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05 April 2025 India | Equity Research | Quarterly results preview

Telecom

Q4FY25 preview: Stable mobile revenue growth QoQ, but for two lesser days

Telcos took tariff hikes in Jul’24, which boosted ARPUs in previous two quarters; some residual benefit should show in
Q4FY25E for RJio, but for two lesser days. Subs net add has normalised in mobile, and acceleration may be visible in
FWA, particularly for RJio. Our Q4FY25 estimates point to mobile services revenue dip for Bharti Airtel (down 0.1%
QoQ) and VIL (1.2%), but RJio’s revenue could grow at 2% QoQ. BHL’s revenue (+2.7% QoQ) to benefit from seasonality
in roaming services in Rajasthan circle. Subs add for Bharti could be 3mn, and RJio at 4mn (partly benefitting from
strong net add in FWA); VIL may lose 1mn subs. Bharti India’s reported numbers would include Indus Towers’ complete
consolidation due to the change in company status to subsidiary, from earlier associate.
Tata Communications’ (TCom) data revenue performance may improve at 4% Sanjesh Jain
QoQ/ 9.5% YoY growth while EBITDA margin could dip 5bp QoQ on change in [email protected]
mix towards digital services. Consol. EBITDA to grow 2.4% QoQ. Indus +91 22 6807 7153
Towers’ (Indus) tenancy adds (+10,000) may accelerate with VIL rolling out 4G Mohit Mishra
network but its EBITDA growth may appear optically weak due to a one-off in [email protected]
Aparajita Chakraborty
Q3FY25 on provision reversal.
[email protected]
Tariff hike benefit largely in base; impact of two lesser days
Bharti’s ARPU may decline 1.2% QoQ/ +16% YoY to INR 242 and BHL’s could
rise 0.5% QoQ/ 18.9% YoY to INR 243. RJio’s ARPU may jump 2% QoQ/ 14.1%
YoY to INR 207 – higher vs Bharti, as RJio has some residual benefit of tariff Bharti Airtel (BUY)
hike from long validity customers. VIL’s ARPU could be flattish QoQ/ 11.6%
YoY to INR 163 in Q4FY25E. Subs net add normalised with Bharti’s subs net Vodafone Idea (HOLD)
add estimated at 3mn, and 4mn for RJio while VIL’s subs may dip 1mn. Bharti’s
4G/5G net add should remain stable at 6mn; VIL’s 4G subs may rise by 2mn Tata Communications (BUY)
from initial benefits of network expansion.
Indus Towers (REDUCE)
Bharti’s India EBITDA to benefit from Indus consolidation Reliance Jio Infocomm (UNRATED)
Indus Towers’ accounting has changed to subsidiary, from earlier associate,
effective 19 Nov’24. We see Bharti’s India revenue rising 8.7% QoQ/ 38% YoY Bharti Hexacom (HOLD)
to INR 398bn and its mobile segment may dip 0.1% QoQ/ +19% YoY in
Q4FY25E. India EBITDA should grow 0.1% QoQ (L2L) / 57.5% YoY to INR
240bn. Bharti Africa’s USD revenue to grow 2% QoQ/ 15.7% YoY to USD 1.3bn
and EBITDA to grow 2.7% QoQ/ 17% YoY to USD 605mn. Consol. revenue may
grow 12.1% QoQ to INR 505bn and EBITDA may grow 18.5% QoQ to INR
291bn. Net profit is seen at INR 67.6bn.
Bharti’s enterprise business revenue may dip 5% QoQ due to discontinuation
of commodity business, but negligible impact likely on EBITDA front as
indicated by the company in its Q3FY25 earnings call.

BHL’s EBITDA to grow 34.8% YoY/ 2.7% QoQ to INR 11.8bn

We expect BHL’s revenue to grow 2.7% QoQ/ 23.7% YoY to INR 23bn driven
by an ARPU rise of 0.5% QoQ/ 18.9% YoY to INR 243 while subs could rise
1.1% QoQ to 28mn. BHL’s Q4FY25 has seasonality benefit from higher
roaming customer. EBITDA could grow 2.7%/ 34.8% QoQ/YoY to INR 11.8bn.
Net profit could be seen at INR 3.9bn, up 49.3% QoQ/ 74.9% YoY for Q4FY25E.

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Telecom | Sector Update | 05 April 2025

VIL’s EBITDA to dip 5.2% QoQ to INR 44.7bn

We expect VIL’s revenue to drop 1.2% QoQ/ +3.5% YoY to INR 110bn due to subs
losses, while ARPU may be flattish despite two lesser days. We expect 4G subs to
start growing gradually as network rollout started only from Nov’24.
We expect EBITDA to decline 5.2% QoQ/ +3.1% YoY to INR 44.7bn on dip in revenue,
and operating cost is likely to rise from expansion in network footprint. Net loss is seen
at INR 76bn (nil tax rebate) in Q4FY25E.

