Analysis of an International Conflict: Actors, Causes, Dynamics, and Scenarios
Afghanistan Civil War
International Relations Department
Ala-Too International University
International Conflict Analysis and Peace
Ms. Taalaigul Usonova
Aikerim Raiymbekova, Saikal Amiralieva, Bermet Ajymamatova, Aizhamal Kalysbek kyzy
Actors involved
For many years, Afghanistan has been in a state of continuous conflict between the
Taliban government and opposition forces, as well as terrorist organizations, regional powers and
international players.
The Taliban is aiming to solidify its influence in the country, seeking credibility around the world
, while rebel organizations, including the National Resistance Front (NRF) and ISIS-Q, are testin
g its control over the country.
An extreme economic and humanitarian crisis has struck Afghanistan due to its dependence on f
oreign help as millions of its people are in need of relocation and assistance due to the loss of ess
ential systems (United Nations, 2025).
The country faces an uncertain future as it is under regional and international sanctions, enduring
diplomatic isolation while nations in the region shift their interests.
The Taliban, led by Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada, have concentrated on pres
erving their hold on power in Afghanistan.
The Taliban aspires to international recognition, but because of their links to terrorist organizatio
ns and violations of human rights, they remain isolated from the rest of the world (Human Rights
Watch, 2025).
Women's rights are vanishing under Taliban rule because Islamic law is strictly interpreted and a
nyone who disagrees with it is suppressed.
Despite the agreements they have signed, the Taliban's trade partnerships with China and Russia
remain threatened by internal divisions and threats from ISIL-Q and the NRF (Reuters, 2025).
Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K Targeted killings are carried out across
Afghanistan by the terrorist organization ISIS-K in opposition to the Taliban. The terrorist group
creates its own Islamic state, known as the "caliphate," by using civilians, members of ethnic
minorities, and diplomatic targets. ISIS-K, a terrorist group, feels that the Taliban's version of
Islam is too lenient (BBC, 2025). After Taliban troops tried to put an end to the group's conflict,
there are still serious security issues in Kabul and other key locations (United Nations, 2025). A
number of destabilizing factors, including disillusioned militants and former Taliban fighters
who have joined ISIS-Q, are contributing to the region's increasing volatility (Reuters, 2025).
National Resistance Front (NRF)
The NRF is mostly made up of anti-Taliban groups and former Afghan security troops
that hold the Panjshir Valley and surrounding regions. Lack of foreign supporting hinders the
movement, which seeks to reinstate a democratic or moderate Islamic government (Reuters,
2025). When the NRF is denied substantial international assistance, its ability to fight the Taliban
deteriorates. The NRF employs guerilla warfare, ambushing Taliban convoys and conducting
strikes (BBC, 2025).
European Union, NATO, and the United States NATO and the United States were the
main military forces in Afghanistan until their withdrawal in 2021. Washington capture
Afghanistan's central bank assets and applied economic sanctions following the departure,
making it harder for the Taliban administration to rule the nation (European Council, 2025). The
western world maintains a policy of non-engagement with the Taliban administration in spite of
ongoing humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. According to the United Nations, the European Union
is now assisting Afghan refugees while upholding human rights, particularly those of women
(2025). Due to the Taliban's increased limitations, humanitarian assistance distribution is
becoming more and more problematic (Human Rights Watch, 2025).
Before the militant groups established in Afghanistan endangering national security,
Pakistan had a positive relationship with the Taliban government. The TTP rebellion, which was
founded from the Afghan Taliban, has resulted in cross-border conflict and increasing diplomatic
tensions between Kabul and Islamabad (Al Jazeera, 2025). Pakistan maintains military action
against the terrorists who are setting up strongholds inside Afghanistan in spite of talks with the
Taliban (Reuters, 2025).
Iran, Russia, and China Through cooperation in mining and military security, China has
improved its political and economic ties with Afghanistan as part of its global agenda. While
maintaining security control over the Xinjiang province that borders Afghanistan, Beijing
emphasizes Afghan resource wealth through the Belt and Road Initiative (Global Times, 2025).
Russia sees Afghanistan as a crucial position to restrict foreign influence in Central Asian
countries because of its diplomatic ties with the Taliban (Reuters, 2025).
