecting
reliability at the least cost to consumers. Several advantages
derive from the strength of competitive electric markets that consumers
may go unrecognized amidst the consistent benefit they provide.
> The NYISO has a team of engineers
New York operates the high voltage electric system to and economists that review market
the strictest reliability standards in the nation. Competitive performance to make sure that prices
markets provide the underpinnings for reliability, attracting reflect market conditions, such as
fuel costs to produce energy. The
resources to areas of the grid where they can provide the most
NYISO can modify market participant
economic advantage.
offers if they do not meet competitive
Competition between generators incentivizes technological market rules that require that offers
innovation, economic efficiency and new, cleaner resources. As appropriately reflect supplier’s costs.
developers consider investment opportunities in the resources
> An independent market monitor
needed to supply rising consumer demand, competitive
evaluates the performance of the
electricity markets ensure the financial risks remain with the NYISO's markets each day to make sure
investor, rather than on consumers and taxpayers. market outcomes reflect strict market
And through extreme weather, public policy changes, geo- rules driving competition to serve
customers. The market rules and how
political events, and a shifting economy, competitive electric
they are administered are also subject
markets seek the lowest cost solution to meet consumer demand,
to review by the independent market
smooth price spikes, and provide certainty. monitor to make sure our market
design is as efficient as possible.
Supporting economic development and
technological innovation > FERC’s Office of Enforcement and the
New York State Department of Public
Service are active in evaluating markets
A robust electric grid is fundamental to any modern
and how they are administered. FERC
economy. New York’s economy is the eighth largest in the can issue penalties to entities that
world, requiring a continuous balance of reliable power for violate wholesale market rules.
manufacturing, farming, technology, public transportation,
and the health and safety of residents.
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The expert design of New York’s competitive electricity markets plays a crucial role in a more
robust and sustainable economy by providing strong economic incentives to attract cleaner and more
efficient generation that serves reliability and drives down costs.
To this end, the NYISO is developing new market designs to incentivize technological innovation,
investment, and lower costs.
Through the NYISO’s robust grid planning process we identify the developing and shifting
characteristics of the future grid. From these studies we modify electricity markets to ensure they are
well positioned to retain and attract the resources necessary to serve future demand and support a
growing economy and modern society.
We know from our planning studies that transitioning to a cleaner grid will require unprecedented
investment in new supply resources and infrastructure. We also know that technological innovation is
driving changes in generation resources and consumer demand.
Competition in established wholesale markets drives power producers to become more efficient,
thus lowering prices. And transparent market-based price signals stimulate necessary infrastructure
investment to meet reliability, the modernization of our grid and our state’s economy.

Competitive electric markets benefit consumers and system reliability

An instrumental component in developing transparent, market-based price signals is Locational
Based Marginal Pricing (LBMP).
LBMP is the price of electricity calculated at a specific location on the grid. It is determined by
various conditions such as supply, demand, transmission congestion, and weather. LBMP offers several
benefits to the grid and consumers in the form of accurate prices and grid investments that support
reliability.
As power prices fluctuate with several factors, LBMP ensures that electricity is priced efficiently,
taking into account local consumer demand, future reliability needs, and energy supply costs.
Locational-based marginal prices also work to attract and retain enough supply in the most beneficial
locations on the system at the most efficient cost to serve consumers reliably.
LBMP sends clear signals to generators and consumers about the true value of electricity at
different locations in the state and at different times on the grid. Upstate cities like Albany, Syracuse,
and Buffalo, for instance, experience unique weather patterns and have different local economies.
The Hudson Valley is distinct from the dense urban environment of New York City and suburban Long
Island. LBMP accounts for these regional differences and leads to accurate prices, better grid planning
and informed investment decisions.
LBMP also helps market participants make informed decisions about where to locate new
generation, storage, and demand response, maximizing overall system benefits. LBMP can minimize
financial risk and optimize site selection for generators looking to build and connect to the grid.
It provides accurate and transparent price signals, fostering innovation in the energy sector.

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Understanding the Difference Between Wholesale and Retail
Electricity Costs
Wholesale electricity pricing FIGURE 11: AVERAGE ANNUAL NATURAL GAS AND WHOLESALE
ELECTRICITY PRICES IN NEW YORK: 2000-2024
In New York, wholesale
electricity prices are determined $100

Average Annual Natural Gas Price ($/MMBtu)

