Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN)

Rating: SELL | CMP: Rs1,846 | TP: Rs1,492

July 29, 2024 Total volume grows 13% YoY

Q1FY25 Result Update Quick Pointers:

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target |  Reco  Vehicle conversion stood at 20,800 during Q1FY25 (against 20,100 in
Q1FY24)
Change in Estimates

FY25E
Current
FY26E
Previous
FY25E FY26E
 EBITDA/scm came in strong at Rs11.9, up by Rs0.4/scm QoQ.
Rating SELL SELL
Target Price 1,492 1,303 MAHGL reported an EBITDA of Rs4.2bn in Q1FY25, up 6.3% QoQ (PLe:
Sales (Rs. bn) 57 58 56 58
Rs3.8bn). PAT came in at Rs2.8bn, up 7.4% QoQ (PLe: Rs2.4bn). Total volume
% Chng. 1.2 -
EBITDA (Rs. bn) 15 15 14 15 grew 13.1% YoY to ~3.9mmscmd aided by strong growth across all segments.
% Chng. 5.0 -
EPS (Rs.) 95.0 93.2 89.6 93.0
On a QoQ basis, total volume increased 2.1%. EBITDA/scm came in higher
% Chng. 6.0 0.2 than estimates at Rs11.9. Going ahead, given lack of GA expansion
opportunities, we build in a muted volume growth of 5% CAGR over FY24-26E
Key Financials - Standalone with an EBITDA/scm of Rs10.5/10/scm for FY25/26. The stock is currently
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E trading at 19.4x/19.8x FY25/26 EPS and 12.4x/12.4x FY25/26 EV/EBITDA. We
Sales (Rs. bn) 63 62 57 58
raise our multiple but maintain ‘Sell’ rating with a TP of Rs1,492 based on 16x
EBITDA (Rs. bn) 12 18 15 15
Margin (%) 18.8 29.5 25.6 25.1 FY26 EPS
PAT (Rs. bn) 8 13 9 9
EPS (Rs.) 80.0 130.5 95.0 93.2  Healthy YoY volume growth: Gas sales volume stood at 3.86mmscmd, up
Gr. (%) 32.3 63.2 (27.2) (1.8)
DPS (Rs.) 26.0 30.0 38.0 37.3 13% YoY. CNG volume grew 11.7% YoY to 2.77mmscmd. Total PNG volume
Yield (%) 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.0 increased 16.7% YoY to 1.09mmscmd. Within this segment, D-PNG grew
RoE (%) 20.4 27.8 17.3 15.4
10.5% YoY to 0.55 mmscmd, while industrial/commercial segment grew 23.8%
RoCE (%) 24.5 33.7 20.8 18.6
EV/Sales (x) 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 YoY to 0.54mmscmd. On a QoQ basis, total PNG sales were down 2.5%, while
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 9.7 12.4 12.4 CNG volume grew 4%. LNG sales during the quarter stood at 4,100 kg/day.
PE (x) 23.1 14.1 19.4 19.8
P/BV (x) 4.4 3.5 3.2 2.9 The company has guided for a volume growth of 6-7% YoY, but on a
conservative basis, we build in a volume growth of 5% CAGR over FY24-26E
to reach ~4mmscmd.
Key Data MGAS.BO | MAHGL IN
52-W High / Low
Sensex / Nifty
Rs.1,859 / Rs.971
81,333 / 24,835
 Sequential improvement in EBITDA/scm: Gross margin came in at
Market Cap Rs.182bn/ $ 2,178m Rs17.9/scm, flat QoQ. EBITDA at Rs4.2bn was up 6.3% QoQ. Subsequently,
Shares Outstanding 99m
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.1220.41m EBITDA/scm came in at Rs11.9/scm, up by Rs0.4/scm QoQ (above PLe of
Rs10.8/scm). On the domestic gas front, prices remain capped at
Shareholding Pattern (%) US$6.5/mmBtu. Spot LNG prices continue to remain at ~US$12/mmBtu. Going
Promoter’s 32.50 ahead, we estimate an EBITDA/scm Rs10.5/10 for FY25/26E.
Foreign 31.49
Domestic Institution
Public & Others
16.67
19.34
 Conference call highlights: 1) MGL set up 2 new CNG stations and added
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - 35,544 households and 104 ind/comm customers in Q1. 2) Unison Enviro
added 1 CNG station (total 57 stations till date) and 341 households. Total
Stock Performance (%) ind/comm customers stood at 57. 3) Unison Enviro clocked a volume of
1M 6M 12M 0.17mmscmd and growth guidance stands at more than 10% YoY given a
Absolute 23.1 34.3 69.9
Relative 19.1 16.8 39.3
small base. Revenue for the quarter was Rs880mn. 4) MGL expects volume
growth opportunities with the launch of Bajaj Auto’s 2-wheeler in Mumbai and
TVS looking to launch CNG scooters in the first half of 2025. 5) Vehicle
Swarnendu Bhushan
[email protected] | 91-22-66322260 conversion stood at 20,800. Within this, PV/taxis conversions were 14,400, 3-
Payal Shah wheelers were 5,000, small commercial vehicles were 1,200-1,300, BEST
[email protected] | buses were 59 and MSRTC buses were 90. 6) Capex incurred in Q1 was
Rs2.5bn. Target of setting up 50 CNG stations in MGL alone and another 25
stations in Unison Enviro in FY25

