Can Private Markets Be the

Alternative to Lofty Public Market

Valuations?
January 2025

Alexander Wright
Partner & Global Wealth Strategist

After two consecutive years of stellar performance in the KEY TAKEAWAYS

equity market and further tightening of credit spreads, public
market valuations are, as of this writing, well above their Public markets are expensive and concentrated:
long-term averages. Additionally, the US economy keeps firing Both public stocks and bonds are trading at elevated
on all cylinders and inflationary pressures remain, pointing to valuations, offering low risk premia. In equities,
an environment where interest rates will likely remain higher performance is increasingly reliant on a small group
for longer.1 This creates challenges for investors and poses a of mega-cap stocks, amplifying portfolio risks.
key question for allocation adjustments in 2025: What can Diversification is harder to achieve: The rising correlation
one do to enhance potential returns, improve diversification, between public stocks and bonds has practically eroded
and mitigate volatility? This paper discusses these critical the diversification benefits of the traditional 60/40
points in detail. portfolio, leaving investors more exposed to systemic risks.
First, let’s examine the challenges by taking a deeper look at Private markets can enhance portfolio resilience: Private
the current state of public markets. Take US public stocks, for markets can offer access to differentiated return drivers,
example: The historical relationship between the S&P 500 lower correlations with public markets, and opportunities
forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio and subsequent three-year to improve risk-adjusted return potential, which we
returns for the benchmark index shows that the current believe make them a valuable component of a broader
forward P/E ratio of almost 22 implies a 3% inflation-adjusted portfolio strategy, especially in light of high public
annualized return over the coming three years (Exhibit 1), well market valuations.
below historical averages of around 6.4%. While the S&P 500
delivered gains in excess of 20% in 2023 and 2024, the current
technical backdrop suggests a more tempered outlook for
the coming years.

1
 ee Sløk, Torsten, “2025 Economic Outlook: Firing on All Cylinders,” December 2024.
S
Available at: https://www.apolloacademy.com/2025-economic-outlook-firing-on-all-cylinders/

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

© 2025 Apollo Global Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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CAN PRIVATE MARKETS BE THE ALTERNATIVE TO LOFTY PUBLIC MARKET VALUATIONS?

Exhibit 1: The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 21.7 implies annualized 3% returns over the next three years
S&P 500

40
3-YEA R S U B S EQ U ENT A NNU A LIZED R ETU R N (%)

30

20

10

-10

-20
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

FORWARD P/E RATIO

Data as of December 2024.

Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

In addition, the risk premium for holding public stocks— Public credit markets also face tight valuations. Exhibit 2
the difference between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the shows how current spreads in different parts of the credit
10-year Treasury yield—is negative. As of this writing, the market compare to historical valuations, with high yield
index’s earnings yield (the opposite of the P/E ratio) has spreads currently near the lowest levels seen in decades.
dropped to 3.3% while the yield on the 10-year Treasury Importantly, spreads are tight not so much because of
was at 4.6%.2 In other words, investors are paying to take improvements in corporate bond yields, but because
risk as opposed to being paid to do so. government rates have gone up on the long end of the curve.

Exhibit 2: Public credit spreads in the US are near historical lows

Current market valuation versus history (100% = widest spread, 0% = tightest spread)
45%

33%

11 % 12%
7% 8% 9%
6%
2% 3% 3%

US HY B US HY US HY BB US IG Euro HY B Euro HY BB Emerging Leveraged Europe HY Leveraged Europe IG

Market Loans US Loans Europe

Data as of December 2024.

Note: US HY, US IG, US HY BB, US HY B, Europe HY, Europe IG, Europe HY BB, Europe HY B are from ICE BofA via Bloomberg. Emerging market USD spread is from
Bloomberg, Leveraged Loans US and Europe is sourced from PitchBook. HY = High Yield, IG = Investment Grade. Data for US and European investment grade and
high yield categories is from 1996; European leveraged loans data is from 2002; US leveraged loans is from 2008; and emerging markets is from 2002.
Sources: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist

2
As of January 17, 2025

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

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CAN PRIVATE MARKETS BE THE ALTERNATIVE TO LOFTY PUBLIC MARKET VALUATIONS?

