Disruption in Global Supply Chain and Socio Economic Shocks: A Lesson From COVID 19 For Sustainable Production and Consumption
Disruption in Global Supply Chain and Socio Economic Shocks: A Lesson From COVID 19 For Sustainable Production and Consumption
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12063-021-00179-y
Received: 19 August 2020 / Revised: 16 November 2020 / Accepted: 14 January 2021 / Published online: 18 March 2021
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC part of Springer Nature 2021
Abstract
The novel COVID-19 has emerged as a severe threat to global health globally, affecting over 210 countries and regions.
The profound dilemma interrupted global trade and social activities and enormously influenced daily lives through social
distance and confinements. The outbreak of COVID-19 has exacerbated human misery due to the crippling of economies
globally. The effects are substantial on health, economy, environment, and society. Nearly every country is trying to prevent
the transmission of this communicable disease. Remedial policies include testing and treating patients, isolating suspects
through contact tracking, banning public gatherings, and asserting a complete or partial shutdown. In this context, the present
paper’s core objective is to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment and energy market, society,
economy, and global protective measures taken to reduce COVID-19 transmission. The study’s main contribution is revealed
lessons to provide insights for business and the efficacy of governments’ initiative globally. Finally, this paper describes
future actions for governments, leaders, energy providers, and all stakeholders in response to the global pandemic crisis.
Keywords COVID-19 · Sustainable production · Sustainable practices · Environmental policies · Renewable energy ·
Sustainable consumption
1
* Zhang Yu School of Economics and Management, Chang’an
[email protected] University, Xi’an, China
2
Asif Razzaq School of Management and Economics, Dalian University
[email protected] of Technology, Dalian, China
3
Abdul Rehman Asia-Pacific Science Center Pte. Ltd, Centro Bianco 534818,
[email protected] Singapore
4
Adeel Shah Institute of Business Management (IOBM), Karachi, Pakistan
[email protected] 5
Hamdard Institute of Management Science, Hamdard
Kiran Jameel University, Karachi, Pakistan
[email protected] 6
Department of Food Engineering, National Institute of Food
Rahul S Mor Technology Entrepreneurship and Management, Sonepat,
[email protected] India
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
234 Z. Yu et al.
health and instigate ruinous socio-economic crises in the 2020), governments have imposed travel restrictions,
disease-ridden regions. border shutdowns, business discontinuity, and quarantine
Amid rising socio-economic shocks of COVID-19 across (GOV UK 2020; CPN 2020) in countries which comprise
the globe, about 40-60 million people fall into extreme the world’s largest economies, sparking uncertainties of
poverty due to the informal sector’s highest unemployment an imminent recession and economic crisis (Buck et al.
rate. Social insurance companies secure a few percentages 2020). Despite these efforts, some countries are still shown
of affectees. However, a major portion of about 55% of the persistent growth in confirmed cases and deaths (Bai et al.
world’s population (as many as four billion people) is not 2020; Awan et al. 2018; Lai et al. 2020). This unforeseen
covered by social insurance or social assistance. Besides, fallout appears due to the inaccessibility of the disease-
millions of people are trapped in the vulnerable category, resistant vaccine and drug. Nonetheless, the top ten most
prone to fall in poor with nominal economic shock. On the affected countries, United States, Brazil, India, Russia,
other hand, about 70% of COVID-19 quarantining women South Africa, Peru, Colombia, Chile, Spain, are worsening
faced domestic violence that distorts their social status. as 5,149,723 confirmed cases and 165,070 deaths 8 th Aug
These damages jeopardize our education system as nearly 2020 (Worldometer 2020). The regional distribution of
1.2 (68% of total) a billion students are out of school. confirmed infected and deaths are given in the below Fig. 1
Furthermore, 1/3 of the world’s IDPs live in 10 countries and Fig. 2.
most at risk, about 1.6 billion informal workers lost 60% Apart from global health risk, the social distancing and
of their income, remittances are expected to fall by almost unprecedented business closures as a part of policy measure
20%, cutting off a significant lifeline to many vulnerable smashed host economies (Chakraborty & Prasenjit 2020),
households, 27% decline in global trade, about 265 million and fewer economic activity curtails industrial energy
people in low and middle-income countries at risk of acute consumption, halting traveling activity that refines the
food insecurity, about 850 million to 1.1 billion loss of environmental quality in terms of lower emissions and
international tourists and about 100 to 120 million jobs of restoration of stratosphere Ozone (Zambrano-Monserrate
tourism-based industries (UNDP 2020). et al. 2020; Tobías et al. 2020; Khan et al. 2020b; Khan et al.
The outbreak has hysterically spread out to 210 countries 2020c; Collivignarelli et al. 2020). A significant reduction
worldwide and exceeds 19,804,420 confirmed infected (about 20%-30%) of NO2 is observed in the most affected
cases, while 729,591 testified deaths as of 9th Aug 2020 countries such as the USA, China, Spain, France, and
(Worldometer 2020). In order to ’flatten the curve’ (Avi Italy (Muhammad et al. 2020; Dutheil et al. 2020); Wang
13
Disruption in global supply chain and socio‑economic shocks: a lesson from COVID‑19 for… 235
and Su 2020). Similarly, Kanniah et al. (2020) proposed the impact on human life and natural balance. COVID-19
that industrial and anthropogenic activities cessation due turmoil impact on society and economy can be judge through
to COVID-19 lead to a significant reduction of harmful the shrinking of agriculture prices by 20% due to lower
pollutants, which noticeably stemmed from the retrieval of demands from restaurants; Brent Crude dropped by 24% from
ecosystems. Besides these studies, scientific calculations $34/barrel (NPR 2020) to stand at $25.70 (Business insider
and satellite images confirm that air pollution in the form 2020), 1.2% reduction in Chemical industry the worst growth
of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions has dropped, which for the sector since the 2008 financial crash5. Moreover, a
fosters the recovering rate of the stratosphere ozone layer survey of the British Plastics Federation (BPF) shows 80%
(NASA 2020). of respondents anticipated a decline in turnover over the next
The temporary shutdown of global economic activities two quarters, with 98% admitting concern about the negative
at once "retune" the ecosystem; however, the impending impact of the pandemic on business operations (BPF 2020).
challenge is much harder than the prevailing one. Whopping Table 1 further elaborate on the shrinkages in energy demand
unemployment rate and smashing economies around the due to the closure of business activities across different
globe, creating several social hazards that have far beyond countries that leads to lower emissions.