Iran and the Taliban leadership have complicated diplomatic relations. The nation maintains
commerce and security negotiations with Kabul while providing diplomatic backing to Afghan
Shiite groups (Tehran Times, 2025).
India Without actively participating, Indian foreign policy toward Afghanistan has
concentrated on security concerns. Despite its lack of formal recognition, New Delhi continues
to offer humanitarian assistance and engage in limited diplomatic discussions with the Taliban
regime (The Hindu, 2025). The Indian government is worried about extremists, particularly those
with strong links to Pakistan, targeting India from Afghan territory (BBC, 2025).
Significant figures. Afghanistan is being guided into the future by a number of powerful
individuals. Mullah Mohammad Hasan Akhund is the acting prime minister at the moment,
although Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada is the ultimate authority inside the Taliban
hierarchy (United Nations, 2025). Although ISIS-Q's leadership has not been made public, the
scope of their destructive actions points to intricate cooperation (BBC 2025).
Leaders in Pakistan, driven by Prime Serve Shehbaz Sharif, and China, represented by
President Xi Jinping, along side Russian President Vladimir Putin, are charting the course of
Afghanistan's diplomatic way and financial advancement (Reuters 2025). Western officials are
currently separated over their approach to the Taliban government as they must decide how much
aid to supply without applying financial restrictions (European Chamber, 2025).
Causes
Afghanistan is a diverse society, primarily composed of several ethnic groups, with the
Pashtuns and Sunni being the most significant. Persian speakers (currently referred to as Tajiks),
Uzbeks, and Shiah Hazaras (also Persian speakers), along with numerous other groups
(Turkmens, Nuristanis, Balochs, Pasha'is, and others) (Roy, 2000, p. 2). The Afghan state was
established and, historically, has been controlled by the Pashtun ethnic group, though numerous
Pashtuns who established themselves in Kabul became 'Persianized' (like the previous King
Zahir Shah) (Roy, 2000, p. 3). The sole deviation from Pashtun dominance was the short
takeover of Kabul in 1929 by Bache-ye Saqqao, a Tajik from the northern region (Roy, 2000, p.
3).
During Amir Abdurrahman’s reign (1880–1901), the monarchy established a loose yet
widespread state apparatus, including management, a standing military, systems of elementary
and secondary education, and universities (Roy, 2000, p. 4). The foreign policy of Afghanistan
was primarily based on its opposition to British and Russian encroachments. Following three
conflicts with the British, occurring between 1840 and 1919, Afghanistan turned into a buffer
zone between the two empires (Roy, 2000, p. 5). However, the division of India in 1947 abruptly
changed the regional power dynamics. A dispute broke out between Afghanistan and Pakistan
regarding their common border (the so-called Durand Line), and Afghanistan was the only
country to vote against the admission of Pakistan to the UN (Roy, 2000, p. 6).
After 1955, the United States decided to support Pakistan, leading Afghanistan to slowly
shift towards Moscow and establish working relations with India (Roy, 2000, p. 7). The Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was, in a sense, only the brutal confirmation of Afghanistan
switching from a buffer state to a part of the Soviet sphere of influence (Roy, 2000, p. 8).
However, the Afghan war of resistance against the Soviets provided Pakistan with an opportunity
to shift the balance of regional power in its favor by enlisting Western support for its efforts to
establish a friendly government in Afghanistan (Roy, 2000, p. 9).
What do you think are the root causes of decades of conflicts in Afghanistan?
“In my view, the root cause of the conflicts in the country– and then later the behaviour of the
people in power– has from the start been the lack of education.”- Dr. Sima Samar
Dr. Sima Samar, a prominent Afghan human rights advocate, asserts that the root cause of
Afghanistan's enduring conflicts is the lack of education, which has influenced the behavior of
those in power (Samar, 2008, p. 15).
While the deficiency in education is a significant factor, the prolonged instability in Afghanistan
stems from a complex interplay of various elements:
1. Ethnic and Tribal Divisions: Afghanistan's diverse society comprises numerous ethnic
groups, including Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks. Historical rivalries and
competition among these groups have often led to internal conflicts (Roy, 2000, p. 3).
