Photovoltaics Report

—
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
with the support of PSE Projects GmbH

Freiburg, 29 May 2025

www.ise.fraunhofer.de
CONTENT

 Quick Facts
 Topics:
 PV Market
 Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency
 Life cycle assessment (LCA) and sustainability aspects
 Price Development
 Abbreviations
 Further Studies and Analyses
 Acknowledgements

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Introduction
Preliminary Remarks

 The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information. However, facts and figures change rapidly, and
the given information may soon be outdated again.

 This work has been carried out under the responsibility of Dr. Simon Philipps (Fraunhofer ISE) and Werner Warmuth
(PSE Projects GmbH).

 Price indications are always to be understood as nominal, unless stated explicitly. For example, prices in the learning
curves are inflation adjusted.

 The slides have been made as accurate as possible. Please send any comments or suggestions for improvement to both
[email protected] and [email protected]

 Please cite the information presented in these slides as follows:

©Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics Report, updated: 29 May 2025

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Quick Facts
Parameter Value Status Reference Date of data
Germany / EU27 / Worldwide
PV installation market [GW] 15.3 / 55.9 / 456 GW End of 2023 BNA / SPE / IEA 04/2025; 12/2023; 04/2025
16.9 / 76.4 / 602 End of 2024 BNA / SPE / IEA 04/2025; 04/2025; 04/2025

Cumulative installation [GW] 83.1net / 211.6net / 1,555 GW End of 2023 ISE / ISE / IEA 04/2025; 04/2025; 04/2025
100.0net / 251.1net / 2,156.5 GW End of 2024 ISE / ISE / IEA 04/2025; 04/2025; 04/2025

PV power generation [TWh] 53.9net / 246.8gross / 1641.6gross 2023 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024
ISE 05/2025
59.7net 2024
PV electricity share 12.5%net / 9.0%gross / 5.5%gross 2023 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024
14.5%net 2024 ISE / EI / EI 05/2025

Worldwide
c-Si share of production 98% 2024 ITRPV 03/2025

Record solar cell efficiency: III-V MJ (conc.) 47.6 / 27.4 / 23.4 / 24.4 / 21.0% 10/2024 Green et al. 10/2024

/mono-Si /CIGS /multi-Si /CdTe

Germany
Price PV rooftop system (3 to 10 kWp) 900 to 1,300 €/kWp 2024 gruenes.haus 12/2024

LCOE PV power plant 4.1 to 5.0 ct€ / kWh 2024 ISE 08/2024

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Lowest/Latest PV-tender price 4.33/4.66 ct€ / kWh 02/2018;
BNA 04/2025
(average, volume-weighted value) 03/2025
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Executive Summary
PV Market: Global

 Photovoltaics is a fast-growing market: The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of cumulative
PV installations was about 27% between the years 2014 and 2024.
 Wafer size increased. Keeping the same number of cells, larger PV module sizes are realized, allowing a power range of
over 700 W per module.
 In 2024, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations amounted to 23%. In contrast, installations in
China accounted for 49% (in 2023 43%) and in North America for 5% respectively.
 Silicon wafer-based technology accounted for about 98% of total production in 2024 with a 70% share of n-type wafers
according to ITRPV. Monocrystalline technology became the dominant technology in c-Si production.
 Market shifts from subsidy-driven to a competitive pricing model (Power Purchase Agreements PPA).
 In addition to building-integrated (roof or building facades) and ground-mounted systems, more and more PV systems
are being installed on agricultural land (agrivoltaics) and bodies of water (floating PV). Furthermore, vehicle-integrated
PV enters the market.
 With increasing share of power generated by renewables, the integration of batteries with energy management
systems is becoming increasingly important.
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Executive Summary
PV Market: Focus Germany

