?21 Strategies Ebook by PKR Trading ? (1)
?21 Strategies Ebook by PKR Trading ? (1)
Such chart scenarios often provide interesting opportunities when the correction wave turns into
the next trend-continuation wave. All we have to do is wait for the price to break into the bearish
trend structure.
The break of the structure occurred when the price broke the trendline and also the swing low,
marked by the white horizontal line. Prior to the breakout, there was also a so-called "lower
bounce" which is a pressure-building pattern and it can often foreshadow a breakout scenario.
Trend-following traders may take such a signal as a trend confirmation entry
3
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The breakout led to the continuation of the bearish downtrend. As you can see, we just use very
simple (yet effective) principles of trend and price analysis to understand the underlying trend
dynamics.
If you have been looking for a trending approach, I suggest you start backtesting a similar strategy
to evaluate its effectiveness and to learn about trending behavior.
4
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Distribution Trend Continuation #2
I am giving you a price chart and you have to guess whether the price will go up or down next.
Of course, we cannot predict the next price move, but we can look for clues that signal to us
whether a chart is more bullish or more bearish.
So here is the chart. What do you think? Has the price a higher chance of going up or down next?
Ok, let´s try to dissect and analyze the price chart together. What can we see here?
At the top, we can see that the price broke out of a long sideways phase. We call those
phases distribution phases. During a distribution phase, there is a lot of buying and selling going
on, but the price is in an overall equilibrium.
However, the longer the distribution, the more meaningful the following breakout typically is.
In this case, the price broke out to the downside, signaling a bearish impulsive trend wave,
followed by the consolidation phase that we are seeing right now. The consolidation is much less
volatile than the distribution. This shows that the "battle between the buyers and the sellers" is
not as intense as during the distribution where you see much stronger volatility. This usually
5
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
confirms that the prevailing trend structure (bearish) is not broken and there is a higher chance
of seeing more bearish continuations.
A complete trend reversal takes longer than such short consolidations and also is more volatile.
However, at this point, it would be too early to get into a short trade just yet. As long as the price
is still inside the consolidation, the market is still in a neutral phase. Overall, the chart looks more
bearish than bullish but it would be too early to jump onto a trade.
In the next screenshot, the price broke out of the consolidation. The breakout sequence is also
really important to analyze. A strong breakout sequence (a few strong red candles leading to the
breakout) is a great bearish confirmation signal. Weak breakouts are typically not ideal.
At this point, the chart looks overwhelmingly bearish, and having a bullish bias would be not
objective.
However, even if your chart analysis provides a super clear bearish short signal and you cannot
find any bullish confluence factors, you still have to trade with a stop loss and apply
reasonable position sizing. Even the best trade setups/signals can (and will) fail. In trading, we
are dealing with uncertainties and we are playing probabilities. We don´t know in advance which
trade will be a win and which will be a loss.
6
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The next screenshot shows the outcome. The price continued the trend sequence of
impulsive > consolidation > impulsive wave throughout the whole trend. Small consolidations
and strong impulsive trend periods show an unbroken trend structure.
7
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Liquidity Run #3
The chart below shows the EUR/GBP on the daily timeframe at the beginning of the week. The
double-wick pattern above the green resistance area is a great signal on the higher timeframe.
The two long wicks shooting through the resistance show a large interest in the currency pair and
a temporary failure to continue the bullish move.
The wicks are not enough to just jump into a trade right away but they are a good enough signal
to start your trade planning on the lower timeframe.
On the 1H, the price showed a perfect liquidity run pattern. What is a liquidity run? Here are
some key components of the liquidity run:
8
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
After the liquidity run, the downtrend unfolded. The liquidity run with the higher timeframe
double-wick exhaustion are great complementary signals. They often (not always) foreshadow
new trending markets.
9
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Range Trading with Multi-Timeframe #4
Let´s start on the higher timeframe and we can find a lot of great insights about the price action
here:
• The Double Top marks the high point of the range. When the price fails to clear a high,
the sentiment turns slightly bearish. But there is more...
• Next is the Liquidity Grab. A Liquidity Grab is a fakeout pattern. This pattern shows the
rejection of the bullish attempt to take out the highs. Another bearish signal.