$12

Average Annual Electricity Price ($/MWH)

through an open, competitive $90
$10
marketplace, where electricity is $80

bought and sold between suppliers $70

$8
and utilities. $60
$44.67
$50 $6
Demand for electricity
$40
contributes to the cost of electricity. $4
$30
Electricity demand is usually highest
$20 $2
in the afternoon and early evening,
$10
so costs are usually higher at these $2.20 $0
$0
times. The rules under which the
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024
markets operate are set through an
open and transparent governance
process. State regulators play an important role in this process, and all wholesale market rules are subject to
oversight by federal regulators.
The wholesale price of electricity reflects several external factors:
• Fuel costs: The cost of fuels used in electricity generation, such as natural gas, directly impacts wholesale
electricity prices. An increase in fuel costs can lead to higher wholesale electricity prices, as experienced during
the 2025 winter heating season.
• Supply and demand dynamics: As noted above, during periods of high demand or limited supply, prices can
surge. Lower demand can lead to lower prices.
• Transmission constraints: Limitations in the transmission network can cause price variations across different
locations, especially during times of high consumer demand.
Retail electricity pricing
Retail prices are the rates charged to end-use consumers by the utility delivering electricity to one’s business
or home. These rates are set at a level to recover the utilities’ costs of doing business, including the cost to purchase
or generate the electricity to serve consumers, the cost of delivering the power, and administrative costs. Retail
electricity rates are approved by the PSC and include several components beyond the wholesale cost of electricity:
• Supply charges: In New York, each utility procures electricity to serve consumers through purchases from the
wholesale electricity markets and direct purchases from suppliers. How each utility procures electricity supply
is subject to oversight by the NYPSC.
• Transmission and distribution costs: Expenses related to delivering electricity to consumers, including
maintenance of power lines and supporting equipment and infrastructure.
• Administrative and operational costs: Costs associated with billing, customer service, and other operational
activities of the utility or retail provider.
• Taxes and regulatory fees: Government-imposed taxes and fees that support state-sponsored energy
programs, resource development, and other regulatory requirements.
• Profit margins: Utilities include a profit margin to cover business risks, investment costs for new
infrastructure, and costs for maintaining aging infrastructure.

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Here’s a closer look at the benefits of LBMP:

Fostering innovation and competition

Market participants use LBMP data to make informed decisions about where on the grid to invest,
leading to a more competitive, efficient market for power generation. LBMP provides a transparent and
competitive market environment, encouraging innovation in areas like Distributed Energy Resources
(DER) and demand response, which can lower costs and support reliability.

Improved grid stability

LBMP helps determine which generators should run to meet regional demand and reliable
operating requirements but also considers transmission grid constraints to avoid overloads or
instability. This can lead to a more reliable and resilient grid, especially during times of high demand
or grid stress.
To meet the complex needs of managing the grid, the NYISO also operates multiple wholesale
competitive electricity markets that work together to achieve a reliable and efficient system. Each of
the NYISO-administered markets is interdependent, and supports system reliability in real-time:
The Energy Market secures electricity production to meet demand in real-time.
The Capacity Market secures commitments from suppliers to be available to meet seasonal and
annual resource adequacy requirements.
FIGURE 12: STATEWIDE RESOURCE AVAILABILITY:
The Ancillary Services Market secures SUMMER 2025
flexibility services from suppliers to
1,769 Import
maintain balance in response to changing 1,487 capability
conditions on the electrical grid. Installed
reserve 7,679 Demand
margin response
Energy Market
The Energy Market provides a
fundamental platform for utilities, large
consumers, retail energy providers, and other
load serving entities to purchase electricity
in the NYISO marketplace. Put simply, the Load In-state
forecast 31,471 37,699 generation
Energy Market provides a means for load
serving entities to satisfy the immediate
power needs of the customers they serve.
While some electricity is bought and
sold directly between suppliers, much of the
electricity consumed in New York is procured
through the wholesale electricity markets.
In these markets, suppliers compete to REQUIRED AVAILABLE
offer electric supply and Ancillary Services RESOURCES RESOURCES
necessary to maintain reliability. 39,150 MW 40,955 MW

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Every five minutes, every day, these markets select the

least-cost mix of supply to meet changing electricity demand
across the state, all while adhering to strict reliability standards.
Key benefits
After being selected in these auctions, suppliers deliver their of the IRM
services to the marketplace. Several factors influence which > Grid reliability: The IRM can provide
suppliers are selected for their services, including location, cost, enough capacity to meet peak consumer
and the amount of electricity flowing across the grid. demand, preventing disruptions on the
high voltage electric system.
Capacity Market
> Resilience: The IRM provides a
Our highest priority is to maintain reliability of the electric buffer against variations in demand,
system, and in keeping with our mission, we operate the unexpected weather events, or loss of
Capacity Market to meet resource adequacy requirements. generation capacity, ensuring a stable
The Capacity Market acts as a transparent and cost-effective power supply.
mechanism to avoid the danger of service interruptions and > Improved system planning: The IRM
outages. helps system planners determine the
Strict reliability rules require extra capacity to be available appropriate amount of capacity needed
to meet future demand and ensure long-
in excess of expected peak demand, so demand can be met
term grid reliability.
reliably when unforeseen events occur like transmission
or generation outages, or additional demand from extreme > Incentives for investment: The IRM
can provide a clear, efficient price signal
weather conditions. This requirement to maintain extra supply
to investors to build new resources and
among the pool of resources interconnected to the grid is called maintain existing generation to meet
the Installed Reserve Margin (IRM). The IRM is set annually rising demand.
by the NYSRC, with approval by FERC and the NYPSC, based
> Support for renewable integration: A
on reliability rules, annual peak demand projections, grid robust IRM allows for the integration of
constraints, and the makeup of the supply mix anticipated to intermittent solar and wind energy, by
meet demand. Developing the IRM is an extensive study process providing an incentive for backup power
that unfolds over much of the year to align requirements with to fill in gaps when renewable generation
reliability needs. is low or unable to produce power.