 In 2024, PV installations in Germany (approximately 4.8 million PV systems with a capacity of over 800 W) accounted for
about 4.6% (100 GWp) of the cumulative PV capacity installed worldwide (2156.5 GWp). According to the BNA, newly installed
capacity in Germany amounted to approximately 16.9 GWp in 2024, compared to 15.3 GWp in 2023.
 In 2024, PV accounted for 14.5% of net electricity generation and all renewable energies for around 62%.
 In 2024 GHG emissions of about 51 million tons CO2 equivalents were avoided due to 74 TWh PV electricity consumed in
Germany.
 PV system performance has strongly improved. Before 2000 the typical Performance Ratio was about 70%, while today it is
around 80% to 90%.
 Today residential and small commercial PV systems are often installed together with battery storage and a charging station for
electric vehicles. Due to relative high electricity tariffs in Germany, self consumption is the prevailing business model. The
installation of balcony solar systems is another growing trend.
 With increasing generation capacity from solar and wind, the flexible integration of volatile electricity into the grid becomes
more important. Grid expansion, load management, smart grids, bidirectional charging of vehicle batteries, etc. must be
promoted in order to avoid curtailment of renewable power plants.

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Executive Summary
Solar Cell / Module Efficiencies

 The record lab cell efficiency* is 27.4% for monocrystalline and 24.4% for multicrystalline silicon wafer-based
technology. The highest lab efficiency in thin film technology is 23.4% for CIGS and 21.0% for CdTe solar cells. Record
lab cell efficiency for perovskite solar cells is 25.2%.
 In the last 10 years, the efficiency of commercial monocrystalline wafer-based silicon modules increased from about
16% to values over 22%. At the same time, the CdTe module efficiency increased from 9% to 19%.
 In the laboratory, the best performing modules are based on monocrystalline silicon with 25.4% efficiency. Record
efficiencies demonstrate the potential for further efficiency increases at the production level.
 In the laboratory, high concentration multi-junction solar cells achieve an efficiency of up to 47.6% today. With
concentrator technology, module efficiencies of up to 38.9% have been reached.

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* Only official lab record efficiencies with minimum cell area of 1 cm2 are listed. Latest reference: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 65), Progress in
©Fraunhofer ISE
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Executive Summary
Energy Payback Time

 Silicon usage for silicon cells has been reduced significantly during the last 20 years from around
16 g/Wp (in 2004) to about 2.0 g/Wp in 2024 due to increased efficiencies, thinner wafers (140 µm) using diamond
wire saws, and larger ingots.
 The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the geographical location: PV systems manufactured in
Europe and installed in Northern Europe require approximately 1.1 years to pay back the energy input, while PV
systems installed in the South require 0.9 years to pay back the energy input, depending on the technology installed
and the grid efficiency.
 A PV system located in Sicily using wafer-based silicon modules has an Energy Payback Time of about one year.
Assuming a 20-year lifetime, this type of system can produce twenty times the energy invested in it.
 PV modules can be recycled, recovering rare and valuable materials. Further research and development is needed to
make these recycling processes more in-depth and cost-effective.

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Executive Summary
Price Development

 Due to the coronavirus crisis and the associated disruptions to supply and trade chains, market prices rose noticeably
in 2022 and at times some products were not available in sufficient quantities. In 2023 prices fell again and have
continued to fall in 2024.
 In Germany, a typical 10 to 100 kWp PV rooftop-system cost around 14,000 €/kWp in 1990. At the end of 2024, such
systems cost less than 9% of that in 1990. Over the last 34 years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net
prices was -6.9%.
 The Experience Curve (also called Learning Curve) shows that in the last 44 years the module price decreased by 25.7%
with each doubling of the cumulated global module production. Cost reductions result from economies of scale and
technological improvements. The global average selling price (ASP) was about 0.13 US$/Wp in 2024.

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1. PV Market

 By region
 By technology

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PV Module Production by Region 1990-2024
Percentage of Total MWp Produced

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Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other
©Fraunhofer ISE
public sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025 . Date of data: 05/2025
PV Module Production by Region
Global Annual Production

Annual Production Today

—
Annual production has increased
14-fold over the past decade. In
2024, approximately 96% of solar
modules and their components
came from Asia, primarily from
China with a module production
share of about 80%, which also
controls more than 95% of the
market for certain components,
such as ingots and wafers.

