CROSS-SECTOR

SECTOR IN-DEPTH Default Trends – Global

26 February 2024
Annual default study: Corporate default
rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near
its long-term average
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Summary 1 Summary
Defaults edged up globally with The global trailing 12-month default rate for speculative-grade companies rose to 4.8%
different trends across regions 3
Loan recovery rates fell noticeably 7
in 2023 from 4.3% in 2022. We believe it peaked at 5% in January this year and will likely
Credit quality deteriorated for the decline to 3.6% by end 2024, staying above or close to its long-term average of 4.2% for
second consecutive year 10 much of the year. This projection is underpinned by our expectation that major central banks
The global speculative-grade default will begin lowering policy rates this year and global economic expansion will continue, albeit
rate will decline gradually in 2024
and remain near its historical average 15 at a slower pace. The maturity wall in 2024 is manageable. While borrowing conditions are
Rating accuracy 20 still tight for speculative-grade companies, private/direct lending has provided an alternative
Methodology and data sources 22 source of funding for some. Geopolitics remains a risk, but our baseline does not anticipate
Appendix 24 an escalation that would materially raise the default rate. In downside scenarios entailing a
departure from these baseline assumptions on rates, growth or geopolitics, the default rate
could rise further, as shown below.
Contacts
Exhibit 1
Sharon Ou +1.212.553.4403 The global speculative-grade default rate will ease in 2024 but remain close to its long-term
VP-Sr Credit Officer/Mgr/CSR average
[email protected]
Forecast period
Yang Liu +1.212.553.2961 16%
12-month speculative-grade default rate

VP-Senior Analyst/CSR 14%

[email protected] 11.8%
12%
Kumar Kanthan +1.212.553.1428 10%
Senior Vice President/Mgr/CSR 8%
5.0% as of
7.4%
1/31/2024
[email protected]
6% 4.2%
Colin Ellis +44.20.7772.1609 4%
MD-Credit Strategy 2% 4.8%
3.6%
[email protected] end of 2023
0%
Atsi Sheth +1.212.553.7825 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MD-Global Head of Credit Strategy &

Research 1983-2023 Historical Baseline forecast Moderately pessimistic forecast Severely pessimistic forecast
[email protected] average

Alastair Wilson +44.20.7772.1372 Source: Moody's Investors Service

Chief Credit Officer
[email protected]
We republished this report on 21 March 2024 to add “Annual default study” to its title and on 27 March 2024 to correct
William Coley +44.20.7772.8799 data in Exhibit 34.
MD-Gbl Rtgs&Process Oversight - CSS
[email protected]
» Contacts continued on last page

CLIENT SERVICES
Americas 1-212-553-1653
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077
Japan 81-3-5408-4100
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Key highlights of our analysis include:

» Interest rate hikes, tighter financing conditions and lingering inflation drove up corporate defaults in 2023. A total of
159 corporate issuers that we rate defaulted in 2023, just surpassing the count of 157 in 2022. Excluding Russian defaults, which
accounted for 65 in the 2022 default tally and zero in 2023, the rise would have been substantial at 73%. Last year's default count
did not reach the 218 tally observed in 2020, with many of them spurred by the difficult economic conditions brought on by the
COVID-19 pandemic.

» Default trends varied across regions. Roughly two-thirds of the 2023 defaults were from North America. Within this region, US
defaults almost tripled to 105 in 2023 from 36 in 2022. By contrast, the default count fell substantially in Europe to 31 from 89,
driven by the decline in Russian defaults. Excluding Russian defaults, the European default count would have risen from 24 to 31.
Outside of these two regions, the default tally fell to 12 from 24 in Asia but jumped to nine from four in Latin America.

» Distressed exchanges (DEs) remained a prevalent approach in debt restructuring. Roughly 60% of last year’s defaults were
in the form of distressed exchanges. The share of DEs has been consistently high in recent years as they help preserve shareholders'
equity interest and avoid the expensive cost associated with a bankruptcy.

» Loan issuers were harder hit by interest rate hikes. The sharp increase in policy rates has put particular pressure on loan issuers
whose debt payments typically move up and down with prevailing interest rates. Among last year’s 159 defaults, 84 affected loans
only, 49 involved bonds only while the remaining 26 resulted in defaults in both.

» The global speculative-grade default rate will decline gradually in 2024 but remain near its historical average under our
baseline scenario. The rate rose to 4.8% at the end of 2023 from 4.3% a year earlier. We expect it to fall modestly to 3.6% in
2024. In contrast to the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic — two recent periods when the default rate rose
sharply and then fell quickly — we expect the default rate to stay near its historical average for longer this time against a backdrop
of moderating global economic growth in 2024, a gradual pace in interest rate normalization and re-default risk following DEs.

» We have also developed more pessimistic default scenarios and a more optimistic scenario, given the high degree of
uncertainty surrounding the global economy and geopolitical developments. The global default rate will exceed our baseline
expectations if economic and financial conditions are worse than our baseline assumptions. Under our moderately pessimistic
scenario, the rate would rise to 7.4% in 2024, higher than the pandemic peak of 6.9%. Under our severely pessimistic scenario, the
rate would jump to 11.8%, below the 13.4% peak during the global financial crisis.

» Default risk will be highest in durable consumer goods for the second year in a row. Under our baseline forecast, we project
there will be 100 corporate defaults across sectors in 2024, or roughly eight per month. We expect durable consumer goods to be
the most troubled sector measured by default rate (at 7.1%), while business services will be the riskiest sector measured by default
count, with eight.

» Credit quality weakened for the second consecutive year. Rating drift, which is calculated by the average upgraded notches
per issuer minus that of downgrades, came in at -6.3% of a rating notch for all of Moody’s-rated corporate issuers in 2023. The
comparable drift was -8.6% in 2022. Construction & building remained the most troubled sector when measured by rating drift.
China property developers accounted for most of the downgrades in this sector, reflecting a persistently difficult operating and
financing environment.

» Trading price implied bank loan recovery rate fell noticeably. The issuer-weighted average recovery rate for first-lien bank
loans declined to 59.6% in 2023 from 69.5% in 2022 and the long-term average of 65.0% since 1983. By contrast, the average
senior unsecured bond recovery rate increased to 33.4% from 30.9%, both below the long-term average of 37.6% since 1983.

» Average Default Position (AP) shows that our ratings have been successfully rank ordering credit risk. Since 1983, the
average one-year AP, a measure of rating accuracy, has been high at 91.2%. The metric came in at 91.7% last year, slightly above the
long-term average.

For inquiries on the underlying data, please contact [email protected].

2 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

About this report

This report is our 37th annual default study, in which we provide data on defaults, losses and rating transitions for corporate bond, loan and
deposit issuers over the past year and for the historical period since 1920. This study covers financial institutions, nonfinancial companies
and regulated utilities that have long-term debt ratings. Unless noted otherwise, ratings in this report are senior unsecured ratings (actual or
implied), which do not necessarily refer to the rating of a particular debt issue.

The study is based on a proprietary database of ratings and defaults for industrial and transportation companies, utilities and financial
institutions. This database covers the credit experiences of almost 30,000 companies that had long-term rated bonds, loans and/or deposits
between 1920 and 2023.

Defaults edged up globally with different trends across regions

In 2023, central banks in most major economies maintained hawkish policy stances to fight inflation, increasing borrowing costs for
most speculative-grade companies, particularly leveraged loan issuers. Higher funding costs, together with tighter financing conditions
following the first quarter's banking stress and the effects of lingering inflation, resulted in slower earnings growth, declining interest
coverage and a rise in corporate defaults.

Default count tripled in the US

A total of 159 rated corporate issuers defaulted in 2023, surpassing the year-earlier tally of 157. Approximately 40% of the 2022
defaults were from Russia, primarily stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and the sanctions against the country. If we exclude such
defaults — which are rare in the history of global defaults — the rise in defaults would have been substantial at 73%.1 Last year’s default
count was the second highest since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). The highest post-GFC level was in 2020 when 218 issuers
defaulted amid the difficult economic conditions resulting from COVID-19.

Measured by volume, issuers defaulted on roughly $150 billion of debt in 2023, comprising $77 billion in bonds and $74 billion in
loans (see Exhibit 2). Default volume was lower than 2022’s $153 billion and 2020’s $236 billion. Of the 159 defaults in 2023, one-
quarter of them affected at least $1 billion of debt each. The largest default was by Diamond Sports Group, LLC. The US regional sports
broadcasting company is the entity through which Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc. executed the acquisition of 21 regional sports networks
from Walt Disney Company (A2 stable) in 2019. Diamond Sports entered Chapter 11 in March aiming to renegotiate its broadcast
contracts with teams and to restructure its more than $8 billion of total debt stemming from Sinclair's 2019 acquisition.

Exhibit 2
The default count inched up in 2023 from 2022's elevated level driven by Russian defaults
Default count Default volume ($ billion)
300 $400

$350
250

$300

200
$250

150 $200

$150
100

$100

50
$50

0 $0
1971

1973

1976

1978

1981

1984

1986

1989

1991

1994

1997

1999

2002

2004

2007

2009

2012

2015

2017

2020

2022
1970

1972

1974
1975

1977

1979
1980

1982
1983

1985

1987
1988

1990

1992
1993

1995
1996

1998

2000
2001

2003

2005
2006

2008

2010
2011

2013
2014

2016

2018
2019

2021

2023

Source: Moody's Investors Service

3 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Default trends varied across regions. Roughly two-thirds of the 2023 defaults were by companies in North America. Within this region,
US company defaults almost tripled to 105 in 2023 from 36 in 2022. By contrast, the default count fell substantially in Europe to 31
from 89, resulting from the decline in Russian defaults. Excluding Russian defaults, the European default count would have risen from
24 to 31. Outside of these two regions, the default tally fell to 12 from 24 in Asia but jumped to nine from four in Latin America. In
terms of dollar volume, North American companies defaulted on about $101 billion debt, the most across regions. Companies in Asia-
Pacific and Europe followed with about $20 billion each.

Distressed exchanges (DEs) remained a prevalent approach in debt restructuring.

Measured by initial default type, 96 (or 60%) of last year’s defaults were in the form of distressed exchanges, up from 35% in 2022.
DEs' contribution would have been higher at 58% in 2022 if we exclude Russian defaults. DEs accounted for a relatively small share in
default types before the global financial crisis (see Exhibit 3). Since 2009, however, the share of DEs grew significantly and reached a
record high of 60% in 2023. DEs have become more common in debt restructurings because they help preserve shareholders’ equity
interest. In addition, they save time and avoid expensive costs that will occur in a bankruptcy. Private equity-owned companies are
more likely to execute DEs even before the troubled issuers run out of liquidity or are due to refinance, which in part explained the
extensive increase in the share of DEs in 2023. We note that initial DEs may not reduce debt enough to repair the capital structure to
more sustainable levels and re-default risk is higher post DEs than after bankruptcies.

Of the 63 non-DE defaults in 2023, missed debt payments triggered 35 (or 22%) of last year’s defaults. That left 28 cases (or 18%)
where bankruptcy was listed as the initial default type.

Exhibit 3
Distressed exchanges remained elevated in 2023
DE count (left axis) DE% (right axis)
120 70%

60%
100

50%
80

40%
60
30%

40
20%

20
10%

0 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Loan issuers were harder hit from rate hikes

The sharp increase in policy rates that began two years ago has put particular pressure on loan issuers whose debt payments typically
move up and down with prevailing interest rates. In comparison, bonds usually bear fixed rates and will likely not feel the pain of rate
hikes until they need refinancing. This led to more defaults in loans than bonds in 2023 as rate hikes materialized. Specifically, 84 of
last year’s defaults affected loans only, 49 involved bonds only and the remaining 26 resulted in defaults in both. In addition to rate
hikes, a few other factors also contributed to the surge in loan defaults last year. Leveraged loans grew rapidly during the easy money
era, becoming a mainstay for financially weaker borrowers and debt-financed buyouts and bear higher default risk. A good number of
leveraged loan issuers are owned by private equity firms which are more apt to execute distressed exchanges, as mentioned above.
Furthermore, banks have tightened lending standards, making it more difficult for weak loan issuers to refinance.

Speculative-grade default rate rose for the second year in a row

The issuer-weighted annual default rate for Moody's-rated speculative-grade corporate issuers increased to 4.8% at the end of 2023
from 4.3% in 2022 and 1.8% in 2021, but held below the 6.9% level in 2020 when the pandemic broke out (see Exhibit 4). Including
investment-grade issuers, the annual default rate for all Moody’s-rated corporate issuers held steady at 2.3% from 2022 to 2023. The

4 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

2023 year-end figures are higher than the 4.2% average one-year default rate since 1983 for speculative-grade issuers and the 1.7%
average for all rated corporate issuers.

Measured on a dollar-volume basis, the speculative-grade bond default rate jumped to 2.1% in 2023 from 1.6% in 2022 and the
comparable rate for all rated issuers held steady at 0.4%.2 In comparison, the dollar-weighted default rates in 2020 were 6.3% for
speculative-grade issuers and 1.0% for all rated issuers.

Exhibit 4
The default rate rose for speculative-grade issuers but stabilized for all issuers*
All corporates default rate Speculative-grade default rate
18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
* Issuer-weighted.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

Business services had the most defaults by sector in 2023

The sector had 15 defaults, 13 of which were DEs. All of the defaulters in the sector were highly levered and most also suffered from
weak liquidity. The healthcare & pharmaceuticals sector was the second largest contributor of defaults, with 13 (see Exhibit 5). Most
of defaulters in this sector also had excessive leverage and weak liquidity. In 2023, the sector continued to contend with a raft of
difficulties in the industry, including labor cost inflation and pressure from private and public payers to reduce costs. In addition to
higher funding costs due to higher interest rates, refinancing became more difficult as lenders' appetite for highly-leveraged capital
structures markedly decreased.

When measured by dollar volume, healthcare & pharmaceuticals defaults stood at the top of the list with 13.3% of the total. The
next highest sector by dollar volume was retail, with a 12.7% share of defaults. Although the retail sector only had 10 defaults, six of
them had defaulted on more than $1 billion of debt. In 2023, the sector faced increasing financial pressure from years of high inflation,
depleted excess consumer savings and higher interest rates.

5 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 5
Healthcare & pharmaceuticals had the highest default volume and second highest default count*

2023 2022
Panel B: Percent by volume
Panel A: Percent by count
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

Aerospace & Defense

Automotive
Banking
Beverage, Food, & Tobacco
Capital Equipment
Chemicals, Plastics, & Rubber
Construction & Building
Consumer goods: Durable
Consumer goods: Non-durable
Containers, Packaging, & Glass
Energy: Electricity
Energy: Oil & Gas
Environmental Industries
Finance**
Forest Products & Paper
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals
High Tech Industries
Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure
Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing
Media: Broadcasting & Subscription
Media: Diversified & Production
Metals & Mining
REIT
Retail
Services: Business
Services: Consumer
Telecommunications
Transportation: Cargo
Transportation: Consumer
Utilities: Electric
Utilities: Oil & Gas

*We omitted those industries that had no defaults in 2022 and 2023.
** Non-bank and non-insurance financial companies.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

Although the business services sector had the most defaults in 2023, its default rate was not the highest because of its relatively large
portfolio — i.e. the denominator is big. Durable consumer goods is the sector with the highest default rate, at 12.1%. This sector is a
relatively small one dominated by issuers with corporate family rating of single B or below. Defaults rose sharply in this sector last
year after product demand weakened because of surging prices, higher interest rates and as consumers shifted spending to travel,
entertainment and other experiences after the pandemic. In addition, some financially weak companies that increased debt in recent
years for leveraged buyouts and acquisitions found it difficult to service debt with rising funding costs and refinance in a tougher
lending environment.

On the other hand, the default rate for the business services sector was lower at 3.7% (see Exhibit 6).

6 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 6
Durable consumer goods had the highest one-year default rate in 2023*
2023 2022
Default rate
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Aerospace & Defense

Automotive
Banking
Beverage, Food, & Tobacco
Capital Equipment
Chemicals, Plastics, & Rubber
Construction & Building
Consumer goods: Durable
Consumer goods: Non-durable
Containers, Packaging, & Glass
Energy: Electricity
Energy: Oil & Gas
Environmental Industries
Finance**
Forest Products & Paper
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals
High Tech Industries
Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure
Insurance
Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing
Media: Broadcasting & Subscription
Media: Diversified & Production
Metals & Mining
REIT
Retail
Services: Business
Services: Consumer
Sovereign & Public Finance
Telecommunications
Transportation: Cargo
Transportation: Consumer
Utilities: Electric
Utilities: Oil & Gas
Utilities: Water
Wholesale

*Issuer-weighted and includes investment-grade and speculative-grade issuers.

** Non-bank and non-insurance financial companies.
Companies in the sovereign and public finance sectors are government-related financial and nonfinancial corporate issuers.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

Loan recovery rates fell noticeably

In this section, we discuss recovery rates measured by two methods: one measured by trading price for defaulted debt and the other
measured by the actual value that creditors realize at the resolution of a default event, i.e., ultimate recovery rates.

Exhibit 7 shows the trading price implied recovery rates over the past two years, as well as their long-term averages since 1983. On
average, recovery rates have generally correlated with the priority of claim in the capital structure for four decades, with a higher
priority of claim enjoying a higher average rate of recovery.3 For example, recovery rates on first-lien bank loans average 65.0% on an
issuer-weighted basis and 61.9% on a dollar-volume basis, for the highest recovery rates across security classes. This makes sense given
first-lien bank loans' secured nature and seniority in the capital structure.

The exhibit further shows that the issuer-weighted average first-lien loan recovery rate was 59.6% in 2023, down noticeably from
69.5% in 2022. The 2023 first-lien loan recovery rate was also low by historical standards, with the comparable rate averaging 65.0%
since 1983. The low recovery rate in last year’s first lien loans reflected weaker credit quality and structural deterioration, the latter

7 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

resulting from the increase of loan-only structures in recent years. In the worst cases, some first-lien bank loans are becoming bond-like
and act as buffers for asset-based loans which are structurally more senior. Moreover, nearly 40% of the loan recovery rates came from
re-defaulters, whose debt tends to have lower recovery rates in subsequent defaults. Last but not least, covenant-lite documentation
has allowed asset-stripping and priming that tends to diminish recovery prospects for existing secured creditors.

On the bond side, the recovery rate for senior unsecured bonds rose to an average 33.4% in 2023 from 30.9% rate in 2022. This
compares to the long-term average of 37.6%.

Measured by dollar volume, the first-lien loan recovery rate declined to an average 53.6% in 2023 from 58.1% in 2022. For senior
unsecured bonds, the volume-weighted average recovery rate increased to 30.9% in 2023 from 21.9% in 2022. Some of the average
recovery rates in 2023 are based on small samples (see observation counts in Exhibit 8).

Exhibit 7
Average corporate debt recovery rates measured by trading prices
Issuer-weighted recoveries Dollar-weighted recoveries

Priority Position 2023 2022 1983-2023 2023 2022 1983-2023

1st Lien Bank Loan 59.6% 69.5% 65.0% 53.6% 58.1% 61.9%
2nd Lien Bank Loan 40.0% 54.7% 34.4% 44.6% 52.2% 33.9%
Sr. Unsecured Bank Loan n.a. n.a. 46.3% n.a. n.a. 43.9%
1st Lien Bond 53.5% 58.2% 54.8% 47.0% 52.7% 54.7%
2nd Lien Bond 31.4% 64.7% 43.4% 13.1% 30.2% 37.3%
Sr. Unsecured Bond 33.4% 30.9% 37.6% 30.9% 21.9% 33.4%
Sr. Subordinated Bond 63.5% n.a. 31.1% 63.5% n.a. 26.6%
Subordinated Bond 6.7% 18.2% 31.7% 4.3% 10.6% 27.3%
Jr. Subordinated Bond 0.8% n.a. 21.5% 0.8% n.a. 11.8%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Exhibit 8
Recovery observation counts and dollar volume
Issuer counts Dollar volume (in $ billions)

Priority Position 2023 2022 1983-2023 2023 2022 1983-2023

1st Lien Bank Loan 84 32 752 49 29 478

2nd Lien Bank Loan 24 7 150 10 1 36
Sr. Unsecured Bank Loan 0 0 71 0 0 39
1st Lien Bond 30 18 459 20 20 225
2nd Lien Bond 7 2 115 5 1 61
Sr. Unsecured Bond 48 70 1328 41 80 1029
Sr. Subordinated Bond 1 0 517 0 0 118
Subordinated Bond 4 3 423 2 1 86
Jr. Subordinated Bond 1 0 28 1 0 5

Source: Moody's Investors Service

8 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

2023 saw more US corporate defaults and subpar ultimate recoveries across the board
Another measure of recovery rates is ultimate recoveries, or the value that creditors realize at the resolution of a default event. Using
bankruptcy as an example, the ultimate recovery is the present value of the cash or securities that creditors receive when the debt issuer exits
bankruptcy, which typically occurs one to two years following the initial default date. Exhibit 9 shows data on ultimate recovery rates for
North American nonfinancial companies included in Moody’s Ultimate Recovery Database (URD).4

In 2023, the US experienced its highest default tally since the pandemic, a stark contrast to the below-average default rates seen in 2022,
which were primarily driven by distressed exchanges (DEs) executed by nonfinancial corporates. Despite DEs constituting approximately two-
thirds of all US defaults, bankruptcy filings among our rated debt issuers surged dramatically to 25 in 2023 from eight in 2022.

Approximately half of the companies that filed for bankruptcy in 2023 have exited their court-supervised debt restructurings. However, the
average recoveries on defaulted debt were lower than those realized in 2022, as well as long-term historical averages. For example, the 12
companies that filed for and exited bankruptcy protection recovered just 37% at the corporate family level, significantly below the historical
average of 50%.

Besides idiosyncratic company-specific issues, some of the reasons behind such poor recovery rates in this rather small data sample can
be explained by companies choosing increasingly to equitize most part of their debt structure, with market valuations staying low in their
respective sectors and pressured by high interest rates. In addition, three companies in our sample had a single debt class structure comprised
solely of first-lien secured loans and fared only a 26% recovery at the enterprise level, thereby skewing the overall recovery average of the
2023 sample.

All in all in 2023, of the 12 resolved bankruptcies, nine recovered below the historical average of 50% at a firm-wide level. However, three
distressed exchanges executed by public debt issuers on average fared 85% at a family level, lifting the overall recovery average for 15 defaults
from 2023 to around 46%.

Exhibit 9
Average debt ultimate recovery rates, 1987-2023
Emergence year Default year
Debt type 2023 2022 1987-2023 2023 2022 1987-2023
Revolvers* 75.6% 94.5% 86.5% 81.2% 82.7% 86.5%
Term loans** 54.6% 73.6% 71.1% 49.1% 67.6% 71.1%
Senior secured bonds 49.2% 81.5% 61.7% 39.0% 84.5% 61.7%
Senior unsecured bonds 19.3% 40.9% 46.9% 12.4% 46.6% 46.9%
Subordinated bonds ─ ─ 27.9% ─ ─ 27.9%
The Moody's Ultimate Recovery Database primarily covers default resolutions of US nonfinancial companies. The emergence year column refers to recovery rates of companies that
resolved their defaults that year regardless of when they defaulted. The default year column refers to recovery rates of companies that both defaulted and resolved their defaults in
that same year.
* Includes cash revolvers and borrowing base facilities.
** Includes all types of term loans: first-, second-lien and unsecured
Source: Moody's Ultimate Recovery Database

If we look at 2023 family recoveries from another vantage point and include additional four companies that filed for bankruptcy in 2022
but emerged in 2023, the recovery rate still remains subpar at around 46%. Half of the additional bankruptcies filed in 2022 also performed
poorly, with names like Phoenix Services International and Cineworld Group fully equitizing their funded debt. Despite not being widespread,
three defaulted debt issuers in our sample, namely Serta Simmons, Envision Healthcare and Cineworld, engaged in liability management
transactions (LMTs) as part of their DEs. However, these attempts at debt restructuring ultimately led to their subsequent bankruptcy filings
in 2023 and 2022. As a consequence of these DEs, primed legacy loans, which were once first-lien secured credit facilities, in some instances,
ended up at the bottom of the priority waterfall and were largely wiped out. Depending on which first-lien loan claims creditors held, debt
recoveries for this class varied dramatically, ranging from 100% to a mere 4%, as was the case with Serta Simmons. This broad range of
recovery rates for first-lien secured facilities, particularly in bankruptcy filings following LMTs, resulted in a substantial 40% standard deviation
for loan recoveries.

9 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

A majority of loans in our 2023 sample were first-lien secured loans and the 55% loan recovery rate as seen in our exhibit was mainly derived
from 43 defaulted first-lien secured term loan tranches — including two tranches which were not impacted in DEs — and four junior lien loans
which were originated as second- or third-lien term loans.

In addition, we continue to see a bifurcation in recovery averages of revolvers (at 76%) and term loans (55%) with most defaulted revolvers in
our sample being super-senior asset-based facilities and recovering all of the money for their creditors upon default.

For the bonds, senior secured bonds restructuring in 2023 did significantly worse with a 49% recovery rate when compared both to its 2022
average and the historical average of 62%. Of the 18 secured bonds in our sample, the majority diverged from the 2022 trend, stemming from
bankruptcies and primarily receiving new equity at settlement. However, this new equity was not valued sufficiently in the current market to
cover the debt owed to investors.

Unsurprisingly, a sample of 18 unsecured bonds fared even worse in 2023 defaults with an average recovery rate of just 19 cents on the dollar,
compared to 41% recovered in 2022. Meanwhile, in 2022, of the 27 unsecured bonds in our data set, around half were restructured out of
court, benefiting debt recoveries.

In summary, as we delve further into the distressed exchanges carried out by private equity-owned debt issuers which constituted most our
2023 defaulters — and as businesses continue to emerge from their bankruptcy proceedings — the debt-level recovery rates we have discussed
will likely evolve. However, given a growing number of loan-only debt structures among defaulters, we anticipate the recovery rate for this
class of debt to remain below its historical average of 70 cents on the dollar

Credit losses edged lower in 2023, resulting from lower loss-given-defaults

Exhibit 10 shows annual average credit loss rates from 1983 through 2023 for all rated corporate issuers. These rates are a function of
both the probability of default and loss given default (LGD), or 1-recovery rates. The exhibit indicates that the average credit loss rate
among all rated issuers eased to 1.5% in 2023 from 1.6% in 2022. Historically, the average annual credit loss rate for all Moody's-rated
corporate issuers has been 1.0% since 1983.

Exhibit 10
Lower losses for investment-grade credits offset by higher losses for speculative-grade issuers
Investment-grade corporates Speculative-grade corporates All corporates

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Credit quality deteriorated for the second consecutive year

Rating downgrades outpaced upgrades in two-thirds of sectors
The aggregate credit quality of Moody’s-rated issuers deteriorated last year against the backdrop of higher interest rates, tighter
financing conditions and stress in sectors such as banking and construction & building. This is reflected in rating drift, which is
calculated by the average upgraded notches per issuer minus the average downgraded notches per issuer. By definition, a positive drift

10 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

indicates overall improvement in credit quality, while a negative drift signals deterioration. In 2023, rating drift was -6.3% of a notch,
the second consecutive year where the drift was in the negative zone that indicates more downgrades than upgrades (see Exhibit 11). In
comparison, the drift was -8.6% a year earlier including Russian issuers and -1.8% if Russian issuers were excluded.

Exhibit 11
Rating downgrades dominated rating actions for the second year*
Percent of one notch

Negative rating drift Positive rating drift

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002
1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023
*Rating drift is measured by the average upgraded notches per issuer minus the average downgraded notches per issuer.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

Across sectors, construction and building had the most negative drift at -42.3% (see Exhibit 12). China property developers accounted
for most of the downgrades in this sector reflecting a persistently difficult operating and financing environment. Although the
government has stepped up policy support, property sales remained sluggish under slowing economic conditions. In addition, offshore
funding remained largely closed for financially weak issuers, which led to multiple-notch downgrades for some including Country
Garden Holdings Company Limited (Ca negative), a leading integrated property developer.

11 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
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Exhibit 12
Two-thirds of sectors had negative drift in 2023
(% of rating notch)

2023 2022 Rating drift

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Aerospace & Defense

Automotive
Banking
Beverage, Food, & Tobacco
Capital Equipment
Chemicals, Plastics, & Rubber
Construction & Building
Consumer goods: Durable
Consumer goods: Non-durable
Containers, Packaging, & Glass
Energy: Electricity
Energy: Oil & Gas
Environmental Industries
Finance*
Forest Products & Paper
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals
High Tech Industries
Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure
Insurance
Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing
Media: Broadcasting & Subscription
Media: Diversified & Production
Metals & Mining
REIT
Retail
Services: Business
Services: Consumer
Sovereign & Public Finance
Telecommunications
Transportation: Cargo
Transportation: Consumer
Utilities: Electric
Utilities: Oil & Gas
Utilities: Water
Wholesale

* Non-bank and non-insurance financial companies.

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Investment-grade issuers remained more resilient to macro challenges

In 2023, ratings of investment-grade issuers continued to be more stable than those of speculative-grade issuers. This can be seen
in Exhibit 13, which presents the one-year rating transition matrix. Each cell of the matrix shows the percentage of issuers that held
a given row's rating at the beginning of 2023 and have since migrated to a rating or state (including rating withdrawal and default)
indicated in the column heading at the end of 2023.5

The exhibit shows that the numbers in the diagonal are greater for investment-grade rating categories than in the speculative-grade
universe. Lower triangular elements reflect net upgrades and upper triangular elements reflect net downgrades. Generally speaking,
the further one moves away from the diagonal, the smaller the transition rates. This reflects a relatively low probability of issuers
experiencing large rating actions during the course of a year.

12 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

For investors who are interested in the crossover risk between investment-grade and speculative-grade ratings, the fallen angel rate
held steady at 1.2% from 2022 to 2023, below the long-term average of 2.0%. Similarly, the rising star rate also stabilized at 0.9% in
the last two years, also below its long-term average of 2.3%. Across sectors, REITs had the most fallen angels. In addition to company-
specific reasons, some of the downgrades in this sector reflected our concern of the difficult leasing environment, particularly for office
real estate.

13 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 13
Ratings continued to be more stable among investment-grade issuers in 2023
Quadrants
I I: Rating migration from IG to SG Rating
II (Fallen Downgrade
Angel)
II: Raing migration within IG
III III: Rating migration from SG to IG Rating
(Rising IV Upgrade
Stars)
IV: Rating migration within SG

Probability Heat Map

10 < P 5 < P < 10 1<P<5 0-1 1<P<5 5 < P < 10 10 < P

⮜⮜ ⮜⮜ Upgrade ⮜⮜ ⮜⮜ ⮞⮞ ⮞⮞ Downgrade ⮞⮞ ⮞ ⮞

Rating Transition Matrix Definition

The matrix summarizes the cumulative changes in credit ratings over a given time horizon, meaning they describe the final
position ( ⮞ TO ) of a credit rating given its initial position ( ⮞ FROM ).

