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M O D E L I N G CROP PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Principles a n d A p p l i c a t i o n
 Modeling Crop
Production Systems
Principles and Application

PHOOL SINGH
E m e r i t u s Professor o f P l a n t P h y s i o l o g y
C o l l e g e o f Basic Sciences a n d H u m a n i t i e s
CCS H a r y a n a A g r i c u l t u r a l U n i v e r s i t y , H i s a r
India

CRC Press
Taylor &. Francis Group
Boca Raton London New York

CRC Press is an imprint of the

Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

A SCIENCE PUBLISHERS BOOK

CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
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Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742

First issued in hardback 2017

© 2008, Copyright reserved
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ISBN 13: 978-1-138-40153-2 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-1-57808-418-0 (pbk)
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Singh, Phool.
M o d e l i n g c r o p p r o d u c t i o n s y s t e m s : p r i n c i p l e s and a p p l i c a t i o n / Phool Singh,
p . cm.
Includes bibliographical r e f e r e n c e s and i n d e x .
ISBN 1-57808-418-0
1. Food crops^Mat-hematical models. 2 . A g r i c u l t u r a l systemsHMathematical models. I . T i t l e .

SB175.S56 2006
631.501'5118-dc22
2006050610
Dedicated to m y professor

Dr. S.M. Welch

 Preface

Lord Kelvin had once stated, "When you cannot express it in numbers, your
knowledge is a meagre and unsatisfactory k i n d in this new era of
agricultural research and development, simulation partially substitutes for
experiments. Simulation can be instrumental in determining recommendations
for various agro-technology packages. Researchers and technologists are
convinced with the degree of accuracy achieved in simulating crop and soil
systems, thus enabling accurate prediction of the outcomes needed in
agricultural decision making.
Until recently, emphasis was more on food and feed production by way of
agronomic research and development. Now environmental concerns have
added another dimension. Our aim must be to maintain adequate food
production and minimize the level of environmental degradation. To achieve
this objective, we need to include simulation of all or part of the soil-plan t-
atmosphere systems. Arriving at these goals through experimental research only
will require huge resources. The use of simulation models is a necessity as also
an aide to help with the decision making progress in sustainable agricultural
systems. During these times of low funding for agricultural research and
extension, experimental research is both time consuming and expensive. For
the present, however, the evaluation of key simulated research must continue
along with field experimentation.
This book is directed at undergraduate and post-graduate students in the
disciplines of agronomy, plant breeding, agricultural meteorology, crop
physiology, agriculture economics, entomology, plant pathology, soil science
and ecology (environmental science). This book may also be useful for
administrators in various agricultural universities in order to direct research,
extension and teaching activities. Planners at national and state levels may also
benefit from this book.
A number of texts exist that deal with the application of mathematics in
the field of biology. A good book on modeling agricultural system should
examine the issue in sufficient depth to enable the reader to understand the
relation between an individual mathematical expression and its biological
intuition. Readers are advised that the relation between a certain pair of variables
viii Modeling Crop Production Systems

obeys a particular equation. The reader has to decide why such an equation
should be used, what physical and biological assumptions are implied by the
use of the equation, and when the equation should not be used.
The reader should also try to answer the query that why do certain physical
characteristics of a system lead to particular types of mathematical descriptions?
For example, the exponential growth of an organism is because of the fact that
the organism does not face any environmental resistance.
Crop production systems are among the most complex ones studied by
modern agricultural science. Organizing the experimental knowledge of crop
production system w i t h o u t the bookkeeping and deductive methods of
mathematics is very difficult. Research literature of experimental agriculture is
witness to the increasing use of mathematical methods. However, agricultural
scientists and students often lack the training to make proper use of these
methods, and agricultural scientists/students are often unable to grasp the
biological relevance of mathematical models encountered in literature.
This present book does possess the minimal mathematical prerequisites
necessary to familiarize oneself with the concepts of calculus, matrix algebra
and statistics. Here, the intention is to teach the students the process by which
the properties of the systems can be grasped in the framework of mathematical
structure. The primary concern is not with the manipulation of equations, but
the conceptual content of the relevant mathematical structure, A student whose
forma] mathematical background includes an elementary introduction to
calculus, matrix algebra and statistics, w i l l be able to comprehend the
conceptual content. It is essential for the student/reader to have a sufficient
grounding in those specific areas of crop production system to which the
concepts are applied.
In this book, two type of examples have been given: (1) those which are not
related to the agriculture; and (2) those which are related to the crop production
system. The former relates to prototypes and the latter deals w i t h the
complexities.
It is advisable to the students/readers to select the exercises which are
related to their field of specialization and apply the principles from their own
field of biology.
Modeling facility can be taken care of the experience of developing one's
own models and the critical study of models developed by others. If the reader
or student takes the first step in modeling, i.e he or she defines the problem or
system of his own interest, my objective is fulfilled. The first step will lead to
his or her destination if he continues the efforts till the problem is solved.
The book is based on course 'Entom 891, Sys. Modi. Biol' (Modeling of
Biological Systems, 3+1), taught to me by Professor S.M. Welch in 1980 at Kansas
State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA.
 Preface ix

This book consists of six chapters, namely:

1. Philosophy, role and terminology of system science;
2. Development of model structure;
3. Specification of component behavior;
4. Compu ter imp Lementa tion;
5. Model testing and validation; and
6. Biological application of models.
The author acknowledges the support of DST and USER Scheme, catalyzed
and supported by the Department of Science and Technology under the
utilization of scientific expertise of superannuated scientists scheme to
7

accomplishment of this project.

No man is an island into himself. This is particularly true in the field in
crop modeling which weaves together skeins from many sources; each worker
owes part of his intellectual development to many other peoples. I express my
gratitude to E.S. Pine and Steinlitz-Hammacher Co. New Jersy; B.F.J. Manly and
Chapman & Hall; PC. Muchow & J.A. Bellamy and CAB International; J. Sack
& J. Meadows and Science Research Associates, Inc.; R. Elmasri & S.B. Navathe
and Addison Wesley; K.R. Baker, C.C. Carter & J.N. Sasser, and North Carolina
State University Graphics; S.E. Jorgensen and Elsevier; C.H. Goulden and Asia
Publishing House; A.E. Lewis and East West Press Pvt. Ltd; W.J. Conover and
John Wiley & Sons; M.J. Kropff & H.H.V. Laar and CAB International; J. Hanks
and J.T. Ritchie and ASA, Inc., CSSA, Inc., SSSA Inc; K.F.E. Watt and McGraw-
Hill Book Co.; J.B. Dent and Blackie and Applied Science Publishers Ltd; R.W.
Poole and Mc Graw-Hill Book Co.; W.L. Quirin and Harper & Row publishers;
R.R. Sokal & F.J. Rohlf and W.H. Freeman & Co.; H.V. Keulen & J. Wolf and
PUDOC; R.M. Peart & R.B. Curry and Marcel Dekker, Inc.; J. France & J.H.M.
Thornley and Butterworths; C.R. Searle and John Wiley & Sons; J.D. Spain and
Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.; and L.J. Fritschen & L.W. Gay and Springer-
Verlag.
1 am deeply thankful to Regent Professor E.T. Kanemasu, Professor, G.M.
Paulsen and Professor S.M. Welch, who catalyzed and supported this project. I
also express my gratitude to UNESCO for the Fellowship at K.S.U. Manhattan,
without whose help, I could not write this book on modeling. I owe a great deal
to Prof. Maharaj Singh, the then Director of Research, CCS H A U , Hissar. I
express my gratitude to Dr D.P. Singh, the then Vice-ChancelJor, J1NKW Jabalpur
for the inspiration to complete this work.
I sincerely thank the distinguished Prof. J.W. Jones, Department of
Agricultural and Bio-Engineering, University of Florida, USA, for his valuable
comments to include the well thought out exercises and their solutions in this
text.
I shall always be in debt to CCS H A U , Hisar, the Departments of Botany,
Entomology, Plant Pathology, Soil Science, Agronomy Agril. Meteorology, Agril.
x Modeling Crop Production Systems

Economics and Directorate of Research. I also express my sincere thanks to

ISRO, Bangalore; Centre for Advanced Studies in Botany, Madras University;
NRSA, Hyderabad; IARI, New Delhi, SAC, Ahmedabad; CRR1, Cuttack for being
instrumental for improving the quality of the book.
I am extremely thankful to Dharmesh for formating of the manuscript and
Abhishek Saini for helping to review the literature.
I owe a continuing debt of gratitude to my family, particularly my wife, Uma,
for her forebearance during the long gestation of this book.
In the last but not the least, I express my gratitude greater than ever to
Valentina Chauhan, my daughter, for helping in correcting the proofs.

P H O O L SDMGH, Ph.D.
 Contents

Preface vii
1. PHILOSOPHY, R O L E A N D T E R M I N O L O G Y O F
SYSTEM SCIENCE 1
1.1 History of system science 1
1.1.1 Infancy 7
1.1.2 Juvenile phase 7
1.1.3 Adolescence 8
1.1.4 Maturity 9
1.2 General topology and terminology of systems 11
1.2.1 Variable 11
1.2.2 Parameter 12
1.2.3 System 13
1.2.4 Dynamic process/ model /system 14
1.2.5 Continuous versus discrete state spaces 15
1.2.6 Stochastic versus deterministic descriptions 16
1.2.6.1 Stochastic models of exponential growth 16
1.2.7 Modeling 19
1.2.8 Model 19
1.2.9 Steps in modeling 21
1.2.9.1 First Step: Define the problem 21
1.2.9.2 Second Step: Component identification 21
1.2.9.3 Third Step: Specify component behavior 22
1.2.9.4 Fourth Step: Computer implementation 22
1.2.9.5 Fifth Step: Validation 22
1.2.9.6 Sixth Step: Analysis 22
1.2.9.6.1 Sensitivity analyses 22
1.2.9.6.2 Stability analyses 22
1.3 Three problems 23
1.3.1 System management problem 23
1.3.2 Pure research problem 23
1.3.3 System design problem 24
References 24-26
xii Modeling Crop Production Systems

2. D E V E L O P M E N T OF M O D E L S T R U C T U R E 27
2.1 Variables and their classification 27
2.1.1 Individual observations 27
2.1.2 Sample of observations 27
2.1.3 Variables 27
2.1.4 Population 28
2.1.5 Variables and their classification 28
2.1.5.1 Measurement variables 28
2.1.5.2 Discontinuous variables 29
2.1.6 Ranked variables 29
2.1.7 Nomina] variables or attributes 30
2.1.8 Variate 30
2.1.9 Derived variable 30
2.1.10 Interval variable 33
2.1.11 Ratio variable 33
2.1.12 Rate-quantity variable 33
2.1.13 Example 34
2.1.13.1 Components 34
2.1.13.1.1 Person 34
2.1.13.1.2 Car 34
2.1.13.1.3 Highway 34
2.1.13.1.4 Environment 34
2.1.14 Exercise 36
2.2 Relationship between variables 37
2.2.1 Causal loop diagrams 38
2.2.1.1 Direct relations 38
2.2.1.2 Indirect relations 38
2.2.1.3 Relationship between rate and quantity variable 38
2.2.2 Types of relationship between variables 39
2.2.2.1 Direct (together) relations 39
2.2.2.2 Inverse relations 39
2.2.2.3 Indeterminate relations 39
2.2.2.4 Feedback relationship 39
2.2.3 Example of public address system 40
2.2.3.1 Step 1 40
2.2.3.2 Step 2. Qualitative description of the system 40
2.2.3.3 Step 3. Definition of relevant components, subsystems,
and interactions 40
2.2.3.4 Step 4. Definition of relevant variables 41
2.2.3.5 Step 5. Representation of the relations between the variables 42
2.2.3.6 Step 6. Description of the subsystems 43
2.2.3.7 Step 7. The model equations 44
2.2.3.8 Step 8. Studying the behaviour of the mode] 45
 Contents xiii

2.2.3.9 Example of feedback relationship: Simple public

address system 46
2.2.3.10 Example: Amplifier circuit with negative feedback 46
2.2.3.11 Effect of feedback on response to change in input 48
2.3 Structural (black box) model 51
2.4 Refinement in structural models 52
2.4.1 The structure of crop simulation models 52
References 56

