Nhóm 2 - Vĩ Mô - Bài Tập Thảo Luận Buổi 2 -Update
Nhóm 2 - Vĩ Mô - Bài Tập Thảo Luận Buổi 2 -Update
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Information and communicationh
Financial and insurance activities 8,148 8,762
Real estate activities 19,173 21,589
Professional, scientific, and technical activitiesi
Administrative and support service activities i
Public administration and defense; compulsory social security j 37,809 40,891
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Other service activitiesk 11,420 12,049
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and
services-producing activities of households for own use … …
Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies … …
Less: Financial intermediation services indirectly measured … …
Gross value added at basic prices … …
Plus: Taxes less subsidies on production and imports … …
Net factor income from abroad (6,327) (6,440)
GNI 435,319 474,855
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X
M
Structure of Demand (% of GDP at current market prices)
Household final consumption 66.5 64.9
Government final consumption 6.4 6.3
Gross capital formation 29.6 31.2
Changes in inventories 2.0 2.0
Exports of goods and services 55.0 54.6
Imports of goods and services 57.5 56.9
Statistical discrepancy -0.0 -0.1
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Expenditure on GDP at 1994 | 2010 market prices 273,666 292,535
Final consumption expenditure 200,665 210,027
Household final consumption 182,420 190,577
Government final consumption 18,245 19,450
Gross capital formation 83,496 92,487
Gross fixed capital formation 78,552 86,972
Public … …
Private … …
Changes in inventories 4,944 5,515
Acquisitions less disposals of valuables … …
Exports of goods and servicesm (10,085) 165,292
Exports of goods …
Exports of services …
Less: Imports of goods and services 176,987
Imports of goods …
Imports of services …
Statistical discrepancy (410) 1,716
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At Current Market Prices ($)
Per capita GDP 401.5 413.5
Coal (t ’000 )
Production 11,609 13,397
Exports 3,251 4,292
Imports … …
Consumption … …
Electricity (1000 $)
Production 26,683 30,673
Exports 1,650 1,950
Imports … …
Consumption … …
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Communication … …
Recreation and cultureq 101.1 100.2
Education 103.2 103.2
Restaurants and hotelsr … …
Miscellaneous goods and services 102.6 102.5
Consumer (capital city)p; previous year = 100 99.7 100.7
Food and nonalcoholic beverages 98.9 100.7
Alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics 101.9 102.4
Clothing and footwear 100.0 100.5
Housing, water,
Furnishings, electricity,
household gas, and and
equipment, other fuels household
routine 101.8 101.6
maintenance 101.3 101.4
Health 101.3 102.6
Transport 99.3 99.1
Communication … …
Recreation and cultureq 100.3 102.1
Education 101.8 102.2
Restaurants and hotelsr … …
Miscellaneous goods and services 101.2 101.7
Producer (national); 2010 = 100 51.0 52.1
Implicit GDP deflator; 1994 | 2010 = 100 161.4 164.5
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On deposits
Savings 0.2 0.2
Time: 6 months 4.8 6.2
12 monthsx 6.2 6.8
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
Central Governmenty
Revenue … …
Taxes … …
Taxes on income, profits, and capital gains … …
Payable by individuals … …
Payable by corporations and other enterprises … …
Other taxes on income, profits, and capital gains … …
Taxes on payroll and workforce … …
Taxes on property … …
Taxes on goods and services … …
Taxes on international trade and transaction … …
Other taxes … …
Social contributions … …
Grants … …
Other revenue … …
Expense … …
Compensation of employees … …
Use of goods and services … …
Consumption of fixed capital … …
Interest … …
Subsidies … …
Grants … …
Social benefits … …
Other expense … …
Net operating balance … …
Gross operating balance … …
Transactions in Nonfinancial Assets
Net/gross investment in nonfinancial assets … …
Fixed assets … …
Inventories … …
Valuables … …
Nonproduced assets … …
Expenditure … …
Net lending/Net borrowing … …
Primary balance … …
Transactions in Financial Assets and Liabilities (Financing)
Net acquisition of financial assets … …
Domestic … …
External … …
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Net incurrence of liabilities … …
Domestic … …
External … …
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BALANCE OF PAYMENTSaa calendar year ($ million)
Current account 1,296 682
Balance on goods 376 481
Exports 14,448 15,027
Imports (14,072) (14,546)
Balance on services (550) (572)
Credit 2,702 2,810
Debit (3,252) (3,382)
Balance on primary income (262) (477)
Credit 331 318
Debit (593) (795)
Balance on secondary income 1,732 1,250
Credit 1,732 1,250
Debit … …
Capital account … …
Credit … …
Debit … …
Financial account (754) 220
Direct investment 1,298 1,300
Portfolio investment … …
Financial derivatives … …
Other investment (2,052) (1,080)