• Then there is the Break of Structure which signals that the price is now able to break into
fresh lows. At this point, it is time to go to the lower timeframe.
On the lower timeframe, we can see the breakout trend wave. However, one thing is important
to observe here:
Although there is a breakout, the pre-breakout trend wave is extremely bearish. The traders who
decide to just sell the breakout at this point are chasing the price. This is generally considered
bad practice. The longer a pre-breakout trend wave is going on, the higher the chance of a
pullback. So the best thing here is to wait for the next signal...
10
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Waiting was certainly the right decision. Although, in this example, the breakout could have
provided a small winner, this is not always the case and a pullback can also occur much sooner.
Now, the price has arrived back at the breakout level and we can wait for support to turn into
resistance. To get an even better entry signal potentially, we can go to an even lower timeframe
to observe the price action there.
11
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The lower timeframe shows this amazing Momentum Buildup pattern. The price has built a
natural support level and is really sticking to the level. This shows that there is a lot of selling
interest that is keeping the price that close to the level; the buyers cannot get the price higher
from there anymore. A breakout could signal the start of the next trend wave.
That way, the trader would not chase the price but enter relatively early in the new trend wave;
a much better entry scenario compared to the first one above.
And voila. The final outcome. Of course, this will not work out all the time but nothing in
trading works 100%. However, this top-down approach can be a great foundation for a trading
strategy.
12
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Breakout Trading with Patterns #5
The screenshot below shows the higher timeframe and we can identify a few important signals
here:
• The long-term trend has been bullish and the market has been rising. Once you identify
the overall trend direction, it helps you with trade selection because you typically want
to trade into the long-term trend.
• The market has recently pushed into a resistance level at the top (blue zone). So although
long trades might seem to make more sense in this market, you do not want to trade just
underneath a major resistance. This is a mistake many traders make and they forget to
check their higher timeframes for import support and resistance levels.
With that in mind, we can go to a lower timeframe to analyze micro price action.
On the lower timeframe, we can identify a contraction pattern. The price has been contracting
in the triangle. This indicates that both parties (buyers and sellers) are currently agreeing on the
price.
You want to avoid trading during such sideways contractions because the market is not going
anywhere. As traders we want to find momentum and we need markets that are moving in order
to realize winners that are large enough.
As long as the price is in such a sideways contraction, traders shouldn´t do anything and just wait
patiently.
13
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Sooner or later, there will be a breakout from the contraction. The breakouts out of tight
sideways consolidations often occur with great force, making them ideal trend signals. At that
point, the odds for more bullishness might be higher and a high momentum breakout often
foreshadows more momentum.
After the high momentum breakout, the price would have kept trending higher significantly. And
although this will, of course, not work all the time (nothing does in trading), looking for narrow
14
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
sideways consolidations below major resistance levels in a trending market could be a great
foundation to build a trading strategy around.
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
15
Breakout with Dirty Retest #7
This is a recent Gold chart and we can clearly see that the price has been in a long downtrend.
Throughout the trend, the market only made lower highs (LH)and never violated this important
trend structure.
After the last lower high, the market entered a longer-than-usual sideways phase. We call
those accumulations. Such long sideways periods are often a sign that the market has a lower
chance of continuing the prevailing trend direction. The two sides (buyers and sellers) are now
agreeing on the low price and there is no need for the price to fall lower.
We can also see that the market, for the first time, broke a lower high. This important change in
trend structure is a signal that often foreshadows a trend reversal. But it is not enough to just
jump into a long trade without further confirmation.
19
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Shortly after the breakout, the price moved back into the accumulation pattern. We call this
a liquidity run. Some traders refer to it as a stop run because this is where you expect a large
cluster of stop loss orders from the early breakout long traders.
Now, we have to carefully observe the price action during the liquidity run. We need to see a
strong bullish rebound. The stronger the bullish reaction, the better the signal.
20
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The market reacted strongly after the liquidity run and the price moved back above the breakout
high.
In technical analysis, this pattern is called the 1-2-3 pattern. It is a great breakout pattern that
you will be able to observe across different markets and also on all timeframes. When the 1-2-3
pattern is formed, a trend reversal is often occurring.