Data from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates basaed on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025. Date of data 05/2025

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Global Production Capacities (w/o China)
Current and planned capacities July 2024

Data and Graph: Jochen Rentsch, Fraunhofer ISE 2025; last update: 07/2024

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EU PV Manufacturing Landscape – Status Quo
November 2024

pcc SE
Stakksberg
ELKEM
Wertschöpfung

Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia

Wacker
mg-Si Norway
Poly-Si
Ingot / Wafer
Solarzelle
Module SoliTek
Sonnenstromfabrik
Fabrikgröße
Aleo
> 1 GWp MeyerBurger
Soluxtec Bruk-Bet
> 500 MWp Solarwelt Heckert
RECOM Wacker
> 100 MWp Sillia Voltec
Megasol Kioto KarpatSolar
3S Eclipse/
Ferroglobe BiSol Solvis
Reden PeimarSolarday Domi Eko
Escelco
RECOM Sunerg
PiKCell

Ferroglobe

Status 11/24

14 * currently 2,100 kg/MWp poly-Si necessary for Ingot production

** majority of EU produced poly-Si is sold into the semiconductor industry
©Fraunhofer ISE
*** currently 3.150 kg/MWp mg-Si necessary for Ingot production
PV Production in Germany - Status Quo
PV Module Suppliers – November 2024
Value-added stage
mg-Si
Poly-Si
Company Location Capacity Website Ingot / Wafer
[MW] Solar cell
Module
Soluxtec Bitburg 1200 https://www.soluxtec.de/
Sonnenstromfabrik
Sonnenstromfabrik Wismar 525 https://www.sonnenstromfabrik.com/de/ Factory size

Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia

> 1 GWp
Solarwelt (Heckert) Langenwetzendorf 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com/standort-
> 500 MWp Oxford PV Aleo Solar
lwd/
> 100 MWp
Heckert Solar Chemnitz 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com MeyerBurger NexWafe
> 50 MWp Avancis
Aleo Solar Berlin 300 https://www.aleo-solar.de/ OPES Wacker
Heliatek
Antec Sunmaxx
Heliatek Dresden 250 https://www.heliatek.com/de/
Soluxtec Solarwelt Heckert
OPES Zwenkau 200 https://www.opes-solutions.com/de/

Avancis Torgau 100 https://www.avancis.de/

AxSun Laupheim 50 https://www.axsun.de/

AxSun Wacker
Sunmaxx Ottendorf-Okrilla 50 https://sunmaxx-pvt.com/de

Antec Solar Arnstadt 50 https://www.antec.solar/

Data and Graph: Jochen Rentsch, Fraunhofer ISE 2025; last update: 11/2024
Status 11/24
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Global Cumulative PV Installation
By Region

© Fraunhofer ISE

Note: Cumulative installed capacity

is considered here as ‘aggregate
Data: IRENA 2025. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025. Date of data: 24.03.2025
annual additions.’

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Global Cumulative PV Installation
Cumulative Installed On-Grid and Off-Grid Capacity (2010-2024)

Percentages show share of cumulative off-grid PV

installations in relation to total cumulative PV
installations. Approximately 99.6% of today’s installed PV
capacity is connected to the grid.

The proportion of off-grid systems compared to the total

cumulative systems has roughly halved over time from
just under 1 % in 2010 to 0.40 % in 2024.

Data: IRENA 2025. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025. Date of data: 04/2025

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Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region
Status 2024

The total cumulative installations amounted to about

2,156.5 GWp according to IEA-PVPS at the end of year
2024; IRENA reports 1,858.6 GWp.

All percentages are related to global installed PV capacity,

including off-grid systems.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Source: IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global Market; Data: IRENA 2025. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025. Date of data: 24.03.2025

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Annually Installed PV System Capacity in Germany
Percentage of Annual Capacity by System Size

100%
The annual distribution of the
90%
different system size categories
80%
strongly depends on current:
Share of capacity additions

70%

60%
 regulations
50%
 market incentives (like EEG)
40%  tender procedures
30%  bankability (trust of investors)
20%

10%

0%
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Note:
Years
“Building” includes roofs, facades and plug-in
Building (x ≤ 10 kWp) Building (10 < x < 20 kWp) systems.
Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp) Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp) “Ground-mounted” includes bodies of water,
Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp) parking lots and other structures.
Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) Building (x > 1000 kWp)
19 Source until year 2020: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on EEG-master and -flow data (netztransparenz.de, Sept. 2021)
©Fraunhofer ISE Source since 2021: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 05.05.2025) and data validation algorithm
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Number of Total Cumulative PV Installations by System Size in 2024
Germany