3. SPECIFICATION O F C O M P O N E N T BEHAVIOR 57
3.1 Algebraic form 57
3.1.1 Matrix algebraic form for studying a specific behavior
of components 61
3.1.1.1 Use of matrix algebra in principal component analysis 73
3.1.1.2 Use of matrix algebra in linear programming
for optimization of the system 80
3.1.1.2.1 Remark 90
3.1.1.3 Use of matrix algebra for distance measurements 91
3.1.1.3.1 Calculation of group distances to make a dendogram 92
3.2 Integral-differential form 93
3.2.1 Example for formulating a differential equations 93
3.2.2 The absorption law of Lambert 95
3.3 Parameter estimation 96
3.3.1 Statistical procedure 96
3.3.1.1 Finding the best parameter values for linear equations 96
3.3.1.1.1 Useful characteristic of extrema 96
3.3.1.1.2 Expressions for parameters a and b 98
3.3.1.1.2.1 Derivative of a function of a funcrtion: The chain rule 98
3.3.1.1.2.2 Graphical representation 103
3.3.1.2 How good is the best fitting curve 103
3.3.1.3 Random versus systematic deviations 105
3.3.1.4 Linear approximations for quick estimating a
good fitting curve 105
3.3.1.5 Weighing of data 107
3.3.1.5.1 Example 108
3.3.1.6 Error due to data transformation 110
3.3.1.6.1 Example: Error due to data transformation 111
3.3.1.6.1.1 Graphical representation 117
3.3.1.7 Correlation between variables 117
3.3.1.7.1 Example 123
3.3.1.8 Forced correlation 124
3.3.1.8.1 Example 124
3.3.1.9 Statistical procedure for parameters estimation
of normal distribution curve 125
xiv Modeling Crop Production Systems

3.3.1.9.1 Practical uses of normal distribution curve and

table of normal distribution (double tail) 129
3.3.1.9.1.1 Example (Quirin 1978) 131
3.3.1.9.1.2 Example (Quirin 1978) 131
3.3.1.9.1.3 Differences between two population mean or proportions 131
3.3.1.9.1.4 Interval estimation 137
3.3.1.10 Parameter estimation of samples and the universe of discourse 145
3.3.1.11 Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing 147
3.3.1.11.1 Example (1) 150
3.3.1.11.2 Example (2) 155
3.3.1.11.3 Example (3) 156
3.3.1.11.4 Example (4) 157
3.3.1.11.5 Example (5) 160
3.3.1.11.6 Example (6) 160
3.3.1.11.7 Example (7) 161
3.3.1.12 Crop performance indices 165
3.4 Non-statistical procedure for estimating the parameters
(physical approach) 165
3.4.1 Non-statistical procedure of parameter estimation 165
3.4.1.1 Cuestimate of the intrinsic rate of increase 171
3.4.1.2 Computer language programming and simulation
studies on large computer as a non-statistical approach
for estimating parameters and for sensitivity analysis 175
3.4.1.3 Non-statistical approach for parameter estimate
in stochastic models 177
3.4.1.4 Estimation of binomial coefficient with non-statistical method 177
3.4.1.4.1 Example from Lewis (1971) 178
3.4.1.4.2 Binomial distribution (theorem) 179
3.4.1.5 Multinomial distribution 180
3.4.1.5.1 Example 180
3.4.1.6 Poisson distribution 181
3.4.1.7 O p t i m u m seeking designs as a non-statistical approach
in design of simulation experiments 181
3.4.1.8 Fitting model equations to experimental data 183
3.4.1.8.1 Selecting equations for fitting 185
3.4.1.8.2 Standard equation types 185
3.4.1.9 Mathematical formulation for solving the differentia]
equation (analytical solution) 194
3.4.1.10 Mathematical formulation for solving the difference
equation (numerical solution) 198
3.4.1.10.1 The finite difference approach 199
3.4.1.10.2 The Euler technique 200
3.4.1.10.3 An iterated second order Runge-Kutta method 202
References 203-204
 Contents xv

4. C O M P U T E R I M P L E M E N T A T I O N 205
4.1 Model software requirement 205
4.1.1 General purpose languages 207
4.1.2 Special-purpose simulation languages 207
4.1.3 Requirement of general-purpose or special purpose language 207
4.1.4 Requirement of special-purpose language 208
4.1.5 Recent softwares d eveloped 215
4.2 Generalized model 215
4.2.1 Specialization and generalization 219
4.2.2 Constraints and characteristics of specialization and
generaliza tion 225
4.3 Software specification 236
4.3.1 Command language 236
4.3.1.1 Data manipulating language for the hierarchial model 236
4.3.1.1.1 The GET command 237
4.3.1.1.2 THE GET PATH and GET NEXT W I T H I N PARENT
retrieval commands 238
4.3.1.1.3 H D M L commands for update 240
4.3.1.1.4 IMS: A hierarchial DBMS 241
4.3.2 Program 241
4.3.2.1 Flowcharting 243
4.3.2.1.1 General flowcharting rules 243
4.3.2.1.2 Flowchart symbols and their use 244
4.3.2.1.3 Examples of simple flowcharts 244
4.3.2.2 Introduction of basic programming 249
4.3.2.2.1 BASIC program 249
4.3.2.2.2 Line number 249
4.3.2.2.3 REM 249
4.3.2.2.4 READ and DATA 250
4.3.2.2.5 PRINT 250
4.3.2.2.6 LET 251
4.3.2.2.7 Variables 252
4.3.2.2.8 Constants 252
4.3.2.2.9 GOTO 253
4.3.2.2.10 STOP 253
4.3.2.2.11 IF. THEN 254
4.3.2.2.12 FOR and NEXT 254
4.3.2.2.13 Numeric functions 255
4.3.2.2.14 PRINT TAB 256
4.3.2.2.15 PRINT USING (TRS-80 only) 256
4.3.2.2.16 GOSUB and RETURN 257
4.3.2.2.17 GRAPH SUBROUTINE 261
4.3.2.2.18 Arrays and subscripted variables 265
xvi Modeling Crop Production Systems

4.3.22.19 Matrix subroutine 266

4.3.2.2.19.1 Inputting data to a matrix 266
4.3.2.2.19.2 Printing a matrix 267
4.3.2.2.19.3 Scalar multiplication by a constant, K 267
4.3.2.2.19.4 Post-multiplication of a matrix by a vector, X (C) 267
4.3.2.2.20 Important command mode instructions for apple 11
and TRS-80 267
4.3.2.2.20.1 Apple 0 plus 267
4.3.3 Data structure 269
4.3.3.1 Object data structure 269
4.3.3.2 The relational data structure 272
4.3.3.2.1 Relational model concepts 273
4.3.3.2.1.1 Domains, attributes, tupels, and relations 275
4.3.3.3 Network data structure 277
4.3.3.3.1 Network data modeling concepts 278
4.3.3.3.1.1 Records, record types, and data items 278
4.3.3.3.1.2 Set types and their basic properties 278
4.3.3.3.2 Special type of sets 282
4.3.3.3.3 Stored representations of set instances 282
4.3.3.3.4 Using sets to represent M : N relationships 285
4.3.3.4 Hierarchial data structure 288
4.3.3.4.1 Hierarchial database structures 288
4.3.3.4.1.1 Parent-child relationships and hierarchial schemas 288
4.3.3.4.1.2 Properties of a hierarchial schema 290
4.3.3.4.1.3 Hierarchial occurrence trees 291
4.3.3.4.1.4 Linearized form of a hierarchial occurrence tree 292
4.3.3.4.1.5 Virtual parent-child relationships 294
4.4 Data systems 297
4.4.1 Centralized data system 297
4.4.1.1 Centralized DBMS (Database Management System)
Architect 297
4.4.1.2 Client-server architecture 297
4.4.1.3 Client-server architectures for DBMSs 299
4.4.2 Hierarchial data system 301
4.4.2.1 Integrity constraints in the hierarchial model 301
4.4.2.2 Data definition in the hierarchial model 301
4.4.2.3 Data manipulation language for the hierarchial model 304
4.4.2.3.1 The get command 304
4.4.2.3.2 THE GET PATH and GET NEXT W I T H I N PARENT 306
4.4.2.3.3 H D M L commands for update 307
4.4.2.3.4 IMS: A hierarchial DBMS 308
References 309
 Contents xvii

5. M O D E L T E S T I N G A N D V A L I D A T I O N 310
5.1 Sensitivity analysis 310
5.2 Stability analysis 313
5.3 Validation 313
5.3.1 Types of goals of validation 313
5.3.2 Validation test based on confidence limits 314
5.3.2.1 Test for linearity of regression 320
5.3.3 Test based on least square procedure 322
5.3.3.1 Comparison between test based on confidence limit
and least square procedure 326
5.3.4 Tests based on probability distribution 327
5.3.4.1 The Smirnov test 328
5.3.4.1.1 Data 328
5.3.4.1.2 Assumption 328
5.3.4.1.3 Hypotheses 328
5.3.4.1.4 Test statisics 328
5.3.4.1.5 Decisonrule 329
5.3.4.2 Spearman's rho test (as quoted in Conover, 1980) 330
5.3.4.2.1 Data 330
5.3.4.2.2 Measure of correlation 331
5.3.4.3 Kendall's tau test (as quoted in Conover, 1980) 333
5.3.4.3.1 Data 333
5.3.4.3.2 Measure of correlation 334
5.3.5 Risk-to-user criteria 335
References 338-339

6. B I O L O G I C A L A P P L I C A T I O N O F M O D E L S 340
6.1 Ecological applications 341
6.1.1 Prey-predator system 341
6.1.1.1 Lotka-Voltara model for two-species prey-predator system 343
6.1.1.2 Prey-predator ecosystem 344
6.1.1.2.1 Representation of a simple prey-predator system 345
6.1.1.2.2 Component diagram for simple prey-predator system 345
6.1.1.2.3 Symbol arrow graph for simple prey-predator system 345
6.1.1.2.4 Variables for the prey-predator ecosystems 346
6.1.1.2.5 Parameters for the prey-predator ecosystem 346
6.1.1.2.6 The model equations of prey-predator ecosystem 346
6.1.1.2.7 Steady states of prey-predator ecosystem 347
6.1.1.2.8 Non-steady-state behavior 351
6.1.1.2.9 Simulation of prey-predator system 353
6.1.1.2.9.1 Exercise 354
6.1.1.2.10 Effects of time delay 355
6.1.1.2.11 Time required for developmental event 356
xviii Modeling Crop Production Systems

6.1.1.2.12 Delayed effects of environment 356

6.1.1.2.12.1 A n example of a system with delays 356
6.1.1.2.13 Models with age structure 358
6.1.1.2.14 A n example of a biological control model 360
6.1.1.2.15 Sensitivity analysis 362
6.1.2 Plant competition studies 362
6.1.2.1 Intraspecific competition in plants 362
6.1.2.1.1 Pielou's measures of intraspecific competition in plants 363
6.1.2.2 Competition among several plant species 365
6.1.3 Environmental management 368
6.1.3.1 Example: Energy flow and nutrient cycling in a grassland
ecosystem 369
6.1.3.1.1 Energy flow 370
6.1.3.1.2 Nutrient cycling 375
6.2 Agricultural application 378
6.2.1 Crop yield 378
6.2.1.1 Potential crop yield 378
6.2.1.2 Computer program for predicting water limited production 391
6.2.1.3 Sensitivity analysis of crop model as a help to crop
production research 397
6.2.1.4 Use of crop yield models for precision farming 398
6.2.1.5 Crop yield models using remote sensing DATA 400
6.2.1.6 Status of research and development on crop
simulation models 401
6.2.1.7 Models used for directing agricultural research 402
6.2.1.8 Models used in resource management 403
6.2.1.9 Models of crop growth (empirical and mechanistic models) 403
6.2.1.9.1 Empirical 403
6.2.1.9.2 Mechanistic models 403
6.2.1.9.2.1 Status of research and development on crop simulation
model in India 406
6.2.1.9.2.2 Status of research and development on crop simulation
model in India and abroad through remote sensing
technology 406
6.2.1.9.2.3 Models used as policy analysis tools 409
6.2.1.9.2.4 Advantages and limitations of crop models 410
6.2.2 Plant disease prediction 410
6.2.2.1 Event stepping module in the barley-leaf-rust model 412
6.2.2.1.1 The barley-leaf-rust-model construction 412
6.2.2.1.2 Validation of the barley-leaf-rust model 416
6.2.2.1.2.1 Statistical assessment 416
6.2.2.1.3 Computer-based experimentation of the
barley-leaf-rust model 420
6.2.2.1.4 Application of the barley-leaf-rust model 422
 Contents xix

6.2.2.1.4.1 Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the

barley-leaf-rust model 422
6.2.2.2 Other relevant literature on disease prediction 424
6.2.2.2.1 Estimation of crop losses 424
6.2.2.2.2 Disease prediction and control 425
6.2.2.2.3 Plant disease deductive model 426
6.2.3 Insect phenology 429
6.2.3.1 Development of an organism 430
6.2.3.1.1 Heat sums or the day-degree rule 431
6.2.3.1.2 Day length and other environmental factors 432
6.2.3.1.3 Calender days as a factor 433
6.2.3.1.4 Work done on insect phenology in India and aborad 433
6.2.4 Symbiosis between crop modeling and genomies 435
Appendix-A: Exercises on modeling crop production systems 438
Appendix-B: Discussion and solutions of exercises 459
References 490-506
Index 507-510
Epilog 513
 1
Philosophy, Role and Terminology of
System Science

1.1 H I S T O R Y O F S Y S T E M S C I E N C E

I n the post second w o r l d war scenario, system science remained

confined to the design of electrical circuits in laboratories under the aegis
of electrical engineering.
The concepts of p o t e n t i a l and transfer a p p l y d i r e c t l y to s i m p l e
electrical circuits. Ohm's law relates the applied voltage, £, in a circuit
to the product of the current, / and resistance R,

E = iR, (1.1)
where E is the potential difference or the w o r k done i n m o v i n g one charge
in the field of another charge. The unit of potential is volt, V, w i t h one
v o l t b e i n g e q u a l to 1 j o u l e per C o u l o m b . G e n e r a l l y the p o t e n t i a l
difference is expressed w i t h respect to some reference level. Often, the
level is called the g r o u n d , considered to be an infinite electrical sink.
The current represents the movement of electrons or charge. Since the
charge of an electron is 0.1603 x 10" Coulomb, A s , current is thought
18

of as the rate of movement of coulombs. Current is expressed in ampere,

A, where one ampere is equal to one coulomb per second.
The resistance of a circuit is the restriction to the flow of current
which is related to the electron field of the material used. Resistance here
is expressed in Ohms, Q. One O h m is equal to one volt per ampere.
Power, P, is used to express the dissipation of energy. It is the product
of volt and ampere, or joules per second. Other useful expressions are:

(1.2)

Resistors may be connected either in parallel or in series, g i v i n g rise

to parallel, series, and combination circuit. The series circuit is illustrated
in Figure 1.1.
2 Modeling Crop Production Systems

Fig. 1.1 The series circuit.