21
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Day Trading with the Daily Candle #8
I want to focus on some important trend trading concepts and I show you how a simple feature
can help traders understand trends much better. We will also do this with a multi timeframe
approach.
Below, you see the Daily chart from Silver at the end of last week. We can find a few important
price and trend developments here:
• The last 3 daily candles are all red and each candle broke the daily low of the candle
• But what is more important is how the price behaves around the daily highs. The first and
third red candle have long wicks to the upside. Those can be viewed as rejection wicks
and confirm the bearish momentum when the bullishness gets rejected.
• Also, the third red candle is making a run at the daily lows of the large green candle. A
break would confirm a more significant bearish trend shift and typically leads to more
selling over the next days.
After the long green candle was taken out, the bearish trend accelerated and the bearish
momentum increased. After the break of the green candle, the new daily candles have almost no
wick to the upside anymore - a strong bearish signal. As long as this is the case, the bearish trend
is confirmed.
22
Copyright Tradeciety.com
On the 15 min timeframe, we can observe an interesting price behavior: when the price breaks a
previous daily low, the price comes back to the daily low and then retests it as resistance on the
following day. Such retests of daily low as resistance are great potential entry points for trend-
following traders on the lower timeframes.
23
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
If you can identify such a retest early on in the day, it might foreshadow the trend direction for
the rest of the day.
Although the observations may sound simplistic, keeping an eye on the daily candles can be a
huge help for traders on the lower timeframes.
I would recommend scanning your daily timeframe to look for confirmed trending candles where
the price keeps pushing into new lows (in the case of a downtrend) or into new highs (in the case
of an uptrend). When you can identify 3 bearish/bullish candles in a row, a trend might be
confirmed.
You can then use that information to look for Support & Resistance flips as your trigger points on
the lower timeframes. Not always will a support turn into resistance but when it occurs, trend
traders may be able to benefit from the higher timeframe momentum confirmation.
24
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Supply Zone with Breakout Trading #9
We start our analysis on the higher timeframe as always. Every chart study should always start
on your higher timeframe.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see some great confluence: a strong pinbar rejection into a
supply zone and at a previous swing point. Although this is not a direct sell signal, it gives us
enough reasons to go into the coming week with a bearish bias and start looking for short trades
on the lower timeframes.
On the 30-minute timeframe we didn’t have to wait too long for a short setup. Let´s go over all
the confluence factors we can see here:
1. Looking at the green and red channels (Daily high low), we can see that the
price never touched the green line (Daily high) and kept pushing into the daily low. This
is a strong bearish trend confirmation.
2. The price also made a false breakout. The breakout was followed by strong bearish
candles, showing a large bearish interest.
3. The price action before the breakout is also worth noting: pre-breakout, the
price accelerated from the previous resistance. Such a pre-breakout sequence can often
foreshadow a high probability trend continuation.
25
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
After the breakout, the price continued its downtrend. The price fell a lot in a short amount of
time. This is a common behavior after a previous sideways consolidation. During consolidations,
a lot of pressure builds in the price, and after a breakout, this pressure is often released, resulting
in strong movements.
26
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Here are the most important takeaways from this chart study:
27
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Trend Reversal Trading #10
We start the analysis on the 1H timeframe and we analyze the trend structure: the price is in a
downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs. We see one higher low but this is not enough to
call it a reversal.
Then, the price forms a strong breakout candle (we call this displacement) and the price breaks
into a higher high. This is a strong bullish sign. But it is not the right time to buy just yet.
28
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
A few candles later, we can identify a 1H FVG (Fair Value Gap) on the 1H timeframe. This is the
context we have been waiting for. Now we are going to a lower timeframe to find the optimal
trade entry.
In the 5-minute timeframe, the price is in a strong uptrend after the long breakout sequence we
29
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
observed on the 1H. A lot of traders would be chasing such breakouts and then run into serious
trouble when the inevitable pullbackis coming. We are going to use the pullback to our
advantage.
Shortly after, the price pulled back significantly and reached the 1H FVG. A lot of pullback traders
will use this as an entry point for their trend-following trades.
30
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The price moved higher after hitting the 1H FVG and then on the way up created a new 5-minute
FVG.