July 29, 2024 1

 Mahanagar Gas

MGL Quarterly Financials

Q1 Q4 Q1 Q1
(Rs bn) QoQ gr. % Var YoY gr.
FY25 FY24 FY25E FY24
Revenue 15.9 15.7 1.4% 15.3 4.0% 15.4 3.4%
YoY Change (%) 3.4 -2.7 -0.6 5.7
Total Expenditure 11.7 11.7 -0.2% 11.5 1.6% 10.2 15.2%
EBITDA 4.2 3.9 6.3% 3.8 11.4% 5.2 -19.7%
EBITDA/SCM 11.9 11.5 10.8 16.8
Margins (%) 26.3 25.1 24.6 33.9
Depreciation 0.7 0.8 -7.3% 0.8 -10.0% 0.6 15.8%
Interest 0.0 0.0 -19.1% 0.0 -20.3% 0.0 23.5%
Other Income 0.4 0.4 -9.9% 0.3 21.6% 0.4 3.1%
PBT 3.8 3.6 7.5% 3.3 18.0% 5.0 -22.6%
Tax 1.0 0.9 7.8% 0.8 21.2% 1.3 -22.1%
Rate (%) 25.8 25.8 25.2 25.7
PAT 2.8 2.6 7.4% 2.4 17.0% 3.7 -22.8%
Adj PAT 2.8 2.6 7.4% 2.4 17.0% 3.7 -22.8%
Margin (%) 17.9 16.9 15.9 24.0
Source: Company, PL

Total volume grew 13% YoY

Q1 Q4 Q1 Q1
Volume (mmscmd) QoQ gr. % Var YoY gr.
FY25 FY24 FY25E FY24
CNG 2.77 2.7 4.0% 2.70 2.5% 2.5 11.7%
PNG - Ind/Comm 0.54 0.6 -2.1% 0.57 -4.7% 0.4 23.8%
PNG - Domestic 0.55 0.6 -2.8% 0.57 -3.9% 0.5 10.5%
PNG - Total 1.09 1.1 -2.5% 1.14 -4.3% 0.9 16.7%
Total Volumes 3.86 3.8 2.1% 3.84 0.5% 3.4 13.1%
Source: Company, PL

Margin improved sequentially by Rs0.4/scm EBITDA/scm anticipated at Rs10.5/10/scm going

ahead
Volume (mmscmd) EBITDA/scm (Rs)
16.8 Volume (mmscmd) EBITDA/scm (Rs)
3.9 14.6 18
3.8 12.8 13.3 16
3.7 11.5 11.9 14 4.5 13.9 16.0
3.6 9.1 12 4.0 14.0
7.9 8.2 10
3.5 3.5 10.5 10.0 12.0
8 9.5
3.4 6 3.0 8.4 10.0
3.3 4 2.5
3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9
3.4

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.2 2 8.0
2.0
3.1 0 6.0
1.5
1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

Q2FY24

Q3FY24

Q4FY24

Q1FY25

1.0 4.0
0.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 2.0
0.0 0.0
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Source: Company, PL
Source: Company, PL

