What the new expenditure survey says about poverty

K N Ninan
28 Mar 2024
The publication of a fact sheet by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO),
containing the results of the NSS Household Consumer Expenditure Survey (HCES) data
for 2022-23, a decade after the publication of the last survey data in 2011-12, has
again sparked a debate regarding poverty in India. Using the 2022-23 data on
average monthly per capita consumer expenditure (MPCE) for rural and urban areas,
some experts have gone overboard in claiming poverty has been nearly eradicated in
India.
For instance, NITI Aayog CEO B V R Subrahmanyan claimed poverty in rural India,
estimated at around 25.7 percent of the population in 2011-12, has declined to
below 5 percent. Economist Surjit S Bhalla went further and claimed poverty has
shrunk to just 2 percent.
These claims seem intriguing, especially since the government has promised free
supply of foodgrains to 60 percent of India�s population for the next five years.
Comparable history shows that the East Asian economies experienced sharp declines
in poverty only at high economic growth rates. China, for instance, reported a
sharp decline in poverty levels only when its GDP growth exceeded 10 percent
between 1978 to 2010. India�s GDP growth has ranged between 3.8 and 7 percent in
the last five years and the GDP shrank 5.83 percent in 2020 because of the
pandemic.
The government junked the NSS�s 2017-18 survey on grounds of data quality, although
the survey had used the same methodology as the 2011-12 survey. Critics suggest the
reasons for not releasing the results were different�it, for the first time in four
decades, suggested that real MPCE had declined 3.7 percent from Rs 1,501 in 2011-12
to Rs 1,446 in 2017-18, implying poverty had increased. The decline was sharper in
rural India (8.8 percent) compared to that in urban India (2.2 percent). This was
embarrassing on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. A 2022 World Bank
report suggested 56 million people in India fell below the poverty line of $2.15
per day in 2020.
The 2022-23 NSS survey, thus, makes a sharp departure from 2011-12, in which
households in rural and urban areas were categorised into three groups and selected
on criteria such as land possessed in rural areas, and possession of one or more
cars for non-commercial use in urban areas.
The 2011-12 survey covered 347 items, whereas the 2022-23 survey covered 405. In
place of a single questionnaire and single visit to canvass data from the sample
households, the 2022-23 survey used four sets of questionnaires with multiple
visits. The survey also presents data on the average MPCE after imputing the value
of freebies provided to households such as free foodgrains, fuel, laptops and
bicycles.
The fact sheet doesn�t present data on the distribution of households by these
categories. Is the sample representative of rural and urban populations? What
proportion of rural households owned lands? Similarly, what proportion of urban
households owned cars? What is the weight assigned to urban households owning or
not owning cars in the sample and, similarly, for rural land-owning and landless
households? Have these been accounted for while estimating the average MPCE?
Putting aside these comparability issues, let us assess the estimates. The average
MPCEs for rural and urban India were Rs 3,773 and Rs 6,459, respectively. For the
bottom 5 percent of the rural population, this figure was Rs 1,373 and Rs 2,001 for
the urban population. These figures for the top 5 percent of the rural and urban
areas were Rs 10,501 and Rs 20,824. It is a pity that even after a decade, the
average real MPCE in both rural and urban India has not even doubled (from Rs 2,760
and Rs 4,865 in 2011-12).
In terms of the poverty line for rural areas suggested by the Tendulkar Committee
(Rs 1,575 at 2022-23 prices), the bottom 5 percent of the rural population fall
below the line. If we consider the poverty line suggested by the Rangarajan
Committee (Rs 1,876 at 2022-23 prices), then the bottom 20 percent falls below the
line. If we include the imputed value of the so-called freebies, the bottom 5
percent of the rural population are below the poverty line by the Tendulkar
Committee, whereas by the Rangarajan Committee�s calculation, the bottom 20 percent
fall below the poverty line.
Despite all the hype about the rapid development in recent years in Uttar Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha and Chhattisgarh, it is distressing to
note that the standard of living measured in terms of the average MPCE in rural
areas of these states (Rs 2,466 to Rs 3,384) are not only below the national
average but lag far behind the northwestern and southern states. For instance, the
average MPCE for rural areas was the highest for Kerala (Rs 5,924), followed by
Himachal Pradesh (Rs 5,561), Punjab (Rs 5,315), Tamil Nadu (Rs 5,310), Andhra
Pradesh (Rs 4,870), Telangana (Rs 4,802) and Karnataka (Rs 4,397).
The average MPCE (Rs 3,798) for rural areas in Gujarat was slightly higher than the
national average (Rs 3,773). If the imputed value of freebies is included, the
average MPCE (Rs 3,820) falls below the national average.
Interestingly, Rajasthan fared well, with the average MPCE (Rs 4,263) in rural
areas being well above the national average and other so-called BIMARU states.
The situation of those self-employed in agriculture, casual labourers, and
scheduled tribes and castes in rural areas are distressing. India�s quest for
emerging as the third largest economy in the world will be meaningless if the
benefits are not shared proportionately by them all.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2024/Mar/27/what-the-new-expenditure-
survey-says-about-poverty

