Federal B NK
Federal B NK
Federal Bank
BSE SENSEX
82,055
S&P CNX
25,044
CMP: INR209 TP: INR250 (+19%) Buy
Laying groundwork for steady improvement in RoA
Estimate 20% earnings CAGR over FY25-28 and FY28-exit RoA of 1.5%
Federal Bank (FB) has demonstrated strong business growth and is rebalancing
its portfolio toward medium- and high-yielding segments like LAP, used CVs,
gold loans, and credit cards to drive profitability. We estimate loan growth to
Bloomberg FB IN
sustain at ~17% CAGR over FY25-28E while bank maintains strong asset quality.
Equity Shares (m) 2455
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 513.8 / 6 Deposit growth is expected to accelerate to a 15.1% CAGR over FY25-28,
52-Week Range (INR) 217 / 172 supported by a CA-led CASA push, a stronger NR franchise, and the realignment
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 2/1/13 of its branch network. We estimate CASA share to improve to 34-35% by FY28E.
12M Avg Val (INR M) 2089 NIMs may face near-term pressure due to high funding costs, muted CASA
Free float (%) 100.0
growth, and T+1 repricing of a 51% repo-linked book; however, FB targets
medium-term NIMs of 3.5% by FY28.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar FY25 FY26E FY27E C/I ratio is estimated to stay high at 53-55% in the near term due to investments
NII 94.7 103.2 125.4 in Neo, Project Udaan, and tech upgrades, though it is expected to improve with
OP 61.0 67.3 85.9 scale and productivity gains.
NP 40.5 42.4 53.7 Asset quality remains robust, with GNPA/NNPA at 1.84%/0.44% in FY25 and a
NIM (%) 3.2 3.1 3.2
healthy PCR of >75%. Credit costs are likely to remain contained at ~35-45bp.
EPS (INR) 16.6 17.4 22.0
EPS Gr. (%) 1.8 4.7 26.5
Under new CEO Mr. KVS Manian, FB is addressing its gaps and pivoting toward
BV/Sh. (INR) 137 150 171 sustainable, return-driven growth across businesses and geographies. We
ABV/Sh. (INR) 131 143 163 estimate RoA/RoE at 1.4%/15.6% by FY28E, driven by better margins, asset mix
Ratios shift, and improved cost efficiency. The C/I ratio is likely to fall to ~48.8%.
ROA (%) 1.2 1.1 1.2 FB remains one of our preferred BUY-rated ideas among mid-size private banks
ROE (%) 13.0 12.1 13.7
with a TP of INR250 (1.5x FY27E ABV).
Valuations
P/E(X) 12.6 12.0 9.5 Targeting balanced growth with improving asset mix
P/BV (X) 1.5 1.4 1.2
FB is strategically shifting toward profitable growth by reshaping its asset mix
to favor medium- and high-yield segments while preserving asset quality. In
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On Mar-25 Dec-24 Mar-24 FY25, it reported modest credit growth of 12% as the bank deliberately slowed
Promoter 0.0 0.0 0.0 non-friendly corporate loan growth, while other segments like LAP, CV/CE, and
DII 48.6 48.4 44.9 gold loans continued to grow at a healthy pace. Although gold loan growth
FII 27.0 27.1 29.3 slowed in 4Q due to regulatory factors, recent LTV relaxations by the RBI
Others 24.4 24.5 25.8
should support recovery. FB remains cautious on unsecured credit but expects
FII Includes depository receipts
a gradual re-entry as conditions improve. We estimate FB to deliver ~17% loan
Stock performance (one-year) CAGR over FY25-28E.
Federal Bank Focusing on CA to boost deposit growth and ease funding costs
Nifty - Rebased FB is strengthening its deposit franchise by accelerating CA deposit growth.
220
Overall deposit growth was moderate at 12% YoY in FY25, led by 15.6% CASA
205 growth, though the CASA ratio remained modest at ~30.2%. While the bank
190 has underperformed peers in CA deposits, it is garnering deposits through
175
innovative offerings and increased focus on SME/mid-corporate customers.
We note that FB’s CA mix at 7% is relatively smaller than the 12-16% range for
160 other top 5 private banks despite FB having ~31% mix of non-retail loans. FB is
Jun-24
Jun-25
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
CASA ratio in the medium term. Additionally, the bank has consciously pruned non-
LCR-friendly wholesale deposits, resulting in a healthy LCR of 142% as of FY25 (128%
in FY24). With this improved liquidity profile, deposits are expected to grow steadily
at a 15% CAGR over FY25-28, with CASA growth being faster at 20% over the same
period.