July 29, 2024 2

 Mahanagar Gas

Financials
Income Statement (Rs bn) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs bn)
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E Y/e Mar FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E

Net Revenues 63 62 57 58 Non-Current Assets

YoY gr. (%) 76.9 (0.9) (9.2) 2.0
Cost of Goods Sold 44 36 34 35 Gross Block 40 48 59 69
Gross Profit 19 26 22 23 Tangibles 40 48 59 69
Margin (%) 26.9 38.3 35.8 35.5 Intangibles - - - -
Employee Cost 1 1 1 1
Other Expenses 8,937 8,686 9,312 9,422 Acc: Dep / Amortization 12 14 18 21
Tangibles 12 14 18 21
EBITDA 12 18 15 15 Intangibles - - - -
YoY gr. (%) 28.1 55.6 (21.2) 0.1
Margin (%) 18.8 29.5 25.6 25.1 Net fixed assets 28 33 41 47
Tangibles 28 33 41 47
Depreciation and Amortization 2 3 3 3 Intangibles - - - -

EBIT 10 16 11 11 Capital Work In Progress 7 8 6 6

Margin (%) 15.1 25.1 20.0 19.3 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments 15 19 19 19
Net Interest 35,887 43,589 48,137 52,925 Net Deferred tax assets (2) (2) (2) (2)
Other Income 1 2 1 1 Other Non-Current Assets - - - -

Profit Before Tax 17,368 18,308 14,277 14,414 Current Assets

Margin (%) 16.8 27.7 22.1 21.3 Investments - - - -
Inventories 0 0 0 0
Total Tax 5,566 5,691 4,621 4,386 Trade receivables 3 3 3 3
Effective tax rate (%) 57.2 56.7 57.5 55.6 Cash & Bank Balance 2 4 3 2
Other Current Assets - - - -
Profit after tax 8 13 9 9 Total Assets 60 72 76 82
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 1 1 1 1
Adjusted PAT 8 13 9 9 Other Equity 40 50 56 62
YoY gr. (%) 32.3 63.2 (27.2) (1.8) Total Networth 41 51 57 63
Margin (%) 12.5 20.6 16.5 15.9
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 8 13 9 9 Provisions - - - -
YoY gr. (%) 32.3 63.2 (27.2) (1.8) Other non current liabilities - - - -
Margin (%) 12.5 20.6 16.5 15.9
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income - - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 8 13 9 9 Trade payables 3 3 3 3
Equity Shares O/s (bn) 0 0 0 0 Other current liabilities 13 15 13 14
EPS (Rs) 80.0 130.5 95.0 93.2 Total Equity & Liabilities 60 72 76 82
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

July 29, 2024 3

 Mahanagar Gas

Cash Flow (Rs bn) Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E Year
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E

PBT 11 17 13 12 Per Share(Rs)

Add. Depreciation 2 3 3 3 EPS 80.0 130.5 95.0 93.2
Add. Interest 0 0 0 0 CEPS 103.4 158.2 127.3 127.3
Less Financial Other Income 1 2 1 1 BVPS 418.5 520.6 577.6 633.6
Add. Other (1) (1) (1) (1) FCF 26.0 80.3 11.3 21.3
Op. profit before WC changes 12 19 15 15 DPS 26.0 30.0 38.0 37.3
Net Changes-WC 0 1 (1) 0 Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (3) (4) (3) (3) RoCE 24.5 33.7 20.8 18.6
Net cash from Op. activities 10 16 11 12 ROIC 16.4 23.0 15.4 13.9
Capital expenditures (7) (8) (10) (10) RoE 20.4 27.8 17.3 15.4
Interest / Dividend Income 0 1 - - Balance Sheet
Others 0 (5) 1 1 Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 0.0
Net Cash from Invt. activities (6) (13) (8) (8) Net Working Capital (Days) 1 1 0 0
Issue of share cap. / premium - - - - Valuation(x)
Debt changes - - - - PER 23.1 14.1 19.4 19.8
Dividend paid (3) (3) (4) (4) P/B 4.4 3.5 3.2 2.9
Interest paid - - 0 0 P/CEPS 17.9 11.7 14.5 14.5
Others 0 0 - - EV/EBITDA 15.2 9.7 12.4 12.4
Net cash from Fin. activities (3) (3) (4) (4) EV/Sales 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1
Net change in cash 0 0 (1) 0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.0
Free Cash Flow 3 8 1 2 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs bn)