Total Installations and Share of Total Installations and Share of

Grid-Connected PV Systems PV Systems > 500 kWp Building (x ≤ 10 kWp)

Building (10 < x < 20 kWp)

Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp)

965,582 312,394
20% 7% 1,074
Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp) At the end of 2024, about
196,873
0%
Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) 4.8 million grid-
4%
5,725 Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp) connected PV systems
were installed in
50,988 59,143 0%
1% 1% Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp)
74,790
1%
6,316
0% Building (x > 1000 kWp) Germany.
3,232,819 1,374 Ground-mounted (x ≤ 750 kWp)
67% 0%
1,158
0% Ground-mounted (750 < x ≤ 1000
kWp)
Ground-mounted (x > 1000 kWp)

Note:
In 2024, around 800,000 plug-in systems (up to 800 W feed-in power from so-called balcony PV systems), were registered in Germany.
Due to underreporting, the actual number is estimated to be around 3 million installed systems. [1] © Fraunhofer ISE

20 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 05.05.2025) and data validation algorithm
©Fraunhofer ISE [1] Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR (Date: 05.05.2025) and additional estimates by
public Fraunhofer ISE
Total Cumulative Capacity of PV Installations by System Size in 2024
Germany

PV Capacity (in MWp) and Share PV Capacity (in MWp) and Share of All
of All Grid-Connected PV Systems Systems >500 kWp
Building (x ≤ 10 kWp)
10,870
11% Building (10 < x < 20 kWp)
11,032
11%
Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp)
At the end of 2024, total
8,063
28,065
28%
Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp)
cumulative PV capacity
8%
40,038 985
Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) in Germany amounted
12,895
40% 1% Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp) to around 100.1 GWp.
13% 3,479
Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp)
4%
Building (x > 1000 kWp)
2,115
17,247 2% Ground-mounted (x ≤ 750 kWp)
4,156
17%
4% Ground-mounted (750 < x ≤ 1000
1,239
© Fraunhofer ISE 1% kWp)
Ground-mounted (x > 1000 kWp)

Note:
Balcony solar systems (up to 800 W feed-in power) accounted for 720 MWp in 2024. These were mostly within the building
PV system class (x ≤ 10 kWp), [1].
21 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 05.05.2025) and data validation algorithm
©Fraunhofer ISE [1] Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR (Date: 05.05.2025)
public
and additional estimates by Fraunhofer ISE
Share of Residential Rooftop Systems with and without Battery Storage
Germany

Share at the End of 2023 Share in Year of Commissioning By the end of 2023, over 1.2
2% million units, or 40 percent
100%
of all residential PV systems
80% have a battery energy
40%
1.2 million storage system (BESS).
residential rooftop 60%

Share
PV systems are The share of commissions
40%
combined with a
battery storage for residential rooftop PV
20%
system by the end of systems with BESS increased
58%
2023. 0% from <20% in 2014 to nearly
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80% in 2023.
Year of commissioning

PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage Unknown

© Fraunhofer ISE

Note:
Residential rooftop PV systems are defined as all systems on buildings with a maximum capacity of 30 kWp according to MaStR-Data.

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©Fraunhofer ISE Source: Marktstammdatenregister - MaStR (Date: 01.04.2024)
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 Share of PV Installations with and without Battery Storage, BESS
Commercial Rooftop and Utility-Scale Systems in Germany

Commercial rooftop systems Utility-scale ground-mounted systems

100% 100%

80% 80%

60% 60%

Share
Share

40% 40%

20% 20%

0% 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year of commissioning Year of commissioning

PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage Unknown PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage Unknown

The share of commissions for PV installations with BESS increased In 2022 and 2023 there was a significant increase in commissions
from 5% in 2014 to 20% in 2023 in the com-mercial rooftop sector. for PV with BESS, reaching a share of around 7% in the utility-
scale PV power plant sector.

