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Common Errors in Statistics 2nd Edition Phillip I. Good
Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Phillip I. Good, James W. Hardin
ISBN(s): 9780471794318, 0471794317
Edition: 2
File Details: PDF, 3.12 MB
Year: 2006
Language: english
COMMON ERRORS IN STATISTICS
(AND HOW TO AVOID THEM)

Second Edition

Phillip I. Good
Huntington Beach, CA

James W. Hardin
Columbia, SC

A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION

COMMON ERRORS IN STATISTICS
(AND HOW TO AVOID THEM)
COMMON ERRORS IN STATISTICS
(AND HOW TO AVOID THEM)

Second Edition

Phillip I. Good
Huntington Beach, CA

James W. Hardin
Columbia, SC

A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION

Copyeright © 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

ISBN-13: 978-0-471-79431-8
ISBN-10: 0-471-79431-7

Printed in the United States of America.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 Contents

Preface ix

PART I FOUNDATIONS 1
1. Sources of Error 3
Prescription 4
Fundamental Concepts 4
Ad Hoc, Post Hoc Hypotheses 7

2. Hypotheses: The Why of Your Research 13

Prescription 13
What Is a Hypothesis? 13
How precise must a hypothesis be? 14
Found Data 16
Null hypothesis 16
Neyman–Pearson Theory 17
Deduction and Induction 21
Losses 22
Decisions 24
To Learn More 25

3. Collecting Data 27
Preparation 27
Measuring Devices 28
Determining Sample Size 31
Fundamental Assumptions 36
Experimental Design 38
Four Guidelines 39

CONTENTS v
 Are Experiments Really Necessary? 42
To Learn More 42

PART II HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND ESTIMATION 45

4. Estimation 47
Prevention 47
Desirable and Not-So-Desirable Estimators 47
Interval Estimates 51
Improved Results 55
Summary 56
To Learn More 56

5. Testing Hypotheses: Choosing a Test Statistic 57

Comparing Means of Two Populations 59
Comparing Variances 67
Comparing the Means of K Samples 71
Higher-Order Experimental Designs 73
Contingency Tables 79
Inferior Tests 80
Multiple Tests 81
Before You Draw Conclusions 81
Summary 84
To Learn More 84

6. Strengths and Limitations of Some Miscellaneous Statistical

Procedures 87
Bootstrap 88
Bayesian Methodology 89
Meta-Analysis 96
Permutation Tests 99
To Learn More 99

7. Reporting Your Results 101

Fundamentals 101
Tables 104
Standard Error 105
p-Values 110
Confidence Intervals 111
Recognizing and Reporting Biases 113
Reporting Power 115
Drawing Conclusions 115