The IRM is based on updated load, resource, and

transmission models. It is derived by engineers, meteorologists, and economists, using strict reliability
rules, engagement with industry stakeholders, and oversight from regulators. Inputs include
information from NYISO such as changes in forecasted demand, supply performance capabilities, and
transmission system constraints.
Not every region in the U.S. uses this mechanism to support reliability for customers. For example,
Texas and California do not operate Capacity Markets. Due to a multitude of factors including the
challenges of coordinating the pace of renewable energy integration with the retirement of fossil
resources, both states are beginning to consider Capacity Market-like structures to address reliability
going forward. In 2022, the grid operator in California, CAISO, extended special contracts through
the end of 2023 with a handful of fossil-fuel power plants that were scheduled to retire. This type of
contract is only utilized in scenarios where concerns about availability of supply are very high, and the
risk of capacity shortages is significant.

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The NYISO’s Capacity Market provides built-in security to the marketplace for energy. The NYISO’s
Capacity Market ensures that supply is not only available, but also that the cost of that supply is as
competitive as possible for the benefit of consumers.

Ancillary Services Market

Ancillary Services refer to functions that help grid operators maintain reliability and the proper
flow and direction of electricity. These increasingly essential grid services address imbalances
between supply and demand, help avoid power system interruptions, and support recovery after a
power system event.
Ancillary Services are crucial for supporting grid strength by ensuring a stable electricity supply.
Electricity demand is highly dynamic, varying throughout the day and across seasons. They also
help manage these fluctuations by adjusting supply or demand in real-time, ensuring uninterrupted
electricity delivery. The critical services also maintain grid frequency and voltage, can provide backup
power in case of unexpected events, and act as the backbone of the grid, responding to fluctuations and
supporting power delivery.
Proposed improvements in the Ancillary Services Market include:
∎ The NYISO is working with stakeholders via our transparent shared governance process to
expand Ancillary Services products to better support reliable grid operations and help to balance
the intermittent nature of the anticipated renewable generation fleet. These products will help
procure necessary reliability attributes, at the lowest cost to consumers, balancing weather-
dependent resources to achieve a reliable future grid.
∎ In a clean energy grid of the future, a premium attribute of
energy supply will be its flexibility. We are working on several
Grid Strength market innovations that will attract flexible resources that
> The ability of an electrical power perform when needed and reward those resources that
system to maintain stable voltages can support balancing grid supply and demand. With ever-
and frequencies during disturbances increasing intermittency, extreme weather, and demand from
or changes in load. A strong grid electrification and economic development, the economic force
can handle larger fluctuations and
of markets is essential for maintaining reliability.
disturbances without significant
voltage drops or frequency deviations. Market enhancements currently underway
The NYISO's wholesale electricity markets continuously
evolve to address changing system needs and capture the benefits of new technologies entering the
grid, all while supporting reliability. Through ongoing, effective engagement with stakeholders and
policymakers, the NYISO continues to prepare the wholesale electricity markets of today for the needs
of consumers tomorrow.
Review and analysis of current Capacity Market structure

Early in 2025, the NYISO launched a complete review of the Capacity Market structure to determine
if alternatives or enhancements to the existing structure might better facilitate growing demand for
electricity while also meeting the NYISO’s regulatory mandate for maintaining reliability.