⮞ TO: Final rating position at the end of year (December 31, 2023)
Investment Grade (IG) Speculative Grade (SG)
Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa2 Caa3 Ca-C WR DEF

Aaa 98.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Aa1 0.0 88.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0

Aa2 0.0 1.7 94.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0
⮞ FROM: Initial rating position in the beginning of year (January 1, 2023)

Investment Grade (IG)

Aa3 0.0 0.0 1.2 96.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0

A1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 90.1 3.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0

A2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 86.9 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0

A3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 83.8 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.4

Baa1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 85.1 4.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.1

Baa2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8 82.9 3.8 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.1

Baa3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 82.0 2.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0

Ba1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 11.1 77.8 3.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 0.0

Ba2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 79.1 5.1 1.7 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0

Ba3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.7 7.4 69.8 3.1 2.7 1.9 2.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 4.7 1.9
Speculative Grade (SG)

B1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 9.5 66.9 5.8 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.0 0.4 8.4 0.7

B2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2 12.1 65.6 10.5 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.0 5.5 0.4

B3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 9.9 68.4 9.0 3.0 0.9 0.0 3.9 0.9

Caa1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 7.3 60.1 13.2 4.2 0.5 10.1 2.8

Caa2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 4.6 70.3 7.6 2.9 9.7 3.9

Caa3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.8 56.2 14.2 9.1 12.3

Ca-C 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 32.8 12.3 51.6

Data in percentages.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

14 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

The global speculative-grade default rate will decline gradually in 2024 and remain near its historical
average
We expect the default rate to end this year at 3.6%
After finishing at 4.8% at the end of 2023, the global speculative-grade default rate edged higher to 5% for the 12-month ended
in January. In the coming months, we expect defaults will gradually normalize, falling from the higher levels that resulted from the
pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and interest rate hikes. Our Credit Transition Model predicts that January's 5% default rate will mark
the peak of the current cycle and that the global speculative-grade default rate will decline modestly to 3.6% by year-end under our
baseline scenario (see Exhibit 14). If realized, the global default rate will finish this year at a level close to its historical average of 4.2%.

Exhibit 14
The speculative-grade default rate will decline moderately in 2024

Trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate

Actual Baseline forecast 1983-2023 average

14%

12%

10%

8%

6% 1983-2023
average: 4.2%
4%

2%

0%
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Our default rate forecast is underpinned by our expectation that major central banks will begin policy rate normalization by lowering
rates this year, which will boost borrowers’ ability to cover interest expenses, especially in the loan market. The maturity wall in 2024
is manageable as many companies have pushed out near-term maturities in the past few years. In addition, private/direct lending has
and will continue to provide an alternative source of debt refinancing for some small and low-rated borrowers when they cannot access
the syndicated loan market. In terms of macro conditions, we expect the economy in the US, where most of the defaults typically
arise, to continue growing, although at a slower pace this year. While geopolitical developments will prompt market fluctuations and
macroeconomic uncertainty, we do not expect them to escalate to levels that would have a materially negative effect on corporate
defaults.

Our model’s prediction is also in line with what high-yield spreads, strong predictors of defaults, imply. The spreads remain tight
and are currently comfortably below the long-term average in both the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we expect them to widen
in both regions from the current low base. Specifically, we assume the US high-yield spread will widen from about 323 basis points
(bps) currently to the average of 486 bps in the fourth quarter and remain below its long-term average of about 500 bps. Similarly,
we assume the European high yield spread to widen from 343 bps to 524 bps, also below its historical average. In terms of the
unemployment rate — another macro input in our default forecasting model — we assume the US unemployment rate will rise from
the current 3.7% to around 4.5% in the final quarter of 2024, while the European rate will edge slightly higher from 6.6% to 6.7%.6

Unlike in 2008-09 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic — two recent periods when the spike in defaults was steep but short-
lived — we expect the peak default rate will be lower this time and that the rate will not fall rapidly from that peak. That is because this
cycle is mainly driven by higher funding costs as opposed to a wide-scale earnings recession. The risks are much more idiosyncratic and
centered on credits with overlevered capital structures and that have borrowed heavily in the loan market. Other factors that support

15 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
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the default rate holding near its historical average in 2024 are moderating global economic growth, the expected gradual interest rate
normalization and re-default risk following DEs.

The global default rate will exceed our baseline forecast if risks crystallize
The default rate will exceed our baseline forecasts if certain economic and financial risks crystallize. First, there is still uncertainty
surrounding the path of interest rate normalization as inflation's “last mile” is unlikely to be uniform across countries and occasional
bumps will complicate policymaking and keep markets on edge. If inflation accelerates severely again, that could force central banks
to raise benchmark interest rates, prompting economic recessions. Corporate earnings and cash flow will be negatively affected and
default risk will rise.

Another risk is the global economy. If economic growth in the US decelerates more meaningfully than expected and Europe ultimately
falls into a severe recession, consumer spending will slow, hurting corporate revenue and debt servicing abilities.

In 2023, stress in the banking sector was evident as Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening negatively impacted some US banks. Banks were
more subject to liabilities repricing and the Fed quantitative tightening (QT) added additional pressure to US banks’ liabilities. In the
US, there are no quantitative limits in bank regulation on interest rate risk. Some banks focused on interest rate risk despite limited
regulation; but others did not. Banks that over-focused on net interest income measures during the pandemic ended up with high levels
of residential mortgages, fixed rate commercial real estate loans or long-dated fixed rate securities and, in turn, negative economic
capital when rates rose and deposits proved less core than anticipated. Uninsured bank creditors worried about significant unrealized
economic losses not captured in most US banks’ regulatory capital which was a negative shock to confidence sensitive funding that
spread. Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic and Signature Bank went into FDIC receivership. As we head into 2024, the US banking sector
outlook remains negative with 40% of the rated universe on negative outlook and some banks are still sensitive to confidence shocks,
high levels of fixed rate assets and rising asset quality risks related to commercial real estate. Banks are important providers of credit,
particularly to small businesses who employ most the US labor force. Renewed or heightened stress in the US banking sector could
negatively affect credit availability and, in turn, have negative corporate credit and economic implications.

The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Hamas and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine are also worth noting. If the
conflicts intensify, the global economy will worsen and inflation could increase. This could also cause a renewed energy shock, resulting
in severely negative economic outcomes and an increase in corporate defaults.

Other risks include the potential for China's economic recovery to disappoint, with negative spillovers to global growth and credit
conditions. In addition, there is a heavy calendar of elections globally, which could reshape policy priorities.

Amid these uncertainties, we have developed a few scenarios that are more pessimistic than our baseline and one scenario that is
more optimistic. Since risks are skewed toward higher numbers, we present default rate forecasts under various pessimistic scenarios
in Exhibit 15. In this exhibit, we apply the same rating histories and current ratings in all scenarios so that the only factors driving the
different forecasts are economic assumptions. As the exhibit shows, the global default rate could climb above our baseline expectations
if economic and financial conditions turn out worse than our baseline assumptions.

Under our moderately pessimistic (downside 10%) scenario, the global default rate would rise to 7.4% in 2024, which is a bit higher
than the pandemic peak of 6.9%. Under our severely pessimistic scenario (the downside 4% scenario), the rate would jump to 11.8%,
which would be lower than the peak of 13.4% during the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

If global economic and financing conditions are better than expected, the optimistic scenario would unfold. Under this scenario, the
global default rate would fall to 3.1% by the end of 2024. This optimistic scenario assumes a smaller widening in the average high-yield
spread to 449 bps in the US and 488 bps in Europe. We assume the unemployment rate would improve in both regions, to 3.1% and
6.3% respectively.

16 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 15
Default rate forecasts under alternative scenarios
The downside 25% The downside 10% The downside 4%
Scenario Baseline
scenario scenario scenario
Probability that the economy will perform better 50% 75% 90% 96%
Scenario description
Probability that the economy will perform worse 50% 25% 10% 4%

US unemployment* 4.5% 6.5% 7.6% 8.2%

Assumptions for 2024
US HY spread* 486 bps 666 bps 715 bps 871 bps
2023 actual 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Speculative-grade default rate
2024 forecast 3.6% 4.9% 7.4% 11.8%

* Average in Q4 2024.
Sources: Bloomberg, Moody's Analytics and Moody's Investors Service

We expect the durable consumer goods sector to have the highest default rate again
Under our baseline forecast, we project 100 corporate defaults in 2024, or roughly eight per month. Across sectors, we expect that
durable consumer goods will have the highest default rate, at 7.1%. We anticipate 2024 will continue to present difficulties for durable
goods manufacturers, driven by our expectations that economic growth will slow in the US and remain subdued in the euro area. This
will result in weak demand and earnings pressure for durable consumer goods companies. The sector is also dominated with issuers
with corporate family rating of single B or below and many are highly leveraged following a debt splurge in recent years, making them
vulnerable to higher for longer interest rates, economic shocks and financial market risks.

When measured by default count, we forecast the business services sector will have eight defaults, the most across sectors, because of
its relatively larger number of low-rated companies. A good portion of the sector's debt maturing in the coming two years is held from
companies with weak credit quality, which presents refinancing risk under tight financing conditions.

Exhibit 16 shows one-year default rate forecasts for all Moody's-rated companies by industry, using the same economic assumption
for all industries. The factors driving the different forecast default rates include rating histories, current ratings and the watch/outlook
statuses.

17 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 16
Moody's CTM forecasts that durable consumer goods will have the highest default rate in 2024

CTM forecast* EDF forecast** 2023

One-year corporate default rate forecasts by industry
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Aerospace & Defense

Automotive

Banking

Beverage, Food, & Tobacco

Capital Equipment

Chemicals, Plastics, & Rubber

Construction & Building

Consumer goods: Durable

Consumer goods: Non-durable

Containers, Packaging, & Glass

Energy: Electricity

Energy: Oil & Gas

Environmental Industries

Finance***

Forest Products & Paper

Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals

High Tech Industries

Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure

Insurance

Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing

Media: Broadcasting & Subscription

Media: Diversified & Production

Metals & Mining

REIT

Retail

Services: Business

Services: Consumer

Sovereign & Public Finance

Telecommunications

Transportation: Cargo

Transportation: Consumer

Utilities: Electric

Utilities: Oil & Gas

Utilities: Water

Wholesale

*CTM forecast is based on Moody’s CTM.

**EDF forecast is based on Moody’s KMV Model.
*** Non-bank and non-insurance financial companies.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

The exhibit also shows the default rate forecast implied by Expected Default Frequency (EDF).7 The EDF-implied default rate forecast
includes rated and unrated issuers. EDF metrics are forward-looking probabilities of default generated by Moody’s EDF model, which
belongs to a class of credit risk models referred to as structural models. Their basic assumption is that there is a causal, economically
motivated reason why companies default. In particular, the EDF model assumes that default is highly likely to occur when the market
value of a company's assets is insufficient to cover its liabilities at some future date – in other words, when it is insolvent. EDF-implied
ratings may indicate different default outlooks compared with those from Moody's CTM. For example, EDF-implied ratings suggest
that the media: broadcasting & subscription sector will have the highest default rate. This indication reflects the volatility in the equity

18 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
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market, which may not be fully captured in rating actions. In addition, the EDF-implied default rate may also be higher in some sectors
because that portfolio includes some unrated issuers that may have relatively weak credit quality.

The fallen angel rate will likely rise toward its historical mean
In this section, we use Moody's CTM to predict fallen angel rates based on the same macro assumptions as in our baseline scenario for
the default rate forecast. Our model predicts fallen angel rates for Baa-rated companies will rise to 3.2% in 2024 from 2.2% in 2023.
Similarly, the model predicts that the fallen angel rate for the entire investment-grade universe will climb to 1.8% from 1.2% under our
forecasts (see Exhibit 17). These forecasts, if realized, will remain low by historical standards.

Exhibit 17
Fallen angel (FA) rate will likely rise in 2024
IG FA rate (actual) IG FA rate (forecast) Baa FA rate (actual) Baa FA (forecast)
14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Loan recovery rate will likely remain low by historical standards

In 2024, we expect leveraged loans will continue to disproportionately default more than high-yield bonds in the US, where most of
the defaults come from. The disproportionate defaults will reflect the difference in ratings and the prevalence of senior secured loan-
only leveraged buyouts exposed to more expensive floating-rate debt. However, the gap between loan and bond defaults may narrow
because the positive effects from policy rate cuts will be reflected faster on loans. In comparison, it will take longer for the effects to
materialize on bonds.

In terms of the recovery outlook, our loss given default assessments (LGDAs) at the beginning of this year indicate that recoveries for
senior secured loans will remain low this year. Specifically, we expect the average recovery rates of first-lien senior secured bank loans
to be 57.6% across all sectors in North America and Europe in the event they all default in 2024 (see Exhibit 18). This is lower than the
long-term average recovery rate of 65.0% measured by trading prices. We expect that weak credit quality and structural deterioration
will continue to put pressure on loan recoveries in 2024.

We remain concerned about the lack of credit protections in current loan agreements. Less-restrictive credit documentation provides
borrowers with a greater set of options that may allow them to delay or avoid a default. However, that also increases the risk of further
erosion for first-lien bank lenders because certain cov-lite deals provide greater allowances for collateral transfers to unrestricted
subsidiaries, which raises the risk of issuers being more stressed ahead of default, therefore lowering recovery rates. Another trend
is that, in recent years, there were asset-stripping and priming financing transactions where companies needed more liquidity and a
subset of the existing lender group provided capital while “up-tiering” existing holdings into a super-priority tranche. This had the effect
of reducing the recovery for creditors who did not participate in the new money transaction even though their papers were still labeled
as first lien. Given the covenant flexibility in recent loan and bond vintages, we expect these kinds of liability management transactions
to continue when corporate obligors encounter liquidity difficulties.

19 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 18
LGDAs suggest first-lien loan recovery rate will remain below 60% in 2024
Actual recovery rate Recovery rate forecast

100.0%

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Rating accuracy
Our ratings have historically proven to be effective predictors of default (see Exhibit 19). The exhibit plots the median ratings of more
than 3,000 corporate issuers that defaulted from 1983 to 2023. The exhibit demonstrates that, historically, rated issuers have been
downgraded to B2 as early as five years before default. The median rating has been B3 one year before default since 1983. Among
last year’s defaulters, the median rating one year before default was Caa2, two notches below the rating measured over the entire
1983-2023 period.

Exhibit 19
Median ratings before default, 2023 vs. long-term average
2023 1983-2023

Ba1

Ba2

Ba3

B1

B2

B3

Caa1

Caa2

Caa3

Ca

60 48 36 24 12 0

Months prior to default

Source: Moody's Investors Service

The evolution of median ratings demonstrates that our corporate ratings correlate with subsequent default experiences. To further
demonstrate the ability of ratings to separate issuers with low credit risk from those with high credit risk, we use the Average Default
Position (AP) of defaults to evaluate ordinal accuracy of our ratings (see Exhibit 20).

AP measures the average position of defaulters, with position defined as the percentage of issuers with higher or equal ratings. A
greater AP indicates a more discriminatory rating system because there are more issuers rated higher than the defaulters, or that
defaulters are generally found in lower rating categories. The AP of defaults was consistently high during the 1983-2023 period, with an
average of 91.2% for the one-year horizon and 86.4% for the five-year horizon. These percentages indicate that our ratings have been

20 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

effective in predicting defaults over both the short and long term. In 2023, the one-year AP rebounded sharply to 91.7% from 74.3% in
2002 when high-rated Russian issuers defaulted due to sanction.

Exhibit 20
One- and five-year AP by cohort year, 1983-2023
One-year average default position Five-year average default position
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

AP measures how well ratings rank-ordered default risk over the measured horizon.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

21 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Methodology and data sources

Moody's definition of default
Our definition of default is applicable only to debt or debtlike obligations (for example, swap agreements). For details, please refer to
Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions.

Methodology
The methodology used in this study can be found in the Glossary of Moody’s Ratings Performance Metrics. The glossary is a technical
paper that explains how we calculate default rates, transition rates and rating performance metrics in detail.

Changes in this year's report

We occasionally discover historical defaults, leading to minor revisions of the historical data. As always, the data contained in our most
recently published default study supersede the data in previous reports.

Data sources
We base the results of this study on our proprietary database of ratings and defaults for corporate bond and loan issuers. Municipal and
sub-sovereign debt issuers, structured finance securities, private placements and issuers with only short-term debt ratings are excluded
unless otherwise noted. In total, our data covers the credit experiences of nearly 30,000 corporate issuers that sold long-term public
debt at some time between 1920 and 2023. As of January 1, 2023, close to 7,000 corporate issuers held a Moody’s long-term bond,
loan, deposit or corporate family rating.

Our database of corporate defaults covers more than 5,000 long-term bond and loan defaults by rated and nonrated issuers.
Additional data sources, such as Bloomberg’s Fixed Income Index data, supplemented our proprietary data in the construction of the
aggregate dollar volume-weighted default rates. Defaulted bond pricing data was derived from Bloomberg, Refinitiv, ICE Data Services
and TRACE. Most of these market quotes represent an actual bid on the debt instrument, although no trade may have occurred at
that price. Over the 1983-2023 period, the data set includes post-default prices for more than 6,000 defaulted instruments issued by
over 2,000 defaulting corporations. We make the 1970-2023 credit rating, default and recovery rate data used in this study available
through the Default and Recovery Database.

Guide to data tables and charts in appendix

In this section, we briefly describe the interpretation of some of the exhibits contained in this report. Exhibit 19 was derived by mapping
our ratings to a linear scale, then taking the median values of the numerically mapped ratings. Exhibit 28 shows average senior
unsecured recovery rates by letter rating and year before default. Each cell in the table indicates the average recovery rate on senior
unsecured bonds with a specific rating within T years of default. For example, the 36.0% two-year B recovery rate reported in Exhibit
28 indicates the average recovery rate on B- rated issues that default at some time within a two-year period, not recovery rate for
issuers rated B exactly two years before default.

Exhibits 38 through 42 show issuer-weighted historical average default rates by rating category over various investment horizons.
These data were generated by averaging the multiyear default rates of cohorts formed at monthly intervals. In addition to their being
statements of historical fact, these data are also useful proxies for expected default rates. For example, over a five-year period a
portfolio of B-rated issuers defaulted at a 20.2% average rate between 1983 and 2023 (see Exhibit 40). For an investor with a five-
year exposure to a B-rated debt obligation or counterparty, this estimate also happens to be the best estimate of the expected risk of
default for a B-rated exposure based on the available historical data, particularly over long investment horizons.

Exhibit 46 shows average cumulative volume-weighted default rates by rating category. Whereas issuer-based default rates weight
each issuer equally, these data weight each issuer by the total volume of defaulted bonds, so larger defaults receive relatively more
weight. Average default rates based on bond volume affected are less suitable estimates of expected default risk. One reason is that
issuer default volumes vary considerably over time. On average, a leveraged corporate issuer defaults on approximately $300 million
of bonds. However, that total has been as high as $30 billion (WorldCom). Issuer-based default rates receive particular emphasis in the
rating process because the expected likelihood of default of a debt issuer holding a given rating is likely to be the same regardless of
differences in the nominal sizes of the exposures.

22 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 47 shows the cumulative issuer-weighted historical default rates of cohorts formed between the years 1970 and 2023 (January
1 of each year). These data are a subset of the data used to calculate the issuer-weighted averages shown in Exhibits 38 through
40 (which, again, are based on cohorts formed at monthly time intervals). The default rates in Exhibit 47 may be useful for scenario
analysis. For example, if one believed that future default rates for a given pool of issuers will behave as they did in, say, 1997, then one
can use the January 1, 1997 cohort cumulative default rates as proxies for expected default rates.

23 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Appendix
Exhibit 21
Moody’s-rated 2023 corporate defaults*
Company Domicile Default month Broad default type Bond ($mil) Loan ($mil) in Jan 2023 cohort?

4L Holdings Corporation United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 75 yes

Accuride Corporation United States 2023.07 Distressed exchange 438 yes
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (P.T.) Indonesia 2023.07 Distressed exchange 168 yes
Air Methods Corporation United States 2023.10 Bankruptcy 500 1,375 yes
Akorn Operating Company LLC United States 2023.02 Bankruptcy 370 yes
Akumin Inc. United States 2023.10 Bankruptcy 850 55 yes
Altisource S.a.r.l. Luxembourg 2023.02 Distressed exchange 247 yes
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.02 Distressed exchange 109 yes
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 342 no
Americanas S.A. Brazil 2023.01 Payment default 3,000 yes
Amphora Intermediate II Ltd United Kingdom 2023.12 Payment default 380 yes
AmSurg, LLC United States 2023.05 Bankruptcy 2,777 yes
Anchor Glass Container Corporation United States 2023.07 Payment default 727 yes
API Holdings III Corp. United States 2023.02 Distressed exchange 90 yes
API Holdings III Corp. United States 2023.11 Distressed exchange 390 no
Aston Midco Limited Jersey 2023.09 Distressed exchange 92 yes
At Home Group Inc. United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 447 yes
Atento Luxco 1 Brazil 2023.09 Payment default 500 yes
Audacy, Inc. United States 2023.10 Distressed exchange 540 yes
Avaya Holdings Corp. United States 2023.02 Bankruptcy 221 0 yes
Avaya Inc. United States 2023.02 Bankruptcy 1,250 1,886 yes
Azul S.A. Brazil 2023.07 Distressed exchange 862 yes
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. United States 2023.04 Bankruptcy 1,030 100 yes
Bering III S.a r.l. Luxembourg 2023.12 Distressed exchange 393 yes
BIM Land Joint Stock Company Vietnam 2023.08 Distressed exchange 99 yes
Bioplan USA, Inc. United States 2023.03 Distressed exchange 386 yes
CareerBuilder, LLC United States 2023.04 Distressed exchange 176 yes
Carvana Co. United States 2023.08 Distressed exchange 5,520 yes
Casa Systems, Inc. United States 2023.06 Distressed exchange 219 yes
Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA France 2023.08 Payment default 2,196 yes
CatLuxe S.a.r.l. Spain 2023.04 Distressed exchange 381 yes
Central China Real Estate Limited China 2023.04 Distressed exchange 1,882 yes
Checkers Holdings, Inc. (OLD) United States 2023.05 Payment default 305 yes
China SCE Group Holdings Limited China 2023.10 Payment default 387 yes
CIBT Global, Inc. United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 590 yes
ClubCorp Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.10 Distressed exchange 315 yes
CNG Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.08 Distressed exchange 228 yes
Codere Luxembourg 2 S.a.r.l. Spain 2023.04 Payment default 532 yes
ColourOz MidCo Luxembourg 2023.03 Payment default 1,253 yes
Comet Bidco Limited United Kingdom 2023.06 Distressed exchange 894 yes
Cooper-Standard Automotive Inc. United States 2023.01 Distressed exchange 357 yes
Country Garden Holdings Company Limited China 2023.09 Distressed exchange 4,531 yes
Covis Parent SCA Luxembourg 2023.06 Distressed exchange 512 yes
Covis Parent SCA Luxembourg 2023.12 Payment default 495 no
CSTN Merger Sub, Inc. United States 2023.08 Distressed exchange 450 yes
Curo Group Holdings Corp. United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 682 yes
Cyxtera DC Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.06 Bankruptcy 953 yes

Source: Moody's Investors Service

24 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Company Domicile Default month Broad default type Bond ($mil) Loan ($mil) in Jan 2023 cohort?

Dawn Acquisitions LLC United States 2023.07 Distressed exchange 166 yes
Diamond Sports Group, LLC United States 2023.03 Bankruptcy 4,825 3,930 yes
Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (Old) United States 2023.06 Bankruptcy 1,511 1,024 no
Digicel Group Holdings Limited Jamaica 2023.05 Payment default 635 yes
Digicel International Finance Limited Saint Lucia 2023.03 Payment default 1,492 yes
Digital Media Solutions, LLC United States 2023.08 Distressed exchange 271 yes
Eagle Intermediate Global Holding B.V. United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 275 yes
Elevate Textiles, Inc. (Old) United States 2023.06 Distressed exchange 644 yes
Envision Healthcare Corporation United States 2023.05 Bankruptcy 939 4,161 yes
Equinox Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.02 Distressed exchange 76 yes
Equinox Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.11 Distressed exchange 66 no
Exela Intermediate LLC United States 2023.02 Distressed exchange 13 yes
Exela Intermediate LLC United States 2023.07 Distressed exchange 1,271 no
FDS Holdings BV Netherlands 2023.09 Distressed exchange 158 yes
FINThrive Software Intermediate Hldgs, Inc. United States 2023.09 Distressed exchange 46 yes
First Republic Bank United States 2023.05 Bankruptcy 800 yes
Flamingo Group International Limited United Kingdom 2023.12 Distressed exchange 269 yes
Foodco Bondco, S.A.U. Spain 2023.02 Payment default 358 yes
Forming Machining Industries Holdings, LLC United States 2023.03 Distressed exchange 50 yes
FR BR Holdings, L.L.C. United States 2023.12 Payment default 460 yes
Frigoglass SAIC Greece 2023.02 Payment default 334 yes
FXI Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 500 yes
Genesis Care Finance Pty Ltd Australia 2023.06 Bankruptcy 1,629 yes
Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. Brazil 2023.03 Distressed exchange 1,077 yes
Greenland Holding Group Company Limited China 2023.07 Payment default 1,350 yes
Haya Holdco 2 plc United Kingdom 2023.09 Distressed exchange 374 yes
HealthChannels Intermediate Holdco, LLC United States 2023.09 Distressed exchange 19 yes
Ideal Standard International S.A. Belgium 2023.09 Distressed exchange 344 yes
Instant Brands Holdings Inc. United States 2023.06 Bankruptcy 391 yes
JP Intermediate B, LLC United States 2023.07 Distressed exchange 366 yes
K&N Parent, Inc. (Old) United States 2023.02 Distressed exchange 285 yes
Keter Group B.V. Netherlands 2023.08 Payment default 112 yes
KNB Holdings Corporation United States 2023.02 Bankruptcy 441 yes
Lannett Company, Inc. United States 2023.05 Payment default 436 223 yes
Learfield Communications, LLC United States 2023.09 Distressed exchange 1,064 yes
LendingTree, Inc. United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 290 yes
LifeScan Global Corporation United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 275 yes
Ligado Networks LLC United States 2023.11 Payment default 4,180 yes
Light Energia S.A. Brazil 2023.04 Payment default 301 yes
Light S.A. Brazil 2023.04 Payment default 0 0 yes
Light Servicos De Eletricidade S.A. Brazil 2023.04 Payment default 1,732 203 yes
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Indonesia 2023.10 Distressed exchange 82 145 yes
Loyalty Ventures Inc. United States 2023.03 Bankruptcy 636 yes
Lucky Bucks, LLC United States 2023.03 Payment default 568 yes
Mallinckrodt International Finance S.A. United States 2023.07 Payment default 978 1,758 yes
Matrix Parent, Inc. United States 2023.12 Payment default 595 yes
Maverick Gaming LLC United States 2023.03 Distressed exchange 45 yes
Monitronics International, Inc. United States 2023.05 Bankruptcy 1,068 yes
Moran Foods LLC United States 2023.10 Distressed exchange 452 no
MVK Intermediate Holdings, LLC United States 2023.04 Distressed exchange 362 yes
MVK Intermediate Holdings, LLC United States 2023.10 Bankruptcy 496 no
National CineMedia, LLC United States 2023.03 Payment default 630 523 yes
NEP Europe Finco B.V. United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 531 yes

Source: Moody's Investors Service

25 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Company Domicile Default month Broad default type Bond ($mil) Loan ($mil) in Jan 2023 cohort?

NEP/NCP Holdco, Inc United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 1,708 yes
New Constellis Borrower LLC United States 2023.03 Distressed exchange 259 yes
Outerstuff LLC United States 2023.12 Payment default 14 no
Paper Industries Holding S.a r.l. Luxembourg 2023.12 Distressed exchange 124 yes
Paper Industries Intermediate Fin. S.a r.l. Luxembourg 2023.12 Distressed exchange 276 0 yes
Party City Holdings Inc. United States 2023.01 Bankruptcy 1,027 104 yes
Polaris Newco, LLC United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 2,500 yes
Praesidiad Group Limited United Kingdom 2023.11 Distressed exchange 441 yes
Pretium PKG Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.10 Distressed exchange 1,341 yes
QualTek LLC United States 2023.03 Distressed exchange 131 555 yes
Quorum Health Corporation United States 2023.09 Distressed exchange 617 yes
Rackspace Technology Global, Inc. United States 2023.07 Distressed exchange 222 yes
Resolute Investment Managers, Inc. United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 627 yes
Rising Tide Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.03 Distressed exchange 514 yes
Rising Tide Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.09 Distressed exchange 521 no
Rite Aid Corporation United States 2023.10 Bankruptcy 1,596 2,208 yes
Riverbed Technology LLC United States 2023.02 Payment default 900 yes
RobertShaw US Holding Corp. United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 620 yes
Rodan & Fields, LLC United States 2023.04 Distressed exchange 800 yes
Screenvision, LLC United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 22 no
Serta Simmons Bedding, LLC United States 2023.01 Bankruptcy 1,889 yes
SHO Holding I Corporation United States 2023.05 Distressed exchange 125 yes
Shutterfly, LLC United States 2023.06 Distressed exchange 1,050 1,383 yes
Sierra Enterprises LLC United States 2023.01 Payment default 385 yes
Signature Bank United States 2023.03 Bankruptcy 575 yes
Silicon Valley Bank United States 2023.03 Bankruptcy 0 yes
Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited China 2023.08 Payment default 3,320 yes
Skillz Inc. United States 2023.04 Distressed exchange 160 yes
SoLocal Group S.A. France 2023.07 Payment default 220 yes
SP PF Buyer LLC United States 2023.07 Distressed exchange 435 yes
Strategic Materials Holding Corp. United States 2023.08 Payment default 378 yes
SVB Financial Group United States 2023.03 Bankruptcy 3,300 yes
Tacora Resources Inc. Canada 2023.05 Distressed exchange 225 yes
Takko Fashion S.a r.l. Germany 2023.05 Distressed exchange 562 88 yes
Technicolor Creative Studios SA France 2023.06 Distressed exchange 706 yes
Tele Columbus AG Germany 2023.12 Payment default 709 yes
Telesat Canada Canada 2023.05 Distressed exchange 459 105 yes
Toro Private Holdings II, Limited United Kingdom 2023.03 Distressed exchange 2,100 yes
Toro Private Holdings II, Limited United Kingdom 2023.12 Distressed exchange 3,826 no
TortoiseEcofin Borrower LLC United States 2023.10 Distressed exchange 300 yes
Tullow Oil plc United Kingdom 2023.06 Distressed exchange 167 yes
U.S. Renal Care, Inc United States 2023.08 Distressed exchange 344 1,758 yes
U.S. TelePacific Corp. United States 2023.06 Distressed exchange 639 yes
URS Holdco, Inc. United States 2023.04 Distressed exchange 335 yes
Venator Materials LLC United Kingdom 2023.05 Bankruptcy 600 351 yes
Vericast Corp. United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 785 yes
Vue International Bidco plc United Kingdom 2023.01 Distressed exchange 285 260 yes
Wahoo Fitness Acquisition L.L.C. United States 2023.04 Payment default 247 yes
Wanda Commercial Properties (HK) Co. Limited China 2023.12 Distressed exchange 600 yes
Wellful Inc. United States 2023.12 Distressed exchange 125 yes
Werner FinCo LP United States 2023.06 Distressed exchange 251 yes
Wesco Aircraft Holdings, Inc. United States 2023.06 Bankruptcy 3,821 yes
Western Global Airlines, Inc. United States 2023.08 Bankruptcy 400 48 yes

Source: Moody's Investors Service

26 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Company Domicile Default month Broad default type Bond ($mil) Loan ($mil) in Jan 2023 cohort?