USA 22nd March 2020 29th May 2020 ED decrease approx. 9% to 13%
Australia 23rd March 2020 15th May 2020 ED decrease approx. 8% to 10%
Belgium 18th March 2020 19th April 2020 ED of the industrial and commercial sector decreased by 70%
China 23rd January 2020 8th April 2020 ED decrease by 8% (Jan & Feb compared to the same period in 2019)
France 17th March 2020 11th May 2020 ED decrease by 6% to 12%
Germany 20th March 2020 20th April 2020 ED decrease by 4% to 6%
India 25th March 2020 4th May 2020 ED decrease by 30%
Italy 9th March 2020 4th May 2020 ED decrease by 10.1% in March and 22% after 22nd March
Portugal 13th March 2020 11th April 2020 ED decrease by 3% to 5%
Source: (EIA 2020; AEMO 2020; Rajvikram et al. 2020; S&P Global 2020)
13
236 Z. Yu et al.
Although a deceleration in the number of COVID-related Abrupted widespread of the COVID-19 leaves a mark on
deaths has caused some stabilization of oil prices and the human socio-economic and ecological aspects. A unanimous
stock market, there is still much uncertainty regarding the lockdown and halted economic activities in China, Europe,
future of economies. The most devastating fallout of COVID- and the USA tend to lower emissions that mainly emerged
19 is on global poverty. According to the Oxford poverty from industrial and transport activity (Shrestha et al. 2020;
human initiative (OPHI 2020) estimates that aggregate global Zhang et al. 2019; Zhang et al. 2020). In order to minimize
multidimensional poverty (MPI) across the 70 countries the COVID-19 impact, the social distancing and economic
could increase from 0.095 to 0.125 in 2020, which is the discontinuity measure improved terrestrial air quality by 20
same value as around 2015. This increase in deprivations to 30 percent in the USA, China, Spain, France, and Italy
because of COVID-19 would set poverty reduction back by (Muhammad et al. 2020; Khan and Zhang 2020; Dutheil
5.2 years, with an additional 237 million people falling into et al. 2020; Zhang and Khan 2020; Khan et al. 2021; Wang
multidimensional poverty across the 70 countries. and Su 2020). In the same vein, Kanniah et al. (2020) confirm
It is imperative to recognize the socio-economic impact a reduction of O3 pollution in industrial and anthropogenic
assessment of COVID-19 to ensure food security, employment, activities due to cessation of economic activity as a response
poverty elevation, economic restorations, and sustainable to widespread cases and deaths of COVID-19 patients.
development goal. Economies worldwide are injecting stimulus Similar insights are observed from Fig. 3, visualizing that
packages and incentive schemes to improve their inhabitants’ environmental pollution progressively reduced after the closure
socio-economic status, leaving additional debt burden on of economic activity (Shutdown) and reach its minimal level
government deficits; stretching fiscal imbalances, amongst in full shutdown. Figure 4 shows that lockdown measures until
others. This may cause any future economic turmoil/crises; 25-April reduce the level of global carbon emissions by 15.1%.
thus, global financial regulators and participating economies On the other hand, a higher pollutant exaggerates the
need to devise long-term socio-economic policies, where vulnerability of contagious diseases like SARS, MARS, and
a reasonable investor would allocate to health infrastructure COVID-19 in the form of lungs infection and other respiratory
to counter any future set-back while ensuring the country’s disorder, which lead to higher mortality and morbidity rate; thus,
financial stability. pollution creating an overall adverse effect on global public
The next section explains the impact of COVID-19 on health (Manisalidis et al. 2020; Khan et al. 2019; Khan and Dong
environmental pollution and the association between human 2017b; Pothirat et al. 2019). This phenomenon is empirically
health and pollution. Chapter three thoroughly evaluates tested in Italy by Fattorini et al. (2020), who yields that
economic fallouts of COVID-19 at a global level. Chapter respiratory diseases worsen in highly polluted cities. Likewise,
four briefly explains the social consequences that emerged the medical research also found a strong correlation between air
from the COVID-19. Chapter five concludes the entire pollution and severe health problems such as chronic obstructive
discussion and provides policy implications and suggestions pulmonary disease, breath shortness, and scratchy throat and
for regulatory bodies, the corporate sector, economists, and further lead to worst diseases of lungs such as asthma (Linardon
environmentalists to maintain environmental sustainability et al. 2020; Martelletti and Martelletti 2020; Khan et al. 2019b;
and compensate socio-economic losses due to COVID-19, Arjomandi et al. 2018; Khan et al. 2017; Yin and Wunderink
which also paves a way towards sustainable development. 2018; Khan et al. 2018; Khan and Dong 2017; Wilson et al.
2017; Khan 2019; Carugno et al. 2016), which are similar to
the indications adhered by novel COVID-19. Figure 5 visualizes
2 COVID‑19: Opportunity to restore the historical fossil fuel consumption globally, representing an
environmental sustainability increasing trend till 2019. However, after the 2020 COVID-19
lockdown measure, the emissions level dropped sharply.