The compression in credit spreads reflects a combination of High concentration continues to be a

heightened risk appetite among investors and the implications
major problem for public equities
of the recent US election outcome, which has bolstered
market sentiment. However, this dynamic also underscores a In addition to high valuations, the S&P 500 has become
critical challenge: tight spreads indicate that investors are not increasingly concentrated (Exhibit 3), with a handful of stocks
being adequately compensated for the risks they are assuming disproportionately driving market performance (Exhibit 4). As
in credit markets. This parallels the low risk premia observed in of the end of 2024, the combined weight of stocks with a 3%
public equity markets and suggests that the outlook for public or greater share in the index is at its highest level in decades.
credit is similarly muted.

Exhibit 3: The S&P 500 is heavily concentrated…

Combined weight of stocks with a weight of 3% or more in the S&P index

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

As of December 2024.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

Exhibit 4: …with a handful of large stocks dominating recent performance

2024 S&P performance

25%
20%

12 %

S&P 500 S&P 500 Return S&P 500 Return

Annual Return without NVIDIA without Mag 7

Data is from 12/31/23 to 12/31/24.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Bloomberg

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

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CAN PRIVATE MARKETS BE THE ALTERNATIVE TO LOFTY PUBLIC MARKET VALUATIONS?

To put this concentration in perspective, NVIDIA’s market cap Amazon, and Meta)—underscores the fragility of the current
alone rivals the size of the entire stock market capitalization market landscape, where performance hinges on a narrow
of many developed economies, including Canada, the UK, base of contributors. The bottom line is, investors in public
and France (Exhibit 5).3 markets are effectively over-leveraged to the earnings and
growth prospects of a handful of stocks. Diversification
In our view, this level of dependency on NVIDIA and a few
within public markets becomes increasingly challenging as
other stocks—such as the other remaining members of the
the concentration trend persists.
“Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet,

Exhibit 5: Public equity returns are all about NVIDIA

Market capitalization of NVIDIA versus total equity market capitalization of select countries

($, trillions)

6.2

3.4 3.1 3.1 3.0

2.4

0.7

Japan NVIDIA Canada UK France Germany Italy

Data as of January 17, 2025.

Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

NVIDIA’s market cap rivals the

entire equity market capitalization
of several countries, highlighting
the fragility of a market heavily
reliant on a handful of large
tech stocks.

3
As of January 17, 2025

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

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CAN PRIVATE MARKETS BE THE ALTERNATIVE TO LOFTY PUBLIC MARKET VALUATIONS?

Public stocks and bonds remain highly and a natural hedge within the traditional 60/40 portfolio
framework. But that relationship has broken down in recent
correlated years. For example, in 2022, stocks and bonds fell together
Adding to the challenge of elevated valuations and and in 2023, they rose together. Bigger picture, the three-year
concentrated returns is the rising correlation between public rolling correlations between stocks and bonds have reached
stocks and bonds. Historically, the negative correlation their highest levels in decades (Exhibit 6).
between these two asset classes provided diversification

Exhibit 6: Finding diversification in public markets has become more difficult

Rolling three-year correlations between stocks and bonds

0.8

0.6
C O R R E L AT I O N C O E F F I C I E N T

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

Data as of December 2024.

Note: Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index; bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

Private markets can offer the potential for Exhibit 7: 87% of US firms with revenues greater
ballast and diversification than $100 million are private
Share of public and private companies in the US,
High valuations, concentrated equity markets, and the
with revenue greater than $100M
convergence of public bond and stock performance have, in
our view, eroded the diversification benefits of a traditional
60/40 portfolio construction, leaving investors more exposed
to systemic risk, especially during periods of market stress.
Enter private markets. 13 %
By shifting allocations from public to private assets, investors
can gain access to an expansive and increasingly diverse
universe of investment opportunities. In fact, private markets
have become an increasingly important component of the
broader economy—87% of US companies with revenues
greater than $100 million today are private (Exhibit 7). At the
87 %
same time, the number of publicly listed companies in the US
has declined from a peak of more than 8,000 in 1996 to just
over 4,000 in 2024.4
PRIVATE COMPANIES PUBLIC COMPANIES

Data as of May 2024.

Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater than
$100M by count.
4
Sources: World Bank, WFE, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

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Within this growing space, we believe that the focus in 2025 The yield advantage in private credit
should be on private market strategies across equity, credit,
infrastructure and hybrid opportunities that can deliver We continue to see a clear and sustained delta between
tailored solutions and potential enhanced risk-adjusted credit spreads in the public and private markets—that is,
returns. In the remainder of this paper, we take a deeper investors can earn a premium for lending in the private
look at each individual opportunity. markets (Exhibit 8).