Wheel Pros, Inc. United States 2023.09 Distressed exchange 1,154 yes
Wittur Holding GmbH Germany 2023.03 Payment default 262 yes
Yak Access, LLC United States 2023.03 Distressed exchange 876 yes
Yellow Corporation United States 2023.08 Bankruptcy 2 1,245 yes
Zensun Enterprises Limited China 2023.09 Distressed exchange 273 yes
Zensun Group Limited China 2023.09 Distressed exchange 0 yes

* This list includes companies that initially defaulted in 2023 and they must have rated bonds, loans and/or deposits within one year before default. Only issuers included in the January 1
cohort are included in the annual default rates in this report. In addition to the 159 companies listed above, nine issuers that initially defaulted in prior years experienced follow-on defaults
in 2023 on $4,824 million of bonds and $406 million of loans. We include the amount associated with these follow-on defaults in the 2023 default volume.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

27 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 22
Annual Moody's-rated global corporate issuer default counts, 1920-2023

Year IG SG All Ratings Year IG SG All Ratings Year IG SG All Ratings

1920 8 25 33 1955 0 1 1 1990 1 88 89

1921 7 25 32 1956 0 0 0 1991 1 68 69
1922 10 23 33 1957 0 1 1 1992 0 33 33
1923 5 22 27 1958 0 0 0 1993 0 23 23
1924 3 37 40 1959 0 0 0 1994 0 19 19
1925 7 34 41 1960 0 2 2 1995 0 29 29
1926 4 18 22 1961 0 3 3 1996 0 18 18
1927 1 15 16 1962 0 4 4 1997 0 25 25
1928 0 8 8 1963 0 3 3 1998 1 50 51
1929 3 12 15 1964 0 0 0 1999 1 106 107
1930 2 21 23 1965 0 0 0 2000 4 125 129
1931 6 78 84 1966 0 1 1 2001 4 179 183
1932 10 108 118 1967 0 0 0 2002 12 136 148
1933 9 189 198 1968 0 1 1 2003 0 91 91
1934 5 60 65 1969 0 0 0 2004 0 39 39
1935 9 51 60 1970 2 25 27 2005 2 31 33
1936 3 19 22 1971 0 3 3 2006 0 31 31
1937 4 18 22 1972 0 5 5 2007 0 20 20
1938 9 17 26 1973 2 3 5 2008 21 119 140
1939 2 13 15 1974 0 3 3 2009 14 258 272
1940 2 22 24 1975 0 4 4 2010 3 62 65
1941 0 10 10 1976 0 2 2 2011 6 44 50
1942 0 4 4 1977 1 3 4 2012 1 68 69
1943 0 3 3 1978 0 4 4 2013 3 68 71
1944 0 3 3 1979 0 1 1 2014 2 56 58
1945 0 2 2 1980 0 4 4 2015 0 109 109
1946 0 0 0 1981 0 2 2 2016 0 140 140
1947 0 2 2 1982 2 11 13 2017 0 106 106
1948 0 0 0 1983 0 14 14 2018 0 74 74
1949 0 5 5 1984 2 11 13 2019 2 96 98
1950 0 0 0 1985 0 16 16 2020 2 205 207
1951 0 1 1 1986 3 33 36 2021 0 51 51
1952 0 0 0 1987 0 31 31 2022 17 135 152
1953 0 0 0 1988 0 32 32 2023 4 143 147
1954 0 1 1 1989 4 50 54
* Only includes companies in January 1 cohort.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

28 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 23
Annual rated global corporate bond and loan default volumes, 1970-2023 (in $ million)
Investment-grade Speculative-grade All Ratings
Year Bond Loan Total Bond Loan Total Bond Loan Total
1970 154 0 154 756 0 756 910 0 910
1971 0 0 0 132 0 132 132 0 132
1972 0 0 0 215 0 215 215 0 215
1973 17 0 17 94 0 94 112 0 112
1974 0 0 0 69 0 69 69 0 69
1975 0 0 0 176 0 176 176 0 176
1976 0 0 0 34 0 34 34 0 34
1977 68 0 68 179 0 179 247 0 247
1978 0 0 0 112 0 112 112 0 112
1979 0 0 0 18 0 18 18 0 18
1980 0 0 0 302 0 302 302 0 302
1981 0 0 0 47 0 47 47 0 47
1982 243 0 243 515 0 515 758 0 758
1983 0 0 0 1,187 0 1,187 1,187 0 1,187
1984 215 0 215 386 0 386 601 0 601
1985 0 0 0 1,354 0 1,354 1,354 0 1,354
1986 138 0 138 4,004 0 4,004 4,142 0 4,142
1987 0 0 0 8,941 277 9,217 8,941 277 9,217
1988 0 0 0 5,642 361 6,003 5,642 361 6,003
1989 1,506 0 1,506 9,657 0 9,657 11,162 0 11,162
1990 0 0 0 20,429 1,831 22,260 20,429 1,831 22,260
1991 1,348 0 1,348 15,546 678 16,224 16,894 678 17,572
1992 0 0 0 6,667 956 7,623 6,667 956 7,623
1993 0 0 0 2,617 487 3,103 2,617 487 3,103
1994 0 0 0 2,713 299 3,013 2,713 299 3,013
1995 0 0 0 5,401 372 5,773 5,401 372 5,773
1996 0 0 0 4,106 1,435 5,541 4,106 1,435 5,541
1997 0 0 0 5,024 948 5,972 5,024 948 5,972
1998 399 0 399 9,469 3,299 12,768 9,868 3,299 13,167
1999 461 1,225 1,686 26,217 14,054 40,270 26,678 15,279 41,956
2000 4,115 3,950 8,065 25,516 26,206 51,721 29,631 30,156 59,787
2001 21,195 5,363 26,558 78,505 34,103 112,609 99,701 39,466 139,167
2002 46,350 13,158 59,508 104,454 41,121 145,575 150,804 54,279 205,083
2003 0 870 870 37,626 10,308 47,935 37,626 11,178 48,804
2004 0 0 0 13,152 4,712 17,865 13,152 4,712 17,865
2005 2,155 2,825 4,980 26,923 8,745 35,668 29,078 11,570 40,648
2006 0 0 0 8,795 2,630 11,425 8,795 2,630 11,425
2007 0 0 0 6,614 1,983 8,597 6,614 1,983 8,597
2008 182,073 10,380 192,452 51,362 32,451 83,814 233,435 42,831 276,266
2009 35,704 21,931 57,634 149,189 122,495 271,683 184,892 144,425 329,318
2010 4,047 0 4,047 22,256 14,042 36,298 26,303 14,042 40,344
2011 6,561 1,411 7,972 22,696 4,906 27,602 29,257 6,317 35,574
2012 323 0 323 35,001 18,289 53,290 35,324 18,289 53,613
2013 2,408 0 2,408 28,949 13,805 42,754 31,358 13,805 45,162
2014 939 0 939 40,392 30,370 70,762 41,331 30,370 71,701
2015 0 0 0 75,483 19,794 95,277 75,483 19,794 95,277
2016 0 0 0 90,823 43,648 134,472 90,823 43,648 134,472
2017 0 0 0 57,688 27,397 85,085 57,688 27,397 85,085
2018 0 0 0 49,468 25,892 75,360 49,468 25,892 75,360
2019 17,573 3,855 21,428 55,414 33,437 88,851 72,988 37,292 110,279
2020 756 1,766 2,522 127,067 99,430 226,497 127,823 101,196 229,019
2021 0 0 0 41,054 11,918 52,971 41,054 11,918 52,971
2022 17,522 0 17,522 96,155 33,798 129,953 113,677 33,798 147,475
2023 4,675 0 4,675 67,135 66,230 133,366 71,810 66,230 138,041

* Only include companies in Jan. 1 cohort.

Source: Moody's Investors Service

29 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 24
Annual issuer default counts and volume by geographical region, 1986-2023
Default count Default Volume (in $mil)

Africa & Asia Europe Latin North Africa & Asia Europe Latin North

Year Middle East Pacific America America Middle East Pacific America America

1986 0 0 0 0 36 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4,142
1987 0 0 0 0 32 $0 $0 $0 $0 $9,297
1988 0 0 0 0 32 $0 $0 $0 $0 $6,003
1989 0 4 0 0 51 $0 $969 $0 $0 $10,253
1990 0 1 1 0 90 $0 $200 $516 $0 $22,097
1991 0 0 2 0 71 $0 $0 $1,228 $0 $16,753
1992 0 0 0 0 34 $0 $0 $0 $0 $7,673
1993 0 0 0 0 24 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,104
1994 0 0 1 0 18 $0 $0 $774 $0 $2,238
1995 0 0 0 1 30 $0 $0 $0 $100 $5,774
1996 0 0 0 1 19 $0 $0 $0 $207 $5,930
1997 0 2 0 2 21 $0 $614 $0 $310 $5,048
1998 0 4 5 0 44 $0 $1,444 $707 $0 $11,241
1999 0 8 9 8 88 $0 $4,458 $3,950 $2,018 $33,299
2000 0 4 4 4 118 $0 $4,453 $866 $455 $54,080
2001 0 11 15 7 150 $0 $10,088 $10,540 $2,034 $116,505
2002 2 2 25 17 102 $150 $1,842 $47,555 $10,370 $145,167
2003 0 3 7 12 70 $0 $625 $2,927 $4,933 $40,444
2004 1 0 5 0 37 $183 $0 $2,311 $366 $15,775
2005 0 0 1 1 32 $0 $0 $207 $100 $40,445
2006 0 0 7 2 24 $0 $0 $1,601 $167 $10,149
2007 0 0 4 0 16 $0 $0 $2,230 $0 $6,367
2008 0 3 52 3 93 $0 $625 $53,374 $705 $227,926
2009 1 16 31 11 225 $650 $6,989 $28,413 $3,031 $295,225
2010 0 3 10 4 54 $0 $6,913 $9,713 $487 $25,384
2011 0 0 16 1 36 $0 $0 $10,102 $358 $27,149
2012 1 1 13 5 51 $48 $1,805 $17,441 $3,077 $33,780
2013 0 2 26 10 36 $0 $546 $24,263 $4,880 $23,091
2014 1 5 16 5 32 $350 $4,000 $9,974 $4,539 $53,092
2015 1 9 30 10 69 $456 $4,114 $15,950 $4,314 $75,157
2016 2 2 21 12 110 $945 $1,806 $16,248 $26,135 $91,785
2017 1 7 30 3 67 $553 $2,336 $20,684 $19,478 $42,504
2018 0 5 13 5 57 $0 $4,161 $7,950 $8,559 $57,417
2019 3 5 13 3 81 $0 $2,549 $7,418 $7,800 $101,792
2020 3 17 40 13 145 $2,845 $13,053 $41,597 $9,413 $169,042
2021 0 15 10 6 24 $0 $30,869 $4,397 $4,103 $19,959
2022 1 24 89 4 39 $0 $55,953 $46,175 $1,000 $49,944
2023 0 12 31 9 107 $0 $19,551 $20,399 $9,802 $100,518

* Includes defaults outside of January 1 cohort.

Source: Moody's Investors Service

30 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 25
2023 defaulted corporate bond and loan recoveries*
Loan Bond
Company Broad default type 1st Lien 2nd Lien 1st Lien 2nd Lien Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub Sub Jr. Sub
4L Holdings Corporation distressed exchange 90.0%
Accuride Corporation distressed exchange 82.6%
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (P.T.) distressed exchange 58.0%
Air Methods Corporation bankruptcy 14.8% 1.3%
Akorn Operating Company LLC bankruptcy 25.3%
Akumin Inc. bankruptcy 78.3%
Altisource S.a.r.l. distressed exchange 81.4%
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (1) distressed exchange 59.0%
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (2) distressed exchange 85.3% 63.5%
Americanas S.A. payment default 16.3%
Amphora Intermediate II Ltd payment default 41.0%
AmSurg, LLC bankruptcy 95.0% 55.5%
Anchor Glass Container Corporation payment default 81.0% 41.1%
Aston Midco Limited distressed exchange 81.7%
At Home Group Inc. distressed exchange 96.0%
Atento Luxco 1 payment default 0.0%
Audacy, Inc. distressed exchange 1.0%
Avaya Holdings Corp. bankruptcy 7.3%
Avaya Inc. bankruptcy 24.5% 25.5%
Azul S.A. distressed exchange 82.4%
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. bankruptcy 2.6%
Bering III S.a r.l. distressed exchange 82.4%
BIM Land Joint Stock Company distressed exchange 49.5%
Bioplan USA, Inc. distressed exchange 65.4% 42.1%
CareerBuilder, LLC distressed exchange 67.0%
Carvana Co. distressed exchange 71.5%
Casa Systems, Inc. distressed exchange 90.9%
Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA payment default 2.0% 0.8%
CATALINA MARKETING CORPORATION payment default 75.8%
CatLuxe S.a.r.l. distressed exchange 47.5%
Central China Real Estate Limited distressed exchange 14.8%
Checkers Holdings, Inc. payment default 42.1%
CIBT Global, Inc. distressed exchange 72.3% 54.3%
ClubCorp Holdings, Inc. distressed exchange 84.8%
CNG Holdings, Inc. distressed exchange 85.8%
Codere Luxembourg 2 S.a.r.l. payment default 85.3%
ColourOz MidCo payment default 67.3% 30.0%
Comet Bidco Limited distressed exchange 91.4%
Cooper-Standard Automotive Inc. distressed exchange 45.4%
Country Garden Holdings Company Limited distressed exchange 7.9%
Covis Midco 2 S.a r.l. (1) distressed exchange 57.8% 7.5%
Covis Midco 2 S.a r.l. (2) payment default 38.8%
CSTN Merger Sub, Inc. distressed exchange 87.1%
Curo Group Holdings Corp. distressed exchange 37.6%
Cyxtera DC Holdings, Inc. bankruptcy 50.9%
David's Bridal, Inc. bankruptcy 35.0%
Dawn Acquisitions LLC distressed exchange 76.9%

31 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Loan Bond
Company Broad default type 1st Lien 2nd Lien 1st Lien 2nd Lien Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub Sub Jr. Sub

Diamond Sports Group, LLC bankruptcy 93.4% 5.8% 5.5% 1.5%

Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (Old) bankruptcy 17.4% 18.0% 0.8% 2.0%
Digicel Group Holdings Limited payment default 43.5% 5.0%
Digicel International Finance Limited payment default 46.0% 18.0%
Digital Media Solutions, LLC distressed exchange 74.7%
DTEK ENERGY B.V. (1) distressed exchange 30.5%
DTEK ENERGY B.V. (2) distressed exchange 56.4%
Eagle Intermediate Global Holding B.V. distressed exchange 80.0%
Elevate Textiles, Inc. distressed exchange 47.5% 6.9%
Envision Healthcare Corporation bankruptcy 5.1% 1.4%
Equinox Holdings, Inc. distressed exchange 77.8%
Exela Intermediate LLC distressed exchange 13.8%
FDS Holdings BV distressed exchange 67.5%
FINThrive Software Intermediate Hldgs, Inc. distressed exchange 64.1%
First Republic Bank bankruptcy 1.0%
Foodco Bondco, S.A.U. payment default 42.9%
Forming Machining Industries Holdings, LLC distressed exchange 72.5%
Frigoglass SAIC payment default 27.3%
FXI Holdings, Inc. distressed exchange 90.8%
Genesis Care Finance Pty Ltd bankruptcy 12.9%
Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. distressed exchange 46.3%
Greenland Holding Group Company Limited payment default 15.9%
Haya Holdco 2 plc distressed exchange 38.2%
HealthChannels Intermediate Holdco, LLC distressed exchange 74.7%
Ideal Standard International S.A. distressed exchange 61.8%
Instant Brands Holdings Inc. bankruptcy 22.1%
JP Intermediate B, LLC distressed exchange 46.9%
K&N Parent, Inc. distressed exchange 42.3%
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd payment default 14.0%
Keter Group B.V. payment default 83.0%
Lannett Company, Inc. payment default 7.3% 1.0%
Learfield Communications, LLC distressed exchange 77.0% 62.8%
LendingTree, Inc. distressed exchange 78.8%
LifeScan Global Corporation distressed exchange 62.5%
Ligado Networks LLC payment default 18.5%
Light Servicos De Eletricidade S.A. payment default 38.2%
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust distressed exchange 72.2%
Logan Group Company Limited payment default 29.8%
Loyalty Ventures Inc. bankruptcy 10.9%
Lucky Bucks, LLC payment default 32.1%
Mallinckrodt International Finance S.A. payment default 75.7% 86.1% 16.3%
Matrix Parent, Inc. payment default 67.9% 35.2%
Maverick Gaming LLC distressed exchange 68.5%
MHP SE distressed exchange 85.0%
Missouri TopCo Limited distressed exchange 52.0%
MLN US Holdco LLC distressed exchange 28.0%
Monitronics International, Inc. bankruptcy 69.2%

32 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Loan Bond
Company Broad default type 1st Lien 2nd Lien 1st Lien 2nd Lien Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub Sub Jr. Sub

Moran Foods LLC distressed exchange 87.5% 72.5%

MVK Intermediate Holdings, LLC (1) distressed exchange 68.4%
MVK Intermediate Holdings, LLC (2) bankruptcy 24.7%
National CineMedia, LLC payment default 33.6% 34.5% 2.4%
NEP Europe Finco B.V. distressed exchange 86.4%
NEP/NCP Holdco, Inc distressed exchange 95.6%
New Constellis Borrower LLC distressed exchange 86.1% 58.2%
Outerstuff LLC payment default 87.8%
Paper Industries Intermediate Fin. S.a r.l. distressed exchange 77.1%
Party City Holdings Inc. bankruptcy 16.2% 0.5%
Polaris Newco, LLC distressed exchange 94.8%
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Limited distressed exchange 11.5%
Praesidiad Group Limited distressed exchange 53.0%
Pretium PKG Holdings, Inc. distressed exchange 75.1% 45.4%
QualTek LLC distressed exchange 78.6%
Quorum Health Corporation distressed exchange 68.5%
Rackspace Technology Global, Inc. distressed exchange 28.0%
Resolute Investment Managers, Inc. distressed exchange 64.8% 20.0%
Rising Tide Holdings, Inc. (1) distressed exchange 59.0% 27.5%
Rising Tide Holdings, Inc. (2) distressed exchange 7.0% 3.0%
Rite Aid Corporation bankruptcy 75.1% 5.0%
Riverbed Technology LLC payment default 31.7%
Robertshaw US Holding Corp (NEW) distressed exchange 54.2% 22.3%
Rodan & Fields, LLC distressed exchange 46.5%
Serta Simmons Bedding, LLC bankruptcy 55.8%
Shimao Group Holdings Limited payment default 15.4%
SHO Holding I Corporation distressed exchange 71.0%
Shutterfly, LLC distressed exchange 60.9% 46.8%
Sierra Enterprises LLC payment default 72.0%
Signature Bank bankruptcy 2.8%
Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited payment default 18.3%
Skillz Inc. distressed exchange 69.5%
Solocal Group S.A. payment default 37.0%
SP PF Buyer LLC distressed exchange 78.0%
Strategic Materials Holding Corp. payment default 63.6% 3.3%
SVB Financial Group bankruptcy 57.4%
Tacora Resources Inc. distressed exchange 76.3%
Takko Fashion S.a r.l. distressed exchange 72.2%
Tele Columbus AG payment default 65.3%
Telesat Canada distressed exchange 73.8% 60.6% 38.2%
Toro Private Holdings II, Limited (1) distressed exchange 57.3%
Toro Private Holdings II, Limited (2) distressed exchange 70.6%
TortoiseEcofin Borrower LLC distressed exchange 42.8%
Tullow Oil plc distressed exchange 60.3%
U.S. Renal Care, Inc distressed exchange 50.8% 39.3%
U.S. Telepacific Corp. distressed exchange 40.0%
URS Holdco, Inc. distressed exchange 33.3%

33 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Loan Bond

Company Broad default type 1st Lien 2nd Lien 1st Lien 2nd Lien Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub Sub Jr. Sub

Venator Materials LLC bankruptcy 55.4% 12.0%

Vericast Corp. distressed exchange 93.5%
Vue International Bidco plc distressed exchange 55.0%
Wahoo Fitness Acquisition L.L.C. payment default 42.4%
Wanda Commercial Properties (HK) Co. Limited distressed exchange 78.5%

Werner FinCo LP distressed exchange 88.1%

Wesco Aircraft Holdings, Inc. bankruptcy 90.0% 7.3%
Western Global Airlines, Inc. bankruptcy 0.3%
WeWork Cos US LLC bankruptcy 0.5%
Wheel Pros, Inc. distressed exchange 66.9%
Wittur Holding GmbH payment default 68.0%
Yak Access, LLC distressed exchange 45.4% 6.6%
YRC Worldwide Inc. bankruptcy 91.5%
Zensun Enterprises Limited distressed exchange 37.6%

*Based on trading prices

Source: Moody's Investors Service

34 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 26
Annual defaulted corporate bond and loan recoveries*
Loan Bond

Year 1st Lien 1st Lien Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub. Sub. Jr. Sub. All Bonds

1983 40.0% 52.7% 43.5% 41.1% 44.5%

1984 49.4% 67.9% 44.3% 45.5%
1985 83.6% 60.2% 29.6% 39.7% 48.5% 43.6%
1986 59.2% 49.5% 46.8% 41.4% 47.2%
1987 71.0% 63.8% 46.5% 46.9% 51.3%
1988 55.4% 45.2% 31.4% 33.8% 36.5% 38.5%
1989 46.5% 43.6% 35.7% 26.8% 16.9% 32.5%
1990 72.0% 33.8% 38.2% 25.5% 19.5% 10.7% 25.8%
1991 67.9% 50.2% 36.6% 41.8% 24.4% 7.8% 35.5%
1992 60.6% 62.1% 49.2% 49.4% 38.0% 13.5% 45.9%
1993 53.4% 37.1% 51.9% 44.1% 43.1%
1994 67.6% 69.3% 53.7% 29.6% 38.0% 40.0% 45.6%
1995 75.4% 62.0% 47.6% 34.3% 41.5% 43.3%
1996 85.5% 47.6% 62.8% 43.8% 22.6% 41.5%
1997 81.3% 72.0% 56.1% 44.7% 33.1% 30.6% 47.6%
1998 59.9% 46.8% 39.5% 45.0% 18.2% 62.0% 38.3%
1999 73.6% 39.1% 38.0% 26.9% 35.6% 34.3%
2000 68.8% 40.1% 24.2% 20.8% 31.9% 15.5% 25.4%
2001 64.9% 33.6% 21.2% 19.8% 15.9% 47.0% 21.7%
2002 58.4% 50.8% 29.6% 21.4% 23.4% 29.9%
2003 73.4% 63.0% 41.9% 37.8% 12.3% 40.8%
2004 87.7% 73.3% 52.1% 42.3% 94.0% 58.5%
2005 83.8% 69.2% 54.9% 32.8% 51.3% 56.5%
2006 83.6% 74.6% 55.0% 41.4% 56.1% 55.0%
2007 68.6% 86.1% 53.7% 56.2% 57.4%
2008 61.7% 52.5% 33.5% 23.3% 29.5% 34.1%
2009 53.6% 37.3% 36.7% 23.1% 45.3% 8.5% 33.9%
2010 70.9% 57.6% 48.2% 37.5% 33.7% 51.1%
2011 69.9% 70.5% 43.6% 42.8% 31.9% 46.7%
2012 66.4% 57.6% 43.3% 29.9% 40.3% 44.5%
2013 76.2% 68.8% 45.1% 20.7% 26.4% 46.2%
2014 78.4% 73.6% 47.0% 39.1% 38.8% 48.5%
2015 63.7% 54.8% 37.6% 36.6% 58.5% 14.0% 41.2%
2016 66.2% 49.6% 32.2% 36.7% 24.5% 0.6% 37.2%
2017 69.6% 65.4% 54.3% 38.0% 42.6% 17.5% 56.1%
2018 69.4% 58.8% 47.2% 45.6% 51.4%
2019 57.9% 60.3% 32.3% 64.7% 40.0% 41.2%
2020 59.8% 52.5% 34.6% 14.1% 38.4%
2021 66.4% 65.9% 48.7% 17.0% 52.1%
2022 69.5% 58.2% 30.9% 18.2% 35.8%
2023 59.6% 53.5% 33.4% 63.5% 6.7% 0.8% 40.8%

* Measured by trading prices.

Source: Moody's Investors Service

35 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 27
Average defaulted corporate bond and loan recoveries by industry, 1983-2023**
Recoveries Observation Counts
Loan Bond Loan Bond
Industry groups 1st Lien 1st Lien Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub. Sub. 1st Lien 1st Lien Sr. Unsec. Sr. Sub. Sub.
Aerospace & Defense 68.3% 84.8% 45.5% 23.3% 40.8% 7 2 11 9 7
Automotive 68.5% 57.9% 47.6% 23.9% 49.5% 41 4 38 28 5
Banking 7.0% 41.5% 20.0% 30.3% 0 1 59 7 69
Beverage, Food, & Tobacco 75.5% 55.5% 42.0% 27.5% 34.0% 24 16 33 19 10
Capital Equipment 62.7% 60.7% 33.2% 34.2% 39.6% 32 11 29 30 15
Chemicals, Plastics, & Rubber 66.7% 51.0% 28.6% 23.6% 63.6% 14 20 27 12 2
Construction & Building 58.1% 62.6% 36.0% 25.3% 28.5% 29 9 108 24 20
Consumer goods: Durable 61.0% 53.4% 34.0% 28.9% 29.4% 15 7 12 15 10
Consumer goods: Non-durable 62.0% 41.0% 32.7% 33.2% 38.6% 43 7 30 37 11
Containers, Packaging, & Glass 73.0% 63.2% 52.1% 36.5% 42.0% 8 9 12 11 3
Energy: Electricity 82.3% 82.0% 58.8% 78.9% 22.3% 7 14 28 2 4
Energy: Oil & Gas 68.1% 56.3% 36.9% 38.0% 39.1% 66 45 177 28 36
Environmental Industries 61.3% 13.0% 29.7% 27.1% 13.6% 9 1 7 6 3
Finance* 68.7% 51.6% 42.9% 36.8% 28.9% 13 7 41 11 15
Forest Products & Paper 74.8% 52.2% 37.3% 20.5% 1.5% 10 16 36 9 3
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 62.8% 72.8% 37.1% 33.0% 35.3% 44 9 33 30 30
High Tech Industries 59.4% 52.7% 35.8% 26.1% 23.2% 27 16 28 22 38
Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure 69.4% 56.3% 37.5% 32.3% 26.0% 43 46 45 37 17
Insurance 86.2% 96.3% 37.9% 46.0% 43.2% 2 1 10 4 6
Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing 57.7% 49.1% 28.4% 22.0% 50.9% 37 21 20 23 4
Media: Broadcasting & Subscription 66.1% 41.9% 41.1% 39.1% 29.1% 21 14 51 29 13
Media: Diversified & Production 65.5% 20.8% 36.4% 32.9% 45.1% 6 3 8 3 3
Metals & Mining 58.7% 41.4% 34.9% 32.1% 45.8% 18 39 76 10 11
REIT 67.8% 44.0% 42.8% 13.0% 27.0% 6 2 19 3 7
Retail 60.3% 59.4% 35.4% 34.4% 22.2% 72 39 89 46 27
Services: Business 69.2% 63.4% 47.3% 28.9% 41.5% 56 27 29 11 6
Services: Consumer 65.4% 35.2% 57.8% 49.1% 15 2 8 5 0
Sovereign & Public Finance 31.4% 50.8% 0 3 7 0 0
Telecommunications 59.4% 53.6% 25.6% 31.0% 29.5% 44 23 146 20 19
Transportation: Cargo 67.4% 51.6% 41.9% 35.4% 32.5% 21 19 36 12 5
Transportation: Consumer 84.0% 53.2% 35.7% 43.6% 28.6% 4 10 33 3 14
Utilities: Electric 100.8% 60.6% 53.5% 27.1% 1 11 22 0 2
Utilities: Oil & Gas 85.0% 72.6% 57.5% 0 1 3 0 1
Utilities: Water 82.1% 0 0 2 0 0
Wholesale 68.4% 53.8% 37.9% 14.1% 37.0% 17 4 15 9 5

* Non-bank and non-insurance financial companies

** Measured by trading prices.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

36 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 28
Average senior unsecured bond recovery rates by year before default, 1983-2023
Rating\Year 1 2 3 4 5

Aaa** 3.3% 3.3% 61.9% 69.6%

Aa 37.2% 39.0% 38.1% 44.0% 43.2%
A 37.7% 46.2% 47.4% 46.8% 46.2%
Baa 38.4% 40.3% 40.9% 41.2% 41.3%
Ba 39.9% 39.9% 39.6% 39.5% 39.3%
B 36.4% 36.0% 36.7% 37.3% 37.9%
Caa-C 38.2% 38.5% 38.3% 38.3% 38.2%
IG 38.2% 41.5% 42.6% 43.0% 43.0%
SG 37.8% 37.7% 37.8% 38.0% 38.2%
All 37.8% 37.9% 38.1% 38.4% 38.6%

* Issuer-weighted, based on post default trading prices.

