Agri-Food

Outlook | 2024
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Global Feed Production

Down Slightly in 2023
Lower demand attributed in part to more efficient use
of feed; poultry feed shows most significant growth
Alltech’s Agri- Food Outlook estimates that global feed tonnage Alltech’s annual feed survey, now in its 13th year, includes
totaled 1.29 billion metric tons (BMT) in 2023, a decrease data from 142 countries and more than 27,000 feed mills. It
of 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) — or 0.2% — from 2022*. assessed compound feed production and prices by utilizing
information collected by Alltech’s global sales team and in
The overall lower demand for feed was due, in part, to
partnership with local feed associations.
the more efficient use of feed made possible by intensive
production systems that focus on using animal nutrition, farm
Select regional observations:
management and other technologies to lower feed intake
• Latin America has experienced continued growth for
while producing the same amount of protein, or more. Slower
the past 10 years, demonstrating the strength of its
production of animal protein, in response to tight margins
monogastrics exports market and its growing aqua and pet
experienced by many feed and animal protein companies,
markets. In 2023, feed tonnage increased by nearly 2.5
also contributed to lower feed demand. The feed tonnage rate
MMT, or 1.24%. That growth was led by the broiler sector,
— defined as the amount of feed produced and distributed per
which had an increase of 2.6%, and the pig sector, with an
unit of livestock or poultry — is influenced by multiple factors
additional 1 MMT. Aquaculture feed tonnage continued its
that affect the demand and supply of feed, as well as the
strong growth trend, with an increase of 3.9%.
efficiency and profitability of animal production.
• Asia-Pacific’s feed tonnage increased slightly in
Changing consumption patterns caused by inflation and 2023, by 6.54 MMT, or 1.40%. The broiler, layer and
dietary trends, higher production costs and geopolitical dairy sector tonnages grew steadily by 7.07 MMT, 1.34
tensions also influenced feed production in 2023.

Trends making an impact on agri-food

The economy (high Changing consumption Geopolitical tensions Animal disease risks Weather-related
production costs) patterns (caused by challenges
inflation and dietary
trends)

*Last year’s Agri-Food Outlook shared preliminary data that has since been adjusted to reflect final figures, putting total feed tonnage for
2022 at 1.29 BMT. We have refined our resources for retrieving data in several Middle Eastern and Central American countries, revealing
higher and more accurate 2022 figures for Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, El Salvador, Panama, Guatemala and Honduras. Feed tonnage for India
was also revised significantly. These revisions added tonnage for the layer sector (India and Iraq); broiler sector (El Salvador, Türkiye and
Sudan); beef (Egypt and Türkiye); and pig (Panama).
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

MMT and 1.10 MMT, respectively. Changing consumer and regulatory considerations. This presents good growth
behaviors, high production costs and animal diseases are opportunities for agri-food businesses in the sustainable/
cited as the top factors affecting 2023 feed production. regenerative food sector.
Asia-Pacific was the most affected by animal disease in • North America reports a reduced number of feed mills
2023. There is optimism for poultry farming in Southeast (5,647 in 2023 versus 5,800 reported in 2022) and slight
Asia, especially as raw material costs stabilize in 2024. increase in the number of pet food plants. Beef is North
Layer feed tonnage continued to rise thanks to shifting America’s largest sector in terms of feed tonnage, and it
consumer demand for affordable proteins. continues to be challenged. Feed tonnage was down 1.1%
• Feed production continues its downward trend in Europe, in 2023. The lingering drought, which has decreased beef
especially in the beef sector. Over the past two years, this cow and calf numbers in the U.S. and Canada, combined
region has experienced the most decline. Europe is dealing with high production costs and aging cow/calf producers
with continued political and market crisis management will likely lead to further herd reduction in 2024. In Canada,
pressures — and a growing demand for providing 2023 beef feed tonnage was down 10.15%.
sustainable feed solutions to address market dynamics

Feed tonnage trends

The feed industry has seen 3% average annual growth over the past 10 years and
3.7% average growth over the past five years, according to an analysis of Alltech
Agri-Food Outlook’s historical data.

A closer look at the numbers Overall, poultry feed tonnage continues to expand but at
a slower pace — a result of changing consumption behavior
Feed production in 2023 increased in Asia-Pacific by and lower purchasing power. Beef continues to decline
6.5 MMT (1.4%), Latin America by 2.457 MMT (1.22%), in production, due to changing cattle cycles in the United
Africa by 1 MMT (1.9%) and Oceania by 0.4 MMT (3.7%), States and the impact of sustainability regulations in
according to feed production data collected for Agri-Food Europe. Aquaculture feed tonnage dropped slightly due to
Outlook. Feed production decreased in Europe (-3.8%) and a decline in supply in China.
in North America (-1.1%).
China remains the largest feed-producing country in the
Globally, increases in feed tonnage were reported in the world, followed by the United States and Brazil.
broiler, layer and pet sectors, while decreases were
reported in the pig, dairy, beef, aqua and equine sectors.

Top sector by region

Region Sector 2023 feed tonnage total Percentage of total feed

Africa Broiler 17.330 MMT 33.70%

Asia-Pacific Broiler 160.667 MMT 33.80%
Europe Pig 72.610 MMT 28.70%
Latin America Broiler 74.325 MMT 37%
Middle East Broiler 12.545 MMT 34.90%
North America Beef 63.248 MMT 24.40%
Oceania Broiler 4.087 MMT 37.90%
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

A closer look at the trends ingredients used to produce them.