A rare benefit of COVID-19 is mainly attributed to the The COVID-19 exposes the global health system’s
reduction of global pollution and restoration of natural resistance capacity and infrastructure that highlights the
ecology (Zambrano-Monserrate et al. 2020; Tobías et al. importance of additional public health measures in higher
2020; Collivignarelli et al. 2020). Several empirical R&D to deal with contiguous diseases while improving
studies, satellite images, and air quality ground data echo necessary health infrastructure. Moreover, a sustainable
that air pollution in the form of carbon emissions, O3 economic system with minimal pollution and resource
pollution, nitrogen dioxide emissions, carbon monoxide, conservation is a prerequisite to increasing people’s immunity
amongst other pollutants, are reduced significantly. This and resistance. Tough undesirably, nature nowadays is
also highlights that extreme pollution is a human-made observed as a "retuning" for ecosystem and humans, given the
phenomenon, and restoration of nature is imperative, ecosystem a "recuperative time" with decreased interference
indicating the potential to achieve sustainable production of humans in the natural environment. For the sake of brevity,
and consumption to avoid such environmental hazards. some recent empirical studies are concluded in Table 2.
13
Disruption in global supply chain and socio‑economic shocks: a lesson from COVID‑19 for… 237
3 COVID‑19 and longlasting economic economic activities are highly reliant on money mobiliza-
Losses COVID‑19 and longlasting tion, which is adversely affected by the current pandemic.
economic losses The economic and social consequences of the epidemic can
be seen in locking cities worldwide, constraints on labor
After the global financial crisis, the world economy faced mobility, travel prohibitions, shutdown airline operations,
new COVID-19-related obstacles that turned into an and slowing down economic activities.
economic crisis response to state closures of economic COVID-19 would significantly impact developing
activities. The current pandemic outbreak (COVID-19) has countries, making it much harder to introduce effective
a profound impact on national and foreign economies. Apart stimulation without experiencing strict foreign exchange
from the massive loss of human lives, the world economy restrictions (UNCTAD 2020). The most fragile countries
has undergone destruction on an unparalleled scale in many are those with poor health infrastructure, highly reliant on
economies. COVID-19 may destroy individual livelihoods, trade and tourism, heavily indebted, and consist of unsteady
companies, markets, and economic activities in general. capital flows (World Bank 2020a). The management of the
From 21st February to 24th March 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak of COVID-19 is attempting to revive the economy,
crisis escalated worldwide, with an increasing number but even after 2020, there is still a high risk of continued
of confirmed cases every day. Numerous organizations financial stress until economic activities resume properly.
are experienced multiple issues with a definite amount of (World Bank 2020a).
damages. Primarily, companies are suffering a multitude of The COVID-19 outbreak is anticipated to have substantial
challenges as a deterioration in demand, interruptions in the implications for overall GDP growth (World Economic,
Supply chain, revocation of export orders, shortage of raw 2020). In the trend, global development is projected to
material, and distortion in transportation networks (Naqvi rebound in the second quarter of 2020. In 2021, growth
2020). However, companies worldwide are witnessing the is expected to rise to 5.4%, almost 0.4% below the April
substantial consequences of the current outbreak on their forecast. Consumption is expected to rise next year with
business operations (World Economic 2020). strengthening investment steadily. In 2021, the Global
Williams (2013) observed that the epidemic diseases GDP as a whole is projected to exceed its point of 2019.
severely undermine the country’s business operations, as Nevertheless, the IMF predicts this year’s global economy
13
238 Z. Yu et al.
will diminish by 3%. Figure 6 exhibits the projected GDP being a slow process. The growth rate in 2021 for developed
growth indicating an increasing trend in COVID-19 and a and emerging markets is anticipated to accelerate to 5.9%,
progressive recovery in the subsequent quarter. mainly reflecting China’s revival forecast (8.2 percent). The
While it said the COVID-19 pushed the planet into a group’s growth rate, excluding China, is forecast to be 5.0%
"crisis like no other," it predicted that global economic in 2020 and 4.7% in 2021, leaving 2021 GDP marginally
growth would accelerate to 5.8% next year if the outbreak below its 2019 rate for this segment of emerging markets and
disappeared in the second half of 2020 (IMF 2020). developing economies (Economics 2020). Table 3 compiles
Recovery in major services-related economies, such as the real GDP growth comparison with corresponding past and
UK or Italy, severely affected by the outbreak anticipated projected future values.