** The Aaa recovery rates are based on five observations, three of which are Icelandic banks that have an average recovery rate of 3.33%.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

37 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 29
Annual credit loss rates by letter rating, 1983-2023
Year Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C IG SG All

1983 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.55% 1.05% 21.30% 0.00% 2.02% 0.45%
1984 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.26% 2.61% 9.20% 0.09% 1.56% 0.43%
1985 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 2.83% 2.49% 0.00% 1.48% 0.37%
1986 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.43% 1.20% 5.20% 8.17% 0.11% 3.08% 0.91%
1987 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.10% 1.94% 3.56% 0.00% 1.55% 0.51%
1988 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.74% 3.07% 6.85% 0.00% 2.04% 0.73%
1989 0.00% 0.28% 0.00% 0.29% 1.68% 4.25% 11.51% 0.14% 3.33% 1.25%
1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 2.18% 8.46% 27.86% 0.04% 6.45% 2.17%
1991 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 2.43% 8.32% 10.12% 0.04% 5.76% 1.76%
1992 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 3.88% 7.97% 0.00% 2.51% 0.68%
1993 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.39% 2.73% 8.77% 0.00% 2.14% 0.56%
1994 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.94% 2.46% 0.00% 1.08% 0.30%
1995 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 2.00% 6.05% 0.00% 1.61% 0.47%
1996 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 3.69% 0.00% 0.62% 0.19%
1997 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.88% 3.99% 0.00% 0.83% 0.27%
1998 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.46% 2.23% 5.36% 0.02% 1.80% 0.67%
1999 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.86% 3.12% 9.32% 0.02% 3.30% 1.30%
2000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 1.09% 4.27% 13.45% 0.10% 4.66% 1.87%
2001 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.14% 0.92% 6.88% 22.28% 0.10% 7.34% 2.78%
2002 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 0.59% 1.25% 3.22% 18.59% 0.26% 5.49% 2.06%
2003 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.52% 1.49% 11.89% 0.00% 3.09% 1.07%
2004 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.33% 5.22% 0.00% 1.10% 0.38%
2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.32% 3.28% 0.03% 0.78% 0.29%
2006 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.49% 2.47% 0.00% 0.75% 0.26%
2007 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 2.21% 0.00% 0.46% 0.17%
2008 0.00% 0.33% 0.27% 0.67% 1.55% 2.68% 7.11% 0.41% 3.64% 1.67%
2009 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.59% 1.12% 4.30% 16.70% 0.27% 7.67% 3.15%
2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.04% 0.00% 0.20% 4.47% 0.05% 1.59% 0.64%
2011 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 0.20% 0.09% 0.19% 3.51% 0.11% 1.18% 0.53%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.08% 0.31% 4.54% 0.02% 1.60% 0.71%
2013 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.07% 0.33% 0.55% 3.46% 0.05% 1.48% 0.69%
2014 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.03% 0.08% 0.27% 2.52% 0.03% 1.08% 0.52%
2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 1.51% 4.13% 0.00% 2.31% 1.09%
2016 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 1.14% 6.17% 0.00% 3.14% 1.49%
2017 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.24% 0.21% 3.45% 0.00% 1.64% 0.78%
2018 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.36% 2.73% 0.00% 1.30% 0.62%
2019 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.00% 0.81% 4.41% 0.04% 2.16% 1.04%
2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.09% 2.60% 8.39% 0.04% 4.52% 2.11%
2021 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 1.52% 0.00% 0.90% 0.41%
2022 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.63% 2.88% 3.55% 2.65% 0.33% 2.96% 1.57%
2023 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.07% 0.49% 0.48% 6.10% 0.08% 3.22% 1.52%

* Based on issuer-weighted annual default rates and senior unsecured bond recoveries measured on an issuer-weighted basis.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

38 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 30
2023 one-year letter rating migration rates
From\To Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca_C WR Def

Aaa 98.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 0.00% 96.55% 1.25% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.19% 0.00%

A 0.00% 0.98% 93.23% 2.26% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.39% 0.15%

Baa 0.00% 0.00% 2.47% 91.40% 1.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.30% 0.11%

Ba 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.72% 85.12% 3.86% 1.57% 0.14% 4.86% 0.72%

B 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.08% 81.41% 6.93% 0.12% 5.77% 0.69%

Caa 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 3.14% 78.19% 3.85% 9.76% 4.92%

Ca_C 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.28% 32.79% 12.30% 51.64%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Exhibit 31
Average one-year letter rating migration rates, 1920-2023
From\To Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca_C WR Def

Aaa 87.17% 7.47% 0.77% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.38% 0.00%

Aa 0.98% 84.65% 7.51% 0.68% 0.15% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 5.92% 0.06%

A 0.06% 2.57% 86.01% 5.14% 0.56% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01% 5.46% 0.08%

Baa 0.03% 0.20% 3.84% 84.30% 4.02% 0.63% 0.11% 0.02% 6.63% 0.23%

Ba 0.01% 0.06% 0.44% 5.97% 74.73% 6.61% 0.67% 0.08% 10.32% 1.10%

B 0.00% 0.04% 0.14% 0.55% 5.44% 72.34% 6.32% 0.44% 11.74% 2.99%

Caa 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.08% 0.35% 5.86% 70.34% 2.94% 13.71% 6.69%

Ca_C 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.07% 0.38% 2.35% 9.83% 44.85% 16.83% 25.60%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Exhibit 32
Average one-year letter rating migration rates, 1970-2023
From\To Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca_C WR Def

Aaa 88.08% 7.51% 0.56% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.76% 0.00%

Aa 0.74% 85.80% 8.14% 0.40% 0.06% 0.03% 0.02% 0.00% 4.80% 0.02%

A 0.04% 2.34% 87.69% 4.86% 0.41% 0.09% 0.03% 0.00% 4.49% 0.05%

Baa 0.03% 0.12% 3.65% 86.94% 3.25% 0.57% 0.12% 0.02% 5.14% 0.16%

Ba 0.00% 0.03% 0.36% 5.83% 77.03% 6.73% 0.70% 0.10% 8.36% 0.86%

B 0.01% 0.02% 0.11% 0.39% 4.75% 73.97% 6.71% 0.48% 10.60% 2.96%

Caa 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.06% 0.23% 5.64% 70.74% 2.88% 13.95% 6.47%

Ca_C 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.06% 0.32% 1.88% 10.77% 38.63% 18.81% 29.51%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

39 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 33
Average five-year letter rating migration rates, 1970-2023
From\To Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca_C WR Def

Aaa 54.84% 22.06% 4.66% 0.58% 0.29% 0.03% 0.04% 0.00% 17.44% 0.07%

Aa 1.96% 47.16% 23.56% 3.67% 0.71% 0.23% 0.10% 0.03% 22.35% 0.24%

A 0.15% 7.24% 53.62% 13.94% 2.14% 0.64% 0.12% 0.01% 21.54% 0.59%

Baa 0.12% 0.82% 11.22% 52.35% 7.43% 2.29% 0.47% 0.08% 24.02% 1.21%

Ba 0.03% 0.16% 2.15% 14.42% 28.87% 11.24% 1.99% 0.12% 34.99% 6.04%

B 0.02% 0.06% 0.37% 2.16% 7.71% 23.62% 6.68% 0.58% 43.85% 14.96%

Caa 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.40% 1.31% 7.19% 16.45% 1.30% 51.45% 21.82%

Ca_C 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.80% 1.35% 3.67% 3.23% 2.42% 44.34% 44.17%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

40 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 34
2023 one-year alphanumeric rating migration rates
From\To Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa2 Caa3 Ca_C WR Def

Aaa 98.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa1 0.00% 88.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.78% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.33% 0.00%

Aa2 0.00% 1.74% 94.78% 0.87% 0.87% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.74% 0.00%

Aa3 0.00% 0.00% 1.20% 96.41% 1.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.20% 0.00%

A1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.13% 90.12% 3.13% 0.48% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.89% 0.00%

A2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.44% 86.88% 2.48% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.21% 0.00%

A3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.03% 83.79% 5.66% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.13% 0.39%

Baa1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.00% 6.47% 85.15% 4.12% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.94% 0.15%

Baa2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 6.76% 82.94% 3.82% 0.74% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.85% 0.15%

Baa3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.60% 82.00% 2.80% 1.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.40% 0.00%

Ba1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97% 11.11% 77.78% 3.86% 1.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 0.48% 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 2.90% 0.00%

Ba2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.98% 79.06% 5.13% 1.71% 0.00% 0.85% 0.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.84% 0.00%

Ba3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.39% 4.65% 7.36% 69.77% 3.10% 2.71% 1.94% 2.33% 0.78% 0.39% 0.00% 4.65% 1.94%

B1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.00% 9.45% 66.91% 5.82% 1.82% 1.45% 1.09% 0.00% 0.36% 8.36% 0.73%

B2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.78% 1.17% 12.11% 65.63% 10.55% 1.95% 1.17% 0.78% 0.00% 5.47% 0.39%

B3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% 0.00% 3.58% 9.85% 68.36% 8.96% 2.99% 0.90% 0.00% 3.88% 0.90%

Caa1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 0.47% 0.71% 7.31% 60.14% 13.21% 4.25% 0.47% 10.14% 2.83%

Caa2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.79% 0.00% 4.61% 70.26% 7.63% 2.89% 9.74% 3.95%

Caa3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.46% 0.00% 0.00% 7.76% 56.16% 14.16% 9.13% 12.33%

Ca_C 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.82% 2.46% 32.79% 12.30% 51.64%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Exhibit 35
Average one-year alphanumeric rating migration rates, 1983-2023
From\To Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa2 Caa3 Ca_C WR Def

Aaa 87.36% 5.11% 2.16% 0.53% 0.28% 0.14% 0.02% 0.05% 0.00% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.30% 0.00%

Aa1 1.60% 77.10% 7.79% 5.52% 1.35% 1.00% 0.20% 0.14% 0.07% 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.08% 0.00%

Aa2 0.94% 4.11% 75.12% 9.59% 3.19% 1.50% 0.40% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.01% 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 4.75% 0.00%

Aa3 0.14% 0.98% 4.02% 76.30% 8.53% 3.28% 0.78% 0.23% 0.23% 0.11% 0.02% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.26% 0.04%

A1 0.04% 0.08% 0.97% 4.94% 77.66% 7.18% 2.43% 0.55% 0.38% 0.17% 0.15% 0.11% 0.04% 0.05% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 5.14% 0.06%

A2 0.05% 0.03% 0.19% 0.93% 5.72% 77.54% 6.98% 2.33% 0.89% 0.33% 0.15% 0.12% 0.14% 0.05% 0.03% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44% 0.04%

A3 0.04% 0.04% 0.08% 0.26% 1.32% 6.10% 76.86% 6.55% 2.33% 0.78% 0.30% 0.13% 0.11% 0.09% 0.04% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 4.86% 0.06%

Baa1 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.09% 0.19% 1.31% 6.17% 77.64% 6.27% 1.97% 0.49% 0.25% 0.18% 0.21% 0.05% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 4.88% 0.09%

Baa2 0.03% 0.03% 0.01% 0.06% 0.14% 0.51% 1.64% 6.54% 77.21% 5.85% 1.15% 0.53% 0.38% 0.27% 0.16% 0.07% 0.08% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 5.13% 0.16%

Baa3 0.02% 0.01% 0.02% 0.03% 0.06% 0.14% 0.39% 1.62% 8.67% 74.16% 4.45% 1.86% 0.85% 0.66% 0.22% 0.22% 0.12% 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 6.09% 0.26%

Ba1 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.14% 0.11% 0.20% 0.59% 2.20% 10.01% 65.87% 5.53% 3.81% 1.47% 0.55% 0.48% 0.14% 0.19% 0.04% 0.11% 8.03% 0.49%

Ba2 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.10% 0.14% 0.31% 0.63% 3.52% 7.98% 65.12% 6.19% 3.63% 1.24% 0.81% 0.33% 0.21% 0.07% 0.12% 8.80% 0.71%

Ba3 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.05% 0.14% 0.15% 0.08% 0.38% 0.77% 2.77% 7.11% 64.91% 6.91% 3.01% 1.76% 0.69% 0.36% 0.08% 0.11% 9.41% 1.25%

B1 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.02% 0.07% 0.08% 0.17% 0.34% 0.62% 2.68% 6.97% 63.74% 6.33% 4.35% 1.31% 0.73% 0.22% 0.24% 10.28% 1.76%

B2 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% 0.08% 0.11% 0.12% 0.22% 0.19% 0.62% 2.03% 7.48% 62.51% 7.96% 3.54% 1.87% 0.42% 0.44% 9.61% 2.74%

B3 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.03% 0.03% 0.05% 0.03% 0.04% 0.08% 0.13% 0.23% 0.79% 2.47% 6.48% 60.65% 7.50% 3.35% 1.07% 0.77% 12.05% 4.23%

Caa1 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% 0.05% 0.10% 0.20% 0.57% 1.25% 7.55% 59.33% 9.39% 2.82% 1.24% 13.68% 3.78%

Caa2 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.03% 0.02% 0.09% 0.25% 0.71% 1.75% 6.37% 60.43% 6.61% 2.81% 14.31% 6.49%

Caa3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.02% 0.02% 0.09% 0.18% 0.89% 2.68% 9.92% 47.02% 9.22% 14.10% 15.82%

Ca_C 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.11% 0.10% 0.12% 0.07% 0.35% 1.42% 1.61% 3.30% 5.98% 38.16% 19.02% 29.67%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

41 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 36
Annual issuer-weighted corporate default rates by letter rating, 1920-2023
Year Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C IG SG All
1920 0.00% 0.00% 0.32% 0.94% 2.15% 4.38% 0.00% 0.43% 3.01% 1.23%
1921 0.00% 0.19% 0.35% 0.65% 0.44% 2.68% 13.33% 0.39% 2.15% 1.07%
1922 0.00% 0.18% 0.17% 1.10% 1.08% 1.71% 7.63% 0.51% 1.76% 1.01%
1923 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.62% 0.93% 2.27% 5.93% 0.24% 1.70% 0.80%
1924 0.00% 0.37% 0.00% 0.13% 2.06% 2.70% 12.84% 0.14% 2.85% 1.15%
1925 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 0.71% 1.74% 2.59% 14.40% 0.32% 2.56% 1.17%
1926 0.00% 0.40% 0.15% 0.11% 1.39% 2.90% 3.70% 0.19% 1.91% 0.77%
1927 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 0.00% 1.30% 1.98% 12.84% 0.07% 1.83% 0.74%
1928 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 1.32% 10.48% 0.00% 0.88% 0.36%
1929 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.44% 0.82% 0.92% 9.73% 0.24% 1.40% 0.71%
1930 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 0.92% 3.16% 7.72% 0.15% 2.20% 1.04%
1931 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 1.08% 3.00% 9.52% 31.67% 0.50% 7.90% 3.80%
1932 0.00% 0.67% 1.10% 0.92% 6.10% 13.98% 24.06% 0.86% 10.99% 5.50%
1933 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 1.77% 11.71% 16.15% 25.92% 0.79% 15.77% 8.53%
1934 0.00% 0.62% 0.31% 0.86% 2.52% 4.22% 16.50% 0.59% 5.89% 3.40%
1935 0.00% 0.00% 1.43% 1.92% 5.12% 4.27% 13.02% 1.29% 6.25% 3.93%
1936 0.00% 0.85% 0.54% 0.33% 1.23% 2.38% 7.80% 0.48% 2.71% 1.63%
1937 0.00% 0.00% 0.51% 1.04% 0.99% 2.67% 9.07% 0.62% 2.74% 1.72%
1938 0.00% 0.85% 1.64% 1.99% 0.98% 1.47% 12.81% 1.55% 2.59% 2.11%
1939 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 0.62% 1.74% 6.07% 0.41% 1.77% 1.22%
1940 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.37% 0.43% 3.29% 11.83% 0.59% 3.55% 2.47%
1941 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97% 0.81% 5.07% 0.00% 1.71% 1.08%
1942 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.78% 2.00% 0.00% 0.73% 0.45%
1943 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.61% 0.37%
1944 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.49% 2.55% 0.00% 0.66% 0.39%
1945 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.57% 0.00% 0.56% 0.31%
1946 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1947 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.71% 2.78% 0.00% 0.63% 0.31%
1948 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1949 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.36% 1.02% 8.57% 0.00% 1.92% 0.84%
1950 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1951 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.76% 0.00% 0.43% 0.18%
1952 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1953 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1954 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.14% 0.00% 0.47% 0.17%
1955 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.52% 0.17%
1956 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1957 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.14%
1958 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1959 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1960 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.25% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.75% 0.25%
1961 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% 8.70% 0.00% 1.07% 0.35%
1962 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 1.47% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52% 0.47%
1963 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.16% 1.47% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15% 0.35%
1964 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1965 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1966 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.44% 0.12%
1967 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1968 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.11%
1969 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1970 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.54% 4.24% 19.44% 50.00% 0.27% 8.68% 2.63%
1971 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 0.00% 12.50% 0.00% 1.16% 0.29%
1972 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.90% 37.50% 0.00% 1.92% 0.45%
1973 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.46% 0.00% 3.85% 37.50% 0.23% 1.28% 0.46%

42 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Year Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C IG SG All

1974 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.51% 7.16% 0.00% 0.00% 1.33% 0.28%
1975 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03% 6.16% 0.00% 0.00% 1.74% 0.36%
1976 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.87% 0.18%
1977 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.54% 3.23% 33.33% 0.11% 1.36% 0.35%
1978 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.12% 5.41% 0.00% 0.00% 1.82% 0.35%
1979 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.51% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.43% 0.09%
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 33.33% 0.00% 1.63% 0.34%
1981 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 0.16%
1982 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.33% 2.79% 2.22% 21.43% 0.21% 3.54% 1.04%
1983 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.16% 2.22% 45.05% 0.00% 4.27% 0.95%
1984 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.61% 0.52% 5.17% 18.18% 0.17% 3.08% 0.85%
1985 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.87% 7.11% 6.25% 0.00% 3.72% 0.94%
1986 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.84% 2.37% 10.30% 16.18% 0.21% 6.11% 1.81%
1987 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.04% 5.35% 9.82% 0.00% 4.28% 1.41%
1988 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.36% 5.61% 12.50% 0.00% 3.73% 1.34%
1989 0.00% 0.50% 0.00% 0.51% 2.97% 7.53% 20.39% 0.25% 5.90% 2.21%
1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 3.53% 13.68% 45.06% 0.06% 10.43% 3.51%
1991 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 3.84% 13.12% 15.97% 0.06% 9.08% 2.78%
1992 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.34% 7.64% 15.67% 0.00% 4.93% 1.33%
1993 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.62% 4.35% 13.95% 0.00% 3.40% 0.89%
1994 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.19% 5.31% 0.00% 2.34% 0.65%
1995 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 3.83% 11.55% 0.00% 3.07% 0.89%
1996 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.51% 9.90% 0.00% 1.65% 0.50%
1997 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 2.00% 9.09% 0.00% 1.89% 0.61%
1998 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 0.76% 3.69% 8.86% 0.03% 2.98% 1.11%
1999 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 1.38% 5.04% 15.04% 0.03% 5.33% 2.09%
2000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 1.44% 5.64% 17.74% 0.13% 6.15% 2.46%
2001 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.18% 1.17% 8.72% 28.27% 0.12% 9.31% 3.53%
2002 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.84% 1.77% 4.57% 26.40% 0.37% 7.79% 2.92%
2003 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 2.56% 20.45% 0.00% 5.32% 1.83%
2004 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.38% 0.68% 10.90% 0.00% 2.30% 0.78%
2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.71% 7.27% 0.06% 1.72% 0.64%
2006 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 1.09% 5.50% 0.00% 1.67% 0.59%
2007 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 4.78% 0.00% 0.99% 0.36%
2008 0.00% 0.50% 0.40% 1.01% 2.33% 4.04% 10.70% 0.62% 5.47% 2.50%
2009 0.00% 0.00% 0.24% 0.92% 1.77% 6.80% 26.39% 0.42% 12.11% 4.98%
2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.07% 0.00% 0.39% 8.63% 0.09% 3.07% 1.24%
2011 0.00% 0.19% 0.00% 0.36% 0.16% 0.34% 6.22% 0.19% 2.08% 0.94%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.14% 0.54% 8.01% 0.03% 2.81% 1.24%
2013 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.12% 0.60% 1.01% 6.29% 0.09% 2.69% 1.25%
2014 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.06% 0.15% 0.50% 4.76% 0.06% 2.03% 0.97%
2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% 2.42% 6.62% 0.00% 3.71% 1.75%
2016 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 1.68% 9.10% 0.00% 4.63% 2.20%
2017 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.45% 7.55% 0.00% 3.59% 1.71%
2018 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 5.17% 0.00% 2.45% 1.17%
2019 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 1.20% 6.52% 0.06% 3.20% 1.53%
2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 0.13% 3.98% 12.83% 0.06% 6.92% 3.23%
2021 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.33% 2.96% 0.00% 1.75% 0.80%
2022 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.91% 4.17% 5.14% 3.84% 0.48% 4.29% 2.28%
2023 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.11% 0.73% 0.72% 9.16% 0.11% 4.83% 2.28%
Mean 0.00% 0.05% 0.09% 0.26% 1.02% 3.09% 10.27% 0.14% 2.88% 1.20%
Median 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.52% 1.86% 7.67% 0.00% 1.92% 0.84%
Std Dev 0.00% 0.17% 0.25% 0.44% 1.60% 3.68% 10.96% 0.26% 2.90% 1.33%
Min 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Max 0.00% 0.85% 1.64% 1.99% 11.71% 19.44% 50.00% 1.55% 15.77% 8.53%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

43 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 37
Annual issuer-weighted corporate default rates by alphanumeric rating, 1983-2023
Year Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa2 Caa3 Ca-C IG SG All
1983 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.08% 1.01% 0.00% 7.56% 45.05% 0.00% 4.27% 0.95%
1984 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 0.00% 1.64% 0.00% 6.49% 0.00% 3.03% 18.18% 0.17% 3.08% 0.85%
1985 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.64% 1.15% 4.53% 5.00% 13.40% 6.25% 0.00% 3.72% 0.94%
1986 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.81% 1.84% 1.27% 1.09% 4.00% 8.66% 6.67% 15.08% 16.18% 0.21% 6.11% 1.81%
1987 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.21% 0.90% 3.14% 4.17% 5.45% 7.88% 10.16% 0.00% 0.00% 4.28% 1.41%
1988 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.78% 4.24% 4.33% 9.96% 10.53% 50.00% 0.00% 3.73% 1.34%
1989 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.74% 0.79% 1.02% 1.79% 4.62% 6.70% 5.30% 13.27% 21.49% 0.00% 0.25% 5.90% 2.21%
1990 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.95% 1.08% 5.84% 3.50% 6.86% 16.72% 24.67% 46.46% 33.33% 0.06% 10.43% 3.51%
1991 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 0.00% 7.22% 7.41% 7.16% 29.50% 16.15% 16.67% 0.06% 9.08% 2.78%
1992 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.76% 1.45% 1.37% 24.00% 17.51% 7.69% 0.00% 4.93% 1.33%
1993 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03% 0.00% 0.80% 2.83% 1.32% 11.84% 14.97% 9.09% 0.00% 3.40% 0.89%
1994 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.52% 2.68% 9.50% 5.01% 7.14% 0.00% 2.34% 0.65%
1995 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 3.79% 5.67% 0.94% 7.69% 23.07% 0.00% 3.07% 0.89%
1996 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.39% 1.25% 3.87% 10.61% 5.88% 0.00% 1.65% 0.50%
1997 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 0.34% 0.50% 7.02% 7.91% 15.19% 0.00% 1.89% 0.61%
1998 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 1.19% 1.20% 3.15% 3.50% 4.87% 4.08% 9.99% 37.50% 5.00% 0.03% 2.98% 1.11%
1999 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% 0.47% 0.92% 2.70% 3.05% 4.29% 8.32% 10.53% 21.65% 14.98% 19.33% 0.03% 5.33% 2.09%
2000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.00% 0.86% 0.49% 1.37% 2.53% 1.57% 4.03% 11.65% 14.34% 24.39% 17.22% 17.06% 0.13% 6.15% 2.46%
2001 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 0.00% 0.27% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97% 2.64% 3.26% 9.66% 12.98% 25.26% 24.97% 39.02% 34.81% 0.12% 9.31% 3.53%
2002 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.43% 0.73% 0.68% 1.16% 2.04% 1.74% 1.53% 1.93% 4.77% 6.96% 18.03% 20.57% 32.86% 37.88% 0.37% 7.79% 2.92%
2003 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.65% 1.41% 0.70% 2.38% 4.93% 8.73% 25.27% 27.17% 28.65% 0.00% 5.32% 1.83%
2004 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.58% 1.71% 8.09% 8.31% 8.65% 27.66% 0.00% 2.30% 0.78%
2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 1.96% 5.09% 5.44% 21.37% 13.82% 0.06% 1.72% 0.64%
2006 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.66% 0.65% 0.32% 2.12% 2.27% 5.72% 13.17% 17.22% 0.00% 1.67% 0.59%
2007 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40% 9.82% 9.82% 46.15% 0.00% 0.99% 0.36%
2008 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.49% 1.02% 0.23% 0.00% 0.97% 1.37% 0.60% 0.92% 2.88% 3.33% 3.15% 4.08% 4.55% 5.70% 17.90% 35.16% 37.90% 0.62% 5.47% 2.50%
2009 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 1.02% 0.86% 0.90% 1.46% 1.74% 2.12% 3.38% 7.18% 8.82% 12.00% 33.26% 53.60% 66.13% 0.42% 12.11% 4.98%
2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.00% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 0.00% 0.28% 1.74% 7.49% 22.89% 26.98% 0.09% 3.07% 1.24%
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.87% 0.00% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.46% 0.51% 1.91% 8.39% 16.43% 23.23% 0.19% 2.08% 0.94%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 0.00% 0.77% 0.75% 2.28% 11.42% 16.45% 48.62% 0.03% 2.81% 1.24%
2013 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.00% 0.16% 0.19% 0.00% 0.00% 1.58% 0.71% 1.64% 0.84% 2.10% 7.04% 10.51% 58.04% 0.09% 2.69% 1.25%
2014 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.36% 0.35% 1.08% 0.23% 2.42% 3.41% 12.00% 28.83% 0.06% 2.03% 0.97%
2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.95% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 3.32% 3.07% 4.10% 5.04% 15.17% 36.86% 0.00% 3.71% 1.75%
2016 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 1.07% 1.01% 2.62% 3.64% 5.30% 19.65% 48.23% 0.00% 4.63% 2.20%
2017 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.42% 1.12% 0.00% 0.39% 0.85% 1.63% 4.42% 16.37% 34.75% 0.00% 3.59% 1.71%
2018 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.10% 0.88% 1.63% 1.86% 13.91% 30.44% 0.00% 2.45% 1.17%
2019 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.35% 2.49% 1.22% 4.08% 16.45% 44.95% 0.06% 3.20% 1.53%
2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 1.77% 4.59% 5.31% 6.69% 9.01% 21.81% 63.53% 0.06% 6.92% 3.23%
2021 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.74% 1.21% 1.91% 0.31% 0.80% 7.20% 13.26% 0.00% 1.75% 0.80%
2022 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.04% 1.93% 4.86% 4.19% 3.60% 3.36% 4.92% 6.80% 2.25% 1.58% 6.39% 26.29% 0.48% 4.29% 2.28%
2023 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 0.15% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.98% 0.76% 0.41% 0.93% 3.05% 4.25% 12.76% 54.97% 0.11% 4.83% 2.28%
Mean 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.04% 0.02% 0.05% 0.11% 0.17% 0.33% 0.56% 0.72% 1.48% 2.27% 3.07% 6.78% 5.79% 13.06% 19.94% 28.61% 0.09% 4.32% 1.64%
Median 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 1.45% 1.64% 4.87% 3.35% 9.82% 16.44% 27.66% 0.03% 3.71% 1.33%
Std Dev 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.17% 0.07% 0.14% 0.26% 0.33% 0.54% 1.14% 1.22% 1.61% 2.30% 3.27% 6.92% 5.87% 10.56% 11.16% 17.66% 0.14% 2.51% 0.99%
Min 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.80% 6.39% 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 0.36%
Max 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.49% 1.02% 0.41% 0.69% 1.02% 1.37% 1.93% 5.21% 5.84% 7.22% 8.66% 16.72% 29.50% 25.26% 46.46% 53.60% 66.13% 0.62% 12.11% 4.98%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

44 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 38
Average cumulative issuer-weighted global default rates by letter rating, 1920-2023
Rating\Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Aaa 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.07% 0.13% 0.20% 0.29% 0.40% 0.52% 0.66% 0.78% 0.87% 0.97% 1.00% 1.03% 1.08% 1.13% 1.17% 1.22% 1.26%
Aa 0.06% 0.17% 0.26% 0.41% 0.62% 0.87% 1.12% 1.35% 1.57% 1.81% 2.07% 2.35% 2.62% 2.88% 3.07% 3.22% 3.36% 3.53% 3.72% 3.89%
A 0.08% 0.23% 0.47% 0.72% 1.01% 1.32% 1.64% 1.96% 2.31% 2.67% 3.04% 3.40% 3.73% 4.07% 4.46% 4.81% 5.09% 5.36% 5.62% 5.89%
Baa 0.24% 0.66% 1.15% 1.69% 2.24% 2.79% 3.32% 3.90% 4.50% 5.09% 5.67% 6.26% 6.87% 7.42% 7.92% 8.43% 8.93% 9.38% 9.78% 10.22%
Ba 1.17% 2.77% 4.54% 6.38% 8.21% 9.96% 11.58% 13.13% 14.64% 16.23% 17.64% 19.04% 20.37% 21.54% 22.68% 23.77% 24.82% 25.79% 26.66% 27.39%
B 3.20% 7.35% 11.59% 15.52% 19.03% 22.12% 24.88% 27.32% 29.56% 31.57% 33.44% 35.22% 36.97% 38.69% 40.24% 41.78% 43.11% 44.28% 45.27% 46.13%
Caa-C 9.07% 16.23% 22.27% 27.41% 31.86% 35.58% 38.65% 41.32% 43.83% 45.96% 48.00% 49.79% 51.33% 52.82% 54.46% 56.08% 57.50% 58.83% 60.13% 61.41%
IG 0.13% 0.38% 0.68% 1.01% 1.37% 1.75% 2.12% 2.50% 2.90% 3.30% 3.70% 4.11% 4.50% 4.87% 5.22% 5.56% 5.86% 6.14% 6.42% 6.70%
SG 3.77% 7.55% 11.11% 14.33% 17.21% 19.72% 21.92% 23.89% 25.73% 27.47% 29.06% 30.57% 32.00% 33.33% 34.59% 35.82% 36.94% 37.96% 38.86% 39.65%
All 1.55% 3.12% 4.57% 5.87% 7.03% 8.04% 8.93% 9.74% 10.50% 11.23% 11.91% 12.56% 13.18% 13.75% 14.28% 14.80% 15.25% 15.68% 16.06% 16.43%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Exhibit 39
Average cumulative issuer-weighted global default rates by letter rating, 1970-2023
Rating\Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Aaa 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% 0.08% 0.12% 0.18% 0.23% 0.28% 0.34% 0.40% 0.46% 0.53% 0.56% 0.60% 0.64% 0.68% 0.69% 0.69% 0.69%
Aa 0.02% 0.05% 0.10% 0.18% 0.27% 0.38% 0.48% 0.58% 0.66% 0.73% 0.82% 0.92% 1.03% 1.12% 1.20% 1.27% 1.37% 1.48% 1.66% 1.83%
A 0.05% 0.15% 0.31% 0.47% 0.67% 0.89% 1.13% 1.38% 1.64% 1.91% 2.18% 2.44% 2.71% 2.99% 3.32% 3.64% 3.94% 4.26% 4.55% 4.86%
Baa 0.16% 0.42% 0.73% 1.09% 1.45% 1.82% 2.18% 2.60% 3.07% 3.54% 4.03% 4.55% 5.09% 5.62% 6.13% 6.66% 7.20% 7.68% 8.09% 8.50%
Ba 0.90% 2.42% 4.15% 5.99% 7.79% 9.48% 11.01% 12.48% 13.97% 15.52% 17.01% 18.50% 19.87% 21.15% 22.50% 23.79% 24.94% 25.93% 26.88% 27.56%
B 3.14% 7.51% 12.06% 16.28% 20.12% 23.56% 26.61% 29.32% 31.83% 34.06% 36.09% 38.00% 39.86% 41.74% 43.39% 44.98% 46.34% 47.61% 48.79% 50.01%
Caa-C 9.00% 16.22% 22.50% 27.92% 32.70% 36.66% 39.96% 42.88% 45.56% 47.77% 49.66% 51.01% 52.04% 52.74% 53.61% 54.57% 55.15% 55.70% 56.33% 56.88%
IG 0.09% 0.23% 0.42% 0.64% 0.87% 1.12% 1.36% 1.63% 1.92% 2.20% 2.50% 2.79% 3.10% 3.40% 3.71% 4.02% 4.32% 4.62% 4.90% 5.18%
SG 4.06% 8.19% 12.12% 15.65% 18.79% 21.52% 23.86% 25.95% 27.91% 29.71% 31.36% 32.92% 34.35% 35.72% 37.06% 38.34% 39.45% 40.43% 41.37% 42.15%
All 1.60% 3.19% 4.65% 5.92% 7.02% 7.96% 8.76% 9.47% 10.15% 10.77% 11.35% 11.90% 12.42% 12.91% 13.40% 13.87% 14.31% 14.71% 15.08% 15.43%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