Net errors and omissions (864) (862)
Overall balance (322) 40
Reserves and related items 322 (40)
International investment position … …
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EXTERNAL INDEBTEDNESS as of end of period ($ million)
Total debt outstanding and disbursed 12,841 12,633
Long-term debt 11,640 11,488
Public and publicly guaranteed 11,640 11,488
Private nonguaranteed – –
Short-term debt 823 719
Use of IMF credit 378 426
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Direct economic loss attributed to disasters ($ million) … …
Scoreand
Policies of adoption
Programs and implementation of national disaster risk
reduction strategies in
line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–
2030 (index) … …
Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local
disaster risk reduction
strategies
Fossil-fuel in line (consumption
subsidies with national disaster risk reduction
and production) strategies of
as a proportion (%) … …
total GDP (%) … …
Renewable energy
Energy intensity share in in
measured the totalof
terms final energy
primary consumption
energy and GDP(%)(MJ/$ 57.7 56.1
2017 PPP GDP) 4.2 4.2
… = data not available; | = marks break in series; (-/+) 0 or 0.0 = magnitude is less than half of unit employed; * = provisiona
freight; CO₂ = carbon dioxide; D = dong; fob = free on board; GDP = gross domestic product; GNI = gross national income; IM
μg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter; NPISHs = nonprofit institutions serving households; PM = particulate matter; PPP = purch
a For 2000–2020, data are based on the International Conference of Labor Statistics (ICLS 13) standards. For 2021 onward,
b Refers to total number of persons engaged in any activity regardless of age.
c For 2000–2002, includes mining and quarrying; and electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply.
d For 2000–2004, data on transportation and storage and information and communication are consolidated under the indicato
e For 2010–2018, data on labor force have been adjusted for the 2019 Population and Housing Census. Unemployment rate
f For 2000–2009, the GDP data series is based on unreassessed/unreevaluated scale. Starting 2010, the GDP data are bas
g For 2000–2004, includes water supply; and sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities.
h For 2000–2004, data on transportation and storage and information and communication are consolidated under transportat
i For 2000–2004, included in other services.
j For 2000-2004, includes education, human health and social work activities, and arts, entertainment, and recreation.
k For 2005, components for other services were disaggregated into separate indicators.
l For 2005 onward, methodology was revised and 2010 base year was used.
m For 2000 data refer to exports less imports of goods and services. Annual growth rate cannot be calculated separately for e
n Derived from data on balance of secondary income of balance of payments.
o Refers to imports of refined petroleum products.
p For 2000–2019, figures are based on Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) 1999. For 2
q Includes restaurants and hotels.
r Data on restaurants and hotels are consolidated under recreation and culture.
s Based on an expanded monetary survey that includes 4 government and 24 nongovernment commercial banks.
t Includes time and savings deposits and deposit substitutes.
u Refers to foreign currency deposits.
v Includes cooperatives.
w For 2000–2010, data were estimated based on the annual nonweighted average of the monthly deposit rates provided by th
x For 2000–2010, refers to maximum interest per annum for state enterprise deposit
y Until the 53rd edition of the Key Indicators of Asia and the Pacific, Viet Nam’s data on government finance from the Ministry
and the Pacific, with the support of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), the MOF submitted its 2003-2
onward government finance data.
z Includes foreign aid in goods.
aa Prior to 2014, data are based on the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual (fifth edition). For 2014 onward, data are based on
ab Data from the World Bank are expressed in kiloton (kt), while data provided in the table are expressed in thousand metric to
ac Other greenhouse gas emissions refer to hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride.
ad Refers to carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion.
ae Disasters may include drought, extreme temperature, flood, landslide, storm, or wildfire.
Sources:
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Labor Force GSO. Official communication, 5 June 2024.
Production Index
Money and Interest Rates State Bank of Viet Nam. Official communication
Government Finance (% of GDP at current market prices) Asian Development Bank estimates using econ
Total long-term debt (% of total debt) Asian Development Bank estimates using data
(accessed 30 June 2024).
