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 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POLAR REGIONS

The polar regions have experienced some remarkable environmental changes in recent
decades, such as the Antarctic ozone hole, the loss of large amounts of sea ice from the
Arctic Ocean and major warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. The polar regions are also
predicted to warm more than any other region on Earth over the next century if greenhouse
gas concentrations continue to rise. Yet trying to separate natural climate variability from
anthropogenic forcing still presents many problems. This book presents a thorough review
of how the polar climates have changed over the last million years and sets recent changes
within the long-term perspective, as determined from ice and ocean sediment cores. The
approach taken is highly cross-disciplinary and the close links between the atmosphere,
ocean and ice at high latitudes are stressed. The volume will be invaluable for researchers
and advanced students in polar science, climatology, global change, meteorology, ocean-
ography and glaciology.

John T urner is a research scientist at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK,
where he leads a project investigating recent Antarctic climate change and how it may
change over the next century. He has had a long involvement with the Scientific Committee
on Antarctic Research (SCAR): he was the Chief Officer of the Physical Sciences Standing
Scientific Group from 2002 to 2006 and chaired the steering committee of the SCAR
programme on Antarctica and the Global Climate System from 2005 to 2008. He is the
co-author of Antarctic Meteorology and Climatology (1997) and Polar Lows: Mesoscale
Weather Systems in the Polar Regions (2003), both of which are published by Cambridge
University Press. He was awarded the International Journal of Climatology Prize of the
Royal Meteorological Society in 2005.
G areth J. M arshall is a climatologist at the British Antarctic Survey where he is the
Climate programme coordinator. He has worked at BAS since 1995 after completing his
PhD at the University of Cambridge. His research has included field work in both polar
regions and he has contributed to more than 50 scientific papers. Recently, he was a
corresponding author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
Assessment Report. He is also a member of the World Climate Research Programme
CLIVAR Southern Ocean panel, which addresses climate variability and predictability in
this region.
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POLAR
REGIONS

JOHN TURNER
British Antarctic Survey

AND

GARETH J. MARSHALL
British Antarctic Survey
 cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521850100

© John Turner and Gareth J. Marshall 2011

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2011

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data

Turner, J. (John)
Climate change in the polar regions / John Turner and Gareth J. Marshall.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-521-85010-0 (hardback)
1. Climatic changes – z Polar regions – History. 2. Meteorology – Polar regions – Observations.
3. Climatic changes – Environmental aspects – Polar regions. 4. Sea ice – Polar regions.
5. Global warming – Polar regions. I. Marshall, Gareth. II. Title.
QC903.2.P73T87 2011
551.6911–dc22
2010052384

ISBN 978-0-521-85010-0 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or

accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to
in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such
websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
 Contents

Preface page ix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The environment of the polar regions 1
1.2 The role of the polar regions in the global climate system 9
1.3 Possible implications of high latitude climate change 12
2 Polar climate data and models 16
2.1 Introduction 16
2.2 Instrumental observations 17
2.3 Meteorological analysis fields 28
2.4 Remotely sensed data 36
2.5 Proxy climate data 42
2.6 Models 51
3 The high latitude climates and mechanisms of change 61
3.1 Introduction 61
3.2 Factors influencing the broadscale climates of the polar regions 63
3.3 Processes of the high latitude climates 71
3.4 The mechanisms of high latitude climate change 80
3.5 Atmospheric circulation 114
3.6 Temperature 126
3.7 Cloud and precipitation 132
3.8 Sea ice 142
3.9 The ocean circulation 154
3.10 Concluding remarks 161
4 The last million years 162
4.1 Introduction 162
4.2 The Arctic 164
4.3 The Antarctic 181
4.4 Linking high latitude climate change in the two hemispheres 190

v
vi Contents

5 The Holocene 194

5.1 Introduction 194
5.2 Forcing of the climate system during the Holocene 197
5.3 Atmospheric circulation 202
5.4 Temperature 207
5.5 The ocean circulation 234
5.6 Sea ice and sea surface temperatures 238
5.7 Atmospheric gases and aerosols 245
5.8 The cryosphere, precipitation and sea level 247
5.9 Concluding remarks 254
6 The instrumental period 256
6.1 Introduction 256
6.2 The main meteorological elements 257
6.3 Changes in the atmospheric circulation 270
6.4 The ocean environment 280
6.5 Sea ice 289
6.6 Snow cover 299
6.7 Permafrost 307
6.8 Atmospheric gases and aerosols 315
6.9 Terrestrial ice and sea level 320
6.10 Attribution of recent changes 331
6.11 Concluding remarks 334
7 Predictions for the next 100 years 336
7.1 Introduction 336
7.2 Possible future greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the IPCC
models 337
7.3 Changes in the atmospheric circulation and the modes of climate
variability 340
7.4 The main meteorological elements 344
7.5 The ocean circulation and water masses 353
7.6 Sea ice 356
7.7 Seasonal snow cover and the terrestrial environment 361
7.8 Permafrost 362
7.9 Atmospheric gases and aerosols 364
7.10 Terrestrial ice, the ice shelves and sea level 366
7.11 Concluding remarks 372
8 Summary and future research needs 374
8.1 Introduction 374
8.2 Gaining improved understanding of past climate change 374
 Contents vii

8.3 Modelling the high latitude climate system 381

8.4 Data required 382
8.5 Concluding remarks 385
References 386
Index 428
 Preface

The last few years have seen an unprecedented level of interest in the climate of the polar
regions. The discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, the reduction in extent of Arctic sea ice,
the disintegration of floating ice shelves around the Antarctic and the high levels of aerosols
reaching the Arctic have all been reported extensively in the media. This has been coupled
with climate model predictions showing that the high latitude areas will warm more than any
other region on Earth over the next century if ‘greenhouse gas’ concentrations continue to
rise. Yet some have pointed to rapid climatic fluctuations that have taken place in the polar
regions over the last few centuries and millennia and questioned whether the recent changes
that we have seen are not simply a result of natural climate variability. Hence the time is right
for a reappraisal of our understanding of recent high latitude climate change in the context of
increasing anthropogenic influence on the Earth and our greater understanding of the
reasons for past climate variability.
This book seeks to assess the climatic and environmental changes that have taken place
over the last century and set these in the context of our understanding of natural climate
variability in the pre-industrial period. We will draw on many of the new climate data sets
that have become available in recent years and also make use of the results of modelling
experiments. The last few years have seen great advances in our ability to observe, monitor
and model the present and past polar climates. In particular, the International Polar Year of
2007–08 gave us an unprecedented amount of data from the two polar regions and increased
our understanding of the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and change at high
latitudes.
The record of in-situ meteorological measurements from observatories and research
stations extends back about a century in many parts of the Arctic and about 50 years in
the Antarctic. These observations provide us with the most accurate measurements of
atmospheric conditions, yet the early observations are widely separated in many areas,
with few observations from the ocean areas. However, from the mid 1970s an increasing
number of observations became available from polar-orbiting satellites, which allowed the
production of increasingly reliable atmospheric analyses of the high latitude areas. Over the
past few decades the historical archive of in-situ and satellite observations have been
reprocessed using current data assimilation schemes to produce so-called ‘reanalysis’ data

ix
x Preface

sets. These provide a particularly valuable source for investigation of climate variability and
change in the polar regions over approximately the last 30 years.
In the pre-instrumental period the most valuable data on climate variability comes from
analysis of chemical species and accumulation in ice cores drilled on high latitude ice sheets.
Annual layers and/or specific events, such as volcanic eruptions, can often be identified in
these cores, allowing the dating of the core. Many short cores covering a few years to a few
decades have been collected in the Arctic and Antarctic but there are far fewer longer cores
extending back several centuries or more. However, the Vostok, Dome C and Dome F cores
from East Antarctica and several long cores collected from the plateau of Greenland provide
extremely valuable records of climatic conditions extending back over one or more ice ages.
The proxy data described above provide us with a reasonable picture of changes in
atmospheric conditions in the past, although with decreasing resolution in the earlier part
of the record. However, even today we do not have a synoptic picture of the distribution of
water masses across the world’s ocean and of ocean circulation, so understanding oceanic
conditions in the past presents a number of difficulties. Nevertheless, analysis of ocean
sediment cores has provided key information on past oceanic conditions to complement the
palaeoclimatic atmospheric data.
Complementary to the climate observations from the polar regions that are used in
investigating high latitude climate change are atmospheric and coupled atmosphere–ocean
models. These have developed rapidly over the last couple of decades from relatively coarse
resolution atmosphere-only models, which were only able to simulate the broadest features of
the polar climates, to complex, high-resolution models capable of simulating the non-linear
interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Moreover, they have been
applied to the present-day climate, and conditions during previous climatic regimes. They
are the only tool that we have for predicting how the Earth’s climate will evolve in the future.
In this volume we have used the data discussed above to describe past and possible future
climate scenarios for the polar regions. The emphasis is on explaining the forcing mecha-
nisms behind the observed changes and the difficulties in differentiating natural climate
variability from anthropogenic effects. A priority is to integrate our understanding of the
atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric changes and to present the polar regions within the
context of Earth System Science studies.
The geographical focus is obviously the Arctic and Antarctic, but research has shown that
there is a close, but non-linear, coupling between the climates of the polar regions and lower
latitudes. For example, recent analysis of chemical species in Antarctic ice cores has shown
that signals of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are present in temperature and
precipitation data, but that the high latitude response varies between different ENSO events.
So, where appropriate, we will not limit our coverage to just the polar regions, as defined as
the areas poleward of the Arctic and Antarctic circles, but set the climatic changes of the
polar regions in a global context.
Regarding the time period that the book should cover in terms of the past, we will obviously
deal with the period when in-situ meteorological observations are available, approximately the
last 100 years. The Holocene, which covers approximately the last 11.7 kyr, had roughly the
 Preface xi