• Health factors affected dietary trends in most
affecting feed production regions, but they were most heavily demonstrated
The major trends identified this year align with those in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
highlighted in the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2024, a • In Oceania, Africa and Asia-Pacific, dietary
report by Rabobank, one of the world’s largest agricultural trends were also strongly influenced by cultural
banking institutions. or religious preferences, survey respondents
said. Food choices were more affected by
Economy and product prices environmentalism in Oceania and Europe than
Globally, consumer behavior is most impacted by the other regions.
economy and product prices. Over 65% of Agri-Food
Outlook respondents said inflation and the overall state The occurrence and spread of animal diseases
of the economy in 2023 had the most impact on the feed Animal diseases, such as African swine fever (ASF) and
tonnage rate. Dietary trends were rated the distant second- highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), affect the health
most important factor. and productivity of animals and pose a significant challenge
to the feed industry. Disease outbreaks can disrupt supply
Respondents also noted that:
chains, impact production efficiency and prompt changes
• Production costs — feed, labor, energy, transportation, in feed formulations. This year’s respondents said disease
etc. — contributed to the drop in feed production. risk remained a top factor in 2023, but they noted that risk is
• Economic factors and dietary trends resulted in decreasing thanks to improved control efforts, such as better
changes in consumer behavior that ultimately affected tools for biosecurity and traceability, vaccines and advanced
protein demand. Millennials, who now have the most genetic technologies.
purchasing power, tend to focus on nutrition, quality and HPAI affected the most countries around the world (40).
convenience when making food purchases, which may Respondents reported that ASF had affected agricultural
influence their animal product preferences and the feed production in 24 countries in Europe and Asia.

100.00%

Consumer trends affecting agri-food — by region

80.00% According to Agri-Food Outlook survey respondents
Sixty-five percent of Alltech Agri-Food Outlook survey respondents rated
product prices/the economy as the most important factor influencing feed
60.00%
production. Dietary trends were the distant second-most important factor.

40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Product Dietary trends Food security Preferences Animal welfare Food quality Changes in Food safety
prices/economy for local food food-shopping
purchasing habits (venue of
purchase)

North America % Asia-Pacific % Europe % Latin America % Africa % Oceania % Global %

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) was reported in several Weather-related challenges
African and Asian countries. Adverse weather events caused by climate change —
• Asia-Pacific: Control of ASF is an ongoing challenge in droughts, floods, frosts, heat waves and an increased
China and Southeast Asia. HPAI and other diseases have amount of pests — also played a role, affecting production
significantly affected the broiler sector. Disease challenges and the availability, cost, digestibility and nutritional
persist in the aquaculture sector, but to a lesser degree value of feed crops and forages. Large swaths of Europe,
than those faced in the poultry and pig sectors. for example, have suffered from water scarcity, which is
• Europe: Spain has been challenged with persistent exacerbated by the increased competition for water and
porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) more frequent water-use restrictions.
outbreaks. ASF continues to impact Europe, creating
uncertainty and disrupting trade. European markets
recovered from the impact of avian influenza (AI), but Outlook for 2024
Denmark, Hungary and Portugal faced further production The Alltech Agri-Food Outlook also offers a holistic
declines due to reduced broiler output. Salmon and look at the state of the industry, using answers from our
trout diseases led to increased mortality, lower feed corresponding qualitative survey to uncover the trends
conversion rates and compromised animal welfare, which and technologies that are impacting the agri-food industry,
impacted Norway heavily. highlight opportunities for growth and gauge expectations
• Latin America: HPAI has been a major factor in Latin for 2024.
America. The risk of it affecting commercial poultry
Over half of survey respondents (54.8%) said they were
farms in Brazil, the world’s largest poultry producer, adds
somewhat optimistic about continued growth in the
uncertainty to the global supply chain.
poultry sector. Other protein sectors have been challenged
• North America: Animal disease had a notable impact on
by disease, economic uncertainties that affect purchasing
poultry production and a limited impact on the pig and
power, and changing consumer dietary trends. About 37%
aquaculture sectors.
said they were somewhat optimistic about growth in pig feed
Geopolitical tensions production in 2024, slightly higher than the second-most-
Eight percent of respondents noted the measurable impact chosen option of the neither optimistic nor pessimistic (32%).
of geopolitical tensions on production costs and supply Regarding feed production in pet, other ruminants,
chain consistency. Trade restrictions, geopolitical instability aquaculture, beef and equine, most respondents said they
and changes in international relations tend to push were neither optimistic nor pessimistic about growth in 2024.
production costs even higher.

Optimism by sector about future growth

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Poultry Pet Other Aquaculture Dairy Pig Beef Equine
ruminants

Very optimistic Somewhat optimistic Neither

Somewhat pessimistic Very pessimistic Score

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Feed production is expected to grow in 2024, with some events and supply chain disruptions were noted. In North
market conditions improving as input costs ease and America, labor costs presented the biggest obstacle, while
consumers adapt to uncertainties. Production growth is likely Oceania struggled with high interest rates.
to remain robust in Brazil and accelerate in Southeast Asia,
with marginal increases expected in China and Oceania. Sustainability efforts
Respondents noted major differences in who is driving
Latin America is expected to lead production growth in
environmental sustainability efforts in their regions. In
2024 but at a slower rate than in 2023. Reduced livestock
Europe and, to a lesser extent, Asia-Pacific, government
inventories are expected to continue in the United States,
efforts appear to be the leader, while consumers seem to
lowering feed demand.
be the main drivers in North America. In Latin America,
Ag-related challenges farmers are leading the charge, respondents said.
High raw materials prices still dominate the list of Overall, the food service industry, media and non-
challenges faced in agriculture around the world, along with governmental organizations were not rated as primary
low returns for producers and animal diseases. In Europe, drivers of efforts to improve sustainability.
labor costs, policies and standards, and geopolitical events Among sustainability measures, water pollution reduction
featured prominently as well. In Latin America, geopolitical methods are most widely being implemented, according

Outlook by species* U.S. and Canada and in European countries.