A basic test of legitimacy for elections 2024

Kaleeswaram Raj
28 Mar 2024
Elections in themselves are not reliable indicators of a democracy. They happen
also in populist autocracies ranging from Russia to Bangladesh.
Take the Russian case. The Central Election Commission of Russia declared that
President Vladimir Putin won about 88 percent of the vote in the recent polls. Many
of Putin�s critics were either imprisoned or forced to quit politics. Some others,
including Boris Nemtsov and Alexei Navalny, died in mysterious circumstances. This
does not mean that Putin lacks popular support. Many feel that under his
leadership, Russia is formidable enough to defend the challenges from the West and
that the country is progressing.
Let us come to the Indian scenario. According to the latest global attitudes survey
conducted by the Pew Research Center, a majority of respondents were of the view
that either an authoritarian rule or a military rule would be a better fit for
India. Several countries have had to pay a heavy cost in the past because of the
people�s affinity for autocratic regimes.
B R Ambedkar, who said democracy is only a top dressing in India, is now proven to
be correct. His fear against idolatry in politics�as distinct from that in
religion�endangering democracy was prophetic. Idolatry is antithetical to
constitutionalism, since the Constitution is about institutions rather than
individuals. The Constitution does not believe in personal glory.
Indian elections are a process with multiple components and stakeholders. The
fairness of elections depends upon the interplay between these factors. It always
required protection from money power, muscle power and state power. Article 324(2)
of the Constitution says that till parliament makes a law, the chief election
commissioner (CEC) and election commissioners (EC) will be appointed by the
president. This provision effectively ensured the predominance of the executive of
the day in selecting the CEC and ECs.
The Supreme Court, therefore, felt an independent body alone could have appointed
independent CEC and ECs. Thus, in the Anoop Baranwal case, the court evolved a
committee comprising the prime minister, the leader of the opposition and the chief
justice of India for selecting the CEC and ECs. The judgement, delivered on March
1, 2023, stated, �It is important that the appointment must not be overshadowed by
even a perception that a �yes man� will decide the fate of democracy and all that
it promises.� The court also said �an impartial mode of appointment of the members
requires, at the least, the banishing of the impression that the Election
Commission is appointed by less than fair means�.
What followed is a matter of concern. Parliament passed the Chief Election
Commissioner (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Act, 2023,
which came into force on January 2, 2024. Section 7 of the Act contemplated a
selection committee consisting of the prime minister, a minister chosen by the
prime minister and the leader of the opposition. After the promulgation of the new
law, one election commissioner retired and another resigned. New appointments were
sought for these vacancies. Thus, Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu were
appointed. They were chosen by the PM�s committee, as envisaged under the new law.
The Supreme Court, on March 22, 2024, dismissed petitions for staying the new
enactment and the new appointments based on it. Thus, at least for the time being,
the constitution bench decision in Anoop Baranwal remains wishful thinking or
judicial romanticism. The verdict is sabotaged by a majoritarian onslaught in
parliament.
The CEC and ECs have a duty to act fairly and effectively, and this is why the
independence of the body that selects them is important. After the declaration of
elections, in an ideal system, issues ranging from the freezing of the Congress�s
accounts to the detention of opposition leaders would call for effective
intervention by the Election Commission. The office must ensure a level playing
field between the political players. As a fourth-branch institution, its
independence should be akin to that of the judiciary.
It is duty-bound to invoke the prescriptions in the Representation of the People
Act, 1951, Section 123 of which deals with corrupt practices such as bribery. An
appeal for vote on the grounds of religion, race, caste, community or language is
also a corrupt practice. Section 125 bars �promoting enmity between classes in
connection with election�. A poll panel should be able to enforce the law by acting
independently, as demonstrated by T N Seshan, whose tenure was an exception, rather
than the rule.
Disabling an opposition party from campaigning by freezing its bank accounts, while
the ruling regime has captured a major share of the electoral bonds, is clearly
unfair. It demolishes the last traces of a level playing field. The possibility of
post-election horse-trading and its ostensible link with big money is, sadly, a
part of today�s political industry. Ironically, as history would tell us, loss of
faith in democracy has only helped demagogues.
An inherent irony of constitutions is that some of them provide for their own
suspension or, at times, even their annihilation. Italian thinker Giorgio Agamben
has written extensively on the �state of exception�, an idea introduced by German
philosopher Carl Schmitt. In such a scenario, Rule of Law surrenders before
political sovereignty. For example, Article 352 of our Constitution permits
proclamation of Emergency, which Indira Gandhi invoked. Yet, the election
thereafter was relatively fair, since the constitutional institutions remained
almost intact, enabling people to throw away the authoritarian regime.
Today, the institutions�ranging from parliament to the Union cabinet�are almost
reduced to being external structures or a hollow rhetoric. People are divided by
the regime on all possible counts. I have described this process as
�deconstitutionalisation�, which can happen to institutions as well as to
individuals. An opposition which is incarcerated, pauperised or divided marks our
journey towards an electoral autocracy. The Election Commission�s insensitivity to
concerns over the possibility of voting machine manipulation has also created a
trust deficit.
In many autocracies, the opposition does not believe in the fairness of elections,
which motivates them to boycott polls at times. Bangladesh is a recent example. The
Lok Sabha election of 2024 has almost lost its constitutional legitimacy. It could
be an election that has missed its meaning, content and purpose.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2024/Mar/27/a-basic-test-of-legitimacy-
for-elections-2024
The politics of humanitarian aid
March 28, 2024
T.S. TIRUMURTI
When United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that �100 percent of the
population in Gaza is at severe levels of acute food insecurity� and that is the
�first time an entire population has been so classified�, and, soon after, the U.S.
Congress proceeds to stop funding till March 2025 to the UN Relief and Works
Agency, or UNRWA (it is the only UN agency delivering lifesaving humanitarian aid
to millions of Palestine refugees living in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, East
Jerusalem, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria), then the politics of humanitarian aid is
back in full play � by implication, politics with human life, with Palestinian
lives.
How bad is the humanitarian crisis in Gaza? | Explained
Ironically, this comes at a time when some western countries, which had announced
defunding UNRWA, have �realised� that Israeli allegations are unsubstantiated and
are resuming funding. But there is a crucial political angle. Defunding UNRWA would
mean tacitly derecognising Palestinian refugees and effectively killing one of the
contentious unresolved issues for Palestinian statehood � right of return of
refugees. This is what Israel had demanded all along.
There is no free lunch. There is no free lunch in geopolitics either. Even if it
means starving millions to achieve one�s political or military goals. This is not
just about Gaza, though Gaza is the latest example.
Gaza waits for a pier
The announcement by U.S President Joe Biden to build a temporary pier off the Gaza
coast in the Mediterranean Sea to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians holed up
in Gaza is an example of how a simple act of sending food and medicines to a
population that has been starved of both can become hostage to politics. All Israel
has to do is to allow food convoys to go in from a land opening in Rafah or Karem
Abu Salem. And all that the U.S. has to do is to ask Israel, a country dependent
fully on the U.S. to prosecute this war, not to block aid convoys. But the U.S. did
not ask Israel this. Instead, it undertook the air drop of food packets � 38,000
packets for 1.4 million Palestinians in Rafah. In a tragic incident in Gaza,
Israeli soldiers shot and killed 112 Palestinians and injured hundred others who
were waiting to collect food. Twelve people drowned while trying to retrieve
packets which fell into the sea. A political problem is being resolved militarily
by treating it as a logistical problem.
UN chief says it's time to 'truly flood' Gaza with aid and calls starvation there
an outrage
As UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said recently in Rafah, �From this
crossing, we see the heartbreak and heartlessness of it all. A long line of blocked
relief trucks on one side of the gates, the long shadow of starvation on the
other... it is a moral outrage.� Stopping humanitarian aid is a serious violation
of international law. It also violates the interim order of the International Court
of Justice for ensuring �effective and immediate� aid to Gaza. Now, Palestinians
wait for a pier.
In a significant, if much belated, development on March 25, the UN Security Council
(UNSC) passed a resolution calling for �an immediate ceasefire for Ramadan �
leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire� but also ensuring the release of
hostages and humanitarian access. The U.S. abstained on the vote. However, as the
French Ambassador to the UN warned, the crisis is not over and that �after Ramadan,
which ends in two weeks, it will have to establish a permanent ceasefire�.
Starving Gazans scramble for aid drops to scrounge a can of food
But first, will Israel respect the resolution and observe a ceasefire at all? And
allow humanitarian aid? Israel is in no mood to do so. For Hamas to agree to return
Israeli hostages, both dead and alive, they want Palestinian prisoners in exchange.
The fear is that after that exchange, and after Ramadan, Israel will be free to
resume the war � this time as a fight to the finish where Hamas will hold no cards
to negotiate for peace. The U.S. has backtracked by dubbing the resolution as �non-
binding� and giving Israel a free hand to continue its bombing. And, politics
triumphs. Not even a UN Security Council resolution can get humanitarian aid to the
Palestinians in Gaza.
When India sent aid
Using humanitarian aid for political ends in conflicts is as old as diplomacy
itself. In a rare occurrence, we have had a State government in India provide
humanitarian aid to a country. In 2008, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam under Chief
Minister M. Karunanidhi of Tamil Nadu sent 80,000 �family packets� of food and
clothes to the thousands of displaced Sri Lankan Tamil civilians, who the
retreating Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam used as a human shield.
A brief history of starvation as a �war crime� | Explained
This was the DMK�s political message, both to Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, that it
cared for Sri Lankan Tamils. To ensure that these packets reached Tamils behind the
LTTE�s frontlines, the Government of India (the DMK was a coalition partner at that
time), requested the International Committee of the Red Cross to distribute them.
In 2022, the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister (and Karunanidhi�s son), M.K. Stalin, did
one better and sent nearly 10,000 tonnes of food and medical aid to Sri Lanka
during that country�s economic crisis.
During COVID-19, even as vaccines were hoarded by the West, India sent vaccines to
over 100 countries and showed compassion in diplomacy, demonstrating that not
everything is hostage to realpolitik.
The case of Afghanistan
In fact, when India was in UNSC (2021-2022), it has on numerous instances been
witness to aid being used as a political weapon. For example, due to pressure from
the P-5 (the five permanent members of the UNSC) and others to establish political
relations with the Taliban, in December 2021, the UNSC agreed to open-ended
humanitarian aid to Taliban, even without any progress on benchmarks set out in
Council resolution, especially on the status of women. After two years, with aid
freely flowing to the Taliban, the status of Afghan women has only deteriorated.
But the world now has Ukraine and Gaza on its hands and would rather forget the
women of Afghanistan.
Israel may be using starvation as 'weapon of war': U.N.
The UNSC has also witnessed politics trump humanitarian aid be it in Syria,
Ethiopia, Yemen and elsewhere, placing innocent civilians in great distress. In
Syria, since the U.S., Turkey and western and Gulf backers failed to overthrow
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, they now play politics with aid by stationing
their troops in northern Syria and regulating aid only to Syrians under their
control through their checkpoints. This was the case in Yemen. In Ethiopia, since
the Tigray People�s Liberation Front (TPLF) was backed by the West, humanitarian
aid was used as a tool to subject the Ethiopian government to political pressure.
It is now the turn of Sudan. Nearly 25 million Sudanese, including 14 million
children, wait for elusive external aid as internal conflict rages on and barely 5%
of estimated funding requirement has been met so far.
And so, around the world, people wait patiently for food and medicine, amid fights
and leaders paying scant regard to their fate.
T.S. Tirumurti was Ambassador/Permanent Representative of India to the United
Nations, New York (2020-22) when India was in the UN Security Council, and,
earlier, first Representative of India to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza (1996-
98)
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-politics-of-humanitarian-aid/
article67999116.ece