The same current flows through all of the resistors since they are
connected in the series. H o w e v e r , the total voltage d r o p across the
i n d i v i d u a l resistors is equal to the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l voltage drops.

£ = £, + £ + £ 2 3 (1.3)

By substitution, £ = z'R, + IR + /R 2 3 (1.4)

or y = R, + R + R = TR
2 3 (1.5)

Assuming R, = 20 Q, R = 50 Q, R
2 3 = 30 Q, and £ = 5 volts, we have

/=— = = 0.05 A (1.6)

(20+50+30)

£, - 0.05 x 20 = 1 V (1.7)

£ = 0.05 x 50 = 2.5 V
2 (1.8)

£ = 0.05 x 30 = 1.5 V
3 (1.9)
In contrast to a series circuit, the voltage across all the legs of a
parallel c i r c u i t is the same and the total c u r r e n t is the sum o f the
i n d i v i d u a l currents. Consider a parallel circuit in Figure 1.2.

Fig. 1.2 The parallel circuit.

(1.10)
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 3

(1.11)

(1.12)

where R is the parallel resistance of the n e t w o r k . The equation for

p

parallel resistance is

(1.13)

W h e n o n l y t w o resistances are in p a r a l l e l , the above e q u a t i o n

becomes

(1.14)

The parallel resistance in foregoing Figure 1.2 is

(1.15)

The current flow is

(1.16)

and

A combination series and parallel circuit, sometimes called a loaded

voltage divider, is used to illustrate one of the most common errors in
4 Modeling Crop Production Systems

environmentaJ measurements, 'the error of parallel resistors'. Consider

a combination circuit

Fig. 1.3 A c o m b i n a t i o n circuit.

If R, = 400 Q., R = 100 CL, and R is infinite, then unloaded o u t p u t

2 3

voltage £ is 1/5 of £ or 10 mv i f £ = 50 m v . As the resistance of R

Q 3

decreases, the parallel resistance of R and R decrease w i t h a resulting

2 3

decrease in the loaded output voltage £ . The difference between £ and L L

£ can be thought of as an output error and represented as 100 ( £ - £ ) / £

0 L 0 Q

for v a r i o u s values of R / R , w h i c h is s h o w n in the f o l l o w i n g table

3 2

indicating the error associated w i t h a loaded voltage:

T a b l e 1.1 T h e e r r o r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l o a d e d v o l t a g e d i v i d e r

R3 (F F \
-±- 100 L - L
0 L

ohms mv < £
o >
1 0.010 0.123 98.765
10 0.100 1.111 88.889
100 1.000 5.556 44.444
1000 10.000 9.259 7.407
10000 100.000 9.921 0.794
100000 1000.000 9.952 0.080
1000000 10000.000 9.999 0.008

Source: F r i t s c h e n , L.J. a n d L . W . G a y , S e p t e m b e r 1979, E n v i r o n m e n t a l I n s t r u m e n ­

tation. Springer-Verlag, New York, Heidelberg, Berlin, pp.216.

The error decreases w i t h a corresponding increase in the ratio R / R . 3 2

The error is approximately 0.1% when R / R is 1000 (Table 1.1). Either 3 2

the impedance of a measuring device, e.g. R , must be at least 1000 times 3

the resistance of the device being measured, or the resistance of a voltage

divider must be atleast 1000 times the resistance of the transducer.
A system ( c i r c u i t n e t w o r k ) m i g h t be h a v i n g many subsystems
(components, resistors). A component has its o w n i n p u t and output. The
o u t p u t of the system w i l l be decided by the i n p u t s and o u t p u t s of
i n d i v i d u a l components. The efficiency of the system w i l l be controlled
by (1) input, (2) output, and (3) component.
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 5

Thus,
(1) represent the system as a network of components;
(2) describes the relationship between the input and o u t p u t of each
component;
(3) on this basis, it predicts the system behavior; and
(4) incorporates model results into a larger system.
The second discipline, aided by system science, is economical in cost
and reliability analyses.
Since the seventeenth century, biology has been using the principles
of systems science to study the p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h vis-a-vis b i r t h and
death rates. Ln the beginning of the nineteenth century, demographers
used the concepts of system science to predict the future population of
human beings.
The prediction of the spread of malaria has been made since the
beginning of twentieth century w i t h the help of the following equations:

dlh lh_Rh
=

d / f f

d Ih lh
where —— is the rate of increase of infected h u m a n , - is the number
-

dt t
of new infection per unit time; and Rh is the number of recovery per unit
time.
Similarly,

(1.18)

d im lm
where —— is the rate of increase of infected mosquitoes; ~ ~ is the

Dm
number of infection per unit time; and ~ ~ is the number of death of
infected mosquitoes.
The d i s c i p l i n e of c r o p science d i d not lag b e h i n d in u s i n g the
principles of systems science. In 1971, the first crop model came into
existence on cotton crop w i t h the emphasis on interfacing photosynthesis
w i t h other plant physiological processes.
International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer
(TBSNAT) project d i d a commendable job from September 1, 1982 to
6 Modeling Crop Production Systems

August 31, 1993, on modeling on varieties of cereals: wheat, maize, barley,

sorghum, millet and rice; grain legumes: soybean, peanut and dry bean;
root crops: cassava, a r o i d and potato; and other crops: s u n f l o w e r ,
sugarcane, pineapple, cotton (TBSNAT Decade, 1993).
A f t e r the c o m p l e t i o n of the I B S N A T project, the I n t e r n a t i o n a l
Consortium for A g r i c u l t u r a l Systems Applications (1CASA) came into
existence. 1CASA is an c o n s o r t i u m of i n d i v i d u a l s and organizations
i n v o l v e d in or interested i n systems research and a p p l i c a t i o n s . A
multidisciplinary effort is anticipated and expected in continuation of the
[ B S N A T p r o j e c t . ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l B e n c h m a r k Sites N e t w o r k for
Agrotechnology Transfer, November, 1993, The IBSNAT decade, IBSNAT,
Dept. of A g r o n o m y and SoiJ Science, College of Tropical Agriculture and
Human Resources, University of Hawaii, H o n o l u l u , Hawaii).
Sirotenko (2001) presented a brief history of crop modeling activities
in the former USSR. The author's view on the problems and perspective
of further development is delineated here. The history of crop-modeling
in the former Soviet Union is not tedious and monotonous. It started w i t h
the almost s i m u l t a n e o u s d e v e l o p m e n t of t w o c o m p e t i t i v e versions
(radiation and carbon dioxide) of the quantitative theory of plant canopy
photosynthesis. The first approach had been developed by Budagovsky
et al., (1964) and the second one was presented by Budyko (1964) and
Budyko and Gandin (1964). While y o u n g scientists were delighted w i t h
these works, the leading specialists rejected them as a mere mathematical
game. Still, an informal society called Weather-Yield Mathematics (WYM)
was established in 1968 to develop these new ideas under the leadership
of Professor Juhan Ross. In the following three decades, extensive and
rather effective activities on developing crop simulation models in the
former USSR have been carried out w i t h i n the f r a m e w o r k of W Y M ,
r e s u l t i n g in more than 20 m o n o g r a p h s and some 100 papers being
published.
Due to the economic crisis generated by the disintegration of the
USSR, the optimism of the participants of W Y M society has changed to
disappointment associated w i t h the lack of progress in the application
of mathematical models and computer in A g r o n o m y . Activities in this
field practically stopped for some years and only recently, there have
been some signs of reanimation. What are the conclusions that can be
d r a w n from an analysis of the experience gained in crop modeling in the
former USSR?
Sinclair and Saligman (1996) provided the historical aspects of the
crop modeling in describing the entire period of crop modeling into four
phases: (1) infancy, (2) juvenility, (3) adolescence, and (4) maturity.
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 7

1.1.1 Infancy

Infancy refers to the period following World War 0 (1963-70), when

system analysis and computer science provided convenient and relatively
f r i e n d l y techniques to emulate the i n t e r a c t i o n of c o m p o n e n t s in a
complex system stimulated by the Cold War and space exploration. The
earliest models were d e v e l o p e d to estimate l i g h t i n t e r c e p t i o n and
photosynthesis in crop canopies (Loomis and W i l l i a m s , 1963; de W i t ,
1965; Duncan et ah, 1967; Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). These models
calculated the light profile in a canopy and made it possible to assess the
s e n s i t i v i t y of c r o p p h o t o s y n t h e t i c rates to solar angles, leaf angle
distribution, and the latitudinal position of the crop. These models were
relatively simple, but they opened the way to quantitative, mechanistic
estimates of the m a x i m u m attainable g r o w t h rates. Crop g r o w t h and
p o t e n t i a l y i e l d became q u a n t i t a t i v e l y and d e m o n s t r a b l y l i n k e d via
biochemical and biophysical mechanisms to the amount of solar energy
available for the accumulation of chemical energy and biomass by plants.

1.1.2 Juvenile Phase

In the juvenile phase, a further stimulus to crop modeling followed

by t r e m e n d o u s advances i n e q u i p m e n t s for field e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n
provided entirely new sets of data to use in models. These advances in
equipments included photocells to measure canopy light level, improved
anemometers to monitor the w i n d speed in and above the crop, and data
loggers w i t h m a g n e t i c data storage. The new e x p e r i m e n t a l data
encouraged a physico-chemical view of crop g r o w t h based on a detailed
description of the crop microclimate and the response of the plants to
this environment (Lemon et al., 1971; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).
Such models offered the promise of experimentation in the evaluation
of i m p r o v e d genetic material and new management techniques in the
context of a w i d e range of cropping environments (Bowen et al., 1973;
as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
I m p o r t a n t advances in describing the various subcomponents of
carbon assimilation were made d u r i n g this period and the significance
of stomatal conductance in regulating leaf gas exchange was q u a n t i ­
tatively described (Cowan, 1977; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996). The fate of photoassimilates in respiratory pathways was carefully
analyzed (Penning de Vries, 1975; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).
D e v e l o p m e n t a l processes of plants became an i m p o r t a n t consi­
deration as the time frame of models was lengthened to include the entire
8 Modeling Crop Production Systems

g r o w i n g season. Expressions for the partitioning of the assimilate among

various tissues, particularly to the grain, were important. The addition
of these various components led to a number of models of complexity
such as GOSSYM (Whisler et ah, 1986; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996), CERES (Ritchie et ah, 1985; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996), and SOYGRO (Wilkerson et al., 1985; as quoted in Sinclair and
Saligman, 1996).