On the pullback into the 5-minute FVG, traders may choose to take a secondary entry into the
bullish trend direction.
31
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Eventually, the price went into both targets, advancing the trend higher.
32
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Demand Zone Trading with Pullbacks #11
On the timeframe below, we start with our analysis and we see a bullish engulfing candle that is
confirming a fakeout. The price first broke the last low and then shot higher for the fakeout.
33
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
When we zoom out, we can see that the fakeout is happening right at a previous demand zone.
This is a great long-term confluence. Looking for signals around important structures is a good
trading plan.
34
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The screenshot below shows the lower timeframe. The long breakout candle (displacement) is
the higher timeframe engulfing candle. We do not want to chase breakouts so we have to wait
for a better entry signal.
The price continues higher first, leaving a new demand zone (order block) on the lower
timeframe. We can use this demand zone for pullback trading if the price retraces there.
35
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Shortly after, the price is pulled into the demand zone and shows a price rejection for the entry.
For traders seeking trades there, the stop loss is typically placed below the swing point.
The bullish trend really got started after the demand zone pullback and the price traded higher.
36
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Trend-Following with Fakeout #12
I have 2 trading strategies for you in this week´s newsletter. Let´s get right into it.
The first strategy is a so-called liquidity run. In a trending market, we look for the highest high
and then we wait for exhaustion. Exhaustion exists when the price tries to break above the
highest high but fails to do so. This is our first clue that this trend might be slowing down.
37
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Next, we have to wait for a break of structure. A break of structure exists when the price makes
a lower low. This is usually not something you can see in a healthy uptrend. A lower low marks
the starting point of a bearish trend.
This is a classic breakout strategy and traders may get into such positions right at the break of
structure.
38
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
For target placement, we can keep it simple as well. We look for the most recent swing lows on
the left.
The liquidity run is considered a trend reversal approach because you are going against the
previous bullish trend. But, at the same time, you are trying to capture the new downtrend that
is just getting started.
39
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Trend-Following with Pullback #13
First, we find an existing trending market that is still making higher highs and higher lows. In a
bullish trend, you ideally wait for a pullback to avoid chasing the price.
When we look deeper into the price action, we can see that this pullback has reached a Fair Value
Gap (FVG) and it finding support there. Pullbacks into FVGs may provide higher probability
scenarios.
40
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The entry is a breakout entry when the price is exiting the last consolidation. In this case, this
comes with a momentum shift with a large displacement candle.
41
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The bullish trend is then continued. Make sure to look for liquidity runs and exhaustion as we
have learned from our first example, as those could be signs of an upcoming trend reversal.
42
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Avoid False Breakouts #14
This is a super classic pattern and many traders will jump on this short breakout here and trade
it right away. But if you have been struggling with those kinds of setups, there is a better way.
Let´s put us in the shoes of the breakout short traders here for a moment...
43
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Where will the short breakout traders will have their stop loss? Usually, the stops will be clustered
right above the breakout area. We call this area the Stop Zone. This is a high liquidity area where
a lot of orders are clustered...
Instead of trading the initial breakout, it may be beneficial to wait for the price to move back into
the stop zone and look for a trading opportunity there. But we don´t go short just because the
price is in the stop zone!
44
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Typically, the Stop Run entry happens after a strong selling candle in the stop zone. So you´d
have to wait for a large bearish candle to confirm the momentum is shifting bearish again.
When you look closely, there were a few strong selling candles in the stop zone. Those can be
used for Stop Run trading. And afterward, the price completely turned and continued the
downtrend that was already hinted on the initial breakout.
45
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Reversal Fakeout Trading #15
Below we see the so-called Triple Tap pattern which is made up of three consecutive higher highs
in an uptrend but each high shows a lot of weakness. The price is barely able to break the previous
high.
This is NOT the sign of a healthy uptrend and can often foreshadow a trend reversal.
The signal of the Triple Tap is given when the price breaks the last swing low. In the screenshot
below, it is marked as the Break of Structure. This signals that the price is now making a lower
low which is the tipping point that turns a market bearish.
46
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
If you missed the initial breakout, you may often get a second chance. But do not
chase breakouts if you missed it.