vi CONTENTS
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The earnestness with which Rafaella spoke went to the hearts of
Auristella and Constance, and they believed her words, and only
replied by thanks. They immediately called Periander and Antonio,
and told them what had passed. Then, without seeming to do
anything particular, they all went out. Bartholomew objected much
to the move, for he felt more in need of rest than a change of
abode; but he obeyed his masters, and they reached the church,
where they were well received by the priest and the Jadraque, to
whom they related all Rafaella had told them. The priest said, "It is
some days, gentlemen, since the arrival of these vessels has
disturbed us, and although it is customary for them to come, yet I
have felt uneasy. Come in hither, my children, the church is a good
castle, and has strong and good doors, not easily burnt or
destroyed." "Ah," said the Jadraque, "if that my eyes may but see,
before they close for ever, this land freed from the thorns and the
briers that oppress it. Ah! when will the time come, foretold by my
grandfather, who was a learned astrologer, when Spain shall see
herself entire and firm in the Christian religion, for she alone is the
corner of the earth where the true faith is most acknowledged and
revered. I am a Moor, sirs, and you hear that I deny it not, but not
for this am I the less a Christian, for God gives his grace to all who
serve him, and as you know, he makes his sun shine alike upon the
good and the bad, and bestows his rain equally on the just and the
unjust. I say, then, that this grandfather of mine used to fore-tell
that, about this time, there would reign in Spain a king of the house
of Austria (Note 7), who would conceive in his soul the difficult
resolution of expelling the Moors from the country, as one flings
from one's bosom a serpent that is devouring one's entrails, or
rather, as one who separates the wild flowers from the wheat, and
pulls out the weeds from the growing grain. Come, then, brave
youth, and prudent king, and execute this decree of expulsion; let
not the fear of rendering this country desert and depopulated, deter
thee, nor even the consideration that there are many who have been
baptized whom it would not be well to expel; for, although these are
fears that deserve to be considered, yet the carrying so great a work
into effect would make them not worth thinking of. Soon the land
would be re-peopled by Christians, it would again be fertile, and
more so than it is now: it would have its lords, and, if not so many
or such humble vassals as now, yet they would be good Catholics,
under whose protection their roads would be secure, and peace
would reign, and riches increase without fear of robbers and
highwaymen."
After having thus spoken, he made the doors fast, and fortified them
by putting all the seats and benches against them. They then
mounted to the top of the tower, taking up a portable ladder, or
steps. The priest carried up with him the holy vessels belonging to
the sacrament, provided a store of stones, and armed himself with
two loaded guns. They left the baggage mule at the door relieved of
its burden, and Bartholomew shut himself in with his masters.
With watchful eyes, ready hands, and resolute hearts, the little party
awaited the hour of assault, of which the Moorish maiden had given
them warning.
Midnight passed, the priest knew it by the stars; they looked out
upon the sea which lay before them, and not a cloud passed over in
the moonlight, but they fancied it a Moorish bark, and, applying
themselves to the bells, they began to raise a peal so loud and
vigorous that every valley and all the shores resounded again; at
which sound the officials in the harbour assembled together, and ran
here and there, but their haste was of no use in preventing the
vessels approaching the shore and taking away the people from
land; those in the place who were expecting them, went out laden
with their most valuable property, and were received by the Turks
with loud cries and shouts, and the sound of musical instruments.
They set fire to the place, and also to the church doors, not meaning
to enter in, but simply to do all the harm they could. Bartholomew
was left to go afoot, for they carried off his mule, demolished a
stone cross that stood at the entrance of the town, called aloud
upon Mahomet, and gave themselves up to the Turks, a dishonest
and thievish nation. Several times, and perhaps not always in vain,
did Periander and Antonio fire their guns; many a stone did
Bartholomew throw, always to that quarter whence the mule was
stolen, and many an arrow was shot by the Jadraque; but more than
all were the tears that were shed by Auristella and Constance,
praying to God to deliver them from the danger they were in, and
that his temple might not be injured by the fire, which it was not: it
did not escape, however, by a miracle, but because the doors were
of iron, and the fire not very strong.
It was nearly day when the ships laden with their prizes went to sea
with shouts of triumph and raising the Moorish war cry, and the
joyful sounds of atabals and trumpets.
Two persons were now seen running towards the church, one from
the shore, the other from the land side; on their nearer approach,
the Jadraque knew one to be his niece Rafaella, who, with a cane
cross in her hand, came, crying out, "Christian, Christian, and free,
free by the grace and mercy of God!"
They recognized in the other the notary, who had by chance been
out of the town that night, and at the sound of the alarm bell came
to see the disastrous events, which he deplored, not for the loss of
wife or child, since he had none, but for that of his house, which was
plundered and burned.
They waited till the day was far advanced, and the ships began to
disappear in the distance, and the coast guardians had taken
measures to protect the coast, then they descended from the tower,
and opened the church, which Rafaella entered with her face bathed
in joyful tears, and her beauty heightened by her emotion. She knelt
and offered her prayers to the images, and then embraced her
uncle, first having kissed the hands of the good priest. The notary
neither said a prayer nor kissed the hand of anybody, for his whole
soul was occupied with the thoughts of his lost property.
The first alarm having subsided, the fugitives recovered their spirits,
and the Jadraque recovering breath, began afresh to think about his
grandfather's prophecy as being undoubtedly inspired from above.
—"Ah! noble youth! ah! invincible king, trample down and destroy all
impediments, and make Spain clear and free from my bad race,
which now infests and injures her. Ah! prince, as wise as thou art
illustrious, thou new Atlantis, who supportest the weight of this
kingdom, aid, and make easy with thy wisdom this necessary
expulsion; fill the seas with thy galleys laden with the useless crowd
of the Hagarene generation; cast upon the opposite shores the
brambles, weeds, and thorns that hinder the growth and abundance
of a Christian population; for, if the few Hebrews who went over into
Egypt multiplied so exceedingly, that, when they went away, they