Preventing a China-Taiwan conflict

March 28, 2024
ARZAN TARAPORE
With expanding national interests, India has stronger compulsions to act against
far-off hazards. India finds its interests entangled in disputes on the far edges
of Asia, including in Taiwan. China claims Taiwan as its own, and is feverishly
preparing to seize the island by force if necessary, while the U.S. has
increasingly clearly signaled that it would probably fight to defend Taiwan. India
is highly unlikely to fight in a conflict over Taiwan. It has vital economic and
security interests, and valuable policy levers, to ensure that such a conflict
never happens.
Maintain the status quo
New Delhi has three main reasons to do so. First, it has a stake in the status quo,
with Taiwan as a self-governing territory that does not declare independence. India
and Taiwan have expanded trade seven-fold since 2001 and are exploring a possible
free trade agreement. The Taiwanese firm, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing
Corporation, has partnered with the Tata Group to build India�s first semiconductor
fabrication plant. An agreement was signed recently to send Indian workers to
Taiwan. India�s industry, critical supply chains, and overseas population are all
increasingly invested in an enduring peaceful status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
Second, any Chinese aggression against Taiwan would be catastrophically costly for
India. Such a scenario would, in effect, cripple global trade with China and
Taiwan, which would create disruptions throughout Asia and West Asia. A recent
Bloomberg study estimates that the costs of a conflict would amount to over 10% of
global GDP. India�s economy would suffer a greater shock than the U.S. economy and
its most valuable sectors, from electronics to pharmaceuticals, would run dry of
components and materials.
A protracted or general war between China and the U.S., spreading beyond Taiwan,
could spill over in multiple directions. It could ignite the already tense India-
China land border. It could wipe out or take offline sizeable portions of Chinese,
American, and other regional countries� industrial capacity, on which the world
depends. And it could raise the risk of unthinkable nuclear escalation. A conflict
over Taiwan is something that India simply cannot afford, especially as it seeks
stability and growth for national development.
China formally restores diplomatic relations with Nauru after Pacific island
nation cut Taiwan ties
Third, while a conflict itself would be calamitous, its outcomes could further
worsen India�s long-term international position, depending on which side prevails.
A limited conflict, where China has relative advantages of concentrating force near
Taiwan, is also the most likely scenario to end in a Chinese victory over Taiwan
and a corresponding defeat of the U.S. and its allies. If China, through the
crucible of battle, thereby displaces the U.S. as the region�s pre-eminent military
power, it would undermine the region�s entire security architecture. American
security guarantees would be less credible, neighbours may seek to assure their
security with more arms or offensive postures, and China�s military would be free
to further project unchecked influence, including into the Indian Ocean. It may
even feel emboldened to press its claims on Arunachal Pradesh. India is not an
American ally, but it does depend on the U.S. for its military modernisation and a
broadly benign strategic environment.
What India can do
What, then, can India do to help prevent this calamity? Beijing�s strategy for
Taiwan uses all instruments of national power, from international law to economic
and political leverage, aside from military coercion. It would doubtless prefer to
pursue less costly and disruptive non-military ways as long as they remain viable.
Given the stakes involved, it would only resort to a military campaign once it is
satisfied that it has adequately set the conditions for victory. The military
balance across the Taiwan Strait will therefore be the most critical deterrent, but
non-belligerent states like India can buttress deterrence by convincing Beijing
that it has not adequately set the conditions.
India has six types of policy options at its fingertips: international law
arguments; building narratives opposed to aggression; coordinated diplomatic
messaging; economic de-risking; active information operations to support the
Taiwanese people; and military support to the U.S. forces in the Indian Ocean. Each
option can be calibrated to variable levels of ambition and political appetite; and
they can be adapted and applied by many other countries.
These options can also advance India�s grand strategic position, regardless of
their impact on the China-Taiwan dispute. Enacting these policies would, first and
foremost, lend India more leverage in its intensifying strategic competition with
China. They also offer additional pathways for India to deepen its cooperation with
the U.S., thereby accelerating its national rise. And they offer a wider agenda for
Indian international leadership, especially among countries of the Global South,
which otherwise would be passive or at best uncoordinated in deterring Chinese
aggression more broadly.
Such policies, therefore, are not a favour to Taiwan or the U.S.; they would be an
act of Indian self-interest. Depending on the political context, they may invite
Chinese retaliation, but no policy is cost-free, and India has recently shown a
tough willingness to weather Chinese opprobrium when necessary. India�s expanding
interests and ambitions suggest the need for different policy settings, and the
costs of such policies would be dwarfed by the costs of doing nothing.
Arzan Tarapore is a PhD Research Scholar at the Center for International Security
and Cooperation, Stanford University, U.S.
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/preventing-a-china-taiwan-conflict/
article67997669.ece

Telangana�s fiscal challenge

March 28, 2024
M RajeevM. RAJEEV
The Telangana government is facing an arduous task in fulfilling the six guarantees
that the Congress promised before being voted to power, thanks to the slow pace of
growth in revenue receipts.
The government has been struggling to raise resources for meeting its immediate
commitments including payment of salaries, pensions, and interests. The seriousness
of the situation can be gauged from the fact that close to half the revenue
receipts are being spent on these three heads alone, according to the provisional
figures released by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG).
Telangana continues to register slow pace of growth in revenue receipts at the end
of January
While tax revenue for the current fiscal is projected at ?1.52 lakh crore in the
budget estimates, expenditure on account of salaries/wages (?38,627 crore),
pensions (?13,024 crore), and interest payments (?22,407 crore) account for ?74,058
crore. This is in addition to subsidies, which amount to ?12,958 crore. The CAG
figures show that the State�s overall revenue receipts at the end of February stood
at ?1.51 lakh crore, 70.16% of ?2.16 lakh crore of the budget estimates, with just
a month left for the conclusion of the financial year.
In this backdrop, the implementation of the six guarantees is likely to be a
Herculean task for the new government. The guarantees announced in the run-up to
the Assembly elections include free bus travel for women across the State,
enhancement of health coverage under YSR Aarogya Sri from ?5 lakh to ?10 lakh,
supply of LPG cylinder at ?500, free power up to 200 units to eligible households
under the Gruha Jyoti scheme, houses to the poor under the Indiramma scheme, and a
sustenance allowance for women.
The State started implementing free bus travel for which it needs to reimburse more
than ?300 crore a month to the State Road Transport Corporation. It has started
enhancing the health coverage limit as well. The government made a provision of ?
53,196 crore in the ?2.75 lakh crore vote-on-account budget for 2024-25, for the
implementation of the six guarantees. The budget saw no hikes in taxes and duties
in any form. The government made a provision of ?2,418 crore for Gruha Jyoti for
the next fiscal. This takes the total allocation to Transco and distribution
companies to ?16,825 crore as the government affirmed its commitment to implement
24X7 free power supply to farmers. The government allocated ?7,740 crore for the
Indiramma housing scheme. It decided to sanction 3,500 houses to each of the 119
Assembly constituencies in the State. The actual burden on the exchequer on account
of implementation of the six guarantees is yet to be ascertained.
Though the government is keen to implement its guarantees, the mismatch in the
budget estimates and the actual estimates over consecutive years raises doubts over
the availability of the resources towards this end. The overall revenue receipts
till February end remained ?1.51 lakh crore against the ?2.16 lakh crore projected
in 2023-24. Of this, ?41,448 crore was in the form of borrowings and other
liabilities.
Another area where excess projection is leading to shortfall in the actuals is
grants in aid and contributions from the Central government. While the government
estimated ?41,259 crore revenue under the head for the fiscal, the actual
realisation till the end of February remained at just ?6,955 crore.
Govt. dispensed with wasteful expenditure to maintain fiscal discipline, says
Telangana Finance Minister
Telangana Deputy Chief Minister Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka admitted that the gap
between the estimates and actuals for the current fiscal could be as high as ?
70,000 crore. Substantiating his claim is the huge difference between the budget
estimates and actuals at the end of February.
Coupled with these are the restrictions imposed by the Union Finance Ministry on
the State�s market borrowings citing financial management. But these have been
relaxed to some extent after Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy and Mr. Bhatti
Vikramarka met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Finance Minister Nirmala
Sitharaman in January.
The State needs to explore new avenues to augment its resources and not just depend
on revenue through excise and sale land parcels. In addition, it should also focus
on areas where there are said to be leakages. These cause dents to the government
revenue and need to be fixed so that Telangana can can deal with challenges on the
financial front.
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article67998869.ece