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For over 20 years, the current Capacity Market design has served system reliability well, driving
cost efficiencies, achieving emissions reductions, while retaining existing resources and supporting
additional supply. A review of the Capacity Market framework will help determine what, if any, changes
might be necessary moving forward. This review is timely in consideration of forecasted increases
in load, projected shifts in hourly peak demand, and new, large-scale, energy-intensive microchip
fabrication and data centers seeking to locate in New York.
In addition to the review, ongoing Capacity Market analysis includes a sharp focus on the future
performance of the electric system under winter conditions. More than half of New York’s current
generating capacity relies on fossil fuels to produce electricity.
The prospect of a future winter-peaking system introduces new
reliability challenges. It is critical to understand the risks these
NYISO Shared
shifts present for generators to procure adequate and secure Governance
fuel supplies on the coldest days. > The NYISO and its stakeholders utilize
Proper price signals must be designed to encourage a shared governance process to establish
participation from supply resources with firm fuel supply wholesale market rules and processes
associated with grid planning and operations.
arrangements. We are working with stakeholders to identify the
emerging winter risks and determine what market changes may > This process engages suppliers,
be needed to compensate suppliers for meeting these needs. transmission owners, consumers,
We will determine how best to incorporate changes into the environmental and environmental justice
Capacity Market structure so that the market properly signals interests, and state organizations to
the times of year that resources are needed most and properly facilitate the development of the rules and
processes for a reliable and economically
values resources that can contribute the most to reliability.
efficient grid in New York.
Any proposed changes in the Capacity Market must ensure
resources are valued accurately for contributions to reliability. Furthermore, the Capacity Market must
continue to deliver transparent, appropriate price signals to new and existing resources while achieving
predictable outcomes to maintain future reliability while driving value for consumers.
Dynamic reserves to balance intermittency
Renewable energy sources that are dependent on changing weather patterns present uncertainty
in forecasting the needs of the electric grid. The dynamic reserves framework the NYISO is pioneering
aims to address that, by strengthening grid reliability and ensuring a more efficient, responsive
electricity market.
Currently, the grid relies on fixed amounts of backup power to cover potential issues like a
generator failure or a transmission outage. However, as renewable energy sources like wind and solar
become more common, their output can fluctuate rapidly due to changing weather conditions.
These variables make it harder to predict exactly how much reserve power is needed.
The dynamic reserves approach attempts to address this problem by continuously monitoring the
grid in real-time and adjusting the amount of reserved production capability purchased based on the
most significant risks at any given moment. This seeks to ensure that there is always enough backup
power to keep the system stable, even if renewable energy production drops suddenly.

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Another key benefit of this new system is that it gives energy suppliers stronger incentives to be
flexible and respond quickly to changing conditions. It also sends price signals to suppliers that better
align with the true cost of maintaining grid reliability, and results in less volatility for consumers.
NYISO’s dynamic reserves proposal has already received strong support from stakeholders and
will be submitted to federal regulators later this year. Pending acceptance, the NYISO anticipates
implementing the first-of-its-kind dynamic reserve framework in 2027.

Advanced storage modeling

Coordinating the growing fleet of energy storage resources requires advanced modeling techniques
in day-ahead and real-time markets, and improved tools for grid operators to manage capabilities so
that these resources are deployed at the most effective times to meet New York’s reliability needs.
Efforts are underway to develop these capabilities so that energy storage resources, which act as both
load and supply and have limited-duration capabilities, are utilized in an optimal manner.
We anticipate deployment of enhanced tools in 2027, in advance of the state’s 2030 goals calling for
6,000 MW of energy storage capacity.

Balancing intermittency

The operating characteristics of the power system are changing with the introduction of large
quantities of renewable and duration-limited resources. The sudden loss of large amounts of energy
due to rapid changes in weather conditions and the uncertainty surrounding predicting how much
energy will be produced from these resources introduces operational challenges. These challenges will
require having resources on standby to provide energy when the availability of the renewable fleet
diminishes.
With new duration-limited resource technologies, it is important to define the duration needs of
standby resources, not just how quickly a resource could start. The balancing intermittency efforts
seek to expand ancillary service products to better account for resource and net load uncertainty in
reliability operating the changing power system. The project uses NYISO and relevant external studies
on the ramp and flexibility needs of the future to assess current and future standby resource needs
(operating reserves).
The current project will better define the standby resource needs of the system and establish
incremental procurement requirements. These enhancements are anticipated to be in place in 2026.
Additional phases will focus on identifying and developing new ancillary service products to maintain
reliability in a cost-effective manner.

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What are capacity factors and why are they important?

A generator’s capacity factor refers to how often a plant runs at maximum output. In theory,
a plant with a capacity factor of 100% runs at full power, full time.
However, no generating type operates at full power, full time. In reality, capacity factors vary
for several reasons, including weather, operating conditions, fuel costs, and necessary maintenance.
The relative capacity factors of different types of generation are critical considerations in reliability
planning and operations for the NYISO. Understanding the impact of capacity factors helps
determine future grid investment needs.
Lower capacity factors can be due to the intermittent availability of a resource’s fuel supply, such
as solar, and wind energy. Nuclear or hydro resources possess high-capacity factors, producing great
amounts of power most of the time. These resources provide predictability for NYISO grid operators
who must balance load with supply to meet demand as it fluctuates. The contributions of wind and
solar to the supply-mix changes with the weather, time of day, and the time of year.
A NYISO report on the state’s renewable resource fleet evaluated the growth and performance
of wind and solar resources over the last year to determine the average capacity factor for future
grid planning purposes. The inability to precisely predict energy output from these resources
requires other, controllable resources to be available to grid operators.
From an operational perspective, each resource has its own benefits and limitations. While wind
and solar resources cannot be dispatched like other generators on the system, they do produce
low-cost, emissions-free energy on the grid. This is an important issue to consider as the state
advances the goal of decarbonizing the grid by 2040 while striving to keep the system reliable for
all New Yorkers.
The following figure from the NYISO's 2024 Renewables Report reflects the variability of capacity
factors of wind and solar resources throughout the year.