RJio’ EBITDA is likely to rise 2.2% QoQ to INR 158bn

RJio’s Q4FY25E revenue is estimated to rise 15.1% YoY/ 2% QoQ to INR 299bn,
benefitting from residual flow through of tariff hike and growth in fixed broadband
(driven by FWA). RJio’s ARPU may grow 1.2% QoQ, as it has a higher mix of subs with
long validity and the tariff hike benefit is staggered over three quarters (vs two
quarters for Bharti). It was empirically evident in previous two tariff hikes as well.
EBITDA may grow 16.2%/ 2.2% YoY/QoQ to INR 158bn; EBITDA margin is likely to be
stable QoQ as RJio has cost inflation on the back of rise in rentals for fibre. Net profit
is seen at INR 65bn, up 21.4%/ 0.1% YoY/QoQ.

Indus’ tenancies to rise 10,000 in Q4FY25E

Rental per tenant is likely to dip 0.3% QoQ to INR 41,302 driven by higher tenancy
increase, but partly offset by rise in loading revenue on 5G rollout. Rental revenue may
rise 0.8% QoQ (+6% YoY) to INR 48.5bn.
We expect EBITDA to decline 1.9% YoY (down 42.6% QoQ) to INR 40bn as Indus had
a provision reversal in Q3FY25 and Q4FY24, which we factor in as nil in Q4FY25E.
However, we see a higher likelihood of remaining INR 5bn recovery from VIL. We
expect net profit to dip 9.2% YoY (down 58% QoQ) to INR 16.8bn.

TCom’s data business revenue to rise 4% QoQ/ 9.5% YoY

In Q4FY25E, we expect voice revenue to dip 5% QoQ and EBITDA margin flattish at
11.8%. We estimate data revenue to rise 4% QoQ/ 9.5% YoY. Data business’ EBITDA
margin to dip 5bp QoQ at 19.1%. Consol. revenue/EBITDA to grow 3.1%/ 2.4% QoQ to
INR 59.8bn/INR 12.1bn. EBITDA margin could dip 13bp QoQ to 20.2%. We estimate
net profit at INR 3.4bn, up 42.2% QoQ on lower ETR.

Subs net add normalised for Bharti/RJio

QoQ YoY
Subscribers (mn) Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Bharti Airtel 352 355 352 357 360 0.8 2.1
Vodafone Idea 213 210 205 200 199 (0.5) (6.7)
RJio 482 490 479 482 486 0.8 0.9
Bharti Hexacom 27 28 27 28 28 1.1 2.1
Total 1,047 1,054 1,035 1,038 1,044 0.6 (0.2)
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Two lesser days to hurt ARPU in Q4FY25; RJio’s ARPU to benefit from residual flow of tariff hike, and BHL
from seasonality
QoQ YoY
ARPU (INR) Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Bharti Airtel 209 211 233 245 242 (1.2) 16.0
Vodafone Idea 146 146 156 163 163 - 11.6
RJio 182 182 195 203 206 1.2 13.2
Bharti Hexacom 204 205 228 241 243 0.5 18.9
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

India | Institutional Equity Research 2

Telecom | Sector Update | 05 April 2025

Voice minutes (industry-wide) may rise 0.4% QoQ/ 0.5% YoY

QoQ YoY
Minutes (mn) Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Bharti Airtel 12,09,564 11,95,080 11,99,795 12,33,306 12,39,472 0.5 2.5
Vodafone Idea 4,02,000 3,85,000 3,65,000 3,60,000 3,63,600 1.0 (9.6)
RJio 14,40,000 14,20,000 14,20,000 14,60,000 14,63,736 0.3 1.6
Bharti Hexacom 90,882 89,426 89,920 94,379 94,850 0.5 4.4
Total 30,51,564 30,00,080 29,84,795 30,53,306 30,66,808 0.4 0.5
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Data subs growth steady for Bharti; VIL to also start growing again with rising network footprint
Data Subscribers QoQ YoY
Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
(mn) change (%) change (%)
Bharti Airtel 261 267 271 278 284 2.2 8.7
Vodafone Idea 137 137 135 134 136 1.5 (0.8)
RJio 482 490 479 482 486 0.8 0.9
Bharti Hexacom 20 20 21 21 21 2.1 8.7
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Data volume (industry-wide) likely to grow 2.2% QoQ/ 15.3 % YoY