same solar forcing as today and the Mid Holocene warm period was when some of the ice
shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula disintegrated in a similar fashion to the way they have
collapsed in recent decades. However, the most dramatic climatic changes at high latitudes
have been the ice ages, and the latest Antarctic ice cores provide a unique record of such events
through a significant part of the Pleistocene. We therefore felt that it would be logical to cover
the period covered by the Dome C ice core and consider the last million years. In terms of
future changes, we will deal with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
scenarios considering the next 100 years.
As a practical note on timing within this book, for periods of more than 2000 years ago we
will use the ‘before present (BP)’ notation, where the present is taken as AD 1950; thus the
start of the Holocene will be indicated as 11.7 kyr BP.
In the first chapter we provide an introduction to the environments of the Arctic and
Antarctic and consider the role of the polar regions in the global climate system. Although
the book does not generally deal with the societal consequences of climate change, here we
provide a brief account of the possible implications of major changes to the high latitude
icecaps.
Chapter 2 is concerned with the data and the models that we have available to investigate
the past and present polar climates and how they will evolve in the future. We review the
availability and quality of the instrumental observations and assess the climatic information
that can be derived from ice cores and ocean sediment cores. We also review the reliability of
the meteorological reanalysis fields.
In Chapter 3 we consider the mechanisms that are responsible for variability and change
in the high latitude climates on a range of timescales and explain why the climates of the two
polar regions have their particular form. We deal with the radiation regime, ice/atmosphere
feedbacks, the impact of the different land–sea distributions and orography in the two
hemispheres and, in particular, the role of the Arctic Ocean compared with the Antarctic
continent. We also present some mean meteorological/cryospheric fields for the two areas
based on data from recent decades. These provide reference fields for the discussion on past
conditions and future predictions.
Chapter 4 discusses our understanding of climate change over the last one million years,
which is the most recent half of the Pleistocene. We describe the broadscale climate changes
associated with the different ice ages and examine some of the more recent episodes of major
change in detail, including the peak of the most recent ice age, the Last Glacial Maximum.
The Holocene is dealt with in Chapter 5. For this period we have much more detailed
climatic information as there is greater temporal resolution in the available ice and ocean
sediment cores. We consider our current knowledge of atmospheric and oceanic circulation,
along with changes in temperature, precipitation, sea ice and the ice sheets.
The instrumental period of the last 50–100 years is covered in Chapter 6. Over this period
increasingly sophisticated observations have been obtained of many aspects of the polar
environment and these are used to examine variability and change. We consider the main
meteorological elements, as well as the ocean environment, sea ice and the icecaps.
xii Preface

Although a great deal of atmospheric and cryospheric data are now available, a major gap in
our knowledge is still the oceans, where many records are short.
Chapter 7 examines the prospects for the evolution of the polar climates over the next 100
years. The atmospheric and oceanic predictions come from state-of-the-art climate models,
many of which were used in the production of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Such models
can also provide information on future changes in sea ice extent; however, prediction of
changes in the major ice sheets is still very difficult to quantify.
In Chapter 8 we summarise our current understanding of high latitude climate change and
consider future research and data collection needs.
Many people have provided assistance in the production of this book. We would
particularly like to thank Drs Dominic Hodgson, Liz Thomas, Hugh Venables and Eric
Wolff for reviewing sections of the book. The figures were prepared by Phoebe Allan, Emma
Critchey, Katherine Dolan, Tony Phillips and Eleanor Tomlinson. Penny Goodearl obtained
permission to use selected figures. Peter Fretwell provided statistics on the area and
elevation of the Antarctic continent.
 1
Introduction

1.1 The environment of the polar regions

The polar regions can be defined in a number of ways, based on geographical, topographic
and even political factors. However, geometrically, the Arctic and Antarctic are considered
as the areas of the Earth poleward of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles, which are located at
latitudes of 66° 33′ 39″ north and south of the Equator (see maps on the end papers). These
areas experience at least one day each year when the Sun does not set, and one day when the
Sun is always below the horizon. At the poles themselves there is only one sunrise and one
sunset each year, which occurs on the equinoxes of 21 September and 21 March. Together
the Arctic and Antarctic comprise about 8% of the surface area of the Earth.
The regions of perpetual summer sunlight and winter darkness are present because the
Earth is tilted away from the plane of its orbit around the Sun by 23° 27′, resulting in the high
latitude areas having periods when they are orientated away from or towards the Sun. The tilt
of the Earth’s axis changes over long periods of time (millennia), resulting in variations in
the latitude of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles. The change in the tilt, along with slow
variations in the Earth’s orbit about the Sun, alter the amount of solar radiation arriving at
different parts of the Earth, which is a major factor in long-term, millennial-scale climate
variability. This subject is covered in depth in Section 3.4.
The Arctic Circle runs through the North Atlantic, southern Greenland, northern Canada,
central Alaska, northern Russia and northern Fennoscandia. The Antarctic Circle by contrast
is primarily located over the Southern Ocean, only crossing the Antarctic continent on
the Antarctic Peninsula, and in the northern edges of Enderby Land, Wilkes Land and
George V Land.
In the polar regions the Sun always has a relatively low elevation during the summer,
never reaching more than about 23° above the horizon. The instantaneous amount of solar
radiation received at the top of the atmosphere is therefore quite small, and much less than
occurs in tropical latitudes where the Sun is nearly overhead.
A number of factors influence the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed by the surface
and is therefore available to heat the ground or ocean, or melt snow and ice. Although the
Sun is low in the sky in summer, the high latitude atmosphere is relatively clear (especially
in the Antarctic) with few suspended particles (aerosols) that can scatter or reflect the

1
2 Introduction

incoming radiation. The amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is also quite low,
especially on the Antarctic Plateau, so the amount of radiation absorbed by this gas is
very limited. However, a major factor in influencing the amount of radiation arriving at the
surface is the length of the period of sunlight. On the Antarctic Plateau the long period of
continuous daylight, coupled with the clear, frequently cloud-free atmosphere means that
this region receives more solar radiation than anywhere else on Earth. Nevertheless, the
lowest temperature ever recorded at the surface of the Earth was at Vostok Station (78.5° S,
106.9° E, 3488 m) high on the plateau.
Although large amounts of solar radiation can be received at the surface in summer, much
of this insolation is reflected back to space because of the high albedo (reflectivity) of the
snow and ice surfaces. Freshly fallen snow can have a very high albedo of 90%, but this
drops as the snow pack ages, typically reaching values of 80%. Exposed glacier ice (known
as blue ice) typically has an albedo of around 70%. Snow with dust particles on the surface
will have a lower albedo, and as snow melts, gradually exposing the rock or soil surface
below, the albedo will gradually drop to that of bare ground, which is typically 15–20%. The
Antarctic Plateau is therefore a unique location, receiving large amounts of solar radiation in
summer, most of which is reflected back to space, resulting in the lowest summer temper-
atures on Earth.
In the sea ice zone the surface consists of a mix of ice floes that typically have an albedo of
70–80% and open water with an albedo of 10–15%. So the fractional ice cover is critical in
determining the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed by the surface. A major difference
between the Arctic and Antarctic is the amount of multi-year sea ice (sea ice that has
survived one summer) that is present. In the Antarctic most sea ice melts by the late summer,
with only small amounts of ice persisting into the following winter along the coast of East
Antarctic and over the western Weddell Sea. In the Arctic, however, there is a higher
proportion of multi-year ice present.
During periods when solar radiation is received, a number of different ‘polar feedback’
mechanisms can come into play, which can amplify small environmental changes. For
example, in the case where the ocean is partially covered by sea ice, once the fractional
ice cover has dropped to a certain level, enough solar radiation may be received to warm the
upper layers of the ocean, resulting in the rapid melting of the remaining sea ice in a region.
This is often the case along the coast of Dronning Maud Land, on the eastern side of the
Weddell Sea, Antarctica, where there can be a rapid expansion of the coastal polynya
(the ice-free region next to the coast) during December. A similar positive feedback is
found over snow-covered land areas during the high latitude spring, where the snow can
rapidly retreat once enough bare ground is exposed and sufficient heat has been absorbed by
the surface. This takes place across northern Eurasia and results in extensive river runoff into
the Arctic Ocean.
As discussed in later chapters, many projections of future climate suggest that the largest
increases in near-surface air temperature will occur at high latitudes, possibly as a result of
feedback mechanisms. We will therefore return in later chapters to the question of whether
 1.1 The environment of the polar regions 3

such mechanisms are responsible for recent Arctic and Antarctic climate change, and the
role that they may play in the future.
During the long polar winter, environmental conditions are quite different from the
summer months. The lack of solar radiation, coupled with the relatively dry atmosphere
(especially in the Antarctic) results in rapid cooling near the Earth’s surface and the creation
of an atmospheric temperature inversion, where the temperature increases with height for
several hundreds of metres or more. The most pronounced temperature inversions are found
on the Antarctic Plateau, where the temperature difference between the surface and an
elevation of a few hundred metres can be in excess of 25 °C. Over the Arctic Ocean in winter
there is still a sizeable flux of heat from the ocean into the lowest layers of the atmosphere,
either through the sea ice or more often via the leads (the ice-free areas between the ice
floes). This limits the strength of the temperature inversion in these maritime areas.
This section has been concerned with climatic and environmental factors that are common
to both polar regions. However, in the next section we focus on some of the striking
differences in the climates of the Arctic and Antarctic that result from the markedly different
land/sea distributions and orographic conditions in the two polar regions.

