1.

Article

Environmental Pressures at Dirre

Sheikh Hussein Sanctuary

Habtamu Gizawu Tola and Peter Brimblecombe

https://doi.org/10.3390/heritage5030139
 heritage

Article
Environmental Pressures at Dirre Sheikh Hussein Sanctuary
Habtamu Gizawu Tola 1,2 and Peter Brimblecombe 3,4, *

1 Wako-Gutu Foundation, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 11821, Ethiopia

2 Heritage Management Organization, 105 52 Athens, Greece
3 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
4 Department of Marine Environment and Engineering, National Sun Yat-sen University,
Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan
* Correspondence: [email protected]

Abstract: Dirre Sheikh Hussein is a religious complex in Ethiopia that dates from the 12th century or
earlier. An important focus for pilgrimage, it lies in an isolated part of Oromia State on poorly drained
semi-arid lowlands. Significant architecturally and culturally, recent expansion and refurbishment
of the major buildings led to structural issues, though these are now largely overcome through
consolidation of the prayer hall roof, laying a stone walkway, digging drainage ditches etc. Current
deterioration of the buildings can be seen as: (i) fading of colours, (ii) cracks in walls, roofs, and
festive places, (iii) deposits of sand around walls and (iv) staining and drainage marks on the white
painted surfaces. Heavy falls of rain overwhelm drainage and overfill storage pools. Meteorological
observations are infrequent locally, so those made some 70–100 km away were used, along with
regridded historical data, reanalysis and CMIP6 projections. These revealed increases in temperature,
precipitation and humidity, and provided indications of long-term climate pressures at the site.
Changing patterns of future precipitation, particularly heavy rain, may threaten the site. The relative
humidity changes are small, though an increasing Scheffer index suggests potentially enhanced wood
decay. Changes in soil moisture have the potential to disrupt the foundations. Very hot days may
become a problem for the two annual celebrations at the site.

Citation: Tola, H.G.; Brimblecombe, P. Keywords: climate change; drought; Ethiopia; heavy rain; mosque; sacred ponds; soil moisture
Environmental Pressures at Dirre
Sheikh Hussein Sanctuary. Heritage
2022, 5, 2661–2672. https://doi.org/
10.3390/heritage5030139 1. Introduction
Academic Editor: Andrea Macchia A changing climate places particular pressures on built cultural heritage as shown in
the now classic UNESCO Report 22 Climate Change and World Heritage (https://whc.unesco.
Received: 31 August 2022
org/en/series/22/—accessed on 31 August 2022). Such concerns are apparent at Dirre
Accepted: 9 September 2022
Sheikh Hussein [1], set in semi-arid lowlands on a poorly drained landscape of clay and
Published: 13 September 2022
sandy and clay-loam soils, lightly covered by bushes and trees. The site lies in a remote part
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral of the East Bale Zone of the Oromia region ~610 km from Addis Ababa. The Islamic saint
with regard to jurisdictional claims in Sheikh Nur Hussein founded the religious complex in the 12th century (though perhaps as
published maps and institutional affil- early as the 10th century [2]) as part of his crucial role as a Muslim missionary, spreading
iations. Islam among Arsi Oromo people of southern Ethiopia. The tangible heritage at Dirre
Sheikh Hussein is in a region susceptible to environmental change. Recurrent drought, a
feature of Ethiopian climate over the last half century, has taken its toll on agriculture and
human subsistence; heritage has suffered likewise.
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. 1.1. Cultural Site
This article is an open access article
The religious importance of Dirre Sheikh Hussein (Figure 1; Supplementary Figure
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
S1) dates from the 10th or 12th century. It has been a place of pilgrimage, especially to
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
celebrate the birthday of Sheikh Hussein (Zara) in January and the great feast and the end
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ of the Muslim year (Hajji). More than 200 000 people gather here twice a year to participate
4.0/). in these festivals; followers arrive from different regions of the country, reflecting the ideals

Heritage 2022, 5, 2661–2672. https://doi.org/10.3390/heritage5030139 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/heritage

Heritage 2022, 5 2662

of tolerance and diversity [3,4], although this is not without concerns over extremism [5].
The complete site has an area >19,000 ha, which includes a core zone of 880 ha. It has long
been a centre of Islamic learning and religious culture for southern Ethiopia; a place where
people can express a mixture of Islamic and traditional beliefs (muda), particularly during
the annual religious festivals. Adventurous international travellers have long made their
way to the remote shrine [6], though now improved roads should allow the growth of
sustainable tourism.

