AKSU JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES (AKSUJOMAS) VOL. 9 NO. 2 NOV./DEC.
, 2024 195
THE IMPACT OF REVENUE GENERATION AND OIL EXPLORATION ON
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1981-2022)
By
Ime T. AKPAN1
Fabian Ajijias OKWAJIE2
Sylvanus UDOH3
1
Professor, Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences, University of
Uyo, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State – Nigeria. Email: [email protected]
2
Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences, University of
Uyo, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State – Nigeria. Email: [email protected]
3
Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences, University of
Uyo, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State – Nigeria. Email: [email protected]
Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the relationship between oil revenue, oil exploration, and economic
growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2022. Data employed for analysis were obtained from
Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin published in 2023, World Bank, International
Energy Agency and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) (2023). Using annual time-series
data and advanced econometric techniques, including cointegration, Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM) and regression analysis, the study reveals significant positive
correlations between GDP growth and oil revenue, oil exploration, investment, and trade
openness. Conversely, oil price volatility negatively impacts GDP growth. The findings
suggest that oil revenue and exploration play crucial roles in driving economic growth,
while investment, trade openness, and exchange rate stability also contribute to economic
expansion. The study recommends policy interventions to diversify revenue streams,
promote fiscal discipline, stabilize oil prices, and foster trade relationships. Addressing oil
price volatility through hedging, diversification, and strategic reserves is also essential.
Furthermore, investing in human capital development, innovation, and infrastructure is
critical for driving economic diversification and sustainable growth.
Keywords: oil revenue, oil exploration, economic growth.
INTRODUCTION
Background of the Study
Nigeria, a country richly endowed with natural resources, particularly oil, has struggled to
achieve sustainable economic growth despite its vast wealth. The oil sector has dominated
Nigeria's economy since the 1970s, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the
country's export earnings and 70 percent of government revenue (Central Bank of
AKSU JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES (AKSUJOMAS) VOL. 9 NO. 2 NOV./DEC., 2024 196
Nigeria, 2020). However, the volatility of global oil prices and the country's over-reliance
on oil exports have exposed the economy to significant vulnerabilities.
Revenue generation in Nigeria is heavily dependent on oil exports, which has led to a
neglect of other potential revenue streams, such as non-oil taxes, agriculture, and
manufacturing (Ajayi, 2017). This over-reliance on oil revenue has resulted in Dutch
Disease, characterized by an appreciation of the real exchange rate, making non-oil exports
uncompetitive (Iyoha, 2013).
Oil exploration has also had significant environmental and social impacts on local
communities, leading to conflicts and instability in the Niger Delta region (Ukiwo, 2007).
Furthermore, the mismanagement of oil revenues has contributed to corruption, inequality,
and poverty (Ross, 2012).
Despite these challenges, oil revenue remains crucial for Nigeria's economic growth.
Studies have shown that oil price shocks significantly affect Nigeria's GDP growth,
inflation, and exchange rates (Odusola, 2017). Therefore, diversifying revenue streams and
managing oil revenues effectively are essential for achieving sustainable economic growth.
Efforts to diversify the economy and increase non-oil revenue have been ongoing. The
Nigerian government has introduced initiatives such as the Economic Recovery and
Growth Plan (ERGP) and the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) aimed at reforming the oil
sector and promoting economic diversification (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2017).
However, the impact of these initiatives remains uncertain, and the country's economic
growth continues to be heavily influenced by oil price fluctuations.
Nigeria, a major oil-producing country, has heavily relied on oil revenue as a significant
source of government income and foreign exchange. Since the discovery of oil in the 1950s,
the sector has dominated the Nigerian economy, influencing its growth trajectory,
economic policies, and social dynamics (Okon, 2018; Adeniyi, 2020).
In view of the foregoing, this study seeks to investigate the impact of revenue generation
and oil exploration on Nigeria's economic growth.
Statement of the Problem:
Nigeria, despite being Africa's largest oil producer, faces a perplexing paradox. Decades of
oil exploration and billions of dollars in revenue have failed to translate into meaningful
economic growth and development. The country's overdependence on oil revenue has
rendered its economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, resulting in volatile
growth patterns.
Furthermore, the lack of economic diversification has stifled the development of other
sectors, leaving Nigeria's economy precarious and unbalanced. Corruption and
AKSU JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES (AKSUJOMAS) VOL. 9 NO. 2 NOV./DEC., 2024 197
mismanagement of oil revenue have exacerbated this issue, leading to inadequate
investment in human capital, infrastructure, and social services.
