Asia Pacific Equity Research

27 May 2025

Overweight
Meituan (3690) 3690.HK, 3690 HK
Price (26 May 25): HK$129.40
Factor in more financial impact from escalating
▼ Price Target (Dec-26): HK$160.00
competition intensity in China's food delivery market Prior (Dec-25): HK$165.00

Meituan's share price has underperformed the sector average, as measured China
by KWEB, by 17ppts over the past three months due to investor concerns Head of China Equity Research and
on the impact from escalating competitive intensity in China's food Co-Head of Asia TMT Research
delivery market. While JD's faster-than-expected progress in daily order Alex Yao AC
volume and Alibaba's step-up in subsidy-driven investment in food (86 21) 6106 6505
delivery and quick commerce indicate more negative impact on Meituan's [email protected]
market share and potential reaction than we initially thought, we maintain SAC Registration Number: S1730523020001
the view that 1) the high-intensity of such subsidy-driven competition will Andre Chang, CFA
be short-lived, and 2) Meituan will remain the market share leader (86-21) 6106 6362
[email protected]
throughout the competition cycle. We cut Meituan’s 2025/26E adj EPS
SAC Registration Number: S1730520080002
forecasts by 10%/3% as we factor in higher-than-expected competitive
Nancy Liu
intensity and Meituan's food delivery revenue mix shift to lower margin
(86 21) 6106 6343
operations. Nonetheless, we stay OW on Meituan on a 6- to 12-month [email protected]
view due to: 1) a potential positive earnings revision cycle starting in 6 SAC Registration Number: S1730524090001
months, when JD starts to pull back intensive price subsidies, and 2) J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited
attractive valuation on a 2026E basis (16x 2026E P/E).
Key Changes (FYE Dec)
 Shenqiangshou & Pinhaofan – Meituan’s commitment to a value-
Prev Cur
for-money strategy. We believe Meituan's competition strategy is Adj. EPS - 25E (Rmb) 7.54 6.76
focused largely on accelerating user adoption of its uniquely built value- Adj. EPS - 26E (Rmb) 9.66 9.33
for-money products (i.e. Shenqiangshou & Pinhaofan). To a lesser Revenue - 25E (Rmb mn) 391,481 385,764
Revenue - 26E (Rmb mn) 452,593 447,283
extent, Meituan may resort to tit-for-tat price subsidy competition
strategy. Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)
 Meituan to adopt differentiated strategy amid fierce competition. In Adj. EPS (Rmb)
the face of intense competition in the food delivery market, we believe 2024A 2025E 2026E
Q1 1.25 1.76A 1.84
Meituan will adopt a differentiated strategy, including utilization of the Q2 2.17 1.76 2.49
above-mentioned low-price initiatives, as well as flexible user subsidies, Q3 2.05 1.74 2.67
to maintain its position in the market and keep the financial impact Q4 1.58 1.49 1.99
relatively under control. Possible financial implications could include: 1) FY 7.03 6.76 9.33
potential market share loss due to overly aggressive subsidies by Style Exposure
competitors; 2) ASP decline driven by an increase in proportion of low-
price orders; and 3) lower margins resulting from the low-price strategy.
We expect core local commerce OPM to decline to 20% in 2Q25 and
18% in 2H25, suggesting full-year OPM of 19%, down 2ppts yoy.
 New overseas initiatives not a near-term concern. We believe
Meituan’s US$1bn 5-year investment in Brazil’s food delivery market
should have a manageable impact on group financials near term, given
that 1) incremental investment amounts to approx. Rmb200-300mn on a
quarterly basis, indicating insignificant short-term impact, and 2)
concurrent loss narrowing in domestic new initiatives should partially
offset investments in overseas expansion. We forecast new initiatives
operating loss of Rmb2.5bn in 2Q25, indicating OPM of -10%.

Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 6 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
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 Alex Yao Asia Pacific Equity Research
(86 21) 6106 6505 27 May 2025
[email protected]

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

While JD's faster-than-expected progress in daily order
volume and Alibaba's step-up in subsidy-driven investment
in food delivery and quick commerce indicate more
negative impact on Meituan's market share and potential
reaction than we initially thought, we maintain the view
that 1) the high-intensity of such subsidy-driven
competition will be short-lived, and 2) Meituan will remain
the market share leader throughout the competition cycle.
We cut Meituan’s 2025/26E adj EPS forecasts by 10%/3%
YTD 1m 3m 12m
as we factor in higher-than-expected competitive intensity
Abs -14.7% 1.4% -25.7% 11.3% and Meituan's food delivery revenue mix shift to lower
Rel -30.4% -3.0% -21.7% -14.9% margin operations. Nonetheless, we stay OW on Meituan
on a 6- to 12-month view due to: 1) a potential positive
Company Data
earnings revision cycle starting in 6 months, when JD starts
Shares O/S (mn) 5,530
52-week range (HK$) 217.00-100.10
to pull back intensive price subsidies, and 2) attractive
Market cap ($ mn) 91,369 valuation on a 2026E basis (16x 2026E P/E).
Exchange rate 7.83
Free float (%) 84.3% We roll over our valuation basis to 2026E, and our Dec-26 PT
3M ADV (mn) 50.71
3M ADV ($ mn) 973.7 of HK$160 is based on 16x 2026E P/E, as we expect the high-
Volatility (90 Day) 60 intensity, subsidy-driven industry competition will be short-
Index HSCEI lived and that 2026 will see more normalized competitive
BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 56|3|2
intensity than 2025.
Key Metrics (FYE Dec)
Rmb in millions FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E Performance Drivers
Financial Estimates
Revenue 337,464 385,764 447,283 507,378
Adj. EBITDA 48,530 52,375 69,177 85,198
Adj. EBIT 44,428 44,660 58,466 71,751
Adj. net income 43,772 42,066 56,023 68,170
Adj. EPS 7.03 6.76 9.33 11.36
BBG EPS 6.99 8.20 10.16 12.24
Cashflow from operations 57,147 57,643 73,411 87,995
FCFF 47,088 46,055 59,992 75,311
Margins and Growth
Revenue Growth Y/Y (%) 21.9% 14.3% 15.9% 13.4%
Gross margin 38.5% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
EBITDA margin 14.4% 13.6% 15.5% 16.8%
EBIT margin 13.2% 11.6% 13.1% 14.1%
Adj. EPS growth 90.5% (3.9%) 38.1% 21.7%
Ratios
Adj. tax rate 4.8% 7.4% 8.8% 10.8%
Interest cover 1,072.9 NM - -
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM NM
Net debt/EBITDA NM NM NM NM
ROCE 24.5% 21.2% 21.9% 20.9%
ROE 27.0% 21.7% 23.1% 22.4%
Valuation
FCFF yield 6.4% 6.2% 8.4% 10.6%
Dividend yield - - - -
EV/Revenue 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8
EV/EBITDA 11.7 9.9 6.7 4.5
Adj. P/E 16.9 17.6 12.7 10.4

Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be complete
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of HKUST MBA CAREER LIBARY-1 at HK
or exact.2
UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE &TECHNOLOGY.
 Alex Yao Asia Pacific Equity Research
(86 21) 6106 6505 27 May 2025
[email protected]

Meituan’s commitment to value-for-money strategy

We believe Meituan's competition strategy is focused largely on accelerating user
adoption of its uniquely built value-for-money products (i.e. Shenqiangshou and
Pinhaofan). To a lesser extent, Meituan may resort to tit-for-tat price subsidy
competition strategy. Shenqiangshou (神抢手) promotes value-for-money meal sets
through limited-time flash sales and live streaming sales, and with platform traffic
support/direct subsidies, these meals typically have lower prices and high order
volume. Pinhaofan, on the other hand, allows price-sensitive users to purchase low-
priced meals through group orders. By consolidating multiple orders, merchants can
streamline meal preparation and delivery, thus lowering unit costs.