1.1.1 The Arctic

The Arctic (see the front end paper) consists of the Arctic Ocean, a number of islands and
archipelagos, and the northern parts of North America, Greenland, Russia and Scandinavia.
The huge ice sheet of Greenland extends to over 3 km in height and contains about 3 ×106 km3
of ice. It has a major impact on the atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and its
climatological effects can be felt well into Europe. However, the rest of the orography of the
Arctic is relatively low, and there are extensive ocean areas around the Arctic, such as
the Greenland Sea, so that mid latitude weather systems can penetrate to high latitudes.
As maritime air masses move northwards and are cooled, extensive areas of cloud form,
influencing the radiation regime. The Arctic is therefore characterised by rather cloudy
conditions, although as the air is fairly cold it is unable to hold a great deal of water vapour,
so precipitation amounts tend to be relatively low. For example, Barrow, Alaska, only receives
about 115 mm of precipitation per year, compared with London, which on average gets almost
600 mm a year.
The proximity of the Arctic to major industrial centres in Europe and Eurasia means that
atmospheric pollutants, such as sulphates, can readily reach northern high latitudes. This
phenomenon, which is known as Arctic haze, is seasonal in nature with a peak in the spring
once the Sun returns after the long Arctic winter. The pollutants are apparent as a brownish
haze that can reduce the visibility to less than 30 km and the aerosols that make up Arctic
haze can have an impact on climate forcing, and also contaminate the fragile Arctic
ecosystems and food chains.
At the heart of the Arctic is the Arctic Ocean, which covers an area of 14.09 × 106 km2,
making it the smallest of the world’s oceans. It lies almost entirely within the Arctic Circle
4 Introduction

and is mostly surrounded by land, with its only outlets being the Bering Strait between
Alaska and Russia, the Davis Strait between Greenland and Canada, and the Denmark Strait
and the Norwegian Sea between Greenland and Europe. However, the only deep passage out
of the Arctic Ocean is the Fram Strait between Greenland and Spitsbergen, which has a
major influence on the exchange of water masses with the rest of the world’s oceans. The
ocean has an average depth of 3658 m off the continental shelf and the deepest point is the
Fram Basin at a depth of 4665 m. The Arctic Ocean has the widest continental shelf of all
the oceans. The Arctic Ocean is divided by the Lomonosov Ridge into two major basins,
consisting of the Eurasian Basin and the North American Basin, both of which have a depth
in excess of 4300 m.
The Arctic Ocean contains three primary water masses. In the near-surface layer, which is
up to 200 m thick, there is Polar Surface Water, above warm Atlantic Water, with Arctic
Ocean Deep Water below about 800 m. Polar Surface Water has a low salinity as a result of
the very large input of fresh water from the major river systems that issue into the Arctic
Ocean, such as the Lena, Yenisey and Mackenzie.
Sea ice is a major feature of the Arctic and it has a profound impact on the meteorology
and oceanography of the entire Arctic region. Sea ice forms when the upper layer of the
ocean freezes during the winter to form new or first-year ice. It is during late winter, around
the March/April period, that Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent of about 15 × 106
km2, covering most of the Arctic Ocean and extending into the neighbouring seas. During
the summer months there is extensive melting of sea ice and by September it has retreated to
cover about half the area of its late-winter peak. Multi-year sea ice can reach thicknesses of
several metres. In recent years there has been a well-publicised decrease in the amount of
Arctic sea ice, and climate projections for the next century suggest that the area covered by
sea ice will continue to shrink. This subject will be discussed in detail in Chapters 6 and 7.
The near-surface ocean currents and the motion of the sea ice within the Arctic Ocean are
essentially the same, and are characterised by the anticyclonic Beaufort Gyre poleward of
North America and the Transpolar Drift that extends from the northern coast of Siberia to the
Fram Strait and down the east coast of Greenland.
The land surrounding the Arctic Ocean is characterised by tundra, boreal forests, peat-
lands and permafrost (permanently frozen ground). The boreal forest or taiga consists of
coniferous trees and is located on the edges of the Arctic, with the northern limit roughly
following the July mean 13 °C isotherm. The forest edge therefore extends from roughly
68° N in the Brooks Range of Alaska to 58° N on the west coast of Hudson Bay. In Siberia
the tree limit is further south, some 500 km inland of the Siberian Sea.
North of the boreal forest is the treeless Arctic tundra, consisting of low shrubs, mosses
and lichens, which can exist in an environment with a short growing season. Although the
tundra has low species diversity, it supports large populations of wild and semi-domestic
animals. Figure 1.1 shows a tundra landscape in the Denali National Park, Alaska.
The tundra is characterised by persistent winter snow cover and frozen ground. Snow
depth is typically 30–40 cm, reflecting the limited capacity of the air to hold moisture and the
remoteness of many parts of the Arctic from open water that can supply moisture to the air
 1.1 The environment of the polar regions 5

Fig. 1.1 The tundra landscape in the Denali National Park, Alaska.

masses. During the short Arctic spring much of the snow cover melts, feeding the many
rivers that discharge fresh water into the Arctic Ocean.
Permafrost, as well as seasonally frozen ground, is found across much of the Arctic.
Permafrost consists of gravel and finer material that remains below the freezing point
throughout two or more consecutive years. This layer of permanently frozen subsoil can
be overlaid with unfrozen soil or organic material. When water saturates the upper surface,
bogs and ponds may form, providing moisture for plants. The presence of permafrost means
that there are no deep root systems in the vegetation of the Arctic tundra; however, a wide
variety of plants are still able to resist the cold conditions. Ice-rich permafrost is found
beneath about 80% of Alaska and it physically supports much of the state’s infrastructure
and natural ecosystems. Figure 1.2 illustrates an active ice wedge, which shows permafrost
visible at the surface.
Permafrost is present across almost a quarter of the Earth’s land area, with some
16.7 × 106 km2 being present in northern Russia and Scandinavia, and 10.2 × 106 km2 in
North America. Most of the Arctic islands also contain permafrost. The thickness of
permafrost varies from about 1500 m in some parts of Siberia and almost 750 m in northern
Alaska, to only a few metres on the edge of the Arctic.
A major difference between the Arctic and Antarctic is that the Arctic is home to many
indigenous peoples, while the Antarctic is only occupied by scientists and tourists who visit
the continent for periods of days or weeks, up to several years. In the north, Inuit, Saami,
Athapaskans, Nenets and other peoples have followed a traditional way of life for gener-
ations, often subsisting by hunting on land or through fishing. Many of the activities of these
6 Introduction

Fig. 1.2 An active ice wedge exposed by hydraulic trenching at the northwest arm of Kaminak Lake,
Kivalliq, Nunavut, Canada. (Photograph courtesy of Dr William W. Shilts.)

peoples are very dependent on the climate and, as discussed below, climate change in the
future may have a radical impact on their way of life.

1.1.2 The Antarctic

Politically, the Antarctic is defined as the area south of 60° S and it includes the Antarctic
continent, a number of the sub-Antarctic islands and a large part of the Southern Ocean
(see back end paper).
 1.1 The environment of the polar regions 7

The Antarctic continent is about 40% larger than the USA, covering an area of 13.6 × 106
km2, which is about 10% of the land surface of the Earth. This figure includes the area of the
ice sheet, the floating ice shelves and the areas of fast ice (sea ice frozen along the coast).
The continent is dominated by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which contains around 30 × 106
km3 of ice or about 70% of the world’s fresh water. The Antarctic has the highest mean
elevation of any continent on Earth, and reaches a maximum elevation of over 4000 m in
East Antarctica.
The ice sheet is made up of three distinct morphological zones, consisting of East
Antarctica (covering an area of 9.90 × 106 km2), West Antarctica (1.96 × 106 km2) and the
Antarctic Peninsula (0.39 × 106 km2). The orography rises very rapidly inland from the
coast and the continent has a domed profile, with much of it being above 2000 m in
elevation.
The high plateau of East Antarctica is where the lowest recorded temperature on Earth has
been measured. At the Russian Vostok Station on 21 July 1983 the temperature dropped
to −89.2 °C, although as parts of the continent are at an even higher elevation it is not
inconceivable that a near-surface temperature several degrees colder might one day be
measured in the Antarctic. The extremely low temperature occurred at Vostok because of
the very high elevation, the lack of cloud and water vapour in the atmosphere, and the
isolation of the region from the relatively warm maritime air masses found over the Southern
Ocean. The high plateau of East Antarctica is located slightly away from the South Pole and
this has climatological implications for the atmospheric circulation over the Southern
Ocean.
The very cold temperatures in the interior of the Antarctic, coupled with its isolation from
warm, moist air masses mean that precipitation amounts here are very low, with only about
50 mm water equivalent falling per year. The Antarctic is therefore a desert and the driest
continent on Earth. But the low temperatures mean that there is very little evaporation and
sublimation, so that even this small amount of precipitation builds up year by year to form
the ice sheet.
West Antarctica is lower than East Antarctica, with a mean elevation of 1119 m. However,
some areas do reach more than 2000 m in height, with exposed mountain peaks rising above
the ice sheet to more than 4000 m. East and West Antarctica are separated by the Trans-
antarctic Mountains, which extend from Victoria Land to the Ronne Ice Shelf and rise to a
maximum height of 4528 m.
The Antarctic Peninsula is the only part of the continent that extends a significant way
northwards from the main ice sheet. It is a narrow mountainous region with an average width
of 70 km and a mean height of 911 m. The northern tip of the peninsula is close to 63° S, so
that this barrier has a major influence on the oceanic and atmospheric circulations of the high
southern latitudes.
In the Antarctic coastal region temperatures are much less extreme than on the plateau,
although at most of the coastal stations temperatures rarely rise above freezing point, even in
summer. The highest temperatures on the continent are found on the western side of the
8 Introduction

Fig 1.3 A photograph of the edge of part of the Larsen B Ice Shelf before its disintegration.