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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9,998 11,812 13,778
9,763 10,858 12,737 47,825 55,869 65,861
24,452 27,287 31,304 61,413 70,501 83,322
12,908 14,450 16,975
3,865 4,358 5,127
44,940 54,016 61,255 23,038 26,737 31,310
26,948 30,718 34,843
12,262 13,922 15,964
6,319 7,177 8,253
13,161 14,379 16,476 13,998 16,173 18,927
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57% 59% 66% 63% 66% 71%
74% 66% 69% 85%
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313,247 336,243 362,435 | 1,588,646 1,699,501 1,820,667
225,609 243,515 260,940 | 1,106,408 1,189,879 1,305,445
205,113 221,545 237,262 | 1,022,157 1,098,469 1,205,895
20,496 21,970 23,678 | 84,251 91,410 99,549
104,256 116,623 128,916 | 443,761 496,274 629,267
98,160 109,843 121,312 | 412,327 453,157 562,627
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
6,096 6,780 7,604 | 31,434 43,116 66,640
… … … … … …
179,529 195,340 235,219 | 913,341 1,043,134 1,160,960
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
196,632 226,787 265,341 | 902,088 1,038,899 1,325,880
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
4,775 7,553 2,702 | 27,224 9,114 50,875
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441.2 491.5 561.5 699.5 795.1 919.4
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
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… … … … … 97.2
99.4 99.1 101.5 101.6 103.0 103.2
102.9 104.7 100.9 101.9 104.4 103.3
… … … … … …
101.9 102.9 105.1 105.8 106.1 107.7
105.4 104.3 106.3 107.5 108.8 108.4
111.7 104.3 110.3 109.9 111.8 111.9
102.6 105.4 107.5 104.5 104.5 104.7
100.2 105.2 103.9 102.5 104.7 104.0
104.5 109.0 103.1 107.5 110.9 111.6
100.4 101.2 103.6 103.3 104.4 104.8
100.4 115.7 105.7 102.6 102.2 107.0
98.2 100.5 100.0 107.2 104.9 103.1
… … … … … …
104.7 105.5 101.1 105.6 106.0 104.7
102.6 101.0 101.9 103.7 104.8 103.2
… … … … … …
102.4 101.3 101.3 105.6 107.3 110.6
53.0 54.9 58.4 61.0 63.5 67.9
171.0 182.4 197.4 57.5 62.5 68.5
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2.4 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.1
7.4 6.5 7.0 7.8 7.8 8.2
7.8 7.2 7.6 8.4 8.4 8.8
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
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… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
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(607) (1,905) (1,000) (561) (164) (7,092)
(1,054) (2,555) (2,287) (2,439) (2,776) (10,438)
16,706 20,149 26,485 32,447 39,826 48,561
(17,760) (22,704) (28,772) (34,886) (42,602) (58,999)
(749) (778) (872) (296) (8) (894)
2,948 3,272 3,867 4,176 5,100 6,030
(3,697) (4,050) (4,739) (4,472) (5,108) (6,924)
(725) (811) (934) (1,206) (1,429) (2,190)
167 125 188 364 668 1,166
(892) (936) (1,122) (1,570) (2,097) (3,356)
1,921 2,239 3,093 3,380 4,049 6,430
1,921 2,239 3,093 … … 6,779
… … … … … (349)
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
1,978 3,305 2,652 3,087 3,088 18,011
1,400 1,450 1,610 1,889 2,315 6,797
… … … 865 1,313 6,243
… … … … … …
578 1,855 1,042 333 (540) 4,971
(1,014) 751 (769) (395) 1,398 (720)
357 2,151 883 2,131 4,322 10,199
(357) (2,151) (883) (2,131) (4,322) (10,199)
… … … … … …
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13,343 15,593 17,631 18,594 18,752 23,135
12,218 14,361 15,592 16,282 16,057 18,502
12,218 14,361 15,592 16,282 16,057 18,502
– – – – – –
679 822 1,688 2,040 2,443 4,395
446 409 351 272 252 239
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
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… … … 219.8 2,612.3 572.0
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
52.2 50.8 45.8 44.2 44.3 41.9
4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1
employed; * = provisional, preliminary, estimate, budget figure; – = magnitude equals zero; $ = United States dollars; cif = cost, insuranc
gross national income; IMF = International Monetary Fund; kg = kilogram; km² = square kilometer; kWh = kilowatt-hour; L = liter; MJ = meg
ulate matter; PPP = purchasing power parity; SDRs = special drawing rights; t = metric ton.
pply.
lidated under the indicator transportation and communication.
sus. Unemployment rate is population at 15 years of age and above.
0, the GDP data are based on the reevaluated scale.
ties.
lidated under transportation and communication.
se (COICOP) 1999. For 2020 onward, figures are based on COICOP 2018.
mercial banks.
eposit rates provided by the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Company. Starting 2011, data were provided by the State Bank of Viet Nam.
finance from the Ministry of Finance (MOF), was presented using the GFS1986 standard. Starting in the 54th edition of the Key Indicators
MOF submitted its 2003-2019 government finance data following GFS2014 standard. The MOF is currently working with IMF to convert its
nward, data are based on the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (sixth edition).
sed in thousand metric tons (t), using a conversion factor of 1 kt = 1000 metric tons.
fluoride.
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nication, 5 June 2024.
