6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I.
Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
INTERVIEWS | SECURITY
H.I. Sutton on the Future of
Underwater Warfare in the
Indo-Pacific Region
What are some of the future strategic and
technological challenges to submarine forces in
the region?
By Franz-Stefan Gady
January 22, 2020
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
A graphic rendering of the Royal Australian Navy’s future Attack-class diesel-
electric attack submarine.
Credit: Australian Submarine Corporation
The Diplomat’s Franz-Stefan Gady speaks to H.I. Sutton about the
changing character of underwater warfare, submarine
procurement in the Indo-Pacific, and some of the future strategic
and technological challenges to submarine forces in the region.
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
H.I. is a defense analyst and one of the world’s leading experts on
underwater warfare and submarine technology.
Sutton writes about the secretive and under-reported submarines
as well as the unusual and interesting vessels and technologies
involved in fighting beneath the waves. He combines the latest
methods in open source intelligence (OSINT) with traditional
defense analysis.
Sutton runs the website Covert Shores and is a contributor to
both Forbes and Jane’s. His most recent book, co-authored with C.
Edward Davis, is World Submarines: Covert Shores Recognition
Guide. He tweets @CovertShores
The Diplomat: First off, why are most navies in the Indo-
Pacific region pursuing large-scale submarine procurement
programs? Why invest in a powerful submarine force?
Sutton: Submarines are the unsaid capital ships of today, only
competing with aircraft carriers for the top slot. And while the
carriers (and there is also a carrier arms race going on in the
region) are more visible in terms of power projection,
submarines happen to be their natural predator. So nearly all
regional players have submarines near the top of their priorities.
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
The larger navies’ programs are interesting, but generally well
covered. But smaller regional navies such as Bangladesh,
Myanmar, Thailand, and the Philippines are also embarking on
this journey. For me that’s a largely untold story that is part of a
bigger trend, which is seeing submarines proliferate.
What are modern submarines primarily used for?
Even the least sophisticated submarines are apex predators in the
naval environment. They have been an asymmetrical weapon
since long before that became a buzzword. So they offer the
capability to take out enemy warships, even if the enemy fleet is
on paper much more powerful.
In operational terms they are also used for intelligence gathering,
commerce raiding, and special forces missions.
Only the best submarines are likely to be useful in countering
other submarines, however, so there is still an advantage to being
a bigger player.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of
conventionally- and nuclear-powered submarines
respectively?
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
The main advantages of nuclear-powered submarines are range,
speed, and additional power. This latter point is sometimes
overlooked, but it means that nuclear submarines can generally
have much larger sonar arrays, so they can hear targets and
threats much farther away.
But it is not all one-sided. Conventional boats have advantages of
cost, crewing requirements, and, in some circumstances, stealth.
The biggest one is cost. So conventional boats are still very
formidable and make most sense for many navies.
What are some of the challenges that developing countries
like Vietnam, which operates a fleet of Russian-made Project
636M (improved Kilo-class) diesel electric attack submarines,
face in maintaining and deploying such a force?
Navies which are relatively new to the submarine game will have
to build the human aspects of submarine operations. The safety
culture, the maintenance culture, and so on. And also the tactics
and leadership, which should be tailored to the specific navy. And
all this is without covering logistics, maintenance, and upgrades.
Vietnam is an interesting example. They have just commissioned
a specialized submarine rescue ship, and also announced an
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
indigenous submarine program. They will build a small 100-ton
submarine, which I think is a pragmatic approach.
How difficult is it to establish an indigenous submarine
construction program? For example, Taiwan is attempting to
build a fleet of eight diesel-electric attack subs without any
prior experience but some international support. What
makes or breaks such a program?
Taiwan has some unique political challenges. Their indigenous
design is grounded in their own experience of Dutch submarines,
however, so it is low risk. The x-rudder may add complications
perhaps, but overall the design is conservative. This is probably a
very good thing as it will minimize unknowns.
The bigger question is whether it will be modern enough to stand
up to improving Chinese submarines? And whether four boats
will ever be enough?
Besides, the traditional suppliers (e.g., Russia, France,
Germany, Sweden etc.) do you see any new players in the
submarine procurement market emerging in the Indo-Pacific
region?
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
South Korea is stepping into the market, and China is upping its
export game.
For a few years Japan has looked to be a possible supplier. They
did offer their subs to Australia, losing to the French proposal, but
have been slow elsewhere. One factor is that they are very
advanced, and there are questions as to how much of its
technology Japan is willing to share. But they are an interesting
possibility, and with the construction gap between their latest
Soryu-class boats and the next generation 29SS design, they could
benefit from additional orders to keep their skills honed.
Explain some of the biggest changes in undersea warfare
technology since the end of the Cold War.
The first one which comes to mind is the increased use of
conventionally armed land attack cruise missiles. The U.S. Navy’s
Tomahawk actually entered service at the end of the Cold War but
as a trend, it’s something which has matured since then.
Behind the scenes better sensors, such as sonar, optronic masts,
and navigation systems have improved. Even many smaller
patrol submarines now have flank sonar arrays and towed sonar
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
arrays, something only the leading navies had during the Cold
War.
To what degree has new submarine technology been able to
offset advances in anti-submarine warfare?
This is a tricky one, but my feeling is that submarines still hold a
natural advantage. The oceans have not gotten any smaller, and
actually anti-submarine warfare is under-invested and under-
rehearsed in most navies it seems.
Many experts express concern that sea-based nuclear-
powered ballistic submarines will be easier to detect and
destroy given the gradual introduction of more accurate
detection and tracking technologies. This could negatively
impact strategic stability in a political crisis between two
nuclear powers. Do you share this concern?
I would agree, if it happens. I’ll pick on the word “gradual.” I
think that submarine stealth and situational awareness will
continue to advance in parallel, or ahead, of these new detection
technologies. We will see.
With the emergence of smaller unmanned underwater
vehicles, will we see an end to manned submarine missions in
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
the coming decades?
I think that it’s inevitable, but it may take longer than some
predictions. The U.S. Navy’s Orca XLUUV will probably go down
in history as the first proper drone submarine, but several
countries in the region are working on relatively large
autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). China, South Korea, and
Japan all have projects.
One twist may be that smaller navies can catch up quick with
large armed AUV adoption, especially if they are single purpose
designs. While the maritime environment represents its own
challenges, the AI aspect is a democratized skill available in every
country. It’s a hard space to predict and I think that the future
may hold some surprises.
How will underwater warfare change in the near future with
the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI)?
AI is already leading to a revolution in undersea warfare. Most
visibly in autonomous vehicles, but inside crewed submarines
also. Navigation, system automation and so on. So submarine
crews could get smaller.
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6/3/24, 8:50 AM H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat
In your opinion, what is the most common misperception that
nonexperts have about underwater warfare and submarines?
Good question. For the conventional submarines operated by
most countries in the region, people forget that they spend most
of their time tied up in port. Their endurance is limited and
longer patrols take a lot of preparation. This is a major factor in
submarine operations which rarely (if ever) crops up in internet
discussions on submarine capabilities.
This interview has been edited.
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