Figure 1. (a) Photograph of walls of the shrines at Dirre Sheikh Hussein in the 1890s by F. Gillett,
somewhat retouched when published in Through Unknown African Countries [6] and (b) a photograph
from a similar position taken in 2010 [7] that hints at more carefully plastered walls.

toric buildings
There are 11are within the
important shrine’s walled
structures compound
associated withsacred
with the 12 gates [1,2].
zone. The Zuqtum
Many of the historic
buildings are within the shrine’s walled compound with 12 gates [1,2]. The Zuqtum
Mosque is the oldest building standing in the sanctuary. It was built by Nur Sheikh Hussein
and his students a millennium ago. Four other substantial mosques date from the 18th
and 19th centuries. There are five major tombs at Dirre Sheikh Hussein, in memory of:
(i) Sheikh Hussein (the biggest Tomb), (ii) Abdulqadir Jeylan, a relative, (iii) Sh/Ibrahim,
(iv) Aymakide (mother of Sheikh Hussein) and (v) Muhammed Amisk. There are ancient
trees (Jajjaba, Wadessa, Oda, etc.) inside the walled compound. Additionally, there are stone
fences that secure the site. These are painted each year, particularly through the effort of
local women. Water harvesting ponds, along with stone bunds on the upper stream, prevent
excessive erosion. The largest pond, known as Haru Luku, was built by Sheikh Hussein,
and there are two other ponds that date from the 19th and 20th century. Additionally there
are festive places, ceremonial yards, natural forests and landscapes which are historically
associated with human settlement. The library (currently non-functioning) stores some
religious books. There are a range of cultural objects needing storage, e.g., Ulee Sheikh
Hussein (Y-shaped sticks), Qulu (cup made from a gourd), Dibbee (musical instrument made
from a local tree), cultural clothes, etc. (detailed in Supplementary Table S1). About 5 km
off, there is a cave known as Ayinagegn, which was a dwelling place of Sheikh Hussein
and now a sacred place.
The sanctuary of Dirre Sheikh Hussein has become associated with environmental
protection and natural resource conservation values. It reveals indigenous knowledge and
community skills in conservation through mechanisms that were evident at the site from
the period of Sheikh Hussein, such as water harvesting in Haro Luku, where collected
rainwater mitigated water shortages. An intergenerational appreciation of the approach is
seen in four additional ponds built during the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries. Traditional
laws and regulations governing the site have strictly prohibited felling trees, so as to
conserve the resource and promote ecological resilience; public meetings and community
dialogues take place in the shade of the larger trees.
The East Bale Zone Culture and Tourism Office is responsible for managing and con-
serving the Dirre Sheikh Hussein Cultural Heritage Site at a local level. There is a growing
belief in the importance of promoting tourism in Ethiopia, especially religious tourism [8],
although in the East Bale Zone there is much concern about a lack of infrastructure, poor
Heritage 2022, 5 2663

governance, limited financial support and human resources [8]. Stakeholders may seem
passive [9], but the local community has a positive attitude towards the shrine [10]. There
may have been a decline in the number making the pilgrimage to the shrine in recent
decades, because of the increasing influence of Salafism [11,12].