Forecast revision
We lower Meituan’s PT from HK$165 to HK$160 as we 1) cut 2025/26E adj EPS by
10%/3%, and 2) roll over our valuation basis to 2026E as we expect the high-
intensity, subsidy-driven industry competition will be short-lived and that 2026 will
see more normalized competitive intensity than 2025.

Table 1: Meituan forecast revisions

YE 31 Dec 2025E 2026E
JPM % JPM %
RMBm except for EPS JPM old new change Consensus % delta JPM old new change Consensus % delta
Net revenues 391,481 385,764 -1% 395,558 -2% 452,593 447,283 -1% 453,941 -1%
Gross profit 156,593 154,306 -1% 154,576 0% 181,037 178,913 -1% 181,649 -2%
Operating profit 41,792 36,764 -12% 44,513 -17% 53,108 51,075 -4% 57,124 -11%
EBITDA (adjusted) 57,635 52,375 -9% 57,653 -9% 71,424 69,177 -3% 72,350 -4%
PBT 42,792 37,548 -12% 46,723 -20% 54,108 52,075 -4% 60,240 -14%
Net income 38,940 34,169 -12% 43,826 -22% 48,697 46,868 -4% 55,078 -15%
Net income (adjusted) 46,954 42,066 -10% 50,659 -17% 57,961 56,023 -3% 62,578 -10%
EPS
Diluted 6.25 5.49 -12% 6.81 -19% 8.11 7.81 -4% 8.62 -9%
EPS (adjusted)
Diluted 7.54 6.76 -10% 8.20 -18% 9.66 9.33 -3% 10.16 -8%

Margin analysis (%)

Gross margin 40.0% 40.0% 39.1% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Operating margin 10.7% 9.5% 11.7% 11.4%
EBITDA margin (adjusted) 14.7% 13.6% 15.8% 15.5%
Net margin 9.9% 8.9% 11.1% 10.8% 10.5% 12.1%
Net margin (adjusted) 12.0% 10.9% 12.8% 12.8% 12.5% 13.8%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. (as of May 26, 2025).

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UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE &TECHNOLOGY.
 Alex Yao Asia Pacific Equity Research
(86 21) 6106 6505 27 May 2025
[email protected]

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Meituan (Overweight; Price Target: HK$160.00)
Investment Thesis
While JD's faster-than-expected progress in daily order volume and Alibaba's
step-up in subsidy-driven investment in food delivery and quick commerce
indicate more negative impact on Meituan's market share and potential reaction
than we initially thought, we maintain the view that 1) the high-intensity of such
subsidy-driven competition will be short-lived, and 2) Meituan will remain the
market share leader throughout the competition cycle. We cut Meituan’s
2025/26E adj EPS forecasts by 10%/3% as we factor in higher-than-expected
competitive intensity and Meituan's food delivery revenue mix shift to lower
margin operations. Nonetheless, we stay OW on Meituan on a 6- to 12-month
view due to: 1) a potential positive earnings revision cycle starting in 6 months,
when JD starts to pull back intensive price subsidies, and 2) attractive valuation
on a 2026E basis (16x 2026E P/E).

Valuation
We roll over our valuation basis to 2026E, and our Dec-26 PT of HK$160 is based
on 16x 2026E P/E, as we expect the high-intensity, subsidy-driven industry
competition will be short-lived and that 2026 will see more normalized competitive
intensity than 2025.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key downside risks include: (1) a worse-than-expected consumption environment;
(2) a slower-than-expected narrowing of CGP loss; and (3) intensified competition
for the in-store business.