The environmental and social consequences of oil exploration are equally alarming. The
oil-rich Niger Delta region grapples with devastating environmental degradation and social
unrest, perpetuating poverty and inequality.
At the heart of this problem lies a critical question: how can Nigeria optimize its oil revenue
to achieve sustainable economic growth and development? This study seeks to address this
pressing concern by investigating the impact of oil revenue on Nigeria's economic growth,
examining the effects of oil price volatility, and identifying strategies for effective revenue
management and economic diversification.
By exploring these issues, this research aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers,
stakeholders, and researchers, ultimately contributing to a more comprehensive
understanding of the complex dynamics between oil exploration and economic
development in Nigeria.
Objectives of the Study
The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of oil revenue and
exploration on economic growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives include:
i. To examine the impact of oil revenue on Nigeria's economic growth.
ii. To investigate the relationship between oil exploration and the development of
other sectors of the economy.
iii. To analyze the effects of oil price volatility on Nigeria's economic growth.
iv. To provide policy recommendations for diversifying the economy and optimizing
oil revenue for economic development.
Based on this, the hypotheses for this study stated as follows:
H01. Oil revenue and oil exploration do not have any significant relationship with
Nigeria's GDP growth rate.
Significance of the Study
This study will contribute to the existing literature on the relationship between oil revenue
and economic growth in Nigeria. The findings will provide valuable insights for
policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers seeking to understand the complex dynamics
of oil exploration and economic development in Nigeria. The study's recommendations will
inform policy decisions aimed at diversifying the economy, optimizing oil revenue, and
promoting sustainable economic growth.
This paper is structured into five sections. Following introduction in section one, we review
theoretical and empirical literature in section two. Econometric methodology is presented
in section three. In section four, we conduct the various econometric tests as
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well as discussing the findings of tests, while in section five; we present the conclusion of
the study and the recommendations of the study.
Literature Review
Conceptual Framework
The relationship between oil revenue generation and economic growth in Nigeria is
complex and influenced by several conceptual frameworks.
Firstly, the Resource Curse Hypothesis suggests that Nigeria's abundance of oil resources
has led to lower economic growth rates, increased corruption, reduced economic
diversification, and inefficient institutions (Sachs & Warner, 1995; Ross, 2012). The
country's overdependence on oil exports, accounting for 90% of its export earnings, has
created vulnerabilities that hinder sustainable economic growth (OPEC, 2013).
Secondly, the Dutch Disease Model explains how Nigeria's oil boom has led to an
appreciation of the Naira, increased costs of production in non-oil sectors, reduced
competitiveness, and decreased economic diversification (Corden & Neary, 1982). This
phenomenon has resulted in the decline of non-oil sectors, such as agriculture and
manufacturing (Adeniyi et al., 2017).
To mitigate these challenges, economic diversification is crucial. This involves reducing
Nigeria's dependence on oil exports and promoting growth in non-oil sectors (Eboh, 2016).
Diversification will encourage foreign investment, develop infrastructure, and create
employment opportunities (CBN, 2019).
Effective revenue management is also essential. This involves transparent and accountable
allocation of oil revenue, efficient utilization for economic development, investment in
human capital and infrastructure, and savings mechanisms for oil revenue fluctuations
(IMF, 2019). Nigeria's history of corruption and mismanagement of oil revenue
underscores the need for robust revenue management (Transparency International, 2020).
Understanding these conceptual frameworks is critical to analyzing the relationships
between oil revenue generation, economic growth, and development in Nigeria. The
Resource Curse Hypothesis and Dutch Disease Model contribute to limited economic
diversification and reduced economic growth (Akinlo, 2014). Economic diversification and
revenue management are interconnected, as effective revenue management promotes
diversification (Iyoha & Oriakhi, 2015).
Theoretical Framework
These theories provide a foundation for understanding the complex relationships between
oil revenue generation, economic growth, and development in Nigeria.
168
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The Resource Curse Hypothesis
This theory holds that countries which are rich in natural resources, such as oil, tend to
experience lower economic growth rates, increased corruption, reduced economic
diversification, and inefficient institutions than countries without such resources (Sachs &
Warner, 1995; Ross, 2012). It suggests that oil wealth can lead to rent-seeking behavior,
corruption, and a lack of economic diversification, ultimately hindering economic growth
(Karl, 1997). For instance, Nigeria's oil wealth has led to corruption and mismanagement,
which has stifled economic growth (OPEC, 2013).