Antarctic Peninsula where there is a prevailing northwesterly wind, and here temperatures
can rise several degrees above freezing during the summer months.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet has a maximum thickness of about 4700 m and this huge mass of
ice gradually flows down towards the edge of the continent, moving fastest in a number of
ice streams that travel at speeds of up to 500 m per year. Once the ice streams reach the edge
of the continent they either calve into icebergs, which move northwards, or start to float on
the ocean as ice shelves. The ice shelves constitute 11% of the total area of the Antarctic,
with the two largest shelves being the Ronne-Filchner and the Ross Ice Shelves, which have
areas of 0.53 × 106 km2 and 0.50 × 106 km2 respectively. The ice shelves are several
hundreds of metres thick and the ocean areas under them are important for the formation
of cold, dense Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which is discussed in Section 1.2.
Figure 1.3 shows part of the Larsen B Ice Shelf before its disintegration.
The Antarctic continent is surrounded by the sea ice zone where, by late winter, the ice
covers an average area of 19 × 106 km2, which is more than the area of the continent itself.
At this time of year the northern ice edge is close to 60° S around most of the continent, and
near 55° S to the north of the Weddell Sea. Unlike the Arctic, most of the Antarctic sea ice
melts during the summer so that by autumn it only covers an area of about 3 × 106 km2. Most
Antarctic sea ice is therefore first-year ice, with the largest area of multi-year ice being over
the western Weddell Sea. Consequently most sea ice around the continent is relatively thin,
with an average thickness of about 1–2 m.
Permafrost is much less extensive in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, because of
the very large area covered by the ice sheet. However, across parts of the Antarctic Peninsula
 1.2 The role of the polar regions 9

and on the sub-Antarctic islands there are extensive areas that are free of ice and snow during
the summer months. Here permafrost and seasonally frozen ground are significant features
of the environment and they are important in the support of terrestrial ecosystems.
Permafrost is also found in the McMurdo Dry Valleys and along the narrow coastal zone
of East Antarctica. The Dry Valleys are a particularly interesting area where liquid water is
rare, yet there are extensive ground ice glacial sediments that may be millions of years old.
Permafrost is also found under the Antarctic Ice Sheet itself.
The major societal difference between the Arctic and Antarctic is the lack of indigenous
peoples in the south. Here the only year-round residents are scientists who work on the
research stations. Typically only a few hundred scientists overwinter on the stations, but
this number swells to several thousand during the summer Antarctic season. In recent years
there has been a very large increase in the number of tourists visiting the continent, either by
cruise ship or flying to the Antarctic from South America. The International Association of
Antarctic Tour Operators, who aim to promote safe and environmentally responsible
private-sector travel to the Antarctic, reports that during the 2006–07 Antarctic summer
29 530 tourists visited the continent. This compares with only 6000 in the early 1990s. Such
a huge increase in the number of tourists visiting the continent, and the possibility of these
numbers increasing markedly in the coming years, will inevitably put pressure on the fragile
environment of the continent.

1.2 The role of the polar regions in the global climate system
The global climate system is driven by solar radiation, most of which on an annual basis
arrives at low latitudes. Over the year as a whole the Equator receives about five times
as much radiation as the poles, so creating a large Equator to pole temperature difference.
The atmospheric and oceanic circulations respond to this large horizontal temperature
gradient by transporting heat polewards. In fact the climate system can be regarded as an
engine, with the low latitude areas being the heat source and the polar regions the heat
sink.
In the summer, when the Sun is above the horizon for long periods, the polar regions
receive more solar radiation than the tropics, but the highly reflective ice- and snow-covered
surfaces reflect much of this radiation back to space, aided by the relatively cloud-free
atmosphere that also contains little water vapour. This is one of the important feedback
mechanisms operating in the polar regions where a cooling can be enhanced much more than
over the unfrozen ocean or bare ground.
Large parts of the Northern Hemisphere are affected by seasonal snow cover that can
respond rapidly to changes in temperature, so they are very sensitive to climatic changes. By
contrast, the Antarctic continent is covered by a large ice sheet that has an extent and albedo
that is relatively unchanging on the scale of decades and centuries. It is therefore the ocean
areas around the Antarctic and the coastal regions of the continent that are the most sensitive
to climatic variability and change on shorter timescales.
10 Introduction

Both the atmosphere and ocean play major roles in the poleward flux of heat, with the
atmosphere being responsible for 60% of the heat flux, and the ocean the remaining 40%. In
the atmosphere, heat is transported by both transient eddies (depressions) and the mean flow.
The depressions carry warm air poleward on their eastern sides and cold air towards lower
latitudes on their western flanks. The atmosphere is able to respond relatively quickly to
changes in the high or low latitude heating rates, with storm tracks and the mean flow
changing on scales from days to years.
The contrasting orography of the two polar regions is very important in prescribing the
atmospheric and oceanic circulations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The
Antarctic continent is located close to the pole, with few other major orographic features
being present in the Southern Hemisphere. The mean atmospheric flow and ocean currents
are therefore very zonal (east–west) in nature. For example, the Antarctic Circumpolar
Current (ACC), which is one of the major oceanographic features of the Southern Ocean,
can flow unrestricted around the continent, isolating the high latitude areas from more
temperate mid and low latitude surface waters. This has only been the case since about 30
million years ago when the Drake Passage, which connects the South Atlantic Ocean to the
South Pacific Ocean, opened up. Prior to that time the ocean currents had more of a
meridional component that allowed greater penetration poleward of more temperate water
masses.
The orography of the Northern Hemisphere is dominated by the major ice sheet of
Greenland and the mountain ranges of the Himalayas and the Rocky Mountains. This
produces a larger meridional component to the atmospheric flow than is found in the
Southern Hemisphere, giving a more pronounced exchange of air masses between
the Arctic and lower latitudes than occurs around Antarctica. The effects of the large land
masses on the near-surface ocean currents are even more pronounced. Ocean currents, such
as the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current system, bring warm waters to a large part of the
eastern subpolar North Atlantic, and into the Nordic Seas. This current transports more
warm water to higher latitudes than in any other ocean and influences the sea ice distribution
in the Arctic Ocean.
The large Antarctic Ice Sheet plays a central role in determining the atmospheric
circulation of the high southern latitudes. The intense surface cooling that occurs on the
high Antarctic Plateau drives a persistent downslope, katabatic flow that brings cold surface
air down to the coastal region. This flow plays a very important part in shaping the high
latitude circulation of the Southern Hemisphere, and its influence extends into mid latitudes.
The global thermohaline circulation (THC) is the ocean system that links the major
oceans of the world (Fig. 1.4). It is driven by differences in the density of sea water,
which in turn is controlled by temperature and salinity. The polar regions are closely coupled
to the rest of the climate system via the THC, with the system providing a direct link between
the Arctic and Antarctic. The seas around the Antarctic are particularly important because of
the production of AABW, which is the densest water mass found in the oceans. AABW is
formed by deep winter convection in the Antarctic coastal region, particularly in the Weddell
and Ross Seas. The water mass is formed as cold air from the Antarctic rapidly cools the
 1.2 The role of the polar regions 11

Fig. 1.4 A schematic illustrating the global thermohaline circulation. (After W. Broecker, modified
by E. Maier-Reimer.)

surface waters, promoting downward convection. Brine rejection during the formation of
sea ice on the ocean surface is also very important, as is melting under the ice shelves.
AABW flows out into the world’s oceans and is found below 4000 m in all the ocean basins.
As can be seen in Fig. 1.4, AABW flows northwards in the Atlantic Ocean, reaching the
Arctic, where it rises and releases heat into the atmosphere. From the above it can be
appreciated that changes in Antarctic climate that might affect ice shelves, sea ice production
and atmospheric circulation could have implications for the global ocean system.
Changes in ocean conditions in the Arctic can also have widespread implications since the
North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) provides a means of linking high
and low northern latitudes. For example, ocean salinity anomalies in the central Arctic have
been shown to propagate into the Greenland Sea, where they can cause major modifications
to ocean stratification, which in turn can affect conditions further south.
A further important part that the polar oceans play in the global climate system is via their
role in the carbon cycle. Carbon can be transferred in both directions between the atmos-
phere and the ocean, but at high latitudes the low sea surface temperatures favour the uptake
of carbon dioxide. The Southern Ocean is a major sink of CO2 with the THC transporting the
dense carbon-rich water to the deeper layers of the ocean.
While the atmosphere can respond very rapidly to changes in heating rates, the ocean
responds more slowly. The circulation of the upper layers can change over months to years,
but the deep ocean and the THC requires decades to centuries to respond.
The Arctic and, to a much lesser extent, the sub-Antarctic islands play a further important
part in the global climate system through their role as sources and sinks of important
12 Introduction

greenhouse gases, which are held in the permafrost or seasonally frozen ground. The frozen
ground of the Arctic tundra and taiga contains methane (CH4), ozone (O3) and carbon
dioxide (CO2). In fact these areas contain one third of the world’s soil-bound carbon and the
ground can be a source or sink of such gases. When permafrost melts, it releases carbon into
the atmosphere, and can contribute to the global increase in greenhouse gases.

1.3 Possible implications of high latitude climate change

1.3.1 Introduction
If greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase over the next century near-surface air
temperatures are expected to rise more in the polar regions than in any other part of the Earth
(see Section 7.4). This will have serious implications for the cryosphere, oceanic and
atmospheric circulations, the marine and terrestrial environments and the indigenous peo-
ples of the Arctic. In this section we consider how major climatic changes may have an
impact on the high latitude environment and conditions at low latitudes.
The Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets respectively contain 90% and 9% of the
world’s glacier ice. If both these ice sheets melted completely they would respectively
contribute ~60 m and ~6 m to sea level rise (figures from the US National Snow and Ice Data
Center). The central parts of the Antarctic Plateau and Greenland Ice Sheet are always
extremely cold, so increases of temperature of several degrees or more will not result in any
melting at these locations. So major disintegrations of these ice sheets are unlikely to occur,
even on the scale of centuries, although melting will contribute to sea level rise. However,
around the peripheral parts of Greenland and the Antarctic temperatures can be close to
freezing point, making them very sensitive to small increases in temperature. In addition,
changes in water masses flowing under the ice shelves and tide water glaciers may result in
increased basal melt. Although some melting may take place in these regions, a major
concern is the impact on the flow velocity of the ice streams that drain from the interior of the
ice sheets, which may result in much more significant discharge of ice into the ocean.
Sea level is currently rising at around 3 mm a year, much faster than the average rate of
1 mm per year that has taken place over the last 5000 years. Predictions of sea level rise for
the next century are discussed in Section 7.10. These are computed from the expected
thermal expansion of the ocean as ocean temperatures rise, changes in river discharge into
the ocean, and melting of mid latitude glaciers. However, these predictions do not take into
account dynamic discharge of ice from the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. If
sea level continues to rise at its present rate, or at an even greater level, it will pose a very
significant problem for low-lying areas across the world.