Ashutosh Varshney writes on Kejriwal�s arrest: How much time does Indian democracy
have?
Ashutosh Varshney
March 28, 2024
What are the larger implications of Arvind Kejriwal�s arrest for India�s democracy?
And why has India�s ruling regime embarked on such an extreme move?
Two things are politically noteworthy about Kejriwal�s incarceration. First,
Kejriwal is not the only elected chief minister to be imprisoned. Hemant Soren,
Jharkhand�s chief minister, was also recently jailed. The more important point is
that other than Congress, Kejriwal leads the only Opposition party which rules in
more than one state.
The AAP has won subnational elections in Delhi twice and has won power in Punjab.
It has also developed a noticeable presence in Gujarat, which is the original home
base of the BJP regime. Secondly, Kejriwal�s prosecution unambiguously follows a
standard recent script. This newspaper has reported several times, including
recently, that Opposition politicians have been targeted in over 90 per cent of the
corruption-related prosecutions. Indeed, the weaponisation of corruption-probing
agencies becomes even clearer when we note that corruption charges are normally
relegated against those politicians who leave the Opposition and join the ruling
party.
For several years, the leading democracy rating institutions of the world have been
downgrading India�s democracy. But India was not the only country that was
identified as going through what has come to be called �democratic backsliding�.
This is important for it contradicts the notion that the rating agencies were anti-
India, which was one of the arguments BJP supporters often made. Viktor Orban�s
Hungary, Erdogan�s Turkey and even Donald Trump�s America were classified as
democratic backsliders.
By and large, two questions have marked the international assessment of a country�s
democratic performance. Is the country in question an electoral democracy? Is it
also a liberal democracy? The concept of electoral democracy is episodic, covering
only the elections. In comparison, the idea of liberal democracy covers not only
what happens during elections, but also the conduct of a polity in the four or five
years falling between two elections. If the electoral side of democracy asks
whether elections are free and fair, the concept of liberal democracy adds some
continuous features. Are citizens free to speak, or are they afraid to express
themselves?
Is civil society, the non-governmental sphere of a polity, which includes
associations and on some accounts the press as well, free or chained? Is there
freedom of religious practice? Are minority rights protected? The last is important
for majorities can protect their interests with the numerical power of vote in a
one-person-one-vote system, but minorities won�t have the numbers to protect
themselves without constitutional safeguards and their faithful implementation.
Using these theoretical foundations, democracy rating agencies in the last few
years have been calling India a mere electoral democracy, with its liberalism
seriously in decline. There have been various ways of putting it. Some say India
has become a �flawed democracy�, others that while political freedoms exist, civil
liberties have been seriously eroded. The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute
of Sweden, whose annual reports on democracy are very widely read, has gone the
farthest. Since 2020, it has been claiming that India has become an �electoral
autocracy�, meaning elections have become a sham.
Thus far, I have critiqued the V-Dem characterisation. My own argument has been
that India�s electoral vibrancy remains, making it an electoral democracy, but its
liberal features have declined to such an extent that it is no longer a liberal
democracy. One important, though not the only, reason for making the electoral
democracy claim was that nearly half of the states have been ruled by non-BJP
parties over the last decade. The new developments in India�s polity, including the
arrest of Kejriwal, now seriously challenge the future validity of the electoral
democracy claim.
The reasons for why this is so come from the well-established and widely accepted
claims of democratic theory. As seminally developed by the late Robert Dahl,
electoral democracy consists of two dimensions: Contestation and participation. The
former covers how freely and fairly the rulers can be contested in elections, and
the latter looks at how many people can participate in voting.
India�s problem is not with participation. Both in 2014 and 2019, the turnout
exceeded 65 per cent. Comparatively speaking, such numbers signal vigorous
electoral participation. In some states, the turnout has been even higher.
It is on contestation that the fault lines are now clearly visible and deepening.
Initially, Delhi�s axe fell on non-governmental organisations, universities,
intellectuals, artists, news channels, films � all of which reduced the liberal
democracy score for India. The climate of fear is now extending to electoral
democracy itself. Imprisoning Opposition leaders and freezing the bank accounts of
the biggest Opposition party that got roughly 20 per cent of the overall vote in
the last two national elections are tactics aimed at crippling the major Opposition
forces. As a result, contestation of the rulers, an essential principle of
electoral democracy, can become critically less free and less fair. It is also
likely to be riddled with fear, for no one can predict who will be targeted next
for imprisonment. Unless some constitutionally independent agencies step in to
arrest the rot, India threatens to become a democracy by fear.
Why is India�s ruling regime following this path? Only hypotheses can be presented.
If India�s rulers wish to bring in a polity infused with Hindu nationalist
principles, which the current Constitution does not allow, laws will have to
passed, some with two-thirds parliamentary majority. That requires a minimum of 364
seats in the Lok Sabha. The much announced projection of the BJP winning 370 seats
is consistent with this numerical logic. The rulers perhaps don�t wish to leave
intact any possibility of not reaching that target. That Shakespearean phrase �
�making assurance doubly safe� � propels them towards a strategy of maiming the
Opposition and reducing election uncertainties to a minimum.
The rulers also believe that the electorate will not care for such strategies. That
may well turn out to be right. Comparative evidence tells us that even democratic
polities go through ups and downs in their support for authoritarianism. There are
moments when public opinion can be created to buttress brutal curtailments of
freedom and radical political alterations.
It used to be asked how long can a liberal democracy be throttled before electoral
democracy itself comes into serious question. Short of some major surprises, which
can�t be wholly ruled out, India may well be heading in that direction.
The writer is Sol Goldman Professor of International Studies and the Social
Sciences at Brown University, where he also directs the Saxena Center for
Contemporary South Asia at the Watson Institute
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/ashutosh-varshney-kejriwal-
arrest-time-indian-democracy-have-9236614/

How to fix India�s urban water crisis, from Bengaluru to Chennai and beyond
Sachin Tiwale
March 28, 2024
Bengaluru is experiencing its worst water crisis in decades. The weak monsoon last
year has compounded an already difficult situation caused by unregulated urban
growth and depleting groundwater resources. Chennai too has experienced shortages
in recent years. Several other Indian cities are under similar stress, indicating
that water supply is rarely factored in urban planning.
It�s also worrying that a large section of India�s urban population does not
receive safe drinking water. Last month, the Pey Jal Survekshan revealed that only
10 per cent of Indian cities meet drinking water standards.
The quality of water is known to deteriorate in the distribution network because of
multiple factors � compounds from old pipes releasing into the water, sediment
buildup and the accumulation of pathogens. This is a concern in several places,
including developed countries. The problem gets compounded in Indian cities because
of leaky pipes, many of which are close to sewer lines.
In the last two decades, this deficit has been exploited by companies manufacturing
water purifiers and those selling packaged drinking water (PDW). Household
dependence on drinking water sold in 20-litre jars has increased across the
country. According to a recent study, 38 per cent of households in Kolkata and 70
per cent of households in Chennai routinely purchase water jars despite having
access to piped water.
The PDW model that relies on decentralised treatment of water and non-pipe mode of
delivery has evolved in the last decade-and-a-half � it involves a range of players
including multinational companies and local operators who provide doorstep service.
With an independent water source, mainly groundwater, and an established chain of
manufacturers, distributors, and retailers, the model scores on the reliability
criteria.
According to the standards of the Central Public Health and Environmental
Engineering Organisation � the technical wing of the Union Ministry of Housing and
Urban Affairs that sets norms for water supply and sanitation � Indian cities have
a daily per capita water requirement of 135 litres per capita. Under the current
piped water supply approach, all of this water is treated to meet drinking water
quality standards. However, a person requires only a fraction of this amount for
drinking and cooking purposes. The practice of treating enormous quantities of
water to drinking water quality standards and distributing it through a network
that cannot guarantee safe delivery needs examination. Considering the capital-
intensive nature of the distribution network and constraints on repair and
maintenance, we need to segregate water for drinking purposes and other domestic
uses.
The model of decentralised treatment and non-pipe mode of drinking water delivery,
followed by the PDW industry is promising. Bengaluru�s recent crisis has pushed the
city�s authorities to experiment with water ATMs. Such initiatives are at an early
stage in some other cities including Delhi.
There are caveats, though. Not everyone can afford water sold by private players.
The WHO�s concerns about the reverse osmosis method used by the industry to purify
water � it robs the water of essential minerals � are also valid. Acknowledging the
feasibility of decentralised water treatment and supply does not rule out
conversations on appropriate technologies. More experiments to evolve affordable
and context-specific institutional arrangements, including those related to
technology, need to be undertaken. Piped water supply too evolved over centuries
because of a series of technological and institutional improvements. It is time to
look for an alternative model of water supply to overcome the water quality issues.
Decentralised treatment and non-pipe mode of service delivery are worth
experimenting with.
The writer is a Fellow, Centre for Environment and Development, Ashoka Trust for
Research in Ecology and the Environment, Bengaluru
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/how-to-fix-indias-urban-water-
crisis-from-bengaluru-to-chennai-and-beyond-9236931/

Welfare is on the agenda of all political parties. But is it adequate?

