RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR
Introduction
NATO's actions near Russia's borders and Ukraine's move towards the EU threatened Russia's
interests, leading to Crimea's annexation by Russia in 2014. This sparked a long-lasting war,
causing economic and political crises for both nations. NATO’s involvement worsened the
situation without securing Ukraine’s NATO membership, resulting in ongoing instability. The
once-close Russia-Ukraine relationship deteriorated over time, driven by NATO and the EU
influencing Ukraine to align with Europe, threatening Russia’s economy and security. This led to
the Russia-Ukraine war, causing widespread economic losses and suffering.
Current Scenario:
The ten-year Russia-Ukraine war has led to Russia occupying 17% of Ukraine's territory,
including areas near Kharkiv and towns like Avdiivka and Bakhmut. Ukraine's economy has been
devastated, with $152 billion in damage and a 30% GDP decline. The EU also faced economic
strain, with disrupted trade, inflation, and a €175 billion GDP loss. Sanctions from the EU, G7,
and others have weakened Russia’s economy, reducing its reliance on the EU from 30% to just
3%. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has not achieved NATO membership.
Key events leading to the Russia-Ukraine war include:
1. 2008 NATO Membership Plan: NATO considered granting Ukraine membership, which
Russia saw as a direct threat to its national security. NATO's military expansion towards
Russia's borders, particularly in Eastern Europe, raised tensions, and Russia warned
that any attempt to expand NATO to its borders would be viewed as a threat.
2. 2012 Ukraine-EU Association Agreement: Ukraine moved closer to the EU by signing
an Association Agreement, which aimed to align Ukraine's political, economic, and legal
systems with Europe. This conflicted with Russia's interests, especially due to Ukraine’s
control over pipelines vital to Russia’s energy exports. Russia warned that this would
damage their relationship and respond accordingly.
3. 2013-2014 Ukraine Political Changes: In 2013, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych
rejected an EU agreement to strengthen ties with Russia, sparking protests known as the
Euromaidan Revolution. The protests led to his removal from power and the rise of a pro
Western government, which Russia saw as a threat to its influence. In 2014, after
Yanukovych was ousted, Russia viewed the new pro-Western government as a direct
challenge to its interests and responded accordingly.
4. 2014 Crimea Annexation: Russia deployed forces to Crimea and annexed the region in
response to the political upheaval in Ukraine. The annexation followed pro-Russian
protests in Crimea and was justified by Russia for historical, cultural, and strategic
reasons. It marked the start of the ongoing conflict.
5. 2014 Donbas Separatist Movements: In the wake of Crimea's annexation, pro-Russian
separatists in Eastern Ukraine declared independence in the Donbas region. Russia
provided military support, leading to an armed conflict with Ukraine. This marked the full
onset of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Core Causes of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
1. Historical Context: The roots of the conflict lie in centuries-old historical ties and
disputes. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 left a legacy of unresolved ethnic,
cultural, and territorial issues. Ukraine’s strategic importance, due to its geographical
location and role as a transit route for energy supplies to Europe, has made it a focal
point of Russian foreign policy.
2. Political Motivations: Russia's political motivations in the conflict with Ukraine are
driven by several key factors. First, Russia wants to reassert its influence over former
Soviet states, including Ukraine, to maintain its historical and strategic dominance in the
region. Second, Russia aims to prevent Ukraine from joining Western institutions like
NATO and the European Union, as such moves would shift Ukraine’s political and
economic alignment away from Russia, weakening its influence. The expansion of NATO,
which brings Western military alliances closer to Russia’s borders, is seen as a direct
threat to its national security and its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.
3. GEOPOLITICAL INTEREST: Western countries, particularly the U.S. and the EU, are
committed to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and containing Russian aggression to
ensure stability in Eastern Europe. Ukraine also plays a crucial role in energy transit,
making it strategically important for the EU, while the ongoing conflict disrupts vital
trade routes and impacts global markets. The war has also triggered a revaluation of
global alliances, with countries shifting their focus towards Asia, particularly China,
considering the changing geopolitical landscape.
Devastating Impact on Pakistan
1. Economic Challenges: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has worsened Pakistan's economic
instability. The war has led to higher oil prices and inflation, putting pressure on
Pakistan's limited financial resources. Additionally, both Russia and Ukraine are key
suppliers of wheat and fertilizers, so the conflict has disrupted the agricultural sector in
Pakistan, making it harder for the country to meet its food and farming needs.
2. Strategic and Diplomatic Dilemmas: The conflict has placed Pakistan in a difficult
diplomatic position. Pakistan has historical ties with Russia but also has important
strategic partnerships with Western countries. Balancing these relationships has
become challenging, emphasizing the need for a careful and well-thought-out foreign
policy to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape. The war teaches Pakistan that it
must become stronger economically and less dependent on others.
US STANCE
The United States has strongly supported Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, providing military,
economic, and diplomatic assistance. The U.S. has imposed severe sanctions on Russia,
aiming to weaken its economy and pressure Russia to cease its aggression. Additionally, the
U.S. has supported NATO's role in deterring further Russian expansion.
At the same time, the U.S. has been careful in avoiding direct military involvement in the conflict
to prevent a wider war with Russia. The U.S. stance is based on promoting Ukraine's territorial
integrity, countering Russian aggression, and upholding international law. The U.S. has also
been advocating for European and global unity against Russia's actions.
UN ROLE:
The United Nations (UNO) has played a limited role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It has
condemned Russia's invasion, calling for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity to be
respected. The UN has also provided humanitarian aid through agencies like UNHCR and WHO
to support displaced people and those affected by the war. However, the UN's ability to take
stronger action has been restricted by Russia's veto power in the Security Council, limiting its
influence in resolving the conflict or enforcing peace.
ONGOING SITUATION:
Russian forces are targeting the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region to cut off
supply lines to Ukrainian troops.
Prisoner Exchange: Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner swap, with 189 Ukrainians
released in exchange for 150 Russians.
Russian Military Struggles:
1. Troop Deployment Issues: Russia is facing equipment shortages despite deploying
more troops and continuing operations into 2025.
2. North Korean Soldiers: Russia is reportedly using North Korean soldiers, but they are
suffering heavy casualties.
Conclusion
The Russia-Ukraine war has caused severe global instability, impacting economies, geopolitics,
and security worldwide. NATO's actions, Ukraine's shift towards the EU, and Russia's response,
including the annexation of Crimea, sparked the conflict. Despite extensive international
sanctions and support for Ukraine, the war has devastated both nations and created a complex
geopolitical landscape. Countries like Pakistan have faced economic challenges due to
disruptions in global trade, energy supplies, and food security. The U.S. continues to back
Ukraine, while the UN's role remains limited by geopolitical tensions. Ultimately, the war
highlights the need for diplomatic efforts, economic resilience, and regional cooperation to
address ongoing challenges.