FIGURE 13: MONTHLY WIND AND SOLAR CAPACITY FACTORS

40
Wind
30
Capacity Factor %

FTM Solar

20

10
BTM Solar
0
Jan-24 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

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On the

Horizon
next steps for the
grid in transition

For twenty-five years, the NYISO has proudly served as the independent administrator of the
competitive electric markets and operator of the grid. 2025 marked an important milestone, providing
a moment to reflect on a quarter century of success and dedication.
The future provides a different opportunity. And as the entity responsible for wholesale electric
system and resource planning it is more our nature to look forward, determining the most reliable path
possible for the grid.
New York State’s economy is dynamic. Significant investments from a range of manufacturing
and high-tech commercial interests provides for an exciting set of possibilities. Likewise, are the
possibilities for innovation of the electric system. To accommodate much of the new, energy-intensive
development we see on the horizon we will need the grid to be more flexible yet maintain a strong
diverse fuel and resource mix to accommodate for uncertainty in the demand forecast.
The NYISO’s more than 600 employees share a common mission: maintain grid reliability, deliver
electricity at the least cost through our wholesale markets, plan for an effective and efficient transition
to a cleaner grid, and serve as an independent and authoritative source of information for policymakers,
regulators, investors, stakeholders, market participants, and the public.
In that regard, the following are key, near-term planning objectives which will both influence and
reflect public policy decisions and the changing economy:

∎ July 2025: NYISO issues second quarter Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR)

∎ October 2025: NYISO issues third quarter Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR)

∎ November 2025: NYISO publishes its 2025-2026 Winter Assessment

∎ December 2025: NYISO publishes the 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP)

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Appendix
NYISO by
the numbers

Demand Trends

FIGURE 14: SUMMER AND WINTER PEAK DEMAND FORECASTS

50,000 > While electrification will

MW drive growth in winter peak
Winter Peaking System demand, summer peak demand
is not expected to grow as
significantly, due largely to the
40,000 saturation of electric-based
air conditioning for cooling
Summer Peaking System needs. The impact of large
loads is expected to drive near-
term demand increases while
30,000 electrification measures will
have more impact on
longer-range forecasts.

20,000

10,000
2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

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Demand Trends

FIGURE 15: ACTUAL AND FORECAST LOAD: 2024-2045

350,000 > This figure presents three

GWh scenario forecasts: a baseline
forecast that the NYISO assumes
300,000 is the most likely outcome based
High-Demand
Scenario on current observations and
assumptions, and two scenarios
250,000
Baseline that include differing assumptions
Forecast about key inputs in the forecast,
200,000 including economic activity and
the adoption of electrification.
These High-Demand and Low-
150,000 Demand scenarios provide bounds
Lower-Demand around the baseline forecast.
Scenario
100,000
ACTUAL USAGE
151,556 GWh
50,000

0
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045

FIGURE 16: CURRENT HOURLY DEMAND VS. HOURLY FUTURE DEMAND FORECAST

50,000 > This figure shows the

MW
average hourly demand for
45,000
peak days in the summer
40,000 and winter 2024-25 as well
35,000 as projected high-demand
days 20 years in the future.
30,000 Electrification will contribute
25,000 to increased demand, with
winter demand expected
20,000
to roughly double. Summer
15,000 demand will also grow, but
10,000 to a lesser degree. Summer
peaks are expected to occur
5,000 later in the day with the
Summer 2025 Summer 2045 Winter 2025-26 Winter 2045-46
0 continued growth of behind-
the-meter solar resources.
6:00 6:00
MIDNIGHT AM NOON PM MIDNIGHT

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Demand Trends

FIGURE 17: LARGE LOAD SUMMER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY

38,000 > There is significant uncertainty

MW about large loads seeking to
connect to the grid, including
the timing and operational
characteristics of the new load.
36,000 The NYISO base case forecasts
Potential additional include large loads that are
large load demand expected to connect to the grid.
However, numerous additional
large load proposals could quickly
34,000
advance and come online within
the next ten years, creating
Expected large load demand uncertainty about their impact
on demand.
32,000