1.2. Structure and Condition

There are useful early descriptions of the site and its ceremonial use [6]. Buildings
are typically of dry jointed limestone, the masonry bonded with a lime and mud mortar,
both on the outside and inside, and a compacted earthen floor. The roof is rip-rapped with
timber beams (from indigenous trees) and topped by layers of limestone and lime water
proofing. The buildings are repainted twice a year during the festive events, using a white
ash (much admired by Donaldson Smith [6]) laboriously prepared from local materials.
Tallow, made from cattle fat, is used on the timber beams to give them strength. The
hereditary guardians, known as the darga, are responsible for security and maintaining
law and order at the sanctuary, digging and maintaining water ponds and providing
hospitality and care for the pilgrims [1,5]. These activities, along with a local community
that recognises the significance of the shrine, account for a reasonable state of preservation,
compared with some other places in Ethiopia [10].
Recent interventions and refurbishment have not always been positive. In 2002, a
cement concrete floor was added atop the existing earth floor of the Zuqtum Mosque and
its surroundings. This detracted from the authenticity and placed the structure at risk,
so the cement floor was subsequently removed and replaced with stone flags. However,
the demolition process caused cracks in the pillars and walls, such that one side bulged
outwards, endangering stability and necessitating repairs. The US Ambassador’s Fund for
Cultural Preservation supported restoration at the site from 2006, which led to consolidation
of the prayer hall roof, laying a stone walkway, digging drainage ditches and adding long
stone seats to a festive space. Additionally, cracked pillars were repaired and painted and
crazed plaster restored [1].
There are a range of deterioration processes currently evident in the buildings, al-
though they are likely to occur more slowly than the effects of modern interventions.
Current concerns form part of a recent internal report to the Wako Gutu Foundation in
2022. Observations included concern over: (i) faded colours on the building, (ii) damage to
structure of the shrines, mosque, fencing, (ii) cracks in walls, roofs and festive places as a
result of extreme drying and changes in soil moisture (iii) deposits of sand in and around
the buildings, (iv) siltation which has especially affected traditional water harvesting ponds,
(v) deterioration of cultural objects that are symbols of identity and part of the religious
and ceremonial practices, (vi) staining of walls with butter and blood and (vii) drainage
patterns of rainfall across white painted surfaces. In addition, there is a broader need for
enhanced infrastructure if the site is to continue welcoming large numbers of pilgrims and
an increasing flow of tourists [1].

1.3. Environment and Climate

The shrine of Sheikh Hussein is in south-eastern Ethiopia in the Bale Zone of the
Oromia Region (7.750◦ N and 40.700◦ E) at an elevation of 1386 m. It lies at the boundaries of
savannah and hot semi-arid climates as Köppen AW and BSh (Figure 2). The climate of these
regions of Ethiopia often seems dominated by periods of drought [13–15]. Contemporary
meteorological observations from the village of Dirre Sheikh Hussein are sparse, so there
are many gaps in our knowledge of its environment.
Heritage 2022, 5 2664

Figure 2. Map of Ethiopia with locations mentioned in the text sites along with Köppen classification
of climate. Am, tropical monsoon climate; Aw, tropical wet and dry climate; BWh, hot desert climate;
BSh, hot semi-arid climate; Cwa monsoon-influenced humid subtropical climate; Cwb, subtropical
highland climate. Adapted from Adam Peterson’s map of Köppen climates of E
highland climate. Adapted from Adam Peterson’s map of Köppen climates of Ethiopia. Inset shows
Africa, with Ethiopia in black.

Studies of climate change in the region have often focused on agricultural impacts,
particularly through rainfall and soil moisture changes [16]. It is likely that higher precipita-
“inade-
tion in the middle of future years might conceal an overall insufficiency. With “inadequate
water availability to satisfy the crop water demand, the growth of crops would be affected
affected especially in the early and development stages” [13], especially with an expansion
especially in the early and development stages” [13], especially with an expansion of crop-
land and a reduction of forest cover, which is likely to affect river basin hydrology. The
broader zone of lands associated with Dirre Sheikh Hussein is rich in medicinal plants used
by local people, so its environment represents an important subject for further research
and conservation [17]. Fortunately, there has been a long tradition of ecological protection
around the site: “Every ruin,“Every ruin,tree,
rock, cleft, rock, cleft,ponds,
water tree, water
forest,ponds,
wildlifeforest, wildlife
is imbued withis
mythical significance and believed to be [an] abode of spirits” [1]. spirits”
This study examines the changing environment and climate in a region where the
monumental heritage seems at risk and characterises likely threats. Studies on the impact of
climate change on heritage in Africa are relatively rare despite the potential threats that tan-
gible heritage here may face from climate change and other environmental pressures [18,19].
This study combines observations from the site with those of the current environment and
projections of future climate in an attempt to estimate likely risks and give a sense of
priority to tackling those that might threaten the site.