2. Foreign Interventions: The country has experienced multiple foreign invasions and
interventions, from the British in the 19th century to the Soviet Union in 1979, and the
U.S.-led coalition in 2001. These interventions have disrupted local governance and
contributed to prolonged warfare (Coll, 2004, p. 56).
3. Political Instability and Corruption: Weak governance structures and pervasive
corruption have undermined public trust and hindered effective state-building efforts
(Rubin, 2002, p. 102).
4. Economic Challenges: Widespread poverty and unemployment have made segments of
the population susceptible to recruitment by militant groups (Giustozzi, 2008, p. 89).
5. Religious Extremism: The rise of extremist ideologies, particularly with the emergence
of the Taliban, has fueled ongoing violence and hindered peace efforts (Barfield, 2010, p.
221).
6. Geopolitical Dynamics: Neighboring countries, notably Pakistan and Iran, have played
roles in Afghanistan's conflicts by supporting various factions to advance their strategic
interests (Rashid, 2010, p. 140).
Dynamics
The Afghan Civil War has been marked by cycles of escalation and de-escalation,
both sponsored by internal disputes and foreign interventions. The war has gone through a
number of phases, shaped by shifts in power alignments, foreign interventions, and military
strategies. Foreign military interventions have been one of the most significant causes of
escalation, as they have altered the power balance between combatant forces.
Foreign military interventions acted as key factors in changing the power dynamics
among combatant factions and escalating conflict. The Soviet military invasion of Afghanistan in
1979 shifted the country into a Cold War conflict zone while prompting U.S. intervention to
oppose Soviet expansion. The Democratic Domino Theory directed this intervention because it
states that democratic decline in one nation might transfer to its neighboring countries (Hyun,
2018). The U.S. funded Afghan rebels with $2.15 billion because Afghanistan held geopolitical
importance as a neighbor to the Persian Gulf. The U.S. supplied Stinger missiles to Afghan
rebels, undermining Soviet air superiority and intensifying the war (Hyun, 2018)
The 2001 U.S. invasion marked a major change in the direction of the Taliban movement.
Unable to fight conventional battles, the Taliban adopted asymmetric methods which included
IED deployment and guerrilla warfare to challenge a technologically dominant adversary. The
response made it impossible for foreign troops to gain control which prolonged the conflict and
kept the cycle of escalation active.
The early military successes after the U.S. invasion in 2001 brought temporary stability
to the nation. A combination of ineffective leadership and the quick adaptation of Taliban forces
reignited the ongoing conflict. The most significant effort to reduce violence during the conflict
came in the form of the Doha Agreement in 2020 which led to U.S. troop withdrawal. The
reduction of foreign military presence which followed the Doha Agreement inadvertently
facilitated the Taliban's quick takeover in 2021.
Foreign-led peace efforts in Afghanistan have historically been short-lived. Without
lasting political settlements, each de-escalation phase has given way to renewed conflict,
perpetuating a cycle of violence.
Scenarios
In the best-case scenario, Afghanistan achieves a fragile but sustainable peace following
a comprehensive power-sharing agreement between the Taliban and moderate political factions,
possibly backed by regional powers like Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian states (Khan, 2024).
International stakeholders, including the UN and key Western countries, play a vital role in
mediating this process (UNHCR, 2024). The country could receive significant foreign aid for
reconstruction, with an emphasis on rebuilding infrastructure, healthcare, education, and the
economy (World Bank, 2024). A new government, with both Taliban and non-Taliban
representatives, would prioritize economic recovery, governance reform, and human rights,
particularly women's education and freedoms (Amnesty International, 2024). An Afghan security
force, trained and supplied by the international community, would assist in sustaining internal
stability (NATO, 2024). Consequently, the nation might slowly draw in foreign investments, start
reintroducing refugees, and decrease terrorist actions. Adjacent nations would gain from a secure
Afghanistan that ceases to act as a source of extremism, enabling regional trade routes to prosper.
Nonetheless, the political shift would continue to be delicate, with the possibility of Taliban
extremists thwarting advancements. The sustained stability of the nation would rely on ongoing
global assistance and successful governance changes
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