were in number more than seven hundred families, what is not to be
feared from those who are more numerous and live more idly?
Religion does not gather any under her wing, none are cut down by
the Indies; war does not diminish their numbers; all marry, all, or
most, have children; hence it is to be inferred that they must
increase and multiply innumerably. Again, I say, arise, O king! arise,
and set to work, and leave the history of thy reign bright as the sun,
and clear as the blue sky above us."
Two days more the pilgrims stayed in this place. They provided
themselves with all they wanted; Bartholomew got a new baggage
mule; they thanked the priest for his kindness, and praised the
Jadraque for his right way of thinking, and, embracing Rafaella, took
their leave of all, and went on their way.
 FOOTNOTES:
[Q] Cosas de Argel.
[R] I can nowhere find the meaning of Jadraque.
 CHAPTER XII.
As they travelled, they amused themselves by talking over the past
dangers, the good feeling of the Jadraque, the gallant conduct of the
Priest, the zeal of Rafaella, whom they had forgotten to question as
to how she had escaped from the power of the Turks when the
assault was made. However they guessed that she must have
concealed herself somewhere in order to gain her desire of living
and dying a Christian.
They reached Valencia, but would not enter the town for fear they
should be detained there; but they could not fail of admiring its
noble situation, the excellence of its inhabitants, of which they had
heard so much, the pleasantness of its environs, and, finally, all that
makes it beautiful and rich beyond all other cities, not only in Spain,
but in all Europe; and chiefly they admired the beauty of the
women, and the pure and graceful language so sweet and pleasant,
that none but the Portuguese can compete with it in sweetness and
pleasantness.
They determined to go on and to lengthen their days' journeys, even
at the risk of being fatigued, to reach Barcelona, where they heard
they might find vessels in which to embark for Genoa without going
through France.
Nothing of any importance happened on the way to Barcelona,
unless that they saw afar off the holy mountains of Montserrat,
which they worshipped with Christian devotion without designing to
go there, as it must have detained them.
They arrived at Barcelona at the moment when four Spanish galleys
were just entering the port, which fired a salute of heavy artillery.
Four boats were let down, one of which was adorned with rich
carpets from the Levant, and crimson cushions, and in it was seated
a young lady, richly dressed, with another older lady, and two young
girls, neatly attired. A crowd of people came out of the city, as is
usually the custom, both to look at the galleys and the persons who
had come in them; and curiosity led our pilgrims so near the boats
when they landed, that they nearly touched the lady as she stepped
out of the boat. She, casting her eyes around when she had got
ashore, they lighted upon Constance, and she said, "Come hither,
lovely pilgrim, and accompany me to the town, I have a debt to pay
to you of which you little think. Let your companions come likewise,
for there is no reason why you should leave such good company."
"Yours, as far as I can see, is so good," replied Constance, "that it
would indeed be senseless to refuse it; let us go where you please,
my friends will follow, for they never leave me."
The lady took Constance by the hand, and escorted by many
gentlemen, who had come out of the city to receive her, and by
some of the people who had landed from the galleys, they
proceeded together to the town. During their walk, Constance never
took her eyes off her, trying, but in vain, to remember where she
had ever seen her before.
They took up their lodging in one of the best houses, and would not
suffer the pilgrims to go elsewhere. As soon as an opportunity
occurred, this discourse took place between them:—
"I would fain relieve you, my friends, from the wonder you must be
feeling, as to the cause I have for wishing to be of service to you,
and so I will inform you that my name is Ambrosia Agustina, and my
birth-place a city of Aragón. Don Bernardo Agustina is my brother,
and he commands those galleys that lie in the bay. Contarino de
Arbolanchez, a knight of the order of Aleantara, during my brother's
absence, secretly and unknown to my relations, fell in love with me,
and I, led by my destiny, or, perhaps, by my too great weakness,
with the title of wife, made him master of myself and my whole
heart. The same day on which I gave my hand to him, he received
an order from the king instantly to set off and conduct a regiment of
Spanish infantry (just come from Lombardy to Genoa) to Malta,
where it was expected that the Turks would make a descent.
Contarino obeyed without delay the orders he received; without
being moved by my tears, he departed. I felt as if the sky had fallen
upon my head, and that my heart was pressed down between it and
the earth. A few days passed, when as one scheme after another
entered my brain, I resolved to put one into execution, the
accomplishment of which had well nigh cost me both life and
honour. I left my home in the disguise of a man, the dress of a
young page which I took, and engaged myself as servant to a
drummer in a regiment about eight leagues off; I soon learned to
beat the drum as well as my master, and to play the part of a
buffoon like those of my profession. Another regiment joined ours,
and both together marched to Carthagena, in order to embark in the
galleys commanded by my brother. It was my intention to go over to
Italy, and seek my husband, from whose affection I hoped that my
rash conduct would escape censure, and that he would not find fault
with my wish to see him, which made me so blind that I never
considered the risk I ran of being discovered, if I embarked in my
brother's galley; but as no difficulties deter an enamoured heart, and
it sees none which it cannot conquer, no fears it cannot oppose, no
roughnesses it cannot make smooth, I resisted all these, and hoped
even in a kind of desperation. But, as the event of things often turns
out different to what we expect, so mine, as ill considered as it was
imprudent, placed me in the situation you soon shall hear. The
soldiers of the regiments I mentioned, engaged in a cruel affray with
the people of a town in La Mancha, about lodgings, the result of
which was, that a certain count of some place, the name of which I
do not know, received his death-wound. There was an enquiry made
by the court, the captains were taken into custody, the soldiers
separated, and some, among whom I, for my misfortune, was one,
though quite guiltless of any fault, condemned to the galleys to work
two years at the oar. In vain I lamented my fate, seeing how all my
plans were frustrated; I would gladly have died, but the fear of a yet
worse fate in another world made the knife drop from my hand, and
the rope from my throat; all I did was to endeavour to deform my
face, and make myself as ugly as I could, and then shut myself up in
a cart we were put into, with the intention of weeping so much and
eating so little, that grief and hunger might do what the cord and