• Aquaculture: The sector’s feed tonnage decline of
• Poultry: The poultry sector is poised for continued
4.4% (2.42 MMT) in 2023 represents the first such
strength, driven by a blend of regional successes
decline observed in recent years. However, 30%
and global market dynamics. The broiler forecast
of survey respondents said they were somewhat
remains optimistic thanks to lower input costs,
optimistic that the sector will grow in 2024. Latin
increased industrial margins and shifting consumer
America had a 3.9% increase in aquaculture feed
behaviors. For layers, challenges persist, but there
tonnage in 2023; its strong market demand
are pockets of resilience and growth.
and competitiveness in the export market
• Pig: The trends highlight the complex is expected to continue in 2024, and
relationship between economic Broiler feed now Ecuador is expected to maintain its
factors, supply dynamics and disease accounts for position as the top shrimp producer.

29.9%
management in the global pig feed
• Pet: The global pet sector continues
industry. Addressing these challenges
to expand, and Latin America and
will be crucial for sustaining animal
of the world’s North America are primary drivers
agriculture and ensuring food security.
feed tonnage. of that growth. The surge in pet
• Dairy: Globally, the compound feed ownership, especially post-pandemic, is
produced in the dairy sector decreased by contributing to the rising demand for high-
approximately 2.3%. This shift reflects the quality pet products and services.
delicate balance between economic factors and the
• Equine: Equine feeds are expected to decrease both
need to sustain dairy production. Lower feed costs and
in price and in volume in the coming year. More than
higher milk prices would help right the ship.
14% of survey respondents said they were somewhat
• Beef: The beef industry navigates a complex optimistic that feed tonnage would grow in 2024;
landscape, balancing environmental concerns, 13% said they were somewhat pessimistic; 7.2% said
economic realities and regional dynamics. Its decline they were very pessimistic.
of 4.4% (5.35 MMT) was the most pronounced among
all sectors. Growth is expected in China, Brazil and *Find detailed information about each sector starting on
Australia; continued decreases are anticipated in the page 12.
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

to survey respondents, followed by efforts to improve • In Latin America, feed optimization, mycotoxin
feed efficiency, create renewable energy, reduce antibiotic control and gut health management were top entries.
usage/combat antimicrobial resistance, produce food more Sustainable farming practices were also noted multiple
efficiently and improve animal welfare. Respondents said times as top opportunities.
some of these measures are being initiated by governments • In North America, the importance of partnerships and
while others are spearheaded by the private sector. collaboration were highlighted, along with methane
reduction technologies, regenerative agriculture and
Technologies making an impact on agri-food improving feed costs.
Nutritional solutions were once again the technology most • In Oceania, respondents said improving the greenhouse-
frequently cited as making a big impact on the agri-food gas impact of ruminant animal production represents the
industry. Genetics was the second-most-chosen answer, biggest opportunity.
followed by data collection/analysis.
The types of nutritional solutions most pertinent to feed
production, respondents said, were those that improve
feed efficiency, followed by solutions that manage gut
health, mycotoxins, enzymes and minerals. In Europe
and Oceania, methane reduction technologies were cited
as one of the biggest growth opportunities.
Some of the technologies deemed the
most impactful include:
• Aerial imagery, geospatial insights, drone
technologies (Europe and Oceania)
• Artificial intelligence/machine learning

The Role of
(Asia-Pacific)
• Automation of labor/robotics (Latin America)

Technology
• Biosecurity (Africa and North America)

Opportunities for growth

An open-ended question regarding the biggest ag-related
opportunities for agri-food businesses in the region yielded
an array of responses as varied as the regions represented.
Survey respondents said the top
• In Africa, respondents suggested that the top
opportunities lie in improvements in feed efficiency; low-
5 technologies making the most
cost production solutions suited to easy local adaptation; impact on agri-food are:
the mechanization of crop production, beef processing
and packaging; growing the aquafeed market; and Nutritional solutions, 84%
producing their own raw materials for use in feed instead
of having to import them. Genetics, 74%
• In Asia-Pacific, the poultry market and genetically
modified crop production offer the biggest opportunities, Data collection/analysis, 56%
respondents said. They also mentioned smart-farm
technologies, methane emissions reduction measures,
Renewable energy technologies,
and growth in the aquaculture and pet sectors.
• In Europe, carbon dioxide and methane emissions 54%
reductions were mentioned frequently. Feed efficiency,
soil health, research and development, and animal Biosecurity, 54%
mortality reductions were also noted.
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

2023 Feed Tonnage by Region

This year’s global feed survey estimated that the total increase of 1.95% or nearly 1 MMT. Oceania had the third-
global feed tonnage decreased slightly over last year, highest growth, 3.71% or 0.39 MMT.
a .02% decrease of 2.62 million metric tons (MMT) to Feed production in Europe continued its downward trend,
approximately 1.287 billion metric tons (BMT). especially in the beef sector. It dropped by 3.82% in 2023.
Asia-Pacific led feed production growth in 2023, with an North America saw a decrease of 2.8 MMT (1.1%), with
increase of 6.54 MMT (1.4%). Feed production growth in the beef feed tonnage down significantly. The pig and dairy
region’s ruminant sectors offset a setback in the aqua sector. sectors also slipped slightly, but the broiler, layer and pet
Latin America’s feed production grew by 2.46 MMT (1.24%) sectors more than made up the difference. Feed tonnage in
in 2023. Despite high production costs, geopolitical tensions the broiler sector was up nearly 2.9%.
and changing consumer behavior (economic reasons), the While Asia-Pacific is still firmly in first place, North America
region continues to lead global growth, mainly because of its (the United States and Canada) surpassed Europe in total feed
export-driven aquaculture, poultry and pork markets. tonnage production in 2023. Both continents’ feed tonnages
Africa showed continued but slower growth, with an declined, but Europe’s declined more than North America’s.