47
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
In the screenshot below, the price entered a consolidation and then showed a Pullback Fakeout.
The price attempted to break out higher but immediately failed. In the context of a downtrend,
this is often the sign of a bearish continuation.
48
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
And we can see that the price indeed trended lower after the pullback fakeout.
It all started with the Triple Tap that signaled a weak bullish market and then led to two
interesting bearish opportunities.
49
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
FVG Trend Trading #16
Although this strategy is traditionally traded on the lower timeframes, you can find the same
patterns across all timeframes.
The first thing you are looking for is a fakeout in a trending market. Ideally, the fakeout happens
with strong reversing momentum. In the example below, after the bullish breakout, the market
immediately reversed lower with strong selling. This is a great starting point.
Next, we want to wait for a market structure shift (MSS) which is confirmed when the price is
making the first lower low. This signals a trend change. But, we don´t want to chase the price
and we wait for a better entry.
We need a FVG for our trade timing. The price gives us a great FVG on the breakout that we can
work with. Now it is all about waiting for the price to get back to the FVG.
50
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The trading plan is simple: you wait for the price to get back to the FVG. Sometimes, the price
will not pull back enough and you are going to miss some opportunities. But this is OK. It is much
better, long-term, to wait for the FVG because it gives you a great RRR for your trades.
51
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Multi Timeframe with Smart Money #17
For this strategy, we are starting on the Daily timeframe as our Higher Timeframe. Here we
determine the trend direction (bearish) and we also look for other confirmation. In this case, we
see that the price is pulling back into a FVG. This is great because we want to participate in the
downtrend and a pullback usually offers a better RRR.
We go to a lower timeframe and here we see another fakeout. A fakeout is a great sign that a
trend might be losing momentum. It is too early to jump into a trade just yet but the confluence
with the higher timeframe direction is what we are looking for.
52
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
There may have been a few entry opportunities in the screenshot below by waiting for pullbacks
into FVGs - try to see if you can find the FVG that the market left on the bearish moves.
If you missed all pullbacks, the final opportunity exists on the breakout.
53
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Typically, traders first target the last low. However, we know that we are trading with the higher
timeframe trend and, therefore, might be able to stretch our target. But this has to be done with
caution and we don´t want to be too greedy.
54
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Simple Order Block Trading #18
Here we see that the price is trading back into a strong order block. The order block is the origin
of the strong bullish movement. I would recommend that you start your trading preparation by
marking all major order blocks on your charts and then carefully observe the price action around
those.
After hitting the order block, the price started reversing. How you determine the entry is a
personal preference and there are many options. You could wait for a break and retest of a
previous swing high. Other traders will prefer to trade the breakout directly.
55
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
In this example, the price would have also retested the breakout level before shooting higher. A
reasonable first target could have been the FVG that the market created on the bearish move.
Alternatively, targeting the previous highmay have been another viable option.
56
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Cup and Handle Breakout #19
Higher timeframe on the left:
• The price is in a long-term bullish trend which sets the bias to bullish!
• The price successfully broke the Daily 21 SMA and retested from above as support. This
signal gives us confidence that the bulls are in total control
• The price formation we see is a Cup and Handle which is a strong bullish accumulation
pattern
• The price started making higher lows after the Daily 21 SMA retest
• Underneath the Cup and Handle resistance, the price started consolidating in a very tight
space - this is often foreshadowing a breakout
• The volume dried up during the last phase of the Cup and Handle - this is a good sign that
the accumulation is really happening
• On the breakout, the volume spiked and then keept going up as the bullish trend
continued - volume confirmation is key for trend-following
In trading, it is all about being selective and practicing patience. If you can spot 2-3 great
opportunities a week, that is all that it takes for long-term success.
57
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Head & Shoulders Continuation #20
As with any good chart analysis, we start on the higher timeframe. In this case, we see the Daily
timeframe on the left. There are a few important points to consider here:
1. The chart is in a recent bearish downtrend. During the last 3 weeks, we saw strong bearish
candles pushing lower. This tells us already that we mostly want to look for short continuation
trades.
2. The price just broke out of a head and shoulders pattern. A breakout is a good continuation
signal.