Organization of the United Nations. FAOSTAT Database. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data (accessed 30 June 2024).
ank estimates using data from the World Bank's International Debt Statistics. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/international-debt-sta
024).
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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17,593 19,349 | 120,252 134,867 150,902 167,649
86,356 100,324 | 123,052 155,921 178,377 201,054
102,920 115,351 | 140,926 174,197 190,384 206,014
21,528 24,291 | 65,338 81,619 93,501 105,895
6,443 7,154 | 44,172 52,838 59,088 67,656
41,279 47,042 | 60,011 71,676 84,016 96,447
38,261 42,780 | 79,926 94,551 108,056 125,500
18,946 21,276 | 28,217 34,087 39,632 57,232
9,986 13,053 | 19,409 22,514 25,893 29,097
24,923 29,087 | 19,316 22,047 25,707 30,479
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72% 62% 54% 64% 63% 66%
86% 73% 60% 67% 59% 64%
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1,923,749 2,027,591 | 2,739,843 2,915,554 3,076,042 3,246,870
1,405,404 1,442,775 | 1,885,502 1,982,891 2,090,565 2,206,099
1,298,368 1,327,608 | 1,601,016 1,686,190 1,768,645 1,860,614
107,036 115,168 | 284,486 296,701 321,920 345,485
668,774 697,614 | 1,016,457 972,410 998,061 1,057,070
584,225 635,201 | 963,320 917,334 938,800 993,720
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
84,549 62,413 | 53,136 55,076 59,261 63,351
… … … … … …
1,219,803 1,355,225 | 1,484,333 1,641,583 1,888,500 2,225,003
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
1,426,886 1,521,982 | 1,638,477 1,715,938 1,907,910 2,287,942
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
56,654 53,959 | (7,972) 34,608 6,826 46,640
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1,144.8 1,160.0 | 1,689.6 1,958.1 2,192.6 2,369.2
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88.2 90.4 95.4 95.9 98.9 99.5
105.9 105.7 103.6 107.6 105.6 103.9
104.2 105.7 110.4 123.2 117.1 114.2
… … … … … …
113.2 111.3 111.7 112.0 110.7 107.0
122.9 108.3 109.6 118.0 108.6 106.4
138.1 111.7 113.1 131.3 109.3 103.8
115.9 106.8 108.7 113.0 107.7 104.1
109.6 109.5 104.6 108.9 110.7 107.5
117.3 102.9 115.3 119.3 110.5 106.8
108.4 109.2 107.0 106.6 107.0 104.3
114.9 108.6 102.6 102.8 103.3 125.2
113.7 98.3 113.0 114.8 107.0 103.5
… … 96.1 96.2 99.4 99.8
104.0 107.3 104.2 105.5 106.8 103.7
105.6 107.1 106.6 106.5 112.5 123.2
… … … … … …
116.5 111.7 107.8 108.9 109.2 105.4
82.7 88.8 100.0 118.4 122.5 128.9
84.0 89.2 100.0 121.4 132.4 137.8
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3.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.2 1.3
13.3 10.2 11.1 13.7 10.1 7.3
13.5 10.4 11.5 13.6 11.3 8.7
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
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… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
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(10,823) (6,608) (4,276) 233 9,267 7,744 |
(12,783) (7,607) (5,136) (450) 8,714 8,713 |
62,685 57,096 72,237 96,906 114,529 132,032 |
(75,468) (64,703) (77,373) (97,356) (105,815) -123,319 |
(950) (2,421) (2,461) (3,168) (1,430) -3,110 |
7,006 5,766 7,460 8,691 9,620 10,710 |
(7,956) (8,187) (9,921) (11,859) (11,050) -13,820 |
(4,401) (3,028) (4,564) (4,834) (6,229) -7,336 |
1,357 753 456 395 295 281 |
(5,758) (3,781) (5,020) (5,229) (6,524) -7,617 |
7,311 6,448 7,885 8,685 8,212 9,477 |
7,715 6,801 8,222 9,213 8,667 10,027 |
(404) (353) (337) (528) (455) -550 |
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
12,341 6,755 6,201 6,490 8,729 -283 |
9,279 6,900 7,100 6,569 7,168 6,944 |
(578) (71) 2,370 1,460 1,990 1,460 |
… … … … … …
3,640 (74) (3,269) (1,539) (429) -8,687 |
(1,045) (9,022) (3,690) (5,574) (6,129) -6,904 |
473 (8,875) (1,765) 1,149 11,867 557 |
(473) 8,875 1,765 (1,149) (11,867) -557 |
… … … … … …
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26,498 32,773 45,022 54,317 62,250 66,249
22,099 27,413 37,560 43,040 49,416 53,595
22,099 27,381 32,805 37,062 40,485 43,549
– 31 4,755 5,978 8,932 10,047
4,204 4,783 6,932 10,781 12,350 12,169
195 578 529 496 484 485
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353.7 1,814.6 988.0 … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … 1.6 2.0 2.5 0.8
39.3 37.0 34.6 36.3 37.9 37.4
4.1 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9
al (sixth edition).