13
Table 2 Summary of the relationship between COVID-19 and environmental pollution
Authors Title Time/Country Variables Finding
Berman and Ebisu (2020) Changes in US air pollution during the January 8th-April 21st in 2017–2020. # of COVID cases, Nitoreng dioxide (NO2), ↑ COVID ↓ NO2
COVID-19 pandemic USA Particulate matter (PM2.5) ↑ COVID ↓ PM2.5
Pata (2020) How is COVID-19 affecting environmental January 15, 2020 to May 4, 2020 COVID-19 Shocks (lockdown), Particulate ↑ COVID ↓ PM2.5
pollution in US cities? US States matter (PM2.5)
Zoran et al. (2020) Assessing the relationship between surface 1 January–30 April 2020 # of confirmed COVID cases and deaths, ↑ PM2.5 ↑ COVID
levels of PM2.5 and PM10 particulate matter Milan, Italy Nitoreng dioxide (NO2), Particulate matter ↑ PM10 ↑ COVID
impact on COVID-19 in Milan, Ital (PM2.5 PM10)
Broomandi et al. (2020) Impact of COVID-19 Event on the Air Quality 21st March to 21st April in 2019 and 2020 # of confirmed COVID cases and deaths, ↑ COVID ↓ NO2
in Iran Tehran, Iran NO2, Sulpher dioxide SO2, Ozone pollution ↑ COVID ↓ SO2
O3, PM2.5 ↑ COVID ↑ O3
↑ COVID ↑ PM2.5
Menut et al. (2020) Impact of lockdown measures to combat March 2020 # of COVID cases/Lockdown, Nitoreng diox- ↑ COVID ↓ NO2
COVID-19 on air quality over western Western Europe ide (NO2), Particulate matter (PM2.5) ↑ COVID ↓ PM2.5
Europe ↑ COVID ↓ O3
Dang and Trinh (2020) Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Improve From October 1st, 2019 to June 1st, 2020. # of COVID cases/Lockdown, Nitoreng diox- ↑ COVID ↓ NO2
Global Air Quality? New Cross-national Global Sample ide (NO2), Particulate matter (PM2.5) ↑ COVID ↓ PM2.5
Evidence on Its Unintended Consequences ↑ COVID ↓ O3
↑ COVID ↓ AQI
Disruption in global supply chain and socio‑economic shocks: a lesson from COVID‑19 for…
Shahzad et al. (2020) Asymmetric nexus between temperature and From 22 January 2020 to 31 March 2020 # of COVID cases and Temperature (Temp) ↑ Temp ↑ COVID
COVID-19 in the top ten affected provinces Ten most-affected provinces in China
of China: A current application of quantile-
on quantile approach
Yongjian et al. (2020) Association between short-term exposure January 23, 2020 to February 29, 2020 China # of COVID cases and Air quality indicators ↑ NO2 ↑ COVID
to air pollution and COVID-19 infection: ↑ CO ↑ COVID
Evidence from China ↑ PM2.5 ↑ COVID
↑ PM10 ↑ COVID
↑ O3 ↑ COVID
Persico and Johnson (2020) The Effects of Increased Pollution on COVID- 66 administrative regions # of COVID deaths ↑ NO2 ↑ COVID
19 Cases and Deaths Italy, Spain, France, and Germany.
13
240 Z. Yu et al.
The global COVID-19 outbreak is anticipated to impact Compared to large enterprises, they typically lack adequate
global GDP between 2.3% and 4.8% (ADB 2020). This resources, particularly monetary and managerial resources,
persistent epidemic has also been projected to decline overall and therefore are not equipped for these shocks that are
FDI by 5% to 15% (UNDP 2020b). UNCTAD report stated persistent in staying longer than anticipated (Bartik 2020).
that the world desperately required a $2.5 trillion support Moreover, access to labor, production stagnation, raw
package to deal with the damages (UNDP 2020a). Therefore, material shortages, and transportation constraints would
the current global recession is expected to be much worse significantly affect these enterprises.
than the crisis of 2008 (UNCTAD 2020). Also, the
International Labor Organization (ILO) found that around
25 million people worldwide could lose their jobs (income 4 The social disruption of COVID‑19
losses of workers as high as US$ 3.4 trillion) (ILO 2020b).
Developing countries’ income losses are expected to reach The COVID-19 pandemic has headed all suffered economies
$220 billion (UNDP 2020b). worldwide to unprecedented action, trade interruptions,
Moreover, World Bank anticipated that South Asia might and an intense global economic crisis. These all challenge
appear in its worst economic outlook in 40 years, as almost the supply of essential medicines and other resources.
half of the nations dropped into severe recession (World The distributors’ export restrictions of both COVID and
Bank 2020b). Worldwide businesses, regardless of scale, non-COVID goods, i.e., India, banned various critical
dependent on China’s materials, have begun to experience active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and finished
production contractions. Suspension of transport channels products, while these restrictions have since been revoked
between countries further hindered global economic activity. in the UK, similar exports have been suspended. Moreover,
Furthermore, some customer and company turmoil has disrupted medicines’ slow production process severely exaggerated
normal business trends and generated market anomalies. many countries (Anthony McDonnell 2020). The COVID-
The business activities of micro, small, and medium- 19 pandemic has raised a sophisticated threat to Healthcare
sized enterprises are the primary victim of COVID-19. worldwide. In general, healthcare Workers are facing one
13
Disruption in global supply chain and socio‑economic shocks: a lesson from COVID‑19 for… 241
of the world’s most disadvantaged health issues. High development, with the world’s poor and vulnerable most
healthcare prices, shortage of safety equipment like N95 affected (United Nations 2020). A more recent ILO study
Masks, and low ICU beds and ventilators determined indicates that 81 percent, or approximately 2.7 billion
vulnerabilities in patient care quality. employees, of all global employees (ILO) are affected by
Although the outbreak’s economic effect persists the lockdown (ILO 2020a). Figure 7 displays the strike in
and becomes more and more volatile, it is quite clear unemployment between 2019 and 2020.
that developing thrifts will be unexceptional before it According to the IMF (2020), the share of unemployed
is strengthened. (UNCTAD 2020). However, poverty is people in the United States reached 10.4 percent and marked
projected to be raised at approx. 11 million people. (World the end of this decade of growth as one of the world’s
Bank 2020a). The pandemic of COVID-19 gradually became leading economies. Millions of the workforce have also
the greatest economic and human catastrophe in our lives, been placed into government-supported job protection
spreading to all nations. The pandemic’s consequences schemes as economic sectors such as tourism or hospitality
affected the most fragile and pushing them behind. The have been shut down (Jones 2020). Moreover, the COVID-
United Nations report found that COVID-19 has reversed 19 economic downturn badly hit women’s workforces and
the growth of poverty, Healthcare, and education. During create an anomaly of gender inequality. Unlike previous
the short period, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered an crises, women’s employment is a considerable risk than
extraordinary disaster, causing more damage to Sustainable men’s, mainly due to the service sector’s downturn.