Ravi Srivastava
March 28, 2024
Social security is a human right, according to the United Nations Declaration of
Human Rights. The ILO�s Recommendation of 2012 has called for all nations to
institute a �social protection floor�. According to the ILO�s World Social
Protection Report, 2022, India spends too little on social protection. As the
events of 2020 and 2021 reminded us, precariousness and vulnerabilities remain
concerns, with informal employment in India as high as 90 per cent of the
workforce.
However, between 2019 and 2024, we have seen a chaotic, slow, but steady expansion
of social protection programmes and schemes for vulnerable households. These have
largely been impelled by political-economy considerations. A Crisil report in 2023
found that in the 11 states studied, the share of the economy (gross state domestic
product) devoted to social welfare expenditures increased from 1.2-1.3 per cent on
average in 2017-18 to about 1.6 per cent in 2022-23. This trend has continued in
2023-24 with several newly elected state governments opting for social protection
measures. In the last few weeks, three states � Himachal, Delhi and Chhattisgarh �
have announced new income transfer schemes for women.
It�s well known that, to begin with, the central government opposed the expansion
of social welfare programmes, including the MGNREGA. However, an income transfer
scheme for farmers was introduced just before the 2019 general elections. During
the Covid pandemic, the MGNREGA and the National Food Security Scheme were
expanded. Currently, cereal distribution is free for 800 million households under
the National Food Security Act. For a government that has proclaimed a dramatic
decline in poverty and hunger and a doubling of farmers� income, these schemes can
find justification only on political grounds.
In the run-up to the 2019 general elections, the Congress had mooted a modified
basic income scheme, �Nyay�. Versions of it were implemented by governments run by
the party in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Non-Congress and non-BJP governments in
states such as Delhi, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have also implemented
several new measures in the last five years. BJP-ruled states, notably Madhya
Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, have not lagged far behind. Congress-run governments in
states such as Karnataka and Telangana and earlier in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh
have targeted farmers, women, and the youth with social security schemes.
Increasingly, women have come to occupy centrestage in the emerging social
protection architecture. Schemes covering education expenses, free public
transport, subsidised LPG, and cash transfers have been floated. As noted earlier,
two states � Delhi and Himachal under AAP and Congress governments � have announced
cash income transfer schemes for women, whereas the new BJP government in
Chhattisgarh has announced the Mahtari Vandan programme. Delhi has set aside Rs
2,000 crore in its 2024-25 budget for the implementation of the scheme.
The Centre made a beginning by launching the Ujjwala scheme in 2016, providing
subsidised LPG gas cylinders to poor women. The scheme has now been extended till
February 2025.
When the Covid emergency struck in 2020, the Modi government announced the transfer
of three instalments of Rs 500 each to women holding Jan Dhan Yojana bank accounts.
Regular cash transfer schemes for women, with varying eligibility conditions, have
been implemented in several states. The �Ladli Behna� scheme of the last Madhya
Pradesh government was seen as a popular programme. Under it, Rs 1,250 per month
was given to poor women beneficiaries. Tamil Nadu has recently implemented the
Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Scheme under which Rs 1,000 is transferred per month to
women above the age of 21 with a household income of less than Rs 2.5 lakh. Under
its guarantee programmes, the Congress has introduced the Mahalakshmi and the Gruha
Lakshmi cash transfer programmes for women in Telangana and Karnataka respectively.
Focusing on women is seen as good politics. It�s also good economics. Several
studies have shown that cash transfers to women increase the proportion of
expenditure on items of basic consumption and education. This, in turn, benefits
households, and under certain conditions, has positive implications for women�s
empowerment.
Other than in Rajasthan, the social protection programmes introduced since 2019
have no legal backing � they are rooted in paternalism and can be changed or
withdrawn through administrative orders. Even the names of the women-centred income
transfer programmes, crafted by diverse governments, are based on perceptions of
women�s role in male-headed families. Women here are seen only as beneficiaries.
That the central government�s schemes have consistently revolved around the persona
(and the image) of the Prime Minister does little to change their strong
paternalistic pitch � this has remained so even after the shift to the omnibus
canvass of �Modi guarantees�. In contrast, the Congress has often evoked the
language of rights and justice (�Nyay�) and it is also credited with introducing
the MGNREGA and the NFSA. But on the ground, its schemes too have remained purely
administrative, especially in recent times.
In the absence of a legal guarantee, is there any assurance of the stability of
such welfare schemes? The manner in which schemes were introduced in the manifestos
of political parties and their continued implementation suggests that political
competition could be a key stabilising force. States which face the least political
competition (such as Gujarat) have been the least proactive in introducing fresh
programmes. In contrast, the new governments of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have
rejigged, rather than withdrawn, popular schemes put in place by their
predecessors.
As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approach, the Congress has already announced �Yuva
Nyay� and �Nari Nyay� schemes. We are likely to see more such announcements by
other political parties. But to reiterate a point made earlier, the social
protection architecture that is emerging is chaotic. It�s also unbalanced � groups
such as the very young and the old, who have little political leverage, seem to be
losing out on even existing levels of protection. Moreover, work-related
precarities have taken a back seat. The Social Security Code 2020 remains
unimplemented even today. Thus, the goal of instituting a credible social
protection framework, consistent with India�s level of development, remains very
much a work-in-progress.
The writer was member of the erstwhile National Commission for Enterprises in the
Unorganised Sector
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/welfare-is-on-the-agenda-of-all-
political-parties-but-is-it-adequate-9236941/