1.3.2 The Arctic

In recent decades there have been major changes in the Arctic environment, with rising near-
surface air temperatures leading to large decreases in perennial sea ice extent, a reduction in
 1.3 Implications of high latitude climate change 13

the amount of snow cover, melting of permafrost and decreases in river and lake ice extent.
Melting of glaciers in many parts of the Arctic is contributing to rising sea levels worldwide,
while in areas such as Alaska, loss of glacier ice can have pronounced regional effects through
the contribution of their runoff to ocean currents and marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska
and Bering Sea. Such changes have been reported extensively in the scientific literature and
the popular press, but have also resulted in pervasive reports by indigenous Arctic commun-
ities. These peoples of the high latitude region have reported warmer and increasingly variable
weather, and also changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, which have had an impact on
their way of life. If, as predicted, temperatures continue to rise in the Arctic, possibly at an
accelerated rate, we can expect to see an amplification of these changes in the coming decades.
Many climate projections for the next century suggest that there will be a marked decrease
in the extent of Arctic sea ice. While this will not affect sea level directly as the ice is already
floating, there may be changes to the thermohaline circulation because of the freshening of
the waters in the upper layer of the ocean, since there will be less brine rejection through the
formation of sea ice. Sea ice retreat also allows larger storm surges to develop in areas of
greater open water, increasing erosion through greater wave activity.
Although loss of Arctic sea ice could have serious implications for the ocean circulation, there
could be some benefits in terms of navigation around the northern parts of Russia and Canada.
With the longer ice-free summer season there could be substantial benefits to marine transport
and offshore gas and oil operations, which could have major implications for international trade.
As discussed earlier, any melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has the potential to raise sea
level. But it has also been suggested that this flux of fresh water into the North Atlantic could
have an impact on the thermohaline circulation, possibly weakening the Gulf Stream and
North Atlantic Drift. This has the potential to seriously affect the climate of northern Europe,
possibly lowering surface temperatures by several degrees. The possibility that European
temperatures could drop in a world that is generally warming because of increasing green-
house gases has received wide publicity, and is discussed in more detail in Chapter 7.
With rising temperatures there will be a northward shift of the climatic zones with a
poleward extension of the boreal forests and the tree line. This will result in a transformation
of Arctic landscapes, with the northern edge of the boreal forest advancing into the tundra.
But in areas such as Alaska there are fears of a loss in the moisture needed for forest growth,
along with insect-induced tree mortality, increased risk of large fires and changes to the
reproduction of some trees, such as white spruce.
Loss of permafrost in the Arctic is already having a profound effect on the environment
because of the severe damage that can be caused to buildings and infrastructure that rely on it
to provide solid foundations. Oil pipelines running across areas of permafrost have frac-
tured, resulting in significant pollution and environmental damage. The Trans-Alaska
Pipeline, which runs for almost 1300 km across Alaska, was a hugely expensive enterprise,
but breaks in the pipeline and other repair costs due to melting permafrost could become
very significant in the future. The short-term risk of disruption to operations of the Trans-
Alaska Pipeline is judged to be small, although costly increases in maintenance due to
14 Introduction

increased ground instability are likely. We can expect to see increases in such potentially
damaging slumping of land in the coming decades if temperatures continue to rise.
Further thawing and melting of permafrost are likely to bring destruction of trees and loss
of boreal forests, the release of water and the expansion of lakes, grasslands and wetlands.
This will result in changes to habitats and ecosystems, such as loss of habitat for terrestrial
birds and mammals such as caribou. But there will also be additional habitat for aquatic birds
and mammals.
Loss of permafrost will also result in increased erosion and soil instability, especially on
the coast and along the banks of rivers. This could result in the blocking of streams that are
important for salmon spawning. There could also be increased occurrence of landslides and
development of talik (a year-round thawed layer of what was formerly permafrost), and
increased water table depth.
The melting of Arctic permafrost also has serious implications for the carbon cycle and
the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In the past, permafrost has been a sink of
carbon, which is locked into the frozen ground. However, with melting and the resulting
warmer soils, there could be an increase in the speed of decomposition and the release of
CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere.

1.3.3 The Antarctic

As discussed in Section 6.2 the pattern of climate change across the Antarctic in recent
decades has been complex with major surface warmings observed around the Antarctic
Peninsula and into West Antarctica, but little indication of statistically significant changes
across the rest of the continent. However, as discussed in Section 7.4, over the next century
the majority of climate models predict warming across most of the Antarctic if greenhouse
gas concentrations continue to rise. The largest surface changes are expected to occur over
the Southern Ocean as sea ice extent decreases. As discussed earlier, the Antarctic coastal
region is one of the primary areas for the production of AABW, the densest water mass
found in the world’s oceans. With the production of less sea ice being likely over the next
century there is concern there may be major implications for the ocean circulation.
Loss of sea ice around the Antarctic could also cause large-scale changes in marine
ecosystems, including threats to populations of marine mammals, such as penguins and
seals. Of the six species of Antarctic seal, four breed on the sea ice during spring and they
may be affected by a large reduction in sea ice extent.
On the continent itself many animals and plant species require rather specific climatic
conditions in which to flourish, with temperature and the amount of liquid precipitation
being particularly important, although the level of UV-B (290–320 nm wavelength) radia-
tion is also a significant factor. The amount of UV-B radiation received in the spring has
increased markedly in recent years with the appearance of the Antarctic ozone hole, with
consequent impact on the biota.
Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the terrestrial biota of the Antarctic.
Studies have suggested that increasing temperatures and greater water availability could
 1.3 Implications of high latitude climate change 15

extend the active season, increase development rates and reduce the life cycle duration.
In addition, there could be altered distribution of species and exotic colonisation.
The rapid warming on the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 50 years has already resulted
in some of these impacts becoming apparent, such as an increase in the life cycle of the
South Georgia diving beetle in response to higher lake temperatures, increases in population
numbers and changes in range of native Antarctic flowering plants (Deschampsia antarctica
and Colobanthus quitensis) and the decrease in number of Adélie penguins.
As discussed earlier, it is very unlikely that there will be a major disintegration of the
Antarctic Ice Sheet during the next few centuries; however, some parts of the Antarctic have
shown rapid glaciological changes over the last few years, indicating a sensitivity to climatic
factors. In particular, there is extensive research taking place into the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet (WAIS), much of which is grounded below sea level. A complete loss of the WAIS
would result in a 5 m sea level rise so there is obvious concern over the disintegration of even
a small part of the ice sheet. Satellite data have recently revealed a significant thinning of part
of the WAIS in the region of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (75° S, 105° W). This area
includes Pine Island Glacier, the largest glacier in West Antarctica, which is up to 2500 m
thick and is grounded over 1500 m below sea level. In the 8 years from 1992 the glacier
retreated inland by over 5 km with the loss of 31 km3 of ice. The exact reasons for the loss of
ice from the Pine Island Glacier at this time are not understood, although regional oceanic
water mass changes under the ice are believed to have played an important role. However, if
the present rate of thinning continues it is thought that the whole Pine Island Glacier could be
lost to the ocean within a few hundred years. An important research target must be to
understand why this glacier is currently shrinking, whether this is a result of anthropogenic
activity and whether in a warming world other glaciers could start to accelerate and drain
more ice from the interior of the WAIS with consequent impacts on sea level.
Over the next century it is predicted that there will be greater precipitation over the
Antarctic, offsetting to a small extent sea level rise. However, this is expected to be a less
important factor in net sea level change than greater ice discharge into the Southern Ocean
from accelerating glaciers along the coast of West Antarctica.
The loss of ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula in recent years has often been
reported and attributed to human activity. There is certainly evidence that the warming
during the summer on the eastern side of the peninsula is at least in part a result of
anthropogenically forced atmospheric circulation changes, in particular the loss of strato-
spheric ozone. If greenhouse gas levels continue to increase we may well see further loss of
ice shelves in this region. Of course ice shelves are already floating on the ocean and their
loss does not result in a change in sea level. However, there is evidence from the Antarctic
Peninsula that glaciers flowing into the ice shelves accelerate once the shelves have
disappeared, so contributing to sea level rise.
The water masses under the ice shelves are important for the production of AABW, which is
a major element of the global thermohaline circulation. Thus, if there was a significant loss of
ice shelves around the continent in a general warming environment, changes occurring in the
Antarctic coastal region have the potential to influence conditions as far away as the Arctic.
 2
Polar climate data and models

2.1 Introduction
In this chapter we describe the main types of data available for the study of climate change
within the polar regions. In comparison with most other regions of the Earth the time-series
of ‘traditional’, in-situ instrumental observations is relatively short, particularly in
Antarctica where most stations have only been operating for about 50 years. With short
records it is more difficult to determine whether recent trends are significant, particularly
for regions where there is high natural climate variability, such as the Antarctic Peninsula.
One way of extending climate records is to use ‘proxy’ climate data; for example, the
commercial whaling expeditions in both the Arctic and Antarctic provide historical
data about the position of the sea ice edge, where the greatest amount of hunting took
place.
The inhospitable nature of the polar regions means that conducting science in such areas
can be very expensive. Thus, there are relatively few surface meteorological stations
compared with the mid latitude and tropical areas. This is illustrated in Fig. 2.1, which
shows the coverage of surface, ship and aircraft observations assimilated into the European
Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model at 00 GMT 12 July 2010. In
recent years advances in technology have allowed the deployment of autonomous automatic
weather stations (AWSs) and these are particularly useful in the polar regions as they can be
sited in very remote locations. The majority of the synoptic reports in Antarctica situated
away from the coast are from such AWSs.
Data availability from the polar regions increased markedly with the advent of space-
borne remote sensing systems, which first became operational in the late 1960s and early
1970s. Early instruments provided relatively coarse resolution images, which were used for
mapping and initial studies of weather systems over the Arctic and Southern Ocean. Today
there are many types of instruments available that can provide data on a large number of
geophysical parameters for use in meteorological and glaciological studies. The former are
assimilated into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and the availability of
remotely sensed data in previously data-sparse regions has dramatically improved the
accuracy of weather forecasts at high latitudes. Long time series of the NWP model data
using stable assimilation and forecast schemes, called a reanalysis, now comprise one of the

16
 2.2 Instrumental observations 17

Fig. 2.1 Geographical coverage of meteorological observations available at 00 GMT 12 July 2010.
Synoptic reports are shown as mid-grey dots, ship reports in light grey and aircraft reports in black.

key climatological research tools in the polar regions: they provide spatial fields of many
meteorological parameters at multiple heights on a regular grid.
One unique data source that the polar regions have when considering long-term climate
change is the proxy climate data contained within the ice sheets and icecaps. The European
Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, encom-
passes ~750 kyr and contains records of how the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse
gases CO2 and CH4 have varied with temperature through the last eight glacial cycles.
In Greenland the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) core contains ice deposited as
snow as far back as 123 kyr BP. Oceanic sediment cores also provide important historical
climate data, including proxies for the extent of sea ice.