13
242 Z. Yu et al.
Simultaneously, women represent a significant proportion men’s (ILOSTAT 2020). Since the COVID-19 crisis has a
of front-line employees, particularly in the health and social substantial impact in specific ways on women workers, there
care sectors. is a possibility that some developments from these decades
Furthermore, the increased burden of unpaid treatment will be reversed, and gender inequalities intensified in the
caused by disasters affects women more than men. Until the labor market. Figure 8 shows the global status of vulnerable
COVID-19 crisis, 1.3 billion or 44.3% of women worldwide employees due to lower wages and fewer working hours.
were employed, compared to 2 billion or 70% of men COVID-19 reforms trigger haphazard conditions in
(ILOSTAT 2020). However, economic downturns impact many of the world’s counterparts, resulting in scarcity of
males more than females, considering that males appear food for consumption, contributing to rising food prices
to be involved by industries closely linked to economic across countries that ultimately curtail the general public’s
cycles (e.g., construction and production), while in purchasing power. Even though the distortion in the global
industries less vulnerable (e.g., health care and education), supply chain of food has gained public interest. The influence
females dominate. The economic downturn of COVID-19 of the current pandemic on agricultural output has not been
varies from previous crises, considering that industries fully understood; most current studies are based on logistics
desensitized to economic instability absorb a significant and supply of goods FAO (2020a); Gong (2020); Gray
proportion of female jobs. In 2020, 527 million women (2020); Reardon (2020). Throughout the outbreak, typical
work in these industries, comprising 41% of total female offline distribution networks were ineffective. Also, on
jobs than 35% of total male jobs. This means that the current one side, the short-term demand for agricultural products
epidemic is likely to upset women’s jobs more severely than collapsed due to the quarantine policy. “Closed community/
13
Disruption in global supply chain and socio‑economic shocks: a lesson from COVID‑19 for… 243
village management” and “outdoor family restrictions” laws 5 Conclusion and policy implications
drastically reduced recurrence rates and outside consumption.
The closing of traditional urban sales departments compelled SARS-COV-2 pandemic has truly transformed the world,
buyers not to purchase as intended. On the other hand, due to sparing no country in its path; the communicable disease due
logistics restraints, supply chains were shattered. Both inter- to globalization spread quickly worldwide. To prevent the
regional and intra-regional logistics instantly gave way to spread, governments worldwide are propagating; 20s soap
medical workers and supplies. water handwash, facial cover (mouth and nose), sanitizer,
China’s lessons revealed that the shutdown of people’s social distancing (avoid crowded places), avoid contact
activities/movements against COVID-19 interrupted with sick people, and the stricter countermeasure includes
production in all affected economies. That is a substantial lockdowns and smart lockdowns. The world is trying to
hazard to the long-term food supply (FAO 2020b). However, adjust as the impact has been on all three P’s: profit, people,
such cases are not only observed in China but also in other and the planet. Profit and people are negatively affected;
economies. This revealed that the extensive pandemic however, COVID-pandemic has been a blessing in disguise
had a more significant effect on unpreserved agricultural for the planet.
output. Although the prevention and control measures The lockdowns are the most strict measure to counter the
disrupted the existence growth cycle of agricultural communicable disease, restricting public movement. In this
goods, further disrupting regular food supply cycles and restriction, a stark decline is observed in consumer demand
rising medium-term market volatility. In Asia, where the for both tangibles and intangibles products. The effect is
population is enormous, and the demand for essential grain demand and supply and the restriction of idle factories to
is exceptionally inelastic. Lower supply may lead to higher protect the massive workforce infected with the deadly virus.
prices. Additionally, the current epidemic might perhaps Businesses are now at a standstill and even fear closure
accelerate the swing of the “double season” rice crop permanently. In the aviation industry, the International Air
system into a “single season,” a long-term threat to overall Transport Association (IATA) is expected to book a loss of
production and lead towards an extreme shortage of food US$ 84 billion in 2020, with hundreds and thousands lay off
(Qiu 2020). (Khan et al. 2021b; IATA 2020).
Figure 9 shows the spatial distribution of multidimensional The societal impact because of movement restriction
poverty across the globe. The dark red color indicates higher is affecting public mental and physical health. Work
multidimensional poverty in most of the COVID-19 affected from home is new for employees whose social-economic
countries, among others. conditions are better. The work from home and
13
244 Z. Yu et al.
unemployment in the pandemic will result in a high fertility 5.1 Short term actions
rate worldwide. Husbands and wives and partners now
have more time to think to increase their family. The other 1. To immediately form a pandemic task force, enabling
reason for a higher rate is less awareness of contraceptives them with technology and human resource. The task
and education in developing countries. A disturbing trend force will serve as an anchor for all the coordinated
that is also observed in COVID extended lockdowns is the actives needed to countermeasure the pandemic. As the
high rate of divorces. The measure of social distancing decision making will be centralized, the multi-echelon
has its fallout, too; people cannot socialize, which has network can easily balance the essential requirements
psychological consequences like violence and early stages of food and medical items in the whole system. Further
of depression. correct information at the right time can be shared with
The most troublesome societal impact is on patients all stakeholders.
with severe ailment who needs cancer radiation therapy, 2. Regional food and medical supply warehouses and
kidney dialysis, or children with routine vaccination and small distributions centers are needed to be built in
pregnant mothers are one of few such examples. Hospital public parks or at the center of the cities for efficient
logistics faces failure in both developed and developing distributions in densely populated areas.
countries as the current health system has collapsed. 3. Health care facilities should be mobilized; lorries, cars,
The food supply and education sector are also severely and motorbikes can be used for the purpose. Motor-
affected; countries and cities have good technological bikes can be most effective in densely populated areas,
infrastructure coped by conducting online classes in quickly responding to any emergency.
schools and universities. Food supply, although it is still 4. Smart lockdown is the most effective measure which
a looming crisis in densely populated cities. However, as can help the economy and prevent further spread. The
time pass, governments and corporates are learning to only area which is affected the most be quarantine and
handle food logistics. Due to less supply of commodities, people in other areas with necessary measures (facial
prices have risen. Along with the price hike of essential mask and social distancing) can operate with ease.
goods, there is an observable escalating unemployment 5. AAA (accessible, affordable, and available)
rate to a dangerous level globally and, as a result, communication should be provided to the masses. 3G
climbing crime rate. or 4G internet technology is most suited for the purpose.
