Causation
ECONOMICS 388
LESSON 3
The problem of induction
In A Treatise of Human Nature (1739), David Hume
noted that whilst correlation is reasoned through
deduction, causality is reasoned through induction.
Rule
Cause Effect
Deduction: Given a rule and a cause, deduce the effect.
Rule If it is cloudy, then it rains.
We deduce
It is cloudy. Cause Effect
it will rain.
Abduction: Given a rule and an effect, abduce the cause.
Rule If it is cloudy, then it rains.
Is it cloudy? Cause Effect It is raining.
Induction: Given a cause and an effect, induce a rule.
We can induce that if
Rule it is cloudy it will rain.
It is cloudy. Cause Effect It is raining.
Induction: Given a cause and an effect, induce a rule.
Induction is not rule
preserving; it cannot always
Rule
guarantee correctness.
It is cloudy. Cause Effect It is raining.
Deductive reasoning Inductive reasoning
Universal Universal
Demonstrative Non-demonstrative
inference inference
Necessary Probable
conclusion conclusion
Particular Particular
The problem of induction
All causal inferences rely, directly or indirectly,
on the rationally unfounded premise that the
future will resemble the past:
"…Reason… would proceed upon that principle
that instances, of which we have had no
experience, must resemble those, of which we
have had experience, and that the course of
nature continues always uniformly the same."
Necessary connection
We observe a billiard ball moving towards another
stationary billiard ball.
We then observe that the moving billiard ball strikes
the stationary billiard ball.
The moment after the striking takes place, the
stationary billiard ball suddenly acquires a motion.
We say that one billiard ball has caused another to
move.
Necessary connection
Even before the moving ball strikes the stationary billiard
ball, we confidently expect that the stationary ball will
acquire motion after the strike à constantly conjoined
events.
“Due to their constant conjunction, we are
psychologically certain that B will follow A”
A causal connection between the two billiard balls is a
necessary connection.
The problem of “necessary connection”
Most (if not all) of us would argue that the Sun will rise
tomorrow.
This is because there is a uniformity in nature that
guarantees that such events always happen in the same
way (“Uniformity Principle” or “Resemblance Principle”).
We could reason that the Sun will rise, because today was
once the future, and it turned out exactly like the past.
This is circular reasoning, because it uses the premise that
the future will resemble the past in order to prove that the
future will resemble the past.
Humean Regularity
Theory of Causation
What Hume claims is that we seemingly
perceive necessary causal connections, but in
actuality, we invent the necessary causal
relationship in our mind out of habit.
Humean Regularity
Theory of Causation
Hume says our idea of causation is really just:
1. Temporal priority — The event we perceive as the
cause comes before the event we perceive to be the
effect in time.
2. Spatial contiguity — That two events are conjoined in
space in some way.
3. Constant conjunction — There is a very strong
correlation between two events. Combined with 1.,
the effect takes place after the cause on numerous
occasions from observation.