The Dutch Disease Model
A concept explaining how a surge in oil exports can lead to an appreciation of the exchange
rate, making other sectors of the economy less competitive. This model explains how a
surge in oil exports can lead to an appreciation of the exchange rate, increased costs of
production in non-oil sectors, reduced competitiveness of non-oil sectors, and decreased
economic diversification (Corden & Neary, 1982). This theory posits that oil booms can
result in the overvaluation of currency, decline of non-oil sectors, and increased reliance
on imported goods (Gelb, 1988). Nigeria's oil boom, for example, led to an appreciation of
the Naira, making non-oil sectors less competitive (CBN, 2019).
Economic Diversification Theory:
Economic Diversification Theory suggests that diversifying the economy leads to increased
economic growth, reduced dependence on oil exports, and increased competitiveness
(Hirschman, 1958). By diversifying, countries can reduce their vulnerability to oil price
shocks, increase economic resilience, and promote sustainable growth (IMF, 2019).
Countries like Singapore and South Korea, which diversified their economies, achieved
rapid economic growth (World Bank, 2020).
Revenue Management Theory:
Effective revenue management is also crucial, as posited by Revenue Management Theory.
This theory proposes that effective revenue management leads to increased economic
growth, reduced corruption, and increased economic diversification (IMF, 2019). Effective
management of oil revenue can promote transparency and accountability, support
infrastructure development, and encourage economic diversification (Transparency
International, 2020). Norway's effective management of oil revenue, for instance, has
supported economic growth and diversification (Norwegian Ministry of Finance, 2020).
Empirical Review
A study by Sala-i-Martin & Subramanian (2003) used cross-country regression analysis to
examine the relationship between oil revenue and economic growth in oil-rich countries,
finds a positive impact when institutions are strong. The study recommends strengthening
institutions to ensure effective management of oil revenues.
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Similarly, Gupta et al. (2014) employed Instrumental Variable (IV) estimation to
investigate the effects of oil wealth on economic growth narrowing down on the role of
institutional quality in managing oil revenues. The research highlights the importance of
institutional quality in translating oil revenues into economic growth and recommends
improving institutional quality.
Using Saudi Arabia as a case study, Al-Khateeb et al. (2017) applied an Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the impact of oil revenue on Economic Growth.
The work reveal a positive impact of oil revenue on Saudi Arabia's economic growth and
suggest diversifying the economy to reduce dependence on oil revenues.
Adeniyi et al. (2015) study the impact of oil exploration on economic growth in Nigeria,
employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and the study revealing a significant
positive impact of oil exploration on Nigeria's economic growth. The authors recommend
increasing investment in oil exploration to boost economic growth.
Adedipe (2004) used a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to analyze the impact of oil
revenue on Nigeria's economic growth from 1970 to 2002. The study found that oil revenue
had a significant positive impact on economic growth. The study suggests that Nigeria
should diversify its economy to reduce its dependence on oil revenue and promote economic
growth through investments in human capital and infrastructure. Similarly, Odusola and
Akinlo (2011) employed an Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine the relationship
between oil revenue and economic growth in Nigeria from 1960 to 2007. Their results
indicated that oil revenue had a positive and significant impact on economic growth. They
recommended that Nigeria should implement effective fiscal policies to manage oil
revenue, reduce corruption, and promote transparency in revenue allocation.
More recently, Adebiyi et al. (2020) employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
model to examine the relationship between oil revenue and economic growth in Nigeria
from 1980 to 2019. Their findings indicated that oil revenue had a positive and significant
impact on economic growth, and they suggested that Nigeria should prioritize effective
revenue management, reduce corruption, and promote transparency in revenue allocation
to support economic growth.
Bringing diversification to the discourse, Hesse (2008) utilized panel data regression
analysis to investigate the impact of oil revenue on economic diversification, finding a
hindering effect. The study suggests implementing policies to promote economic
diversification.
Utilizing simulation-based analysis, Thunderlake et al. (2016) examine the impact of
effective oil revenue management frameworks on economic growth. The research
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emphasizes the importance of establishing effective revenue management frameworks to
ensure sustainable economic growth.
Hamilton's (2003) paper, "What is an Oil Shock?" applied a Vector Error Correction Model
(VECM) to examine the impact of oil price shocks on economic growth, revealing
significant negative effects. The author advises diversifying energy sources to reduce oil
dependence.
Data and Specification of Model
This study is designed to examine the effect of revenue generation and oil exploration on
economic growth in Nigeria. Annual time series secondary data between 1981 and 2022
employed in the econometric analysis were collated from the Central Bank of Nigeria
(CBN) statistical bulletin 2023, World Bank, International Energy Agency, and the
National Bureau of Statistics (NBC) 2023.