RoA recovery to begin in FY27E; estimate sharp uptick to 1.5% by exit FY28E
FB, as a franchisee, has operated with a conservative risk profile and that partly is
the reason why the bank has operated in a lower return ratio profile. Over the past
five years, the bank’s RoA has been in the range of 0.9-1.2%, which is lower than
that of its industry peers. FB has set an aspiration to grow and realign its product
portfolio toward mid- and high-yielding assets while being conscious of its asset
quality metrics, which should help to keep the credit cost contained. As operating
leverage kicks in and the C/I ratio sees a calibrated decline, fee income will remain
strong amid cross-selling and better growth in high-yielding assets. These measures
collectively set the stage for a gradual RoA improvement for FB, pointing to a
credible pathway toward ~1.4% RoA by FY28E (exit RoA of 1.5%).
24 June 2025 2
Federal Bank
Asset quality stable; factoring in slight rise in credit cost as mix of high-
yielding assets increase
FB has consistently maintained strong asset quality, with GNPA/NNPA improving to
1.84%/0.44% in FY25, driven by controlled slippages, strong recoveries, and prudent
provisioning. Robust underwriting, especially in mid-corporate and SME segments,
underpins this performance. Even in higher-yielding areas like microfinance and
credit cards, the bank has remained cautious and has made accelerated provisions,
prioritizing quality over growth. The restructured book has declined to 0.6%, and
PCR has improved to >75%, strengthening the balance sheet. With a disciplined
credit culture, selective unsecured exposure and proactive risk framework, FB is well
positioned to manage asset quality across cycles. We estimate credit cost to stay
contained or increase slightly to ~50bp by FY28E as the bank consciously increases
the mix of high-yielding loans. We thus estimate GNPA/NNPA to improve further to
1.7%/0.4% by FY28E.
24 June 2025 3
Federal Bank
Loan mix Exhibit 1: Estimate healthy ~17% loan CAGR over FY25-28E
1,744
2,094
2,348
2,717
3,184
3,758
FY21 1,319
2% Corporate
19%
13% 3% MFI
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E
Source: MOFSL, Company
FY23
FY24
FY25
AXSB
IIB
IDFCFB
KMB
YES
HDFCB
FB
24 June 2025 4
Federal Bank
Exhibit 4: Estimate deposit CAGR at ~15.1% over FY25-28E Exhibit 5: CD ratio stable at 83%; LCR increased to 142%
Deposits (INRb) Growth - YoY (%) CD Ratio (%) LCR Ratio (%)
145.2
142.0
18
17
16
15
128.1
13
127.8
14
125.0
12
124.8
119.9
118.5
115.2
112.6
5
2,134 83.5 81.8 82.5 82.8 83.1 82.9 83.0 85.6 86.5 82.8
1,726 1,817 2,525 2,836 3,225 3,712 4,321
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
3QFY25
4QFY25
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E
24 June 2025 5
Federal Bank
CA mix (%)
CA mix (%) is lower for FB at
19.0%
7.2% vs. 10% and above for 16.6% 16.2%
most of the peers 14.5% 14.2%
11.6%
9.9%
7.2%
24 June 2025 6
Federal Bank
FB’s NIMs are likely to remain under pressure for the near term due to rising
funding costs, muted CASA growth, and yield compression from the
transmission of repo rate cuts. Its high repo-linked book (51%) and faster T+1
repricing model (vs peers) add to the pressure.
However, FB is repositioning for medium-term margin expansion, targeting NIM
of 3.5% by FY28. It is focusing on high-yield segments like used CVs, affordable
housing, LAP, tractor financing, SME & mid-corporate lending and credit cards,
while reducing exposure to low-margin mortgages, corporates & NBFCs.
The bank has exited select non-remunerative corporate loans, replacing them
with better-yielding assets. With aligned repricing, a shift in asset mix, and
improving liabilities mix, FB aims to structurally enhance margins and improve
its margin profile. We estimate margin to improve to 3.45% by FY28E.