3. Finally, we see a daily inside candle after a strong bearish candle. I love seeing inside candles
after a strong breakout. Daily inside candles often provide great patterns on the lower timeframe.
On the lower timeframe on the right, we see another long-stretched head and shoulders pattern.
Such patterns on the lower timeframe are just great because they provide clear entry points; in
this case, after a breakout through the neckline.
58
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Shortly after, the breakout occurred on the lower timeframe - I circled the area in blue on the
right. On the breakout, we even see a break and retest pattern of the neckline. Such retests are
my favorite way to get into trades. The trend then easily continued lower, continuing the bearish
trend we confirmed previously.
The most important takeaway for me here is that you always trade in the direction of the higher
timeframe and a higher timeframe analysis is the first step in your trade planning. It makes your
life as a trader so much easier.
59
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Cup and Handle Trend Following #21
Higher Timeframe Analysis (2H Chart)
The higher timeframe (2H chart) of GBPNZD illustrates a pronounced bullish trend. This trend is
characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong upward momentum.
The price has then formed a sideways range which is normal trend behavior. As a trend-
continuation trader, it is important to carefully analyze range markets because they often offer
great trading opportunities. I consider myself a trend trader and I always scan my charts for
ranges to wait for potential trend continuation breakouts.
The last leg inside the range is extremely bullish and the price moved from the lower support
back to the resistance with strong momentum. As the price reaches the resistance, it is time to
go to the lower timeframe.
60
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Lower Timeframe Analysis (5min Chart)
Zooming into the lower timeframe (5min chart), the bullish narrative continues. The chart shows
a classic "Cup and Handle" pattern, which is the best bullish continuation pattern. The formation
begins with a rounded bottom (the "Cup") followed by a consolidation phase (the "Handle").
As the handle forms, a period of pre-breakout contraction is observed, where the price tightens
before the breakout. The tighter the contraction, the better the overall pattern quality.
The breakout occurs early in the NZD session which is a great confirmation sign – early session
breakouts are more likely to succeed.
The trend then continued higher during the session, providing a great example of the power of
multi-timeframe analysis.
61
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Multi Timeframe Resistance Breakout #21
Higher timeframe: important price level
Always start your analysis on the higher timeframe! When we zoom out here, we can see that
the price is trading into an all-time high. Whenever the price is reaching weekly, monthly, yearly,
or all-time highs/lows, you MUST mark them on your charts because the price is likely going to
respond in some way when it gets there.
We do NOT want to trade the first reaction right at the all time high, but we are waiting for a
price reaction first. We want to see if the level is holding as resistance, in which case we'd look
for short opportunities.
However, the price didn't stop at the level and we saw a clean breakout. This is a strong bullish
sign and we then look for trend continuations. Here we see that, after the breakout, the price
formed an ascending triangle pattern. The ascending triangle is among the best trend
continuation patterns.
62
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
Many traders make the mistake of jumping into a trade as soon as the price hits the level which
is a big mistake. Here, we waited to see the reaction. After the confirmed breakout, we know
that the market is overall bullish so we look for bullish continuation patterns.
63
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
The result
After the breakout from the ascending triangle, the trend continued. This is the perfect example
for a great multi timeframe trade. Let's recap the approach:
• Find a level on your HTF and wait for the price to get to it
• Do not trade the initial touch but wait for a breakout or reversal from the level
• On the lower timeframe, look for a pattern after the initial reaction to the level
64
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
5 Best Trading Tips From The Number 1
Trading Book
One of my favorite trading books is <Come into my trading room= by Alexander Elder. I think it is
a must-read for every aspiring trader.
In this newsletter, I have a quick overview of five of the most important points made in the book:
Mind: Emotional control is the key to making good trading decisions that are based on your
trading rules and not done impulsively.
Method: Having a trading method with tested trading rules that a trader is sticking to religiously
allows the trader to trade with an edge and consistency.
Money: Money management and particularly position sizing are crucial for trading success.
Traders without a proper position sizing strategy see wild swings in their trading accounts and
have a lot of volatility in their results.
#2 System Development
The most successful traders that I have seen are the ones who developed their own trading
system. Or, they have taken an existing trading strategy and then tweaked it to make it their own.