45 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 40
Average cumulative issuer-weighted global default rates by letter rating, 1983-2023
Rating\Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Aaa 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% 0.06% 0.09% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12%
Aa 0.02% 0.06% 0.11% 0.19% 0.29% 0.37% 0.46% 0.54% 0.61% 0.69% 0.77% 0.88% 0.98% 1.05% 1.12% 1.19% 1.27% 1.39% 1.56% 1.70%
A 0.05% 0.16% 0.33% 0.50% 0.71% 0.94% 1.18% 1.43% 1.67% 1.92% 2.16% 2.40% 2.64% 2.93% 3.27% 3.60% 3.91% 4.23% 4.50% 4.78%
Baa 0.17% 0.43% 0.74% 1.08% 1.43% 1.78% 2.12% 2.51% 2.91% 3.32% 3.74% 4.19% 4.69% 5.16% 5.60% 6.06% 6.55% 6.96% 7.31% 7.61%
Ba 0.89% 2.45% 4.27% 6.18% 7.96% 9.62% 11.14% 12.56% 13.95% 15.36% 16.66% 17.96% 19.14% 20.25% 21.48% 22.59% 23.56% 24.42% 25.27% 25.78%
B 3.13% 7.52% 12.09% 16.31% 20.16% 23.62% 26.68% 29.39% 31.86% 34.04% 36.01% 37.90% 39.76% 41.64% 43.25% 44.82% 46.20% 47.54% 48.78% 50.07%
Caa-C 8.95% 16.14% 22.43% 27.87% 32.64% 36.60% 39.88% 42.79% 45.49% 47.75% 49.70% 51.08% 52.14% 52.87% 53.78% 54.80% 55.41% 55.99% 56.66% 57.24%
IG 0.09% 0.24% 0.43% 0.65% 0.88% 1.12% 1.35% 1.60% 1.85% 2.10% 2.36% 2.62% 2.89% 3.17% 3.45% 3.74% 4.02% 4.29% 4.54% 4.77%
SG 4.16% 8.40% 12.46% 16.11% 19.33% 22.12% 24.52% 26.64% 28.58% 30.34% 31.92% 33.39% 34.77% 36.08% 37.36% 38.57% 39.61% 40.58% 41.50% 42.26%
All 1.69% 3.38% 4.93% 6.28% 7.44% 8.42% 9.24% 9.97% 10.63% 11.22% 11.77% 12.28% 12.77% 13.25% 13.71% 14.16% 14.57% 14.96% 15.31% 15.62%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Exhibit 41
Average cumulative issuer-weighted global default rates by alphanumeric rating, 1983-2023
Rating\Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Aaa 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% 0.06% 0.09% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12%
Aa1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.09% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.15% 0.19% 0.24% 0.29% 0.39% 0.50% 0.63% 0.73% 0.81% 0.90% 1.00% 1.00%
Aa2 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 0.21% 0.31% 0.39% 0.47% 0.55% 0.66% 0.79% 0.89% 1.00% 1.09% 1.14% 1.18% 1.27% 1.44% 1.62% 1.79% 1.97%
Aa3 0.04% 0.11% 0.16% 0.23% 0.36% 0.47% 0.60% 0.70% 0.78% 0.85% 0.94% 1.07% 1.18% 1.25% 1.31% 1.35% 1.38% 1.48% 1.66% 1.84%
A1 0.06% 0.17% 0.35% 0.52% 0.70% 0.88% 1.03% 1.17% 1.29% 1.42% 1.58% 1.75% 1.93% 2.17% 2.42% 2.63% 2.86% 3.06% 3.18% 3.30%
A2 0.04% 0.13% 0.27% 0.45% 0.64% 0.92% 1.21% 1.50% 1.79% 2.10% 2.40% 2.66% 2.92% 3.24% 3.60% 4.01% 4.43% 4.81% 5.10% 5.39%
A3 0.06% 0.18% 0.36% 0.53% 0.78% 1.02% 1.28% 1.58% 1.87% 2.15% 2.41% 2.69% 2.98% 3.29% 3.67% 4.03% 4.29% 4.66% 5.05% 5.48%
Baa1 0.10% 0.26% 0.44% 0.64% 0.83% 1.07% 1.30% 1.55% 1.83% 2.15% 2.53% 2.98% 3.44% 3.89% 4.33% 4.76% 5.19% 5.43% 5.60% 5.82%
Baa2 0.16% 0.41% 0.68% 0.99% 1.26% 1.55% 1.84% 2.17% 2.53% 2.89% 3.33% 3.74% 4.18% 4.59% 5.04% 5.48% 5.97% 6.43% 6.90% 7.26%
Baa3 0.27% 0.66% 1.14% 1.71% 2.33% 2.92% 3.44% 4.08% 4.70% 5.26% 5.74% 6.24% 6.83% 7.43% 7.86% 8.40% 8.97% 9.54% 9.98% 10.32%
Ba1 0.51% 1.51% 2.68% 3.81% 5.01% 6.24% 7.26% 8.12% 8.84% 9.62% 10.44% 11.29% 12.04% 12.72% 13.68% 14.46% 15.12% 15.80% 16.75% 17.45%
Ba2 0.74% 2.00% 3.46% 4.94% 6.46% 7.83% 9.04% 10.21% 11.59% 13.04% 14.30% 15.55% 16.66% 17.78% 19.07% 20.14% 20.94% 21.66% 22.35% 22.45%
Ba3 1.33% 3.61% 6.31% 9.27% 11.80% 14.14% 16.43% 18.66% 20.76% 22.83% 24.71% 26.59% 28.36% 30.04% 31.56% 33.17% 34.77% 36.06% 37.00% 37.71%
B1 1.88% 5.05% 8.53% 11.95% 15.37% 18.44% 21.51% 24.26% 26.55% 28.47% 30.24% 31.82% 33.60% 35.48% 37.11% 38.83% 40.55% 42.34% 44.03% 45.66%
B2 2.91% 7.40% 11.95% 16.20% 19.91% 23.40% 26.35% 28.78% 31.43% 34.01% 36.43% 38.92% 40.95% 42.79% 44.43% 46.17% 47.71% 49.12% 50.30% 51.77%
B3 4.52% 10.02% 15.72% 20.80% 25.29% 29.23% 32.45% 35.46% 38.04% 40.14% 41.93% 43.57% 45.41% 47.46% 49.12% 50.21% 50.79% 51.22% 51.78% 52.19%
Caa 6.93% 13.69% 19.78% 25.17% 30.11% 34.28% 37.66% 40.70% 43.54% 45.99% 48.07% 49.55% 50.71% 51.58% 52.67% 53.95% 54.44% 54.93% 55.84% 56.65%
Ca-C 33.62% 46.61% 55.71% 62.19% 64.97% 66.09% 68.12% 69.46% 70.49% 70.94% 71.64% 72.15% 72.47% 72.47% 72.47% 72.47% 73.14% 73.69% 73.69% 73.69%
IG 0.09% 0.24% 0.43% 0.65% 0.88% 1.12% 1.35% 1.60% 1.85% 2.10% 2.36% 2.62% 2.89% 3.17% 3.45% 3.74% 4.02% 4.29% 4.54% 4.77%
SG 4.16% 8.40% 12.46% 16.11% 19.33% 22.12% 24.52% 26.64% 28.58% 30.34% 31.92% 33.39% 34.77% 36.08% 37.36% 38.57% 39.61% 40.58% 41.50% 42.26%
All 1.69% 3.38% 4.93% 6.28% 7.44% 8.42% 9.24% 9.97% 10.63% 11.22% 11.77% 12.28% 12.77% 13.25% 13.71% 14.16% 14.57% 14.96% 15.31% 15.62%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

46 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 42
Average cumulative issuer-weighted global default rates by alphanumeric rating, 1998-2023
Rating\Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Aaa 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Aa1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 0.11% 0.17%
Aa2 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 0.24% 0.31% 0.39% 0.49% 0.58% 0.72% 0.83%
Aa3 0.04% 0.11% 0.15% 0.23% 0.36% 0.50% 0.70% 0.86% 0.97% 1.07%
A1 0.08% 0.18% 0.32% 0.48% 0.67% 0.87% 1.06% 1.23% 1.39% 1.55%
A2 0.06% 0.16% 0.33% 0.47% 0.67% 0.97% 1.26% 1.56% 1.92% 2.35%
A3 0.07% 0.20% 0.39% 0.58% 0.86% 1.06% 1.33% 1.64% 1.99% 2.35%
Baa1 0.11% 0.26% 0.43% 0.61% 0.75% 0.97% 1.18% 1.46% 1.78% 2.16%
Baa2 0.18% 0.41% 0.66% 0.88% 1.07% 1.27% 1.46% 1.67% 1.96% 2.22%
Baa3 0.27% 0.65% 1.12% 1.63% 2.18% 2.63% 3.07% 3.68% 4.27% 4.87%
Ba1 0.42% 1.31% 2.23% 3.08% 4.16% 5.23% 6.21% 7.07% 7.84% 8.66%
Ba2 0.71% 1.80% 3.10% 4.41% 5.85% 7.10% 8.21% 9.42% 10.86% 12.46%
Ba3 0.94% 2.52% 4.33% 6.38% 8.06% 9.65% 11.45% 13.50% 15.52% 17.48%
B1 1.19% 3.63% 6.36% 9.23% 11.86% 14.17% 16.58% 18.83% 20.77% 22.59%
B2 2.62% 6.83% 11.26% 15.50% 19.02% 22.29% 25.04% 27.44% 30.19% 32.87%
B3 3.45% 8.48% 14.05% 18.96% 23.16% 26.78% 29.69% 32.56% 35.28% 37.49%
Caa1 4.10% 9.70% 15.19% 20.29% 25.19% 29.40% 32.77% 35.64% 38.48% 41.07%
Caa2 6.36% 12.77% 18.85% 24.38% 29.34% 33.53% 36.97% 40.29% 43.32% 45.38%
Caa3 17.05% 29.15% 37.80% 44.02% 49.16% 53.65% 57.45% 60.50% 62.40% 63.81%
Ca-C 35.39% 49.27% 58.93% 65.63% 68.54% 69.72% 71.82% 73.18% 74.21% 74.66%
IG 0.11% 0.27% 0.46% 0.66% 0.88% 1.10% 1.33% 1.59% 1.88% 2.18%
SG 4.13% 8.33% 12.32% 15.85% 18.89% 21.47% 23.70% 25.74% 27.70% 29.49%
All 1.79% 3.56% 5.18% 6.56% 7.72% 8.68% 9.49% 10.25% 10.97% 11.65%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

47 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 43
Average cumulative issuer-weighted global default rates by industry group, 1970-2023
Industry\Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Aerospace & Defense 1.08% 2.19% 3.23% 3.95% 4.49% 4.80% 5.00% 5.16% 5.24% 5.25%
Automotive 2.25% 4.54% 6.70% 8.70% 10.60% 12.35% 13.93% 15.45% 16.85% 17.89%
Banking 0.59% 1.19% 1.77% 2.33% 2.88% 3.39% 3.86% 4.33% 4.82% 5.31%
Beverage, Food, & Tobacco 1.17% 2.29% 3.40% 4.39% 5.19% 5.90% 6.44% 6.84% 7.26% 7.59%
Capital Equipment 1.59% 3.30% 5.00% 6.54% 7.85% 8.88% 9.72% 10.45% 11.13% 11.79%
Chemicals, Plastics, & Rubber 1.04% 2.20% 3.34% 4.37% 5.36% 6.16% 6.71% 7.16% 7.63% 8.09%
Construction & Building 3.12% 6.46% 9.67% 12.56% 15.15% 17.51% 19.62% 21.75% 23.65% 25.14%
Consumer goods: Durable 3.04% 6.51% 10.09% 13.46% 16.77% 19.50% 21.31% 22.92% 24.61% 26.19%
Consumer goods: Non-durable 3.94% 8.19% 12.11% 15.30% 17.93% 20.08% 21.99% 23.66% 24.94% 25.98%
Containers, Packaging, & Glass 2.22% 4.66% 6.74% 8.52% 10.07% 11.41% 12.67% 13.90% 14.82% 15.74%
Energy: Electricity 3.17% 6.35% 9.30% 11.66% 13.96% 16.17% 18.33% 20.39% 22.46% 24.70%
Energy: Oil & Gas 2.75% 5.26% 7.47% 9.33% 10.89% 12.21% 13.38% 14.43% 15.43% 16.32%
Environmental Industries 2.99% 5.75% 7.93% 9.68% 11.03% 12.17% 12.96% 13.83% 14.78% 15.81%
Finance* 1.09% 2.19% 3.24% 4.09% 4.81% 5.44% 5.96% 6.47% 7.02% 7.55%
Forest Products & Paper 2.34% 4.58% 6.77% 8.78% 10.52% 12.06% 13.35% 14.53% 15.45% 16.22%
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 1.66% 3.32% 4.82% 6.18% 7.35% 8.45% 9.46% 10.22% 10.98% 11.56%
High Tech Industries 1.57% 3.20% 4.65% 5.98% 7.07% 8.05% 8.99% 9.94% 10.90% 11.83%
Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure 3.91% 7.77% 11.18% 14.25% 16.90% 19.19% 21.17% 23.03% 24.69% 26.28%
Insurance 0.28% 0.58% 0.89% 1.23% 1.56% 1.90% 2.22% 2.53% 2.86% 3.17%
Media: Advertising, Printing & 5.90% 11.71% 16.80% 20.96% 24.75% 28.06% 30.63% 32.57% 34.45% 36.54%
Publishing
Media: Broadcasting & Subscription 3.24% 6.63% 10.10% 13.08% 15.85% 18.29% 20.34% 22.14% 23.71% 25.11%
Media: Diversified & Production 2.23% 4.40% 6.38% 7.70% 8.63% 9.42% 9.88% 10.26% 10.68% 11.14%
Metals & Mining 3.02% 6.06% 8.84% 11.17% 13.05% 14.71% 16.27% 17.67% 19.02% 20.33%
REIT 0.50% 1.02% 1.47% 1.89% 2.23% 2.56% 2.83% 3.07% 3.35% 3.67%
Retail 3.37% 6.72% 9.98% 12.95% 15.59% 17.84% 19.71% 21.35% 22.81% 24.10%
Services: Business 2.35% 4.77% 7.03% 9.13% 11.01% 12.60% 14.02% 15.21% 16.39% 17.55%
Services: Consumer 2.55% 5.12% 7.51% 9.84% 11.99% 14.09% 15.90% 17.57% 19.15% 20.71%
Sovereign & Public Finance 0.43% 0.86% 1.24% 1.54% 1.76% 1.92% 1.97% 1.97% 1.97% 1.97%
Telecommunications 2.30% 4.53% 6.51% 8.12% 9.39% 10.31% 11.00% 11.48% 11.89% 12.23%
Transportation: Cargo 2.07% 3.86% 5.42% 6.77% 7.80% 8.73% 9.45% 10.07% 10.64% 11.26%
Transportation: Consumer 2.60% 5.08% 7.54% 9.97% 12.13% 13.92% 15.53% 17.14% 18.79% 20.41%
Utilities: Electric 0.17% 0.32% 0.47% 0.61% 0.75% 0.87% 0.98% 1.09% 1.22% 1.33%
Utilities: Oil & Gas 0.15% 0.27% 0.41% 0.55% 0.67% 0.81% 0.93% 1.01% 1.09% 1.17%
Utilities: Water 0.18% 0.37% 0.52% 0.64% 0.76% 0.76% 0.76% 0.76% 0.76% 0.76%
Wholesale 3.26% 6.95% 10.34% 12.82% 14.76% 16.34% 17.18% 17.90% 18.53% 19.16%

* Non-bank and non-insurance financial companies

Source: Moody's Investors Service

48 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 44
Annual default rates by broad industry group, 1970-2023
Beverage, Chemicals, Constructi Consumer Consumer Containers, Forest Healthcare &
Aerospace Food, & Capital Plastics, & on & goods: goods: Non- Packaging, & Energy: Energy: Oil Environmental Products & Pharmaceutica High Tech
& Defense Automotive Banking Tobacco Equipment Rubber Building Durable durable Glass Electricity & Gas Industries Finance* Paper ls Industries

1970 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.70%
1971 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1972 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1973 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1974 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1975 0.00% 3.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.76% 0.00%
1976 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1977 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1978 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70% 1.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.13%
1979 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.78%
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70%
1981 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1982 0.00% 2.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.00%
1983 0.00% 7.69% 0.00% 1.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75%
1984 0.00% 2.78% 0.00% 1.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.98% 0.00% 0.00% 2.22% 4.84%
1985 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 2.08% 0.00% 0.00% 1.69% 0.00% 3.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52%
1986 2.86% 0.00% 0.00% 1.19% 0.00% 1.89% 1.69% 5.88% 0.00% 0.00% 8.31% 0.00% 0.00% 1.41% 0.00%
1987 0.00% 1.75% 0.28% 0.00% 2.43% 0.00% 4.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.53% 0.00% 0.00% 3.69% 1.11%
1988 2.33% 0.00% 1.45% 0.00% 0.00% 1.67% 2.70% 4.35% 3.64% 0.00% 4.76% 2.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.54% 1.68%
1989 0.00% 7.41% 1.49% 2.20% 0.00% 0.00% 8.77% 0.00% 3.80% 10.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.68% 0.00% 2.52% 1.76%
1990 0.00% 3.85% 1.84% 5.49% 2.61% 0.00% 16.93% 4.76% 9.90% 0.00% 8.33% 1.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15% 5.68%
1991 2.17% 4.19% 1.40% 0.00% 4.54% 0.00% 7.55% 5.88% 6.09% 0.00% 4.35% 3.06% 0.00% 0.00% 5.41% 4.88% 2.22%
1992 0.00% 0.00% 0.32% 1.20% 3.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.98% 7.69% 0.00% 0.79% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.45% 3.35%
1993 2.22% 0.00% 0.30% 1.11% 4.93% 0.00% 1.69% 0.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.25% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1994 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03% 0.85% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.17% 1.02% 3.00%
1995 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.89% 0.83% 0.00% 5.02% 0.00% 7.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.63% 0.00% 1.98% 1.79% 0.98% 1.87%
1996 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.82% 0.72% 0.00% 1.05% 0.00% 4.37% 5.56% 0.00% 0.57% 5.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03%
1997 0.00% 1.35% 0.00% 0.76% 0.00% 0.00% 1.11% 0.00% 6.43% 4.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.85% 1.79%
1998 0.00% 1.09% 0.30% 0.68% 0.00% 1.59% 0.00% 0.00% 4.42% 0.00% 0.00% 1.28% 5.56% 1.93% 1.18% 3.03% 0.73%
1999 0.00% 0.92% 0.14% 1.82% 1.40% 1.49% 6.38% 10.99% 4.29% 0.00% 0.00% 6.13% 4.35% 1.82% 1.06% 5.26% 2.67%
2000 1.56% 5.07% 0.00% 2.83% 4.19% 1.45% 1.94% 3.57% 14.34% 4.55% 0.00% 0.39% 15.79% 0.60% 6.94% 4.66% 3.17%

49 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Beverage, Chemicals, Constructi Consumer Consumer Containers, Forest Healthcare &

Aerospace Food, & Capital Plastics, & on & goods: goods: Non- Packaging, & Energy: Energy: Oil Environmental Products & Pharmaceutica High Tech
& Defense Automotive Banking Tobacco Equipment Rubber Building Durable durable Glass Electricity & Gas Industries Finance* Paper ls Industries

2001 4.59% 5.36% 0.07% 2.23% 5.18% 5.68% 4.71% 3.57% 15.50% 11.54% 1.79% 1.17% 11.11% 3.58% 7.53% 1.47% 4.50%
2002 0.00% 1.74% 0.56% 1.62% 2.05% 0.00% 5.04% 3.23% 6.01% 4.88% 8.87% 2.25% 13.33% 0.00% 3.31% 0.70% 2.72%
2003 0.00% 2.60% 0.08% 1.66% 2.52% 4.36% 2.41% 0.00% 2.74% 0.00% 11.85% 0.00% 0.00% 0.62% 1.10% 2.85% 3.47%
2004 0.00% 2.51% 0.00% 1.65% 0.96% 0.00% 2.27% 2.78% 4.49% 2.08% 0.00% 0.34% 0.00% 0.00% 1.18% 0.73% 0.00%
2005 0.00% 5.22% 0.07% 0.00% 0.95% 0.00% 0.00% 4.17% 1.59% 4.40% 4.00% 0.35% 0.00% 0.64% 1.27% 0.00% 0.00%
2006 0.00% 4.89% 0.00% 1.13% 1.49% 0.00% 2.05% 1.92% 3.04% 2.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.56%
2007 0.00% 1.69% 0.00% 1.07% 0.49% 0.00% 1.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.48% 0.76% 0.00%
2008 1.47% 4.38% 3.05% 1.59% 2.68% 1.91% 5.20% 2.00% 6.18% 10.48% 0.00% 1.59% 5.26% 3.90% 6.40% 0.78% 0.00%
2009 4.39% 19.67% 0.93% 4.33% 10.35% 7.41% 14.56% 21.42% 8.25% 9.04% 1.96% 1.93% 0.00% 5.34% 15.38% 0.74% 6.71%
2010 0.00% 1.16% 0.48% 0.57% 3.53% 0.00% 1.74% 0.00% 3.74% 0.00% 6.12% 0.96% 10.00% 2.55% 3.03% 1.42% 1.49%
2011 0.00% 1.01% 0.55% 0.00% 1.90% 0.00% 2.26% 0.00% 0.00% 5.14% 4.00% 1.27% 0.00% 0.58% 1.41% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 1.23% 0.00% 0.63% 1.64% 2.24% 1.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.22% 5.56% 0.89% 4.35% 1.72% 2.90% 0.68% 1.13%
2013 1.20% 0.93% 1.29% 1.61% 0.57% 0.64% 2.48% 0.00% 2.04% 2.13% 1.85% 1.59% 4.55% 0.00% 0.00% 1.84% 0.56%
2014 1.25% 0.00% 0.74% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 0.53% 2.22% 0.00% 0.00% 7.27% 0.49% 0.00% 0.50% 1.52% 0.00% 2.59%
2015 2.59% 0.00% 1.56% 1.95% 0.00% 0.00% 2.32% 2.00% 4.64% 0.00% 0.00% 7.06% 4.17% 0.49% 3.13% 0.00% 0.44%
2016 1.25% 0.83% 0.23% 0.50% 0.83% 1.62% 1.40% 2.33% 1.45% 0.00% 1.96% 14.66% 7.85% 2.66% 2.99% 0.62% 0.78%
2017 2.60% 0.00% 0.84% 0.00% 0.84% 0.98% 0.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.45% 6.85% 10.53% 2.38% 9.29% 0.61% 1.20%
2018 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 1.15% 0.00% 0.00% 4.08% 5.88% 1.43% 0.00% 7.12% 3.12% 0.00% 1.34% 1.69% 1.06% 0.36%
2019 1.39% 0.90% 0.31% 1.11% 1.99% 0.47% 2.17% 3.92% 4.11% 0.00% 0.00% 5.08% 0.00% 0.81% 2.00% 2.63% 0.70%
2020 4.15% 3.45% 0.39% 2.20% 2.50% 1.43% 3.30% 7.88% 7.82% 1.72% 7.81% 13.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.94% 2.51%
2021 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.00% 1.64% 0.00% 4.29% 3.92% 1.35% 0.00% 8.95% 1.76% 0.00% 0.69% 0.00% 0.92% 0.00%
2022 2.67% 0.85% 3.45% 0.00% 0.79% 2.27% 9.51% 0.00% 6.02% 1.47% 5.26% 1.17% 0.00% 0.92% 2.04% 2.71% 0.30%
2023 5.63% 3.46% 0.33% 2.01% 1.97% 2.50% 5.08% 12.15% 8.56% 2.80% 2.86% 0.62% 3.45% 1.89% 4.35% 5.20% 2.32%

50 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Media:
Hotel, Advertising, Media: Media: Sovereign &
Gaming, & Printing & Broadcasting & Diversified & Metals & Services: Services: Public Telecommun Transportation: Transportation: Utilities: Utilities: Oil & Utilities:
Leisure Insurance Publishing Subscription Production Mining REIT Retail Business Consumer Finance ications Cargo Consumer Electric Gas Water Wholesale

1970 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 18.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1971 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.92% 4.76% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1972 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.77% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1973 0.00% 3.51% 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1974 0.00% 3.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1975 0.00% 1.79% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1976 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1977 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.25% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1978 0.00% 1.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1979 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1980 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1981 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1982 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.38% 6.00% 0.00% 1.22% 1.20% 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1983 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 19.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1984 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.26% 0.00% 1.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1985 5.26% 3.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1986 2.38% 0.00% 0.00% 3.85% 5.00% 18.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.14% 8.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.76%
1987 6.49% 0.00% 5.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 7.69% 0.00% 1.08% 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 0.00% 4.35%
1988 2.04% 1.47% 0.00% 4.26% 3.57% 0.00% 0.00% 1.92% 3.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.54% 0.00% 0.00%
1989 13.81% 1.35% 0.00% 4.35% 11.27% 0.00% 5.88% 2.54% 3.13% 0.00% 10.53% 0.98% 1.12% 3.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1990 24.62% 0.00% 11.76% 6.43% 4.55% 3.81% 0.00% 6.39% 10.81% 11.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 24.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1991 2.70% 1.22% 0.00% 4.94% 4.35% 1.96% 0.00% 11.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 2.52% 30.00% 0.54% 1.79% 0.00%
1992 5.27% 0.00% 0.00% 10.53% 9.77% 5.92% 6.67% 2.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.55% 0.00% 0.00%
1993 2.27% 0.00% 0.00% 8.74% 0.00% 1.69% 0.00% 2.89% 2.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1994 5.26% 0.00% 0.00% 2.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.51% 2.33% 0.00% 0.00% 1.25% 2.94% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.70%
1995 2.61% 0.81% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.47% 2.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.64% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.57%
1996 2.26% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.75% 2.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1997 2.04% 0.62% 0.00% 2.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 1.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70%
1998 2.84% 0.00% 2.33% 2.51% 5.26% 2.89% 1.03% 5.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.94% 1.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.14%
1999 6.41% 0.00% 3.77% 3.68% 0.00% 4.14% 0.00% 1.92% 4.33% 7.41% 4.65% 1.97% 7.68% 0.00% 0.00% 1.49% 0.00% 5.60%
2000 6.06% 1.46% 1.54% 1.56% 3.23% 6.81% 0.00% 4.83% 1.98% 10.00% 4.44% 2.99% 4.13% 5.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.06%

51 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Media: Media:
Hotel, Advertising, Broadcasting Media: Sovereign & Transportati
Gaming, & Printing & & Diversified & Metals & Services: Services: Public Telecommunicati Transportation: on: Utilities: Utilities: Oil &
Leisure Insurance Publishing Subscription Production Mining REIT Retail Business Consumer Finance ons Cargo Consumer Electric Gas Utilities: Water Wholesale

2001 8.63% 0.00% 3.17% 3.85% 3.33% 13.83% 0.00% 6.53% 4.20% 3.57% 2.38% 10.14% 3.99% 1.69% 0.73% 0.00% 0.00% 12.54%
2002 1.82% 0.44% 3.43% 14.14% 7.85% 7.40% 0.88% 2.76% 2.13% 3.45% 0.00% 14.19% 4.61% 8.51% 0.00% 1.23% 3.57% 8.62%
2003 2.91% 0.78% 1.67% 5.48% 0.00% 4.48% 0.00% 2.87% 1.10% 0.00% 0.00% 8.15% 3.74% 3.42% 0.32% 1.28% 0.00% 9.33%
2004 4.06% 0.37% 0.00% 3.89% 0.00% 1.98% 0.00% 0.71% 2.26% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52% 0.00% 3.28% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 2.78%
2005 0.95% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 0.00% 0.89% 0.00% 1.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.43% 0.00% 7.81% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 2.86%
2006 0.83% 0.67% 0.00% 3.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.74% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.50%
2007 0.78% 0.00% 3.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.23% 0.74% 2.63% 0.00% 0.91% 1.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2008 9.93% 0.00% 7.37% 2.01% 6.90% 0.80% 2.44% 3.58% 0.64% 0.00% 0.00% 2.43% 5.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2009 17.65% 0.32% 35.06% 23.18% 0.00% 10.23% 5.85% 3.72% 3.13% 7.26% 0.00% 5.94% 7.37% 3.10% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 10.53%
2010 4.38% 0.37% 14.25% 2.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.06% 1.81% 0.00% 0.00% 1.56% 1.47% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2.63%
2011 3.40% 0.37% 8.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.82% 3.26% 1.24% 1.89% 0.00% 0.00% 6.10% 5.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 3.80% 0.37% 15.22% 1.04% 0.00% 2.20% 0.00% 2.14% 1.62% 6.95% 0.00% 1.72% 1.19% 1.85% 0.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2013 2.31% 0.38% 19.27% 0.91% 0.00% 1.95% 0.70% 1.35% 1.94% 0.00% 0.00% 1.67% 2.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2014 1.49% 0.00% 8.22% 0.00% 0.00% 5.29% 0.00% 2.35% 2.47% 3.44% 1.11% 1.63% 1.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2015 2.22% 0.72% 2.22% 1.03% 3.33% 6.79% 0.00% 2.11% 2.56% 4.75% 0.00% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 0.00% 0.00% 1.61%
2016 0.69% 0.00% 16.19% 0.00% 0.00% 9.30% 0.00% 3.67% 1.46% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57% 2.12% 1.52% 0.25% 0.00% 0.00% 5.94%
2017 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.18% 2.94% 2.03% 0.00% 7.08% 3.98% 1.41% 0.00% 1.57% 3.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.96%
2018 0.00% 0.00% 6.58% 1.05% 0.00% 1.93% 0.00% 7.38% 2.34% 0.00% 0.00% 1.02% 2.02% 0.00% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 4.37%
2019 2.06% 0.00% 3.33% 1.11% 0.00% 3.17% 0.00% 5.56% 2.86% 1.52% 1.08% 3.10% 2.91% 0.00% 0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 2.86%
2020 7.49% 0.00% 14.18% 0.00% 0.00% 2.65% 0.90% 12.51% 7.03% 10.02% 0.00% 3.23% 5.04% 4.07% 0.25% 0.00% 0.00% 5.54%
2021 1.22% 0.00% 4.00% 0.00% 5.13% 0.67% 0.44% 1.18% 1.89% 0.00% 0.00% 1.13% 1.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.39%
2022 2.25% 0.00% 8.68% 1.23% 2.38% 8.47% 0.89% 2.75% 1.07% 1.03% 0.00% 3.39% 4.09% 3.45% 0.73% 0.83% 2.33% 1.27%
2023 5.29% 0.00% 6.16% 3.93% 2.50% 0.83% 0.49% 4.95% 3.70% 3.42% 0.00% 6.62% 2.12% 2.22% 0.49% 0.00% 0.00% 1.14%

* Non-bank and non-insurance financial companies.