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sed 30 June 2024).
June 2024).
bank.org/source/international-debt-statistics#
d 30 June 2024).
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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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184,870 203,273 221,553 238,919 258,756 281,613
214,365 232,142 251,571 276,885 305,144 338,245
222,113 233,942 253,298 270,030 281,504 301,096
115,841 125,604 134,933 145,196 156,322 168,261
74,548 80,680 87,631 95,162 104,124 114,498
108,014 116,121 125,384 135,090 150,631 165,981
145,123 165,180 187,401 215,562 245,998 281,431
66,861 73,731 98,718 137,035 157,131 172,751
32,170 35,056 38,360 43,033 47,357 52,097
34,540 37,511 41,539 45,309 48,996 53,496
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69% 71% 71% 79% 82% 82%
65% 70% 69% 77% 78% 76%
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#
3,455,392 3,696,826 3,944,144 4,217,875 4,532,739 4,866,316
2,330,719 2,532,216 2,685,583 2,872,656 3,061,596 3,269,611
1,977,461 2,151,280 2,290,037 2,454,920 2,624,309 2,808,536
353,258 380,936 395,546 417,736 437,286 461,075
1,152,974 1,263,995 1,388,647 1,530,910 1,653,605 1,777,370
1,085,937 1,192,359 1,311,595 1,449,312 1,568,735 1,689,199
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
67,038 71,636 77,052 81,598 84,870 88,172
… … … … … …
2,504,913 2,852,242 3,166,102 3,712,366 4,167,255 4,427,126
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
2,595,318 3,003,390 3,342,662 3,951,330 4,329,537 4,539,710
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
62,103 51,763 46,474 53,273 (20,179) (68,081)
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2,559.2 2,596.0 2,757.3 2,983.5 3,250.5 3,464.9
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99.6 100.3 99.3 99.4 99.3 99.3 |
102.4 101.6 101.5 100.9 101.3 101.8 |
110.2 106.5 106.3 109.1 106.3 105.7 |
… … … … … …
104.0 102.9 102.2 102.1 102.4 102.7 |
104.7 100.7 103.0 103.0 104.2 103.8 |
103.4 101.1 102.7 98.9 104.1 104.8 |
104.5 102.5 102.4 102.2 101.9 102.3 |
105.0 104.0 102.0 101.1 102.7 103.0 |
103.8 98.4 101.5 103.3 105.1 104.5 |
103.3 103.3 101.9 101.3 102.4 102.2 |
135.4 100.6 127.5 132.7 104.1 104.1 |
101.4 89.2 94.0 106.9 105.0 99.0 |
99.9 100.4 99.7 99.9 98.2 97.1 |
103.8 102.7 102.6 101.5 103.6 103.8 |
104.4 107.5 111.2 108.8 107.7 109.4 |
… … … … … …
103.2 103.5 102.6 102.1 102.6 102.5 |
133.1 132.4 131.5 135.2 139.4 141.2
142.9 140.4 143.0 149.2 154.6 158.4
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0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
6.4 5.6 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.8
7.2 6.3 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.3
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
_x000D_ INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
#
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
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8,617 (1,643) 878 (1,627) 6,933 12,475
12,126 7,182 10,876 10,646 16,182 20,972
150,217 162,017 176,581 215,119 243,697 264,267
138,091 154,835 165,705 204,473 227,515 243,295
(3,950) (4,123) (3,839) (3,806) (2,288) (945)
11,050 12,580 13,961 14,878 18,060 20,422
15,000 16,703 17,800 18,684 20,348 21,367
(8,844) (12,203) (14,144) (16,994) (15,818) (16,795)
323 399 650 745 1,615 2,237
9,167 12,602 14,794 17,739 17,433 19,032
9,285 7,501 7,985 8,528 8,857 9,243
10,022 8,586 9,125 10,031 10,869 11,609
737 1,085 1,140 1,503 2,012 2,366
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
5,571 967 10,726 19,691 8,466 18,971
8,050 10,700 11,600 13,620 14,902 15,670
93 (65) 228 1,819 3,021 2,998
… … … … … …