The maturing debt landscape has undergone a notable

The growing momentum of private equity transformation in recent years, driven by shifts in market
Private equity remains well-supported by a market hungry for dynamics and investor behavior. Unlike previous maturity
liquidity. Despite the “higher-for-longer” environment, rates walls, the 2024/25 cohort saw significant reliance on private
have come down from their recent highs and cheaper markets and innovative financial structures. Notably, over
borrowing costs could drive a surge in private equity deals as $40 billion in syndicated loans were refinanced through
sponsors aim to deploy recently raised capital and managers private markets since 2022, and distressed debt exchange
capitalize on improved valuations. activity reached a record $44 billion by the end of 2024.5
As 2025 progresses, we expect investors will turn their
The private equity secondary market, particularly GP-led
attention to the next sub-investment grade maturity wall, with
transactions—where general partners negotiate asset sales
over $620 billion of high yield bonds and loans set to come
with secondary buyers—has been the fastest-growing segment
due in 2026 and 2027.6 This suggests a large opportunity for
since 2018, driven by innovation and a slowdown in traditional
private credit to reprise its role as an alternative financing
exits like IPOs and M&A during periods of higher rates.
option for companies with upcoming maturities.
These transactions, which accounted for nearly half of
Additionally, we don’t believe that private credit is inherently
secondary market activity in 2022 and 2023, are expected to
riskier compared with public debt markets. Both can be risky
remain strong even in normalized conditions as they become
and “safe.” It all depends on which part of the risk spectrum
integral to the private market ecosystem. The evolving
one is investing. As we have written in a recent paper,7 the
secondary market can offer potential for attractive risk-
emergence of Private Investment Grade Credit (Private IG)
adjusted returns compared to other private market strategies.

Exhibit 8: BDC yields are higher than those of high-yield bonds

%

20

18

16

14

12

10

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

VANEC K BDC I NCOM E ETF I NDI CATED DI STRI BUT ION YIELD B LOOMB ER G U S C OR POR AT E H IGH YIELD IND EX YIELD TO WORST

Data as of January 2025.

Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

5
 ee Cortese, John; Bittencourt, Rob; Grewal, Akila; Gupta, Shobhit; Barak Harif, Tal. “2025 Credit Outlook: Defying Gravity,” January 2025.
S
Available at: https://www.apolloacademy.com/2025-credit-outlook-defying-gravity/
6
Sources: JPMorgan, Bloomberg, S&P/IHS Markit
7
 ee Cortese, John; Grewal, Akila; Gupta, Shobhit; Barak Harif, Tal. “Demystifying the Opportunity in Investment Grade Private Credit,” December 2024.
S
Available at: https://www.apolloacademy.com/demystifying-the-opportunity-in-investment-grade-private-credit/

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

6
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is opening doors for many investors to consider adding exchanges and payment-in-kind (PIK) alternatives. In these
private credit as a core component of their fixed income types of scenarios, hybrid capital can devise structured
portfolios (as opposed to being deployed peripherally in a, solutions—traditionally involving both debt and equity—that
say, “alternatives” bucket). Also, private transactions are can provide much-needed financing to re-structure the
generally negotiated on a bilateral basis and allow lenders company’s capital structure at more suitable LTVs of, for
to secure stronger legal and contractual protections. instance, 40% to 45%, all the while increasing borrower
resilience, improving interest coverage, and potentially
The rise of hybrid capital solutions enhancing downside protection for the lender.
Hybrid investments are emerging as an attractive solution As the 2026/2027 sub-investment grade maturity wall
within the private markets landscape, offering a blend of approaches, the addressable market for hybrid strategies
private equity and private credit characteristics. These is expected to expand significantly. We anticipate these
strategies combine multiple asset classes into holistic solutions will play an increasingly critical role in navigating the
solutions that aim to deliver returns between those heightened refinancing challenges, offering companies the
traditionally associated with private equity and credit. Hybrid flexibility to adapt while delivering attractive opportunities.
solutions may be “packaged” in distinct ways, however. We
see them falling into two distinct groups: Infrastructure: Building the future
Macro-level solutions: These include strategies that Private infrastructure has shown resilience in times of market
traditionally deploy capital across a variety of private markets, stress and provided downside protection with low correlation
including debt and equity, into one single portfolio. These to other major asset classes (as well as enhanced inflation
tend to have a return profile that is similar to public equities protection).10 In addition, there are powerful macroeconomic
but with lower volatility.8 We believe these strategies can be tailwinds bolstering infrastructure spending today, including
particularly attractive in the current environment, where lofty federal initiatives and the global need to update
public market valuations can fuel volatility in the coming aging infrastructure.
months. As we have written in a previous paper,9 these
The 2021 US bipartisan infrastructure law authorized
strategies also tend to exhibit higher correlation to inflation,
$1.2 trillion for transportation and infrastructure spending,
an important trait, in our view, in times of recalcitrant price
with $550 billion of that figure going toward “new” investments
pressures.
and programs. Although that sounds like a large sum (and
Micro-level solutions: These include strategies that it is), estimates suggest that the global need to update
traditionally invest in structured and bespoke solutions aging infrastructure shows an $88 trillion funding gap by
developed for companies seeking capital. For example, hybrid 2040,11 a void that will very much likely have to be filled
capital is increasingly relevant in addressing the capital needs by private capital.
of companies whose capital structures are inadequate for the
In particular, we see a broad opportunity set in digital
current higher level of borrowing costs. When seeking
infrastructure, where increasing computing power from
refinancing today, companies that borrowed heavily during
generative AI and related technologies is driving heightened
the long period of rock-bottom rates could see a significant
demand for data centers and electricity.
increase in their loan-to-value (LTV) ratios—say from 40%
to as high as 75%— sharply increasing the risks of distressed