the knife had left undone. We reached Carthagena, where the
galleys were not yet arrived; we were put into a house and well
guarded, and there in fear and trembling I awaited my fate. I know
not, sirs, if you recollect a cart which came up with you near a small
inn, when this lovely pilgrim (pointing to Constance) helped to
restore a fainting prisoner with some cordials."
"Yes," said Constance, "I remember it well."
"Then know that it was I whom you assisted," said the lady
Ambrosia. "From the place where I lay in the cart I could see you all,
and admired you, for your appearance was such that it was
impossible to look and not admire.
"The galleys came in at last with a Moorish brigantine that they had
taken; the same day the soldiers were put on board in irons, the
clothes they wore were taken off, and they were dressed in those
worn by the rowers. A sad and miserable change, yet light, for the
hardship that does not destroy life, custom will at last alleviate. They
came to undress me, the boatswain ordered them to wash my face,
for I had not strength to lift an arm; the barber who attended the
crew looked at me and said, 'I shall spoil but few razors with this
beard. I wonder what they have sent us this boy for, who looks as if
he was made of china ware, as if our galleys were made of
gingerbread, and our oars of sweetmeat. Eh, boy, what crime hast
thou committed to deserve this punishment? I doubt not but that
thou art brought to this by the sins of others;' and then continuing
his discourse to the boatswain, he said, 'Truly, master, it would be
much better to send this boy to the general with a chain to his leg,
for at the oar he won't be worth a farthing.'
"This talk, and the thoughts of my misfortune, which now seemed to
have reached its climax, so overcame me that I fell down in a
swoon, and lay as if dead. I have been told that it was four hours
before I came to myself, during which time they had done
everything in their power to restore me to my senses, and what I
should most have felt, if I had been conscious, was, that they must
have discovered I was no man, but a woman. I recovered at last,
and the first thing I saw was the face of my brother and of my
husband, the latter held me in his arms. I do not know how it was
that I did not die that moment; I do not know how it was that my
tongue did not cleave to the roof of my mouth; all I know is, that I
knew not what they said to me; but, I heard my brother say, 'What
means this dress, my sister?' and my husband said, 'What is this
disguise, my soul? If I did not know so well your virtue and honour,
my sweet wife, this dress should be exchanged only for a shroud.'
'Your wife?' said my brother, 'this seems as strange a story to me as
it is to find her thus disguised; but if it be true, it would be a
sufficient recompense for the trouble it causes me to see her thus.'
"At this instant I had begun to recover my scattered senses, and I
remember that I said, 'Dear brother, I am Ambrosia Agustina, thy
sister, I am also the wife of Señor Contarino de Arbolanchez; Love,
and thy absence, O my brother, gave him to me as a husband; but,
on the wedding day he left me, and I, rash, desperate, and
inconsiderate, set off to seek him in this disguise.' Then I told them
all the story I have already narrated, and I had the good fortune (for
now my fortune was beginning to amend) to find that they believed
me, and pitied me. I then heard that my husband had been taken
prisoner with one of the two vessels in which he had sailed for
Genoa, and that it was only two days ago that he had recovered his
liberty, and had had no time or opportunity to see my brother till the
moment of my fainting. Events so strange are hardly credible, yet it
is all as I have said. In these galleys the lady whom you saw with
me was going to Italy with her two nieces; her son has the charge of
the royal patrimony in Sicily; they supplied me with the dress I now
wear, and my husband and brother sent us on shore to refresh and
amuse ourselves, and see the friends that they have in this city. If
you are going to Rome, I will make my brother convey you to the
nearest seaport. The case of cordials I would fain repay with the
best I possess; and if I should not myself go to Italy, I would ask my
brother to take my debt upon him. This, my friends, is my history; if
you should find it hard to believe I cannot wonder; but there is a
common saying that it is courtesy to believe, and, in yours, which
must be great, I place my credit."
Thus the fair Ambrosia ended her story; and now her hearers began
to express their interest and admiration, and to discuss the different
circumstances of the case; and then Constance and Auristella began
embracing Ambrosia, who was to return to her home by her
husband's desire, because, however charming and lovely she may
be, the company of a wife is embarrassing in times of war to a
husband.
That night the sea ran very high, so much so that it was necessary
to loosen the galleys that were anchored in the bay, which in this
part was not safe for them. The courteous Catalans, a people
terrible when angry, and most supremely courteous when at peace,
to maintain both which qualities they almost outdo themselves,
which is therefore outdoing all other nations, visited and feasted the
Lady Ambrosia as much as was possible.
Auristella, who had learned by experience what it was to encounter
a storm at sea, would not embark in the galleys, but determined to
go by way of France, which was then quiet. Ambrosia returned to
Aragón. The galleys continued their voyage, and the pilgrims their
journey, entering France by way of Perpignan.
 CHAPTER XIII.
Our party wished to take Perpignan as their first entrance into
France. The adventures of Ambrosia furnished them with
conversation for some days, her great youth forming some excuse
for her many errors, and they all were disposed to find pardon for
her rashness in the great love she bore her husband. She had, as I
before said, returned home to her own country; the galleys had
gone on their voyage, and our pilgrims on their journey.
They travelled through the land of France, and passing through
Languedoc, entered Provence, where, in an inn at which they rested,
they found three ladies of such extraordinary beauty, that, had not
Auristella been in the world, they might have borne away the palm
of beauty. They seemed to be of high degree, judging by their
retinue and attendants. They, on seeing the pilgrims, were struck by
the grace of Periander and the peerless beauty of Auristella and
Constance; they went up to them, and, with smiling countenances
and courteous demeanour, asked who they were in the Castilian
tongue, for they perceived that they were Spanish pilgrims; and in
France there is neither man nor woman but learns the Spanish
language. Whilst the ladies were waiting for Auristella's reply, to
whom they had addressed themselves, Periander had stepped aside
to converse with a servant, who appeared to belong to the illustrious
Frenchwomen, asking him who they were, and whither going; and
he answered, "The Duke de Nemours, who is of the blood-royal in