2.2 Instrumental observations

2.2.1 Introduction
Meteorological measurements in the Arctic and Antarctic were first made during the many
national expeditions to the two polar regions, which began during the nineteenth century
(see Serreze and Barry, 2005 and King and Turner, 1997 for summaries of the early
meteorological records in the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively). More systematic data
gathering required international cooperation, which led to the first International Polar Year
(IPY) in 1882–83, in which 12 stations were established in the Arctic (Fig. 2.2), while in the
Southern Hemisphere a small number were located on sub-Antarctic islands. Today, data
from both manned stations and an increasing number of AWSs, including a network
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comparés aux autres œuvres du Tintoret, ils ne sont guère que de
larges ébauches destinées à produire, dans un certain degré
d'ombre, l'effet de tableaux achevés. Ce sont des peintures dans le
genre des décors, en différant par l'effet recherché qui est non pas
de représenter une scène de nature, mais bien un tableau parfait. Il
n'en existe pas d autre en ce genre, aucun grand peintre n'ayant, à
ma connaissance, jamais consenti à travailler pour une pièce
plongée dans une obscurité complète. Nul autre que le Tintoret n'eût
voulu entreprendre cette tâche. Félicitons-nous de ce qu'il y ait
consenti, car dans cette magnifique peinture de théâtre, nous
trouvons des exemples merveilleux d'effets que n'auraient pu
produire des œuvres plus achevées. La nécessité d'indiquer
beaucoup de choses par quelques touches tient l'esprit de Tartiste
perpétuellement en haleine pendant que la rapidité de l'exécution
empêche la fatigue ; on ne trouve, dans aucune de ses œuvres, une
puissance aussi considérable. D'autre part, la peinture, par sa
rapidité et sa violence de touches est rendue plus apte à souffrir de
la sécheresse ou de l'humidité et, comme ces murs ont été
continuellement inondés de pluie et que le peu de soleil qui y
pénètre tombe droit sur l'une ou l'autre toile, elle ne sont plus que le
fantôme de ce qu'elles furent, et ces restes d'une peinture abrupte
ne sont pas faits pour attirer l'attention du public. Il y a vingt ou
trente ans, on entreprit de les retoucher, mais l'homme qui fut
chargé de cette tâche mourut providentiellement alors qu'un seul
tableau était abîmé. J'ai trouvé sur un autre tableau des traces de
son travail, mais elles sont trop légères pour être malfaisantes : les
autres toiles apparaissent indemnes. Bien que, comparées aux
autres œuvres du maître, celles-ci soient toutes très théâtrales
d'exécution, il y a entre elles de grandes différences de fini et, chose
curieuse, quelques-unes des pein 
 INDEX VÉNITIEN aSy tures des plafonds et d'autres,
placées dans les endroits les plus sombres, sont presque
complètement finies, taudis que VAgonie au jardin qui est une des
mieux éclairées dans la salle du haut, semble avoir été peinte en une
couple d'heures, avec un balai, en guise de pinceau. Je vais décrire
les tableaux par groupes. Le premier groupe est sur les murs de la
salle du rez-de-chaussée. 1. L'Annonciation. — Ce tableau, qui
frappe tout dabord les veux, représente dignement son groupe,
l'exécution en étant portée au plus haut degré de hardiesse. Ce
tableau est si connu qu'il n'a pas besoin d'être décrit, sauf un ou
deux points à sio-naler : la figure de la Vierge est très désagréable
et donne au spectateur l'impression d'une femme de trente ans qui
n'a jamais été jolie. Si ce visage n'a pas été retouché, c'est la
première fois que j'ai vu Tintoret manquer un effet voulu par lui, car,
lorsqu'on s'approche, le visage devient jeune et agréable et
n'exprime plus que la surprise au lieu de la souffrance et de la
crainte qu'il exprimait à distance. Je n'ai pu l'examiner d'assez près
pour voir s'il a été retouché ; c'est bien la peinture du Tintoret, un
peu dure peut-être, mais comme le tableau porte des retouches
incontestables, il est possible que quelque changement de liones,
supposées éteintes, ait dénaturé l'expression du visage vu à
distance. Une de ces retouches évidentes est la couleur écarlate du
vêtement de la Vierge ; il est lourd et inanimé. Une retouche encore
plus terrible est la bande de ciel vue dans la porte par où pénètre
l'ange : primitivement d'un jaune doré comme le ciel du fond, à
gauche, ce ciel a été recouvert, par un restaurateur imbécile, d'un
bleu blanchâtre qui le fait ressembler à un morceau du mur. Par
bonheur, on n'a pas touché aux ailes noires de l'Ange, d'où dépend
l'impression du tableau. Cet ange, et le groupe de chérubins qui
volent au-dessus de lui, forment une chaîne ondulée dont le pigeon
représentant le Saint-Esprit domine le centre. 2. Adoration des
Mages. — Le tableau le plus achevé de l'école Saint-Roch, à part la
Crucifixion, et peut-être le plus charmant de tous. Il réunit toutes les
sources de jouissances que peut posséder un tableau : la haute
élévation du principal sujet, unie au soin de plus humbles détails
dans les imitants pittoresques ; la dignité des gens de haut rang
opposée à la simplicité du vulgaire ; la paisible sérénité de la vie des
champs contrastant avec
 a88 INDEX VENITIEN la turbulence d'une troupe de gens à
cheval et avec la grandeur spirituelle des anges. L'idée d'avoir fait de
deux colombes le principal point lumineux sur le devant du tableau,
pour rappeler au spectateur la pauvreté de la mère dont l'Enfant
reçoit les offrandes, et l'adoration des trois monarques, est une des
inspirations de maître du Tintoret ; toute cette scène est conçue
dans sa meilleure manière. Rien ne peut être à la fois plus humble et
plus dio-ne que la tenue des Rois et une douce impression de réalité
est répandue sur l'ensemble de l'épisode par le geste de la Madone,
admirant le vase d'or qui a été déposé devant le Christ, geste si
naturel et si simple qu'il ne lui enlève rien de sa noblesse. Comme
pour illustrer le guide qui amena les Mages de l'Orient, tout le
tableau n'est qu'une immense étoile dont le Christ est le centre :
tous les personnages et jusqu'aux poutres du plafond forment autant
de rayons provenant de cette petite figure brillante sur laquelle sont
penchés les anges qui s'envolent • l'étoile elle-même, brillant sur le
toit, lui est subordonnée. Cette composition serait trop artificielle si
elle n'était rompue par le lointain brumeux dans lequel une troupe
de cavaliers attendent les Rois. En compagnie d'un chien courant à
toutCg jambes, ils interrompent la symétrie de lignes et forment un
point de concentration au reste de l'action. 3. La fuite en Egypte. —
L'âne est ici le personnage principal. Je n'ai jamais vu ni lion, ni
léopard, ni cheval, ni dragon avoir une expression aussi sublime que
ce paisible animal domestique grâce à la grande animation de ses
naseaux et de ses oreilles dressées. Le tableau se compose d'un
charmant paysage; la Madone et saint Joseph suivent un sentier
ombragé, au bord d'une rivière, sur le côté du tableau. Je n'ai
compris qu'en m'en approchant de très près combien la tête de la
Vierge a dû être étudiée ; aucune tête de Vierge de Raphaël n'a une
expression plus douce et plus profonde, et sa réalité est beaucoup
plus grande. L'artiste semble avoir voulu que tout fût subordonné à
la beauté de cette seule tête et ce tableau est une preuve
merveilleuse de la possibilité de concentrer tout l'intérêt d'une vaste
toile sur une unique figure. Cela tient en partie à la légèreté de la
peinture, moins travaillée que la surprenante et magistrale
composition : les deux figures sont traitées comme des personnages
vivants sur la scène, parfaitement finis, tandis que le paysage est
peint aussi rapidement qu'un décor, avec le même
 INDEX VÉNITIEN 189 effet d'opacité de couleur. Il est, du
reste, difficile de juger, au point de vue de îii couleur, un tableau qui
a tant souffert. 4. Le massacre des Innocents. — Je transcris ici ce
que j ai dit de ce tableau dans les Peintres modernes. « J'ai déjà fait
allusion à la façon pénible dont Raphaël a traité le massacre des
Innocents. Fuseli affirme que « dans une gradation dramatique, il a
montré la mère à tous les degrés de la pitié et de la terreur ». S'il en
est ainsi, je suppose que l'esprit philosophique a prévalu sur
l'imagination. L'imagination ne se trompe pas ; elle voit ce qui est;
elle n'aurait pas confondu la frénésie mortelle de la terreur
maternelle, avec le développement varié des sentiments maternels.
La crainte, la rage, l'agonie à leur paroxysme effacent tout autre
caractère; l'humanité elle-même se perdrait dans la maternité, la
femme devenant la personnification de la fureur bestiale ou de la
crainte. C'est pour cette raison que ce sujet est d'ordinaire traité
avec froideur et fausseté. Le peintre n'a pu entendre les cris, il ne
s'est pas mêlé aux fugitifs; il s'est assis dans son atelier pour
convulser les traits avec méthode et philosopher sur la folie. Tintoret
n'a pas agi ainsi; il a senti que, dans de semblables circonstances,
l'expression du visage humain est impossible à rendre et n'aboutirait
qu'à une chose luide et fausse, et il s'est refusé à faire parler les
traits, comprenant qu'en se plaçant au milieu de cette multitude
affolée, on ne pouvait songer à guetter des expressions. Il repousse