1.1.3 Adolescence

The processes that determine the manner in w h i c h materials are

partitioned w i t h i n the plant are not well understood. In order to describe
these processes w i t h i n the p l a n t , m o d e l b u i l d e r s h a v e d e f i n e d
hypothetical pools of compounds that responded to supply and demand.
Such reductionism, w h e n inappropriately applied, can be misleading.
When a high level of plant organization is being modeled, its use may
well give a more distorted representation of organ g r o w t h than the use
of conservative allometric relationships (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). A
simple water balance model was found to be superior to C O T T A M and
GOSSYM in a p p r o x i m a t i n g crop water stress and field water balance
(Asare et al., 1992; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). A n empirical
equation was found to be superior to CERES in predicting the annual
potential wheat yields in Maxico (Bell and Fischer, 1994; as quoted in
Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). In simulating the water runoff from various
agricultural watersheds, Loague and Freeze (1985; as quoted in Sinclair
and S e l i g m a n , 1996) f o u n d a r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s u p e r i o r to a
quasi-physically-based model.
Increasing reductionism in models d i d not result in less variability
in predictions among the complex models (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
The practical consequence is that it is impossible to create universal crop
model (Spitters, 1990; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). N o t
surprisingly, it has been found that each new season or a new location
brings new challenges that were not foreseen in the original model, and
the expectation of u n i v e r s a l i t y fails (Sinclair and S e l i g m a n , 1996).
Attempts made to use the existing crop models developed for higher
latitudes failed an experiment to simulate crops in the semiarid tropics
of Australia (Carberry and Abrecht, 1991; as quoted in Sinclair and
Seligman, 1996). I m p o r t a n t deficiencies were found in each of three
complex wheat models even after they had been calibrated for a new set
of conditions in New Zealand (Porter et ah, 1993, as quoted in Sinclair
and Seligman, 1996).
This is a belief that crop model must be verified or validated. A l l
models are basically a collection of hypotheses, so they inherently cannot
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 9

be validated (Pease and Bull, 1992; Oreskes et al., 1994; as quoted in

Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). Not only can other collections of hypotheses
approximate the experimental results equally well, but the validation data
themselves are flawed by substantial experimental and observational
error (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
Despite all these shortcomings, crop models can be used effectively
to study the possible implications of various assumptions about a crop
or an environment. This v i e w p o i n t has been explicitly adopted by the
American Society of Agronomy towards publication of agronomic models
in the A g r o n o m y Journal. M o d e l i n g papers are desired that 'deal w i t h
both concepts and integration of agronomic information into model and 7

m o d e l ' V a l i d a t i o n ' is not to be considered as a major factor in the

acceptance of a paper (Hatfield, 1993, as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).
Overall, three of the original basic ideas of crop models have been
discredited: models are not necessarily i m p r o v e d by extensive reduc-
tionism; universal crop models can not be constructed; and models cannot
be validated. A l l of these changes have necessitated a new perspective
on the construction and benefits of crop models (Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).

1.1.4 Maturity

One can visualize crop models in teaching, research and applied

models as powerful aids where in reasoning about the performance of a
crop or about the relative benefits of alternative management strategies.
The crop models allow us to set our knowledge and assumptions about
the behavior of a crop in an organized, logical and dynamic framework.
After studying or using the models, faulty assumptions can be usually
identified and a more structural insight to the importance of specific
feedback effects acquired (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
The heuristic benefit of crop models in teaching is clear. Crop models
were i n t r o d u c e d i n t o the classroom more than 20 years ago, w i t h
c o n t i n u a l u p g r a d a t i o n (e.g. W a l d r e n , 1984; H a r t and Hanson, 1990;
Wullschleger et al., 1992; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). Crop
m o d e l i n g exercises are perceived by students as an effective tool for
teaching factors that influence crop production (Meisner et al., 1991; as
quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). Relatively simple, transparent
models allow students to explore the major factors that influence crop
production under various circumstances. Learning is likely to be facili­
tated by using a model that is simple and transparent enough in its
structure to allow students to dissect it and to understand the logic
underlying behavior (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
10 Modeling Crop Production Systems

Research on crop systems or subsystems can use models to organize

concepts and information that reflect the current understanding of the
system as also to d e t e r m i n e their adequacy in e x p l a i n i n g relevant
phenomena. Shortcomings of the model can h i g h l i g h t i m p o r t a n t but
poorly understood aspects of the crop. The model needs to be structured
in such a manner that variables become physically or physiologically
meaningful and can be investigated either experimentally or by observing
the system behavior. Crop models can then prove to be quite useful in
analyzing experimental results by virtue of their ability to substantiate
possible causes of differences, thus p r o v i d i n g a level of interpretation
beyond the bounds of statistical significance that c u r r e n t l y guide the
analyses of crop experiments (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
Even the use of crop models in farm management has succeeded
more in an heuristic role rather than as an on-line decision aid. Examples
can be g i v e n of the S I R A T A C model for cotton pest management in
Australia (Ives and Hearn, 1987; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996)
and the EPIPRE model for wheat pest management in the Netherlands
(Rabbinge and Rijsdijk, 1983, as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
Each model requires the growers to pay for membership and supply field
observations to a central processing centre. A t the central processing
centre, model s i m u l a t i o n s p r o v i d e d the g r o w e r s w i t h u p d a t e d pest
management recommendations. In each case, there was an initial steady
increase in grower membership, which resulted in a general improvement
in pest m a n a g e m e n t . H o w e v e r , b o t h s y s t e m s s u f f e r e d a loss of
membership after the initial successes. The decline in participation has
been ascribed not to dissatisfaction w i t h the model results but to the fact
that the growers believed they had learned the lessons of the models and
could now manage on their o w n (Weiss, 1994, as quoted in Sinclair and
Seligman, 1996). The models were a success in the sense that they taught
the growers improved pest management by helping them interpret their
o w n field observations more effectively (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
While crop models cannot produce all the answers to crop production
problems, when reasonably constructed, they can prove to be important
heuristic tools in teaching, research and in management and adminis­
trative applications. They can also be used to produce hypotheses and
knowledge, thereby a l l o w i n g the user to reason more consistently and
t r a n s p a r e n t l y about factors or c o n d i t i o n s that deserve t h o u g h t by
students, additional experimental study by researchers, or more attention
from growers. Intelligent, consistent, transparent reasoning—as well as
observations, experimentations and experience—cannot be replaced by
crop models, but they can be well supported by them. Because of the
large number of situations when the heuristics functions of crop models
can prove to be crucial, if not an indispensible tool, it is believed that
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 11

crop modeling can be expected to have a long and production maturity

(Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).

1.2. G E N E R A L T O P O L O G Y A N D T E R M I N O L O G Y O F S Y S T E M S

1.2.1 Variable

As is obvious, a variable w i l l vary w i t h times. A useful thumb ruJe

is to take the variables to be the inputs and outputs of the i n d i v i d u a l
components. A t the same t i m e , w h e n we define the variables, it is
convenient to assign them symbols so that we may refer to them later
w i t h o u t u n d u l y o v e r w o r k i n g ourselves.
A t the time, when the variables are listed, it is usually desirable to
specify their dimensions. The dimensions of a variable essentially reveal
what kind of physical entity the variable represents.
The overall i n p u t along w i t h the overall output represent the interac­
tion of the system w i t h its environment. In the investigation of a natural
system, the o v e r a l l i n p u t includes the e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s and
external stimuli applied to the system. The overall o u t p u t includes all
the observable responses. A n investigator often modifies the system so
as to obtain an o u t p u t not normally yielded by the system or to render
it abnormally sensitive to a particular type of input. When this is done,
the investigator must carefully consider the relationship between the
original system he or she wishes to learn about and the modified system
under study.
Even though most of the discussion is in terms of the rate of change
w i t h respect to time, the same consideration applies in discussing the rate
of change w i t h respect to any other variables taken as an independent
variable. Time is itself an independent variable; so is space may. M i n d ,
matter, energy may be classified as dependent variables.
Certain measurements increase by vanishingly small amounts, the
smallness being limited by one's ability to discriminate between corres­
pondingly fine differences. For example, if we were to take 1000 people,
all of them w e i g h i n g between 150 and 151 pounds, we could, if the scales
were sufficiently sensitive, arrange them in order of increasing weight.
O b v i o u s l y , i n o r d e r to d o t h i s , we w o u l d need a scale t h a t can
discriminate differences smaller than 1/1000 of a pound. Theoretically,
w i t h an unlimited population to draw from, we could take 1000 people
weighing people between 150.002 and 152.003 pounds and also arrange
them in order of weight if the scales were sensitive to less than 1/1000000
of a p o u n d . Needless to say, in real life, there w o u l d never be any
occasion to carry these measurements to such h a i r - s p l i t t i n g accuracy.
Nevertheless, a mean value of, say, 150.01 pounds has a conceptual
reality. Such variables are k n o w n as continuous variables.
12 Modeling Crop Production Systems

On the other hand, if a statistician states that the average family has
2.3 children, we hinder at the image of three tenths of a child. We do not
for a moment deny the utility of this mean for certain economic uses, but
we immediately realize that another class of values is i n v o l v e d . Such
measures are called discontinous variables. They can be arrived at by
counting rather than by measuring against a scale of some kind. Generally,
we enumerate progeny w i t h distinct characteristics; in studying epidemics,
we count cases; i n bacteriology, we count organisms, i n all of these
examples the units are indivisible, the count moves up, discontinues and
stops instead of rolling up a continuous slope.

1.2.2 Parameter

The distinction between parameters and overall inputs is not always

clear. Practically, quantities that display a great deal of variability are
usually treated as inputs, whereas those that are more nearly constant
are treated as parameters. So, for example, i f we have a g r o w i n g bacterial
population, the rate of g r o w t h as determined by temperature, nutrient
supply, acidity, and so on. The 'rate of g r o w t h ' , w h i c h is often treated
as a parameter, includes the dependence of the bacterial system upon its
environment.
A distinction may be made between inputs, outputs, parameters, and
state variables on the basis of their m u t u a l dependences, as accounted
for by the equations of the models. Inputs and parameters depend upon
none of the other quantities. Outputs depend upon inputs, parameters,
and state variables, while state variables depend upon inputs, parameters,
and each other.
The o v e r a l l o u t p u t depends on the instantaneous values of the
variables, that are to be taken as defining the instantaneous condition or
the state of the system and may be referred as state variables, i f we k n o w
the form of equations, the value of the i n p u t , and the values of the
parameters, then the model tells us how the state variables change.
Parameters may change w i t h the age. For example, the permeability
of the cell membrane may change w i t h time. The parameter value may
also depend upon the time of the day. For example, i n bee foraging, the
system parameters may depend upon time of the day.
The Gaussian or normal curve is described by the equation

For non-mathematics students, this equation w i l l certainly appear

i n c o m p r e h e n s i b l e , b u t i t is u s u a l l y not used d i r e c t l y i n b i o l o g i c a l
statistics. These are a few significant features of this equation, w h i c h can
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 13

be appreciated by even those w h o are relatively not comfortable w i t h

figures. In this equation, Y represents the relative frequency of some
variable quantity, x. The values for n and e are constant. % is the familiar
ratio of the circumference to the diameter of any circle, 3.1416; and e is
the base of the Neparian or natural logarithms. For those new to such
terminology, e may be taken as a constant in the same way that the value
of 7r is accepted.
The i m p o r t a n t features to be noted are the t w o parameters (i.e.,
numerical characteristics) j i and o, where j i is the arithmatic mean, and,
o the standard d e v i a t i o n . The standard deviation is a measure of the
spread of the data about the mean. Since the value for n and e are fixed
forever and constant, the entire curve is completely defined or charac­
terized by the t w o parameters, the mean and standard deviation. Thus,
parameters are the fixed values v a r y i n g from one population to another.
These are not fixed forever and, hence, are not constant.
In systems science, the topic of discussion m i g h t be the form of the
relationship between the variables and the manner in which this form
relates to behavior of the system and the hypothesized mechanisms
responsible for that p a r t i c u l a r behavior. These relationships i n v o l v e
parameters that can often be related to the expected frequency of occur­
rence of certain u n d e r l y i n g events.
For example, if the hypothesized equation is

where K is a parameter.
A single data point is enough to determine the value of K. Usually,
K w o u l d be estimated as the mean of at least t w o observations. Further­
more, if the difference between these two observations is more than what
could reasonably be ascribed to expected errors, additional observations
w o u l d have to be made in order to test the hypothesis that y is constant.
If the hypothesized relation is the straight Line.

the values of a and b can be determined from any t w o data points. If the
true relation is not a straight line, it cannot be determined from just t w o
points. Furthermore, even if the true relation is a straight line but one
(or both) of the points is appreciably in error, we get the w r o n g straight
line i.e. an erronous value for a and b.

1.2.3 System

A system may be any entity to w h i c h something comes in as exo­

genous i n p u t and s o m e t h i n g goes o u t as o u t p u t of the system. This
14 Modeling Crop Production Systems

o u t p u t may again influence the exogenous i n p u t , an aspect w h i c h is

completely ignored. System includes a component, state variables and
system parameters.
The levels of the biological system are:
(1) Molecule
( 2 ) Organell
(3) Cell
(4) Tissue
(5) Organ
(6) I n d i v i d u a l
(7) Population
(8) C o m m u n i t y
(9) Ecosystem
(10) Biosphere
Over the years, the concepts of system analysis have g r a d u a l l y
emerged into an accepted body of theory. Initially, system analysis was
conceived as an i n t e g r a t i n g f r a m e w o r k w h e r e i n c o m p l e x s y s t e m s -
possibly i n v o l v i n g several disciplines-could be studied (Boulding, K.E.
"General System Theory—The Skeleton Science', Man. Sci. Vol. 2, pp. 197¬
208, 1956, as quoted in Dent and Anderson, 1971). This inter disciplinary
function is even now of prime importance; major industrial, commercial
or military projects cannot be successfully handled w i t h i n the confines
of a single discipline. The system view is a holistic one, which implies
that an isolated study of parts of the system w i l l not be adequate to
understand the complete system. This is because the separate parts are
linked in an interacting manner. A system implies a complexity of factors
that interact; it implies an interaction between these factors and also that
a conceptual boundary may be erected around the complex as a limit to
its organizational autonomy (Dent, J.B. and J.R. Anderson, 1971). Fridgen
et al., (2004) defined the concept of identification and management of a
region w i t h i n the geographic area confined by field boundaries.