Exhibit 9: Estimate NIMs to bottom out in FY26E; recover thereafter to 3.45% by FY28E
NIM (%)
NIMs to see near-term
pressure in FY26E and
improve toward 3.45% in
FY28E
3.45
3.37
3.16 3.2 3.20 3.22 3.21
3.07
24 June 2025 7
Federal Bank
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E
Source: MOFSL, Company
24 June 2025 8
Federal Bank
FB, as a franchisee, has operated with a conservative risk profile and that is
partly the reason why the bank has operated in a lower return ratio profile. Over
the past five years, the bank’s RoA has been around 0.9-1.2%, which is lower
than that of its industry peers.
The bank has set an aspiration to grow and realign its product portfolio toward
mid- and high-yielding assets while being conscious about the asset quality
metrics, which should help to keep the credit cost contained.
As operating leverage kicks in and the C/I ratio sees a calibrated decline, fee
income shall remain strong amid cross-selling and better growth in high-yielding
assets.
These measures collectively set the stage for a gradual RoA improvement for FB,
pointing to a credible pathway toward ~1.4% RoA by FY28E (exit RoA of 1.5%).
Exhibit 11: Return ratios to improve from FY27E; estimate 1.5% exit RoA in FY28E
RoA (%) RoE (%)
15.6
14.9
14.7
13.7
13.0
12.1
11.1
10.8
10.4
0.91
0.83
0.89
1.25
1.31
1.23
1.13
1.24
1.40
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 12: RoA to recover on the back of NIMs, healthy fee and controlled cost and provisions
Y/E March FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E
Net Interest Income 2.90 2.82 3.01 2.92 2.88 2.75 2.89 3.15
Non-Interest income 1.03 0.99 0.97 1.08 1.16 1.18 1.21 1.23
Total Income 3.92 3.81 3.97 4.00 4.04 3.93 4.10 4.38
Operating Expenses 1.93 2.03 1.98 2.18 2.18 2.14 2.12 2.14
Operating Profits 1.99 1.78 1.99 1.82 1.86 1.79 1.98 2.24
Core Operating Profits 1.66 1.64 1.98 1.72 1.76 1.68 1.87 2.13
Provisions 0.87 0.58 0.31 0.07 0.22 0.28 0.32 0.37
PBT 1.12 1.20 1.68 1.75 1.63 1.51 1.66 1.87
Tax 0.29 0.31 0.43 0.44 0.40 0.38 0.42 0.47
RoA 0.83 0.89 1.25 1.31 1.23 1.13 1.24 1.40
Leverage (x) 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.2 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.2
RoE 10.4 10.8 14.9 14.7 13.0 12.1 13.7 15.6
Source: MOFSL, Company
24 June 2025 9
Federal Bank
The bank has consistently maintained strong asset quality, with GNPA/NNPA
improving to 1.84%/0.44% in FY25, driven by controlled slippages, strong
recoveries, and prudent provisioning. Robust underwriting, especially in mid-
corporate and SME segments, underpins this performance.
Even in higher-yielding areas like microfinance and credit cards, the bank has
remained cautious and made accelerated provisions, prioritizing quality over
growth. The restructured book has declined to 0.6%, and PCR has improved to
>75%, strengthening its balance sheet.
With a disciplined credit culture, selective unsecured exposure and proactive
risk framework, FB is well positioned to manage asset quality across cycles.
We estimate credit costs to stay contained or increase slightly to ~50bp by
FY28E as the bank consciously increases the mix of high-yielding loans. We thus
estimate GNPA/NNPA to improve further to 1.7%/0.4% by FY28E.