Note: Commercial rooftop PV systems are defined as all systems on buildings with a Note: Utility-scale ground-mounted PV systems are defined as all ground-mounted systems
capacity greater than 30 kWp according to MaStR-Data. with a capacity greater than 1 MWp according to MaStR-Data.

23 Source: Marktstammdatenregister - MaStR (Date: 05.05.2025)

©Fraunhofer ISE
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Electrical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources (RES)
Germany

Renewable energy sources accounted for 188.4 GW of the total 263.9 GW net installed electricity generation capacity
in Germany in 2024, resulting in a RE share of 71.4% of total capacity.
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Data:: Energy Charts by Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger. Date of data: 03/2025
©Fraunhofer ISE
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PV Energy Generated and Resulting GHG Emissions Avoided
Germany

80 60
Electrical Energy Generated by PV in Germany

Avoided Greenhouse Gas Emissions

70
50

[Mio. t CO2 equivalten]

60
40
50
[TWh]

40 30

30
20
20
10
10

0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Year
Photovoltaics Avoided GHG Emissions

In 2024, greenhouse gas emissions of about 51 Mio. t CO₂-equivalent were avoided due to 74 TWh PV electricity
consumed in Germany.
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©Fraunhofer ISE Data: BMU, BDEW, BMWi, Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) 04/2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025
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Annual PV Production by Technology
Worldwide (in GWp)

About 703 GWp PV module production in 2024

2020

Thin film
2015
Mono-Si

2010 Multi-Si
© Fraunhofer ISE

2005

2000

26
Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS Markit; from 2022; VDMA for 2024: ISE; Graph: PSE
©Fraunhofer ISE Projects GmbH 2025
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Technology Overview
Different crystalline-Silicon Cell Technology Market Shares

Source: based on ITRPV 2013-2024

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PV Production by Technology
Percentage of Global Annual Production

Production 2024 (GWp)

Thin film* 16
Multi-Si 0
Mono-Si 687
Total 703 (ITRPV)

*only First Solar and Avancis were considered

in totaling the thin film technology.

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025 . Date of data: 05/2025

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2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency

 Development in the Laboratories

 Development in the PV Industry
 Performance Ratio (PR)

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Development of Laboratory Solar Cell Efficiencies

Data: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Versions 1 to 66), Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 1993-2025. Graph: Fraunhofer ISE 2025. Date of data: 04/2025

30 Only official lab record efficiencies published in the Solar Cell Efficiency Tables, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications are included in the graph.
©Fraunhofer ISE
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Efficiency Comparison of Technologies
Best Lab Cells vs. Best Lab Modules

Note: In mass production, the cell-to-

module ratio (CTM) improved in past
years by reducing losses and using
possible gains when integrating solar cells
in modules.

Fraunhofer ISE provides the software

suite SmartCalc.CTM for determining
precise Cell-to-Module (CTM) power loss
analyses. Geometrical losses, optical
losses and gains as well as electrical
losses are considered in the analysis.

www.cell-to-module.com
Data: Green et al.: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 66), Progress in PV: Research and Applications 2025. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025. Date of data: 04/2025

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Current Efficiencies and Power of Commercial PV Modules
Sorted by Technology

 Total weighted average efficiency of crystalline Silicon

(c-Si) wafer-based modules is 22.0% in
Q4-2024 (21.6% in Q4-2023); weighting factor is total
shipments in year 2023. Lowest module efficiency in
this group is 18.8% (17.4% one year before) and highest
value is 23.8% (23.3% in 2023).
 Top 10 manufacturers represent about 85% of total
shipment volume in 2023 and origin mainly in Asia.
 n-type TopCon and Heterojunction replaces p-type
PERC technology.