de même les détails du meurtre ou la décoloration de la mort : pas
de sang, pas de tueries, mais un clair-obscur plein de terreur. La
scène se passe dans le vestibule extérieur d'un palais : le marbre
glissant est encombré d'ombres rougeàtres qui remplissent nos yeux
de terribles et sanglantes visions : un immense escalier, sans
parapet, descend à gauche, emportant une foule de femmes, mêlées
aux meurtriers. L'enfant, que l'une d'elles porte dans ses bras, a été
saisi par les jambes, elle se précipite dans le vide et tombe la tête la
première^ son poids emportant l'enfant loin de la main qui Vavait
saisi', elle sera mise en pièces dans une seconde. Près de nous est la
terrible lutte; un amoncellement de mères et d'épées; un des
meurtriers renversé et écrasé par elles; l'épée d'un autre saisie par
la lame par la main nue d'une femme; la plus jeune et la plus belle
des femmes, qui a arraché son enfant à la mort et l'étreint contre sa
poitrine avec la force d'une barre de fer, tombe dans la foule sur la
pointe des épées; tous, enchevêtrés, 19
 ago INDEX VENITIEN se précipitent avec un abandon
frénétique du corps et de l'âme, poussés par l'espoir du salut. Plus
bas, au pied de Tescalier, on voit dans l'ombre un amas de
vêtements. C'est une femme assise, immobile, comme pétrifiée. Elle
regarde fixement son enfant mort, posé par terre h côté d'elle, elle
presse doucement son front avec sa main. » Je n'ai rien h ajouter à
cette description, si ce n'est que je crois qu'il a dû y avoir des
changements faits dans la couleur qui traverse les palais de marbre.
Dans la lumière, ils sont d'un blanc doré et d'un gris pâle; ils
deviennent, dans l'ombre, rouge et gris foncé. II y a là une
discordance qui me fait supposer que les couleurs ont dû changer. 5.
La Magdeleine. — Ce tableau et celui de sainte Marie VÉgyptienne
qui lui fait pendant, ont été peints pour remplir entre les fenêtres
d'étroits espaces qui ne pouvaient pas recevoir des compositions et
où pourtant une simple figure eût semblé une preuve de dédain.
Tintoret a agrandi ces espaces autant que possible en y peignant
des paysages rendus intéressants par l'introduction d'un très petit
personnage. Il n'a cependant pas considéré la tâche d'agrandir ainsi
un petit morceau de boiserie comme digne d'y déployer toute sa
puissance et il y a apporté autant de négligence et de hâte qu'un
garçon tapissier terminant une chambre d'hôtel dans une gare. La
couleur est presque partout opaque et écrasée comme sur un décor,
et comme le soleil frappe le matin sur un des tableaux, et, l'après-
midi, sur l'autre, des teintes qui, à l'origine, étaient légères et
imparfaites sont devenues, en séchant ainsi, des taches de boue. Et
pourtant, malgré toutes ces restrictions, ces tableaux présentent un
grand intérêt, car bien que les ayant faits, ainsi que je l'ai dit, sans
application et trop rapidement, Tintoret y a apporté son plus ardent
tempérament et, dans la Magdeleine^ le laurier dont les feuilles se
détachent, par-ci, par-là, sur de sombres nuages, a dû être un des
plus parfaits détails de paysage qu'il ait jamais exécuté. Ses racines
sont entremêlées dans les broussailles, toutes ses feuilles ont l'air
d'être articulées et cependant ce laurier paraît aussi sauvage et aussi
naturel que s'il avait poussé là, au lieu d'y être peint. II y a eu aussi
dans le lointain, une montagne et un ciel d'orage dont je regrette
fort la perte, car quoiqu'on puisse encore discerner les lumières, tout
le reste est devenu d'un brun flétri. Il y a un curieux détail
d'exécution dans
 INDEX VÉNITIEN 291 la lumière frappant un torrent qui
court sous les racines de laurier; racines sombres sur le brillant de
l'eau. Un autre peinlre eut d'abord peint l'eau éclairée, puis les
racines; Tintoret a, tout au contraire, étendu d'abord une couche
brune destinée aux racines, puis il a, par quelques coups de sa
brosse chargée de blanc, introduit de l'eau dans les interstices. 6.
Sainte Marie V Egyptienne. — Même plan que le tableau précédent,
seulement sainte Marie nous tourne le dos tandis que Magdeleine
nous montre son visage; quant au laurier, il est devenu un palmier.
Le torrent (le Jourdain?) est ici plus important et l'eau est
admirablement bien peinte. Parm^i les peintres anciens, Tintoret est
celui qui est le plus attiré par l'eau courante avec laquelle
sympathisait évidemment son impétueux esprit. ^. La Circoncision
du Christ. — Le gardien a quelque idée que ce tableau est une
imitation de Paul Veronese. Je doute que Tintoret ait jamais imité
quelqu'un, mais ce tableau est bien l'expression de ce qu'aimait
Veronese : la beauté des tissus d'or et des draperies de couleur dont
on nous montre ici la puissance morale. Le prêtre semble n'être là
que pour supporter sa robe rouge, avec ses carreaux noirs et or, et
cependant rien n'est enlevé à la dignité de la scène. Tintoret a
apporté un grand soin à la tête du grand prêtre; je ne connais pas
une tête de vieillard d'une aussi exquise douceur et d'une aussi
grande noblesse de lignes. A genoux, il reçoit TEnfant dans ses bras;
il le regarde avec une vénération et un amour infinis; les rayons
lumineux de la tête de l'Enfant concentrent la lumière et l'intérêt.
Tout le tableau semble être un plat d'or destiné à recevoir l'Enfant; la
robe du grand prêtre s'étale derrière lui pour qu'elle occupe plus de
place; les tables et le plancher sont marquetés; les ombres du
temple sont éclairées par des lampes d'airain, et, par-dessus tout,
pendent de nombreux rideaux dont les plis cramoisis sont jonchés de
flocons d'or. Avec V Adoration des Mages, ce tableau est le plus
travaillé, le plus achevé de l'École de Saint-Roch, et c'est
certainement le modèle le plus haut de ce qu'on peut mettre de
sublime dans des accessoires d'habillement et de décoration. 8.
L'Assomption de la Vierge. — Sur le panneau de pierre qui forme le
côté de la tombe d'où s'élève la Madone, on voit écrit, en grandes
lettres, REST. ANTONIUS FLORIAN, i834. La dlmen 
 aga INDEX VÉNITIEN sion des lettres avec lesquelles un
homme inscrit son nom sur un tableau qu'il a gâté est toujours
proportionnée à sa stupidité. Les ancins mosaïstes de Saint-Marc
n'ont jamais signé leur nom, mais celui qui désire savoir qui a détruit
TefFet de la voûte, peut voir son nom écrit deux fois, en lettres d'un
demi-pied de haut : Bartolomeo Bozzo. Je n'ai vu nulle part la
signature du Tintoret, excepté dans la grande Crucifixion, mais cet
Antoine Florian, je n'en doute pas, repeignit tout le côté de la tombe
pour pouvoir y inscrire son nom. La peinture, naturellement, est
ruinée partout où il l'a touchée, c'est-à-dire dans une bonne moitié;
le cercle des chérubins dans le ciel est encore pur et on retrouve le
dessin du grand artiste dans le vol de l'ange sur lequel la Madone
s'appuie légèrement en s'élevant. Ce tableau, d'une grande
noblesse, est une perte regrettable; heureusement, il eu reste tant
d'autres, beaux et intacts, qu'il ne faut pas perdre son temps à
glaner dans des ruines. 9. La Visitation. — Petit tableau peint dans la
meilleure manière du maître; exquis dans sa simplicité, sans rival
comme vigueur, bien conservé, un des plus précieux morceaux de
peinture de Venise. Sans montrer une grande puissance
d'imagination et sans pouvoir être comparé, avec ses quatre
personnages demi-nature, à une grande toile en contenant quarante
ou cinquante, ce petit tableau est, par cela même, peint avec une si
parfaite aisance, ne négligeant ni sentiment tendre ni grandeur, que
je ne connais pas de tableau qui me fasse plus envie. Il est dénué de
la tendance à l'efTet dramatique de la Renaissance. Les gestes sont
aussi simples et naturels que ceux de Giotto, seulement exprimés
avec une grandeur de lignes que Tintoret seul a atteinte. L'horizon
étant très bas, les draperies sombres ressortent sur un ciel clair, et
les contours des draperies sont si sévères, que les intervalles qui
séparent les personnages font l'effet de ravins séparant de grands
rochers; ils ont la majesté d'une vallée alpestre au crépuscule. Cette
précieuse peinture est accrochée à trente pieds environ au-dessus
des yeux, mais quand on la voit en pleine lumière, on peut découvrir
que sainte Elisabeth est vêtue de gris et de rouge, et la Vierge de ce
rouge particulier que tous les grands coloristes adorent — sorte de
couleur brique éclatante, ou d'écarlate brunie, opposée à un noir
généreux à reflets bruns et dorés, — et que toutes deux ont des
fichus blancs sur les épaules. Zacharias, vêtu de noir avec
 INDEX VÉNITIEN 293 des manches blanches, sappuie,
derrière elle, sur son bàlon. Le coup de brillante lumière blanche qui
entoure le genou de sainte Elisabeth est un curieux exemple de
l'habitude qu'avait Tintoret de trancher sur les formes sombres par
une sorte de halo brillant, qui a pu paraître artificiel et visant à
l'efTet jusqu'à ce que le daguerréotype eût fait comprendre que
l'instinct du araud peintre était juste, et qu'une ligne aiguë de
lumière entoure bien les objets sombres, adoucis par un espace
lumineux. Opposée à ce tableau est une très précieuse Annonciation
du Titien, pleine de grâce et de beauté. La Madone est une des plus
charmantes qu'il ait peintes, mais lorsqu'on a compris Tintoret, on
reconnaît chez Titien quelque chose de faible et de conventionnel. Il
suffit de comparer les plis mièvres de la draperie de l'Ange aux