this country, is a gallant and very prudent gentleman, but withal he
loves his pleasures; he has lately come into possession of his
inheritance, and is resolved to marry, not to please others, but to
choose for himself, even though he is offered great increase of
wealth and property, and although he is acting contrary to the king's
commands; but, he says, that kings may give what wives they
choose to their vassals, but he does not choose that they should
give one to him. With this fantasy, or folly, or wisdom, or whatever
you please to call it, he has despatched some of his servants to
different parts of France in search of women, who must, besides
being of high birth, be beautiful, for him to select a wife from among
them. He does not care for wealth, but is satisfied to let her portion
be her qualities and her beauty. He had heard of these three ladies,
and sent me, who am in his service, to see them, and have their
portraits taken by a famous painter, who travels with me; all three
are free from any engagement; all are young, as you perceive; the
eldest, who is called Delicia, is very sensible, but poor; the middle
one, whose name is Bellarmina, is high-minded and witty, and
moderately rich; the least of the three is called Felicia Flora, she is
much the richest of all. They are all acquainted with the duke's
desire, and I have a conjecture that each lady would gladly be the
chosen one. Having an opportunity to go to Rome for the jubilee of
this year, which is the Centenary, so kept according to custom, they
have left their homes, and mean to go to Paris and see the duke,
hoping, perhaps, that this may be of some avail. But, Sir Pilgrim,
since you have come here I have determined to carry my master a
present, which will entirely put an end to any hopes these ladies
may have conceived, for I intend to take him the portrait of this fair
pilgrim who is with you, for she is the sole queen of all earthly
beauty; and if she was but as highly born as she is beautiful, my
master's servants would have no further to go, nor he anything more
to desire. Tell me, sir, on your life, if this pilgrim is married, what is
her name, and what her parentage?" To which Periander tremblingly
replied, "Her name is Auristella; she is on her way to Rome, and who
her parents are, she has never told anybody; that she is free and
unmarried I can assure you, for that I know without a doubt; but
there is another thing to be said, which is, that she is so
independent and mistress of her own will, that she will never submit
it to any earthly prince, because, she says, that she will submit it
only to a heavenly one; and to convince you that this is the truth,
learn that I am her brother, and acquainted with her most secret
thoughts; so it will be of no use at all to have her picture taken, but
would serve only to disturb the mind of your master, if by chance he
should feel disposed to overlook the humble birth of our parents."
"Notwithstanding this," said the other, "I must have the picture if
only for curiosity, and that France may be made acquainted with this
new miracle of beauty."
So saying, they took leave of each other, and Periander wished to
quit the place directly, that the painter might not have time to take
Auristella's portrait. Bartholomew had to get the mule ready afresh,
and again began to be out of sorts with Periander for being in such a
hurry to move.
The duke's servant, seeing that Periander meant to depart
immediately, came to him and said, "I would fain, sir, have entreated
you to stay a short time in this place, if but until night, that my
painter might have time and space to take the likeness of your
sister; but you may go in peace, for the painter assures me that
though he has only seen her once, her image is so fixed in his
imagination that he can paint her by himself quite as well as if he
was looking at her."
Periander cursed the rare skill of the artist in his heart, but not the
less for this did he wish to be gone; taking leave directly of the three
charming Frenchwomen, who embraced Auristella and Constance
warmly, and offered to take them to Rome along with their party, if
they pleased. Auristella thanked them in the most polite manner she
knew, telling them that she obeyed her brother Periander in all
things, and that neither she nor Constance could stay behind, since
her brother Antonio and Periander were going. So they departed,
and in about a week they arrived at a place in Provence; what
happened there will be told in the next chapter.
 CHAPTER XIV.
History, poetry, and painting resemble one another, and so it appears
that in writing history, one paints a picture; in painting, one
composes a story; history does not always treat of weighty matters,
neither does the painter always choose great or magnificent subjects
for his pencil; poetry is not always in the clouds; history must treat
of base deeds; painting has grass and furze in her pictures, and
poetry exalts humble things. These truths are shown in our history.
It was noon, the sun's rays shot down vertically upon the ground,
and the heat was very great; many pleasant looking houses were
scattered over the peaceful plains through which they were now
travelling, where the gentry of this country passed the greater part
of the year, seldom quitting them for a town life. Our travellers had
arrived near one of these, which was a little distant from the high
road; the shadow cast by a tall tower of the dwelling, invited them
to take their siesta there, as the heat threatened to be great. The
careful Bartholomew unloaded his mule, and spread a carpet on the
ground; they seated themselves in a circle, and prepared to make
their repast upon the provisions that Bartholomew had taken care to
provide, which were welcome, for they were beginning to feel
hungry; but, hardly had they raised their hands to their mouths,
when Bartholomew, looking up, cried out, "Get away, gentlemen!
ladies, get away quickly! here is something tumbling down from the
skies, I know not what, but it will not be well to have it fall on us."
They looked up, and saw a figure coming down from above, which,
before they could tell what it was, fell almost at Periander's feet. The
figure proved to be a very pretty woman who had been thrown from
the top of the tower; but, her clothes serving as a bell, supported
her like wings, and she got up unhurt, a thing quite possible without
any miracle. However, the event left her in a state of great agitation
and fright, as also was the state of those who had seen her fall. In
the tower, loud shrieks and screams were heard from a woman
whom they saw struggling with a man, and it seemed as if each was
endeavouring to throw the other over.
"Help, help!" cried the woman, "Help me, gentlemen, for this
madman wants to throw me down from the tower!"
The flying woman, now somewhat recovered, said, "If any of you
are bold enough to go up through that door, (pointing to one at the
foot of the tower,) you might save my children and other helpless
creatures from the mortal danger they are in."
Periander, impelled by his generous feelings, instantly went in, and,
in a few minutes they saw him on the top of the tower engaged with
the seeming madman, from whom he had taken a knife, and was