(2,572) (9,668) (1,102) 4,252 (9,457) 303
(5,813) (5,356) (3,214) (5,520) (9,368) (8,192)
8,375 (6,032) 8,390 12,544 6,031 23,254
(8,375) 6,032 (8,390) (12,544) (6,031) (23,254)
… … … … … …
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#
74,734 81,825 90,484 109,893 112,622 122,496
60,674 69,398 77,341 87,547 92,599 97,663
46,373 49,206 51,487 56,220 56,619 55,824
14,301 20,192 25,854 31,327 35,980 41,839
13,604 11,991 12,720 21,898 19,585 24,397
456 436 423 448 438 435
… … … … … 359
… … … … … 5
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… … … … … 2.3
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
36.7 27.8 26.8 28.3 24.3 20.4
4.1 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.1
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#
2020 2021 2022 2023
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291,248 305,437 332,137 354,381
357,697 401,678 456,074 501,319
308,691 309,642 332,727 364,119
181,369 190,424 203,506 219,873
94,340 78,706 105,242 123,147
175,492 184,763 192,711 209,522
309,032 328,757 359,276 400,966
194,415 275,350 255,459 265,757
51,401 47,262 55,561 64,316
51,053 47,823 59,559 69,142
6.0
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#
4.0
10.0
8.0
Đơn vị tính %
5,005,756 5,133,589 5,550,617 5,830,725 6.0
3,286,000 3,368,418 3,607,299 3,734,237
2,819,208 2,880,398 3,101,612 3,210,447 4.0
466,792 488,021 505,687 523,790
1,850,454 1,911,196 2,014,456 2,096,854 2.0
1,758,456 1,807,701 1,909,294 1,996,739
… … … … 0.0
1 2 3 4 5
… … … …
91,998 103,495 105,162 100,115
… … … …
4,606,983 5,289,081 5,501,514 5,361,851 Agricu
… … … … Nhận xét
… … … …
4,688,784 5,469,536 5,536,661 5,297,038
… … … … - Biểu đồ thể hiện tăng trưởng GDP
… … … … công nghiệp (Industry), và dịch vụ (S
(48,898) 34,429 (35,992) (65,179) - Nhìn vào biểu đồ 1, ta thấy đường
- Trong ba khu vực, dịch vụ và công
hầu hết các năm.
5,054,653 5,099,160 5,586,608 5,895,904
- Nhìn vào biểu đồ 2,3, 4, ta thấy đư
2.44% 0.88% 9.56% 5.54% nghiệp có độ dốc lớn nhất, đường x
- Thu nhập nhóm ngành công nghiệ
0.4 2.2 7.7 3.5 nhóm ngành công nghiệp với giá trị
đặc biệt tăng mạnh vào các năm nh
1.2 4.5 3.6 3.6 - Ngành dịch vụ (Services) có mức t
4.1 3.3 5.4 4.1 8%.
4.1 14.8 4.0 -2.5 - Ngành nông nghiệp (Agriculture) c
năm.
3.3 16.7 1.2 -4.3 Hai sự kiện ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọn
- Khủng hoảng bắt đầu từ thị trường
mại quốc tế, sản xuất và việc làm. G
2,567,421 2,792,006 3,109,842 3,267,071 (~5.3%). Ngành công nghiệp chịu ản
xuống rõ rệt trong 2008–2009. Ngàn
2,655,243 2,766,611 3,131,486 … đỡ. Nông nghiệp ít chịu tác động hơ
2,779,666 2,961,780 3,464,286 … - Dịch COVID-19 bùng phát cuối 201
xuất, du lịch đình trệ, tiêu dùng giảm
(343,888) (434,227) (463,435) …
động nặng nề nhất, do giãn cách xã
219,464 239,058 130,635 … mạnh năm 2020. Ngành công nghiệ
hồi nhanh ở một số lĩnh vực. Mặc dù
vực nông nghiệp vẫn duy trì được m
thế mạnh về sản xuất nông nghiệp v
34.6 34.9 36.3 …
33.0 32.6 32.8 …
31.9 32.9 32.6 …
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3,551.9 3,720.2 4,123.8 4,284.5
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99.4 99.2 99.6 99.2
98.8 99.1 103.1 102.5
104.1 101.9 101.7 107.4
… … … …
102.9 101.5 102.4 104.6
102.7 101.8 103.4 102.0
109.4 100.2 103.7 103.1
101.8 101.7 102.4 103.4
99.8 100.6 101.2 101.7
102.4 103.7 103.3 101.9
101.5 100.6 100.9 100.8
102.2 100.2 100.4 100.3
89.3 109.9 111.0 98.3
98.3 99.0 99.7 99.2
96.9 97.6 106.2 100.9
102.6 100.8 99.9 105.9
… … … …
101.8 100.5 102.2 104.7
140.3 144.4 150.5 149.2
160.7 165.3 172.0 175.3
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0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2
6.2 5.0 7.2 5.4
6.8 5.5 6.6 6.9