Data usage (mn QoQ YoY
Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
MB) change (%) change (%)
Bharti Airtel 1,73,90,877 1,87,88,716 1,93,11,255 2,01,74,386 2,06,23,726 2.2 18.6
Vodafone Idea 60,49,000 61,11,000 59,92,000 58,59,000 59,76,180 2.0 (1.2)
RJio 4,09,00,000 4,41,00,000 4,50,00,000 4,65,00,000 4,75,56,062 2.3 16.3
Bharti Hexacom 14,29,940 15,44,921 15,97,832 16,33,360 16,82,361 3.0 17.7
Total 6,43,39,877 6,89,99,716 7,03,03,255 7,25,33,386 7,41,55,967 2.2 15.3
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Forex movement
QoQ YoY
Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25
change (%) change (%)
Average INR/US 83.1 83.4 83.7 84.4 86.6 (2.6) (4.2)
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

African currencies’ (average) movement against USD

Contribution to QoQ YoY Contribution to QoQ YoY
Country Country
Africa revenue (%) change (%) change (%) Africa revenue (%) change (%) change (%)
Nigeria 38.8 6.1 (17.2) Kenya 6.1 (0.0) 14.0
Uganda 11.6 (0.2) 4.7 Gabon 4.0 (1.4) (3.2)
Zambia 7.0 (4.1) (10.7) Chad 3.2
Tanzania 6.7 2.1 (0.9) Malawi 4.4 0.0 (2.7)
D.R. Congo 10.8 (0.2) (4.9) Rwanda 0.8 (2.4) (9.7)
Niger 3.4 (1.4) (3.2) Madagascar 0.8 (1.1) (3.4)
Congo 1.9 (1.4) (3.2) Seychelles 0.5 (3.3) (5.0)
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

India | Institutional Equity Research 3

Telecom | Sector Update | 05 April 2025

Bharti Airtel (BUY; target price: INR 1,925)

(QoQ change: 9.0%; YoY change: 44.5%)

Q4FY25 estimates
QoQ YoY
INR mn Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Bharti Airtel - India & SA
Financials (INR mn)
Revenue 2,88,339 2,93,241 3,17,221 3,66,339 3,98,043 8.7 38.0
EBITDA 1,52,668 1,55,825 1,72,950 2,40,271 2,40,429 0.1 57.5
EBITDA margin (%) 52.9 53.1 54.5 65.6 60.4 -518bp 746bp

Bharti Airtel - Africa

Financials (USD mn)
Revenue 1,118 1,156 1,214 1,268 1,293 2.0 15.7
EBITDA 517 519 560 589 605 2.7 17.0
EBITDA margin (%) 46.2 44.9 46.1 46.5 46.8 32bp 53bp

Bharti - (Consolidated)
Financials (INR mn)
Revenue 3,75,991 3,85,064 4,14,733 4,51,293 5,05,878 12.1 34.5
EBITDA 1,93,648 1,97,076 2,18,462 2,45,966 2,91,419 18.5 50.5
EBITDA margin (%) 51.5 51.2 52.7 54.5 57.6 310bp 610bp
PAT 20,716 41,599 35,932 1,47,812 67,586 (54.3) 226.2
NPM (%) 5.5 10.8 8.7 32.8 13.4
EPS (INR) 3.8 7.6 6.6 27.1 12.4 (54.3) 226.2
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Bharti Hexacom (HOLD; target price: INR 1,410)

(QoQ change: -2.7%; YoY change: NA)

Q4FY25 estimates
QoQ YoY
INR mn Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Revenue 18,680 19,106 20,976 22,507 23,105 2.7 23.7
EBITDA 8,778 8,758 10,019 11,517 11,832 2.7 34.8
EBITDA margin (%) 47.0 45.8 47.8 51.2 51.2 4bp 422bp
PAT 2,227 5,112 2,531 2,609 3,894 49.3 74.9
NPM (%) 11.9 26.8 12.1 11.6 16.9
EPS (INR) 4.5 10.2 5.1 5.2 7.8 49.3 74.9
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Vodafone Idea (HOLD; target price: INR 8)

(QoQ change: -4.4%; YoY change: -40.7%)

Q4FY25 estimates
QoQ YoY
INR mn Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Revenue 1,06,068 1,05,083 1,09,322 1,11,173 1,09,827 (1.2) 3.5
EBITDA 43,358 42,047 45,498 47,124 44,681 (5.2) 3.1
EBITDA margin (%) 40.9 40.0 41.6 42.4 40.7 -170bp -19bp
PAT (76,746) (64,321) (71,759) (66,093) (76,261)
NPM (%) (72.4) (61.2) (65.6) (59.5) (69.4)
EPS (INR) (2.7) (2.2) (2.5) (2.3) (2.7)
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