2. Materials and Methods

Meteorological measurements for Ethiopia are available from the late 19th century [20],
although they are not common in more remote parts of the country, and can be difficult
to access. We were grateful to receive a short-handwritten record from the Ethiopian
National Meteorology Agency which lists maximum and minimum daily temperatures and
precipitation totals for Dirre Sheikh Hussein from February–May –2022. These have been
Heritage 2022, 5 2665

combined with some summary measurements for 112 years from Ginir ~70 km directly
south of Sheikh Hussein from Weatherbase, and fragmentary three-hourly data from Robe
near Goba ~100 km to the southwest of Sheikh Hussein for the period 2005–2015 from
Timeanddate. We have used the datasets available at the World Bank World Climate Change
Knowledge Portal for both past observations (1901–2021) [21], ERA5 reanalysis data sets,
which provide global estimates of atmospheric variables (1970–2020), and mean projections
from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), for the historical period (1995–
2014) and the future (2015–2100). The future projections used RCP8.5, the representative
concentration pathway that represents a scenario of business-as-usual, where greenhouse
gas emissions remain high. In the context of the current research this can be seen as a
worst-case for the climate threats to the heritage site. The climate data were accessed online
via the URLs:
Climate Research Unit (accessed on 27 August 2022)
https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/
Timeanddate for current meteorological observations (accessed on 24 August 2022)
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/ethiopia
Weatherbase averages of longer term observatios (last accessed on 24 August 2022)
http://www.weatherbase.com/weather/weather.php3
World Climate Change Knowledge Portal: CRU, ERA5 and CMIP6 (accessed on 27
August 2022)
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/.
Some processing of data is required to render the meteorological parameters such
that they best represent threats e.g., the Scheffer index, which estimates the risk of wood
decay: Sch = Σ (Tm − 2)(D − 3)/16.7, where Tm is the monthly mean temperature and D
the number of days in the month with ≥0.3 mm of rain [22,23]. Such processing requires
only simple computer scripts for analysis. Statistics frequently adopted non-parametric
methods, e.g., the Kendall τ statistic was used to test the significance of trends over time
(analogous to the familiar regression statistic r2 ) and the Theil–Sen estimator to give the
median slope, as a robust method fairly insensitive to outliers.

3. Results
3.1. Recent Climate
Some features of regional climate over the last century are shown in Figure 3. The
February–May monthly average temperatures from Dirre Sheikh Hussein are marked as
diamonds in Figure 3a. In the absence of readily available data from the site, its climate
has been represented by temperature averaged across Oromia and Somali regional states
(Figure 3a). We have also used the seasonal cycle of temperature for Ginir, a historic trading
town [24] that is now an administrative centre for the East Bale Zone. Some additional
contemporary observations are available, over recent years, for Robe near Goba. The
average temperature at Robe was 17 ◦ C, annual precipitation 1043 mm and average relative
humidity (RH) 61.3% for the period 2005–2015. The century-long record from Ginir gives
average temperature as 20.4 ◦ C, annual precipitation 1066 mm and RH 60.9%. Dirre Sheikh
Hussein appears warmer than Ginir and Robe, with a climate more akin to Somali regional
state, hardly surprising given its proximity to more desert-like climate zones (Figure 2).
Precipitation shows considerable variability across the seasons (Figure 3c). In Oromia
State particularly, the rainfall pattern reveals the belg rains (February–April) and the meher
rains (mid-June–mid-September). Naturally the more arid Somali State has low rainfall, but
still shows hints of a bimodal pattern through the year. Relative humidity in Robe and Ginir
(Figure 3c) is at its highest (~70%) April–November, falling below 50% in January. Direct
solar radiation in Ginir is at its highest at the beginning and end of the year (Figure 3d).
Heritage 2022, 5 2666

Figure 3. (a) Monthly average temperature observations for Robe near Goba (white), Ginir (grey)
Oromia (black) and Somali (blue) regional states, with some 2022 values for Dirre Sheikh Hussein as
brown diamonds. (b) Observed monthly average precipitation for Robe, Ginir, Oromia and Somali.
(c) Observed monthly average RH for Robe and Ginir. (d) Observed monthly direct solar radiation for
Ginir. Note: time windows for observations are given in the Section 2. Note Months are abbreviated
to the three initial letters except in (d) where six of the months are a single letter.

Sand and silt deposited in floods affects the buildings and traditional water harvesting
ponds because of the absence of a suitable drainage system and deforestation. This along
with improper silviculture has made the production of cultural objects more difficult,
although satellite imagery suggests that changes around the Dirre Sheikh Hussein are
smaller than those found at other Islamic heritage sites [25], as cultivation continues and
has not been affected so much by extensive building activity around Dirre Sheikh Hussein.