1,479,361.0 … … …
1,199,741.0 … … …
386,146.0 … … …
115,150.0 … … …
270,996.0 … … …
… … … …
… … … …
175,060.0 … … …
559,897.0 … … …
78,638.0 … … …
… … … …
… … … …
4,808.0 … … …
274,812.0 … … …
1,131,720.0 … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
106,466.0 … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
1,025,254.0 … … …
347,641.0 … … …
347,641.0 … … …
575,060.0 … … …
575,060.0 … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
1,706,780.0 … … …
-227,419.0 … … …
-120,953.0 … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
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… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
18.4 … … …
14.9 … … …
1.4 … … …
3.4 … … …
21.2 … … …
-2.8 … … …
-1.5 … … …
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15,060 (8,150) 1,404 25,090
30,708 15,672 29,400 43,963
282,629 336,167 371,715 354,671
251,921 320,495 342,315 310,708
(10,287) (15,395) (13,903) (9,465)
7,600 5,262 13,526 19,594
17,887 20,657 27,429 29,059
(14,817) (18,749) (19,728) (22,463)
1,428 982 2,321 4,551
16,245 19,731 22,049 27,014
9,456 10,322 5,635 13,055
11,427 13,568 12,287 16,112
1,971 3,246 6,652 3,057
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
8,485 30,837 9,470 (2,842)
15,420 15,283 15,226 20,050
(1,256) 281 1,512 (1,189)
… … … …
(5,679) 15,273 (7,268) (21,703)
(6,913) (8,398) (33,619) (16,640)
16,632 14,290 (22,745) 5,608
(16,632) (14,290) 22,745 (5,608)
… … … …
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129,479 139,853 146,627 …
102,422 104,633 106,583 …
55,651 51,375 46,465 …
46,771 53,258 60,118 …
26,604 33,233 38,154 …
453 1,987 1,890 …
355,323 … … …
26,833 … … …
79,619 … … …
… … … …
470,578 … … …
1.14 1.09 … …
0.30 0.28 … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
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… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
0.2 1.4 8.8 …
18.9 24.2 … …
4.0 3.9 … …
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Chi tiêu hộ gia đình (C) là chỉ tiêu quan trọng nhất trong phương pháp chi tiêu, vì:
Luôn chiếm hơn 50% GDP qua các năm.
Ổn định, đóng vai trò nền tảng của cầu nội địa.
Từ bảng số liệu, giai đoạn 2000–2023, tỷ trọng chi tiêu hộ gia đình luôn chiếm từ 53% đến 60% GDP, với mức trung bình ~56–
58%.
Các thành phần còn lại:
Đầu tư (I) chiếm khoảng 30–33%.
Chi tiêu chính phủ (G) dao
_x000D_ động ~9–10%,
INTERNAL. kháisthấp.
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Xuất khẩu (X) chiếm tỷ trọng lớn nhưng không phản ánh chính xác đóng góp ròng vì bị trừ đi bởi nhập khẩu (M).
#
Việt Nam là quốc gia đông dân (~100 triệu người) → quy mô tiêu dùng nội địa rất lớn.
Chi tiêu hộ gia đình (C) là chỉ tiêu quan trọng nhất trong phương pháp chi tiêu, vì:
Luôn chiếm hơn 50% GDP qua các năm.
Ổn định, đóng vai trò nền tảng của cầu nội địa.
Từ bảng số liệu, giai đoạn 2000–2023, tỷ trọng chi tiêu hộ gia đình luôn chiếm từ 53% đến 60% GDP, với mức trung bình ~56–
58%.
Các thành phần còn lại:
Đầu tư (I) chiếm khoảng 30–33%.
Chi tiêu chính phủ (G) dao động ~9–10%, khá thấp.
Xuất khẩu (X) chiếm tỷ trọng lớn nhưng không phản ánh chính xác đóng góp ròng vì bị trừ đi bởi nhập khẩu (M).
Việt Nam là quốc gia đông dân (~100 triệu người) → quy mô tiêu dùng nội địa rất lớn.
Quá trình đô thị hóa, tăng thu nhập, tầng lớp trung lưu mở rộng → làm cho tiêu dùng hộ gia đình trở thành động lực tăng trưởng
chính.
Trong bối cảnh khủng hoảng toàn cầu hay suy giảm xuất khẩu, C vẫn giữ ổn định, giữ vai trò trụ đỡ cho GDP.
=> Chi tiêu hộ gia đình (C) là yếu tố quyết định và quan trọng nhất trong tăng trưởng GDP theo phương pháp chi tiêu của Việt
Nam, thể hiện vai trò trung tâm của tiêu dùng nội địa trong thúc đẩy kinh tế.