1.2.4 Dynamic Process/Mod el/System

D y n a m i c systems are systems or processes w h o s e state (state

variables of the system defined on the basis of inputs, parameters, and
each other) is constantly changing w i t h time. Even though most of the
discussion is in terms of the rate of change w i t h respect to time, the same
considerations apply in discussing the rates of change w i t h respect to any
other variable taken as independent. If the state of the system is specified
by the values of n state variables, it is convenient to represent it as a point
in ^-dimensional space, which is termed the state space for the system.
As the system changes in time, so does the position of the p o i n t that
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 15

represents the system. The change of the system in time is, therefore,
represented by the motion of a point in the ^-dimensional state space.
As the point moves, it traces out a path in the ^-dimensional state space,
which is referred to as the trajectory of the system. Thus, the system and
its progress in time can be represented either by a path (trajectory) in
state space or by an equation that describes the trajectory.
If the state is one- or t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l , then one can d r a w the
trajectory and visually exhibit the path in state space along w h i c h the
system 'moves'. However, such a d r a w i n g does not display how fast the
system moves along this path. It is like the map of a road on which an
automobile is travelling. The map shows how the automobile may travel,
but not how fast it moves, i f we wish to show the rate of motion of a
system in its state space (or of the automobile on the road), we must plot
the position of the system (or of the automobile) versus time. Time then
becomes (tf+l) dimension.
s1

Unfortunately, the ability to portray a curve in a ^-dimensional space

is lost when n is greater than three. The portrayal of a curve in three
dimensions is i n c o n v e n i e n t , b u t may be done either by means of a
projective d r a w i n g or by the physical construction of three-dimensional
curves, i n five or more dimensions, we have o n l y the mathematical
description, our power of imagination, and the possibility of constructing
two-dimensional projections as aids to the imagination.

1.2.5 Continuous versus Discrete State Spaces

The term 'continuous state space' implies that the state variables are
continuous, at least w i t h i n the regions of interest. A number of state
variables of interest in biology, including agriculture, are not continuous.
For example, the number of individuals in a population (whether of plant,
animals, m i c r o o r g a n i s m s , or molecules) can o n l y change by integer
amounts, in such a case, as the point that represents the system moves
through the state space, it moves in jumps rather than smoothly and
continuously. A differential equation to describe the direction and rate
of motion is not available unless the variables are continuous. However,
because the formalism is so convenient, discrete spaces are often treated
as continuous. The validity of such an approximation requires that the
sizes of the discrete jumps be small in relation to the ability w i t h which
we can or wish to measure changes in the system. To put it another way,
if the scale for which we observe the system is relative to the scale on
which the individual jumps occur, then the path of the system through
states space may appear to be continuous—just as a curve d r a w n on a
television screen appears to be continuous, even though it is composed
of many individual dots of light.
16 Modeling Crop Production Systems

1.2.6 Stochastic versus Deterministic Descriptions

In a d e t e r m i n i s t i c d e s c r i p t i o n , the b e h a v i o r of the system is

completely determined by its state and by the specified conditions. As a
result, a deterministic description of a dynamic system and its evolution
through time usually gives a description of a particular trajectory in a
state space. On the other hand, in a stochastic description, we have—for
each state that the system can be in—a distribution of probabilities on a
set of possible behaviors, i.e. on the set of possible directions and rates
of travel in the state space. The connection between deterministic and
stochastic descriptions is made on the basis of the expected or average
behavior. A l t h o u g h any real system must be considered to be subject to
a variety of uncertainties when the relative uncertainty is small compared
w i t h the need for accuracy, one may take advantage of the comparative
mathematical simplicity of the deterministic models.
In developing an explanatory model for a dynamic system, the pur­
pose is to understand how the general laws that govern the behavior of
the system arise from the laws that govern the constituent elementary
event. The v i e w point adopted is that these laws must always have a
certain degree of random or uncertain characters. This randomness has
to be taken into account unless the coefficient of variation is small, which
usually means that the density of events is very large (Gold, 1977).

1.2.6.2 Stochastic Models of Exponential Growth

The deterministic equation of exponential population g r o w t h

N = Ne
( Q
ri
(1.19)
predicts that a population w i t h a stable age distribution of an unlimited
environment w i l l increase in the shape of a smooth, exponential curve.
As pointed out by Poole (1974), although the superiority of conti­
n u o u s t i m e m o d e l s to t h e i r d i s c r e t e a p p r o x i m a t i o n s is clear,
u n f o r t u n a t e l y , in most cases they are extremely d i f f i c u l t to d e r i v e .
Discrete time a p p r o x i m a t i o n is slightly less difficult. Sometimes i t is
possible to derive a discrete time model a n d , by using the methods
discussed below, simulate the process for several time intervals. It is to
be noted, however, that in the discrete time model, the time variable t is
assumed to advance jumps of 1, although / is in reality a continuous
variable. If, as later happens, the birth rate or death rate is postulated to
be a function of time, it w i l l also be a continuous variable. The discrete
time approximation in these cases must assume the birth rate or death
rate to be constant d u r i n g a single interval of time, changing by a single
j u m p from one time interval to the next. The situation is analogous to
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 17

the discrete approximation of the percentage of the cohort alive d u r i n g

the m i d period of time interval and the fecundity of the female.
The advantage of the stochastic model over the equivalent deter­
m i n i s t i c m o d e l is its greater r e a l i t y . The greater c o m p l e x i t y of the
stochastic model, particularly in its derivation, tends in some cases to
outweigh their advantages. This is particularly true if the variance in the
number of individuals is small. There are cases, however, in which chance
deviations can push the result of a process either one way or the other.
Stochastic m o d e l s have an advantage of b e i n g more realistic than
deterministic models, predicting only what can happen and the proba­
bility of its happening, not what w i l l happen.
The methods employed to arrive at an answer using a discrete time
stochastic approximation to a continuous time situation are roughly the
same as p l a y i n g a game i n v o l v i n g chance. The expected n u m b e r is
calculated and modified by a factor representing a random sample from
the probability distribution to which the answer belongs.
The equations

denote the respected value of the p o p u l a t i o n size at t + 1, p l u s the

variance of the expected value. If the effect of chance variation is not
taken into consideration, the increase in density of a population begin
w i t h 20 individuals w i t h the parameters b = 0.52 and d = 0.48 as shown
in column 1 of Table 1.2.

T a b l e 1.2 A d e t e r m i n i s t i c a n d two s t o c h a s t i c s i m u l a t i o n s of
population growth in an u n l i m i t e d e n v i r o n m e n t
(b = 0.52, d = 0.48, N =
n 20)

T Deterministic Stochastic No. 1 Stochastic No. 2

0 20.000 20.000 20.000

1 20.816 14.641 27.129
2 21.665 18.352 32.422
3 22.549 20.381 22.832
4 23.469 21.678 18.889
5 24.426 18.159 17.287
6 25.423 25.091 10.795
7 26.460 28.838 7.478
8 27.540 23.823 10.319
9 28.663 15.339 10.012
10 29.833 17.861 15.277
18 Modeling Crop Production Systems

The calculations in column 1 are strictly deterministic. To make the

result stochastic, the following steps are taken:
1. Calculate the expected number at time t + 1 .
2. Calculate the variance of the estimate.
3. Calculate the standard d e v i a t i o n , i.e. the square root of the
variance.
4. Pick a n u m b e r at r a n d o m from a table of r a n d o m n o r m a l
deviates and m u l t i p l y it by the standard deviations.
5. A d d the answer from step 4 to the answer from step 1. This is
a possible size of the population at time / + 1.
This procedure assumes that the distribution of a possible answer is
normally distributed. In this case, the distribution of the possible answer
is approximately normal except at low population densities. It should be
emphasized, however, that the d i s t r i b u t i o n is not necessarily always
normal, e.g. it might have an exponential distribution. A n example w i t h
the parameters above is:

1. £ ( N ) = 20.816
+ 1

2. var ( N ,) = 21.232
/ f

3. Standard deviations = 4.608

4. A random normal deviates, -1.38, times the standard deviation,
4.608 = - 6.359
5. 20.816 - 6.359 = 14.457
A table of random normal deviates in Beyer (1968, as quoted in Poole,
1974) was used. A random normal deviate is a number d r a w n at random
from the standardized normal d i s t r i b u t i o n . U n l i k e r a n d o m numbers,
where each number is equally likely to occur, random normal deviates
are normally distributed. Even though the birth rate is greater than the
death rate—although they are nearly equal—a chance negative deviation
has caused the population to decrease rather than increase as expected.
The course of stochastic p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h can be simulated by
repeatedly carrying out the above calculations. For example, this stochastic
estimate of the population after the second interval of time can be arrived
at by taking 14.641 as the population density at time /, recomputing the
standard deviation, selecting another random normal deviate, and so on.
A stochastic representation of population growth for 10 intervals of time
is plotted against w i t h the deterministic result in Figure 1.4.
Because deviations are random, if this procedure were repeated then
the exact path of the g r o w t h of the population would not be the same as
it was the first time. The calculation of a second set of 10 intervals of time
is shown in column 3 of Table 1.2.
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 19

If long periods of time are involved in the simulation, as they often

are, or if large numbers of replications of the simulation are needed to
estimate the variance of the population at sometime /, the calculations
become tedious. The calculations are easily programd for a computer and
a subroutine can be used to generate random normal deviates.

Fig. 1.4 Population g r o w t h in an artificial p o p u l a t i o n w i t h parameters b - .52, d - .48 and

N — 20. Solid line, the deterministic m o d e l ; dashed Line, a M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n of
Q

the discrete t i m e stochastic m o d e l of exponential p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h .

1.2.7 Modeling

M o d e l i n g is a creation of some representation of the i m p o r t a n t

aspects of some system of interest. Modeling is an organized activity.