3.2. Climate Change

The change in average temperature since 1901 shows a significant rise of about 0.78 ◦ C
per century (Kendall τ = 0.44; p2 < 0.0001) as seen in the early half of Figure 4a constructed
from regridded observations [21]. Climate is hotter in the more desert-like Somali regional
τ projected temperatures at Dirre Sheikh Hussein are likely to
state than in Oromia. The
lie between these two values. The changes projected for the future are under the extreme
RCP8.5 scenario that represent a kind of worst case, so indicate a rise of ~4 * C over the
coming century.
Heritage 2022, 5 2667

– – –
Figure 4. (a) Annual average temperature – for Oromia (black or white symbols) and Somali (blue)
–
for the observations 1901–2020 –
(triangles), reanalysis 1970–2020 –
(squares) historic CMIP6 1995–2015
–
(open circles with white interiors) 2015–2100 (closed circles with black or blue interiors) projected
under CMIP6. (b) Annual precipitation for Oromia regional state and Somali coded as in (a).

The change in precipitation is shown in Figure 4b and suggests an increase in both

Oromia and Somali regional states, but the results are more variable year-to-year in the
observational record. These regridded historical observations, especially in Oromia hint at a
decline through the 20th century which agrees with the work of Tolossa et al. [26] in Eastern
Ethiopia. Through the 21st century, modelling suggests increased precipitation. Obviously,
the more desert-like Somali has much lower rainfall, although the annual amount might
increase in the future.
Very hot days can affect those visiting the shrine. In the future the RCP8.5 scenario
would suggest a dramatic increase in the number of very hot days (>40 * C), particularly in
Somali State (Figure 5a). In the reanalysis data, these hot days in Somali occur mid-year
(Figure 5b), which is the hottest time of the year, although in Oromia they seem to occur
earlier than in Somali State (also see Figure 3a). Fortunately, the weather has generally mild
temperatures and is dry when the Birthday of Sheikh Hussein is celebrated in January.

Figure 5. (a) Days each year when temperature exceeds 40 ◦ C in Oromia (black) and Somali (blue)
for the reanalysis period 1970–2020 as squares and projections 2015–2100 as circles with blue or black
interiors. (b) Days each month –> 40 ◦ C in Oromia (black) and Somali (blue)
– for the reanalysis period
1970–2020. Note months abbreviated to single letters.
– – –
Water represents a key threat to heritage [27], and as seen in Figure 4b there is likely
–
to be a small increase in precipitation across the 21st century. However, the total annual
amount does not necessarily best represent the threat to heritage. In a changing climate
total precipitation can decline, yet individual falls of rain though less frequent become
heavier [28]. There is a sharp increase in the number of very wet days each year when
precipitation exceeds 20 mm in Oromia State (Figure 6a), rising to nine days per annum
by the end of the 21st century. However, the reanalysis data (1970–2020) is discordant and
very scattered compared with the CMIP6 estimates. The number – of very wet days also

–
Heritage 2022, 5 2668

increases in Somali State (Figure 3a) from 1970 and on through the 21st century, though not
as steeply as in Oromia.

Figure 6. (a) Days each year when precipitation exceeds 20 mm in Oromia (black) and Somali (blue)
–
for the reanalysis 1970–2020 –
as squares, historical analysis 1995–2015 as circles with white interiors
–
and CMIP6 projections 2015–2100 as closed circles. (b) Average annual RH in Oromia and Somali
–
for the reanalysis, historical analysis and projections. (c) Scheffer index (Sch) in 1850–1879 [29] and
effer index (Δ – –
(d) the projected change in Scheffer index (∆Sch) between 2070–2099 and 1859–1879 [29].
–
The annual RH values (Figure 6b) from the reanalysis data (1970–2020) are rather
scattered, but the longer-term change from the CMIP6 projections suggest a slight increase.
Resistance of wood to decay, and potentially attack by insects and mould, is represented by
the Scheffer index, which has been ~45 at Ginir over the last century. This is a relatively
low value and suggests only a medium risk of decay [30]. The index is likely to increase
across much of Ethiopia (Figure 6c,d), suggesting a potentially enhanced risk of timber
decay. As Tola [1] remarks: “The wood “The used
woodfor
used
the roof was particularly resistant and
and made it possible for the structure/buildings to stand
made it possible for the structure/buildings to stand for centuries”,
for centuries”, soimportant
so it is it is important
that
such longevity continues.