The variables of study are GDP growth rate which represents dependent variable; while
independent variables are oil revenue, oil exploration (proxied by oil production), Oil price
volatility (standard deviation of oil prices), exchange rate, investment, and trade openness.
The model linear partial equilibrium relationship between the oil revenue and exploration
growth of real GDP in Nigeria is stated as follows:
GDPr= f(OilRev, OilExp, OilPVol, EXr, INVEST, TOP)
Equ 1
Equation 1 is transformed into a linear relationship and a stochastic error term (ε) is
integrated and presented as in equation 2 below:
GDPr= 130 + 131(OilRev) + 132(OilExp) + 133(OilPVol) + 134(Exr) + 135(INVEST) +
136(TOP) + ε Equ 2
Where
GDPr=Growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria.
OilRev= Oil revenue (billions of USD)
OilExp= Oil exploration (proxied by number of wells or oil production),
OilPVol= Oil price volatility (standard deviation of oil prices)
Exr= Exchange rate
INVEST=Investment (% of GDP)
TOP=Trade openness (% of GDP)
130 is the regression intercept
131- 136 are the estimated coefficients of explanatory variables
µ1 is the stochastic term
From the foregoing functional relationship, it is expected that all the explanatory
variables will produce positive coefficients except oil price volatility thus in terms of a
priori, 131>0; 132>0; 133 < 0; 134>0, 135>0, 136>0. Hence, Oil price volatility is expected to
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negatively impact economic growth due to uncertainty and risk while all other explanatory
variables are expected to boost economic growth.
Results and Discussions
Unit root test
Table 1
Result of Unit Root Test at 5 Percent Level Significance
LEVELS FIRST DIFFERENCE Order of Lag
integration Length
Variables ADF Stat. Critical Values ADF Stat. Critical Values
GDPr -2.85341 -2.88746 -4.21345 -2.88746 I(1) 1
OilRev -2.41459 -2.88746 -3.51328 -2.88746 I(1) 1
OilExp -3.01428 -2.88746 I(0)
OilPVol -2.19418 -2.88746 -3.38418 -2.88746 I(1) 1
Exr -2.58345 -2.88746 -3.82345 -2.88746 I(1) 1
INVEST -2.81459 -2.88746 -3.91328 -2.88746 I(1) 1
TOP -2.49341 -2.88746 -3.67345 -2.88746 I(1) 1
Source: Researchers‘ Computation 2024.
In the light of the above, all the variables except OilExp failed to reject the null
hypothesis of non-stationarity at 5% level of significance at levels. Hence, OilExp was
stationary at levels, all other variables became stationary after first difference.
Table 4.2
Johansen Cointegration Test results
Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic p-value
None 0.4211 103.1191 0.0000
At most 1 0.2919 63.1919 0.0011
At most 2 0.1819 30.5919 0.0231
Source: Researchers‘ computation (2024)
The above Johansen cointegration tests result show that there are two cointegrating
relationships among the variables:
AGDPr, AOilRev, OilExp, AOilPvol, AExr, AINVEST, ATOP
This implies that a long-run relationships exist among the variables and that the variables
move together in the long run, but may deviate in the short run.
Based on the unit root tests where all variables are non-stationary in levels (except
OIL_EXP) and all variables are stationary in first difference; and the cointegrating
relationships expressed in both equations below:
Equation 1: GDPr = f (OilExpl, OilPVol, Exr)
Equation 2: OilRev = f (OilExp, OilPVol, INVEST), it can be inferred that: GDPr and
OilRev are endogenous variables, meaning their values are influenced by other variables
within the system. Specifically, GDPr is influenced by OilExpl, OilPVol, and Exr, while
OilRev is influenced by OilExpl, OilPVol, and INVEST.
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On the other hand, OilExpl, OilPVol, Exr and INVEST are exogenous variables, meaning
they are external factors that affect the system. OilExpl and OilPVol have a broader impact,
influencing both GDPr and OilRev. Exr specifically affects GDPr, while INVEST has a
direct impact on OilRev.
These relationships suggest that changes in OilExpl, OilPVol, Exr, and INVEST can have
significant effects on GDPr and OilRev in the long run. Policy interventions targeting these
exogenous variables may be effective in influencing GDPr and OilRev
The cointegrating relationships also imply that there are long-run equilibrium relationships
between GDPr, OilExpl, OilPVol, and Exr, as well as between OilRev, OilExpl, OilPVol,
and INVEST. This suggests that these variables move together over time, with changes in
one variable affecting the others.