1.2.8 Model

Gold (1977) defined the w o r d 'model . ' M o d e l ' is used w i t h more or

7

less the same meaning as its every day meaning. A certain object (call it
object M ) is a model of another object (object S), provided the following
conditions hold:
1. There is some collection of components of M , each of w h i c h
corresponds to a component of S;
2. For certain relationships, the relation between the component of
M is analogous to that between the corresponding components
of S.
So, for e x a m p l e , the features o f a m a r i o n e t t e are i n t e n d e d to
correspond to that of human being that it models, and certain relations
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
Wrightsville National Bank. He is a member of Lodge No. 74, 1. O.
O. P., York, Penn. ABDIEL BORTNER, justice of the pea.:e, was born
March 37, 1851, son of Jesse and Mary A
 LOWEE AVINDSOR TOWNSHIP. Bortner, and is of German
descent. He was reared on the farm, and received liis education at
the public schools, afterward attending the Millersville Normal School
in 1870. He then engaged in mercantile business in Manheim
Township, near Hanover, Penn., for four years, and sold the
"Domestic" Sewing Machine for one year. In 1876 he moved to East
Prospect, built a slaughter house and engaged in the butchering
business. He also owns a house and lot in East Prospect. He was
elected justice of the peace in 1882. He served asconstable two
years, and has been school director since 1884. Mr. Bortner was
married, October 24,1870, to Anna M., daughter of Isaac and Sarah
Glatfelter, of Springfield Township. By this union they have one son,
Franklin M., born May 30, 1873. Mr. Bortner has been a member of
the Lutheran Church since 1870, and is at present a member of the
Canadochley congregation. .JOSEPH B. BUDDING, son of Levi and
Cassie Budding, of Wrightsville, Penn., was born May 6. 1854. He left
home at live years of age and lived with his uncles, Levi Kauft'et and
George KaufEet, until he grew to manhood. In 1878 he embarked in
the mercantile business at Yorkana, starting in a small room with a
rapital of $1,6U0. In 1878 he began the manufacture of cigars,
employing about ten hands, and now handles about 6,000,000
cigars annually. He also deals in leaf tobacco. In 1880 he took his
brother Jacob into partnership with him in the store. Mr. Budding
was married. October 8, 1878, to Emma J., daughter of John E. and
Maria Beard, of Lower Windsor Township. York County. This union
has been blessed with three children, of whom one son and one
daughter are living. Mr. Budding is a stockholder in the York City
Market House, and in the York Tribune Company. He was the first
postmaster at Yorkana, when that office was established in 1876.
JACOB K. BUDDING, son of Levi and Catharine Budding, of
Wrightsville, was born January 27, 18.57, is of German descent, and
was reared on the home farm. He was educated at the district
school and also attended the normal school at Millersville. In 1880
he entered into partnership with his brother, Joseph B. Budding, in
the mercantile business at Yorkana, at which point he is at present
assistant postmaster. HENRY BURG was born August 11, 1834, son
of Henry and Catherine Burg, of East Prospect. York Co., Penn. He
taught school three terms, and in 1864 engaged in the dry goods
business, which he continued six years. In 1870 he liought a farm of
100 acres near Bast Prospect, on which he erected new buildings,
and where he has since resided. Mr. Burg was school director three
terms, and was also assessor. He is a member of Winona Lodge No.
944, 1. O. O. P., of East Prospect, and also a member of the Lower
Windsor Grange Lodge No. 565, of Lower Wmdsor. October 1, 1857,
he married Rebecca, daughter of Samuel and Rebecca Gilbert, of
East Prospect. By this union they have been blessed with seven
children. Their son, Harris W., a graduate of Eastman's College,
Poughkeepsie, N. Y., has clerked three or four years, and taught
school five terms. Mr. and Mrs. Burg are members of the Evangelical
Church of East Prospect. WILLIAM BURG, son of Henry and
Catharine Burg, of Lower Windsor, was born April 8. 1836, and grew
to manhood on the homestead. In 1857 be began for himself on the
Ruby farm, on which he resided four years, and then' returned to the
homestead, where he 'remained eleven years. In 1870 he bought a
farm of 200 acres near East Prospect, put up a fine dwelling, bank-
barn and outbuildings, all modern in their plan, and a tenement
house, and then went to Marion County, Kas., where he remained
eight months, when he returned and resumed farming. He first
married Catharine Ruby, who died witJhin a year; his next marriage
was to Leah, daughter of Samuel and Rebecca Gilbert. This lady also
died; the mother of eleven children. Mr. Burg's third marriage was to
Mary, j daughter of Henry and Rebecca Gilbert, of East Prospect, and
to this union have been born five children. Mr. and Mrs. Burg are
members of the Evangelical Church at East Prospect. A. II. CRALEY.
son of. George and Julyann Craley, was born March 16, 1845, in York
Couniy, j Lower Windsor Township. He spent his youth on j the farm
and attended the public schools. August 10, 1864, he was married to
Eliza Daron ; the same year he went to Union County, Ohio, where
he spent a year farming on Darby Plains. He returned to Craleyville
in 1865, and commenced the manufacture of cigars, and
manufactures about 600,000 a year. He married, February 14. 1867.
Susan, daughter of John andMagdalena PofE, of Lower Windsor
Township. Mr. Craley again married, October 22, 1870, another
daughter of John and Magdalena Poif, named Rebecca. Mr. Craley
had only one child, a daughter, by his first wife. She is named Alice.
The two first wives are dead, and Mr. Craley and his third wife,
Rebecca, have been members of the Church of Christ since about
1874 or 1875. • Mr. Craley has been postmaster at Crayleyvjlle since
the oiBce was established at that place. "He is of German descent;
his ancestors came over as Hessians during the Revolution, and
remained. Mr. Craley engaged one year in the mercantile business;
he owns ten acres of land with fine buildings thereon. JOHN W.
DERINGER, son of John and Elizabeth (Young) Deringer, was born at
Woodstock Forge, April 25, 1847, but at the age of two years was
removed by his parents to East Prospect. At thirteen he left his home
and worked on a farm until he was eighteen years of age, when he
went to learn carpentering with P. W. Keller, with whom he remained
three years. From 1868 to 1879 he worked for his father-in-law, H.
E. Stein, of Lower Windsor^ In 1879 he quit his trade and began the
manufacture of cigars, employing about eight hands, and having
'purchased about five acres of land near Yorkana and built a house
and cigar .shop upon it. December 24, 1868, he married Jmia A.,
daugliter of H. E. and Elizabeth Stein, of Lower AVindsor. They have
adopted a daughterFlora S. Wallick. Mr. and Mrs. Deringer are
members of the Evangelical Church. Mr. Deringer joined in 1 :i68,
and since 1874 has been an exhorter; at present he is an exhorter
and steward. EMANUEL DETWILER is a son of John and Susan
Detvviler, of Lower Windsor Township. York Co.. Penn., and is of
German descent. At the age of fifteen years he began driving a team
and followed that occupation three years, after which he followed
boating on the Tide Water Canal three years; then farmed three
years, after which he engaged in mercantile business at the Five Mile
Level for a few years and then returned to the farm. He now owns
two well-improved farms in East Prospect. Mr. Detwiler also carried
on lime-burning two years. At twenty-one years of age he married
Mary, daughter of .John and Eliza Anstine, of Lower Windsor
Township. This union has been blessed with seven children, of whom
the following are living: Alice, born July .8, 1862, married to Prof.
M.'H. Seitz. of Glen Rock; Elmer Ellsworth, teacher, born .January 12,
1864; Charles Wesley, born November .80, 1865; Albert Franklin,
born March 6, 1867; John Irvin. born May 12, 1869, and Ellie
Octavia, born August 23, 1873. Mr. and Mrs. Detwiler are members
of the Evangelical Church at East Prospect, of which Mr. Detwiler was
trustee.
 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES. 139 G. W. FERREE was born
November 3, 1855, and is the son of John and Mary Ferree, of Lower
Windsor. He was reared a farmer, but at the age of twenty began the
trade of milling with Adam Bellinger, of Hellam, remained a year and
then went to AVilliam Mundis. In 1878 he engaged in the raising of
tobacco and the manufacture' of cigars; in 1879 he rented Emig's
Mill near Margaretta Furnace and is still engaged in milling. He sells
largely in Columbia and drives a good custom trade. June 31, 1877,
he married Amanda, daughter of Henry and Susan Brubaker, of
Lower Windsor. His two children are Harry, born December 13, 1878,
and Mary, born June 9, 1880. WILLIAM O. HAINES is the son of
William and Mary Haines, of York Township; was born February 26,
1833, and was reared to manhood on the farm, commencing for
himself at the age of thirtytwo, near Wrightsville, where he remained
nine years, when he removed on Daniel Leber's place, near the mill,
and there resided three years. He then rested a year, after which he
bought a farm containing sixty-four acres, remodeled the buildings
and made other improvements. In 1863 he married Catharine,
daughter of John and Eliza Anstine_, of Lower Windsor, and to this
marriage children have been born as follows: Flora E., January 28,
1865; Lorenzo D., April 23, 1868, and Charles W., a^ July 7, 1870.
Mr. and Mrs. Haines are members of the Evangelical Church at Bast
Prospect. WILLIAM A. HAINES, son of John and Elizabeth Haines, of
Lower Windsor Township, York Co.,Penn.. was born October 29,
1852. His greatgrandfather was born in Germany and came to
America at an early date. Our subject, at the age of nineteen years,
began learning the coach and wagon-making trade with Chas.
Schazberger, of East York, and served an apprenticeship of three
years. In 1874 and 1875 he was foreman for George Schleenstine, of
East Prospect, and afterward commenced business for himself at
Margaretta Furnace, where he remained two years. In 1877 he
bought a house and two lots in East Prospect, where he built a shop
and has since been doing a successful business, building stages,
sleighs, buggies.etc. October 28, 1875, he married Sallie E.,
daughter of George and Rebecca Freed, of East York. By this union
they have two children: Hattie R., born January 11, 1879, and Henry
A., born December" 39, 1881. Mr. Haines has been leader of the
Prospect,Cornet Band since its organization. JOHN W. KINARD, M.
D., son of Simon and Catherine Kinard. of Lower Windsor Township,
York County, Penn., was born at Wrightsville, Penn., February 15,
1857. His early life was spent on the farm, and attending the public
schools, and the York County Academy, after which he attended the
State Normal School, at Millersville, four terms. He began teaching
school at the a^e of seventeen, and taught two years in Lower
Windsor and two years in Hellam Township. He then began the
study of medicine under Dr. Jacob Hay, of York, and also studied
under Dr. Bigler, of Windsor. He took a course of lectures in the
University of Maryland, from which he graduated March 1, 1883. He
located at Craleyville in the spring of 1883, and built up a large
practice there. In the spring of 1884 he bought out Dr. Wiles, of East
Prospect, and has been very successful in the practice of his
profession. He vpas married, September 27, 1883, to Isabella. '
daughter of Jacob and Margaret Weidman. Dr. Kinard is a member of
the Winona Lodge, No. 944, I. O. O. F., of East Prospect. As a
surgeon, he is heroic and dexterous. December 30, 1883, he
removed a tibroid tumor from Mr. O.'s back, administering
chloroform and performing the operation unaided, which was done
in twenty-five minutes; the tumor, when removed, weighed nearly
two pounds. January 10, 1883, he removed from Miss P.'s left axilla
a carcinoma v5 tumor, which was cut therefrom In thirty minutes, he
having but the assistance of his medical student; the tumor weighed
nearly one pound; he also cut a congenital tumor, of twenty-seven
years standing, weighing five ounces, from Mrs. D.'s nose. He also
performed a number of minor amputations, all of which resulted in a
complete and rapid recovery. There are few who have made
medicine such a success as this young physician. He also took a
course of lectures in the Philadelpliia Polyclinic and College for
Graduates in Medicine, from which he graduated June 20, 1885.
SIMON P. KINARD, assistant postmaster, is the son of Simon and
Catharine Kinard, and was born November 38, 1859. He was reared
to farming
 LOWER WINDSOR TOWNSHIP. and was educated at the
common schools and at the York County Normal School at
AVrightsville, and was afterward a teacher for three terms in Lower
Windsor and one term in Spring Garden Township. April 10, 1883 he
embarked in the mercantile business at Craleyville. which he still
conducts in conjunction with the manufacture of cigars, having
added the latter in 1883, and now turning out 120,000 per year; he
also owns one acre of ground and his house and store. December
31. 1883, he married Mary, daughter of George and Elizabeth Silar,
of Lower Windsor DANIEL W. LEBER, Jr., son of Daniel and Anna
Leber, of Lower WiudsorTownship. was born July, 23, 1846, and until
nineteen years of age passed his time in attending school, and
assisting on the home farm. In 1865 began milling at River View Mill
and continued in the business about fourteen years. In the spring of
1879 he assumed charge of the old homestead, on which he still re
sides and which consists of forty-two acres, im proved with a stone
dwelling and bank-barn erected by himself and enriched with a mine
of hematite, January 1, 1874, he married Mary, daughter of John
Strickler, of Hellam Township, and by this un ion is the father of the
following children: John Flora, Nettie, Charles Lester, Elsie, Daniel
Wesley, Harry and Mary Ellen. The parents are both members of the
Evangelical Church at East Pros pect. and are of German extraction.
JOHN LEBER, son of Daniel and Anna Leber was born January 2.5,
1838, in Lower Windsor Town ship, and is of German de.scent.
Reared a farmer, in the spring of 1860 he commenced on his own ac
count on his father's place near East Prospect; he remained there
four years, then moved to another farm of 180 acres belonging to
his father near Trinity Church. June 17, 18.59, he married Anna
Louisa, daughter of Daniel and Sarah Keller, of Lower Windsor. The
children born to this marriage are Georgianna (married to Ed. Emig,
son of John Emig), Cordio, Josephine and Charles. Mr. Leber is the