The Kejriwal that could have been

K J Alphons
March 28, 2024
In 2011, when Arvind Kejriwal announced the India Against Corruption (IAC)
movement, I was deeply moved. I had then just joined the BJP and, with my party�s
permission, I spoke at eight IAC rallies in the southern states and even went to
Pragati Maidan, where activist Anna Hazare and my friend Kiran Bedi were the
foremost among those supporting the movement. I was impressed by the Kejriwal
movement because I had launched a similar movement to fight corruption, called
Janashakthi, in 1994. I was the commissioner of the Delhi Development Authority
from 1992 to 1997, fighting the massive corruption in the city and knocking down
illegal buildings that belonged to the mafia. Eventually, we pulled down 14,310
illegal buildings, starting with the 200,000 sq ft building belonging to Congress
leader H K L Bhagat.
Janashakthi had no intention of becoming a political party, although we wanted to
be a corrective force. I believed that being a bureaucrat did not prevent me from
being a corrective force.
I admired Kejriwal�s courage when he quit the service and transformed the India
Against Corruption movement into a political party because for any significant
change, one needs political power. I quit the Indian Administrative Service at 52
and got elected as an independent MLA in 2006, supported by the Left. I quit the
Kerala Assembly on March 16, 2011, the day I was re-nominated by the Left Front to
contest again because I felt that the country was corrupt to the core. I believed
that the only person who could set things right was Narendra Modi and so, I joined
the BJP. Most people said that I had acted stupidly because back in 2011, there was
no sign that Modi would become the Prime Minister. The then CPM secretary and
current Chief Minister of Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan, told me, �Alphons, don�t leave.
You will be in the next cabinet.� I told him that I was leaving as I saw Modi as
the only hope for the country.
When the Aam Aadmi Party was launched, I saw plenty of political space for it.
While I had no plans to join the party, even though I had supported IAC, I had
great hope that this young man, Kejriwal, would revolutionise governance.
Instead, he has proved to be a disappointment. I know this because I have been
living in Delhi since Kejriwal came to power. He promised a lot and delivered
little. He has indeed provided free electricity and water to the poorest. But it is
easy to give freebies. There was so much that Kejriwal, as chief minister, could
have done in India�s capital, even though his government did not have power over
police and land. Yet, Delhi is completely unlivable, because Kejriwal talked a lot
and did precious little.
He impressed India as an anti-corruption crusader, calling for the abolition of the
entitlements of the powerful. He wanted the red siren, a symbol of privilege, to be
done away with. He dressed simply and said that he would live in a two-bedroom
house. That same man then renovated his official residence reportedly for Rs 45
crore. As a Union Minister, I was allowed to spend only Rs 10 lakh.
AAP followers and the INDIA front have raised a hue and cry over Kejriwal�s arrest
by the Enforcement Directorate (ED). Let us look at the facts. The ED had issued
him nine notices. He had every opportunity to explain himself. What was the sense
of entitlement that led him to refuse to appear before them? Does he think that he
is above the law?
The other question is, with the elections happening soon, was this the right time
to arrest Kejriwal? Would doing so not stifle the voice of democracy, given that he
was a star campaigner for the Opposition alliance? But when a crime is committed,
there is no right or wrong time to nab the culprits. Kejriwal was considered a
�holy cow�, so the central agencies gave him a long rope. He went to the courts,
but they looked at the evidence and refused to intervene.
When asked about Kejriwal�s arrest, Anna Hazare, who was the heart and soul of the
IAC movement, had this to say: �As you sow, so shall you reap. He has been arrested
because of his deeds. Now that he has been arrested, the courts and government will
decide what�s proper and what�s improper.�
The writer is a former Union minister. He currently practices in the Supreme Court
and was a 1979 batch officer of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS)
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-kejriwal-that-could-have-
been-9236942/
Pop faith
Nalini Singh
March 28, 2024
In the months leading up to the general elections, at least four images emerge as
the leitmotif of this �festival of democracy�. One, Prime Minister Narendra Modi�s
underwater dive with a peacock feather tucked into the sash around his midriff, to
lay at the feet of Lord Krishna in the submerged city of Dwarka (with a TV
cameraman to chronicle the �very divine experience�); two, the VVIPs massed at the
consecration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, soaking in the spiritual atmosphere even
as they craned their necks to see and be seen by PM Modi (on live TV); three, Nita
Ambani�s �Vishwambhari Stuti� dance performance in a red-gold Manish Malhotra sari
at her son�s pre-wedding celebrations in Jamnagar (captured professionally by high-
end TV cameras) and four, the live telecast of the press conference in Varanasi,
after court orders allowed Hindus to extend their area of worship in the Gyanvapi
mosque.
These pictures suggest that the practice of Hinduism may be changing, and the
metamorphosis is in sharp focus in the last lap of the 2024 General Elections.
While the 2019 elections were centred on the Pulwama attack and the rising
nationalistic fervour, in 2024, the emotional quotient has shifted to sumptuous
rituals and the performative aspects of the Hindu faith. The conflation of religion
and culture is intentional. Countless Hindu voters are turbo-charged when they
watch the daily live telecasts of PM Modi bowing his head before deities, offering
flowers, performing aarti, cupping his hands for consecrated water, having his
forehead smeared with sandalwood paste and wearing religious headgear. Other
prominent politicians, including the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, have
adopted such temple visits as de rigueur, as have their followers in the corporate
sector, the bureaucracy and the judiciary.
This obeisance is now performed publicly, as befitting an ascendant Hindu faith,
especially vis-�-vis the Other who had repressed the faith for a thousand years.
And vast multitudes are admiring the razzle-dazzle and powerful oratory of
politicians who use classical Hindu texts to recall past humiliations, before
segueing to the treachery of political opponents today, always with a high-octane
pitch of nationalism.
The blend of Hindu rituals, technology and nationalism is awe-inspiring and oddly
comforting as the public becomes part of the magic realism of gods boarding
helicopters, usually in the presence of important political figures, or placing a
laser knife at the demon�s throat. Almost every large village in the country has
begun to enact ancient stories in powerful new ways with drone technology and
audio-video paraphernalia. The overwhelming storyline is not only that good wins
over evil, but that we Hindus will win because we are now a formidable nation
(shaktishali desh).
The other assertion that is gaining ground is that we Hindus have been too
tolerant, but now we are demanding the right of way, even if the Other has to be
marginalised. We are also learning to stress that those who live in India have a
common civilisational lineage. A senior RSS leader told me at Shahnawaz Hussein�s
iftar party, �Bharat Hindu Rashtra tha, aur ab phir Hindu Rashtra ban chuka hai.
Yeh samajh lijiye� (Bharat was a Hindu Rashtra, and is now again a Hindu Rashtra.
Understand this).
But as we get comfortable with the performative, ritualistic and somewhat bombastic
assertion of the Hindu identity conflated with nationalism, the key question is
this: Is the core of the Hindu faith receding? As one of the great ancient
religions of the world, the Hindu faith is built on some breathtakingly simple
beliefs. What are some of these beliefs, and are they retreating from the popular
practice of the Hindu faith in India today?
One of the exquisite doctrines of the Vedas and the Bhagavad Gita is the
renunciation of all attachment, but not of work or duties: Nishkama karma. The
texts urge, �You have a right to your work, but have no right over its fruit� (C
Rajagopalachari, Hinduism: Doctrine and Way of Life, 1959)
Two, the other epic, the Ramayana, exhorts the reader to always do the right thing,
like Maryada Purushottam Ram.
Three, the Hindu belief in the One, all-pervasive Supreme Being who dwells in each
soul, �that there is that in us which is immortal, other than the body we mistake
for it� who sees all beings in his own body, realises that all beings are one with
himself�. This is the concept of non-duality, advaita (Ishavasya Upanishad).
Four, the belief in Karma, that we cannot escape the effect of our actions and that
the moral law of cause and effect bears down on us through this life and beyond.
Time is cyclical, and human beings have to liberate themselves from endless
rebirths and strive towards moksha or liberation.
Five, the tradition does not allow hate. �It is not open to any Hindu, whatever be
the name and mental image of the Supreme Being he (she) uses for his (her)
devotional exercises, to deny the divinity or the truth of the God of other
denominations� (C Rajagopalachari).
Six, the Upanishads set down an unshakeable adherence to truth and to tireless
investigation to reach the truth.
Clearly, this is a much-truncated register of the core features of the Hindu faith.
But as our politicians trigger a Hindutva frenzy, and foment divisions in society
based on grievances of the past and the Hindus� superiority in the present, when
was the last time that political leaders spoke of even these few core beliefs? By
stripping the faith of its precious kernel for electoral gains, politicians are
robbing Hindus of their agency. They are deliberately propping up a transactional
and pop version of this commanding, complex faith. Ironically, this is happening in
Amrit Kaal.
The writer is a senior journalist
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Not working out: New report shows jobs crisis is the No 1 economic challenge; You
wouldn�t know it from election rhetoric
March 28, 2024
India�s economic growth in the first three quarters of 2023-24 exceeded 8%, well
above most optimistic projections. A LoknitiCSDS survey of youth in Delhi, however,
indicates that headlines miss something. Eighty percent of the respondents said
getting a job in the last two years was either difficult or very difficult.
Growth�s not translating into adequate opportunity for youth.
Narrowing window: Jobs are the No. 1 economic and social issue. Let�s start with
the big picture. The share of our working age population is about 63%. It�s
expected to be stable for a while. This is the demographic window in which an
economy can transform dramatically. East Asian tiger economies did that. The window
was used to create a demographic dividend. Miss this opportunity, a country may
stagnate.
Post-Covid scenario: The economy bounced back sharply and unemployment fell. But
that�s just a part of the story. Two negative trends were visible in the jobs
market. People moved back to agriculture, which really means limited earnings.
Also, many of the new jobs were in the unstable category of self-employed,
especially for women. These challenges have been highlighted again in a jobs report
brought out this week by ILO and Institute for Human Development based on GOI data.
No market for young: India�s youth employment profile suggests a crisis. Share of
youth who are not in employment, education or training has averaged 29.2% between
2010 and 2019. It�s the highest in South Asia. There�s a high proportion of
unemployed educated youth even as industry complains of a shortage of labour for
skilled jobs. Leave aside a few elite institutions, education in India is not a
proxy for employability. To illustrate, about 3,700 PhDs applied recently for the
post of a peon in UP police where Class V was the eligibility criterion.
Women not wanted: That�s the job market�s message. No surprise then that if 53.2%
of the female workforce was self-employed in 2019, the proportion increased to 62%
in 2022. Many are not even paid.
Stagnant earnings: Over the past decade the average monthly inflation-adjusted
earnings of regular salaried and self-employed persons either declined or remained
stable. This is corroborated by weak consumption data in the 8%+ GDP numbers.
The jobs crisis should be the priority of all political parties in this election
season. But so far we haven�t heard of an effective strategy. Time�s running out.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/not-working-out-new-
report-shows-jobs-crisis-is-the-no-1-economic-challenge-you-wouldnt-know-it-from-
election-rhetoric/

In festivals we celebrate human connections

March 28, 2024
Bhartendu Sood
The scenes of Holi celebrations across the country and even in neighbouring
countries appear to carry one message, �Life is life with others.� It is life from,
for, and with one another. Human life is always lived in communities. We are social
beings. Even the Divine loves the one who loves other beings, and man�s glory lies
in being a member of a big family.
On the one hand, we are bound by kinship ties � parents, spouse, and children; on
the other, we are linked with every individual of society, whether near or far. It
is given to man to link himself with those who constitute his ancestry and also to
think of those who could be his posterity. Therefore, we should live, work and die
for society by rising above our kinship. Vidur Niti says: �Sacrifice the interest
of individual for the sake of the family; sacrifice the interest of the family for
the sake of the village; sacrifice the interest of the village for the sake of the
country.�
Vedanta implores us to rise above kinship in the larger interest of society and
consider the entire universe as our family in the spirit of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.
This Vedic philosophy transcends man-made boundaries of caste, origin, religion,
race, and geographical divisions.
This is demonstrated by an incident in Mahabharat. While in exile, Kunti and the
five Pandavs had to take up different jobs for their sustenance by concealing their
true identities. One day, Kunti saw the lady of the house where she was employed,
weeping profusely. When inquired, the woman who was widow shared her impending
misfortune with Kunti and said that there lives a rakshas nearby, who would often
attack their village, looting and devouring the villagers. When villagers pleaded
with him to stop wanton killings, the rakshas agreed but on the condition that once
a month, the villagers on their own accord would send to him one person for him to
feed on, along with grains and other eatables for his monthly requirement. This
coming month, it was the turn of her family to sacrifice a family member. Since her
son was her only surviving kin, she would lose everything and be rendered
childless.
Kunti was moved. Full of gratitude for that woman, she thought to herself, �i have
five sons even if i lose one still i�d be left with four, but this widow would
become childless, i should help her out.� She consulted her sons. All of them
eagerly offered to go instead of the widow�s boy, but Kunti chose Bhim, because of
his prowess in one-to-one combat. Rest, we all know. But the point is that Kunti
was willing to sacrifice her son for the larger good.
Our duty towards our neighbours, the concept of universal brotherhood, and
fraternity of mankind, compassion towards all living beings � are often echoed in
Vedic hymns. The main prayer in Yajur Ved is for peace and happiness, not in a
particular place or country but in the entire Universe. The Vedic hymn, �Aum Dhyo
Shanti Antariksh Shanti Prithvi Shanti Apa Shanti Aushadhya Shanti Vanaspataya
Shanti Vishwedeva Shanti Brahma Shanti Sarvam Shanti Shantieva Shanti Sa Ma
Shantiedhi Aum Shanti Shanti Shanti� conveys this lofty ideal.
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human-connections/