Note: The selection is based on modules from the top 10 manufacturers in 2024, with module data
sheets available worldwide at the end of October 2024. For CdTe, only data from First Solar and for
CIGS technology, only modules from Avancis have been considered due to limited number of
suppliers. Some products for Building-Integrated PV (BIPV) have not been considered.
Data Source: company product data sheets; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025; Date of data: 10/2024

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3. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Sustainability Aspects

 Silicon usage, wafer thickness and kerf loss for c-Si

 Energy Payback Time EPBT: Development and comparison

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c-Si Solar Cell Development
Wafer Thickness [µm] & Silicon Usage [g/Wp]

Polysilicon consumption in solar cell

production (in grams per watt-peak)
has decreased by almost 10% year-on-
year since 2004 due to:

 reductions in wafer thickness

 kerf loss, and
 by process optimizations such as
recycling silicon from kerf loss
 Progress in cell efficiency also has
impacted the specific silicon usage.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: until 2012: EU PV Technology Platform Strategic Research Agenda, from 2012: ITRPV; ; from 2016 ISE without recycling of Si; from 2017 ongoing with recycling of Si. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025

©Fraunhofer ISE
Energy Payback Time: Historical Trend
Harmonized Study Data for Monocrystalline Silicon Rooftop PV Systems

Learning Rate:
Each time the cumulative production doubled,
the EPBT went down by 12.8 % over the last 24
years.

Harmonization methodology
based on Koppelaar (2016) harmonized results and harmonization parameters

1) Performance Ratio
based on average annual PV yield during lifetime
PV system lifetime 25
Degradation 0.70%
PR (initial) 80%
PR (incl. average degradation during lifetime) 73.6%
2) Grid efficiency
for converting PV yield in primary energy equivalents
grid efficiency 35% © Fraunhofer ISE

EPBT of Leccisi (2016), Louwen (2014) and Friedrich (2020) were harmonized with
1) PR (incl. average degradation) and 2) grid efficiency to results of Koppelaar (2016)*

Data: Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2021 Irradiation: 1700 kWh/m²/a at an optimized tilt angle; Years: Estimated average year of original data

35 * Koppelaar (2016) - Solar-PV energy payback and net energy: Meta-assessment of study quality, reproducibility, and results harmonization, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Leccidi et al. (2016) - The Energy and Environmental Performance of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic Systems—A Timely Update, Energies
©Fraunhofer ISE Louwen et al. (2014) - Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy payback time of current and prospective silicon heterojunction solar cell designs, Progress in Photovoltaics
public Friedrich et al. (2020) - Global Warming Potential and Energy Payback Time Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity by Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) Solar Modules, submitted JPV
Energy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems
Geographical Comparison

 Rooftop PV system using mono- Irradiation (GTI, kWh/m²/a) EPBT

<600
crystalline silicon cells*
800
produced in China
1000

 EPBT is dependent on 1200

irradiation, but also on other 1400 1.3 years

factors like grid efficiency**. 1600

1800
 Better grid efficiency in Europe
2000
may decrease the EPBT by
>2200
typically 9.5 % compared to PV
modules produced in China.
1.0 year

Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. Image: JRC European Commission. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2020 (Modified scale with updated data from Fraunhofer ISE)

36 *Cz PERC cells module with 19.9% efficiency

©Fraunhofer ISE **relation between primary energy to produced electricity in the grid used for manufacturing of the PV system
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World Map EPBT of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems
Comparison of EPBT China

Influencing Factors and Interpretation EPBT

 EPBT: the lower, the better
 Irradiation: the higher, the better
 Grid efficiency: the higher, the better
 in countries where upstream production is
located (better energy mix to generate electrical
power, less losses in the electrical transmission
network), and
 at downstream (where PV is installed) a low grid
efficiency reduces the EPBT.
© Fraunhofer ISE

EPBT = Energy Pay Back Time in years: Calculated for a PV system with
Data source: Fraunhofer ISE.
Cz PERC 60-cell modules with 19.9 % efficiency, produced in China

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Energy Payback Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems
Comparison of EPBT China / EU, Local Irradiation and Grid Efficiency in 2021

© Fraunhofer ISE © Fraunhofer ISE

EPBT for PV systems produced in Europe is shorter than for those produced in China because of better grid efficiency in Europe.
Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. Calculations for year 2021 made at 22-July 2022

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PV Module
Materials and Components