trying to defend himself; but fate had determined that the tragedy of
the man's life should end here, and both fell together from the
height on the ground below. The madman had stabbed himself with
the knife that Periander held, and Periander's eyes, nose and mouth
were streaming with blood; for as he had no petticoats to sustain
him, the fall took its effect, and he lay lifeless upon the earth.
Auristella, seeing him thus, immediately supposed him dead; she
threw herself upon his body, and, without caring who saw her, she
pressed her mouth to his, as if she expected to receive some last
breath or last token; but although there had been any such, she
would not have received it, because the firmly-closed teeth would
have denied its exit. Constance was in no condition to lend her aid,
for she stood as if transfixed on the spot, her feet glued to the
ground, as though she was taking root there, or as if she had been a
marble statue. Antonio flew to assist the sufferers, and to separate
the living from those he believed were dead corpses. Bartholomew
was the only one of the party whose eyes expressed the grief that
he felt in his heart, and he was weeping loudly.
All being in this deep affliction, whilst as yet no one had uttered a
word of speech, it was seen that a troop of people was approaching,
who had probably from the high road perceived the persons falling
from the tower, and came to ask what had happened. It was the
travelling party of the three beautiful French ladies, Delicia,
Bellarmina, and Felicia Flora. As soon as they came up, they
recognized in Auristella and Periander the two pilgrims, whose
marvellous beauty left an impression never to be forgotten by any
one who had ever seen them. Scarcely had their compassion caused
them to alight, in order to give some assistance if possible to the
distress they saw before them, when they were assailed from behind
by seven or eight armed men, who fell suddenly upon them; at sight
of this, Antonio seized his bow and arrows, which were never far off,
and which he always kept ready for defence or offence. One of the
ruffians had seized upon Felicia Flora, and placed her on his saddle
before him; then, turning to his companions, he said, "It is done,
this one will do; let us be off." Antonio, who saw this discourteous
act, fitted an arrow to his bow, extended to the utmost his left arm,
and drew the string with his right till it touched his right ear, so that
the two extreme points of the bow almost met, then, taking the
robber who held Felicia Flora as his mark, let fly his arrow; without
touching Felicia Flora, except a portion of the veil which covered her
head, it pierced the ruffian through the body: one of his companions
hastened to avenge him, and, without giving Antonio time to fit a
second arrow to his bow, he dealt him so violent a blow on the
head, that he fell to the ground senseless. At this sight, Constance
left off being a statue, and flew to her brother's assistance. The
force of kindred blood was such that it warmed hers, which had
frozen at the sight of a friend's sorrow; both, signs of strong
affection.
By this time people had come out of the house armed, and the
servants in the suite of the three ladies, who were unarmed, had
collected stones, and came to the defence of their mistresses. The
robbers, who saw their leader dead, and that so many persons were
collected, began to think they should gain nothing by the enterprise,
and that it would be madness to risk their lives for one who could no
longer reward them; they therefore turned their backs and fled,
leaving the field free. Hitherto, in this affray, few sword strokes had
been heard; no warlike instruments of music had sounded, the wail
of the living over the dead had not yet been heard, but in bitter
silence the sorrowing ones kept their grief within their lips, only
some sad moans and sobs had issued from the breasts of the
miserable Auristella and Constance, each one closely embracing her
brother, without being able to utter those complaints which relieve
the breaking heart. But, at length, heaven not having ordained that
they should die thus suddenly, and without complaint or
lamentation, untied their tongues, which had been cleaving to the
roof of their mouths, and Auristella burst forth in these words:—
"Unhappy that I am, how am I to seek for any breath in a dead
body, or how should I be able to feel it, if I am so deprived of it
myself that I know not whether I can speak or breathe. Alas, my
brother! and what a fall was this, that has so destroyed all my
hopes; alas! and could not your high lineage save you from this
misfortune? But would it have been so great if you were not so
high? The highest mountains attract the lightning, and where it
meets with most resistance it does the greatest harm; you were a
mountain, but a humble mountain, for you concealed yourself from
the eyes of men in the shade of your wisdom and your ability; you
were going to seek your fortune in mine, but death has cut short the
intention, and mine is going with it to the tomb. What will the
queen, your mother, do, when the news of your unexpected death
reaches her ears? Alas! woe is me, once more alone in a foreign
land, like the poor ivy torn from her natural support."
These words about queens, and mountains, and greatness, caught
the attention of the listening bystanders, and increased their
wonder; Constance, who held her wounded brother in her lap whilst
the compassionate Felicia Flora tried to staunch the blood with her
own handkerchief, spoke thus:—
"Alas!" she said, "my protector, what avails it that fortune has raised
me if misfortune is to destroy me. Return to me, O my brother! if
you wish that I should return to my senses; or, if not, ye pitying
heavens, let our eyes be closed in death together, and one grave
receive our bodies, for the good fortune I met with so unexpectedly
can bring no better boon than a speedy end." So saying, she fell
fainting on the ground; and Auristella was no better off, so that they
seemed more dead than the wounded ones.
The lady who fell from the tower, the chief cause of Periander's fall,
ordered her servants, several of whom had come out of the house,
to carry him to the bed of Count Domicio, her lord and husband; she
likewise commanded them to take his body up that it might receive
burial; Bartholomew took the young Antonio in his arms; the ladies
had charge of Auristella and Constance, and, in mournful procession
and with slow steps, they moved along to the almost regal looking
mansion.
 CHAPTER XV.
The sage advice that the three French ladies gave to the two
mourners, Constance and Auristella, was of small avail, for in a
recent grief there is no room for consolation. In the agony of a
sudden disaster we cannot accept at once of any comfort, however
wisely it may be administered; a fresh wound is painful till it is
closed, and it takes time to heal before it is again opened; therefore,
whilst one weeps, whilst one groans, whilst one is under the
influence of the grief that causes one's lamentations and sighs, it is
not discreet at all to offer remedies. Let us then leave Auristella still