Source: Moody's Investors Service

52 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 45
Annual volume-weighted corporate bond default rates by letter rating, 1994-2023
Year Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C IG SG All
1994 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.29% 22.76% 0.00% 2.13% 0.43%
1995 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.32% 12.41% 0.00% 3.08% 0.71%
1996 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.29% 18.46% 0.00% 2.34% 0.67%
1997 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 3.07% 6.42% 0.00% 1.91% 0.49%
1998 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.65% 3.22% 11.79% 0.00% 2.87% 0.85%
1999 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 1.15% 5.50% 21.19% 0.03% 5.88% 1.13%
2000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.62% 1.95% 5.30% 19.99% 0.14% 5.63% 1.30%
2001 0.00% 0.00% 0.72% 0.96% 1.28% 14.34% 50.28% 0.55% 15.24% 2.95%
2002 0.00% 0.00% 2.72% 2.30% 5.25% 16.06% 78.06% 1.86% 21.56% 4.90%
2003 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.62% 3.69% 16.17% 0.00% 5.95% 1.04%
2004 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 9.19% 0.00% 1.88% 0.33%
2005 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.00% 0.76% 18.50% 0.07% 3.79% 0.75%
2006 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 1.07% 4.00% 0.00% 1.05% 0.21%
2007 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 4.63% 0.00% 0.82% 0.16%
2008 0.00% 0.82% 2.37% 1.11% 8.27% 1.05% 11.16% 1.47% 5.80% 2.22%
2009 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.75% 3.45% 5.19% 38.84% 0.22% 16.15% 2.74%
2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00% 0.13% 6.22% 0.08% 1.70% 0.35%
2011 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 0.40% 0.00% 0.17% 7.16% 0.15% 1.46% 0.40%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.22% 11.19% 0.01% 2.05% 0.40%
2013 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% 0.87% 4.37% 0.04% 1.09% 0.26%
2014 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.11% 0.32% 9.26% 0.01% 1.74% 0.39%
2015 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.81% 1.38% 17.04% 0.00% 3.47% 0.79%
2016 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.94% 17.97% 0.00% 3.27% 0.69%
2017 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33% 0.28% 9.77% 0.00% 1.82% 0.36%
2018 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 11.85% 0.00% 1.92% 0.35%
2019 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.42% 0.00% 1.38% 16.45% 0.22% 2.82% 0.66%
2020 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 3.63% 35.52% 0.01% 6.26% 1.02%
2021 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.43% 0.00% 0.31% 0.06%
2022 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.97% 0.35% 8.21% 0.14% 1.56% 0.40%
2023 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.03% 0.00% 0.06% 17.03% 0.05% 2.11% 0.38%
Mean 0.00% 0.03% 0.20% 0.24% 0.94% 2.63% 17.28% 0.17% 4.25% 0.91%
Median 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 1.06% 12.13% 0.01% 2.23% 0.58%
Std Dev 0.00% 0.15% 0.65% 0.49% 1.89% 3.83% 15.68% 0.42% 4.91% 1.03%
Min 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.43% 0.00% 0.31% 0.06%
Max 0.00% 0.82% 2.72% 2.30% 8.27% 16.06% 78.06% 1.86% 21.56% 4.90%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Exhibit 46
Average volume-weighted corporate bond default rates by letter rating, 1994-2023
Rating\Year 1 2 3 4 5
Aaa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Aa 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
A 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Baa 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
Ba 0.5% 1.2% 1.8% 2.6% 3.2%
B 2.0% 4.7% 7.5% 9.8% 11.3%
Caa-C 14.6% 24.6% 31.5% 35.0% 37.1%
IG 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6%
SG 3.2% 6.2% 8.7% 10.5% 11.7%
All 0.7% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.7%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

53 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Exhibit 47
Cumulative issuer-weighted default rates by annual cohort, 1970-2023
1/1/70

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 39 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%

Aa 77 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.45% 1.45% 1.45% 2.94% 2.94% 2.94% 2.94%

A 254 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 0.41% 0.84% 0.84% 0.84% 0.84% 0.84% 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% 1.79% 1.79% 2.84% 2.84%

Baa 372 0.54% 0.54% 0.54% 1.12% 1.42% 1.42% 1.73% 2.37% 3.04% 3.04% 3.40% 3.40% 4.59% 5.00% 5.42% 5.87% 7.25% 8.29% 9.35% 9.92%

Ba 238 4.24% 5.12% 5.57% 6.05% 7.04% 8.07% 8.61% 9.21% 10.46% 10.46% 10.46% 12.02% 14.56% 15.49% 15.49% 17.58% 21.08% 23.61% 23.61% 25.08%

B 36 19.44% 19.44% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 22.32% 30.50% 30.50% 30.50% 30.50% 36.29% 36.29% 36.29% 36.29%

Caa-C 16 50.00% 56.25% 75.00% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63% 90.63%

IG 742 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 0.70% 0.84% 0.99% 1.14% 1.44% 1.76% 1.76% 2.09% 2.09% 2.61% 2.97% 3.15% 3.34% 4.30% 4.90% 5.73% 5.95%

SG 290 8.68% 9.76% 11.60% 12.38% 13.19% 14.03% 14.47% 15.44% 16.45% 16.45% 16.45% 17.69% 21.01% 21.73% 21.73% 23.35% 26.97% 28.93% 28.93% 30.10%

All 1032 2.63% 2.93% 3.43% 3.95% 4.27% 4.60% 4.82% 5.28% 5.76% 5.76% 6.01% 6.28% 7.37% 7.79% 7.94% 8.39% 9.79% 10.61% 11.29% 11.65%
1/1/71

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 40 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%

Aa 74 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75%

A 282 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.37% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 1.14% 1.14% 1.55% 1.96% 1.96% 1.96% 2.40% 2.40% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%

Baa 398 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.80% 1.07% 1.37% 1.97% 2.59% 2.59% 2.93% 2.93% 4.06% 4.45% 4.85% 5.28% 6.58% 7.55% 8.55% 9.08% 10.22%

Ba 228 0.89% 1.33% 1.82% 2.81% 3.84% 4.38% 4.99% 6.24% 6.24% 6.24% 7.80% 10.32% 11.25% 11.25% 13.31% 17.94% 20.49% 20.49% 21.96% 21.96%

B 27 0.00% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 15.87% 15.87% 15.87% 15.87% 23.51% 23.51% 23.51% 23.51% 23.51%

Caa-C 8 12.50% 50.00% 62.50% 62.50% 62.50% 62.50% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25% 81.25%

IG 794 0.00% 0.00% 0.39% 0.53% 0.80% 0.94% 1.22% 1.51% 1.51% 1.82% 1.82% 2.47% 2.80% 2.97% 3.15% 3.86% 4.43% 5.20% 5.40% 6.02%

SG 263 1.16% 3.11% 3.94% 4.81% 5.71% 6.17% 7.22% 8.30% 8.30% 8.30% 9.62% 13.17% 13.95% 13.95% 15.67% 20.48% 22.59% 22.59% 23.84% 23.84%

All 1057 0.29% 0.77% 1.27% 1.57% 1.99% 2.20% 2.65% 3.11% 3.11% 3.35% 3.61% 4.80% 5.20% 5.34% 5.78% 7.12% 7.92% 8.56% 8.91% 9.44%
1/1/72

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 41 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63%

Aa 78 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.67% 1.67%

A 303 0.00% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34% 0.72% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% 1.50% 1.50% 2.34% 2.34% 2.80% 3.27%

Baa 431 0.00% 0.49% 0.74% 1.25% 1.51% 2.06% 2.64% 2.64% 3.27% 3.27% 3.98% 4.34% 5.09% 5.48% 6.68% 7.57% 8.48% 9.48% 11.07% 13.83%

Ba 224 0.00% 0.48% 1.45% 2.47% 3.00% 3.59% 4.81% 4.81% 4.81% 6.29% 9.48% 10.35% 10.35% 13.24% 17.53% 19.85% 19.85% 21.19% 22.62% 28.73%

B 29 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 17.85% 17.85% 17.85% 17.85% 25.32% 25.32% 25.32% 25.32% 25.32% 25.32%

Caa-C 8 37.50% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67%

IG 853 0.00% 0.36% 0.49% 0.74% 0.87% 1.13% 1.40% 1.40% 1.68% 1.68% 2.14% 2.45% 2.77% 2.93% 3.59% 4.11% 4.83% 5.21% 6.19% 7.40%

SG 261 1.92% 2.73% 3.58% 4.46% 4.91% 5.92% 6.96% 6.96% 6.96% 8.22% 12.23% 12.96% 12.96% 15.41% 19.91% 21.87% 21.87% 23.01% 24.28% 29.70%

All 1114 0.45% 0.92% 1.21% 1.60% 1.80% 2.21% 2.64% 2.64% 2.87% 3.11% 4.22% 4.60% 4.86% 5.40% 6.65% 7.39% 7.99% 8.47% 9.48% 11.22%

54 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/73

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 41 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63%

Aa 81 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 1.59% 1.59%

A 309 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 1.13% 1.13% 1.95% 1.95% 2.40% 2.85% 3.31%

Baa 441 0.46% 0.69% 1.17% 1.43% 1.94% 2.48% 2.48% 3.08% 3.08% 3.75% 4.43% 5.14% 5.87% 7.01% 7.85% 8.70% 9.65% 11.65% 13.76% 13.76%

Ba 205 0.00% 1.02% 2.08% 2.63% 3.24% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 5.99% 10.01% 10.87% 10.87% 12.77% 17.03% 20.52% 20.52% 21.82% 23.22% 30.45% 31.96%

B 27 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 15.16% 15.16% 15.16% 15.16% 22.87% 22.87% 22.87% 22.87% 22.87% 22.87% 22.87%

Caa-C 6 37.50% 37.50% 37.50% 37.50% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33% 58.33%

IG 872 0.23% 0.35% 0.59% 0.71% 0.96% 1.22% 1.22% 1.49% 1.49% 1.93% 2.37% 2.68% 2.99% 3.63% 4.13% 4.82% 5.18% 6.31% 7.29% 7.49%

SG 238 1.28% 2.16% 3.09% 3.56% 4.61% 5.69% 5.69% 5.69% 6.97% 11.74% 12.48% 12.48% 14.10% 18.61% 21.58% 21.58% 22.72% 23.97% 30.47% 31.83%

All 1110 0.46% 0.73% 1.11% 1.31% 1.71% 2.13% 2.13% 2.35% 2.58% 3.78% 4.27% 4.53% 5.04% 6.26% 7.12% 7.71% 8.17% 9.31% 11.00% 11.34%
1/1/74

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 44 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

Aa 89 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 2.74% 2.74% 2.74% 2.74%

A 307 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 1.12% 1.12% 1.93% 1.93% 2.37% 2.82% 3.27% 3.27%

Baa 431 0.00% 0.48% 0.73% 1.24% 1.79% 1.79% 2.38% 2.38% 3.05% 3.73% 4.44% 5.17% 5.56% 6.40% 7.27% 8.22% 9.72% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83%

Ba 197 0.51% 1.60% 2.17% 2.79% 4.09% 4.09% 4.09% 4.85% 8.92% 9.80% 9.80% 11.70% 17.93% 21.39% 21.39% 22.72% 25.53% 32.82% 34.35% 36.17%

B 29 7.16% 7.16% 7.16% 7.16% 7.16% 7.16% 7.16% 11.80% 22.18% 22.18% 22.18% 22.18% 29.96% 29.96% 29.96% 29.96% 29.96% 29.96% 29.96% 29.96%

Caa-C 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33%

IG 871 0.00% 0.24% 0.36% 0.60% 0.86% 0.86% 1.12% 1.12% 1.70% 2.14% 2.44% 2.75% 3.06% 3.56% 4.24% 4.60% 5.52% 6.48% 6.67% 6.67%

SG 229 1.33% 2.27% 2.76% 3.82% 4.93% 4.93% 4.93% 6.23% 11.03% 11.78% 11.78% 13.41% 19.68% 22.65% 22.65% 23.80% 26.34% 32.98% 34.38% 36.02%

All 1100 0.28% 0.65% 0.85% 1.25% 1.66% 1.66% 1.88% 2.11% 3.41% 3.90% 4.15% 4.67% 5.87% 6.72% 7.30% 7.76% 8.89% 10.55% 10.89% 11.07%
1/1/75

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 52 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.04% 2.04% 2.04% 2.04% 2.04% 2.04% 2.04% 2.04%

Aa 103 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 2.23% 2.23% 3.45% 3.45% 3.45% 3.45% 3.45%

A 321 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 0.35% 0.35% 0.73% 0.73% 1.51% 1.51% 1.93% 2.79% 3.24% 3.72% 3.72%

Baa 412 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.82% 0.82% 1.44% 1.44% 2.45% 3.14% 3.85% 4.59% 4.98% 5.83% 6.26% 7.21% 9.21% 11.30% 11.30% 11.30% 11.30%

Ba 200 1.03% 2.12% 3.27% 3.89% 3.89% 3.89% 4.59% 8.44% 9.27% 9.27% 11.09% 17.01% 20.31% 21.46% 22.73% 24.06% 29.62% 31.06% 32.74% 32.74%

B 33 6.16% 6.16% 6.16% 9.51% 9.51% 9.51% 13.44% 22.10% 22.10% 22.10% 22.10% 28.59% 28.59% 28.59% 28.59% 38.79% 48.99% 48.99% 48.99% 48.99%

Caa-C 3 0.00% 0.00% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33%

IG 888 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.36% 0.36% 0.62% 0.62% 1.17% 1.59% 1.88% 2.17% 2.47% 2.94% 3.58% 3.92% 4.97% 6.06% 6.24% 6.44% 6.44%

SG 236 1.74% 2.66% 4.12% 5.14% 5.14% 5.14% 6.33% 10.80% 11.50% 11.50% 13.04% 18.91% 21.69% 22.65% 23.71% 26.02% 32.04% 33.30% 34.75% 34.75%

All 1124 0.36% 0.55% 0.93% 1.32% 1.32% 1.53% 1.75% 2.99% 3.45% 3.69% 4.18% 5.32% 6.13% 6.81% 7.25% 8.46% 10.17% 10.49% 10.84% 10.84%

55 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/76

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 66 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69%

Aa 112 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97% 0.97% 0.97% 0.97% 0.97% 0.97% 2.06% 2.06% 3.18% 3.18% 3.18% 3.18% 3.18% 3.18%

A 367 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.61% 0.61% 0.61% 1.27% 1.27% 2.32% 2.32% 3.07% 4.24% 4.24% 4.68% 4.68% 5.16%

Baa 371 0.00% 0.29% 0.58% 0.58% 0.91% 0.91% 2.35% 3.09% 3.86% 4.65% 5.06% 5.96% 5.96% 6.98% 9.12% 10.79% 11.36% 11.36% 11.36% 11.36%

Ba 206 1.00% 2.04% 3.16% 3.16% 3.79% 4.43% 7.20% 7.96% 7.96% 9.59% 14.85% 17.80% 18.83% 19.96% 21.15% 27.30% 28.58% 30.03% 30.03% 30.03%

B 27 0.00% 0.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 8.80% 19.53% 19.53% 19.53% 19.53% 28.47% 28.47% 28.47% 28.47% 42.78% 57.08% 57.08% 57.08% 57.08% 57.08%

Caa-C 3 0.00% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33%

IG 916 0.00% 0.11% 0.23% 0.23% 0.35% 0.35% 1.00% 1.52% 1.79% 2.07% 2.50% 2.94% 3.55% 3.88% 5.04% 6.06% 6.23% 6.42% 6.42% 6.63%

SG 236 0.87% 2.25% 3.69% 3.69% 4.23% 5.36% 8.96% 9.62% 9.62% 11.06% 16.54% 19.16% 20.07% 21.07% 23.22% 29.96% 31.15% 32.50% 32.50% 32.50%

All 1152 0.18% 0.54% 0.91% 0.91% 1.11% 1.31% 2.48% 3.03% 3.26% 3.72% 4.92% 5.68% 6.33% 6.75% 8.03% 9.80% 10.10% 10.43% 10.43% 10.61%
1/1/77

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 67 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69%

Aa 119 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.91% 0.91% 0.91% 0.91% 0.91% 0.91% 1.94% 1.94% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

A 388 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 0.58% 0.58% 1.20% 1.20% 2.84% 2.84% 3.90% 5.00% 5.00% 5.42% 5.42% 5.88% 5.88%

Baa 355 0.29% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 2.06% 2.81% 3.59% 4.40% 4.82% 5.73% 5.73% 6.77% 8.40% 10.09% 10.66% 10.66% 10.66% 10.66% 10.66%

Ba 195 0.54% 1.67% 1.67% 2.27% 2.92% 5.72% 6.48% 6.48% 8.11% 13.37% 16.30% 17.32% 18.44% 19.64% 25.81% 27.09% 28.55% 28.55% 28.55% 28.55%

B 31 3.23% 6.56% 6.56% 10.63% 14.88% 24.90% 24.90% 24.90% 24.90% 33.24% 33.24% 33.24% 33.24% 46.59% 59.94% 59.94% 59.94% 59.94% 59.94% 59.94%

Caa-C 3 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33%

IG 929 0.11% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.85% 1.36% 1.62% 1.89% 2.31% 2.74% 3.63% 3.95% 5.07% 6.06% 6.23% 6.41% 6.41% 6.62% 6.62%

SG 229 1.36% 2.79% 2.79% 3.84% 4.95% 8.55% 9.21% 9.21% 10.64% 16.05% 18.63% 19.53% 20.51% 22.64% 29.34% 30.52% 31.85% 31.85% 31.85% 31.85%

All 1158 0.35% 0.72% 0.72% 0.91% 1.11% 2.25% 2.78% 3.00% 3.45% 4.63% 5.37% 6.26% 6.66% 7.91% 9.62% 9.91% 10.24% 10.24% 10.42% 10.42%
1/1/78

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 71 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.56% 1.56% 1.56% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 3.15%

Aa 131 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74%

A 380 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 0.58% 0.58% 1.21% 1.21% 2.55% 2.55% 4.00% 4.74% 4.74% 5.17% 5.17% 5.64% 5.64% 5.64%

Baa 341 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.42% 1.78% 2.55% 2.94% 3.35% 4.65% 5.10% 6.11% 7.68% 9.86% 10.41% 10.41% 10.41% 10.41% 10.41% 10.41%

Ba 187 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.77% 4.58% 6.09% 6.09% 9.33% 15.44% 17.43% 18.44% 19.55% 21.94% 28.12% 29.41% 32.29% 32.29% 32.29% 32.29% 32.29%

B 37 5.41% 5.41% 11.71% 14.98% 22.37% 22.37% 26.94% 26.94% 32.56% 38.69% 38.69% 38.69% 47.45% 60.59% 60.59% 60.59% 60.59% 60.59% 60.59% 60.59%

Caa-C 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%

IG 923 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.61% 0.98% 1.24% 1.37% 1.78% 2.34% 3.21% 3.51% 4.76% 5.73% 5.89% 6.07% 6.07% 6.27% 6.27% 6.27%

SG 227 1.82% 1.82% 2.84% 3.91% 7.37% 8.61% 9.28% 12.01% 18.68% 21.16% 22.00% 22.94% 26.01% 32.61% 33.77% 36.37% 36.37% 36.37% 36.37% 36.37%

All 1150 0.35% 0.35% 0.54% 0.74% 1.84% 2.36% 2.68% 3.23% 4.60% 5.44% 6.30% 6.69% 8.18% 9.85% 10.13% 10.60% 10.60% 10.78% 10.78% 10.78%

56 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/79

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 75 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 2.96% 2.96% 2.96% 2.96% 2.96% 2.96% 2.96% 2.96% 2.96%

Aa 132 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71%

A 376 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 1.19% 1.19% 2.52% 2.52% 3.59% 4.32% 4.32% 4.75% 4.75% 5.21% 5.21% 5.21% 5.21%

Baa 336 0.00% 0.31% 0.31% 1.70% 2.06% 2.43% 2.81% 2.81% 4.09% 4.53% 5.51% 8.12% 10.28% 10.83% 10.83% 10.83% 10.83% 10.83% 10.83% 10.83%

Ba 207 0.51% 0.51% 1.07% 3.49% 6.07% 9.49% 12.27% 18.90% 20.55% 21.40% 22.33% 25.39% 31.70% 32.79% 35.19% 35.19% 35.19% 35.19% 35.19% 35.19%

B 34 0.00% 6.45% 9.79% 17.01% 17.01% 21.62% 26.52% 38.95% 45.74% 45.74% 45.74% 56.59% 56.59%

Caa-C 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%

IG 919 0.00% 0.11% 0.11% 0.71% 1.08% 1.20% 1.33% 1.60% 2.14% 3.00% 3.30% 4.68% 5.63% 5.79% 5.96% 5.96% 6.16% 6.16% 6.16% 6.16%

SG 244 0.43% 1.34% 2.29% 5.35% 7.55% 11.06% 14.06% 21.82% 23.96% 24.70% 25.52% 29.15% 35.00% 36.03% 38.31% 38.31% 38.31% 38.31% 38.31% 38.31%

All 1163 0.09% 0.36% 0.55% 1.61% 2.31% 3.03% 3.66% 5.20% 6.00% 6.83% 7.21% 8.91% 10.52% 10.80% 11.25% 11.25% 11.42% 11.42% 11.42% 11.42%
1/1/80

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 87 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56% 2.56%

Aa 130 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80%

A 381 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 1.73% 2.04% 3.01% 3.01% 4.06% 4.78% 4.78% 5.19% 5.19% 5.64% 5.64% 5.64% 5.64% 6.67%

Baa 336 0.00% 0.00% 1.01% 1.36% 1.73% 2.46% 2.46% 3.29% 4.14% 5.53% 7.98% 10.50% 11.53% 11.53% 11.53% 11.53% 11.53% 11.53% 11.53% 11.53%

Ba 207 0.00% 0.52% 3.89% 5.09% 8.86% 12.10% 18.21% 20.48% 21.26% 23.94% 26.81% 32.98% 35.28% 37.72% 37.72% 37.72% 37.72% 39.28% 39.28% 39.28%

B 41 5.00% 7.57% 15.72% 21.54% 27.95% 31.55% 44.78% 49.38% 49.38% 49.38% 61.43% 69.15% 69.15% 69.15% 69.15% 69.15% 69.15% 69.15% 69.15% 69.15%

Caa-C 6 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 55.56% 55.56% 55.56% 55.56% 55.56%

IG 934 0.00% 0.00% 0.46% 0.82% 0.94% 1.18% 1.56% 2.23% 3.05% 3.48% 4.81% 5.87% 6.18% 6.35% 6.35% 6.54% 6.54% 6.54% 6.54% 6.98%

SG 254 1.63% 2.48% 6.55% 8.49% 12.59% 15.79% 23.19% 25.69% 26.33% 28.54% 32.53% 38.69% 40.72% 42.88% 42.88% 42.88% 42.88% 44.24% 44.24% 44.24%

All 1188 0.34% 0.52% 1.72% 2.38% 3.25% 4.05% 5.72% 6.70% 7.49% 8.20% 9.93% 11.72% 12.26% 12.69% 12.69% 12.85% 12.85% 13.02% 13.02% 13.40%
1/1/81

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 91 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.22% 1.22% 1.22% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 2.49%

Aa 135 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.83% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 3.73%

A 386 0.00% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 1.15% 1.46% 2.11% 2.11% 3.15% 3.88% 3.88% 4.29% 4.29% 4.74% 4.74% 4.74% 4.74% 5.76% 6.28%

Baa 339 0.00% 0.64% 1.96% 2.65% 3.37% 3.37% 3.77% 4.59% 5.91% 8.26% 10.18% 11.16% 11.16% 11.16% 11.16% 11.16% 11.16% 11.16% 11.91% 12.72%

Ba 240 0.00% 3.65% 5.13% 8.17% 11.87% 18.56% 21.07% 21.72% 24.73% 28.83% 35.16% 37.24% 39.44% 39.44% 39.44% 39.44% 40.85% 42.29% 42.29% 42.29%

B 46 4.40% 11.39% 16.32% 24.33% 27.25% 41.23% 41.23% 41.23% 41.23% 51.52% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58% 57.58%

Caa-C 7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.67% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33%

IG 951 0.00% 0.33% 0.78% 1.01% 1.25% 1.62% 2.14% 2.93% 3.35% 4.64% 5.52% 5.82% 5.99% 5.99% 6.17% 6.17% 6.17% 6.17% 6.81% 7.46%

SG 293 0.70% 4.79% 6.78% 10.51% 13.99% 21.89% 24.47% 25.01% 27.47% 32.23% 38.31% 40.09% 41.97% 41.97% 41.97% 41.97% 43.15% 44.36% 44.36% 44.36%

All 1244 0.16% 1.35% 2.14% 3.14% 4.07% 6.01% 6.93% 7.68% 8.46% 10.34% 12.04% 12.55% 12.96% 12.96% 13.11% 13.11% 13.28% 13.45% 13.98% 14.53%

57 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/82

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 94 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.18% 1.18% 1.18% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 2.41%

Aa 147 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.76% 2.28% 2.28% 2.28% 2.28% 2.28% 2.28% 2.28% 3.29% 3.29% 3.29% 3.29% 3.29% 4.46% 4.46%

A 395 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 1.11% 1.11% 1.74% 1.74% 3.10% 3.80% 3.80% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.69% 5.19% 8.29%

Baa 325 0.33% 0.33% 1.39% 2.13% 2.51% 3.32% 4.16% 5.50% 7.87% 9.81% 10.81% 10.81% 10.81% 10.81% 10.81% 10.81% 10.81% 12.35% 13.17% 13.17%

Ba 254 2.79% 5.36% 8.05% 11.79% 18.63% 20.84% 21.42% 24.08% 28.54% 32.63% 34.53% 36.55% 36.55% 36.55% 36.55% 37.90% 39.38% 39.38% 39.38% 42.65%

B 45 2.22% 9.10% 14.08% 16.77% 29.17% 29.17% 29.17% 29.17% 34.62% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19% 53.19%

Caa-C 14 21.43% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 58.33% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67% 66.67%

IG 961 0.21% 0.21% 0.55% 0.79% 1.27% 1.77% 2.55% 2.95% 4.36% 5.22% 5.52% 5.68% 5.68% 5.86% 5.86% 5.86% 5.86% 6.48% 7.13% 8.45%

SG 313 3.54% 7.97% 10.87% 14.28% 21.92% 24.15% 24.62% 26.80% 31.11% 36.56% 38.17% 39.86% 39.86% 39.86% 39.86% 40.97% 42.18% 42.18% 42.18% 44.87%

All 1274 1.04% 2.11% 3.06% 4.03% 6.15% 7.03% 7.73% 8.49% 10.41% 12.05% 12.54% 12.94% 12.94% 13.09% 13.09% 13.25% 13.41% 13.93% 14.47% 15.94%
1/1/83

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 101 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48% 3.48%

Aa 234 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 2.55% 2.55% 2.55% 2.55% 2.55% 2.55% 3.34% 4.17%

A 484 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 0.23% 0.97% 0.97% 2.31% 3.42% 4.00% 4.31% 4.31% 4.31% 4.31% 4.31% 4.31% 4.31% 4.72% 5.99% 6.43%

Baa 333 0.00% 0.96% 1.30% 2.72% 3.12% 3.53% 4.43% 6.79% 8.77% 8.77% 8.77% 8.77% 8.77% 8.77% 8.77% 8.77% 10.29% 11.90% 13.59% 17.05%

Ba 179 1.16% 2.42% 4.42% 10.24% 11.92% 15.52% 19.80% 23.29% 26.87% 26.87% 28.53% 28.53% 28.53% 28.53% 28.53% 31.00% 33.65% 36.42% 41.94% 44.71%

B 140 2.22% 6.86% 13.30% 23.33% 26.04% 26.96% 29.18% 36.43% 47.59% 52.47% 54.97% 54.97% 54.97% 54.97% 58.72% 58.72% 58.72% 58.72% 58.72% 58.72%

Caa-C 21 45.05% 56.04% 61.54% 61.54% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36% 74.36%

IG 1152 0.00% 0.27% 0.37% 0.85% 1.26% 2.01% 2.23% 3.50% 4.46% 4.71% 4.85% 4.85% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.35% 5.89% 7.01% 8.17%

SG 340 4.27% 7.56% 11.67% 18.96% 21.80% 23.95% 27.06% 31.85% 37.79% 39.39% 41.20% 41.20% 41.20% 41.20% 42.42% 43.86% 45.38% 46.99% 50.20% 51.86%

All 1492 0.95% 1.87% 2.82% 4.73% 5.62% 6.64% 7.37% 9.20% 10.90% 11.32% 11.67% 11.67% 11.80% 11.80% 11.94% 12.08% 12.53% 13.16% 14.45% 15.62%
1/1/84

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 87 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%

Aa 250 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.86% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 2.36% 2.36% 2.36% 2.36% 2.36% 2.36% 3.08% 3.85% 3.85%

A 506 0.00% 0.21% 0.42% 0.64% 1.57% 1.57% 3.05% 4.09% 4.62% 4.62% 4.62% 4.62% 4.62% 4.62% 4.62% 4.62% 4.99% 6.15% 6.55% 7.00%

Baa 341 0.61% 0.61% 0.93% 1.32% 1.72% 2.59% 3.53% 5.00% 5.00% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 6.27% 6.27% 7.07% 8.77% 11.44% 14.19% 14.19%

Ba 196 0.52% 2.14% 9.06% 11.63% 15.11% 18.35% 24.34% 29.64% 30.72% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 35.74% 37.75% 39.75% 43.77% 43.77%

B 159 5.17% 11.85% 20.92% 23.88% 27.01% 32.62% 40.80% 46.89% 48.79% 52.88% 52.88% 52.88% 52.88% 52.88% 56.51% 56.51% 56.51% 56.51% 56.51% 56.51%

Caa-C 11 18.18% 29.87% 29.87% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40% 47.40%

IG 1184 0.17% 0.26% 0.44% 0.93% 1.65% 1.86% 2.86% 3.67% 3.91% 4.04% 4.04% 4.19% 4.19% 4.35% 4.35% 4.52% 5.06% 6.33% 7.29% 7.49%

SG 366 3.08% 7.16% 14.85% 17.86% 21.10% 25.34% 32.03% 37.33% 38.59% 40.71% 40.71% 40.71% 40.71% 40.71% 41.85% 44.28% 45.57% 46.87% 49.49% 49.49%