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UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE &TECHNOLOGY.
 Alex Yao Asia Pacific Equity Research
(86 21) 6106 6505 27 May 2025
[email protected]

Meituan (3690): Summary of Financials

Income Statement FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E Cash Flow Statement FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
Revenue 219,955 276,745 337,464 385,764 447,283 Cash flow from operating activities 11,411 40,522 57,147 57,643 73,411
COGS (158,202) (179,554) (207,680) (231,458) (268,370) o/w Depreciation & amortization 0 0 0 0 0
Gross profit 61,753 97,191 129,785 154,306 178,913 o/w Changes in working capital 5,907 21,194 26,278 7,862 8,442
SG&A (49,517) (67,989) (74,704) (95,545) (103,083)
Adj. EBITDA 5,110 22,166 48,530 52,375 69,177 Cash flow from investing activities (14,714) (24,664) 10,205 (11,573) (13,418)
D&A - - - - - o/w Capital expenditure (5,731) (6,880) (10,999) (11,573) (13,418)
Adj. EBIT 2,923 21,799 44,428 44,660 58,466 as % of sales 2.6% 2.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0%
Net Interest (971) (606) (45) 16 0
Adj. PBT 1,987 22,405 45,568 45,445 59,466 Cash flow from financing activities (9,990) (2,781) (30,415) 0 0
Tax 70 (165) (2,177) (3,379) (5,208) o/w Dividends paid - - - - -
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) 0 0 0 0 0
Adj. Net Income 2,827 23,253 43,772 42,066 56,023 o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (6,859) 663 (1,230) 0 0
Reported EPS (1.01) 2.19 5.75 5.49 7.81 Net change in cash (12,355) 13,181 37,494 46,070 59,992
Adj. EPS 0.47 3.69 7.03 6.76 9.33
Adj. Free cash flow to firm 7,024 34,545 47,088 46,055 59,992
DPS - - - - - y/y Growth (157.0%) 391.8% 36.3% (2.2%) 30.3%
Payout ratio - - - - -
Shares outstanding 6,003 6,300 6,226 6,226 6,003
Balance Sheet FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E Ratio Analysis FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
Cash and cash equivalents 20,159 33,340 70,834 116,904 176,897 Gross margin 28.1% 35.1% 38.5% 40.0% 40.0%
Accounts receivable 2,053 2,743 2,653 3,033 3,516 EBITDA margin 2.3% 8.0% 14.4% 13.6% 15.5%
Inventories 1,163 1,305 1,734 2,062 2,391 EBIT margin 1.3% 7.9% 13.2% 11.6% 13.1%
Other current assets 119,771 145,729 134,514 137,026 140,226 Net profit margin 1.3% 8.4% 13.0% 10.9% 12.5%
Current assets 143,145 183,116 209,735 259,025 323,030
PP&E 22,201 25,978 30,239 34,096 38,569 ROE 2.2% 16.6% 27.0% 21.7% 23.1%
LT investments 15,073 18,481 17,776 17,776 17,776 ROA 1.2% 8.7% 14.2% 12.0% 13.6%
Other non current assets 64,061 65,455 66,605 66,605 66,605 ROCE 1.9% 13.5% 24.5% 21.2% 21.9%
Total assets 244,481 293,030 324,355 377,502 445,980 SG&A/Sales 22.5% 24.6% 22.1% 24.8% 23.0%
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM NM NM
Short term borrowings - - - - - Net debt/EBITDA NM NM NM NM NM
Payables 17,379 22,981 25,193 25,193 25,193
Other short term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 Sales/Assets (x) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Current liabilities 17,379 22,981 25,193 25,193 25,193 Assets/Equity (x) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
Long-term debt 19,111 19,932 1,176 1,176 1,176 Interest cover (x) 5.3 36.6 1,072.9 NM -
Other long term liabilities 79,285 98,161 125,382 136,464 148,918 Operating leverage (510.3%) 2501.6% 473.1% 3.7% 193.8%
Total liabilities 115,775 141,073 151,751 162,833 175,287 Tax rate 3.5% 0.7% 4.8% 7.4% 8.8%
Shareholders' equity 128,762 152,013 172,663 214,728 270,752 Revenue y/y Growth 22.8% 25.8% 21.9% 14.3% 15.9%
Minority interests (56) (57) (59) (59) (59) EBITDA y/y Growth (152.7%) 333.8% 118.9% 7.9% 32.1%
Total liabilities & equity 244,481 293,030 324,355 377,502 445,980 EPS y/y Growth (118.2%) 683.7% 90.5% (3.9%) 38.1%
BVPS 21.45 24.13 27.73 34.49 45.10 Valuation FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
y/y Growth 2.5% 12.5% 14.9% 24.4% 30.8% P/E (x) 251.9 32.1 16.9 17.6 12.7
P/BV (x) 5.5 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.6
Net debt/(cash) (1,047) (13,408) (69,658) (115,728) (175,720) EV/EBITDA (x) 124.9 28.2 11.7 9.9 6.7
Dividend Yield - - - - -
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: Rmb in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which