Glass Al Frame Interconnector

(67.5%) AlMg3 (12.7%) Cu (1.3%) Please note: Highly transparent
glass can also be produced
Sb Sn (0.09%) / Pb (0.09%) without antimony (Sb), and some
European suppliers are doing so.
It is technically feasible to recycle
and reuse almost 100% of the
11.6 kg/m² Solar cells
materials used in PV modules.
The European WEEE Directive
Si (2.7%) stipulates that at least 80% of the
Ethylene-vinyl acetate Ag/PbO (0.04%) module mass of old modules
(6.7%) Ag/Al/PbO (0.01%) must be processed and recycled
Al (0.07%) for reuse. For economic reasons,
however, only the glass, frame
and junction box (J-Box) are
recycled today.
Color legend:
© Fraunhofer ISE
Available/harmless materials
Rare/valuable materials
J-Box Hazardous substances
GRP, Polyamide (1.6%)
Silicones (1.2%) Recycling takes place
Backsheet Diodes/Cables (0.02%)
PVF/Glue/PET/Glue/PVF (3.7%) Downcycling takes place
F
Source: Fraunhofer ISE © 2024

39 Mass fraction of substance in relation to total module mass of 11.6 kg/m² (100%) given in brackets; Date of data: 2021
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PV Module
Measures to Improve the Life Cycle

What to reduce or avoid? What solutions are available?

Material consumption (general) Higher efficiency PV modules; longer lifetime; better recyclability;
bio-based polymers
Silicon Thinner wafer
Silver (Ag) Multi-busbars with more precise application of the silver paste; busbar-less cells;
Replacing silver (Ag) by copper (Cu) or aluminium (Al)
Antimony (Sb) in glass Sb-free solar glass
Fluorinated backsheets Double-glass modules; alternative backsheets without fluorine compounds
Glass consumption Thinner glass, reuse or recycling of solar glass instead of downcycling
Lead (heavy metal issues) Lead-free solders or alternative contacting; alternative interconnection using
electrically conductive adhesive (ECA)
Aluminium frame Frameless modules; steel or plastic frame
Module failure due to faulty bypass diode Install replaceable bypass diode

40 Data source: Fraunhofer ISE

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4. Price Development

 Electricity costs
 Market incentives in Germany
 Costs for PV systems
 Price Learning Curve

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Electricity Prices, PV Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) and Bidding Scheme in Germany
With Photovoltaic Rooftop Systems Partial Feed-In Tariff

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: BNA; energy-charts.info; Design: B. Burger - Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025; Date of data: 05/2025

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PV Market Development and Incentive Schemes in Germany

Market Incentive Start End

1‘000 Roofs Program 1990 1995
Cost-covering remuneration 1993 1999
100‘000 Roofs-Program 1999 2003
EEG 2000 ongoing
PV Tendering scheme 2015 ongoing

The EEG 2023 law relies on a massive expansion of

renewable energies with total installed PV capacity
targets of 215 GW in 2030 and 400 GW in 2040. In
2024, new PV systems totaling around 16 GW capacity
have been connected to the grid. From 2026 on, the
expansion target is 22 GW of new installations on an
annual basis.
Data: BNA. Graph: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE Energy-Charts. Date of Data: 09.04.2025

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PV Tender Scheme in Germany for Free-Standing Systems
Average, quantity weighted award value

 The PV tender scheme for large

ground-mounted systems started in
April 2015. The total capacity of this
scheme amounted to 21.8 GW in
December 2024 with 4.76 ct€ / kWh
as latest average quantity weighted
award price.

 PV-rooftop and special tenders are

not displayed in the graph.

Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025 – Date of data: 04/2025

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PV-Tender in Germany for Large Rooftop-Systems
Average, quantity weighted award value

 PV tender scheme for large rooftop

systems (>750 kW) started in June 2021
and total capacity of this scheme
accumulates to 2.2 GW by October 2024
with 10.5 ct€ / kWh as latest average
quantity weighted award price.

 Lowest PV tender round was in June 2021

with 6.88 ct€ / kWh as average quantity
weighted award price.

Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025 – Date of data: 05/2025

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Global Weighted Average Levelized Costs of Electricity for Large PV Systems
(with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)

 The global weighted average LCoE for 2023 for large PV systems is 0.036
€/kWh (= 36 €/MWh).

 The 5th percentile is a value associated with the location within the data
where 5% of the data is below that value. For 2023, the 5th percentile is
0.025 €/kWh (= 25 €/MWh).

 The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of the data has a higher value.
For 2023 the 95th percentile is 0.089 €/kWh (= 89 €/MWh).

