CE 525: Fundamentals of Environmental Science and
Engineering
Risk Perception, Assessment and Management
Term – 241
Dr. Faizan Khan
[email protected]
Introduction
• Hazard
– The probability of adverse effects in a particular situation or the capacity to cause harm
– Example: rotating saw blade, a toxic chemical or a pathogen.
• Risk
– The chance or probability that a person will experience harm. It is not the same as
hazard.
– Example: risk of a rotating saw blade can be reduced by installing a guard on the blade
• Risk Assessment:
– The process of estimating a risk is called risk assessment
• Risk Management:
– Using the results of risk assessment to make policy decisions is called risk
management
Risk Perception
• People respond to the hazards they perceive.
Risk Assessment
• EPA’s adoption of a formal risk assessment process includes
– Data collection and evaluation
– Toxicity assessment
– Exposure assessment
– Risk characterization
• Risk assessment is considered to be site-specific.
Risk Assessment
• Data Collection and Evaluation
– Gathering and analyzing site-specific data relevant to human health concerns.
– When collecting background information, it is important to identify the following:
• Possible contaminants
• Concentrations of the contaminants, characteristics of sources, chemical’s release potential
• Characteristics of environmental setting that impacts transport, fate, and persistence of the
contaminants
Risk Assessment
• Toxicity Assessment
– The process of determining the relationship between the exposure to a contaminant
and the increased likelihood of the occurrence or severity of adverse effects.
– This includes
• Hazard identification – determines whether exposure to a contaminant causes increased adverse
effects for humans and to what level of severity.
• Dose-response evaluation – uses quantitative information on the dose of the contaminant and relates
it to the incidence of adverse reactions in an exposed population.
• What is a Dose?
– The mass of chemical received by the animal or exposed individual.
– Dose differs from the concentration of the compound in the medium (air, water, or
soil)
Risk Assessment
• Dose-response Curve
– Relationship of organism response to dose
– LD50, lethal dose for 50% of the animals
• NOAEL
– No observed adverse effect level
Risk Assessment
• Dose-response Curve
– No fixed dose to rely on
– Individual responses to dose may vary
– LD50 may be misleading
– Even the slope may not be sufficient to
protect the hypersensitive individuals
Risk Assessment
• Carcinogenic Dose-response Curve
– No threshold dose below which the risk is zero. This means No NOAEL and the
dose-response curve passes through the origin
– A linearized multistage model selected by EPA assumes that
• We can extrapolate from high doses to low doses with a straight line
• At low dose, the slope of the dose response curve is represented by a slope factor (SF)
(kg.day/mg)
– Risk of cancer is calculated as follows: • C = chemical concentration(mg/L)
• CR = contact rate (L/d)
• Risk = dose x toxicity = CDI x CSF • EFD = exposure frequency and duration (often calculated EF and ED)
• EF = exposure frequency (days/yr)
– CDI: Chronic Daily Intake (mg/kg body weight.d) • ED = exposure duration (years)
(𝐶𝑅)(𝐸𝐹𝐷) 1 • BW = body weight (kg)
𝐶𝐷𝐼 = 𝐶 • AT = averaging time period over which exposure is averaged (in
𝐵𝑊 𝐴𝑇 days) (Life time exposure 75 years x 365 days/yr)
– CSF: Cancer Slope Factor. Slope of the dose-response curve for carcinogenic materials.
Toxicological Terms
• Acute Toxicity
– An adverse effect that has a rapid onset, short course and pronounced symptoms
• Chronic Toxicity
– An adverse effect that frequently takes a long time to run its course and initial onset of
symptoms may go undetected.
• Subacute Toxicity
– Subacute toxicity is measured using daily dosing during the first 10% of the
organism’s normal life expectancy and checking for effects throughout the normal
lifetime.
Risk Assessment
• Exposure Assessment
– Estimate the magnitude of exposure to chemicals of potential concern
– Magnitude of exposure is based on chemical intake and pathways of exposure
• Different mediums will have different route of exposure and additional variables are used to estimate
intake.
– Specific equations exists for mediums and routes of exposure
• Risk Characterization
– All data collected from exposure and toxicity assessment are reviewed to confirm
qualitative and quantitative conclusions about risk.
Potential Contaminated Media and Routes of Exposure
Media Routes of Potential Exposure
Groundwater Ingestion, dermal contact, inhalation during showering
Surface water Ingestion, dermal contact, inhalation during showering
Sediment Ingestion, dermal contact
Air Inhalation of airborne (vapor phase) chemicals (indoor and outdoor)
Inhalation of particulates (indoor and outdoor)
Soil/dust Incidental ingestion, dermal contact
Food Ingestion
Risk Management
• Establishment of ZERO RISK can not be achieved.
• Risk management is performed to decide the magnitude of risk that is tolerable in specific
circumstances.
• To reduce risk, risk manager’s options may include:
– Change the environment
– Modify the exposure
– Compensate for the effects
• Reduce contaminant concentration through engineering measures
• Modify the exposure by limiting the intake by providing warnings on dietary restrictions or
• Restrict access to contaminated environment to reduce exposure time
Example
• The National Ambient Air Quality Standard for sulfur dioxide is 80 μg/m3.
Assuming a lifetime exposure (24h/d, 365 days/yr) for an adult male of
average body weight, what is the estimated lifetime CDI for this
concentration? Assume the exposure duration equals the lifetime.
• Estimate the chronic daily intake of a carcinogen from exposure to a city
water supply that contains a concentration of 0.5 mg/L in drinking water.
Assume the exposed individual is an adult male who consumes water at the
adult rate for 70 years. Use the EPA lifetime exposure of 75 years. Estimate
the cancer risk of the carcinogen given a cancer slope factor of 0.34
kg.day/mg.