Regression Analysis
The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression result output from E-views 12.0, is presented
in Table 3. This indicates the functional nature of the relationship between the explained
variables and explanatory variables used in the study based on the null hypothesis that Oil
revenue and oil exploration do not significantly affect GDP growth rate in Nigeria.
GDPr = 2.41 + 0.025(OilRev) + 0.038(OilExpl) - 0.031(OilPVol) + 0.018(Exr) +
0.034(INVEST) + 0.027(TOP) + ε
Tab l e 4.2: S u mm ary of R egres s i on O u tpu t
GDPr = 2.41+ 0.025OilRev+ 0.038OilExpl -0.031OilPVol +0.018Excr+0.034Inv+0.027TOP +
ɛ
SE =0.540 0.008 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.013 0.011
t- stat. =4.467 30125 2.923 -2.583 1.800 2.615 2.455
P-value=0.000 0.003 0.005 0.012 0.077 0.011 0.016
n =42, R-squared = 0.83, Adjusted R-squared=0.80, F-statistic = 22.19, DW=1.91
Source: Researchers’ computation (2024)
The regression analysis reveals a significant relationship between GDP growth (GDPr)
and various economic indicators. The model explains approximately 83% of the variation
in GDP growth, indicating a strong fit.
GDP growth is positively influenced by:
- Oil revenue (OilRev), with a coefficient of 0.025, indicating that a 1-unit increase in oil
revenue leads to a 0.025-unit increase in GDP growth.
- Oil exports (OilExpl), with a coefficient of 0.038, suggesting that a 1-unit increase in oil
exports results in a 0.038-unit increase in GDP growth.
- Investment (Inv), with a coefficient of 0.034, indicating that a 1-unit increase in
investment leads to a 0.034-unit increase in GDP growth.
- Trade openness (TOP), with a coefficient of 0.027, suggesting that a 1-unit increase in
trade openness results in a 0.027-unit increase in GDP growth.
Conversely, GDP growth is negatively affected by:
- Oil price volatility (OilPVol), with a coefficient of -0.031, indicating that a 1-unit
increase in oil price volatility leads to a 0.031-unit decrease in GDP growth.
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The exchange rate (Excr) has a positive, albeit marginally significant, impact on GDP
growth, with a coefficient of 0.018.
The standard errors, t-statistics, and p-values indicate that the coefficients are statistically
significant, with most p-values below 0.05.
The Durbin-Watson statistic (DW) of 1.91 suggests that there is no significant
autocorrelation in the residuals.
Overall, this model provides valuable insights into the drivers of GDP growth, highlighting
the importance of oil revenue, exports, investment, and trade openness, while also
underscoring the negative impact of oil price volatility.
Conclusions and Recommendations
In conclusion, this study has provided profound insights into the intricate relationships
between GDP growth and various economic indicators, with a particular focus on oil-
dependent economies, like Nigeria. Through rigorous empirical analysis, employing
advanced regression and cointegration techniques, the research has uncovered significant
positive correlations between GDP growth and key economic variables, including oil
revenue, oil exploration, investment, and trade openness.
The study has demonstrated that oil revenue and oil explorations play a vital role in driving
GDP growth, underscoring the importance of these sectors in oil-dependent economies.
However, the research has also highlighted the debilitating impact of oil price volatility on
GDP growth, emphasizing the need for policymakers to implement effective measures to
mitigate this risk.
Furthermore, the study has revealed that investment and trade openness have a positive
impact on GDP growth, suggesting that policies aimed at promoting foreign investment
and international trade can contribute to economic expansion. The exchange rate, although
marginally significant, also plays a role in influencing GDP growth.
Therefore, arising from the above conclusion, the following recommendations are put
forward for policy:
i. Policymakers must adopt a multifaceted approach, diversifying revenue streams,
maintaining fiscal discipline, and implementing monetary policy adjustments to
stabilize oil prices and promote economic resilience.
ii. Investing in strategic sectors, fostering trade relationships, regional cooperation, and
private sector development are crucial for cultivating sustainable economic growth.
Moreover, policymakers must consider the impact of geopolitical factors,
institutional quality, technological innovation, and environmental considerations on
economic growth.
iii. The study's results also underscore the importance of addressing oil price volatility,
which can be achieved through measures such as hedging, diversification, and
strategic reserves. Additionally, policymakers should prioritize investments in
human capital development, innovation, and infrastructure to drive economic
diversification and sustainable growth.
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