All 1550 0.85% 1.87% 3.78% 4.84% 6.10% 7.12% 9.18% 10.77% 11.17% 11.61% 11.61% 11.73% 11.73% 11.86% 12.00% 12.44% 13.04% 14.27% 15.40% 15.57%

58 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/85

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 92 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33%

Aa 303 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 0.77% 0.77% 0.77% 0.77% 0.77% 0.77% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.99% 2.69% 2.69% 2.69%

A 567 0.00% 0.19% 1.19% 2.27% 2.27% 3.90% 4.87% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.49% 6.24% 6.62% 7.05% 7.05%

Baa 346 0.00% 0.98% 1.32% 1.71% 2.57% 3.02% 4.49% 5.00% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 6.31% 6.31% 8.81% 10.64% 13.45% 16.41% 16.41% 16.41%

Ba 236 0.87% 5.93% 8.65% 12.09% 17.18% 23.34% 29.11% 30.72% 31.61% 31.61% 31.61% 31.61% 31.61% 31.61% 33.17% 34.88% 38.31% 41.73% 41.73% 41.73%

B 187 7.11% 15.59% 20.38% 23.59% 29.25% 37.56% 43.09% 44.81% 48.90% 48.90% 51.45% 51.45% 51.45% 54.92% 54.92% 54.92% 54.92% 54.92% 54.92% 54.92%

Caa-C 16 6.25% 12.50% 21.25% 31.09% 31.09% 31.09% 31.09% 31.09% 31.09% 31.09% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66% 58.66%

IG 1308 0.00% 0.33% 0.86% 1.61% 1.81% 2.74% 3.51% 3.73% 3.86% 3.86% 4.00% 4.00% 4.15% 4.15% 4.65% 5.16% 6.21% 7.13% 7.33% 7.33%

SG 439 3.72% 10.31% 14.15% 17.67% 22.86% 29.63% 35.01% 36.55% 38.28% 38.28% 40.44% 40.44% 40.44% 41.34% 42.37% 43.50% 45.76% 48.05% 48.05% 48.05%

All 1747 0.94% 2.85% 4.19% 5.61% 6.92% 9.05% 10.70% 11.16% 11.56% 11.56% 12.02% 12.02% 12.14% 12.27% 12.82% 13.40% 14.57% 15.63% 15.80% 15.80%
1/1/86

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 137 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 352 0.00% 0.00% 0.64% 0.64% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.33% 1.79% 1.79% 1.79% 1.79% 1.79% 1.79% 2.38% 2.99% 2.99% 2.99% 2.99%

A 634 0.00% 0.17% 0.72% 0.91% 1.88% 2.48% 2.48% 2.48% 2.48% 2.48% 2.48% 2.48% 2.48% 2.48% 3.13% 3.81% 4.51% 4.91% 4.91% 5.33%

Baa 376 0.84% 1.13% 2.47% 3.55% 5.07% 6.31% 7.19% 7.67% 8.20% 8.20% 8.20% 8.84% 8.84% 10.23% 11.00% 12.55% 14.15% 14.15% 14.15% 14.15%

Ba 313 2.37% 6.94% 9.42% 13.69% 20.42% 26.55% 28.56% 30.74% 31.54% 31.54% 31.54% 32.56% 32.56% 32.56% 33.99% 39.83% 42.77% 42.77% 42.77% 44.40%

B 228 10.30% 14.54% 18.59% 23.55% 31.25% 38.68% 43.43% 46.13% 46.13% 48.28% 48.28% 48.28% 50.74% 56.54% 59.64% 59.64% 59.64% 59.64% 59.64% 59.64%

Caa-C 20 16.18% 22.62% 30.36% 30.36% 30.36% 30.36% 30.36% 30.36% 30.36% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79% 76.79%

IG 1499 0.21% 0.35% 1.05% 1.37% 2.30% 2.83% 3.02% 3.12% 3.22% 3.34% 3.34% 3.46% 3.46% 3.74% 4.18% 4.92% 5.70% 5.87% 5.87% 6.05%

SG 561 6.11% 10.59% 13.90% 18.35% 25.30% 31.74% 34.63% 36.91% 37.43% 39.17% 39.17% 39.85% 40.58% 42.28% 44.09% 47.86% 49.78% 49.78% 49.78% 50.87%

All 2060 1.81% 3.10% 4.47% 5.76% 7.99% 9.72% 10.40% 10.89% 11.06% 11.43% 11.43% 11.64% 11.75% 12.21% 12.81% 13.93% 14.84% 14.98% 14.98% 15.28%
1/1/87

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 157 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 366 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 1.27% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83%

A 603 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 1.13% 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 1.72% 2.04% 2.70% 3.39% 4.14% 4.14% 4.54% 4.96%

Baa 413 0.00% 0.85% 1.75% 3.34% 4.72% 6.16% 7.38% 7.38% 7.38% 7.38% 7.92% 8.50% 9.70% 10.36% 11.71% 12.41% 12.41% 12.41% 12.41% 12.41%

Ba 421 3.04% 4.99% 8.74% 15.97% 23.93% 26.58% 29.08% 30.78% 31.41% 32.10% 33.65% 33.65% 33.65% 34.80% 38.23% 44.15% 44.15% 44.15% 45.58% 47.09%

B 308 5.35% 11.67% 19.14% 29.19% 37.84% 42.92% 44.65% 44.65% 45.85% 45.85% 45.85% 47.40% 50.90% 56.36% 58.26% 60.34% 60.34% 60.34% 60.34% 60.34%

Caa-C 34 9.82% 16.76% 16.76% 50.06% 50.06% 50.06% 50.06% 50.06% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03% 75.03%

IG 1539 0.00% 0.21% 0.51% 1.36% 1.93% 2.26% 2.54% 2.54% 2.65% 2.65% 2.77% 2.89% 3.14% 3.41% 4.10% 4.68% 4.99% 4.99% 5.15% 5.33%

SG 763 4.28% 8.29% 13.40% 22.36% 30.35% 33.78% 35.91% 36.95% 38.52% 38.94% 39.90% 40.43% 41.68% 44.33% 47.04% 51.30% 51.30% 51.30% 52.17% 53.11%

All 2302 1.41% 2.84% 4.60% 7.71% 10.24% 11.31% 12.01% 12.23% 12.64% 12.72% 12.99% 13.19% 13.59% 14.24% 15.23% 16.37% 16.61% 16.61% 16.88% 17.16%

59 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/88

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 156 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 405 0.00% 0.52% 0.79% 0.79% 0.79% 0.79% 0.79% 1.15% 1.15% 1.15% 1.15% 1.15% 1.60% 2.06% 2.53% 2.53% 2.53% 2.53% 2.53% 2.53%

A 613 0.00% 0.17% 0.89% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 1.44% 2.08% 2.41% 3.15% 3.15% 3.54% 3.95% 3.95%

Baa 390 0.00% 0.28% 1.17% 2.44% 4.10% 5.59% 5.59% 5.59% 5.59% 6.09% 6.09% 6.66% 7.27% 9.17% 11.13% 11.13% 11.13% 11.13% 11.13% 11.13%

Ba 462 1.36% 6.47% 11.99% 20.12% 22.58% 25.00% 25.94% 26.46% 27.59% 28.85% 29.61% 30.38% 31.26% 35.85% 41.65% 41.65% 41.65% 42.92% 44.34% 47.62%

B 389 5.61% 12.63% 25.86% 34.48% 38.98% 42.04% 43.51% 46.11% 46.11% 47.15% 51.80% 54.56% 59.01% 60.59% 62.38% 62.38% 62.38% 62.38% 62.38% 62.38%

Caa-C 40 12.50% 15.74% 44.55% 44.55% 44.55% 44.55% 44.55% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27% 72.27%

IG 1564 0.00% 0.27% 0.84% 1.36% 1.74% 2.08% 2.08% 2.18% 2.18% 2.28% 2.28% 2.40% 2.65% 3.43% 4.10% 4.38% 4.38% 4.54% 4.70% 4.70%

SG 891 3.73% 9.60% 18.86% 26.99% 30.20% 32.78% 33.88% 35.74% 36.43% 37.56% 39.74% 41.18% 43.27% 46.59% 50.70% 50.70% 50.70% 51.49% 52.34% 54.21%

All 2455 1.34% 3.50% 6.84% 9.65% 10.82% 11.73% 11.99% 12.50% 12.65% 12.97% 13.41% 13.77% 14.35% 15.55% 16.80% 17.02% 17.02% 17.27% 17.52% 17.79%
1/1/89

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 177 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 413 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 1.26% 1.70% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 3.35%

A 648 0.00% 0.32% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 1.73% 2.04% 2.38% 2.38% 2.75% 3.13% 3.13% 4.40%

Baa 408 0.51% 1.58% 2.16% 3.96% 4.64% 4.64% 4.64% 4.64% 5.08% 5.08% 5.58% 6.12% 8.34% 10.06% 10.68% 10.68% 10.68% 10.68% 10.68% 11.47%

Ba 437 2.97% 9.84% 17.86% 20.13% 22.75% 23.18% 23.67% 24.77% 26.00% 28.17% 28.90% 30.55% 34.75% 41.02% 41.02% 41.02% 41.02% 42.20% 44.83% 46.37%

B 426 7.53% 21.01% 29.49% 34.59% 37.90% 40.18% 43.53% 44.31% 46.77% 49.56% 51.85% 55.67% 55.67% 58.74% 58.74% 58.74% 61.03% 61.03% 61.03% 66.23%

Caa-C 49 20.39% 49.07% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 77.72% 77.72% 77.72% 77.72% 77.72% 77.72% 77.72% 77.72%

IG 1646 0.25% 0.64% 0.97% 1.40% 1.55% 1.55% 1.64% 1.64% 1.74% 1.74% 1.85% 2.08% 3.02% 3.64% 3.90% 3.90% 4.04% 4.19% 4.19% 5.17%

SG 912 5.90% 16.42% 24.56% 28.02% 30.86% 32.06% 33.72% 34.65% 36.35% 38.74% 40.03% 42.40% 45.35% 50.18% 50.18% 50.18% 50.86% 51.59% 53.20% 55.88%

All 2558 2.21% 5.91% 8.68% 9.98% 10.86% 11.16% 11.61% 11.82% 12.27% 12.74% 13.08% 13.70% 14.98% 16.31% 16.51% 16.51% 16.74% 16.97% 17.22% 18.38%
1/1/90

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 199 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 461 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.65% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 2.09% 3.69%

A 675 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.55% 0.83% 1.15% 1.15% 1.49% 1.49% 1.49% 2.67% 4.28%

Baa 397 0.26% 0.83% 1.12% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.97% 2.50% 5.23% 8.05% 8.65% 8.65% 8.65% 9.40% 9.40% 10.25% 12.84%

Ba 421 3.53% 12.02% 14.51% 17.33% 17.73% 18.68% 19.20% 20.37% 22.47% 23.17% 25.50% 31.14% 35.39% 35.39% 35.39% 35.39% 36.54% 39.01% 40.36% 41.72%

B 449 13.68% 23.08% 30.25% 33.38% 35.73% 38.53% 39.86% 42.85% 45.42% 47.60% 51.50% 51.50% 54.74% 54.74% 54.74% 57.01% 57.01% 57.01% 65.07% 67.98%

Caa-C 55 45.06% 49.28% 49.28% 49.28% 49.28% 49.28% 49.28% 49.28% 49.28% 74.64% 74.64% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

IG 1732 0.06% 0.18% 0.25% 0.32% 0.32% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.50% 0.71% 1.47% 2.25% 2.49% 2.49% 2.62% 2.76% 2.76% 3.67% 5.22%

SG 925 10.43% 19.15% 23.76% 26.63% 27.93% 29.66% 30.51% 32.40% 34.65% 36.28% 38.99% 42.83% 46.43% 46.43% 46.43% 47.12% 47.85% 49.38% 52.69% 54.46%

All 2657 3.51% 6.36% 7.76% 8.61% 8.94% 9.41% 9.60% 10.01% 10.45% 10.84% 11.49% 12.76% 13.99% 14.18% 14.18% 14.39% 14.60% 14.83% 16.05% 17.55%

60 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/91

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 188 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 492 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.60% 0.96% 0.96% 0.96% 0.96% 0.96% 0.96% 1.95% 3.94% 3.94%

A 662 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.52% 0.79% 1.09% 1.09% 1.41% 1.41% 1.41% 2.54% 4.08% 4.50%

Baa 419 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.66% 1.11% 3.40% 5.78% 6.28% 6.28% 6.28% 6.91% 7.56% 8.27% 9.69% 9.69%

Ba 357 3.84% 5.15% 7.05% 7.46% 7.95% 8.50% 9.72% 11.94% 12.68% 15.20% 20.44% 24.12% 24.12% 25.30% 25.30% 26.61% 26.61% 28.08% 29.79% 29.79%

B 376 13.12% 22.20% 26.79% 29.15% 32.42% 33.75% 36.06% 38.82% 41.13% 45.35% 46.92% 52.12% 52.12% 52.12% 54.64% 54.64% 57.31% 66.46% 73.17% 73.17%

Caa-C 60 15.97% 15.97% 19.79% 24.25% 29.66% 29.66% 35.52% 35.52% 46.27% 46.27% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70%

IG 1761 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.22% 0.42% 1.12% 1.84% 2.07% 2.07% 2.19% 2.31% 2.45% 3.30% 4.74% 4.90%

SG 793 9.08% 14.04% 17.28% 18.77% 20.74% 21.59% 23.46% 25.75% 27.46% 30.34% 34.43% 38.23% 38.23% 38.93% 39.69% 40.48% 41.30% 44.84% 47.81% 47.81%

All 2554 2.78% 4.18% 5.03% 5.40% 5.91% 6.09% 6.48% 6.90% 7.27% 7.89% 9.11% 10.30% 10.48% 10.57% 10.78% 10.99% 11.21% 12.39% 13.96% 14.08%
1/1/92

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 174 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 498 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 1.50% 2.01% 2.01%

A 762 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.45% 0.92% 1.18% 1.18% 1.18% 1.18% 1.18% 2.83% 4.85% 5.58% 6.33%

Baa 429 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.39% 0.81% 2.95% 4.29% 4.76% 4.76% 5.30% 5.87% 6.47% 7.11% 8.40% 8.40% 9.08%

Ba 339 0.34% 1.09% 1.09% 1.59% 1.59% 2.76% 4.86% 6.29% 7.93% 12.99% 17.43% 17.43% 18.58% 19.83% 21.19% 21.19% 24.47% 26.23% 26.23% 26.23%

B 303 7.64% 14.07% 17.45% 21.43% 23.43% 25.78% 28.51% 30.84% 36.39% 37.90% 44.55% 44.55% 44.55% 44.55% 44.55% 44.55% 50.10% 59.29% 59.29% 59.29%

Caa-C 70 15.67% 21.56% 23.80% 26.62% 29.96% 33.46% 33.46% 40.85% 40.85% 49.30% 49.30% 49.30% 49.30% 49.30% 49.30% 66.20% 66.20% 66.20% 66.20% 66.20%

IG 1863 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.15% 0.33% 0.96% 1.44% 1.64% 1.64% 1.75% 1.87% 1.99% 2.77% 4.10% 4.53% 4.96%

SG 712 4.93% 8.55% 10.18% 12.31% 13.40% 15.21% 17.40% 19.46% 22.26% 26.18% 30.89% 30.89% 31.55% 32.28% 33.08% 33.91% 37.66% 41.83% 41.83% 41.83%

All 2575 1.33% 2.24% 2.63% 3.15% 3.37% 3.73% 4.13% 4.54% 5.12% 6.25% 7.36% 7.53% 7.62% 7.81% 8.01% 8.22% 9.34% 10.94% 11.30% 11.68%
1/1/93

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 140 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 503 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.43% 0.91% 0.91% 0.91%

A 831 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 0.59% 1.00% 1.22% 1.22% 1.22% 1.22% 1.22% 2.38% 3.87% 4.19% 4.51% 4.84%

Baa 480 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 0.25% 0.53% 0.84% 1.47% 2.15% 3.89% 4.99% 5.77% 5.77% 6.20% 6.67% 7.17% 8.75% 10.90% 11.46% 12.64% 13.26%

Ba 353 0.62% 0.62% 1.86% 2.74% 3.69% 5.39% 7.79% 8.47% 12.69% 17.12% 17.12% 17.12% 18.10% 19.18% 19.18% 21.75% 24.40% 24.40% 24.40% 24.40%

B 291 4.35% 8.38% 13.96% 15.52% 18.09% 20.30% 23.86% 31.80% 35.12% 38.71% 39.96% 39.96% 39.96% 41.73% 43.74% 48.34% 56.58% 56.58% 56.58% 56.58%

Caa-C 73 13.95% 17.57% 22.28% 25.06% 25.06% 25.06% 31.31% 31.31% 38.94% 38.94% 38.94% 47.66% 47.66% 47.66% 47.66% 47.66% 47.66% 47.66% 47.66% 47.66%

IG 1954 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.06% 0.13% 0.20% 0.35% 0.58% 1.15% 1.58% 1.85% 1.85% 1.95% 2.06% 2.17% 2.99% 4.20% 4.59% 4.98% 5.26%

SG 717 3.40% 5.43% 8.77% 10.10% 11.61% 13.41% 16.41% 19.77% 23.75% 27.56% 28.01% 28.53% 29.10% 30.33% 30.99% 34.03% 38.13% 38.13% 38.13% 38.13%

All 2671 0.89% 1.40% 2.22% 2.51% 2.88% 3.29% 3.95% 4.72% 5.86% 6.85% 7.15% 7.23% 7.40% 7.66% 7.85% 8.95% 10.49% 10.82% 11.16% 11.40%

61 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/94

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 142 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 475 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46%

A 1013 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.45% 0.76% 1.11% 1.11% 1.11% 1.11% 1.11% 2.01% 3.41% 3.67% 4.45% 4.72% 4.72%

Baa 540 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% 0.42% 0.65% 1.87% 2.38% 3.72% 4.56% 5.15% 5.15% 5.49% 5.85% 6.23% 7.93% 10.17% 10.64% 11.62% 12.14% 12.14%

Ba 397 0.00% 0.90% 1.21% 2.24% 4.31% 7.42% 10.35% 13.48% 17.41% 18.01% 18.01% 18.81% 20.64% 20.64% 23.99% 30.10% 30.10% 30.10% 31.65% 31.65%

B 381 4.19% 8.83% 12.31% 13.96% 16.88% 21.62% 27.03% 32.88% 37.69% 41.18% 43.10% 43.10% 44.29% 45.62% 48.72% 51.98% 51.98% 51.98% 51.98% 51.98%

Caa-C 85 5.31% 11.97% 15.87% 15.87% 15.87% 25.08% 25.08% 33.40% 33.40% 33.40% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50% 44.50%

IG 2170 0.00% 0.05% 0.05% 0.10% 0.16% 0.47% 0.67% 1.14% 1.49% 1.79% 1.79% 1.88% 1.96% 2.06% 2.85% 3.99% 4.32% 4.89% 5.13% 5.13%

SG 863 2.34% 5.36% 7.33% 8.55% 10.87% 14.93% 18.68% 23.01% 27.08% 28.78% 29.95% 30.40% 31.89% 32.43% 35.58% 40.32% 40.32% 40.32% 41.19% 41.19%

All 3033 0.65% 1.48% 1.99% 2.33% 2.88% 3.95% 4.83% 6.02% 7.05% 7.60% 7.79% 7.93% 8.22% 8.38% 9.47% 11.04% 11.32% 11.81% 12.11% 12.11%
1/1/95

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 145 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 562 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.39% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81% 0.81%

A 1088 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.40% 0.82% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.94% 3.00% 3.23% 3.95% 4.20% 4.20% 4.47%

Baa 556 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 1.34% 1.82% 3.31% 4.09% 4.36% 4.36% 4.68% 5.02% 5.39% 7.01% 9.13% 9.57% 10.49% 10.98% 10.98% 10.98%

Ba 409 0.27% 0.55% 1.76% 3.56% 7.05% 9.58% 12.71% 15.14% 16.69% 16.69% 17.41% 18.96% 18.96% 21.93% 29.67% 29.67% 29.67% 31.08% 31.08% 31.08%

B 499 3.83% 6.38% 8.82% 12.21% 16.57% 22.05% 30.82% 38.35% 42.72% 45.09% 45.80% 46.58% 47.43% 49.34% 52.32% 52.32% 52.32% 52.32% 52.32% 52.32%

Caa-C 96 11.55% 17.32% 17.32% 21.37% 31.47% 41.26% 53.74% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35% 60.35%

IG 2351 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.32% 0.50% 0.98% 1.35% 1.56% 1.56% 1.63% 1.71% 1.80% 2.53% 3.58% 3.89% 4.42% 4.64% 4.64% 4.75%

SG 1004 3.07% 4.93% 6.65% 9.42% 13.66% 17.86% 23.90% 28.81% 31.65% 32.82% 33.50% 34.62% 35.02% 37.40% 42.50% 42.50% 42.50% 43.19% 43.19% 43.19%

All 3355 0.89% 1.42% 1.89% 2.62% 3.82% 4.88% 6.55% 7.89% 8.63% 8.86% 9.04% 9.30% 9.44% 10.41% 12.05% 12.30% 12.74% 13.02% 13.02% 13.12%
1/1/96

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 147 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 607 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.36% 0.73% 0.73% 0.73% 0.73% 0.73% 0.73%

A 1161 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.36% 0.61% 0.89% 0.89% 0.89% 0.89% 0.89% 1.63% 2.77% 2.98% 3.62% 3.84% 3.84% 4.08% 4.08%

Baa 654 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.72% 1.29% 2.68% 3.30% 3.73% 3.97% 4.22% 4.77% 4.77% 6.37% 8.06% 8.42% 9.53% 10.31% 10.31% 10.31% 11.16%

Ba 466 0.00% 0.71% 2.11% 5.67% 7.29% 10.40% 13.09% 14.76% 14.76% 15.89% 17.11% 17.80% 20.09% 25.11% 25.11% 25.11% 26.12% 26.12% 26.12% 26.12%

B 569 1.51% 4.04% 8.83% 12.16% 18.16% 25.79% 33.40% 37.45% 39.94% 40.55% 41.19% 41.92% 44.47% 49.76% 49.76% 49.76% 49.76% 49.76% 49.76% 52.48%

Caa-C 110 9.90% 14.59% 18.84% 32.36% 41.28% 51.89% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90% 55.90%

IG 2569 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.19% 0.39% 0.86% 1.14% 1.38% 1.44% 1.51% 1.65% 1.65% 2.37% 3.38% 3.65% 4.20% 4.49% 4.49% 4.60% 4.81%

SG 1145 1.65% 3.60% 6.89% 11.01% 15.08% 20.62% 25.67% 28.37% 29.55% 30.38% 31.29% 31.96% 34.26% 39.16% 39.16% 39.16% 39.69% 39.69% 39.69% 40.91%

All 3714 0.50% 1.07% 2.02% 3.21% 4.37% 6.07% 7.46% 8.23% 8.52% 8.74% 9.02% 9.14% 10.11% 11.73% 11.95% 12.41% 12.73% 12.73% 12.81% 13.16%

62 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/97

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 143 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 686 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63%

A 1185 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.32% 0.54% 1.01% 1.01% 1.01% 1.01% 1.01% 1.99% 3.00% 3.18% 3.94% 4.33% 5.15% 5.36% 5.36% 5.36%

Baa 825 0.00% 0.13% 0.54% 0.98% 2.04% 2.68% 3.02% 3.21% 3.61% 4.03% 4.03% 5.04% 6.91% 7.19% 8.06% 9.26% 9.26% 9.26% 10.23% 10.23%

Ba 579 0.18% 1.20% 4.74% 7.65% 9.95% 13.92% 15.46% 15.46% 16.31% 17.20% 17.70% 19.33% 22.82% 22.82% 22.82% 23.51% 23.51% 24.26% 26.63% 26.63%

B 688 2.00% 6.37% 10.33% 15.91% 25.48% 31.84% 35.71% 38.23% 38.65% 40.12% 41.22% 44.35% 50.89% 50.89% 50.89% 50.89% 51.78% 51.78% 51.78% 52.72%

Caa-C 136 9.09% 15.96% 27.74% 41.67% 50.60% 53.34% 53.34% 53.34% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67% 62.67%

IG 2839 0.00% 0.04% 0.16% 0.33% 0.73% 1.02% 1.32% 1.37% 1.49% 1.61% 1.61% 2.30% 3.32% 3.55% 4.11% 4.61% 4.95% 5.04% 5.31% 5.31%

SG 1403 1.89% 5.06% 9.41% 14.29% 20.42% 25.41% 27.97% 29.17% 29.96% 31.07% 31.81% 34.02% 38.69% 38.69% 38.69% 39.05% 39.42% 39.80% 41.01% 41.42%

All 4242 0.61% 1.62% 2.99% 4.48% 6.44% 7.97% 8.83% 9.15% 9.41% 9.74% 9.89% 10.87% 12.56% 12.74% 13.18% 13.64% 13.97% 14.11% 14.54% 14.62%
1/1/98

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 130 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 738 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.52% 0.82% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.51%

A 1183 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.29% 0.50% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 1.86% 2.97% 3.15% 3.69% 4.25% 5.21% 5.41% 5.41% 5.41% 5.85%

Baa 981 0.11% 0.44% 0.78% 1.75% 2.66% 2.94% 3.23% 3.55% 3.90% 3.90% 4.74% 6.53% 7.00% 7.73% 8.49% 8.76% 8.76% 9.59% 9.59% 9.59%

Ba 695 0.76% 3.23% 6.13% 9.00% 12.58% 14.44% 14.70% 15.33% 15.67% 16.06% 17.69% 21.61% 21.61% 21.61% 22.62% 22.62% 23.16% 24.85% 26.02% 26.02%

B 930 3.69% 9.46% 16.64% 26.28% 32.17% 36.94% 40.50% 41.32% 43.43% 45.16% 47.12% 50.76% 50.76% 50.76% 50.76% 51.28% 51.28% 51.85% 51.85% 52.45%

Caa-C 155 8.86% 26.50% 37.57% 51.14% 56.89% 61.06% 64.30% 67.55% 67.55% 67.55% 83.77% 83.77% 83.77%

IG 3032 0.03% 0.14% 0.29% 0.69% 1.07% 1.34% 1.49% 1.59% 1.70% 1.70% 2.34% 3.40% 3.68% 4.20% 4.66% 5.13% 5.21% 5.46% 5.46% 5.73%

SG 1780 2.98% 8.36% 14.08% 21.16% 26.04% 29.45% 31.50% 32.31% 33.51% 34.52% 36.41% 39.98% 39.98% 39.98% 40.46% 40.70% 40.95% 42.02% 42.57% 42.85%

All 4812 1.11% 3.07% 5.12% 7.75% 9.59% 10.83% 11.53% 11.82% 12.22% 12.47% 13.39% 15.03% 15.23% 15.61% 16.06% 16.47% 16.58% 17.02% 17.14% 17.41%
1/1/99

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 114 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 738 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.47% 1.03% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.66% 1.66%

A 1226 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.28% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 1.68% 2.85% 2.85% 3.51% 4.03% 4.93% 5.11% 5.11% 5.11% 5.53% 5.53%

Baa 1124 0.09% 0.48% 1.29% 2.40% 2.86% 3.11% 3.39% 3.68% 3.68% 4.75% 6.84% 7.24% 7.87% 8.73% 8.96% 9.20% 9.93% 9.93% 9.93% 9.93%

Ba 689 1.38% 3.39% 5.85% 8.95% 10.90% 11.14% 11.72% 12.33% 12.67% 14.87% 18.37% 18.81% 18.81% 19.76% 19.76% 19.76% 20.28% 21.90% 21.90% 21.90%

B 1078 5.04% 13.64% 23.23% 31.58% 36.15% 40.01% 41.49% 43.51% 45.28% 47.38% 52.20% 52.20% 52.63% 52.63% 53.10% 53.10% 55.33% 55.89% 57.66% 58.32%

Caa-C 315 15.04% 23.96% 37.62% 41.73% 46.47% 48.08% 48.99% 48.99% 50.24% 51.66% 51.66% 51.66% 53.39% 53.39% 53.39% 53.39% 53.39% 53.39% 53.39% 53.39%

IG 3202 0.03% 0.17% 0.53% 0.95% 1.28% 1.41% 1.50% 1.60% 1.60% 2.35% 3.55% 3.81% 4.34% 4.83% 5.26% 5.41% 5.64% 5.64% 5.89% 5.89%

SG 2082 5.33% 11.77% 19.46% 25.39% 28.98% 31.21% 32.27% 33.47% 34.54% 36.52% 40.06% 40.24% 40.61% 41.01% 41.21% 41.21% 42.32% 43.23% 43.95% 44.21%

All 5284 2.09% 4.61% 7.71% 10.13% 11.56% 12.37% 12.75% 13.16% 13.45% 14.50% 16.28% 16.50% 16.98% 17.42% 17.78% 17.89% 18.33% 18.56% 18.91% 18.97%

63 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/00

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 119 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 733 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 1.14% 1.14% 1.14%

A 1255 0.00% 0.17% 0.35% 0.73% 0.84% 0.84% 0.84% 0.84% 2.04% 3.29% 3.29% 3.91% 4.57% 5.41% 5.59% 5.77% 5.77% 6.15% 6.15% 6.15%

Baa 1199 0.35% 0.80% 1.79% 2.42% 2.64% 3.01% 3.27% 3.27% 3.88% 6.04% 6.39% 6.95% 7.52% 7.73% 7.93% 8.36% 8.36% 8.36% 8.36% 8.36%

Ba 653 1.44% 3.32% 5.76% 7.42% 7.42% 8.21% 8.50% 8.83% 11.67% 16.52% 16.93% 16.93% 17.85% 17.85% 17.85% 18.86% 20.43% 20.43% 20.43% 21.01%

B 1151 5.64% 15.57% 24.22% 29.13% 32.76% 34.59% 37.69% 39.50% 41.97% 47.90% 48.26% 48.65% 48.65% 49.10% 49.57% 51.65% 52.71% 54.40% 55.04% 57.77%

Caa-C 328 17.74% 36.17% 45.92% 53.58% 58.15% 59.25% 59.25% 59.25% 59.25% 61.03% 61.03% 63.08% 63.08% 63.08% 63.08% 63.08% 63.08% 63.08% 63.08% 63.08%

IG 3306 0.13% 0.35% 0.78% 1.16% 1.28% 1.41% 1.50% 1.50% 2.19% 3.41% 3.65% 4.15% 4.60% 5.01% 5.15% 5.36% 5.36% 5.59% 5.59% 5.59%

SG 2132 6.15% 14.72% 21.46% 25.46% 27.84% 29.18% 30.82% 31.81% 34.11% 38.96% 39.29% 39.65% 40.03% 40.22% 40.42% 41.71% 42.81% 43.51% 43.76% 45.03%

All 5438 2.46% 5.88% 8.65% 10.29% 11.17% 11.66% 12.20% 12.47% 13.55% 15.67% 15.93% 16.37% 16.79% 17.13% 17.28% 17.74% 18.01% 18.34% 18.40% 18.69%
1/1/01

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 119 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 761 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 0.74% 0.74% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.34% 1.34% 1.34% 1.34%