 The LCoE has decreased by 16% year-on-year over the last 13 years.

Data: IRENA (2024), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2024

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Global Weighted Average Total Installed Costs For Large PV Systems
(with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)

 The global weighted average total cost for large PV systems was
617 €/kWp in 2023.

 The 5th percentile is a value associated with the location within the data
where 5% of the data is below this value. For 2023 the 5th percentile is 429
€/kWp.

 The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of the data has a higher value. For
2023, the 95th percentile is 1355 €/kWp.

 Total installed cost for large PV systems decreased by about 13% on year-to-
year basis in the last 13 years.

Data: IRENA (2024), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2024

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Breakdown of Utility-Scale PV Total Installed Costs
By Country in 2023

Breakdown of Cost Components

(average of available country data):

Data: IRENA (2024), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2024

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Breakdown of Total Installation Costs of Utility-Scale PV
Germany 2019 to 2023

Supply shortages due to the

coronavirus crisis led to price
turbulence in 2022. Prices are
returning to pre-crisis levels.

Data: IRENA (2024), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2024

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Price Experience Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies

Learning Rate:
Each time the cumulative PV module
production doubled, the module price
dropped about 25.7% over the past
44 years.

Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS Markit from 2022; VDMA for 2024: ISE; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025.

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Price Experience Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies

Learning Rate:
Each time the cumulative PV module
production doubled, the module price
dropped about 25.7% over the past
44 years.

Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS Markit from 2022; VDMA for 2024: ISE; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2025

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Further Reading
Selected studies and analyses

Fraunhofer-ISE Energy Charts

Study: Levelized Cost of Electricity - Renewable Energy Technologies

Recent facts about photovoltaics in Germany

Power Generation from Renewable Energy in Germany

What will the Energy Transformation Cost? Pathways for Transforming the German Energy System by 2050

Sustainable PV Manufacturing in Europe – An Initiative for a 10 GW Green Fab

Meta Study: Future Crosssectoral Decarbonization Target Systems in Comparison to Current Status of Technologies

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Abbreviations

Abbreviation Explanation Abbreviation Explanation

AC Alternating Current HCPV High Concentrator Photovoltaic
Al-BSF Aluminum Back Surface Field HJT (also HIT) Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-Layer
BESS Battery Energy Storage Systems IBC Interdigitated Back Contact (solar cells)
BIPV Building Integrated PV LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy
BOS Balance of System LCPV Low Concentrator Photovoltaic
CdTe Cadmium-Telluride MJ Multi Junction
CI(G)S Copper Indium (Gallium)Diselenide MPP Maximum Power Point
CPV Concentrating Photovoltaic n-type Negatively doped wafer (with phosphorous)
c-SI Crystalline Silicon PERX Passivated emitter and rear cell
CTM Cell-to-Module PR Performance Ratio
Cz Czochralski Method p-type Positively doped wafer (with boron or gallium)
DC Direct current PV Photovoltaic
EEG Renewable Energy Source Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, EEG) RE Renewable Energies
EI The Energy Institute ROI Return on Investment
EPBT Energy Payback Time SI Silicon
EROI Energy Return of Invest SIC Silicon carbide
FZ Floating Zone TOPCon Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact
GaAs Gallium Arsenide VAT Value Added Tax
GaN Gallium nitride
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Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out with contributions from: The information provided in this Photovoltaics Report is
very concise by its nature . Its principal purpose is to
Name Institution provide a rough overview about the current solar PV
Andreas Bett ISE market, the technologies and the environmental impact.
Bruno Burger ISE
Christoph Kost ISE
However, there are many more aspects. These and further
Holger Neuhaus ISE
details can be provided by Fraunhofer ISE upon request.
Sebastian Nold ISE
Simon Philipps ISE
Please contact us if you are interested in receiving a tailor-
Ralf Preu ISE made offer.
Christian Reichel ISE
Jochen Rentsch ISE [email protected]
Gerhard Stryi-Hipp ISE [email protected]
Tobias Reuter ISE
Harry Wirth ISE
Werner Warmuth PSE Projects GmbH

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Thank You
for Your Interest
—
Contact
[email protected]
[email protected]