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(86 21) 6106 6505 27 May 2025
[email protected]

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research
Analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document
individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect the Research Analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and
(2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed by the Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if
applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that the Research Analyst’s analysis was made in good faith and that the views
reflect the Research Analyst’s own opinion, without undue influence or intervention.
All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe,
Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research
Department.

Important Disclosures

 Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider (Hong Kong): J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited and/or J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong
Kong) Limited and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the securities of Meituan (3690) or related entities and/or
warrants or options thereon, which are listed or traded on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.
 Analyst Position: An analyst on the Equity or Credit coverage team, non-fundamental analyst who may produce trade
recommendations, or a member of their respective household(s) has a financial interest in the debt or equity securities of Meituan (3690)
or related entities.
 Beneficial Ownership (1% or more): J.P. Morgan beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of Meituan
(3690) or related entities.
 Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Meituan (3690) or related
entities.
 Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
entity(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Meituan (3690) or related entities.
 Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients, and
the services provided were non-securities-related: Meituan (3690) or related entities.
 Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or
services other than investment banking from Meituan (3690) or related entities.
 Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Meituan (3690) or related entities, if any.
Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables (if applicable), are
available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies, and certain non-covered companies, by visiting
https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing [email protected] with
your request.

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[email protected]

Date Rating Price (HK$) Price Target

(HK$)
04-Jun-22 OW 180.20 225
29-Aug-22 OW 181.90 260
27-Nov-22 OW 136.60 235
22-Mar-23 OW 130.10 200
27-Mar-23 OW 140.20 190
27-Aug-23 OW 132.20 195
30-Nov-23 N 90.45 100
05-Feb-24 N 63.25 67
24-Mar-24 OW 88.25 110
07-Jun-24 OW 112.70 130
29-Aug-24 OW 102.80 140
01-Dec-24 OW 168.70 200
23-Mar-25 OW 167.60 190
22-Apr-25 OW 136.50 165

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight (over the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this
stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage
universe); Neutral (over the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average
total return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe); and Underweight (over the
duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the
Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe. NR is Not Rated. In this case, J.P. Morgan has removed the
rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or
policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India) and U.K. small- and mid-cap Equity Research, each stock’s expected
total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those Research Analysts’ coverage
universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying Research Analyst’s coverage universe can
be found on J.P. Morgan’s Research website, https://www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Yao, Alex: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (9988.HK), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) (BABA), Alibaba
Health (0241) (0241.HK), Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK), Autohome Inc (ATHM), Autohome Inc - H (2518.HK), Baidu.com (9888.HK),
Baidu.com (BIDU) (BIDU), Kingsoft Cloud (KC), Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd - H (3896.HK), Lianlian DigiTech - H (2598.HK),
Maoyan Entertainment (1896.HK), Meituan (3690) (3690.HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833) (1833.HK), Tencent (0700)
(0700.HK), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), Tencent Music Entertainment - H (1698.HK), Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM), Trip.com
Group Ltd - H (9961.HK), Weibo Corporation (WB), Weibo Corporation - H (9898.HK)

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of April 05, 2025

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage* 50% 37% 13%
IB clients** 51% 49% 37%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 47% 40% 13%
IB clients** 74% 69% 52%
*Please note that the percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided investment banking
services within the previous 12 months.
For purposes of FINRA ratings distribution rules only, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating
category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.
This information is current as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter.

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[email protected]

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