Government lockdown has been a blessing in disguise AAA communication can help authorities to connect
for the planet and environment, the only positive impact and assist the public during emergencies. Cellular
observed by researchers. Hard facts prove that air quality technology and smartphones are the most reliable.
worldwide has improved with decreasing CO2 emissions. 6. Telehealth portals’ formation can reduce pressure on
As a result, a sharp decline of 3 to 4C is recorded, and hospitals as sick patients can avoid going to the already
ozone in many parts of the world is repaired due to stressed health system due to COVID infection.
less air pollution. The main reason for fewer carbon 7. Agri emergency on the essential item is also an important
emissions is the closure of non-essential factories, step to prevent any shortage during the COVID crisis as
restriction on air travel, and the ban on public transport the crisis global, and all agri-exporting countries are still
for the daily commute. Oceans and lakes ecosystems recovering from lockdowns.
are globally repaired due to less traffic. Medical waste 8. TTT (track, trace, and test) for early COVID detection
is the only negative on the environment, as PE dresses has been very effective and should be implemented in
and disposal mask usage has increased many folds, every country. This will also assist in smart lockdowns,
PE used by medical staff and disposable facial masks. and businesses in areas with no infections can function
The positive impact on the environment is significant normally.
in contrast to medical wastages. Air quality test results 9. Combine testing of 20 or more suspected COVID
make headlines and much relief for the public to breathe patients can reduce overall testing costs. A large popu-
fresh air (Picheta 2020). However, it is pertinent to lation can be tested in less time.
mention that the repair is for till lockdowns are in place. 10. Mobile Testing should be conducted to identify most
In this COVID pandemic, the only good news is that the infected areas in cities, which help in smart lockdown
Himalayas are visible for the first time in 50 years, quite and health personal can better focus as per data.
welcoming and remembered. 11. Awareness campaigns with NGOs’ help should start
We suggest government officials, Healthcare personal, on all mediums, so people can better care and help to
and environmentalists worldwide the following short term stop the spread. Rural areas in developing countries are
actions and long term strategies fight the COVID pandemic always not well connected. Person to person interaction
more effectively: by a health worker would guide for better prevention.
13
Disruption in global supply chain and socio‑economic shocks: a lesson from COVID‑19 for… 245
13
246 Z. Yu et al.
Dang H-AH, Trinh T-A (2020) Does the COVID-19 pandemic Khan SAR, Yu Z, Sharif A, Golpîra H (2020b) Determinants of
improve global air quality? New cross-national evidence on its economic growth and environmental sustainability in South
unintended consequences, GLO Discussion Paper Asian Association for Regional Cooperation: evidence from
Dutheil F et al (2020) COVID-19 as a factor influencing air panel ARDL. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(36):45675–45687
pollution? Environ Pollut 263:114466. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. Khan SAR, Yu Z, Belhadi A, Mardani A (2020c) Investigating the
envpol.2020.114466 effects of renewable energy on international trade and environ-
Economic W (2020) World economic prospects monthly. Economic mental quality. J Environ Manage 272:111089
Outlook. World Economy. Vol. 44, Issue 2 Khan SAR, Yu Z, Golpira H, Sharif A, Mardani A (2021) A state-
FAO (2020a) The FAO food price index. World Food Situation. of-the-art review and meta-analysis on sustainable supply
Released date: 2 April chain management: Future research directions. J Clean Prod
FAO (2020b) COVID-19 and the risk to food supply chains: how to 278:123357
respond? . Rome Khan SAR, Zhang Y (2020) Assessing the eco-environmental per-
Fan Y, Zhao K, Shi ZL et al (2019) Bat coronaviruses in China. formance: an PLS-SEM approach with practice-based view.
Viruses 11, 210. associated particulate matter: a preliminary Int J Logist Res Appl. https://doi.org/10.1080/13675567.2020.
study. Sci. Total Environ. 479:109–116 1754773
Fattorini D, Regoli F (2020) Role of the chronic air pollution Khan SAR, Zhang Y, Anees M, Golpîra H, Lahmar A, Qianli D
levels in the Covid-19 outbreak risk in Italy. Environmental (2018) Green supply chain management, economic growth
Pollution 264:114732 and environment: A GMM based evidence. J Clean Prod
Gong BZ (2020) A balance act: minimizing economic loss while 185:588–599
controlling novel coronavirus pneumonia. J Chin Gov, 1-20 Khan SAR, Zhang Y, Kumar A, Zavadskas E, Streimikiene D
Gray R (2020) Agriculture, transportation, and the COVID-19 crisis. (2020a) Measuring the impact of renewable energy, public
. Can J Agric Econ, 1-5 health expenditure, logistics, and environmental performance
Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Y et al (2020) Clinical on sustainable economic growth. Sustain Dev 28(4):833–843
features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Khan SAR, Zhang Y, Sarwat S, Godil DI, Amin S, Shujaat S (2021b)
Wuhan, China. Lancet 395, 497–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/ The role of block chain technology in circular economy prac-
S0140-6736(20)30183-5 tices to improve organisational performance. Int J Logist Res
ILO (2020a) COVID-19 and the world of work: Updated estimates Appl. https://doi.org/10.1080/13675567.2021.1872512
and analysis. ILO Monitor (2nd edition). International Labour Lai C-C, Shih T-P, Ko W-C, Tang H-J, Hsueh P-R (2020) Severe
Organization acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and
ILO (2020b) COVID-19: Protecting workers in the workplace. . coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): the epidemic and the
International Labour Organization. challenges. Int J Antimicrob Agents 55:105924
ILOSTAT (2020) ILO: A quantum leap for gender equality: for a Linardon J, Fuller-Tyszkiewicz M (2020) Attrition and adherence in
better future of work for all. ILO Department of Statistics smartphone-delivered interventions for mental health problems:
IMF (2020) International Monetary Fund . International Monetary A systematic and meta-analytic review. J Consult Clin Psychol
Fund 88:1
Jones L, PD (2020) Coronavirus: A visual guide to the economic Menut L, Bessagnet B, Siour G et al (2020) Impact of lockdown meas-
impact. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/ ures to combat Covid-19 on air quality over western Europe. Sci
business-51706225 Total Environ 140426
Kanniah KD, Kamarul Zaman NAF, Kaskaoutis DG, Latif MT Manisalidis I, Stavropoulou E, Stavropoulos A, Bezirtzoglou E (2020)
(2020) COVID-19’s impact on the atmospheric environment Environmental and health impacts of air pollution: a review. Front.