Baseline forecast without

large load demand
30,000
2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

FIGURE 18: THINNING MARGIN BETWEEN AVAILABLE AND REQUIRED RESOURCES

4,500 > The Installed Reserve Margin

MW
establishes minimum requirements
4,000 for installed capacity on New
York’s grid. Historically, New
3,500 York has enjoyed robust margins
between the capacity available to
3,000
the system and what’s required
by the IRM. With generator
2,500
deactivations and higher IRM
2,000 requirements due to growing
intermittent supply, the margin
1,500 between available and required
resources has narrowed to roughly
1,000 half of what it was in 2018. Wider
margins enable a more flexible
500 grid, where operators have more
options to address unexpected
0 conditions.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

41 New Y
2025 POWER TRENDS

Demand Trends
FIGURE 19: PEAK VS. AVERAGE HOURLY DEMAND

40,000 > The NYISO’s Capacity

MW Market supports reliability
Peak Demand
by ensuring that sufficient
resource capability is
available to meet expected
30,000
maximum energy needs.

20,000

Average Hourly Demand

10,000

0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024

FIGURE 20: EXPECTED IMPACT OF ELECTRIFICATION ON STATEWIDE SUMMER PEAK DEMAND

45,000
MW > While electrification will drive
growth in winter peak demand,
summer peak demand is not
expected to grow as significantly,
35,000 due largely to the saturation of
EV Demand
electric-based air conditioning
Building for cooling needs. The impact of
Electrification large loads is expected to drive
near-term demand increases
25,000
while electrification measures
will have more impact on longer-
range forecasts.

15,000 Summer Demand

5,000

0
2025

2029

2034

2040

2045

New
42 York ISO
 2025 POWER TRENDS

Supply Trends

FIGURE 21: NEW YORK STATE WIND GENERATION: 2004-2024

6,500 > 2024 marked the

GWh inaugural year for offshore
Land-based Wind Offshore Wind 191
wind energy production in
5,500 New York State, with the
integration of the 132 MW
South Fork Wind project off
4,500 the coast of Long Island.

3,500

2,500

1,500

500
2008 1,282
2009 2,108
2010 2,533
2011 2,787
2012 3,060
2013 3,541
2014 3,986
2015 3,984
2016 3,943
2017 4,219
2018 3,985
2019 4,454
2020 4,162
2021 4,111
2022 4,825
2023 4,816
2024 6,012
2006 518
2007 873

112 101
2004
2005

43 New Y
2025 POWER TRENDS

Supply Trends

FIGURE 22: SUMMER 2025 INSTALLED CAPACITY BY FUEL SOURCE

NYCA Summer Installed Capacity, 2025

<1%
1%
2% 5%
4%

7%
MW
s
Zero-Emission

Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 18,642

Gas 4,624
Oil 1,922
Nuclear 3,326
11% Hydro 4,264 49%
Hydro Pumped Storage 1,411
Wind 2,586
Solar 573
Waste Energy 334
29%

Energy Storage 17
TOTAL 37,699
9%

12%

Upstate Summer Installed Capacity, 2025 Downstate Summer Installed Capacity, 2025
(Zones A-E) (Zones F-K)
<1% 1%
2%
6% 72%
12%

17%
MW
Nuclear 3,326 MW
Hydro 3,885 10% Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 16,927
Hydro Pumped Storage 240 Gas 3,160
-Emissions

Wind 2,454 Oil 1,102

Solar 219 Hydro 379
Waste Energy 126 Hydro Pumped Storage 1,171
Energy Storage 17 Solar 354
Gas 1,463 Offshore Wind 132
Oil 821 Waste Energy 208
Zero

Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 1,715 TOTAL 23,433

TOTAL 14,266
%

27% 24%
70

4%
5%
14%
2%

Zero-Emissions
1% 5%

New
44 York ISO
 2025 POWER TRENDS

Supply Trends

FIGURE 23: 2024 ENERGY PRODUCTION BY FUEL SOURCE

NYCA Energy Production, 2024

<1%
<1%

2%
5%

GWh
Zero-Emissions

Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 54,091

21% Gas 13,115 41%
Oil 92
Nuclear 27,073
3%
Hydro 27,936
Wind 6,012
Solar 503
2%Energy
Waste 2,230
TOTAL 131,052
48%

21%
10%

Upstate Energy, 2024 (Zones A-E) Downstate Energy, 2024 (Zones F-K)

<1% 1%
5%
Ze
10% ro-
83% Em
8%
iss
ion
s

GWh GWh 3%
Nuclear 27,073 <1%
Zero-Emissions

Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 53,520

Hydro 25,785
Gas 6,532
Wind 5,821 2%
Solar 64 41% Oil 69
Hydro 2,151
Waste Energy 731
Gas 6,583
5% Solar 439

Oil 23
Offshore Wind 191 10%
Waste Energy 1,500
Dual Fuel (Gas/Oil) 570
89%

TOTAL 64,402
TOTAL 66,650
39%

<1%

45 New Y
2025 POWER TRENDS

Supply Trends
FIGURE 24: HISTORICAL FUEL MIX FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION IN NEW YORK STATE

100% Other Renewables

Wind Solar
90%
Hydro
80%

70%

60% Nuclear
Oil
50%

Gas
40%

30%

20% Dual Fuel

10%
Coal
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

> The fuel mix of the resources powering New York’s grid has become cleaner over time, including
the elimination of coal-fired power plants, the growth of wind, and the emergence of solar.