to weep, and Constance to lament, and both to shut their ears to all
consolation, whilst the fair Clarice relates the cause of her husband's
madness.
She told the French ladies, that, before he married her, he was in
love with a relation of his own, who had every expectation of
marrying him. "My lot seemed to promise fair, only to become the
darker in the end," said Clarice; "for Lorena, (so this relation was
called,) concealing the anger she felt at our marriage, used to load
him with a variety of presents, the most agreeable and pleasing,
rather than costly; among which, she sent him once, much as the
false Dejanira sent the shirt to Hercules, I say she sent him some
shirts of the finest linen and of beautiful workmanship. Scarcely had
he put one on, when he became senseless, and for two days lay like
a corpse, although we directly took it off, fancying that it had been
bewitched by a slave of Lorena's, who was supposed to be a dealer
in magic arts. My husband was restored to life, but his mind was so
disturbed and upset, that everything he did was like the act of a
madman, and not a quiet madman, but so cruel, furious and wild,
that it became necessary to chain him; and, to-day, I being in the
tower, he contrived to escape from his place of confinement, and
flung me through the upper windows, but I was preserved by my
wide garments, which bore me up, or rather, I ought to say, by the
mercy of God, who protects the innocent." Then she told how the
pilgrim had gone up into the tower to the assistance of another
woman, one of her attendants, whom he was also trying to throw
over, and with her were two little children whom he wished to
strangle, but that the event was that the count and the pilgrim had
been dashed down from the tower to the ground below, the count,
wounded mortally, and the pilgrim having a knife in his hand, which
it appeared he had wrested from the madman, his wound was such
that it needed not the fall to kill him, the wound was enough in
itself.
Meantime, Periander still lay senseless on the bed where they had
placed him, and where the surgeons came to see him and set the
dislocated bones. They gave him medicines proper for his case, felt
his pulse, and, by degrees, he came a little to himself, and knew
some of the persons who stood round him, especially Auristella, to
whom, in a scarcely audible voice, he said, "Sister, I die in the holy
Catholic faith, and I die loving you." He could say no more, and did
not speak again at that time. They bled Antonio, and the surgeons
having examined his wound, demanded a reward for the good news
they were able to give his sister, that it was deep, but not mortal,
and that they would promise to cure him by the help of heaven.
Felicia Flora rewarded them handsomely first, and Constance
afterwards; and the surgeons, not to be over scrupulous, took it
from both.
It took a month and rather more for the invalids to be cured: the
French ladies would not hear of leaving them, so great a friendship
had sprung up between them and Auristella, and Constance and
their two brothers; Felicia Flora, especially, could not quit Antonio's
bedside, loving him with a gentle affection, so delicate, that it only
seemed kind feeling and gratitude for the deed he had done in
saving her when his arrow freed her from the grasp of Rupertino,
who was, she told them, a gentleman, lord of a castle not far from
her own, and that he, impelled by a desperate passion, not by real
love, had long followed and persecuted her to marry him; but that
she knew well both by experience and by the voice of common
fame, which seldom lies, that the character of Rupertino was harsh
and cruel, and that his disposition was changeable and capricious,
for which reason she had refused his suit. She guessed, therefore,
that furious at her disdain, he had made this attempt to seize her
person by force, since she would not give herself to him willingly;
but the arrow of Antonio had cut short his wicked designs, and that
for this she felt most grateful.
When at length the moment came that the invalids felt health
returning, and by their reviving strength showing signs of this; also,
with health, revived their wish to pursue their journey: they
therefore set to work to provide all things necessary for this. As I
before said, the French ladies would not separate from the pilgrims,
and already began to treat them with more respect and admiration,
since, from the words that were uttered by Auristella in her wild
grief, they had an idea of their being persons of very high quality, for
sometimes majesty clothes itself in sackcloth and grandeur conceals
itself in humility. In fact, they regarded them with perplexity; the
poor retinue they had, looked as if they were persons of middling
condition, but the grace and elegance of their manners, and their
extreme beauty, made them seem of almost heavenly birth. Thus
they continued to be in doubt with respect to their real rank and
quality. It was decided by the French ladies that they should travel
on horseback, because Periander's fall had made it impossible for
him to go on foot. The grateful Felicia Flora would not quit the side
of Antonio, and discoursing upon the daring act of Rupertino, whom
they left dead and buried, and of the strange history of the Count
Domicio, whom his cousin's fatal gifts had first deprived of reason,
then of life, and also of the miraculous flight of his wife, more
wonderful than credible; they arrived upon the banks of a river
which was fordable with some trouble. Periander was of opinion that
they should seek a bridge, but all the rest objected to this, and, just
as a flock of sheep when all crowded in a narrow space, one makes
itself a way out and all the rest directly follow, so Bellarmina dashed
into the stream, and all followed her example; Periander, however,
never quitting Auristella's side, nor Antonio that of Felicia Flora, his
sister, Constance, being also close by him. Now fate so willed it that
the rapid motion of the water affected Felicia Flora's head, so that
she fell off her horse into the middle of the river; but, quick as
thought, the gallant Antonio darted after her, and upon his shoulders
bore her, like a second Europa, safe to the opposite shore. She,
seeing his quick action, said, "Thou art very courteous, Spaniard." To
which Antonio replied, "If my courteous deeds did not spring from
your dangers, they might be estimable; but, born as they are of
them, they rather grieve than gladden me."
The party at last all passed over, and reached at nightfall a
farmhouse, which was also an inn, in which they found lodging to
their liking; and what happened to them here demands a new style
and a new chapter.
 CHAPTER XVI.
Things sometimes happen in this world, that if people were
beforehand to devise or project them, they never could succeed in
so doing, and so from that and their rarity they pass as apocryphal,
and are not believed to be as true as they are, and it is necessary to
help people's belief by swearing to the truth, or, at least, it requires
that the relator should be a person of good credit, although, for my
part, I am of opinion that it is best not to tell them at all, according
to the advice in the old Castilian adage,—