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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Axis Title
hể hiện tăng trưởng GDP (%) của Việt Nam theo từng năm, cùng với đóng góp từ ba nhóm ngành chính: nông nghiệp (Agriculture),
ệp (Industry), và dịch vụ (Services).
biểu đồ 1, ta thấy đường xu hướng GDP qua các năm (từ 2000-2023) có xu hướng giảm nhẹ và dài hạn
khu vực, dịch vụ và công nghiệp đóng góp tỷ trọng lớn hơn nông nghiệp, và cũng có mức tăng trưởng cao hơn nông nghiệp trong
ác năm.
biểu đồ 2,3, 4, ta thấy đường xu hướng của từng nhóm ngành đều có xu hướng giảm, trong đó, đường xu hướng ngành công
độ dốc lớn nhất, đường xu hướng của ngành nông nghiệp có độ dốc nhỏ nhất
p nhóm ngành công nghiệp có đóng góp nhiều nhất trong GDP (7.4%, trong đó ngành sản xuất chế tạo đóng góp nhiều nhất trong
nh công nghiệp với giá trị bình quân là 588.048 tỷ đồng). Đồng thời đây là nhóm có tốc độ tăng trưởng cao nhất và biến động rõ rệt,
ng mạnh vào các năm như 2004, 2007, 2018.
ch vụ (Services) có mức tăng trưởng ổn định và tương đối cao so với các ngành khác, mức tăng có xu hướng dao động quanh 6–
ông nghiệp (Agriculture) có xu hương tăng trưởng thấp hơn rõ rệt so với hai ngành còn lại, dao động quanh mức 2–4% qua các
n ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng đến GDP Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2000 - 2023 vào năm 2007 và năm 2019
oảng bắt đầu từ thị trường tài chính Mỹ năm 2007, lan rộng toàn cầu năm 2008, ảnh hưởng mạnh đến hoạt động đầu tư, thương
ế, sản xuất và việc làm. GDP Việt Nam giảm rõ rệt từ 2007 (trên 8%) xuống còn khoảng 6.2% năm 2008 và tiếp tục giảm năm 2009
Ngành công nghiệp chịu ảnh hưởng mạnh nhất, do xuất khẩu sụt giảm, đơn hàng sản xuất giảm sút. Đường biểu đồ công nghiệp đi
ệt trong 2008–2009. Ngành dịch vụ cũng bị chững lại, nhưng không giảm mạnh như công nghiệp, do tiêu dùng nội địa vẫn còn lực
nghiệp ít chịu tác động hơn, giữ mức tăng trưởng ổn định nhờ ít liên kết trực tiếp với thị trường tài chính toàn cầu.
VID-19 bùng phát cuối 2019, ảnh hưởng rõ từ 2020, với các đợt phong tỏa, giãn cách, chuỗi cung ứng bị đứt gãy. Nội địa hóa sản
ch đình trệ, tiêu dùng giảm. GDP tụt xuống mức rất thấp năm 2020 (~2.9%), mức thấp nhất trong hơn 20 năm. Ngành dịch vụ bị tác
g nề nhất, do giãn cách xã hội làm tê liệt các ngành lưu trú, ăn uống, vận tải và du lịch. Biểu đồ cho thấy tăng trưởng dịch vụ giảm
m 2020. Ngành công nghiệp có giảm nhưng vẫn giữ được mức dương, nhờ duy trì sản xuất hàng hóa thiết yếu và xuất khẩu phục
ở một số lĩnh vực. Mặc dù tốc độ tăng trưởng không cao và ít biến động, nhưng trong các giai đoạn khủng hoảng hay đại dịch, khu
nghiệp vẫn duy trì được mức tăng trưởng ổn định, thể hiện vai trò là trụ đỡ quan trọng của nền kinh tế Việt Nam – một quốc gia có
về sản xuất nông nghiệp và được xem là vựa lúa của khu vực.
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#
c trung bình ~56–
_x000D_ INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
M).
#
c trung bình ~56–
M).
.
chi tiêu của Việt
8.0
7.0
6.0
Đơn vị tính %
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Năm
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#
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Năm
GDP Agriculture
10.0
Linear ( GDP)
8.0
Đơn vị tính %
6.0
g nghiệp (Agriculture),
4.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
Nă
GDP Ser
_x000D_ INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
#
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
Nă
GDP Ser
_x000D_ INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
#
g nghiệp trong GDP thực giai đoạn 2000 - 2023
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Năm
_x000D_ INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
#
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Năm
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Năm
khu vực công nghiệp trong GDP thực giai đoạn 2000 - 2023
06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Năm
_x000D_ INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
#
06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Năm
_x000D_ INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
#
Nông nghiệp
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing
Công nghiệp
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturingc
Electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning
supply; water supply;
sewerage, waste management, and
remediation activities
Construction
Dịch vụ
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles
Transportation and storaged