draperies du tableau opposé. Les errands tableaux de Zanchi et de
Negri, sur le côté des o marches, sont sans aucune valeur. Second
groupe; sur les murs de la chambre du haut : 10. L Adoration des
bergers. — Ce tableau commence la série des tableaux d'en haut,
peints beaucoup moins soigneusement que ceux d'en bas. C'est un
caprice inexplicable du peintre qui lui a fait couvrir avec une telle
rapidité les seules toiles qui soient en belle lumière, tandis que celles
du donjon et du plafond d'en bas sont très travaillées. Il est possible,
après tout, qu'il ait couvert ces murs en dernier, alors qu'il était
fatigué par un trop long travail. Ces tableaux donnent raison au
principe dont je suis chaque jour plus convaincu : c'est que les
tableaux d'histoire ou de personnages ne sont pas faits pour mettre
en valeur des effets de lumière. La lumière qui convient à une
peinture historique est la lumière tempérée dont les œuvres du
Titien sont les meilleurs modèles et dont La Visitation faite par un
maître supérieur au Titien est le plus parfait exemple, avec les trois
Crucifixions de Saint-Roch, de Saint-Cassano et de Saints-Jeanet-
Paul; avec V Adoration des Mages qui est ici, et, en général, avec les'
plus belles œuvres du Tintoret; mais ce maître n'était pas homme à
ne travailler que d'après un système et, comme Turner, il a noté tous
les effets que la Nature a déployés devant lui. Il semble cependant
considérer les tableaux inspirés par les principes généraux des
coloristes plutôt comme des tours de force que comme une source
de jouissances, et je ne crois pas que excepté dans Les Noces de
Cana, il se soit jamais servi
 aS'j INDEX VENITIEN de ces arllfices de peinture où la
lumière, entrant de différent? côtés, attire plutôt Tattention sur ses
effets que sur la figure qu'ils doivent éclairer. Nous en avons vu un
merveilleux exemple dans La Cène, à Saint-Georges-Majeur, tableau
éclairé à la lumière factice. L'Adoration des bergers a probablement
été aussi surprenante au moment où elle fut peinte : la Madone est
assise sur une espèce de natte en corde recouverte de paille : le
tableau est divisé en deux étages, la Vierge occupant la partie
supérieure avec deux femmes adorant le Christ. La lumière y pénètre
à travers les poutres espacées du toit de l'étable et par les barreaux
d'une fenêtre carrée. A Fétage inférieur, la lumière tombe derrière le
filet sur le sol de Tétable où sont un coq et une vache, et cette
lumière dessine les formes des bergers, la plupart en demi-teinte,
mais avec des taches d'une plus vigoureuse lumière tombant d'en-
haut jusque sur eux. L'illusion d'optique a été autrefois aussi parfaite
que dans un des meilleurs intérieurs de Hunt, mais chose curieuse,
le peintre semble n'avoir trouvé aucun plaisir à parfaire son œuvre et
n'avoir eu envie que d'en finir. C'est absolument un décor, tel que
Tintoret eût pu en faire pour un petit théâtre s'il avait eu besoin de
gagner un shilling par jour. Je ne peux pas croire qu'il lui ait fallu
plus de deux jours pour terminer cette toile d'environ i4 pieds de
haut sur lo de large. Le lâché de l'exécution augmente dans la même
proportion que les brillants effets de lumière : la figure de la Madone
et des femmes qui, en haut du tableau, ne participent pas h ces
effets sont peintes avec un certain soin, tandis que les bergers et la
vache sont malpropres et qu'on ne reconnaît la vache, qui est en
pleine lumière, qu'à sa dimension et à ses cornes, plutôt qu'au soin
pris pour lui donner la forme voulue. Il est curieux de comparer cette
esquisse informe avec la tête de l'âne dans La Faite en Egypte sur
laquelle le peintre a déployé toute la puissance de son talent. Au
point de vue « effet de lumière », l'œuvre n'en est pas moins
intéressante. Un point à noter, c'est que dans la mangeoire, derrière
la vache, Tintoret a placé un paon et qu'au lieu de se donner le
plaisir de le peindre en pleines et brillantes couleurs il l'a sacrifié à la
lumière et l'a peint en gris avec un ou deux yeux ternes sur la
queue, procédé analogue à celui de Turner enlevant leurs couleurs
aux drapeaux de ses bateaux dans le Gosport. De plus, pour troubler
les yeux, Tintoret a mis de
 INDEX VÉNITIEN agS la litière partout : de la paille
attachée au toit, de la paille sur la natte et sur le sol, sur la gloire
même qui entoure la tête de l'Enfant, dont les rayons, brisés en
petits morceaux ressemblent à des pailles hachées. Mais la plus
curieuse remarque à faire est le manque absolu d'heureuse
expression dans les figures principales ; tout est commun, vulgaire,
jusqu'aux plis des draperies. Tintoret semble avoir résolu de faire
des bergers aussi peu intéressants que possible, mais pourquoi avoir
mal peint leurs habits et les avoir placés d'une façon aussi peu
pittoresque ? En y réfléchissant, je crois que le peintre a agi d'après
ua principe arrêté : il n'a pas la sentimentalité allemande qui fait des
bergers et des paysans gracieux ou sublimes : il les vulgarise de
parti pris, non par la laideur de leur visage, mais par la médiocrité de
sa peinture et le laisser-aller des draperies, et, plus j'y pense, plus je
reconnais que Tintoret a toujours agi de même et que la beauté de
sa peinture est, chez lui, proportionnée à la dignité de son sujet. Il
ne se servira pas de tout son talent pour peindre des gens du
vulgaire et, si l'on veut connaître ce qu'il vaut, il faut le voir aux
prises avec un roi, un sénateur ou un saint. Ce rapport curieux avec
les tendances aristocratiques de la Yénétie est intéressant à
constater chez un des plus grands artistes que produisit cette nation.
J'ai oublié de noter que s'il fit un paon gris, sans se soucier de la
couleur, il l'a cependant marqué d'un trait qu'un peintre ordinaire
n'eût pas observé ; la platitude particulière du dos et l'ondulation
des ailes : tout le corps de l'oiseau est là, bien que ses plumes soient
négligemment peintes. Même observation à faire sur le misérable
coq qui picore dans la paille. Tintoret avait fait de si vilains bergers
qu'il n'a pas osé bien peindre les animaux ; on n'aurait regardé
qu'eux. Je ne peux pas dire ce qu'offrent les bergers : cela
ressemble à des bols de lait, mais ils sont si mal portés, avec de
telles contorsions, que le lait devrait être renversé. Un homme, au
premier plan, tient un panier d'œufs ; je suppose que c'est pour
appuyer sur le caractère rustique de la scène et que le panier ne fait
pas partie des offrandes des bergers. II. Le Baptême. — Peinture de
meilleure qualité que la précédente, bien qu'ayant encore peu
d'apparence de soin ou d'entraînement. La couleur est généralement
grise, les figures sont maigres déforme et si légèrement peintes que,
dans les dix-neuf figures
 296 INDEX VÉNITIEN du fond, il n'y en a pas plus de douze
qu'on puisse qualifier ainsi ; le reste est tellement ébauché et
surchargé qu'on peut à peine s'y reconnaître. Il y a pourtant un
point très intéressant pour un peintre de paysage : on voit au loin
une rivière bordée d'un taillis ; le ciel est sombre, mais la rivière n'en
reçoit pas moins le brillant reflet d'une déchirure invisible dans les
nuages, si brillant que lorsque je vins pour la première fois à Venise,
n'étant encore habitué ni à la légère façon de peindre du Tintoret, ni
à voir des tableaux aussi abîmés, je pris Teau de la rivière pour une
bande du ciel. Cet effet, tel que Tintoret le présente, manque un peu
de naturel, mais il prouve sa connaissance d'un principe qu'ignorent
la moitié des peintres d'histoire actuels : c'est que le reflet qu'on voit
dans l'eau est totalement différent de ce qu'on voit au-dessus d'elle,
et qu'ilj est possible d'avoir un reflet de brillante lumière là où
l'obscurité seule nous paraît pouvoir se refléter. Ici, les nuages sont
ronds, lourds et sombres et enlèvent de l'attrait à ce qui aurait fait
un beau fond de paysage. Derrière les rochers de droite, on aperçoit
une seule tête qui doit être le portrait de quelqu'un se rapportant à
ce tableau. 12. La Résurrection. — Encore un tableau « d'effet de
lumière » et pas un des plus remarquables ; ce qu'il renferme de
meilleur est le groupe un peu éloigné des deux Maries vues aux
lueurs de l'aurore. Le sujet de la Résurrection met en lumière les
défauts du Tintoret ; son impétuosité n'est pas ici à sa place : le
Christ sort du rocher comme un coup de tonnerre et les anges
euxmêmes semblent devoir être écrasés par les pierres déchirées du
tombeau. On eût pu accepter cette conception si la figure du Christ
eût été sublime ; mais elle est faible, vulgaire et pénible et le tout
est plus que médiocrement peint, sauf un figuier planté dans un
rocher où, par un singulier caprice, le peintre déploie sa plus belle
facture. Les côtes d'or de ses feuilles d'un brun olivâtre le font
ressembler à un de ses beaux dessins de marqueterie dont Tintoret
se sert si volontiers pour les vêtements. 1 3. U Agonie au Jardin. —
Parmi tous les tableaux de Saint-Roch, celui-ci est le plus rapidement
peint, mais il n'est pas figé comme ceux que nous venons de voir. Il
semble avoir été peint en quelques heures, avec un balai. C'est
encore « un effet » et rn effet très curieux. L'Ange qui apporte la
coupe au Christ est entouré d'un halo rouge, et pourtant, la lumière
qui tombe sur les épaules des disciples endormis est froide et
argentée, pendant que la
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