Region 2023 feed tonnage (MMT) 2022 feed tonnage (MMT) Growth (MMT) Growth (%)

Asia-Pacific 475.33 468.79 6.54 1.40%

North America 259.26 262.06 -2.80 -1.07%
Europe 253.19 263.26 -10.07 -3.82%
Latin America 200.67 198.21 2.457 1.24%
Africa 51.42 50.44 0.98 1.94%
Middle East 35.93 36.05 -0.12 -0.32%
Oceania 10.78 10.40 0.39 3.71%
Total 1,286.58 1,289.21 -2.62 -0.20%

Feed Tonnage by Sector

Volume growth in feed tonnage came predominantly from the broiler feed sector.

Sector 2022 feed tonnage (MMT*) 2023 feed tonnage (MMT) Growth (MMT) Growth (%)

Broiler 385.04 371.95 13.10 3.5%

Pig 320.80 324.81 -4.01 -1.2%
Layer 170.88 170.87 0.01 0.0%
Dairy 126.23 129.17 -2.94 -2.3%
Beef 117.49 122 .84 -5.35 -4.4%
Aqua 52.09 54.51 -2.42 -4.4%
Pet 34.96 34.70 0.26 0.7%
Equine 7.98 8.30 -0.32 -3.9%
Totals* 1,286.58 1,289.20 -2.3262 -0.2%

*Includes other ruminants, other poultry, turkey and calf sector data.
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Feed Mills by Region

The multiyear fall of the total number of feed mills in the world was halted in 2023 thanks, in large part, to India, where
hundreds of additional feed mills were added over the past year. Still, while the total feed mill count is up by 0.3% (or 86 mills),
the general trend from the past few years — of larger and, as a result, fewer feed mills — continued in many countries. The
number of feed mills declined most significantly in China, Chile, the U.S. and Spain.

Country Number of mills, 2023 Number of mills, 2022 Difference

Africa 2,188 2,038 150

Asia-Pacific 7,627 7,146 481
Europe 6,288 6,553 -265
Latin America 4,080 4,266 -186
Middle East 872 813 59
North America 6,147 6,300 -153
Oceania 195 195 –
Total 27,397 27,311 86

Top 10 Countries
The Top 10 countries in terms of feed tonnage did not Altogether, the Top 10 countries used 63.1% of the world’s
change significantly. Türkiye slipped one place, from No. 2023 feed production, and they can be viewed as an
9 to No. 10, trading places with Japan. Despite significant indicator of the trends in agriculture. About 49% of global
fluctuations, the other Top 10 countries remained in the feed production is concentrated in four countries: China,
same positions. the U.S., Brazil and India.

Top countries 2023 feed tonnage (MMT) 2022 feed tonnage (MMT) Growth (MMT) Growth % Rank, 2023 Rank, 2022

China 262.71 260.74 1.97 0.76% 1 1

USA 238.09 240.82 -2.73 -1.13% 2 2

Brazil 83.32 81.81 1.51 1.84% 3 3

India 52.83 46.58 6.26 13.43% 4 4

Mexico 40.42 40.41 0.01 0.02% 5 5

Russia 35.46 34.15 1.31 3.83% 6 6

Spain 27.53 31.23 -3.71 -11.88% 7 7

Vietnam 24.15 26.72 -2.57 -9.63% 8 8

Japan 23.94 24.21 -0.28% -1.15% 9 10

Türkiye 23.37 26.41 -3.03 -11.48% 10 9

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

A Closer Look at the

Top 3 Countries
China United States
China remained in first The United States remained
place. Its feed tonnage in second place, even with a
was up 0.76% in 2023, decrease of 1.13%. The most
an increase of nearly 2 MMT, significant reduction took place in the
driven by increases in broiler and layer beef sector. A drought that has continued
feed tonnage. over the past three years has decreased beef cow numbers
as well as calf numbers. Optimism for aquaculture reigns
Despite tight margins and disease challenges, there is still
due to the increase in the demand for locally grown
a strong demand in China, thanks to its fast-growing middle
seafood and sustainability.
class and shifting preferences for more affordable proteins.
The pig sector is reducing its sow herd, and porcine
Broiler feed accounts for 37% of the country’s overall feed
reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is starting
tonnage.
to increase across the U.S.
Dairy cow numbers are continuing to hold at around 9.36
million, a decrease of only about 0.3%. The dairy industry
continues to consolidate. Demand for goat milk and meat is
increasing, creating optimism in the “other ruminants” sector.
In the pet care sector, functional nutrition and feeding for
specific health concerns are at the top of the trends.
Total feed tonnage: 262.71 MMT (an increase of 0.76%)
Feed production increases in:
Total feed tonnage: 238.09 MMT (a decrease of 1.13%)
• Other ruminants • Dairy — 5.81% Feed production increases in:
— 15.56% • Layer — 4.89%
• Pet — 6.00% • Broiler — 3.00% • Pet — 1.31%
• Beef — 4.47%
• Aqua — 2.63% • Layer — 1.01%