4. Discussion
The climate of Ethiopia is changing, and Oromia State is likely to get warmer in the
coming century. Temperatures increased by more than 1 ◦ C over the last century, and that
seems set to increase, though changes in the number of hot days could be dramatic in
Somali State over the coming century.
Temperature increases of a few degrees do not directly harm inorganic materials,
although small changes may be amplified via phase changes such as those involved through
freezing [31,32] or salt crystallisation [33,34], or enhanced by biological activity [35–37],
– behaviour or the management regime [38]. At Dirre Sheikh Hussein, the pilgrims
visitor
seem especially vulnerable to climate change. One the religious day is fixed by the saint’s
the saint’s
birthday birthday
(first Tuesday(first Tuesday The
in January). in January). The second
second festival takes festival
place intakes place
the last in the
month last
of the
Muslim year, Dū al-H . ijja, Ḏū al Ḥ
celebrating the end the haj with the feast Id al-Kabir. The Islamic
¯
calendar is based on 12 lunar months (i.e., a year of 354 or 355 days), so the date of this
festival, is fixed by the moon and thus takes place on a different date each year. This means,
in some future years, climate may be amenable, but in others the time may be prone to
heavy rain or heat waves. This will involve careful management by the darga to address the
changing, though somewhat predictable, conditions under which they welcome pilgrims
and the widening interest in tourism [39–41]. –
Regular repainting with white ash seems an important local approach to maintenance,
and probably lowers the solar gain of the building, keeping the interior cooler than other-
wise. The indoor temperatures are likely to buffer to the local mean, though there are no
measurements available to allow the comfort levels to be assessed.
Annual precipitation for the region showed little change over the last century, yet
Ethiopia may be a few percent wetter by the end of the 21st century. However, it is not
really the annual rainfall amount that is critical, it is more likely that the intensity will
be most relevant to heritage. Rainfall leads to drainage marks, already to some extent
Heritage 2022, 5 2669

evident, on the building walls (Figure 7a); these markings are perhaps enhanced through
the use of animal fat on beams in the building. The future is likely to be accompanied by
microbiological growth that could increase in line with a small rise in the Scheffer index
(Figure 6c,d). In future, shifting patterns of rainfall could result in staining of walls where
this had not been experienced before. Stains are also evident where people touch or kiss the
walls (Figure 7b), or at times paint surfaces with butter and blood, an activity not in keeping
with principles adopted at the site. Although humidity has a distinct annual cycle and
may increase (Figure 6b) this seems too small to interfere with the conservation of wooden
objects associated with the pilgrimage in the library or museum e.g., musical instruments,
Ulee Sheikh Hussein (ritual Y-shaped sticks) etc.

Figure 7. (a) Drainage marks on the walls of shrine. (b) Staining in places where worshippers kiss the
walls of the shrine or rub their hands on it, sometimes with butter and blood which changes the colour.
(c) Haro Luku pond built by Sheikh Hussein in the 10th century containing holy water (Zamzama),
used only for drinking purposes. (d) Cracked pillar in the shrine, probably because of rain entering
from the roof (e) Crazed walls of the shrine. Photographs by author H.G.T., August 2022.