8
See O’Mara, Matt; Black, Keith. “Beyond Beta: How to Use Alternatives to Replace Public Equity,” May 2023.
Available at: https://www.apolloacademy.com/beyond-beta-how-to-use-alternatives-to-replace-public-equity/
9
Idem.
10
See Sløk, Torsten; Lacagnina, Vittorio. “Infrastructure Investing: Embracing Complexity in Times of Structural Change,” March 2023.
Available at: https://www.apolloacademy.com/infrastructure-investing-embracing-complexity-in-times-of-structural-change/
11
Apollo Chief Economist, Global Infrastructure Outlook, Global Infrastructure Hub, 2020

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

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Conclusion
The 60/40 portfolio became the standard allocation for Additionally, with public equity market valuations at
investors for one reason: because it worked. The inverse historically high levels and bonds trading at tight spreads, we
correlation between high-performing stocks and lower- believe rebalancing into private markets becomes even more
volatility bonds helped the 60/40 portfolio offset volatility and attractive. Allocating prudently to private strategies across
produced strong returns for more than four decades. However, equity, credit, infrastructure, and hybrid solutions can not only
in today’s environment, elevated valuations, rising correlations mitigate the risks of elevated public market valuations but
between stocks and bonds, and concentrated equity markets also capture opportunities in an expanding and evolving
challenge the effectiveness of this traditional approach. investment universe.

Instead of reallocating 10% of a portfolio from one highly By rethinking traditional asset allocation and embracing the
correlated public asset class to another, the diversification flexibility and the potential diversity of private markets,
potential offered by private markets could be considered. investors can unlock long-term growth and resilience, which
Private assets can provide differentiated return drivers, can allow their portfolios to be well-positioned for the
lower correlations with public markets, and opportunities challenges and opportunities ahead.
to enhance portfolio resilience in periods of market stress.

As the 60/40 portfolio faces

challenges from rising correlations
and lofty valuations, private assets
can offer a potential pathway to
enhanced diversification, resilience,
and long-term growth.

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Alexander Wright is Partner and Global Wealth Strategist. Previously, Alexander

was a portfolio manager for Apollo’s closed-end funds, CLOs and private BDC.
Prior to joining in 2011, he was with GSC Group where he served in a variety of
different roles, most recently as Chief Administrative Officer, Chief Financial
Officer, and Head of US Corporate Debt. Before that, Alexander was with IBJ
Whitehall Bank & Trust Corporation and Chemical Banking Corporation.

Alexander graduated from Rutgers College with a BA in Political Science and a

minor in Economics and earned his MBA from Fordham University. Alexander
serves on the Fordham University President’s Council and is Chairman of the
Fordham Gabelli School of Business Alternative Investment Council.
Alexander Wright
Partner & Global Wealth Strategist

The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should
any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of
the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

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CAN PRIVATE MARKETS BE THE ALTERNATIVE TO LOFTY PUBLIC MARKET VALUATIONS?

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