Baltimore To Bihar: Bridge collapse in US is reminder how creaky many of India�s

bridges are & how deficient current upkeep is
March 28, 2024
When a bridge collapses, it reveals the fragility of structures that undergird our
lives, that we take for granted. The bridge collapse in Baltimore is prompting
questions about safety and strength of American infrastructure. India is no
stranger to such catastrophes. In the last few years, we have seen terrible images
from Bihar, Gujarat, Mumbai and Mizoram, with some bridges under construction, and
some known to be dilapidated and dangerous but allowed to function.
Infra boom: India has been on a huge infrastructure binge in recent years.
Strategic and high-vis bridges like the Chenab bridge and Mumbai trans-harbour link
attest to our engineering capacities and intent. Public and private sectors are
together set to invest ?96 trillion ($1.16 tr) on infrastructure over 2024-2030,
according to CRISIL.
So very old: But bridges are not just showbiz, they are also a matter of mundane
maintenance. A crash always reveals engineering and policy failures. Across India,
many private contractors seek quick returns, and govts are complicit in this
carelessness. Without institutional coordination and a skilled workforce for
structural repair, bridge maintenance has been patchy. The Bridge Management System
launched in 2015 is supposed to survey bridges, identify distressed bridges and
rehabilitate them, but there remains a staggering backlog of aging infrastructure.
Of our 1,73,000 bridges, about 36,740 were built by the British and about 6,700 of
them are even older.
Upgrade�s urgent: In US, the accident was caused by a 20th century bridge meeting a
21st century ship. In India too, we need to upgrade our assets to fit current
demands, deploy tech like bridge monitoring sensors to detect damage and strain,
have regular maintenance protocols and structural audits, and ensure that both
private and public agencies are responsible for the bridges they build, and to the
people for whom they work.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/baltimore-to-bihar-bridge-
collapse-in-us-is-reminder-how-creaky-many-of-indias-bridges-are-how-deficient-
current-upkeep-is/

Eggs Kejriwalled
March 27, 2024
Bachi Karkaria
Like same-name snack, he�s been
toasted, grilled � and now burnt
Devi Prasad Kejriwal, member of Bombay�s toff Willingdon Sports Club, asked for
cheese toast topped with an egg and diced green chillies. That personal whim of the
�60s became pan-Indian as more and more menus scrambled to grab a bite of its
popularity. But today it looks more like a Dilli bhur-ji. Aaj ka Kejriwal has egg
on his face if you AAPlaud his arrest. If instead you find it AAPpalling, it�s
because of the timing � a factor as relevant in the cooking of eggs.
Actually, lofty Arvind-ji�s case is looking like lowly anda only. His case has been
cracked, no? He�s been named kingpin of an eggcise scam, no? Eggcised from poll
campaign, no? In our Mumbai, egg is baida and scam is ghotala. So already our
street-stallwallas are changing name of Baida ghotala to Kejri ghotala.
He was once the cock of the anti-corruption walk, so it�s shame on toast to have
been roasted on the same count. Unsurprisingly, he brazened it out nine times,
ignoring as many summons. In this, Kejriwal was different from the usual hard-
boiled politician who turns out to be yellow inside. But, as he found out, you
can�t always be sunny side up; when the heat is turned on, you end up double fried.

Yes-ji, all politics is much like cooking eggs. Non monsieur, that�s not why some
politicians are oeufs. MLAs and MPs are regularly poached and whisked away. As in
souffles, party members have to be �whipped� during confidence votes, else the
government could collapse. In a French hollandaise or Parsi machhi no saas, the egg
must be carefully blended in, continuously watched over; constituencies have to be
similarly coddled.
Else both sauce and chances will curdle. Like the Portuguese pasta de nata, he will
become past-a de neta. Alas not always. While �eggs once broken �can never be put
together again�, we keep putting up with the broken promises of politicians, and
putting these rotters back again.
However, no politician�s crime has been so heinous yet as to deserve the infamous
�anda cell�.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/erratica/eggs-kejriwalled/

We�ve been there, we�ve done that, and we can help: IIT alumni
Dheeraj Singh
Mar 28, 2024
A global alumni group, comprising members of marginalised communities, has started
mentoring SC/ST students to ensure they don't fall through the cracks
The worrying trend of suicides by IIT students has continued in 2024, with five
suicides recorded in the first three months of the year alone. According to the
Union education ministry, 39 students died by suicide in the IITs between 2018 and
2023.
Students who belong to Scheduled Caste/Scheduled Tribe (SC/ST) communities, like
Darshan Solanki from IIT Bombay (who died by suicide in February 2023) or Anil
Kumar from IIT Delhi (who died by suicide in September 2023), often have little
support on campus. In response to this crisis � as well as to larger, systemic
issues that students from marginalised communities face in IIT campuses around the
country � the Global IIT Alumni Support Group, a professional networking platform
of over 500 alumni from constitutionally marginalised groups, working to promote
higher education among SC/ST students, realised that extensive mental health
support was needed. The group realised that a mentorship programme for SC/ST
students of IITs was the answer.
Inspired by the philosophy of social justice, the group�s mission is to support the
academic, professional and social progress of students as well as to advocate for
better diversity in higher education.
Identifying the problem(s)
The alumni group first focused on assisting IIT Kanpur graduates who were yet to
find employment and started a mentorship programme in April 2023. Right away, the
group reckoned with challenges like psychological pressure on students, partly
because of a false public assumption that all IITians receive large compensation
packages. This is bolstered by the fact that IITs never reveal the number of
students who remain unplaced.
Apart from mental stress, discrimination, and language barriers, SC/ST students
talked about the lack of available mechanisms such as dedicated mentoring with
standard placement guidance and an SC/ST cell. These students reported feelings of
social isolation, and imposter syndrome, and said they received inadequate support
from the faculty.
The group was able to assist 20 students in finding employment by August.
Around the same time, two Dalit students, Ayush Ashna and Kumar, died by suicide on
the campus of IIT Delhi. Rattled, the alumni group decided to extend the mentorship
programme to all IITs.
In October 2023, the group introduced a special pro bono career mentorship
programme for the final year undergraduate as well as postgraduate students in all
the 23 IITs. We emailed all the IITs asking them to inform the SC/ST students
enrolled with them about the mentoring programme. Only a few responded positively.
Word-of-mouth, social media, and print helped us reach out to the intended student
population.
The programme eventually attracted 350 students from 15 IITs. These students were
trained in preparing a CV, enhancing their communication skills, and taking part in
mock interviews led by professionals. They also received individual feedback, and
we helped locate off-campus employment.
Aid through contextual mentoring
What makes this programme special is the contextual mentoring by 50 alumni mentors
who share similar backgrounds, have overcome comparable challenges, and are
thriving in their careers.
Additionally, mentors connected students in critical situations to medical
professionals who could offer emotional aid.
One such instance cropped up when a student from IIT Kharagpur reached out to us
with thoughts of suicide and pleaded for assistance. We took immediate action,
arranging for the student to see a psychiatrist to defuse the crisis. There were
other instances of a similar nature as nearly half the students in the programme
identified emotional support as their biggest need of the hour.
The other need they identified was mentoring to tackle the challenging job market.
Our first triumph came early. Rajesh, an IIT Guwahati student, had difficulty
speaking in English and reverted to Hindi during a group discussion. Upon seeing
him, others did the same. Eventually, he aced the interview round and was hired.
Rajesh�s father works as a daily wage labourer in Gujarat. How did the family
respond to the wonderful news, we asked him. "They are happy, but do not know
beyond that," he stated plainly.
Our work began to pay off and we received messages proving this.
�Dear Sir, I got placed. I am grateful to you for your initiation and efforts to
give us such detailed and effective guidance. I am really happy that individuals
like you are still there, giving their precious time and efforts to help others. I
am eagerly waiting for the opportunity to contribute and give back,� Anand, an IIT
Kanpur student, said.
�I got placed and I thank you with all my heart, for all the support you gave. The
podcast and mock interviews helped me to keep pushing myself even at Day 8 [of
placements] [when I] lost all hope,� Asha, an IIT Kharagpur student, wrote to us.
�I read messages, struggled, practised mocks, and after five failed interviews I
finally got placed,� Vandana, an IIT Guwahati student, told us.
To date, more than 100 students who were part of the mentoring programme have been
placed in jobs in a range of multinational companies.
Unquestionably, the mentorship initiative's successful social experiment has
demonstrated how much students, particularly those from marginalised backgrounds,
require alumni support to navigate the challenges of their education, careers, and
personal lives.
We hope that mentorship programmes become a mainstay at the IITs to address some of
their urgent problems, such as making sure their students have excellent job
possibilities and preventing fatalities on campus.
Dheeraj Singh, an IIT Kanpur and IIM Calcutta alumnus, is a strategy and finance
professional based in Gurugram. He is the founder of the Global IIT Alumni Support
Group. The views expressed are personal.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/weve-been-there-we-ve-done-that-and-we-can-
help-iit-alumni-101711568140462.html\