India | Institutional Equity Research 4

Telecom | Sector Update | 05 April 2025

Reliance Jio Infocomm (UNRATED)

Q4FY25 estimates
QoQ YoY
INR mn Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Revenue 2,59,590 2,64,780 2,83,380 2,93,070 2,98,796 2.0 15.1
EBITDA 1,36,120 1,39,200 1,50,360 1,54,780 1,58,144 2.2 16.2
EBITDA margin (%) 52.4 52.6 53.1 52.8 52.9 11bp 49bp
PAT 53,370 54,450 62,310 64,770 64,811 0.1 21.4
NPM (%) 20.6 20.6 22.0 22.1 21.7
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Indus Towers (REDUCE; target price: INR 335)

(QoQ change: 4.8%; YoY change: 17.6%)

Q4FY25 estimates
QoQ YoY
Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
KPIs
Towers 2,19,736 2,25,910 2,29,658 2,34,643 2,38,643 1.7 8.6
Tenancies 3,68,588 3,74,928 3,79,236 3,86,819 3,96,819 2.6 7.7
Tenancies net adds (QoQ) 15,126 6,340 4,308 7,583 10,000
Tenancy (x) 1.69 1.67 1.66 1.65 1.66
Reported rentals (INR/month) 41,435 41,094 41,125 41,426 41,302 (0.3) (0.3)

Financials (INR mn)

Rental 45,785 46,366 47,078 48,165 48,548 0.8 6.0
Pass-through 26,147 27,464 27,575 27,309 28,215 3.3 7.9
Revenue 71,932 73,830 74,653 75,474 76,764 1.7 6.7
EBITDA 40,716 45,041 48,638 69,581 39,956 (42.6) (1.9)
EBITDA margin (%) 56.6 61.0 65.2 92.2 52.1 -4014bp -455bp
PAT 18,531 19,259 22,235 40,032 16,829 (58.0) (9.2)
EPS (INR) 6.9 7.1 8.3 14.9 6.2 (58.0) (9.2)
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Tata Communications (BUY; target price: INR 1,840)

(QoQ change: -8.0%; YoY change: -22.3%)

Q4FY25 estimates
QoQ YoY
INR mn Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25E
change (%) change (%)
Segment Revenue 50,848 51,163 52,597 53,138 54,896 3.3 8.0
Voice 4,290 4,227 4,255 4,105 3,900 (5.0) (9.1)
Data 46,559 46,936 48,342 49,032 50,996 4.0 9.5

Segment EBITDA 9,014 9,541 9,279 9,896 10,224 3.3 13.4

Voice 440 462 478 483 459 (5.0) 4.1
Data 8,573 9,079 8,801 9,413 9,765 3.7 13.9

Segment EBITDA margin (%) 17.7 18.6 17.6 18.6 18.6 0bp 90bp
Voice 10.3 10.9 11.2 11.8 11.8 0bp 149bp
Data 18.4 19.3 18.2 19.2 19.1 -5bp 74bp

Consolidated
Revenue 56,917 56,334 57,674 57,981 59,751 3.1 5.0
EBITDA 10,563 11,242 11,170 11,810 12,093 2.4 14.5
EBITDA margin (%) 18.6 20.0 19.4 20.4 20.2 -13bp 168bp
PAT 3,212 3,328 2,272 2,360 3,355 42.2 4.5
NPM (%) 5.6 5.9 3.9 4.1 5.6
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

India | Institutional Equity Research 5

Telecom | Sector Update | 05 April 2025

Price chart
Bharti Airtel Vodafone Idea Indus Towers Tata Communications
2000 20 500 2500
1800 18 450
1600 16 400 2000
1400 14 350
1200 12 300 1500
1000 10 250

(INR)

(INR)
(INR)

(INR)
800 8 200 1000
600 6 150
400 4 100 500
200 2 50
0 0 0 0
Oct-22

Oct-23

Oct-24
Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-23

Apr-22
Apr-22

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25
Oct-24

Oct-24
Oct-22

Oct-23

Oct-22

Oct-23
Oct-23
Oct-22

Oct-24

Bharti Hexacom
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
(INR)

600
400
200
0
Apr-24

Jun-24

Apr-25
Feb-25
Aug-24

Dec-24
Oct-24

Source: Bloomberg

India | Institutional Equity Research 6

Telecom | Sector Update | 05 April 2025

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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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Telecom | Sector Update | 05 April 2025

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