"Very wonderful things

Should never be told,
For it is not every one
That can enter into them."

Our pilgrims had not been long in the inn when Bartholomew came
and said, "Make haste, sir, and come and see the most extraordinary
sight you ever saw in your life!" He said this in such a scared and
frightened manner, that, thinking they were going to see some very
strange thing, they followed him, and in a part of the house at some
distance from that in which the pilgrims and the ladies were lodged,
they saw through some matting an apartment entirely hung with
black, the murky darkness of which prevented them from seeing
distinctly what was in it. Whilst they were looking at it, an old man,
also dressed in black, came up to them, and said, "Gentlemen, if you
wish to see the Lady Ruperta without her seeing you, I will contrive
it so that you shall be gratified; in about two hours after midnight
you will have an opportunity of seeing what will surprise you, both
as to her beauty and behaviour."
"Sir," said Periander, "our servant, that you see here, brought us to
see a wonder, but we have seen nothing yet, except a room hung
with black, which is not wonderful at all."
"If you will return hither at the hour I have named," replied the man
in black, "you shall see what will surprise you; for you must know
that in this apartment lodges the Lady Ruperta, who was, not quite
a year ago, the wife of Earl Lambert, of Scotland, which marriage
cost him his life, and has placed her in danger of losing it every
hour; for Claudio Rubicon, a gentleman of very good family in
Scotland, whose great wealth and ancient lineage rendered him
proud and overbearing, and he being also of a warm temperament,
loved my mistress when she was a maiden; but she, whether she
disliked him or not, at any rate, rejected him, and showed her
disdain of his addresses by marrying the earl my master. This hasty
act of hers seemed as if it was a proof of contempt and aversion to
Rubicon, as if the fair Ruperta had not parents who fixed and
directed her choice, and, added to which, the years of the husband
chosen for her, were far better suited to her own; and it is no doubt
desirable that this should be considered in a marriage, although it is
good for the husband to have the advantage in point of age. Now
Rubicon was a widower, and far from young, and he had a son of
about twenty or one-and-twenty years old, a young man extremely
amiable, and of a much better disposition than his father, indeed,
had it been he who had offered himself, my master might be still
alive, and my mistress happier.
"It chanced then that my lady and her husband being at a country
seat of his where they had gone to enjoy themselves together, one
day, in a lonely spot, they suddenly met Rubicon, attended by a
strong party of his servants. At the sight of my lady all the fury he
had felt at the injury he conceived she had done him, was aroused,
and, instead of love, hate and rage sprang up in his soul, and a
desire to revenge himself on her; and as the revenge of a despised
lover far surpasses the offence given, so Rubicon, enraged and
desperate with jealousy and hate, drew his sword, and ran the earl
my master through the body, crying, 'If this be cruelty, far greater
has been that of thy wife to me, for her disdain has tortured me a
hundred thousand times!'
"I was present during this scene, these ears heard his words, and
these eyes saw the blow given, and with these hands did I
endeavour to close the wound. I heard the lamentations of my
mistress which pierced the air. We returned to the spot afterwards to
remove the body for burial, and by her command the head was cut
off, and, in a few days, by dint of certain applications used, all the
flesh was removed from the skull. She had a silver case made to
hold it, and, placing her hand thereon, she made the following vow:
but I forgot to mention that the cruel murderer, either from
forgetfulness, or in his fury, or possibly from the hurry of mind he
must have been in, left his sword sticking in my lord's body; and his
blood even now looks fresh upon the blade. I was going to tell you
that she pronounced these words:—
"'I, the hapless Ruperta, to whom God gave the fatal gift of beauty,
make this vow before high Heaven: with my hand placed on these
sad relics, I swear to revenge my husband's death by all the means
in my power, and with all diligence, though I were to risk therein my
miserable life a thousand times. No dangers shall scare me, no
entreaties shall avail to soften me, and until I have succeeded in
effecting this my just, if not Christian resolve, I swear that my
apparel shall be black, my apartments hung with the same gloomy
hue, my attendants shall wear mourning, and I will have no
company, but live in solitude; at every meal I will have these relics
present, which keep up the torment of my soul; this head, which
shall, without a voice, command me to revenge its injury; this
sword, on which I seem to see the yet streaming blood, shall, by
kindling mine, leave me no rest until I am avenged!'
"After speaking thus, her tears seemed to flow less incessantly, and
her sighs and complaints became more moderate. She then began
to arrange a journey to Rome, to obtain there from some powerful
personages, aid and protection against the murderer of her
husband, who still threatens her.
"Now, sirs, you will see what I have told you if you come in about
two hours from this time; if you are not moved and astonished by it,
either I have told my story ill, or your hearts must be of marble."
Here the mourning squire ceased speaking, and the pilgrims, even
without having seen Ruperta, were filled with wonder and
compassion for her case.
 CHAPTER XVII.
Anger is said to be a revolution of the blood about the heart, which
warms up at sight of the object which inflamed it, and sometimes
with the bare recollection of the offence. It hath for its final goal and
resting place, vengeance, which, when it is taken upon the offender
with or without reason, calms the ire. This would lead us to suppose
the beautiful Ruperta passionate and vindictive, and with so strong a
desire to be revenged upon her enemy, that even if she knew that
he was dead, her hatred would extend to his descendants, of whom
she would not wish to leave one alive, for the wrath of a woman is
boundless.
The hour came when the pilgrims were to see her, themselves
unseen. They saw her extremely lovely, with a long and flowing
white veil, which reached from her head to her feet, as she was
seated before a table, on which was placed the head of her
murdered lord in its silver case, the sword that had deprived him of
life, and a shirt, which was all stained with his blood.
All these melancholy memorials reawakened her anger, which
needed no arousing, for it never slept; she arose from her seat, and
putting her right hand upon the head, she began to renew the vow
of which the mourning squire had told them; showers of tears rained
from her eyes, enough to have bathed the sad relics in, sighs burst
from her heart, which filled the air far and near; to the usual form of
her vow she added words of more intense hatred, so that at times it
almost seemed as if fire instead of tears sparkled in her eyes, and
from her mouth proceeded smoke instead of sighs, such a slave was
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