Technology making the most Technologies making the most impact: Biosecurity,
impact: Automation of labor/robotics genetics, data collection/analysis, smart farm
Nutritional solution that represents applications
the biggest opportunity: Methane Nutritional solutions that represent the biggest
reduction technologies opportunity: Enzyme management, gut health
Biggest factors impacting feed management, methane reduction technologies
production: Production costs and Biggest factors impacting feed production:
animal disease Consumer behavior, production costs, supply chain
disruptions, adverse weather
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Brazil
Brazil leads feed production growth in Latin
Other notable trends
America, with a tonnage increase of 1.51 • India (No. 4): Major increases were seen in feed
MMT in 2023 (1.84%). Beef feed production is tonnage in India. Dairy growth was expected due
expected to grow in Brazil in 2024. The country to a rise in milk and milk product consumption
is at the end of a drawdown in beef prices, and the growth of cooperatives feed production.
primarily because of the livestock cycle. Producers expect Broiler feed tonnage was up by
prices to rise in the second half of the year. 24.55% and layer feed was up
7.00%. New farms have been set
The aquaculture sector is experiencing vast growth as large
up in northern and eastern India.
cooperatives and independent farmers have increased
Because of their small sizes,
exports — especially of tambaqui and tilapia — while
those farms are buying feed from
also increasing sales to the domestic market thanks to
commercial feed manufacturers to
accessible prices and the nutritional value of tilapia.
be more cost effective. Increasing
In the dairy sector, there’s optimism for the coming months. disposable income and awareness
Consumption is expected to return to normal, and prices about animal protein in urban populations allowed
paid to farmers are expected to increase. big integrators to produce more chicken, which
The global health challenge of avian influenza has influenced contributed to the increases in layer and broiler feed
Brazilian broiler production in a positive way: through volumes.
growing exports. The layer sector has experienced unusually • Spain (No. 7): Spain held its place in the Top 10,
high rates of egg exports, compensating for the global even with a decrease of 11.88%. The dairy and pig
production losses caused by avian influenza. The domestic sectors dropped the most in terms of commercial
market has also experienced at least 1% growth. Because feed tonnage. There was reduced
eggs are a cheaper animal protein, egg consumption tends to tonnage due to increased animal
increase when purchasing power drops. slaughters, a consistent yearly
decrease in census numbers,
and no generational change
despite the rising average age of
Total feed tonnage: 83.32 MMT (an increase of 1.84%) the country’s livestock farmers.
Feed production increases in: Additional factors specific to
the pig sector include changing
• Pet — 6.18% • Pig — 2.53%
consumer preferences (driven
• Broiler — 3.00% • Layer — 0.99% in part by food price inflation), a decrease in export
• Aqua — 2.55% • Equine — 0.78% markets and health issues.

Technology making the most impact: • Türkiye (No. 10): Decreases in feed production in
Biosecurity Türkiye are due to economic uncertainty, inflation
and increasing production costs. Purchasing
Nutritional solutions that represent
power — especially for the
the biggest opportunity: Gut health
working class — has decreased
management, methane reduction
significantly because of adverse
technologies
economic conditions. The most
Biggest factors impacting feed significant declines in feed
production: Production costs, tonnages were seen in the dairy,
geopolitical tensions, dietary trends, beef, layer and broiler sectors.
adverse weather
Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Broilers
increase in broiler feed tonnage. The cost of raw materials
is also expected to stabilize for broiler producers in Asia-
Pacific in 2024.
Europe: Total poultry feed production was down in Europe
in 2023 by 0.88 million metric tons (MMT). Many markets
were recovering from the impact of avian influenza, while
Broiler feed now accounts for 29.9% of the total feed others — including Denmark, Hungary and Portugal —
tonnage in the world thanks to a 3.5% increase in overall struggled due to a decline in broiler production that led to
tonnage in 2023. While this growth was not uniform challenges for local slaughterhouses. Poultry consumption
across all regions, the poultry sector is poised to keep is, however, expected to increase over the next year due
holding strong in 2024 thanks to a combination of regional to its relatively low price and poultry’s allure as a healthier
successes and global market dynamics. Some of the protein option, and the industry will also benefit from more
biggest factors that will contribute to the resilience of the amenable prices and a rise in imports.
broiler sector include reduced costs for inputs, such as Latin America: Latin America’s poultry industry is thriving,
feed and energy, and increases in margins and profitability. with 2.62% growth (representing 1.89 MMT) in broiler
Shifting consumer preferences will also benefit broiler feed production there in 2023. An export-driven market,
producers, as inflation and other economic changes often the Latin American broiler industry has benefited from its
prompt an inclination toward more affordable protein highly efficient production and the reduced costs of feeding
options, and poultry traditionally serves as the preferred birds there, which strengthen the region’s competitiveness
choice in those circumstances. amongst other poultry-exporting regions around the world.

A closer look North America: The North American broiler sector also
Africa and the Middle East: These regions reported a grew by a respectable 2.85% in 2023. This success was
substantial 12.22% growth in feed production for broilers driven by the region’s growing poultry flock, efficient
in 2023, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of the production practices and favorable market conditions, as
agri-food industry there. well as changing consumer preferences.

Asia-Pacific: Broiler feed tonnage was up 4.6%, an increase Oceania: The broiler sector is by far the largest in both
of 7.07 MMT. The region has been challenged by animal Australia’s and New Zealand’s commercial feed industry,
disease, including highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), comprising nearly 38% of the region’s total feed tonnage.
and the soaring costs of raw materials and profits falling Thanks to this dominance and other factors, the broiler
below expectations, which has led many smaller operations sector grew by more than 1.19%.
to go out of business. Still, optimism for 2024 remains —
particularly in Southern Asia, where India saw a 24.57%

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 61.85 60.13 1.71 2.85%

Asia-Pacific 160.67 153.59 7.07 4.60%
Latin America 74.33 72.43 1.90 2.62%
Europe 54.25 55.13 -0.88 -1.60%
Oceania 4.09 4.04 0.05 1.19%
Middle East 12.54 12.29 0.25 2.06%
Africa 17.33 14.33 3.00 20.93%
Total 385.04 371.94 13.10 3.52%