FIGURE 25: SUMMER AND WINTER BTM SOLAR PERFORMANCE

Average Houry BTM Solar Production

25,000
MW

22,500

20,000

17,500

15,000

12,500
Average Hourly Winter Load Average Hourly Summer Load
10,000

6:00 6:00 6:00 6:00

MIDNIGHT AM NOON PM MIDNIGHT MIDNIGHT AM NOON PM MIDNIGHT

> New York’s policy incentives have driven significant investment in Behind-the-Meter (BTM) solar resources. By the
end of 2024 there were more than 6,400 MW of BTM solar capacity supplying customers. BTM solar energy production
reduces the amount of energy the NYISO must dispatch to supply the grid. More recently, the NYISO is seeing growth in
grid-connected solar that the NYISO dispatches to supply the grid whenever the resource is available.

New
46 York ISO
 2025 POWER TRENDS

Glossary
Definitions and explanations
of terms and phrases

Ancillary Services: Services that support the Cluster Study: is a streamlined approach to
reliable operation of the power system, which can evaluating interconnection requests for new
include voltage support, frequency regulation, generation projects. Instead of assessing each
operating reserves, and black start capabilities. project individually, it groups multiple requests
Behind-the-Meter Generation: A generation unit into clusters, allowing for collective evaluation.
that supplies electric energy to an end user on site. This method improves efficiency, reduces study
An example is a rooftop solar photovoltaic system timelines, and ensures better coordination
that primarily supplies electricity to the facility on among developers, utilities, and stakeholders.
which it is located. Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resource (DEFR):
Bulk Power System: The transmission network A resource designed to provide reliable,
over which electricity flows from suppliers to local on-demand electricity without emitting carbon.
distribution systems that serve end-users. New Unlike intermittent renewable sources like wind and
York’s bulk power system includes electricity- solar, DEFRs can be dispatched as needed to meet
generating plants, high-voltage transmission lines, demand. Many of the potential technologies are
and interconnections with neighboring electric still in development and may face challenges in
systems located in the New York Control Area terms of economic viability and scalability.
(NYCA). Also referred to as “bulk electric system,” Distributed Energy Resource (DER): A broad
“grid,” or “power grid." category of resources that includes distributed
Capability Period: Lasting six months, the Summer generation, energy storage technologies, combined
Capability Period runs from May 1 through October heat and power systems, and microgrids. A DER is
31. The Winter Capability Period runs November 1 generally customer-sited to serve the customer’s
through April 30 of the following year. A Capability power needs, but may, in some instances, sell
Year begins May 1 and runs through April 30 of the excess energy production, capacity and/or Ancillary
following year. Services to the power system.

Capacity: Capacity is the electric output that Electrification: Adopting technologies that support
a generator can produce. It is measured in the transition of fossil-fuel-intensive sectors of the
megawatts (MW). economy to electricity. Sometimes referred to as
“beneficial electrification” due to its underlying
Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act goals of promoting societal benefits through
(CLCPA): A law that requires New York to reduce emissions reductions.
economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 40%
by 2030 and no less than 85% by 2050 from 1990 Energy: Energy is the amount of electricity a
levels. The law establishes technology-specific generator produces over a specific period of time.
mandates for deploying clean energy technologies It is measured in megawatt-hours (MWh). For
as well as a Climate Action Council charged with example, a generating unit with a 1-megawatt
developing a scoping plan of recommendations capacity operating at full capacity for one hour
to meet these requirements. will produce 1 megawatt-hour of electricity.