owner of a fine brick dwelling house and stable on Hellam Street,
Wrightsville, and has led a prosperous life. With his wife he is a
member of the Evangelical Trinity Church. DAVID D. POFF, son of
John and Magdalene Poff. of Hellam Township, was born November
28, 1845, and is of German descent. February 16, 1864, he enlisted
in Company A,Twenty-first Pennsylvania Cavalry, and took part in all
its engagements and marches until his muster out, July 18, 1865. He
was married, November 2, 1865, to Lydia, daughter of Jacob and
Wilhelmina Howard, of Lower Windsor, and had born to him one
child; Flora Ida, June 17, 1866. Mr. Pofi is member of the I. O. O. F.
and G. A. R. ; he has filled the olfices of supervisor and school
director three years; he is a stockholder and director in the
Chauceford Turnpike Company; he has served as jurymanof the
supreme court at Philadelphia; has been three times sent to the
county convention, and has been five times on the county
committee. In 1881 he bought his present farm of fifty acres on
which he has erected fine buildings. H. H. SPRENKLE, son of .lohn
and Betsy Sprenkle, of Hellam Township, was born September 23,
1841. At an early age he started for himself by teaching two terms
of school at Dover, and one term in Lower Windsor Township. In
1871 he began milling at Hellam. and two years later moved to
Margaretta, where he followed the same business for five years. He
next engaged in the tobacco trade, first buying leaf and then
starting the manufacture of cigars. October 29, 1861, he married
Priscilla, daughter of John and Nancy Beard, of Yorkana. This lady
died April 6, 1874, the mother of five children, and her remains were
interred at Canadochley. Mr. Sprenkle's second marriage was lo Clara
A., daughter of John and Rebecca Bentz, by whom he had born to
him four children. Mr. Sprenkle is a Jeffersonian Democrat, and takes
an active interest in local politics; he has served as assessor in
Hellam Township and is a member of Winona Lodge, No. 944, I. O.
O. F., at East Prospect; his wife is a member of St. John's Episcopal
Church, York HENRY E. STEIN, son of Henry and Julia A. (Slenker)
Stein, was born September 23, 1827, and is of German descent. He
lived upon the home farm until he was eighteen years of age, when
he began the carpenter's trade with Jacob Streavig, with whom he
remained two and a half years, working one year as a journeyman.
In 1849 he began business on his own account, and since that time
has erected about 175 churches, dwellings, barns, etc. In 1849, also,
he married Elizabeth, daughter of Elizabeth and Jacob Gohn, of
Lower Windsor. To this union have been born four daughters and
one son, viz.: Julia A., wife of J. W. Deringer. of Yorkana; Mary, wife
of Henry May, same place; Eliza Jane, William H. and Amanda. Mr.
Stein owns about ten acres of land, on which he has erected a fine
dwelling and other buildings. He has served as township auditor and
also as trustee of the Evangelical Church, of which, with his wife, he
is still a member. JACOB R. WALLACE. Esq., second son of Jacob and
Susan Wallace, of Windsor Township, York Co., Penn., was born
February 28, 1833. His early life was spent on the farm, after which
he worked at the carpenter's trade two years. He then attended
Millersville Normal School two years, also a select school in York,
Penn., and in 1859 attended school at Cottage Hill. He taught school
twentyfive terms: one term in Lancaster County, Penn., in 1874;
sixteen terms in East Prospect, Penn., and eight terms in Lower
Windsor Township. During the cummers of 1874 and 1875 he also
taught a select school, to prepare teachers, witli M. J. Blessing as
assistant. He was for ten years captain of a boat on the Tide Water
Canal. In 1860 he was assessor in Windsor Township, in 1864 in
Lower Windsor Township, and in 1883 in East Prospect Borough. He
took the enrollment in Windsor Township in 1861, and the census of
Windsor, Lower Windsor and East Prospect in 1870. In 1858 he was
elected justice of the peace in Windsor Township, but declined to
serve; and in 1874 was elected to the same ofllce in East Prospect
Borough, and re-elected in 1879 and 1884. He is a surveyor and
conveyancer, is director of the Loan and Building Association of
Frystown, and agent for the York. Spring Garden and Dallastown
Insurance Companies. He is a Republican, was a candidate for
auditor and was a delegate to the State convention, nominating H.
M. Hoyt, for governor. He was treasurer for the County institute for
nine or ten years, and four years a member of the committee on
permanent certificates. He has been secretary for the town council
of the borough of East Prospect since the spring of 1875, and is
secretary of the school board of East Prospect. In 1857 he married
Susan, daughter of William and Magdalena Sprenkle, of Chanceford
Township, and by this union they have two children: Linnie A., born
October 30, 1863, and Florence Eugenia, born October 18, 1868. Mr.
Wallace is a member of Winona Lodge No. 944, I. O. O. F., of East
Prospect.
 BIUGRAPinCAL SKETCHES131 MANCHESTER TOWNSHIP.
REV. ISAA.C H. ALBRIGHT, A. M., was bora in Cumberland County,
Penn., April 9, 1853. His parents were Michael and Fannie
(Huntsberger) Albright, who were of German descent. They had
three sons and one daughter — Isaac H., being the eldest. Until his
nineteenth year he remained on the farm, studying at public and
preparatory schools, leaching school one term himself before
entering college. In 1873 he entered Lebanon Valley College, Penn.,
and graduated in 1876 as A. B. He pursued his studies under private
instructors for two years, especially in the study of German and
Hebrew languages, and was made A. M. in 1879. He entered college
with a view to medicine, but being converted he changed his mind
and sttidied for the ministry. His first charge was at Manheim,
Lancaster County, where he remained three years, from 1876 to
1879. Prom there he went to Spring Garden, Lancaster County,
where he stayed three years, and in the spring of 1883 came to
Mount Wolf, where he had charge of six congregations — Mount
Wolf, Manchester, Emigsville and others, all In York County; stayed
there three years. From there he went to Yorli, to the first United
Brethren Charch, where he is pastor now. He was married, February
15, 1873, in Dauphin County, Penn., to Kate H., daughter of George
and Mary Uhler. To thi-j union three cliildren were born: John W.,
Mary Bertha and George Henry. Rev. Albright belongs to the United
Brethren Cliurch, and during his ministry 35u members have been
added. He conducts services in the German and English languages.
Besides attending to his pastoral duties. Rev. Albright also teaches
instrumental and vocal music. HENRY ALTLAND was born in
Manchester Township, October 7, 1849. His parents are John and
Mary Magdalena (Stoughl) Altland, natives of Dover Township, and
of German descent. They had two sons and one daughter, of whom
Henry is the youngest son. In his youth he learned the trade of
blacksmithing with his father, but abandoned it when he became of
age. He attended the public schools, York County Academy and
Guntzler's Commercial College. When lie became of age he
commenced to teach in the public schools, and taught about twelve
years. In 1876 he took the secretaryship of the Dover Mutual Fire
Insurance Company, of York County, which office he still holds-
March 17, 1873, he was married at York to Louise Lehr. of
Manchester Township, daughter of Charles B. Leiir. They have five
chillreu: Kurvin Wilson, Walter Grant, Mabel Alberla, Oscar Henry
and Park Caleb Wogan. Mr. Altland is a Lutlieran. belongs to the Red
Men of York, lia-: held various township ofiices, was electrd justice of
the peace in 1875, and since. He is an active Republican and quite a
political speaker. His father died in 1883, but his mother, now sixty-
five years of age, is still living. SAMUEL L. BAHN, farmer »dnd
auctioneer, was born in Spring Garden Township, December 3, 1830.
His parents, Adam and Mary (Liebhart) Bahn, were natives of Spring
Garden and Hellam Townships, respectively, and of German deseenl.
He is the sixth child and third son of a family of ten children. After
attending the schools of his native place he began the occupation of
farming (and auctioneering in 1850) wliich he still pursues. He is a
member of the Evangelical Association, was many years a class
leader and for twenty years a steward in that denomination. Since
1883 he has been an exhorter In the Emigsville Chapel, and has
been superintendent of the Union Sunday-school for nearly a quarter
of a century. In May;, 1847, he was commissioned first lieutenant of
the Sixth Company, Third Regiment First Brigade of the Pennsylvania
Militia, by Gen. Daniel A. Stillinger, and served until the militia was
disbanded. Was once elected assistant assessor, and twice judge of
elections of Manchester Township, and is' a stockholder in the York
City Market and Gettysburgh Turnpike Company. In 1875 he
removed from his farm in Conewago Township to his present home
on a tract of twenty-three acres, beautifully located, and in addition
to the work of attending it, is representing the Farmers Mutual
Insurance Company of York, and for several years the Conewago &'
Dover Insurance Company. Mr. Bahn was married in York, December
5, 1841, to Susan Tyson, daughter of Daniel Tyson, of Spring
Garden. They have had ten children: Amanda, Susan, Mary A.,
Daniel T.. John A., Samuel F-, Frederic M., George W., William H. N.
and Elmer E. SAMUEL P. BAHN, son of S. L. and Susan. (Tyson)
Bahn, sixth of ten children, was bornOctober 3, 1853, was reared on
his father's farm; went to his trade of miller when about eighteen
years of age. at Menges' Mills, at which he worked four years at
Meyer's Mills; then took charge as manager of George Small's farm
near YorkOctober 3, 1873, Mr. Balm married Amanda Stair, daughter
of George and Catherine (Merchandall) Stair, of Manchester
Township. Their marriage was blest with four children: William H.,
Edward P., HettieMay and Sarah S. Mr. Bahn is engaged in trucli and
flower business, is also agent for fruit trees; is extensively engaged
in the poultry business. His exhibit ot all kinds of fancy and rare
fowls for years at York County and Lancaster County fairs is well
known to the people. GEORGE W. BARNHART is the son of Elijah-,
and Margaret Barnhart, ot York County, and was . born January 16,
1858. He was reared a farmer, but afterward learned milling and
began the latter ^ business on his own account in 1881, on the
Codorus^, at Rudy's Mill, subsequently removing to WoU'sJ Mill,
near Mt. Wolf. November 30, 1880, he mar-ried Ellen E., daughter of
Levi and Mary Becker, of Jackson Township, the result of the union
being four children: L. Nevin, Vertie (deceased), Daisey and Mabel
Matilda. Mr. Barnhart has been a member of the American
Mechanics' Association and is an adherent of the Lutheran Church.
HENRY S. BEAR, justice of the peace, was. born in Conewago
Township, York Co., Penn.„ May 6, 1835. His parents, Jacob S. and
Elizabeth (Stover) Bear, were natives of York County, and of German
descent. They reared three sons and three daughters, of whom
Henry S. is the eldest. Until the age of seventeen, he lived on the
farm and enjoyed a common school education; after that he taught
school about eight years. Novemibcr II, 1851. he was married in
Manchester Township, to Elizabeth Lichtenlierger, who died June 19,
1874. They had twelve children, two of whom died before their
mother: George E.,agednine, and AnnieK., aged four and a half
years. One, Clara Ann^ the wife of Eli Gross, died in 1877. The
remain-^ ing nine are Stephen A., merchant: Charles H., merchant;
Elizabeth, teacher in Illinois; Mary Margaret, wife of W. H.
Kauflfman; Sallie Frances, who is still at home; Willie Lincoln,
teacher:. Fannie Leah, at home; Carrie Irene, at home and! Jennie
Laura. Our subject; was next marriedi December 3, 1883. in
Manchester Borough, to Adaline Schriner, widow of John Schriner,
ajid daughter of Henry Frank, and a native of Lancaster County,
Penn. Henry S. and his wife belong to the Lutheran Church. He came
to Manchester Township in 1871, where he engaged in
merchandising
 133 MANCHESTER TOWNSHIP. for five years. Since that,
time he has been engaged in conveyancing, surveying and
insurance. He also held the office of school director in Conewago
Township for about six years, and that of justice of the peace about
twelve years. In the spring of 1884 he was re-elected justice of the
peace of Manchester. In politics, he is an active Republican.
STEPHEN A. BEAR, born in Conewago Township. April 24, 1853, is
the eldest son of Henry S. and Elizabeth (Lichtenberger) Bear, of
York County. His parents removed to Manchester Borough when he
was seventeen years of age. He was educated in the common
schools, supplemented by a two-years' course of the State Normal
School at Millersville. He taught two terms in the public schools at
Conewago and Manchester Townships. He worked on the farm when
a boy, but began clerking at Manchester when the family moved
there, and clerked altogether about six years for different
merchants. He was married at Manchester Borough, February 39,
1880, to Amanda J. Warner, daughter of D. Warner, Esq., contractor
and native of Manchester. They have had three children: Carrie
Irene, Elizabeth and Charles Henry. July, 1883, in partnership with
his brother, Charles H., he purchased C. H. Bishop's mercantile
business in Manchester, and has since carried on the leading
business in general merchandise at this place. Since April, 1883, he
has been postmaster of Manchester. He is a Republican and has
served one term as borough treasurer. He is a | stockholder in the
Drovers and Stockholders National Bank of York. He is a district
president of the P. O. S. of A., and has held all the offices in I order.
He devotes all his time to his store at Man- ' Chester, while his
brother is employed as clerk in a large dry goods house in York.
DAVID BENTZEL is the si-Nith of ten children of David and Elizabeth
(Meisenhelder) Bentzel, and was born May 3, 1815, in Dover
Township, on the Benlzel homestead, now occupied by Samuel
Bentzel. David received a limited education, and went to his trade of
miller September, 1834, at his present location. In 1850 he went to
Illinois, and worked at Big Thunder Mill, in Boone County, seven
months. He then returned home to his present ' mill, where he has
since remained. He married, April 3, 1843, Sarah Bisenhart,
daughter of John and Catherine (Myers) Eisenhart, of Dover
Township. Six children were born to their union: Henry D.. died in
California; Edward D., David : E., Leah (deceased), Nancy, wife of
Henry W. Jacobs; Catherine, wife of Peter Binder. Subject's