A 1304 0.15% 0.41% 0.67% 0.67% 0.67% 0.67% 0.67% 2.01% 3.16% 3.29% 3.86% 4.46% 5.23% 5.71% 5.87% 5.87% 6.22% 6.22% 6.22% 6.79%

Baa 1174 0.18% 1.22% 1.83% 2.26% 2.61% 2.86% 2.86% 3.30% 5.33% 5.50% 6.02% 6.75% 6.95% 6.95% 7.36% 7.57% 7.57% 7.80% 7.80% 8.78%

Ba 617 1.17% 3.20% 5.02% 5.02% 6.06% 6.36% 6.70% 9.62% 15.03% 15.46% 15.46% 16.41% 16.41% 16.41% 17.46% 18.53% 19.09% 19.09% 19.68% 20.29%

B 1091 8.72% 18.56% 23.95% 27.58% 29.40% 32.71% 34.53% 37.44% 45.36% 45.74% 46.16% 46.16% 46.63% 47.15% 49.49% 51.31% 53.26% 54.00% 56.34% 57.97%

Caa-C 326 28.27% 39.65% 53.06% 59.13% 61.15% 61.15% 61.15% 61.15% 62.83% 62.83% 64.79% 64.79% 64.79% 64.79% 64.79% 64.79% 64.79% 64.79% 66.99% 69.19%

IG 3358 0.12% 0.59% 0.90% 1.05% 1.17% 1.26% 1.26% 1.94% 3.07% 3.30% 3.76% 4.24% 4.68% 4.87% 5.07% 5.14% 5.36% 5.43% 5.43% 5.97%

SG 2034 9.31% 16.79% 21.77% 24.29% 25.79% 27.57% 28.58% 31.10% 37.08% 37.43% 37.80% 38.20% 38.40% 38.62% 40.00% 41.18% 42.17% 42.43% 43.79% 44.92%

All 5392 3.53% 6.52% 8.42% 9.33% 9.85% 10.39% 10.65% 11.76% 14.01% 14.25% 14.68% 15.13% 15.50% 15.69% 16.14% 16.44% 16.82% 16.93% 17.21% 17.86%
1/1/02

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 128 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 773 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.46% 0.69% 0.69% 0.95% 0.95% 0.95% 0.95% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25%

A 1308 0.16% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 1.57% 2.52% 2.77% 3.30% 3.99% 4.70% 5.15% 5.30% 5.30% 5.63% 5.63% 5.63% 5.98% 5.98%

Baa 1258 0.84% 1.28% 1.37% 1.58% 1.69% 1.69% 2.07% 3.88% 3.88% 4.03% 4.69% 4.86% 4.86% 5.23% 5.42% 5.42% 5.62% 5.83% 6.49% 6.49%

Ba 598 1.77% 4.06% 4.93% 5.88% 6.70% 7.02% 9.79% 14.92% 15.31% 15.75% 17.10% 17.10% 17.10% 18.57% 19.08% 19.61% 19.61% 20.18% 21.95% 21.95%

B 895 4.57% 9.41% 12.25% 14.60% 17.88% 19.53% 23.80% 33.58% 35.15% 36.47% 36.47% 36.96% 37.51% 39.35% 41.90% 44.64% 45.41% 47.82% 50.32% 50.32%

Caa-C 370 26.40% 40.96% 48.67% 50.00% 52.75% 53.83% 55.32% 59.84% 59.84% 61.67% 61.67% 61.67% 61.67% 61.67% 61.67% 61.67% 61.67% 64.06% 66.46% 66.46%

IG 3467 0.37% 0.59% 0.62% 0.70% 0.74% 0.74% 1.36% 2.35% 2.56% 2.87% 3.37% 3.77% 3.95% 4.13% 4.20% 4.39% 4.46% 4.53% 4.89% 4.89%

SG 1863 7.79% 13.25% 16.03% 17.67% 19.82% 20.80% 24.00% 30.93% 31.78% 32.71% 33.31% 33.51% 33.73% 35.11% 36.30% 37.55% 37.82% 39.21% 41.22% 41.22%

All 5330 2.92% 4.85% 5.72% 6.24% 6.83% 7.07% 8.28% 10.61% 10.96% 11.40% 11.91% 12.26% 12.44% 12.87% 13.16% 13.56% 13.67% 14.00% 14.67% 14.67%

64 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/03

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 125 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 704 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 0.70% 0.70% 0.96% 0.96% 0.96% 0.96% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27%

A 1299 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.20% 2.00% 2.37% 3.01% 3.54% 4.23% 4.66% 4.81% 4.81% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.48% 5.48% 5.48%

Baa 1218 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.30% 0.41% 0.53% 1.68% 1.68% 1.68% 2.27% 2.43% 2.43% 2.77% 2.94% 2.94% 3.13% 3.32% 3.93% 3.93% 4.36%

Ba 584 0.89% 1.29% 1.95% 2.44% 2.74% 5.58% 10.73% 11.48% 11.48% 12.78% 12.78% 12.78% 13.74% 14.71% 15.23% 15.23% 15.78% 17.50% 17.50% 18.74%

B 877 2.56% 4.21% 6.40% 9.15% 10.52% 14.98% 24.43% 26.03% 27.11% 28.68% 29.48% 29.92% 31.85% 33.85% 35.95% 37.66% 40.64% 42.51% 42.51% 45.80%

Caa-C 366 20.45% 31.59% 34.24% 37.86% 38.68% 39.77% 48.70% 48.70% 53.42% 53.42% 53.42% 53.42% 53.42% 53.42% 53.42% 53.42% 56.33% 59.24% 59.24% 59.24%

IG 3346 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.11% 0.15% 0.66% 1.39% 1.63% 1.93% 2.35% 2.74% 2.91% 3.09% 3.15% 3.34% 3.40% 3.47% 3.82% 3.82% 3.97%

SG 1827 5.32% 8.05% 9.74% 11.71% 12.58% 15.90% 23.38% 24.43% 25.43% 26.69% 27.05% 27.25% 28.50% 29.80% 30.94% 31.67% 33.41% 35.23% 35.23% 37.18%

All 5173 1.83% 2.72% 3.28% 3.86% 4.12% 5.32% 7.70% 8.14% 8.59% 9.20% 9.58% 9.75% 10.16% 10.49% 10.88% 11.08% 11.50% 12.14% 12.14% 12.66%
1/1/04

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Aaa 144 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 668 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% 0.66% 0.89% 0.89% 1.16% 1.16% 1.16% 1.16% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47%

A 1304 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.12% 1.55% 1.89% 2.49% 2.86% 3.65% 4.05% 4.19% 4.19% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.84%

Baa 1284 0.00% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.28% 1.89% 1.89% 1.89% 2.55% 2.83% 2.83% 3.13% 3.28% 3.28% 3.45% 3.62% 4.34% 4.34% 4.91% 5.11%

Ba 562 0.38% 0.58% 1.30% 1.85% 4.60% 9.99% 10.35% 10.35% 11.21% 11.21% 11.21% 12.68% 13.68% 14.22% 14.22% 15.35% 17.13% 17.13% 18.37% 18.37%

B 957 0.68% 1.97% 3.95% 4.82% 8.82% 19.24% 20.51% 21.36% 22.95% 23.60% 23.96% 25.18% 26.48% 29.25% 30.72% 32.74% 34.33% 34.33% 38.35% 38.35%

Caa-C 328 10.90% 17.15% 21.87% 24.80% 28.34% 42.17% 43.24% 50.07% 52.93% 52.93% 52.93% 52.93% 55.07% 55.07% 55.07% 58.06% 61.06% 61.06% 61.06% 61.06%

IG 3400 0.00% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.58% 1.34% 1.56% 1.84% 2.23% 2.70% 2.86% 3.02% 3.08% 3.26% 3.32% 3.38% 3.70% 3.70% 3.91% 4.06%

SG 1847 2.30% 4.00% 5.93% 6.95% 10.41% 19.43% 20.34% 21.52% 22.95% 23.28% 23.46% 24.63% 25.85% 27.38% 28.07% 29.73% 31.46% 31.46% 33.86% 33.86%

All 5247 0.78% 1.37% 1.95% 2.24% 3.52% 6.41% 6.80% 7.30% 7.93% 8.36% 8.52% 8.90% 9.21% 9.67% 9.86% 10.25% 10.86% 10.86% 11.51% 11.62%
1/1/05

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Aaa 135 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 683 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.18% 0.82% 1.03% 1.03% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.55% 1.55% 1.55% 1.55% 1.55% 1.55% 1.55%

A 1355 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.75% 1.24% 1.56% 2.11% 2.47% 3.09% 3.47% 3.60% 3.60% 3.89% 3.89% 3.89% 4.05% 4.05% 4.05% 4.22%

Baa 1305 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.66% 2.06% 2.06% 2.06% 2.67% 3.06% 3.06% 3.34% 3.48% 3.48% 3.64% 3.96% 4.47% 4.47% 5.20% 5.39%

Ba 555 0.00% 0.65% 0.91% 3.68% 8.98% 9.61% 9.61% 10.74% 10.74% 10.74% 12.45% 12.89% 13.82% 13.82% 14.82% 16.91% 16.91% 18.60% 18.60%

B 1040 0.71% 2.44% 3.62% 8.35% 19.74% 20.97% 21.92% 23.53% 24.65% 24.97% 26.39% 28.28% 30.76% 32.11% 33.96% 36.35% 36.35% 41.64% 41.64%

Caa-C 366 7.27% 11.73% 14.80% 22.23% 38.81% 41.85% 50.53% 52.83% 54.11% 55.69% 57.46% 59.40% 59.40% 59.40% 62.10% 64.81% 64.81% 64.81% 64.81%

IG 3478 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.57% 1.28% 1.53% 1.79% 2.15% 2.59% 2.74% 2.89% 2.94% 3.11% 3.17% 3.29% 3.53% 3.53% 3.80% 3.93%

SG 1961 1.72% 3.61% 4.82% 9.33% 19.51% 20.78% 22.29% 23.78% 24.48% 24.79% 26.30% 27.54% 29.07% 29.68% 31.16% 33.35% 33.35% 36.45% 36.45%

All 5439 0.64% 1.26% 1.63% 3.29% 6.70% 7.23% 7.81% 8.46% 8.95% 9.14% 9.61% 9.93% 10.40% 10.58% 10.99% 11.65% 11.65% 12.51% 12.61%

65 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/06

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Aaa 131 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 702 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.17% 0.76% 0.96% 0.96% 1.18% 1.41% 1.41% 1.41% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67%

A 1413 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 1.04% 1.33% 1.83% 2.15% 2.94% 3.17% 3.29% 3.29% 3.56% 3.56% 3.56% 3.70% 3.70% 4.01% 4.17%

Baa 1288 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 1.57% 1.57% 1.57% 2.05% 2.42% 2.42% 2.55% 2.70% 2.70% 2.85% 3.32% 3.81% 3.81% 4.86% 5.05%

Ba 562 0.20% 0.20% 3.12% 9.49% 9.49% 9.49% 10.45% 10.79% 11.15% 13.36% 13.74% 15.38% 15.79% 16.69% 19.02% 19.02% 22.17% 22.17%

B 1101 1.09% 2.05% 8.30% 18.73% 21.06% 22.68% 24.96% 25.95% 26.50% 28.96% 31.68% 34.64% 36.24% 38.71% 41.71% 42.18% 46.60% 46.60%

Caa-C 400 5.50% 9.65% 18.75% 37.60% 42.58% 48.53% 50.09% 52.04% 53.24% 54.57% 59.27% 59.27% 59.27% 61.67% 64.22% 64.22% 64.22% 64.22%

IG 3534 0.00% 0.00% 0.51% 1.02% 1.25% 1.49% 1.79% 2.28% 2.42% 2.51% 2.57% 2.72% 2.78% 2.95% 3.18% 3.18% 3.67% 3.80%

SG 2063 1.67% 2.92% 8.64% 19.24% 21.24% 22.90% 24.59% 25.44% 25.97% 28.13% 29.98% 31.99% 32.87% 34.55% 37.09% 37.30% 40.60% 40.60%

All 5597 0.59% 1.00% 3.15% 6.83% 7.60% 8.23% 8.91% 9.49% 9.73% 10.33% 10.82% 11.41% 11.65% 12.16% 12.90% 12.95% 14.03% 14.13%
1/1/07

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Aaa 141 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 751 0.00% 0.15% 0.15% 0.67% 0.85% 0.85% 1.05% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.48% 1.48% 1.48% 1.48% 1.48% 1.48% 1.48%

A 1405 0.00% 0.71% 1.05% 1.32% 1.79% 2.19% 3.14% 3.35% 3.47% 3.47% 3.72% 3.72% 3.72% 3.86% 3.86% 4.58% 4.73%

Baa 1284 0.00% 0.70% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74% 2.19% 2.54% 2.54% 2.67% 2.80% 2.94% 3.08% 3.52% 4.14% 4.14% 4.81% 4.98%

Ba 626 0.00% 1.79% 7.25% 7.96% 7.96% 9.30% 10.13% 10.43% 12.65% 13.96% 15.39% 16.14% 18.15% 20.21% 20.21% 23.01% 23.01%

B 1130 0.10% 6.52% 17.92% 20.87% 23.05% 25.76% 27.09% 28.09% 30.85% 33.90% 35.93% 37.40% 38.94% 41.81% 42.27% 47.94% 47.94%

Caa-C 442 4.78% 15.88% 34.57% 39.19% 43.12% 45.68% 48.83% 49.76% 50.83% 57.92% 60.92% 60.92% 62.88% 65.20% 65.20% 65.20% 65.20%

IG 3581 0.00% 0.56% 1.07% 1.28% 1.50% 1.82% 2.36% 2.49% 2.58% 2.63% 2.82% 2.87% 3.03% 3.30% 3.30% 3.82% 3.94%

SG 2198 0.99% 6.93% 17.95% 20.51% 22.20% 24.36% 25.70% 26.39% 28.65% 31.21% 32.98% 33.93% 35.62% 37.93% 38.12% 41.77% 41.77%

All 5779 0.36% 2.81% 6.99% 7.99% 8.67% 9.52% 10.28% 10.56% 11.21% 11.88% 12.46% 12.72% 13.22% 13.95% 13.99% 15.16% 15.25%
1/1/08

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Aaa 176 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 835 0.50% 0.50% 0.93% 1.39% 1.55% 1.88% 2.22% 2.40% 2.40% 2.79% 2.79% 2.79% 2.79% 2.79% 2.79% 2.79%

A 1321 0.40% 0.91% 1.18% 1.46% 1.97% 3.06% 3.17% 3.17% 3.17% 3.30% 3.30% 3.44% 3.58% 3.58% 4.33% 4.64%

Baa 1256 1.01% 1.82% 1.82% 1.82% 2.03% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.38% 2.51% 2.78% 3.05% 3.63% 3.63% 4.25% 4.25%

Ba 633 2.33% 7.35% 7.55% 7.55% 8.69% 9.40% 9.91% 12.08% 13.50% 15.05% 15.69% 17.07% 18.87% 18.87% 22.78% 22.78%

B 1009 4.04% 14.61% 17.65% 19.75% 22.15% 23.23% 24.23% 27.51% 29.99% 32.42% 33.96% 36.45% 40.43% 40.89% 46.43% 46.43%

Caa-C 663 10.70% 28.92% 34.23% 37.59% 40.96% 43.91% 46.57% 49.33% 55.03% 56.40% 57.22% 59.05% 62.20% 63.46% 63.46% 66.50%

IG 3588 0.62% 1.09% 1.29% 1.50% 1.80% 2.30% 2.42% 2.47% 2.55% 2.74% 2.83% 2.98% 3.24% 3.24% 3.73% 3.84%

SG 2305 5.47% 16.66% 19.53% 21.28% 23.47% 24.82% 25.95% 28.58% 31.09% 32.85% 33.80% 35.57% 38.24% 38.58% 42.28% 42.67%

All 5893 2.50% 7.12% 8.32% 9.05% 9.96% 10.73% 11.14% 11.91% 12.65% 13.24% 13.55% 14.08% 14.90% 14.98% 16.15% 16.32%

66 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/09

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Aaa 150 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 750 0.00% 0.15% 0.46% 0.63% 0.97% 1.15% 1.52% 1.52% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93%

A 1310 0.24% 0.49% 0.76% 1.14% 2.16% 2.37% 2.37% 2.37% 2.50% 2.50% 2.63% 2.63% 2.63% 3.35% 3.65%

Baa 1243 0.92% 0.92% 1.21% 1.31% 1.41% 1.52% 1.52% 1.75% 1.87% 2.12% 2.37% 3.32% 3.47% 4.20% 4.20%

Ba 601 1.77% 2.16% 2.16% 3.52% 4.23% 5.00% 6.64% 7.79% 9.34% 10.29% 11.65% 13.08% 13.08% 16.51% 16.97%

B 856 6.80% 8.00% 9.55% 11.64% 12.53% 13.82% 18.39% 20.94% 23.49% 24.73% 27.44% 31.75% 32.25% 40.66% 40.66%

Caa-C 763 26.39% 33.72% 37.17% 41.08% 43.99% 46.42% 48.51% 53.92% 55.48% 56.08% 57.37% 60.19% 61.07% 61.07% 63.07%

IG 3453 0.42% 0.55% 0.82% 1.04% 1.53% 1.69% 1.77% 1.86% 2.04% 2.13% 2.27% 2.62% 2.67% 3.21% 3.32%

SG 2220 12.11% 15.13% 16.78% 19.14% 20.50% 21.87% 24.59% 27.12% 28.93% 29.84% 31.52% 34.07% 34.40% 38.61% 39.17%

All 5673 4.98% 6.19% 6.94% 7.86% 8.62% 9.14% 9.97% 10.72% 11.33% 11.63% 12.15% 13.03% 13.14% 14.48% 14.69%
1/1/10

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Aaa 99 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 591 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23%

A 1253 0.17% 0.51% 0.98% 1.76% 2.07% 2.29% 2.29% 2.53% 2.53% 2.65% 2.65% 2.65% 2.79% 3.07%

Baa 1352 0.07% 0.31% 0.40% 0.84% 1.03% 1.03% 1.33% 1.44% 1.87% 2.10% 2.82% 2.82% 3.87% 3.87%

Ba 595 0.00% 0.00% 0.84% 1.71% 2.19% 3.95% 5.01% 6.45% 7.33% 8.59% 10.24% 10.60% 14.91% 15.33%

B 818 0.39% 1.85% 3.78% 4.61% 6.79% 11.36% 14.08% 16.19% 17.38% 19.06% 22.64% 23.11% 31.28% 31.83%

Caa-C 728 8.63% 13.24% 18.99% 23.19% 26.35% 29.37% 34.65% 37.11% 38.55% 41.18% 45.69% 46.34% 47.01% 47.75%

IG 3295 0.09% 0.32% 0.53% 1.01% 1.20% 1.28% 1.40% 1.58% 1.76% 1.90% 2.19% 2.19% 2.66% 2.77%

SG 2141 3.07% 5.11% 7.92% 9.76% 11.61% 14.66% 17.40% 19.30% 20.39% 22.10% 25.02% 25.47% 30.03% 30.55%

All 5436 1.24% 2.13% 3.24% 4.16% 4.87% 5.84% 6.72% 7.37% 7.79% 8.34% 9.30% 9.41% 10.84% 11.04%
1/1/11

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Aaa 87 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 552 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.43% 0.43% 0.43% 0.43% 0.43% 0.43% 0.43%

A 1247 0.00% 0.09% 0.74% 0.84% 0.94% 0.94% 1.17% 1.17% 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% 1.42% 1.82%

Baa 1442 0.36% 0.43% 0.91% 1.25% 1.25% 1.61% 1.71% 2.10% 2.31% 3.08% 3.08% 4.16% 4.16%

Ba 643 0.16% 1.39% 2.14% 2.95% 4.67% 6.04% 7.28% 8.30% 9.43% 10.91% 11.23% 15.46% 15.83%

B 962 0.34% 1.89% 3.21% 5.29% 9.75% 13.45% 15.41% 16.53% 18.08% 22.39% 23.45% 30.90% 32.09%

Caa-C 739 6.22% 13.53% 18.35% 22.24% 26.37% 31.84% 34.36% 36.40% 39.23% 44.92% 45.67% 47.26% 49.11%

IG 3328 0.19% 0.25% 0.70% 0.88% 0.92% 1.08% 1.24% 1.41% 1.54% 1.87% 1.87% 2.37% 2.52%

SG 2344 2.08% 5.22% 7.30% 9.42% 12.78% 15.98% 17.76% 19.00% 20.60% 23.92% 24.60% 29.48% 30.40%

All 5672 0.94% 2.19% 3.24% 4.09% 5.22% 6.33% 6.98% 7.46% 8.00% 9.13% 9.31% 10.90% 11.24%

67 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/12

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Aaa 85 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 444 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

A 1213 0.00% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.20% 0.20% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.44% 0.83%

Baa 1483 0.07% 0.43% 0.51% 0.51% 0.76% 0.93% 1.29% 1.48% 2.38% 2.38% 3.37% 3.37%

Ba 718 0.14% 1.67% 2.17% 3.45% 5.18% 6.66% 7.33% 8.30% 9.58% 9.85% 14.43% 14.75%

B 998 0.54% 1.66% 3.95% 7.94% 11.51% 14.16% 15.08% 16.64% 21.15% 22.06% 28.72% 30.09%

Caa-C 830 8.01% 13.29% 17.65% 22.95% 28.55% 32.15% 35.73% 37.97% 45.00% 45.67% 47.87% 50.43%

IG 3225 0.03% 0.23% 0.30% 0.30% 0.42% 0.54% 0.70% 0.83% 1.23% 1.23% 1.71% 1.86%

SG 2546 2.81% 5.31% 7.63% 11.01% 14.42% 16.83% 18.20% 19.64% 23.19% 23.78% 28.61% 29.67%

All 5771 1.24% 2.40% 3.35% 4.60% 5.88% 6.76% 7.31% 7.84% 9.16% 9.33% 10.99% 11.39%
1/1/13

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Aaa 62 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 303 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1181 0.09% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.28% 0.39% 0.39% 0.51% 0.87%

Baa 1673 0.12% 0.18% 0.18% 0.32% 0.40% 0.70% 0.86% 1.54% 1.54% 2.58% 2.58%

Ba 694 0.60% 1.09% 1.83% 3.36% 5.47% 5.70% 6.70% 8.02% 8.30% 12.32% 12.65%

B 1059 1.01% 2.63% 7.05% 11.36% 13.32% 14.60% 15.63% 19.73% 20.75% 26.40% 28.12%

Caa-C 935 6.29% 10.37% 17.27% 23.07% 27.66% 31.73% 34.71% 43.10% 43.63% 47.74% 49.08%

IG 3219 0.09% 0.16% 0.16% 0.23% 0.27% 0.42% 0.55% 0.93% 0.93% 1.47% 1.62%

SG 2688 2.69% 4.81% 8.91% 12.79% 15.46% 17.03% 18.47% 22.40% 23.02% 27.61% 28.69%

All 5907 1.25% 2.18% 3.81% 5.32% 6.30% 6.93% 7.47% 8.94% 9.12% 10.80% 11.20%
1/1/14

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Aaa 58 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 297 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1172 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.19% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.65%

Baa 1736 0.06% 0.06% 0.19% 0.19% 0.47% 0.61% 1.24% 1.24% 2.46% 2.46%

Ba 723 0.15% 0.48% 1.67% 3.19% 3.39% 4.75% 6.66% 6.91% 10.87% 11.47%

B 1097 0.50% 3.89% 7.73% 10.44% 12.23% 13.33% 17.08% 18.71% 24.70% 26.53%

Caa-C 1142 4.76% 11.88% 18.51% 24.62% 29.02% 32.34% 40.57% 41.25% 45.23% 46.18%

IG 3263 0.06% 0.06% 0.13% 0.13% 0.28% 0.39% 0.75% 0.75% 1.36% 1.49%

SG 2962 2.03% 5.98% 10.06% 13.50% 15.55% 17.33% 21.58% 22.46% 27.10% 28.24%

All 6225 0.97% 2.70% 4.45% 5.80% 6.64% 7.33% 8.98% 9.26% 11.08% 11.51%

68 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/15

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Aaa 57 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 307 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1248 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.51%

Baa 1744 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.41% 1.16% 1.16% 2.17% 2.26%

Ba 719 0.30% 1.56% 2.77% 2.95% 3.37% 4.70% 4.70% 9.23% 9.80%

B 1076 2.42% 6.13% 7.89% 10.12% 12.35% 16.94% 18.86% 25.33% 26.78%

Caa-C 1367 6.62% 13.03% 19.22% 23.47% 28.32% 37.83% 38.83% 42.33% 43.36%

IG 3356 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 0.24% 0.66% 0.66% 1.15% 1.32%

SG 3162 3.71% 7.94% 11.25% 13.63% 16.19% 21.28% 22.27% 27.09% 28.10%

All 6518 1.75% 3.67% 5.07% 6.10% 7.11% 9.16% 9.49% 11.35% 11.77%
1/1/16

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Aaa 53 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 311 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1305 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.29%

Baa 1730 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 0.26% 0.99% 1.06% 1.47% 1.64%

Ba 734 0.14% 0.77% 0.93% 1.50% 3.31% 3.31% 8.48% 9.28%

B 1019 1.68% 2.99% 4.83% 6.80% 11.92% 13.73% 20.77% 21.93%

Caa-C 1434 9.10% 15.83% 19.99% 24.72% 34.19% 35.58% 39.28% 41.20%

IG 3399 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.17% 0.53% 0.56% 0.76% 0.92%

SG 3187 4.63% 8.06% 10.37% 12.95% 18.55% 19.63% 24.84% 26.09%

All 6586 2.20% 3.73% 4.76% 5.80% 8.09% 8.49% 10.37% 10.87%
1/1/17

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Aaa 54 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 305 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1276 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.28%

Baa 1712 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.34% 0.41% 0.73% 0.89%

Ba 795 0.53% 0.53% 0.53% 1.58% 1.78% 6.91% 7.61%

B 979 0.45% 1.36% 3.31% 10.54% 12.17% 19.62% 21.08%

Caa-C 1442 7.55% 13.16% 18.98% 29.13% 30.71% 33.97% 36.48%

IG 3347 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.21% 0.24% 0.39% 0.55%

SG 3216 3.59% 6.23% 9.15% 15.62% 16.78% 21.96% 23.48%

All 6563 1.71% 2.90% 4.17% 6.86% 7.32% 9.29% 9.93%

69 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/18

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5 6

Aaa 56 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 258 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1305 0.00% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.34%

Baa 1761 0.00% 0.00% 0.32% 0.39% 0.82% 0.97%

Ba 830 0.00% 0.00% 1.08% 1.26% 7.13% 7.96%

B 976 0.68% 2.06% 8.96% 11.11% 17.41% 20.36%

Caa-C 1424 5.17% 11.43% 21.67% 23.43% 26.21% 30.34%

IG 3380 0.00% 0.06% 0.23% 0.26% 0.48% 0.62%

SG 3230 2.45% 5.48% 12.09% 13.51% 18.34% 20.99%

All 6610 1.17% 2.57% 5.52% 6.12% 8.11% 9.17%

1/1/19

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4 5

Aaa 54 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 294 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1304 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18%

Baa 1818 0.11% 0.23% 0.29% 1.09% 1.23%

Ba 799 0.00% 0.72% 1.04% 5.51% 6.69%

B 1003 1.20% 7.37% 9.33% 15.79% 18.37%

Caa-C 1414 6.52% 17.58% 19.41% 22.53% 28.67%

IG 3470 0.06% 0.12% 0.15% 0.55% 0.69%

SG 3216 3.20% 10.03% 11.50% 16.07% 19.55%

All 6686 1.53% 4.65% 5.30% 7.39% 8.82%

1/1/20

Rating n(0) 1 2 3 4

Aaa 54 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 333 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1307 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17%

Baa 1839 0.11% 0.11% 1.05% 1.18%

Ba 771 0.13% 0.43% 5.71% 6.61%

B 962 3.98% 5.43% 11.07% 13.75%

Caa-C 1396 12.83% 15.21% 19.13% 25.81%

IG 3533 0.06% 0.06% 0.53% 0.66%

SG 3129 6.92% 8.47% 13.29% 17.00%

All 6662 3.23% 3.91% 6.20% 7.76%

70 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

1/1/21

Rating n(0) 1 2 3

Aaa 50 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 330 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

A 1289 0.00% 0.00% 0.17%

Baa 1863 0.00% 0.87% 1.12%

Ba 780 0.00% 4.79% 5.28%

B 891 1.33% 8.25% 10.31%

Caa-C 1460 2.96% 6.57% 15.19%

IG 3532 0.00% 0.45% 0.64%

SG 3131 1.75% 6.64% 11.11%

All 6663 0.80% 3.18% 5.15%

1/1/22

Rating n(0) 1 2

Aaa 50 0.00% 0.00%

Aa 317 0.00% 0.00%

A 1321 0.00% 0.16%

Baa 1927 0.91% 1.14%

Ba 772 4.17% 4.60%

B 955 5.14% 6.84%

Caa-C 1589 3.84% 11.75%

IG 3615 0.48% 0.66%

SG 3316 4.29% 8.57%

All 6931 2.28% 4.33%

1/1/23

Rating n(0) 1

Aaa 50 0.00%

Aa 319 0.00%

A 1329 0.15%

Baa 1860 0.11%

Ba 699 0.73%

B 866 0.72%

Caa-C 1525 9.16%

IG 3558 0.11%

SG 3090 4.83%

All 6648 2.28%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

71 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Endnotes
1 Russian defaults accounted for 65 defaults in the 2022 tally and zero in that of 2023.
2 Dollar-weighted bond default rates only include defaulted bonds from US and European issuers.
3 Average recovery rates of senior unsecured bonds and other debts can be based on different defaulters because, for example, some defaulters may have
senior unsecured bonds and no other debts.
4 The analysis on ultimate recovery is provided by Julia Chursin, a corporate finance analyst at Moody's. The data is from Moody’s Ultimate Recovery
Database, which includes robust detailed recovery information for more than 6400 loans and bonds from 1,337 US corporate nonfinancial defaulters since
1987.
5 Glossary of Moody’s Ratings Performance Metrics for details on data methodology.
6 These forecasts were made in January 2024. We plan to update them towards the end of February.
7 For details about the EDF model, see Public Firm Expected Default Frequency (EDFTM) Credit Measures: Methodology, Performance, and Model
Extensions, June 2012.

72 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

© 2024 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.
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73 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

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most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

REPORT NUMBER 1395606

74 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR

Contacts CLIENT SERVICES

Yutian Li +1.212.553.0300 Renee Wan +1.212.553.7436 Americas 1-212-553-1653

Sr Credit Associate Credit Associate
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077
[email protected] [email protected]
Yitao Wu +1.212.553.3558 Christina Padgett +1.212.553.4164 Japan 81-3-5408-4100
Credit Associate Associate Managing EMEA 44-20-7772-5454
[email protected] Director
[email protected]
Kenneth Emery +1.212.553.4415 Jessica Gladstone, CFA +1.212.553.2988
Senior Vice President/ Managing Director
RPO [email protected]
[email protected]

75 26 February 2024 Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average