PERT/CPM

Critical Path Method (CPM) and

Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT) were both developed
in the 1950’s. The main difference
between PERT and CPM is their level of
certainty around activity durations.
PERT has three time estimated for each
activity while the CPM has just one.
 PERT uses three time estimates to find the range
for the duration of an activity:

➢ Most likely estimates (Tm)

➢ Optimistic (To)
➢ Pessimistic (Tp)

The calculation for PERT is :

Estimated time = (To + 4Tm +Tp)/6
𝟐 𝑻𝒑−𝑻𝒐 𝟐
Variance = 𝝈 = ( 𝟔 )
Activity Predecessors Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely Expected Variance
Duration Duration (Tp) Duration Duration 𝝈𝟐 =
(To) (Tm) (To + 4Tm + 𝑻𝒑−𝑻𝒐
( 𝟔 )𝟐
Tp)/6
A - 7 9 8 8 0.111
B - 4 8 6 6 0.444
C - 5 11 8 8 1
D A 3 5 4 4 0.111
E B 4 12 5 6 1.778
F C 5 13 9 9 1.778
G C 4 10 4 5 1
H E,F 7 13 7 8 1
I D 6 12 9 9 1
J HG 4 10 4 5 1
Activity Predecessors Expected
Duration
(To + 4Tm + Tp)/6

A - 8
8ത 12
D
B - 6 2 5
A 4 I
C - 8 17 21
8 9
D A 4 0ത 6ത 17 30
B E
E B 6 1 3 6 8
6 6
F C 9 0 11 17 H J 30
C F
G C 5 8ത 9 8 25 5
8 G
H E,F 8 4 5 7
I D 9 8 25
J HG 5

A-D-I = 8+4+9 = 21
B-E-H-J = 6+6+8+5 = 25
C-F-H-J = 8+9+8+5 = 30 𝐶𝑅𝐼𝑇𝐼𝐶𝐴𝐿 𝑃𝐴𝑇𝐻
C-G-J = 8+5+5 = 18
Activity Predecessors Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely Expected Variance
Duration Duration (Tp) Duration Duration 𝝈𝟐 = 𝑻𝒑−𝑻𝒐 𝟐
(To) (Tm) (To + 4Tm + 𝑻𝒑−𝑻𝒐 Variance = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
( 𝟔 )𝟐 𝟔
Tp)/6

𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛(𝝈) = ෍ 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

A - 7 9 8 8 0.111 Variance = 𝝈𝟐 = 1+1.778+1+1 = 4.778

B - 4 8 6 6 0.444
SD = 4.778 = 2.186
C - 5 11 8 8 1
D A 3 5 4 4 0.111

E B 4 12 5 6 1.778

F C 5 13 9 9 1.778
G C 4 10 4 5 1

H E,F 7 13 7 8 1
I D 6 12 9 9 1

J HG 4 10 4 5 1
 The critical path is considered the "mean
SD = 4.778 = 2.186 value" in project management because it
represents the longest sequence of tasks from
start to finish in a project, essentially indicating
If you want a 90% probability of the minimum time required to complete the
completing the project on time, entire project, making it the average or "mean"
time needed to finish the project if all tasks are
what would be the expected time
completed according to their estimated
would the project be completed? durations; any delay on the critical path directly
impacts the overall project completion time,
𝑋−𝜇 SD = 2.186 highlighting its central importance
𝑧=
𝜎 𝜇 = 30
𝑧 = 1.28
What is the expected time for the project to be completed
with a probability of 90%?

SD = 2.186
𝜇 = 30

𝑋−𝜇
𝑧=
𝜎

X= z𝜎 + 𝜇 = 1.28 2.186 + 30 = 32.798 ≈ 33

Therefore, the probability is 90% that the project will be

completed in 33 (time).
Developing Network Diagram
Critical Path – longest route in the network of activities
representing a project.
Earliest Event – earliest time an event is occurring.
Earliest Start (ES) – always equal to the Earliest Event
Earliest Finish (EF) – equal to its Earliest start plus its
duration
Latest Event– Latest time the event may occur without
delaying the project completion
Latest Start (LS) – Latest Finish minus Duration
Latest Finish (LF)– Latest Start plus Duration
Developing Network Diagram
Float– span of time can be delayed.
Total Float (TF) – the span of time an activity can be delayed
after its earliest time w/o delaying the project completion.
Free Float (FF) – span time an activity can be delayed after Early
start without delaying succeeding activities to begin their
earliest time
Independent Float (IF)– portion of the activities Free Float that
would remain if all preceding activities minus the duration of
activity in question.
Interfering Float (InF)– the span of time a task or activity can be
delayed without affecting the project's completion date, but it
will delay the start of a following task. It's calculated as the
difference between total float and free float.
Formulas

➢ Forward pass calculates the Earliest Start Times (ES)

and Finish Times (EF) , EF = ES+Duration

➢ Backward pass determines the Latest Start Times (LS)

and Finish Time (LF), LS = LF- Duration

➢ TF = LS - ES or LF – EF

➢ FF = ES(next task) – EF (Current Task)

 The activities, duration, and cost under normal
and accelerated conditions for a network diagram are
shown on the next page.
a. Determine the critical path of the project.
b. Determine the normal duration of the project.
c. Determine the normal cost of the project
Activity Node Normal Accelerated Normal Accelerated ES EF LS LF TF FF IF InF
Duration Duration Cost Cost
A 1-2 10 7 3,000 3,450 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0
B 2-4 8 6 2,600 3,400 10 18 11 19 1 0 0 1
C 1-3 6 6 2,000 2,000 0 6 5 11 5 0 0 5
D 3-5 12 11 4,800 5,100 6 18 11 23 5 5 0 0
E 2-5 13 10 3,900 4,500 10 23 10 23 0 0 0 0
F 4-5 4 3 2,400 2,700 18 22 19 23 1 1 0 0
G 5-6 2 2 1,800 1,800 23 25 23 25 0 0 0 0

0ത 10 18
A B EF=ES+D
1 2 4 LS=LF-D
10 8
0 10 19 F TF=LS-ES or LF-EF
E
C 4 FF=TF-SH
13
6 IF=FF-ST
6ത 23 25
D G InF=TF-FF
3 5 6
12 2
11 23 25
proceed to excel file
Precedence Diagrams

The precedence diagram is an extension of the activity-on-node format that

incorporates lag-time factors and permits additional precedence
relationships. Using lag time is very useful when diagramming construction
project relationships, where activities can often start as soon as a portion of
a preceding activity is completed. In addition to the usual finish-to-start
precedence relationship, this technique permits start-to-start and finish-to-
finish relationships
Thank you for Listening!