However, in future there may often be heavier rainfall events, and floods and droughts
are likely to increase in frequency, but there is considerable uncertainty about this [42,43].
During heavy falls of rain, which flood the site, the drainage system can be overwhelmed,
and the water pools (Figure 7c) overfilled. It is important to maintain both drainage and
pools as water harvesting is an important adaptation to climate change [26].
Changes in soil moisture could enhance soil erosion and exacerbate the loss of sur-
rounding vegetation. Soil water cycles are set to change [16] and evapotranspiration will
probably be more rapid. Any change in this soil water could also lead to ground movement,
so structures may shift, and changes perhaps revealed as widening cracks in walls, gates,
etc. (Figure 7d). The dry jointed limestone masonry, bonded with a lime and mud mortar
and plastered, is likely to be subject to desiccation, so may crack (Figure 7e). However, the
RH changes across the coming century seem small (Figure 6b), so this process is unlikely to
get worse. The water table or soil moisture is also likely to change. In particular there is
enthusiasm to create a nursery for indigenous trees, so these might be planted at the site,
which is likely to have generally positive outcomes in reducing run-off etc.
This study has combined traditional meteorological parameters with observations of
deterioration at a local level. With more detailed records of local weather from Dirre Sheikh
Hussein it should be possible to tune data to heritage climates that typically better represent
pressures on built heritage [29]. In the current study climate data was mostly recorded some
distance from the site, so can give only a general sense of conditions. However, it is often
necessary in remote places to work in the absence of on-site observations of both damage
and environmental conditions. This makes satellite data and global models especially
useful [25,29]. Nevertheless, translating global data to the local level is challenging and
may require diverse local observations to be incorporated [44]. It is especially needed
where conservation research is limited, as it has been with the Islamic sites in the Horn of
Africa [25,45].
Heritage 2022, 5 2670

The results found in this paper show parallels with other work on conservation needs
in Ethiopia as seen at other important sites: e.g., Fasil Ghebb near Gondar [46,47] the
historic fortified town of Harar Jugol [48,49], the site at Harlaa [45] and the rock-hewn
churches of Lalibela [50–52]. A number of themes identified at Dirre Sheikh Hussein
seem to be repeated at these sites, such as damage from invasive restoration [52], lack
of local expertise, improper choice of materials [52] and a lack of focussed research [45].
The deterioration by rain and the need to reduce its impact on buildings [52], along with
wide ranges in temperature and biological activity on surfaces [51] are evident. The sites
often represent a living heritage in use by the community [51,52], so can show a sense of
community recognition of the need for conservation [48,49,52].

5. Conclusions
The site at Dirre Sheikh Hussein represents a place where architectural and artistic
achievements established major monuments. The site is a living religious centre that wel-
comes large numbers of pilgrims and encourages social interaction and cultural exchanges
across many different backgrounds, promoting peace and tolerance. The wider heritage
zone reveals a long history of human protection of the natural environment, so can teach us
about sustainability, reflected as much in its care for flora and fauna as in its representation
of traditional techniques of water harvesting. The site can additionally be a place for
tourism given the improved connections with other regions following the development of
the Seru-Shenen-Sheikh Hussein Road in 2015.
Despite the attractiveness of this major site, it remains vulnerable. It sits at the edge
of two climate types susceptible to change. Although there is much enthusiasm for its
protection, both locally and more widely in Ethiopia, there is a lack of human and financial
resources, so there are attempts under way to gain international funding that will help
local people gain knowledge through seminars and to support a range of their conservation
activities. Although the number of conservation professionals is growing, the country is
vast, and there is much to protect. As shown in our analysis this vulnerability has not
been well studied and there is limited monitoring at the site to support evidence-based
management plans. Condition reports are available, but may not be at the level of detail
that can reveal likely longer term changes at fine scale. The absence of detailed site plans
and meteorological data means that it is hard to assign observed forms of damage to distinct
environmental pressures. The future demands such work, although on the positive side,
stakeholders are enthusiastic about engaging with protection and maintenance at the site.
Awareness of the need to conserve this most significant site has fortuitously increased, just
when it is likely to face new threats.

Supplementary Materials: The following supporting information can be downloaded at: https:
//www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/heritage5030139/s1, Figure S1: Map of the site; Table S1: List of
sacred objects.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, H.G.T.; methodology, P.B.; formal analysis, P.B.; field in-
vestigation, H.G.T.; writing—original draft preparation, P.B.; writing—review and editing, H.G.T. and
P.B.; visualisation, P.B. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Data is freely available at the URLs denoted in the text.
Acknowledgments: We would like to thank: H/Abdulnasir Sh/Ahmed and H/Abdurahman (Abba
Karra) and the members of Darga for providing information; Abdula’alim Abubakar for giving us
access to the Dirre Sheikh Hussein meteorological records; Abduljalil Anwar Hussien (East Bale Zone
Culture and Tourism Office expert) for providing information; Abdi Edao, Executive Director of the
Wako Gutu Foundation for facilitating logistics support and Evangelos Kyriakidis, Director of the
Heritage Management Organization for technical support.
Heritage 2022, 5 2671

Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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