Key Operating Metrics
Y/e Mar Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net Revenue 16 16 16 16
Sales Volume (mmscmd) 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0
YoY gr. (%) 0.5 (6.1) (2.7) 3.4
EBITDA (Rs/scm) 9.5 13.9 10.5 10.0
Raw Material Expenses 9 9 10 10
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Gross Profit 7 6 6 6
Margin (%) 42.8 41.2 39.3 39.6
EBITDA 5 4 4 4
YoY gr. (%) 89.4 75.2 1.0 (19.8)
Margin (%) 30.5 28.6 25.1 26.3
Depreciation / Depletion 1 1 1 1
EBIT 4 4 3 3
Margin (%) 26.3 24.2 20.2 21.8
Net Interest - - - -
Other Income - - - -
Profit before Tax 5 4 4 4
Margin (%) 28.9 27.1 22.8 24.1
Total Tax 1 1 1 1
Effective tax rate (%) 25.5 25.5 25.8 25.9
Profit after Tax 3 3 3 3
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associates - - - -
Adjusted PAT 3 3 3 3
YoY gr. (%) 106.4 84.3 (1.4) (22.8)
Margin (%) 21.5 20.2 16.9 17.9
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -
Reported PAT 3 3 3 3
YoY gr. (%) 106.4 84.3 (1.4) (22.8)
Margin (%) 21.5 20.2 16.9 17.9
Other Comprehensive Income - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 3 3 3 3
Avg. Shares O/s (bn) - - - -
EPS (Rs) 34.3 32.1 26.8 28.8
Source: Company Data, PL Research

July 29, 2024 4

 Mahanagar Gas
Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
1750
1 07-Jul-24 Sell 1,303 1,685
2 11-May-24 Sell 1,116 1,300
1482
3 09-Apr-24 Sell 1,125 1,485
1214
4 31-Mar-24 Sell 1,124 1,370
5 24-Jan-24 Reduce 1,124 1,345
946
6 08-Jan-24 Reduce 1,065 1,238
678 7 30-Oct-23 Hold 1,065 1,015
Jan - 22

Jan - 23

Jan - 24
Jul - 21

Jul - 22

Jul - 23

Jul - 24
8 06-Oct-23 Hold 1,056 1,114
9 04-Aug-23 Hold 1,056 1,056

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 Aarti Industries Reduce 634 718
2 Ashok Leyland Accumulate 249 230
3 Bajaj Auto Accumulate 10,326 9,718
4 Bharat Forge Hold 1,615 1,672
5 Bharat Petroleum Corporation Reduce 269 302
6 Bharti Airtel Accumulate 1,618 1,430
7 CEAT Accumulate 2,992 2,667
8 Clean Science and Technology Hold 1,489 1,482
9 Deepak Nitrite Reduce 2,268 2,677
10 Divgi Torqtransfer Systems Accumulate 831 742
11 Eicher Motors BUY 5,335 4,737
12 Endurance Technologies Hold 2,664 2,735
13 Exide Industries Hold 559 568
14 Fine Organic Industries Accumulate 5,685 5,337
15 GAIL (India) Sell 170 223
16 Gujarat Fluorochemicals Reduce 2,775 3,250
17 Gujarat Gas Accumulate 623 645
18 Gujarat State Petronet BUY 409 311
19 Hero Motocorp Accumulate 5,914 5,558
20 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Sell 280 332
21 Indian Oil Corporation Reduce 151 171
22 Indraprastha Gas Sell 374 522
23 Jubilant Ingrevia Hold 592 586
24 Laxmi Organic Industries Sell 206 264
25 Mahanagar Gas Sell 1,303 1,685
26 Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 3,250 2,881
27 Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Sell 135 218
28 Maruti Suzuki BUY 14,432 12,104
29 Navin Fluorine International Accumulate 3,883 3,659

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

July 29, 2024 5

 Mahanagar Gas

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Amnish
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July 29, 2024 DN: c=IN, st=Maharashtra,

2.5.4.20=21151ea12dd366d1ac370cb42343ee44b6e851c37bdbac5f
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Date: 2024.07.29 08:33:16 +05'30'