*Million metric tons

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Layers
Globally, the poultry feed industry continues to expand, farms continue to open across the region as consumers
albeit at a slower pace than has been seen at other times. turn to poultry as a more affordable protein choice.
Layer feed tonnage in the region remained unchanged in Europe: The European layer sector was negatively
2023. There are industry-wide efforts to optimize feed impacted by the outbreak of avian influenza and other
efficiency and to keep pace with changing dietary trends challenges, but with vaccines being field-tested in various
and new purchasing power. Some markets around the countries, producers are hopeful about the year ahead. The
globe were significantly impacted by macroeconomic region’s layer sector was down 1.10%.
challenges and disease outbreaks, which can disrupt
production cycles. Still, the general outlook for the layer Latin America: Layer feed tonnage was down slightly
industry remains positive thanks to its resilience in the face (0.17 MMT, or 0.62%) in Latin America due, in large part,
of difficult circumstances, when other protein sectors often to the effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI),
struggle to adapt. which has decimated the region’s bird inventory. Much
attention is being paid in particular to Brazil, the world’s
A closer look largest exporter of poultry, as the presence of HPAI in that
Africa and the Middle East: The layer sector grew country’s commercial layer farms could have ripple effects
marginally in the Middle East but shrunk significantly in across the global supply chain.
Africa in 2023. This decline was connected to disease North America: The North American layer sector saw a 1%
outbreaks — particularly those related to avian influenza, increase in feed tonnage this year, which correlated to a
which can set producers back financially while also similar rise in the number of layer birds in the region. Both
impacting the overall bird supply. of these increases are attributed to changing consumer
Asia-Pacific: Despite the previous year’s downward trend, tastes and preferences.
the layer sector rebounded in Asia-Pacific in 2023. Layer Oceania: The layer sector grew by 5% in Australia but was
feed tonnage grew steadily there, by 1.34 MMT, thanks in down slightly (by 2.86%) in New Zealand.
part to major increases in countries like India. New layer

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 15.70 15.53 0.17 1.09%

Asia-Pacific 80.40 79.06 1.34 1.70%
Latin America 27.16 27.33 -0.17 -0.62%
Europe 30.98 31.32 -0.34 -1.10%
Oceania 1.04 1.00 0.03 3.50%
Middle East 6.94 6.92 0.03 0.40%
Africa 8.65 9.70 -1.05 -10.82%
Total 170.88 170.87 0.01 0.01%

*Million metric tons

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Pigs
Europe: Pig feed tonnage declined (by 3.31%) in Europe for
the fourth consecutive year, with production down by 2.48
MMT in 2023 compared to 2022. This trend was due in part
to stricter enforcement of environmental laws in various
countries and declining export opportunities. For instance,
production in Spain, the largest pig feed producer in the
The global pig sector faced many challenges in 2023, which
EU, dropped 800,000 metric tons due to shifting consumer
led to an overall decrease in pig feed production of 1.23%.
preferences and the loss of export markets. Looking ahead,
Latin America stood out as the only region that achieved an
with the European sow herd expected to shrink, compound
increase in pig feed production in 2023, while Europe, Asia-
pig feed production is also expected to continue its
Pacific and North America — which have traditionally been
downward trend.
the top pig feed-producing regions in the world — all faced
challenges. African swine fever (ASF) continues to wreak Latin America: Pork feed tonnage continued its upward
havoc on pig production in China and Southeast Asia, where trend in Latin America, with an increase of 2.42% in
repopulation efforts are slowly underway. Moving forward, 2023. The Latin American pig sector remains highly
proper disease management and increased food security competitive compared to other regions thanks to the lower
will be crucial for achieving growth in the pig sector, along cost of feeding animals there and its efficient production
with a dynamic supply chain and the ability to adapt to standards.
economic changes. North America: For the second consecutive year,
compound pig feed production declined 0.95% (or 0.60
A closer look MMT) in North America. This continued decline can be
Africa and the Middle East: The pig sector saw a slight attributed to the smaller size of the region’s sow herd as a
downturn in Africa over the past year but held fairly steady result of negative profit margins, oversupply and increased
in the Middle East. productivity.
Asia-Pacific: The total pig feed tonnage decreased slightly Oceania: Among all agri-food sectors in Oceania, the pig
(by 1.80 MMT) in the Asia-Pacific region for the second sector was the only major one to experience a decrease
year in a row as the result of the over-expansion of the in terms of feed tonnage in 2023. Pig feed production was
sector in 2020-21, disease disruptions and diminished down 4.8% in Australia and 14.6% in New Zealand, the
demand for pork products. Looking ahead, however, the pig latter of which is the result of many farms closing because
industry is expected to bounce back there in 2024 thanks of stiff competition from imports.
to a changing economic climate, which is expected to help
stabilize feed prices.