in the Southeast Asia region. Sci Total Environ 736:139658. Public Health 8:14
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139658 Martelletti L, Martelletti P (2020) Air pollution and the novel covid-
Khan SAR (2019) The nexus between carbon emissions, poverty, 19 disease: a putative disease risk factor. SN compr. Clin Med
economic growth, and logistics operations-empirical evi- Apr 15, 1–5
dence from southeast Asian countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res Muhammad S, Long X, Salman M (2020) COVID-19 pandemic and
26(13):13210–13220 environmental pollution: a blessing in disguise? Sci Total Envi-
Khan SAR, Jian C, Zhang Y, Golpîra H, Kumar A, Sharif A (2019b) ron 138820 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138820
Environmental, social and economic growth indicators spur Naqvi H (2020) Economists warn of recession amid virus lockdowns.
logistics performance: From the perspective of South Asian Retrieved from Profit https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/
Association for Regional Cooperation countries. J Clean Prod 03/30/economists-warn-of-recession-amid-virus-lockdowns/
214:1011–1023 Nation U (2020) Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Khan SAR, Qianli D (2017) Impact of green supply chain management Department of Economic and Social Affairs-UN
practices on firms’ performance: an empirical study from the per- OPHI (2020) https://ophi.org.uk/global-mpi 2020
spective of Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(20):16829–16844 Pothirat C, Chaiwong W, Liwsrisakun C, Bumroongkit C, Deesomchok
Khan SAR, Qianli D (2017b) Does national scale economic and envi- A, Theerakittikul T, Limsukon A, Tajarernmuang P, Phetsuk N
ronmental indicators spur logistics performance? Evidence from (2019) Acute effects of air pollutants on daily mortality and
UK. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24(34):26692–26705 hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.
Khan SAR, Qianli D, SongBo W, Zaman K, Zhang Y (2017) Travel J Thorac Dis 11:3070–3083
and tourism competitiveness index: The impact of air transpor- Pata UK (2020) How is COVID-19 affecting environmental pollution
tation, railways transportation, travel and transport services on in US cities? Evidence from Asymmetric Fourier Causality
international inbound and outbound tourism. J Air Transp Manag Test. Air Qual Atmos Heal 1–7
58:125–134 Persico C, Johnson KR (2020) The effects of increased pollution on
Khan SAR, Sharif A, Golpîra H, Kumar A (2019) A green ideology COVID-19 cases and deaths. Available SSRN 3633446
in Asian emerging economies: From environmental policy and Qiu YC (2020) Impacts of social and economic factors on the
sustainable development. Sustain Dev 2(6):1063–1075 transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238
13
Disruption in global supply chain and socio‑economic shocks: a lesson from COVID‑19 for… 247
Reardon TB (2020) How COVID-19 may disrupt food supply chains Other references
in developing countries. IFPRI Research Post, 2 April 2020
Shahzad F, Shahzad U, Fareed Z et al (2020) Asymmetric nexus
Avi Loeb AB (2020) Flattening the COVID-19 curves, [Internet].
between temperature and COVID-19 in the top ten affected
Scientific american blog network, [cited 2020 July 30]. Available
provinces of China: A current application of quantile-on-
from: https:// b logs. s cien t ific a meri c an com/observations/
quantile approach. Sci Total Environ 139115
flattening-the-covid-19-curves/
Shrestha AM, Shrestha UB, Sharma R, Bhattarai S, Tran HNT,
AEMO (2020) COVID-19 demand impact in Australia. https://aemo.com.
Rupakheti M (2020) Lockdown caused by COVID-19 pandemic
au/en/news/demand-impact-australia-covid19. date accessed: 17th
reduces air pollution in cities worldwide. Environ. Pollut.
July, 2020
(submitted paper)
Buck T, Arnold M, Chazan G, Cookson C (2020) Coronavirus declared a
Tobías A, Carnerero C, Reche C, Massagué J, Via M, Minguillón
pandemic as fears of economic crisis mount, [Internet], [cited 2020
MC, Alastuey A, Querol X (2020) Changes in air quality during
July 19]. Available from: https://www.ft.com/content/d72f1e54-
the lockdown in Barcelona (Spain) one month into the SARS-
6396-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5
CoV-2 epidemic. Sci Total Environ 726:138540. https://doi.
Business Insider (2020) GmbH finanzen net, ‘There is no escape’:
org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138540
stocks, oil, and bitcoin plunge as US lawmakers fight over
UNCTAD (2020) The Covid-19 shock to developing countries:
coronavirus rescue package Markets Insider, [Internet]. markets.
Towards a “whatever it takes” programme for the two-thirds
businessinsider.com. [cited 2020 Aug 8]. Available from:
of the world’s population being left behind. . United Nations
https://m arket s.b usine ssins ider.c om/n ews/stocks/n o-e scape-
Conference on Trade and Development
stocks-oil-bitcoin-plungesenate-argues-coronavirus-bill-2020-3-
UNDP (2020a) Assessment report on impact of COVID-19 pandemic
1029021850
on Chinese enterprises. . United Nations Development
BPF (2020) Plastics trade body publishes first study of coronavirus
Programme
impact on UK manufacturing,[Internet]. [cited 2020 Aug 8].
