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I. Revision of Basic Concepts

Random Experiment: An experiment whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty but has a well-
defined set of all possible outcomes.
Sample Space (S): The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
Sample Points: The individual elements of the sample space.
Event: A subset of the sample space.
Types of Events:
Simple/Elementary Event: An event with only one sample point.
Compound Event: An event with more than one sample point.
Equally Likely Events: Events where there is no reason to expect one to occur in preference to another
(e.g., getting a Head or a Tail on a fair coin toss).
Mutually Exclusive (or Disjoint) Events: Events that cannot happen at the same time. The occurrence
of one prevents the occurrence of the other.
Key Property: If A and B are mutually exclusive, their intersection is the empty set (A ∩ B = ∅).
They are also called incompatible events. Events that are not mutually exclusive are compatible.
Independent Events: The occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other. (e.g.,
tossing a coin and rolling a die).
Dependent Events: The occurrence of one event affects the probability of the other.
Exhaustive Events: A set of events where at least one of them must occur. Their union forms the entire
sample space.
Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive System: A set of events where:
1. They are all mutually exclusive (no two events have a common outcome).
2. Their union is the entire sample space.
Example: The set of all elementary events for a sample space is always mutually exclusive and
exhaustive.

II. Classical Definition of Probability

If a random experiment has 'n' mutually exclusive, equally likely, and exhaustive outcomes, and 'm' of these
outcomes are favorable to an event A, then the probability of A is:

Formula: P(A) = m / n = (Number of Favorable Outcomes) / (Total Number of Outcomes)

Properties of Probability:
The probability of any event A lies between 0 and 1, inclusive: 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
Certain Event: An event that is sure to happen. Its probability is 1.
Impossible Event: An event that cannot happen. Its probability is 0.
Complementary Event (A' or A-bar): The event that A does not happen.
Formula: P(A') = 1 - P(A) or P(A) + P(A') = 1.

III. Set Theory & Venn Diagrams in Probability

A ∪ B (A or B): At least one of the events A or B occurs.
A ∩ B (A and B): Both events A and B occur simultaneously.
A' ∩ B' (Neither A nor B): Neither event A nor event B occurs.
A ∩ B' (A but not B): Event A occurs, but event B does not.
Key Formulas (from Venn Diagrams):

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Addition Theorem (At least one): P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

Only A: P(A ∩ B') = P(A) - P(A ∩ B)
Only B: P(B ∩ A') = P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
Exactly One of A or B: P(A but not B) + P(B but not A) = P(A) + P(B) - 2 * P(A ∩ B)

IV. Independent vs. Mutually Exclusive Events

V. Standard Problems & Frameworks

Coins: For 'n' coins tossed, total outcomes = 2ⁿ.
Dice: For 'n' dice rolled, total outcomes = 6ⁿ.
Sum on 2 Dice: The number of ways to get a sum 'S' follows a pattern:
S=2 (1 way), S=3 (2 ways), S=4 (3 ways), S=5 (4 ways), S=6 (5 ways), S=7 (6 ways)
S=8 (5 ways), S=9 (4 ways), S=10 (3 ways), S=11 (2 ways), S=12 (1 way)
Sum on 3 Dice: The number of ways follows a symmetric pattern around the center (sums of 10 and 11).
Playing Cards (52-card deck):
Colors: 26 Red, 26 Black.
Suits (13 cards each):
Black: Spades (♠), Clubs (♣)
Red: Hearts (♥), Diamonds (♦)
Cards in each suit:
Number Cards (9): 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.
Face Cards (3): Jack, Queen, King.
Honor Card (1): Ace.
Leap Year Problem:
A leap year has 366 days = 52 full weeks + 2 extra days.
The 2 extra days can be (Sun, Mon), (Mon, Tue), ..., (Sat, Sun). Total 7 possibilities.
The probability of a leap year having 53 Sundays is 2/7 (favorable cases are (Sun, Mon) and (Sat, Sun)).

VI. Solved Examples

1. Problem: Probabilities of 3 mutually exclusive events are given in terms of 'p'. Find the valid range for 'p'.
Conditions:
1. Each individual probability must be between 0 and 1.
2. The sum of the probabilities must be ≤ 1 (since they are mutually exclusive events from a single
experiment).
Method: Solve the inequalities from all conditions and find their common intersection on a number line.
Result: p must lie in the interval [1/3, 1/2].
2. Problem: Probability of getting the same number on 3 rolled dice.
Total Outcomes: 6³ = 216.
Favorable Outcomes: Getting the same number means (1,1,1), (2,2,2), ..., (6,6,6). There are 6 favorable
outcomes.
Probability: 6 / 216 = 1/36.
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3. Problem: Probability that a triangle formed by 3 randomly chosen vertices of a regular hexagon is equilateral.
Experiment: Choosing 3 vertices out of 6.
Total Ways (Total Triangles): ⁶C₃ = 20.
Favorable Ways: In a regular hexagon, only 2 equilateral triangles can be formed (by connecting
alternate vertices).
Probability: 2 / 20 = 1/10.
4. Problem: Probability that 3 distinct numbers selected from the first 100 natural numbers are all divisible by
both 2 and 3.
Experiment: Choosing 3 numbers from 100.
Total Ways: ¹⁰⁰C₃.
Favorable Condition: A number divisible by both 2 and 3 is divisible by their LCM, which is 6.
Favorable Pool: Numbers from 1 to 100 that are multiples of 6. There are 16 such numbers (100 ÷ 6 ≈
16.67).
Favorable Ways: Choosing 3 numbers from this pool of 16. This is ¹⁶C₃.
Probability: (¹⁶C₃) / (¹⁰⁰C₃) = 4 / 1155.
5. Problem: From 21 tickets (numbered 1-21), 3 are drawn. Find the probability that the numbers are in an
Arithmetic Progression (AP).
Experiment: Choosing 3 tickets from 21.
Total Ways: ²¹C₃ = 1330.
Favorable Ways (Forming an AP): Count the number of groups of 3 that form an AP by fixing the
common difference (d).
d=1: (1,2,3), (2,3,4), ..., (19,20,21) -> 19 groups
d=2: (1,3,5), (2,4,6), ..., (17,19,21) -> 17 groups
d=3: (1,4,7), ..., (15,18,21) -> 15 groups
...
d=10: (1,11,21) -> 1 group
Total Favorable Groups: Sum of the odd numbers from 1 to 19, which is 10² = 100.
Probability: 100 / 1330 = 10/133.

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