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 62.39 62.98 -0.60 -0.95%

Asia-Pacific 138.72 140.52 -1.80 -1.28%
Latin America 41.88 40.89 0.99 2.42%
Europe 72.61 75.09 -2.48 -3.31%
Oceania 1.33 1.41 -0.08 -5.94%
Middle East 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00%
Africa 3.88 3.91 -0.03 -0.84%
Grand Total 320.80 324.81 -4.01 -1.23%

*Million metric tons

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Dairy
Challenges with lower milk prices and cattle diseases
continue to impact the industry, and water-scarcity issues
in countries like Spain and Portugal have led some farms
to close down. On the other hand, cattle farmers in Central
and Southeastern Europe only experienced a reduced
demand for industrial cattle feed because they achieved
Globally, the compound feed produced in the dairy sector sufficient grass growth, meaning the numbers skewed
decreased by approximately 2.28% over the past year. For down there for positive reasons. Sustainability drivers will
many countries and regions, the primary culprits behind continue to shape the European dairy industry as national
this decline were high feed costs and low milk prices, environmental policies force the herd to shrink, resulting in
which led farmers to make strategic adjustments that the continued decline of compound dairy feed production.
included reducing their cow numbers or relying more on
non-commercial feed sources. In Europe, dairy producers Latin America: Commercial dairy feed production was
will need to continue grappling with stricter environmental down less than 1% in Latin America in 2023. This decrease
policies in the years ahead and find new ways to continue was the result of the high cost of production and lower milk
growing. Asia-Pacific managed to buck the downward trend prices, which have led farmers to reduce their inputs.
and emerged as the only region that increased its dairy feed North America: The dairy industry in North America has
tonnage in 2023. This growth was fueled by a continued remained relatively stagnant over the past year, with both
increase in the consumption of milk products there, as well the number of dairy cows and the amount of feed tonnage
as an expansion of feed production in co-operatives. consumed staying fairly consistent. Milk yields per cow
increased slightly, but lower milk prices led to higher rates
A closer look of culling. While calf numbers are up an impressive 15%,
Africa and the Middle East: Dairy feed tonnage was down this is the result of more calves being raised to be sold for
both in Africa (by 10.67%) and the Middle East (by 2.69%) beef, which has become a profitable practice for many
in 2023. dairy farms.
Asia-Pacific: Commercial dairy feed production continued Oceania: Overall dairy feed tonnage was up 1.04% in 2023.
its exciting growth in Asia-Pacific at an even faster pace Commercial dairy feed production was down 23.97% in
in 2023, rising by 4.52% YOY (and a 1.6% CAGR since New Zealand due to the high cost of production — but a
2014). India and China stood out as the two markets that 3.85% increase in Australia more than offset the setbacks
increased the most — by 8.7% and 5.8%, respectively experienced elsewhere in the region. While other dairy
— thanks in part to consumer interest in milk and dairy producers around the world have been struggling with
products. rising costs relative to milk prices, dairy farmers in Oceania
Europe: The production of dairy feed was down have still been able to remain profitable, making the dairy
significantly in Europe (by 2.76 MMT, or 6.66%) in 2023. industry there highly competitive.

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 28.20 28.50 -0.30 -1.10%

Asia-Pacific 25.23 24.14 1.09 4.52%
Latin America 20.63 20.79 -0.17 -0.80%
Europe 38.76 41.52 -2.76 -6.66%
Oceania 1.46 1.45 0.02 -1.04%
Middle East 6.62 6.80 -0.18 -2.69%
Africa 5.33 5.97 -0.64 -10.67%
Total 126.23 129.17 -2.94 -2.28%

*Million metric tons

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Beef
The global decline in the production of beef feed continued policies about greenhouse gas and nitrate emissions.
in 2023, with an overall decrease of 4.36% — the most Latin America: For the first time in a decade, beef feed
pronounced downward change among all species sectors tonnage was down in Latin America, but only by 0.03 MMT
last year. Changes in cattle cycles in the United States and (or 0.19%). A number of local circumstances impacted this
stricter sustainability policies in Europe had major impacts, trend; for instance, a high supply of beef led to a record
with the Asia-Pacific beef sector notably surpassing devaluation of live cattle in Brazil. On the other hand,
Europe’s in 2023. The substantial decline in North America Latin America is expected to remain competitive in export
was the result of lingering droughts and high production markets, paving the way for a potential increase in beef
costs, among other issues. Nevertheless, while the feed tonnage in 2024.
European and North American beef industries are expected
to continue declining in 2024, growth is expected in China, North America: While beef has traditionally been the
Brazil and Australia — highlighting the complex dynamics largest sector in North America in terms of feed tonnage,
and landscape of beef feed production around the world. the industry continues to face challenges, and feed tonnage
was down by 5.88% (3.95 MMT) across the region in 2023.
A closer look A three-year-long drought in the U.S. has had lasting
Africa and the Middle East: The beef sector experienced impacts on both cow and calf numbers, and producers have
growth in both Africa (2.48%) and the Middle East (3.76%). also been grappling with high feed prices and decreased
weights at harvest. In Canada, beef feed tonnage was down
Asia-Pacific: Beef feed tonnage was up by 0.30 MMT
10.15%, and the industry continues to reckon with shifting
(or 1.90%) in Asia-Pacific, driven mainly by growth in the
demographics as older producers sell off their farms. For
Chinese market following a period of expansion in the
now, the beef herd is expected to continue to thin, and a
domestic beef herd. Looking ahead, the beef sector in Asia-
decrease in beef feed tonnage is expected in 2024 as a
Pacific is expected to remain relatively flat in 2024 due to
result.
stagnating beef consumption in China and an increase in
imports from Latin America. Oceania: Beef feed tonnage was up 10.77% in Oceania,
making it the region’s main growth sector. Australia has
Europe: The decline of beef feed tonnage in Europe
been rebuilding its herd, leading to growing production and
continued at an even faster pace in 2023, with a reduction
exports.
of 11.16%, or 1.94 MMT. This drop can be explained in
large part by low profitability and stricter environmental

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 63.25 67.20 -3.95 -5.88%

Asia-Pacific 16.08 15.78 0.30 1.91%
Latin America 14.72 14.75 -0.03 0.19%
Europe 15.47 17.41 -1.94 -11.16%
Oceania 0.72 0.65 0.07 10.77%
Middle East 2.12 2.04 0.08 3.76%
Africa 5.13 5.01 0.12 2.48%
Total 117.49 122.84 -5.35 -4.36%