1.3 1.2
1.0 0.8 0.7
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
2.8 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 14: Estimate credit cost to remain stable at 35-45bp over FY25-28E
We estimate credit cost to Slippage ratio (calc,%) Credit cost (calc,%)
remain stable at 35-45bp 1.31
over FY25-28E 1.01
0.88
0.91
1.65 1.51 1.36 1.08 0.82 1.00 1.00 0.94
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E
24 June 2025 10
Federal Bank
Exhibit 15: One-year forward P/B ratio Exhibit 16: One-year forward P/E ratio
P/B (x) Avg (x) Max (x) P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x)
Min (x) +1SD -1SD Min (x) +1SD -1SD
2.3
28.0
1.9
1.8 22.5
21.0
1.4 1.3 15.5
1.3 1.2 14.0 11.3 10.7
7.0
0.8 0.9 7.0
5.1
0.3 0.5 0.0
Jun-15
Jun-20
Jun-25
Jun-15
Jun-20
Jun-25
Sep-16
Dec-17
Mar-19
Sep-21
Dec-22
Mar-24
Sep-16
Dec-17
Mar-19
Sep-21
Dec-22
Mar-24
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 17: DuPont Analysis: Estimate RoE to improve to 15.6% by FY28E as leverage improves
Y/E March FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E
Interest Income 7.20 6.47 6.98 7.80 8.02 7.52 7.53 7.70
Interest Expense 4.31 3.65 3.98 4.89 5.14 4.78 4.63 4.55
Net Interest Income 2.90 2.82 3.01 2.92 2.88 2.75 2.89 3.15
Core Fee Income 0.70 0.85 0.96 0.99 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12
Trading and others 0.33 0.14 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11
Non-Interest income 1.03 0.99 0.97 1.08 1.16 1.18 1.21 1.23
Total Income 3.92 3.81 3.97 4.00 4.04 3.93 4.10 4.38
Operating Expenses 1.93 2.03 1.98 2.18 2.18 2.14 2.12 2.14
-Employee cost 1.07 1.10 0.90 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
-Others 0.87 0.93 1.08 1.19 1.19 1.15 1.14 1.15
Operating Profits 1.99 1.78 1.99 1.82 1.86 1.79 1.98 2.24
Core Operating Profits 1.66 1.64 1.98 1.72 1.76 1.68 1.87 2.13
Provisions 0.87 0.58 0.31 0.07 0.22 0.28 0.32 0.37
PBT 1.12 1.20 1.68 1.75 1.63 1.51 1.66 1.87
Tax 0.29 0.31 0.43 0.44 0.40 0.38 0.42 0.47
RoA 0.83 0.89 1.25 1.31 1.23 1.13 1.24 1.40
Leverage (x) 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.2 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.2
RoE 10.4 10.8 14.9 14.7 13.0 12.1 13.7 15.6
Source: MOFSL, Company
24 June 2025 11
Federal Bank
Balance Sheet
Y/E March FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E
Share Capital 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Equity Share Capital 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Reserves & Surplus 157.3 183.7 210.8 286.1 329.3 361.5 411.2 477.3
Net Worth 161.2 187.9 215.1 290.9 334.2 366.3 416.1 482.1
Deposits 1,726.4 1,817.0 2,133.9 2,525.3 2,836.5 3,225.1 3,712.1 4,320.8
-growth (%) 13.4 5.2 17.4 18.3 12.3 13.7 15.1 16.4
- CASA Dep 587.1 674.7 701.2 746.5 856.6 1,009.4 1,217.6 1,482.0
-growth (%) 25.5 14.9 3.9 6.5 14.7 17.8 20.6 21.7
Borrowings 90.7 153.9 193.2 180.3 237.3 346.2 408.5 482.1
Other Liabilities & Prov. 35.3 50.6 61.3 86.6 82.1 90.3 103.9 119.4
Total Liabilities 2,013.7 2,209.5 2,603.4 3,083.1 3,490.0 4,028.0 4,640.6 5,404.5
Current Assets 195.9 210.1 176.9 189.6 308.6 325.0 329.6 369.8
Investments 371.9 391.8 489.8 608.6 662.5 788.3 914.5 1,056.2
-growth (%) 3.6 5.4 25.0 24.2 8.9 19.0 16.0 15.5
Loans 1,318.8 1,449.3 1,744.5 2,094.0 2,348.4 2,717.1 3,184.4 3,757.6
-growth (%) 7.9 9.9 20.4 20.0 12.1 15.7 17.2 18.0
Fixed Assets 4.9 6.3 9.3 10.2 14.8 17.3 19.9 22.3
Other Assets 122.2 151.9 182.9 180.7 155.9 180.3 192.2 198.6
Total Assets 2,013.7 2,209.5 2,603.4 3,083.1 3,490.0 4,028.0 4,640.6 5,404.5
Asset Quality
GNPA 46.0 41.4 41.8 45.3 43.8 49.8 57.4 65.9
NNPA 15.7 13.9 13.2 13.8 10.4 12.1 13.8 15.0
Slippages 19.2 18.8 17.2 17.4 18.2 25.3 29.5 32.6
GNPA Ratio (%) 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
NNPA Ratio (%) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Slippage Ratio (%) 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9
Credit Cost (%) 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
PCR (Excl Tech. write off) (%) 65.9 66.3 68.4 69.6 76.2 75.7 76.0 77.3
E: MOFSL Estimates
24 June 2025 12
Federal Bank
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
24 June 2025 13
Federal Bank
NOTES
24 June 2025 14
Federal Bank
24 June 2025 15
Federal Bank
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24 June 2025 16