grandfather and grandmother came from Germany I —landed at
Baltimore, and came soon to Dover Township. Subject's uncles and
aunts are Henry Bentzel, Elizabeth (deceased). Catherine, wife of j
John Ailman; Barbara, wife of John Kump; Mary, deceased. Subject
was director of the poor in ' 1868-69-70. David E. Bentzel is engaged
in the ' manufacture of cigar boxes, and has twelve hands constantly
employed in his factory, which is known as the Eureka Cigar Box
Factory. He ships to Laicaster and Adams Counties, besides those he
' sells to York County. He commenced here in Oc- ' tober, 1884, with
a capacity of 400, and has since in- i creased to 1,500 per day. David
E. was married, August 13, 1877, to Louisa E. Stough, daughter of
Valentine and Blenora (Fissel) Stough. The following named children
were born to their union: I B. Frank, James Simpson, Africa, David V.
(deceased), Felix S. S. and Annie Amanda. Mr. Bentzel is an active
business man, and belongs to the t Lutheran Church of Dover
(Strayer's). He was enumerator of the census in Dover Townshin in
1880. ^ DR. CHARLES H. BISHOP (deceased), was a son of Charles
and Elizabeth Bishop, natives of the ' eastern shore of Maryland,
where the Doctor was born, April 19, 1813. He came to York Haven
with his parents when a small boy, there went to school, and
embarked in the mercantile business, when a very young man,
taking his father's store in Manchester Borough. After several years
in the mercantile business, he began to read medicine, and attended
lectures at Philadelphia, and graduated there. He began practice at
the village of Manchester, where he continued in his chosen
profession for thirty years. Dr. Bisliop died on May 38, 1875. His
widow still lives in Manchester. Her maiden name was Anna Frey.
daughter of Frederick and Margaret (Kissinger) Frey, of Spring
Garden Township. To this marriage one child was born — Charles
Halleck. Dr. Bishop was one of the leading and most influential men
of his section of the county. He bad a large and lucrative practice,
and was held in high esteem as a conscientious physician. JOHNG.
DIEHLwasbornin Manchester Township, June 13, 1851. is the third
son in a family of three sons and one daughter. His parents, Charles
H. and Sarah (Gross) Diehl, natives of York County, were of German
descent. He was reared on a farm until he was fifteen years of age,
and educated at New Berlin Academy. After teaching school a ' few
months, he began cigar-making at the age of nineteen, followed the
business a short time, and then learned painting, which he followed
off and on for eight years, and clerked a few months for G. H. Wolf
at Mount Wolf, where he has resided since 1870. He was married in
Mount Wolf, December 26, 1873, to Elizabeth, daughter of Samuel
Dietz, and a native of York County. Two children— Minnie and
George— resulted from this union. In June, 1884. Mr. Diehl formed a
partnership with Israel Finfrock in the manufacture of fancy and
common cigars. He is a member of the United Brethren Church; is a
stockholder in Dover Fire Insurance Company, and has served one
term as assessor of Manchester Township. JACOB DOLL, born in
Spring Garden Town ship. May 34, 1851, is the eldest of three
children of Henry and Susanna (Dissenberger) Doll, natives of York
County, and an old Pennsylvania family. He spent the first twenty-six
years of his life on the farm, and received a good education. He was
married at York, Penn.. May 11, 1875, to Anna C. Coleman, a native
of New Holland, Penn., and a daughter of Matthias Coleman
(deceased lumber dealer), and has had four children, of which
number two are dead: John Albert, died at the age of three months,
and George Henry, died at the age of ten months. The living are
Lillie Mary and Susie. From 1877 to 1879, our subject was an invalid.
In 1879 he began the manufacture of cigars at his father's house,
near Starview. from which he removed in the spring of 1880, to New
Holland, where he has since carried on the same business,
employing eight hands, and has also a factory at Starview,
employing four hands. He makes about 700,000 cigars per year. He
is something of a German scholar, but devotes his whole time to the
manufacture of cigars. JOHN DRAYER, retired merchant, is a son of
Jacob and Catherine (Cockley) Drayer, who were parents of seven
children, four now living: Susanna, Henry, John and Mary; three
deceased: Jesse, Eliza and Elizabeth. He was reared on the farm,
and when old enough began learning the tailor's trade in Frystown.
In 1844 he engaged in general merchandising, in connection with
tailoring in Manchester. He was appointed postmaster by President
James K. Polk, and afterward received the appointment for the same
office from James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson. December 34
1848, he married Sarah Frey, daughter of Samuel and Annie
(Kissinger) Frey, of :Spring Garden
 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES. 133 Township. To tliis union
were born nine children; Annie, David C, Charles P., Samuel M., Sallie
A., "Willie P., Flora J. and Ella M. Mr. Drayer is a member of the I. O.
O. P., and attends the Lutheran Church. The family name was
originally spelled Dreher. MARTIN LUTHER DUHLING, justice of the
peace, was born in Manchester Township, April 9, 1820. His father
was Martin Duhling, a native of England, and his mother, Barbara
Quickel, born in York County. Until his fifteenth year, our subject
remained on the farm, and then learned the pottery trade, which he
followed twenty years. He was educated at the public schools, and
at seventeen years began teaching, and taught tliirty-two winters in
Yox-k County. At twenty-one years of age he married Elizabeth A.
Bentz, daugl"iter of John Bentz, of Manchester. They had seven
children, four of whom are now living: William H., of York, now of
Edgar, Clay Co., Neb.; Sarah Catherine, wife of George Mathias, of
New Cumberland; Emma S., wife of Stephen Copenhefer, miller, at
Hellam, and Lillian Jane, at home. The three who died were John
Clay, thirteen years; Annie, two years; Maria, wife of H. M. Everhart,
twenty-six years. Mr. Duhling formerly belonged to the Lutheran
Church, but left it in f868 to connect himself with the United
Brethren Church, in which he is assistant class leader. Since 1870 be
lias been secretary of the Quarterly Conference. In 1844 he was
captain of the militia of Hellam District. He was a member of the
Manchester Borough Council in 1880, and in 1884 again elected for
three years, and has been secretary of the council for ten years.
Being elected justice of the peace of Manchester Township in 1863,
he has held that office nearly twenty-two years Since 1857 he has
also been engaged in butchering, and with the exception of ten
years has followed It ever since. He attends also to surveying and
conveyancing. August 23, 1864, he enlisted in Company D. Two
Hundredth Regiment Pennsylvania Volunteers, and served until the
end of the war. When the regiment was properly organized, he was
elected first lieutenant, while his son was elected captain. His
company served in the Army of the Potomac, and participated in the
battles in front of Petersburg. At Fort Steadman he was wounded by
a piece of shell striking him in the left leg; he lay in the hospital
about eight days, but could not do any duty for fifteen days. The
company was raised by him and his son, and it was his express wish
that his son should be its captain. It left Harrisburg with 104 men,
and returned with only seventy. In politics Mr. Duhling is a
Republican. In 1870 he took the census for Manchester Township
and Borough, and from 1860 to 1866 he was postmaster at
Manchester. His children, with the exception of the youngest, have
all been teachers in the public schools. W. H. EISENHART, son of
Adam and Leah (Forry) Eisenhart, was born in Manchester Township.
York Co., Penn., April 6, 1840. His ancestors, the Eisenharts, were
among the earliest settlers in this county. He was married.
November, 1860, to Helena Schriver, daughter of Daniel and
Catherine (Schriver) Schriver, of this township. By this union they
have been ble.ssed with two children: Flora K. and Emma J. Mr.
Eisenhart is a member of the Lutheran Church. DR. HERMAN
ANDREW EISENHART, of Manchester Township, was born January
25, 1843. and is a son of Dr. Adam and Leah (Forry) Eisenhart.
natives of the same township, who had a family of eleven sons and
three daughters, of whom our subject is the second son and fourth
child. His grandfather, Dr. George Eisenhart, emigrated from
Germany in the early history of our county, and ocated in the
present limits of West Manchester. From him descended the
numerous families of Eisenharts, most of whom reside in York
County. The subject of this sketch was brought up on his father's
farm, at the same time attended the public schools. At the age of
nineteen he began the study of medicine in the office of his father,
and at the age of twenty-nine, upon the death of his father,
succeeded to the practice, which he still retains. August 19, 1864, he
enlisted at York, in Company H, Two Hundredth Regiment
Pennsylvania Volunteers, and was honorably discharged with his
regiment, May 30, 1865, at Alexandria, Va. He participated in the
battle in front of Petersburg and the first and second attack on Fort
Steadman. After the war he returned home and resumed his medical
practice at his present home,* three and a half miles north of York.
He married Rebecca Hamme, a native of York County, October 14,
1866. They have eight children: Lillie Cora, William McCall, Harvey
G., Adam, Kurvin C, Annie Kate, Herman A. and Howard Filmore. Dr.
Eisenhart is a member of the Lutheran Church, is a Republican, in
politics, and served one term as school director. , In addition to his
medical practice the Doctor pursues farming, a part of his lime, as a
healthy recreation. His father died in 1872, aged sixty-two years,
and his mother in 1882 at the same age. SOLOMON EISENHUR was
born in Conewago Township, August la, 1834. His parents were
George and Magdalena (Wire) Eisenhui', of Pennsylvania, but of
German descent, who reared a family of nine sons and eight
daughters, of whom Solomon was the thirteenth child. He remained
on the farm up to his manhood, and has followed farming ever
since. His education he received at public schools. At the age of
twenty-three he was married, in Minnesota, to Sarah Wilhelm, of
Manchester Township, and a daughter of John Wilhelm. She bore
him eleven children, one died in infancy: Frances, wife of Jacob
Lauiz; Ida Belle, wife of Jacob Bair; James, a farmer; Delia, Laura,
Wesley, Charles, Minnie, Eli and William H. Mr. Eisenhur is one of the
deacons of the United Brethren Church, and also vice-president of
the Sabbathschool. He is also a member of the Easton Building
Association at York. In politics he is a Republican. While in
Shakopee, Minn., he enlisted, in 1863, in Company A, Fourth
Minnesota Volunteer Infantry, and served one year's term of
enlistment. With his command he was in the campaign along the
Mississippi Rivei', in the battle of luka. Miss., and at Corinth. In 1863
he returned to Pennsylvania, and lived three years at AVilliamsport,
where he was engaged in the planing-mill. From there he moved to
Manchester Township, and now lives on his fine farm of eighty-five
acres. JOHN EMIG, Jk , was born April 4, 1813. in Manchester
Township, and died December 24, 1883. His parents were John and
Anna Mary (Smyser) Emig, natives of West Manchester Township,
and of German ancestry. They had four sons and one daughter, of
whom John, Jr., was the third son. H( grew up on the farm of his
father, which had come into the hands of his grandfather in 1803,
and into his father's hands in 1806, and became his property in
1840, but in 1876 passed into the hands of William H. Emig, eldest
son of John, Jr. The subject of this sketch was educated at the
subscription schools of his neighborhood. He was married, Octoljer
3. 1838, near Prospect, in Lower Windsor, to Ellen S. Knisely,
daughter of John Kuisely, of German descent. They had eleven-
children, one of whom, Amanda, died, aged about three j^ears. The
others are Louisa; William, a farmer; Ellen, wife of M. W, Bahn, at
New Freedom; Mary Jane, a teacher in select schools; J. Albert,
Emma, Alice, Flora A., Belle L. and Edward K., farmer and
manufacturer. They belong to the Reformed Church. In 1840 he
 184 MANCHESTER TOAVNSHIP. began the lime burning
business, and was tlie first to engage in that business in liis vicinity.
In 1849 tlie Nortliern Central Railroad was run through his farm, and
at once established a station there, which is known as Emigsville.
The farm contained about 300 acres, and came into his hands from
his father by his paying .|500 in installments. He built about ■eleven
houses in Manchester Township, had owned seven farms, and at his
death owned three tine farms. The largest portion of his property
was acquired by his own industry. In 1850 he engaged in a building
scheme at Baltimore, and erected about ten tine dwelling houses
and two warehouses, and at liis death owned six of these dwellings.
He was one of tlje few men in his neighborhood favoring public
schools. So bitter was the opposition that he, with a few others, was
compelled to guard the schoolhouse of his neighborhood from
destruction. He was a school director for six years, and always toolv
an active part in education. He was a leading inan in tlie erection of
the first chapel, and gave the ground upon which it was built. He
laid out the town of New Freedom in 1868, and gave the ground on
which two churches were erected (Methodist Episcopal and
Reformed). The latter was first .given to the Baptists, who sold It to
the Reformers. He began the mercantile business about the time the
railroad passed tlirough, and. with the exception of a few years, was
interested in the house as a partner or sole owner up to 1874, when
his son, John Albert, became owner. He was agent for the railroad
company up to one year before his death, also postmaster from the
establishment of the office until 1880. J. Albert Emig, born August 9,
1849, was reared on the farm at Emigsville. He received his
education in tlie public schools, and at York County Academy, and at
Millersville Normal School. He entered his father's store at Emigsville,
and assisted as clerk until 1874, when he bought the store. He was
married in Windsor Township, March 19, 1874, to Ella S. Detwiller,
daughter of John Detwiller They had two children: Carrie D. and
John W. He is head of the firm of Emig & Gable, Manchester, and E.
K. Emig & Co., manufacturers of wagons and agriculiural
implements, at Emigsville, and flour and feed store and wagon depot
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