47 New Y
 2025 POWER TRENDS

Energy Storage Resources (ESRs): Energy storage New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC): The
resources are devices used to capture energy council promotes and preserves the reliability of
produced at one time for use at a later time. ESRs electric service on the New York State power system
include technologies like batteries and pumped by developing, maintaining, and, from time-to-time,
hydro storage. updating the reliability rules which shall be complied
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC): with by the NYISO and all entities engaging in
The federal agency responsible for regulatory electric transmission, Ancillary Services, energy and
oversight of the NYISO’s operation of the bulk power power transactions on the grid.
system, wholesale electricity markets, and planning North American Electric Reliability Corporation
and interconnection processes. The NYISO’s tariffs (NERC): The not-for-profit international regulatory
and foundational agreements are overseen and authority whose mission is to assure the effective
approved by FERC. and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and
Gigawatt (GW): A unit of power or capacity equal security of the grid. NERC is the Electric Reliability
to one billion watts. Organization for North America, subject to oversight
by FERC and governmental authorities in Canada.
Gigawatt-Hour (GWh): A gigawatt-hour is equal NERC’s jurisdiction includes users, owners, and
to one gigawatt of energy produced or consumed operators of the bulk power system.
continuously for one hour.
Peak Load: The maximum power demand on the
Installed Capacity (ICAP): the capability of a electric grid measured in megawatts (MW). Peak
qualifying generator or load facility to supply and/or load, also known as peak demand, reflects the
reduce demand when directed by the NYISO. highest average hourly demand experienced on the
Installed Reserve Margin (IRM): The level of system.
capacity that must be secured, above projected Peakers: Fossil-fired power plants, also known as
system peak demand, to maintain reliability after peaker plants or just “peakers,” that generally run
accounting for unplanned and scheduled outages only during periods of high demand — known as
as well as transmission capability limitations. The peak demand — for electricity.
IRM requirement can be met through a combination
of installed generation, import capabilities, and Public Policy Transmission Planning: Part of the
demand response. The IRM is established by the NYISO’s Comprehensive System Planning Process.
New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC). Public Policy Transmission Planning consists of
two steps: (1) identification of transmission needs
Interconnection Queue: A queue of load, driven by Public Policy Requirements that should
transmission, and generation projects that have be evaluated by the NYISO; and (2) requests for
submitted an Interconnection Request to the NYISO specific proposed transmission solutions to address
to be interconnected to the state’s electric system. those needs, and the evaluation of those specific
Intermittent Resource: An electric energy source solutions. The NYPSC identifies transmission needs
whose output varies due to the fluctuating nature driven by Public Policy Requirements and warranting
of its fuel source. Examples include solar energy evaluation, and the NYISO requests and evaluates
which is dependent upon sunlight intensity, or wind specific proposed transmission solutions to address
turbines where output is dependent on wind speeds. such needs.
Load: A consumer of energy, or the amount of Resource Adequacy: The ability of the electric
energy consumed. Load can also be referred to as system to supply electrical demand and energy
demand. requirements at all times, taking into account
scheduled and unscheduled outages of system
Megawatt (MW): A measure of electricity that is
elements. A system is considered adequate if the
the equivalent of 1 million watts. It is generally
V1- PT2025 - 006.02.25 - ACCUPRINT

probability of having sufficient resources to meet

estimated that one megawatt provides enough
expected demand is greater than the minimum
electricity to supply the power needs of 800 to
standard.
1,000 homes.
Transmission Constraints: Limitations on the ability
Megawatt-Hour (MWh): A megawatt-hour is equal
of a transmission facility to transfer electricity.
to one megawatt of energy produced or consumed
continuously for one hour. Transmission Security: The ability of the electric
system to withstand disturbances, such as electric
New York Control Area (NYCA): The area under the
short-circuits or unanticipated loss of system
electrical control of the NYISO. It includes the entire
elements.
state of New York, divided into 11 load zones.

New
48 York ISO
About the ISO
The NYISO is subject to the oversight of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
and regulated in certain aspects by the New York State Public Service Commission. NYISO
operations are also overseen by electric system reliability regulators, including the North
American Electric Reliability Corporation, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, and the
New York State Reliability Council.
The NYISO is governed by an independent 10-member Board of Directors. The members
of the NYISO’s Board of Directors have backgrounds in electricity systems, finance,
information technology, communications, and public service. The NYISO is unaffiliated
with any market participant or government entity. The members of the Board, as well as all
employees, have no business, financial, operating, or other direct relationship to any market
participant. The NYISO does not own power plants or transmission lines.
The NYISO engages stakeholders in a robust and transparent shared governance process
that involves representation from a variety of interests, including transmission owners,
generator owners, public authorities and municipal utilities, large and small consumers,
and environmental advocates. Through open engagement and consensus building with
stakeholders, rules and procedures address our wholesale electricity markets, system
planning, and grid operations are developed.

POWER TRENDS 2025 is the NYISO’s annual analysis of factors influencing New York
State’s power grid and wholesale electricity markets. Begun in 2001 as Power Alert,
the report provides a yearly review of key developments and emerging issues.

POWER TRENDS 2025 DATA is from the 2025 Load & Capacity Data Report
(also known as the Gold Book), unless otherwise noted.

Published annually by the NYISO, the Gold Book presents

New York Control Area system, transmission and generation data and
NYISO load forecasts of peak demand, energy requirements, energy
efficiency, and emergency demand response; existing and proposed
resource capability; and existing and proposed transmission facilities.

The Gold Book and other NYISO publications are available

on the NYISO website, visit www.nyiso.com
 New York ISO
Independent System Operator

Learn more: www.nyiso.com/power-trends