*Million metric tons

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Aquaculture
For the first time in recent memory, the global aquaculture diminished feed conversion rates and compromised animal
sector experienced a decrease in feed tonnage (of 4.43%) welfare across the region.
over the past year. This decline was driven in part by a Latin America: Despite widespread declines in the
significant drop in China’s supply of aqua feed due to aquaculture sector elsewhere in the world, Latin America
lower fish prices, which had a far-reaching impact. Latin continued its growth with an increase of 3.9% in 2023. The
America grew by 0.27 MMT (3.87%). Despite adverse region’s export-driven market remained strong, even in
weather conditions in that region, the demand for aqua the face of geopolitical tensions and challenging weather
products is still strong in Latin America, which helped conditions, thanks to high demand for aqua products there.
aqua producers there remain resilient. Ecuador maintained its top spot as the number-one shrimp
producer, while Chile became the second-largest producer
A closer look
of salmon last year.
Africa and the Middle East: The total aqua feed tonnage of
both Africa and the Middle East increased slightly in 2023. North America: Aqua feed production increased, but only
marginally, in Canada and the United States in 2023.
Asia-Pacific: Aqua feed tonnage decreased in Asia-
Pacific by 7.08% (or 2.72 MMT). This was driven by lower Oceania: Aquaculture feed tonnage in 2023 grew by 7.5%,
fish prices, which led farmers to reduce their stocking or 0.02 MMT.
density; difficult weather conditions, which impacted fish
performance; and economic challenges that decreased
consumer demand for fish products.
Europe: As was seen in many other areas, Europe’s total
aqua feed tonnage was down in 2023 (by 0.14 MMT, or 3%)
for the first time in recent years. Diseases in salmon and
trout had an especially devastating impact on Norway’s
aqua production and also led to increased mortality rates,

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 1.78 1.75 0.03 1.43%

Asia-Pacific 35.70 38.42 -2.72 -7.08%
Latin America 7.17 6.91 0.27 3.87%
Europe 4.63 4.77 -0.14 -2.89%
Oceania 0.22 0.20 0.02 7.50%
Middle East 1.02 0.97 0.05 5.43%
Africa 1.58 1.50 0.08 5.53%
Total 52.09 54.51 -2.42 -4.43%

*Million metric tons

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Pets
Even now, four years since the onset of the COVID-19 Latin America: The total tonnage of ingredients used in pet
pandemic — which led to exponential growth in the pet foods increased by 0.32 MMT (or 3.85%) in Latin America
sector — the global pet industry continues to grow, albeit over the past year. This increase reflects the demand for
at a slower pace of 0.74% in 2023. Demand for high-quality only the highest-quality products from Latin American pet
pet products and services remains high from pet owners owners.
who want only the best for their animal companions. The North America: Thanks to shifting production dynamics,
Latin American and North American markets were the North America now claims the top spot in pet food
primary drivers of this growth, with the pet food sector in production, totaling 11.34 million tons of ingredients in
North America surpassing Europe’s this year. Europe was 2023. While the total number of pet feed mills in the region
the only major outlier of the growth trend in 2023. decreased over the past year, the number of pet food
plants went up. The rise of the North American pet industry
A closer look
underscores the changing landscape of the global pet
Africa and the Middle East: Total pet food tonnage
sector.
increased marginally in Africa in 2023, while no noticeable
change was recorded in the Middle East. Oceania: Pet feed tonnage grew by 0.04 MMT in 2023, a
7.57% increase.
Asia-Pacific: The pet food sector continued its upward
trend in Asia-Pacific in 2023 with 2.41% growth, mainly due
to an increase in the number of households that include a
pet there.
Europe: Europe stood out as the only market experiencing
a decline in pet food production in 2023. Supply-chain
disruptions and inflationary pressures were the key factors
contributing to this decrease.

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 11.34 11.20 0.14 1.21%

Asia-Pacific 2.51 2.45 0.06 2.41%
Latin America 8.67 8.34 0.32 3.85%
Europe 10.97 11.28 -0.31 -2.71%
Oceania 0.54 0.50 0.04 7.57%
Middle East 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00%
Africa 0.82 0.81 0.01 1.02%
Total 34.96 34.70 0.26 0.74%

*Million metric tons

Agri-Food
Outlook | 2024

Equine
The equine industry has remained strong over the past The top challenges in the equine sector include high
year, with much of the interest and industry remaining labor and material prices. The top technologies impacting
focused in North America. The population of “pleasure the sector are biosecurity, microchipping, genetics and
breed” horses decreased slightly there in 2023, while nutritional solutions. Survey respondents said the biggest
the “professional breed” population remained stable but opportunities for nutritional solutions are gut health
is trending lower. On the other hand, interest in quarter management and feed efficiency.
horses continues to rise thanks to the meteoric popularity Looking ahead, equine feeds are expected to decrease both
of “Yellowstone,” a TV show that has gained a massive in price and in volume in the coming year.
following since it first came on the air in 2018.
Economic stagnation and inflation are the top reasons for
the decline in equine feed production, as consumers have
less disposable income for pleasure horse ownership. Feed
for professional horses hasn’t changed.

2023 feed 2022 feed

Region Growth (MMT) Growth (%)
tonnage (MMT*) tonnage (MMT)

North America 3.77 3.80 -0.03 -0.79%

Asia-Pacific 0.38 0.51 -0.13 -25.59%
Latin America 0.76 0.96 -0.19 -20.08%
Europe 2.07 2.06 0.01 0.63%
Oceania 0.43 0.41 0.02 4.88%
Middle East 0.12 0.14 -0.02 -13.06%
Africa 0.44 0.43 0.01 3.23%
Total 7.98 8.30 -0.32 -3.89%

*Million metric tons