UNDP (2020b) COVID-19: Looming crisis in developing countries
Available from:https://w ww.b pf.c o.u k/a rticl e/p lasti cs-t rade-b ody-
threatens to devastate economies and ramp up inequality. United
publishes-first-study-of-coronavirus-impact-1602.aspx
Nations Development Programme
COVID-19 is coming for the chemical industry in 2020, BASF
Wang Q, Su M (2020) A preliminary assessment of the impact of
frets | IndustryWeek, [Internet]. [cited 2020 Aug 8]. Available
COVID-19 on environment–a case study of China. Sci Total
from:https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/planning-
Environ 728:138915. https:// d oi. o rg/ 1 0. 1 016/j. s cito t env.
f oreca sting/a rticl e/2 11250 45/c ovid1 9-i s-c oming-f or-t heche mical-
2020.138915
industry-in-2020-basf-frets
Wilson A, Reich BJ, Nolte CG, Spero TL, Hubbell B, Rappold AG
CPN (2020) (Coronavirus pandemic News Coronavirus): travel
(2017) Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality
restrictions, border shutdowns by country| Al Jazeera, [Internet].
at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces. J
[cited 2020 July 30]. Available from:https://www.aljazeera.com/
Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 27:118–124
news/2020/03/coronavirus-travel-restrictionsborder-shutdowns-
Williams S (2013) Small and medium-sized enterprises and
country-200318091505922.html
sustainability: Managers’ values and engagement with
EIA (2020) https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43636.
environmental and climate change issues. Business Strategy and
Date accessed: 27th June, 2020. 2020
the Environment. 22(3):173–186
GOV UK (2020) Guidance on social distancing for everyone in the
Yin Y, Wunderink RG (2018) MERS, SARS and other coronaviruses
UK, [Internet]. GOV.UK. [cited 2020 July 30]. Available from:
as causes of pneumonia. Respirology 23:130–137
https://w ww.g ov.uk/g overn ment/p ublic ations/c ovid-1 9-g uidance-
Yongjian Z, Jingu X, Fengming H, Liqing C (2020) Association
o n- s ocial- d ista n cing- a nd- for- v ulne r able- p eople/ g uida n ce-
between short-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19
onsocial-distancing-for
infection: Evidence from China. Sci Total Environ 138704
IATA (2020) https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-06-09-01/
Zambrano-Monserrate MA, Ruano MA, Sanchez-Alcalde L (2020)
NASA (2020) NASA Science MARS 2020 Mission Perseverance
Indirect effects of COVID-19 on the environment Sci. Total
Rover https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/ [Accessed on December
Environ. 728 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138813
03, 2020]
Zhang R, Zhang Y, Lin H, Feng X, Fu T-M, Wang Y (2020) NOx
NPR (2020) Oil prices, stocks plunge after Saudi Arabia stuns world
emission reduction and recovery during COVID-19 in east China.
with massive discounts, [Internet]. NPR.org. [cited 2020 Aug 8].
Atmosphere 11(4):433. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040433
Available from:https://w ww.n pr.o rg/2 020/0 3/0 8/8 13439 501/s audi-
Zhang Y, Khan SAR, Kumar A, Golpîra H, Sharif A (2019) Is tourism
arabia-stuns-world-with-massive-discount-in-oilsold- to-asia-
really affected by logistical operations and environmental
europe-and-u-
degradation? An empirical study from the perspective of Thailand.
Picheta R (2020) was a terrible year. But the world’s in better shape
J Clean Prod 227:158–166
than you might think, https://e ditio n.c nn.c om/2 020/1 2/2 5/e urope/
Zhang Y, Ma T, Khan SAR (2020) Investigating the effect of govern-
2020-improving-world-recap-scli-intl/index.html [Accessed on
ment subsidies on end-of-life vehicle recycling. Waste Manag
December 02, 2020]
Res September 2020. https://d oi.o rg/1 0.1 177/0 73424 2X209 53893
Rajvikram M, Shafiullah GM, Kannadasan R, Mudgal V, Arif MT, Jamal
Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, Li X, Yang B, Song J, Lu R (2020) A
T et al (2020) COVID-19: Impact Analysis and Recommendations
novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019.
for Power and Energy Sector Operation EnerarXiv-preprint.https://
New England Journal of Medicine. https://d oi.o rg/1 0.1 056/
www.researchgate.net/publication/341204513_COVID-19_Impact_
NEJMoa2001017
Analysis_and_Recommendations_for_Power_and_Energy_Sector_
Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN (2020) Assess-
Operation_EnerarXiv-preprint. Date accessed: 17th July, 2020
ing the relationship between surface levels of PM2. 5 and PM10
S&P Global (2020) Japan, Singapore lockdowns to stifle Asian gas,
particulate matter impact on COVID-19 in Milan, Italy. Sci Total
power demand further. https://w ww.s pglob al.c om/p latts/e n/m arket-
Environ 139825
i nsig h ts/ l atest- n ews/ n atur a l- g as/ 0 40720- j apan- s inga p ore-
13
248 Z. Yu et al.
l ockd owns- t o- stifle- a sian- gas- p ower- d emand- f urth e r. Date WHO (2020) Rolling updates on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at
accessed: 17th June, 2020. 2020 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/
UNDP (2020c) https://w ww.u ndp.o rg/c onten t/u ndp/e n/h ome/ events-asthey-happen
c oronavirus/s ocio-e conom ic-i mpact-o f-c ovid-1 9.h tml
Worldometer (2020) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Publisher’s Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to
countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/ jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
13