Having a trading system that makes total sense to you and where you fully understand all the
components also leads to more confidence in your trading.
#4 Risk Management
Making sure that you are able to effectively take losses and do not let regular losses turn into
large losses is something every trader has to master.
Go over your last 30 to 50 trades and look for outliers. If you can detect large single losses and
periods of extreme drawdowns, it usually highlights weaknesses in your risk management.
#5 Continuous Improvement
65
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
A good trading journal like edgewonk tells you everything that you need to know when it comes
to improving your trading: when do you lose the most, what is your best-performing setup, how
often do you break your trading rules and how much money does it cost, what your best trade
management approach is, and many other aspects.
Final words
I hope you found something helpful in the five points that you can use in your own trading. Start
small and do not overwhelm yourself, though. You do not have to change your whole trading at
once. Identify one area in your trading that you have neglected and then start there.
Making one change every week or month will lead to great progress over time.
When Kovner says "personalize losses," he's talking about the tendency for traders to
emotionally tie their self-worth or identity to the outcome of their trades. When a trade results
in a loss, they may see it as a personal failure or as a reflection of their competence. This can
result in a negative emotional reaction, such as fear, anger, or frustration.
However, losses in trading are inevitable and are simply a part of the process. If a trader lets
these losses affect them emotionally, they may start making decisions based on these emotions,
rather than on careful analysis and strategy. This is problematic because emotion-based trading
66
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
can lead to impulsive decisions, over-trading, or holding onto a losing trade in the hopes it will
turn around, all of which can result in greater losses.
The lesson for regular traders is to view trading as a business, not as a measure of personal worth.
Traders should adopt a systematic and disciplined approach, where both gains and losses are
seen as the natural outcomes of trading. They should focus on their overall trading strategy and
the long-term process, rather than getting emotionally attached to the outcome of individual
trades.
There are countless things that a trader could choose to work on to improve their trading. And
many traders get lost or overwhelm themselves when it comes to working on their trading.
I want to propose a simple but HIGHLY effective way that might be able to help you bring more
consistency into your trading progress and allow you to establish a better routine for your
development as a trader.
At the end of each trading week, you have to answer three simple questions:
The goal of the three questions is to focus on specific things that have happened in your last
trading week and to identify one thing that you work on during the next week. But let me explain
further.
For the first two questions, you go over the trades you took during the last week.
You identify one trade or one specific event that you are satisfied with. This could be closing a
67
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading
bad trade right after you notice a mistake, letting a winning trade run all the way to your target,
being consistent with your risk management, or any other positive action that stands out. The
goal is to bring awareness to your strengths and build a catalog of positive trading attributes. This
is especially helpful for struggling traders. Many traders are too hard on themselves and by
focusing on the positive, you can improve your mental game while finding your edge.
For the second question, you identify a mistake you made. Here, you want to find the biggest
mistake that cost you the most, or that was hard on your mental capital. By identifying the biggest
mistake, you are searching for the thing that, if you can fix it, will have a major impact on your
trading performance. There is no point in getting lost in the details while you are making big
mistakes. Many amateur traders try to fix all the little things in their trading, while a single big
mistake wipes out all their progress.
And, finally, you come up with one thing that you want to focus on during your next week of
trading. Ideally, this is derived from the big mistake that you identified in the previous question.
Focusing on one thing at a time allows you to focus on the most important objective at hand and
provides a clear path going forward.
While this sounds simple, if you keep repeating this process week after week, by the end of the
year, you will end up with a super helpful list for your trading. The list includes:
• 50 positive trading habits/actions that are your strengths and could reveal your edge.
• 50 big mistakes. Most traders will notice that they don’t have 50 unique and different
mistakes, but certain themes will repeat.
• You will have worked on 50 problems and hopefully made progress on fixing them, putting
you closer to becoming a professional trader.
I hope that you see the power of this approach. By making small but consistent progress over
time, you should see a huge improvement in your trading over the course of a few months or a
year.
It also provides a more structured and achievable process for your trading development and does
not overwhelm you by trying to make everything work at the same time.
68
Copyright https://youtube.com/@pkr_trading