Developed India needs the dignity of development

Amarjeet Sinha
Mar 27, 2024
There has been a significant reduction in chronic poverty, but India has a long way
to go to ensure opportunity for all to realise their fullest human potential
The bartender at University College, Oxford, goes to Spain for a vacation. A
plumber in Brussels has high service charges and leads a life of dignity.
Meanwhile, India�s inequality has attracted attention, given the findings of a
just-published study by a team that included economist Thomas Piketty. The Union
ministry of finance, though, finds evidence of a decline in the latest consumption
expenditure survey. The Inequality Report 2022 brought out by the Institute of
Competitiveness for the Prime Minister�s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), used
Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2019-20 data, to say that a monthly salary of ?
25,000 and above puts a person in the top 10% of the total wages earned. This
indicated a challenge in securing development with dignity for all.
The United Nations Development Programme�s (2023) affirmation of 415 million
persons coming out of multi-dimensional poverty in India between 2005-06 and 2019-
2021, was encouraging. The 2022-23 Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure
(MPCE) also indicated significant improvement since 2011-12, faster in rural than
in urban areas. Scholars have stepped in with claims and counter-claims regarding
poverty in India. Depending on whether it was a mere end to chronic poverty that
was considered or a more aspirational end to poverty in the context of middle- and
high-income countries, the assessments varied. If development with dignity for all
is about an opportunity to develop one�s fullest human potential and live with a
basic quality of life, we surely have a very long way to go.
Triangulating all the surveys, reports and assessments, it can be said with
confidence that there has been a significant reduction in chronic poverty in India
from 2005-06 onwards. Disruptions due to Covid-19 did shrink the incomes of the
poor. As the PRICE Survey 2023 showed, the average annual household income of the
poorest 20% did shrink compared to 2016, from ?1.4 lakh to ?1.1 lakh. While the
post-Covid economic recovery in India has been robust, the recovery of the lower
quintiles remains a challenge, as seen from the fall in the share of regular
wage/salary employment between 2018-19 and 2022-23, as per the PLFS. Development
with dignity requires steady living wages for all.
On income and multidimensional poverty, a significant overall gain is noticed
between 2011-12 and 2022-23. With a focus on the pro-poor public welfare on
housing, toilets, opening of bank accounts, road connectivity, electricity
connection, cooking gas, women�s collectives with access to credit, cash transfers
to farmers, ease of credit to registered street vendors under the PM Svanidhi in
urban areas, the number of multi-dimensionally poor surely came down. A SBI
Research study on women�s collectives brings out the gains through aspiring
lakhpati didis. However, on income, employment, and human capital, we surely have a
great distance to cover.
For every citizen to realise their fullest human potential, our government schools,
hospitals, health and nutrition centres and skill opportunities, all have to
perform much better than at present. India�s 134th rank on Human Development Index
2024, compared to China�s 75th and Indonesia�s 112th, points to a need to improve
life expectancy, mean and expected years of schooling, and gross national income
per capita with purchasing power parity a lot faster than the current pace.
Governance reforms are needed for crafting credible, decentralised and
professionally-run, publicly funded community institutions, for high-quality
outcomes in education, health, nutrition, skills and livelihoods. The southern
states drastically reduced multi-dimensional poverty through human development and
women�s collectives. Even Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar registered 5-8 points
decline in child stunting between 2015-16 and 2019-21. Global evidence points to a
strong link between human development and economic progress, where we have to ramp
up our efforts.
On income, there has to be a realisation that wages must not get pushed down by an
over-supply of unskilled wage labour, making a mockery of living with dignity. We
need productivity gains for workers through up-skilling, complemented by disruptive
gains via the use of emerging technology and new ways of value creation. It is also
time to revisit the wage structure of workfare programmes like the Mahatma Gandhi
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS); it does set the floor for
wage rates. Development with dignity demands higher productivity and greater thrust
on semi-skilled and skilled human resources with higher wages. Our social
infrastructure gaps need prioritisation. Better schools and colleges, polytechnics
and Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs), hospitals and health centres, aanganwadi
centres and skill-providing institutions are all needed as community institutions.
In a world fighting the climate crisis haphazardly, adverse climate events have
started affecting human health and agricultural productivity. Our evidence-based
action must surely factor in climate challenges and environmental pollution and its
consequences for human productivity, morbidity and life expectancy.
With rapid urbanisation, we need to find a solution to housing and basic amenities
in emerging clusters of non-farm economic activity. The rurban mission tried to
provide urban-like services in rural cluster points. Based on convergence and with
only a 30% critical gap funding, the mission developed robust standards and
normative planning processes to create planned growth points. It is time we
invested in such initiatives both for sustaining economic progress and
environmentally sustainable growth. India is well on its way to leveraging its
demographic profile to push growth and development. Development with dignity for
all is the only way to a Developed India 2047.
Amarjeet Sinha is a retired civil servant. The views expressed are personal
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/developed-india-needs-the-dignity-of-
development-101711551173167.html

Ideas for India: The CPR saga is a cautionary tale

Milan Vaishnav
Mar 27, 2024
CPR is the chosen partner of officials with a penchant for intellectual curiosity,
who are willing to follow the data wherever it may lead.
2024 was meant to be a valedictory year for the Centre for Policy Research (CPR),
one of India�s most venerable independent public policy think tanks. For five
decades, the New Delhi-based organisation has been driven by a simple mission � to
conduct original research that contributes to the annals of scholarship in a manner
that informs the design and implementation of pragmatic public policy. Its scholars
have earned a well-deserved reputation for independence, integrity, and rigour.
But rather than planning for the next half-century, the institution instead finds
itself contemplating a markedly different fate. This week, CPR�s chief executive,
one of India�s leading development scholars, announced her resignation, the latest
step in the gutting of an organisation that had developed a global � not just
national � reputation for excellence. Its independent ideas, it appears, proved too
inconvenient for some.
At a time when India occupies a unique geopolitical sweet spot, its ability to
fully exploit this opportunity rests on three mundane, but essential, endeavours:
Building robust institutional capacity, developing farsighted policy, and enhancing
the country�s human capital stock. All three pursuits are imperilled when the
values of academic freedom, independent thinking, and critical analysis are
curtailed. In this respect, CPR�s story serves as an important cautionary tale.
In September 2022, income tax authorities carried out what is euphemistically
referred to as a �tax survey� of CPR�s offices to investigate alleged
�irregularities�. In quick succession, the government suspended (and later revoked)
its licence to accept foreign funds and cancelled the organisation�s tax-exempt
status. For good measure, criminal charges were filed against several CPR
affiliates. The organisation, reliant on foreign philanthropy to finance its
operations, turned its attention to exclusively raising funds from domestic
sources. But a not-so-subtle signal seems to have gone out to private capital that
it was deemed untouchable, leaving the organisation between a rock and a hard
place.
Soon its staff of 200 plus began to shrink and the organisation became a shell of
its former self � its once bustling conference room went dark, its corridors fell
silent, and its offices shorn of argumentative policy wonks. Today, fewer than two
dozen people remain on the rolls.
At first glance, it is easy to dismiss a non-profit think tank nestled in leafy
Chanakyapuri as part of a Left-wing cabal or the extension of the proverbial
�foreign hand�. But doing so would be unwise as well as inaccurate. The chairperson
of the Prime Minister (PM)�s economic advisory council and two successive chiefs of
the government�s apex internal thank tank are distinguished alums. Current and
former members of the body�s governing council include an ex-PM, a former chief
justice of India, and one of India�s most decorated diplomats.
Yet, the roster of intellectual luminaries associated with CPR is not what makes
the institution exceptional; the real truth lies elsewhere.
CPR�s example demonstrates that while India�s human capital challenges may be
daunting, even modest investments in young people can pay disproportionate
dividends. Look far and wide across India � from the halls of government to
grassroots development organisations and the nation�s leading research centres �
and you will be surprised by how many emerging leaders have punched their ticket at
this small think tank.
Perhaps the best � and most intimidating � aspect about delivering a presentation
at CPR is not knowing from which angle you might be critiqued. That is because
researchers there rarely agree with one another on much of anything. To the outside
world, this might give an impression of disorder. But, for those on the inside, it
is a marker of confidence and a free-wheeling independent streak. When your
institutional identity is secure, conformity can make way for coexistence.
In fact, it is precisely this spirit that has made CPR a prized partner for the
government. CPR is not the organisation bureaucrats turn to if they need
intellectual cover to validate a pre-cooked position. Rather, it is the chosen
partner of officials with a penchant for intellectual curiosity, who are willing to
follow the data wherever it may lead. This is why CPR�s advice and counsel have
been actively sought out by governments of all stripes, including the present one.
From developing the country�s long-term low emissions development strategy to
piloting novel expenditure tracking tools and fostering Centre-state cooperation on
internal migration, the organisation�s impact statement writes itself.
Of course, there are plenty who will choose to blame the victim. Why was the
organisation so reliant on foreign funding? Why did affiliated scholars write so
critically? Whose interests was it really serving? By now, these hackneyed tropes
are both well-rehearsed and ubiquitous on social media. The law has served its
purpose, to smother the organisation in a warren of legal minutiae. The eventual
outcome seems irrelevant; as the saying goes, the process is the punishment.
One would have to be wilfully na�ve to believe that vitiating a research
organisation will bring the gears of policymaking to a halt or raise enough
eyebrows to force a self-assured government to change tack. After all, there are
elections to be fought, economic deals to be struck, and foreign relations to be
negotiated. Policy conversations in the nation�s Capital will go on without missing
a beat. But one would have to be equally na�ve not to grasp that this onward grind
proceeds with attendant costs � of a discourse that is diminished, a talent pool
that is enfeebled, and a spirit of independent inquiry that is sapped. To
paraphrase an old line from Eleanor Roosevelt, small minds discuss people and
average minds discuss events. It is great minds that discuss ideas.
Milan Vaishnav is a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. The views expressed
are personal
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cautionary-tale-101711551332062.html